MUScoop

MUScoop => The Superbar => COVID-19 => Topic started by: Benny B on January 27, 2020, 01:21:53 PM

Title: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on January 27, 2020, 01:21:53 PM
I once knew a few ladies who regularly came down with Coronavirus, but at least they never got scurvy.


Honest question: Theoretically, does US Immigration/Customs maintain records of persons entering the US by country/city of origin?  If not, the airlines would have these records, and you would think they would be happy to turn these over to the CDC in the interest of a potential public health emergency.

So the question is, why wouldn't the CDC immediately deploy field personnel to be in contact with every person in the U.S. who has traveled to Wuhan (or any other hot spots in China) over the past 4-6 weeks?  I don't think we're talking 10's of thousands of people here, so logistically, they should have the resources to do so, and frankly, I don't think most people of sound mind would question the justification... any virologist will tell you that it's not nuclear weapons, guns, or Putin that poses the biggest risk to society.

I'm not saying sound the klaxons to round these people up or put them in quarantine immediately, but shouldn't the CDC at least be monitoring every one of these people for symptoms, keeping track of where else they've been and who they've contacted, etc.  It all seems very reactionary on the part of the CDC right now, and frankly, if this is SOP, if Coronavirus doesn't decimate the population, it's only a matter of time before Howie Mandel has the Earth all to himself.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on January 27, 2020, 02:43:37 PM
I once knew a few ladies who regularly came down with Coronavirus, but at least they never got scurvy.


Honest question: Theoretically, does US Immigration/Customs maintain records of persons entering the US by country/city of origin?  If not, the airlines would have these records, and you would think they would be happy to turn these over to the CDC in the interest of a potential public health emergency.

So the question is, why wouldn't the CDC immediately deploy field personnel to be in contact with every person in the U.S. who has traveled to Wuhan (or any other hot spots in China) over the past 4-6 weeks?  I don't think we're talking 10's of thousands of people here, so logistically, they should have the resources to do so, and frankly, I don't think most people of sound mind would question the justification... any virologist will tell you that it's not nuclear weapons, guns, or Putin that poses the biggest risk to society.

I'm not saying sound the klaxons to round these people up or put them in quarantine immediately, but shouldn't the CDC at least be monitoring every one of these people for symptoms, keeping track of where else they've been and who they've contacted, etc.  It all seems very reactionary on the part of the CDC right now, and frankly, if this is SOP, if Coronavirus doesn't decimate the population, it's only a matter of time before Howie Mandel has the Earth all to himself.

I'm hearing about this through a somewhat interesting channel because Purdue has several thousand students from China, many of who were home for the Holidays. They've been communicating with students about this, and have said they will immediately isolate anyone who shows up at the health center with symptoms who had been in China.  While nobody wants to induce panic or stigmatize anyone, it would seem that a more proactive approach along the lines you described would be appropriate:  find out if any students were in any of the "hot spots" and isolate them even if they are asymptomatic.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: tower912 on January 27, 2020, 02:44:26 PM
Treat it with a lime virus.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: lawdog77 on January 27, 2020, 03:41:41 PM
Treat it with a lime virus.
i was thinking eat some nachos
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on January 27, 2020, 04:12:35 PM
C'mon guys. Let us at least have a few moments to enjoy our panic.

I'm still in my bunker to protect myself from the birds (flu) and the bees (killers).
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on January 27, 2020, 04:57:17 PM
I'll tell you what I know....

The CDC is very good at what they do.  Most of that is in coordination with state level Public Heath departments.  You won't hear much about either doing anything.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on January 27, 2020, 05:47:30 PM
Yeah, if you want doom, I don't think the Coronavirus is going to cut it.


(https://i.redd.it/3gc9lhqizbd41.jpg)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on January 27, 2020, 05:55:44 PM
Yeah, if you want doom, I don't think the Coronavirus is going to cut it.


(https://i.redd.it/3gc9lhqizbd41.jpg)

Wow. Didn’t realize that Bird Flu is that deadly.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on January 27, 2020, 06:09:43 PM
I once knew a few ladies who regularly came down with Coronavirus, but at least they never got scurvy.


Honest question: Theoretically, does US Immigration/Customs maintain records of persons entering the US by country/city of origin?  If not, the airlines would have these records, and you would think they would be happy to turn these over to the CDC in the interest of a potential public health emergency.

So the question is, why wouldn't the CDC immediately deploy field personnel to be in contact with every person in the U.S. who has traveled to Wuhan (or any other hot spots in China) over the past 4-6 weeks?  I don't think we're talking 10's of thousands of people here, so logistically, they should have the resources to do so, and frankly, I don't think most people of sound mind would question the justification... any virologist will tell you that it's not nuclear weapons, guns, or Putin that poses the biggest risk to society.

I'm not saying sound the klaxons to round these people up or put them in quarantine immediately, but shouldn't the CDC at least be monitoring every one of these people for symptoms, keeping track of where else they've been and who they've contacted, etc.  It all seems very reactionary on the part of the CDC right now, and frankly, if this is SOP, if Coronavirus doesn't decimate the population, it's only a matter of time before Howie Mandel has the Earth all to himself.

I would be extremely impressed if the CDC had the resources/personnel to perform this action.

I can't say I've actually looked at budgets or employment numbers, but it sure appears as though we, as a federal government, are lessening resources toward science/regulatory agencies.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on January 27, 2020, 06:11:50 PM
Yeah, if you want doom, I don't think the Coronavirus is going to cut it.


I've been thinking about this a lot when reading the number of confirmed cases vs deaths. Its reassuring. At the same time though, isn't the fatality rate sufficient to throw a real kink into modern society suprisingly low? I tried searching for an article I read awhile back about this, and couldn't find it, but I thought I read that widespread transmission combined with death rates in the low-mid single digits could effectively shut down society as we know it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on January 27, 2020, 06:13:10 PM
I've been thinking about this a lot when reading the number of confirmed cases vs deaths. Its reassuring. At the same time though, isn't the fatality rate sufficient to throw a real kink into modern society suprisingly low? I tried searching for an article I read awhile back about this, and couldn't find it, but I thought I read that widespread transmission combined with death rates in the low-mid single digits could effectively shut down society as we know it.

Plus, do you think China is releasing truthful numbers?

When the virus was first becoming obvious to the public, their response was to silence any reports.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on January 27, 2020, 06:20:32 PM
Plus, do you think China is releasing truthful numbers?

When the virus was first becoming obvious to the public, their response was to silence any reports.

Yeah, it will be really interesting to see what happens with the death rates related to cases outside of China.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on January 27, 2020, 09:21:52 PM
I tend to not get overly concerned about these things. My advice to my daughter at Purdue: “Wash your hands a lot and don’t make out with anyone who was recently in China.”

Last year 57000 people in this country died from the flu. I’d venture a guess that this virus - as bad as it seems to be - will not even remotely approach that. People should wash their hands. That’s good advice even when there is not some scary new virus from China that is unlikely to even infect as many people in the USA as die every year from the flu.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 27, 2020, 09:35:43 PM
Yeah, if you want doom, I don't think the Coronavirus is going to cut it.


(https://i.redd.it/3gc9lhqizbd41.jpg)

Cool graphic if you believe the reports out of China.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on January 27, 2020, 09:50:19 PM
Yeah, if you want doom, I don't think the Coronavirus is going to cut it.


(https://i.redd.it/3gc9lhqizbd41.jpg)

A virus that has been known only for a matter of weeks on a chart alongside diseases that have been studied for decades.  Yeah... I see nothing wrong there. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on January 27, 2020, 09:54:00 PM
Yeah, if you want doom, I don't think the Coronavirus is going to cut it.


(https://i.redd.it/3gc9lhqizbd41.jpg)

As I look at that, I’m reminded of something I didn’t know until just a few years ago: rabies is some serious sh*t. If you’re symptomatic, you’re gonna die. I never realized.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: WarriorFan on January 27, 2020, 09:57:32 PM
Based on the way China works, if they're reporting anything the real numbers are 10-100x what's being reported. 
Slow incubation period makes it harder to catch.

The difference, however, is in quality of medical care.  In China, a far higher percentage will die than in other countries where there is quality medical care available.  Based on reports from Singapore, which is already reacting strongly despite their small quantity of 5 cases, early detection and quality care make the virus survivable.

Also, it's hard to understand the level of filth and bacteria that exist in the central markets of chinese cities.  The people that work there would live in housing that doesn't even have warm water.  1-2 showers per winter would be a lot.  They don't change clothes.  It's really a breeding ground.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 27, 2020, 10:15:52 PM
As I look at that, I’m reminded of something I didn’t know until just a few years ago: rabies is some serious sh*t. If you’re symptomatic, you’re gonna die. I never realized.

Yeah I think there is ONE survivor... fairly recent and her life is a total mess because of the rabies.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU82 on January 27, 2020, 10:19:35 PM
I tend to not get overly concerned about these things. My advice to my daughter at Purdue: “Wash your hands a lot and don’t make out with anyone who was recently in China.”

What if he (or she) is a crazy, rich Asian?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 27, 2020, 10:30:38 PM
What if he (or she) is a crazy, rich Asian?
(https://media.giphy.com/media/VGoZVlR9naOZCiRLSy/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on January 28, 2020, 08:30:24 AM
Yeah I think there is ONE survivor... fairly recent and her life is a total mess because of the rabies.

I learned about rabies several years ago from a good friend.  He and his family had been on vacation at a lake house and awoke in the morning to find a bat in the house.  All the bedrooms were open.  They didn't catch the bat for testing.  Even though nobody had any particular reason to believe they had been bitten, scratched, etc., the medical recommendation was that all six of them receive the vaccine. It wasn't mandatory, but he was ultimately persuaded when the doctor told him, "If if was my family, I'd do it" because if symptoms develop, it's too late.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: cheebs09 on January 28, 2020, 09:04:04 AM
Yeah I think there is ONE survivor... fairly recent and her life is a total mess because of the rabies.

There are some organizations doing great work to help.

(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0250/1217/4900/products/download-1_620x.jpg?v=1572164335)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sir Lawrence on January 28, 2020, 09:48:50 AM
Yeah I think there is ONE survivor... fairly recent and her life is a total mess because of the rabies.

Not quite a total mess.  She went through hell and back during her recovery, but is doing fairly well now:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/health/2016/03/29/motherhood-is-latest-milestone-for-woman-who-survived-rabies/84941662/

The odd thing about how she was bitten:  taking a bat out of church to "save" it.  Parents, don't let your daughters grow up to be bat rescuers!
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on January 28, 2020, 09:55:36 AM
Not quite a total mess.  She went through hell and back during her recovery, but is doing fairly well now:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/health/2016/03/29/motherhood-is-latest-milestone-for-woman-who-survived-rabies/84941662/

The odd thing about how she was bitten:  taking a bat out of church to "save" it.  Parents, don't let your daughters grow up to be bat rescuers!

Thank you for posting that.  I see from that article that there are now 10 survivors.  So, it's still pretty dire, but it looks like treatment is developing.  I hadn't realized that there was a Milwaukee connection.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on January 28, 2020, 11:58:16 AM
I learned about rabies several years ago from a good friend.  He and his family had been on vacation at a lake house and awoke in the morning to find a bat in the house.  All the bedrooms were open.  They didn't catch the bat for testing.  Even though nobody had any particular reason to believe they had been bitten, scratched, etc., the medical recommendation was that all six of them receive the vaccine. It wasn't mandatory, but he was ultimately persuaded when the doctor told him, "If if was my family, I'd do it" because if symptoms develop, it's too late.

Exact same thing happened at a co-worker's home a few years back.  What was most surprising is he showed us the hospital bill: a cool quarter-mil for his family of five ($50k each).  Initially, I thought that was stupid and a waste of money considering that a fraction of 1 percent of all bats have rabies (there are statistics where the percentage is greater, perhaps as high as 10%, but these are percentages of weak or sick bats targeted for testing).  But in the remote chance you were exposed, death is virtually assured.  So it's pretty much exactly what health insurance is for.

Evidently the "post-incident" prophylaxis is a completely different formula than the typical vaccinations animals receive and has an extremely short shelf life.  Either that or Martin Shkreli must own the company that produces it.

Moral of story: If you find a bat in your home... DON'T LET IT ESCAPE.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on January 28, 2020, 02:04:23 PM
I went through the rabies protocol after the Bradley Bat game. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Pakuni on January 28, 2020, 02:54:34 PM
Miami of Ohio postpones two basketball games over concerns two students may have coronavirus.

https://www.si.com/college/2020/01/28/miami-ohio-basketball-games-canceled-coronavirus?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&xid=socialflow_twitter_si&utm_campaign=sinow
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on January 28, 2020, 04:34:12 PM
Not Coronavirus, but before my Asia trip and mostly related to India I got vaccines for:
Japanese Encephalitis
Typhoid
Cholera
a Polio booster
a MMR booster
Rabies
and the latest flu vaccine.

Work was paying and I wasn't going to mess around.

 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on January 28, 2020, 06:47:32 PM
IMO, the Chinese government is hiding something or overreacting. Thus far not even close to being as deadly as SARS, yet they sounded the alarm. There is more to this story to come, I believe. Something does not add to me.

I traveled throughout the SARS outbreak and few clients get rattled. I fielded a dozen calls today from nervous clients. China was rocked by trade war and causing alarm has caught my attention. There is something fishy in this whole outbreak and believe it will cause serious short term supply chain issues.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on January 28, 2020, 06:56:03 PM
IMO, the Chinese government is hiding something or overreacting. Thus far not even close to being as deadly as SARS, yet they sounded the alarm. There is more to this story to come, I believe. Something does not add to me.

I traveled throughout the SARS outbreak and few clients get rattled. I fielded a dozen calls today from nervous clients. China was rocked by trade war and causing alarm has caught my attention. There is something fishy in this whole outbreak and believe it will cause serious short term supply chain issues.




Thanks Goose.  I was thinking that China's reaction doesn't seem to fit the circumstances.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on January 28, 2020, 07:07:37 PM
Fluff

I am torn on the response. I want to think it is their attempt to be transparent and behave like a first world country, but I am skeptical. I encourage anyone with an interest in world events to watch this closely.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on January 28, 2020, 10:16:34 PM
There is something fishy in this whole outbreak and believe it will cause serious short term supply chain issues.

Fishy or not, supply chain will be hurting.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on January 28, 2020, 11:57:51 PM
rocky

Do you have inside info on the situation? If so, please share. Have you heard about meaningful delays in CNY return? Are ports to open upon return? Will future domestic travel be further hindered? Any insight would be appreciated.

Unfortunately I will be up much of the night trying to get additional info for my clients. Based off your post, it sounds like you must know something.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on January 29, 2020, 01:45:59 AM
Based off your post, it sounds like you must know something.

Sorry goose, got on a flight right after my post.  Sorry to disappoint, I only know that you can't tell that many people to stay home and not affect production and productivity.

Good luck in your fact finding - sounds like information out of there is being heavily scrutinized.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on January 29, 2020, 06:01:30 AM
rocky

All good. Arby’s coupons for everyone!!!
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on January 29, 2020, 07:15:07 AM
IMO, the Chinese government is hiding something or overreacting. Thus far not even close to being as deadly as SARS, yet they sounded the alarm. There is more to this story to come, I believe. Something does not add to me.

I traveled throughout the SARS outbreak and few clients get rattled. I fielded a dozen calls today from nervous clients. China was rocked by trade war and causing alarm has caught my attention. There is something fishy in this whole outbreak and believe it will cause serious short term supply chain issues.

Goose, a big difference in this virus and SARS is that this virus is contagious during the incubation period (before symptoms show up), that incubation period is 14-days. So for 2-weeks infected individuals are walking around as infectious agents. On top of that, some reports are saying it is contagious on contact.

Those two combined, if true, make this very dangerous, even with lower fatality rates. Honestly, if you were to weaponize a virus, these are two of the traits you would want, the other, being a higher fatality rate. Fortunately, all three are not at play here, but there could be fear of mutations making it more deadly.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on January 29, 2020, 09:16:54 AM
My company's China plant is on Chinese New Year shut down and from what I understand the shut down has been extended to at least Feb 7.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on January 29, 2020, 09:36:31 AM
MU Fan

Where is your factory located? Most of the workers local or transplants from the north?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on January 29, 2020, 02:09:02 PM
MU Fan

Where is your factory located? Most of the workers local or transplants from the north?

Zhongshan right near Macau.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on January 29, 2020, 11:12:29 PM
Honestly, if you were to weaponize a virus, these are two of the traits you would want, the other, being a higher fatality rate. Fortunately, all three are not at play here, but there could be fear of mutations making it more deadly.

Interesting.  That might explain all the secrecy and misinformation early on. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 30, 2020, 04:46:33 AM
My company's China plant is on Chinese New Year shut down and from what I understand the shut down has been extended to at least Feb 7.

From what I have heard on NPR that seems to be somewhat typical.  I've also heard that this virus won't even reach peak infection rate until April.  So we have quite a bit of time to let it ride.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on January 30, 2020, 07:02:55 AM
Goose, a big difference in this virus and SARS is that this virus is contagious during the incubation period (before symptoms show up), that incubation period is 14-days. So for 2-weeks infected individuals are walking around as infectious agents. On top of that, some reports are saying it is contagious on contact.

Those two combined, if true, make this very dangerous, even with lower fatality rates. Honestly, if you were to weaponize a virus, these are two of the traits you would want, the other, being a higher fatality rate. Fortunately, all three are not at play here, but there could be fear of mutations making it more deadly.

I highlight that because, based upon what I've read, it's not clear yet that it is true that it can be spread before the patient is symptomatic. A Chinese official reported that, but others seem to question whether there is evidence to support the claim.  I know it's being reported in many corners as an established fact.  Let's hope it turns out to be incorrect.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 30, 2020, 07:33:26 AM
So first cases in India and Philippines... 81,000 suspected sick... reports of Chinese cremating dead before identifying them.

Still not concerned?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on January 30, 2020, 08:54:12 AM
So first cases in India and Philippines... 81,000 suspected sick... reports of Chinese cremating dead before identifying them.

Still not concerned?

I guess it depends on what you mean by "concerned".  I am concerned that a lot of people are getting sick and probably many will die.  To me, that's just a natural human concern. I am not particularly concerned that this virus will have a significant impact in the United States. So, if you're asking about the first of those, then yes, I am concerned. If you're asking about the second (which, in my opinion, is what a lot of people are asking), then no, I'm not concerned.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on January 30, 2020, 09:39:06 AM
I am quite concerned, both in regards to human life and economic impact. I mentioned a couple days of ago the possibility of the Chinese government not sharing all info on this virus and I believe that to be the case. I have been constant contact with our staff (over ten) on a daily basis and all the Chinese nationals continue to tell me this is not a big problem and the government has done a great job and everything under control. I work/communicate with these folks 365 days a year and know them well. IMO, they are blindly following the leader.  Our lead Guangzhou manager (Hong Kong native) has a much higher sense of concern. She is not someone that rattles easily and her response is much more of concern.

In regards to economic impact, a lot of very big decisions have been made over the past week over this virus that will have a real economic impact globally. Aside from supply chain disruptions, the response of airlines, border closing, visa restrictions indicate to me that someone has insider info. These decisions are not made lightly and I believe it is indicated that this virus is more severe than being reported.

I believe the upcoming weeks is going to be President Xi's biggest challenge to date. If this virus continues to gain steam there is the chance of social unrest. There is a shortage of medical supplies and cabin fever is setting in. We have seen the young people in Hong Kong rally in an attempt for a better HK and better life and at some point that was/is going to happen in China. Not sure if this could be the tipping point, but I believe there is real chance of it.

I make a living almost solely in China and am more concerned about the big picture fallout than my own business. FYI--I am quite concerned on how our business will navigate the upcoming weeks/months, but more confident in our ability to be nimble than this serious issue being contained.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Macallan 18 on January 30, 2020, 09:51:59 AM
Good thing Tony Romo is staffing the Corona hotline to assure people everything is fine.

A Disturbing Number of People Think Coronavirus Is Related to Corona Beer -
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qjdvvd/a-disturbing-number-of-people-think-coronavirus-is-related-to-corona-beer
 (https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qjdvvd/a-disturbing-number-of-people-think-coronavirus-is-related-to-corona-beer)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 30, 2020, 11:15:45 AM
I am quite concerned, both in regards to human life and economic impact. I mentioned a couple days of ago the possibility of the Chinese government not sharing all info on this virus and I believe that to be the case. I have been constant contact with our staff (over ten) on a daily basis and all the Chinese nationals continue to tell me this is not a big problem and the government has done a great job and everything under control. I work/communicate with these folks 365 days a year and know them well. IMO, they are blindly following the leader.  Our lead Guangzhou manager (Hong Kong native) has a much higher sense of concern. She is not someone that rattles easily and her response is much more of concern.

In regards to economic impact, a lot of very big decisions have been made over the past week over this virus that will have a real economic impact globally. Aside from supply chain disruptions, the response of airlines, border closing, visa restrictions indicate to me that someone has insider info. These decisions are not made lightly and I believe it is indicated that this virus is more severe than being reported.

I believe the upcoming weeks is going to be President Xi's biggest challenge to date. If this virus continues to gain steam there is the chance of social unrest. There is a shortage of medical supplies and cabin fever is setting in. We have seen the young people in Hong Kong rally in an attempt for a better HK and better life and at some point that was/is going to happen in China. Not sure if this could be the tipping point, but I believe there is real chance of it.

I make a living almost solely in China and am more concerned about the big picture fallout than my own business. FYI--I am quite concerned on how our business will navigate the upcoming weeks/months, but more confident in our ability to be nimble than this serious issue being contained.

This sort of stuff is what I meant with my comment.  Sure loss of life may be globally insignificant, but the financial losses may be felt for months. 

What's that famous saying?  Civilization is only nine meals away from anarchy?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Retire0 on January 30, 2020, 11:19:17 AM

What's that famous saying?  Civilization is only nine meals away from anarchy?

Yep, just past the Kwik Trip on the right.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jsglow on January 31, 2020, 08:12:21 AM
Guess you businessmen ain't going to China anytime soon.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU82 on January 31, 2020, 08:37:54 AM
I am quite concerned, both in regards to human life and economic impact. I mentioned a couple days of ago the possibility of the Chinese government not sharing all info on this virus and I believe that to be the case. I have been constant contact with our staff (over ten) on a daily basis and all the Chinese nationals continue to tell me this is not a big problem and the government has done a great job and everything under control. I work/communicate with these folks 365 days a year and know them well. IMO, they are blindly following the leader.  Our lead Guangzhou manager (Hong Kong native) has a much higher sense of concern. She is not someone that rattles easily and her response is much more of concern.

In regards to economic impact, a lot of very big decisions have been made over the past week over this virus that will have a real economic impact globally. Aside from supply chain disruptions, the response of airlines, border closing, visa restrictions indicate to me that someone has insider info. These decisions are not made lightly and I believe it is indicated that this virus is more severe than being reported.

I believe the upcoming weeks is going to be President Xi's biggest challenge to date. If this virus continues to gain steam there is the chance of social unrest. There is a shortage of medical supplies and cabin fever is setting in. We have seen the young people in Hong Kong rally in an attempt for a better HK and better life and at some point that was/is going to happen in China. Not sure if this could be the tipping point, but I believe there is real chance of it.

I make a living almost solely in China and am more concerned about the big picture fallout than my own business. FYI--I am quite concerned on how our business will navigate the upcoming weeks/months, but more confident in our ability to be nimble than this serious issue being contained.

Wow, that's intense, Goose.

I hope it ends up not being as bad as some fear, and that it doesn't disrupt your situation too much.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 31, 2020, 08:15:26 PM
Worldwide Tracker

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TallTitan34 on January 31, 2020, 10:08:04 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html

I feel like this information from US doctors is already more than anything from China to date.

10,000 already dead in the US so far this season from the regular flu by the way.  Yet no one cares about that.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 01, 2020, 12:19:12 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html

I feel like this information from US doctors is already more than anything from China to date.

10,000 already dead in the US so far this season from the regular flu by the way.  Yet no one cares about that.

I bet if you look at a cross-section of that 10,000, you’re going to see a shiite ton of candles on the birthday cakes and a whole slew of other complicating diseases... not a bunch of otherwise healthy 30 and 40-somethings. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TallTitan34 on February 01, 2020, 02:41:35 AM
I bet if you look at a cross-section of that 10,000, you’re going to see a shiite ton of candles on the birthday cakes and a whole slew of other complicating diseases... not a bunch of otherwise healthy 30 and 40-somethings.

Looking at US flu deaths from the 2017-18 flu season:
Age 0-4: 115
Age 5-17: 528
Age 18-49: 2,803
Age 50-64: 6,751
Age 65+: 50,903

I’m going to go out on a limb and say these numbers are higher for the regular flu in China.

So far the youngest (known) deaths with the coronavirus are a 36 year old and a 48 year old. Both of which are in China.

So far the fatality rate of the regular flu in the US is around 0.7%. The (known) fatality rate of the coronavirus in China is slightly over 2%.

I’m curious to see what the fatality rate outside China is with a larger sample size but I’m going to guess it will be lower than China’s and closer to that standard flu rate.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU82 on February 01, 2020, 07:56:13 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html

I feel like this information from US doctors is already more than anything from China to date.

10,000 already dead in the US so far this season from the regular flu by the way.  Yet no one cares about that.

My wife is a pediatric nurse and we were just talking about this yesterday.

Just this past week, a kid who had been perfectly healthy died from the flu. Not some fancy super-virus, but the flu. Amazing that could happen in 2020.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 01, 2020, 08:59:41 AM
Looking at US flu deaths from the 2017-18 flu season:
Age 0-4: 115
Age 5-17: 528
Age 18-49: 2,803
Age 50-64: 6,751
Age 65+: 50,903

I’m going to go out on a limb and say these numbers are higher for the regular flu in China.

So far the youngest (known) deaths with the coronavirus are a 36 year old and a 48 year old. Both of which are in China.

So far the fatality rate of the regular flu in the US is around 0.7%. The (known) fatality rate of the coronavirus in China is slightly over 2%.

I’m curious to see what the fatality rate outside China is with a larger sample size but I’m going to guess it will be lower than China’s and closer to that standard flu rate.

If governments with actual data thought the way you did there wouldn't be closed borders in the East, and airlines would still be flying to China.

Influenza is no joke, and neither is this.

The real of the situation is that  we don't know enough (collectively) about the Coronavirus to be taking anything but extreme caution.  Not to mention, the possibility of mutations, or the ability to possibly become reinfected.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 01, 2020, 09:11:04 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html)

(CNN)Doctors have shared new details about the first case of Wuhan coronavirus in the United States in a paper published Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine.
In the new report, doctors describe how the man progressed from initially mild, nonspecific symptoms to pneumonia on the ninth day of his illness.

Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms
'There's no doubt': Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms
The patient -- a 35-year-old resident of Snohomish County, Washington, with no history of major health problems -- had returned from visiting family in Wuhan on January 15. He had not visited the seafood market where a number of early patients were initially linked, nor did he have any known contacts with sick people during his visit.

Still, the man had seen a health alert by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and decided to visit an urgent care clinic on January 19, at which point he had been coughing for four days.


Emphasis mine.  The problem in the USA is that we have a culture of just fighting through illnesses and continuing to go to work or school.  We also have a culture of overreaction.  I hope people can moderate their behavior if there is an uptick in cases... and I suspect there will be.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 01, 2020, 09:58:56 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html)

(CNN)Doctors have shared new details about the first case of Wuhan coronavirus in the United States in a paper published Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine.
In the new report, doctors describe how the man progressed from initially mild, nonspecific symptoms to pneumonia on the ninth day of his illness.

Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms
'There's no doubt': Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms
The patient -- a 35-year-old resident of Snohomish County, Washington, with no history of major health problems -- had returned from visiting family in Wuhan on January 15. He had not visited the seafood market where a number of early patients were initially linked, nor did he have any known contacts with sick people during his visit.

Still, the man had seen a health alert by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and decided to visit an urgent care clinic on January 19, at which point he had been coughing for four days.


Emphasis mine.  The problem in the USA is that we have a culture of just fighting through illnesses and continuing to go to work or school.  We also have a culture of overreaction.  I hope people can moderate their behavior if there is an uptick in cases... and I suspect there will be.

We also have a culture where a trip to the doctor or ER will bankrupt you, so many will avoid any treatment. They will also attend work/school, because many can be fired for missing work once. That means if this starts to spread in the US, it could get ugly quick.

Also note, that the case in the NEJM article, the young individual survived, but only with over a weak in an ICU. If we have 10's of thousands infected, we cannot handle that kind of case load with an ICU level care.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on February 01, 2020, 10:09:38 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-doctors-released-chest-x-012400585.html

Acting more like SARS and MERS. Pneumonia is the real threat it looks like.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on February 01, 2020, 10:20:55 AM
If governments with actual data thought the way you did there wouldn't be closed borders in the East, and airlines would still be flying to China.

Influenza is no joke
, and neither is this.

The real of the situation is that  we don't know enough (collectively) about the Coronavirus to be taking anything but extreme caution.  Not to mention, the possibility of mutations, or the ability to possibly become reinfected.

BS. Fear-mongering at its finest. I bet you vaccinate too.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 01, 2020, 11:07:38 AM
BS. Fear-mongering at its finest. I bet you vaccinate too.

Having a hard time determining whether this is sarcasm or not.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: tower912 on February 01, 2020, 11:08:29 AM
It is clearly sarcasm
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 01, 2020, 11:21:56 AM
BS. Fear-mongering at its finest. I bet you vaccinate too.

I don't vaccinate for myself, I vaccinate for others.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html)

Tower seems to think you're being sarcastic, but I can't tell.  There are a lot of people that think that when they are "sick" it is the flu.  When it really should be referred to as a cold. 

If you've been sick for a day or been feeling 'bad' for a couple of days, that isn't influenza.  And honestly, confusing the common cold with influenza is something we need to change in the US.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: SERocks on February 01, 2020, 12:16:28 PM
This.

We also have a culture where a trip to the doctor or ER will bankrupt you, so many will avoid any treatment. They will also attend work/school, because many can be fired for missing work once.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 01, 2020, 06:28:25 PM
It is clearly sarcasm

I was 95% sure it was, did not seem like jesmu84, but sadly these days you can't be 100% certain regarding statements like that.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 01, 2020, 10:52:29 PM
I don't vaccinate for myself, I vaccinate for others.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html)

Tower seems to think you're being sarcastic, but I can't tell.  There are a lot of people that think that when they are "sick" it is the flu.  When it really should be referred to as a cold

If you've been sick for a day or been feeling 'bad' for a couple of days, that isn't influenza.  And honestly, confusing the common cold with influenza is something we need to change in the US.

This.  OMG, This.  I can’t tell you how many people I know who toss around the word ‘flu’ as a catch-all term like southerners do with “Coke”. 

The flu is influenza.  Not a cold, not PMS, not the sniffles, not a stomach bug.  (That’s right... the stomach flu is not influenza.)

I blame whoever came up with that Thera-Flu crap. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 02, 2020, 02:49:27 AM
My wife is a pediatric nurse and we were just talking about this yesterday.

Just this past week, a kid who had been perfectly healthy died from the flu. Not some fancy super-virus, but the flu. Amazing that could happen in 2020.

End of the day not all drugs works for all people, and people do die....whether 2020 or 2050 there will still be deaths by people of common diseases.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on February 02, 2020, 07:15:49 AM
This.  OMG, This.  I can’t tell you how many people I know who toss around the word ‘flu’ as a catch-all term like southerners do with “Coke”. 

The flu is influenza.  Not a cold, not PMS, not the sniffles, not a stomach bug.  (That’s right... the stomach flu is not influenza.)

I blame whoever came up with that Thera-Flu crap. 


I probably miss a day a year because of a cough and a fever.  That's not the flu.

Last time I had the flu (about 8 years ago), I missed a week of work and slept the entire weekend after because i was so weak.  That's the last time I skipped a flu shot.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: 4everwarriors on February 02, 2020, 07:18:50 AM
This.  OMG, This.  I can’t tell you how many people I know who toss around the word ‘flu’ as a catch-all term like southerners do with “Coke”. 

The flu is influenza.  Not a cold, not PMS, not the sniffles, not a stomach bug.  (That’s right... the stomach flu is not influenza.)

I blame whoever came up with that Thera-Flu crap.




Eye blame Crean, hey?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Retire0 on February 02, 2020, 07:55:36 AM
Can I get a ruling on Fireball Flu? Is that influenza?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 02, 2020, 08:09:17 AM
This is a really interesting post on the statistics, from someone inside the field studying this coronavirus..

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/exe552/coronavirus_faq_misconceptions_information_from_a/
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: reinko on February 02, 2020, 01:48:20 PM
Some posters favorite Twitter account news source got banned for doxxing a Chinese scientist and spreading misinformation on the coronavirus.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on February 03, 2020, 08:04:52 AM
Just got off my weekly corporate sales call. 
The Zhongshan Plant Manager said everywhere in China is a ghost town.
Chinese police have road blocks everywhere to take temperatures and to find out where people are coming from / going to for those who venture outside.
Food delivery boys are keeping the country fed.  They are delivering non-stop to people.
Factories cannot reopen without government permission.  Those that do are fined heavily.
The Chinese government has an App where you can see where cases have been confirmed.  Plant Manager was surprised to see 8 cases within 1 suare kilometer of him in Guangzhou. 
He thinks factories will not reopen until Feb. 17.
Ports are closed and he suspects there is a backlog of freighters in the waters around Chinese ports.
Guangdong Province is closed.  They are not letting anyone in from outside until all is contained.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 03, 2020, 09:58:28 AM
This is a really interesting post on the statistics, from someone inside the field studying this coronavirus..

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/exe552/coronavirus_faq_misconceptions_information_from_a/

Perhaps the most significant takeaway from this is that the lag in the data being reported.  While there may not be a cover-up per se, reporting illnesses and confirming deaths from an illness does not happen in real time.  Frankly, it's damn near impossible to say how many people are infected and how many have died as of this very moment.

Fortunately, since the OP, it looks like the authorities have been taking appropriate measures to contain; unfortunately, I don't think China has seen the worst of it yet.  Let's hope China has this contained in Huabei province... last thing anyone needs is another hotspot popping up.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: SERocks on February 04, 2020, 08:18:54 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51364382?fbclid=IwAR0IchA6FA-SUwqUpHkmMDleeLcYNnO0mtopDCfgu2wIoiAU_Z8uttg0QWA
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: tower912 on February 04, 2020, 08:40:32 AM
For me, this brings to mind the discussion a few years ago about electric cars.   Part of that was about driverless, shareable cars in urban areas.   Get into an autonomous pod, ride a couple of miles, get out, somebody else uses the autonomous pod.

  Who cleans the autonomous pods?   Same problem with taking public transportation of any kind.    Just like you don't know if the person standing next to you on the El has the latest virus, how will you know if a previous pod user had the coronavirus, or whatever the latest crisis bug du jour is?   
   China is shutting down public transportation.   Would the same have to happen to the autonomous pods?

Just something to mull over as we go through this pandemic and await the next.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 04, 2020, 08:45:30 AM
For me, this brings to mind the discussion a few years ago about electric cars.   Part of that was about driverless, shareable cars in urban areas.   Get into an autonomous pod, ride a couple of miles, get out, somebody else uses the autonomous pod.

  Who cleans the autonomous pods?   Same problem with taking public transportation of any kind.    Just like you don't know if the person standing next to you on the El has the latest virus, how will you know if a previous pod user had the coronavirus, or whatever the latest crisis bug du jour is?   
   China is shutting down public transportation.   Would the same have to happen to the autonomous pods?

Just something to mull over as we go through this pandemic and await the next.

Yup.  I made that same argument here.  Especially when the car isn’t yours, people will shat all over it like they do busses, trains, etc.   
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 04, 2020, 08:55:54 AM
  Who cleans the autonomous pods?  Would the same have to happen to the autonomous pods?


All transportation vehicles are cleaned by the same group: the owners.    Not sure how that's a mystery.   These "pods" will need maintenance, and the owners will do that.   They'll be "just as" clean as buses and subways.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: tower912 on February 04, 2020, 08:57:40 AM
That isn't comforting.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 04, 2020, 09:29:49 AM
That isn't comforting.

It should be.  More than likely, these shared cars will be made of easily cleanable materials... like the subway is.  Plus, you know there will be a rating system much like Uber, and one of the parts will be cleanliness.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 04, 2020, 01:28:18 PM
For me, this brings to mind the discussion a few years ago about electric cars.   Part of that was about driverless, shareable cars in urban areas.   Get into an autonomous pod, ride a couple of miles, get out, somebody else uses the autonomous pod.

  Who cleans the autonomous pods?   Same problem with taking public transportation of any kind.    Just like you don't know if the person standing next to you on the El has the latest virus, how will you know if a previous pod user had the coronavirus, or whatever the latest crisis bug du jour is?   
   China is shutting down public transportation.   Would the same have to happen to the autonomous pods?

Just something to mull over as we go through this pandemic and await the next.

Simple solution, make all autonomous pods equipped with UV-lighting. After each ride, each pod can be sterilized by running the UV lighting for 10 minutes. Hurts throughput a bit, but no worries about disease.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: tower912 on February 04, 2020, 01:44:56 PM
I like it.   The price in each unit just went up.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on February 04, 2020, 03:36:19 PM
It should be.  More than likely, these shared cars will be made of easily cleanable materials... like the subway is.  Plus, you know there will be a rating system much like Uber, and one of the parts will be cleanliness.

Yeah, the subway.  The bastion of cleanliness and freedom from germs.    :o ::) :o ::) :o ::)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 04, 2020, 05:43:32 PM
Yeah, the subway.  The bastion of cleanliness and freedom from germs.    :o ::) :o ::) :o ::)

Ha, yes.  But it is technically easy to clean.  :P
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 06, 2020, 08:14:12 PM
Reports that over 2,000 in India are now infected.

Report came out of the blue. 

This is going to get much worse before it gets better.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 06, 2020, 09:00:41 PM
Reports that over 2,000 in India are now infected.

Report came out of the blue. 

This is going to get much worse before it gets better.

Tried to find a link for that .. source?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on February 06, 2020, 11:55:10 PM
The doctor who made this public in China has died from the disease - a 34-year old healthy man.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 07, 2020, 04:34:58 AM
Tried to find a link for that .. source?

Sorry, I should have written 'suspected'.

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/general-news/2826-suspected-coronavirus-cases-being-monitored-in-kerala-says-health-minister20200206223440/ (https://www.aninews.in/news/national/general-news/2826-suspected-coronavirus-cases-being-monitored-in-kerala-says-health-minister20200206223440/)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on February 07, 2020, 06:36:32 AM
Very anxious to see how much movement is made on getting people back to their work locations. Work is set to begin on Monday and millions, in theory, should be on their way or getting ready to travel and this will be a nervous time in China. I have been under the belief that is a far more serious issue and still feel that way.
Aside from lives, which is the sad part, potential economic fallout could be staggering. I believe the stock market has completely discounted a potentially very, very, very big Black Swan.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 07, 2020, 06:58:07 AM
Ha, yes.  But it is technically easy to clean.  :P


Just like the streets of SF, Seattle, LA, well basically most major cities of california, NYC, Austin, tx, etc. these areas have become Petri dishes of disease that we had once eradicated.  Everyone, including the so called environmentalists should be appalled at the amount of waste being washed into our waterways and or spread through the air, on our shoes, etc.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on February 07, 2020, 08:19:17 AM
Sorry, I should have written 'suspected'.

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/general-news/2826-suspected-coronavirus-cases-being-monitored-in-kerala-says-health-minister20200206223440/ (https://www.aninews.in/news/national/general-news/2826-suspected-coronavirus-cases-being-monitored-in-kerala-says-health-minister20200206223440/)

“Service Error”
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 07, 2020, 08:57:53 AM
“Service Error”

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/third-coronavirus-case-reported-from-india/articleshow/73895001.cms

3 confirmed, about 2000 under observation.  I've seen that number as high as 2800
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 07, 2020, 09:00:54 AM

Just like the streets of SF, Seattle, LA, well basically most major cities of california, NYC, Austin, tx, etc. these areas have become Petri dishes of disease that we had once eradicated.  Everyone, including the so called environmentalists should be appalled at the amount of waste being washed into our waterways and or spread through the air, on our shoes, etc.

Yup, we have diseases in Los Angeles and San Francisco now that were largely unseen for decades.....progress has a way of bringing things back sometimes.  A glorious time to be alive in California.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on February 07, 2020, 09:52:06 AM

Just like the streets of SF, Seattle, LA, well basically most major cities of california, NYC, Austin, tx, etc. these areas have become Petri dishes of disease that we had once eradicated.  Everyone, including the so called environmentalists should be appalled at the amount of waste being washed into our waterways and or spread through the air, on our shoes, etc.

Rorschach?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on February 07, 2020, 09:54:23 AM

Just like the streets of SF, Seattle, LA, well basically most major cities of california, NYC, Austin, tx, etc. these areas have become Petri dishes of disease that we had once eradicated.  Everyone, including the so called environmentalists should be appalled at the amount of waste being washed into our waterways and or spread through the air, on our shoes, etc.

I'd be interested on hearing why you think this is occurring more lately
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU82 on February 07, 2020, 09:55:18 AM
It's all that swishing and spitting at dental offices, dammit!
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 07, 2020, 10:34:30 AM
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/third-coronavirus-case-reported-from-india/articleshow/73895001.cms

3 confirmed, about 2000 under observation.  I've seen that number as high as 2800

Just saw something saying that Kerala is walking back the numbers.  So that's great news.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 07, 2020, 10:36:53 AM
Very anxious to see how much movement is made on getting people back to their work locations. Work is set to begin on Monday and millions, in theory, should be on their way or getting ready to travel and this will be a nervous time in China. I have been under the belief that is a far more serious issue and still feel that way.
Aside from lives, which is the sad part, potential economic fallout could be staggering. I believe the stock market has completely discounted a potentially very, very, very big Black Swan.

Absolutely.  I have serious doubts that people head back to work next week if they are in the affected zones.  The economic impact could be felt for some time depending on when this clears up.  SARS created a big dip, but had a quick recovery.  I'm not so sure the same will happen this time around.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on February 07, 2020, 12:04:15 PM
Rorschach?

Just the trolls way of injecting politics - railing against "liberal" cities.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on February 07, 2020, 12:57:03 PM
Just the trolls way of injecting politics - railing against "liberal" cities.

There are a lot of "liberal" cities in this country that dont have poop squads, needle squads, and all the other nastiness that SF has. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jficke13 on February 07, 2020, 02:17:06 PM
By chance "The Great Influenza" came across my Audible this week, about 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Fascinating stuff about how that flu originated, spread, and burned through a society very poorly equipped to deal with it.

A lot of relevant information there.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 07, 2020, 03:10:08 PM
I'd be interested on hearing why you think this is occurring more lately

i think some things are best kept to oneself cuz i don't see that as ending well.  let's just say we could use some improvement and allow some decency back in public circles...is it too much to ask not to pee and poop in the streets? 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 07, 2020, 03:17:04 PM
Just the trolls way of injecting politics - railing against "liberal" cities.

another swing and a miss...nasty lil secret kickstand, i'd be railing against any city regardless of who is running it, if i have to throw my shoes out after a "walk in the park".  would you take your dog for a walk in that cesspool?  then bring him back into your house, let him jump onto your bed and lick your face?  that's if he doesn't end up with a needle stuck in his paw >:( 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on February 07, 2020, 03:19:58 PM
another swing and a miss...nasty lil secret kickstand, i'd be railing against any city regardless of who is running it, if i have to throw my shoes out after a "walk in the park".  would you take your dog for a walk in that cesspool?  then bring him back into your house, let him jump onto your bed and lick your face?  that's if he doesn't end up with a needle stuck in his paw >:( 


I have walked around plenty of times in Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles, and would have no problem walking my dog in any of them.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: tower912 on February 07, 2020, 03:22:08 PM
another swing and a miss...nasty lil secret kickstand, i'd be railing against any city regardless of who is running it, if i have to throw my shoes out after a "walk in the park".  would you take your dog for a walk in that cesspool?  then bring him back into your house, let him jump onto your bed and lick your face?  that's if he doesn't end up with a needle stuck in his paw >:(

Dogs like their own butt and genitals and then lick your face.   Every single day.    If you run them in dog parks, they are prancing in other dogs' poop.   Every single day.    Rolls in other dogs' poop.   Every chance they get.   
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on February 07, 2020, 03:33:31 PM
another swing and a miss...nasty lil secret kickstand, i'd be railing against any city regardless of who is running it, if i have to throw my shoes out after a "walk in the park".  would you take your dog for a walk in that cesspool?  then bring him back into your house, let him jump onto your bed and lick your face?  that's if he doesn't end up with a needle stuck in his paw >:(

Meanwhile in rural Wisconsin...

https://www.wbay.com/content/news/Sheboygan-County-Landowners-Pledge-Support-to-CWD-Response-Plan-567629721.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 07, 2020, 04:01:12 PM
The cruise ships being quarantined .. that's brutal.   The infected numbers are going up even though the passengers are semi-locked away in their rooms.    Possible culprit?  The HVAC systems are not separate.   14 days is not going to do it.   You'd need +14 days past the last infection, with the clock constantly being reset.

Well, I'm sure this will all be squared away before I get on my cruise for spring break.   :-\
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 07, 2020, 07:19:37 PM
Just the trolls way of injecting politics - railing against "liberal" cities.

Incorrect.  I love many cities that are run by all sorts of folks on the ideological spectrum.  You know it is bad out here when they are losing support from many of their own constituents to do something about the mess created.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 07, 2020, 07:33:55 PM
The cruise ships being quarantined .. that's brutal.   The infected numbers are going up even though the passengers are semi-locked away in their rooms.    Possible culprit?  The HVAC systems are not separate.   14 days is not going to do it.   You'd need +14 days past the last infection, with the clock constantly being reset.

Well, I'm sure this will all be squared away before I get on my cruise for spring break.   :-\

Ah, so you're assuming your cruise ship line will still be in business!!
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on February 07, 2020, 07:37:10 PM
By chance "The Great Influenza" came across my Audible this week, about 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Fascinating stuff about how that flu originated, spread, and burned through a society very poorly equipped to deal with it.

A lot of relevant information there.

It's especially interesting in how it spread so quickly back when the movement of people moved from place to place took so much longer.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on February 07, 2020, 07:57:13 PM
It's especially interesting in how it spread so quickly back when the movement of people moved from place to place took so much longer.

On the reverse, it’s a much smaller world in terms of germ pool immunity and of course vaccinations.

Think back to how indigenous people were wiped out when the Europeans showed up with never before been seen diseases in their native lands. They were wiped out quickly...much more than the armies. Many of these new strains today are from China which had been closed for so long.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 07, 2020, 08:55:25 PM
There are a lot of "liberal" cities in this country that dont have poop squads, needle squads, and all the other nastiness that SF has.

There is literally an app for it....that's how horrendous it is....snapcrap


https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/a3xdae/more-people-pooping-in-san-francisco-than-ever-all-time-high-vgtrn
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 07, 2020, 10:04:54 PM
  little league player slides into hypodermic needle. betcha it was one of those "freebies" eyn'a?

  "Atrisco Valley Little League president Hector Aguilar said earlier this month an 11-year-old girl was practicing base sliding when a hypodermic needle pierced her foot"

https://www.sltrib.com/news/nation-world/2019/05/20/new-mexico-little-league/
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 08, 2020, 08:47:21 AM
China stops Foxconn's plan to resume production on Feb 10 on coronavirus worries: Nikkei

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-foxconn-idUSKBN2020BC?utm_source=reddit.com (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-foxconn-idUSKBN2020BC?utm_source=reddit.com)

Gartner: Prepare pandemic planning around 25% absenteeism

https://searchhrsoftware.techtarget.com/news/252478113/Gartner-Prepare-pandemic-planning-around-25-absenteeism (https://searchhrsoftware.techtarget.com/news/252478113/Gartner-Prepare-pandemic-planning-around-25-absenteeism)

Chinese Car Factories Idled by Virus Raise Risks to Global Growth

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/business/coronavirus-china-auto-factories.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/business/coronavirus-china-auto-factories.html)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 09, 2020, 10:15:50 PM
Seems like Beijing is going into quarantine mode.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 09, 2020, 10:43:44 PM
For those that think many are over-reacting. The general problem with this virus is it is very contagious. If it becomes any more widely spread, it is likely to become endemic in the human population. That would mean in addition to seasonal flus, we'd have a seasonal wuhan-virus killing 1-2% of the population.

What people are referring to as over-reactions may be the only way to avoid this becoming endemic.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 09, 2020, 10:50:46 PM
For those that think many are over-reacting. The general problem with this virus is it is very contagious. If it becomes any more widely spread, it is likely to become endemic in the human population. That would mean in addition to seasonal flus, we'd have a seasonal wuhan-virus killing 1-2% of the population.

What people are referring to as over-reactions may be the only way to avoid this becoming endemic.

Looks like maybe we should issue more travel bans
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Billy Hoyle on February 10, 2020, 12:31:51 AM
There are a lot of "liberal" cities in this country that dont have poop squads, needle squads, and all the other nastiness that SF has.

My assistant and I, for the past five years, have done a San Fran beer day hitting different breweries (Cellarmaker, Local, 21st Amendment among them).  One year we walked 7.5 miles, including through the Mission District (Pacific Standard).  Not one sign of this anywhere on our jaunts. My city is said by Fox News to be similar, yet the only Ive seen while walking or running is from dogs. Ran 9 miles today through the city, shoes are clean. The claims are pretty much crap.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 10, 2020, 02:06:49 AM
My assistant and I, for the past five years, have done a San Fran beer day hitting different breweries (Cellarmaker, Local, 21st Amendment among them).  One year we walked 7.5 miles, including through the Mission District (Pacific Standard).  Not one sign of this anywhere on our jaunts. My city is said by Fox News to be similar, yet the only Ive seen while walking or running is from dogs. Ran 9 miles today through the city, shoes are clean. The claims are pretty much crap.

Billy....I get up there to SF all the time...it is bad.  LA, pretty much every week....really bad.  There are plenty of sources not named Fox News that have it documented...LA Times being one of them.


25000 incidents last year per SF Public Works Dept....not a bunch of crap....well actually...a whole lotta crap.


"I will say there is more feces on the sidewalks than I've ever seen growing up here," San Francisco Mayor London Breed told NBC in a 2018 interview. "That is a huge problem, and we are not just talking about from dogs — we're talking about from humans."

https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-human-poop-problem-2019-4
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 10, 2020, 05:36:07 AM
Billy....I get up there to SF all the time...it is bad.  LA, pretty much every week....really bad.  There are plenty of sources not named Fox News that have it documented...LA Times being one of them.


25000 incidents last year per SF Public Works Dept....not a bunch of crap....well actually...a whole lotta crap.


"I will say there is more feces on the sidewalks than I've ever seen growing up here," San Francisco Mayor London Breed told NBC in a 2018 interview. "That is a huge problem, and we are not just talking about from dogs — we're talking about from humans."

https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-human-poop-problem-2019-4

you must be running thru nancy and gavins 'hoods.  they've also got their own cops there too
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: reinko on February 10, 2020, 05:51:53 AM
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

Fingers crossed some good news
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on February 10, 2020, 08:27:05 AM
Heard the weekly coronavirus update from my Chinese factory counterpart.  Local government is asking factories to stay closed until March 1 and if they open sooner they take full legal responsibility.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on February 10, 2020, 09:25:39 AM
MU FaninCT

It really is a mixed bag in regards to the opening of factories. Our company does supply chain mgt/QC work at roughly 50 factories in China and about 25% re-opened last night. We have some hoping to open later this week or next and others looking at 3/1 as starting date. It is going to be a crazy couple of weeks, probably longer than that.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on February 10, 2020, 09:36:00 AM
Heard the weekly coronavirus update from my Chinese factory counterpart.  Local government is asking factories to stay closed until March 1 and if they open sooner they take full legal responsibility.

What does "full legal responsibility" mean in this context?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on February 10, 2020, 09:51:50 AM
What does "full legal responsibility" mean in this context?

Probably major fines from the government.

He also said the factory has to pass a government inspection before it can be reopened.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Pakuni on February 10, 2020, 09:59:29 AM
What does "full legal responsibility" mean in this context?

Remember what happened to the guys blamed for the baby milk scandal?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 10, 2020, 10:07:22 AM
I read a CNN article over the weekend that North Korea is the only Eastern country that hasn't had a case of Coronavirus.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/asia/north-korea-wuhan-coronavirus-infection-intl-hnk/index.html

Which got me to thinking, there's a lot of cross-border activity between China and DPRK, both legal and illegal... so if - by chance - the virus crosses the DPRK border, it's likely that the party will do everything to suppress any evidence; therefore, it's plausible that DPRK has already been exposed, and we just don't know it.  And considering that DPRK's health system is as sophisticated as Doc McStuffins' the virus could actually - in the literal sense - decimate that country.

On the other hand, the only plausible way that nobody in DPRK has died from this is if the country has some sort of immunity... which itself seems to defy logic.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on February 10, 2020, 11:58:28 AM
MU Burrow

Some factories are requesting third party contractors to sign papers exposing themselves to legal liability. Due the delays that will be caused by the virus, I am anticipating a lot of games to be played by suppliers. In fairness to the suppliers, they are not receiving consistent info from the different government agencies.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on February 10, 2020, 12:09:15 PM
I read a CNN article over the weekend that North Korea is the only Eastern country that hasn't had a case of Coronavirus.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/asia/north-korea-wuhan-coronavirus-infection-intl-hnk/index.html

Which got me to thinking, there's a lot of cross-border activity between China and DPRK, both legal and illegal... so if - by chance - the virus crosses the DPRK border, it's likely that the party will do everything to suppress any evidence; therefore, it's plausible that DPRK has already been exposed, and we just don't know it.  And considering that DPRK's health system is as sophisticated as Doc McStuffins' the virus could actually - in the literal sense - decimate that country.

On the other hand, the only plausible way that nobody in DPRK has died from this is if the country has some sort of immunity... which itself seems to defy logic.

Maybe the pulled everyone's teeth and that stopped the spread
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on February 10, 2020, 12:11:32 PM
I rarely let my conspiracy side out to play, but I do think there may be something to the concept that Coronavirus is a bio-weapon escaped.....Wuhan is home to two Chinese bio weapon labs
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on February 10, 2020, 12:14:25 PM
MU Burrow

Some factories are requesting third party contractors to sign papers exposing themselves to legal liability. Due the delays that will be caused by the virus, I am anticipating a lot of games to be played by suppliers. In fairness to the suppliers, they are not receiving consistent info from the different government agencies.

Thanks Goose (and MUFaninCT). 

Given what "legal liability" means in the Chinese context, no supplier in their right mind would re-open with this type of hammer hanging over them, would they?  Unless maybe remaining closed would put them under? But even then...

Or is part of this to provide those suppliers cover from the government to tell their overseas customers that their hands are tied? Sorry for my ignorance on this, it just seems a very vague threat and I'm having trouble unpacking what it means (or maybe the Chinese authorities don't even know what it means yet?).
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on February 10, 2020, 12:44:46 PM
MU Burrow

Some factories are requesting third party contractors to sign papers exposing themselves to legal liability. Due the delays that will be caused by the virus, I am anticipating a lot of games to be played by suppliers. In fairness to the suppliers, they are not receiving consistent info from the different government agencies.

My company's Zhongshan plant manager said one of his customer's in Shenzhen was pushing for us to reopen, but our plant manger told the customer he would not endanger his employee's with this virus.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 10, 2020, 01:03:29 PM
I rarely let my conspiracy side out to play, but I do think there may be something to the concept that Coronavirus is a bio-weapon escaped.....Wuhan is home to two Chinese bio weapon labs

gee, the guy that alerted everyone of the virus is dead and the dude that video taped a bunch of stuff was arrested and not whereabouts unknown-probably a kidney shortage or sumpin
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 10, 2020, 01:19:11 PM
My company's Zhongshan plant manager said one of his customer's in Shenzhen was pushing for us to reopen, but our plant manger told the customer he would not endanger his employee's with this virus.

After they stopped laughing, what did they decide?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Its DJOver on February 10, 2020, 01:21:13 PM
I rarely let my conspiracy side out to play, but I do think there may be something to the concept that Coronavirus is a bio-weapon escaped.....Wuhan is home to two Chinese bio weapon labs

Oh, I've read this one.  We all gotta meet up in Colorado and then walk to Vegas.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 10, 2020, 01:23:40 PM
I read a CNN article over the weekend that North Korea is the only Eastern country that hasn't had a case of Coronavirus.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/asia/north-korea-wuhan-coronavirus-infection-intl-hnk/index.html

Which got me to thinking, there's a lot of cross-border activity between China and DPRK, both legal and illegal... so if - by chance - the virus crosses the DPRK border, it's likely that the party will do everything to suppress any evidence; therefore, it's plausible that DPRK has already been exposed, and we just don't know it.  And considering that DPRK's health system is as sophisticated as Doc McStuffins' the virus could actually - in the literal sense - decimate that country.

On the other hand, the only plausible way that nobody in DPRK has died from this is if the country has some sort of immunity... which itself seems to defy logic.

The same country where their leader got a hole in one on every hole....they are magical
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on February 10, 2020, 01:33:42 PM
Oh, I've read this one.  We all gotta meet up in Colorado and then walk to Vegas.

Your thoughts stand up well.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 10, 2020, 02:15:32 PM
I rarely let my conspiracy side out to play, but I do think there may be something to the concept that Coronavirus is a bio-weapon escaped.....Wuhan is home to two Chinese bio weapon labs

I love conspiracy theories, but I'm very hesitant and reluctant to go full tin-foil on this one.  Which either means there's some truth to it or the I'm terrified of the very prospect of full-on development of viral weaponry.  Which begs the question... short of an admission from the Chinese bio-lab workers, is it plausible that you could make such a determination simply by studying the virus?

More likely (hopefully) is that if this is a manufactured virus, it's part of the R&D into a universal flu vaccine.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TSmith34 on February 10, 2020, 02:16:45 PM
The same country where their leader got a hole in one on every hole....they are magical
Kim is the best at everything.  Sounds weirdly familiar.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 10, 2020, 02:33:06 PM
Kim is the best at everything.  Sounds weirdly familiar.

He left 3 years ago....get over it...go watch his Netflix stuff if you feel so inclined.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on February 10, 2020, 03:33:18 PM
I love conspiracy theories, but I'm very hesitant and reluctant to go full tin-foil on this one.  Which either means there's some truth to it or the I'm terrified of the very prospect of full-on development of viral weaponry.  Which begs the question... short of an admission from the Chinese bio-lab workers, is it plausible that you could make such a determination simply by studying the virus?

More likely (hopefully) is that if this is a manufactured virus, it's part of the R&D into a universal flu vaccine.

You can determine if it's likely to have been engineered but I don't believe you can 100% prove it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on February 10, 2020, 05:48:34 PM
Like the conspiracy theory that Lyme Disease is engineered and accidentally escaped Plum Island, NY?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 10, 2020, 07:12:42 PM
I read a CNN article over the weekend that North Korea is the only Eastern country that hasn't had a case of Coronavirus.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/asia/north-korea-wuhan-coronavirus-infection-intl-hnk/index.html

Which got me to thinking, there's a lot of cross-border activity between China and DPRK, both legal and illegal... so if - by chance - the virus crosses the DPRK border, it's likely that the party will do everything to suppress any evidence; therefore, it's plausible that DPRK has already been exposed, and we just don't know it.  And considering that DPRK's health system is as sophisticated as Doc McStuffins' the virus could actually - in the literal sense - decimate that country.

On the other hand, the only plausible way that nobody in DPRK has died from this is if the country has some sort of immunity... which itself seems to defy logic.

Strange, I've heard it is in DPRK.  And that they're spraying everything between China and Pyongyang.  But I read too much.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 12, 2020, 06:40:35 PM
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227741314911031296
Quote
BREAKING: Epicenter of coronavirus outbreak reports 14,840 new cases, including clinically diagnosed cases, and 242 new deaths

That is an ENORMOUS jump in new cases in one day.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 12, 2020, 07:07:03 PM
Seems like they were sandbagging ..


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQnQ-HBX0AAnQqQ?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on February 12, 2020, 07:17:42 PM
Seems like they were sandbagging ..


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQnQ-HBX0AAnQqQ?format=png&name=small)

The Chinese must be in charge of the Senior Class Award voting too.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on February 13, 2020, 03:36:07 PM
Seems like they were sandbagging ..


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQnQ-HBX0AAnQqQ?format=png&name=small)

My (limited) understanding is that this jump is due to a change in the criteria to reporting an infection.  Up until now, the case had to be confirmed through testing, which meant several days of lag, and in many cases, not being reported at all if the person died or for one reason or another didn't have a sample sent for testing.  From now on, the reported numbers are going to include all diagnoses made by doctors, regardless of the status of the test (unless negative, I guess).  So this jump included every probable case that hadn't been confirmed through testing.  Word from the CDC today is that this likely means there are far more cases than had been reported, but that the death rate is probably significantly lower than previously reported.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on February 14, 2020, 09:09:53 AM
Slightly off topic, but I'm starting to wonder if the worm is turning on China from a global perspective. Given the handling(or lack thereof) of the Coronavirus, the HK protests and by extension the reaction to the Daryl Morey tweet, and the muslim "re-education" camps....I think China is taking a lot of lumps. Could they recover, absolutely and I'm not saying that China as a world power is dying, but it's not outside the realm of possibility that we look back at the past three years and view this time as the unwinding of Chinese economic and political strength on the world stage.

As an example I know my company has put any expansion in China on hold for two years and are creating plans to exit HK as a center for financial and data transactions for our AP region.

Just something to keep an eye on IMHO
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 14, 2020, 09:52:38 AM
Slightly off topic, but I'm starting to wonder if the worm is turning on China from a global perspective. Given the handling(or lack thereof) of the Coronavirus, the HK protests and by extension the reaction to the Daryl Morey tweet, and the muslim "re-education" camps....I think China is taking a lot of lumps. Could they recover, absolutely and I'm not saying that China as a world power is dying, but it's not outside the realm of possibility that we look back at the past three years and view this time as the unwinding of Chinese economic and political strength on the world stage.

As an example I know my company has put any expansion in China on hold for two years and are creating plans to exit HK as a center for financial and data transactions for our AP region.

Just something to keep an eye on IMHO

China is too large and powerful to succumb to external pressure.  The country is like an adult bookstore or a crack dealer... no matter how unethical or how despised they may be, they have something that people want (and if someone isn't willing to overlook their misdeeds, someone else will).

Change can only come from within, and even then, it must come from the masses, not simply the majority.  IMO, it would take something cataclysmic (which it is not looking like COVID-19 rises to this level) to change the paradigm in the People's Republic... decades of propaganda and censorship have ingrained their brand of authoritarianism so deeply within their culture that the very though of the Chinese rising up en masse against their gov't would be tantamount to Americans suddenly deciding that we're all going to completely abandon the idea of diamond engagement rings.

Taking a page while it's still fresh... watch American Factory on Netflix; the Chinese don't envy the lifestyle and leisure time that Americans enjoy, they despise it.  Even when given the freedom to explore, they still blindly adhere to their hierarchy.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on February 14, 2020, 11:54:01 AM
China is too large and powerful to succumb to external pressure. The country is like an adult bookstore or a crack dealer... no matter how unethical or how despised they may be, they have something that people want (and if someone isn't willing to overlook their misdeeds, someone else will).



This.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 14, 2020, 05:54:40 PM
how dare anyone criticize and/ or doubt China...just ask the NBA and the tiananmen square survivors 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on February 14, 2020, 06:24:20 PM
China is too large and powerful to succumb to external pressure.  The country is like an adult bookstore or a crack dealer... no matter how unethical or how despised they may be, they have something that people want (and if someone isn't willing to overlook their misdeeds, someone else will).

Change can only come from within, and even then, it must come from the masses, not simply the majority.  IMO, it would take something cataclysmic (which it is not looking like COVID-19 rises to this level) to change the paradigm in the People's Republic... decades of propaganda and censorship have ingrained their brand of authoritarianism so deeply within their culture that the very though of the Chinese rising up en masse against their gov't would be tantamount to Americans suddenly deciding that we're all going to completely abandon the idea of diamond engagement rings.

Taking a page while it's still fresh... watch American Factory on Netflix; the Chinese don't envy the lifestyle and leisure time that Americans enjoy, they despise it.  Even when given the freedom to explore, they still blindly adhere to their hierarchy.

I've seen American Factory and I've seen Chinese culture first hand. I agree that change won't come from within unless  it is significantly impacted by external forces. As manufacturing automates (in fact manufacturing will move to an as a service model within the next 15 years) it will move closer to the consumer and scale requirements that China relies on will decrease giving China less competitive edge.

Again I don't think a major paradigm is going to happen but it's gone to a non-zero possibility in the last 3 years
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TallTitan34 on February 18, 2020, 12:44:10 AM
2019-20 United States Flu Season Preliminary CDC Estimates

250,000 hospitalized
14,000 dead
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 18, 2020, 06:28:10 AM
2019-20 United States Flu Season Preliminary CDC Estimates

250,000 hospitalized
14,000 dead

Yes, the flu is a problem. The big concern is that the corona virus, unless contained, will become seasonal within the global population. If that happens estimates for how a corona virus season may look, would be something like.

5,000,000 hospitalized
300,000 dead.

The hospitalizations alone would cripple our medical system, possibly leading to even more deaths.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TallTitan34 on February 18, 2020, 07:29:24 AM
Yes, the flu is a problem. The big concern is that the corona virus, unless contained, will become seasonal within the global population. If that happens estimates for how a corona virus season may look, would be something like.

5,000,000 hospitalized
300,000 dead.

The hospitalizations alone would cripple our medical system, possibly leading to even more deaths.

Haven’t they already said they expect it to become seasonal?

Still don’t think the numbers will be that high. Somewhere I saw it mentioned that there is likely a large number of people who have it but show such mild symptoms they don’t even it checked. While that would likely increase the number of people getting infected, it would also drop that fatality and hospitalize rate a great deal.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 18, 2020, 08:16:51 AM
Haven’t they already said they expect it to become seasonal?

Still don’t think the numbers will be that high. Somewhere I saw it mentioned that there is likely a large number of people who have it but show such mild symptoms they don’t even it checked. While that would likely increase the number of people getting infected, it would also drop that fatality and hospitalize rate a great deal.

The probability of it becoming seasonal is reasonably high. Some people I know that run statistical models of epidemiology put the probability reasonably high, but it is not a forgone conclusion. The next 30 days are critical to see if it can be contained. A lot of mistakes being made though, which is not helping.

The numbers I listed are on the lower/middle end of the range that some colleague of mine have determined using statistics from CDC databases.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 18, 2020, 09:36:56 AM
Haven’t they already said they expect it to become seasonal?

Still don’t think the numbers will be that high. Somewhere I saw it mentioned that there is likely a large number of people who have it but show such mild symptoms they don’t even it checked. While that would likely increase the number of people getting infected, it would also drop that fatality and hospitalize rate a great deal.

Except 20% require hospitalization.

Sorry bud, you're wrong if you think this is the flu.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 18, 2020, 09:38:52 AM
2019-20 United States Flu Season Preliminary CDC Estimates

250,000 hospitalized
14,000 dead

China sure isn't treating it like the flu.  So I wouldn't trust their numbers.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 18, 2020, 10:37:53 AM
2019-20 United States Flu Season Preliminary CDC Estimates

250,000 hospitalized
14,000 dead

As Hards said, Covid-19 is not the flu... it is a respiratory disease with flu-like symptoms.  Comparing Covid-19 stats to flu stats is a false comparison that adds little in the way of perspective, especially since you're ignoring the time factor involved, i.e. you're comparing annual stats on flu to about a month's worth of stats on Covid-19... how the hell is anyone supposed to draw a conclusion on that?

In other words, whatever the agenda is in comparing seasonal influenza stats to Covid-19 stats, the comparison itself is tantamount to comparing the number of cardiac deaths to the number of AIDS deaths in the early 80's.  1981 Morty would probably say something along the lines of: "Oh geez, Rick, that AIDS thing sure isn't killing as many people as heart attacks are and barely anyone here has it... maybe we should just calm down and not do anything about it."
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TallTitan34 on February 18, 2020, 10:51:00 AM
Except 20% require hospitalization.

Sorry bud, you're wrong if you think this is the flu.

20% of known cases.  Maybe I should say reported cases since China isn't trustworthy.

Like I said, there are likely many others who have it and just experienced mild symptoms and didn't even get checked. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on February 18, 2020, 11:07:05 AM
20% of known cases.  Maybe I should say reported cases since China isn't trustworthy.

Like I said, there are likely many others who have it and just experienced mild symptoms and didn't even get checked.

What point are you trying to make? 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on February 18, 2020, 11:36:31 AM
Did the sky fall yet?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 18, 2020, 01:51:16 PM
Did the sky fall yet?

Check on Japan in a month.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: tower912 on February 18, 2020, 01:58:25 PM
The fun part there will be if it turns out to be more than seasonal.   The Olympics could be jeopardized.     Worse than the virus in Rio that had all the golfers bailing.     And who has the facilities to host on short notice?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on February 18, 2020, 02:01:42 PM
The fun part there will be if it turns out to be more than seasonal.   The Olympics could be jeopardized.     Worse than the virus in Rio that had all the golfers bailing.     And who has the facilities to host on short notice?

I'd imagine they'd need to chose an area more than a city in that case. Even then it'd be tough.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 18, 2020, 03:44:09 PM
The fun part there will be if it turns out to be more than seasonal.   The Olympics could be jeopardized.     Worse than the virus in Rio that had all the golfers bailing.     And who has the facilities to host on short notice?

USA always has the ability to field the Olympics on short notice.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on February 18, 2020, 04:14:15 PM
Check on Japan in a month.

Next month my company was supposed to have a quality audit from our Japanese headquarters.  They just postponed to maybe April. maybe May....
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 18, 2020, 04:16:46 PM
The fun part there will be if it turns out to be more than seasonal.   The Olympics could be jeopardized.     Worse than the virus in Rio that had all the golfers bailing.     And who has the facilities to host on short notice?

Los Angeles
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Retire0 on February 18, 2020, 05:05:59 PM
Los Angeles

Olympics Golf at Riv would be fantastic.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: tower912 on February 18, 2020, 05:07:16 PM
Olympics Golf at Riv would be fantastic.
Would take Tiger out of medal contention.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 18, 2020, 11:42:57 PM
Los Angeles

This.  Little known secret: LA is always on Ready-5 every four years leading up to the Olympics. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on February 19, 2020, 10:02:25 AM
As Hards said, Covid-19 is not the flu... it is a respiratory disease with flu-like symptoms.  Comparing Covid-19 stats to flu stats is a false comparison that adds little in the way of perspective, especially since you're ignoring the time factor involved, i.e. you're comparing annual stats on flu to about a month's worth of stats on Covid-19... how the hell is anyone supposed to draw a conclusion on that?

In other words, whatever the agenda is in comparing seasonal influenza stats to Covid-19 stats, the comparison itself is tantamount to comparing the number of cardiac deaths to the number of AIDS deaths in the early 80's.  1981 Morty would probably say something along the lines of: "Oh geez, Rick, that AIDS thing sure isn't killing as many people as heart attacks are and barely anyone here has it... maybe we should just calm down and not do anything about it."

This is a really good analysis, and I enjoy your use of Rick and Morty.

I'm also sick of seeing the flu comparison as a way to minimize the seriousness of this epidemic. There is still so much we don't know about COVID-19, including transmission methods, and reliable numbers on total infected and death rate. Even if it is just another "flu," that would be a pretty significant impact on global health.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on February 19, 2020, 10:19:37 AM
I'm also sick of seeing the flu comparison as a way to minimize the seriousness of this epidemic. There is still so much we don't know about COVID-19, including transmission methods, and reliable numbers on total infected and death rate. Even if it is just another "flu," that would be a pretty significant impact on global health.

I've used the flu comparison, but I don't really feel like I use it to minimize the seriousness of this epidemic. I've heard people (including my children) who were saying they were afraid to go outside or to go to work or public places. This is a very serious situation, but that is absolutely silly. The reference to the flu is merely a reminder that there really is no statistically significant risk of getting sick from this virus. If people aren't afraid to go to work every single day of winter, they shouldn't be afraid to to go to work because of this virus. It doesn't mean that it's not a big deal; it is.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on February 19, 2020, 10:30:54 AM
I've used the flu comparison, but I don't really feel like I use it to minimize the seriousness of this epidemic. I've heard people (including my children) who were saying they were afraid to go outside or to go to work or public places. This is a very serious situation, but that is absolutely silly. The reference to the flu is merely a reminder that there really is no statistically significant risk of getting sick from this virus. If people aren't afraid to go to work every single day of winter, they shouldn't be afraid to to go to work because of this virus. It doesn't mean that it's not a big deal; it is.

That's fair, if you live in the US.

I don't think its silly to be afraid to go to work right now if you live in Wuhan.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on February 19, 2020, 10:40:04 AM
That's fair, if you live in the US.

I don't think its silly to be afraid to go to work right now if you live in Wuhan.

I completely agree. This is a very scary virus. I'm not minimizing that at all. When I compare it to the flu, I do not intend at all to suggest that this thing isn't extraordinarily serious where there are outbreaks. Only that people in the US should not be overly concerned about catching it themselves. Concerned about the people  in China? Absolutely. Concerned about impact on world economy? Yep. Concerned about actually acquiring it in the US? Probably not...especially if you don't live in fear of catching the flu.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on February 19, 2020, 11:03:33 AM
I completely agree. This is a very scary virus. I'm not minimizing that at all. When I compare it to the flu, I do not intend at all to suggest that this thing isn't extraordinarily serious where there are outbreaks. Only that people in the US should not be overly concerned about catching it themselves. Concerned about the people  in China? Absolutely. Concerned about impact on world economy? Yep. Concerned about actually acquiring it in the US? Probably not...especially if you don't live in fear of catching the flu.

We are pretty much in agreement then. We are lucky the CDC is really good at what they do. Probably one of the most under-appreciated government agencies.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on February 19, 2020, 11:05:08 AM
We are pretty much in agreement then. We are lucky the CDC is really good at what they do. Probably one of the most under-appreciated government agencies.

Probably need to cut their budget then.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 19, 2020, 11:19:40 AM
We are pretty much in agreement then. We are lucky the CDC is really good at what they do. Probably one of the most under-appreciated government agencies.

No matter how good you are, when you essentially have the power to lock down and quarantine a major city, nobody's going to like you... even if you're trying to save their life.

Welcome to parenthood.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 19, 2020, 11:28:16 AM
Probably need to cut their budget then.

So much this!  They've let like 15 cases through to the US, that's unacceptable.   What are they doing with all their money?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TSmith34 on February 19, 2020, 01:14:55 PM
So much this!  They've let like 15 cases through to the US, that's unacceptable.   What are they doing with all their money?
Coke and whores...but for medical research purposes. Probably.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on February 19, 2020, 03:56:48 PM
We are pretty much in agreement then. We are lucky the CDC is really good at what they do. Probably one of the most under-appreciated government agencies.

A container showed up today from our Chinese customer.   They were returning empty spools and crates to us for our reuse.

Some of the floor workers were freaking out that our engineer called the CDC.  The CDC called him back indicating we had nothing to worry about and even less so since the crates spent several weeks on a boat crossing the Pacific followed by a cross country trip from California.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 19, 2020, 09:27:42 PM
South Koreas numbers today are... not reassuring.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on February 20, 2020, 05:58:28 PM
The Trump administration fired the entire pandemic response chain of command, and dismissed the White House management infrastructure.

He pushed Congress to cut funding for disease security programs created by Bush and Obama. Then, Trump lopped off $15 billion in national health spending and zeroed out the global disease-fighting budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 22, 2020, 09:23:01 AM
South Koreas numbers today are... not reassuring.

I said this three days ago when the number was 53.  Currently, its at 433... so an 8x increase in three days.

Looks like we might actually be seeing what this virus can do... and its not good.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 22, 2020, 01:57:15 PM
My guess is that by the end of next week the total confirmed infected will be over 100k.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 22, 2020, 08:04:50 PM
The Trump administration fired the entire pandemic response chain of command, and dismissed the White House management infrastructure.

He pushed Congress to cut funding for disease security programs created by Bush and Obama. Then, Trump lopped off $15 billion in national health spending and zeroed out the global disease-fighting budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS.

Interesting how this isn’t politics but when another admin is shown to have tried to cut funding the post is deleted.  So strange.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 23, 2020, 09:57:49 AM
Interesting how this isn’t politics but when another admin is shown to have tried to cut funding the post is deleted.  So strange.

Yes, there's terrible moderator hypocrisy on this forum.   You should be outraged.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 23, 2020, 10:47:22 AM
Yes, there's terrible moderator hypocrisy on this forum.   You should be outraged.

I just find it strange that someone brings up CDC PROPOSED cuts and when someone shows the previous guy did the same thing....it is deleted.  Wonder how come?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 23, 2020, 11:21:24 AM
I just fine it strange that someone brings up CDC PROPOSED cuts and when someone shows the previous guy did the same thing....it is deleted.  Wonder how come?

Because you're off topic.  You don't have to ruin every thread with your political garbage.  This is moderating 101.

If you want to 'point out hypocrisy, there is an entire world to do it.   No one cares, and it isn't relevant to the discussion at hand.  Yet you CONTINUE to think that it is important.

If you have a problem with the post in question, report it, and ask for its removal.  But your false outrage and attempts to continually change the narrative are exhausting.  Its why you're so despised here. 

Read the room.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 23, 2020, 11:38:37 AM
I just fine it strange that someone brings up CDC PROPOSED cuts and when someone shows the previous guy did the same thing....it is deleted.  Wonder how come?

Tell me about it!  The hypocrisy is unbearable, right? 

If it isn't, how can we get you to that point?  (Asking a friend.)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 23, 2020, 09:16:57 PM
Because you're off topic.  You don't have to ruin every thread with your political garbage.  This is moderating 101.

If you want to 'point out hypocrisy, there is an entire world to do it.   No one cares, and it isn't relevant to the discussion at hand.  Yet you CONTINUE to think that it is important.

If you have a problem with the post in question, report it, and ask for its removal.  But your false outrage and attempts to continually change the narrative are exhausting.  Its why you're so despised here. 

Read the room.

Oh mods were notified.... it's weird, if no one cares why would anyone care if someone posted that the previous administration did the same thing...you know since no one cares. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 23, 2020, 10:06:29 PM
Looks like we’ve got more than one virus in this thread.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 23, 2020, 10:29:30 PM
Coke and whores...but for medical research purposes. Probably.

 smith and i have had some fightin words, but this one made me LOL, spittle and milk out the nose funny!  good one T! 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 23, 2020, 11:00:33 PM
Oh mods were notified.... it's weird, if no one cares why would anyone care if someone posted that the previous administration did the same thing...you know since no one cares.

Because you're a nutjob and take it to extremes.  You can't help yourself.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 23, 2020, 11:27:22 PM
Welp, this had been a good thread with COVID-19 updates. One of the few superbar threads I follow. Now I see why you all report chicos as a thread ruiner.

I have to admit, he usually doesn't bring up or mention politics (others actually do that more), but he sure does have knack for public whining and complaining! 

Drop it cheeks.

Anyhow, looks likes China's financials due to CV are finally starting to get recognition. And with worldwide cases spreading (Italy!) Still impressive CDC has handled it here well, even with the cruise ship passengers - despite media outrage, it was for our own good!
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 24, 2020, 08:05:43 AM
DOW expected to open -850 points this morning due to COVID-19.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on February 24, 2020, 08:57:38 AM
Topper

I am completely shocked it has taken this long for the market to respond. On 2/3 I wrote down the NASDAQ was 9270 and fully expected a big pullback starting roughly around that time. It is currently approx at that point now. I have great concerns over the virus and the how it will affect the global economy for the remainder on the year. We are in the first inning of this potential crisis., I am afraid.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 24, 2020, 09:22:21 AM
Topper

I am completely shocked it has taken this long for the market to respond. On 2/3 I wrote down the NASDAQ was 9270 and fully expected a big pullback starting roughly around that time. It is currently approx at that point now. I have great concerns over the virus and the how it will affect the global economy for the remainder on the year. We are in the first inning of this potential crisis., I am afraid.

I think it took this long because certain people were warned to slowly pull out.  But that's just the crazy in me talking.  ;)

The numbers out of Italy are of extreme concern. 

This is a global pandemic whether the WHO wants to call it that or not.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on February 24, 2020, 11:52:27 AM

This is a global pandemic whether the WHO wants to call it that or not.

Because China tried to cover it up rather than deal with it when they needed to, this has all the earmarks of a classic pandemic. Once the spread has started, it is not easy to stop.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 24, 2020, 12:46:13 PM
weird, i've owned the stock called gilead for some time and just added to it last week-my suspicions were unfortunately right on.  they have been working on a drug called remdesavir, an anti-viral that may be effective against the coronavirus.  it hasn't been approved anywhere to use, but one has to think the pressure is on
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 24, 2020, 08:14:24 PM
I smell lots of buying opportunities.  Short term investment in mask makers....they cannot make them fast enough.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 24, 2020, 08:16:26 PM
Just a heads up .. I want this to be a serious thread. 

Nonsense posts will be deleted.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: RJax55 on February 24, 2020, 08:31:48 PM
Just a heads up .. I want this to be a serious thread. 

Nonsense posts will be deleted.

Thanks, Topper. Been following this thread and appreciate the effort to avoid it turning into the usual crapshow.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 24, 2020, 08:45:08 PM
I smell lots of buying opportunities.  Short term investment in mask makers....they cannot make them fast enough.

Masks are not very profitable, I've looked into it.  ;D

specifically, 3M N95 masks.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 24, 2020, 08:49:07 PM
Over under in TOKYO GAMES being canceled? 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 24, 2020, 09:06:54 PM
Over under in TOKYO GAMES being canceled?

They should be.  But there are a few months to go.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 24, 2020, 09:15:06 PM
Over under in TOKYO GAMES being canceled?

Two possibilities.

1) This goes pandemic by then, and it really doesn't matter where a person is, so no need to cancel.

2) It does not go pandemic, in which case it is largely contained by then, especially in Japan. So no need to cancel.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 24, 2020, 09:48:35 PM
Trump administration asks for at least $2.5 billion to fight Coronavirus


https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/484441-white-house-asking-congress-for-25-billion-to-fight-coronavirus
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 24, 2020, 10:47:40 PM
Well in reading the article apparently is and it isn’t enough....go figure, eh.  But I’m guessing money makes a difference in organizing, quarantining people, treating folks incrementally, etc.  I suspect money will be very important in fighting this.

Great.  Trust me, money doesn't solve this problem.  If it did, China would have solved this problem two months ago, and the rest of us would have never heard of it.

Don't be so naive.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: curbina on February 24, 2020, 11:20:17 PM
Good read on Coronavirus

THE STRESS OF CORONAVIRUS
The coronavirus outbreak has taken center stage, sparking nervousness around the world and severely hampering business in Asia’s...

https://insight.factset.com/the-stress-of-coronavirus

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on February 25, 2020, 04:59:20 AM
Cheeks

I do not think there is going to be a short term buying opportunity. This is going to take awhile to itself out. My money is betting the other way and believe things could get ugly.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Cheeks on February 25, 2020, 08:11:43 AM
Cheeks

I do not think there is going to be a short term buying opportunity. This is going to take awhile to itself out. My money is betting the other way and believe things could get ugly.

All depends on time horizons.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 25, 2020, 09:25:43 AM
Two possibilities.

1) This goes pandemic by then, and it really doesn't matter where a person is, so no need to cancel.

2) It does not go pandemic, in which case it is largely contained by then, especially in Japan. So no need to cancel.

-Or-

3) Status quo is mostly maintained between now and then, i.e. virus is still predominantly in China, but a handful of cases keep popping up around the world... in other words, it's not really a pandemic, but it's not really fully contained either. 

In other words, let's say the Olympics are three weeks away (March 15).  Assuming there's no global warming riots in Japan, do you bar China from competing, do you allow just the athletes & coaches in the country (no fans, family, etc.), or do you simply shut it down?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 25, 2020, 11:05:11 AM
Good article ..
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

.. Also .. how many billions go up in smoke if the Olympics are cancelled?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Retire0 on February 25, 2020, 11:36:38 AM
IOC member Dick Pound says Tokyo Olympic organizers have until late May to see if the virus is under control. If not, "you're probably looking at a cancellation."
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: curbina on February 25, 2020, 11:53:02 AM
Good article ..
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

.. Also .. how many billions go up in smoke if the Olympics are cancelled?

Thanks Topper
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TallTitan34 on February 25, 2020, 01:59:19 PM
IOC member Dick Pound says Tokyo Olympic organizers have until late May to see if the virus is under control. If not, "you're probably looking at a cancellation."

Wonder if he's friends with Dick Strong?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on February 25, 2020, 02:30:06 PM
You're dancing around the bigger issue. 

How many cases have to show up in the next few weeks in the US to cancel March Madness (and close, schools, theatres, the NBA, etc)?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: RJax55 on February 25, 2020, 02:41:35 PM
You're dancing around the bigger issue. 

How many cases have to show up in the next few weeks in the US to cancel March Madness (and close, schools, theatres, the NBA, etc)?

That's a good question and at this point, perhaps the only question for countries. Can you deal with the virus, while maintaining daily activities as normal as possible.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 25, 2020, 02:57:59 PM
You're dancing around the bigger issue. 

How many cases have to show up in the next few weeks in the US to cancel March Madness (and close, schools, theatres, the NBA, etc)?


Since the real danger is exposing 15,000 people in a stadium .. you could eliminate that, and just have the games played in front of empty stadiums.   Billions on the line, might as well play the games.


Now .. schools on the other hand .. they would need to close.


.. In the end, I think the virus goes global and quarantines will be pointless. 


Not that I know anything, but my two kids were streptococcus carriers and infected my wife 6 times w/strep throat before we figured it out.  Kids were healthy as could be .. they just carried it and infected her and probably others until we treated them. 


There are asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers:


https://www.sciencealert.com/researchers-confirmed-patients-can-transmit-the-coronavirus-without-showing-symptoms (https://www.sciencealert.com/researchers-confirmed-patients-can-transmit-the-coronavirus-without-showing-symptoms)

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on February 25, 2020, 03:00:22 PM
From the White House today:

“We have contained this. I won’t say airtight, but pretty close to airtight.”


Stop worrying, everyone.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 25, 2020, 03:28:59 PM
Get your supplies before the run on the stores.

Worst case scenario, you have some food sitting around the house you can eat over the next couple of months.

Best case scenario, you're not out in the crowds fighting over what is left, and you're not exposing you or your family to human nature at the worst of times.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 25, 2020, 03:33:24 PM
Welp, now I can justify buying that 4 gallon can of Beefaroo at Costco.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 25, 2020, 03:40:10 PM
Just a heads up .. I want this to be a serious thread. 

Nonsense posts will be deleted.

Welp, now I can justify buying that 4 gallon can of Beefaroo at Costco.

nm

edit:  Hilltopper, you complete me.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on February 25, 2020, 03:44:03 PM
Cheeks


Human life is the most important part of this story, but as noted on here, the economic fallout is going to immense. If the virus was 100% contained in Hubei Province this was would be a big economic story, but spreading to other countries just threw gas on a potential serious economic issue.

For the past five years I have been telling anyone that would listen that someday China's economic/financial mess would make our housing crisis look like sound accounting. This virus might very well expose the cracks in the Chinese financial sector. After today's announcements I now think we are just in batting practice in this mess, not the first inning.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on February 25, 2020, 03:57:37 PM
Trump administration asks for at least $2.5 billion to fight Coronavirus


https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/484441-white-house-asking-congress-for-25-billion-to-fight-coronavirus

Hmmm maybe we shouldn't have slashed NIH to begin with?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 25, 2020, 04:00:31 PM
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
U.S. CDC: "We're asking folks in every sector, as well as people within their families, to start planning for this, because as we've seen from the recent countries that have had community spread, when it hit in those countries, it has moved quite rapidly"
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 25, 2020, 04:02:57 PM
The real tipping point in the US will be when people are told to stay home from work and school... and they have nothing, and are still living paycheck to paycheck...
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 25, 2020, 05:21:29 PM
What really bugs me about all this is that this "being on the precipice of the early stages of the verge of panic" seems completely unnecessary.

Then again, even if CBP/CDC had acted proactively a month ago (when I first asked the question), would the situation be any better?

Nevertheless, all of this seems like it's now becoming a media darling, which means more sensationalism and fewer facts.  For one, initially I had feared transmission by the asymptomatic, which I was led to believe was synonymous with "pre-symptomatic."  Is this actually the case, or are there people who could be infected that will never develop symptoms (i.e. their immune system will be sufficient on its own)?  Unfortunately, it's hard to ascertain with the media and gov't so focused on ratings and campaigns.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Retire0 on February 25, 2020, 05:40:22 PM
So ConEx in Vegas is coming up. Largest North American convention. Thinking maybe I shouldn’t go now.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on February 25, 2020, 05:48:10 PM
My mom's a nurse injector in Scottsdale and has been put on back order for their next order of masks for the OR. Just saying the panic is hitting

Edit: at the grocery store now and there is a ton of rows of can goods gone. People even stocking up like it's Y2K
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: DegenerateDish on February 25, 2020, 05:53:32 PM
So ConEx in Vegas is coming up. Largest North American convention. Thinking maybe I shouldn’t go now.

This is what I'm curious about for people on here, has anyone changed their travel plans or altered any plans based on the potential of the virus hitting the US?

Obviously if you were one who regularly had to go to China, that would of course be different.

Is anyone loading up on non perishables at this point? Anyone cancelled spring break plans? I travel for work pretty regularly, and have to admit I don't actively think about it. The number of people in airports I see wearing masks is up probably twentyfold.

I honestly come to this thread for info on the outbreak, the knowledge base here seems to be much more trustworthy to me than any other outlets.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on February 25, 2020, 06:22:38 PM
MUDish

My travel, and my clients, is focused on Asia and our clients are on complete holding pattern. A large client was to be exhibiting at a large trade show in Germany next week and they were told today that show was cancelled until next February. This came roughy 7-10 days prior to show opening day.

I have traveled domestically and would travel to Asia if needed and able to do so. That said, my livelihood is largely based off of doing things other smarter people prefer not to do.

IMO, this is not a media frenzied event. While I know little about the science nature of the virus, I have never experienced this type of response to an event in my career. Stated weeks ago that China brass ever had the greatest overreaction ever or there is more to the story.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on February 25, 2020, 06:51:04 PM
MUDish

My travel, and my clients, is focused on Asia and our clients are on complete holding pattern. A large client was to be exhibiting at a large trade show in Germany next week and they were told today that show was cancelled until next February. This came roughy 7-10 days prior to show opening day.

I have traveled domestically and would travel to Asia if needed and able to do so. That said, my livelihood is largely based off of doing things other smarter people prefer not to do.

IMO, this is not a media frenzied event. While I know little about the science nature of the virus, I have never experienced this type of response to an event in my career. Stated weeks ago that China brass ever had the greatest overreaction ever or there is more to the story.

I'm going to a trade show in Germany Mar 30 - Apr 4.  20 pavilions including two that are the China Pavilion.  We were discussing if the show would continue or be cancelled.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 25, 2020, 06:59:39 PM
My mom's a nurse injector in Scottsdale and has been put on back order for their next order of masks for the OR. Just saying the panic is hitting

Edit: at the grocery store now and there is a ton of rows of van goods gone. People even stocking up like it's Y2K

i instructed my office to stock up on masks 2-3 weeks ago. i thought i was being proactive and the smartest kid on the block...i hope we got enough!! 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 25, 2020, 07:01:12 PM
i instructed my office to stock up on masks 2-3 weeks ago. i thought i was being proactive and the smartest kid on the block...i hope we got enough!! 

N95?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on February 25, 2020, 07:02:52 PM
Hards

The only mask.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 25, 2020, 07:03:56 PM
Hards

The only mask.

I know you guys are pros, but the rest of the public will just buy whatever they see... or probably whatever is left.

It was a silly question  :P
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 25, 2020, 07:06:44 PM
What really bugs me about all this is that this "being on the precipice of the early stages of the verge of panic" seems completely unnecessary.

Then again, even if CBP/CDC had acted proactively a month ago (when I first asked the question), would the situation be any better?

Nevertheless, all of this seems like it's now becoming a media darling, which means more sensationalism and fewer facts.  For one, initially I had feared transmission by the asymptomatic, which I was led to believe was synonymous with "pre-symptomatic."  Is this actually the case, or are there people who could be infected that will never develop symptoms (i.e. their immune system will be sufficient on its own)?  Unfortunately, it's hard to ascertain with the media and gov't so focused on ratings and campaigns.

i think you may be referring to a "carrier"  i.e. one can have hepatitis c without any signs/symptoms and still have the virus.  my understanding of the coronavirus is that if you have it, it starts out with a mild fever and/or cold-like symptoms. 

right now, it has been fatal for 2% of those coming down with it.  i have not heard, but i'm assuming it is most problematic with the very young, very old and those with compromised immune systems
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 25, 2020, 07:10:25 PM
N95?

this was all news to me.  never heard of an n95 but here it is...

https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-new-coronavirus.html

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: real chili 83 on February 25, 2020, 07:11:11 PM
I’m traveling in Fargo. Do I need to be worried?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ATL MU Warrior on February 25, 2020, 07:53:08 PM
I’m traveling in Fargo. Do I need to be worried?
Stay away from wood chippers and you’ll be fine.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on February 25, 2020, 08:35:46 PM

Since the real danger is exposing 15,000 people in a stadium .. you could eliminate that, and just have the games played in front of empty stadiums.   Billions on the line, might as well play the games.


Now .. schools on the other hand .. they would need to close.


.. In the end, I think the virus goes global and quarantines will be pointless. 


Not that I know anything, but my two kids were streptococcus carriers and infected my wife 6 times w/strep throat before we figured it out.  Kids were healthy as could be .. they just carried it and infected her and probably others until we treated them. 


There are asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers:


https://www.sciencealert.com/researchers-confirmed-patients-can-transmit-the-coronavirus-without-showing-symptoms (https://www.sciencealert.com/researchers-confirmed-patients-can-transmit-the-coronavirus-without-showing-symptoms)

They will not play it in empty stadiums.  Just the two teams and the broadcast crews are still hundreds of people.  That's too many.

And, if they "insist" on playing it and players (or TV crews) get sick, the NCAA is tied up in court paying out its billions in damages.

So, all or none.  It either goes off as planned or completely canceled.  No half-way.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 25, 2020, 11:32:14 PM
i think you may be referring to a "carrier"  i.e. one can have hepatitis c without any signs/symptoms and still have the virus.  my understanding of the coronavirus is that if you have it, it starts out with a mild fever and/or cold-like symptoms. 

right now, it has been fatal for 2% of those coming down with it.  i have not heard, but i'm assuming it is most problematic with the very young, very old and those with compromised immune systems

Depends if you believe the Chinese.  I don't.  Look what this thing does to countries like Iran without the resources that China can throw at it. 

I have also heard that asymptomatic carriers are likely.  That is part of what is making this very hard to slow down.  They can't find patient zero in Italy.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Mutaman on February 26, 2020, 12:05:49 AM
Stay away from wood chippers and you’ll be fine.

Post of the decade.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 26, 2020, 09:21:19 AM
Post of the decade.

Real good, Margie.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on February 26, 2020, 09:25:00 AM
Vigilance is obviously necessary, but I'm going to go on record as saying we will look back in 5 years on the Covid-19 virus hub bub as overblown and closer to SARs or Asian Birdflu than some global death pandemic.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on February 26, 2020, 09:34:02 AM
Vigilance is obviously necessary, but I'm going to go on record as saying we will look back in 5 years on the Covid-19 virus hub bub as overblown and closer to SARs or Asian Birdflu than some global death pandemic.

This.

Maybe just living in central Indiana gives a different perspective, but I see no indications of panic or chaos (empty shelves at the grocery).

Also, I rarely watch TV news, so that may have something to do with it as well.

Please note this is different than economic concerns with Chinese factories being closed.

At the time, the Ebola panic seemed way worse than what Corona is doing.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on February 26, 2020, 09:35:06 AM
Vigilance is obviously necessary, but I'm going to go on record as saying we will look back in 5 years on the Covid-19 virus hub bub as overblown and closer to SARs or Asian Birdflu than some global death pandemic.

After reading that Atlantic article I'm starting to lean this way.
I get the sense because this is "new", not being a flu virus but with similar symptoms, and not being flu means there are plenty of unknowns that everyone is assuming the worst. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 26, 2020, 10:35:56 AM
Found this website to have interesting data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)


81% of the cases (reported) are classified as "mild".  14% are 'severe' (developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.)   2% fatal.

If you don't have heart disease, diabetes, respiratory issues, hypertension or cancer .. the fatality rate is .9%.    That's further lower if you're under the age of 70.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on February 26, 2020, 10:37:08 AM
I believe the economic fallout is going to be the biggest part of the story. I have zero idea on how serious the virus is, but know that it is already causing major economic headaches. While I hope it is remembered like SARS, I am hoping the economic damage is not too severe.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on February 26, 2020, 10:42:41 AM
The big thing for me is that the death count is neither higher nor significant within non-at risk populations than any other virus out there. It may turn out to be more which is why you have to stay on top of it but it certainly doesn't rise to some sort of impact on my daily life at this point other than from a supply chain standpoint.

Here's where I think we have to find a better way to cover these types of things.....obviously the right information and details about Covid-19 is going to be slow moving, it is the nature of virology specifically and science generally, but the cadence of news coverage moves much faster than that so the content machine must be fed resulting in overstated or conflicting information. This is further exacerbated by the fact that these viruses are going to emerge in what I would term "information restricted" locations. Either due to infrastructure (developing or war torn countries like Syria, Congo, etc) or politically repressive countries (ie Iran, China, etc) useful information is not made available to where it can be consumed which leads to news coverage trying to fill the gaps with problematic/unverified information which leads to further misinformation.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on February 26, 2020, 10:43:59 AM
I believe the economic fallout is going to be the biggest part of the story. I have zero idea on how serious the virus is, but know that it is already causing major economic headaches. While I hope it is remembered like SARS, I am hoping the economic damage is not too severe.

I believe this will be what we remember this time in history by and I also think it will be a major inflection point in the diversification, redistribution, and automation of the global manufacturing footprint.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on February 26, 2020, 11:14:50 AM
I believe this will be what we remember this time in history by and I also think it will be a major inflection point in the diversification, redistribution, and automation of the global manufacturing footprint.

This is a reminder of the motivation, but in and of itself is not a catalyst for changing the supply chain.  Every company wants to be as close to their customers as possible while remaining economically efficient. 

Risk management, the increasing cost of labor in China and an increasingly competitive environment between the US & China are definitely considerations. 

However, automation advances and the dramatic reduction in cost to implement automation,  are the key enablers.  This is what will drive footprint changes as it reduces or even eliminates the penalty that exists today on getting close to your customer.  All this is already happening behind the scenes Covid-19 or not.

All my opinion of course.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 26, 2020, 11:23:10 AM
I know you guys are pros, but the rest of the public will just buy whatever they see... or probably whatever is left.

Looks like I finally have a use for all those P100 cartridges and Tyvek jumpsuits that I had forgotten I had put on Subscribe and Save.

Found this website to have interesting data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)


81% of the cases (reported) are classified as "mild".  14% are 'severe' (developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.)   2% fatal.

If you don't have heart disease, diabetes, respiratory issues, hypertension or cancer .. the fatality rate is .9%.    That's further lower if you're under the age of 70.

It bears repeating... this is a RESPIRATORY ILLNESS with flu-like symptoms (it is not "the flu").  So it would stand to reason that heavy smokers and those living in industrial areas with significant air quality issues - *cough* China *cough* *cough* *hack* *wheeze* (see what I did there) - would be more susceptible to a respiratory virus than the rest of us, i.e. Covid-19 is presumably less fatal in western, developed countries with smoking bans and Clean Air Acts.

With the disclaimer that I don't know if these statistics are relevant, or provide any meaningful comparison, a quick check of air quality measurements shows that the average "PM2.5" level in Wuhan in 2013 was 88.7.

Same metric for 2019 in Illinois: 9.2
Wisconsin: 7.4
California: 7.7
Texas: 8.4
New Jersey: 8.1

Again, not saying this actually means anything, but by the PM2.5 metric, air quality in Wuhan is 10x worse than the US.  Does that make them 10x as susceptible... probably not.  Would the prognosis for a COVID infection be significantly better for someone who's lived their entire life in the US... I would have to think 'yes.'
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 26, 2020, 11:29:00 AM
Here's where I think we have to find a better way to cover these types of things.....obviously the right information and details about Covid-19 is going to be slow moving, it is the nature of virology specifically and science generally, but the cadence of news coverage moves much faster than that so the content machine must be fed resulting in overstated or conflicting information. This is further exacerbated by the fact that these viruses are going to emerge in what I would term "information restricted" locations. Either due to infrastructure (developing or war torn countries like Syria, Congo, etc) or politically repressive countries (ie Iran, China, etc) useful information is not made available to where it can be consumed which leads to news coverage trying to fill the gaps with problematic/unverified information which leads to further misinformation.

C'mon, man.  Where's the cynicism?  What's with all the level-headed elegance?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on February 26, 2020, 11:48:57 AM
My fav comment today was, in regards to China having this fairly contained and it dying down, "China isn't my worry, its the rapid spread across the rest of the world"...if there was a disease that showed up in 5, 10, even 100 people in a country, it wouldn't begin to merit this level of hysteria.  If China is under control and vaccines in the works, I don't care about 1 person in Croatia, 3 people in St Louis, 5 in Helsinki.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on February 26, 2020, 12:04:08 PM
C'mon, man.  Where's the cynicism?  What's with all the level-headed elegance?

(https://media.giphy.com/media/FQyFJNXNRx6De/200.gif)

Better?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 26, 2020, 12:39:51 PM
If China is under control and vaccines in the works

You should read the Atlantic article that hilltopper linked.  But in case it's tl;dr

1) There is likely no long term vaccine.  if one can be created, it would be like the flu vaccine - you need to re-up every year - and not 100% effective.
2) If that can be created, it's probably at least 12 months from now.
3) it would be surprising if a large chunk of the population does not get the virus. 

I'm surprised how nonchalant the posts are today.

From the CDC call
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0221-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

Quote
We’re not seeing spread here in the United States yet, but it is possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen.  Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S

Quote
Therefore, it is possible that some of these people were already incubating the disease when they left japan. That is similar to, for example, what we’ve seen in just some of the travelers in the U.S.  I’ll remind you that some of the U.S. cases were asymptomatic when they came back in the U.S., and then developed symptoms several days later.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TSmith34 on February 26, 2020, 12:46:01 PM
Depends if you believe the Chinese.  I don't.  Look what this thing does to countries like Iran without the resources that China can throw at it. 

I have also heard that asymptomatic carriers are likely.  That is part of what is making this very hard to slow down.  They can't find patient zero in Italy.
Supposed to be traveling to Milan at the beginning of April, I guess it is wait and watch for now.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 26, 2020, 01:08:04 PM
Depends if you believe the Chinese.  I don't.  Look what this thing does to countries like Iran without the resources that China can throw at it. 

I have also heard that asymptomatic carriers are likely.  That is part of what is making this very hard to slow down.  They can't find patient zero in Italy.

  agree 100% however, i don't believe enough is known about asymptomatic carriers yet, but would not surprise me. 

it was the secrecy of the Chinese that allowed this thing to get out of control.  they could have corralled this thing way back with a little bit of humility and transparency. this is 2020, not 1818!!   makes one wonder if there were other motivations involved here.  the ramifications could unnecessarily be endless here.   
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 26, 2020, 01:22:12 PM
it was the secrecy of the Chinese that allowed this thing to get out of control.  they could have corralled this thing way back with a little bit of humility and transparency.

They probably could have handled it better, but I'm not so quick to judge. With up to 14 days of incubation, and it being a new virus I can see it being hard to get a handle on the fact that it's even happened.   The lockdown was unprecedented, and something the US will have trouble doing when it starts to spread here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/who-says-china-lockdown-blunted-new-epidemic-leading-to-decline
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on February 26, 2020, 01:37:26 PM
The lockdown was unprecedented, and something the US will have trouble doing when it starts to spread here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/who-says-china-lockdown-blunted-new-epidemic-leading-to-decline

This i can agree with.  When the Chinese government says something/gives a directive, the population complies unflinchingly.  Not so much in US, which isn't necessarily a bad thing in most cases, but it is here
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on February 26, 2020, 01:40:05 PM
Found this website to have interesting data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)


81% of the cases (reported) are classified as "mild".  14% are 'severe' (developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.)   2% fatal.

If you don't have heart disease, diabetes, respiratory issues, hypertension or cancer .. the fatality rate is .9%.    That's further lower if you're under the age of 70.

The demographic chart is reassuring to me. I have a 2 month old and have been worrying as everything I hear is that the "very young" are also high risk. Can there really be no fatalities? That doesn't seem possible.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on February 26, 2020, 01:41:28 PM
They probably could have handled it better, but I'm not so quick to judge. With up to 14 days of incubation, and it being a new virus I can see it being hard to get a handle on the fact that it's even happened.   The lockdown was unprecedented, and something the US will have trouble doing when it starts to spread here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/who-says-china-lockdown-blunted-new-epidemic-leading-to-decline

This is a good take, but sending the dr to jail when he raised alarm about a new disease tilts the scale less toward "its hard to get a handle on" and more toward "let's cover it up" in my opinion
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 26, 2020, 01:45:53 PM
Today's CDC transcript for those that like to read ... Or listen!

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 26, 2020, 02:22:16 PM
Today's CDC transcript for those that like to read ... Or listen!

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html (https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html)
You should ask your children’s school about their plans for school dismissals or school closures.  If ask if there are plans for teleschool.  I contacted my local school superintendent this morning with exactly those questions.
Ouch.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 26, 2020, 03:05:46 PM
This comes straight from the CDC:

Those Scoopers with a Fu Manchu had better change their 'stache to the Zorro or the Zappa or their new respirators won't work properly:

(https://i.insider.com/5e55b2f1fee23d7edc628104?width=650&format=jpeg&auto=webp)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 26, 2020, 03:08:55 PM
They probably could have handled it better, but I'm not so quick to judge. With up to 14 days of incubation, and it being a new virus I can see it being hard to get a handle on the fact that it's even happened.   The lockdown was unprecedented, and something the US will have trouble doing when it starts to spread here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/who-says-china-lockdown-blunted-new-epidemic-leading-to-decline

"handled it a little better" is a bit of an understatement since the doc tried warning them of this virus on or around december 3.  then he was detained by "police" and made to sign a document about spreading "falsehoods" and i'm sure the negative reinforcement was overwhelming except he "died from the virus" himself...hmmmm....

probably a little room for improvement here


https://thehill.com/policy/international/asia-pacific/481977-china-investigating-death-of-doctor-who-sounded-coronavirus
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 26, 2020, 03:21:56 PM
probably a little room for improvement here

Yes, it's awful the Chinese government silenced him. Mmmkay?  And unfortunate he died from it.

I don't believe the spread would have been much different if they hadn't.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: DegenerateDish on February 26, 2020, 06:13:06 PM
You should ask your children’s school about their plans for school dismissals or school closures.  If ask if there are plans for teleschool.  I contacted my local school superintendent this morning with exactly those questions.
Ouch.

I’ve been wondering about this the most. With February nearly over, and 3 months left in the school year, can the US get to the end of the school year before this sucker spreads? I would doubt it (?). I think a decent mile marker is if the US can get towards Memorial Day without a major outbreak.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: lawdog77 on February 26, 2020, 06:28:57 PM
This comes straight from the CDC:

Those Scoopers with a Fu Manchu had better change their 'stache to the Zorro or the Zappa or their new respirators won't work properly:

(https://i.insider.com/5e55b2f1fee23d7edc628104?width=650&format=jpeg&auto=webp)
The toothbrush? Who on earth would even grow that after Hitler?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on February 26, 2020, 06:34:34 PM
The toothbrush? Who on earth would even grow that after Hitler?

I toured a house the other day and the selling agent had one... it was uncomfortable
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on February 26, 2020, 06:37:52 PM
This comes straight from the CDC:

Those Scoopers with a Fu Manchu had better change their 'stache to the Zorro or the Zappa or their new respirators won't work properly:

(https://i.insider.com/5e55b2f1fee23d7edc628104?width=650&format=jpeg&auto=webp)

Ian Bremmer posted this with the caption “unclear Brooklyn survives Coronavirus “

I chuckled. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: RJax55 on February 26, 2020, 06:45:02 PM
I toured a house the other day and the selling agent had one... it was uncomfortable

The only guy I've ever seen with that look was Michael Jordan in those old Hanes ads.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 26, 2020, 07:01:36 PM
My fav comment today was, in regards to China having this fairly contained and it dying down, "China isn't my worry, its the rapid spread across the rest of the world"...if there was a disease that showed up in 5, 10, even 100 people in a country, it wouldn't begin to merit this level of hysteria.  If China is under control and vaccines in the works, I don't care about 1 person in Croatia, 3 people in St Louis, 5 in Helsinki.

Allow me to explain why you should.  China lies.  China lies.  I can't type it enough.  I can't say it enough.  If people are moving around the world, asymptomatic for a week or two and infecting other people these 1, 3, and 5 people bloom into clusters. 
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/NewWeightyAtlanticspadefish-size_restricted.gif)

Now, China can shut that down.  Just look at the major cities.  They slam the doors closed, and implement draconian (very effective) measures.  The rest of the world doesn't operate like China.  The US can't enforce the measures that China took.

You and I might not die from the virus.  What MIGHT happen is all the beds are full with Covid2019 patients.  Where does the normal flow of people who go to the ER or the hospital end up?  There isn't enough workers, or hospitals to tend to everyone, and people will die from things other than Covid2019.  Not to mention all the people who will show up to the ER and Urgent Cares... who SWEAR they have the virus, and demand antibiotics, and who aren't being seen fast enough.  What this virus does is completely and totally overwhelms the medical communities ability to do their job.  If anything close to 20% of people who contract Covid2019 require hospitalization or extended care we are boned. 

I'm not panicking, but I'm taking this very seriously.  The economic impact will be enormous unless this is gone in a month.  Even then, it will be bad.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on February 26, 2020, 07:11:11 PM
 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-cdc-usa.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-cdc-usa.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur)

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 26, 2020, 08:01:06 PM
Allow me to explain why you should.  China lies.  China lies.  I can't type it enough.  I can't say it enough.  If people are moving around the world, asymptomatic for a week or two and infecting other people these 1, 3, and 5 people bloom into clusters. 
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/NewWeightyAtlanticspadefish-size_restricted.gif)

Now, China can shut that down.  Just look at the major cities.  They slam the doors closed, and implement draconian (very effective) measures.  The rest of the world doesn't operate like China.  The US can't enforce the measures that China took.

You and I might not die from the virus.  What MIGHT happen is all the beds are full with Covid2019 patients.  Where does the normal flow of people who go to the ER or the hospital end up?  There isn't enough workers, or hospitals to tend to everyone, and people will die from things other than Covid2019.  Not to mention all the people who will show up to the ER and Urgent Cares... who SWEAR they have the virus, and demand antibiotics, and who aren't being seen fast enough.  What this virus does is completely and totally overwhelms the medical communities ability to do their job.  If anything close to 20% of people who contract Covid2019 require hospitalization or extended care we are boned. 

I'm not panicking, but I'm taking this very seriously.  The economic impact will be enormous unless this is gone in a month.  Even then, it will be bad.

wow hards!  you're becoming my hero man! 

   they're saying, if you are having a heart attack, stroke, bleeding to death in china...sorry, but we've got sick people to attend to, but we'll take a kidney or 2 :D

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 26, 2020, 08:15:17 PM
wow hards!  you're becoming my hero man! 

   they're saying, if you are having a heart attack, stroke, bleeding to death in china...sorry, but we've got sick people to attend to, but we'll take a kidney or 2 :D

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not... So I'll assume no.

This guy is a great resource for understanding basic epidemiology.  I can't remember how to embed videos, and there isn't a button on here

https://youtu.be/dnE9O-vV-ws
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 26, 2020, 08:49:44 PM
Supposed to be traveling to Milan at the beginning of April, I guess it is wait and watch for now.

A series of major science conferences that occur in Italy has rescheduled and moved all conferences out of Italy.

Italy is going to be an issue for a little while.

For those saying the fatality rate in Western countries will be lower than in China...

Italy has a 3% fatality rate, which is likely understating the actual values as most cases are new, and have not gotten to the dangerous high-risk phase of the illness yet.

Regarding the Atlantic article. The epidemiologist there is using similar models as my colleagues that I posted about a couple weeks ago. Then and now, I believe their models are inaccurate. They are over-estimating the number of undiagnosed cases in the US by a considerable margin in my opinion. But the recent developments in Italy and other countries might end up making their models accurate, but delayed by 2-4 weeks.

We are in wait and see mode. I am optimistic, place the risk of global pandemic and major number of deaths in the US at around 30%.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 26, 2020, 09:14:15 PM
If people are moving around the world, asymptomatic for a week or two and infecting other people these 1, 3, and 5 people bloom into clusters.

To be clear, that's a very big if. We know you can be asymptomatic for a couple weeks. I don't think anybody has proven (or disproven) that it's contagious while asymptomatic.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 26, 2020, 09:21:42 PM
To be clear, that's a very big if. We know you can be asymptomatic for a couple weeks. I don't think anybody has proven (or disproven) that it's contagious while asymptomatic.

Very true
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 26, 2020, 09:28:38 PM
Very true

But on the other hand, to those that think it was merely China not responding correctly, Germany (very advanced) admits they can't track it:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-02-26/germany-is-at-start-of-coronavirus-epidemic-health-minister
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 26, 2020, 10:04:09 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-us-developments/index.html

Not a good development. It means that we are not tracking things well here either, and some of the estimates in the epidemiology models may be accurate.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 27, 2020, 06:46:26 AM
I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not... So I'll assume no.

This guy is a great resource for understanding basic epidemiology.  I can't remember how to embed videos, and there isn't a button on here

https://youtu.be/dnE9O-vV-ws

Nope, no sarcasm.  I’m impressed by your DD and the following of the bouncing ball here.

Your video on the epidemiology is disturbingly informational.

Note-January 30...over 30 days after the virus has been suspected and/or identified, the world health organization declares the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
    This is the same organization whose leader was “accused” of covering up 3 cholera epidemics. This is not the organization we need or want to have any semblance of politicization whatsoever.  This is where everyone’s b.s. detector should go into overdrive. Can you imagine chinas control over some such entity?  Put it this way...the only thing worse than this outbreak having it’s origins in China Is if a nuclear incident did the same. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/13/health/candidate-who-director-general-ethiopia-cholera-outbreaks.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: DegenerateDish on February 27, 2020, 10:40:43 AM
I saw that Japan is closing their schools for a month. I always also think the market knows more than anyone else, so I'm at the point where I'm going to go stock up on non-perishables, and explain to my kids what's going on in the world and how that might impact things.

Our company ceased all international travel effective immediately this morning, and advised that any meetings that can be done domestically over video conference should start immediately over domestic travel.

I'm not the kind of person to usually be skeptical about the hype around these types of things, but I also want to be practical and prepare. I forgot who said it in this thread, but stocking up on things like pasta, frozen foods, can't hurt. Gonna use them eventually anyway, might as well buy a bunch in case we all have to hunker down.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 27, 2020, 11:27:18 AM
Serious question, though .. once COVID19 is widespread .. enough to be, for example, in Milwaukee, would quarantines matter?   

What's the theory of what could happen?    I don't see the food/grocery industry crumbling, besides some specifics being halted.    If it was widespread, I don't see mass quarantines being effective -- the horse has left the barn.

So .. what's the theory? 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on February 27, 2020, 11:41:52 AM
Serious question, though .. once COVID19 is widespread .. enough to be, for example, in Milwaukee, would quarantines matter?   

What's the theory of what could happen?    I don't see the food/grocery industry crumbling, besides some specifics being halted.    If it was widespread, I don't see mass quarantines being effective -- the horse has left the barn.

So .. what's the theory?

Good question.

Does it just become a seasonal thing like the flu at that point? If so, do we get some respite by the time May rolls around? Might give more time to prepare for the next round with vaccines, antivirals, etc. like we handle the flu.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: real chili 83 on February 27, 2020, 11:44:48 AM
I’m going to get inoculated at Real Chili Saturday night.  The cure for whatever ails you.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on February 27, 2020, 11:53:40 AM
Serious question, though .. once COVID19 is widespread .. enough to be, for example, in Milwaukee, would quarantines matter?   

What's the theory of what could happen?    I don't see the food/grocery industry crumbling, besides some specifics being halted.    If it was widespread, I don't see mass quarantines being effective -- the horse has left the barn.

So .. what's the theory?

Remember how N1H1 crippled everything in 2009......yeah nobody does. I think there is no doubt that a Covid-19 pandemic would be tragic for those impacted but I have yet to see anything that tells me this is some sort of crippling event. It could be and you generally want to fight to take that outcome off the table so all actions to date make sense but I'm not anywhere near to putting my money into canned foods and shotgun shells.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 27, 2020, 12:10:46 PM
Luckily, CDC has an answer just for this

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html
Quote
What May Happen
More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It’s also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, workplaces, and other places for mass gatherings may experience more absenteeism. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on February 27, 2020, 12:17:30 PM
I've seen at least one upper level pro soccer match in Europe played in an empty stadium due to concerns.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 27, 2020, 12:40:49 PM
Serious question, though .. once COVID19 is widespread .. enough to be, for example, in Milwaukee, would quarantines matter?   

What's the theory of what could happen?    I don't see the food/grocery industry crumbling, besides some specifics being halted.    If it was widespread, I don't see mass quarantines being effective -- the horse has left the barn.

So .. what's the theory?

Exactly.  I thought about buying some extra N95's yesterday just to have on hand, and I had second thoughts about the risks of taking a flight to go see some stupid basketball tournament.

Then I had an epiphany because it is not just some stupid basketball tournament and everyone's sold out of masks... so I asked myself what's the downside, Benny?  The downside is postponing exposure to the virus.

Any non-millennials remember chicken pox parties?

Yes, I realize this is going to be a very unpopular opinion, but I would rather be one of the first 10,000 cases in the US than one of ten million cases.  If there is a modicum of inevitability here, send me some of that delicious Wuhan pork belly right now, because the sooner I can get into the hospital, the sooner I can get out... and I'd rather get in while there's still a good supply of beds, supplies, staff, etc.  That said, I'm in perfect health, I don't smoke, and as long as my hermetic cube has wi-fi, I can work.  So I'd much rather take my chances with a virus having a 0.9% risk given my access to proper medical care.

In the absence of vaccination, inoculation is preferable to the futility of prevention.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on February 27, 2020, 01:03:48 PM
I just noticed something interesting. Every time there's a new post in this thread, the Dow rises by 2% or drops by 4%.

Oops...there it goes again.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: RushmoreAcademy on February 27, 2020, 01:20:47 PM
I've seen at least one upper level pro soccer match in Europe played in an empty stadium due to concerns.

What affect will it have on the MU student section?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: DegenerateDish on February 27, 2020, 01:21:48 PM
Exactly.  I thought about buying some extra N95's yesterday just to have on hand, and I had second thoughts about the risks of taking a flight to go see some stupid basketball tournament.

Then I had an epiphany because it is not just some stupid basketball tournament and everyone's sold out of masks... so I asked myself what's the downside, Benny?  The downside is postponing exposure to the virus.

Any non-millennials remember chicken pox parties?

Yes, I realize this is going to be a very unpopular opinion, but I would rather be one of the first 10,000 cases in the US than one of ten million cases.  If there is a modicum of inevitability here, send me some of that delicious Wuhan pork belly right now, because the sooner I can get into the hospital, the sooner I can get out... and I'd rather get in while there's still a good supply of beds, supplies, staff, etc.  That said, I'm in perfect health, I don't smoke, and as long as my hermetic cube has wi-fi, I can work.  So I'd much rather take my chances with a virus having a 0.9% risk given my access to proper medical care.

In the absence of vaccination, inoculation is preferable to the futility of prevention.

I'm going to ask an incredibly dumb question...

So once you get it, and it passes through your system, are you then fine from getting the same strain again? I mean I know I can get the flu multiple times in the year, I guess what I'm asking is to your point, if I get it, get done with it, am I then fine to be around other people that have it?

Feel free to call me dumb for asking this.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 27, 2020, 01:23:57 PM
The downside is postponing exposure to the virus.

Any non-millennials remember chicken pox parties?

Yes, I realize this is going to be a very unpopular opinion, but I would rather be one of the first 10,000 cases in the US than one of ten million cases.

I kinda agree, but I think I'll let you try it first.

Another though, all this NCAA tournament talk... If it spreads enough that teams start getting it (forget the fans), you have to postpone... Right?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on February 27, 2020, 01:36:23 PM
I'm going to ask an incredibly dumb question...

So once you get it, and it passes through your system, are you then fine from getting the same strain again? I mean I know I can get the flu multiple times in the year, I guess what I'm asking is to your point, if I get it, get done with it, am I then fine to be around other people that have it?

Feel free to call me dumb for asking this.


Yes.  You should be innoculated for the rest of your life providing you get it strong enough to develop the antibodies or your immune system isn't compromised.

If you get the flu multiple times in a year, you are getting different strains.  (And I really doubt that is happening - you are most likely getting a norovirus that people are incorrectly calling the flu)

And this is what bothers me about when people don't get the flu shot and complain that they get sick anyway.  You aren't likely getting the flu.  The last time I had the flu, I was knocked out for a week.  It's much different than a 24-48 hour bug.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on February 27, 2020, 01:38:16 PM
I saw that Japan is closing their schools for a month. I always also think the market knows more than anyone else, so I'm at the point where I'm going to go stock up on non-perishables, and explain to my kids what's going on in the world and how that might impact things.

I will say one thing about the market reaction.  There will absolutely be a global impact on supply chain and the like, but this market was euphoric and apparently immune to any negative stimulus for the last 6-9 months.  There was a BIG gap to backfill, and this is the first geopolitical factor to start pushing it.  We've just backfilled to December.  So I don't know if thats a good indicator of how serious it is in a pandemic sense, but rather all the blind buying has finally been forced to address the worlds second largest economy essentially shutting down for a month.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on February 27, 2020, 01:41:21 PM

Yes.  You should be innoculated for the rest of your life providing you get it strong enough to develop the antibodies or your immune system isn't compromised.


And provided the virus doesn't mutate, which is a greater than 0% possibility.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on February 27, 2020, 01:42:42 PM
And provided the virus doesn't mutate, which is a greater than 0% possibility.


Right, but Dish was talking about the "same strain."
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 27, 2020, 02:04:38 PM
Exactly.  I thought about buying some extra N95's yesterday just to have on hand..


I did this yesterday.  Amazon is basically out, so I turned to eBay.  Brought up a couple of "buy it now" pages.  After 5-10 minutes, I refreshed the pages and poof, one was gone .. the other went from $60 to $100 for a pack of 10 N95 masks.


I did another search and found a pack of 15 for $65 and bought it instantly.  I'll probably sell it for $6500 if it arrives in the mail. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 27, 2020, 02:10:14 PM
I'm going to ask an incredibly dumb question...

So once you get it, and it passes through your system, are you then fine from getting the same strain again? I mean I know I can get the flu multiple times in the year, I guess what I'm asking is to your point, if I get it, get done with it, am I then fine to be around other people that have it?

Feel free to call me dumb for asking this.

many unknowns yet...concerns that the virus could infect you, you recover, but the virus then remains dormant only to reoccur if you had say minimal to limited infection, your body doesn't develop as strong an antibody(s) toward, then you can become reinfected with the same virus from within your body

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/484942-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-reinfected
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 27, 2020, 02:12:41 PM
Yes.  You should be innoculated for the rest of your life providing you get it strong enough to develop the antibodies or your immune system isn't compromised.

Let me start with: I'm not certain, please correct if I'm wrong

Just like the flu vaccine is only good for a short period (one "season"), you can also get the same flu strain every year - but not usually twice in a single year.

I don't think there's any "rest of your life" innoculations for any Coronavirus (which includes the common cold).  Otherwise we'd get a shot for that!
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 27, 2020, 02:15:47 PM
Thanks rocket, I've heard murmurs of reinfections too (in Chinese medical staff), but don't want to spread that around much until we understand more.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jficke13 on February 27, 2020, 02:19:13 PM
Thanks rocket, I've heard murmurs of reinfections too (in Chinese medical staff), but don't want to spread that around much until we understand more.

One of the hallmarks of the 1918 flu was that some people who "recovered" from the influenza would relapse and die of ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) caused by a massive secondary infection of pneumonia. The idea that we've got to explain that is that the viral respiratory did enough damage to the lungs that people were at a hugely increased risk of secondary infection. I'm not sure whether there's enough time and trustworthy data about whether a similar secondary infection risk exists, but if it does that might explain "reinfections" and also be very concerning.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on February 27, 2020, 02:43:03 PM
Good question.

Does it just become a seasonal thing like the flu at that point? If so, do we get some respite by the time May rolls around? Might give more time to prepare for the next round with vaccines, antivirals, etc. like we handle the flu.

Coleman,. Read The Atlantic article.  Many epidemogists are already  of the opinion every fall will become Cold, Flu and Coronavirus season.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on February 27, 2020, 03:06:52 PM

Yes.  You should be innoculated for the rest of your life providing you get it strong enough to develop the antibodies or your immune system isn't compromised.

If you get the flu multiple times in a year, you are getting different strains.  (And I really doubt that is happening - you are most likely getting a norovirus that people are incorrectly calling the flu)

And this is what bothers me about when people don't get the flu shot and complain that they get sick anyway.  You aren't likely getting the flu.  The last time I had the flu, I was knocked out for a week.  It's much different than a 24-48 hour bug.

I dont know that I would rely on this as fact.  I read something last night that someone in Japan was re-infected. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on February 27, 2020, 04:14:06 PM
I wouldn't rely on anything I post as fact.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 27, 2020, 05:04:32 PM
I dont know that I would rely on this as fact.  I read something last night that someone in Japan was re-infected. 

Someone who stayed at a Holiday Inn Express please correct me if wrong, but aren't "dormancy" and "reinfection" different things?  (Fortunately) I'm not an expert with herpes, but when it recurs, I've never heard that called a re-infection.

I wouldn't rely on anything I post as fact.

Except the part about norovirus.... that one is facty, fact, fact, fact.  It's a Superfacta.  (It floors me just how many people don't understand that a "stomach flu" is not influenza.)




Still, the point remains... if infection is inevitable, the possibility of reinfection is irrelevant.  So why postpone until the big wave hits?  Why not get your laps in during low tide?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on February 27, 2020, 05:09:52 PM
Someone who stayed at a Holiday Inn Express please correct me if wrong, but aren't "dormancy" and "reinfection" different things?  (Fortunately) I'm not an expert with herpes, but when it recurs, I've never heard that called a re-infection.

This is the news article version — so Holiday Inn all the way.

 https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/484942-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-reinfected (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/484942-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-reinfected)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: 4everwarriors on February 27, 2020, 05:29:52 PM
What affect will it have on the MU student section?



Likely ta result in more booin', hey?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 27, 2020, 06:03:26 PM

Yes.  You should be innoculated for the rest of your life providing you get it strong enough to develop the antibodies or your immune system isn't compromised.

If you get the flu multiple times in a year, you are getting different strains.  (And I really doubt that is happening - you are most likely getting a norovirus that people are incorrectly calling the flu)

And this is what bothers me about when people don't get the flu shot and complain that they get sick anyway.  You aren't likely getting the flu.  The last time I had the flu, I was knocked out for a week.  It's much different than a 24-48 hour bug.

No. There are already reported incidents of individuals getting infected a second time, only a month later. There will not be long-term immunity here. The common cold is caused by circulating coronavirus's that aren't mutating, we just don't generate long-term immunity against them.

So even if a vaccine is created, you'd likely need it quite regularly, and it would be only moderately effective.

edit: my apologies for restating the same thing others have now chimed in with. Didn't read through the entire thread yet.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 27, 2020, 06:07:40 PM
Serious question, though .. once COVID19 is widespread .. enough to be, for example, in Milwaukee, would quarantines matter?   

What's the theory of what could happen?    I don't see the food/grocery industry crumbling, besides some specifics being halted.    If it was widespread, I don't see mass quarantines being effective -- the horse has left the barn.

So .. what's the theory?

This is a great question, and one I have pondered. At a certain tipping point, there will be no chance of containment anymore. After that point, containment will be very expensive, and will have no global effect. At that point any resources should be going to treat those afflicted.

Two problems with that. When is that point of no return? And politically speaking, no one is going to be ok with giving in and just focusing on treatment. Even more complicated by the fact that:

1) We do not have the medical resources to treat a large scale epidemic.
2) Even to maintain the status quo, we need equipment, resources, and medications that are largely produced in China, who isn't producing/distributing them right now.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on February 27, 2020, 06:18:48 PM
My sister factory in Zhongshan is considering purchasing the machine used to make masks. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 27, 2020, 07:21:19 PM
This is a great question, and one I have pondered. At a certain tipping point, there will be no chance of containment anymore. After that point, containment will be very expensive, and will have no global effect. At that point any resources should be going to treat those afflicted.

Two problems with that. When is that point of no return? And politically speaking, no one is going to be ok with giving in and just focusing on treatment. Even more complicated by the fact that:

1) We do not have the medical resources to treat a large scale epidemic.
2) Even to maintain the status quo, we need equipment, resources, and medications that are largely produced in China, who isn't producing/distributing them right now.

Basically this.  The cat is out of the bag, and she isn't going back in.  And to use another turn of phrase, the wheels have come off the bus at this point.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on February 27, 2020, 09:02:42 PM
No. There are already reported incidents of individuals getting infected a second time, only a month later. There will not be long-term immunity here. The common cold is caused by circulating coronavirus's that aren't mutating, we just don't generate long-term immunity against them.

So even if a vaccine is created, you'd likely need it quite regularly, and it would be only moderately effective.

edit: my apologies for restating the same thing others have now chimed in with. Didn't read through the entire thread yet.

Are those people actually talking infected a second time?  Or did the original infection go dormant. Because I have been reading that while you are correct that lifetime immunity isn’t a thing, that how long immunity lasts with this isn’t known.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 27, 2020, 09:06:49 PM
My sister factory in Zhongshan is considering purchasing the machine used to make masks.

which masks?  there are not enough of the n95's and if they weren't expensive 6 mos ago, i'm sure you aren't going to find them on sale now.  also, if you aren't infected, the masks aren't going to do anything for you. 



"Sorrell said there's no reason to use a surgical mask if you're healthy and not infected.

"The virus itself is so small that it can penetrate the mask," she said. "So it literally does nothing for you."

"The only reason to wear a surgical mask is if you're already infected with the virus and are quarantined, according to Sorrell. Hence, if you're staying at home from work or from school, and you're trying not to infect your family members, you should wear a mask.

Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Carver College of Medicine at University of Iowa and a longtime coronavirus researcher, said surgical masks aren't as good as keeping the virus out because they have larger pores."



https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/clarissajanlim/coronavirus-questions-masks-hand-sanitizers




Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 27, 2020, 09:10:05 PM
Are those people actually talking infected a second time?  Or did the original infection go dormant. Because I have been reading that while you are correct that lifetime immunity isn’t a thing, that how long immunity lasts with this isn’t known.

No possible way to know 100% either way. Honestly, I hope it is a reinfection. It being able to go dormant for a month would make it impossible to contain.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 27, 2020, 09:49:17 PM
Hmm.

https://www.cbs58.com/news/wisconsin-police-department-offers-to-test-your-meth-for-coronavirus

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 27, 2020, 11:04:10 PM
Hmm.

https://www.cbs58.com/news/wisconsin-police-department-offers-to-test-your-meth-for-coronavirus

might as well get a tax stamp while they're at it ,ey
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 28, 2020, 04:59:49 AM
which masks?  there are not enough of the n95's and if they weren't expensive 6 mos ago, i'm sure you aren't going to find them on sale now.  also, if you aren't infected, the masks aren't going to do anything for you. 



"Sorrell said there's no reason to use a surgical mask if you're healthy and not infected.

"The virus itself is so small that it can penetrate the mask," she said. "So it literally does nothing for you."

"The only reason to wear a surgical mask is if you're already infected with the virus and are quarantined, according to Sorrell. Hence, if you're staying at home from work or from school, and you're trying not to infect your family members, you should wear a mask.

Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Carver College of Medicine at University of Iowa and a longtime coronavirus researcher, said surgical masks aren't as good as keeping the virus out because they have larger pores."



https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/clarissajanlim/coronavirus-questions-masks-hand-sanitizers

From what I've read, the virus isn't airborne.  It does however reside on droplets and aerosol particles... which the N95 should easily block.  But I agree with your first sentence, and would add that buying up the machine that manufactures masks would probably be the definition of buying high.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on February 28, 2020, 10:27:29 AM
I remember exactly how excited Benny was when he imagined himself driving a B-2 to the liquor store for more tequila. 

Although, if I grew a beard, it would probably be more Joe Dirt than Tandy Miller.

(https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=59849.0;attach=8900;image)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on February 28, 2020, 08:21:35 PM
As someone once said, “it’s the economy, stupid”.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Phuket MU Fan on February 28, 2020, 08:48:21 PM
This article is slightly dated, but makes for interesting reading.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3051068/we-owe-it-god-indonesia-prays-how-it-keeping
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: DiaperDandy on February 28, 2020, 09:17:22 PM
which masks?  there are not enough of the n95's and if they weren't expensive 6 mos ago, i'm sure you aren't going to find them on sale now.  also, if you aren't infected, the masks aren't going to do anything for you. 





"Sorrell said there's no reason to use a surgical mask if you're healthy and not infected.

"The virus itself is so small that it can penetrate the mask," she said. "So it literally does nothing for you."

"The only reason to wear a surgical mask is if you're already infected with the virus and are quarantined, according to Sorrell. Hence, if you're staying at home from work or from school, and you're trying not to infect your family members, you should wear a mask.

Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Carver College of Medicine at University of Iowa and a longtime coronavirus researcher, said surgical masks aren't as good as keeping the virus out because they have larger pores."



https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/clarissajanlim/coronavirus-questions-masks-hand-sanitizers

I work in a hospital and happen to get fit tested each year for 95 masks so let me clarify.  The author Is correct in stating the surgical masks will not offer protection against the virus.  Surgical masks are used strictly
In the surgical field and their main purpose is so keep facial hair and large droplets of sweat/saliva from Entering the surgical field. 

The n95 is NOT a surgical mask
nor is it used by clinicians while working in the surgical field.  The n95 is a respirator rated mask
That shields you from airborn contaminants and pathogens.  It is worn by clinicians and staff when entering isolation rooms
To treat patients that are in isolation (think tB patients).  This mask will protect you from the virus if it is airborn and worn correctly (hence the fit test each year.  If worn incorrectly or with facial hair, the mask loses its ability to offer protection).  This mask may not offer 100% protection from the virus, however, I can guarantee you it will protect you a LOT better than a surgical mask.  I laugh whenever I see people in public wearing those things because they are not offering any type of protection...
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 28, 2020, 09:51:06 PM
I work in a hospital and happen to get fit tested each year for 95 masks so let me clarify.  The author Is correct in stating the surgical masks will not offer protection against the virus.  Surgical masks are used strictly
In the surgical field and their main purpose is so keep facial hair and large droplets of sweat/saliva from Entering the surgical field. 

The n95 is NOT a surgical mask
nor is it used by clinicians while working in the surgical field.  The n95 is a respirator rated mask
That shields you from airborn contaminants and pathogens.  It is worn by clinicians and staff when entering isolation rooms
To treat patients that are in isolation (think tB patients).  This mask will protect you from the virus if it is airborn and worn correctly (hence the fit test each year.  If worn incorrectly or with facial hair, the mask loses its ability to offer protection).  This mask may not offer 100% protection from the virus, however, I can guarantee you it will protect you a LOT better than a surgical mask.  I laugh whenever I see people in public wearing those things because they are not offering any type of protection...

The surgical masks worn in public are worn as a kindness if you are sick and don't want to spread to others.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 28, 2020, 11:37:04 PM
I work in a hospital and happen to get fit tested each year for 95 masks so let me clarify.  The author Is correct in stating the surgical masks will not offer protection against the virus.  Surgical masks are used strictly
In the surgical field and their main purpose is so keep facial hair and large droplets of sweat/saliva from Entering the surgical field. 

The n95 is NOT a surgical mask
nor is it used by clinicians while working in the surgical field.  The n95 is a respirator rated mask
That shields you from airborn contaminants and pathogens.  It is worn by clinicians and staff when entering isolation rooms
To treat patients that are in isolation (think tB patients).  This mask will protect you from the virus if it is airborn and worn correctly (hence the fit test each year.  If worn incorrectly or with facial hair, the mask loses its ability to offer protection).  This mask may not offer 100% protection from the virus, however, I can guarantee you it will protect you a LOT better than a surgical mask.  I laugh whenever I see people in public wearing those things because they are not offering any type of protection...


good info DD!!  that's the stuff we need to hear. 

  hards comment is also insightful.      also, i think, many wear the mask for psychological purposes as well

hint,  if you are on a flight that isn't full and you want a little extra room, put one of those bad boys on or put a pair of sun glasses on to look extra bad ass
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 29, 2020, 08:10:06 AM
Here's the CDC Friday transcript.  A little light on info.  You can tell the message has been, ahem, softened by those above the CDC.  But hey, border control!

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0228-COVID-19-update.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 29, 2020, 08:30:32 AM
South Koreas numbers today are... not reassuring.

10 days later, and they are over 3000.  They're the model.

Doomsday cult really had a incredible effect.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on February 29, 2020, 09:35:35 AM
We were all gonna die of AIDS if we came near, touched, or even sat on the same toilet seat as someone with HIV.

We were all gonna get brains that looked like Swiss cheese if we ate beef. We were all gonna die of Avian Flu, then Swine Flu, than MERS, then SARS, then Ebola.

Now we're all gonna die of coronavirus infection, or reinfection.

I get that any virus or any novel illness could be a blip on the screen or the end of humanity. But the reaction to this particular one is more extreme than any I can recall since the AIDS crisis. Maybe it's the 25-hour-per-day news cycle or maybe it's the real Armegeddon, but I'm not gonna let this affect my daily life any more than the others did. And in the unlikely event I die or get horribly ill, at least I will have lived my life the best I could.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 29, 2020, 09:41:56 AM
I'm not gonna let this affect my daily life any more than the others did. And in the unlikely event I die or get horribly ill, at least I will have lived my life the best I could.

That's fair, and I'm not trying to fear-monger.  But I do think that people should understand that this is a serious illness.  China custom built 2 hospitals in a couple weeks to handle the cases.  That doesn't happen for the flu, though the hospitals were modeled after one that china built for Sars.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on February 29, 2020, 09:50:43 AM
Here's the CDC Friday transcript.  A little light on info.  You can tell the message has been, ahem, softened by those above the CDC.  But hey, border control!

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0228-COVID-19-update.html

CDC has been silenced by the gov’t. All releases must be approved by Dear Leader or his anti-science Mini Me.

Following China’s model.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jsglow on February 29, 2020, 09:51:14 AM
We were all gonna die of AIDS if we came near, touched, or even sat on the same toilet seat as someone with HIV.

We were all gonna get brains that looked like Swiss cheese if we ate beef. We were all gonna die of Avian Flu, then Swine Flu, than MERS, then SARS, then Ebola.

Now we're all gonna die of coronavirus infection, or reinfection.

I get that any virus or any novel illness could be a blip on the screen or the end of humanity. But the reaction to this particular one is more extreme than any I can recall since the AIDS crisis. Maybe it's the 25-hour-per-day news cycle or maybe it's the real Armegeddon, but I'm not gonna let this affect my daily life any more than the others did. And in the unlikely event I die or get horribly ill, at least I will have lived my life the best I could.

Word.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 29, 2020, 09:58:11 AM
We were all gonna die of AIDS if we came near, touched, or even sat on the same toilet seat as someone with HIV.

We were all gonna get brains that looked like Swiss cheese if we ate beef. We were all gonna die of Avian Flu, then Swine Flu, than MERS, then SARS, then Ebola.

Now we're all gonna die of coronavirus infection, or reinfection.

I get that any virus or any novel illness could be a blip on the screen or the end of humanity. But the reaction to this particular one is more extreme than any I can recall since the AIDS crisis. Maybe it's the 25-hour-per-day news cycle or maybe it's the real Armegeddon, but I'm not gonna let this affect my daily life any more than the others did. And in the unlikely event I die or get horribly ill, at least I will have lived my life the best I could.

Regarding Avian flu, MERS, SARS, and Ebola. The reason millions didn't die on mass in the US and other major countries are two fold.

1. Nations immediately and aggressively responded on mass to stop the spread of the illnesses.
2. All of those were extremely deadly, and were not easy to spread. Meaning, when you became infectious, you were already near death and unable to spread it widely.

The former is true here, the latter is not, which makes this deadly if people do not take this extremely serious. Covid will already have a greater impact health wise and economy wise than any of the above.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on February 29, 2020, 10:08:04 AM
Fascinating read ..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/28/i-have-coronavirus-so-far-it-isnt-that-bad/
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: WarriorDad on February 29, 2020, 10:19:27 AM
This is a good topic without the politics.


https://youtu.be/39A7Tr-H29E
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 29, 2020, 11:31:36 AM
This is a good topic without the politics.


https://youtu.be/39A7Tr-H29E


Ah yes, the, "Blame the media" dogs are out.  Dr. Drew is a media personality, barely a practicing doctor.  He is eating up the attention, just like he always has.  Maybe he should call up Dr. Phil and collaborate on how to save this process.

I'd say that in bizarro world, Dr. Drew is just trying to tow the Trump line here to get a job in the administration... but unfortunately...
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 29, 2020, 01:38:11 PM
  see hards, you were all good until this-no need to bring politics into this. argue the facts that dr drew brings up-many more influenza cases, hospitalizations and deaths.  fact.  the dr phil comment further weakened your post.  barely a doctor?  so what does that mean?  he finished near the bottom of his class? doesn't matter if he completed all the requirements, he's a DOCTOR. 

    he's stating what he knows and believes.  if it just so happens the present administration has a spot or a need for dr drew, fine.  every admin seeks to add people who strengthen their positions regardless the issue, just as the opposing people do the same

  the media has been beating this issue up.  they are creating conversation with others that ad nothing but politics to this and that is the last thing we need right now.  ebola, i believe was much more deadly and everything worked out
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on February 29, 2020, 01:47:14 PM
  see hards, you were all good until this-no need to bring politics into this. argue the facts that dr drew brings up-many more influenza cases, hospitalizations and deaths.  fact.  the dr phil comment further weakened your post.  barely a doctor?  so what does that mean?  he finished near the bottom of his class? doesn't matter if he completed all the requirements, he's a DOCTOR. 

    he's stating what he knows and believes.  if it just so happens the present administration has a spot or a need for dr drew, fine.  every admin seeks to add people who strengthen their positions regardless the issue, just as the opposing people do the same

  the media has been beating this issue up.  they are creating conversation with others that ad nothing but politics to this and that is the last thing we need right now.  ebola, i believe was much more deadly and everything worked out

Barely a doctor means that he doesn’t really practice medicine much. More interested in PR.

And Ebola was spread in a much different manner AND more deadly. Which is why it was easier to contain.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on February 29, 2020, 01:58:23 PM
  see hards, you were all good until this-no need to bring politics into this. argue the facts that dr drew brings up-many more influenza cases, hospitalizations and deaths.  fact.  the dr phil comment further weakened your post.  barely a doctor?  so what does that mean?  he finished near the bottom of his class? doesn't matter if he completed all the requirements, he's a DOCTOR. 

    he's stating what he knows and believes.  if it just so happens the present administration has a spot or a need for dr drew, fine.  every admin seeks to add people who strengthen their positions regardless the issue, just as the opposing people do the same

  the media has been beating this issue up.  they are creating conversation with others that ad nothing but politics to this and that is the last thing we need right now.  ebola, i believe was much more deadly and everything worked out

He is a partisan hack, so I didn't really start this garbage.  Don't defend him, nor his claims.  You haven't until I said what I said.

And since you're saying a person like this should be in the administration, you're a partisan hack as well.  See how that works?  Doctor Drew is a trash ball... not because of his politics, but because he a self serving moron whose claim to fame is talking about STDs on MTV in the 90s.  He as much an expert on this as Joaquin Phoenix is on human rights.  He should be ignored.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on February 29, 2020, 06:48:45 PM
Somehow the pandemic thread is more grounded and less reactionary than  “Hanging at the Al” tonight. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 29, 2020, 08:32:38 PM
He is a partisan hack, so I didn't really start this garbage.  Don't defend him, nor his claims.  You haven't until I said what I said.

And since you're saying a person like this should be in the administration, you're a partisan hack as well.  See how that works?  Doctor Drew is a trash ball... not because of his politics, but because he a self serving moron whose claim to fame is talking about STDs on MTV in the 90s.  He as much an expert on this as Joaquin Phoenix is on human rights.  He should be ignored.

so anyone who believes different from another is a "partisan hack?  interesting...not.  medicine is a science, human rights is not.  refute dr drews facts, fine.  people can choose to believe him or not, just as those who choose to believe the opposite..  that's the beauty of this country.  so is name calling i guess.

here's a good example- is dr sanjay gupta a doctor?  is he a "partisan hack"? 

    yes he is a doctor who happens to believe differently than i do, but i'm not going to refer to him as a hack.  you see where i am going with this?  no need for the inflammatory/ angry language

  never said he should or shouldn't be in this administration,  i said if...

so fluff, how much do you have to practice in order to be a doctor?  or how many patients?  nice try though.  if a woman is 1 or 2 mos. pregnant, she's barely pregnant, right?

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on February 29, 2020, 08:42:47 PM
so anyone who believes different from another is a "partisan hack?  interesting...not.  medicine is a science, human rights is not.  refute dr drews facts, fine.  people can choose to believe him or not, just as those who choose to believe the opposite..  that's the beauty of this country.  so is name calling i guess.

here's a good example- is dr sanjay gupta a doctor?  is he a "partisan hack"? 

    yes he is a doctor who happens to believe differently than i do, but i'm not going to refer to him as a hack.  you see where i am going with this?  no need for the inflammatory/ angry language

  never said he should or shouldn't be in this administration,  i said if...

so fluff, how much do you have to practice in order to be a doctor?  or how many patients?  nice try though.  if a woman is 1 or 2 mos. pregnant, she's barely pregnant, right?

I mean it’s not hard.

Doctors who don’t spend a lot of time practicing medicine, but use their credentials to pass themselves off as something of an expert, aren’t really doctoring. They’re pontificating.

And if you don’t think he’s a partisan hack, that tells me all I need to know about you.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on February 29, 2020, 09:32:21 PM
I mean it’s not hard.

Doctors who don’t spend a lot of time practicing medicine, but use their credentials to pass themselves off as something of an expert, aren’t really doctoring. They’re pontificating.

And if you don’t think he’s a partisan hack, that tells me all I need to know about you.

  "a lot of time practicing medicine"  so what is enough time?  i didn't call dr sanjay gupta a "partisan hack"  does that tell you anything about me?  i didn't even call him "barely a doctor" even though i don't think he spends much time getting his hands dirty as he used to, but uses his credentials to pass himself off as an expert.

  if we are to get thru this as a country, who can we believe?  we need to stop the partisan crap and find a way to combat this virus for all us first, then the rest of the world.  just like when the O2 masks fall, we've got to help ourselves first before we can continue to help the others.     
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on February 29, 2020, 09:41:06 PM
  "a lot of time practicing medicine"  so what is enough time?  i didn't call dr sanjay gupta a "partisan hack"  does that tell you anything about me?  i didn't even call him "barely a doctor" even though i don't think he spends much time getting his hands dirty as he used to, but uses his credentials to pass himself off as an expert.

  if we are to get thru this as a country, who can we believe?  we need to stop the partisan crap and find a way to combat this virus for all us first, then the rest of the world.  just like when the O2 masks fall, we've got to help ourselves first before we can continue to help the others.     

I don’t give a flying f*ck what you called Sanjay Gupta.  The fact that you’re defending Drew tells me all I need to know.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on February 29, 2020, 10:00:08 PM
I'll take the blame, I started politics with a jab at the CDC transcript appearing to be force fed.  Now the rest of you can knock it off.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on February 29, 2020, 11:18:04 PM
I was curious about some of the aspects comparing death statistics between influenza and Covid. It is true that those that are elderly are most likely to die (14.8% death rate for people over age 80), but comparing the death rate to influenza shows how much more dangerous Covid is.

For those between 10-19. You are 400 times more likely to die if you get infected with the coronavirus than the flu.
For those between 20-29. The likelihood is around 300 times more likely.
For those between 30-39. 125 times more likely.
For those between 40-49. 125 times more likely.
For those between 50-59. 125 times more likely.
For those between 60-69. 100 times more likely.
For those between 70-79. 60 times more likely.
For those between 80+. 30 times more likely.

So although the overall risk of dying is highest for those that are elderly. The young are hit comparatively harder by Covid.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 01, 2020, 12:02:00 AM
I'll take the blame, I started politics with a jab at the CDC transcript appearing to be force fed.  Now the rest of you can knock it off.

I followed your lead. I will gladly let you take ALL of the blame.  8-)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 01, 2020, 06:08:12 AM
I was curious about some of the aspects comparing death statistics between influenza and Covid. It is true that those that are elderly are most likely to die (14.8% death rate for people over age 80), but comparing the death rate to influenza shows how much more dangerous Covid is.

For those between 10-19. You are 400 times more likely to die if you get infected with the coronavirus than the flu.
For those between 20-29. The likelihood is around 300 times more likely.
For those between 30-39. 125 times more likely.
For those between 40-49. 125 times more likely.
For those between 50-59. 125 times more likely.
For those between 60-69. 100 times more likely.
For those between 70-79. 60 times more likely.
For those between 80+. 30 times more likely.

So although the overall risk of dying is highest for those that are elderly. The young are hit comparatively harder by Covid.


Is't that the same thing that happened with the 1919 pandemic?  That it was the body's overreaction to the infection that killed more than the actual infection did?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 01, 2020, 08:46:43 AM
Interesting side effect:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51691967
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on March 01, 2020, 09:44:25 AM
Topper

We have been monitoring the pollution and traffic pattern. While things are quite slow, things are picking up daily.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 01, 2020, 09:48:47 AM
so anyone who believes different from another is a "partisan hack?  interesting...not.  medicine is a science, human rights is not.  refute dr drews facts, fine.  people can choose to believe him or not, just as those who choose to believe the opposite..  that's the beauty of this country.  so is name calling i guess.

here's a good example- is dr sanjay gupta a doctor?  is he a "partisan hack"? 

    yes he is a doctor who happens to believe differently than i do, but i'm not going to refer to him as a hack.  you see where i am going with this?  no need for the inflammatory/ angry language

  never said he should or shouldn't be in this administration,  i said if...

so fluff, how much do you have to practice in order to be a doctor?  or how many patients?  nice try though.  if a woman is 1 or 2 mos. pregnant, she's barely pregnant, right?

I'll take doctors who don't create stupid names for themselves and create media careers over these losers any day.  That's my point.  I don't give two turds about what Gupta has to say either.  Listen to experts, not people like Dr. Drew who are self serving entertainers.  This isn't difficult stuff.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 01, 2020, 10:19:17 AM

Is't that the same thing that happened with the 1919 pandemic?  That it was the body's overreaction to the infection that killed more than the actual infection did?

Yes and no. The death rates are actually pretty low for young people from Covid, ~0.2%. Its just that only around 0.5 per 100,000 (0.0005%) die in that age range from the flu and/or pneumonia. It is their own immune system killing them.

The difference with the Spanish flu was that the actual death rate for young people was as large for the young as the 80+ group. That does not appear to be the case here.

For those keeping track at home. The death rates for coronavirus are about the same as for the Spanish flu.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 01, 2020, 11:01:19 AM
I really think this new focus on defusing hysteria is counter-productive.

The more hysteria, the more likely people go to hospitals and get tested. That makes it more likely they do not go to work, and do not spread this through their community. If they aren't worried, they'll go through life like normal and this thing becomes an epidemic across the US.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 01, 2020, 03:13:31 PM
Topper

We have been monitoring the pollution and traffic pattern. While things are quite slow, things are picking up daily.

What are you seeing from your customers? I had a good chunk of my Chinese accounts go back into the office last week and were aiming at rush orders to be entered this week to start to catch up. Which is good news for us.

I really think this new focus on defusing hysteria is counter-productive.

The more hysteria, the more likely people go to hospitals and get tested. That makes it more likely they do not go to work, and do not spread this through their community. If they aren't worried, they'll go through life like normal and this thing becomes an epidemic across the US.

To play the devils advocate, or is it to get expectations and worry at a manageable level? People clearing out Costco for non-perishables and stocking up like the end of the world is coming is not productive either. My GF’s company in NYC was working on protocol for people working from home for up to 3 weeks.  When there hasn’t been a diagnosed case in the city yet.

Preparing for yet unseen snarls in the supply chain seems reasonable and necessary, as does corralling expectations that people will need to live in a well stocked, barricaded bubble until it’s been eradicated
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 01, 2020, 03:32:23 PM
What are you seeing from your customers? I had a good chunk of my Chinese accounts go back into the office last week and were aiming at rush orders to be entered this week to start to catch up. Which is good news for us.

To play the devils advocate, or is it to get expectations and worry at a manageable level? People clearing out Costco for non-perishables and stocking up like the end of the world is coming is not productive either. My GF’s company in NYC was working on protocol for people working from home for up to 3 weeks.  When there hasn’t been a diagnosed case in the city yet.

Preparing for yet unseen snarls in the supply chain seems reasonable and necessary, as does corralling expectations that people will need to live in a well stocked, barricaded bubble until it’s been eradicated

Wags,
My sister company reopened last week and they believe they will be able to catch up working weekends.  The plant manager there said other companies were planning the same.

My trade show in Germany Mar 30-Apr 3 was officially postponed this morning.  It's an every-other-year show so I'm guessing they will run it in 2021 instead followed by 2022.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on March 01, 2020, 03:41:10 PM
JWags

I am more concerned on the demand side moving forward. Supply chains are slowly opening up and believe, barring any additional impact in China in regards to the virus, that supply is not going to be an issue.

I am becoming more and more concerned on the demand side and economic affect by the day. Unknowns make decision making difficult and there are a slew of unknowns at the moment.

In addition, I remember my Dad telling me 40+years ago that you can talk yourself into a recession and that is my concern. I still believe the economic fall out is going by what this time in history is remembered for. Truthfully, would rather live with that than a big number of deaths and hope neither make this a bigger crisis.

Again, virtually all factories we work with are open, but degrees of production ranges from under 20% to about 80%. Shipping bottlenecks can be a problem in the short term, especially on the air freight side. Not many planes heading that way.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 01, 2020, 04:04:05 PM
JWags

I am more concerned on the demand side moving forward. Supply chains are slowly opening up and believe, barring any additional impact in China in regards to the virus, that supply is not going to be an issue.

I am becoming more and more concerned on the demand side and economic affect by the day. Unknowns make decision making difficult and there are a slew of unknowns at the moment.

In addition, I remember my Dad telling me 40+years ago that you can talk yourself into a recession and that is my concern. I still believe the economic fall out is going by what this time in history is remembered for. Truthfully, would rather live with that than a big number of deaths and hope neither make this a bigger crisis.

Again, virtually all factories we work with are open, but degrees of production ranges from under 20% to about 80%. Shipping bottlenecks can be a problem in the short term, especially on the air freight side. Not many planes heading that way.

Manufacturing has been slow the last 9 months.  Every manufacturer I have spoken to recently has said the same. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 01, 2020, 04:16:34 PM
Goose and MU, appreciate the perspective.

My business is two fold here as not only production/manufacturing effected, but China is our second largest sales market (which was on track to become #1 with a bullet in 2018).

Diamonds and Jewelery sales ground to a halt with the trade war. Q4 2019 we started to see a bit of movement. Some of our bigger customers were buying at higher than Q1-Q3 levels, before the virus happened. So while demand still may be an issue moving forward, we are working off of 80%ish pullbacks in 2019 from what we were used to seeing, so we’d frankly be thrilled with clawing any of that back even if demand is weakened.

Hoping that this may actually be a net positive for the trade situation and we see injections to stimulate the Chinese economy that inspires some consumer confidence.

I’m expecting March to be cautious and then a spike in April/May, which for my business would be welcome cause May-July is traditionally very slow
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on March 01, 2020, 04:37:24 PM
MU Fan

I think manufacturing has been slow for far longer than nine months. That said, somewhat hard to quantify because of the great of over capacity in many sectors. Too many factories making the same products makes it difficult to judge. There are going to be a lot of shuttered factories in the upcoming months.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 01, 2020, 05:44:19 PM
MU Fan

I think manufacturing has been slow for far longer than nine months. That said, somewhat hard to quantify because of the great of over capacity in many sectors. Too many factories making the same products makes it difficult to judge. There are going to be a lot of shuttered factories in the upcoming months.

Goose,
I agree with what you said.  And to piggyback oversupply:
What I don't like and I've seen, and I've heard from others the same, is seeing my competitors drop prices to ridiculous low prices and I have to also just to retain business   My company's in a niche market and mine is recognized s the quality leader.  I get "The other guy dropped his price and I'll pay more for your product but not that much more.". Then we have to evaluate if we can offer something barely profitable.  The worst part is there is no way the competitors are making much if anything at the offered prices.  We know the process and their geographic location and it's not the Far East.  Everyone loses.
Automotive customers are a blessing because they hate qualifying new suppliers.  Too much expensive testing.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on March 01, 2020, 06:43:01 PM
MU Fan

We are putting a lot of time and money qualifying new suppliers in Vietnam and lack of supply capacity is a big issue. Finding right suppliers is a challenge in some industries, finding suppliers that can take and make volume is a bigger obstacle for us.

We have had a high rate of inquiries from tier one and tier two auto component suppliers looking to qualify suppliers in Vietnam and Thailand. Thailand is further along in auto components, but I believe Vietnam is going to catch up in short order.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 01, 2020, 10:27:52 PM
MU Fan

We are putting a lot of time and money qualifying new suppliers in Vietnam and lack of supply capacity is a big issue. Finding right suppliers is a challenge in some industries, finding suppliers that can take and make volume is a bigger obstacle for us.

We have had a high rate of inquiries from tier one and tier two auto component suppliers looking to qualify suppliers in Vietnam and Thailand. Thailand is further along in auto components, but I believe Vietnam is going to catch up in short order.

We're actually working with a customer in Vietnam.  We supply to this companies plants throughout the world and are trying to add this one.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: curbina on March 02, 2020, 12:22:44 AM
NCAA Pressured to Consider Playing March Madness With No Fans - Bloomberg

by Hailey Waller

The head of the National College Players Association says the NCAA may need to be play March Madness with no fans to protect college athletes from coronavirus.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/ncaa-pressured-to-consider-playing-march-madness-with-no-fans
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 02, 2020, 06:21:22 AM
to protect the athletes from contacting the virus?  that's got to be a misprint or your short sighted opinion, with all due respect.  we may have lionized certain people in our society, but if it weren't for the fans, these "athletes" wouldn't be worth a chit.  let's just say that if the games were to be canceled, it should be for the health and safety of everyone
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: cheebs09 on March 02, 2020, 07:40:19 AM
to protect the athletes from contacting the virus?  that's got to be a misprint or your short sighted opinion, with all due respect.  we may have lionized certain people in our society, but if it weren't for the fans, these "athletes" wouldn't be worth a chit.  let's just say that if the games were to be canceled, it should be for the health and safety of everyone

This came from the National College Players Association. They are going to focus on the group they represent. I’m sure they recognize that it would be done for the good of everyone, not just the players.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jficke13 on March 02, 2020, 08:46:18 AM

Is't that the same thing that happened with the 1919 pandemic?  That it was the body's overreaction to the infection that killed more than the actual infection did?

To my knowledge, Spanish flu killed in primarily two ways.

1. Cytokine storm, which was essentially the body's overreaction to the infection. People who died this way were often between 18-40ish years old and otherwise healthy. From first symptom to death was usually a rapid deterioration.

2. Secondary pneumonia. The primary virus did enough damage to the respiratory system that bacterial pneumonias were extremely easy to contract and extremely hard to fight. This was so common that the researchers named a *bacteria* Haemophilus influenzae because they were convinced it was the cause of the flu. (1918-1919 was really the hinge point of when medical science started to get its feet on the ground).
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 02, 2020, 10:15:43 AM
To my knowledge, Spanish flu killed in primarily two ways.

1. Cytokine storm, which was essentially the body's overreaction to the infection. People who died this way were often between 18-40ish years old and otherwise healthy. From first symptom to death was usually a rapid deterioration.

2. Secondary pneumonia. The primary virus did enough damage to the respiratory system that bacterial pneumonias were extremely easy to contract and extremely hard to fight. This was so common that the researchers named a *bacteria* Haemophilus influenzae because they were convinced it was the cause of the flu. (1918-1919 was really the hinge point of when medical science started to get its feet on the ground).


Thank you.  I was think primarily of #1. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 02, 2020, 11:10:34 AM
I was curious about some of the aspects comparing death statistics between influenza and Covid. It is true that those that are elderly are most likely to die (14.8% death rate for people over age 80), but comparing the death rate to influenza shows how much more dangerous Covid is.

For those between 10-19. You are 400 times more likely to die if you get infected with the coronavirus than the flu.
For those between 20-29. The likelihood is around 300 times more likely.
For those between 30-39. 125 times more likely.
For those between 40-49. 125 times more likely.
For those between 50-59. 125 times more likely.
For those between 60-69. 100 times more likely.
For those between 70-79. 60 times more likely.
For those between 80+. 30 times more likely.

So although the overall risk of dying is highest for those that are elderly. The young are hit comparatively harder by Covid.

I see what you're trying to say, but you're doing a really good job of not saying it well.

Instead of giving the sensationalism of the multiplier, the data would be of much greater value if you showed the death rate for each of the cohorts side by side.

Also, are you talking just Covid-19 or any coronavirus?

For example... who's being hit "comparatively" harder in the following scenario?
10-19: death rate from flu 0.00001%; death rate from coronavirus 0.004%  (400 times greater)
80+: death rate from flu 0.667%; death rate from coronavirus 20%  (30 times greater)

Without perspective, facts still matter.  Statistics don't.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 02, 2020, 11:22:44 AM
NCAA Pressured to Consider Playing March Madness With No Fans - Bloomberg

by Hailey Waller

The head of the National College Players Association says the NCAA may need to be play March Madness with no fans to protect college athletes from coronavirus.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/ncaa-pressured-to-consider-playing-march-madness-with-no-fans

lmfao.  So protect the kids when they are playing in the tournament by banning fans.  What about the rest of the time these kids are moving about the REAL WORLD?

I get what he is trying to do, but my Lord, what a dipstick.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Spotcheck Billy on March 02, 2020, 11:39:26 AM
To my knowledge, Spanish flu killed in primarily two ways.

1. Cytokine storm, which was essentially the body's overreaction to the infection. People who died this way were often between 18-40ish years old and otherwise healthy. From first symptom to death was usually a rapid deterioration.

2. Secondary pneumonia. The primary virus did enough damage to the respiratory system that bacterial pneumonias were extremely easy to contract and extremely hard to fight. This was so common that the researchers named a *bacteria* Haemophilus influenzae because they were convinced it was the cause of the flu. (1918-1919 was really the hinge point of when medical science started to get its feet on the ground).

I think it was # 2 that killed both of the Dodge brothers leading to the forced sale of Dodge to Chrysler.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 02, 2020, 01:14:25 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-29/coronavirus-end-game-will-be-nuisance-more-than-terror
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 02, 2020, 01:48:44 PM
Aren’t we down to zero cases in the U. S.?

That’s what we were told last week.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 02, 2020, 03:12:21 PM
gilead up almost 9% today.  hopefully their drug has been showing some efficacy in testing phase, maybe fast track it to some of the most severe cases?   
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 02, 2020, 03:13:04 PM
Aren’t we down to zero cases in the U. S.?

That’s what we were told last week.

ha!

But, seriously though, two just added to Wisconsin in the last hour.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 02, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
ha!

But, seriously though, two just added to Wisconsin in the last hour.

source?

All I found was this: https://www.tmj4.com/news/local-news/two-more-people-are-being-tested-for-coronavirus-in-wisconsin

Which said "2 cases are pending".   (Admittedly, I would think 200 cases are pending..)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 02, 2020, 03:42:03 PM
source?

All I found was this: https://www.tmj4.com/news/local-news/two-more-people-are-being-tested-for-coronavirus-in-wisconsin

Which said "2 cases are pending".   (Admittedly, I would think 200 cases are pending..)

Sorry, I should have said pending.  My mistake.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 02, 2020, 08:40:15 PM
I thought this was a good interview.

Coronavirus Is Loose in America. An Expert Explains Why You Shouldn’t Panic
Keep calm and wash your hands, a Columbia University virologist says. “The reality is we can’t just tell the whole world to stay home”

By TIM DICKINSON

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/containment-failed-coronavirus-spreading-america-960309/
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 03, 2020, 08:37:02 AM
Transcript of Saturday CDC call:
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0229-COVID-19-update.html

And this was a pretty good read:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china

Something the US has failed at so far
Quote
In China, they have set up a giant network of fever hospitals. In some areas, a team can go to you and swab you and have an answer for you in four to seven hours. But you’ve got to be set up — speed is everything.
Also this...
Quote
China took a whole bunch of steps when they realized they had to repurpose big chunks of their hospital systems to [respond to the outbreak]. The first thing is, they said testing is free, treatment is free. Right now, there are huge barriers [to testing and treatment] in the West. You can get tested, but then you might be negative and have to foot the bill. In China, they realized those were barriers to people seeking care, so, as a state, they took over the payments for people whose insurance plans didn’t cover them. They tried to mitigate those barriers.

Seattle and Portland are pretty much shut down - well, lots working from home.  I guess rush hour in Portland last night was surreal (no rush).
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 03, 2020, 09:15:11 AM
Transcript of Saturday CDC call:
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0229-COVID-19-update.html

And this was a pretty good read:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china

Something the US has failed at so farAlso this...
Seattle and Portland are pretty much shut down - well, lots working from home.  I guess rush hour in Portland last night was surreal (no rush).

Well we are still in the denial phase.  Let's wait until someone famous gets it and croaks.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 03, 2020, 09:25:23 AM
Well we are still in the denial phase.  Let's wait until someone famous gets it and croaks.

As mentioned over in the Al board, testing in the US is not where it needs to be yet.  There are way more than 105 people infected - I'm certain.  I wouldn't be surprised if there's closer to 10k - just no tests to confirm yet.  I mean, there's 6 deaths - do we now think it's a 6% death rate?  Nope...

This is also a reason "confirmed" cases in China jumped when they finally got their testing in place.  Same thing will happen here.  It wasn't a coverup - it was just a lag in testing.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 03, 2020, 10:49:38 AM
As mentioned over in the Al board, testing in the US is not where it needs to be yet.  There are way more than 105 people infected - I'm certain.  I wouldn't be surprised if there's closer to 10k - just no tests to confirm yet.  I mean, there's 6 deaths - do we now think it's a 6% death rate?  Nope...

This is also a reason "confirmed" cases in China jumped when they finally got their testing in place.  Same thing will happen here.  It wasn't a coverup - it was just a lag in testing.

This I agree with.  Also why the "first case in X state!" rhetoric is so stupid.  There is a high probability its in every state now.  And thats fine.  Honestly the more cases, the lower the death rate and rate of "needed hospital attention" is, which goes well to quell hysteria.  Though I don't really trust any of the clickbait to embrace that.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 03, 2020, 10:54:13 AM
This I agree with.  Also why the "first case in X state!" rhetoric is so stupid.  There is a high probability its in every state now.  And thats fine.  Honestly the more cases, the lower the death rate and rate of "needed hospital attention" is, which goes well to quell hysteria.  Though I don't really trust any of the clickbait to embrace that.

Also the quicker herd immunity builds up.

I hate to say it, but we are past the point of preventing this. It is going to hit every corner of the country. But there's no reason to panic. There will be deaths, probably several thousand, just like there are with the flu every year, especially among vulnerable groups. It doesn't mean we should ignore it either. A firm, rapid response is important. We need to get this under control, and then when the weather gets warm for the summer we'll have a few months to firm up anti-virals and vaccines for the next season. COVID-19 will be part of our flu season going forward. We will have to adapt. It is not some big apocalyptic thing though.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 03, 2020, 11:07:56 AM
This I agree with.  Also why the "first case in X state!" rhetoric is so stupid.  There is a high probability its in every state now.  And thats fine.  Honestly the more cases, the lower the death rate and rate of "needed hospital attention" is, which goes well to quell hysteria.  Though I don't really trust any of the clickbait to embrace that.

  one of the reasons i heard it seems more prevalent and the most problematic(at the moment) in state of washington is that it is a big hub for asian travel as well as california
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on March 03, 2020, 11:38:36 AM
My daughter lives in Portland and told me over the weekend people were waiting for grocery stores to open up. She was at Trader Joe's late afternoon and said shelves were getting empty. Full disclosure, my 26 year MU grad had to ask me if any of any reason why the shelves were bare, so obviously the fear has not struck her as of yet.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 03, 2020, 11:50:21 AM
https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840?s=19
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 03, 2020, 12:07:17 PM
https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840?s=19


Some of the responses to that tell me why we have such a problem with our attitudes toward health care in this country.  The lack of understanding about public health in general is pretty alarming.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 03, 2020, 01:29:01 PM

Some of the responses to that tell me why we have such a problem with our attitudes toward health care in this country.  The lack of understanding about public health in general is pretty alarming.

Not to be a jackass but why didn't this lady just call her primary care doctor or go to her local hospital for care? Why mess with a Corona hotline and all of that jazz? If you are sick, contact a doctor. Regardless of whether they can "test" you, you need treatment for symptoms. This twitter post just seems like a scream for attention.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 03, 2020, 02:15:29 PM
Not to be a jackass but why didn't this lady just call her primary care doctor or go to her local hospital for care? Why mess with a Corona hotline and all of that jazz? If you are sick, contact a doctor. Regardless of whether they can "test" you, you need treatment for symptoms. This twitter post just seems like a scream for attention.

I had the perfect answer to your question, but it seems you've already answered it.   8-)


On a different note... CNBC just showed a picture of a Costco in Seattle with empty shelves in the paper goods aisle (toilet paper, paper towels, tissues, etc.).  I'm not surprised by the fact that people are stocking up, but I am surprised that Costco can't even keep the stores in its own backyard stocked.  Yet in the Chicago-area (where the 2nd US case was discovered 6 weeks ago, no less), there's no run on the stores anywhere... anecdotally, it's mostly shopping as usual. 

While this speaks to calm, it also seems to speak to widespread apathy and/or procrastination; I wasn't expecting depleted stocks, but I also wasn't expecting full shelves and short lines at Costco this past Sunday.  My concern here is that too little is being done... an individual's normal reaction to a situation becomes amplified as more people also experience the same situation; in other words, the more people remain unprepared - whether it's because they're being "calm," "responsible," "measured," or whatever - the more likely there's going to be a collective over-reaction at some point.


---[ASIDE]---

A new theory I overheard at lunch today: Most "doomsday preppers" (at least those in the public view) are radical right-wingers, and so there's a political ideology being attached to the decision one makes on whether or not to prepare for a potential crisis, even in the face of said crisis (as opposed to simply an unknown event), and the further left you go, the more resistant to prepare.  So the theory goes that Bernie's supporters are less likely to make preparations and/or take the necessary precautions in the event Covid goes mainstream in the US. 

Honestly, this is the dumbest thing I've heard in response to Covid-19 yet (yes, even more than the "go buy Bitcoin" rallying call)... and that applies whether it's true or false.  Whatever the case, people... PLEASE DON'T BE STUPID; political ideology should have ZERO effect on whether you're capable of making a rational decision that is beneficial to yourself and society... the last thing this country needs is a lot of Bernie Bros refusing to do anything because Trump said whatever,  because the more people delay, the more irrational the response (see above), not to mention, dead Bros don't vote.  DON'T BE STUPID.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 03, 2020, 02:24:43 PM
I had the perfect answer to your question, but it seems you've already answered it.   8-)


On a different note... CNBC just showed a picture of a Costco in Seattle with empty shelves in the paper goods aisle (toilet paper, paper towels, tissues, etc.).  I'm not surprised by the fact that people are stocking up, but I am surprised that Costco can't even keep the stores in its own backyard stocked.  Yet in the Chicago-area (where the 2nd US case was discovered 6 weeks ago, no less), there's no run on the stores anywhere... anecdotally, it's mostly shopping as usual. 

While this speaks to calm, it also seems to speak to widespread apathy and/or procrastination; I wasn't expecting depleted stocks, but I also wasn't expecting full shelves and short lines at Costco this past Sunday.  My concern here is that too little is being done... an individual's normal reaction to a situation becomes amplified as more people also experience the same situation; in other words, the more people remain unprepared - whether it's because they're being "calm," "responsible," "measured," or whatever - the more likely there's going to be a collective over-reaction at some point.


---[ASIDE]---

A new theory I overheard at lunch today: Most "doomsday preppers" (at least those in the public view) are radical right-wingers, and so there's a political ideology being attached to the decision one makes on whether or not to prepare for a potential crisis, even in the face of said crisis (as opposed to simply an unknown event), and the further left you go, the more resistant to prepare.  So the theory goes that Bernie's supporters are less likely to make preparations and/or take the necessary precautions in the event Covid goes mainstream in the US. 

Honestly, this is the dumbest thing I've heard in response to Covid-19 yet (yes, even more than the "go buy Bitcoin" rallying call)... and that applies whether it's true or false.  Whatever the case, people... PLEASE DON'T BE STUPID; political ideology should have ZERO effect on whether you're capable of making a rational decision that is beneficial to yourself and society... the last thing this country needs is a lot of Bernie Bros refusing to do anything because Trump said whatever,  because the more people delay, the more irrational the response (see above), not to mention, dead Bros don't vote.  DON'T BE STUPID.

I'm trying to toe a middle line here. I'm not doing any major prepping, but I'm making sure the advil is stocked, we have pasta and soup, toilet paper, etc. loaded up on baby formula and diapers.

it is all stuff we're eventually going to use anyway. but it doesn't hurt to make sure we have enough to get us through a week or two if needed.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 03, 2020, 02:35:35 PM
I'm trying to toe a middle line here. I'm not doing any major prepping, but I'm making sure the advil is stocked, we have pasta and soup, toilet paper, etc. loaded up on baby formula and diapers.

it is all stuff we're eventually going to use anyway. but it doesn't hurt to make sure we have enough to get us through a week or two if needed.

This seems completely appropriate.  Everyone should - to the extent they have the means/capacity - have enough to get them through one week of "house arrest" (w/o Amazon deliveries).  Nobody needs to be digging a bunker in their backyard, but there's absolutely no harm in stocking up on things you're going to use even if a vaccine were introduced tomorrow.

[IMHO - Every parent should have a month's worth of diapers and wipes, minimum.  Not for covid, but because when the inevitable tummy bug hits, that month's supply is going to turn into a week's supply within a matter of hours.]
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 03, 2020, 02:37:16 PM
I'm trying to toe a middle line here. I'm not doing any major prepping, but I'm making sure the advil is stocked, we have pasta and soup, toilet paper, etc. loaded up on baby formula and diapers.

it is all stuff we're eventually going to use anyway. but it doesn't hurt to make sure we have enough to get us through a week or two if needed.

Same... mostly because I was too late to load up on condoms.

More seriously, there's nothing wrong with having extra toilet paper and other goods That'll get used eventually. When you see people walking out with lifetime supplies of dried rice and beans I can't help but laugh a bit.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 03, 2020, 02:42:12 PM
I'm trying to toe a middle line here. I'm not doing any major prepping, but I'm making sure the advil is stocked, we have pasta and soup, toilet paper, etc. loaded up on baby formula and diapers.

it is all stuff we're eventually going to use anyway. but it doesn't hurt to make sure we have enough to get us through a week or two if needed.

I mean, that's all I'm doing as well, and that is all anyone really should be doing.
As mentioned over in the Al board, testing in the US is not where it needs to be yet.  There are way more than 105 people infected - I'm certain.  I wouldn't be surprised if there's closer to 10k - just no tests to confirm yet.  I mean, there's 6 deaths - do we now think it's a 6% death rate?  Nope...

This is also a reason "confirmed" cases in China jumped when they finally got their testing in place.  Same thing will happen here.  It wasn't a coverup - it was just a lag in testing.

Well, we're up to 9 just a few hours later  :o
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 03, 2020, 02:44:16 PM
Here is the twitter account I follow for updates.  Very accurate info, and when there is a mistake they correct it.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 03, 2020, 03:47:04 PM
Not to be a jackass but why didn't this lady just call her primary care doctor or go to her local hospital for care? Why mess with a Corona hotline and all of that jazz? If you are sick, contact a doctor. Regardless of whether they can "test" you, you need treatment for symptoms. This twitter post just seems like a scream for attention.

I think the last sentence speaks for itself - as that is how I see 99% of stuff on Twitter. You are right - she needs to get off of Twitter and go see a doctor.

But...,

I don't believe I have ever subscribed to a conspiracy theory in my entire life even once, but I may almost be coming close now. The lack of testing in this country is criminal. S. Korea is testing 15,000 people a day. England has set up over 100 testing sites. Yet, we do nothing. And since we were told that we would be down to ZERO cases by now, there is a real reason why our gov't isn't on board with wide scale testing.

Here's the problem though. When we are told that there are fewer than 100 cases and yet 9 people have already died - now a near 10% fatality rate IS ABSOLUTELY a reason to cause panic to the uninformed. Most reasonable people knows that there are 1,000s of cases that just haven't been confirmed with testing and that the fatality rate is in reality in the 1%-2% range or even lower. So by trying to keep total case numbers low, our gov't is feeding into the panic that can ensue when people see that according to gov't stats that we are suffering from a high fatality rate. The bureaucracy has been smashed to bits and it hurts us all in a time of crisis like this.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 03, 2020, 03:58:12 PM
I think the last sentence speaks for itself - as that is how I see 99% of stuff on Twitter. You are right - she needs to get off of Twitter and go see a doctor.

But...,

I don't believe I have ever subscribed to a conspiracy theory in my entire life even once, but I may almost be coming close now. The lack of testing in this country is criminal. S. Korea is testing 15,000 people a day. England has set up over 100 testing sites. Yet, we do nothing. And since we were told that we would be down to ZERO cases by now, there is a real reason why our gov't isn't on board with wide scale testing.

Here's the problem though. When we are told that there are fewer than 100 cases and yet 9 people have already died - now a near 10% fatality rate IS ABSOLUTELY a reason to cause panic to the uninformed. Most reasonable people knows that there are 1,000s of cases that just haven't been confirmed with testing and that the fatality rate is in reality in the 1%-2% range or even lower. So by trying to keep total case numbers low, our gov't is feeding into the panic that can ensue when people see that according to gov't stats that we are suffering from a high fatality rate. The bureaucracy has been smashed to bits and it hurts us all in a time of crisis like this.

Yeah I'm certainly not defending the Trump administration or its response. I think the lack of testing is mostly due to incompetence and an over concern with political appearances (par for the course), rather than some kind of orchestrated cover-up.

Trump is not a thoughtful or in the weeds guy. He wants to yell at Pharma CEOs and make them fix it. He wants to go on TV and tell everyone everything is going to be good, and hope it will. The thing his, for most of his first term, he has gotten lucky. Stuff has worked out. The economy has been on autopilot. We wave our dick at North Korea, and they back down. We kill an Iranian general, and they fumble the response and shoot down a commercial airliner. This is the first time he has actually had to respond to a complex situation.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: curbina on March 03, 2020, 04:08:09 PM
Five biotech stocks that are showing relative strength
(1) Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VRTX)
(2) Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN)
(3) Seattle Genetics, Inc. (SGEN)
(4) AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV)
(5) Charles River Laboraties (CRL)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on March 03, 2020, 04:42:14 PM
My daughter lives in Portland and told me over the weekend people were waiting for grocery stores to open up. She was at Trader Joe's late afternoon and said shelves were getting empty. Full disclosure, my 26 year MU grad had to ask me if any of any reason why the shelves were bare, so obviously the fear has not struck her as of yet.

Good to know that Aldi Joe's is there for all of the prepping hippies.   8-)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: DegenerateDish on March 03, 2020, 04:56:38 PM
Anyone else's company put total kabosh on travel? We got word this morning at my company (Fortune 500, 35,000 employees) that all domestic travel is immediately suspended.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 03, 2020, 05:01:54 PM
Anyone else's company put total kabosh on travel? We got word this morning at my company (Fortune 500, 35,000 employees) that all domestic travel is immediately suspended.

Most meetings can be done via web at this point.  I don't blame them.  Less employees that get it, less loss in productivity.  Not to mention, the appearance of trying to do something, rather than people getting upset that they need to put themselves in danger because the company doesn't take this seriously.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 03, 2020, 05:10:44 PM
I have a source to a healthcare provider, they've received thousands of calls to get tested. The CDC will send them 500 kits ... hopefully by Friday. Sigh.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 03, 2020, 05:18:59 PM
As an aside .. not sure why people are casting shade on this lady .. (https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840)

She called a hotline, checked the CDC website, called two general docs, called an urgent care, called a hospital.  She did all that BEFORE she tweeted her story.   

She did everything right and tweeted how broken the system is.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ATL MU Warrior on March 03, 2020, 06:28:58 PM
Anyone else's company put total kabosh on travel? We got word this morning at my company (Fortune 500, 35,000 employees) that all domestic travel is immediately suspended.
Not yet, and I have overnight travel 2-3 nights/week for next 4-5 weeks. Not leaving Southeast U.S. at least.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: warriorchick on March 03, 2020, 06:29:27 PM
I work for a national medical society. Our CEO is an MD whose specialization is in infectious disease.

He called a staff meeting today to tell us that every department should have a work-from-home contingency plan, just in case. He also said to stay at home if we or any of our family members feel ill, and to wash our hands. Also, he told us that masks are worthless to prevent catching the virus, and may be counterproductive because they trap moisture and prompt you to touch your face more often.

Overall, he did not seem overly worried; he just would prefer that we err on the side of caution.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: reinko on March 03, 2020, 07:00:43 PM
Is it political to ask why with 6 weeks notice our country has almost zero mass screening/testing in place?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 03, 2020, 07:19:56 PM
As an aside .. not sure why people are casting shade on this lady .. (https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840)

She called a hotline, checked the CDC website, called two general docs, called an urgent care, called a hospital.  She did all that BEFORE she tweeted her story.   

She did everything right and tweeted how broken the system is.

I was just going by what a Scooper had previously said.

Never a good idea.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 03, 2020, 07:23:01 PM
Is it political to ask why with 6 weeks notice our country has almost zero mass screening/testing in place?

Might be considered to be political, but we ALL know why this is a sh*tshow. It's what happens when we destroy the bureaucracy.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on March 03, 2020, 08:24:26 PM
Is it political to ask why with 6 weeks notice our country has almost zero mass screening/testing in place?

6 weeks for a national emergency or 6 months?  depends on who you vote for, i guess.  Not trying to pull whataboutism, but things take time to develop, especially with China trying to keep things under wraps for several weeks/months.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States)
History
The earliest reported cases in the US began appearing in late March 2009, in California,[118][119] then spread to infect people in Texas, New York, and assorted other states by mid-April. This spread continued across the country's population and by the end of May had infected citizens in all 50 states. The pattern continued through June of the same year. The total number of confirmed cases varied from 27,717[120] (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed and probable cases) and 25,453 (total of all state confirmed cases) as of June 26, 2009.

Towards the middle of June 2009, the number of US cases surpassed those of Mexico, which had been the previous leader in diagnosed cases of the disease. Toward the end of June 2009, the number of deaths related to the virus in the US surpassed those of all other countries as well.

On June 25, the CDC released information revealing that there were more than likely over one million (1,000,000) cases of the disease in the US, most of which had not been reported or diagnosed.[121][122]

Deaths relating to this new strain of influenza began appearing in the US in late April, and by early June 15, states had reported fatalities related to or directly occurring from the virus. These deaths totaled at 4,000 as of November 15, 2009. The CDC distributed a vaccine for the novel flu strain.[123] using mechanisms already in place for its Vaccines for Children (VFC) program.[124]

On October 24, 2009, President Barack Obama declared Swine Flu a national emergency in the United States. On November 12, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 22 million Americans had been infected with 2009 A H1N1 and 4,000 Americans have died.[125] On December 10, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 50 million Americans or 1 in 6 people had been infected with the 2009 A H1N1 Virus and 10,000 Americans had died, by which time the vaccine was beginning to be widely distributed to the general public by several states.[126] On December 23, 2009 the CDC reported a reduction of the disease by 59% percent and the disease was expected to end in the United States in January 2010.

On January 15, 2010, the CDC released new estimate figures for swine flu, saying it has sickened about 55 million Americans and killed about 11,160 from April through mid-December.[127] On February 12, 2010, the CDC released updated estimate figures for swine flu, reporting that, in total, 57 million Americans had been sickened, 257,000 had been hospitalised and 11,690 people had died (including 1,180 children) due to swine flu from April through to mid-January.[128]
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 03, 2020, 08:32:36 PM
Not exactly sure how the swine flu situation  is relevant. At all.

Read this.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: reinko on March 03, 2020, 08:40:27 PM
ZFB, then how can other first world countries have tens of thousands working tests at the ready and efficient screening procedures operating, while we just wait in like to buy toilet paper and Purell?

And you are right, past administrations gotta pass for their ineptitude, and who knows if history will other judge fairly or accordingly.  Probably not though.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 03, 2020, 09:11:42 PM
As an aside .. not sure why people are casting shade on this lady .. (https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840)

She called a hotline, checked the CDC website, called two general docs, called an urgent care, called a hospital.  She did all that BEFORE she tweeted her story.   

She did everything right and tweeted how broken the system is.

Because if I’m her I’m just going to a damn doctor and not messing with all of the other stuff. Not that hard to get into an urgent care

She wanted retweets
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 03, 2020, 09:19:08 PM
Because if I’m her I’m just going to a damn doctor and not messing with all of the other stuff. Not that hard to get into an urgent care

She wanted retweets

Then you would be wasting time and needlessly endangering others.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 03, 2020, 09:39:55 PM
Then you would be wasting time and needlessly endangering others.

+1

1) If you feel really awful, like you can't breathe, go to the ER.

2) If you think you might have it (fever,  plus respiratory), call the doctor of your choice and see if they can test you.

3) If they say no, stay home and repeat #1 & #2.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on March 03, 2020, 10:35:45 PM
Not exactly sure how the swine flu situation  is relevant. At all.

Read this.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve

Because reinko mentioned politics and jock itch threw gas on the fire.  The swine flu was the last pandemic (not counting ebola, that was different) that the US has faced.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 03, 2020, 11:01:17 PM
Because reinko mentioned politics and jock itch threw gas on the fire.  The swine flu was the last pandemic (not counting ebola, that was different) that the US has faced.

umm, you forgot coleman's diatribe on politics as well.  all i did was say it was the wrong thread, meaning it doesn't belong in ANY thread due to the politics and they erase my post?  colemans post could have lit the fire as well, but i was exercising restraint  something don't smell right here
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 03, 2020, 11:07:22 PM
Knock off the politics.  History is history.  The CDC hasn't moved fast enough.  Lay blame where you want, but don't do it here.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 03, 2020, 11:54:15 PM
Not exactly sure how the swine flu situation  is relevant. At all.

Read this.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve

NM
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: 21Jumpstreet on March 04, 2020, 08:57:45 AM
When does the Fiserv ditch DIY touchscreens? Will computers/robots be replaced by people?! Context being I just read how all McDonalds touchscreens tested positive for fecal matter. We are doomed!
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 04, 2020, 09:02:09 AM
When does the Fiserv ditch DIY touchscreens? Will computers/robots be replaced by people?!

Interesting thought regarding automation. The technology is there to automate a wide variety of global production, the impetus to invest just wasn't there yet as it is cheaper just to produce traditional ways overseas.

If this continues to manifest global supply problems, then this may be the impetus needed for global automation.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 04, 2020, 09:02:17 AM
I have a source to a healthcare provider, they've received thousands of calls to get tested. The CDC will send them 500 kits ... hopefully by Friday. Sigh.

Interesting, I have a first hand account that said that the UW head of infectious diseases says that the CDC has bungled this beyond belief, and that he is furious.  He has also said that stopping spread at this point is unavoidable, and that everyone should have two weeks of dry food on hand.

So that is not reassuring.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 04, 2020, 09:30:56 AM
He has also said that stopping spread at this point is unavoidable, and that everyone should have two weeks of dry food on hand.

So that is not reassuring.

As time goes on .. I find that attitude surprising.  I think what we're going to discover is that COVID19 is widespread, like hundreds of thousands of people have it right this minute.   Hell, my son had a fever and a cough for three days last week.  We saw no doctor and just got through it.   I think tons of C19 cases are going to be like that.

Yes, it's infectious but so are 999 other viruses. 

32m people get the flu in the US, and only 310k of them get medical attention.  We don't have mass quarantines and runs on grocery stores. -- Even if you doubled those numbers for C19, I don't think you stock up your pantry.

I am not an expert but I've stayed at a Holiday Inn Express before.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 04, 2020, 10:11:20 AM
As time goes on .. I find that attitude surprising.  I think what we're going to discover is that COVID19 is widespread, like hundreds of thousands of people have it right this minute.   Hell, my son had a fever and a cough for three days last week.  We saw no doctor and just got through it.   I think tons of C19 cases are going to be like that.

Yes, it's infectious but so are 999 other viruses. 

32m people get the flu in the US, and only 310k of them get medical attention.  We don't have mass quarantines and runs on grocery stores. -- Even if you doubled those numbers for C19, I don't think you stock up your pantry.

I am not an expert but I've stayed at a Holiday Inn Express before.

True enough.  Today the WHO said CFR (Case Fatality Rate) appears to be around 3.4%... which is actually quite bad.  I'm just worried that my parents generation (70+) is in much more trouble.  And, they are the ones that aren't taking this seriously.  My parents are getting on a plane to get on a cruise ship on Friday in SA.  I've done all I can to convince them that its a terrible idea, but my mother is a fatalist, so my warnings have fallen on deaf ears.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 04, 2020, 10:24:13 AM
True enough.  Today the WHO said CFR (Case Fatality Rate) appears to be around 3.4%... which is actually quite bad.  I'm just worried that my parents generation (70+) is in much more trouble.  And, they are the ones that aren't taking this seriously.  My parents are getting on a plane to get on a cruise ship on Friday in SA.  I've done all I can to convince them that its a terrible idea, but my mother is a fatalist, so my warnings have fallen on deaf ears.


Yeah I have an octogenarian mother-in-law with a history of lung issues.  Living in an assisted living place with a bunch of similar people.  I am much more worried about her than I am my children or myself.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 04, 2020, 10:43:24 AM
My parents are getting on a plane to get on a cruise ship on Friday in SA.  I've done all I can to convince them that its a terrible idea, but my mother is a fatalist, so my warnings have fallen on deaf ears.

We're getting on a cruise in two weeks.  Generally, a month out, there is no refund, so yeah, we, and your parents are rolling the dice .. but it's better than flushing thousands$.
Just remember .. Americans take 10m cruise trips per year, so ~27k per day are getting on, off ships, plus or minus.   With the exception of a few ships, all these passengers are fine, and 27k more tomorrow will be fine.
"Until they are not."
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 04, 2020, 11:07:16 AM
Interesting, I have a first hand account that said that the UW head of infectious diseases says that the CDC has bungled this beyond belief, and that he is furious.  He has also said that stopping spread at this point is unavoidable, and that everyone should have two weeks of dry food on hand.

So that is not reassuring.

Neither is banning cameras and recording devices at today's "public" hearing on corona virus .

Neither was Secretary Azar's fear of taking steps early - coordinating and getting CDC involved earlier - out of fear of offending the Prez.

We criticize China's response to the crisis - rightly so - but ours has been as bad or even worse.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: cheebs09 on March 04, 2020, 11:09:36 AM
We're getting on a cruise in two weeks.  Generally, a month out, there is no refund, so yeah, we, and your parents are rolling the dice .. but it's better than flushing thousands$.
Just remember .. Americans take 10m cruise trips per year, so ~27k per day are getting on, off ships, plus or minus.   With the exception of a few ships, all these passengers are fine, and 27k more tomorrow will be fine.
"Until they are not."

Then Arby’s.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 04, 2020, 11:14:00 AM
As time goes on .. I find that attitude surprising.  I think what we're going to discover is that COVID19 is widespread, like hundreds of thousands of people have it right this minute.   Hell, my son had a fever and a cough for three days last week.  We saw no doctor and just got through it.   I think tons of C19 cases are going to be like that.

Yes, it's infectious but so are 999 other viruses. 

32m people get the flu in the US, and only 310k of them get medical attention.  We don't have mass quarantines and runs on grocery stores. -- Even if you doubled those numbers for C19, I don't think you stock up your pantry.

I am not an expert but I've stayed at a Holiday Inn Express before.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/out-of-over-6700-inbound-passengers-75-test-positive-for-covid-19-chinese-custom-officials/articleshow/74474673.cms?from=mdr

If you follow news outside of the US it largely confirms what you are saying. A lot of this news is being suppressed in the domestic news.

The links says that China tested 6700 inbound international travelers that had some sort of respiratory symptoms (essentially if you sniffle you are being tested). Of those over 700 are presumed positive and 75 have been confirmed. That means 1% are confirmed to have covid19, and up to 10% are infected.

This is why companies etc., are being so aggressive in banning travel.

China is testing essentially everyone, so they are getting the best data. The rest of the world, particularly the US is way behind the curve in testing and preparedness. Looks like it is already far more widespread than anyone here is suggesting.

Possibly good news, that means the fatality rate may be closer to 0.3% than the 3.4% reported by the WHO.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 04, 2020, 11:40:35 AM
Possibly good news, that means the fatality rate may be closer to 0.3% than the 3.4% reported by the WHO.

The WHO has been so terrible during this entire ordeal, I don't know why anyone is putting any stock into what they say at this point.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: injuryBug on March 04, 2020, 12:44:57 PM
As time goes on .. I find that attitude surprising.  I think what we're going to discover is that COVID19 is widespread, like hundreds of thousands of people have it right this minute.   Hell, my son had a fever and a cough for three days last week.  We saw no doctor and just got through it.   I think tons of C19 cases are going to be like that.

Yes, it's infectious but so are 999 other viruses. 

32m people get the flu in the US, and only 310k of them get medical attention.  We don't have mass quarantines and runs on grocery stores. -- Even if you doubled those numbers for C19, I don't think you stock up your pantry.

I am not an expert but I've stayed at a Holiday Inn Express before.

my thoughts exactly!!
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 04, 2020, 01:00:16 PM
So evidently COVID-19 is already mutating... there are two identified strains. The newer strain is less deadly than the original. This makes sense as for the virus to survive it needs to keep hosts alive so they can pass it.

https://fortune.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-mutating-second-strain-covid-19-wuhan-china/
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 04, 2020, 01:27:31 PM
Might be considered to be political, but we ALL know why this is a sh*tshow. It's what happens when we destroy the bureaucracy.

Actually, it's not political at all.  Bureaucracy is the writer, director and executive producer of the sh*tshow.

Ask yourself this... in a country where the average MD makes $300k, what kind of MD accepts a $100k/year job with the gov't (in the metro area with the highest cost of living in the country, no less)?  And is this the person you want managing a team of CDC researchers who are trying to get things under control?

(Answers: "One that waits for decisions to be made by someone else" and "fu@k no")
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 04, 2020, 01:37:57 PM
Actually, it's not political at all.  Bureaucracy is the writer, director and executive producer of the sh*tshow.

Ask yourself this... in a country where the average MD makes $300k, what kind of MD accepts a $100k/year job with the gov't (in the metro area with the highest cost of living in the country, no less)?  And is this the person you want managing a team of CDC researchers who are trying to get things under control?

(Answers: "One that waits for decisions to be made by someone else" and "fu@k no")

Also an answer: one who is participating in the student loan forgiveness program after entering into an agreement with the government that their loans will be eliminated after completing public work. But then at the end of their time, they get told "sorry, we're not honoring that"
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 04, 2020, 02:54:23 PM
We're getting on a cruise in two weeks.

Nice to know you.  Who did you will your Scoop moderation to?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Spotcheck Billy on March 04, 2020, 03:33:50 PM
We just returned from Jamaica last week, today I read in the Jamaican Observer that they plan to begin heat screening incoming arrivals and likely put any persons with a fever in a 14 day quarantine. I hope no one has a fever from something non-COVID-19.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 04, 2020, 03:40:51 PM
Also an answer: one who is participating in the student loan forgiveness program after entering into an agreement with the government that their loans will be eliminated after completing public work. But then at the end of their time, they get told "sorry, we're not honoring that"

In other words, someone who's easily duped by misinformation?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 04, 2020, 04:09:57 PM
Nice to know you.  Who did you will your Scoop moderation to?

We're leaving you guys alone for a week, but I'll have the neighbors look in from time to time, so no parties.

We just returned from Jamaica last week, today I read in the Jamaican Observer that they plan to begin heat screening incoming arrivals and likely put any persons with a fever in a 14 day quarantine. I hope no one has a fever from something non-COVID-19.

Super .. our cruise has a stop in Jamaica.  I guess I'll pack a thermometer and not step off the boat if warm.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: pbiflyer on March 04, 2020, 04:24:11 PM
I have a source to a healthcare provider, they've received thousands of calls to get tested. The CDC will send them 500 kits ... hopefully by Friday. Sigh.

Friend in Florida went to urgent care with coronavirus symptoms here in Florida. Had been a conference with world wide attendance, as well as in an international terminal in the worlds busiest airport.
Was told that unless he traveled to China or Italy, there was no mechanism in place to test him for the virus. He's out wandering in the world untested.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 04, 2020, 04:32:31 PM
We're leaving you guys alone for a week, but I'll have the neighbors look in from time to time, so no parties.

Super .. our cruise has a stop in Jamaica.  I guess I'll pack a thermometer and not step off the boat if warm.

We were in Mexico at an all-inclusive when the swine flu hit in 2009. We were screened for fevers when we were leaving Mexico(not coming in) at the airport in Mexico. My wife was all nervous we couldn't leave and started to sweat from nerves.....it was actually kind of hysterical to watch(see what I did there?).

At the end of the day, I believe these things:
1. Way more people in the US have/had Covid-19 than we currently know
2. The US government response to Covid-19 is both accidental and intentionally slow. I'm sure testing is slow because we actually don't want to "know" how many have had it for social and political reasons.
3. The lack of information and/or spread of misinformation is a feature not a bug of the mass media. They either knowingly or unknowingly are not asking the right question because there is much more value in panic clicks than reasoned information clicks.

This is clearly going to be a pandemic(already is) and while deaths as a result will be tragic I'm not sure how this is at all preventable and we should really be focusing on limiting the damage and/or building up people's resistance/recovery opportunities.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Billy Hoyle on March 04, 2020, 04:36:46 PM
college teams deciding against playing in Seattle or hosing teams from Seattle - UMKC and Chicago State. Though in CSU's case, 1) they won't be missed and 2) it's probably a cost savings ploy on their part seeing how the entire school is in danger of folding.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28833590/chicago-state-men-basketball-team-not-traveling-due-virus-women-home-games-canceled

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28837362/umkc-play-seattle-fear-coronavirus
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 04, 2020, 04:55:03 PM
Tax cuts are the best response?

Also, I think a major part of this in the US that doesn't get discussed is the culture of how "bad" it is to miss work if you're sick.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Billy Hoyle on March 04, 2020, 04:58:00 PM
Tax cuts are the best response?

Also, I think a major part of this in the US that doesn't get discussed is the culture of how "bad" it is to miss work if you're sick.

especially for those who do not get sick pay.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: PointWarrior on March 04, 2020, 06:27:46 PM
living here in the CV hotbed of Seattle - good friend who has CV symptoms and an underlying medical condition obtained an order from their doctor to get tested.  They were turned away because they are only testing severely ill (i.e. dying) patients to prove they have it, no proactive testing. Told to go home as they will treat them the same way whether they tested positive or not.  Yep, left to wander the world untested, no peace of mind for those that have come in contact with them, and deeply concerned having an underlying health condition.

Do not let the clowns managing this fool you they have test for everyone who wants one or have this under control....



Friend in Florida went to urgent care with coronavirus symptoms here in Florida. Had been a conference with world wide attendance, as well as in an international terminal in the worlds busiest airport.
Was told that unless he traveled to China or Italy, there was no mechanism in place to test him for the virus. He's out wandering in the world untested.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 04, 2020, 06:39:26 PM

3. The lack of information and/or spread of misinformation is a feature not a bug of the mass media. They either knowingly or unknowingly are not asking the right question because there is much more value in panic clicks than reasoned information clicks.

This is clearly going to be a pandemic(already is) and while deaths as a result will be tragic I'm not sure how this is at all preventable and we should really be focusing on limiting the damage and/or building up people's resistance/recovery opportunities.

Bingo. Ive been pretty firmly in the "stop panicking, be logical" camp when it comes to civilian approach and preparation, which has not went well with my GF in NYC who is in the midst of panic and paranoia and racing to the shelves.  That being said, the "counters" of infected people in the US and breaking alerts each time someone dies from CV is shameless click/eyebait designed to rev up the masses.  Cause fear sells and brings ratings.

Someone accused me earlier today of being "callous" towards the elderly when I commented how this is not something "normal" healthy 20/30/40 year olds should be stressing about, its more an elderly/pre-existing condition issue.  Not at all, but the media refuses to make that distinction for reasons mentioned above.  For example, the diagnosed lawyer in NYC has a respiartory condition and the woman who died in LA was elderly.  However, to find out that the majority of these critical or fatal cases is the listed deep in the articles or not at all.   Its wildly irresponsible for sanity and public response control, by design.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 04, 2020, 06:50:15 PM
My company just canceled all non essential travel and events. They also sent an email asking for people to consult federal guides before traveling.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 04, 2020, 07:02:08 PM
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/out-of-over-6700-inbound-passengers-75-test-positive-for-covid-19-chinese-custom-officials/articleshow/74474673.cms?from=mdr

If you follow news outside of the US it largely confirms what you are saying. A lot of this news is being suppressed in the domestic news.

The links says that China tested 6700 inbound international travelers that had some sort of respiratory symptoms (essentially if you sniffle you are being tested). Of those over 700 are presumed positive and 75 have been confirmed. That means 1% are confirmed to have covid19, and up to 10% are infected.

This is why companies etc., are being so aggressive in banning travel.

China is testing essentially everyone, so they are getting the best data. The rest of the world, particularly the US is way behind the curve in testing and preparedness. Looks like it is already far more widespread than anyone here is suggesting.

Possibly good news, that means the fatality rate may be closer to 0.3% than the 3.4% reported by the WHO.

forgetful,
See the Rolling Stone interview with Columbia University Virologist that I linked.
She says exactly this.  So many people have and are not getting badly sick and don't get medical attention and don't show up in reporting and puts rate near your lesser estimate which is similar to a typical flu.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 04, 2020, 07:22:36 PM
True enough.  Today the WHO said CFR (Case Fatality Rate) appears to be around 3.4%... which is actually quite bad.  I'm just worried that my parents generation (70+) is in much more trouble.  And, they are the ones that aren't taking this seriously.  My parents are getting on a plane to get on a cruise ship on Friday in SA.  I've done all I can to convince them that its a terrible idea, but my mother is a fatalist, so my warnings have fallen on deaf ears.


beware of the source, but interesting article from the epicenter shows the nmbers actually going down

   https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: real chili 83 on March 04, 2020, 09:09:48 PM
I work for a national medical society. Our CEO is an MD whose specialization is in infectious disease.

He called a staff meeting today to tell us that every department should have a work-from-home contingency plan, just in case. He also said to stay at home if we or any of our family members feel ill, and to wash our hands. Also, he told us that masks are worthless to prevent catching the virus, and may be counterproductive because they trap moisture and prompt you to touch your face more often.

Overall, he did not seem overly worried; he just would prefer that we err on the side of caution.

He’s right. That is built off of CDC guidance. I get to run our pandemic protocol. It’s much like what he said.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: WarriorDad on March 04, 2020, 09:28:27 PM

Ah yes, the, "Blame the media" dogs are out.  Dr. Drew is a media personality, barely a practicing doctor.  He is eating up the attention, just like he always has.  Maybe he should call up Dr. Phil and collaborate on how to save this process.

I'd say that in bizarro world, Dr. Drew is just trying to tow the Trump line here to get a job in the administration... but unfortunately...

He actively practices out west, is on the staff at a hospital, and teaches medicine at USC. 

The panic is not necessary.  One of President Obama’s health advisers made similar comments about misinformation and responsibility of reporting.

The mortality rate is dropping and lower than we think.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Retire0 on March 04, 2020, 09:30:49 PM
I keep seeing video of the thermometer guns... do they really work? ZFB told me the only reliable way to measure body temp is through the rear. (Or maybe it was my grandma... guarantee you after one time being suspected of running a temp, I never got sick again).

The expensive ones are good, the sub $100 not so much.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 05, 2020, 05:08:07 AM
Bingo. Ive been pretty firmly in the "stop panicking, be logical" camp when it comes to civilian approach and preparation, which has not went well with my GF in NYC who is in the midst of panic and paranoia and racing to the shelves.  That being said, the "counters" of infected people in the US and breaking alerts each time someone dies from CV is shameless click/eyebait designed to rev up the masses.  Cause fear sells and brings ratings.

Someone accused me earlier today of being "callous" towards the elderly when I commented how this is not something "normal" healthy 20/30/40 year olds should be stressing about, its more an elderly/pre-existing condition issue.  Not at all, but the media refuses to make that distinction for reasons mentioned above.  For example, the diagnosed lawyer in NYC has a respiartory condition and the woman who died in LA was elderly.  However, to find out that the majority of these critical or fatal cases is the listed deep in the articles or not at all.   Its wildly irresponsible for sanity and public response control, by design.

The issue is that there should be something in place, where there is the appearance of nothing.  We need to let this happen, but it needs to happen SLOWLY.  If it burns fast and hard, we get panic.  If its slow, people just accept it for what it is.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 05, 2020, 05:42:00 AM
 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 05, 2020, 08:13:27 AM
A lot of people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor. You never hear about those people. So you can’t put them down in the category of the overall population in terms of this corona flu and/or virus. So you just can’t do that. So, if you know, we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Spotcheck Billy on March 05, 2020, 09:41:35 AM
We're leaving you guys alone for a week, but I'll have the neighbors look in from time to time, so no parties.

Super .. our cruise has a stop in Jamaica.  I guess I'll pack a thermometer and not step off the boat if warm.


It's Jamaica mon, things move on island time so more likely nothing is instituted until July after high $eason is over
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 05, 2020, 02:24:47 PM
A lot of people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor. You never hear about those people. So you can’t put them down in the category of the overall population in terms of this corona flu and/or virus. So you just can’t do that. So, if you know, we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.

It's a question of intent. The point (I think, god help getting into that brain) he is making is that the statistics may, I'll say again, give a false representation of the actual deadly nature of the disease. If it's true that the majority of patients experience very mild symptoms we may not know how many are actually infected(especially given the lack of testing) meaning the denominator is smaller than actual so the fatality metric is misleading.

But what is the intent of that? To reduce panic or to be Kevin Bacon at the end of Animal House? Dunno
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: BM1090 on March 05, 2020, 04:53:11 PM
Anyone else's company put total kabosh on travel? We got word this morning at my company (Fortune 500, 35,000 employees) that all domestic travel is immediately suspended.

Fortune 150 company, similar number of employees. We got the same message today.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 05, 2020, 09:13:51 PM
Cleaned up a bunch of crap.  Not sorry if you posted something you thought was useful and it's gone now. 

Here's the CDC transcript from Mar 3 (sorry a little behind)
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0303-COVID-19-update.html

At least, they admit that numbers are gonna climb quick once their 75k test kits get to the destinations...
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 05, 2020, 09:34:06 PM
The issue is that there should be something in place, where there is the appearance of nothing.  We need to let this happen, but it needs to happen SLOWLY.  If it burns fast and hard, we get panic.  If its slow, people just accept it for what it is.

This is a really good point. The fatality rate is high in some locales, because they are inundated with cases. They do not have the resources to treat everyone with intensive care. So more die. If this happens and progresses slowly, the death rate can be kept low, by providing top of the line care for those that need it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 05, 2020, 11:52:55 PM
For those that like data, just came across the dashboard created by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.  I mean, cool to watch while you're sitting around waiting for your 14 day quarantine to end...

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

EDIT: Added the block to the top of this thread.  You can minimize the block if you don't like it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 05, 2020, 11:54:48 PM
This is a really good point. The fatality rate is high in some locales, because they are inundated with cases. They do not have the resources to treat everyone with intensive care. So more die. If this happens and progresses slowly, the death rate can be kept low, by providing top of the line care for those that need it.

Another thing that has driven the high fatality rate is the toll in Iran through a combination of gov't incompetence and a medical system that is in shambles because of foreign sanctions.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 05, 2020, 11:57:51 PM
For those that like data, just came across the dashboard created by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.  I mean, cool to watch while you're sitting around waiting for your 14 day quarantine to end...

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/


Thanks. This is pretty cool.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 06, 2020, 06:39:26 AM
For those that like data, just came across the dashboard created by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.  I mean, cool to watch while you're sitting around waiting for your 14 day quarantine to end...

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

EDIT: Added the block to the top of this thread.  You can minimize the block if you don't like it.

I had a customer meeting yesterday and she specifically mentioned she had been following this site regularly. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Lighthouse 84 on March 06, 2020, 07:24:44 AM
I had a customer meeting yesterday and she specifically mentioned she had been following this site regularly.
She follows Scoop regularly?   ;)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 06, 2020, 07:56:24 AM
I had a customer meeting yesterday and she specifically mentioned she had been following this site regularly.

I wouldn't want to have a customer who would have this site as a favorite
-Groucho Marx
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: CreightonWarrior on March 06, 2020, 08:42:38 AM
This can't be great
CenturyLink Field employee who worked XFL game diagnosed with coronavirus (https://www.espn.com/xfl/story/_/id/28846329/centurylink-field-vendor-worked-xfl-game-diagnosed-coronavirus)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 06, 2020, 09:43:48 AM
This can't be great
CenturyLink Field employee who worked XFL game diagnosed with coronavirus (https://www.espn.com/xfl/story/_/id/28846329/centurylink-field-vendor-worked-xfl-game-diagnosed-coronavirus)

https://www.youtube.com/v/Srz9EtLCMQs
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: cheebs09 on March 06, 2020, 10:20:06 AM
This can't be great
CenturyLink Field employee who worked XFL game diagnosed with coronavirus (https://www.espn.com/xfl/story/_/id/28846329/centurylink-field-vendor-worked-xfl-game-diagnosed-coronavirus)

Vince McMahon is a marketing genius. No one will go to the games, watch from home, and drive up TV ratings.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 06, 2020, 01:00:34 PM
This is a really good point. The fatality rate is high in some locales, because they are inundated with cases. They do not have the resources to treat everyone with intensive care. So more die. If this happens and progresses slowly, the death rate can be kept low, by providing top of the line care for those that need it.

This is why the fatality rate has dropped dramatically in China, now under 1%, compared to what it was in the early days of the outbreak (10-15%)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 06, 2020, 04:21:18 PM
SXSW canceled
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 06, 2020, 04:31:23 PM
A few minutes ago we were told that EVERYONE who wants to get tested can get tested now.

The lies continue.


Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 06, 2020, 04:35:57 PM
A few minutes ago we were told that EVERYONE who wants to get tested can get tested now.

The lies continue.

first of all-knock off the politics!!  secondly, do you have any proof other than not liking what you heard and who said it that this is a lie

this should be ban hammerable but... ?-(
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 06, 2020, 04:59:28 PM
A few minutes ago we were told that EVERYONE who wants to get tested can get tested now.

The lies continue.

  the fact that you state this is a lie, is furthering the unnecessary hysteria of this unfortunate situation.  the swine flu was as bad if not worse than this and i don't recall all the sensationalism.  that one lasted roughly a year.  if this is a lie, then show us!  otherwise, stfu and learn something.  next thing ya know, you'll be blaming this on "nationalities" >:(
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on March 06, 2020, 05:02:53 PM
Jockey
How to you continually get away with your political comments. The double standard allowed for some on here is a joke. Have to be honest, rather you pollute the non ball threads than trying to add your thoughts on the program.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 06, 2020, 06:20:40 PM
Actually Jockey is right on this one. My healthcare source confirms.  CDC has shipped 75k test kits. CDC says millions of independent tests can be used. That's false, the FDA hasn't approved those tests yet, so providers can't use them (my source deals directly with providers)

Max of 75k tests will be done by early next week, and following the 40% positive tend, total US  cases will be around 30k, but thousands more won't be tested.

If my numbers don't bear out, call me on it, but I think you'll see my way soon...

It's not political. Political are the spin that rocket and goose say we should believe.

edit: nobody called me on it, and I must have misread.  US test/positive ratio is about 10%
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: #UnleashSean on March 06, 2020, 06:33:19 PM
For those that like data, just came across the dashboard created by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.  I mean, cool to watch while you're sitting around waiting for your 14 day quarantine to end...

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

EDIT: Added the block to the top of this thread.  You can minimize the block if you don't like it.

Can we get something like that for big east basketball scores?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 06, 2020, 07:58:24 PM
A few minutes ago we were told that EVERYONE who wants to get tested can get tested now.

The lies continue.

Is that for US or Italy?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 06, 2020, 08:14:27 PM
Actually Jockey is right on this one. My healthcare source confirms.  CDC has shipped 75k test kits. CDC says millions of independent tests can be used. That's false, the FDA hasn't approved those tests yet, so providers can't use them (my source deals directly with providers)

Max of 75k tests will be done by early next week, and following the 40% positive tend, total US  cases will be around 30k, but thousands more won't be tested.

If my numbers don't bear out, call me on it, but I think you'll see my way soon...

It's not political. Political are the spin that rocket and goose say we should believe.

  this is not correct rocky-anyone who needs the test can get tested.  you need a doctors orders however.  not just anyone can walk into a clinic and because they have a little cough demand a test.  they need the tests for those who exhibit more of the S & S's. 

   yes it was political because jock was citing president trump and pence's press conferences given just minutes("A few minutes ago we were told that EVERYONE who wants to get tested can get tested now.") before he posted his outrage.  i am going to take a wild guess here, but i don't think jocky boy is a big fan of this administration.

     given the parameters you set out earlier for this thread-to keep it on point and resourceful,  i would have thought even you would have expected some source for the "lie" jock was claiming.  ok, if it is a lie, who stated it?   yes, there are only a finite amount of tests available at this time but they are manufacturing them as quickly as possible.  the same with a potential anti-viral by gilead sciences(remdesivir) that has been in in clinical trials.  it was approximately a year out, but due to the obvious gravity of this situation, they are trying to fast forward it.  if it can saves lives, the risk-reward leans reward, we must proceed with caution
   statements such as the one posted by jock are recklessly divisive and at this time, there should be no one to blame except the wuhan people.  if you or jock or whoever can cite who stated "the lie" and it wasn't someone on the opposite side of the political spectrum from which they stand, i will be the first to apologize and give myself a self-ban for 2 weeks.  if i am correct, i would expect similar from jockey
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 06, 2020, 08:20:31 PM
  this is not correct rocky-anyone who needs the test can get tested. 
[snip]
  yes, there are only a finite amount of tests available at this time but they are manufacturing them as quickly as possible.

So, it's a lie that anyone who needs a test can get one.  Confirmed.  Glad we agree.

Also, I'm well aware politicians said it.  Many politicians lie to try to save their ass.  Doesn't make it less of a lie.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: reinko on March 06, 2020, 08:21:57 PM
  this is not correct rocky-anyone who needs the test can get tested.  you need a doctors orders however.  not just anyone can walk into a clinic and because they have a little cough demand a test.  they need the tests for those who exhibit more of the S & S's. 

   yes it was political because jock was citing president trump and pence's press conferences given just minutes("A few minutes ago we were told that EVERYONE who wants to get tested can get tested now.") before he posted his outrage.  i am going to take a wild guess here, but i don't think jocky boy is a big fan of this administration.

     given the parameters you set out earlier for this thread-to keep it on point and resourceful,  i would have thought even you would have expected some source for the "lie" jock was claiming.  ok, if it is a lie, who stated it?   yes, there are only a finite amount of tests available at this time but they are manufacturing them as quickly as possible.  the same with a potential anti-viral by gilead sciences(remdesivir) that has been in in clinical trials.  it was approximately a year out, but due to the obvious gravity of this situation, they are trying to fast forward it.  if it can saves lives, the risk-reward leans reward, we must proceed with caution
   statements such as the one posted by jock are recklessly divisive and at this time, there should be no one to blame except the wuhan people.  if you or jock or whoever can cite who stated "the lie" and it wasn't someone on the opposite side of the political spectrum from which they stand, i will be the first to apologize and give myself a self-ban for 2 weeks.  if i am correct, i would expect similar from jockey

  "not a political word" ??  and we all fell off the turnip train

 

No one to blame but the Wuhan people?!?

The quote was from less than 3 weeks ago my friend.

“I had a long talk with President Xi — for the people in this room — two nights ago, and he feels very confident. He feels very confident. And he feels that, again, as I mentioned, by April or during the month of April, the heat, generally speaking, kills this kind of virus. So that would be a good thing. But we’re in great shape in our country.”
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 06, 2020, 09:26:00 PM
No one to blame but the Wuhan people?!?

The quote was from less than 3 weeks ago my friend.

“I had a long talk with President Xi — for the people in this room — two nights ago, and he feels very confident. He feels very confident. And he feels that, again, as I mentioned, by April or during the month of April, the heat, generally speaking, kills this kind of virus. So that would be a good thing. But we’re in great shape in our country.”

  you know what i mean reinko-the people who tried to keep it under wraps.  they should have alerted EVERYONE of this outbreak as soon as they knew.  the chinese officials/wuhan officials i am referring to.   china does not have a reputation for transparency.  this could have been minimized if proper steps were taken right off the bat

https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/china-officials-knew-of-coronavirus-in-december-ordered-cover-up-report-says/
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: LloydsLegs on March 07, 2020, 07:23:28 AM
So, it's a lie that anyone who needs a test can get one.  Confirmed.  Glad we agree.

Also, I'm well aware politicians said it.  Many politicians lie to try to save their ass.  Doesn't make it less of a lie.

To neutralize the politics, the WSJ (conservative editorial stance but with quality and usually independent news division) reports today that the test kits have been and continue to fall short of demand, but should be catching up to demand soon.  (Link won’t work w/o subscription)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 07, 2020, 09:02:39 AM
To neutralize the politics, the WSJ (conservative editorial stance but with quality and usually independent news division) reports today that the test kits have been and continue to fall short of demand, but should be catching up to demand soon.  (Link won’t work w/o subscription)

the new york times also has some good coverage on this ever evolving situation as well.  i don't know when they started requiring a subscription sign up, but that is the only way you will be able to access some good stuff.  getting out accurate and upbeat information serves to calm the unnecessary panic.  we will get thru this like many other things if we just take certain basic precautions, which should actually, always be followed.  as they told us when HIV was evolving, treat everyone like they've got it.  i'm not in favor of "sugar coating" the situation, but to further lies and/or half truths for some type of an advantage or agenda is morally corrupt.  this virus in particular and any other malady that puts large segments of our populace in peril knows no bounds.  most reasonable people just wants this thing under control so we may resume tending to the day to day chit shows
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: WarriorDad on March 07, 2020, 09:04:18 AM
I had a customer meeting yesterday and she specifically mentioned she had been following this site regularly.

A number of dashboards, good and bad

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615330/best-worst-coronavirus-dashboards/
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 07, 2020, 09:29:52 AM
the new york times also has some good coverage on this ever evolving situation as well.  i don't know when they started requiring a subscription sign up, but that is the only way you will be able to access some good stuff.  getting out accurate and upbeat information serves to calm the unnecessary panic.  we will get thru this like many other things if we just take certain basic precautions, which should actually, always be followed.  as they told us when HIV was evolving, treat everyone like they've got it.  i'm not in favor of "sugar coating" the situation, but to further lies and/or half truths for some type of an advantage or agenda is morally corrupt.  this virus in particular and any other malady that puts large segments of our populace in peril knows no bounds.  most reasonable people just wants this thing under control so we may resume tending to the day to day chit shows

Getting this thing under control will require that people are extremely vigilant. That they avoid going out in public as much as possible. That, if they have any symptoms, stay home and isolate themselves from others. If the symptoms persist, they immediately get in touch with healthcare experts to safely get tested. That, if communities are affected, public events, schools, and work should be shut down for non-essential purposes.

Failure to adhere to such measures could lead to a quick and rapid increase in cases to a point where we are unable to provide intensive care needed to avoid death. The result would be high fatality rates as observed in some communities in Iran, Italy, and China, where the disease spread too quickly.

Given the fact that health care is unaffordable for the vast majority of Americans, and that for many, if they stay home they don't get paid, and if they don't get paid electricity, housing, and/or food are gone. Getting the population to be on follow the above measures is a major hurdle. The best solution, is saturating the airwaves and media, so that there is a healthy level of fear to stop the spread. The worst solution, is to pretend like it is nothing, and/or a hoax, or just another flu.

Hopefully people continue to follow the advice above, and the naysayers will be able to puff out there chest and say  "I told you it was nothing." But if people follow the advice and mindset of the naysayers, this will be a big thing. So far communities are following the advice above, and ignoring the naysayers.  Yes, they are going a bit overboard in some of the panicking (selling out stores etc.), but that is better than under-reacting.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 07, 2020, 09:59:22 AM
Actually Jockey is right on this one. My healthcare source confirms.  CDC has shipped 75k test kits. CDC says millions of independent tests can be used. That's false, the FDA hasn't approved those tests yet, so providers can't use them (my source deals directly with providers)

Max of 75k tests will be done by early next week, and following the 40% positive tend, total US  cases will be around 30k, but thousands more won't be tested.

If my numbers don't bear out, call me on it, but I think you'll see my way soon...

It's not political. Political are the spin that rocket and goose say we should believe.

edit: nobody called me on it, and I must have misread.  US test/positive ratio is about 10%

Just because it is inconvenient, doesn't mean its political.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 07, 2020, 02:51:30 PM
  i mean i hope these people had no plans to play the lottery anytime soon

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-quarantine-hotel-collapses-in-china-trapping-70-people
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on March 07, 2020, 04:08:34 PM
Why do we think the BET will still happen?

March 7, 12:13
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo declares state of emergency over coronavirus outbreak
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/07/new-york-governor-andrew-cuomo-declares-state-of-emergency-over-coronavirus-outbreak.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.tinyspeck.chatlyio.share

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/07/amtrak-cancels-nonstop-acela-service-between-dc-nyc-due-to-coronavirus.html

And this from yesterday

(https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/9285ec0/2147483647/resize/1160x/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2Fdb%2Fb7%2F23dfeff04c9987768554db5de45c%2F0306basketball.jpg)

Fans barred from NCAA basketball tournament at Johns Hopkins amid coronavirus fears
https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/2020/03/06/fans-barred-from-ncaa-basketball-tournament-at-johns-hopkins-amid-coronavirus-fears-1265944

Does the NCAA season end with the final games tomorrow? (Sunday, March 8)

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 07, 2020, 04:13:52 PM
No the NCAA season isn't going to end its season.  But the way things are going they may be paid in front of empty gyms.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on March 07, 2020, 04:24:39 PM
No the NCAA season isn't going to end its season.  But the way things are going they may be paid in front of empty gyms.

LeBron James: 'I ain't playing' if there are no fans due to coronavirus concerns
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/486428-lebron-james-i-aint-playing-if-there-are-no-fans-due-to
"We play games without the fans?" James asked incredulously. "Nah, it’s impossible."

"I ain’t playing," James continued. "I ain’t got the fans in the crowd. That’s who I play for. I play for my teammates. I play for the fans. That’s what it’s all about. If I show up to an arena and there are no fans in there, I ain’t playing. They can do what they want to do."


He's right.

If they attempt to play in empty stadiums, are they not announcing to the world that they think the players are "expendable?"
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 07, 2020, 04:34:45 PM
There are more fans in television than there are in the stands. It’s happening in Europe. It can happen here.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on March 07, 2020, 04:50:01 PM
Today (just a few hours ago)
Stanford cancels classes, will limit attendance at sporting events, big tech tells workers to stay home
https://padailypost.com/2020/03/07/stanford-cancels-classes-will-limit-attendance-at-sporting-events-big-tech-tells-workers-to-stay-home/

Yesterday
University of Washington went online for the rest of the semester
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/us/coronavirus-college-campus-closings.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on March 07, 2020, 04:51:40 PM
It seems like Italy leads the US by 2 to 3 weeks.

The Italian government is planning to lock down 16 million people—more than a quarter of its population, including the region around Milan and 11 provinces in nearby regions—in the most sweeping steps any European country has prepared to take against the coronavirus epidemic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-plans-large-scale-lockdown-in-countrys-north-to-fight-coronavirus-11583613874
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 07, 2020, 05:11:27 PM
Today (just a few hours ago)
Stanford cancels classes, will limit attendance at sporting events, big tech tells workers to stay home
https://padailypost.com/2020/03/07/stanford-cancels-classes-will-limit-attendance-at-sporting-events-big-tech-tells-workers-to-stay-home/

Yesterday
University of Washington went online for the rest of the semester
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/us/coronavirus-college-campus-closings.html

False. They aren’t going online the rest of the semester.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on March 07, 2020, 05:31:39 PM
False. They aren’t going online the rest of the semester.

Please read the first sentence of the story

The University of Washington said on Friday that it would cancel in-person classes and have students take courses and finals remotely while the Seattle area grapples with a growing coronavirus outbreak, in a move that other colleges around the country are preparing to follow if the virus becomes more widespread.

and since you missed that, you probably also missed this in the middle

The University of Washington, with 50,000 students on three campuses across the Seattle region, was apparently the first large college in the United States to make the shift entirely to online classes amid virus concerns. It said the change would begin Monday and continue through the remainder of the winter quarter, which ends March 20. The university’s president, Ana Mari Cauce, said she was hopeful that normal classes would resume during the spring quarter.

Oh wait, I said semester and it says quarter.  Stand corrected on that minor point.  But ... they are not going back in late March.  This is not ending in two weeks.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on March 07, 2020, 05:33:34 PM
In total, this covers 12,000 employees

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/apple-encourages-silicon-valley-staff-to-work-from-home-on-virus?sref=SgYAAa0L

Apple Inc. is encouraging employees in Silicon Valley to work from home as an “additional precaution” against the outbreak of coronavirus, joining other major technology companies, including Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp.

The iPhone maker has two main headquarters in Cupertino, California, -- the Apple Park campus and its original Infinite Loop set of buildings -- in addition to offices elsewhere in Santa Clara County. Apple also is offering workers in Seattle the option to work from home. The company employs engineers in Seattle on machine-learning technology.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 07, 2020, 05:34:54 PM
It seems like Italy leads the US by 2 to 3 weeks.

The Italian government is planning to lock down 16 million people—more than a quarter of its population, including the region around Milan and 11 provinces in nearby regions—in the most sweeping steps any European country has prepared to take against the coronavirus epidemic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-plans-large-scale-lockdown-in-countrys-north-to-fight-coronavirus-11583613874

Of note, 99% of deaths in Italy have been people 60+, nearly 85% over the age of 70. 1 person under the age of 40, and it was not a child.  All of the victims in Washington, from what I saw, were nursing home patients.

This is not to downplay the lives of the elderly, or to downplay the contagiousness of it.  But the fear and hysteria need to be framed properly.  People don't raid store shelves cause chicken pox broke out in the school district.  The media has made this out to be a frightening ordeal for everyone, the ABC news special report on Friday night was reminiscent of the somber reports of terror attacks.  If you're in one of the demographic groups that are susceptible to pneumonia or garden variety influenza complications, then by all means make preparations and precautions.  But cancelling months of classes, bringing businesses fully to a halt, encouraging people to postpone or cancel vacation/travel plans 1/2/3 months in the future?  Thats where I'm getting a bit sick of the media bias and narrative.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on March 07, 2020, 05:37:36 PM
A week ago no one even completed canceling it.  Now they are making plans to play with no fans.

Check back in a week.

March Madness Will Go On, but in a Worst Case, Without Mad Fans
As coronovirus spreads around the U.S., the NCAA’s marquee basketball tournaments are slated to begin in less than two weeks
https://www.wsj.com/articles/march-madness-will-go-on-but-in-a-worst-case-without-mad-fans-11583599569

The NCAA’s worst-case scenario for staging its March Madness tournaments in the time of coronavirus involves barring spectators from games, with players screened for illness before competing, the association’s chief medical officer Brian Hainline said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

The men’s and women’s college basketball tournaments are slated to begin in less than two weeks, at a time when event cancellations are piling up in the U.S. and abroad.  But the NCAA says it is not contemplating a postponement or cancellation of its lucrative marquee event.

“I think a worst-case scenario is that it’s played behind closed doors,” Hainline said Friday. “It would be very, very difficult to cancel a championship and have it at any other time.”

"It’s very unlikely,” he added of the closed-door scenario, saying the organization had worked out “options A through Z” to choose from.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 07, 2020, 05:43:22 PM
I am not personally scared of having the virus.  I bet I will persevere.  More so I am cautious about contracting and infecting others.  If there’s anything I can do to stop that while not going full China lockdown it’s a win. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 07, 2020, 05:47:32 PM
Want a tremendous thread of doom?  Read this thread:

https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on March 07, 2020, 05:48:50 PM
Of note, 99% of deaths in Italy have been people 60+, nearly 85% over the age of 70. 1 person under the age of 40, and it was not a child.  All of the victims in Washington, from what I saw, were nursing home patients.

This is not to downplay the lives of the elderly, or to downplay the contagiousness of it.  But the fear and hysteria need to be framed properly.  People don't raid store shelves cause chicken pox broke out in the school district.  The media has made this out to be a frightening ordeal for everyone, the ABC news special report on Friday night was reminiscent of the somber reports of terror attacks.  If you're in one of the demographic groups that are susceptible to pneumonia or garden variety influenza complications, then by all means make preparations and precautions.  But cancelling months of classes, bringing businesses fully to a halt, encouraging people to postpone or cancel vacation/travel plans 1/2/3 months in the future?  Thats where I'm getting a bit sick of the media bias and narrative.

Flu truther?

Go to the top of this page and you will see

Total recovered = 58,359
Total Death = 3,558

No divide them to get the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR)
3,558 / 58,359 = 6.1%
Of all the resolved cases, 6.1% die

2018/2019 flu season
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Total = 35,520,883
Recovered = 35,486,726
Dead = 34,157

34,157 / 35,486,786 = .096% (2018/2018 CFR)

Coronavirus is 63.5x (6.1%/0.096%) deadlier than the seasonal flu.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: 4everwarriors on March 07, 2020, 05:58:27 PM
Could be da best thin' for MU if da BET is canceled, hey?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 07, 2020, 06:09:15 PM
Want a tremendous thread of doom?  Read this thread:

https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

That is why countries have been responding so aggressively, and why there is a lot of media coverage. The good news, I think it is working.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 07, 2020, 06:13:29 PM
Want a tremendous thread of doom?  Read this thread:

https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

That was interesting.  Guess there is math to support my paranoia. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 07, 2020, 06:27:49 PM
Honestly, after reading that thread .. and once you take the leap that C19 is not going to be controlled .. it's just a matter of time.   The author presupposes a doubling-rate of 6 days .. fine, maybe we can make that 12 days, so instead of billions infected by July, it's ~October.     Yay?

Seems like only a matter of time, like 4-6 weeks where all schooling is closed.  All cruise ships, closed.  Air travel will be 75% closed.   Hotels, closed.  Restaurants, closed.  Churches, closed.  On and on.

That seems like .. the beginning of a global great depression?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 07, 2020, 06:31:26 PM
Honestly, after reading that thread .. and once you take the leap that C19 is not going to be controlled .. it's just a matter of time.   The author presupposes a doubling-rate of 6 days .. fine, maybe we can make that 12 days, so instead of billions infected by July, it's ~October.     Yay?

Seems like only a matter of time, like 4-6 weeks where all schooling is closed.  All cruise ships, closed.  Air travel will be 75% closed.   Hotels, closed.  Restaurants, closed.  Churches, closed.  On and on.

That seems like .. the beginning of a global great depression?

China checked it and it will be a 1-2 quarter recession for them.  So I guess it depends on when the rest of the world can get to peak infection.  My guess is it will take ROW longer due to either worse health systems (emerging markets) or freedom (developed). 

Edit: obviously if this is slowed down by weather, people decide to accept risk or vaccine can completely change it to the positive. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GB Warrior on March 07, 2020, 06:41:23 PM
Honestly, after reading that thread .. and once you take the leap that C19 is not going to be controlled .. it's just a matter of time.   The author presupposes a doubling-rate of 6 days .. fine, maybe we can make that 12 days, so instead of billions infected by July, it's ~October.     Yay?

Seems like only a matter of time, like 4-6 weeks where all schooling is closed.  All cruise ships, closed.  Air travel will be 75% closed.   Hotels, closed.  Restaurants, closed.  Churches, closed.  On and on.

That seems like .. the beginning of a global great depression?

And then there's this https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3 (https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 07, 2020, 06:53:15 PM
Flu truther?

Go to the top of this page and you will see

Total recovered = 58,359
Total Death = 3,558

No divide them to get the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR)
3,558 / 58,359 = 6.1%
Of all the resolved cases, 6.1% die

2018/2019 flu season
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Total = 35,520,883
Recovered = 35,486,726
Dead = 34,157

34,157 / 35,486,786 = .096% (2018/2018 CFR)

Coronavirus is 63.5x (6.1%/0.096%) deadlier than the seasonal flu.

Classic Heisey misdirection addressing 0.0% of what I was talking to.

If a disease normally kills .5% of red haired green eyed people, and a new strain now kills 3% of red haired green eyed people, but still .01% of non-red haired green eye people, creating panic and paranoia about that disease to everyone that is not red haired and green eyed is excessive and irresponsible.

That 58,000 does not account for all Covid cases which required no hospitalization or care, which likely number in the hundreds of thousands.

But keep banging your drum to help your AAPL short
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 07, 2020, 07:01:55 PM
Please read the first sentence of the story

The University of Washington said on Friday that it would cancel in-person classes and have students take courses and finals remotely while the Seattle area grapples with a growing coronavirus outbreak, in a move that other colleges around the country are preparing to follow if the virus becomes more widespread.

and since you missed that, you probably also missed this in the middle

The University of Washington, with 50,000 students on three campuses across the Seattle region, was apparently the first large college in the United States to make the shift entirely to online classes amid virus concerns. It said the change would begin Monday and continue through the remainder of the winter quarter, which ends March 20. The university’s president, Ana Mari Cauce, said she was hopeful that normal classes would resume during the spring quarter.

Oh wait, I said semester and it says quarter.  Stand corrected on that minor point.  But ... they are not going back in late March.  This is not ending in two weeks.

It’s not a minor point. The quarter is just a couple of weeks. A semester would imply May.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 07, 2020, 07:04:05 PM
The media has made this out to be a frightening ordeal for everyone, the ABC news special report on Friday night was reminiscent of the somber reports of terror attacks.  If you're in one of the demographic groups that are susceptible to pneumonia or garden variety influenza complications, then by all means make preparations and precautions.  But cancelling months of classes, bringing businesses fully to a halt, encouraging people to postpone or cancel vacation/travel plans 1/2/3 months in the future?  Thats where I'm getting a bit sick of the media bias and narrative.

Think of cancelling classes, businesses, etc as a flu shot*.  If you're healthy, you don't really need a flu shot - you'll survive the flu.  But healthy people get flu shots to avoid getting sick and spreading it to a vulnerable population.  THAT is why it's important to cancel things and slow the spread.  Most people have someone, or lots of someones of age 70+ in their life that they care about.  Those people can take precautions, but if you're not, or businesses or classes don't care, a lot more of those people will die.

* - I'm certainly not comparing COVID-19 to the flu.

I am not personally scared of having the virus.  I bet I will persevere.  More so I am cautious about contracting and infecting others.  If there’s anything I can do to stop that while not going full China lockdown it’s a win. 

And that's essentially the correct perspective.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: DegenerateDish on March 07, 2020, 08:37:02 PM
Want a tremendous thread of doom?  Read this thread:

https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 07, 2020, 11:21:51 PM
China checked it and it will be a 1-2 quarter recession for them.  So I guess it depends on when the rest of the world can get to peak infection.  My guess is it will take ROW longer due to either worse health systems (emerging markets) or freedom (developed). 



You’re buying what China is saying?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 08, 2020, 01:05:46 AM
You’re buying what China is saying?

Are you saying it’s way worse from them (meaning more than 1-2 quarters) or they are sandbagging cause they were in economic turmoil before this?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 08, 2020, 06:52:20 AM
You’re buying what China is saying?

Based on The NY Times article I posted above and recent factory utilization rates reported by companies, I think it is generally true. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 08, 2020, 09:09:03 AM
I liked this document ..

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cI_D3ULz6-qoBRMND8dIVz-naW92MqATphBg5bQEIjg/preview?fbclid=IwAR3dK2AUxsebUvy-VFkTqRKrbADDFmv7fcYX4U9wpkr_Vt0XHTjNq8y8VeQ&pru=AAABcN5-6sQ*1EWxzP8ANMZuVQ_HmmvMEw# (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cI_D3ULz6-qoBRMND8dIVz-naW92MqATphBg5bQEIjg/preview?fbclid=IwAR3dK2AUxsebUvy-VFkTqRKrbADDFmv7fcYX4U9wpkr_Vt0XHTjNq8y8VeQ&pru=AAABcN5-6sQ*1EWxzP8ANMZuVQ_HmmvMEw#)

This was a good point:

8. I do want to remind everyone that when public health works, the result is the least newsworthy thing ever: nothing happens.

If this all fizzles out and you start feeling like ‘Wah, all that fuss for nothing??’ Then send a thank-you note to your local department of public health for a job well done. Fingers crossed for that outcome.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 08, 2020, 09:28:00 AM
I liked this document ..

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cI_D3ULz6-qoBRMND8dIVz-naW92MqATphBg5bQEIjg/preview?fbclid=IwAR3dK2AUxsebUvy-VFkTqRKrbADDFmv7fcYX4U9wpkr_Vt0XHTjNq8y8VeQ&pru=AAABcN5-6sQ*1EWxzP8ANMZuVQ_HmmvMEw# (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cI_D3ULz6-qoBRMND8dIVz-naW92MqATphBg5bQEIjg/preview?fbclid=IwAR3dK2AUxsebUvy-VFkTqRKrbADDFmv7fcYX4U9wpkr_Vt0XHTjNq8y8VeQ&pru=AAABcN5-6sQ*1EWxzP8ANMZuVQ_HmmvMEw#)

Yup, I generally concur with all of that.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 08, 2020, 10:56:43 AM
Ah, humans.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Moronavirus/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/Moronavirus/)

Bo and Luke Duke School of Medicine :   https://en.radiofarda.com/a/people-who-drink-moonshine-in-iran-to-prevent-coronavirus-die-of-poisoning/30474864.html (https://en.radiofarda.com/a/people-who-drink-moonshine-in-iran-to-prevent-coronavirus-die-of-poisoning/30474864.html)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 08, 2020, 11:46:10 AM
Are you saying it’s way worse from them (meaning more than 1-2 quarters) or they are sandbagging cause they were in economic turmoil before this?

Actually, Wags, I was referring to statements that things are getting better in Chine (re:coronavirus). When did we suddenly get to the point that their gov't - which has lied from the beginning and covered up the extent of the virus - has suddenly become a source of facts.

According to The Week - a centrist news site - they are still simply lying and covering up. In other words, SOP.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/900488/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-all-fake-whistleblowers-residents-claim

I think we all agree that we don't know what is going on in China. I think we can also agree we will not get transparency from the Chinese Gov't.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 08, 2020, 12:57:43 PM
Actually, Wags, I was referring to statements that things are getting better in Chine (re:coronavirus). When did we suddenly get to the point that their gov't - which has lied from the beginning and covered up the extent of the virus - has suddenly become a source of facts.

According to The Week - a centrist news site - they are still simply lying and covering up. In other words, SOP.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/900488/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-all-fake-whistleblowers-residents-claim

I think we all agree that we don't know what is going on in China. I think we can also agree we will not get transparency from the Chinese Gov't.

Ok, multiple sources have them closing the Coronavirus hospitals and quarantine centers.  And I can tell you, as well as many others, first hand from clients and customers that many factories are back open and back to work.  Not speaking to long term business outlooks, but claiming its a massive coverup and the virus is still rampaging unchecked is some alarmist nonsense IMO.

Maybe they are window dressing Wuhan a bit, but the country is not longer at a standstill and case numbers continue to drop.  Thats meaningful.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 08, 2020, 01:08:37 PM
as more "first hand" news and reports from guys like wags, goose and a few others here who do direct business with the asian areas, will we start seeing our most accurate reports.  watch the stock market tomorrow-that could also tell us a little more. 

as more accurate numbers of the cases come out and the #'s being verified via testing, the mortality rate will drop.  i am not by any means trying to minimize any death from this virus.  it seems as though it's following the usual story; the very young, very old and the immunocompromised who are most susceptible 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 08, 2020, 01:34:07 PM
Ok, multiple sources have them closing the Coronavirus hospitals and quarantine centers.  And I can tell you, as well as many others, first hand from clients and customers that many factories are back open and back to work.  Not speaking to long term business outlooks, but claiming its a massive coverup and the virus is still rampaging unchecked is some alarmist nonsense IMO.

Maybe they are window dressing Wuhan a bit, but the country is not longer at a standstill and case numbers continue to drop.  Thats meaningful.

I'll take your word on this Wags - as I have been out of the business loop for a few years now.

The company where I worked made a conscious decision about 10 years ago to not depend entirely on China as they closed plants in Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, etc. Instead, they went to a presence in India, Vietnam, and Indonesia to supplement the factories in China.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on March 08, 2020, 02:07:05 PM
Wags
Our team is back to work and have full access to 90% of the factories we work with, which is over 50 and all over China. Many of the factories not up and running are factories with money issues. There has been a glut of overcapacity for a long time and the weak factories are suffering.
I cannot comment on China reporting new cases or deaths accurately, but confirm much of China is open for business.
I have two grandkids arriving in early April otherwise I would be finding a way to get back to China and Vietnam.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on March 08, 2020, 06:43:49 PM
Wags
Our team is back to work and have full access to 90% of the factories we work with, which is over 50 and all over China. Many of the factories not up and running are factories with money issues. There has been a glut of overcapacity for a long time and the weak factories are suffering.
I cannot comment on China reporting new cases or deaths accurately, but confirm much of China is open for business.
I have two grandkids arriving in early April otherwise I would be finding a way to get back to China and Vietnam.

Goose, good to hear your operation is mostly back to full speed.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 08, 2020, 07:21:47 PM
Wags
Our team is back to work and have full access to 90% of the factories we work with, which is over 50 and all over China. Many of the factories not up and running are factories with money issues. There has been a glut of overcapacity for a long time and the weak factories are suffering.
I cannot comment on China reporting new cases or deaths accurately, but confirm much of China is open for business.
I have two grandkids arriving in early April otherwise I would be finding a way to get back to China and Vietnam.

I have my weekly teleconference Monday morning.  I'll have a China update from my China b pant manager.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on March 08, 2020, 07:34:05 PM
MU Fan
Keep me posted.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 08, 2020, 08:00:00 PM
MU Fan
Keep me posted.

i knew we had at least another great scoop'er here with business ties to the southeast.  Godspeed to all of you guys, especially if you have to travel and your businesses.  the same goes for anyone else more directly involved with this mess.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 08, 2020, 09:12:21 PM
as more "first hand" news and reports from guys like wags, goose and a few others here who do direct business with the asian areas, will we start seeing our most accurate reports.  watch the stock market tomorrow-that could also tell us a little more. 

as more accurate numbers of the cases come out and the #'s being verified via testing, the mortality rate will drop.  i am not by any means trying to minimize any death from this virus.  it seems as though it's following the usual story; the very young, very old and the immunocompromised who are most susceptible

zero deaths for kids under 10 world wide
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: shoothoops on March 08, 2020, 09:56:57 PM
Indian Wells Tennis Tourney canceled for next week due to the Coronavirus.

For those that don't follow the sport, it's the biggest non grand slam/major professional tennis tournament on tour. Many of the players have been there practicing. Qualifying events were completed.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 08, 2020, 10:10:27 PM
zero deaths for kids under 10 world wide

From Italy, which is driving the majority of panic and fear globally right now...

https://twitter.com/dr_farrisd/status/1236779824296996871?s=21


Goose,
  Thanks for the updates. Glad to hear it. Let’s hope for some return to normalcy
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on March 08, 2020, 10:42:27 PM
Indian Wells Tennis Tourney canceled for next week due to the Coronavirus.

For those that don't follow the sport, it's the biggest non grand slam/major professional tennis tournament on tour. Many of the players have been there practicing. Qualifying events were completed.

One step closer to canceling March Madness?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 08, 2020, 10:47:41 PM
Sorry topper, one step to your cruise getting cancelled.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/before-you-go/travelers-with-special-considerations/cruise-ship-passengers.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 09, 2020, 09:00:07 AM
Just got off my weekly call.  (Delayed an hour since the rest of the world has not turned their clocks ahead yet.)

Nothing really to report.  Plant Manager said it's been quiet and everything is starting to return to business as usual in China.  One of their customers in China just reopened last week and is only slowly ramping up.  Said the local Zhongshan officials were coming in for a visit tomorrow to get an understanding of how the virus reaction has/is affecting business operations.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 09, 2020, 09:05:18 AM
An elementary school child in Indianapolis suburb just diagnosed. School shutting down for 2 weeks. Parents were informed midday yesterday. That has to be absolutely brutal.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 09, 2020, 10:19:45 AM
DC priest is confirmed with Covid-19, distributed communion over the last two weeks to at least 500 people.....I think we can probably close the book on containment.

Time to go find a Typhoid Mary/Marty to hang out with to get the contagion over and done with. Benny, you find a source for yourself yet?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 09, 2020, 10:23:03 AM
Is "containment" the actual goal any longer?  It seems like its more like "slowing the spread before the weather gets warm and hopefully slows down until fall."
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 09, 2020, 10:23:19 AM
The one fortuitous thing about this is timing: the outbreak will ramp up just as flu season is ending. This should free up hospital beds for COVID-19.

Can you imagine if it was mid-November right now?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 09, 2020, 10:24:29 AM
DC priest is confirmed with Covid-19, distributed communion over the last two weeks to at least 500 people.....I think we can probably close the book on containment.

Time to go find a Typhoid Mary/Marty to hang out with to get the contagion over and done with. Benny, you find a source for yourself yet?

Not good. Also old people disproportionally attend church.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 09, 2020, 10:30:35 AM
Is "containment" the actual goal any longer?  It seems like its more like "slowing the spread before the weather gets warm and hopefully slows down until fall."

Yeah, about that, isn't Tehran, Iran pretty warm?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: CreightonWarrior on March 09, 2020, 10:32:33 AM
Confirmed case in Omaha, they think the patient brought it back from a trip to UK. The patient, prior to diagnosis, went for check ups a couple times, so exposure at the hospital or clinic, and also attended a Special Olympics event with 500 athletes. Positive cases from two family members. Area where the event took place is shutting down for a week. About 20 miles from where I live.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 09, 2020, 10:33:33 AM
Not especially, but I get your point.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 09, 2020, 10:35:19 AM
Yeah, about that, isn't Tehran, Iran pretty warm?

It's not a literal temperature thing, it's a cultural thing ie people get outside when its warm outside so the "concentration" of individuals in enclosed spaces is less.....that's why flu season is October to April typically because the conditions for spreading it is more concentrated.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 09, 2020, 11:01:53 AM
It's not a literal temperature thing, it's a cultural thing ie people get outside when its warm outside so the "concentration" of individuals in enclosed spaces is less.....that's why flu season is October to April typically because the conditions for spreading it is more concentrated.

Today I learned...
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Retire0 on March 09, 2020, 11:12:17 AM
It's not a literal temperature thing, it's a cultural thing ie people get outside when its warm outside so the "concentration" of individuals in enclosed spaces is less.....that's why flu season is October to April typically because the conditions for spreading it is more concentrated.

Had no idea honestly.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jsglow on March 09, 2020, 11:22:16 AM
Actually,  I read a story yesterday where warm temps coupled with higher humidity decrease the likelihood of spreading of any virus from individual to individual. So we go outside,  increase social distance, and degrade the environment all at once.

I sincerely feel for the elderly and immune compromised.  They are at risk for sure. The nasty thing about this is that we're going to get it, maybe not even know, and get better. Many more Americans that have been reported have likely already recovered. So it's a 'best practice gameplan' for most and for God's sake stop hoarding toilet paper. (Did you guys see that idiotic fight over TP yesterday?)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 09, 2020, 11:24:08 AM
Yep, one of the reasons Valley Forge was so bad.....forced confinement + malnutrition + terrible hygiene (especially the New Jersey Line....not a joke) allowed disease to flourish. True of a lot of armies in winter camps.

Typically, you don't catch a virus or bacteria with a single exposure (something movies really get wrong) but from continuous exposure. As an example, if you walked through a subway car that an idiot traveled in with Covid, but you don't stay in it, you are a lot less likely to catch the virus than you would if you sat in the car for a 50 minute commute or something. So when the weather heats up and we spend less time breathing the same air our exposure time is less and the diseases tend to spread a lot less easily. You can still get the normal flu in the summer, it's just a lot less likely to transmit to others.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jsglow on March 09, 2020, 11:32:29 AM
The moral of the story. Take your kids and grandkids outside and play with the dog. And get dirty while you do it. It'll remind you to wash up when you come inside.

The added benefit: you don't have to watch #mubb.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 09, 2020, 11:36:04 AM
Actually,  I read a story yesterday where warm temps coupled with higher humidity decrease the likelihood of spreading of any virus from individual to individual. So we go outside,  increase social distance, and degrade the environment all at once.

I sincerely feel for the elderly and immune compromised.  They are at risk for sure. The nasty thing about this is that we're going to get it, maybe not even know, and get better. Many more Americans that have been reported have likely already recovered. So it's a 'best practice gameplan' for most and for God's sake stop hoarding toilet paper. (Did you guys see that idiotic fight over TP yesterday?)

Glow, this is it absolutely. I am not worried about myself or my wife. I am not worried about my infant, as they also seem to be spared from the worst impact (flu seems to be a much bigger threat to babies).

I am a bit concerned about my 90 year old grandmother in a nursing home.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sir Lawrence on March 09, 2020, 11:41:07 AM

 So it's a 'best practice gameplan' for most and for God's sake stop hoarding toilet paper. (Did you guys see that idiotic fight over TP yesterday?)

What's with the TP hoarding anyway?  Is it because people think that there's a likelihood of self quarantine and you won't get to the store to purchase TP?  Because I don't see anything in the stated symptoms that would increase the need to use TP, like diarrhea. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 09, 2020, 11:41:49 AM
Is the Coronavirus the wish fullfillment of the OK, Boomer sentiment? Kind of line when it turned out $hit was a literal cursed word on South Park
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 09, 2020, 11:49:08 AM
What's with the TP hoarding anyway?  Is it because people think that there's a likelihood of self quarantine and you won't get to the store to purchase TP?  Because I don't see anything in the stated symptoms that would increase the need to use TP, like diarrhea.

Cause regardless of the actual nature of the virus and its pending effect on the US, we're reached near peak irrational fear.  People hear "sickness" and "shortage" and start grabbing stuff like TP and hoarding.  Paper products aren't being made in China, so its not like there is a coming shortage due to the supply chain issues.  People are just being idiots cause they think everyone is going to be infected and you will be confined to your home for weeks.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 09, 2020, 11:52:53 AM
Semi-sarcastic theory.....how surprised would you be if this whole Covid-19 was a Yale sociology thought experiment gone awry. Like it's all a social experiment on herd mentality and the fatalistic state of global media? I'd be around like 10% surprised at this point.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 09, 2020, 11:53:29 AM
https://twitter.com/amateuradam/status/1236733713129639940?s=19
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 09, 2020, 11:58:28 AM
https://twitter.com/amateuradam/status/1236733713129639940?s=19

Social patterns and population concentration are totally different between continental Europe and the US. The north eastern corridor might see the type of Italian growth factor but I think population density is totally different within the US which will naturally act to slow the spread. The overall concern of Coronavirus is not that the virus is in of itself a death sentance....it's that it spreads faster than the local healthcare infrastructure can support. If the population "saturation" rate is like 3 or 4 weeks versus the 14 weeks that you've seen in Italy or China this is an aggressive flu versus some sort of culling.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 09, 2020, 12:03:44 PM
What's with the TP hoarding anyway?  Is it because people think that there's a likelihood of self quarantine and you won't get to the store to purchase TP?  Because I don't see anything in the stated symptoms that would increase the need to use TP, like diarrhea.

If the hoarding gets bad enough, can't we just go shoot the people who have stuff and take it for ourselves?

Works in the movies!
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 09, 2020, 12:06:26 PM
If the hoarding gets bad enough, can't we just go shoot the people who have stuff and take it for ourselves?

Works in the movies!

I'm working on my barbwire bat as we speak....
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: cheebs09 on March 09, 2020, 12:12:38 PM
DC priest is confirmed with Covid-19, distributed communion over the last two weeks to at least 500 people.....I think we can probably close the book on containment.

Time to go find a Typhoid Mary/Marty to hang out with to get the contagion over and done with. Benny, you find a source for yourself yet?

I’m a little surprised the Blood of Christ at mass. I figure that’s going to stop pretty soon.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sir Lawrence on March 09, 2020, 12:18:26 PM
I’m a little surprised the Blood of Christ at mass. I figure that’s going to stop pretty soon.

Green Bay Diocese put a halt to wine distribution and hand shaking during the "kiss of peace" exchange over the weekend for Saturday and Sunday liturgies.  I guess the Milwaukee Archdiocese is leaving the wine/blood of Christ distribution up to the parish pastor. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 09, 2020, 12:48:22 PM
I’m a little surprised the Blood of Christ at mass. I figure that’s going to stop pretty soon.

None of the churches in Connecticut do the wine at mass.  I've never seen here like forever.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 09, 2020, 12:54:46 PM
Semi-sarcastic theory.....how surprised would you be if this whole Covid-19 was a Yale sociology thought experiment gone awry. Like it's all a social experiment on herd mentality and the fatalistic state of global media? I'd be around like 10% surprised at this point.

  i'd stop my donations immediately
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on March 09, 2020, 12:57:59 PM
What's with the TP hoarding anyway?  Is it because people think that there's a likelihood of self quarantine and you won't get to the store to purchase TP?  Because I don't see anything in the stated symptoms that would increase the need to use TP, like diarrhea.

I thought this thread was cool on the TP hoarding - https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1234993431375536128 (https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1234993431375536128)

Basically, the behavior is the transition from a fear that some event (covid-19) will cause a shortage, which is irrational, to the fear that everyone else has that fear and will therefore cause a shortage, which is actually rational.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 09, 2020, 01:21:52 PM
Well this is depressing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 09, 2020, 01:35:33 PM
I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 09, 2020, 02:02:00 PM
I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.


If this gets as widespread as in Italy and lasts for more than just a few weeks, I suspect the answer to all three is YES.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 09, 2020, 02:06:10 PM
I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.

Polling for 2 and 3 shows public opinion support already, prior to this virus.

However, IMO, the fact that we might need a pandemic illness to force political action on 2 and 3 is sad.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 09, 2020, 02:09:43 PM
Honestly, I don't see COVID19 changing the political landscape beyond a few percentage points because voters are so tribal now.

Yes, close elections can be flipped.   But on policy (universal health care, sick leave, etc) you need a larger sea change of politicians (and media resistance.)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: shoothoops on March 09, 2020, 02:14:47 PM
I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.

Hurricane Maria.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 09, 2020, 02:16:51 PM
Doubtful on universal healthcare but could see universal basic healthcare? Idk what that would entail maybe tests and vaccines? But IMO it's doubtful anything beyond that gets added.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 09, 2020, 02:19:21 PM
I'm working on my barbwire bat as we speak....

Meh.  Board with a nail seems to work just fine.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on March 09, 2020, 02:20:10 PM
Honestly, I don't see COVID19 changing the political landscape beyond a few percentage points because voters are so tribal now.

Yes, close elections can be flipped.   But on policy (universal health care, sick leave, etc) you need a larger sea change of politicians (and media resistance.)

I agree with this.  There are no consensus answers for "what" is even happening anymore, let alone "why" something is happening.  And without drawing that causation, people just aren't going to swing on these big issues.

A (only slightly) less political outcome I'm worried about is if the institutions at play get their arms around this thing, and it reinforces the "see this was never a big deal" perspective.  That would be an example where the bureaucracy works effectively, but because the spread doesn't get worse, people attribute the consequences to it never being a big deal in the first place and we continue to see those institutions get kneecapped.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TSmith34 on March 09, 2020, 02:23:41 PM
Honestly, I don't see COVID19 changing the political landscape beyond a few percentage points because voters are so tribal now.

Yes, close elections can be flipped.   But on policy (universal health care, sick leave, etc) you need a larger sea change of politicians (and media resistance.)
This is pretty much how I see it as well, although a few percentage points is more than enough to decide an election.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 09, 2020, 02:23:49 PM
I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.

I think the political frame-up is probably the wrong way to look at it, not that the politics of it shouldn't be analyzed but politics is about the retention or acquisition of power so where you/your party falls on a crisis like this is all about whether you are the former or the later. If you reframe your questions as cultural in nature, I think it's very interesting.

One side note, as to the universal healthcare...it is an interesting by-product of the virus itself that those who actually have universal access(medicare/medicaid) are the ones really impacted by this. So in that regard, I don't think it actually moves the needle on it though I think if you are pro-universal healthcare you would certainly frame it up that way politically.

1. Absolutely it could, but it's a trigger mechanism for cultural change. Between the virus and the financial impact to the populace it is natural that we would culturally desire a change of leadership.

2. Does this change our appetite for healthcare spending and/or systemic change of the delivery model? Ultimately I don't see it changing our views on healthcare simply because I don't think the system will "fail" here.

3. Does this change how we view tele-commuting and what do we do/invest in for those who can't tele-commute? Does this drive further automation? I think we get a lot more automation but it seems like the virus has limited impact on those with little to no health coverage so I'd question (so far) what appetite would be changed for supporting the less fortunate more than is already done.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Warrior2008 on March 09, 2020, 02:26:05 PM
I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.

1. Yes, not having enough tests while downplaying the severity didn't help.
2. No. Italy has a universal healthcare model that the WHO considers one of the best in the world and they had to quarantine a third of their country because by many accounts their healthcare system was on the verge of collapse.  So by having one doesn't necessarily mean you are better prepared to deal with any kind of healthcare emergency.
3. I think yes, but want to reserve judgment. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 09, 2020, 02:26:30 PM
I agree with this.  There are no consensus answers for "what" is even happening anymore, let alone "why" something is happening.  And without drawing that causation, people just aren't going to swing on these big issues.

A (only slightly) less political outcome I'm worried about is if the institutions at play get their arms around this thing, and it reinforces the "see this was never a big deal" perspective.  That would be an example where the bureaucracy works effectively, but because the spread doesn't get worse, people attribute the consequences to it never being a big deal in the first place and we continue to see those institutions get kneecapped.

Starve the beast...."See? We told you those organizations were ineffectual."
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Warrior2008 on March 09, 2020, 02:59:09 PM
Well this is depressing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

That is and so is this one.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/italy-coronavirus-covid19-west-europe-future/607660/

There are literally not going to be enough beds to put sick patients in if the current rate continues, never mind all of the other regular hospitalizations and ICU traffic that comes in.  Will they transport infected patients to hospitals elsewhere throughout the country or will that only seed the spread of the virus?  Simply put, there are no easy answers here.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: SERocks on March 09, 2020, 03:07:09 PM
I have a kid who lives in San Bernardino.  He texted me last  night and asked if we had hand sanitizer.  I said of course we do.  Apparently they are all out of it out there and he wanted me to buy a bunch and ship it to him so he could sell it at a profit.  I went to Walgreens at lunch and they are completely out...cannot keep it in stock.  I had no idea things were nutty around here too.  It is tax season so I don't get out much, but really. I thought SE WI was bit calmer than that.....
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 09, 2020, 03:20:14 PM
I have a kid who lives in San Bernardino.  He texted me last  night and asked if we had hand sanitizer.  I said of course we do.  Apparently they are all out of it out there and he wanted me to buy a bunch and ship it to him so he could sell it at a profit.  I went to Walgreens at lunch and they are completely out...cannot keep it in stock.  I had no idea things were nutty around here too.  It is tax season so I don't get out much, but really. I thought SE WI was bit calmer than that.....

Most everywhere in SE-WI/NE-IL has been sold out of sanitizer and N95 masks for about two weeks.

Now it's starting to become difficult to find 100% aloe vera gel (to make your own sanitizer).


DIY tip: Menards sells "Splash" brand gas line antifreeze in two versions... if you get the red bottle that says "PX-99" on it, it's (nominally) 100% isopropyl alcohol, perfect for home-made sanitizer (just don't drink it).  And it's only $1.50/bottle (for now, any way).
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: reinko on March 09, 2020, 03:21:49 PM
I have a kid who lives in San Bernardino.  He texted me last  night and asked if we had hand sanitizer.  I said of course we do.  Apparently they are all out of it out there and he wanted me to buy a bunch and ship it to him so he could sell it at a profit.  I went to Walgreens at lunch and they are completely out...cannot keep it in stock.  I had no idea things were nutty around here too.  It is tax season so I don't get out much, but really. I thought SE WI was bit calmer than that.....

Yay for your kid who wants to price gouge and profit off the fears of their fellow man?

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 09, 2020, 03:28:33 PM
I have a kid who lives in San Bernardino.  He texted me last  night and asked if we had hand sanitizer.  I said of course we do.  Apparently they are all out of it out there and he wanted me to buy a bunch and ship it to him so he could sell it at a profit.  I went to Walgreens at lunch and they are completely out...cannot keep it in stock.  I had no idea things were nutty around here too.  It is tax season so I don't get out much, but really. I thought SE WI was bit calmer than that.....


I’d be embarrassed to have a kid like that.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: SERocks on March 09, 2020, 03:39:30 PM
Heck I don't even know how much hand sanitizer costs.  That was the first thing I was going to check as he said it is going for $2.00 per ounce.  Does not seem like a whole lot to me.  Certainly isn't $300 for an epi-pen.  I bet Jockey and Reinko have probably at one point or another invested in stocks where the companies price gouge, but never mind that.  Take a shot at a kid in CA (and me) trying to obtain something that is not readily available and make a small profit on it.

Best bet, don't be a dick guys.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 09, 2020, 03:51:33 PM
I have a kid who lives in San Bernardino.  He texted me last  night and asked if we had hand sanitizer.  I said of course we do.  Apparently they are all out of it out there and he wanted me to buy a bunch and ship it to him so he could sell it at a profit.  I went to Walgreens at lunch and they are completely out...cannot keep it in stock.  I had no idea things were nutty around here too.  It is tax season so I don't get out much, but really. I thought SE WI was bit calmer than that.....

Yikes. Tell your kid to contribute to society in more productive ways.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: JWags85 on March 09, 2020, 04:04:17 PM
Heck I don't even know how much hand sanitizer costs.  That was the first thing I was going to check as he said it is going for $2.00 per ounce.  Does not seem like a whole lot to me.  Certainly isn't $300 for an epi-pen.  I bet Jockey and Reinko have probably at one point or another invested in stocks where the companies price gouge, but never mind that.  Take a shot at a kid in CA (and me) trying to obtain something that is not readily available and make a small profit on it.

Best bet, don't be a dick guys.

Lol, thats a pretty awful justification. And the irony in your closing statement is rich.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: SERocks on March 09, 2020, 04:06:01 PM
Wow.  So the take away from my story is that my kid is a price gouging fool. 

This place is nuts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 09, 2020, 04:12:24 PM
Wow.  So the take away from my story is that my kid is a price gouging fool. 

This place is nuts.

Sorry if I came off dick-ish, but I stand by the spirit of what I said. I think this would be a good teaching moment if it was my kid.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 09, 2020, 04:13:31 PM
Heck I don't even know how much hand sanitizer costs.  That was the first thing I was going to check as he said it is going for $2.00 per ounce.  Does not seem like a whole lot to me.


$2 an ounce?  Like a 10 oz container for $20?  That's nuts for what is basically a convenience .. a bar of soap is $1 and will last you 300 hand washings.

I was at Walmart today .. hand sanitizer, toilet paper, wipes, bleach, cough medicine, multi-vitamins .. completely gone or almost gone.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jficke13 on March 09, 2020, 04:20:24 PM
The Guardian put up an article suggesting that people use "bleach and hydrogen peroxide to disinfect surfaces." (they've since corrected the 'and' to an 'or'). Follow that advice and it's a pretty safe bet you won't die from COVID-19...

The Guardian, helping you imitate Ypres in your kitchen.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Golden Avalanche on March 09, 2020, 04:26:52 PM
Wow.  So the take away from my story is that my kid is a price gouging fool. 

This place is nuts.

You relayed a tale in which your son sounds like a dick, you're enabling the dick-ish behavior, and you have no idea how much hand sanitizer costs because "it's tax season".

People rightly noted there was a lot of dick in that story. This place isn't nuts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: reinko on March 09, 2020, 04:27:50 PM
Heck I don't even know how much hand sanitizer costs.  That was the first thing I was going to check as he said it is going for $2.00 per ounce.  Does not seem like a whole lot to me.  Certainly isn't $300 for an epi-pen.  I bet Jockey and Reinko have probably at one point or another invested in stocks where the companies price gouge, but never mind that.  Take a shot at a kid in CA (and me) trying to obtain something that is not readily available and make a small profit on it.

Best bet, don't be a dick guys.

Run on baby formula too, so ship him some of that too.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on March 09, 2020, 04:31:22 PM
All of Italy is now on lockdown.  60 million people.
Starts tomorrow.

Looks like that European model universal health care system ain't working so good?  Is this the downfall of Conte?  Does Italy go more socialist to solve their covid 19 problems?   ::)

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 09, 2020, 04:39:01 PM
All of Italy is now on lockdown.  60 million people.
Starts tomorrow.

Looks like that European model universal health care system ain't working so good?  Is this the downfall of Conte?  Does Italy go more socialist to solve their covid 19 problems?   ::)

Italy = every European healthcare system?  ::)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on March 09, 2020, 04:41:02 PM
Italy = every European healthcare system?  ::)

No, someone else said that italy is the model healthcare system for the WHO.  Words are hard.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 09, 2020, 05:00:04 PM
All of Italy is now on lockdown.  60 million people.
Starts tomorrow.

Looks like that European model universal health care system ain't working so good?  Is this the downfall of Conte?  Does Italy go more socialist to solve their covid 19 problems?   ::)

Socialist is such a weird trigger word with genX/boomers.

So if the US has the worst outcome/fatalities/infection compared to other 1st world countries, what does that say about our healthcare system?

IMO, it says nothing. Because this is a one-off pandemic that doesn't represent what the goals of a healthcare system is about. This is more representative of emergency preparedness.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 09, 2020, 05:19:44 PM
No, someone else said that italy is the model healthcare system for the WHO.  Words are hard.

Did not see that anywhere. NHS seems to have a pretty good handle on it
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Retire0 on March 09, 2020, 05:52:14 PM
No, someone else said that italy is the model healthcare system for the WHO.  Words are hard.

I find that interesting because I find a lot of Italians to be gross when it comes to cleanliness.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZaLiN on March 09, 2020, 06:05:40 PM
Right in the middle of modeling supply scenarios (Medical device and pharma) for the outbreak. So far we are only shifting volume from 2H to 1H production but we have our "all hell breaks loose" model being discussed and they are something...
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: lawdog77 on March 09, 2020, 06:44:56 PM
My brother lives in Avon, Indiana, so my niece and nephew have two weeks off of school. Two kids of tested positive for Coronavirus I feel sorry for my sister-in-law's since she's a stay-at-home mom.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 09, 2020, 06:48:06 PM
Heck I don't even know how much hand sanitizer costs.  That was the first thing I was going to check as he said it is going for $2.00 per ounce.  Does not seem like a whole lot to me.  Certainly isn't $300 for an epi-pen.  I bet Jockey and Reinko have probably at one point or another invested in stocks where the companies price gouge, but never mind that.  Take a shot at a kid in CA (and me) trying to obtain something that is not readily available and make a small profit on it.

Best bet, don't be a dick guys.

Awful cavalier attitude.  I bet if it wasn't your kid, you wouldn't approve... but maybe the apple doesn't fall far from the tree.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 09, 2020, 06:58:53 PM
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1237061056620625921

Something to keep an eye on.  I expect numbers to increase, significantly.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 09, 2020, 07:08:33 PM
Brutal thread from an Italian doc:

https://twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933818654896129
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: warriorchick on March 09, 2020, 07:10:57 PM
My brother lives in Avon, Indiana, so my niece and nephew have two weeks off of school. Two kids of tested positive for Coronavirus I feel sorry for my sister-in-law's since she's a stay-at-home mom.

If she is a SAHM with school age children, what does she normally keep busy with while the kids are at school?

If you want to feel sorry for someone, feel sorry for the paycheck-to-paycheck single moms who will have to take unpaid leave to watch their kids.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 09, 2020, 07:14:46 PM
If she is a SAHM with school age children, what does she normally keep busy with while the kids are at school?

If you want to feel sorry for someone, feel sorry for the paycheck-to-paycheck single moms who will have to take unpaid leave to watch their kids.

Exactly, now imagine that is most Americans (it is).  What happens to supply chain?  What happens to basically everything?  Collapse.

I'm hopeful (but not confident) that the US government has used the time that they have had since we learned of this to develop solutions for those problems.

Because, I don't dare to think about what happens when millions can't afford to pay rent, CC bills... hell everything they need to pay on a monthly basis to stay afloat.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 09, 2020, 07:17:14 PM
Brutal thread from an Italian doc:

https://twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933818654896129

(https://media.giphy.com/media/MPLpvJcsWvrkk/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 09, 2020, 07:22:32 PM
If we don't have the test kits, then no epidemic.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/d3mlE7uhX8KFgEmY/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 09, 2020, 07:27:01 PM
https://www.channel3000.com/dhs-confirms-second-case-of-coronavirus-in-wisconsin/?fbclid=IwAR3PAT1L_bK6PEfuE1N4EpgiCiaeQoTMoxzbPD0FS8t3S9kZUX0SEb4WvPA

Pierce County is rural western Wisconsin very near MSP
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 09, 2020, 08:01:59 PM
thought i posted this earlier-as recent as saturday, 3/7 was able to order kleenex germ wipe tissues. 8  packs of 48.  allowed me to get 2 so i got 768 wipes for $44.00 or roughly .05-.06 per wipe.  supposed to arrive 3/9-3/16.  they haven't yet come today, but not going to hold my breath

along the same lines, spoke to my sullivan-schein rep-she said they do not gouge during times like these, but they have limits on orders for infection control stuff like masks.  although i haven't checked the prices, but we can only order 3 boxes of level 3.  i never thought of asking her how often and what  larger offices do.   i've known her a long time, so i've taken her word for it.  what i am going to do?  shop around? 

here's a real catch 22-what if obtaining the proper infection control armamentarium becomes more difficult allowing any facility for that matter unable to maintain OSHA standards.  this becomes a real slippery slope.  do not interpret this as sounding any alarms, but i believe the media has been causing some unnecessary panic and this is some of the collateral damage.  pretty close to yelling fire in a crowded theater
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: lawdog77 on March 09, 2020, 08:11:58 PM
If she is a SAHM with school age children, what does she normally keep busy with while the kids are at school?

If you want to feel sorry for someone, feel sorry for the paycheck-to-paycheck single moms who will have to take unpaid leave to watch their kids.
I agree with you 1000%, my comment about my sister in law was tounge in cheek, as her children can be quite the misfits.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 09, 2020, 08:39:31 PM
thought i posted this earlier-as recent as saturday, 3/7 was able to order kleenex germ wipe tissues. 8  packs of 48.  allowed me to get 2 so i got 768 wipes for $44.00 or roughly .05-.06 per wipe.  supposed to arrive 3/9-3/16.  they haven't yet come today, but not going to hold my breath

along the same lines, spoke to my sullivan-schein rep-she said they do not gouge during times like these, but they have limits on orders for infection control stuff like masks.  although i haven't checked the prices, but we can only order 3 boxes of level 3.  i never thought of asking her how often and what  larger offices do.   i've known her a long time, so i've taken her word for it.  what i am going to do?  shop around? 

here's a real catch 22-what if obtaining the proper infection control armamentarium becomes more difficult allowing any facility for that matter unable to maintain OSHA standards.  this becomes a real slippery slope.  do not interpret this as sounding any alarms, but i believe the media has been causing some unnecessary panic and this is some of the collateral damage.  pretty close to yelling fire in a crowded theater

Is it the media's fault if this is exactly what happened in China and SK?  There is a world wide shortage, and there will be.  What we see now is just the first wave of panic.  I'd wager that the true panic hasn't set in because the vast majority of people in the US aren't taking this seriously, or haven't even thought about stocking up on supplies.  Sure some have.  They're bring proactive.  Just wait until people start tracking trucks with loads of supplies meant for the stores and they don't make it to the store.  Then we will know what true panic is.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 09, 2020, 08:44:49 PM
Is it the media's fault if this is exactly what happened in China and SK?  There is a world wide shortage, and there will be.  What we see now is just the first wave of panic.  I'd wager that the true panic hasn't set in because the vast majority of people in the US aren't taking this seriously, or haven't even thought about stocking up on supplies.  Sure some have.  They're bring proactive.  Just wait until people start tracking trucks with loads of supplies meant for the stores and they don't make it to the store.  Then we will know what true panic is.

no, not the media's fault but there is "other stuff" happening

we aren't taking this seriously enough?  no, we haven't put everyone under house arrest yet, but judging by shortages of "stuff" and half empty airlines, trains, closing "stuff" etc etc.  so what will it be tipping you off that we are taking this seriously?  not everything happens in your backyard.  the stock market seems to be taking it seriously...actually too seriously, but that's a whole different topic that gives me a tummy ache right now
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 09, 2020, 08:51:13 PM
no, not the media's fault but there is "other stuff" happening

we aren't taking this seriously enough?  no, we haven't put everyone under house arrest yet, but judging by shortages of "stuff" and half empty airlines, trains, closing "stuff" etc etc.  so what will it be tipping you off that we are taking this seriously?  not everything happens in your backyard.  the stock market seems to be taking it seriously...actually too seriously, but that's a whole different topic that gives me a tummy ache right now

Fair enough, obviously, emotion is what they sell, but there will never be a shortage of outrage in the news. 

We haven't put people under house arrest yet, but we should consider it.  The US is letting this progress just like other countries where things went very badly... which seems to be everywhere but SK and Singapore (not really fair to judge).  Europe is being reactive, and its not working out so well.  SEA is doing it right. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 09, 2020, 09:09:01 PM
Thought I posted this, but obviously didn't go through.

Regarding Italy's healthcare. There care is great. The problem has nothing to do with the healthcare system it has to do with:

1. Italy has the oldest population in all of Europe.
2. Enough cases slipped through the initial cracks, allowing spread.
3. Politicians were emphasizing that there was nothing to worry about and that it was just a flu. Leading to people not taking precautions.

That led to rapid spread. People not going to the doctor, or quarantining themselves, and the result is what you see now.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 09, 2020, 09:13:20 PM
Thought I posted this, but obviously didn't go through.

Regarding Italy's healthcare. There care is great. The problem has nothing to do with the healthcare system it has to do with:

1. Italy has the oldest population in all of Europe.
2. Enough cases slipped through the initial cracks, allowing spread.
3. Politicians were emphasizing that there was nothing to worry about and that it was just a flu. Leading to people not taking precautions.

That led to rapid spread. People not going to the doctor, or quarantining themselves, and the result is what you see now.

America - "Two out of three ain't bad"
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 09, 2020, 10:20:30 PM
Yay for your kid who wants to price gouge and profit off the fears of their fellow man?

To be fair, he said “profit,” not “gouge.”

Frankly, if there was an oversupply in one part of the country and a shortage in the other, shipping product to your kid to distribute at a fair profit (to cover the time/effort) seems like it would be doing society a favor.

Maintain perspective, people. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 09, 2020, 10:35:36 PM
To be fair, he said “profit,” not “gouge.”

Frankly, if there was an oversupply in one part of the country and a shortage in the other, shipping product to your kid to distribute at a fair profit (to cover the time/effort) seems like it would be doing society a favor.

Maintain perspective, people.

This. Plus maybe his kid needed toilet paper, he can use the hand San to barter for it. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 09, 2020, 10:56:15 PM
here's a real catch 22-what if obtaining the proper infection control armamentarium becomes more difficult allowing any facility for that matter unable to maintain OSHA standards.  this becomes a real slippery slope. 

Seriously dude, have you been living under a rock? I've been telling you this. This is already happening.  Healthcare centers in the US with 100s of clinics can't get resupplied. Dr's, PA's, MA's are freaking out. We're already past the point of being able to stop this. 

And to the Twitter thread from the Italian doc, read it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Marquette Gyros on March 09, 2020, 11:14:26 PM
This. Plus maybe his kid needed toilet paper, he can use the hand San to barter for it.

The worst part is that he willingly lives in San Bernardino.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 09, 2020, 11:54:24 PM
Seriously dude, have you been living under a rock? I've been telling you this. This is already happening.  Healthcare centers in the US with 100s of clinics can't get resupplied. Dr's, PA's, MA's are freaking out. We're already past the point of being able to stop this. 

And to the Twitter thread from the Italian doc, read it.

Quote
/ I may be repeating myself, but I want to fight this sense of security that I see outside of the epicenters, as if nothing was going to happen "here". The media in Europe are reassuring, politicians are reassuring, while there's little to be reassured of. #COVID19 #coronavirus

2/ This is the English translation of a post of another ICU physician in Bergamo, Dr. Daniele Macchini. Read until the end "After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible.

3/ I will therefore try to convey to people far from our reality what we are living in Bergamo in these days of Covid-19 pandemic. I understand the need not to create panic, but when the message of the dangerousness of what is happening does not reach people I shudder.

4/ I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly "emptied", elective activitieswere interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible.

5/ All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity.

6/ I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I've seen what's happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least.

7/ The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace.

8/ The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

9/ Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. [post continues comparing covid19 to flu, link below]. And while there are still people who boast of not being afraid by ignoring directions, protesting because their normal routine is"temporarily" put in crisis,

10/ the epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.

11/ Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.

12/ Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be hospitalized.

13/ Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it's too late... Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before.

14/ The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn't know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask "what can I do for you now?"

15/ Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can't save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny.

16/ There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols.

17/ Some of our colleagues who are infected also have infected relatives and some of their relatives are already struggling between life and death. So be patient, you can't go to the theatre, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate.

18/ We just try to make ourselves useful. You should do the same: we influence the life and death of a few dozen people. You with yours, many more. Please share this message. We must spread the word to prevent what is happening here from happening all over Italy."

20/ I finish by saying that I really don't understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there's no mask on sale anymore. We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?

19/ Full post here, you can DeepL:

«Con le nostre azioni influenziamo la vita e la morte di molte persone»Con un lungo post su Facebook, il dottor Daniele Macchini, medico dell’Humanitas Gavazzeni, racconta la sua vita in prima linea per contrastare il coronavirus. È una testimonianza da brividi, da legg…https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/con-le-nostre-azioni-influenziamola-vita-e-la-morte-di-molte-persone_1344030_11/

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Imma help

rocky's edit: imma fix your quotes
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: SoCalwarrior on March 10, 2020, 12:52:27 AM
Wait, Pearl Jam just canceled their tour? Ok, now it's real to me.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 10, 2020, 07:39:56 AM
The "panic, the end is nigh" crowd should probably step back and look at things a little more detailed. So far the most catastrophic and widespread outbreaks have been in two places, China and Italy. What do those two countries have in common?

-Very dense populations
-Extremely pervasive smoking culture
-Low public hygiene culture(especially northern Italy, hoo boy).
-Aging/older population

There is no doubt that the virus is something to be vigilant about and there is also no doubt that if what is happening in Italy were happening, in say, New York State that there would be a lot of panic and stress on the system.....but I don't think that the virus is nearly deadly enough nor going to be widespread enough to do more than cause a short term recession and stress people out for a couple of weeks.

I think 6 months from now we're going to have tons of think pieces on why all the hullabaloo was and why the media is bad and then we'll have counter think pieces about how nothing happened which means the system worked so the angst was all justified.....good times
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 10, 2020, 07:43:23 AM
Yeah the Facebook memes and Presidential tweets comparing this to the flu in hopes of minimizing the problem don't really understand the point.  It's not about stopping healthy people like myself from catching this.  It's about slowing the spread so our health system can manage it when it REALLY starts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 10, 2020, 07:44:13 AM
The "panic, the end is nigh" crowd should probably step back and look at things a little more detailed. So far the most catastrophic and widespread outbreaks have been in two places, China and Italy. What do those two countries have in common?

-Very dense populations
-Extremely pervasive smoking culture
-Low public hygiene culture(especially northern Italy, hoo boy).
-Aging/older population

There is no doubt that the virus is something to be vigilant about and there is also no doubt that if what is happening in Italy were happening, in say, New York State that there would be a lot of panic and stress on the system.....but I don't think that the virus is nearly deadly enough nor going to be widespread enough to do more than cause a short term recession and stress people out for a couple of weeks.

I think 6 months from now we're going to have tons of think pieces on why all the hullabaloo was and why the media is bad and then we'll have counter think pieces about how nothing happened which means the system worked so the angst was all justified.....good times

Iran too.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 10, 2020, 07:49:46 AM
So when do they suggest you go get tested? Fever? Shortness of breath? Congestion? These seem like symptoms of a cold, so are they advising precaution or what
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Marquette Gyros on March 10, 2020, 07:56:23 AM
Iran too.

Speaking of...
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on March 10, 2020, 09:10:49 AM
So when do they suggest you go get tested? Fever? Shortness of breath? Congestion? These seem like symptoms of a cold, so are they advising precaution or what

This is the difficulty for me too, and I think its where it becomes impossible to discuss this completely apolitically.  The fact is that we fracked up the response by delaying the production of tests, and now we have a shortage and no way to have a good handle on what is going on. There could be a lot of reasons for that, and it could have happened to any administration (the political pissing match is over why the delay, and how likely it would have been in various admnistrations - which is the kind of stuff we've all agreed not to discuss around here).  But its a fact that we delayed on readying tests, even compared to other countries, and now we don't have remotely enough.

This is resulting in mealy-mouthed, useless guidelines into who should seek tests, and how they should do it.  And that's because none of the powers that be are willing to admit there aren't enough tests, and so we have to restrict access to them more than we should.  Its compounding the error. FWIW, if you haven't traveled to a hot zone, and you haven't had contact with someone you know to have tested positive, you aint getting a test right now. But you might still have covid-19, so unless you have symptoms beyond typical cold-mild flu stuff, self-quarantine and stay outta the health care system.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 10, 2020, 09:13:31 AM
Iran too.

Great point, forgot about Iran....they have all the same intrinsic markers that Italy and China do that make them very vulnerable to an overly negative impact from a virus of this type. Essentially Covid 19 is a respiratory flu, so dense/aging/respiratory adverse nations are going to struggle with it. Add in any infrastructure problems and it gets bad. However the majority of countries in the developed world don't have the perfect storm that Iran/Italy/China has so while it will be impactful it won't be the worst case scenario
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 09:13:51 AM
The "panic, the end is nigh" crowd should probably step back and look at things a little more detailed. So far the most catastrophic and widespread outbreaks have been in two places, China and Italy. What do those two countries have in common?

-Very dense populations
-Extremely pervasive smoking culture
-Low public hygiene culture(especially northern Italy, hoo boy).
-Aging/older population


You are spot on. I just checked The WHO data on smoking rates, and they bear that out.

China: 45.7% of men and 1.4% of women (about 23.5% overall).
Italy: 26.9% of men and 19.6% of women (about 23.8% overall).
US: 17.4% of men and 13.0% of women (about 15.2% overall).

I suspect the dramatic difference between men and women in China is a cultural thing, but even if you take the approximate average, the OVERALL smoking rate in both Italy and China is more than 50% higher than in the US. Combine that with the higher population density, and Italy and China have all the hallmarks of being more susceptible targets than the US. It also wouldn't surprise me if China has less restrictive workplace bans on smoking, so second-hand smoke may also be a bigger factor.

Yes, we need to be vigilant...but I think we need to step back from the ledge....
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 09:23:39 AM
Sounds good guys.  Looks like scoop has figured it out.  Someone alert the WHO and CDC that this is just a smokers disease.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 10, 2020, 09:25:32 AM
Sounds good guys.  Looks like scoop has figured it out.  Someone alert the WHO and CDC that this is just a smokers disease.

That's sort of a ridiculous conclusion. The point they were making was why the spread has been explosive in those areas and severity has been worse.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Bocephys on March 10, 2020, 09:27:43 AM
Great point, forgot about Iran....they have all the same intrinsic markers that Italy and China do that make them very vulnerable to an overly negative impact from a virus of this type. Essentially Covid 19 is a respiratory flu, so dense/aging/respiratory adverse nations are going to struggle with it. Add in any infrastructure problems and it gets bad. However the majority of countries in the developed world don't have the perfect storm that Iran/Italy/China has so while it will be impactful it won't be the worst case scenario

Wouldn't the rural US have most of those same markers (outside of population density of course)?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
Sounds good guys.  Looks like scoop has figured it out.  Someone alert the WHO and CDC that this is just a smokers disease.

Hyperbolic much?

Nobody said it is "just a smokers disease," and mu03eng and I both added that the US still has to be vigilant. But the 50% higher rate of smoking, combined with the higher population density, are risk factors that both WHO and CDC acknowledge.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 09:37:50 AM
Wouldn't the rural US have most of those same markers (outside of population density of course)?


Likely so. But you can be highly susceptible, and you still won't get the illness if you don't come into close contact with someone who carries the virus.

It's a combination of risk factors like age, smoking, etc...plus coming into close contact with someone who carries the virus (which increases with population density).

The US has relatively low smoking rates and population density, and a younger population than most of Western Europe. So while we still have plenty of reason to be vigilant, there is also reason to believe we won't see the extremes they are seeing in Italy and China.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 09:48:55 AM

Likely so. But you can be highly susceptible, and you still won't get the illness if you don't come into close contact with someone who carries the virus.

It's a combination of risk factors like age, smoking, etc...plus coming into close contact with someone who carries the virus (which increases with population density).

The US has relatively low smoking rates and population density, and a younger population than most of Western Europe. So while we still have plenty of reason to be vigilant, there is also reason to believe we won't see the extremes they are seeing in Italy and China.

Just curious, where besides your and mu03eng's conjecture have you read that smokers contract the disease at a higher rate than average?

And since we're talking about smokers...

he ten countries with the highest smoking rates are:

    Kiribati (52.40%)
    Nauru (47.50%)
    Greece (42.65%)
    Serbia (41.65%)
    Russia (40.90%)
    Jordan (40.45%)
    Indonesia (39.90%)
    Bosnia and Herzegovina (38.60%)
    Lebanon (38.30%)
    Chile (38.00%)

Those are the ten countries with the highest smoking rates.  Strange that I don't see China or Italy on those lists.  Yet Covid2019 exists in 8 of those 10 places... and the two not on the list are tiny oceanic islands.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 10, 2020, 10:01:47 AM
The best news right now:

New cases in China are declining dramatically. Xi Jinping is visiting Wuhan today as a sign of confidence.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51813876

3,000 deaths in China sounds like a lot...but for a country of 1.386 billion, it really isn't. Yes, I know the caveat about the trustworthiness of China's numbers, but it does sound like this thing is coming under control. What can we learn from them?

Also, I know the Gates Foundation has chipped in a bit for this, by why are they not pouring more money into this?


Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 10, 2020, 10:05:35 AM
Just curious, where besides your and mu03eng's conjecture have you read that smokers contract the disease at a higher rate than average?

And since we're talking about smokers...

he ten countries with the highest smoking rates are:

    Kiribati (52.40%)
    Nauru (47.50%)
    Greece (42.65%)
    Serbia (41.65%)
    Russia (40.90%)
    Jordan (40.45%)
    Indonesia (39.90%)
    Bosnia and Herzegovina (38.60%)
    Lebanon (38.30%)
    Chile (38.00%)

Those are the ten countries with the highest smoking rates.  Strange that I don't see China or Italy on those lists.  Yet Covid2019 exists in 8 of those 10 places... and the two not on the list are tiny oceanic islands.


https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/925855

https://www.google.com/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/6634469/coronavirus-smoking/amp/


There's more but then there's also the correlation of smoking to things like heart disease, diabetes, various lung diseases all of which have shown to be risk factors for worse cases of the virus.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 10:15:40 AM

Just curious, where besides your and mu03eng's conjecture have you read that smokers contract the disease at a higher rate than average?



I never said they contract the disease at higher rates.

When they contract the virus, smokers are at risk for having more severe outcomes. Just like older people. Here is a UCSF paper citing a study that showed that smokers in China were at 14 times higher risk than non-smokers to have serious outcomes (including death) if they contracted covid-19. https://tobacco.ucsf.edu/reduce-your-risk-serious-lung-disease-caused-corona-virus-quitting-smoking-and-vaping

So no, it isn't just conjecture that smoking is a huge risk factor for a serious illness.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 10, 2020, 10:18:34 AM
Just curious, where besides your and mu03eng's conjecture have you read that smokers contract the disease at a higher rate than average?

And since we're talking about smokers...

he ten countries with the highest smoking rates are:

    Kiribati (52.40%)
    Nauru (47.50%)
    Greece (42.65%)
    Serbia (41.65%)
    Russia (40.90%)
    Jordan (40.45%)
    Indonesia (39.90%)
    Bosnia and Herzegovina (38.60%)
    Lebanon (38.30%)
    Chile (38.00%)

Those are the ten countries with the highest smoking rates.  Strange that I don't see China or Italy on those lists.  Yet Covid2019 exists in 8 of those 10 places... and the two not on the list are tiny oceanic islands.

Out of curiosity, would you be willing to disclose your current position in BTC and how far upside down you are?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Warrior2008 on March 10, 2020, 10:20:08 AM

Likely so. But you can be highly susceptible, and you still won't get the illness if you don't come into close contact with someone who carries the virus.

It's a combination of risk factors like age, smoking, etc...plus coming into close contact with someone who carries the virus (which increases with population density).

The US has relatively low smoking rates and population density, and a younger population than most of Western Europe. So while we still have plenty of reason to be vigilant, there is also reason to believe we won't see the extremes they are seeing in Italy and China.

4 of the 5 NYC boroughs have a higher population density than any Italian city.  In fact 14 US metro areas have a higher population density than any Italian city.  It jumps to 19 US metro areas if you want to compare it to the Italian epicenter of Milan.  And its great that the US has lower smoking rates, it will undoubtedly help.  But we also are leaders in hypertension and diabetes which are comorbidities to the virus which wouldn't. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 10:21:04 AM

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/925855

https://www.google.com/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/6634469/coronavirus-smoking/amp/


There's more but then there's also the correlation of smoking to things like heart disease, diabetes, various lung diseases all of which have shown to be risk factors for worse cases of the virus.

Well of course more people die when they are smokers and have underlying conditions.  I said 'contract' not 'expire'. 

I hope you understand why that is important.  What happens in the US and UK when the obese population gets the disease and start expiring?  Do countries with low numbers of obese people get to say, "oh no big deal, it primarily impacts smokers and obese populations"?  That's my point.  Pointing to smoking as problematic is a no brainer.  But smoking isn't the only factor that contributes to death from Covid19.  So stating that the US should have better outcomes because there aren't as many smokers is utter foolishness.

The main reason people survive this disease is proper medical treatment.  This is why testing is so important.  People that contract the disease need to be quarantined (in a hospital), and the people they have come into contact with need to self quarantine for a minimum of two weeks.  This doesn't mean go to the store, this doesn't mean go to work, this doesn't mean go to church.  Its stay home with all the people that live in the home.  If conditions of people in the home deteriorate then they go to the hospital.  When people act like this is, "just the flu, lol" they infect others who are more at risk, and we have what happened in China, Italy, and Iran... and what is happening in Spain, France, Germany... and coming soon to the USA.  SK showed the world how to deal with this.  Test everyone that came into contact with someone with Covid19, and then quarantine those who show symptoms and move from there.  That is what needs to happen world wide. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 10, 2020, 10:22:12 AM
Older than 50, enjoy your last Arby’s...

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/coronavirus-hard-older-people-scientists-aren-t-sure-why-n1153701
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 10:22:38 AM
Out of curiosity, would you be willing to disclose your current position in BTC and how far upside down you are?

Well, I bought heavily at 4k.  So I'm fine.  I have zero plans to sell anytime soon.  I won't say how much I bought... ever.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on March 10, 2020, 10:25:13 AM

Also, I know the Gates Foundation has chipped in a bit for this, by why are they not pouring more money into this?

I don't know this, but my first guess would be that there is a lack of NGO's active in this space?  If the responses are being handled almost entirely by the governments of each country, there aren't really entities to whom foundations could contribute to help with the emergency response?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 10:35:20 AM
4 of the 5 NYC boroughs have a higher population density than any Italian city.  In fact 14 US metro areas have a higher population density than any Italian city.  It jumps to 19 US metro areas if you want to compare it to the Italian epicenter of Milan.  And its great that the US has lower smoking rates, it will undoubtedly help.  But we also are leaders in hypertension and diabetes which are comorbidities to the virus which wouldn't.


No question there are parts of the US that have high risk factors for spread. But we also have huge swaths of land that are virtually empty compared to most of Western Europe.

Again - I never said there isn't cause for concern. Only that, as a relative thing, we have good reason to believe that places like China and Italy may very well be the worst of it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 10:42:45 AM

No question there are parts of the US that have high risk factors for spread. But we also have huge swaths of land that are virtually empty compared to most of Western Europe.

Again - I never said there isn't cause for concern. Only that, as a relative thing, we have good reason to believe that places like China and Italy may very well be the worst of it.

Absolutely, but this moves via people... and we don't stay in one place, or out on the range in Wyoming.  We go to work, stores, and school. 

Small villages in China were not immune either.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Bocephys on March 10, 2020, 10:58:35 AM

Likely so. But you can be highly susceptible, and you still won't get the illness if you don't come into close contact with someone who carries the virus.

It's a combination of risk factors like age, smoking, etc...plus coming into close contact with someone who carries the virus (which increases with population density).

The US has relatively low smoking rates and population density, and a younger population than most of Western Europe. So while we still have plenty of reason to be vigilant, there is also reason to believe we won't see the extremes they are seeing in Italy and China.

It will be interesting to see if western culture, specifically the US, plays a role in making things worse than needed within their regions.  China could impose extreme quarantine measures and no one batted an eyelash.  I was surprised to see Italy go as far as they did yesterday, but we haven't seen how effective it will be yet. 

If the US gets to a similar point, will the majority of people actually listen to prevent further spread?  I'm betting no.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: #UnleashSean on March 10, 2020, 11:10:44 AM
Ivy league just canceled all conference tournaments.

This is starting to get real for the us. The last time events like this were canceled was when Jordan went to play for the tunesquad
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 11:27:31 AM
Ivy league just canceled all conference tournaments.

This is starting to get real for the us. The last time events like this were canceled was when Jordan went to play for the tunesquad

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/l0ErK5H6exTmBN7ri/giphy.gif?cid=790b761117fc684b86f841920082d69a10f25bf68bcb4d34&rid=giphy.gif)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: lawdog77 on March 10, 2020, 11:48:43 AM
St. JOhn's and the Coronavirus

https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/st-johns-university-asks-students-to-vacate-dorms-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/ (https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/st-johns-university-asks-students-to-vacate-dorms-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: #UnleashSean on March 10, 2020, 12:23:18 PM
St. JOhn's and the Coronavirus

https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/st-johns-university-asks-students-to-vacate-dorms-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/ (https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/st-johns-university-asks-students-to-vacate-dorms-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/)

But are they shelling out the plane tickets
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 12:44:58 PM
Absolutely, but this moves via people... and we don't stay in one place, or out on the range in Wyoming.  We go to work, stores, and school. 

Small villages in China were not immune either.


Agreed. But I was not talking about anyplace being "immune" from an outbreak. I was just talking about the likely severity when an outbreak occurs.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 12:55:45 PM
https://www.channel3000.com/health-officials-confirm-third-case-of-coronavirus-in-wisconsin/
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 10, 2020, 01:05:26 PM
Why does anyone NEED to be tested?

Why not treat this like influenza? Take appropriate precautions before illness. Then, if you become symptomatic, stay home and get healthy.

If you become symptomatic and have comorbidities (respiratory dysfunction/elderly/autoimmune) or become severely compromised/ill, then go to hospital.

Seems pretty straightforward and should be treated like any other viral illness.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 01:12:08 PM
Why does anyone NEED to be tested?

Why not treat this like influenza? Take appropriate precautions before illness. Then, if you become symptomatic, stay home and get healthy.

If you become symptomatic and have comorbidities (respiratory dysfunction/elderly/autoimmune) or become severely compromised/ill, then go to hospital.

Seems pretty straightforward and should be treated like any other viral illness.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/l3q2K5jinAlChoCLS/giphy.gif)

Because it is nothing like influenza.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 10, 2020, 01:21:34 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/l3q2K5jinAlChoCLS/giphy.gif)

Because it is nothing like influenza.

So your position is anyone with possible covid-19 symptoms needs to seek testing?

Here are the current CDC recs:
Quote
If you are a close contact of someone with COVID-19 and develop symptoms of COVID-19, call your healthcare provider and tell them about your symptoms and your exposure. They will decide whether you need to be tested, but keep in mind that there is no treatment for COVID-19 and people who are mildly ill are able to isolate at home

If you are a resident in a community where there is ongoing spread of COVID-19 and you develop COVID-19 symptoms, call your healthcare provider and tell them about your symptoms. They will decide whether you need to be tested, but keep in mind that there is no treatment for COVID-19 and people who are mildly ill are able to isolate at home.

For people who are ill with COVID-19, but are not sick enough to be hospitalized, please follow CDC guidance on how to reduce the risk of spreading your illness to others. People who are mildly ill with COVID-19 are able to isolate at home during their illness.

Sure sounds like EVERYONE demonstrating symptoms doesn't NEED to be tested
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 10, 2020, 01:43:29 PM
St. JOhn's and the Coronavirus

https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/st-johns-university-asks-students-to-vacate-dorms-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/ (https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/st-johns-university-asks-students-to-vacate-dorms-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/)

One of my daughters is currently home for spring break with a friend. Another daughter is coming for spring break on Friday with a friend. I can't help but wonder if we're going to be hosting one or two friends for much longer than was expected.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sir Lawrence on March 10, 2020, 01:46:16 PM
This seems like a sensible article:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2020/03/10/uw-madison-health-expert-has-advice-on-how-to-fight-coronavirus/5004659002/

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 10, 2020, 01:51:29 PM
It would seem that - at this point - the primary benefit of testing is to observe the spread of the virus; the only other reason would be to fine-tune the mortality rate. 

Maybe we could have used testing to determine prophylactic/preemptive measures early on... which, incidentally, was pretty much the point of my original post on page 1.  But at this point a) we now have a much better idea of the relative mortality of the virus (not to mention high-risk groups) and b) it's already penetrated our borders.  So testing isn't going to stop anything from spreading... as we've already seen in Ohio, people in self-quarantine are already breaking quarantine.  In fact, the only action that can be taken on widespread testing is to enact selective quarantine measures* on the public, which I would think is a measure of last-resort.

Also, it appears that if you have symptoms, treatment is going to be the same for the individual whether or not they test positive.**  So if it's all but certain that 60-70% of the world's population will eventually be exposed to the virus, and your response is gearing up accordingly, I don't see any benefit in testing everyone.



*Selective quarantine measures are not putting entire cities, states, regions under quarantine... SQM is rounding people up who have tested positive and forcibly putting them under quarantine, be that in their home or elsewhere.

**Please note that I did not say "treatment is the same for everyone whether or not they test positive."  Obviously you are not going to treat a healthy 26-year old with symptoms the same way you treat a 62-year old with symptoms.  But if the 62-year old tests positive, you're going to treat them the same way as if he she did not test positive.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 10, 2020, 01:53:53 PM
This seems like a sensible article:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2020/03/10/uw-madison-health-expert-has-advice-on-how-to-fight-coronavirus/5004659002/

No health expert should ever end an article with "May the force be with you." 

(Not to mention that health experts should stick to health issues and let psychologists and economists handle the psychology and economic issues, respectively.)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 10, 2020, 02:00:36 PM
One of my daughters is currently home for spring break with a friend. Another daughter is coming for spring break on Friday with a friend. I can't help but wonder if we're going to be hosting one or two friends for much longer than was expected.

Just got off the phone with a colleague with a daughter at UMass...they've been told they aren't coming back after spring break and that all classes will be virtual for the remainder of the semester. Harvard is going on a break a week early and doing the same thing.

Looks like generally organizations are taking steps to flatten the infection curve and to Benny's point, just about everyone will get it and self-treat whether they know it or not. Hopefully the curve flattens enough in the next 3 weeks that the health systems manage through and we all have a good laugh about it over beers this summer.

I do wonder if the lasting impact of this virus is the acceleration of social distancing that was already going on(kids facetiming while hanging out instead of playing together in the same room or works tele-commuting, etc).
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 10, 2020, 02:02:49 PM

I do wonder if the lasting impact of this virus is the acceleration of social distancing that was already going on(kids facetiming while hanging out instead of playing together in the same room or works tele-commuting, etc).

I've also been thinking about lasting impacts, even after the outbreak is over. The one you listed is a good example. Do schools go to more online-based instruction? Do companies get serious about Telework for employees who don't really need to be in the office? Do more people get flu shots next year?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 02:05:54 PM
Just got off the phone with a colleague with a daughter at UMass...they've been told they aren't coming back after spring break and that all classes will be virtual for the remainder of the semester. Harvard is going on a break a week early and doing the same thing.

Looks like generally organizations are taking steps to flatten the infection curve and to Benny's point, just about everyone will get it and self-treat whether they know it or not. Hopefully the curve flattens enough in the next 3 weeks that the health systems manage through and we all have a good laugh about it over beers this summer.


I do wonder if the lasting impact of this virus is the acceleration of social distancing that was already going on(kids facetiming while hanging out instead of playing together in the same room or works tele-commuting, etc).

Super important.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 02:06:38 PM
JFC.  Calm down.  Smoke a bowl and listen to Ramblin Man.

You sure do like to tell me to smoke weed. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 10, 2020, 02:11:36 PM
I do wonder if the lasting impact of this virus is the acceleration of social distancing that was already going on(kids facetiming while hanging out instead of playing together in the same room or works tele-commuting, etc).

Interesting thought.  I think that would be highly dependent on how the under-40 population is ultimately affected (if at all).  Everyone I've talked to around the country (most in their 40's and 50's) seems to be exponentially more concerned with the public reaction to the virus than they are about actually contracting the virus.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 02:13:47 PM
So your position is anyone with possible covid-19 symptoms needs to seek testing?

Here are the current CDC recs:
Sure sounds like EVERYONE demonstrating symptoms doesn't NEED to be tested

Yes, that is my position.  It will save lives, and that is what we should be prioritizing.  You start with people who have had close contact with those who are infected and then you test people who have been where the infected have been, then you test the people who have had contact with those folks.  It is an outward spiral that forms a net that finds out who has it, and how and where it is transmitted.  Cast a wide net, catch a lot of fish.  What is the reason to not test everyone?  Cost?  I get that there is a lack of test kits, but that should be resolved quickly.  I also imagine that China would be willing to send the US and others kits as soon as they can produce them.

The CDC can kick rocks.  They're telling people to not wear masks despite SK's advice that it helps.  Their response to this appears to be very inadequate on the surface as well.  Hopefully, they have a better plan than, 'wait and see'.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 10, 2020, 02:21:21 PM
I have three coworkers within a couple feet with kids under 5, and two that are older plus two older parents both with asthma. My concern is infecting them, if I get it I'd be scared a bit (shortness of breath freaks me out) but the huge concern would be spreading it. Thus I'd like to know if I have it rather than fight it with chicken soup and a humidifier.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TallTitan34 on March 10, 2020, 03:09:04 PM
The CDC can kick rocks.  They're telling people to not wear masks despite SK's advice that it helps.

Or how about you leave the masks to the people who actually need them.  Healthcare workers and people who are sick.

I picture you walking around with three masks layered on each other.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 10, 2020, 03:13:09 PM
What is the reason to not test everyone? 

Panic?  General misunderstanding of Covid-19?  Hoarding?  President Biden? 

Sure, all of that's happening already. 

Imagine what would happen if 50 million people - most without symptoms - happened to test positive... Mass panic?  Breakdown of rational thought/discourse?  Nationwide shortages of basic human needs?  President Pelosi (by line-of-succession)?

FFS, Hards... you're barely still on the rails as it is.  I really don't want to see you - or anyone, for that matter - on WMTV news with Molotov cocktails in tow.



If you are going full tin-foil... here's an excellent reason not to test: Because the faster we can expose all Americans, the faster we can build up an immunity that's effective against all strains of Covid-19 strain before the virus mutates into something much more lethal, which is what the Wuhan bioweapons lab originally intended before one of their researchers didn't properly go through de-con protocol before running out to the market to pick-up the celebratory bat-wing stew for the office lunch party.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: #UnleashSean on March 10, 2020, 03:18:49 PM


The CDC can kick rocks.  They're telling people to not wear masks despite SK's advice that it helps.  Their response to this appears to be very inadequate on the surface as well.  Hopefully, they have a better plan than, 'wait and see'.

Masks will stop you from SPREADING. Masks will do nothing to stop you from RECEIVING.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: The Lens on March 10, 2020, 03:25:52 PM
Marquette cancels all University-sponsored events during BET in NY.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jficke13 on March 10, 2020, 03:30:38 PM
Panic?  General misunderstanding of Covid-19?  Hoarding?  President Biden? 

Sure, all of that's happening already. 

Imagine what would happen if 50 million people - most without symptoms - happened to test positive... Mass panic?  Breakdown of rational thought/discourse?  Nationwide shortages of basic human needs?  President Pelosi (by line-of-succession)?

FFS, Hards... you're barely still on the rails as it is.  I really don't want to see you - or anyone, for that matter - on WMTV news with Molotov cocktails in tow.



If you are going full tin-foil... here's an excellent reason not to test: Because the faster we can expose all Americans, the faster we can build up an immunity that's effective against all strains of Covid-19 strain before the virus mutates into something much more lethal, which is what the Wuhan bioweapons lab originally intended before one of their researchers didn't properly go through de-con protocol before running out to the market to pick-up the celebratory bat-wing stew for the office lunch party.

To the extent that at least this part of that post was serious, viral infections tend to mutate to less-lethal forms of the disease, not more.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 03:38:51 PM
Or how about you leave the masks to the people who actually need them.  Healthcare workers and people who are sick.

I picture you walking around with three masks layered on each other.

Lol.  Respirators are not masks.  I think the confusion lies there.  I don't wear either, ever.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 03:39:27 PM
Masks will stop you from SPREADING. Masks will do nothing to stop you from RECEIVING.

I'm very aware.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 03:41:52 PM
Panic?  General misunderstanding of Covid-19?  Hoarding?  President Biden? 

Sure, all of that's happening already. 

Imagine what would happen if 50 million people - most without symptoms - happened to test positive... Mass panic?  Breakdown of rational thought/discourse?  Nationwide shortages of basic human needs?  President Pelosi (by line-of-succession)?

FFS, Hards... you're barely still on the rails as it is.  I really don't want to see you - or anyone, for that matter - on WMTV news with Molotov cocktails in tow.



If you are going full tin-foil... here's an excellent reason not to test: Because the faster we can expose all Americans, the faster we can build up an immunity that's effective against all strains of Covid-19 strain before the virus mutates into something much more lethal, which is what the Wuhan bioweapons lab originally intended before one of their researchers didn't properly go through de-con protocol before running out to the market to pick-up the celebratory bat-wing stew for the office lunch party.

What have I said is til-foily?  You guys act as if I'm hunkered in a bunker.  I'm not.  I've been saying the same things for over a month.  If you guys want to listen to the CDC that's fine.  I'm just telling you what is reported to work in other places, and then questioning why we aren't following what works.  We are still in the denial phase of this.  My guess is reality starts to hit hard by the end of next week.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 10, 2020, 04:02:24 PM
This image was posted by someone in my LinkedIn Network, so if the curve is off on the 'days' delay, I apologize.  This however, is why I think testing is broad testing is not a bad idea.   None of these countries have shown the ability to yet contain the outbreak or protect vulnerable areas (i.e. nursing homes).  Thus far only a few Asian countries have--and it has been aggressive.  So as Eng said earlier--slow it down, allow the health system and medical supply chain to catch up and make it to the months that hopefully present a lower risk of transmission. 

I also cannot think of areas where less info leads to less uncertainty/panic.   

(https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C5622AQFrDOHdYTLwOg/feedshare-shrink_800/0?e=1586995200&v=beta&t=NfIDQ2MAS6y9Bw00CPaqoCNGiaRoFtKdYGqdT15c0mc)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 10, 2020, 04:18:44 PM
Yes, that is my position.  It will save lives, and that is what we should be prioritizing.  You start with people who have had close contact with those who are infected and then you test people who have been where the infected have been, then you test the people who have had contact with those folks.  It is an outward spiral that forms a net that finds out who has it, and how and where it is transmitted.  Cast a wide net, catch a lot of fish.  What is the reason to not test everyone?  Cost?  I get that there is a lack of test kits, but that should be resolved quickly.  I also imagine that China would be willing to send the US and others kits as soon as they can produce them.

The CDC can kick rocks.  They're telling people to not wear masks despite SK's advice that it helps.  Their response to this appears to be very inadequate on the surface as well.  Hopefully, they have a better plan than, 'wait and see'.

I disagree.

If treatment is the same regardless whether a test result is positive or negative, then you don't need the test.

What changes with individual treatment for not at-risk populations? And if they are at-risk, go to the hospital. This is basic medical care/decision-making.

Confused about the "it will save lives" statement.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 04:25:27 PM
I disagree.

If treatment is the same regardless whether a test result is positive or negative, then you don't need the test.

What changes with individual treatment for not at-risk populations? And if they are at-risk, go to the hospital. This is basic medical care/decision-making.

Confused about the "it will save lives" statement.

We don't have the beds to deal with the at-risk people.  You want to slow the infection rate, and you do that by finding out who is sick and isolating them from big gatherings of people so that we slow down the infection rate.  To put it another way, if you were infected and you knew would you go see grandma at the retirement home?  No, at least I hope the answer is no.  If you don't know you're infected, you may just go anyway.  Now, you may not go if you have the sniffles or flu, but you're smarter, you're educated.  There are a lot of stupid Americans out there.  And this doesn't even account for the asymptomatic spread.  If you don't know you are infected, and are showing no symptoms, you can still spread this.

So that is why we should be testing everyone on the outward spiral.  If we just let this spread without information, we will see results like Italy, Iran, or Hubei province. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TallTitan34 on March 10, 2020, 04:35:00 PM
We don't have the beds to deal with the at-risk people.  You want to slow the infection rate, and you do that by finding out who is sick and isolating them from big gatherings of people so that we slow down the infection rate.  To put it another way, if you were infected and you knew would you go see grandma at the retirement home?  No, at least I hope the answer is no.  If you don't know you're infected, you may just go anyway.  Now, you may not go if you have the sniffles or flu, but you're smarter, you're educated.  There are a lot of stupid Americans out there.  And this doesn't even account for the asymptomatic spread.  If you don't know you are infected, and are showing no symptoms, you can still spread this.

So that is why we should be testing everyone on the outward spiral.  If we just let this spread without information, we will see results like Italy, Iran, or Hubei province.

So what if I get tested, don't have it, catch it the next day, and go visit grandma a few days later?

How often do you expect everyone to get tested?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on March 10, 2020, 04:36:21 PM
So what if I get tested, don't have it, catch it the next day, and go visit grandma a few days later?

How often do you expect everyone to get tested?

EvErY sIx HoUrS!
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 10, 2020, 04:38:09 PM
Masks will stop you from SPREADING. Masks will do nothing to stop you from RECEIVING.

Help me out here.   "Expert advice" says the same thing, that masks are for the unwell, to keep their germs in.  Healthy people don't need them.

Then why are health care professionals wearing masks?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TallTitan34 on March 10, 2020, 04:41:13 PM
Help me out here.   "Expert advice" says the same thing, that masks are for the unwell, to keep their germs in.  Healthy people don't need them.

Then why are health care professionals wearing masks?

Because they are extremely close to sick person treating them?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 10, 2020, 04:41:44 PM
This image was posted by someone in my LinkedIn Network, so if the curve is off on the 'days' delay, I apologize.  This however, is why I think testing is broad testing is not a bad idea.   None of these countries have shown the ability to yet contain the outbreak or protect vulnerable areas (i.e. nursing homes).  Thus far only a few Asian countries have--and it has been aggressive.  So as Eng said earlier--slow it down, allow the health system and medical supply chain to catch up and make it to the months that hopefully present a lower risk of transmission. 

I also cannot think of areas where less info leads to less uncertainty/panic.   

(https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C5622AQFrDOHdYTLwOg/feedshare-shrink_800/0?e=1586995200&v=beta&t=NfIDQ2MAS6y9Bw00CPaqoCNGiaRoFtKdYGqdT15c0mc)

The curves are off/misleading because the virus doesn't spread at the same rate and with the same distribution pattern in each city. This is one of those charts that is factually accurate but narratively incomplete/misleading.

And the frame of reference is odd, the US is 11.5 days behind Italy in what capacity. Here is Wisconsin we had our first patient test positive and since fully recover over 5 weeks ago. Yes we have two new patients so it is continuing to spread obviously but what occurred in Italy 10.5 days ago that is occurring in the US now?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 10, 2020, 04:42:53 PM
Because they are extremely close to sick person treating them?

And they know how to use them....Joe and Jane Q Public fiddle with them, touch their face, etc. Healthcare professionals know how to use the equipment appropriately so it will help prevent the receipt of germs.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 10, 2020, 04:43:52 PM
And they know how to use them....Joe and Jane Q Public fiddle with them, touch their face, etc. Healthcare professionals know how to use the equipment appropriately so it will help prevent the receipt of germs.

Also, not all masks are the same
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 04:48:43 PM
So what if I get tested, don't have it, catch it the next day, and go visit grandma a few days later?

How often do you expect everyone to get tested?

Well, results are not instant.  So while you await results, you self quarantine.  If you are alerted that you came into contact with another infected person you test again.

That is what works.  What would be the argument against this?  Price of tests?  Availability of tests?  Both of those problems are easily solved.  What is not easily solved is an overwhelmed health care system.  You can train people to do testing, and analyze tests much faster than you can train doctors and nurses, and produce hospitals and ventilators.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 10, 2020, 04:55:21 PM
Masks will stop you from SPREADING. Masks will do nothing to stop you from RECEIVING.

This is not correct. To work properly for prevention, the masks need to be fitted properly, and N95.  Also, if you're sick, it can help slow the spread, but those infected probably aren't using them correctly either.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TallTitan34 on March 10, 2020, 04:57:32 PM
Well, results are not instant.  So while you await results, you self quarantine.  If you are alerted that you came into contact with another infected person you test again.

Ok so I self quarantine then catch it.  Back to square one.  What if I don't know I came in contact with an infected person?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 05:03:30 PM
Ok so I self quarantine then catch it.  Back to square one.  What if I don't know I came in contact with an infected person?

That is exactly why we test, and find out where people have been in the past.  To establish who may or may not be infected.

Information saves lives.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 10, 2020, 05:05:24 PM
That is exactly why we test, and find out where people have been in the past.  To establish who may or may not be infected.

Information saves lives.

That matters at outbreak, we're past that so its not as critical
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: warriorchick on March 10, 2020, 05:12:04 PM
There is a hot rumor spreading around campus that classes are canceled for the rest of the month.

It is not true (at least as of the time of this post).

If your MU kid tells you he doesn't have to go to class, set them straight.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: #UnleashSean on March 10, 2020, 05:13:36 PM
There is a hot rumor spreading around campus that classes are canceled for the rest of the month.

It is not true (at least as of the time of this post).

If your MU kid tells you he doesn't have to go to class, set them straight.

By the end of the week I'm guessing most colleges will be shut down through spring break.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 10, 2020, 05:13:52 PM
This is interesting .. "quarantine lite" ..

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/new-york-rochelle-coronavirus-containment-zone (https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/new-york-rochelle-coronavirus-containment-zone)

Residents of the area will be allowed to leave and enter the zone, small businesses are expected to remain open, and people will be allowed to move about as they would in a normal day, officials said.


What's the point of that?  Maybe they could make the people wear a scarlet "C" or something.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 10, 2020, 05:16:10 PM
You get tested because employers will pay you to stay home!

https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-coronavirus-leave-policy-kentucky-paid-2020-3

Honestly, I understand the statement "testing doesn't mean much for me", but if you know you have it, you shouldn't go anywhere, and once you feel better, you're supposed to get tested again to be sure your isolation can end.

I don't understand the arguments against testing...
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 05:21:53 PM
That matters at outbreak, we're past that so its not as critical

Explain China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore.

How did they get this under control?

The window narrows every day that we don't implement this sort of solution.  Should have been ramping up the moment that this left China's border.

What is your solution to deal with what is coming?  Let it happen?  Let all the people who are at risk, die?  Bad news, you're talking about letting hundreds of thousands of people die, probably more.  For starters, we have about one million hospital beds available in the US, and 65% of those are occupied with non-Covid19 patients.  Now we look at people with risk factors.  Obesity (99 mllion), kidney disease (30 million), COPD (16 million, low end)... I realize there is plenty of overlap in those numbers, but you get my point.  And no, I'm not saying they're all going to die.  But if we say 60% of the obese population contracts this, and we say only 5% die, we are still talking about just under 3 million people.  You're an engineer (presumably from your name), run the numbers.

What do you suggest?  I'm genuinely curious.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 10, 2020, 05:22:52 PM
Ok so I self quarantine then catch it.  Back to square one.  What if I don't know I came in contact with an infected person?

If you have symptoms, get tested. Otherwise, no. There is no perfect answer.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 05:25:39 PM
Yes, that is my position.  It will save lives, and that is what we should be prioritizing.  You start with people who have had close contact with those who are infected and then you test people who have been where the infected have been, then you test the people who have had contact with those folks.  It is an outward spiral that forms a net that finds out who has it, and how and where it is transmitted.  Cast a wide net, catch a lot of fish.  What is the reason to not test everyone?  Cost?  I get that there is a lack of test kits, but that should be resolved quickly.  I also imagine that China would be willing to send the US and others kits as soon as they can produce them.

The CDC can kick rocks.  They're telling people to not wear masks despite SK's advice that it helps.  Their response to this appears to be very inadequate on the surface as well.  Hopefully, they have a better plan than, 'wait and see'.


Just curious: where did you get your MPH? Or your MD?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 05:30:00 PM
You get tested because employers will pay you to stay home!

https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-coronavirus-leave-policy-kentucky-paid-2020-3

Honestly, I understand the statement "testing doesn't mean much for me", but if you know you have it, you shouldn't go anywhere, and once you feel better, you're supposed to get tested again to be sure your isolation can end.

I don't understand the arguments against testing...


Simple argument against testing: if you are in a demographic group where you will likely have symptoms like a minor flu, and work for a company that already gives paid sick leave, you will recover perfectly well and at lower cost by staying home and doing appropriate self-care.

Lower cost, same outcome. Is that straightforward enough?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 05:32:28 PM

Just curious: where did you get your MPH? Or your MD?

Same place the rest of us did.  Are you checking to see if I played high school basketball?  Maybe you can dunk.  I don't know if that matters. 

You're not required to listen to my advice, and you should absolutely question it.  I'm going from what I've read, and listened to from credible sources.  If you want me to drop more links, I can.  But you can probably tell, I have an extreme interest in this.

FWIW, my degree from Marquette is in Biomedical Science. 

This is interesting .. "quarantine lite" ..

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/new-york-rochelle-coronavirus-containment-zone (https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/new-york-rochelle-coronavirus-containment-zone)

Residents of the area will be allowed to leave and enter the zone, small businesses are expected to remain open, and people will be allowed to move about as they would in a normal day, officials said.


What's the point of that?  Maybe they could make the people wear a scarlet "C" or something.

Test run to check compliance?  My best guess.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 10, 2020, 05:43:48 PM
By the end of the week I'm guessing most colleges will be shut down through spring break.

Just received from Purdue:

"FUTURE CLASSES AND INSTRUCTION: All faculty and staff should move their courses to online or alternative delivery before March 23 and should be prepared to continue as long as in-person instruction seems inadvisable (potentially through the end of the semester). To be clear, the campus will remain open after spring break. However, starting March 23, students must take their courses online...Students in the residence halls have the option of choosing whether to return to campus or not after spring break. Again, we will work to ensure that all students can complete their program of study online or have other accommodations."


Spring break is next week, so this is taking effect after the break. I wonder if my daughter's friend will still come with her, or if she'll head home. I suppose that will likely depend on what we opt to do (i.e., keep her home or let her return).
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 05:45:20 PM

Same place the rest of us did.

FWIW, my degree from Marquette is in Biomedical Science. 


Uh, no. I got my MD from the Medical College of Wisconsin, class of ‘87. I can’t dunk, but I understand epidemiology and disease management, and can read and understand CDC and WHO guidelines.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 10, 2020, 05:50:53 PM
Uh, no. I got my MD from the Medical College of Wisconsin, class of ‘87. I can’t dunk, but I understand epidemiology and disease management, and can read and understand CDC and WHO guidelines.

i think that sound we just heard was hards face plant :-X
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 10, 2020, 05:51:26 PM
It's officially in Milwaukee now

https://www.tmj4.com/news/national/coronavirus/uw-milwaukee-extends-spring-break-prepares-to-suspend-in-person-classes-amid-coronavirus-concerns

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 10, 2020, 05:52:56 PM
Just received from Purdue:

"FUTURE CLASSES AND INSTRUCTION: All faculty and staff should move their courses to online or alternative delivery before March 23 and should be prepared to continue as long as in-person instruction seems inadvisable (potentially through the end of the semester). To be clear, the campus will remain open after spring break. However, starting March 23, students must take their courses online...Students in the residence halls have the option of choosing whether to return to campus or not after spring break. Again, we will work to ensure that all students can complete their program of study online or have other accommodations."


Spring break is next week, so this is taking effect after the break. I wonder if my daughter's friend will still come with her, or if she'll head home. I suppose that will likely depend on what we opt to do (i.e., keep her home or let her return).

All Indiana University campuses are on-line only classes till April
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 05:56:35 PM
i think that sound we just heard was hards face plant :-X

I hate doing that; the fact that most here didn’t know about my degree shows that. But I can’t tolerate a know-it-all who claims to understand something like this better than the experts at CDC and WHO, and who talk down to anyone who doesn’t follow his lead...
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 10, 2020, 06:01:57 PM
I hate doing that; the fact that most here didn’t know about my degree shows that. But I can’t tolerate a know-it-all who claims to understand something like this better than the experts at CDC and WHO, and who talk down to anyone who doesn’t follow his lead...

Clearly he overplayed his hand but to be fair I'd wager the vast majority of this board has Business or Communications degrees so in terms of relevance I'd put his knowledge behind yours and the other Medical professionals on here (Dentists excluded) but a heck of a lot more relevant than the majority of us.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 10, 2020, 06:16:05 PM
https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

https://youtu.be/Q4F2oSQ8CRI

https://youtu.be/qbqQdwvjf7U
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 06:21:51 PM
Uh, no. I got my MD from the Medical College of Wisconsin, class of ‘87. I can’t dunk, but I understand epidemiology and disease management, and can read and understand CDC and WHO guidelines.

I'm pretty sure that was a dunk on my sassy attitude.  Though, I feel like I got set up pretty hard there.  ;D  Does this mean that my opinion counts more than mu03eng?  I'm just checking so I can dunk on him  :P 

As I mentioned earlier, you can take my advice with a grain of salt if you want to.  I'm certainly not an expert.  I, too, understand CDC and WHO guidelines, I just find them to be lacking.  I guess in a week or two, we will see if the guidelines were worth a damn or not.

Do you mind if I ask you what we should do in the face of this?  Follow what the CDC says?  The WHO?  Do you think they're doing an adequate job?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 06:23:05 PM
https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

https://youtu.be/Q4F2oSQ8CRI

https://youtu.be/qbqQdwvjf7U

I watched the first 15 minutes of that earlier.  I don't like Rogan, overall, but the guy he has on is an expert, without a doubt.  Highly credentialed, and well known.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 06:26:34 PM
I hate doing that; the fact that most here didn’t know about my degree shows that. But I can’t tolerate a know-it-all who claims to understand something like this better than the experts at CDC and WHO, and who talk down to anyone who doesn’t follow his lead...

Refute what I'm saying.  The WHO refusing to call this a pandemic degrades their credibility.  They were afraid of upsetting China from the beginning of this, and that's why they're still dragging their feet on calling this what it is.

https://www.cfr.org/blog/who-and-china-dereliction-duty
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 06:32:12 PM
I'm pretty sure that was a dunk on my sassy attitude.  Though, I feel like I got set up pretty hard there.  ;D  Does this mean that my opinion counts more than mu03eng?  I'm just checking so I can dunk on him  :P 

As I mentioned earlier, you can take my advice with a grain of salt if you want to.  I'm certainly not an expert.  I, too, understand CDC and WHO guidelines, I just find them to be lacking.  I guess in a week or two, we will see if the guidelines were worth a damn or not.

Do you mind if I ask you what we should do in the face of this?  Follow what the CDC says?  The WHO?  Do you think they're doing an adequate job?

I think the CDC does an excellent job, because it makes its recommendations based on both hard science and pragmatic considerations like cost/benefit ratios and such. That doesn’t mean they can’t be debated, but IMHO it’s reasonable to consider CDC right until convincingly proven otherwise.

And to be sure, they may change their recommendations as this goes on and their knowledge base expands. To me, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are wrong now; it may simply mean they have new data on which to make recommendations.

As for the WHO’s refusal to call this a pandemic, I am at a loss. Like I said, to me CDC is the gold standard.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 06:35:40 PM
I think the CDC does an excellent job, because it makes its recommendations based on both hard science and pragmatic considerations like cost/benefit ratios and such. That doesn’t mean they can’t be debated, but IMHO it’s reasonable to consider CDC right until convincingly proven otherwise.

And to be sure, they may change their recommendations as this goes on and their knowledge base expands. To me, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are wrong now; it may simply mean they have new data on which to make recommendations.

I agree, but they seem to have been caught with their pants down here.  We are at almost a month and a half from patient zero in the US.   Hopefully, they've been working to procure essential medical equipment for our HCWs at the very least.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 06:39:41 PM
I agree, but they seem to have been caught with their pants down here.  We are at almost a month and a half from patient zero in the US.   Hopefully, they've been working to procure essential medical equipment for our HCWs at the very least.

To be fair, the current administration has considerably limited the CDC’s ability to be proactive. Still, I believe their current recommendations are appropriate.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 10, 2020, 06:40:33 PM
I’ve spent most of the last two days discussing this. The problem is students going away for Spring Break combined with the two week maximum incubation period. That means students traveling over break can catch something and not present symptoms until after they return. And then the school would have to find ways to quarantine not only the sick student, but their roommates, classmates, etc.

This is why schools are being very cautious. I’m sure Marquette will follow. And I bet by the end of the NCAAs, games are played in front of no crowds. If they are played at all.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Goose on March 10, 2020, 06:42:31 PM
Gooo
Thank you for your posts. As we discussed years ago, you and my wife were at Medical College of Wisconsin at the same time. She has PhD in cellular biology, not MD. Again, appreciate your posts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 10, 2020, 07:23:23 PM

Simple argument against testing: if you are in a demographic group where you will likely have symptoms like a minor flu, and work for a company that already gives paid sick leave, you will recover perfectly well and at lower cost by staying home and doing appropriate self-care.

Lower cost, same outcome. Is that straightforward enough?

Are you talking unlimited paid sick leave? I've got PTO, and I would have to use 5 days of that, and then I can get short term disability (a smaller % of my pay) with a dr's recommendation after that.  I suspect my benefits are better than most Americans, and I'd still need a Covid-19 test to get to your "lower cost" scenario.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 07:39:27 PM
Are you talking unlimited paid sick leave? I've got PTO, and I would have to use 5 days of that, and then I can get short term disability (a smaller % of my pay) with a dr's recommendation after that.  I suspect my benefits are better than most Americans, and I'd still need a Covid-19 test to get to your "lower cost" scenario.

I don’t know how different companies’ benefits work, but yes.

One more argument against testing patients at low-risk for a severe outcome: getting a test might require you to go to a doctor’s office or clinic, or maybe even a hospital, where there may be lots of higher risk people (the elderly, and other people at the clinic or hospital for treatment of their high-risk conditions). So the very act of going to get tested might place high-risk populations at higher risk for exposure.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 07:43:36 PM
I don’t know how different companies’ benefits work, but yes.

One more argument against testing patients at low-risk for a severe outcome: getting a test might require you to go to a doctor’s office or clinic, or maybe even a hospital, where there may be lots of higher risk people (the elderly, and other people at the clinic or hospital for treatment of their high-risk conditions). So the very act of going to get tested might place high-risk populations at higher risk for exposure.

South Korea figured this out.  They had tents, and drive up testing. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUfan12 on March 10, 2020, 07:53:24 PM
It's officially in Milwaukee now

https://www.tmj4.com/news/national/coronavirus/uw-milwaukee-extends-spring-break-prepares-to-suspend-in-person-classes-amid-coronavirus-concerns

Not officially. A person was tested, that's all they announced.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 10, 2020, 08:00:20 PM
I hate doing that; the fact that most here didn’t know about my degree shows that. But I can’t tolerate a know-it-all who claims to understand something like this better than the experts at CDC and WHO, and who talk down to anyone who doesn’t follow his lead...

  the fact that most here didn't know about your degree is a testament to your character GM.  you didn't pull the "doctor card" until you were absolutely forced to 8-) 8-)  thank you for your input!

   back to the topic at hand, i just listened to an interview with dr ben carson-a lot of excellent, level headed information.  the golden nugget was a study he cited from his school/hospital, johns hopkins, was that one can be a carrier of said virus for 5.1 days on average before exhibiting any signs/symptoms.  that is one of the main reasons we all should follow(always) safe hygiene practices.  he further stated if people realized the morbidity and the fatality rate of coronavirus vs influenza, people would be "running down the streets"
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 08:01:19 PM
South Korea figured this out.  They had tents, and drive up testing.

Yes, but the last I heard, it was only in one city (Seoul), and the total number of people tested was still relatively small compared to the total tested. (I may be wrong about part of that; just my recollection).

More importantly here in the US, it’s possible that the restrictions in public health funding by the current administration could prevent extensive drive-through testing on a nationwide basis. Maybe we couldn’t even do it with previous funding levels, as it would require facilities we don’t have, while clinics and hospitals are already there and equipped for testing.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 10, 2020, 08:02:39 PM
Not officially. A person was tested, that's all they announced.

My bad that's what I get for not opening a link I get texted
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 10, 2020, 08:05:54 PM
More importantly here in the US, it’s possible that the restrictions in public health funding by the current administration could prevent extensive drive-through testing on a nationwide basis. Maybe we couldn’t even do it with previous funding levels, as it would require facilities we don’t have, while clinics and hospitals are already there and equipped for testing.

 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-news-coronavirus-test-hospitals-20200309-lb54zvss6var7j7p4bfnphg4fe-story.html%3foutputType=amp (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-news-coronavirus-test-hospitals-20200309-lb54zvss6var7j7p4bfnphg4fe-story.html%3foutputType=amp)

CT is at least thinking about it. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 08:12:05 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-news-coronavirus-test-hospitals-20200309-lb54zvss6var7j7p4bfnphg4fe-story.html%3foutputType=amp (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-news-coronavirus-test-hospitals-20200309-lb54zvss6var7j7p4bfnphg4fe-story.html%3foutputType=amp)

CT is at least thinking about it.


If this can be done and replicated on a widespread and cost-effective basis, it might change the recommendations for testing low-risk people with symptoms. Still though, even if it works in CT, it would require a big logistical step to make it a coordinated nationwide effort.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 10, 2020, 08:19:00 PM
CT is at least thinking about it.

CO is doing it, but requires a Dr.s note (presumably that note can be emailed after a chat?)

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/colorado-governor-declares-state-of-emergency-to-increase-covid-19-testing-implement-paid-sick-leave
Quote
The state lab in Lowry will open a drive-up facility on Wednesday, Polis said, where people can go to be tested if they have a note from their doctor. And the governor said the state was preparing more safe-testing locations, including the prioritization of putting up a testing facility in the High Country to prevent the spread of the virus in mountain communities that have already seen multiple cases.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 10, 2020, 08:22:00 PM
Another point regarding testing...

Let's say you make this mandatory. Or suggest everyone do it. And everyone who tests positive has to be quarantined 2 weeks (minimum, I'm guessing).

As we know, not everyone has paid time off. Or sick leave, even. Or savings to cover day to day/monthly expenses.

Think those people are gonna show up for testing knowing they're going to risk their jobs or paychecks? Ya right
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 10, 2020, 08:27:25 PM
Another point regarding testing...

Let's say you make this mandatory. Or suggest everyone do it. And everyone who tests positive has to be quarantined 2 weeks (minimum, I'm guessing).

As we know, not everyone has paid time off. Or sick leave, even. Or savings to cover day to day/monthly expenses.

Think those people are gonna show up for testing knowing they're going to risk their jobs or paychecks? Ya right

I think people want to do the right thing by nature.  If I were president, I would put all the stimulus on paying sick people to not leave their house.  Improving volunteering to testing and eventually a return to normal/confidence in being out in the world. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 10, 2020, 08:30:29 PM
As we know, not everyone has paid time off. Or sick leave, even. Or savings to cover day to day/monthly expenses.

Think those people are gonna show up for testing knowing they're going to risk their jobs or paychecks? Ya right

I don't disagree, but it feels like digging for reasons not to test.  CO governor  pushing to required paid sick leave for certain industries (food, childcare, health care, education and hospitality industries )
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 08:33:32 PM
One other point about quickly setting up a drive-through system: when you quickly take a process out of its usual environment, you raise the risk for errors. We already know that samples occasionally get mishandled, contaminated or mislabeled in the normal clinic and hospital environment. It is quite possible that a hastily designed drive-through system would increase the error rate.

So there’s the cost, but also the quality challenge due to a quick change in logistics.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 10, 2020, 09:02:26 PM
One other point about quickly setting up a drive-through system: when you quickly take a process out of its usual environment, you raise the risk for errors. We already know that samples occasionally get mishandled, contaminated or mislabeled in the normal clinic and hospital environment. It is quite possible that a hastily designed drive-through system would increase the error rate.

So there’s the cost, but also the quality challenge due to a quick change in logistics.

I mean we're talking about collections here, not testing and results.  Just drive up, get swabbed, and you're out.  Samples get moved to a testing lab.  I don't see this being difficult.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 10, 2020, 09:23:26 PM
Iran is a nightmare...

https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-coronavirus-dozens-die-bootleg-alcohol-poisoning
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 10, 2020, 09:25:58 PM
Iran is a nightmare...

I mean, I don't think COVID-19 moved the needle much there...
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 09:29:36 PM
I mean we're talking about collections here, not testing and results.  Just drive up, get swabbed, and you're out.  Samples get moved to a testing lab.  I don't see this being difficult.

Yes, but in the process of collecting and labeling samples, mistakes are made. In the normal clinic and hospital environments. Every day.

If you quickly move that process to a new environment, the rate of errors will almost certainly increase. How much is anyone’s guess.

It may or may not be a hard stop by itself, but in any case it’s a very real factor to consider while considering additional considerations like cost and such.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 10, 2020, 09:42:02 PM
It may or may not be a hard stop by itself, but in any case it’s a very real factor to consider while considering additional considerations like cost and such.

You've mentioned cost and the financial side a few times.  Thousands of dead would appear to be the bigger cost - both emotionally and financially - though may help SS and Medicaid/medicare #s.  Or perhaps you've already written them off (no hope).  Curious why else you seem to indicate cost and finances are a reason to not do testing.  You claim is it's cheaper not to test?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 10, 2020, 09:51:23 PM
Explain China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore.

How did they get this under control?

The window narrows every day that we don't implement this sort of solution.  Should have been ramping up the moment that this left China's border.

What is your solution to deal with what is coming?  Let it happen?  Let all the people who are at risk, die?  Bad news, you're talking about letting hundreds of thousands of people die, probably more.  For starters, we have about one million hospital beds available in the US, and 65% of those are occupied with non-Covid19 patients.  Now we look at people with risk factors.  Obesity (99 mllion), kidney disease (30 million), COPD (16 million, low end)... I realize there is plenty of overlap in those numbers, but you get my point.  And no, I'm not saying they're all going to die.  But if we say 60% of the obese population contracts this, and we say only 5% die, we are still talking about just under 3 million people.  You're an engineer (presumably from your name), run the numbers.

What do you suggest?  I'm genuinely curious.

They went into full lock down, that approach can absolutely works(until rounds 2, 3, 4.... come around again). I'm extremely sceptical that we could execute such a plan in the US and that it's actually necessary.

We need to lower the infection curve but I don't think we need anything drastic to do that. Wash hands, if you feel unwell stay home, and if you are higher risk stay home as much as practical. We can

It is inevitable this virus will spread and it will kill, tragic but death is a part of life. I don't say this casually as my parents are high risk, my sons godfather is 42 and has Cystic fibrosis, and I have a 4 year old and a 9 month old. We aren't going to stop it and we aren't going to take mortality rate to zero. We try to limit the damage and slow the curve but given the current understanding of the virus it is no time to hit the panic button as some seem to advocate.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 09:54:57 PM
You've mentioned cost and the financial side a few times.  Thousands of dead would appear to be the bigger cost - both emotionally and financially - though may help SS and Medicaid/medicare #s.  Or perhaps you've already written them off (no hope).  Curious why else you seem to indicate cost and finances are a reason to not do testing.  You claim is it's cheaper not to test?

If low-risk symptomatic people follow the CDC guidelines and self-quarantine, it won’t cause additional deaths. In fact, as I said above, keeping them away from clinics and hospitals full of higher-risk people might save lives.

And it would be cheaper.

Spending more money doesn’t always lead to a better outcome.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 10, 2020, 10:02:09 PM
If low-risk symptomatic people follow the CDC guidelines and self-quarantine, it won’t cause additional deaths. In fact, as I said above, keeping them away from clinics and hospitals full of higher-risk people might save lives.

Ah. I think I understand, and see the difference in our thinking - which isn't that far apart. 

I think most people will press on and do their jobs/go to social gatherings *while* being sick (or "not that sick" as they might determine) unless we make testing super easy and free.  It's the American way.  You don't let a simple fever or cough stop you from being successful!

You think higher of the US public than I do.  That's all.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 10:19:08 PM
Ah. I think I understand, and see the difference in our thinking - which isn't that far apart. 

I think most people will press on and do their jobs/go to social gatherings *while* being sick (or "not that sick" as they might determine) unless we make testing super easy and free.  It's the American way.  You don't let a simple fever or cough stop you from being successful!

You think higher of the US public than I do.  That's all.


Perhaps I do. But if people won’t voluntarily self-quarantine, I don’t see huge numbers getting a test that might lead to a forced quarantine. Like you said:  the American way is not to let a fever and cough prevent people from doing whatever the hell they want to do.

Anyway, we can agree to disagree. But my position has been, and will likely continue to be, that people should follow the CDC recommendations.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 10, 2020, 10:30:08 PM
Anyway, we can agree to disagree.

But, we don't have to.  I think we 100% agree.

people should follow the CDC recommendations.

100% agree.  That would help a bunch.

I don’t see huge numbers getting a test that might lead to a forced quarantine.

100% agree.  Which is why we should eat as much Arbys as possible before they go bankrupt.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 10:34:45 PM

100% agree.  Which is why we should eat as much Arbys as possible before they go bankrupt.


Just for my edification, what are the six steps from Arby’s to Kevin Bacon?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 10, 2020, 10:41:16 PM
You think higher of the US public than I do.  That's all.

Well of course everyone is less high than you.  Literally. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 10, 2020, 11:08:27 PM
One other point about quickly setting up a drive-through system: when you quickly take a process out of its usual environment, you raise the risk for errors. We already know that samples occasionally get mishandled, contaminated or mislabeled in the normal clinic and hospital environment. It is quite possible that a hastily designed drive-through system would increase the error rate.

So there’s the cost, but also the quality challenge due to a quick change in logistics.

These are pretty simple experiments. Most biochemistry labs in the US can easily run these assays, and can do them with far higher accuracy and throughput than many of the official labs.

It would be no problem whatsoever to set up drive through testing, with high accuracy and higher throughput. The problem is the US has regulations on who can do clinical testing and who can report clinical results. That is the barrier, regulations, not any logistical issues or accuracy.

Also, these regular biochemistry labs could run these samples for on the order of around $15-20 a sample, not the over $2k that they are currently charging people
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 10, 2020, 11:15:51 PM
Just for my edification, what are the six steps from Arby’s to Kevin Bacon?

Only 2 steps required for Arbys.  Ving Rhames is the voice of Arbys, he was in Dave with Faith Prince who was in Picture Perfect with...well...you know who.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 11:16:02 PM
These are pretty simple experiments. Most biochemistry labs in the US can easily run these assays, and can do them with far higher accuracy and throughput than many of the official labs.

It would be no problem whatsoever to set up drive through testing, with high accuracy and higher throughput. The problem is the US has regulations on who can do clinical testing and who can report clinical results. That is the barrier, regulations, not any logistical issues or accuracy.


You are right about the complexities at the interface between clinical and research testing (I have had head-scratching conversations with FDA about that exact topic)...but that isn’t what I’m talking about.

I’m talking about simple, straightforward purely clinical testing. Even in that relatively straightforward setting, errors are made in the handling and labeling of specimens. They aren’t frequent, but they happen. If you add new logistical processes to the mix, the error rate is bound to go up. So I disagree with your comment that there aren’t problems in terms of logistics or accurate reporting. There are.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 10, 2020, 11:34:14 PM
Hah, this is rich, now china can blame everyone else...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/chinas-new-coronavirus-cases-rise-on-infections-from-abroad-idUSKBN20Y03W
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 10, 2020, 11:39:46 PM

You are right about the complexities at the interface between clinical and research testing (I have had head-scratching conversations with FDA about that exact topic)...but that isn’t what I’m talking about.

I’m talking about simple, straightforward purely clinical testing. Even in that relatively straightforward setting, errors are made in the handling and labeling of specimens. They aren’t frequent, but they happen. If you add new logistical processes to the mix, the error rate is bound to go up. So I disagree with your comment that there aren’t problems in terms of logistics or accurate reporting. There are.

The problems with handling labeling etc., are largely from many hands being involved in collecting, labeling, transporting, preparing, and then testing the samples.

The drive through, high-throughput system would limit that. It would have a person collecting samples, providing them to the person who prepares and tests on site. It would be vastly faster, and since it has fewer hands in the mix, would have far less errors.

We are doing this in the most moronic, cumbersome, and inefficient way nearly imaginable.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 10, 2020, 11:43:49 PM
The problems with handling labeling etc., are largely from many hands being involved in collecting, labeling, transporting, preparing, and then testing the samples.

The drive through, high-throughput system would limit that. It would have a person collecting samples, providing them to the person who prepares and tests on site. It would be vastly faster, and since it has fewer hands in the mix, would have far less errors.

We are doing this in the most moronic, cumbersome, and inefficient way nearly imaginable.

You are overstating the feasibility and simplicity of doing PCR-based testing in the field with a near-zero error rate. You will become a very rich man if you can actually bring that to pass.

Godspeed.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 10, 2020, 11:48:07 PM
You are overstating the feasibility and simplicity of doing PCR-based testing in the field with a near-zero error rate. You will become a very rich man if you can actually bring that to pass.

Godspeed.

I do this. Including having worked on field-based PCR on a chip for rapid detection of pathogens at sea.

It's not complicated or difficult. In fact, there are multiple industries that intentionally do field-based studies to avoid errors, and problems due to transportation and samples changing hands.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 11, 2020, 12:05:45 AM
You are overstating the feasibility and simplicity of doing PCR-based testing in the field with a near-zero error rate. You will become a very rich man if you can actually bring that to pass.

Godspeed.

So things are hard so we should not do them because we might make a mistake?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/drive-thru-coronavirus-testing-facility-us-seattle-washington/
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 11, 2020, 12:08:01 AM
They went into full lock down, that approach can absolutely works(until rounds 2, 3, 4.... come around again). I'm extremely sceptical that we could execute such a plan in the US and that it's actually necessary.

We need to lower the infection curve but I don't think we need anything drastic to do that. Wash hands, if you feel unwell stay home, and if you are higher risk stay home as much as practical. We can

It is inevitable this virus will spread and it will kill, tragic but death is a part of life. I don't say this casually as my parents are high risk, my sons godfather is 42 and has Cystic fibrosis, and I have a 4 year old and a 9 month old. We aren't going to stop it and we aren't going to take mortality rate to zero. We try to limit the damage and slow the curve but given the current understanding of the virus it is no time to hit the panic button as some seem to advocate.

China went into lockdown.  South Korea did not.  I don't remember hearing Tokyo or anything about Japan reaching a total lockdown.  Though, to be fair, we haven't heard much out of Japan in a while anyway.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 11, 2020, 12:13:13 AM
I do this quit regularly.

The in-lab part, or the logistical part of setting up large-scale systems for accurate collection, handling, labeling, transporting and reporting of results? Two very different animals, and in my experience the in-lab people routinely underestimate the complexity and potential error rates in the latter.

If you have a solution beyond the in-lab part, then by all means go ahead and show the rest of the medical community how it’s done easily, on-site and with a low error rate.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 11, 2020, 12:15:59 AM
So things are hard so we should not do them because we might make a mistake?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/drive-thru-coronavirus-testing-facility-us-seattle-washington/

There’s a huge difference between a few facilities where there’s already a huge problem vs thousands of facilities in an enormous country. And that’s in terms of costs, compliance and error rates.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 11, 2020, 12:28:56 AM
The in-lab part, or the logistical part of setting up large-scale systems for accurate collection, handling, labeling, transporting and reporting of results? Two very different animals, and in my experience the in-lab people routinely underestimate the complexity and potential error rates in the latter.

If you have a solution beyond the in-lab part, then by all means go ahead and show the rest of the medical community how it’s done easily, on-site and with a low error rate.

Quite frankly, the medical community does not want things to change. They profit dramatically from the red-tape and hurdles.

Also, the MD's greatly overestimate the complexity of routine tests and the logistics of handling large numbers of samples and large sets of data. This in part stems from medical testing facilities often hiring poorly skilled technicians that don't care about their job.

There is no reason that even a small facility couldn't be running 5-10k tests a day. At that scale you could run these for $2 a sample, including labor for a highly skilled PhD level research technicians.

We haven't ran 10k tests nationwide yet.

We are going to have to agree to disagree on the feasibility of large scale testing and drive through facilities.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 11, 2020, 12:38:32 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html#click=https://t.co/mlEjBJl96Q
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 11, 2020, 12:48:34 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html#click=https://t.co/mlEjBJl96Q

Her lab probably tested close to as many samples as the rest of the nation, up until this week. Great story.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 11, 2020, 06:31:43 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html#click=https://t.co/mlEjBJl96Q


That is a great story about what I agree was a big miss. Notably, it occurred where many lab-related regulatory blunders occur: the interface between research and clinical labs.

Regrettable.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: #UnleashSean on March 11, 2020, 07:03:28 AM
Uwm will be extending their spring break another week. Marquette will probably follow by tomorrow.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Let's Go Warriors on March 11, 2020, 07:19:45 AM
There is almost 0 possibility that there are no cases in Milwaukee right now.  Its just a matter of getting the people tested at this point.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Spaniel with a Short Tail on March 11, 2020, 07:51:46 AM
In 1 hour, our flight to NYC and the BET will depart without us on it. Too much concern over being quarantined in NYC for 14 days because we came in contact with someone who tested positive. Much less concern over actually contracting covid (we're close to the at risk age group). I must say that AA and Hilton were very understanding and we didn't really lose much for our last minute decision.

Thanks to everyone for their contributions to this thread (despite the usual Scoop sidetracking).
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 11, 2020, 08:01:42 AM
One note, I want to say I'm ambivalent on the wide spread testing as I'm not sure how much positive it actually does but if the scientists/doctors say we should do more I'm all for it. However, we have to get better about reporting on test results. It's a true or false result but almost more important is if true, where on the incubation spectrum are you, etc. Reports are breathless with "11 more cases today, or 6 more positive tests today", etc. This portrayal of infections just popping up out of nowhere is adding to a lot of unnecessary panic
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: shoothoops on March 11, 2020, 08:04:38 AM
This is how the Coronavirus spread among 70 people at the Biogen conference in Boston.

https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1237710962326732800?s=19
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 11, 2020, 08:15:24 AM
All Indiana University campuses are on-line only classes till April

My kid is home on spring break from Xavier now and got the note that classes are online until April 14 after Easter break.  They can go back to the dorms after spring break but was highly recommended they stay home.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on March 11, 2020, 08:17:42 AM
This is how the Coronavirus spread among 70 people at the Biogen conference in Boston.

https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1237710962326732800?s=19

Somehow I must have missed this previously, but after reading this article - it would seem pretty clear that covid-19 can spread from a person not currently exhibiting symptoms, yes?  Its hard to believe that all of the people that got sick at that conference caught the virus from someone exhibiting symptoms.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 11, 2020, 08:18:22 AM
This is how the Coronavirus spread among 70 people at the Biogen conference in Boston.

https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1237710962326732800?s=19

That's an interesting article. 

This seems to spread easier than 'flu' from an uneducated eye.  Has there been any research put out yet on this?  Is it just that more people are inoculated to flu and it has a harder time spreading?

edit: i guess this article kind of answers my question.  https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/09/people-shed-high-levels-of-coronavirus-study-finds-but-most-are-likely-not-infectious-after-recovery-begins/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/09/people-shed-high-levels-of-coronavirus-study-finds-but-most-are-likely-not-infectious-after-recovery-begins/)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 11, 2020, 08:21:18 AM
And......Georgetown moves to "virtual learning" until further notice.


"We are moving all class room instruction for all of our schools to virtual learning environments. Beginning Monday, March 16th, we are suspending all in-person, face-to-face, on-campus classroom instruction. This will continue until further notice...We strongly encourage all undergraduate students to return to their permanent addresses while this virtual learning environment is in place. Students should avoid returning to campus if possible or return to campus briefly to gather necessary items for the completion of academic work before departing to their permanent addresses. We understand that for some number of students there will be a compelling reason to remain on campus. Campus will be open and key services will be available."


They're all falling like dominoes now. Marquette won't be far behind. I'm sure the pressure is immense. Nobody wants to be accused of not doing enough...especially when everyone else is acting.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 11, 2020, 08:25:28 AM
And......Georgetown moves to "virtual learning" until further notice.


"We are moving all class room instruction for all of our schools to virtual learning environments. Beginning Monday, March 16th, we are suspending all in-person, face-to-face, on-campus classroom instruction. This will continue until further notice...We strongly encourage all undergraduate students to return to their permanent addresses while this virtual learning environment is in place. Students should avoid returning to campus if possible or return to campus briefly to gather necessary items for the completion of academic work before departing to their permanent addresses. We understand that for some number of students there will be a compelling reason to remain on campus. Campus will be open and key services will be available."


They're all falling like dominoes now. Marquette won't be far behind. I'm sure the pressure is immense. Nobody wants to be accused of not doing enough...especially when everyone else is acting.


It's not only that, but once you realize your responsibilities to the community should someone become sick, it becomes very hard for a campus to manage the problem with thousands of students on site.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: injuryBug on March 11, 2020, 08:41:03 AM
I do not really get what a complete lockdown will do besides put off the inevitable? People are going to get covid19 that is a fact.  So if I hide in my house for 6 weeks it will still be around when I come back out unless the entire world goes into lockdown. Those that are high risk should get moved to the front of the line for treatment.  I think of my parents and my father in law.  How on earth can they avoid it?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 11, 2020, 08:52:03 AM
I do not really get what a complete lockdown will do besides put off the inevitable? People are going to get covid19 that is a fact.  So if I hide in my house for 6 weeks it will still be around when I come back out unless the entire world goes into lockdown. Those that are high risk should get moved to the front of the line for treatment.  I think of my parents and my father in law.  How on earth can they avoid it?

Lockdowns prevent community spread.  The slow down the rate at which people become infected.  That is key to not having our healthcare system overwhelmed.  If it becomes overwhelmed, we get to make the hard decisions that Italy is currently facing, and that China most certainly faced.  When there is only so much medical equipment, beds, and staff who lives and who dies becomes a decision that no one wants to make.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on March 11, 2020, 08:55:46 AM
I do not really get what a complete lockdown will do besides put off the inevitable? People are going to get covid19 that is a fact.  So if I hide in my house for 6 weeks it will still be around when I come back out unless the entire world goes into lockdown. Those that are high risk should get moved to the front of the line for treatment.  I think of my parents and my father in law.  How on earth can they avoid it?

https://twitter.com/JeremyKonyndyk/status/1237609912412196865 (https://twitter.com/JeremyKonyndyk/status/1237609912412196865)

"The core objective... is slowing spread enough to buy time for hospitals to stay on top of critical cases.  Need a multi-track strategy to suppress outbreak while expanding clinical bandwith to treat.  That's the ballgame."
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 11, 2020, 08:58:14 AM
Lockdowns prevent community spread.  The slow down the rate at which people become infected.  That is key to not having our healthcare system overwhelmed.  If it becomes overwhelmed, we get to make the hard decisions that Italy is currently facing, and that China most certainly faced.  When there is only so much medical equipment, beds, and staff who lives and who dies becomes a decision that no one wants to make.

It worked in China, where infections have almost ceased. They may have beaten it, not just slowed it.

It'll be interesting if it pops back up there, and/or if other countries can replicate that type of authoritarian restrictions.

If other countries can replicate it, this can be beaten without millions of infections.

But if it keeps popping back up, and some point one has to ask, how long can we quarantine entire countries, and at what cost?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUBurrow on March 11, 2020, 09:10:36 AM
But if it keeps popping back up, and some point one has to ask, how long can we quarantine entire countries, and at what cost?

I think the goal here would be get to summer, when infection rates for this type of thing naturally slow, and hopefully use that time to bolster our healthcare capacity to adjust to a new, covid-19 reality.  But I'm sure others are much more knowledgeable about this endgame than me.

We've been peppering this thread with potential "new post covid-19 panic" implications, and maybe here's another one - an increase in medical care capacity that honestly was probably increasingly necessary as the boomers aged anyway.  If we boost our medical care infrastructure in a way that sticks, and we adjust to the boomers' health care needs by increasing supply more, and just trying to manage demand less, that's probably a silver lining from this.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 11, 2020, 09:10:47 AM

It is inevitable this virus will spread and it will kill, tragic but death is a part of life. I don't say this casually as my parents are high risk, my sons godfather is 42 and has Cystic fibrosis, and I have a 4 year old and a 9 month old. We aren't going to stop it and we aren't going to take mortality rate to zero. We try to limit the damage and slow the curve but given the current understanding of the virus it is no time to hit the panic button as some seem to advocate.

I have a 2 month old. Silver lining is that right now all signs point to our kids being very low risk.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 11, 2020, 09:19:11 AM
Also, no one is seriously suggesting a lock down. 

Limit your travel and large group events.  But go to work.  Go to the store.  Go out to eat. 

And I know that eliminating travel and events isn't always possible, and that's OK.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 11, 2020, 09:31:26 AM
I think the goal here would be get to summer, when infection rates for this type of thing naturally slow, and hopefully use that time to bolster our healthcare capacity to adjust to a new, covid-19 reality.  But I'm sure others are much more knowledgeable about this endgame than me.

We've been peppering this thread with potential "new post covid-19 panic" implications, and maybe here's another one - an increase in medical care capacity that honestly was probably increasingly necessary as the boomers aged anyway.  If we boost our medical care infrastructure in a way that sticks, and we adjust to the boomers' health care needs by increasing supply more, and just trying to manage demand less, that's probably a silver lining from this.

There isn't any evidence warmer temperatures and higher humidity have an impact on this virus.  Plenty of warm, humid places faced this head on.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Eldon on March 11, 2020, 09:40:00 AM
Quite frankly, the medical community does not want things to change. They profit dramatically from the red-tape and hurdles.

Also, the MD's greatly overestimate the complexity of routine tests and the logistics of handling large numbers of samples and large sets of data. This in part stems from medical testing facilities often hiring poorly skilled technicians that don't care about their job.

There is no reason that even a small facility couldn't be running 5-10k tests a day. At that scale you could run these for $2 a sample, including labor for a highly skilled PhD level research technicians.

We haven't ran 10k tests nationwide yet.

We are going to have to agree to disagree on the feasibility of large scale testing and drive through facilities.

Just curious: where did you get your MD or MPH?

I'm kidding/making a point.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 11, 2020, 09:42:33 AM
Lockdowns prevent community spread.  The slow down the rate at which people become infected.  That is key to not having our healthcare system overwhelmed.  If it becomes overwhelmed, we get to make the hard decisions that Italy is currently facing, and that China most certainly faced.  When there is only so much medical equipment, beds, and staff who lives and who dies becomes a decision that no one wants to make.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 11, 2020, 09:44:34 AM
There isn't any evidence warmer temperatures and higher humidity have an impact on this virus.  Plenty of warm, humid places faced this head on.

It's not temp/humidity, it's the communal behavior... people are mostly indoors during the winter months and thus, person-to-person contact increases significantly.  Climate is not as much of a factor in places like China and Italy where person-to-person contact is elevated all of the time.

In other words, as population density rises, climate's effect on person-to-person contact diminishes.  So summer isn't going to help NYC, NJ, SF, etc., but it may slow things down in flyover country.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 11, 2020, 09:48:54 AM
Chicago just cancelled the downtown, south side and northwest side st Patrick's day parades.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 11, 2020, 09:55:19 AM
There isn't any evidence warmer temperatures and higher humidity have an impact on this virus.  Plenty of warm, humid places faced this head on.

Yep.  They've tested the virus .. it can exist on surfaces for 3 days at 98 degrees F.   

That's a lot of days.  Warm temps will help move people outside rather than inside, but .. it's not a magic bullet.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 11, 2020, 09:57:26 AM
Just curious: where did you get your MD or MPH?

I'm kidding/making a point.

Which is?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Bocephys on March 11, 2020, 10:13:28 AM
It's not temp/humidity, it's the communal behavior... people are mostly indoors during the winter months and thus, person-to-person contact increases significantly.  Climate is not as much of a factor in places like China and Italy where person-to-person contact is elevated all of the time.

In other words, as population density rises, climate's effect on person-to-person contact diminishes.  So summer isn't going to help NYC, NJ, SF, etc., but it may slow things down in flyover country.

Shouldn't India's totals be much higher then?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Eldon on March 11, 2020, 10:24:15 AM
Which is?

That you don't need an advanced degree to criticize experts like doctors and the CDC.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Warrior2008 on March 11, 2020, 10:25:19 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

We're passed a point of containment and into mitigation to flatten the curve so to speak.  Government enforced quarantine's will become more common and widespread.  A significant portion of schools, if not most, will be excused.  An expansion of the air travel ban to infected areas(areas of Europe not already included) will most certainly happen. 

Its possible this was unavoidable in a free society, but not having adequate testing available when this popped up removed any doubt about being able to respond to this via a containment strategy.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 11, 2020, 10:39:33 AM
That you don't need an advanced degree to criticize experts like doctors and the CDC.

word.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 11, 2020, 10:56:40 AM
Shouldn't India's totals be much higher then?

Climate's effect is not a correlation; it's a catalyst (or whatever the opposite of a catalyst is).  However, density can be both a correlation and a catalyst... so in the case of India, they might be more susceptible to spread, but the absolute number of cases depends on how deeply the country was "inoculated" to begin with, i.e. how many Indians were exposed, where are they in the country, with how many people did they have contact before diagnosis, etc. 

For example, if you have 5 people who returned to the US from Wuhan and tested positive two weeks later, there's a huge difference between a scenario where all five of these people have been roaming around Cheyenne, WY for the past two weeks as opposed to a scenario where one is roaming NYC, one is roaming LA, one in Houston, one in Atlanta and one in Chicago.


We also have to take into account that all numbers are being underreported to varying degrees, especially if people exhibit mild symptoms or self-treat (and aren't counted).  So if - hypothetically - there was a cultural tendency to not seek care in the areas of India where the virus is widespread, the actual cases may be 5x, 10x, 50x what is being reported currently.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 11, 2020, 11:14:31 AM
Quite frankly, the medical community does not want things to change. They profit dramatically from the red-tape and hurdles.

Also, the MD's greatly overestimate the complexity of routine tests and the logistics of handling large numbers of samples and large sets of data. This in part stems from medical testing facilities often hiring poorly skilled technicians that don't care about their job.

There is no reason that even a small facility couldn't be running 5-10k tests a day. At that scale you could run these for $2 a sample, including labor for a highly skilled PhD level research technicians.

We haven't ran 10k tests nationwide yet.

We are going to have to agree to disagree on the feasibility of large scale testing and drive through facilities.

Ya, we providers LOVE the red tape and hoops we have to jump through to get things approved.  ::)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 11, 2020, 11:15:10 AM
I think the goal here would be get to summer, when infection rates for this type of thing naturally slow, and hopefully use that time to bolster our healthcare capacity to adjust to a new, covid-19 reality.  But I'm sure others are much more knowledgeable about this endgame than me.

We've been peppering this thread with potential "new post covid-19 panic" implications, and maybe here's another one - an increase in medical care capacity that honestly was probably increasingly necessary as the boomers aged anyway.  If we boost our medical care infrastructure in a way that sticks, and we adjust to the boomers' health care needs by increasing supply more, and just trying to manage demand less, that's probably a silver lining from this.

And how are you going to pay for that?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 11, 2020, 11:45:04 AM
Along the lines of other posts wondering about the lasting social/cultural impact of this, I find myself wondering if there will be significant changes in the use and/or acceptance of "virtual learning environments." Obviously, a lot of schools have been increasingly heading that direction, and this certainly accelerates that process. I wonder if this will lead to more wide-spread use even in the normal course of affairs as people become more accustomed to it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: RushmoreAcademy on March 11, 2020, 11:53:03 AM
Along the lines of other posts wondering about the lasting social/cultural impact of this, I find myself wondering if there will be significant changes in the use and/or acceptance of "virtual learning environments." Obviously, a lot of schools have been increasingly heading that direction, and this certainly accelerates that process. I wonder if this will lead to more wide-spread use even in the normal course of affairs as people become more accustomed to it.

Certainly at the university level.  Anything below that is a long, long way off.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 11, 2020, 12:01:22 PM
Chicago just cancelled the downtown, south side and northwest side st Patrick's day parades.

Connecticut postponed or cancelled all St. Patrick's Day parades two days ago.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 11, 2020, 12:02:48 PM
Shouldn't India's totals be much higher then?

I've been wondering about this too?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TSmith34 on March 11, 2020, 12:05:05 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

We're passed a point of containment and into mitigation to flatten the curve so to speak.  Government enforced quarantine's will become more common and widespread.  A significant portion of schools, if not most, will be excused.  An expansion of the air travel ban to infected areas(areas of Europe not already included) will most certainly happen. 

Its possible this was unavoidable in a free society, but not having adequate testing available when this popped up removed any doubt about being able to respond to this via a containment strategy.

10x more lethal than flu. Additionally, permanent lung damage seen in severe cases even where they recover. So...not good, and not comparable to the flu really.  Take care of yourselves, folks.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 11, 2020, 12:12:50 PM
Ya, we providers LOVE the red tape and hoops we have to jump through to get things approved.  ::)

As an actual provider, of course not.  But I'm sure your c-suite absolutely does... it's a huge barrier to entry.

It's like how all the big banks publicly complained about Dodd-Frank while privately congratulating themselves knowing full well that the gov't all but eliminated the threat of new competition, thus paving the way to consolidation and record profits.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ChuckyChip on March 11, 2020, 12:15:04 PM
UW-Madison going online until at least April 10th.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 11, 2020, 12:46:37 PM
Ya, we providers LOVE the red tape and hoops we have to jump through to get things approved.  ::)

For clarification sake, my statement there was not directed at your average provider. More so the medical testing, diagnostics, and Pharma communities that profit greatly from a monopoly on testing, and a high barrier of entry.

Shady providers in some disciplines, also do not want change, they profit greatly from kickbacks from testing labs. This was rampant in the pain management discipline for awhile. I do not believe this is widely spread in the provider market though, most as you note, hate the red tape.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 11, 2020, 12:46:58 PM
10x more lethal than flu. Additionally, permanent lung damage seen in severe cases even where they recover. So...not good, and not comparable to the flu really.  Take care of yourselves, folks.

This is an example of why data fluency is missing in most modern communication. Covid-19 is not definitely 10x more deadly than the flu. It could be but we don't have nearly enough underlying data to know. The numerator(# of deaths) is known but the denominator(# of infected) unknown/under reported. There are lots of indicators that people are contracting the virus and recovering without testing and/or medical intervention.

Look at it this way, there have been ~4000 deaths in ~a month(being very conservative) so at that rate the annual mortality is about 48,000 year whereas flu killed 80,000 last year(to be fair the average is around 60,000 annually). When you factor in this is a new virus in which we need to develop standard interventions and procedures, I have no doubt that covid-19 will kill more(probably a lot more) than the flu but we are reacting as if this is some sort of super bug or cataclysmic event. Maybe it will be but there is definitely not enough evidence to point that way yet. With sometime we will develop standard interventions that will lower the mortality rate. #TrustTheProcess

Bottom line, slow the infection curve and generally speaking if you get the virus you'll be fine, make sure to keep it to yourself if you can.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 11, 2020, 12:52:58 PM
This is an example of why data fluency is missing in most modern communication. Covid-19 is not definitely 10x more deadly than the flu. It could be but we don't have nearly enough underlying data to know. The numerator(# of deaths) is known but the denominator(# of infected) unknown/under reported. There are lots of indicators that people are contracting the virus and recovering without testing and/or medical intervention.

Eng, I hear you on purity of data, etc. 

This wasn't some guy on social though.  He is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and is leading much of the communication for the government.  Long-time bureaucrat across multiple administrations.  He is trying to get folks to do something and making a point that people need to take this seriously.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: warriorchick on March 11, 2020, 01:11:13 PM
Connecticut postponed or cancelled all St. Patrick's Day parades two days ago.

Great idea.  Let's have everyone spend the entire day in completely packed bars instead.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 11, 2020, 01:11:49 PM
This is an example of why data fluency is missing in most modern communication. Covid-19 is not definitely 10x more deadly than the flu. It could be but we don't have nearly enough underlying data to know. The numerator(# of deaths) is known but the denominator(# of infected) unknown/under reported. There are lots of indicators that people are contracting the virus and recovering without testing and/or medical intervention.

Look at it this way, there have been ~4000 deaths in ~a month(being very conservative) so at that rate the annual mortality is about 48,000 year whereas flu killed 80,000 last year(to be fair the average is around 60,000 annually). When you factor in this is a new virus in which we need to develop standard interventions and procedures, I have no doubt that covid-19 will kill more(probably a lot more) than the flu but we are reacting as if this is some sort of super bug or cataclysmic event. Maybe it will be but there is definitely not enough evidence to point that way yet. With sometime we will develop standard interventions that will lower the mortality rate. #TrustTheProcess

Bottom line, slow the infection curve and generally speaking if you get the virus you'll be fine, make sure to keep it to yourself if you can.

I've used the flu comparisons in the past, and I do now appreciate much more how COVID-19 is quite different from the flu in many ways. I understand why some people want to point out that it's an apples to oranges comparison and I agree that in some ways they are absolutely right. However, one of the first arguments many of them make is by comparing the mortality rates.  And, as others have been pointing out, the dearth of data creates some issues. When calculating the death rate for the flu, they model the number of people that they believe had the flu to calculate the rate. They do this because many people don't get tested/confirmed. Obviously, this lowers the death rate considerably from what it would be if they only used confirmed cases. Yet with COVID-19, most data seems to be calculating the death rate using confirmed cases. On the one hand, people are saying, "it's far more widespread than anyone realizes...there aren't enough tests" (note: I'm not disagreeing with either of those propositions), but on the other hand, they're calculating the death rate on the confirmed cases. This raises the rate.

I'm not intending to minimize this. I've come to agree that it is very serious and should be regarded as such. I also agree that it is more lethal than the flu. But it's pretty clear that both "sides" are trying to make their cases based upon pretty incomplete and flawed data.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Warrior2008 on March 11, 2020, 01:15:11 PM
This is an example of why data fluency is missing in most modern communication. Covid-19 is not definitely 10x more deadly than the flu. It could be but we don't have nearly enough underlying data to know. The numerator(# of deaths) is known but the denominator(# of infected) unknown/under reported. There are lots of indicators that people are contracting the virus and recovering without testing and/or medical intervention.

Look at it this way, there have been ~4000 deaths in ~a month(being very conservative) so at that rate the annual mortality is about 48,000 year whereas flu killed 80,000 last year(to be fair the average is around 60,000 annually). When you factor in this is a new virus in which we need to develop standard interventions and procedures, I have no doubt that covid-19 will kill more(probably a lot more) than the flu but we are reacting as if this is some sort of super bug or cataclysmic event. Maybe it will be but there is definitely not enough evidence to point that way yet. With sometime we will develop standard interventions that will lower the mortality rate. #TrustTheProcess

Bottom line, slow the infection curve and generally speaking if you get the virus you'll be fine, make sure to keep it to yourself if you can.

I think we can both agree that the data regarding the annual flu isn't exact science either.  The CDC estimates the number of Americans who contract the flu and they also estimate the number of flu hospitalizations and deaths.  What Dr. Fauci was estimating was the relative danger between covid-19 and the flu based on his clinical judgment using the data that is known(confirmed covid-19 deaths).  And given that he is the foremost opinion in this country regarding infectious diseases, if he says its 10x more deadly than the flu, at the very least you have to respect his judgment.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 11, 2020, 01:26:41 PM
UW-Madison going online until at least April 10th.

UW-Madison, the University of Phoenix of the Midwest
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 11, 2020, 01:29:14 PM
Great idea.  Let's have everyone spend the entire day in completely packed bars instead.

Chick,
Funny you say that.  New Haven Register front page today says that the downtown bars will continue to hold their St. Patrick's Day Parade specials despite no parade.



St. Patrick’s Day parade is off, but parties are on
Drum corps depend on events for revenue
By Ed Stannard

Arnold Gold / Hearst Connecticut Media
A leprechaun in a pot of gold was painted on the front window of Shake Shack on Chapel Street in New Haven on Tuesday. The New Haven St. Patrick’s Day Parade, which would have traveled past this location, has been postponed.

Pat Williams, general manager of Elm City Social, at the restaurant on College Street. The restaurant plans St. Patrick’s Day celebrations, but the parade was postponed.

NEW HAVEN — The Stony Creek Fife & Drum Corps won’t be marching down Chapel Street on Sunday playing “You’re a Grand Old Flag,” but you can still get corned beef poutine at Rudy’s.

The indefinite postponement of the Greater New Haven St. Patrick’s Day parade, out of concern that COVID-19, or corona-virus, may be spread among the thousands lining the parade route, won’t stop the bars and restaurants from offering their versions of Irish-American fare.

At Rudy’s on Chapel and Howe streets that includes gravy fries covered with melted cheese and corned beef. Put corned beef on anything to make it a certifiable American St. Patrick’s Day meal.

“We’re going to stay open. We feel like it’s still going to be a fun day,” said Lange King, a bartender at Rudy’s, who said the beer will begin to flow at 10 a.m. Sunday, with food available at 10:30. There will be giveaways and T-shirts, too.

“It seems like people are still excited to be out and about,” King said, though she expects the bar crowd to be more family-oriented than it might have been with the parade in full swing.

This is America, where, if poutine isn’t your thing, Rudy’s will offer corned beef reuben quesadillas and corned beef hash tacos, mashing flavors and cultures.

At Elm City Social on College Street, just off Chapel, the holiday began on Monday, with their Pub Up. General manager Pat Williams said the bar will become an Irish pub until the big day itself, with Irish whiskey tastings and a class in “how to pour a proper pint” of Guinness stout.

“It’s obviously disappointing; it’s a big day for us, but obviously public health is more important than the festivities,” Williams said about the lack of a parade. “We’re not really concerned. The people that are going out for drinks are still coming out to the bars.”

Irish breakfast is being served all day, as are corned beef sliders. On Monday, Williams will borrow Liam Doherty-Nicholson of the Trinity Bar & Restaurant on Orange Street to be guest bartender.

While the bars are hoping to attract would-be parade-goers, the musical groups that count on parades to raise money can only hope New Haven’s parade will be rescheduled for a free day on their schedule.

“We’re a not-for-profit and the parade moneys go into our treasury, so we’ll have to make it up in some fashion,” said Joe Mooney of the Stony Creek Fife & Drum Corps in Branford.

“While it’s unfortunate, as we were looking forward to that great parade … we appreciate their concern and respect what their decision is,” he said. “I’ve been marching in that parade since I was a youngster in the early ’60s,” he said.

Mooney wouldn’t say how much the parade committee pays for the group to march, but the coronavirus definitely will hurt. “The Hartford parade is canceled, and Holyoke is uncertain,” Mooney said. The Milford parade organizers have yet to say whether that city’s parade will take place Saturday.

“We probably march 25 to 30 times a year,” he said.

Dave Bradley of Oxford, director of the Seymour-based Connecticut Alumni Drum and Bugle Corps, said there are no membership fees to join the unit, so “all the revenues we take off the street” pays for instructors, uniforms and instruments. But he said losing one date won’t hurt the group too much.

He said once the parade date is rescheduled, “if we’re available, we can march. The only other thing we run into is if we’re under contract with somebody else.”

Peter Burns of Milford, who said he marched in the first St. Patrick’s Day parade of modern times, which marched down Whalley Avenue in 1956, has been a judge for about 35 years.

“I’ve always been involved. I haven’t missed a parade,” he said.

“I feel terrible for the parade committee,” Burns said. “They work so hard, plus they look forward to this … and they do a wonderful job. And then to have the rug pulled out from them, it’s heartbreaking.”

Grand Marshal Seamus Bohan, like grand marshals before him, including his late father, Michael Bohan, worked his way up through the ranks of the committee, and now must wait to see when the parade will be rescheduled. Bohan said Tuesday he was disappointed the parade would be rescheduled but declined to say more.

Burns said he and fellow judge Bill Brennan look for uniformity, musical talent and proper respect for the American flag as the units pass by the judging stand.

“During that 30-yard pass-by you have to look like you’re in a parade, not waving to your friends at a football game, waving to the crowd,” he said. While both the American and Irish flags must be treated with respect, “the American flag is always to the right. There’s nothing to the right of it, and there’s always a weapon to protect it,” he said. That “weapon” can be a sidearm, rifle, saber or even a fire horn, Burns said.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 11, 2020, 01:32:57 PM
Another parade tie-in thing.  I saw this graph from 1918 Spanish flu cases where St. Louis cancelled a parade and Philadelphia didn't.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 11, 2020, 01:35:59 PM
I am in no way questioning the experts and I have no reason to doubt Dr Fauci but we also need to understand both the source of that reference(in terms of possible accuracy) and intent of using that number. This is literally a scare number(10x) it is meant to drive a call to action and get people to pay attention as opposed to using the "real" number of 1% mortality rate. 1% sounds small and in the grand scheme of virology it is small but that doesn't drive action. So people are going to cling to 10x but context is important
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TSmith34 on March 11, 2020, 01:36:38 PM
sorry, dupe post
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TSmith34 on March 11, 2020, 01:37:49 PM
Eng, I hear you on purity of data, etc. 

This wasn't some guy on social though.  He is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and is leading much of the communication for the government.  Long-time bureaucrat across multiple administrations.  He is trying to get folks to do something and making a point that people need to take this seriously.

Exactly, this was not me looking at the data and not knowing how to properly interpret it, this was the expert on infectious diseases.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 11, 2020, 01:42:05 PM
I am in no way questioning the experts and I have no reason to doubt Dr Fauci but we also need to understand both the source of that reference(in terms of possible accuracy) and intent of using that number. This is literally a scare number(10x) it is meant to drive a call to action and get people to pay attention as opposed to using the "real" number of 1% mortality rate. 1% sounds small and in the grand scheme of virology it is small but that doesn't drive action. So people are going to cling to 10x but context is important

Yes, but he is an expert, understands what he was saying and still chose to say it.  That says something to me.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 11, 2020, 01:55:14 PM
i've got an interesting situation that would probably not even be considered if not for our pandemic

  my wife is in the end stages of breast cancer treatment.  everything is going great! small, stage 1 no lymph node involvement, totally removed via lumpectomy.  she had 12 weeks of chemo, once per week followed by radiation for 3 weeks and now the antibody, herseptin thru her port every 3 weeks.  during the winter she would stay at our place just outside phoenix and i would join her every few weeks for either a long weekend or a full 7-10 days.  she is due to have her herseptin this coming monday, but with the coronavirus thing we thought we'd see our insurance would cover it in our wisconsin network because it's $20k per dose and we have a whole separate deductible to be met out of network. she went to see an oncologist in phoenix who's willing to work with her oncologist from here.  if our health insurance will not cover it, they were willing to drop the price from $20k to $2k.  this could help her avoid having to fly back and potentially put her at more risk.  my point is, if not for our situation, the insurance, our doc and phoenix doc would probably not even consider this option.  silver lining?  don't know
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 11, 2020, 02:02:01 PM
Yes, but he is an expert, understands what he was saying and still chose to say it.  That says something to me.

Did you see him say it and the context around it or did you read it through the media filter?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 11, 2020, 02:21:47 PM
Did you see him say it and the context around it or did you read it through the media filter?

I read it through multiple articles and looked for one that actually used quotations attributed to the Doctor.

You can watch it here if you want.  His assessment of on trajectory and his opinion on testing starts around 33 mins in (this piece was widely reported). 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbR4NuBTJqo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbR4NuBTJqo)

I cant find his comment on 10X but bloomberg has the video below.  It actually addresses alot of what people are going back and forth on (including H1N1 thing that some have latched onto). 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-11/fauci-warns-coronavirus-far-more-lethal-than-seasonal-flu (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-11/fauci-warns-coronavirus-far-more-lethal-than-seasonal-flu)

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 11, 2020, 02:26:39 PM
UW Lacrosse and Beloit close.

Confirmed case in downtown Chicago from Prudential center. Is this the first positive case downtown? Because that could start the dominoes down here
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Spotcheck Billy on March 11, 2020, 02:41:40 PM
Great idea.  Let's have everyone spend the entire day in completely packed bars instead.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/03/07/during-spanish-flu-milwaukee-closed-churches-schools-not-saloons/4979405002/ (https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/03/07/during-spanish-flu-milwaukee-closed-churches-schools-not-saloons/4979405002/)

In 1918-19, Milwaukee was among the most successful cities in minimizing the impact of the Spanish flu, though not all of the restrictions it imposed were popular. Clergy weren't pleased that in October 1918 the churches were closed, while saloons were not. Although saloons were allowed to remain open as usual for dining, "patrons stopping by for a drink had to consume it quickly and then leave," Navarro said.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 11, 2020, 02:44:54 PM
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/03/07/during-spanish-flu-milwaukee-closed-churches-schools-not-saloons/4979405002/ (https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/03/07/during-spanish-flu-milwaukee-closed-churches-schools-not-saloons/4979405002/)

In 1918-19, Milwaukee was among the most successful cities in minimizing the impact of the Spanish flu, though not all of the restrictions it imposed were popular. Clergy weren't pleased that in October 1918 the churches were closed, while saloons were not. Although saloons were allowed to remain open as usual for dining, "patrons stopping by for a drink had to consume it quickly and then leave," Navarro said.

So the Spanish Flu created the original bar crawl?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: reinko on March 11, 2020, 02:55:58 PM
So the Spanish Flu created the original bar crawl?

Just got reminded of the Spanish O’Donnells, talk about a pandemic inducing event.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GB Warrior on March 11, 2020, 02:59:18 PM
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/03/07/during-spanish-flu-milwaukee-closed-churches-schools-not-saloons/4979405002/ (https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/03/07/during-spanish-flu-milwaukee-closed-churches-schools-not-saloons/4979405002/)

In 1918-19, Milwaukee was among the most successful cities in minimizing the impact of the Spanish flu, though not all of the restrictions it imposed were popular. Clergy weren't pleased that in October 1918 the churches were closed, while saloons were not. Although saloons were allowed to remain open as usual for dining, "patrons stopping by for a drink had to consume it quickly and then leave," Navarro said.

Didn't get the flu, but did get Millerlitis
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 11, 2020, 03:02:01 PM
Just got reminded of the Spanish O’Donnells, talk about a pandemic inducing event.

Oh god. I remember when that was played at house parties around campus...
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 11, 2020, 03:32:54 PM
If we draw a line with a sharpie around the entire country, won’t that keep the germs out?

It’s pretty pathetic that we have to look to governors and mayors to deal with a national crisis.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 11, 2020, 03:52:31 PM
No fans for March Madness. Family only.

Should be “interesting” viewing.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Golden Avalanche on March 11, 2020, 04:04:21 PM
No fans for March Madness. Family only.

Should be “interesting” viewing.

Well, at least we won't have to worry about MU fans harassing the Howard family.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 11, 2020, 05:17:23 PM
One last kind of diatribe, and no I'm not a doctor but I've read a lot of books/SME papers and stayed in a number of Holiday Inn Expresses over the years.

There are four main factors of concern for communicable diseases, especially viruses:
-How contagious they are
-How deadly they are
-How alterable they are (how often/extensively they mutate)
-How much we can intervene

Each disease has it's own balance of these four factors that make it what it is. Consider them design trade-offs, something that almost assuredly kills you is also very likely not to be all that contagious and/or a sick person is easily identifiable. Or a disease is highly alterable (there are hundreds of flu mutations) but that variability means that the virus tends to be low on the kill scale because it has to exist in a host for a long time to mutate meaning the host needs to remain alive to support the mutation so to speak. Take some common disease examples, flu, HIV, and Ebola.

Flu is highly contagious and has a high mutation rate but has a low kill rate (0.1%) and allows for moderate intervention (there is some vaccination success and if you get it you can generally treat at home....remember the flu wants to mutate so it needs as many hosts as possible to live as long as possible ie evolution)

HIV is moderately contagious (it's not airborne nor tactile but transmission through blood is a very certain infection) and it is easily disguised (until it becomes AIDS you don't know someone has HIV). However HIV has almost no mutation to it so once you get a handle on it generally you can intervene and/or prevent it's transmission.

Ebola is very contagious if you come in contact with someone who has it, but that person is very visible sick meaning the virus transmission rate is pretty low. It doesn't really mutate(kills too fast) but it's kill rate is very high. So containment is the order of the day because A) you can see it and B) you can't intervene once someone gets it.

As far as Coronavirus, what we know is that it is highly contagious (long incubation period without symptoms and remains on surfaces for a while) but the trade off is that generally the symptoms are mild as a trade off for the long incubation period. What we don't yet know is how much it can/will mutate....if it mutates a lot it will become seasonal, if it doesn't mutate much or at all we can eradicate it like Small Pox, etc. It's kill rate is higher than we are "comfortable" with but that is largely because it is a new virus that we haven't figured out the interventions on and it is exhibiting an tendency to "swarm" creating a lot of carriers and those carriers with underlying conditions become critical which flood the system resulting if likely higher than what will become the standard kill rate.

Bottom line, if we slow the infection rate (this virus cannot be contained) we buy time for the healthcare system to treat the critical patients at a more reasonable rate(which will lower the mortality rate) AND we develop interventions whether its a vaccine or standard response options, or a herd immunity.

All the above is what organizations like the CDC are trying to accomplish but given the relative ignorance of the general public in this subject matter area they are forced to be more alarmist then necessary to try and drive the right behavior.....lump in a broken political system and American culture and you get a 30 page thread on scope about it and the stupidity of stocking up on toilet paper.

Limiting large crowds or working from home for a while or not putting a bunch of kids in dorms for a while makes sense and will slow the infection rate until it's largely distributed through out the population. This is temporary and life will likely return to whatever passes for normal within 6-9 months barring some new intel on the virus. It is neither time to panic nor be cavalier. All will be well.


Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 11, 2020, 05:26:58 PM
U of Minnesota extending Spring Break by a week, then moving all classes online until further notice. I suspect it won’t be long before all schools do this.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 11, 2020, 06:08:31 PM
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation?fbclid=IwAR3HsmoT8yNGFFijfSS9B70GRpfKp8L7iB9FX9P3G1Sz0IQmIR7zX_IMesw
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 11, 2020, 07:28:29 PM
  so when is it going to be officially "safe" to resume living our lives?  when a proven vaccine comes out?  so will this be like the small pox vaccine or whatever that was, sugar cube in a small paper cup?  back in the 60's?  i remember the lines into the high school gymnasium.  what about the anti-vaccine crowd? 

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 11, 2020, 07:34:45 PM

As far as Coronavirus, what we know is that it is highly contagious (long incubation period without symptoms and remains on surfaces for a while) but the trade off is that generally the symptoms are mild as a trade off for the long incubation period. What we don't yet know is how much it can/will mutate....if it mutates a lot it will become seasonal, if it doesn't mutate much or at all we can eradicate it like Small Pox, etc. It's kill rate is higher than we are "comfortable" with but that is largely because it is a new virus that we haven't figured out the interventions on and it is exhibiting an tendency to "swarm" creating a lot of carriers and those carriers with underlying conditions become critical which flood the system resulting if likely higher than what will become the standard kill rate.


Some misconceptions here and some other misconceptions in other places in this thread (not necessarily from you).

The coronavirus is actually not that infectious compared to many other diseases.

The symptoms are mild in some people, but very aggressive in others. Bilateral pneumonia that includes in some cases permanent lung damage is not mild. That is very aggressive.

We actually do know how quickly it mutates. Coronviruses mutate reasonably rapidly, and our immune system sucks at gaining long-term immunity. That is why you can often get the same cold twice in one season.

Related misconception that I saw on here, where someone stated that viruses don't mutate to become more aggressive or deadly. That is technically not true. Viruses don't specifically mutate towards any end goal. Mutations are random, some can make it far more aggressive and deadly, others less aggressive. There is no way over a short term to predict which will occur. Over the long term, survival of the fittest wins, and a less deadly form will dominate. That would be over many many generations of the virus. In the short term, it can mutate to a more deadly strain. We can't predict which direction it will go...its random.

We actually likely know the actual kill rate. In China they were going door to door testing everyone repeatedly. China likely had fairly accurate numbers, similar in Korea. They may be off, but they'd be off by something like 10-20%, maybe 30%. That would bring the death rates down to around the 1-2% that the WHO and CDC are predicting, 10x higher than the flu.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 11, 2020, 07:36:10 PM
  so when is it going to be officially "safe" to resume living our lives?  when a proven vaccine comes out?  so will this be like the small pox vaccine or whatever that was, sugar cube in a small paper cup?  back in the 60's?  i remember the lines into the high school gymnasium.  what about the anti-vaccine crowd?

If we don't stop the spread, this will just become a part of life. I'd largely resume your normal life now, with minor extra precautions, e.g. more diligent about washing hands and in the short term, being a little more pragmatic about whether you attend events with large crowds.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 11, 2020, 07:53:10 PM
Cool, but kind of eerie pictures in this article. Especially if you've been to some of these places and know what it usually looks like this time of year.

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2020/03/empty-spaces-due-coronavirus-fears/607666/

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 11, 2020, 08:10:49 PM
If you haven't been terrified in the past few minutes, try this link:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/ (https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/)

Highlights:

"There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems).

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities.

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."

She added: "This virus is so infectious that the only way to avoid a 'massacre' is to have the least number possible getting infected over the longest possible timescale.

"Right now, if we get 10,000 people in Italy in need of ventilators - when we only have 3,000 in the country - 7,000 people will die.

"Rome right now is like where Milan was 10 days ago. In 10 days there has been an incredible escalation.

"Lombardy, which has the best healthcare in the country, is collapsing, so I don’t dare to think what would happen in less efficient regions.

"But the very young are crazy carriers.

"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".


"All the resuscitation bays are full. They’re having to triage, deciding who to intubate and who to let die."


He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

"There aren’t the resources to screen doctors for Covid-19 anymore - they’re just telling them 'stay home if you have symptoms, otherwise come to work'."

The World Health Organisation ranks Italy second in the world for health care provision, with only France rated higher. The UK is 18th.

And yet even a system as good as this is teetering on the brink.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 11, 2020, 08:22:02 PM
If you haven't been terrified in the past few minutes, try this link:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/ (https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/)

Highlights:

"There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems).

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities.

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."

She added: "This virus is so infectious that the only way to avoid a 'massacre' is to have the least number possible getting infected over the longest possible timescale.

"Right now, if we get 10,000 people in Italy in need of ventilators - when we only have 3,000 in the country - 7,000 people will die.

"Rome right now is like where Milan was 10 days ago. In 10 days there has been an incredible escalation.

"Lombardy, which has the best healthcare in the country, is collapsing, so I don’t dare to think what would happen in less efficient regions.

"But the very young are crazy carriers.

"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".


"All the resuscitation bays are full. They’re having to triage, deciding who to intubate and who to let die."


He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

"There aren’t the resources to screen doctors for Covid-19 anymore - they’re just telling them 'stay home if you have symptoms, otherwise come to work'."

The World Health Organisation ranks Italy second in the world for health care provision, with only France rated higher. The UK is 18th.

And yet even a system as good as this is teetering on the brink.


'just the flu'
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 11, 2020, 08:42:22 PM
Serious rumor that the rest of the NBA season is postponed.

Also, Tom Hanks and his wife have tested positive in Australia.

Well, its not a rumor.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28887560/nba-suspends-season-further-notice-player-tests-positive-coronavirus

So much for the Bucks... Christ.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sir Lawrence on March 11, 2020, 08:48:56 PM
Hiatus.  Whatever that means. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Blackhat on March 11, 2020, 09:36:46 PM
I will give you one guess which country is the world's largest producer of human vaccines?

China

The media machine is powerful.  This is a good test though of are you and your emotions a sheep to the powerful media machine or not.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 11, 2020, 09:38:16 PM
I will give you one guess which country is the world's largest producer of human vaccines?

China

The media machine is powerful.  This is a good test though of are you and your emotions a sheep to the powerful media machine or not.

Would you please expand?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Blackhat on March 11, 2020, 09:52:19 PM
Connect the dots and use critical thinking, it's pretty obvious to figure out when for the last 30 years we've been sending jobs to and financing China's economy at our expense with hardly a peep from the globalist run media.  Recently that changed some.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 11, 2020, 09:52:32 PM
Would you please expand?

Cocktails.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 11, 2020, 09:53:19 PM
Connect the dots and use critical thinking, it's pretty obvious to figure out when for the last 30 years we've been sending jobs to and financing China's economy at our expense with hardly a peep from the globalist run media.  Recently that changed some.

Its easier if you just tell us your crackpot theory, rather than being vague.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Eldon on March 11, 2020, 09:56:52 PM
Connect the dots and use critical thinking, it's pretty obvious to figure out when for the last 30 years we've been sending jobs to and financing China's economy at our expense with hardly a peep from the globalist run media.  Recently that changed some.

Financial markets would sniff through all that.  They'd ferret out the truth. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GB Warrior on March 11, 2020, 10:12:20 PM
Financial markets would sniff through all that.  They'd ferret out the truth.

Financial markets are jittery because they're tired of all the winning.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sir Lawrence on March 11, 2020, 10:19:27 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/RobDauster/status/1237926172283015168?s=19
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on March 11, 2020, 10:21:08 PM
Connect the dots and use critical thinking, it's pretty obvious to figure out when for the last 30 years we've been sending jobs to and financing China's economy at our expense with hardly a peep from the globalist run media.  Recently that changed some.

5th OWI yesterday, eh kin?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on March 11, 2020, 10:23:01 PM
Boys state basketball championships in Madison next week have been cancelled, per Mark Miller on the

TWITTA TRACKA
[/size][/color]
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 11, 2020, 11:02:14 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/RobDauster/status/1237926172283015168?s=19

Entire Nebraska team currently under quarantine. Not allowed to leave the locker room.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GB Warrior on March 12, 2020, 12:42:14 AM
Entire Nebraska team currently under quarantine. Not allowed to leave the locker room.

Later confirmed as influenza A (aka 'just the flu'  ::))
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 12, 2020, 06:46:58 AM
Its easier if you just tell us your crackpot theory, rather than being vague.

see, this is where unnecessary divisions are created-"crackpot" ?    when people believe different from you, it's "crackpot"?  we've already established that you're background is "biomedical sciences"  'nuff said,   stay in your lane so all of us can drive safe

  the media isn't conventional wisdom

out of bad comes good/improved.  if one does not learn from their mistakes, they are doomed, lucky if they are able to repeat them.  this is our opportunity to grow a pair and take back control of our own destiny. 

  let's pretend we are at war and our enemy makes all the ammunition
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: injuryBug on March 12, 2020, 06:58:08 AM
Boys state basketball championships in Madison next week have been cancelled, per Mark Miller on the

TWITTA TRACKA
[/size][/color]

not official yet, but only family would be allowed to attend.  My son is supposed to play in a sectional semi tonight and i will be honest it is real hard to get excited about it at this point.
Feels a lot like 9/11 when our lives changed forever
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: CreightonWarrior on March 12, 2020, 07:17:24 AM
Nebraska state basketball limiting to immediate family only.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 12, 2020, 07:38:42 AM
see, this is where unnecessary divisions are created-"crackpot" ?    when people believe different from you, it's "crackpot"?  we've already established that you're background is "biomedical sciences"  'nuff said,   stay in your lane so all of us can drive safe

  the media isn't conventional wisdom

out of bad comes good/improved.  if one does not learn from their mistakes, they are doomed, lucky if they are able to repeat them.  this is our opportunity to grow a pair and take back control of our own destiny. 

  let's pretend we are at war and our enemy makes all the ammunition

Lol. It’s a crackpot theory. Sorry if that offends you.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TallTitan34 on March 12, 2020, 07:58:08 AM
Later confirmed as influenza A (aka 'just the flu'  ::))

Not only did Fred show up sick when 99.9% of people agree don’t go to work sick, he showed up looking like he was going to drop 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jficke13 on March 12, 2020, 08:09:44 AM
Connect the dots and use critical thinking, it's pretty obvious to figure out when for the last 30 years we've been sending jobs to and financing China's economy at our expense with hardly a peep from the globalist run media.  Recently that changed some.

"globalist"

When someone tells you who they are, believe them. Even if they tell you with words that give them plausible deniability.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 12, 2020, 08:13:50 AM
Not only did Fred show up sick when 99.9% of people agree don’t go to work sick, he showed up looking like he was going to drop

He wanted his version of the flu game
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 12, 2020, 08:48:37 AM
However one feels about whether this whole situation is overblown or not being treated seriously enough, I think we can all agree that this is an example of how not to handle things.

One of the bigger junior volleyball tournaments of the year is/was scheduled to start today in Denver. In typical years, it would probably have 700 teams or so. Last night at about 9:00 USAV "recommended" that all events be cancelled or postponed. The tournament is sanctioned by USAV, but each of these big qualifying tournaments is owned/operated by an independent entity. At approximately midnight, the tournament released a statement indicating that in spite of USAV's recommendation, they were going forward. This was done with the understanding that many people would be traveling today, and to let them know to feel free to come. My immediate reaction was to think that they were setting up the worst possible scenario -- people will travel there and then they'll have to cancel it. Less than six hours later (5:30 AM) they reversed course and cancelled. I suppose it's better than cancelling later in the day, but still a problem as many people already were on their way.

Making matters worse, they announced the cancellation on Facebook but their website still had last night's notice until very recently.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 12, 2020, 08:49:50 AM
Stop with the hand sanitizer craze, mkay?

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/11/21173187/coronavirus-covid-19-hand-washing-sanitizer-compared-soap-is-dope (https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/11/21173187/coronavirus-covid-19-hand-washing-sanitizer-compared-soap-is-dope)

.. there’s one consumer product critical to our great national battle to “flatten the curve,” or slow the epidemic: soap. Humble, ancient, cheap, effective soap.

Sanitizer might feel like a modern-day, scientific, and more clinical upgrade to soap. But I’m here to tell you that soap — all sorts of it: liquid, solid, honeysuckle-scented, the versions inexplicably only marketed to men or women — is a badass, and even more routinely effective than hand sanitizer.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 12, 2020, 08:54:01 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-09/how-coronavirus-spread-from-patient-zero-in-seattle

How'd you like to be THIS guy?  Patient Zero in Seattle.  Comes back from Wuhan, and fast forward 28 days, the virus he transported has killed 18 so far.   

That's a lot of emotional baggage.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: shoothoops on March 12, 2020, 08:56:50 AM
not official yet, but only family would be allowed to attend.  My son is supposed to play in a sectional semi tonight and i will be honest it is real hard to get excited about it at this point.
Feels a lot like 9/11 when our lives changed forever

https://twitter.com/SusanKim4/status/1238100445761077250?s=19
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 12, 2020, 08:58:21 AM
FYI, this afternoon the Govenor of Wisconsin will be declaring a state of emergency
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MUfan12 on March 12, 2020, 09:04:26 AM
FYI, this afternoon the Govenor of Wisconsin will be declaring a state of emergency

(https://i.makeagif.com/media/7-15-2015/CiQY0T.gif)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TSmith34 on March 12, 2020, 09:33:46 AM
However one feels about whether this whole situation is overblown or not being treated seriously enough, I think we can all agree that this is an example of how not to handle things.

One of the bigger junior volleyball tournaments of the year is/was scheduled to start today in Denver. In typical years, it would probably have 700 teams or so. Last night at about 9:00 USAV "recommended" that all events be cancelled or postponed. The tournament is sanctioned by USAV, but each of these big qualifying tournaments is owned/operated by an independent entity. At approximately midnight, the tournament released a statement indicating that in spite of USAV's recommendation, they were going forward. This was done with the understanding that many people would be traveling today, and to let them know to feel free to come. My immediate reaction was to think that they were setting up the worst possible scenario -- people will travel there and then they'll have to cancel it. Less than six hours later (5:30 AM) they reversed course and cancelled. I suppose it's better than cancelling later in the day, but still a problem as many people already were on their way.

Making matters worse, they announced the cancellation on Facebook but their website still had last night's notice until very recently.
Our State tournament is scheduled to start 5/1.  I give it a 25% chance to happen at this point, i.e., we'll be over the worst of it and travel and crowds will start to go back to normal.  I suspect it is more likely sometime this summer that that actually happens.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 12, 2020, 10:00:48 AM
I heard from one of my Chinese customers this morning.  (Chengdu)  FWIW - She said the epidemic situation in China has improved.  Many cities have not added new cases for a long time, and she is very confident that she will take off the mask soon.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 12, 2020, 10:31:17 AM
I heard from one of my Chinese customers this morning.  (Chengdu)  FWIW - She said the epidemic situation in China has improved.  Many cities have not added new cases for a long time, and she is very confident that she will take off the mask soon.

Wait until Americans and Europeans start bringing it back in with them
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 12, 2020, 10:36:07 AM
Wait until Americans and Europeans start bringing it back in with them

Is there any information on reinfection?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: 4everwarriors on March 12, 2020, 11:23:25 AM
FYI, this afternoon the Govenor of Wisconsin will be declaring a state of emergency





Has da DNC bin canceled, hey?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 12, 2020, 11:32:08 AM
Is there any information on reinfection?

Not that I know of, but if China "reopens" anyone who hasn't gotten it because of extreme containment procedures is vulnerable again which starts it all over again. That's why you flatten the curve, not kill it at this point.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: injuryBug on March 12, 2020, 11:37:31 AM
so if mitchell is the only Jazz player to get the virus does that make us less worried about how easy this is transmitted?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 12, 2020, 11:40:44 AM
so if mitchell is the only Jazz player to get the virus does that make us less worried about how easy this is transmitted?

So the Utah Jazz represent the entirety of the data on how easilly this disease is transmitted?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: injuryBug on March 12, 2020, 11:45:57 AM
a simple question could the virus being slowing?  has it mutated since it was in china?  I dont know just asking, everyone takes the numbers and turns them the way they want them anyway so this is a real situation that can be tracked
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 12, 2020, 11:49:30 AM
a simple question could the virus being slowing?  has it mutated since it was in china?  I dont know just asking, everyone takes the numbers and turns them the way they want them anyway so this is a real situation that can be tracked

The Utah Jazz aren't a representative population.  Just pay attention to what the CDC and NIH are saying.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GB Warrior on March 12, 2020, 11:55:15 AM




Has da DNC bin canceled, hey?

Well, it's going to be interesting as the NBA figures out its plans. It can't really move the playoff schedule, so assuming life resumes as normal at some point, it likely just truncates the regular season and wouldn't impact.

But there's an AWFUL lot of infrastructure that had to go into this to make it work in a normal year. This is no longer a normal year.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 12, 2020, 12:25:43 PM
Not that I know of, but if China "reopens" anyone who hasn't gotten it because of extreme containment procedures is vulnerable again which starts it all over again. That's why you flatten the curve, not kill it at this point.

China would be smart to ban flights for now.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ChuckyChip on March 12, 2020, 12:53:38 PM
MLB and NHL suspending operations.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 12, 2020, 12:57:34 PM
For those interested in reinfection, mutations, etc. This is a summary of an old study, but is relevant here.

Coronaviruses cause the common cold. We can get the same cold virus multiple times in a season, because of the structure of coronaviruses. That means reinfection in the same year is plausible, and we will likely not generate long-term immunity. This is due to a combination of mutations and the structure of coronaviruses. This is summarized in the link below.

https://www.technologynetworks.com/immunology/news/why-dont-we-ever-develop-immunity-against-the-common-cold-294551

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 12, 2020, 12:58:47 PM
For those interested in reinfection, mutations, etc. This is a summary of an old study, but is relevant here.

Coronaviruses cause the common cold. We can get the same cold virus multiple times in a season, because of the structure of coronaviruses. That means reinfection in the same year is plausible, and we will likely not generate long-term immunity. This is due to a combination of mutations and the structure of coronaviruses. This is summarized in the link below.

https://www.technologynetworks.com/immunology/news/why-dont-we-ever-develop-immunity-against-the-common-cold-294551




Would such mutations also mean that the disease could be less deadly and less easily transmitted as well?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: #UnleashSean on March 12, 2020, 01:02:59 PM

Would such mutations also mean that the disease could be less deadly and less easily transmitted as well?

there are two strains already known to be less deadly.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 12, 2020, 02:20:10 PM
Ohio governor just cancelled all schools K-12 for three weeks.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 12, 2020, 02:23:54 PM
Ohio governor just cancelled all schools K-12 for three weeks.

I was expecting this too.  Other countries have done it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 12, 2020, 02:37:19 PM
I was expecting this too.  Other countries have done it.

Still feels extreme, a lot of kids depend on school meal programs, etc
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 12, 2020, 02:40:04 PM
Still feels extreme, a lot of kids depend on school meal programs, etc

This my GF tells me a lot of her students come to school just for two free meals.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: BM1090 on March 12, 2020, 02:49:42 PM
Do we think domestic flights/airports will be shut down at any point?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 12, 2020, 02:54:04 PM
Do we think domestic flights/airports will be shut down at any point?

I personally don't think so - I think you recommend avoiding unnecessary travel (many already are) and then the airlines do whatever they must. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Bad_Reporter on March 12, 2020, 02:58:13 PM
Do we think domestic flights/airports will be shut down at any point?

No.

No info, just an opinion
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 12, 2020, 03:15:46 PM
I know the 1918 flu has been brought up here a few times, and maybe I missed this link previously, but an interesting 2007 report of the economic impact, and what it could mean for a pandemic today.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf

I haven't read every word yet, but seemed relevant.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Golden Avalanche on March 12, 2020, 03:50:08 PM
Do we think domestic flights/airports will be shut down at any point?

potus said today it's something he will look at. We all know he's a purveyor of word salad but if it's now on his radar then you have to consider it a possibility.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: HouWarrior on March 12, 2020, 04:12:07 PM
Mexico reports many less cases than other parts of the world

They have dealt with Corona for decades...its better with a wedge of lime
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sir Lawrence on March 12, 2020, 04:31:29 PM
Milwaukee Archbishop Jerome Listecki Dispenses Catholics from their Sunday Mass Obligation Due to Coronavirus

MILWAUKEE  ― The Archdiocese of Milwaukee announced today that Milwaukee Archbishop Jerome E. Listecki has dispensed Catholics from their obligation to attend Sunday Mass due to concerns about the spread of Covid-19, the coronavirus. The dispensation will cover the next two weeks, including Masses for Sundays March 15, 22 and 29. Masses will still be celebrated across the 10 counties of the archdiocese, but the obligation to attend Sunday Mass will be lifted, leaving attendance to people’s individual judgment.

[there's more, if you are interested:  https://www.archmil.org/News-2.0/Archbishop-Listecki-Dispenses-Catholics-from-Sunday-Mass-Obligation.htm ]
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 12, 2020, 04:33:41 PM
Ohio is being extremely aggressive about this. The Director of the Ohio Department of Health said today that she believes at least 1% of Ohioans (i.e., at least 100k) are already infected. That certainly surprised me to hear.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 12, 2020, 05:04:42 PM
Ohio is being extremely aggressive about this. The Director of the Ohio Department of Health said today that she believes at least 1% of Ohioans (i.e., at least 100k) are already infected. That certainly surprised me to hear.

I'd love to hear the basis for that considering they are reporting only 4 confirmed
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 12, 2020, 05:09:08 PM
I'd love to hear the basis for that considering they are reporting only 4 confirmed

Five, but your point stands.

She cited some source -- that I haven't read yet -- that if you have two cases of community spread, it's likely that 1% are infected. I'm skeptical. I have come around to recognizing that this is a very serious situation, but that just seems a little over-the-top. And coming from the State's top health official, I'm surprised.

A report of her comment here (https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus).
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 12, 2020, 05:15:08 PM
Milwaukee Archbishop Jerome Listecki Dispenses Catholics from their Sunday Mass Obligation Due to Coronavirus
Masses will still be celebrated across the 10 counties of the archdiocese, but the obligation to attend Sunday Mass will be lifted, leaving attendance to people’s individual judgment.

I was just discussing this with my wife last night .. her parents are near 80 years old and frankly .. should NOT go to church for the next few months.  It shouldn't even be left to their own judgement. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 12, 2020, 05:59:39 PM
Lol. It’s a crackpot theory. Sorry if that offends you.

LOL?  you ok?  absolutely no offense taken, just trying to level the playing field
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 12, 2020, 06:00:25 PM
So...yeah...still not enough known, but spreads easily...

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-covid-19-may-spread-several-different-ways

Quote
They also drew the eight-floor shopping mall showing the floors where the COVID-19 patients worked or shopped, dates of onset, potential incubation periods, symptom durations, and times of positive diagnosis and hospital release.

Except for those who had visited floor 7, no patients reported close contact with the other patients. "The possibility of customers being infected from other sources cannot be excluded. However, most customers reported early symptom onset in a concentrated time frame," the authors wrote. "Our findings appear to indicate that low intensity transmission occurred without prolonged close contact in this mall; that is, the virus spread by indirect transmission."
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Chili on March 12, 2020, 06:05:39 PM
I'd love to hear the basis for that considering they are reporting only 4 confirmed

Read Angela Merkel's statements from earlier today. An actual leader talking to her citizens like adults with scientific facts. Ohio is doing what the US should be doing. Social distancing is the answer but Americans are too set in liberty and freedom to believe it. It's the one of negative effects of our society is that we believe in ourselves too much and don't follow rules or care for others in our community.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GB Warrior on March 12, 2020, 06:09:33 PM
Read Angela Merkel's statements from earlier today. An actual leader talking to her citizens like adults with scientific facts. Ohio is doing what the US should be doing. Social distancing is the answer but Americans are too set in liberty and freedom to believe it. It's the one of negative effects of our society is that we believe in ourselves too much and don't follow rules or care for others in our community.

Emphasis on the latter. Germans have a rooting in civic, nationalistic responsibility that allows the 'trust factor' to be meaningful.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: warriorchick on March 12, 2020, 06:10:26 PM
My organization has been ordered to work from home for the rest of the month. They also canceled my retirement party.  :-[
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Warriors4ever on March 12, 2020, 06:33:20 PM
Oh no warrior chick -maybe it can be held later.
My parish has announced it will be closed for the next ten days. We livestream the 5 pm Mass on Sundays already, so they are going to livestream one Sunday morning service.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 12, 2020, 06:42:49 PM
I'd love to hear the basis for that considering they are reporting only 4 confirmed

The number may well be exaggerated, but it's hard to confirm when the gov't doesn't provided testing.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 12, 2020, 06:44:10 PM
CDW just told pretty much all of us to work from home for at least 2 weeks. My manager told us to on Tuesday.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 12, 2020, 06:46:04 PM
STANFORD HOSPITAL BOARD INTERNAL MESSAGE SAYS:
Read and understand

The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can one know if he/she is infected? By the time they have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% Fibrosis and it's too late. Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning. Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, etc., it proves there is no Fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicates no infection. In critical time, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air.


EDIT:    THIS IS FALSE INFO. 

Serious excellent advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why? Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and into the lungs. That's very dangerous. Please send and share this with family and friends. Take care everyone and may the world recover from this Coronavirus soon.


EDIT: FALSE AGAIN:  https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8551030197 (https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8551030197)

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS

1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasis enough - drink plenty of water!

THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on March 12, 2020, 06:56:51 PM
LOL?  you ok?  absolutely no offense taken, just trying to level the playing field

Level the playing field?  This isn’t a debate. It’s a falsehood.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 12, 2020, 07:09:24 PM
STANFORD HOSPITAL BOARD INTERNAL MESSAGE SAYS:
Read and understand


Dr B... where'd you get that?  Is it authentic?  I mean .. the advice (if true) is gold.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 12, 2020, 07:11:44 PM
Edit:  Dr. B .. that may all be a hoax.  The 10 second breath hold is false.


The drinking water piece is false.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/taiwan-experts-self-check/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/taiwan-experts-self-check/)



https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8551030197 (https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8551030197)


Normally I don't edit people's posts, but I do not want false information spread around.   It's good to leave it there, though, so people can recognize the falsehoods.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 12, 2020, 07:26:45 PM
Edit:  Dr. B .. that may all be a hoax.  The 10 second breath hold is false.


The drinking water piece is false.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/taiwan-experts-self-check/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/taiwan-experts-self-check/)



https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8551030197 (https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8551030197)


Normally I don't edit people's posts, but I do not want false information spread around.   It's good to leave it there, though, so people can recognize the falsehoods.

Oh wow. Was sent to me via Facebook by a medical professional (who shall remain nameless...but I might share a pillow with).  Thanks for the fact check.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 12, 2020, 07:30:40 PM
Oh wow. Was sent to me via Facebook by a medical professional (who shall remain nameless...but I might share a pillow with).  Thanks for the fact check.

Ouch.  So, do us a favor and have your pillow partner follow up with whoever sent her that info, tell them it's false and, yadda yadda, stop spreading.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on March 12, 2020, 07:39:45 PM
Oh wow. Was sent to me via Facebook by a medical professional (who shall remain nameless...but I might share a pillow with).  Thanks for the fact check.

Gooooooo?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 12, 2020, 07:44:47 PM
Still feels extreme, a lot of kids depend on school meal programs, etc

An idea that has been floated is drive ups at schools.  You get 4 meals worth and can come back every other day.  How the kid gets to the school is probably trickier, but I imagine that a lot of the parents that have problems providing food for kids will also be out of work soon as well.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 12, 2020, 07:46:53 PM
I'd love to hear the basis for that considering they are reporting only 4 confirmed

Because there aren't enough tests to check people for this, and the tests don't turn over instantly.

I know you're a numbers guy, but sometimes you have to use estimates, and mathematical models to determine this sort of thing.  Just like we can't with absolute accuracy predict the CFR, we can go with what we have.

You can only tell John Q Public, "We don't know" so long before they freak out.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 12, 2020, 07:48:53 PM
Ohio is being extremely aggressive about this. The Director of the Ohio Department of Health said today that she believes at least 1% of Ohioans (i.e., at least 100k) are already infected. That certainly surprised me to hear.

Wow, that person is ridiculously overestimating the number of infections. There is little to no data to support such an assertion.

I know epidemiologists that have run many models with the best CDC data, and that is way off scale from even their most aggressive models.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 12, 2020, 07:49:19 PM
LOL?  you ok?  absolutely no offense taken, just trying to level the playing field

Well, I mean, I injected zero politics into it.  So you swung and missed on the criticism of me there.  He was talking in vagaries for no reason.  Why else say it that way unless he is embarrassed to explain himself?  He never really responded after with what he meant.  I don't know the guy, could have been some Democratic Hoax crackpot theory.

Cool your jets, mate.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: jesmu84 on March 12, 2020, 07:53:22 PM
An idea that has been floated is drive ups at schools.  You get 4 meals worth and can come back every other day.  How the kid gets to the school is probably trickier, but I imagine that a lot of the parents that have problems providing food for kids will also be out of work soon as well.

Don't worry. Congress is gonna pass a bill supporting working families.

Wait. No. Sorry.

Govt instead gonna give a trillion to wall street
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 12, 2020, 07:53:54 PM
Ouch.  So, do us a favor and have your pillow partner follow up with whoever sent her that info, tell them it's false and, yadda yadda, stop spreading.

Well it was a doctor who sent it to her to be fair. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: reinko on March 12, 2020, 07:55:29 PM
An idea that has been floated is drive ups at schools.  You get 4 meals worth and can come back every other day.  How the kid gets to the school is probably trickier, but I imagine that a lot of the parents that have problems providing food for kids will also be out of work soon as well.
I live in Montgomery County in Maryland, and they have closed schools for at least 2 weeks, and have already announced plans for pick up meals for families.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 12, 2020, 08:00:50 PM
Well it was a doctor who sent it to her to be fair.

Doctors are not much different than anyone else here. The average doctor does not have much training in this arena, if any at all.

Scientists don't have enough data on this virus to make any valid conclusions. So there is a lot of false information circulating from even people that are supposed to be "respected sources".

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 12, 2020, 08:05:16 PM
Doctors are not much different than anyone else here. The average doctor does not have much training in this arena, if any at all.

Scientists don't have enough data on this virus to make any valid conclusions. So there is a lot of false information circulating from even people that are supposed to be "respected sources".

So true. Staying hydrated with a virus and doing a breath check isn't wrong...it's just not right with this SOB either as this evolves.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 12, 2020, 08:35:38 PM
Not official yet, but it sounds like many Milwaukee area school districts will be closing starting on Monday. 

Teachers are preparing packets of "work" for kids to deliver tomorrow.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: rocket surgeon on March 12, 2020, 09:10:33 PM
Doctors are not much different than anyone else here. The average doctor does not have much training in this arena, if any at all.

Scientists don't have enough data on this virus to make any valid conclusions. So there is a lot of false information circulating from even people that are supposed to be "respected sources".

let's not over simplify this forget.  i think most in the biological/medical field have quite a bit more understanding of this than "anyone else here".  that is not saying we are better than anyone else though.  it's just that we have an educational background/foundation like understanding a foreign language.  once you know how microbio, proteins, enzymes, osmosis, solubilities, rna, dna, yadda yadda...now, when it starts getting really intricate, with pharmaceuticals for example.  that's when i am not bashful at all about calling a pharmacist.  my little brother has been a pharmacist at merriter hospital in direct patient care for 25 years-solid!  for this, an epidemiologist is worth his weight.  otherwise opinions can be like...everyone has one
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 12, 2020, 09:14:35 PM
Not official yet, but it sounds like many Milwaukee area school districts will be closing starting on Monday. 

Teachers are preparing packets of "work" for kids to deliver tomorrow.

I have a first person account of a Dane county school where the teachers are learning how to teach online.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: skianth16 on March 12, 2020, 10:49:33 PM
Read Angela Merkel's statements from earlier today. An actual leader talking to her citizens like adults with scientific facts. Ohio is doing what the US should be doing. Social distancing is the answer but Americans are too set in liberty and freedom to believe it. It's the one of negative effects of our society is that we believe in ourselves too much and don't follow rules or care for others in our community.

Didn't Merkel say that 70% of the population would be infected? What science is that based on?
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: skianth16 on March 12, 2020, 10:52:19 PM
I haven't read every page, so this may have been posted already, but I think it's worth sharing regardless. Simple, effective steps to help prevent the spread are outlined. There's little panic, no sensational numbers, just basic advice.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2020/03/10/uw-madison-health-expert-has-advice-on-how-to-fight-coronavirus/5004659002/ (https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2020/03/10/uw-madison-health-expert-has-advice-on-how-to-fight-coronavirus/5004659002/)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on March 12, 2020, 10:52:44 PM
Didn't Merkel say that 70% of the population would be infected? What science is that based on?

Yeah, you dont want to follow the krauts on this one.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 12, 2020, 11:15:04 PM
Didn't Merkel say that 70% of the population would be infected? What science is that based on?

She's predicting that 70% of the population will eventually be infected. Without controls that is what science predicts. Right now most science also says that we may slow the rate of infections, but we won't decrease the eventual total number infected.

I disagree with the latter aspect, but what she is claiming is consistent with the science.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: skianth16 on March 12, 2020, 11:24:45 PM
Didn't Merkel say that 70% of the population would be infected? What science is that based on?

I'll answer my own question on this one. The article below helps explain some of the numbers that seem to be creating so much fear/panic/concern right now.

The way I understand this is that containing the virus may be extremely difficult, especially with so many unknowns regarding transmission and treatment. And if that does prove to be the case, the virus may become part of the annual cold and flu season. If this is the case, then sure, I can understand the idea of a majority of the population becoming infected.

But there seems to be a very important caveat to that message. There could be a possibility that you will be infected ***at some point in your life*** The message that seems to be coming through and that has been repeated often is that these high rates of infection are likely to occur all at once and soon.

If the high infection rate message coming from experts refers to the idea of a new cold and flu season developing over a number of years, this should be clarified by researchers and leaders. Panic might help to achieve the needed results in the short-term, but education is important for the long-term.

]https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/[url] (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/[url)[/url]
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 13, 2020, 05:01:20 AM
I'll answer my own question on this one. The article below helps explain some of the numbers that seem to be creating so much fear/panic/concern right now.

The way I understand this is that containing the virus may be extremely difficult, especially with so many unknowns regarding transmission and treatment. And if that does prove to be the case, the virus may become part of the annual cold and flu season. If this is the case, then sure, I can understand the idea of a majority of the population becoming infected.

But there seems to be a very important caveat to that message. There could be a possibility that you will be infected ***at some point in your life*** The message that seems to be coming through and that has been repeated often is that these high rates of infection are likely to occur all at once and soon.

If the high infection rate message coming from experts refers to the idea of a new cold and flu season developing over a number of years, this should be clarified by researchers and leaders. Panic might help to achieve the needed results in the short-term, but education is important for the long-term.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/[url]]]https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/[url] (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/[url=http://)[/url]

Its really reassuring to see that a lot of people's information and understanding is weeks behind.  That article is two and a half weeks old.  You know, back when Italy had a grand total of 229 cases.

You're going to get it, but the time to trust government responses, and not take precautions, and prepare is well passed.

Once you start reading a bit more, you'll probably agree.

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 13, 2020, 06:56:03 AM
Still feels extreme, a lot of kids depend on school meal programs, etc

My town has closed schools & is making box lunches available to kids -- I guess it is similar to what they do in the summer months. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 13, 2020, 07:36:45 AM
I see the ODH Director's statement that 100,000 have it in Ohio is getting some national attention.  While I do admit to having some doubts about her statement - and particularly how definitively she presented it - I also note that if she's correct that he existence of seeing community spread means that "at least 1%, at the very least 1% of our population" is carrying the virus..." then the fatality rate is not nearly as high as many of the estimates. By her theory, somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.3 million have been infected in the US. We have had 36 deaths in the US. If 1% of the country is already infected, that would make the mortality rate very, very low -- 0.00001. So, something obviously is off. I suspect she's very high. (*Edited: I suspect her estimate is very high.) Data from everywhere else this has spread shows that there is a death rate considerably higher than the common flu. It would appear that it's somewhere between 0.7% (which is still considerably higher than the flu) and 2 or 3%.  Any estimate of total cases that would suggest a mortality rate that is much lower than the flu is, presumably, a bit off.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 13, 2020, 07:49:34 AM
In light of recent events, it's kind of interesting to look back over the early pages of this thread and see some of the hot takes...including my own.


I guess it depends on what you mean by "concerned".  I am concerned that a lot of people are getting sick and probably many will die.  To me, that's just a natural human concern. I am not particularly concerned that this virus will have a significant impact in the United States. So, if you're asking about the first of those, then yes, I am concerned. If you're asking about the second (which, in my opinion, is what a lot of people are asking), then no, I'm not concerned.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: lawdog77 on March 13, 2020, 07:52:20 AM
Yeah, you dont want to follow the krauts on this one.
not cool
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: skianth16 on March 13, 2020, 08:43:21 AM
Its really reassuring to see that a lot of people's information and understanding is weeks behind.  That article is two and a half weeks old.  You know, back when Italy had a grand total of 229 cases.

You're going to get it, but the time to trust government responses, and not take precautions, and prepare is well passed.

Once you start reading a bit more, you'll probably agree.

The information these scientists are working from isn't even always related to this particular virus. They're using historical information to help understand the current scenario and future scenarios better. Which is why it's still a very relevant article to help explain why some of the quoted infection rates are so high despite such low numbers today.

It's not like I'm wading through a stack of newspapers in date order here. I just found an article that very clearly helped to answer a question. And that question had nothing to do with appropriate responses, just an explanation for the exponential growth rates that don't make sense with just 120,000 cases globally.

If you want to disregard anything that's more than 72 hours old, that's your prerogative. But I would imagine a lot of people will find that link helpful, even if it's not up to your standards.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 13, 2020, 08:48:50 AM
Wonder why John Hopkins removed places like Iran, Italy, Spain, Germany, and others, from their list and tracking numbers.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 13, 2020, 08:58:57 AM
I see the ODH Director's statement that 100,000 have it in Ohio is getting some national attention.  While I do admit to having some doubts about her statement - and particularly how definitively she presented it - I also note that if she's correct that he existence of seeing community spread means that "at least 1%, at the very least 1% of our population" is carrying the virus..." then the fatality rate is not nearly as high as many of the estimates. By her theory, somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.3 million have been infected in the US. We have had 36 deaths in the US. If 1% of the country is already infected, that would make the mortality rate very, very low -- 0.00001. So, something obviously is off. I suspect she's very high. (*Edited: I suspect her estimate is very high.) Data from everywhere else this has spread shows that there is a death rate considerably higher than the common flu. It would appear that it's somewhere between 0.7% (which is still considerably higher than the flu) and 2 or 3%.  Any estimate of total cases that would suggest a mortality rate that is much lower than the flu is, presumably, a bit off.

I think the long incubation period complicates the math. If she is correct, the majority or all of those 100K may be asymptomatic right now and if they all become symptomatic around the same time that is pretty problematic (theoretically at 1% fatality that means at least 1,000 critical patients within days of each other)

What I can't get a sense of with stories out of China from a couple of weeks ago and Italy now, how many of the deaths are infrastructure based(the overwhelming of) and how many are "inevitable" because of the disease.

The next 10 days will be interesting because if we say 1M people are currently infected but asymptomatic and the conversion rate from infected to requiring hospitalization is 2% that means 20,000 hiting the hospital systems within a matter of days. If the infection volume is 5M at the same conversion rate its 50,000. If its 1M but a conversion rate of 20% we're talking 200,000.

 So how spread the infection is and what the conversion to hospitalization rate is is critical to whether the US can handle it. And I don't think we really have any idea right now regardless of what the OH health director says.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 13, 2020, 09:12:48 AM
I think the long incubation period complicates the math. If she is correct, the majority or all of those 100K may be asymptomatic right now and if they all become symptomatic around the same time that is pretty problematic (theoretically at 1% fatality that means at least 1,000 critical patients within days of each other)

What I can't get a sense of with stories out of China from a couple of weeks ago and Italy now, how many of the deaths are infrastructure based(the overwhelming of) and how many are "inevitable" because of the disease.

The next 10 days will be interesting because if we say 1M people are currently infected but asymptomatic and the conversion rate from infected to requiring hospitalization is 2% that means 20,000 hiting the hospital systems within a matter of days. If the infection volume is 5M at the same conversion rate its 50,000. If its 1M but a conversion rate of 20% we're talking 200,000.

 So how spread the infection is and what the conversion to hospitalization rate is is critical to whether the US can handle it. And I don't think we really have any idea right now regardless of what the OH health director says.

The individual from Ohio's numbers are criminally inaccurate.

But, I can take a stab at the numbers out of Italy and China (disclosure, I am using conjecture here). Particularly in  China. In Wuhan death rates were comparable to those in Italy, 5-8% fatality rates. Largely dominated by infrastructure. In the rest of China, infrastructure wasn't stressed and the fatality rates were around 0.7%

These will likely represent the upper and lower bounds depending on how much infrastructure is stressed. The lower bound likely drops to 0.5%, which we can estimate from places like Germany that have had no stress on their system yet, but a large number of cases.

I also think the China numbers are accurate. They were going door to door mandatorily testing everyone, regardless of symptoms. They may have missed some cases, but likely on the order of 10% of the total reported cases, so the denominator there is likely reasonably accurate.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: TSmith34 on March 13, 2020, 09:16:38 AM
I think the long incubation period complicates the math. If she is correct, the majority or all of those 100K may be asymptomatic right now and if they all become symptomatic around the same time that is pretty problematic (theoretically at 1% fatality that means at least 1,000 critical patients within days of each other)
Indeed, I was going to say something similar.  Because of the lag between contracting it and showing symptoms, we have no idea what the real number is.  Hers might very well be high, but the actual number is unquestionably much, much higher than have been diagnosed.  Which makes our lack of testing such a clusterunnatural carnal knowledge.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 13, 2020, 09:24:53 AM
...disclosure, I am using conjecture here...

My biggest beef with the statement from the Director of ODH is that she didn't include any sort of similar qualifying language. She very definitively stated that at least 100k are carrying the virus in Ohio today. I find that concerning from the State's top public health official.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 13, 2020, 09:28:37 AM
In light of recent events, it's kind of interesting to look back over the early pages of this thread and see some of the hot takes...including my own.


To be fair to yourself and most everyone else, we have been through pandemic scares several times over the past 20-30 years, so it was natural for the "here we go again" attitude to take hold. Part of that is based on real-life experience, and part on wishful thinking (the "bad things like car accidents and cancer happen to other people, but not me" attitude). And hopeful attitudes like that are part of what help us get from one day to the next. After all, if we treated every possible pandemic (H1N1, SARS, MERS, Ebola) the way we have learned to treat this one, we would be so wound up in anxiety that we'd never get anything done.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 13, 2020, 09:29:11 AM
Because of the lag between contracting it and showing symptoms, we have no idea what the real number is.  Hers might very well be high, but the actual number is unquestionably much, much higher than have been diagnosed. 

I agree completely. Here is a disturbing article (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/its-just-everywhere-already-how-delays-in-testing-set-back-the-us-coronavirus-response/ar-BB110Ziq?ocid=se2) about how bureaucracy and red-tape slowed testing in Washington.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: skianth16 on March 13, 2020, 09:35:52 AM
I think the long incubation period complicates the math. If she is correct, the majority or all of those 100K may be asymptomatic right now and if they all become symptomatic around the same time that is pretty problematic (theoretically at 1% fatality that means at least 1,000 critical patients within days of each other)

What I can't get a sense of with stories out of China from a couple of weeks ago and Italy now, how many of the deaths are infrastructure based(the overwhelming of) and how many are "inevitable" because of the disease.

The next 10 days will be interesting because if we say 1M people are currently infected but asymptomatic and the conversion rate from infected to requiring hospitalization is 2% that means 20,000 hiting the hospital systems within a matter of days. If the infection volume is 5M at the same conversion rate its 50,000. If its 1M but a conversion rate of 20% we're talking 200,000.

 So how spread the infection is and what the conversion to hospitalization rate is is critical to whether the US can handle it. And I don't think we really have any idea right now regardless of what the OH health director says.

I still have a hard time thinking that the 1% figure is supported by what we've seen in other countries. Even in the Hubei province where this all started, the reported cases didn't even come close to 1% of the population. The province is about 55 million in population, and even if every reported case in China came from that area (which is obviously an overstatement) that would still only be about 0.2% of the population there.

And if the assumption that confirmed cases isn't really representative of actual cases due to people not showing symptoms or just not getting tested, then I would find that to be pretty reassuring. Ohio has 4 or 5 confirmed cases so far, but the assumption is that a significantly higher number are infected just not confirmed. So let's use Hubei again and assume that 50x or 100x more people were sick than were actually confirmed (conservative compared to Ohio). That's great, right? That significantly lowers the hospitalization and mortality rates.

In all the numbers, the one thing I keep coming back to is that the assumptions being made here in the US are substantially higher than what we've seen globally so far. 1% of Ohio being infected would represent a doubling of all cases globally. Why would Ohio be so much more susceptible to the virus than the rest of the world?

And I'll add the note here that I'm not trying to say I don't believe the experts or that I think this is a fake panic. I just have trouble making sense of the estimates when they seem so different from what we're actually seeing so far. A lot of this is just "thinking out loud" to see if someone can help me understand better or provide another way of thinking.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 13, 2020, 09:37:14 AM
Although I have previously expressed my opinion that CDC.gov is the gold standard for info on the covid-19 situation, I wanted to alert folks to another good source. The NYTimes is providing FREE ACCESS (even for non-subscribers) to its news about the pandemic. Though some may disagree, my experience has been that the NYT is better than most media outlets as providing fact-based, non-sensationalized journalism.

https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/coronavirus?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 13, 2020, 09:51:03 AM
I agree completely. Here is a disturbing article (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/its-just-everywhere-already-how-delays-in-testing-set-back-the-us-coronavirus-response/ar-BB110Ziq?ocid=se2) about how bureaucracy and red-tape slowed testing in Washington.


Legitimate concerns about the FDA here.

But FWIW, the FDA is in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" position. If it had given the UW lab the go-ahead without "normal" approval and the error rate turned out to be high (whether false positives or false negatives), they would have been crucified for inappropriately allowing clinical testing through a research lab.

The FDA has reason to be worried about toeing the line. In another of its functions (drug approval), it constantly walks a line between getting drugs to market faster (at the urging of the pharmaceutical industry, and often patient advocacy groups desperate for cures), vs taking more time to be relatively sure they provide more benefit than harm. And they have been stung many times over the years for letting a drug get to market too quickly, only to have to rescind its approval after it hurt or killed many people. For some good examples, look up Accutane, Baycol, Bextra, Nuplazid and Uloric.

Like I said, damned if they do, damned if they don't.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 13, 2020, 09:56:58 AM

Legitimate concerns about the FDA here.

But FWIW, the FDA is in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" position. If it had given the UW lab the go-ahead without "normal" approval and the error rate turned out to be high (whether false positives or false negatives), they would have been crucified for inappropriately allowing clinical testing through a research lab.

The FDA has reason to be worried about toeing the line. In another of its functions (drug approval), it constantly walks a line between getting drugs to market faster (at the urging of the pharmaceutical industry, and often patient advocacy groups desperate for cures), vs taking more time to be relatively sure they provide more benefit than harm. And they have been stung many times over the years for letting a drug get to market too quickly, only to have to rescind its approval after it hurt or killed many people. For some good examples, look up Accutane, Baycol, Bextra, Nuplazid and Uloric.

Like I said, damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Very true. None of this is easy.

Along similar lines...

Listening to a podcast earlier this week with a leading infectious disease expert. Essentially he said, "developing a vaccine for this is simple...we could do that over night. Making sure it is effective and safe takes time, and there really is no way to speed that up too much."

In case anyone is interested.  Head to 1:30:15 for specific discussion.

In case anyone is interested (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw).
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu_hilltopper on March 13, 2020, 09:58:35 AM
As an aside .. the UK health minister said they have 459 cases, but they believe they are off by a factor of 10-20x.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 13, 2020, 10:37:23 AM
I see the ODH Director's statement that 100,000 have it in Ohio is getting some national attention.  While I do admit to having some doubts about her statement - and particularly how definitively she presented it - I also note that if she's correct that he existence of seeing community spread means that "at least 1%, at the very least 1% of our population" is carrying the virus..." then the fatality rate is not nearly as high as many of the estimates. By her theory, somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.3 million have been infected in the US. We have had 36 deaths in the US. If 1% of the country is already infected, that would make the mortality rate very, very low -- 0.00001. So, something obviously is off. I suspect she's very high. (*Edited: I suspect her estimate is very high.) Data from everywhere else this has spread shows that there is a death rate considerably higher than the common flu. It would appear that it's somewhere between 0.7% (which is still considerably higher than the flu) and 2 or 3%.  Any estimate of total cases that would suggest a mortality rate that is much lower than the flu is, presumably, a bit off.

Problem with that sort of reasoning is people don't die the second they get the disease.  Its progresses over a week or two.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 13, 2020, 10:39:43 AM
As an aside .. the UK health minister said they have 459 cases, but they believe they are off by a factor of 10-20x.

If you told me that Ohio has 50-100 cases (10-20x what is reported), I wouldn't bat an eyelash and would suspect you were low. Hell, if you told me Ohio has 500-1000 cases, I wouldn't be overly critical of that estimate. As I've said already, what surprised me was the State's top health official stating definitively that we are off by a factor of 20,000x.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: forgetful on March 13, 2020, 10:44:22 AM
For those looking for other sites tracking data. This one is pretty good.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

The link is specifically for incubation period, but at the top you can access a lot of other data, including country by country specific data.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 13, 2020, 10:46:05 AM
Problem with that sort of reasoning is people don't die the second they get the disease.  Its progresses over a week or two.

Of course. But give it a week or two. Do you honestly believe their will be 1,000 deaths in Ohio within "a week or two"? I don't.  Good Lord, I certainly hope not. By all accounts, Italy - with a population of 60 million - is a mess right now and they have just barely over 1,000 deaths as of today.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 13, 2020, 10:54:02 AM

To be fair to yourself and most everyone else, we have been through pandemic scares several times over the past 20-30 years, so it was natural for the "here we go again" attitude to take hold. Part of that is based on real-life experience, and part on wishful thinking (the "bad things like car accidents and cancer happen to other people, but not me" attitude). And hopeful attitudes like that are part of what help us get from one day to the next. After all, if we treated every possible pandemic (H1N1, SARS, MERS, Ebola) the way we have learned to treat this one, we would be so wound up in anxiety that we'd never get anything done.

I would also add that this occurring in an election year made things much worse IMO. The political and media based finger pointing and spinning has really slowed the public's ability to understand what is going on and react in a collaborative way. Even know every story has a who's to blame, what went wrong, etc....and I know its fantastical think but I would love to see a refocus on here and now, what do we need to do now and leave the recriminations until the worst is passed.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Jockey on March 13, 2020, 11:15:54 AM
I would also add that this occurring in an election year made things much worse IMO. The political and media based finger pointing and spinning has really slowed the public's ability to understand what is going on and react in a collaborative way. Even know every story has a who's to blame, what went wrong, etc....and I know its fantastical think but I would love to see a refocus on here and now, what do we need to do now and leave the recriminations until the worst is passed.

This is one of those rare times that I disagree with you, Eng, but, sad to say, finger pointing is absolutely necessary. We have zero leadership in this crisis and have reacted to it worse than every single industrialized country in the world.

Tests are "available" for anyone who wants one, yet people cannot get tested. And as if that isn't bad enough, the leadership has been the single biggest reason for the Stock Market crash with their lies and incompetence.

We need to finger-point more as that seems to be the ONLY way for our leaders to be goaded into taking even the most basics actions.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 13, 2020, 11:20:48 AM
I have to say this guy has really stepped up.

 https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/487425-top-health-official-fauci-coronavirus-crisis-could-last-8-weeks (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/487425-top-health-official-fauci-coronavirus-crisis-could-last-8-weeks)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 13, 2020, 11:25:19 AM
Of course. But give it a week or two. Do you honestly believe their will be 1,000 deaths in Ohio within "a week or two"? I don't.  Good Lord, I certainly hope not. By all accounts, Italy - with a population of 60 million - is a mess right now and they have just barely over 1,000 deaths as of today.

I hope not too.  Lockdown would give me some additional confidence.  Not just canceled schools.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: mu03eng on March 13, 2020, 11:28:51 AM
This is one of those rare times that I disagree with you, Eng, but, sad to say, finger pointing is absolutely necessary. We have zero leadership in this crisis and have reacted to it worse than every single industrialized country in the world.

Tests are "available" for anyone who wants one, yet people cannot get tested. And as if that isn't bad enough, the leadership has been the single biggest reason for the Stock Market crash with their lies and incompetence.

We need to finger-point more as that seems to be the ONLY way for our leaders to be goaded into taking even the most basics actions.

It's a fair argument to make, and while I agree we have a systemic leadership failure I also no that dude up top has preconditioned folks to disbelieve info from the media and any appearance of politicization gives that crackpot judo move more power. Deal in facts, predictions, and gaps....leave the recriminations for a time when we can actually focus on them. Just my opinion.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: shoothoops on March 13, 2020, 11:41:27 AM
Chinese billionaire Jack Ma donating 500,000 test kits to U.S. and over 1 million masks. Previously U.S. had 14k test kits. (He's also donating to other countries)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Coleman on March 13, 2020, 11:49:53 AM
Chinese billionaire Jack Ma donating 500,000 test kits to U.S. and over 1 million masks. Previously U.S. had 14k test kits. (He's also donating to other countries)

Nice!
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: lawdog77 on March 13, 2020, 11:56:14 AM
Rumor is Trump is going to order a national shutdown today at a press conference at 3.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Retire0 on March 13, 2020, 12:00:51 PM
My little school districts in northern, rural Illinois are shutting down.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Pakuni on March 13, 2020, 12:02:34 PM
Rumor is Trump is going to order a national shutdown today at a press conference at 3.

Doesn't seem to be the case.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/politics/donald-trump-emergency/index.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Pakuni on March 13, 2020, 12:03:39 PM
My little school districts in northern, rural Illinois are shutting down.

Most of suburban school districts are shutting down, as are all Archdiocese of Chicago schools.
I imagine they'll all be closed by the end of the day.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Chili on March 13, 2020, 12:06:33 PM
Most of suburban school districts are shutting down, as are all Archdiocese of Chicago schools.
I imagine they'll all be closed by the end of the day.

CTU is demanding CPS shutdown.

LA school district just shut down.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 13, 2020, 12:07:03 PM
My wife works in the Rochester Public Schools, and learned yesterday that they are having a mandatory all-staff meeting today after school. Hmmmm...
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Benny B on March 13, 2020, 12:29:54 PM
I don't know if it's a sense of invincibility, willful ignorance or just plain ol' American stupidity, but a lot of people have their heads in the sand on this... honestly, very few Americans understand what is actually going on here, and it has nothing to do with politics, the media, etc.  People are going to read and believe whoever or whatever suits them, but there are certain Covid-19 facts that are not in dispute here:

1) The incubation period seems to average ~5 days but the range is 2 to 14 days.  IOW, you could be infected for up to two weeks and not even know it.
2) Some people who are infected are asymptomatic.
3) The virus can be shed by people who are asymptomatic, i.e. you can be infected via exposure to someone who is asymptomatic.
4) The virus does not immediately deactivate upon coming in contact with a non-host surface.

So think about how many people you came into contact with 5 days ago, and how many people with whom you've come into contact since then.  Then think about all of the people those people came into contact.  And those people and those people.

On average, do we come into contact with 20 people/day?  Fifty?  Five?  One?

As a hypothetical, I was at the Bucks game last week... I probably came within six feet of at least 200 people, maybe more.  I was fortunate enough to have a pass to the BMO Club, so I also was touching serving spoons at the buffet (that we also being touched by others), so add another 200-300 that I might have "touched."  So if just one out of those 500 were infected, there's a pretty good chance I was exposed to the virus.  I take it home, and now 9 days later, I start exhibiting symptoms, so I go into self-quarantine... but in the last 9 days: I also went to mass, and even though there was no contact, I was still within six feet of 5 other people.  But then my three kids, who are now asymptomatic carriers have taken it to school and exposed another 20 kids each directly, and maybe another 50 (total) through surface touching.  Don't forget my son's volleyball game, so another 10-15 there as well.  And then there's my wife, also an asymptomatic carrier by now, who rides the Metra every day... conservatively, let's say that's another 500, but then 10% of her coworkers are exposed, so another 40.

In the 9 days between infection and symptoms, my family and I have potentially exposed - but not necessarily infected - almost 700 people.  The question is: how many of those 700 will be infected?  Even if it's 5%, that's still 35 people... each of whom will now spread the virus - asymptomatically - for the next five days to another 35 people.  And then to another 35 people in five days, etc.  The math goes like this:

Day 1: Just Benny
Day 9: 35
Day 14: 1,225
Day 19: 42,875
Day 24: 1,500,625

In just over three weeks, 1.5M have been infected by me, of which 1,457,750 aren't exhibiting any symptoms.  But let's say I'm off by a factor of 10x... that's still 145,000. 

Now, if I was at the Bucks game on 2/19 instead... today is Day 24.  The population of Ohio is 11.6M and 1% of that is 116,000 people.

True?  No.

Plausible?  Yes.  And that's where the problem lies... most people don't quite understand what we could be facing here.



Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 13, 2020, 12:31:07 PM
I hope not too.  Lockdown would give me some additional confidence.  Not just canceled schools.

I don't intend to be argumentative here, but I note that you didn't answer the question. While I believe you have, at times, moved closer to the panic line than I think is necessary, I give you genuine and sincere respect for standing your ground more than a month ago when a lot of people - including me - thought this was no big deal. I was wrong; you were right. But that doesn't mean that every dire pronouncement is correct. I personally think that the statement that there are 100,000 cases in Ohio at this time is incorrect and is a little irresponsible. If I'm wrong - and that is certainly possible - I'll admit it. And that doesn't mean there won't be 100,000 people infected in Ohio before this is all said and done.
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: Eldon on March 13, 2020, 12:31:27 PM
Notes from a recent (3/10) UCSF panel:

•   Top takeaways
o   At this point, we are past containment.  Containment is basically futile.  Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US. 
o   Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak.  In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers.  And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.
o   How many in the community already have the virus?  No one knows.
o   We are moving from containment to care. 
o   We in the US are currently where Italy was a week ago.  We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
o   40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months.  After that level you can start to get herd immunity.  Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
o   [We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die.  The panelists did not disagree with our estimate.  This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year.  Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected.  With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.] 
   The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
   This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.
o   The death rate varies hugely by age.  Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%.  [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.] 
o   Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
o   I can only tell you two things definitively.  Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better.  And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least.  Our lives are going to look different for the next year.
 
•   What should we do now?  What are you doing for your family?
o   Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic.  We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms.  We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).
o   How long does the virus last?
   On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type (maybe a few days) but still no consensus on this
   The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents:  bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.
o   Avoid concerts, movies, crowded places.
o   We have cancelled business travel. 
o   Do the basic hygiene, eg hand washing and avoiding touching face.
o   Stockpile your critical prescription medications.  Many pharma supply chains run through China.  Pharma companies usually hold 2-3 months of raw materials, so may run out given the disruption in China’s manufacturing.
o   Pneumonia shot might be helpful.  Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
o   Get a flu shot next fall.  Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
o   We would say “Anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical”.  CDC toyed with idea of saying anyone over 60 not travel on commercial airlines.
o   We at UCSF are moving our “at-risk” parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes.  Then are not letting them out of the house.  The other members of the family are washing hands the moment they come in.
o   Three routes of infection
   Hand to mouth / face
   Aerosol transmission
   Fecal oral route
 
 
•   What if someone is sick?
o   If someone gets sick, have them stay home and socially isolate.  There is very little you can do at a hospital that you couldn’t do at home.  Most cases are mild.  But if they are old or have lung or cardio-vascular problems, read on.
o   If someone gets quite sick who is old (70+) or with lung or cardio-vascular problems, take them to the ER.
o   There is no accepted treatment for COVID-19.  The hospital will give supportive care (eg IV fluids, oxygen) to help you stay alive while your body fights the disease.  ie to prevent sepsis.
o   If someone gets sick who is high risk (eg is both old and has lung/cardio-vascular problems), you can try to get them enrolled for “compassionate use" of Remdesivir, a drug that is in clinical trial at San Francisco General and UCSF, and in China.  Need to find a doc there in order to ask to enroll.  Remdesivir is an anti-viral from Gilead that showed effectiveness against MERS in primates and is being tried against COVID-19.  If the trials succeed it might be available for next winter as production scales up far faster for drugs than for vaccines.  [More I found online.]
o   Why is the fatality rate much higher for older adults?
   Your immune system declines past age 50
   Fatality rate tracks closely with “co-morbidity”, ie the presence of other conditions that compromise the patient’s hearth, especially respiratory or cardio-vascular illness.  These conditions are higher in older adults.   
   Risk of pneumonia is higher in older adults. 
 
•   What about testing to know if someone has COVID-19? 
o   Bottom line, there is not enough testing capacity to be broadly useful.  Here’s why.
o   Currently, there is no way to determine what a person has other than a PCR test.  No other test can yet distinguish "COVID-19 from flu or from the other dozen respiratory bugs that are circulating”.
o   A Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test can detect COVID-19’s RNA.  However they still don’t have confidence in the test’s specificity, ie they don’t know the rate of false negatives.
o   The PCR test requires kits with reagents and requires clinical labs to process the kits.
o   While the kits are becoming available, the lab capacity is not growing. 
o   The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day.  For the nation.
o   Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.”  And certification.   ie it won’t happen soon.
o   UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits.  But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day.  And are not clinically certified.
o   Novel test methods are on the horizon, but not here now and won’t be at any scale to be useful for the present danger.
 
•   How well is society preparing for the impact?
o   Local hospitals are adding capacity as we speak.  UCSF’s Parnassus campus has erected “triage tents” in a parking lot.  They have converted a ward to “negative pressure” which is needed to contain the virus.  They are considering re-opening the shuttered Mt Zion facility.
o   If COVID-19 affected children then we would be seeing mass departures of families from cities.  But thankfully now we know that kids are not affected.
o   School closures are one the biggest societal impacts.  We need to be thoughtful before we close schools, especially elementary schools because of the knock-on effects.  If elementary kids are not in school then some hospital staff can’t come to work, which decreases hospital capacity at a time of surging demand for hospital services. 
o   Public Health systems are prepared to deal with short-term outbreaks that last for weeks, like an outbreak of meningitis.  They do not have the capacity to sustain for outbreaks that last for months.  Other solutions will have to be found.
o   What will we do to handle behavior changes that can last for months?
   Many employees will need to make accommodations for elderly parents and those with underlying conditions and immune-suppressed.
   Kids home due to school closures
o   [Dr. DeRisi had to leave the meeting for a call with the governor’s office.  When he returned we asked what the call covered.]  The epidemiological models the state is using to track and trigger action.  The state is planning at what point they will take certain actions.  ie what will trigger an order to cease any gatherings of over 1000 people. 
 
•   Where do you find reliable news?
o   The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site.   Which posts daily updates.  The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email.  [I tried and the page times out due to high demand.  After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.] 
o   The New York Times is good on scientific accuracy.
 
 
•   Observations on China
o   Unlike during SARS, China’s scientists are publishing openly and accurately on COVID-19. 
o   While China’s early reports on incidence were clearly low, that seems to trace to their data management systems being overwhelmed, not to any bad intent.
o   Wuhan has 4.3 beds per thousand while US has 2.8 beds per thousand.  Wuhan built 2 additional hospitals in 2 weeks.  Even so, most patients were sent to gymnasiums to sleep on cots.
o   Early on no one had info on COVID-19.  So China reacted in a way unique modern history, except in wartime. 
 
•   Every few years there seems another:  SARS, Ebola, MERS, H1N1, COVID-19.  Growing strains of antibiotic resistant bacteria.  Are we in the twilight of a century of medicine’s great triumph over infectious disease?
o   "We’ve been in a back and forth battle against viruses for a million years." 
o   But it would sure help if every country would shut down their wet markets. 
o   As with many things, the worst impact of COVID-19 will likely be in the countries with the least resources, eg Africa.  See article on Wired magazine on sequencing of virus from Cambodia.


https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/

Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: lawdog77 on March 13, 2020, 12:36:16 PM
Its species jumping viruses/diseases.

Is this the next one?
https://www.cdc.gov/prions/cwd/index.html (https://www.cdc.gov/prions/cwd/index.html)
Title: Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 13, 2020, 12:43:42 PM
I don't know if it's a sense of invincibility, willful ignorance or just plain ol' American stupidity, but a lot of people have their heads in the sand on this... honestly, very few Americans understand what is actually going on here, and it has nothing to do with politics, the media, etc.  People are going to read and believe whoever or whatever suits them, but there are certain Covid-19 facts that are not in dispute here:

1) The incubation period seems to average ~5 days but the range is 2 to 14 days.  IOW, you could be infected for up to two weeks and not even know it.
2) Some people who are infected are asymptomatic.
3) The virus can be shed by people who are asymptomatic, i.e. you can be infected via exposure to someone who is asymptomatic.
4) The virus does not immediately deactivate upon coming in contact with a non-host surface.

So think about how many people you came into contact with 5 days ago, and how many people with whom you've come into contact since then.  Then think about all of the people those people came into contact.  And those people and those people.

On average, do we come into contact with 20 people/day?  Fifty?  Five?  One?

As a hypothetical, I was at the Bucks game last week... I probably came within six feet of at least 200 people, maybe more.  I was fortunate enough to have a pass to the BMO Club, so I also was touching serving spoons at the buffet (that we also being touched by others), so add another 200-300 that I might have "touched."  So if just one out of those 500 were infected, there's a pretty good chance I was exposed to the virus.  I take it home, and now 9 days later, I start exhibiting symptoms, so I go into self-quarantine... but in the last 9 days: I also went to mass, and even though there was no contact, I was still within six feet of 5 other people.  But then my three kids, who are now asymptomatic carriers have taken it to school and exposed another 20 kids each directly, and maybe another 50 (total) through surface touching.  Don't forget my son's volleyball game, so another 10-15 there as well.  And then there's my wife, also an asymptomatic carrier by now, who rides the Metra every day... conservatively, let's say that's another 500, but then 10% of her coworkers are exposed, so another 40.

In the 9 days between infection and symptoms, my family and I have potentially exposed - but not necessarily infected - almost 700 people.  The question is: how many of those 700 will be infected?  Even if it's 5%, that's still 35 people... each of whom will now spread the virus - asymptomatically - for the next five days to another 35 people.  And then to another 35 people in five days, etc.  The math goes like this:

Day 1: Just Benny
Day 9: 35
Day 14: 1,225
Day 19: 42,875
Day 24: 1,500,625

In just over three weeks, 1.5M have been infected by me, of which 1,457,750 aren't exhibiting any symptoms.  But let's say I'm off by a factor of 10x... that's still 145,000. 

Now, if I was at the Bucks game on 2/19 instead... today is Day 24.  The population of Ohio is 11.6M and 1% of that is 116,000 people.

True?  No.

Plausible?  Yes.  And that's where the problem lies... most people don't quite understand what we could be facing here.