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Author Topic: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")  (Read 1086218 times)

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #900 on: March 12, 2020, 07:53:54 PM »
Ouch.  So, do us a favor and have your pillow partner follow up with whoever sent her that info, tell them it's false and, yadda yadda, stop spreading.

Well it was a doctor who sent it to her to be fair. 

reinko

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #901 on: March 12, 2020, 07:55:29 PM »
An idea that has been floated is drive ups at schools.  You get 4 meals worth and can come back every other day.  How the kid gets to the school is probably trickier, but I imagine that a lot of the parents that have problems providing food for kids will also be out of work soon as well.
I live in Montgomery County in Maryland, and they have closed schools for at least 2 weeks, and have already announced plans for pick up meals for families.

forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #902 on: March 12, 2020, 08:00:50 PM »
Well it was a doctor who sent it to her to be fair.

Doctors are not much different than anyone else here. The average doctor does not have much training in this arena, if any at all.

Scientists don't have enough data on this virus to make any valid conclusions. So there is a lot of false information circulating from even people that are supposed to be "respected sources".


Dr. Blackheart

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #903 on: March 12, 2020, 08:05:16 PM »
Doctors are not much different than anyone else here. The average doctor does not have much training in this arena, if any at all.

Scientists don't have enough data on this virus to make any valid conclusions. So there is a lot of false information circulating from even people that are supposed to be "respected sources".

So true. Staying hydrated with a virus and doing a breath check isn't wrong...it's just not right with this SOB either as this evolves.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 08:11:22 PM by Dr. Blackheart »

mu_hilltopper

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #904 on: March 12, 2020, 08:35:38 PM »
Not official yet, but it sounds like many Milwaukee area school districts will be closing starting on Monday. 

Teachers are preparing packets of "work" for kids to deliver tomorrow.

rocket surgeon

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #905 on: March 12, 2020, 09:10:33 PM »
Doctors are not much different than anyone else here. The average doctor does not have much training in this arena, if any at all.

Scientists don't have enough data on this virus to make any valid conclusions. So there is a lot of false information circulating from even people that are supposed to be "respected sources".

let's not over simplify this forget.  i think most in the biological/medical field have quite a bit more understanding of this than "anyone else here".  that is not saying we are better than anyone else though.  it's just that we have an educational background/foundation like understanding a foreign language.  once you know how microbio, proteins, enzymes, osmosis, solubilities, rna, dna, yadda yadda...now, when it starts getting really intricate, with pharmaceuticals for example.  that's when i am not bashful at all about calling a pharmacist.  my little brother has been a pharmacist at merriter hospital in direct patient care for 25 years-solid!  for this, an epidemiologist is worth his weight.  otherwise opinions can be like...everyone has one
don't...don't don't don't don't

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #906 on: March 12, 2020, 09:14:35 PM »
Not official yet, but it sounds like many Milwaukee area school districts will be closing starting on Monday. 

Teachers are preparing packets of "work" for kids to deliver tomorrow.

I have a first person account of a Dane county school where the teachers are learning how to teach online.

skianth16

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #907 on: March 12, 2020, 10:49:33 PM »
Read Angela Merkel's statements from earlier today. An actual leader talking to her citizens like adults with scientific facts. Ohio is doing what the US should be doing. Social distancing is the answer but Americans are too set in liberty and freedom to believe it. It's the one of negative effects of our society is that we believe in ourselves too much and don't follow rules or care for others in our community.

Didn't Merkel say that 70% of the population would be infected? What science is that based on?

skianth16

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #908 on: March 12, 2020, 10:52:19 PM »
I haven't read every page, so this may have been posted already, but I think it's worth sharing regardless. Simple, effective steps to help prevent the spread are outlined. There's little panic, no sensational numbers, just basic advice.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2020/03/10/uw-madison-health-expert-has-advice-on-how-to-fight-coronavirus/5004659002/

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #909 on: March 12, 2020, 10:52:44 PM »
Didn't Merkel say that 70% of the population would be infected? What science is that based on?

Yeah, you dont want to follow the krauts on this one.

forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #910 on: March 12, 2020, 11:15:04 PM »
Didn't Merkel say that 70% of the population would be infected? What science is that based on?

She's predicting that 70% of the population will eventually be infected. Without controls that is what science predicts. Right now most science also says that we may slow the rate of infections, but we won't decrease the eventual total number infected.

I disagree with the latter aspect, but what she is claiming is consistent with the science.


skianth16

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #911 on: March 12, 2020, 11:24:45 PM »
Didn't Merkel say that 70% of the population would be infected? What science is that based on?

I'll answer my own question on this one. The article below helps explain some of the numbers that seem to be creating so much fear/panic/concern right now.

The way I understand this is that containing the virus may be extremely difficult, especially with so many unknowns regarding transmission and treatment. And if that does prove to be the case, the virus may become part of the annual cold and flu season. If this is the case, then sure, I can understand the idea of a majority of the population becoming infected.

But there seems to be a very important caveat to that message. There could be a possibility that you will be infected ***at some point in your life*** The message that seems to be coming through and that has been repeated often is that these high rates of infection are likely to occur all at once and soon.

If the high infection rate message coming from experts refers to the idea of a new cold and flu season developing over a number of years, this should be clarified by researchers and leaders. Panic might help to achieve the needed results in the short-term, but education is important for the long-term.

]https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/[url][/url]

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #912 on: March 13, 2020, 05:01:20 AM »
I'll answer my own question on this one. The article below helps explain some of the numbers that seem to be creating so much fear/panic/concern right now.

The way I understand this is that containing the virus may be extremely difficult, especially with so many unknowns regarding transmission and treatment. And if that does prove to be the case, the virus may become part of the annual cold and flu season. If this is the case, then sure, I can understand the idea of a majority of the population becoming infected.

But there seems to be a very important caveat to that message. There could be a possibility that you will be infected ***at some point in your life*** The message that seems to be coming through and that has been repeated often is that these high rates of infection are likely to occur all at once and soon.

If the high infection rate message coming from experts refers to the idea of a new cold and flu season developing over a number of years, this should be clarified by researchers and leaders. Panic might help to achieve the needed results in the short-term, but education is important for the long-term.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/[url]]]https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/[url][/url]

Its really reassuring to see that a lot of people's information and understanding is weeks behind.  That article is two and a half weeks old.  You know, back when Italy had a grand total of 229 cases.

You're going to get it, but the time to trust government responses, and not take precautions, and prepare is well passed.

Once you start reading a bit more, you'll probably agree.


Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #913 on: March 13, 2020, 06:56:03 AM »
Still feels extreme, a lot of kids depend on school meal programs, etc

My town has closed schools & is making box lunches available to kids -- I guess it is similar to what they do in the summer months. 

StillAWarrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #914 on: March 13, 2020, 07:36:45 AM »
I see the ODH Director's statement that 100,000 have it in Ohio is getting some national attention.  While I do admit to having some doubts about her statement - and particularly how definitively she presented it - I also note that if she's correct that he existence of seeing community spread means that "at least 1%, at the very least 1% of our population" is carrying the virus..." then the fatality rate is not nearly as high as many of the estimates. By her theory, somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.3 million have been infected in the US. We have had 36 deaths in the US. If 1% of the country is already infected, that would make the mortality rate very, very low -- 0.00001. So, something obviously is off. I suspect she's very high. (*Edited: I suspect her estimate is very high.) Data from everywhere else this has spread shows that there is a death rate considerably higher than the common flu. It would appear that it's somewhere between 0.7% (which is still considerably higher than the flu) and 2 or 3%.  Any estimate of total cases that would suggest a mortality rate that is much lower than the flu is, presumably, a bit off.
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StillAWarrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #915 on: March 13, 2020, 07:49:34 AM »
In light of recent events, it's kind of interesting to look back over the early pages of this thread and see some of the hot takes...including my own.


I guess it depends on what you mean by "concerned".  I am concerned that a lot of people are getting sick and probably many will die.  To me, that's just a natural human concern. I am not particularly concerned that this virus will have a significant impact in the United States. So, if you're asking about the first of those, then yes, I am concerned. If you're asking about the second (which, in my opinion, is what a lot of people are asking), then no, I'm not concerned.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 08:18:47 AM by StillAWarrior »
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lawdog77

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #916 on: March 13, 2020, 07:52:20 AM »
Yeah, you dont want to follow the krauts on this one.
not cool

skianth16

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #917 on: March 13, 2020, 08:43:21 AM »
Its really reassuring to see that a lot of people's information and understanding is weeks behind.  That article is two and a half weeks old.  You know, back when Italy had a grand total of 229 cases.

You're going to get it, but the time to trust government responses, and not take precautions, and prepare is well passed.

Once you start reading a bit more, you'll probably agree.

The information these scientists are working from isn't even always related to this particular virus. They're using historical information to help understand the current scenario and future scenarios better. Which is why it's still a very relevant article to help explain why some of the quoted infection rates are so high despite such low numbers today.

It's not like I'm wading through a stack of newspapers in date order here. I just found an article that very clearly helped to answer a question. And that question had nothing to do with appropriate responses, just an explanation for the exponential growth rates that don't make sense with just 120,000 cases globally.

If you want to disregard anything that's more than 72 hours old, that's your prerogative. But I would imagine a lot of people will find that link helpful, even if it's not up to your standards.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 08:52:16 AM by skianth16 »

forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #918 on: March 13, 2020, 08:48:50 AM »
Wonder why John Hopkins removed places like Iran, Italy, Spain, Germany, and others, from their list and tracking numbers.

mu03eng

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #919 on: March 13, 2020, 08:58:57 AM »
I see the ODH Director's statement that 100,000 have it in Ohio is getting some national attention.  While I do admit to having some doubts about her statement - and particularly how definitively she presented it - I also note that if she's correct that he existence of seeing community spread means that "at least 1%, at the very least 1% of our population" is carrying the virus..." then the fatality rate is not nearly as high as many of the estimates. By her theory, somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.3 million have been infected in the US. We have had 36 deaths in the US. If 1% of the country is already infected, that would make the mortality rate very, very low -- 0.00001. So, something obviously is off. I suspect she's very high. (*Edited: I suspect her estimate is very high.) Data from everywhere else this has spread shows that there is a death rate considerably higher than the common flu. It would appear that it's somewhere between 0.7% (which is still considerably higher than the flu) and 2 or 3%.  Any estimate of total cases that would suggest a mortality rate that is much lower than the flu is, presumably, a bit off.

I think the long incubation period complicates the math. If she is correct, the majority or all of those 100K may be asymptomatic right now and if they all become symptomatic around the same time that is pretty problematic (theoretically at 1% fatality that means at least 1,000 critical patients within days of each other)

What I can't get a sense of with stories out of China from a couple of weeks ago and Italy now, how many of the deaths are infrastructure based(the overwhelming of) and how many are "inevitable" because of the disease.

The next 10 days will be interesting because if we say 1M people are currently infected but asymptomatic and the conversion rate from infected to requiring hospitalization is 2% that means 20,000 hiting the hospital systems within a matter of days. If the infection volume is 5M at the same conversion rate its 50,000. If its 1M but a conversion rate of 20% we're talking 200,000.

 So how spread the infection is and what the conversion to hospitalization rate is is critical to whether the US can handle it. And I don't think we really have any idea right now regardless of what the OH health director says.
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forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #920 on: March 13, 2020, 09:12:48 AM »
I think the long incubation period complicates the math. If she is correct, the majority or all of those 100K may be asymptomatic right now and if they all become symptomatic around the same time that is pretty problematic (theoretically at 1% fatality that means at least 1,000 critical patients within days of each other)

What I can't get a sense of with stories out of China from a couple of weeks ago and Italy now, how many of the deaths are infrastructure based(the overwhelming of) and how many are "inevitable" because of the disease.

The next 10 days will be interesting because if we say 1M people are currently infected but asymptomatic and the conversion rate from infected to requiring hospitalization is 2% that means 20,000 hiting the hospital systems within a matter of days. If the infection volume is 5M at the same conversion rate its 50,000. If its 1M but a conversion rate of 20% we're talking 200,000.

 So how spread the infection is and what the conversion to hospitalization rate is is critical to whether the US can handle it. And I don't think we really have any idea right now regardless of what the OH health director says.

The individual from Ohio's numbers are criminally inaccurate.

But, I can take a stab at the numbers out of Italy and China (disclosure, I am using conjecture here). Particularly in  China. In Wuhan death rates were comparable to those in Italy, 5-8% fatality rates. Largely dominated by infrastructure. In the rest of China, infrastructure wasn't stressed and the fatality rates were around 0.7%

These will likely represent the upper and lower bounds depending on how much infrastructure is stressed. The lower bound likely drops to 0.5%, which we can estimate from places like Germany that have had no stress on their system yet, but a large number of cases.

I also think the China numbers are accurate. They were going door to door mandatorily testing everyone, regardless of symptoms. They may have missed some cases, but likely on the order of 10% of the total reported cases, so the denominator there is likely reasonably accurate.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #921 on: March 13, 2020, 09:16:38 AM »
I think the long incubation period complicates the math. If she is correct, the majority or all of those 100K may be asymptomatic right now and if they all become symptomatic around the same time that is pretty problematic (theoretically at 1% fatality that means at least 1,000 critical patients within days of each other)
Indeed, I was going to say something similar.  Because of the lag between contracting it and showing symptoms, we have no idea what the real number is.  Hers might very well be high, but the actual number is unquestionably much, much higher than have been diagnosed.  Which makes our lack of testing such a clusterunnatural carnal knowledge.
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StillAWarrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #922 on: March 13, 2020, 09:24:53 AM »
...disclosure, I am using conjecture here...

My biggest beef with the statement from the Director of ODH is that she didn't include any sort of similar qualifying language. She very definitively stated that at least 100k are carrying the virus in Ohio today. I find that concerning from the State's top public health official.
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GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #923 on: March 13, 2020, 09:28:37 AM »
In light of recent events, it's kind of interesting to look back over the early pages of this thread and see some of the hot takes...including my own.


To be fair to yourself and most everyone else, we have been through pandemic scares several times over the past 20-30 years, so it was natural for the "here we go again" attitude to take hold. Part of that is based on real-life experience, and part on wishful thinking (the "bad things like car accidents and cancer happen to other people, but not me" attitude). And hopeful attitudes like that are part of what help us get from one day to the next. After all, if we treated every possible pandemic (H1N1, SARS, MERS, Ebola) the way we have learned to treat this one, we would be so wound up in anxiety that we'd never get anything done.

StillAWarrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #924 on: March 13, 2020, 09:29:11 AM »
Because of the lag between contracting it and showing symptoms, we have no idea what the real number is.  Hers might very well be high, but the actual number is unquestionably much, much higher than have been diagnosed. 

I agree completely. Here is a disturbing article about how bureaucracy and red-tape slowed testing in Washington.
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