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Author Topic: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")  (Read 1087837 times)

Goose

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #250 on: February 26, 2020, 10:37:08 AM »
I believe the economic fallout is going to be the biggest part of the story. I have zero idea on how serious the virus is, but know that it is already causing major economic headaches. While I hope it is remembered like SARS, I am hoping the economic damage is not too severe.

mu03eng

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #251 on: February 26, 2020, 10:42:41 AM »
The big thing for me is that the death count is neither higher nor significant within non-at risk populations than any other virus out there. It may turn out to be more which is why you have to stay on top of it but it certainly doesn't rise to some sort of impact on my daily life at this point other than from a supply chain standpoint.

Here's where I think we have to find a better way to cover these types of things.....obviously the right information and details about Covid-19 is going to be slow moving, it is the nature of virology specifically and science generally, but the cadence of news coverage moves much faster than that so the content machine must be fed resulting in overstated or conflicting information. This is further exacerbated by the fact that these viruses are going to emerge in what I would term "information restricted" locations. Either due to infrastructure (developing or war torn countries like Syria, Congo, etc) or politically repressive countries (ie Iran, China, etc) useful information is not made available to where it can be consumed which leads to news coverage trying to fill the gaps with problematic/unverified information which leads to further misinformation.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

mu03eng

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #252 on: February 26, 2020, 10:43:59 AM »
I believe the economic fallout is going to be the biggest part of the story. I have zero idea on how serious the virus is, but know that it is already causing major economic headaches. While I hope it is remembered like SARS, I am hoping the economic damage is not too severe.

I believe this will be what we remember this time in history by and I also think it will be a major inflection point in the diversification, redistribution, and automation of the global manufacturing footprint.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #253 on: February 26, 2020, 11:14:50 AM »
I believe this will be what we remember this time in history by and I also think it will be a major inflection point in the diversification, redistribution, and automation of the global manufacturing footprint.

This is a reminder of the motivation, but in and of itself is not a catalyst for changing the supply chain.  Every company wants to be as close to their customers as possible while remaining economically efficient. 

Risk management, the increasing cost of labor in China and an increasingly competitive environment between the US & China are definitely considerations. 

However, automation advances and the dramatic reduction in cost to implement automation,  are the key enablers.  This is what will drive footprint changes as it reduces or even eliminates the penalty that exists today on getting close to your customer.  All this is already happening behind the scenes Covid-19 or not.

All my opinion of course.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 11:39:28 AM by Frenns Liquor Depot »

Benny B

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #254 on: February 26, 2020, 11:23:10 AM »
I know you guys are pros, but the rest of the public will just buy whatever they see... or probably whatever is left.

Looks like I finally have a use for all those P100 cartridges and Tyvek jumpsuits that I had forgotten I had put on Subscribe and Save.

Found this website to have interesting data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/


81% of the cases (reported) are classified as "mild".  14% are 'severe' (developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.)   2% fatal.

If you don't have heart disease, diabetes, respiratory issues, hypertension or cancer .. the fatality rate is .9%.    That's further lower if you're under the age of 70.

It bears repeating... this is a RESPIRATORY ILLNESS with flu-like symptoms (it is not "the flu").  So it would stand to reason that heavy smokers and those living in industrial areas with significant air quality issues - *cough* China *cough* *cough* *hack* *wheeze* (see what I did there) - would be more susceptible to a respiratory virus than the rest of us, i.e. Covid-19 is presumably less fatal in western, developed countries with smoking bans and Clean Air Acts.

With the disclaimer that I don't know if these statistics are relevant, or provide any meaningful comparison, a quick check of air quality measurements shows that the average "PM2.5" level in Wuhan in 2013 was 88.7.

Same metric for 2019 in Illinois: 9.2
Wisconsin: 7.4
California: 7.7
Texas: 8.4
New Jersey: 8.1

Again, not saying this actually means anything, but by the PM2.5 metric, air quality in Wuhan is 10x worse than the US.  Does that make them 10x as susceptible... probably not.  Would the prognosis for a COVID infection be significantly better for someone who's lived their entire life in the US... I would have to think 'yes.'
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 11:24:49 AM by Benny B »
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Benny B

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #255 on: February 26, 2020, 11:29:00 AM »
Here's where I think we have to find a better way to cover these types of things.....obviously the right information and details about Covid-19 is going to be slow moving, it is the nature of virology specifically and science generally, but the cadence of news coverage moves much faster than that so the content machine must be fed resulting in overstated or conflicting information. This is further exacerbated by the fact that these viruses are going to emerge in what I would term "information restricted" locations. Either due to infrastructure (developing or war torn countries like Syria, Congo, etc) or politically repressive countries (ie Iran, China, etc) useful information is not made available to where it can be consumed which leads to news coverage trying to fill the gaps with problematic/unverified information which leads to further misinformation.

C'mon, man.  Where's the cynicism?  What's with all the level-headed elegance?
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

JWags85

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #256 on: February 26, 2020, 11:48:57 AM »
My fav comment today was, in regards to China having this fairly contained and it dying down, "China isn't my worry, its the rapid spread across the rest of the world"...if there was a disease that showed up in 5, 10, even 100 people in a country, it wouldn't begin to merit this level of hysteria.  If China is under control and vaccines in the works, I don't care about 1 person in Croatia, 3 people in St Louis, 5 in Helsinki.

mu03eng

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #257 on: February 26, 2020, 12:04:08 PM »
C'mon, man.  Where's the cynicism?  What's with all the level-headed elegance?



Better?
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

rocky_warrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #258 on: February 26, 2020, 12:39:51 PM »
If China is under control and vaccines in the works

You should read the Atlantic article that hilltopper linked.  But in case it's tl;dr

1) There is likely no long term vaccine.  if one can be created, it would be like the flu vaccine - you need to re-up every year - and not 100% effective.
2) If that can be created, it's probably at least 12 months from now.
3) it would be surprising if a large chunk of the population does not get the virus. 

I'm surprised how nonchalant the posts are today.

From the CDC call
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0221-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

Quote
We’re not seeing spread here in the United States yet, but it is possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen.  Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S

Quote
Therefore, it is possible that some of these people were already incubating the disease when they left japan. That is similar to, for example, what we’ve seen in just some of the travelers in the U.S.  I’ll remind you that some of the U.S. cases were asymptomatic when they came back in the U.S., and then developed symptoms several days later.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #259 on: February 26, 2020, 12:46:01 PM »
Depends if you believe the Chinese.  I don't.  Look what this thing does to countries like Iran without the resources that China can throw at it. 

I have also heard that asymptomatic carriers are likely.  That is part of what is making this very hard to slow down.  They can't find patient zero in Italy.
Supposed to be traveling to Milan at the beginning of April, I guess it is wait and watch for now.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

rocket surgeon

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #260 on: February 26, 2020, 01:08:04 PM »
Depends if you believe the Chinese.  I don't.  Look what this thing does to countries like Iran without the resources that China can throw at it. 

I have also heard that asymptomatic carriers are likely.  That is part of what is making this very hard to slow down.  They can't find patient zero in Italy.

  agree 100% however, i don't believe enough is known about asymptomatic carriers yet, but would not surprise me. 

it was the secrecy of the Chinese that allowed this thing to get out of control.  they could have corralled this thing way back with a little bit of humility and transparency. this is 2020, not 1818!!   makes one wonder if there were other motivations involved here.  the ramifications could unnecessarily be endless here.   
don't...don't don't don't don't

rocky_warrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #261 on: February 26, 2020, 01:22:12 PM »
it was the secrecy of the Chinese that allowed this thing to get out of control.  they could have corralled this thing way back with a little bit of humility and transparency.

They probably could have handled it better, but I'm not so quick to judge. With up to 14 days of incubation, and it being a new virus I can see it being hard to get a handle on the fact that it's even happened.   The lockdown was unprecedented, and something the US will have trouble doing when it starts to spread here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/who-says-china-lockdown-blunted-new-epidemic-leading-to-decline
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 01:30:46 PM by rocky_warrior »

JWags85

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #262 on: February 26, 2020, 01:37:26 PM »
The lockdown was unprecedented, and something the US will have trouble doing when it starts to spread here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/who-says-china-lockdown-blunted-new-epidemic-leading-to-decline

This i can agree with.  When the Chinese government says something/gives a directive, the population complies unflinchingly.  Not so much in US, which isn't necessarily a bad thing in most cases, but it is here

Coleman

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #263 on: February 26, 2020, 01:40:05 PM »
Found this website to have interesting data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/


81% of the cases (reported) are classified as "mild".  14% are 'severe' (developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.)   2% fatal.

If you don't have heart disease, diabetes, respiratory issues, hypertension or cancer .. the fatality rate is .9%.    That's further lower if you're under the age of 70.

The demographic chart is reassuring to me. I have a 2 month old and have been worrying as everything I hear is that the "very young" are also high risk. Can there really be no fatalities? That doesn't seem possible.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 01:43:47 PM by Coleman »

Galway Eagle

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #264 on: February 26, 2020, 01:41:28 PM »
They probably could have handled it better, but I'm not so quick to judge. With up to 14 days of incubation, and it being a new virus I can see it being hard to get a handle on the fact that it's even happened.   The lockdown was unprecedented, and something the US will have trouble doing when it starts to spread here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/who-says-china-lockdown-blunted-new-epidemic-leading-to-decline

This is a good take, but sending the dr to jail when he raised alarm about a new disease tilts the scale less toward "its hard to get a handle on" and more toward "let's cover it up" in my opinion
Maigh Eo for Sam

rocky_warrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #265 on: February 26, 2020, 01:45:53 PM »
Today's CDC transcript for those that like to read ... Or listen!

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

mu_hilltopper

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #266 on: February 26, 2020, 02:22:16 PM »
Today's CDC transcript for those that like to read ... Or listen!

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html
You should ask your children’s school about their plans for school dismissals or school closures.  If ask if there are plans for teleschool.  I contacted my local school superintendent this morning with exactly those questions.
Ouch.

mu_hilltopper

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #267 on: February 26, 2020, 03:05:46 PM »
This comes straight from the CDC:

Those Scoopers with a Fu Manchu had better change their 'stache to the Zorro or the Zappa or their new respirators won't work properly:


rocket surgeon

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #268 on: February 26, 2020, 03:08:55 PM »
They probably could have handled it better, but I'm not so quick to judge. With up to 14 days of incubation, and it being a new virus I can see it being hard to get a handle on the fact that it's even happened.   The lockdown was unprecedented, and something the US will have trouble doing when it starts to spread here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/who-says-china-lockdown-blunted-new-epidemic-leading-to-decline

"handled it a little better" is a bit of an understatement since the doc tried warning them of this virus on or around december 3.  then he was detained by "police" and made to sign a document about spreading "falsehoods" and i'm sure the negative reinforcement was overwhelming except he "died from the virus" himself...hmmmm....

probably a little room for improvement here


https://thehill.com/policy/international/asia-pacific/481977-china-investigating-death-of-doctor-who-sounded-coronavirus
don't...don't don't don't don't

rocky_warrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #269 on: February 26, 2020, 03:21:56 PM »
probably a little room for improvement here

Yes, it's awful the Chinese government silenced him. Mmmkay?  And unfortunate he died from it.

I don't believe the spread would have been much different if they hadn't.

DegenerateDish

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #270 on: February 26, 2020, 06:13:06 PM »
You should ask your children’s school about their plans for school dismissals or school closures.  If ask if there are plans for teleschool.  I contacted my local school superintendent this morning with exactly those questions.
Ouch.

I’ve been wondering about this the most. With February nearly over, and 3 months left in the school year, can the US get to the end of the school year before this sucker spreads? I would doubt it (?). I think a decent mile marker is if the US can get towards Memorial Day without a major outbreak.

lawdog77

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #271 on: February 26, 2020, 06:28:57 PM »
This comes straight from the CDC:

Those Scoopers with a Fu Manchu had better change their 'stache to the Zorro or the Zappa or their new respirators won't work properly:


The toothbrush? Who on earth would even grow that after Hitler?

Galway Eagle

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #272 on: February 26, 2020, 06:34:34 PM »
The toothbrush? Who on earth would even grow that after Hitler?

I toured a house the other day and the selling agent had one... it was uncomfortable
Maigh Eo for Sam

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #273 on: February 26, 2020, 06:37:52 PM »
This comes straight from the CDC:

Those Scoopers with a Fu Manchu had better change their 'stache to the Zorro or the Zappa or their new respirators won't work properly:



Ian Bremmer posted this with the caption “unclear Brooklyn survives Coronavirus “

I chuckled. 

RJax55

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #274 on: February 26, 2020, 06:45:02 PM »
I toured a house the other day and the selling agent had one... it was uncomfortable

The only guy I've ever seen with that look was Michael Jordan in those old Hanes ads.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 06:49:03 PM by RJax55 »

 

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