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Author Topic: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")  (Read 1085071 times)

Bocephys

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #625 on: March 10, 2020, 09:27:43 AM »
Great point, forgot about Iran....they have all the same intrinsic markers that Italy and China do that make them very vulnerable to an overly negative impact from a virus of this type. Essentially Covid 19 is a respiratory flu, so dense/aging/respiratory adverse nations are going to struggle with it. Add in any infrastructure problems and it gets bad. However the majority of countries in the developed world don't have the perfect storm that Iran/Italy/China has so while it will be impactful it won't be the worst case scenario

Wouldn't the rural US have most of those same markers (outside of population density of course)?

GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #626 on: March 10, 2020, 09:31:19 AM »
Sounds good guys.  Looks like scoop has figured it out.  Someone alert the WHO and CDC that this is just a smokers disease.

Hyperbolic much?

Nobody said it is "just a smokers disease," and mu03eng and I both added that the US still has to be vigilant. But the 50% higher rate of smoking, combined with the higher population density, are risk factors that both WHO and CDC acknowledge.

GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #627 on: March 10, 2020, 09:37:50 AM »
Wouldn't the rural US have most of those same markers (outside of population density of course)?


Likely so. But you can be highly susceptible, and you still won't get the illness if you don't come into close contact with someone who carries the virus.

It's a combination of risk factors like age, smoking, etc...plus coming into close contact with someone who carries the virus (which increases with population density).

The US has relatively low smoking rates and population density, and a younger population than most of Western Europe. So while we still have plenty of reason to be vigilant, there is also reason to believe we won't see the extremes they are seeing in Italy and China.

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #628 on: March 10, 2020, 09:48:55 AM »

Likely so. But you can be highly susceptible, and you still won't get the illness if you don't come into close contact with someone who carries the virus.

It's a combination of risk factors like age, smoking, etc...plus coming into close contact with someone who carries the virus (which increases with population density).

The US has relatively low smoking rates and population density, and a younger population than most of Western Europe. So while we still have plenty of reason to be vigilant, there is also reason to believe we won't see the extremes they are seeing in Italy and China.

Just curious, where besides your and mu03eng's conjecture have you read that smokers contract the disease at a higher rate than average?

And since we're talking about smokers...

he ten countries with the highest smoking rates are:

    Kiribati (52.40%)
    Nauru (47.50%)
    Greece (42.65%)
    Serbia (41.65%)
    Russia (40.90%)
    Jordan (40.45%)
    Indonesia (39.90%)
    Bosnia and Herzegovina (38.60%)
    Lebanon (38.30%)
    Chile (38.00%)

Those are the ten countries with the highest smoking rates.  Strange that I don't see China or Italy on those lists.  Yet Covid2019 exists in 8 of those 10 places... and the two not on the list are tiny oceanic islands.


Coleman

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #629 on: March 10, 2020, 10:01:47 AM »
The best news right now:

New cases in China are declining dramatically. Xi Jinping is visiting Wuhan today as a sign of confidence.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51813876

3,000 deaths in China sounds like a lot...but for a country of 1.386 billion, it really isn't. Yes, I know the caveat about the trustworthiness of China's numbers, but it does sound like this thing is coming under control. What can we learn from them?

Also, I know the Gates Foundation has chipped in a bit for this, by why are they not pouring more money into this?



Galway Eagle

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #630 on: March 10, 2020, 10:05:35 AM »
Just curious, where besides your and mu03eng's conjecture have you read that smokers contract the disease at a higher rate than average?

And since we're talking about smokers...

he ten countries with the highest smoking rates are:

    Kiribati (52.40%)
    Nauru (47.50%)
    Greece (42.65%)
    Serbia (41.65%)
    Russia (40.90%)
    Jordan (40.45%)
    Indonesia (39.90%)
    Bosnia and Herzegovina (38.60%)
    Lebanon (38.30%)
    Chile (38.00%)

Those are the ten countries with the highest smoking rates.  Strange that I don't see China or Italy on those lists.  Yet Covid2019 exists in 8 of those 10 places... and the two not on the list are tiny oceanic islands.


https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/925855

https://www.google.com/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/6634469/coronavirus-smoking/amp/


There's more but then there's also the correlation of smoking to things like heart disease, diabetes, various lung diseases all of which have shown to be risk factors for worse cases of the virus.
Maigh Eo for Sam

GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #631 on: March 10, 2020, 10:15:40 AM »

Just curious, where besides your and mu03eng's conjecture have you read that smokers contract the disease at a higher rate than average?



I never said they contract the disease at higher rates.

When they contract the virus, smokers are at risk for having more severe outcomes. Just like older people. Here is a UCSF paper citing a study that showed that smokers in China were at 14 times higher risk than non-smokers to have serious outcomes (including death) if they contracted covid-19. https://tobacco.ucsf.edu/reduce-your-risk-serious-lung-disease-caused-corona-virus-quitting-smoking-and-vaping

So no, it isn't just conjecture that smoking is a huge risk factor for a serious illness.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 10:17:14 AM by GooooMarquette »

Benny B

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #632 on: March 10, 2020, 10:18:34 AM »
Just curious, where besides your and mu03eng's conjecture have you read that smokers contract the disease at a higher rate than average?

And since we're talking about smokers...

he ten countries with the highest smoking rates are:

    Kiribati (52.40%)
    Nauru (47.50%)
    Greece (42.65%)
    Serbia (41.65%)
    Russia (40.90%)
    Jordan (40.45%)
    Indonesia (39.90%)
    Bosnia and Herzegovina (38.60%)
    Lebanon (38.30%)
    Chile (38.00%)

Those are the ten countries with the highest smoking rates.  Strange that I don't see China or Italy on those lists.  Yet Covid2019 exists in 8 of those 10 places... and the two not on the list are tiny oceanic islands.

Out of curiosity, would you be willing to disclose your current position in BTC and how far upside down you are?
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Warrior2008

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #633 on: March 10, 2020, 10:20:08 AM »

Likely so. But you can be highly susceptible, and you still won't get the illness if you don't come into close contact with someone who carries the virus.

It's a combination of risk factors like age, smoking, etc...plus coming into close contact with someone who carries the virus (which increases with population density).

The US has relatively low smoking rates and population density, and a younger population than most of Western Europe. So while we still have plenty of reason to be vigilant, there is also reason to believe we won't see the extremes they are seeing in Italy and China.

4 of the 5 NYC boroughs have a higher population density than any Italian city.  In fact 14 US metro areas have a higher population density than any Italian city.  It jumps to 19 US metro areas if you want to compare it to the Italian epicenter of Milan.  And its great that the US has lower smoking rates, it will undoubtedly help.  But we also are leaders in hypertension and diabetes which are comorbidities to the virus which wouldn't. 

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #634 on: March 10, 2020, 10:21:04 AM »

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/925855

https://www.google.com/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/6634469/coronavirus-smoking/amp/


There's more but then there's also the correlation of smoking to things like heart disease, diabetes, various lung diseases all of which have shown to be risk factors for worse cases of the virus.

Well of course more people die when they are smokers and have underlying conditions.  I said 'contract' not 'expire'. 

I hope you understand why that is important.  What happens in the US and UK when the obese population gets the disease and start expiring?  Do countries with low numbers of obese people get to say, "oh no big deal, it primarily impacts smokers and obese populations"?  That's my point.  Pointing to smoking as problematic is a no brainer.  But smoking isn't the only factor that contributes to death from Covid19.  So stating that the US should have better outcomes because there aren't as many smokers is utter foolishness.

The main reason people survive this disease is proper medical treatment.  This is why testing is so important.  People that contract the disease need to be quarantined (in a hospital), and the people they have come into contact with need to self quarantine for a minimum of two weeks.  This doesn't mean go to the store, this doesn't mean go to work, this doesn't mean go to church.  Its stay home with all the people that live in the home.  If conditions of people in the home deteriorate then they go to the hospital.  When people act like this is, "just the flu, lol" they infect others who are more at risk, and we have what happened in China, Italy, and Iran... and what is happening in Spain, France, Germany... and coming soon to the USA.  SK showed the world how to deal with this.  Test everyone that came into contact with someone with Covid19, and then quarantine those who show symptoms and move from there.  That is what needs to happen world wide. 

Dr. Blackheart

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Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #636 on: March 10, 2020, 10:22:38 AM »
Out of curiosity, would you be willing to disclose your current position in BTC and how far upside down you are?

Well, I bought heavily at 4k.  So I'm fine.  I have zero plans to sell anytime soon.  I won't say how much I bought... ever.

MUBurrow

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #637 on: March 10, 2020, 10:25:13 AM »

Also, I know the Gates Foundation has chipped in a bit for this, by why are they not pouring more money into this?

I don't know this, but my first guess would be that there is a lack of NGO's active in this space?  If the responses are being handled almost entirely by the governments of each country, there aren't really entities to whom foundations could contribute to help with the emergency response?

GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #638 on: March 10, 2020, 10:35:20 AM »
4 of the 5 NYC boroughs have a higher population density than any Italian city.  In fact 14 US metro areas have a higher population density than any Italian city.  It jumps to 19 US metro areas if you want to compare it to the Italian epicenter of Milan.  And its great that the US has lower smoking rates, it will undoubtedly help.  But we also are leaders in hypertension and diabetes which are comorbidities to the virus which wouldn't.


No question there are parts of the US that have high risk factors for spread. But we also have huge swaths of land that are virtually empty compared to most of Western Europe.

Again - I never said there isn't cause for concern. Only that, as a relative thing, we have good reason to believe that places like China and Italy may very well be the worst of it.

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #639 on: March 10, 2020, 10:42:45 AM »

No question there are parts of the US that have high risk factors for spread. But we also have huge swaths of land that are virtually empty compared to most of Western Europe.

Again - I never said there isn't cause for concern. Only that, as a relative thing, we have good reason to believe that places like China and Italy may very well be the worst of it.

Absolutely, but this moves via people... and we don't stay in one place, or out on the range in Wyoming.  We go to work, stores, and school. 

Small villages in China were not immune either.

Bocephys

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #640 on: March 10, 2020, 10:58:35 AM »

Likely so. But you can be highly susceptible, and you still won't get the illness if you don't come into close contact with someone who carries the virus.

It's a combination of risk factors like age, smoking, etc...plus coming into close contact with someone who carries the virus (which increases with population density).

The US has relatively low smoking rates and population density, and a younger population than most of Western Europe. So while we still have plenty of reason to be vigilant, there is also reason to believe we won't see the extremes they are seeing in Italy and China.

It will be interesting to see if western culture, specifically the US, plays a role in making things worse than needed within their regions.  China could impose extreme quarantine measures and no one batted an eyelash.  I was surprised to see Italy go as far as they did yesterday, but we haven't seen how effective it will be yet. 

If the US gets to a similar point, will the majority of people actually listen to prevent further spread?  I'm betting no.

#UnleashSean

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #641 on: March 10, 2020, 11:10:44 AM »
Ivy league just canceled all conference tournaments.

This is starting to get real for the us. The last time events like this were canceled was when Jordan went to play for the tunesquad

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #642 on: March 10, 2020, 11:27:31 AM »
Ivy league just canceled all conference tournaments.

This is starting to get real for the us. The last time events like this were canceled was when Jordan went to play for the tunesquad


lawdog77

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GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #645 on: March 10, 2020, 12:44:58 PM »
Absolutely, but this moves via people... and we don't stay in one place, or out on the range in Wyoming.  We go to work, stores, and school. 

Small villages in China were not immune either.


Agreed. But I was not talking about anyplace being "immune" from an outbreak. I was just talking about the likely severity when an outbreak occurs.


jesmu84

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #647 on: March 10, 2020, 01:05:26 PM »
Why does anyone NEED to be tested?

Why not treat this like influenza? Take appropriate precautions before illness. Then, if you become symptomatic, stay home and get healthy.

If you become symptomatic and have comorbidities (respiratory dysfunction/elderly/autoimmune) or become severely compromised/ill, then go to hospital.

Seems pretty straightforward and should be treated like any other viral illness.

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #648 on: March 10, 2020, 01:12:08 PM »
Why does anyone NEED to be tested?

Why not treat this like influenza? Take appropriate precautions before illness. Then, if you become symptomatic, stay home and get healthy.

If you become symptomatic and have comorbidities (respiratory dysfunction/elderly/autoimmune) or become severely compromised/ill, then go to hospital.

Seems pretty straightforward and should be treated like any other viral illness.



Because it is nothing like influenza.

jesmu84

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #649 on: March 10, 2020, 01:21:34 PM »


Because it is nothing like influenza.

So your position is anyone with possible covid-19 symptoms needs to seek testing?

Here are the current CDC recs:
Quote
If you are a close contact of someone with COVID-19 and develop symptoms of COVID-19, call your healthcare provider and tell them about your symptoms and your exposure. They will decide whether you need to be tested, but keep in mind that there is no treatment for COVID-19 and people who are mildly ill are able to isolate at home

If you are a resident in a community where there is ongoing spread of COVID-19 and you develop COVID-19 symptoms, call your healthcare provider and tell them about your symptoms. They will decide whether you need to be tested, but keep in mind that there is no treatment for COVID-19 and people who are mildly ill are able to isolate at home.

For people who are ill with COVID-19, but are not sick enough to be hospitalized, please follow CDC guidance on how to reduce the risk of spreading your illness to others. People who are mildly ill with COVID-19 are able to isolate at home during their illness.

Sure sounds like EVERYONE demonstrating symptoms doesn't NEED to be tested
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 01:26:04 PM by jesmu84 »

 

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