COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[GooooMarquette]

Rumors starting that Trump is thinking of replacing Alex Azar as HHS Secretary.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-26/white-house-denies-report-it-s-replacing-health-secretary-azar

Would not be surprising as he oversaw CDC and FDA's initial decisions, and has been conspicuously absent from the daily pep rallies. And Fauci and Birx are way too popular to use as scapegoats.

[forgetful]

This is nuts.  96% asymptomatic across 4 different prisons?  It feels like the further we get into this, the less we know.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/494670-ninety-six-percent-of-inmates-in-four-state-prisons-who-tested-positive

This likely reflects viral load differences. The prisoners are likely being infected by low viral loads, and not having the main initial infection be via the lungs.

I mentioned it previously, but I think viral load and route of infection is what is driving a lot of the discrepancies, and why doctors/nurses exposed to aerosolized virus are being hit so hard.

There's something else odd about this study. In this study 2028 of the cases come from one prison. They tested 2300, that means in that prison 88% were positive at the time the tests were run. That doesn't make sense, it should have spread gradually, meaning some should have recovered if close to 90% were infected. It was also a prison where most with elderly with multiple pre-existing conditions.

We know from nursing homes, that 96% are not asymptomatic. I wonder if these prisons are having poor testing procedures and are cross contaminating samples, or performing them incorrectly.

Otherwise, we need to find out what is in the water in prisons, if 96% of elderly with pre-existing conditions don't even get symptoms.

[HansMoleman]

Detailed article on why Sweden's path was the right way to go

https://medium.com/@don.donovan/what-should-we-do-about-covid19-9c3b1719b77d

[The Sultan]

Detailed article on why Sweden's path was the right way to go

https://medium.com/@don.donovan/what-should-we-do-about-covid19-9c3b1719b77d

Any article that starts with "death rate fraud" is going to be ignored.  Clearly there are problems with the stat, but they are way overblowing it.  And using "fraud" to describe it is disingenuous.

And not only that, but what do people think is going to happen here?  Things ARE going to open back up.  Some at the end of this week.  Some in two weeks.  Some a bit later.  Bascially the "Sweden-model" is going to be in place here.

[tower912]

Again, if the United States had a better nanny state health Care system, lower co-morbidity rates, an excess of beds, I would favor what Sweden did.   By 'flattening the curve', they are gaining time to understand the virus better and prepare for the long slog ahead.   I would like an effective treatment regime in place.   I expect most will.   But as the understanding grows, the ability to open things back up with appropriate precautions will grow.   I expect the month of May will have both a reopening of society AND a new surge in infections, but a better understanding of how to manage it.

[The Sultan]

Or, if we had a better safety net in place, there would be less angst about a couple of additional weeks of safer in place.

[wadesworld]

Or, if we had a better safety net in place, there would be less angst about a couple of additional weeks of safer in place.

Exactly.

[tower912]

Yup.

[Jockey]

In the early weeks of coronavirus - the US saw over 15,000 additional deaths in the country than usual that probably were because of the virus, but not counted as such. This was at the time when there were well under 10,000 confirmed deaths.

[MarquetteDano]

In the early weeks of coronavirus - the US saw over 15,000 additional deaths in the country than usual that probably were because of the virus, but not counted as such. This was at the time when there were well under 10,000 confirmed deaths.

The studies of this postmortem will be fascinating.  Because if there is an increase in deaths AFTER the shutdown that is even more frightening as less people are out and about (less car accidents,  work incidents, etc.).  But you also have to consider maybe some people died of non-COVID reasons that normally would not because they were afraid to go to the hospital.

It will probably take some time to go through all of the metrics to figure out the real death count due to the virus.  I suspect, though,  that we are currently under-counting if anything,  not over-counting.

[mu_hilltopper]

Any article that starts with "death rate fraud" is going to be ignored.  Clearly there are problems with the stat, but they are way overblowing it.  And using "fraud" to describe it is disingenuous.

And not only that, but what do people think is going to happen here?  Things ARE going to open back up.  Some at the end of this week.  Some in two weeks.  Some a bit later.  Bascially the "Sweden-model" is going to be in place here.

I agree that "fraud" is the wrong word, but .. the concept that there is a "real" death rate is not entirely wrong.    What we're finding about massive asymptomatic populations is that our case undercount is astronomical.

I also agree the "Sweden Model" is going to be put in place eventually -- except I'd bet on openings .. and future closings when there's the inevitable surge(s).

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I agree that "fraud" is the wrong word, but .. the concept that there is a "real" death rate is not entirely wrong.    What we're finding about massive asymptomatic populations is that our case undercount is astronomical.

I also agree the "Sweden Model" is going to be put in place eventually -- except I'd bet on openings .. and future closings when there's the inevitable surge(s).

China just closed gyms in Beijing.  The more you poke around, the less that you find any instance where this was stamped out and hasnt re-emerged with renewed restrictions.

[MUBurrow]

I don't think its a given that we are going to see future closings to combat surges.  We in the US have shown (what to me anyway) appears to be a unique degree of polarization regarding the costs/benefits of quarantine.  I think that the appetite to close back down, even in the face of infection rate surges, will be extremely low.  Barring absolute catastrophe - like hospitals across the country looking like NY with Italy-type death rates, and maybe still not even then - I think we press ahead with degrees of reopening only from here on out.

[rocky_warrior]

Barring absolute catastrophe - like hospitals across the country looking like NY with Italy-type death rates, and maybe still not even then - I think we press ahead with degrees of reopening only from here on out.

Just to cover all my bases, I agree, and disagree!  I think many businesses (mine, and my wife's included) are settling in on what the "new normal" will be for the foreseeable future (which, admittedly, might mean only a couple months).  That is:
1) neither company has had any layoffs or furloughs (though regardless, the following may still be true)
2) Offices have been closed, or extremely sparse (<= 10% attendance)
3) In the near term, offices will be ramped up to 20-50% attendance
4) But no current plans to bring more than that back.  Much more WFH than in the past, going forward.

Distancing, and employee safety is the focus - and no changes to that are expected in the next few months.  Commercial real-estate is probably going to suffer.

[MU82]

I don't think its a given that we are going to see future closings to combat surges.  We in the US have shown (what to me anyway) appears to be a unique degree of polarization regarding the costs/benefits of quarantine.  I think that the appetite to close back down, even in the face of infection rate surges, will be extremely low.  Barring absolute catastrophe - like hospitals across the country looking like NY with Italy-type death rates, and maybe still not even then - I think we press ahead with degrees of reopening only from here on out.

This ... probably.

[HansMoleman]

Just to cover all my bases, I agree, and disagree!  I think many businesses (mine, and my wife's included) are settling in on what the "new normal" will be for the foreseeable future (which, admittedly, might mean only a couple months).  That is:
1) neither company has had any layoffs or furloughs (though regardless, the following may still be true)
2) Offices have been closed, or extremely sparse (<= 10% attendance)
3) In the near term, offices will be ramped up to 20-50% attendance
4) But no current plans to bring more than that back.  Much more WFH than in the past, going forward.

Distancing, and employee safety is the focus - and no changes to that are expected in the next few months.  Commercial real-estate is probably going to suffer.

So long, wework

[Lennys Tap]

Commercial real-estate is probably going to suffer.

In spades. Warehouses will be valuable, but office space value is going down big time.

[warriorchick]

In spades. Warehouses will be valuable, but office space value is going down big time.

Yep.  I predict that this will be one of the most significant legacies of the virus.

Employers have discovered that many of their workers can perform their duties from home perfectly fine, and will be asking themselves why they are spending thousands of dollars in occupancy costs (rent, utilities, tech costs) per employee when they don't really need to.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yep.  I predict that this will be one of the most significant legacies of the virus.

Employers have discovered that many of their workers can perform their duties from home perfectly fine, and will be asking themselves why they are spending thousands of dollars in occupancy costs (rent, utilities, tech costs) per employee when they don't really need to.

Agree, though this already happened at my firm and many others. Our office only had a ~60% occupancy rate on any given day, so we shrunk our footprint and went to an open/shared space. Kind of sucked, IMO, but $ almost exclusively drive every decision unfortunately.

[warriorchick]

Agree, though this already happened at my firm and many others. Our office only had a ~60% occupancy rate on any given day, so we shrunk our footprint and went to an open/shared space. Kind of sucked, IMO, but $ almost exclusively drive every decision unfortunately.

As every business decision should be (within ethical limits).  The problem is that many companies focus on short-term vs. long-term.

[injuryBug]

Something to watch closely
Premier league looking to start in early June
Serie A starting end of may early June
German league to begin training in a couple weeks

[Hards Alumni]

Something to watch closely
Premier league looking to start in early June
Serie A starting end of may early June
German league to begin training in a couple weeks

Gives us an idea of path forward.  Hopefully we can get some form of baseball this year.

Even with empty stadiums, its not like anything would change for the Marlins. 

[pbiflyer]

Gives us an idea of path forward.  Hopefully we can get some form of baseball this year.

Even with empty stadiums, its not like anything would change for the Marlins.

Hey! 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

As every business decision should be (within ethical limits).  The problem is that many companies focus on short-term vs. long-term.

Indeed, and that is the potential problem I see. For me personally, I get a ton of value by being able to collaborate, often informally, with my colleagues. That just isn't possible when no one is in the office, and it is far more difficult via IM or WebEx/Zoom. And more broadly, I don't see how the folks with 0-3 years of experience are supposed to learn and be mentored remotely.

But, I'll allow that maybe I am just old and set in my ways and that it will all work out fine, but it was a decision driven by $ rather than long-term planning.

[WarriorDad]

Indeed, and that is the potential problem I see. For me personally, I get a ton of value by being able to collaborate, often informally, with my colleagues. That just isn't possible when no one is in the office, and it is far more difficult via IM or WebEx/Zoom. And more broadly, I don't see how the folks with 0-3 years of experience are supposed to learn and be mentored remotely.

But, I'll allow that maybe I am just old and set in my ways and that it will all work out fine, but it was a decision driven by $ rather than long-term planning.

This is well reasoned in my view.  I'm semi-retired, but some jobs you need the day to day hands on interaction, mentorship.  The amount of knowledge picked up with face to face interactions is immeasurable.  Even casual settings such as walking to and from meetings with a colleague can elicit information that ends up critical.