COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Hards Alumni]

My fav comment today was, in regards to China having this fairly contained and it dying down, "China isn't my worry, its the rapid spread across the rest of the world"...if there was a disease that showed up in 5, 10, even 100 people in a country, it wouldn't begin to merit this level of hysteria.  If China is under control and vaccines in the works, I don't care about 1 person in Croatia, 3 people in St Louis, 5 in Helsinki.

Allow me to explain why you should.  China lies.  China lies.  I can't type it enough.  I can't say it enough.  If people are moving around the world, asymptomatic for a week or two and infecting other people these 1, 3, and 5 people bloom into clusters. 


Now, China can shut that down.  Just look at the major cities.  They slam the doors closed, and implement draconian (very effective) measures.  The rest of the world doesn't operate like China.  The US can't enforce the measures that China took.

You and I might not die from the virus.  What MIGHT happen is all the beds are full with Covid2019 patients.  Where does the normal flow of people who go to the ER or the hospital end up?  There isn't enough workers, or hospitals to tend to everyone, and people will die from things other than Covid2019.  Not to mention all the people who will show up to the ER and Urgent Cares... who SWEAR they have the virus, and demand antibiotics, and who aren't being seen fast enough.  What this virus does is completely and totally overwhelms the medical communities ability to do their job.  If anything close to 20% of people who contract Covid2019 require hospitalization or extended care we are boned. 

I'm not panicking, but I'm taking this very seriously.  The economic impact will be enormous unless this is gone in a month.  Even then, it will be bad.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-cdc-usa.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

[rocket surgeon]

Allow me to explain why you should.  China lies.  China lies.  I can't type it enough.  I can't say it enough.  If people are moving around the world, asymptomatic for a week or two and infecting other people these 1, 3, and 5 people bloom into clusters. 


Now, China can shut that down.  Just look at the major cities.  They slam the doors closed, and implement draconian (very effective) measures.  The rest of the world doesn't operate like China.  The US can't enforce the measures that China took.

You and I might not die from the virus.  What MIGHT happen is all the beds are full with Covid2019 patients.  Where does the normal flow of people who go to the ER or the hospital end up?  There isn't enough workers, or hospitals to tend to everyone, and people will die from things other than Covid2019.  Not to mention all the people who will show up to the ER and Urgent Cares... who SWEAR they have the virus, and demand antibiotics, and who aren't being seen fast enough.  What this virus does is completely and totally overwhelms the medical communities ability to do their job.  If anything close to 20% of people who contract Covid2019 require hospitalization or extended care we are boned. 

I'm not panicking, but I'm taking this very seriously.  The economic impact will be enormous unless this is gone in a month.  Even then, it will be bad.

wow hards!  you're becoming my hero man! 

   they're saying, if you are having a heart attack, stroke, bleeding to death in china...sorry, but we've got sick people to attend to, but we'll take a kidney or 2

[Hards Alumni]

wow hards!  you're becoming my hero man! 

   they're saying, if you are having a heart attack, stroke, bleeding to death in china...sorry, but we've got sick people to attend to, but we'll take a kidney or 2

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not... So I'll assume no.

This guy is a great resource for understanding basic epidemiology.  I can't remember how to embed videos, and there isn't a button on here

https://youtu.be/dnE9O-vV-ws

[forgetful]

Supposed to be traveling to Milan at the beginning of April, I guess it is wait and watch for now.

A series of major science conferences that occur in Italy has rescheduled and moved all conferences out of Italy.

Italy is going to be an issue for a little while.

For those saying the fatality rate in Western countries will be lower than in China...

Italy has a 3% fatality rate, which is likely understating the actual values as most cases are new, and have not gotten to the dangerous high-risk phase of the illness yet.

Regarding the Atlantic article. The epidemiologist there is using similar models as my colleagues that I posted about a couple weeks ago. Then and now, I believe their models are inaccurate. They are over-estimating the number of undiagnosed cases in the US by a considerable margin in my opinion. But the recent developments in Italy and other countries might end up making their models accurate, but delayed by 2-4 weeks.

We are in wait and see mode. I am optimistic, place the risk of global pandemic and major number of deaths in the US at around 30%.

[rocky_warrior]

If people are moving around the world, asymptomatic for a week or two and infecting other people these 1, 3, and 5 people bloom into clusters.

To be clear, that's a very big if. We know you can be asymptomatic for a couple weeks. I don't think anybody has proven (or disproven) that it's contagious while asymptomatic.

[Hards Alumni]

To be clear, that's a very big if. We know you can be asymptomatic for a couple weeks. I don't think anybody has proven (or disproven) that it's contagious while asymptomatic.

Very true

[rocky_warrior]

Very true

But on the other hand, to those that think it was merely China not responding correctly, Germany (very advanced) admits they can't track it:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-02-26/germany-is-at-start-of-coronavirus-epidemic-health-minister

[forgetful]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-us-developments/index.html

Not a good development. It means that we are not tracking things well here either, and some of the estimates in the epidemiology models may be accurate.

[rocket surgeon]

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not... So I'll assume no.

This guy is a great resource for understanding basic epidemiology.  I can't remember how to embed videos, and there isn't a button on here

https://youtu.be/dnE9O-vV-ws

Nope, no sarcasm.  I'm impressed by your DD and the following of the bouncing ball here.

Your video on the epidemiology is disturbingly informational.

Note-January 30...over 30 days after the virus has been suspected and/or identified, the world health organization declares the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
    This is the same organization whose leader was "accused" of covering up 3 cholera epidemics. This is not the organization we need or want to have any semblance of politicization whatsoever.  This is where everyone's b.s. detector should go into overdrive. Can you imagine chinas control over some such entity?  Put it this way...the only thing worse than this outbreak having it's origins in China Is if a nuclear incident did the same. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/13/health/candidate-who-director-general-ethiopia-cholera-outbreaks.html

[Dish]

I saw that Japan is closing their schools for a month. I always also think the market knows more than anyone else, so I'm at the point where I'm going to go stock up on non-perishables, and explain to my kids what's going on in the world and how that might impact things.

Our company ceased all international travel effective immediately this morning, and advised that any meetings that can be done domestically over video conference should start immediately over domestic travel.

I'm not the kind of person to usually be skeptical about the hype around these types of things, but I also want to be practical and prepare. I forgot who said it in this thread, but stocking up on things like pasta, frozen foods, can't hurt. Gonna use them eventually anyway, might as well buy a bunch in case we all have to hunker down.

[mu_hilltopper]

Serious question, though .. once COVID19 is widespread .. enough to be, for example, in Milwaukee, would quarantines matter?   

What's the theory of what could happen?    I don't see the food/grocery industry crumbling, besides some specifics being halted.    If it was widespread, I don't see mass quarantines being effective -- the horse has left the barn.

So .. what's the theory? 

[Coleman]

Serious question, though .. once COVID19 is widespread .. enough to be, for example, in Milwaukee, would quarantines matter?   

What's the theory of what could happen?    I don't see the food/grocery industry crumbling, besides some specifics being halted.    If it was widespread, I don't see mass quarantines being effective -- the horse has left the barn.

So .. what's the theory?

Good question.

Does it just become a seasonal thing like the flu at that point? If so, do we get some respite by the time May rolls around? Might give more time to prepare for the next round with vaccines, antivirals, etc. like we handle the flu.

[real chili 83]

I'm going to get inoculated at Real Chili Saturday night.  The cure for whatever ails you.

[mu03eng]

Serious question, though .. once COVID19 is widespread .. enough to be, for example, in Milwaukee, would quarantines matter?   

What's the theory of what could happen?    I don't see the food/grocery industry crumbling, besides some specifics being halted.    If it was widespread, I don't see mass quarantines being effective -- the horse has left the barn.

So .. what's the theory?

Remember how N1H1 crippled everything in 2009......yeah nobody does. I think there is no doubt that a Covid-19 pandemic would be tragic for those impacted but I have yet to see anything that tells me this is some sort of crippling event. It could be and you generally want to fight to take that outcome off the table so all actions to date make sense but I'm not anywhere near to putting my money into canned foods and shotgun shells.

[rocky_warrior]

Luckily, CDC has an answer just for this

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

What May Happen
More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It's also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, workplaces, and other places for mass gatherings may experience more absenteeism. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy.

[jesmu84]

I've seen at least one upper level pro soccer match in Europe played in an empty stadium due to concerns.

[Benny B]

Serious question, though .. once COVID19 is widespread .. enough to be, for example, in Milwaukee, would quarantines matter?   

What's the theory of what could happen?    I don't see the food/grocery industry crumbling, besides some specifics being halted.    If it was widespread, I don't see mass quarantines being effective -- the horse has left the barn.

So .. what's the theory?

Exactly.  I thought about buying some extra N95's yesterday just to have on hand, and I had second thoughts about the risks of taking a flight to go see some stupid basketball tournament.

Then I had an epiphany because it is not just some stupid basketball tournament and everyone's sold out of masks... so I asked myself what's the downside, Benny?  The downside is postponing exposure to the virus.

Any non-millennials remember chicken pox parties?

Yes, I realize this is going to be a very unpopular opinion, but I would rather be one of the first 10,000 cases in the US than one of ten million cases.  If there is a modicum of inevitability here, send me some of that delicious Wuhan pork belly right now, because the sooner I can get into the hospital, the sooner I can get out... and I'd rather get in while there's still a good supply of beds, supplies, staff, etc.  That said, I'm in perfect health, I don't smoke, and as long as my hermetic cube has wi-fi, I can work.  So I'd much rather take my chances with a virus having a 0.9% risk given my access to proper medical care.

In the absence of vaccination, inoculation is preferable to the futility of prevention.

[GooooMarquette]

I just noticed something interesting. Every time there's a new post in this thread, the Dow rises by 2% or drops by 4%.

Oops...there it goes again.

[RushmoreAcademy]

I've seen at least one upper level pro soccer match in Europe played in an empty stadium due to concerns.

What affect will it have on the MU student section?

[Dish]

Exactly.  I thought about buying some extra N95's yesterday just to have on hand, and I had second thoughts about the risks of taking a flight to go see some stupid basketball tournament.

Then I had an epiphany because it is not just some stupid basketball tournament and everyone's sold out of masks... so I asked myself what's the downside, Benny?  The downside is postponing exposure to the virus.

Any non-millennials remember chicken pox parties?

Yes, I realize this is going to be a very unpopular opinion, but I would rather be one of the first 10,000 cases in the US than one of ten million cases.  If there is a modicum of inevitability here, send me some of that delicious Wuhan pork belly right now, because the sooner I can get into the hospital, the sooner I can get out... and I'd rather get in while there's still a good supply of beds, supplies, staff, etc.  That said, I'm in perfect health, I don't smoke, and as long as my hermetic cube has wi-fi, I can work.  So I'd much rather take my chances with a virus having a 0.9% risk given my access to proper medical care.

In the absence of vaccination, inoculation is preferable to the futility of prevention.

I'm going to ask an incredibly dumb question...

So once you get it, and it passes through your system, are you then fine from getting the same strain again? I mean I know I can get the flu multiple times in the year, I guess what I'm asking is to your point, if I get it, get done with it, am I then fine to be around other people that have it?

Feel free to call me dumb for asking this.

[rocky_warrior]

The downside is postponing exposure to the virus.

Any non-millennials remember chicken pox parties?

Yes, I realize this is going to be a very unpopular opinion, but I would rather be one of the first 10,000 cases in the US than one of ten million cases.

I kinda agree, but I think I'll let you try it first.

Another though, all this NCAA tournament talk... If it spreads enough that teams start getting it (forget the fans), you have to postpone... Right?

[The Sultan]

I'm going to ask an incredibly dumb question...

So once you get it, and it passes through your system, are you then fine from getting the same strain again? I mean I know I can get the flu multiple times in the year, I guess what I'm asking is to your point, if I get it, get done with it, am I then fine to be around other people that have it?

Feel free to call me dumb for asking this.

Yes.  You should be innoculated for the rest of your life providing you get it strong enough to develop the antibodies or your immune system isn't compromised.

If you get the flu multiple times in a year, you are getting different strains.  (And I really doubt that is happening - you are most likely getting a norovirus that people are incorrectly calling the flu)

And this is what bothers me about when people don't get the flu shot and complain that they get sick anyway.  You aren't likely getting the flu.  The last time I had the flu, I was knocked out for a week.  It's much different than a 24-48 hour bug.

[JWags85]

I saw that Japan is closing their schools for a month. I always also think the market knows more than anyone else, so I'm at the point where I'm going to go stock up on non-perishables, and explain to my kids what's going on in the world and how that might impact things.

I will say one thing about the market reaction.  There will absolutely be a global impact on supply chain and the like, but this market was euphoric and apparently immune to any negative stimulus for the last 6-9 months.  There was a BIG gap to backfill, and this is the first geopolitical factor to start pushing it.  We've just backfilled to December.  So I don't know if thats a good indicator of how serious it is in a pandemic sense, but rather all the blind buying has finally been forced to address the worlds second largest economy essentially shutting down for a month.

[Coleman]

Yes.  You should be innoculated for the rest of your life providing you get it strong enough to develop the antibodies or your immune system isn't compromised.

And provided the virus doesn't mutate, which is a greater than 0% possibility.