COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[tower912]

Give me the shot.   I have the entire hepatitis set.  Flu shots every year.   Tetanus.  I come into contact with too many sick people to ever say no to a vaccine.

[pbiflyer]

Gotta start somewhere.

We can’t even agree on wearing a mask. We are stuck in this environment until something that doesn’t require general public involvement. Record numbers of cases, rising hospital totals, and still an almost violent reaction to the smallest of steps, despite ample evidence it works.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Good stuff here: https://covidtracking.com/blog/why-changing-covid-19-demographics-in-the-us-make-death-trends-harder-to

I did not realize that there is a ~7 day lag between a death and the reporting of the death.

"This [reporting lag] may be one reason why the US deaths trend currently differs from Brazil and India. In those, cases have risen consistently; the current surge in the US comes after a decline and a plateau."

"Some anecdotal and statistical evidence suggests that the average age of people with COVID-19 is declining, which complicates expectations that deaths will increase in step with new cases. <snip> In the Dallas-Fort Worth region of Abbott’s state, the University of Texas Southwestern reports that the age distribution of positive COVID-19 tests has shifted dramatically from March to June, with a peak under 30 years old. Hospitalizations and ICU admissions in the DFW region have also shifted younger if less dramatically; 50% of hospitalized patients are under 50, as are 30% of ICU patients."

"In areas where younger adults are driving new infections, we might not see deaths spike until infections overflow into more vulnerable populations. “If what is happening are outbreaks in young people, it seems likely that these young people will go on to transmit to others in their communities,” Dean writes in an email. “This spillover would cause a subsequent rise in cases among older people, followed by a lagged rise in deaths.”

[Hards Alumni]

We can’t even agree on wearing a mask. We are stuck in this environment until something that doesn’t require general public involvement. Record numbers of cases, rising hospital totals, and still an almost violent reaction to the smallest of steps, despite ample evidence it works.

A single man could change the mask debate overnight.  He won't.

[GooooMarquette]

Good stuff here: https://covidtracking.com/blog/why-changing-covid-19-demographics-in-the-us-make-death-trends-harder-to

I did not realize that there is a ~7 day lag between a death and the reporting of the death.

"This [reporting lag] may be one reason why the US deaths trend currently differs from Brazil and India. In those, cases have risen consistently; the current surge in the US comes after a decline and a plateau."

"Some anecdotal and statistical evidence suggests that the average age of people with COVID-19 is declining, which complicates expectations that deaths will increase in step with new cases. <snip> In the Dallas-Fort Worth region of Abbott’s state, the University of Texas Southwestern reports that the age distribution of positive COVID-19 tests has shifted dramatically from March to June, with a peak under 30 years old. Hospitalizations and ICU admissions in the DFW region have also shifted younger if less dramatically; 50% of hospitalized patients are under 50, as are 30% of ICU patients."

"In areas where younger adults are driving new infections, we might not see deaths spike until infections overflow into more vulnerable populations. “If what is happening are outbreaks in young people, it seems likely that these young people will go on to transmit to others in their communities,” Dean writes in an email. “This spillover would cause a subsequent rise in cases among older people, followed by a lagged rise in deaths.”

That makes a lot of sense. The current spike in cases may not initially result in a death toll like the Seattle/NYC outbreaks did, but we may see a secondary spike in cases and eventually deaths as these 20 and 30 somethings go home and infect older family members or other contacts.

Improving medical care is very likely also a factor in declining morbidly and mortality, but the point stands that we should not be too overconfident if the death tally from the current spike doesn’t rise dramatically in the next couple of weeks. I would focus more on the latter half of July and into August to see what happens to the death toll from the spread of the current wave.

[mu03eng]

That makes a lot of sense. The current spike in cases may not initially result in a death toll like the Seattle/NYC outbreaks did, but we may see a secondary spike in cases and eventually deaths as these 20 and 30 somethings go home and infect older family members or other contacts.

Improving medical care is very likely also a factor in declining morbidly and mortality, but the point stands that we should not be too overconfident if the death tally from the current spike doesn’t rise dramatically in the next couple of weeks. I would focus more on the latter half of July and into August to see what happens to the death toll from the spread of the current wave.

This is why I was sounding the alarm about over-prognostication with this new infection rate. The infection rate is going up, but it doesn't necessarily correlate to hospitalizations and deaths for Covid. It still could, it'll be about another week for hospitalizations and another 2-3 for deaths to really start definitively tracking the infection rate (if it is going to). Early indications are that it isn't going to track anywhere near where it did in the early days.

Bars and restaurants being open for indoor dining is still probably a bad idea, but the concept of a general re-opening of society is going to come with increased infection rate (how high depends on mask/spacing adherence) and as long as we are protecting the vulnerable I think it's the right balance.

We'll see what the end of next week brings from the numbers but in the early analysis I'm cautiously optimistic that this surge in infections will not overwhelm the hospital systems which is kind of the whole point.

[Uncle Rico]

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I hope this pandemic might put a serious dent in the anti-vax movement.

Man, I don’t see it all.  If anything, I think the anti-vaxxer crowd are more emboldened than ever

[Jockey]

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I hope this pandemic might put a serious dent in the anti-vax movement.

I don’t know. While we may have a vaccine in 6 months, we will not have a vaccine that is known to be safe. There will be no way to know if there are intermediate or long-term effects.

[Jockey]

A single man could change the mask debate overnight.  He won't.

Correct. One man has made not wearing a mask into a political statement instead of a health statement.

[GooooMarquette]

I don’t know. While we may have a vaccine in 6 months, we will not have a vaccine that is known to be safe. There will be no way to know if there are intermediate or long-term effects.

Part of my optimism is rooted in skepticism that we will have a COVID vaccine anywhere near 6 months from now. I think we will go through the fall/winter flu season having to rely on masks, social distancing and gradual improvements in care protocols, so people will begin to reassess whether they really want to face the possibility of getting both in the same season...and maybe even contracting COVID just after having a nasty flu. I also think that as the months go by, more and more 'COVID doubters' will know someone among their family, friends or coworkers who has faced the virus and learned how bad it is. Because of that, I think (hope?) more people will get the flu vaccine this fall, and more people will get a COVID vaccine whenever one is approved.

[Jockey]

Part of my optimism is rooted in skepticism that we will have a COVID vaccine anywhere near 6 months from now. I think we will go through the fall/winter flu season having to rely on masks, social distancing and gradual improvements in care protocols, so people will begin to reassess whether they really want to face the possibility of getting both in the same season...and maybe even contracting COVID just after having a nasty flu. I also think that as the months go by, more and more 'COVID doubters' will know someone among their family, friends or coworkers who has faced the virus and learned how bad it is. Because of that, I think (hope?) more people will get the flu vaccine this fall, and more people will get a COVID vaccine whenever one is approved.

I hope you’re right. I never even considered getting a flu shot forever. I don’t get sick. I have never been in the hospital. I went 25 years without even getting the flu. Finally, after getting the flu two years ago I decided to get the shot in the fall. Actually, I think my wife decided cuz she caught it from me.

[forgetful]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53218704

Let's hope this doesn't become a 2nd pandemic. 2020 doesn't need any more major threats.

[GooooMarquette]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53218704

Let's hope this doesn't become a 2nd pandemic. 2020 doesn't need any more major threats.

Wow. That would be just devastating. COVID will definitely still be here in the fall, so another 'pandemic potential' flu bug could overwhelm resources everywhere.

[forgetful]

Wow. That would be just devastating. COVID will definitely still be here in the fall, so another 'pandemic potential' flu bug could overwhelm resources everywhere.

Something like this could be devastating, it doesn't even have to be that deadly. The fact that our current vaccines don't work for it can easily overwhelm our system. Not to mention all our facilities/resources on the vaccine front being devoted elsewhere.

Let's hope it doesn't emerge.

[mu_hilltopper]

I think the world would react extremely poorly to another bad virus originating in China.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This is why I was sounding the alarm about over-prognostication with this new infection rate. The infection rate is going up, but it doesn't necessarily correlate to hospitalizations and deaths for Covid. It still could, it'll be about another week for hospitalizations and another 2-3 for deaths to really start definitively tracking the infection rate (if it is going to). Early indications are that it isn't going to track anywhere near where it did in the early days.

Bars and restaurants being open for indoor dining is still probably a bad idea, but the concept of a general re-opening of society is going to come with increased infection rate (how high depends on mask/spacing adherence) and as long as we are protecting the vulnerable I think it's the right balance.

We'll see what the end of next week brings from the numbers but in the early analysis I'm cautiously optimistic that this surge in infections will not overwhelm the hospital systems which is kind of the whole point.

I would guess that the hospital system won’t break.  Particularly since it didn’t break in NYC.  I would agree that we don’t have the same level of spread as that outbreak yet.  The positivity rate just isn’t comparable yet in those places affected today. 

I would disagree on the balance though.  If we are going to strive to live with a certain level of spread we should not push it to a level where the hospitals have to end elective surgery.  This is bad for them economically and bad for people health wise. 

I saw this put in a good question.  Do we want bars or kids in school.

[pacearrow02]

Minnesota is seeing a spike among 20 somethings, but the overall rate is not going up.

And from what I could tell in the news coverage the vast majority of protestors fell into that age group of 20-29 which was the context of me posting that.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

And from what I could tell in the news coverage the vast majority of protestors fell into that age group of 20-29 which was the context of me posting that.

I wouldn’t be surprised where protests led to trips to the bar—where that was available. 

The northeast and DC don’t seem to have a protest boost in cases yet.  Of course it could be coming if protesters bring the virus home..but not yet. 

[Hards Alumni]

And from what I could tell in the news coverage the vast majority of protestors fell into that age group of 20-29 which was the context of me posting that.

Present your evidence that it is protestors that are getting sick.  Otherwise, its just conjecture.

[tower912]

Present your evidence that it is protestors that are getting sick.  Otherwise, its just TALKING POINTS

Fify

[Pakuni]

And from what I could tell in the news coverage the vast majority of protestors fell into that age group of 20-29 which was the context of me posting that.

Science.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/recent-protests-may-not-be-covid-19-transmission-hotspots-11592498020

[pbiflyer]

And from what I could tell in the news coverage the vast majority of protestors fell into that age group of 20-29 which was the context of me posting that.

And from what I could tell the vast majority of bar patrons fell into that 20-29 age group.
Occum wins again!

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This is getting a lot of attention from Docs tonight.  Not positive but a rare media quote from the CDC

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/cdc-says-us-has-way-too-much-virus-to-control-pandemic-as-cases-surge-across-country.html

[GooooMarquette]

And from what I could tell in the news coverage the vast majority of protestors fell into that age group of 20-29 which was the context of me posting that.

The coverage I saw included little kids to elderly adults. I have no idea what the numbers were or how much the protests may have contributed to the 20-29 spike. I do know, however, that many outbreaks have been traced to indoor activities like house and bar parties.

[GooooMarquette]

This is getting a lot of attention from Docs tonight.  Not positive but a rare media quote from the CDC

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/cdc-says-us-has-way-too-much-virus-to-control-pandemic-as-cases-surge-across-country.html

I think she's right - we probably won't "control" this like New Zealand, South Korea or Singapore, so it will be a long time before we can go back to anything remotely resembling "normal" life. Instead, states will ratchet the economy back and forth to try to keep from overwhelming the healthcare system, and we will all have to wear masks, isolate from others, and watch more and more businesses close until we finally get a vaccine or broadly effective medications.

This sucks, but we're probably gonna be walking this tightrope for many months.