COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[TSmith34, Inc.]

[pbiflyer]

Cause we haven't had enough carrying about what a horrible job Trump and the CDC and other associated cronies have done? Does it really make you feel better just constantly going after that group? I mean if it does, cool I just thought this was a thread to discuss the virus and the science of it all with some policy discussion thrown in based on that. Or are we all just here to talk about what a moron your favorite or least favorite president is or isn't?

Let me know and I'll stop posting accordingly

You complain about not having a fact based discussion, then you complain about the explanation of why that isn't possible.

Okay, here. Everything will be fine, open everything up, go back to normal. Heck, it only kills old people and you aren't old.  And if we just stop testing, it's all good. It's only the testing that causes the hysteria.

Feel better?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

OK data geeks (I say that lovingly), can we tell anything from the data about how much progress we are making in treated the virus? Percentage recovered after hospitalization perhaps, understanding that this won't be perfect as the patients profiles change?

[forgetful]

OK data geeks (I say that lovingly), can we tell anything from the data about how much progress we are making in treated the virus? Percentage recovered after hospitalization perhaps, understanding that this won't be perfect as the patients profiles change?

Although we assuredly are doing much better treating the virus. I don't think we can answer that question based on any data we currently have. The reason is there are too many variables we don't have data on, and don't even realize are important.

For instance, it's possible that our immune systems are better at fighting this virus in summer, due to seasonal variations in immune responses. If so, better results, may simply reflect seasonal variations, and not improved treatments. There are a number of other possibilities.

So, we have improved treatment plans, that are significantly impacting prognosis. But quantifying it is a bit of a fools errand as there are too many variables we don't understand.

[mu03eng]

Although we assuredly are doing much better treating the virus. I don't think we can answer that question based on any data we currently have. The reason is there are too many variables we don't have data on, and don't even realize are important.

For instance, it's possible that our immune systems are better at fighting this virus in summer, due to seasonal variations in immune responses. If so, better results, may simply reflect seasonal variations, and not improved treatments. There are a number of other possibilities.

So, we have improved treatment plans, that are significantly impacting prognosis. But quantifying it is a bit of a fools errand as their are too many variables we don't understand.

+1

[mu03eng]

You complain about not having a fact based discussion, then you complain about the explanation of why that isn't possible.

Okay, here. Everything will be fine, open everything up, go back to normal. Heck, it only kills old people and you aren't old.  And if we just stop testing, it's all good. It's only the testing that causes the hysteria.

Feel better?

No, because think this is a talking points discussion and its not

[shoothoops]

Tomorrow's 60 minutes will air a 3 month investigation which shows Federal officials knew many U.S. COVID-19 antibody tests sold were flawed but they let them continue anyway.

https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1276880333158395909?s=19

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Connecticut Magazine had an interesting read on Connecticut first diagnosed patient.  He had an 8 week ordeal including being on a ventilator and having new born twins at home.  There was a blurb at the end of the article with the doctor summarizing treatment at the beginning of the pandemic vs now. 

Connecticut's first coronavirus patient and the team that saved his life
Erik Ofgang May 22, 2020
https://www.connecticutmag.com/issues/features/connecticut-s-first-coronavirus-patient-and-the-team-that-saved-his-life/article_dca0bcb6-9ace-11ea-a993-8bd474c01a9e.html

Two months later, in early May, the protocols for treating coronavirus had changed since the state saw its first patient, and they continue to evolve rapidly, Nee says. "Every week I think I know the virus and then at the end of the week I've learned something new. When we went into this in March, we had experience from China and Italy. We initiated early intubation, tried medications with potential antiviral activity. Today, we've learned to perhaps avoid intubation by using various oxygen-delivery devices. At times, we still use antivirals, but we also try to block aspects of the immune response which are detrimental to lungs with specific medications. We also have found high rates of thromboembolic events [blood clots leading to pulmonary embolism or stroke], so some patients get blood thinners to prevent those clots."

[GooooMarquette]

Although we assuredly are doing much better treating the virus. I don't think we can answer that question based on any data we currently have. The reason is there are too many variables we don't have data on, and don't even realize are important.

For instance, it's possible that our immune systems are better at fighting this virus in summer, due to seasonal variations in immune responses. If so, better results, may simply reflect seasonal variations, and not improved treatments. There are a number of other possibilities.

So, we have improved treatment plans, that are significantly impacting prognosis. But quantifying it is a bit of a fools errand as their are too many variables we don't understand.

Agreed. We are certainly making progress, but we don't yet know if it's  baby steps or big strides.

We may not be able to quantify the progress until sometime this fall, when we learn how the current surge in cases translates into deaths, and the immune system returns to the "off-season" mode.

[Hards Alumni]

Tomorrow's 60 minutes will air a 3 month investigation which shows Federal officials knew many U.S. COVID-19 antibody tests sold were flawed but they let them continue anyway.

https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1276880333158395909?s=19

Bleh, anyone who was paying attention knew this.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Although we assuredly are doing much better treating the virus. I don't think we can answer that question based on any data we currently have. The reason is there are too many variables we don't have data on, and don't even realize are important.

For instance, it's possible that our immune systems are better at fighting this virus in summer, due to seasonal variations in immune responses. If so, better results, may simply reflect seasonal variations, and not improved treatments. There are a number of other possibilities.

So, we have improved treatment plans, that are significantly impacting prognosis. But quantifying it is a bit of a fools errand as there are too many variables we don't understand.

+1

Damn guys, in the consulting world we usually charge six figures to come up with a non-answer like that.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Analysis/comment on current situation.  Also an opinion about treatment/vaccine in comment.

https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1277214331785142273?s=21

[forgetful]

Damn guys, in the consulting world we usually charge six figures to come up with a non-answer like that.

For pay, I throw in graphs, charts, and pages of data, that is all summarized by the same non-answer.

[pbiflyer]

Damn guys, in the consulting world we usually charge six figures to come up with a non-answer like that.

Not nearly long enough of a non answer for 6 figures. More like the 5 figure summary to justify the 6 figure answer.

[Jockey]

For pay, I throw in graphs, charts, and pages of data, that is all summarized by the same non-answer.

Well done, Forgetful.

[Jockey]

Dr. Tom Frieden, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the recent surge in coronavirus cases across parts of the country is the result of the virus's spreading, not increased testing, as President Donald Trump has argued.

"As a doctor, a scientist, an epidemiologist, I can tell you with 100% certainty that in most states where you're seeing an increase, it is a real increase," Frieden told "Fox News Sunday."

[GooooMarquette]

A 'very swift and a very dangerous turn': Texans get a warning from their governor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/world/coronavirus-updates.html#link-93a18de

As the Texas governor warned that the virus had taken a "very swift and a very dangerous turn," Vice President Mike Pence urged people to wear masks during a visit to the state on Sunday.

Gov. Gregg Abbott said the rate of positive Covid-19 tests had risen to more than 13 percent from less than 4 percent in the past month and that it was an "alarm bell" for the residents of Texas.

Mr. Abbott made the grim assessment after meeting with Mr. Pence and  Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force. Mr. Pence and Dr. Birx joined the governor in urging all Texans to cover their faces and avoid close contact in crowds.

——————

Big change from Pence, as he wears a mask in public and urges others to do so as well. It seems like everyone in the administration has finally conceded that this is necessary except one guy.

The dramatic increase in positivity rate is also evidence that the virus is spreading, and that the increases are not the result of increased testing. If we simply carpet bombed the country with testing and the virus wasn't spreading, the positivity rate would fall to the low single digits.

[pbiflyer]

CDC acknowledges mixing up coronavirus testing

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cdc-acknowledges-mixing-up-coronavirus-testing-data/ar-BB14qGHG?ocid=sf&fbclid=IwAR3oEV2PpTBXkn7L9njyWjnDih7nIzA21jh_2L8dETrUw2XTYoL20sAQU58

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acknowledged Thursday that it is combining the results from viral and antibody COVID-19 tests when reporting the country's testing totals, despite marked differences between the tests.

[pacearrow02]

Cases in Hennepin County (Minneapolis) - the epicenter of the protest movement - are DOWN from 3 weeks ago.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Avik/status/1277431506621861889/photo/1

Unfortunately Minnesota is also seeing a spike

[GooooMarquette]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Avik/status/1277431506621861889/photo/1

Unfortunately Minnesota is also seeing a spike

Minnesota is seeing a spike among 20 somethings, but the overall rate is not going up.

[Jockey]

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he would "settle" for a Covid-19 vaccine that's 70% to 75% effective, but that this incomplete protection, coupled with the fact that many Americans say they won't get a coronavirus vaccine, makes it "unlikely" that the US will achieve sufficient levels of immunity to quell the outbreak

[Hards Alumni]

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he would "settle" for a Covid-19 vaccine that's 70% to 75% effective, but that this incomplete protection, coupled with the fact that many Americans say they won't get a coronavirus vaccine, makes it "unlikely" that the US will achieve sufficient levels of immunity to quell the outbreak

Gotta start somewhere. 

[mu03eng]

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he would "settle" for a Covid-19 vaccine that's 70% to 75% effective, but that this incomplete protection, coupled with the fact that many Americans say they won't get a coronavirus vaccine, makes it "unlikely" that the US will achieve sufficient levels of immunity to quell the outbreak

The group that says they are unlikely to get a vaccine is likely posturing. Doubr seriously there are a lot of anti-vaxxers out there just to "own the libs" or whatever silly stuff non-mask wearing acolytes are saying these days.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

The group that says they are unlikely to get a vaccine is likely posturing. Doubr seriously there are a lot of anti-vaxxers out there just to "own the libs" or whatever silly stuff non-mask wearing acolytes are saying these days.

I think it was a message that we need to go through our processes to prove safety and efficacy.  Especially with the news today that China is going to let their vaccine rip with the military. 

Getting people to take a vaccine is a real problem even putting anti-vaxxers aside. If you screw it up by going too fast it can be a real barrier (ie polio).  Or not making it widely available for those that do not have healthcare.

As a recent example I didn't get a flu shot in the past - not fully effective and I am not afraid of the flu.  Well after living through this I understand the science much better and will be getting one here forward. 

[GooooMarquette]

The group that says they are unlikely to get a vaccine is likely posturing. Doubr seriously there are a lot of anti-vaxxers out there just to "own the libs" or whatever silly stuff non-mask wearing acolytes are saying these days.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I hope this pandemic might put a serious dent in the anti-vax movement.