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Author Topic: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")  (Read 1084875 times)


Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #701 on: March 10, 2020, 06:21:51 PM »
Uh, no. I got my MD from the Medical College of Wisconsin, class of ‘87. I can’t dunk, but I understand epidemiology and disease management, and can read and understand CDC and WHO guidelines.

I'm pretty sure that was a dunk on my sassy attitude.  Though, I feel like I got set up pretty hard there.  ;D  Does this mean that my opinion counts more than mu03eng?  I'm just checking so I can dunk on him  :P 

As I mentioned earlier, you can take my advice with a grain of salt if you want to.  I'm certainly not an expert.  I, too, understand CDC and WHO guidelines, I just find them to be lacking.  I guess in a week or two, we will see if the guidelines were worth a damn or not.

Do you mind if I ask you what we should do in the face of this?  Follow what the CDC says?  The WHO?  Do you think they're doing an adequate job?

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #702 on: March 10, 2020, 06:23:05 PM »
https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

https://youtu.be/Q4F2oSQ8CRI

https://youtu.be/qbqQdwvjf7U

I watched the first 15 minutes of that earlier.  I don't like Rogan, overall, but the guy he has on is an expert, without a doubt.  Highly credentialed, and well known.

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #703 on: March 10, 2020, 06:26:34 PM »
I hate doing that; the fact that most here didn’t know about my degree shows that. But I can’t tolerate a know-it-all who claims to understand something like this better than the experts at CDC and WHO, and who talk down to anyone who doesn’t follow his lead...

Refute what I'm saying.  The WHO refusing to call this a pandemic degrades their credibility.  They were afraid of upsetting China from the beginning of this, and that's why they're still dragging their feet on calling this what it is.

https://www.cfr.org/blog/who-and-china-dereliction-duty

GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #704 on: March 10, 2020, 06:32:12 PM »
I'm pretty sure that was a dunk on my sassy attitude.  Though, I feel like I got set up pretty hard there.  ;D  Does this mean that my opinion counts more than mu03eng?  I'm just checking so I can dunk on him  :P 

As I mentioned earlier, you can take my advice with a grain of salt if you want to.  I'm certainly not an expert.  I, too, understand CDC and WHO guidelines, I just find them to be lacking.  I guess in a week or two, we will see if the guidelines were worth a damn or not.

Do you mind if I ask you what we should do in the face of this?  Follow what the CDC says?  The WHO?  Do you think they're doing an adequate job?

I think the CDC does an excellent job, because it makes its recommendations based on both hard science and pragmatic considerations like cost/benefit ratios and such. That doesn’t mean they can’t be debated, but IMHO it’s reasonable to consider CDC right until convincingly proven otherwise.

And to be sure, they may change their recommendations as this goes on and their knowledge base expands. To me, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are wrong now; it may simply mean they have new data on which to make recommendations.

As for the WHO’s refusal to call this a pandemic, I am at a loss. Like I said, to me CDC is the gold standard.

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #705 on: March 10, 2020, 06:35:40 PM »
I think the CDC does an excellent job, because it makes its recommendations based on both hard science and pragmatic considerations like cost/benefit ratios and such. That doesn’t mean they can’t be debated, but IMHO it’s reasonable to consider CDC right until convincingly proven otherwise.

And to be sure, they may change their recommendations as this goes on and their knowledge base expands. To me, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are wrong now; it may simply mean they have new data on which to make recommendations.

I agree, but they seem to have been caught with their pants down here.  We are at almost a month and a half from patient zero in the US.   Hopefully, they've been working to procure essential medical equipment for our HCWs at the very least.

GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #706 on: March 10, 2020, 06:39:41 PM »
I agree, but they seem to have been caught with their pants down here.  We are at almost a month and a half from patient zero in the US.   Hopefully, they've been working to procure essential medical equipment for our HCWs at the very least.

To be fair, the current administration has considerably limited the CDC’s ability to be proactive. Still, I believe their current recommendations are appropriate.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #707 on: March 10, 2020, 06:40:33 PM »
I’ve spent most of the last two days discussing this. The problem is students going away for Spring Break combined with the two week maximum incubation period. That means students traveling over break can catch something and not present symptoms until after they return. And then the school would have to find ways to quarantine not only the sick student, but their roommates, classmates, etc.

This is why schools are being very cautious. I’m sure Marquette will follow. And I bet by the end of the NCAAs, games are played in front of no crowds. If they are played at all.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Goose

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #708 on: March 10, 2020, 06:42:31 PM »
Gooo
Thank you for your posts. As we discussed years ago, you and my wife were at Medical College of Wisconsin at the same time. She has PhD in cellular biology, not MD. Again, appreciate your posts.

rocky_warrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #709 on: March 10, 2020, 07:23:23 PM »

Simple argument against testing: if you are in a demographic group where you will likely have symptoms like a minor flu, and work for a company that already gives paid sick leave, you will recover perfectly well and at lower cost by staying home and doing appropriate self-care.

Lower cost, same outcome. Is that straightforward enough?

Are you talking unlimited paid sick leave? I've got PTO, and I would have to use 5 days of that, and then I can get short term disability (a smaller % of my pay) with a dr's recommendation after that.  I suspect my benefits are better than most Americans, and I'd still need a Covid-19 test to get to your "lower cost" scenario.

GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #710 on: March 10, 2020, 07:39:27 PM »
Are you talking unlimited paid sick leave? I've got PTO, and I would have to use 5 days of that, and then I can get short term disability (a smaller % of my pay) with a dr's recommendation after that.  I suspect my benefits are better than most Americans, and I'd still need a Covid-19 test to get to your "lower cost" scenario.

I don’t know how different companies’ benefits work, but yes.

One more argument against testing patients at low-risk for a severe outcome: getting a test might require you to go to a doctor’s office or clinic, or maybe even a hospital, where there may be lots of higher risk people (the elderly, and other people at the clinic or hospital for treatment of their high-risk conditions). So the very act of going to get tested might place high-risk populations at higher risk for exposure.

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #711 on: March 10, 2020, 07:43:36 PM »
I don’t know how different companies’ benefits work, but yes.

One more argument against testing patients at low-risk for a severe outcome: getting a test might require you to go to a doctor’s office or clinic, or maybe even a hospital, where there may be lots of higher risk people (the elderly, and other people at the clinic or hospital for treatment of their high-risk conditions). So the very act of going to get tested might place high-risk populations at higher risk for exposure.

South Korea figured this out.  They had tents, and drive up testing. 

MUfan12

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rocket surgeon

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #713 on: March 10, 2020, 08:00:20 PM »
I hate doing that; the fact that most here didn’t know about my degree shows that. But I can’t tolerate a know-it-all who claims to understand something like this better than the experts at CDC and WHO, and who talk down to anyone who doesn’t follow his lead...

  the fact that most here didn't know about your degree is a testament to your character GM.  you didn't pull the "doctor card" until you were absolutely forced to 8-) 8-)  thank you for your input!

   back to the topic at hand, i just listened to an interview with dr ben carson-a lot of excellent, level headed information.  the golden nugget was a study he cited from his school/hospital, johns hopkins, was that one can be a carrier of said virus for 5.1 days on average before exhibiting any signs/symptoms.  that is one of the main reasons we all should follow(always) safe hygiene practices.  he further stated if people realized the morbidity and the fatality rate of coronavirus vs influenza, people would be "running down the streets"
don't...don't don't don't don't

GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #714 on: March 10, 2020, 08:01:19 PM »
South Korea figured this out.  They had tents, and drive up testing.

Yes, but the last I heard, it was only in one city (Seoul), and the total number of people tested was still relatively small compared to the total tested. (I may be wrong about part of that; just my recollection).

More importantly here in the US, it’s possible that the restrictions in public health funding by the current administration could prevent extensive drive-through testing on a nationwide basis. Maybe we couldn’t even do it with previous funding levels, as it would require facilities we don’t have, while clinics and hospitals are already there and equipped for testing.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 08:02:51 PM by GooooMarquette »

Galway Eagle

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #715 on: March 10, 2020, 08:02:39 PM »
Not officially. A person was tested, that's all they announced.

My bad that's what I get for not opening a link I get texted
Maigh Eo for Sam

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #716 on: March 10, 2020, 08:05:54 PM »
More importantly here in the US, it’s possible that the restrictions in public health funding by the current administration could prevent extensive drive-through testing on a nationwide basis. Maybe we couldn’t even do it with previous funding levels, as it would require facilities we don’t have, while clinics and hospitals are already there and equipped for testing.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-news-coronavirus-test-hospitals-20200309-lb54zvss6var7j7p4bfnphg4fe-story.html%3foutputType=amp

CT is at least thinking about it. 

GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #717 on: March 10, 2020, 08:12:05 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-news-coronavirus-test-hospitals-20200309-lb54zvss6var7j7p4bfnphg4fe-story.html%3foutputType=amp

CT is at least thinking about it.


If this can be done and replicated on a widespread and cost-effective basis, it might change the recommendations for testing low-risk people with symptoms. Still though, even if it works in CT, it would require a big logistical step to make it a coordinated nationwide effort.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 08:15:04 PM by GooooMarquette »

rocky_warrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #718 on: March 10, 2020, 08:19:00 PM »
CT is at least thinking about it.

CO is doing it, but requires a Dr.s note (presumably that note can be emailed after a chat?)

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/colorado-governor-declares-state-of-emergency-to-increase-covid-19-testing-implement-paid-sick-leave
Quote
The state lab in Lowry will open a drive-up facility on Wednesday, Polis said, where people can go to be tested if they have a note from their doctor. And the governor said the state was preparing more safe-testing locations, including the prioritization of putting up a testing facility in the High Country to prevent the spread of the virus in mountain communities that have already seen multiple cases.

jesmu84

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #719 on: March 10, 2020, 08:22:00 PM »
Another point regarding testing...

Let's say you make this mandatory. Or suggest everyone do it. And everyone who tests positive has to be quarantined 2 weeks (minimum, I'm guessing).

As we know, not everyone has paid time off. Or sick leave, even. Or savings to cover day to day/monthly expenses.

Think those people are gonna show up for testing knowing they're going to risk their jobs or paychecks? Ya right

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #720 on: March 10, 2020, 08:27:25 PM »
Another point regarding testing...

Let's say you make this mandatory. Or suggest everyone do it. And everyone who tests positive has to be quarantined 2 weeks (minimum, I'm guessing).

As we know, not everyone has paid time off. Or sick leave, even. Or savings to cover day to day/monthly expenses.

Think those people are gonna show up for testing knowing they're going to risk their jobs or paychecks? Ya right

I think people want to do the right thing by nature.  If I were president, I would put all the stimulus on paying sick people to not leave their house.  Improving volunteering to testing and eventually a return to normal/confidence in being out in the world. 

rocky_warrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #721 on: March 10, 2020, 08:30:29 PM »
As we know, not everyone has paid time off. Or sick leave, even. Or savings to cover day to day/monthly expenses.

Think those people are gonna show up for testing knowing they're going to risk their jobs or paychecks? Ya right

I don't disagree, but it feels like digging for reasons not to test.  CO governor  pushing to required paid sick leave for certain industries (food, childcare, health care, education and hospitality industries )

GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #722 on: March 10, 2020, 08:33:32 PM »
One other point about quickly setting up a drive-through system: when you quickly take a process out of its usual environment, you raise the risk for errors. We already know that samples occasionally get mishandled, contaminated or mislabeled in the normal clinic and hospital environment. It is quite possible that a hastily designed drive-through system would increase the error rate.

So there’s the cost, but also the quality challenge due to a quick change in logistics.

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #723 on: March 10, 2020, 09:02:26 PM »
One other point about quickly setting up a drive-through system: when you quickly take a process out of its usual environment, you raise the risk for errors. We already know that samples occasionally get mishandled, contaminated or mislabeled in the normal clinic and hospital environment. It is quite possible that a hastily designed drive-through system would increase the error rate.

So there’s the cost, but also the quality challenge due to a quick change in logistics.

I mean we're talking about collections here, not testing and results.  Just drive up, get swabbed, and you're out.  Samples get moved to a testing lab.  I don't see this being difficult.

Dr. Blackheart

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