COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Jockey]

Interesting, I have a first hand account that said that the UW head of infectious diseases says that the CDC has bungled this beyond belief, and that he is furious.  He has also said that stopping spread at this point is unavoidable, and that everyone should have two weeks of dry food on hand.

So that is not reassuring.

Neither is banning cameras and recording devices at today's "public" hearing on corona virus .

Neither was Secretary Azar's fear of taking steps early - coordinating and getting CDC involved earlier - out of fear of offending the Prez.

We criticize China's response to the crisis - rightly so - but ours has been as bad or even worse.

[cheebs09]

We're getting on a cruise in two weeks.  Generally, a month out, there is no refund, so yeah, we, and your parents are rolling the dice .. but it's better than flushing thousands$.
Just remember .. Americans take 10m cruise trips per year, so ~27k per day are getting on, off ships, plus or minus.   With the exception of a few ships, all these passengers are fine, and 27k more tomorrow will be fine.
"Until they are not."

Then Arby's.

[forgetful]

As time goes on .. I find that attitude surprising.  I think what we're going to discover is that COVID19 is widespread, like hundreds of thousands of people have it right this minute.   Hell, my son had a fever and a cough for three days last week.  We saw no doctor and just got through it.   I think tons of C19 cases are going to be like that.

Yes, it's infectious but so are 999 other viruses. 

32m people get the flu in the US, and only 310k of them get medical attention.  We don't have mass quarantines and runs on grocery stores. -- Even if you doubled those numbers for C19, I don't think you stock up your pantry.

I am not an expert but I've stayed at a Holiday Inn Express before.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/out-of-over-6700-inbound-passengers-75-test-positive-for-covid-19-chinese-custom-officials/articleshow/74474673.cms?from=mdr

If you follow news outside of the US it largely confirms what you are saying. A lot of this news is being suppressed in the domestic news.

The links says that China tested 6700 inbound international travelers that had some sort of respiratory symptoms (essentially if you sniffle you are being tested). Of those over 700 are presumed positive and 75 have been confirmed. That means 1% are confirmed to have covid19, and up to 10% are infected.

This is why companies etc., are being so aggressive in banning travel.

China is testing essentially everyone, so they are getting the best data. The rest of the world, particularly the US is way behind the curve in testing and preparedness. Looks like it is already far more widespread than anyone here is suggesting.

Possibly good news, that means the fatality rate may be closer to 0.3% than the 3.4% reported by the WHO.

[JWags85]

Possibly good news, that means the fatality rate may be closer to 0.3% than the 3.4% reported by the WHO.

The WHO has been so terrible during this entire ordeal, I don't know why anyone is putting any stock into what they say at this point.

[injuryBug]

As time goes on .. I find that attitude surprising.  I think what we're going to discover is that COVID19 is widespread, like hundreds of thousands of people have it right this minute.   Hell, my son had a fever and a cough for three days last week.  We saw no doctor and just got through it.   I think tons of C19 cases are going to be like that.

Yes, it's infectious but so are 999 other viruses. 

32m people get the flu in the US, and only 310k of them get medical attention.  We don't have mass quarantines and runs on grocery stores. -- Even if you doubled those numbers for C19, I don't think you stock up your pantry.

I am not an expert but I've stayed at a Holiday Inn Express before.

my thoughts exactly!!

[Coleman]

So evidently COVID-19 is already mutating... there are two identified strains. The newer strain is less deadly than the original. This makes sense as for the virus to survive it needs to keep hosts alive so they can pass it.

https://fortune.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-mutating-second-strain-covid-19-wuhan-china/

[Benny B]

Might be considered to be political, but we ALL know why this is a sh*tshow. It's what happens when we destroy the bureaucracy.

Actually, it's not political at all.  Bureaucracy is the writer, director and executive producer of the sh*tshow.

Ask yourself this... in a country where the average MD makes $300k, what kind of MD accepts a $100k/year job with the gov't (in the metro area with the highest cost of living in the country, no less)?  And is this the person you want managing a team of CDC researchers who are trying to get things under control?

(Answers: "One that waits for decisions to be made by someone else" and "fu@k no")

[jesmu84]

Actually, it's not political at all.  Bureaucracy is the writer, director and executive producer of the sh*tshow.

Ask yourself this... in a country where the average MD makes $300k, what kind of MD accepts a $100k/year job with the gov't (in the metro area with the highest cost of living in the country, no less)?  And is this the person you want managing a team of CDC researchers who are trying to get things under control?

(Answers: "One that waits for decisions to be made by someone else" and "fu@k no")

Also an answer: one who is participating in the student loan forgiveness program after entering into an agreement with the government that their loans will be eliminated after completing public work. But then at the end of their time, they get told "sorry, we're not honoring that"

[The Sultan]

We're getting on a cruise in two weeks.

Nice to know you.  Who did you will your Scoop moderation to?

[Spotcheck Billy]

We just returned from Jamaica last week, today I read in the Jamaican Observer that they plan to begin heat screening incoming arrivals and likely put any persons with a fever in a 14 day quarantine. I hope no one has a fever from something non-COVID-19.

[Benny B]

Also an answer: one who is participating in the student loan forgiveness program after entering into an agreement with the government that their loans will be eliminated after completing public work. But then at the end of their time, they get told "sorry, we're not honoring that"

In other words, someone who's easily duped by misinformation?

[mu_hilltopper]

Nice to know you.  Who did you will your Scoop moderation to?

We're leaving you guys alone for a week, but I'll have the neighbors look in from time to time, so no parties.

We just returned from Jamaica last week, today I read in the Jamaican Observer that they plan to begin heat screening incoming arrivals and likely put any persons with a fever in a 14 day quarantine. I hope no one has a fever from something non-COVID-19.

Super .. our cruise has a stop in Jamaica.  I guess I'll pack a thermometer and not step off the boat if warm.

[pbiflyer]

I have a source to a healthcare provider, they've received thousands of calls to get tested. The CDC will send them 500 kits ... hopefully by Friday. Sigh.

Friend in Florida went to urgent care with coronavirus symptoms here in Florida. Had been a conference with world wide attendance, as well as in an international terminal in the worlds busiest airport.
Was told that unless he traveled to China or Italy, there was no mechanism in place to test him for the virus. He's out wandering in the world untested.

[mu03eng]

We're leaving you guys alone for a week, but I'll have the neighbors look in from time to time, so no parties.

Super .. our cruise has a stop in Jamaica.  I guess I'll pack a thermometer and not step off the boat if warm.

We were in Mexico at an all-inclusive when the swine flu hit in 2009. We were screened for fevers when we were leaving Mexico(not coming in) at the airport in Mexico. My wife was all nervous we couldn't leave and started to sweat from nerves.....it was actually kind of hysterical to watch(see what I did there?).

At the end of the day, I believe these things:
1. Way more people in the US have/had Covid-19 than we currently know
2. The US government response to Covid-19 is both accidental and intentionally slow. I'm sure testing is slow because we actually don't want to "know" how many have had it for social and political reasons.
3. The lack of information and/or spread of misinformation is a feature not a bug of the mass media. They either knowingly or unknowingly are not asking the right question because there is much more value in panic clicks than reasoned information clicks.

This is clearly going to be a pandemic(already is) and while deaths as a result will be tragic I'm not sure how this is at all preventable and we should really be focusing on limiting the damage and/or building up people's resistance/recovery opportunities.

[Billy Hoyle]

college teams deciding against playing in Seattle or hosing teams from Seattle - UMKC and Chicago State. Though in CSU's case, 1) they won't be missed and 2) it's probably a cost savings ploy on their part seeing how the entire school is in danger of folding.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28833590/chicago-state-men-basketball-team-not-traveling-due-virus-women-home-games-canceled

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28837362/umkc-play-seattle-fear-coronavirus

[jesmu84]

Tax cuts are the best response?

Also, I think a major part of this in the US that doesn't get discussed is the culture of how "bad" it is to miss work if you're sick.

[Billy Hoyle]

Tax cuts are the best response?

Also, I think a major part of this in the US that doesn't get discussed is the culture of how "bad" it is to miss work if you're sick.

especially for those who do not get sick pay.

[PointWarrior]

living here in the CV hotbed of Seattle - good friend who has CV symptoms and an underlying medical condition obtained an order from their doctor to get tested.  They were turned away because they are only testing severely ill (i.e. dying) patients to prove they have it, no proactive testing. Told to go home as they will treat them the same way whether they tested positive or not.  Yep, left to wander the world untested, no peace of mind for those that have come in contact with them, and deeply concerned having an underlying health condition.

Do not let the clowns managing this fool you they have test for everyone who wants one or have this under control....

Friend in Florida went to urgent care with coronavirus symptoms here in Florida. Had been a conference with world wide attendance, as well as in an international terminal in the worlds busiest airport.
Was told that unless he traveled to China or Italy, there was no mechanism in place to test him for the virus. He's out wandering in the world untested.

[JWags85]

3. The lack of information and/or spread of misinformation is a feature not a bug of the mass media. They either knowingly or unknowingly are not asking the right question because there is much more value in panic clicks than reasoned information clicks.

This is clearly going to be a pandemic(already is) and while deaths as a result will be tragic I'm not sure how this is at all preventable and we should really be focusing on limiting the damage and/or building up people's resistance/recovery opportunities.

Bingo. Ive been pretty firmly in the "stop panicking, be logical" camp when it comes to civilian approach and preparation, which has not went well with my GF in NYC who is in the midst of panic and paranoia and racing to the shelves.  That being said, the "counters" of infected people in the US and breaking alerts each time someone dies from CV is shameless click/eyebait designed to rev up the masses.  Cause fear sells and brings ratings.

Someone accused me earlier today of being "callous" towards the elderly when I commented how this is not something "normal" healthy 20/30/40 year olds should be stressing about, its more an elderly/pre-existing condition issue.  Not at all, but the media refuses to make that distinction for reasons mentioned above.  For example, the diagnosed lawyer in NYC has a respiartory condition and the woman who died in LA was elderly.  However, to find out that the majority of these critical or fatal cases is the listed deep in the articles or not at all.   Its wildly irresponsible for sanity and public response control, by design.

[Galway Eagle]

My company just canceled all non essential travel and events. They also sent an email asking for people to consult federal guides before traveling.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/out-of-over-6700-inbound-passengers-75-test-positive-for-covid-19-chinese-custom-officials/articleshow/74474673.cms?from=mdr

If you follow news outside of the US it largely confirms what you are saying. A lot of this news is being suppressed in the domestic news.

The links says that China tested 6700 inbound international travelers that had some sort of respiratory symptoms (essentially if you sniffle you are being tested). Of those over 700 are presumed positive and 75 have been confirmed. That means 1% are confirmed to have covid19, and up to 10% are infected.

This is why companies etc., are being so aggressive in banning travel.

China is testing essentially everyone, so they are getting the best data. The rest of the world, particularly the US is way behind the curve in testing and preparedness. Looks like it is already far more widespread than anyone here is suggesting.

Possibly good news, that means the fatality rate may be closer to 0.3% than the 3.4% reported by the WHO.

forgetful,
See the Rolling Stone interview with Columbia University Virologist that I linked.
She says exactly this.  So many people have and are not getting badly sick and don't get medical attention and don't show up in reporting and puts rate near your lesser estimate which is similar to a typical flu.

[rocket surgeon]

True enough.  Today the WHO said CFR (Case Fatality Rate) appears to be around 3.4%... which is actually quite bad.  I'm just worried that my parents generation (70+) is in much more trouble.  And, they are the ones that aren't taking this seriously.  My parents are getting on a plane to get on a cruise ship on Friday in SA.  I've done all I can to convince them that its a terrible idea, but my mother is a fatalist, so my warnings have fallen on deaf ears.

beware of the source, but interesting article from the epicenter shows the nmbers actually going down

   https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china

[real chili 83]

I work for a national medical society. Our CEO is an MD whose specialization is in infectious disease.

He called a staff meeting today to tell us that every department should have a work-from-home contingency plan, just in case. He also said to stay at home if we or any of our family members feel ill, and to wash our hands. Also, he told us that masks are worthless to prevent catching the virus, and may be counterproductive because they trap moisture and prompt you to touch your face more often.

Overall, he did not seem overly worried; he just would prefer that we err on the side of caution.

He's right. That is built off of CDC guidance. I get to run our pandemic protocol. It's much like what he said.

[WarriorDad]

Ah yes, the, "Blame the media" dogs are out.  Dr. Drew is a media personality, barely a practicing doctor.  He is eating up the attention, just like he always has.  Maybe he should call up Dr. Phil and collaborate on how to save this process.

I'd say that in bizarro world, Dr. Drew is just trying to tow the Trump line here to get a job in the administration... but unfortunately...

He actively practices out west, is on the staff at a hospital, and teaches medicine at USC. 

The panic is not necessary.  One of President Obama's health advisers made similar comments about misinformation and responsibility of reporting.

The mortality rate is dropping and lower than we think.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

[🏀]

I keep seeing video of the thermometer guns... do they really work? ZFB told me the only reliable way to measure body temp is through the rear. (Or maybe it was my grandma... guarantee you after one time being suspected of running a temp, I never got sick again).

The expensive ones are good, the sub $100 not so much.