COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[GooooMarquette]

What many people don't seem to understand (or refuse to acknowledge) is that the virus will continue to circulate and replicate long after most American adults are vaccinated. That's because (1) the vaccines are still not approved in the US for kids under 16; and (2) most countries are WAY behind the US in vaccinating their populations because they don't yet have access. Additionally, it is still speculated that vaccinated adults can harbor and pass the virus.

This continued circulation will lead to more mutations, which could lead to vaccine-resistant variants, which could lead to another whole round of hospitalizations and deaths.

The best way to avoid such a resurgence of sickness and death is to practice continued mask-wearing and some degree of social distancing until we have achieved something resembling worldwide herd immunity. And that may be quite a while....

[cheebs09]

If you actually listened to his interview, you would know that he explicitly said he wouldn't comment on any timeline regarding mask wearing, because it would just be a guess, and the headlines would be that "Fauci says masks until 20xx". He said he is hopeful that vaccines will do their job and life will return to normal, but any timelines is pure speculation.

So, maybe actually listen to the good doctor, instead of spouting off.

That's refreshing to hear. I definitely value Dr. Fauci's insights and trust what he says, but also feel he's gotten himself in some trouble with timelines.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

What many people don't seem to understand (or refuse to acknowledge) is that the virus will continue to circulate and replicate long after most American adults are vaccinated. That's because (1) the vaccines are still not approved in the US for kids under 16; and (2) most countries are WAY behind the US in vaccinating their populations because they don't yet have access. Additionally, it is still speculated that vaccinated adults can harbor and pass the virus.

This continued circulation will lead to more mutations, which could lead to vaccine-resistant variants, which could lead to another whole round of hospitalizations and deaths.

The best way to avoid such a resurgence of sickness and death is to practice continued mask-wearing and some degree of social distancing until we have achieved something resembling worldwide herd immunity. And that may be quite a while....

I think people understand this concept and are likely calculating that COVID will become endemic.  However, I think you are under-estimating the public's ability or willingness to get back to normal life once the severity is knocked down with vaccines. 

I can tell you most of my personal health choices are driven by the potential for hospitals being over-run and prior to the vaccines, respect for healthcare workers/family by lessening the potential for spread.
My calculus isnt about fighting a virus that is inevitably with us at this point.  If it mutates to be more severe, sure my choices would change, but until that point I'm going to rely on a vaccine and periodic boosters.

[GooooMarquette]

I think people understand this concept and are likely calculating that COVID will become endemic.  However, I think you are under-estimating the public's ability or willingness to get back to normal life once the severity is knocked down with vaccines. 

Actually, I have a very realistic view of what most of the American public will likely do. I expect most to stop wearing masks by sometime this summer, and go back mostly to pre-Covid behavior.

The purpose of my post was to suggest that this is not necessarily the best approach in the long run....

[MUfan12]

Actually, I have a very realistic view of what most of the American public will likely do. I expect most to stop wearing masks by sometime this summer, and go back mostly to pre-Covid behavior.

Disagree, mainly because most won't be allowed to. You think we'll see mask rules rolled back this summer? Capacity limits gone? The messaging is already laying the ground work to keep masks/distancing in place well past this summer.

[GooooMarquette]

Disagree, mainly because most won't be allowed to. You think we'll see mask rules rolled back this summer? Capacity limits gone? The messaging is already laying the ground work to keep masks/distancing in place well past this summer.

That would be prudent from a disease management standpoint...but I tend to agree with Frenns that the public pushback will be too strong.

Time will tell.

[GrimmReaper33]

Disagree, mainly because most won't be allowed to. You think we'll see mask rules rolled back this summer? Capacity limits gone? The messaging is already laying the ground work to keep masks/distancing in place well past this summer.

I think there will be significant public pushback, if that's the case.  I mean we all see people now going into stores without a mask, even though 'rules' require them.  Once it gets to Summer and more of the general public is vaccinated and less concerned, the number of people doing that will increase drastically. 

Maybe some concert/sports venues, Disney World, things like that may still limit capacity, but most other things will be back to normal.  It's already happening.  We went out to eat at a popular brunch spot on Saturday.  This is in WI, so no limited capacity requirements. 

There was a 45 minute wait and every table was filled the whole time we were there. 

[tower912]

500,000.   More than WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, 9/11 combined.


#noworsethantheflu

[Galway Eagle]

500,000.   More than WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, 9/11 combined.


#noworsethantheflu

What insane is as far as pandemics go this isn't that bad. Justinian or Black plagues must've been completely unimaginable and you get a lot more real life context after living through this.

[tower912]

And this one is really just a shot across the bow.

Wait until one comes along this contagious with a 10% mortality rate that also affects children.


Better keep sciencing.

[The Sultan]

I think there will be significant public pushback, if that's the case.  I mean we all see people now going into stores without a mask, even though 'rules' require them.  Once it gets to Summer and more of the general public is vaccinated and less concerned, the number of people doing that will increase drastically. 

Maybe some concert/sports venues, Disney World, things like that may still limit capacity, but most other things will be back to normal.  It's already happening.  We went out to eat at a popular brunch spot on Saturday.  This is in WI, so no limited capacity requirements. 

There was a 45 minute wait and every table was filled the whole time we were there. 

I completely agree with this.  Sure I can see the Brewers, Summerfest and other large public events limiting capacity, and you may see large stores still requiring masks, but you will see restaurants and bars starting to bring back capacity and people shedding masks and moving on.  And the political will won't be there.

And at this point I am OK with that.  If the most vulnerable are vaccinated, the rest are engaging in the level of risk they find acceptable.

[The Sultan]

What insane is as far as pandemics go this isn't that bad. Justinian or Black plagues must've been completely unimaginable and you get a lot more real life context after living through this.

Right but neither of those would be nearly as deadly now as they were back then.

[Galway Eagle]

Right but neither of those would be nearly as deadly now as they were back then.

I think you missed my point. Simply just that it unimaginable what a considerably more deadly pandemic must've been like.

[jesmu84]

I think you missed my point. Simply just that it unimaginable what a considerably more deadly pandemic must've been like.

I imagine just as many people then would have claimed it was a witch's curse as now claim it's a political hoax.

[The Sultan]

I think you missed my point. Simply just that it unimaginable what a considerably more deadly pandemic must've been like.

Oh I agree with that.

[MU82]

That would be prudent from a disease management standpoint...but I tend to agree with Frenns that the public pushback will be too strong.

Yep. I mean we have a dentist on here who equates wearing masks and social distancing with "hiding in the basement." Others look at 500K dead Americans, shrug, and parrot their leader with: "It affects virtually nobody."

The appetite for continued serious mitigation efforts already is very low.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

500,000.   More than WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, 9/11 combined.


#noworsethantheflu

"This is the common cold, folks."
   -- Noted healthcare expert (opioids, carcinogens, infectious diseases to name but a few) Limbaugh

[JWags85]

The appetite for continued serious mitigation efforts already is very low.

There is a difference between refusing to do the very minimum and shrugging off the severity of it, and being willing to dutifully continue with every stated precaution even after being vaccinated.  That's a very different animal IMO.  If, like GOO states, the prudent thing would be to continue to mask well into 2022 or beyond? Good luck.  I understand the fallibility of timelines when dealing with epidemiology and evolving science, but the constant shifting, even with the best intentions, can desensitize and exhaust even respectful and conscientious members of society.

For me, it kind of boils down to, would you rather more people vaccinate and then begin to live life as normal, or have people be wary of the vaccine or think "what's the point" and continue with moderate vaccinate numbers and pushing for masking and social distancing, cause I don't think expecting both is logical.  I mean, it's really the same school of though that people should wear masks if they feel ill or during flu season.  Maybe that's the most responsible epidemiological response, but that seems pretty unrealistic

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

There is a difference between refusing to do the very minimum and shrugging off the severity of it, and being willingly to dutifully continue with every stated precaution even after being vaccinated.  That's a very different animal IMO.  If, like GOO states, the prudent thing would be to continue to mask well into 2022 or beyond? Good luck.  I understand the fallibility of timelines when dealing with epidemiology and evolving science, but the constant shifting, even with the best intentions, can desensitize and exhaust even respectful and contentious members of society.

For me, it kind of boils down to, would you rather more people vaccinate and then begin to live life as normal, or have people be wary of the vaccine or think "what's the point" and continue with moderate vaccinate numbers and pushing for masking and social distancing, cause I don't think expecting both is logical.  I mean, it's really the same school of though that people should wear masks if they feel ill or during flu season.  Maybe that's the most responsible epidemiological response, but that seems pretty unrealistic

That's kind of where I am.  I think early compliance criticism was warranted, but many to most people are following advice these days.

i understand why they don't know yet if people are infectious post vaccine, but answering that question could be really critical .  It may not make a huge difference to public health, but if they could say "get the vaccine and ditch the mask after x weeks", it would be the best vaccination campaign money could buy.

[JWags85]

That's kind of where I am.  I think early compliance criticism was warranted, but many to most people are following advice these days.

i understand why they don't know yet if people are infectious post vaccine, but answering that question could be really critical .  It may not make a huge difference to public health, but if they could say "get the vaccine and ditch the mask after x weeks", it would be the best vaccination campaign money could buy.

Yep.  I mean for all the talk of super spreader events, we all know someone who wears a mask, keep distance, do the right things...and still got COVID.  I mean, of the 3 most careful people I know regarding COVID, 2 got it including my GF who at the time was working from home and left the house only to grocery shop or the occasional errand and used enough hand sanitizer that the car smelled like a Purel plant.  The one of the 3 who didn't was my aforementioned Grandma who is on oxygen and literally doesn't leave the house.

Meaning, it's all about mitigating risk cause there is so much unknown and funky about contraction and it's spread. But at a certain point, with the best single risk mitigation factor you can apply (the vaccine), there will largely be a move back to normality. Cause without a firm "when  X number of shots, the country will be at an acceptable level to move forward without masks" or some similar edict, the fluid timelines are gonna become less and less palatable

[GooooMarquette]

There is a difference between refusing to do the very minimum and shrugging off the severity of it, and being willing to dutifully continue with every stated precaution even after being vaccinated.  That's a very different animal IMO.  If, like GOO states, the prudent thing would be to continue to mask well into 2022 or beyond? Good luck.  I understand the fallibility of timelines when dealing with epidemiology and evolving science, but the constant shifting, even with the best intentions, can desensitize and exhaust even respectful and conscientious members of society.

For me, it kind of boils down to, would you rather more people vaccinate and then begin to live life as normal, or have people be wary of the vaccine or think "what's the point" and continue with moderate vaccinate numbers and pushing for masking and social distancing, cause I don't think expecting both is logical.  I mean, it's really the same school of though that people should wear masks if they feel ill or during flu season.  Maybe that's the most responsible epidemiological response, but that seems pretty unrealistic

I think we are pretty much on the same page with this. I have been extremely cautious - many would say overly so - and also quite patient about getting back to normal. But even I am getting 'COVID-fatigue,' so I totally understand why the public at large would feel this way.

And if the public views vaccines vs masks and social distancing as an 'either/or' proposition, I would certainly hope we vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate and then ease up on the masks, as opposed to the other way around.

[The Sultan]

I also think the message, "even if you get the vaccine things are going to take awhile to get back to normal" is one that is going to frustrate a lot of people.

This vaccine is pretty terrific.  Even those who get sick aren't getting so sick that they are going to hospitals and dying.  We should be celebrating this!  And as Frenn's said, the ability for people to return to something normal is what is going to drive them to get vaccinated.  There should be an entire push around that!

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I keep seeing summaries on the vaccines.
1) If you get a vaccine your are not dying.  Period.
2) If you get the vaccine and you get sick you will not get a severe case of COVID.  You won't end up in the hospital.
3) Sounds like there is plenty of real world January data now that completely backs up the vaccine study results.

Winter is really wearing on my COVID-fatigue.  I'm still taking plenty of cautions and still won't eat out, inside a restaurant, until vaccinated.

[GooooMarquette]

I keep seeing summaries on the vaccines.
1) If you get a vaccine your are not dying.  Period.
2) If you get the vaccine and you get sick you will not get a severe case of COVID.  You won't end up in the hospital.
3) Sounds like there is plenty of real world January data now that completely backs up the vaccine study results.

Winter is really wearing on my COVID-fatigue.  I'm still taking plenty of cautions and still won't eat out, inside a restaurant, until vaccinated.

Good summary.

I would add: 4) The vaccine appears to give significant protection against the current variants, but at a slightly lower level than against the original strain.

The only significant question I haven't seen answered yet is whether the vaccine will prevent mild disease that then turns into 'long-haul' symptoms. Researchers are trying to figure this out.

https://www.theverge.com/22266344/covid-vaccine-protection-chronic-long-haul

[MU82]

Nice to have a sane, empathetic, decent leader who thinks about more than enriching himself ...

https://apnews.com/article/biden-inauguration-joe-biden-donald-trump-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-19-pandemic-617e9759d427af84320eae7b8d7b40c1?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AP%20Morning%20Wire&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers