COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[pacearrow02]

And from what I could tell the vast majority of bar patrons fell into that 20-29 age group.
Occum wins again!

What are you doing out in the bars right now???  Do as I say not as I do!!

[pbiflyer]

What are you doing out in the bars right now???  Do as I say not as I do!!

Using your logic:
So you were out protesting?????

There is this thing called the internet. It has videos and pictures and stuff. You can actually see what's going on.

[The Sultan]

This is getting a lot of attention from Docs tonight.  Not positive but a rare media quote from the CDC

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/cdc-says-us-has-way-too-much-virus-to-control-pandemic-as-cases-surge-across-country.html

Sweden looking at us:

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Interview with the former head of the CDC.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/dr-tom-frieden-blaming-cdc-us-covid-failures-like-blaming-someone/

[MarquetteDano]

My lord... last time I looked (a day ago?) at the COVID-19 Dashboard we had 126,000 deaths.  Now we are nearly at 130,000?

Ugh.

[Hards Alumni]

Hey guys, remember when we couldn't go back to shutdown?  Seems like the hard hit states are doing that.

The rest of us won't be far behind.

Odd that a lot of people who don't want to wear masks are the same ones that want everything to be opened up, schools started in the fall, and the economy back to normal.

I'd love to see a poll on the overlap of those people.

At this point, we are watching a slow death.

[GooooMarquette]

Hey guys, remember when we couldn't go back to shutdown?  Seems like the hard hit states are doing that.

The rest of us won't be far behind.

Yep. As recently as a week or two ago, many were saying that we would never turn back once we reopened. Now we are seeing many states pause reopening, and some even begin to reverse course. And while this is currently occurring mostly in red states that led the vanguard of reopening, it is quickly spreading even to blue states that followed along.

I understand we could not ignore the dire economic reality of remaining shut down, but in reopening too soon we exposed ourselves to the even more dire reality of reopening, allowing more spread of the virus, and then shutting back down. The cost of ignoring science.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

If this holds up in review it should put to bed the role and prevalence of asymptomatic carriers (45% Of survey and shedded virus).  Also has peak shedding as the two days prior to symptom onset.  Interesting study. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2488-1_reference.pdf

[forgetful]

If this holds up in review it should put to bed the role and prevalence of asymptomatic carriers (45% Of survey and shedded virus).  Also has peak shedding as the two days prior to symptom onset.  Interesting study. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2488-1_reference.pdf

Interesting study, but according to their numbers and methods, they didn't do anything to correct for possible false positives in their testing. With such a low prevalence 2.6% (first round) and 1.2% (second round), false positives will make up a considerable portion of the results. So likely most of the "asymptomatic" carriers were likely simply not even infected.

In fact, depending on the lab technique all of the "asymptomatic" cases could be ascribed to false positives, and not actual infections. That is part of the difficulty in assessing some of this data.

There have been specific labs that have had up to 8% false positive rates, because of bad technique.

[MarquetteDano]

My lord... last time I looked (a day ago?) at the COVID-19 Dashboard we had 126,000 deaths.  Now we are nearly at 130,000?

Ugh.

Looks like there has been a revision back down to 126,300 as of this typing.  Thank God.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Interesting study, but according to their numbers and methods, they didn't do anything to correct for possible false positives in their testing. With such a low prevalence 2.6% (first round) and 1.2% (second round), false positives will make up a considerable portion of the results. So likely most of the "asymptomatic" carriers were likely simply not even infected.

In fact, depending on the lab technique all of the "asymptomatic" cases could be ascribed to false positives, and not actual infections. That is part of the difficulty in assessing some of this data.

There have been specific labs that have had up to 8% false positive rates, because of bad technique.

Even with that, wouldn't the low end of the asymptomatic high 30's to low 40's. 

[forgetful]

Even with that, wouldn't the low end of the asymptomatic high 30's to low 40's.

Maybe I was misreading something in the paper, but I thought they were saying, of the 2.6%/1.2% that tested positive, 40ish% were asymptomatic.

My assertion is that if they have a 1-2% false positive rate in testing, then they would expect 1-2% of tests to come back as a false positive, that is almost the same as their actual prevalence, which suggests that what they are calling "asymptomatic" is in all actuality, just a false positive.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Maybe I was misreading something in the paper, but I thought they were saying, of the 2.6%/1.2% that tested positive, 40ish% were asymptomatic.

My assertion is that if they have a 1-2% false positive rate in testing, then they would expect 1-2% of tests to come back as a false positive, that is almost the same as their actual prevalence, which suggests that what they are calling "asymptomatic" is in all actuality, just a false positive.

That's why I asked.  I misunderstood your point.  Your math makes sense to me

[JWags85]

Hey guys, remember when we couldn't go back to shutdown?  Seems like the hard hit states are doing that.

The rest of us won't be far behind.

Odd that a lot of people who don't want to wear masks are the same ones that want everything to be opened up, schools started in the fall, and the economy back to normal.

I'd love to see a poll on the overlap of those people.

At this point, we are watching a slow death.

This is a hysterical and dramatic statement. How many of the states that are experienced "severe" outbreaks truly shut down and flattened the curve on the first wave? Besides California?

How many states that opened up in phases or "followed the science" are being run over by insane hospitalization rates and COVID running amuck?

For someone who is insistent on following the science and data, claiming that Wisconsin, for example, is not far behind places like Texas and Arizona or Florida is asinine.

The leadership at the top sucks. Yes. There are areas of the country where COVID is a severe problem over the last 2 weeks. Yes. There are plenty of stupid people who don't like wearing masks, sure.  But to ignore the immense progress and control of the virus in huge segments of the country and claim we're all going to hell in a hand basket cause a few states are having issues, most of which never went through the lengths the rest of the country did, is just Chicken Little disaster prognosticating

[tower912]

If masks became universal and not partisan, things would improve.   Also, accept that bars, theaters, stadiums are bad ideas.

[Jockey]

This is a hysterical and dramatic statement. How many of the states that are experienced "severe" outbreaks truly shut down and flattened the curve on the first wave? Besides California?

How many states that opened up in phases or "followed the science" are being run over by insane hospitalization rates and COVID running amuck?

For someone who is insistent on following the science and data, claiming that Wisconsin, for example, is not far behind places like Texas and Arizona or Florida is asinine.

The leadership at the top sucks. Yes. There are areas of the country where COVID is a severe problem over the last 2 weeks. Yes. There are plenty of stupid people who don't like wearing masks, sure.  But to ignore the immense progress and control of the virus in huge segments of the country and claim we're all going to hell in a hand basket cause a few states are having issues, most of which never went through the lengths the rest of the country did, is just Chicken Little disaster prognosticating

I assume you are referring to Dr. Fauci when you say "chicken little". You sound like Rand Paul today saying we just need more optimism.

[mu03eng]

If masks became universal and not partisan, things would improve.   Also, accept that bars, theaters, stadiums are bad ideas.

Agreed, also we should agree that on the whole we are much better off now than we were 3 months ago

[Hards Alumni]

This is a hysterical and dramatic statement. How many of the states that are experienced "severe" outbreaks truly shut down and flattened the curve on the first wave? Besides California?

How many states that opened up in phases or "followed the science" are being run over by insane hospitalization rates and COVID running amuck?

For someone who is insistent on following the science and data, claiming that Wisconsin, for example, is not far behind places like Texas and Arizona or Florida is asinine.

The leadership at the top sucks. Yes. There are areas of the country where COVID is a severe problem over the last 2 weeks. Yes. There are plenty of stupid people who don't like wearing masks, sure.  But to ignore the immense progress and control of the virus in huge segments of the country and claim we're all going to hell in a hand basket cause a few states are having issues, most of which never went through the lengths the rest of the country did, is just Chicken Little disaster prognosticating

There is nothing hysterical about it.  Cases are increasing, and it is directly related to bars and restaurants.  We're going to lock them down too.  If you don't think that is coming you're blind, bud.

[GooooMarquette]

This is a hysterical and dramatic statement. How many of the states that are experienced "severe" outbreaks truly shut down and flattened the curve on the first wave? Besides California?

How many states that opened up in phases or "followed the science" are being run over by insane hospitalization rates and COVID running amuck?

For someone who is insistent on following the science and data, claiming that Wisconsin, for example, is not far behind places like Texas and Arizona or Florida is asinine.

The leadership at the top sucks. Yes. There are areas of the country where COVID is a severe problem over the last 2 weeks. Yes. There are plenty of stupid people who don't like wearing masks, sure.  But to ignore the immense progress and control of the virus in huge segments of the country and claim we're all going to hell in a hand basket cause a few states are having issues, most of which never went through the lengths the rest of the country did, is just Chicken Little disaster prognosticating

The answer to your underlined question is "none," but it is a disappointingly small sample size because only three states (NY, CT and IL) actually "followed the science" required by the CDC's three-phase reopening plan before reopening.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/499915-only-three-states-have-met-the-white-houses

As to possible rollbacks...will other states follow suit? Time will tell, but as of today at least 17 states have already rolled back or paused reopening plans, and here in MN the governor is threatening to close bars if they don't do a better job enforcing current guidelines for social distancing. Further, a full 35 states have seen an increase in their 7-day average of documented new cases (with 13 states remaining steady, and only 2 states plus DC decreasing). Most of the increases are not nearly as dramatic as those in TX, FL, AZ and CA, but the trend is not moving in a good direction.

Seventeen states pausing: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/06/30/covid-cases-states-pausing-reopening-plans-list/3284513001/

MN Governor might close bars: https://www.twincities.com/2020/06/29/with-hundreds-tied-to-coronavirus-outbreaks-from-bars-walz-threatens-harsher-actions/

Thirty-five states seeing increases: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

So what does this mean regarding other states moving back? I would be really surprised if all do it, but if rates continue to climb as we move back from summer into fall, it doesn't seem that far-fetched to imagine that many will. Time will tell.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Agreed, also we should agree that on the whole we are much better off now than we were 3 months ago

Absolutely today. 

I think the reason you are hearing a lot of caution/hyperbole (scoopers or doctors or media, pick your source) is that some believe the real test is the fall.  Today's situation puts us in a worse position for that.

[JWags85]

The answer to your underlined question is "none," but it is a disappointingly small sample size because only three states (NY, CT and IL) actually "followed the science" required by the CDC's three-phase reopening plan before reopening.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/499915-only-three-states-have-met-the-white-houses

As to possible rollbacks...will other states follow suit? Time will tell, but as of today at least 17 states have already rolled back or paused reopening plans, and here in MN the governor is threatening to close bars if they don't do a better job enforcing current guidelines for social distancing. Further, a full 35 states have seen an increase in their 7-day average of documented new cases (with 13 states remaining steady, and only 2 states plus DC decreasing). Most of the increases are not nearly as dramatic as those in TX, FL, AZ and CA, but the trend is not moving in a good direction.

Seventeen states pausing: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/06/30/covid-cases-states-pausing-reopening-plans-list/3284513001/

MN Governor might close bars: https://www.twincities.com/2020/06/29/with-hundreds-tied-to-coronavirus-outbreaks-from-bars-walz-threatens-harsher-actions/

Thirty-five states seeing increases: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

So what does this mean regarding other states moving back? I would be really surprised if all do it, but if rates continue to climb as we move back from summer into fall, it doesn't seem that far-fetched to imagine that many will. Time will tell.

Thanks for links and measured responses instead of the expected condescending BS.

I guess I look at places like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Colorado... there are upticks in new cases, but their per capita levels are still low, most if not all have measures in place. It's not saying "we've beat COVID!" but it's not "this will be Arizona 2.0 in a couple weeks, just you watch".

Maybe some places close bars again, and that's fine. But that's a far cry from a second lockdown coming nationwide. Especially when some of those places didn't have the levels of medical crisis when flattening the curve the first time around

[Jockey]

Agreed, also we should agree that on the whole we are much better off now than we were 3 months ago

Are we? The horrific numbers of 3 months ago were driven by 3 states.

You're a lot more optimistic than I am. I hope you are right and I am wrong.

[Jockey]

I guess I look at places like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Colorado... there are upticks in new cases, but their per capita levels are still low, most if not all have measures in place. It's not saying "we've beat COVID!" but it's not "this will be Arizona 2.0 in a couple weeks, just you watch".

The problem is that the states you mention had strong stay at home orders. That is what kept cases down, but that safety net is no longer in place. A large swath of our population is no longer taking any precautions. That does not portend well for a month from now. A

[mu03eng]

Are we? The horrific numbers of 3 months ago were driven by 3 states.

You're a lot more optimistic than I am. I hope you are right and I am wrong.

I'm optimistic today by early data analysis, I'll hold off on the full declaration until Thursday next week.

[Hards Alumni]

The problem is that the states you mention had strong stay at home orders. That is what kept cases down, but that safety net is no longer in place. A large swath of our population is no longer taking any precautions. That does not portend well for a month from now. A

Exactly.  I'm certainly not rooting against us, especially because it is financially disastrous on a personal level. 

I'm not sure JWags gets outside the city much.  I have in-laws who still won't take this seriously.  So when it gets to the rural places (and it will with the way that bars are currently operating) we will see more people from those communities getting sick.