COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Jay Bee]

What changed from a few days ago?

https://twitter.com/JBBauer612/status/1246254792911073283?s=20

Absolutely nothing, my stalker friend.

Cute, fairy tale hopes are nice to see sometimes.

They don't produce results.

#LastDays

[🏀]

What changed from a few days ago?

https://twitter.com/JBBauer612/status/1246254792911073283?s=20

This thing is a wild card, takes one through a range of emotions. JBs in a bit of a rut, he'll come out.

[withoutbias]

Why is coming up with a vaccine considered a guarantee?

[Jockey]

Absolutely nothing, my stalker friend.

Cute, fairy tale hopes are nice to see sometimes.

They don't produce results.

#LastDays

It's tough on everybody. Especially low wage workers who have lost their jobs.

Enough of the whining, already.

Man up.

[Jay Bee]

It's tough on everybody. Especially low wage workers who have lost their jobs.

Enough of the whining, already.

Man up.

Who's whining? I'm just speaking reality, punk.

We're screwed without some incredibly positive developments... which have not yet occurred.

That's facts, bub.

[Lennys Tap]

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=60306.msg1228484#msg1228484

Here is my take.  Idk why they decided to throw numbers around two weeks ago as a task force, but they did.  It seemed odd then as it does now.

My problem is how wildly inaccurate the models Dr Fauci and co. cited are proving to be. Dropping estimates 65% in a week is wonderful - but where were the numbers they predicted last week coming from? Imagine if they went the other way and the mean changed from 170,000 to 500,000 in a weeks time.

[injuryBug]

Antibody testing and herd immunity will get us live sports this year.  things will start to open slowly.  There was a podcast a few days ago with fauci about how we open up slowly.
Maybe restaurants start with 50% capacity, the virus will be around and people will pass it at a slower pace.  This will help build the herd immunity and buy time for antibody testing to be widespread.

[injuryBug]

My problem is how wildly inaccurate the models Dr Fauci and co. cited are proving to be. Dropping estimates 65% in a week is wonderful - but where were the numbers they predicted last week coming from? Imagine if they went the other way and the mean changed from 170,000 to 500,000 in a weeks time.

models are only as good as the numbers you put in

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

My problem is how wildly inaccurate the models Dr Fauci and co. cited are proving to be. Dropping estimates 65% in a week is wonderful - but where were the numbers they predicted last week coming from? Imagine if they went the other way and the mean changed from 170,000 to 500,000 in a weeks time.

My conspiracy theory is conservative assumptions because the boss loves beating numbers.  But that's just me.

I also listen to exactly what Fauci says.  In fact sometimes it's better to read his stuff. I seem to remember his quote was '100k wouldn't surprise me' initially.   

[🏀]

Who's whining? I'm just speaking reality, punk.

We're screwed without some incredibly positive developments... which have not yet occurred.

That's facts, bub.

Like 115,000 Americans are screwed. Well, and then the majority of cured Americans with permanent respiratory issues are screwed a bit. Eff those boomers anyway, it's not like their retirement funds aren't safe.

Then there's the GenX and Millennials trying to rebuild America out of a massive rut with stringent work space guidelines. Millennials sure did get a crap sandwich of a generation to deal with, aina?

[forgetful]

The hydroxy controversy is just the modern day example of the criticism that has been going on for the past 3 1/2years. It's time people who cannot separate their politics from medicine get out of the way.  allow the doctors who know how to treat people with this drug, (for the time being)do what they have to do to save lives. 

    even a vaccine on the fast track would take a couple of years and God knows what side effects it would still carry with it. Hydroxy has a 60 year track record. People who have been on it for malaria prevention or arthritis have not come down with covid despite knowing being exposed



https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/491932-hydroxy-hysteria-when-saving-lives-collides-with-politics-and-bureaucracy

Maybe it has nothing to do with politics and entirely to do with data. Right now there are more studies showing that it doesn't work, than there are suggesting that it does.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/hyped-malaria-drug-not-showing-much-effect-at-one-paris-hospital

Now, we are doing the largest and best trials in the US right now. So let's see what they say. But right now, the science and controlled trials say it doesn't work, and may be harmful because of side effects.

[forgetful]

My problem is how wildly inaccurate the models Dr Fauci and co. cited are proving to be. Dropping estimates 65% in a week is wonderful - but where were the numbers they predicted last week coming from? Imagine if they went the other way and the mean changed from 170,000 to 500,000 in a weeks time.

There has been some public discussion of the changes in the models. The models themselves are accurate, but as others have noted they are very dependent on the variables you put in.

They have discussed that the original models assumed that less than 50% of people would actually follow the quarantine guidelines. That led to higher mortality. It turned out that parameter estimation was off, and people are really sticking to the guidelines pretty rigorously. The result is they can now use a higher %, and the mortality predictions have dropped considerably.

If people stop following the guidelines, the mortality will shoot back up to the original estimates.

[Jockey]

Who's whining? I'm just speaking reality, punk.

We're screwed without some incredibly positive developments... which have not yet occurred.

That's facts, bub.

[NorthernDancerColt]

Why is coming up with a vaccine considered a guarantee?

It never was, isn't, nor will it ever be.

WHO 2019-20 Assessments: China $130Million. USA $229 Million.

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation: an "unassessed" lol, cool $200 Million.

FOLLOW THE MONEY. Ya think ole Billy feels he has a right to write world health policy?!!

But but "conspiracy".

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Austria starting to reopen.  Did a sample though and only 1% of population had the virus—they were hopeful it was higher I think. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/austria-will-start-to-reopen-next-week-11586386670?mod=e2fb

[Hards Alumni]

It never was, isn't, nor will it ever be.

WHO 2019-20 Assessments: China $130Million. USA $229 Million.

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation: an "unassessed" lol, cool $200 Million.

FOLLOW THE MONEY. Ya think ole Billy feels he has a right to write world health policy?!!

But but "conspiracy".

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Why is coming up with a vaccine considered a guarantee?

I don't think it is. Look at the virus that causes AIDS--still no vaccine for HIV after 40 years. BUT, treatments have progressed to the point where they can lower the amount of virus in the bloodstream to nearly undetectable levels.

We could be on a similar path here. Even if a vaccine proves to be elusive or only partially effective like flu vaccines, some combo of the drugs being tested may have the capacity to make COVID highly treatable.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

The hydroxy controversy is just the modern day example of the criticism that has been going on for the past 3 1/2years. It's time people who cannot separate their politics from medicine get out of the way.  allow the doctors who know how to treat people with this drug, (for the time being)do what they have to do to save lives. 

    even a vaccine on the fast track would take a couple of years and God knows what side effects it would still carry with it. Hydroxy has a 60 year track record. People who have been on it for malaria prevention or arthritis have not come down with covid despite knowing being exposed

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/491932-hydroxy-hysteria-when-saving-lives-collides-with-politics-and-bureaucracy

Trump was told about one very flawed French study using the drug and began touting it as a miracle cure.  Dutifully the entire right wing echo chamber began repeating him, promoting this as THE treatment, despite zero scientific evidence yet.  And so the Fox News watchers/Rush Limbaugh listeners repeat the same thing.  It has since evolved into the latest bit of the cultural war, with anybody who says, "Gee, maybe we should test this first," accused of hating the President.

There are 70-odd drugs (Edit: now 100+ drugs, see post in the "Hydroxychloroquinine updates (and other potential treatments)" thread) being tested in 200+ scientific trials currently underway.  Why don't we take the scientific approach and see which one or ones actually work instead of endlessly promoting a non-doctor's gut feeling?

[🏀]

Trump was told about one very flawed French study using the drug and began touting it as a miracle cure.  Dutifully the entire right wing echo chamber began repeating him, promoting this as THE treatment, despite zero scientific evidence yet.  And so the Fox News watchers/Rush Limbaugh listeners repeat the same thing.  It has since evolved into the latest bit of the cultural war, with anybody who says, "Gee, maybe we should test this first," accused of hating the President.

There are 70-odd drugs being tested in 200+ scientific trials currently underway.  Why don't we take the scientific approach and see which one or ones actually work instead of endlessly promoting a non-doctor's gut feeling?

Parallels to Ron Burgundy and the teleprompter.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This is a really grim article but It shows a universal problem of understanding the breadth of the pandemic when it hits an area hard.  There were similar stories in other western hot spots like Italy. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html

[The Sultan]

Trump was told about one very flawed French study using the drug and began touting it as a miracle cure.  Dutifully the entire right wing echo chamber began repeating him, promoting this as THE treatment, despite zero scientific evidence yet.  And so the Fox News watchers/Rush Limbaugh listeners repeat the same thing.  It has since evolved into the latest bit of the cultural war, with anybody who says, "Gee, maybe we should test this first," accused of hating the President.

There are 70-odd drugs (Edit: now 100+ drugs, see post in the "Hydroxychloroquinine updates (and other potential treatments)" thread) being tested in 200+ scientific trials currently underway.  Why don't we take the scientific approach and see which one or ones actually work instead of endlessly promoting a non-doctor's gut feeling?

It really would be great if Hydroxy works like people want it to.

But it doesn't according to objective evidence.  But this is a great example of how Trump is handling this wrong.  He wants this to be over quickly.  He is seeking a simple solution to a complex problem.  He lacks the intellectual rigor and attention to detail to understand that it's not that simple.

On top of that, he won't shut up about it.  So what that has meant is that there are serious shortages for people who rely on that drug - where it is PROVEN to help.  Like with lupus. 

So his touting of that drug is causing harm to other people.  He needs to let the process play out.  He's not a doctor.  He's not a scientist.  He's a poor real estate developer and excellent personal brand manager.  What makes people think he knows how to manage and cure this disease?

[mu_hilltopper]

Antibody testing and herd immunity will get us live sports this year. 

I was thinking about herd immunity from a math perspective.

We're at 470k cases in the US.  Let's say the real count is 10x that, so we're at 4.7m.    That means a whopping 1.4% of the US's 330m population has been infected. 

The last week or so, we're getting 30k positive cases per day, so let's say that's really undercounted by 10x, so 300k per day.


The lowest herd immunity %age I could find that was helpful is 40%.   

Even at 300k new cases per day, it would take 1100 days (3+ YEARS) to reach even 40% herd immunity.  Even if my numbers are off by a factor of 2, we're a loonnnnng way off.  And 40% is super low anyhow, it might take 80% or 95%.


And that's only if you stay at 300k per day.  The case rate is likely steady/dropping over the next few weeks.


That leaves immunity thru vaccines as the best possibility.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I was thinking about herd immunity from a math perspective.

We're at 470k cases in the US.  Let's say the real count is 10x that, so we're at 4.7m.    That means a whopping 1.4% of the US's 330m population has been infected. 

The last week or so, we're getting 30k positive cases per day, so let's say that's really undercounted by 10x, so 300k per day.


The lowest herd immunity %age I could find that was helpful is 40%.   

Even at 300k new cases per day, it would take 1100 days (3+ YEARS) to reach even 40% herd immunity.  Even if my numbers are off by a factor of 2, we're a loonnnnng way off.  And 40% is super low anyhow, it might take 80% or 95%.


And that's only if you stay at 300k per day.  The case rate is likely steady/dropping over the next few weeks.


That leaves immunity thru vaccines as the best possibility.

I agree with this and did some similar math on NY earlier in this thread.  The only hope is that upon antibody testing we find out the unreported factor is much higher.  Unfortunately though with SK (low antibody in some mild cases) and the Austria article posted above it seems like just a hope. 

Therapy-Vaccine-social distancing seem to be the best options at the moment.   

[Eldon]

models are only as good as the numbers you put in

"All models are wrong, but some are useful."

[tower912]

I think JB is frustrated and is channeling it into trolling.    No one actually believes that this is the end.   There are certainly going to be lessons learned and structural and societal changes on the back end.