COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Jockey]

It's OK folks, the President *still* says it will just go away.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1278413075327021056

Trump: "I think we're going to be very good with the coronavirus. I think that, at some point, that's going to sort of just disappear, I hope."
Fox: "You still believe so, disappear?"
Trump: "Well, I do."

He said it in March, April, May, June, and July.

Maybe he lives by the "even a blind squirrel is right twice a day" axiom.

[mu03eng]

Also, lasting lung damage in asymptomatic patients.

https://www.azfamily.com/news/continuing_coverage/coronavirus_coverage/new-arizona-concern-study-shows-asymptomatic-covid-patients-could-have-long-term-lung-damage/article_64903642-bb36-11ea-b48c-efd576ab9ba1.html

Seems overly nitpicky but if they are experiencing lung damage they aren't asymptomatic right?

Reminds me of Robin William's stand up on the alestro additives to make non-fat chips "it said anal leakage my be a side effect, I'm sorry but if my anus is leaking that is very much an effect"

[forgetful]

Seems overly nitpicky but if they are experiencing lung damage they aren't asymptomatic right?

Reminds me of Robin William's stand up on the alestro additives to make non-fat chips "it said anal leakage my be a side effect, I'm sorry but if my anus is leaking that is very much an effect"

That is part of the point. Those that we are saying "have no symptoms" upon examination have significant lung damage that will impact their lives for a while.

I had walking pneumonia once, only realized something was wrong when I went for a hard/long run and struggled with it. Turned out I had "textbook pneumonia," I didn't even realize I was ill. That is what is happening in some of these "asymptomatic instances". They have significant effects, just don't realize it.

[GooooMarquette]

Seems overly nitpicky but if they are experiencing lung damage they aren't asymptomatic right?

Reminds me of Robin William's stand up on the alestro additives to make non-fat chips "it said anal leakage my be a side effect, I'm sorry but if my anus is leaking that is very much an effect"

Actually, they may be asymptomatic.

Technically, a "symptom" is a subjective experience or sensation that a patient can feel and tell you about. Examples are shortness of breath, pain and the like. On the other hand, a "sign" is an objective finding that can be detected in a test or seen in a scan, but may or may not cause any abnormal sensations in the patient. Examples might be high blood pressure or a an abnormality seen in an x-ray.

In this case, it appears that the individuals are showing the sign of lung damage, even though they may not be experiencing a symptom like shortness of breath. This is because most young people have significant excess lung capacity. If this is persistent, it could make the individual more susceptible to breathing issues later in life.

In other words, this finding might not be immediately relevant to (or perceived by) the patient today, but it could have significant long-term consequences.

[mu03eng]

Huh, ya learn something new every day. Thanks folks.

[Jockey]

Cases no longer trending upward - they are exploding upward.

New cases up over 80% from a couple weeks ago.

45 states are trending upward.

As I said (yesterday, I believe), the worst is yet to come.

[Hards Alumni]

That is part of the point. Those that we are saying "have no symptoms" upon examination have significant lung damage that will impact their lives for a while.

I had walking pneumonia once, only realized something was wrong when I went for a hard/long run and struggled with it. Turned out I had "textbook pneumonia," I didn't even realize I was ill. That is what is happening in some of these "asymptomatic instances". They have significant effects, just don't realize it.

That's awful.  At least two of my employees have gone through the same thing.  They just thought it was a normal cold... then it didn't go away for 2 months.  Eventually, they went to the doctor and found out the same thing.  Some antibiotics and a little time, and they got through it.

Our culture of working through illnesses should change.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yet another confirmation of the undercount

U.S. COVID-19 death toll may be 28 percent higher than officially thought
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/u-s-covid-19-death-toll-may-be-28-percent-higher-than-officially-thought/ar-BB16fwpk?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds

[tower912]

The crucial word there is 'may'.    Having read the article,  'X' more number of people died in 'X' time span compared to the year before.    100k of those are directly attributable to COVID.    The authors of the article are willing to make the leap that the other (X - 100k)  MAY be attributable to COVID, leading to a theoretical 28% undercount.     


While I admit the possibility, I am not willing to declare it a fact.   

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

If I recall correctly, In a stat news version of that article the researcher actually called out increases in cardiac arrest due deferred medical care as one causal in addition to Covid. 

My opinion counting is impossible/hard and we are certainly not overcounting. No one is. 

[forgetful]

Actually, they may be asymptomatic.

Technically, a "symptom" is a subjective experience or sensation that a patient can feel and tell you about. Examples are shortness of breath, pain and the like. On the other hand, a "sign" is an objective finding that can be detected in a test or seen in a scan, but may or may not cause any abnormal sensations in the patient. Examples might be high blood pressure or a an abnormality seen in an x-ray.

In this case, it appears that the individuals are showing the sign of lung damage, even though they may not be experiencing a symptom like shortness of breath. This is because most young people have significant excess lung capacity. If this is persistent, it could make the individual more susceptible to breathing issues later in life.

In other words, this finding might not be immediately relevant to (or perceived by) the patient today, but it could have significant long-term consequences.

Great summary/translation of the difference in terms.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

The crucial word there is 'may'.    Having read the article,  'X' more number of people died in 'X' time span compared to the year before.    100k of those are directly attributable to COVID.    The authors of the article are willing to make the leap that the other (X - 100k)  MAY be attributable to COVID, leading to a theoretical 28% undercount.     


While I admit the possibility, I am not willing to declare it a fact.

There have been at least a half a dozen studies finding essentially the same thing. They do all appear to use the same methodology, I'll admit, that being looking at excess death figures. But unless there is something *other* than COVID causing the deaths, which I don't think I've seen claimed anywhere, then it seems highly, highly likely that the excess deaths are COVID driven.

[rocky_warrior]

it seems highly, highly likely that the excess deaths are COVID driven.

Correct - the real formula is going to be (Covid Deaths + (Exces deaths +/- excess margin of error))

# of deaths per year isn't some static number.  We'll never know how many there would have been this year without Covid.  However (in the US anyway), there aren't usually giant differences in deaths per year.  However, the US death rate has been generally increasing about 1.1-1.2% each year (probably due to the age of boomers).

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

So the excess *could* be a negative number (thus increasing covid deaths more than excess), but more than likely, death rate this year would have been around 8.880/1000 so the increase form there is roughly covid related.

[SERocks]

Darwin at work.

https://nypost.com/2020/07/02/alabama-students-gamble-on-who-gets-sick-at-covid-19-parties/?utm_source=NYPTwitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=SocialFlow

[Hards Alumni]

Correct - the real formula is going to be (Covid Deaths + (Exces deaths +/- excess margin of error))

# of deaths per year isn't some static number.  We'll never know how many there would have been this year without Covid.  However (in the US anyway), there aren't usually giant differences in deaths per year.  However, the US death rate has been generally increasing about 1.1-1.2% each year (probably due to the age of boomers).

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

So the excess *could* be a negative number (thus increasing covid deaths more than excess), but more than likely, death rate this year would have been around 8.880/1000 so the increase form there is roughly covid related.

The trouble will be when we start counting cancer, heart disease, etc. deaths as covid deaths because people didn't go to the doctor to treat those problems.  They're obviously covid RELATED deaths, but how they are counted will be a hot button issue in the months and years ahead.

And it will be politicized.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I had an interesting talk today with the CEO of a health care company that I work with who happens to also be an epidemiologist with expertise in public health. He was ringing the alarm bells early and loudly on this in January.  Interestingly, he is pretty sanguine about a potential 2nd wave.

His reasoning is that after this initial wave, people are going to be more diligent and "do the right" around social distancing, hygiene, etc. He comes at this view from a math, science, and reasoning perspective. I wish I could say I agree with him, but I think he is overlooking human behavior. You have people that are suffering economic hardship who are going to say "F it" and take their chances, and then you have a whole swath of people of the Freedumb movement who have been egged on not to take precautions. I'm afraid that even if the latter are a minority, it is more than enough to spread a 2nd wave.

I hope the Dr. is right and I am wrong.

It would probably be impolite to say, "I told you so."

[JWags85]

It would probably be impolite to say, "I told you so."

Are we counting places like Texas or Florida or Arizona as a second wave? I would argue the vast majority of spikes and increased cases are in places that never got out of the first wave.  And places that have some increases whether it be Colorado or Wisconsin or Ohio or India, etc...while not great, aren't in full on second wave yet, given other metrics there.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Are we counting places like Texas or Florida or Arizona as a second wave? I would argue the vast majority of spikes and increased cases are in places that never got out of the first wave.  And places that have some increases whether it be Colorado or Wisconsin or Ohio or India, etc...while not great, aren't in full on second wave yet, given other metrics there.

I won't disagree that we never really got out of the first wave

[shoothoops]

Herman Cain attended Trump's recent Tulsa rally. Herman Cain is now in an Atlanta hospital receiving treatment for COVID-19.


https://twitter.com/wsteaks/status/1278740414535737344?s=19

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Herman Cain (the real one) hospitalized with COVID-19.

Guess where he was a couple of weeks ago, without a mask? The "rally" in Tulsa.
https://www.westernjournal.com/herman-cain-tulsa-trump-rally-crowd-huge-enthusiastic/

EDIT: Sorry, dupe

[Jockey]

He said it in March, April, May, June, and July.

Maybe he lives by the "even a blind squirrel is right twice a day" axiom.

I almost forgot - he said it in February as well. On the same exact day that he ignored the daily briefing about Russia paying bounties on US soldiers.

[Jockey]

Herman Cain (the real one) hospitalized with COVID-19.

Guess where he was a couple of weeks ago, without a mask? The "rally" in Tulsa.
https://www.westernjournal.com/herman-cain-tulsa-trump-rally-crowd-huge-enthusiastic/

EDIT: Sorry, dupe

So, if he dies, do we count it as Covid or suicide?

[GooooMarquette]

Are we counting places like Texas or Florida or Arizona as a second wave? I would argue the vast majority of spikes and increased cases are in places that never got out of the first wave.  And places that have some increases whether it be Colorado or Wisconsin or Ohio or India, etc...while not great, aren't in full on second wave yet, given other metrics there.

Agreed - we are still experiencing a slow-motion first wave. The consensus among the epidemiologists and public health officials I've heard is that we slowed the first wave down a bit with the closures, but we didn't maintain them long enough to get past it.

If I had to guess, the only places that might officially be able to say they got through the first wave might be the NYC/NJ/CT area, and possibly the Seattle area.

[Pakuni]

Texas just issued a mask order.
Wonder how effective it will be when you have a lieutenant governor who refuses.

[GooooMarquette]

Texas just issued a mask order.
Wonder how effective it will be when you have a lieutenant governor who refuses.

Certainly better than no order, but I won't be surprised if compliance is less than enthusiastic. Texans are 'independent-minded' enough, but the openly defiant comments of the LG will likely embolden them to push the envelope even more...