COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[4everwarriors]

Could be da best thin' for MU if da BET is canceled, hey?

[forgetful]

Want a tremendous thread of doom?  Read this thread:

https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

That is why countries have been responding so aggressively, and why there is a lot of media coverage. The good news, I think it is working.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Want a tremendous thread of doom?  Read this thread:

https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

That was interesting.  Guess there is math to support my paranoia. 

[mu_hilltopper]

Honestly, after reading that thread .. and once you take the leap that C19 is not going to be controlled .. it's just a matter of time.   The author presupposes a doubling-rate of 6 days .. fine, maybe we can make that 12 days, so instead of billions infected by July, it's ~October.     Yay?

Seems like only a matter of time, like 4-6 weeks where all schooling is closed.  All cruise ships, closed.  Air travel will be 75% closed.   Hotels, closed.  Restaurants, closed.  Churches, closed.  On and on.

That seems like .. the beginning of a global great depression?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Honestly, after reading that thread .. and once you take the leap that C19 is not going to be controlled .. it's just a matter of time.   The author presupposes a doubling-rate of 6 days .. fine, maybe we can make that 12 days, so instead of billions infected by July, it's ~October.     Yay?

Seems like only a matter of time, like 4-6 weeks where all schooling is closed.  All cruise ships, closed.  Air travel will be 75% closed.   Hotels, closed.  Restaurants, closed.  Churches, closed.  On and on.

That seems like .. the beginning of a global great depression?

China checked it and it will be a 1-2 quarter recession for them.  So I guess it depends on when the rest of the world can get to peak infection.  My guess is it will take ROW longer due to either worse health systems (emerging markets) or freedom (developed). 

Edit: obviously if this is slowed down by weather, people decide to accept risk or vaccine can completely change it to the positive. 

[GB Warrior]

Honestly, after reading that thread .. and once you take the leap that C19 is not going to be controlled .. it's just a matter of time.   The author presupposes a doubling-rate of 6 days .. fine, maybe we can make that 12 days, so instead of billions infected by July, it's ~October.     Yay?

Seems like only a matter of time, like 4-6 weeks where all schooling is closed.  All cruise ships, closed.  Air travel will be 75% closed.   Hotels, closed.  Restaurants, closed.  Churches, closed.  On and on.

That seems like .. the beginning of a global great depression?

And then there's this https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3

[JWags85]

Flu truther?

Go to the top of this page and you will see

Total recovered = 58,359
Total Death = 3,558

No divide them to get the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR)
3,558 / 58,359 = 6.1%
Of all the resolved cases, 6.1% die

2018/2019 flu season
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Total = 35,520,883
Recovered = 35,486,726
Dead = 34,157

34,157 / 35,486,786 = .096% (2018/2018 CFR)

Coronavirus is 63.5x (6.1%/0.096%) deadlier than the seasonal flu.

Classic Heisey misdirection addressing 0.0% of what I was talking to.

If a disease normally kills .5% of red haired green eyed people, and a new strain now kills 3% of red haired green eyed people, but still .01% of non-red haired green eye people, creating panic and paranoia about that disease to everyone that is not red haired and green eyed is excessive and irresponsible.

That 58,000 does not account for all Covid cases which required no hospitalization or care, which likely number in the hundreds of thousands.

But keep banging your drum to help your AAPL short

[The Sultan]

Please read the first sentence of the story

The University of Washington said on Friday that it would cancel in-person classes and have students take courses and finals remotely while the Seattle area grapples with a growing coronavirus outbreak, in a move that other colleges around the country are preparing to follow if the virus becomes more widespread.

and since you missed that, you probably also missed this in the middle

The University of Washington, with 50,000 students on three campuses across the Seattle region, was apparently the first large college in the United States to make the shift entirely to online classes amid virus concerns. It said the change would begin Monday and continue through the remainder of the winter quarter, which ends March 20. The university's president, Ana Mari Cauce, said she was hopeful that normal classes would resume during the spring quarter.

Oh wait, I said semester and it says quarter.  Stand corrected on that minor point.  But ... they are not going back in late March.  This is not ending in two weeks.

It's not a minor point. The quarter is just a couple of weeks. A semester would imply May.

[rocky_warrior]

The media has made this out to be a frightening ordeal for everyone, the ABC news special report on Friday night was reminiscent of the somber reports of terror attacks.  If you're in one of the demographic groups that are susceptible to pneumonia or garden variety influenza complications, then by all means make preparations and precautions.  But cancelling months of classes, bringing businesses fully to a halt, encouraging people to postpone or cancel vacation/travel plans 1/2/3 months in the future?  Thats where I'm getting a bit sick of the media bias and narrative.

Think of cancelling classes, businesses, etc as a flu shot*.  If you're healthy, you don't really need a flu shot - you'll survive the flu.  But healthy people get flu shots to avoid getting sick and spreading it to a vulnerable population.  THAT is why it's important to cancel things and slow the spread.  Most people have someone, or lots of someones of age 70+ in their life that they care about.  Those people can take precautions, but if you're not, or businesses or classes don't care, a lot more of those people will die.

* - I'm certainly not comparing COVID-19 to the flu.

I am not personally scared of having the virus.  I bet I will persevere.  More so I am cautious about contracting and infecting others.  If there's anything I can do to stop that while not going full China lockdown it's a win. 

And that's essentially the correct perspective.

[Dish]

Want a tremendous thread of doom?  Read this thread:

https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?

[Jockey]

China checked it and it will be a 1-2 quarter recession for them.  So I guess it depends on when the rest of the world can get to peak infection.  My guess is it will take ROW longer due to either worse health systems (emerging markets) or freedom (developed). 

You're buying what China is saying?

[JWags85]

You're buying what China is saying?

Are you saying it's way worse from them (meaning more than 1-2 quarters) or they are sandbagging cause they were in economic turmoil before this?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

You're buying what China is saying?

Based on The NY Times article I posted above and recent factory utilization rates reported by companies, I think it is generally true. 

[mu_hilltopper]

I liked this document ..

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cI_D3ULz6-qoBRMND8dIVz-naW92MqATphBg5bQEIjg/preview?fbclid=IwAR3dK2AUxsebUvy-VFkTqRKrbADDFmv7fcYX4U9wpkr_Vt0XHTjNq8y8VeQ&pru=AAABcN5-6sQ*1EWxzP8ANMZuVQ_HmmvMEw#

This was a good point:

8. I do want to remind everyone that when public health works, the result is the least newsworthy thing ever: nothing happens.

If this all fizzles out and you start feeling like 'Wah, all that fuss for nothing??' Then send a thank-you note to your local department of public health for a job well done. Fingers crossed for that outcome.

[rocky_warrior]

I liked this document ..

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cI_D3ULz6-qoBRMND8dIVz-naW92MqATphBg5bQEIjg/preview?fbclid=IwAR3dK2AUxsebUvy-VFkTqRKrbADDFmv7fcYX4U9wpkr_Vt0XHTjNq8y8VeQ&pru=AAABcN5-6sQ*1EWxzP8ANMZuVQ_HmmvMEw#

Yup, I generally concur with all of that.

[mu_hilltopper]

Ah, humans.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Moronavirus/

Bo and Luke Duke School of Medicine :   https://en.radiofarda.com/a/people-who-drink-moonshine-in-iran-to-prevent-coronavirus-die-of-poisoning/30474864.html

[Jockey]

Are you saying it's way worse from them (meaning more than 1-2 quarters) or they are sandbagging cause they were in economic turmoil before this?

Actually, Wags, I was referring to statements that things are getting better in Chine (re:coronavirus). When did we suddenly get to the point that their gov't - which has lied from the beginning and covered up the extent of the virus - has suddenly become a source of facts.

According to The Week - a centrist news site - they are still simply lying and covering up. In other words, SOP.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/900488/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-all-fake-whistleblowers-residents-claim

I think we all agree that we don't know what is going on in China. I think we can also agree we will not get transparency from the Chinese Gov't.

[JWags85]

Actually, Wags, I was referring to statements that things are getting better in Chine (re:coronavirus). When did we suddenly get to the point that their gov't - which has lied from the beginning and covered up the extent of the virus - has suddenly become a source of facts.

According to The Week - a centrist news site - they are still simply lying and covering up. In other words, SOP.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/900488/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-all-fake-whistleblowers-residents-claim

I think we all agree that we don't know what is going on in China. I think we can also agree we will not get transparency from the Chinese Gov't.

Ok, multiple sources have them closing the Coronavirus hospitals and quarantine centers.  And I can tell you, as well as many others, first hand from clients and customers that many factories are back open and back to work.  Not speaking to long term business outlooks, but claiming its a massive coverup and the virus is still rampaging unchecked is some alarmist nonsense IMO.

Maybe they are window dressing Wuhan a bit, but the country is not longer at a standstill and case numbers continue to drop.  Thats meaningful.

[rocket surgeon]

as more "first hand" news and reports from guys like wags, goose and a few others here who do direct business with the asian areas, will we start seeing our most accurate reports.  watch the stock market tomorrow-that could also tell us a little more. 

as more accurate numbers of the cases come out and the #'s being verified via testing, the mortality rate will drop.  i am not by any means trying to minimize any death from this virus.  it seems as though it's following the usual story; the very young, very old and the immunocompromised who are most susceptible 

[Jockey]

Ok, multiple sources have them closing the Coronavirus hospitals and quarantine centers.  And I can tell you, as well as many others, first hand from clients and customers that many factories are back open and back to work.  Not speaking to long term business outlooks, but claiming its a massive coverup and the virus is still rampaging unchecked is some alarmist nonsense IMO.

Maybe they are window dressing Wuhan a bit, but the country is not longer at a standstill and case numbers continue to drop.  Thats meaningful.

I'll take your word on this Wags - as I have been out of the business loop for a few years now.

The company where I worked made a conscious decision about 10 years ago to not depend entirely on China as they closed plants in Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, etc. Instead, they went to a presence in India, Vietnam, and Indonesia to supplement the factories in China.

[Goose]

Wags
Our team is back to work and have full access to 90% of the factories we work with, which is over 50 and all over China. Many of the factories not up and running are factories with money issues. There has been a glut of overcapacity for a long time and the weak factories are suffering.
I cannot comment on China reporting new cases or deaths accurately, but confirm much of China is open for business.
I have two grandkids arriving in early April otherwise I would be finding a way to get back to China and Vietnam.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Wags
Our team is back to work and have full access to 90% of the factories we work with, which is over 50 and all over China. Many of the factories not up and running are factories with money issues. There has been a glut of overcapacity for a long time and the weak factories are suffering.
I cannot comment on China reporting new cases or deaths accurately, but confirm much of China is open for business.
I have two grandkids arriving in early April otherwise I would be finding a way to get back to China and Vietnam.

Goose, good to hear your operation is mostly back to full speed.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Wags
Our team is back to work and have full access to 90% of the factories we work with, which is over 50 and all over China. Many of the factories not up and running are factories with money issues. There has been a glut of overcapacity for a long time and the weak factories are suffering.
I cannot comment on China reporting new cases or deaths accurately, but confirm much of China is open for business.
I have two grandkids arriving in early April otherwise I would be finding a way to get back to China and Vietnam.

I have my weekly teleconference Monday morning.  I'll have a China update from my China b pant manager.

[Goose]

MU Fan
Keep me posted.

[rocket surgeon]

MU Fan
Keep me posted.

i knew we had at least another great scoop'er here with business ties to the southeast.  Godspeed to all of you guys, especially if you have to travel and your businesses.  the same goes for anyone else more directly involved with this mess.