COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[WarriorDad]

I'm not sure where you see that.

From my perspective, state and local leaders have (for the most part) done a better job of handling this crisis than federal leaders. But even with that general observation, I have seen some bad decisions by state leaders, and some good decisions by the feds. So a mixed bag, with varying degrees of good and bad responses. And with all of them, it was never a death/no death scenario - it was simply a matter of good or bad responses to an inherently bad situation.

DeSantis not closing beaches
New Yorkers still on subways.  New Yorkers encouraged to go to restaurants, parades and Broadway by New York mayor and health officials.
California letting 20 million masks expire and dismantling their pandemic program due to budget cuts
New Orleans / Louisiana allowing Marie Gras to continue
Feds ignoring pandemic warnings in 2018, 2015, 2011, 2006, 2001, 1998.
Feds acting too slowly to stop travel from China while the media tearing into decision that it was xenophobic.
Feds ignoring threat at first, issuing different threat levels that change al last daily.

Add in Federalism and States rights.  Urban vs rural.   Economic vs healthcare.

Anecdote:  Some of my relatives living in the middle of the country are furious at the shutdown economically.  They are sympathetic that some are dying, but they point out Fauci believes this will ultimately be a death rate of a severe flu season.  Other relatives think we should be held at gunpoint and shot if we leave our homes.  They want total isolation (they tend to be in urban hubs). 

You get the idea.  There is a faction that is demanding everything shut down, which legally the federal govt cannot do.  When Iowa waits, or the Dakotas that opens a risk that their leaders have said is ok.  Neighboring Minnesota may not agree, but they pay the price potentially.  When Trump proposed locking down New York, Cuomo threatened an immediate civil rights lawsuit.

Now weigh those decisions of shutting it all down or else blood is on your hands with the complete wreck of an economy?  No matter what decision is made, leaders are in a now in situation.

There is no answer to fit a country this size with our freedoms and population density variances.  We are not alone as other countries have been wrecked as well.  Some with universal healthcare, some without. 

[GooooMarquette]

DeSantis not closing beaches
New Yorkers still on subways.  New Yorkers encouraged to go to restaurants, parades and Broadway by New York mayor and health officials.
California letting 20 million masks expire and dismantling their pandemic program due to budget cuts
New Orleans / Louisiana allowing Marie Gras to continue
Feds ignoring pandemic warnings in 2018, 2015, 2011, 2006, 2001, 1998.
Feds acting too slowly to stop travel from China while the media tearing into decision that it was xenophobic.
Feds ignoring threat at first, issuing different threat levels that change al last daily.

Add in Federalism and States rights.  Urban vs rural.   Economic vs healthcare.

Anecdote:  Some of my relatives living in the middle of the country are furious at the shutdown economically.  They are sympathetic that some are dying, but they point out Fauci believes this will ultimately be a death rate of a severe flu season.  Other relatives think we should be held at gunpoint and shot if we leave our homes.  They want total isolation (they tend to be in urban hubs). 

You get the idea.  There is a faction that is demanding everything shut down, which legally the federal govt cannot do.  When Iowa waits, or the Dakotas that opens a risk that their leaders have said is ok.  Neighboring Minnesota may not agree, but they pay the price potentially.  When Trump proposed locking down New York, Cuomo threatened an immediate civil rights lawsuit.

Now weigh those decisions of shutting it all down or else blood is on your hands with the complete wreck of an economy?  No matter what decision is made, leaders are in a now in situation.

There is no answer to fit a country this size with our freedoms and population density variances.  We are not alone as other countries have been wrecked as well.  Some with universal healthcare, some without.

You still didn't show me anything to support your comment that "As seen on this message forum, balance is not allowed. Our leaders will be held to an impossible standard with "blood on their hands" no matter the decision any of them make at the federal, state and local level."

IMHO, while peoples' political biases naturally come through on this board, most people see good and bad decisions being made, and most people who are paying attention realize that there was never a "good" outcome to this situation.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

A few weeks back, folks were hopeful for a V shaped recession/bounce back, probably now closer to U, just depends on how long the bottom part is.

Just got off the phone with my Financial Adviser.
They said 3 scenarios: Great Depression 2, v-recovery or u-recovery.  Consensus in the financial world leaning towards U-shape.  Negative for 3-5 months and not every job will come back.  Should be a strong 4th Quarter.

[Hards Alumni]

You still didn't show me anything to support your comment that "As seen on this message forum, balance is not allowed. Our leaders will be held to an impossible standard with "blood on their hands" no matter the decision any of them make at the federal, state and local level."

IMHO, while peoples' political biases naturally come through on this board, most people see good and bad decisions being made, and most people who are paying attention realize that there was never a "good" outcome to this situation.

Ah, your mistake was assuming that his arguments ever do anything besides push the narrative he wants.  That's the problem with the guy, he is bonkers, and thinks he is smart enough to convince others of his "points".  Better to just ignore the Cheeks and move on.

[Lennys Tap]

Just got off the phone with my Financial Adviser.
They said 3 scenarios: Great Depression 2, v-recovery or u-recovery.  Consensus in the financial world leaning towards U-shape.  Negative for 3-5 months and not every job will come back.  Should be a strong 4th Quarter.

I hope your financial advisor is right. But as we all know, "consensus" is at best an educated guess. And are they basing their projections on the US going back to work in May, June, July or at some later date. Any projection/consensus is worthless unless you know the back to work date.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I hope your financial advisor is right. But as we all know, "consensus" is at best an educated guess. And are they basing their projections on the US going back to work in May, June, July or at some later date. Any projection/consensus is worthless unless you know the back to work date.

Lenny for what it's worth I'm hearing most in the market prepared for an extreme 2q decline.  Like autos down 50%.  It's now a question of how much better (or less worse) is 3q and can 4q be the snap back (or does it persist into 21).

Most are contemplating an L but not planning for it yet. 

[rocket surgeon]

DeSantis not closing beaches
New Yorkers still on subways.  New Yorkers encouraged to go to restaurants, parades and Broadway by New York mayor and health officials.
California letting 20 million masks expire and dismantling their pandemic program due to budget cuts
New Orleans / Louisiana allowing Marie Gras to continue
Feds ignoring pandemic warnings in 2018, 2015, 2011, 2006, 2001, 1998.
Feds acting too slowly to stop travel from China while the media tearing into decision that it was xenophobic.
Feds ignoring threat at first, issuing different threat levels that change al last daily.

Add in Federalism and States rights.  Urban vs rural.   Economic vs healthcare.

Anecdote:  Some of my relatives living in the middle of the country are furious at the shutdown economically.  They are sympathetic that some are dying, but they point out Fauci believes this will ultimately be a death rate of a severe flu season.  Other relatives think we should be held at gunpoint and shot if we leave our homes.  They want total isolation (they tend to be in urban hubs). 

You get the idea.  There is a faction that is demanding everything shut down, which legally the federal govt cannot do.  When Iowa waits, or the Dakotas that opens a risk that their leaders have said is ok.  Neighboring Minnesota may not agree, but they pay the price potentially.  When Trump proposed locking down New York, Cuomo threatened an immediate civil rights lawsuit.

Now weigh those decisions of shutting it all down or else blood is on your hands with the complete wreck of an economy?  No matter what decision is made, leaders are in a now in situation.

There is no answer to fit a country this size with our freedoms and population density variances.  We are not alone as other countries have been wrecked as well.  Some with universal healthcare, some without.

excellent summation daddy!

  leaves one with a funny(sad) feeling that some are just fine with bad news

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Lenny for what it's worth I'm hearing most in the market prepared for an extreme 2q decline.  Like autos down 50%.  It's now a question of how much better (or less worse) is 3q and can 4q be the snap back (or does it persist into 21).

Most are contemplating an L but not planning for it yet.

One other thing he said was the consensus included that "at some point we need to learn to live with COVID-19.  It's not going away."

[Elonsmusk]

Sweden stoped using hydroxychloroquine due to patients having seizures and vision problems. Both well known side effects.

Remdesivir is in trials for COVID-19, and can (and is) be used on the same compassionate use doctrines as hydroxychloroquine.

Like I said, I'd take the advice of my doctors on what gives me the best chance to survive.

So you would rather take a drug in trials that has ZERO long term data as far as efficacy or side effects, than a drug like Hydroxy that has been around for decades?

Seems to be a much riskier proposition, but to each their own.

[GooooMarquette]

excellent summation daddy!

  leaves one with a funny(sad) feeling that some are just fine with bad news

It leaves me with the feeling that different people have different opinions about the best way to deal with a bad situation.

My opinion is that we need to defer to the public health experts, researchers and doctors at this time of a public health crisis, crazy as that may sound to you....

[Lennys Tap]

Lenny for what it's worth I'm hearing most in the market prepared for an extreme 2q decline.  Like autos down 50%.  It's now a question of how much better (or less worse) is 3q and can 4q be the snap back (or does it persist into 21).

Most are contemplating an L but not planning for it yet.

Frenns

Assuming that auto sales will be virtually non existent in April and early May, I'd be delighted with down 50% for the quarter. Even after we reopen people will be short cash, tons will still be out of work and credit may be difficult to come by.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Frenns

Assuming that auto sales will be virtually non existent in April and early May, I'd be delighted with down 50% for the quarter. Even after we reopen people will be short cash, tons will still be out of work and credit may be difficult to come by.

I should add globally.  So assumes Asia has some life on the auto side. 

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Zimbrick dealerships are opening back up this week.  Got an email from Tom Zimbrick himself today telling me this.

[Lennys Tap]

I should add globally.  So assumes Asia has some life on the auto side.

Fair,

[rocket surgeon]

It leaves me with the feeling that different people have different opinions about the best way to deal with a bad situation.

My opinion is that we need to defer to the public health experts, researchers and doctors at this time of a public health crisis, crazy as that may sound to you....

  nope, not crazy to me, but who are your "experts"? 

some "experts" were predicting as of last week to expect 100,000-200,000 or MORE deaths.  that projection has come down by quite a bit already

dr zeke emanuel an "expert"?

[Elonsmusk]

Lenny for what it's worth I'm hearing most in the market prepared for an extreme 2q decline.  Like autos down 50%.  It's now a question of how much better (or less worse) is 3q and can 4q be the snap back (or does it persist into 21).

Most are contemplating an L but not planning for it yet.

Spot on. Q2 is going to be brutal. 50% may be optimistic as far as all industries are concerned as it relates to missed earnings.

[GooooMarquette]

  nope, not crazy to me, but who are your "experts"?

I'm gonna feel better when folks at places like CDC, Johns Hopkins, Harvard and Mayo say it's safe. And the folks at UDub seem to know a fair bit about this since it hit Seattle first. I haven't seen any recommendations from them about heading out yet. In fact, most still seem troubled about the states that still haven't implemented stay at home orders.

If you have any credible sources saying we ought to start heading out, I'd love to see them.

[GooooMarquette]

  nope, not crazy to me, but who are your "experts"? 

some "experts" were predicting as of last week to expect 100,000-200,000 or MORE deaths.  that projection has come down by quite a bit already

Yeah, that was UDub. Their projection has come down, but it was because they got new data (you know, after the whole delay in testing fiasco). Being a healthcare professional, I'm sure you understand that projections get more accurate as you get more data.

Anyhow, their numbers assume existing social distancing requirements stay in place through the end of May. I don't recall seeing anything about whether they'd recommend ending the restrictions at that point or not. Again, if you see any credible medical recommendations that it's safe to lift the restrictions, I'd love to see them.

[Jay Bee]

What is the pathway out of this?

[jesmu84]

What is the pathway out of this?

Haven't people told you multiple times?

[MU82]

Just got off the phone with my Financial Adviser.
They said 3 scenarios: Great Depression 2, v-recovery or u-recovery.  Consensus in the financial world leaning towards U-shape.  Negative for 3-5 months and not every job will come back.  Should be a strong 4th Quarter.

What will be interesting is to see how much of this the market has "priced in." Normally, during earnings season, a bad report makes a stock's price crater. But everybody knows that there will be bad reports for many -- if not most -- companies. And everybody knows that guidance for Q2 and probably Q3, as well as the full year, will be brutal. So how do investors, especially the big institutional ones, react to all that?

BTW, there is an Investing Thread, but I'm always happy to talk about investing in any thread.

[injuryBug]

Jay Bee listen to this from dr fauci



https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal/dr-anthony-fauci-on-how-life-returns-to-normal/D5754969-7027-431E-89FA-E12788ED9879

[Jay Bee]

Haven't people told you multiple times?

Ever-changing and difficult. #LastDays

[Chili]

Just got off the phone with my Financial Adviser.
They said 3 scenarios: Great Depression 2, v-recovery or u-recovery.  Consensus in the financial world leaning towards U-shape.  Negative for 3-5 months and not every job will come back.  Should be a strong 4th Quarter.

I would say it's going to be a combo depending on the type of business and sector.

If you're a large leveraged industry who is not getting much backing from the fed - L shape
Small biz - U
Industries with well capitalized companies with good ratings and backing of the fed - V

Also don't expect a ton of growth in the next 6 mo or so with no buy backs propping up prices.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Ever-changing and difficult. #LastDays

If you start giving away all your stuff, can i have your condo?