COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[mu_hilltopper]

This is such a cool chart:

https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility

Search for your city .. you can see, over time, walking/driving/transit trends.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

That is really cool.  Also supports my anecdotal observation about more people venturing out in my area (including me).

[Jockey]

The Capitol's attending physician said Thursday that coronavirus tests will be available for staffers and senators who are ill, but not enough to proactively test all 100 senators as the chamber comes back in session.


"Anyone who wants a test can get one".   

[forgetful]

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

Really great article highlighting why this is not just a bad flu.

Goes through the fact that flu-deaths are grossly over-reported, due to outdated alogrithms/testing with the goal of encouraging vaccination. Part of it dating back to days we did not have good ways to rapidly test for flu, we do now.

Shows that if you compare the flu and COVID using the same methods of testing, than COVID is between 7.5-44x more deadly than the worst of the flus.

I've talked with a lot of ER docs, who find this disease to be the most frightening thing they have experienced.

[JWags85]

Study from Japan surrounding infection rate and anitbody rate.  Preseented without commentary.  Just found it interesting

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079822v1.full.pdf

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Study from Japan surrounding infection rate and anitbody rate.  Preseented without commentary.  Just found it interesting

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079822v1.full.pdf

I think 3% infection rate is pretty good broadly. 

The interesting thing is if you take deaths and assume that represents 1% of the total cases....or assume that the testing has only captured 1/10th of actual cases...those both have been good indicators of overall infection when serology tests have gone in after the fact.  Worked in some europe studies, NY, and some others I have seen.

The only one I have seen that was much higher was Santa Clara, which, if I remember right, was 50-80X confirmed cases.  However the percent of population was still only 7% (again off recollection -- this could be wrong).

[MU82]

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

Really great article highlighting why this is not just a bad flu.

Goes through the fact that flu-deaths are grossly over-reported, due to outdated alogrithms/testing with the goal of encouraging vaccination. Part of it dating back to days we did not have good ways to rapidly test for flu, we do now.

Shows that if you compare the flu and COVID using the same methods of testing, than COVID is between 7.5-44x more deadly than the worst of the flus.

I've talked with a lot of ER docs, who find this disease to be the most frightening thing they have experienced.

Very interesting. Thanks for posting.

By now, everybody with at least half a brain realizes this is significantly worse than "a bad flu."

Unfortunately, a lot of Americans, including many of our leaders, apparently have 49% of a brain or less.

More Americans died in April alone than in most entire years of seasonal flus. And yes, as you pointed out, flu deaths are largely overcounted while most infectious disease experts believe this pandemic has been considerably undercounted.

[warriorchick]

This is such a cool chart:

https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility

Search for your city .. you can see, over time, walking/driving/transit trends.

I am not sure the folks who use Apple Maps necessarily represent society as a whole.

[GooooMarquette]

I am not sure the folks who use Apple Maps necessarily represent society as a whole.

Yep - they don't even represent iPhone users as a whole. I have always used iPhones, but the first thing I install is the Google Maps app because Apple Maps are really bad. Same with nearly every iPhone user I know.

Maybe it's a representative sample of: (1) Apple employees; and (2) iPhone users who don't realize they can use Google Maps on their iPhones.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Yep - they don't even represent iPhone users as a whole. I have always used iPhones, but the first thing I install is the Google Maps app because Apple Maps are really bad. Same with nearly every iPhone user I know.

Maybe it's a representative sample of: (1) Apple employees; and (2) iPhone users who don't realize they can use Google Maps on their iPhones.

And 3 - iphone users who don't specifically adjust their location data on apple maps

[wadesworld]

Yep - they don't even represent iPhone users as a whole. I have always used iPhones, but the first thing I install is the Google Maps app because Apple Maps are really bad. Same with nearly every iPhone user I know.

Maybe it's a representative sample of: (1) Apple employees; and (2) iPhone users who don't realize they can use Google Maps on their iPhones.

The Maps app on the iPhone was bad like 8 years ago.  Now the only navigation app for driving worth adding if you aren't using Maps is Waze.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The Maps app on the iPhone was bad like 8 years ago.  Now the only navigation app for driving worth adding if you aren't using Maps is Waze.

Waze and google maps use the same database/program/software.

[GooooMarquette]

Waze and google maps use the same database/program/software.

Yeah, they share the same basic program, with tweaks specific to each app. I have read that the Waze app can reroute faster, but that it has more bugs and isn't as efficient in locating GPS locations. Probably YMMV, so I stuck with Google Maps out of familiarity.

But either way, both >> Apple Maps

[mu_hilltopper]

I am not sure the folks who use Apple Maps necessarily represent society as a whole.

Possible math:

When Gallup does a national poll, they get 1,000 responses for a MOE of 4 points.

Apple Maps has 23m monthly users, so 766k data points (per day) for each of their graphing chart points .. with a sample size of that magnitude, the MOE is pretty tiny, regardless of the self-selected "Apple Maps" category of human.

[Jockey]

Possible math:

When Gallup does a national poll, they get 1,000 responses for a MOE of 4 points.

Apple Maps has 23m monthly users, so 766k data points (per day) for each of their graphing chart points .. with a sample size of that magnitude, the MOE is pretty tiny, regardless of the self-selected "Apple Maps" category of human.

MOE is very tiny, but the "polling group" is limited in scope.

[Jockey]

Dr. Fauci will not be allowed to testify before a House Coronavirus Task Force panel next week. White House is blocking it.

Sound familiar?

[MU82]

Dr. Fauci will not be allowed to testify before a House Coronavirus Task Force panel next week. White House is blocking it.

Sound familiar?

That is seriously weird. Others who have not been allowed to testify over these past few years haven't been trotted out in front of the public several times a week. Fauci has been allowed to "testify" to tens of millions of people repeatedly. I wonder what President Pandemic is afraid of here.

[Hards Alumni]

That is seriously weird. Others who have not been allowed to testify over these past few years haven't been trotted out in front of the public several times a week. Fauci has been allowed to "testify" to tens of millions of people repeatedly. I wonder what President Pandemic is afraid of here.

Obviously he doesn't want to look like an idiot.  What is the point of Fauci's testimony?  It's political theater and it would probably lead to Fauci getting axed.

So what is there to gain?   Make Trump seem stupid?  I think he can handle that just fine on his own.

[GooooMarquette]

U of Minnesota report projects that the virus could be with us for another 18 months to 2 years.

https://twin-cities.umn.edu/news-events/new-report-cidrap-university-minnesota-outlines-covid-19-realities-advises-next-steps

Their Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy is very well respected. I hope they are wrong, but....

[Pakuni]

That is seriously weird. Others who have not been allowed to testify over these past few years haven't been trotted out in front of the public several times a week. Fauci has been allowed to "testify" to tens of millions of people repeatedly. I wonder what President Pandemic is afraid of here.

Honestly, it's probably for the better. If people Ike Fauci are going to be believed and have their recommendations followed by a large portion of the populace, they need to be kept entirely separate from the political fray.

[WarriorDad]

U of Minnesota report projects that the virus could be with us for another 18 months to 2 years.

https://twin-cities.umn.edu/news-events/new-report-cidrap-university-minnesota-outlines-covid-19-realities-advises-next-steps

Their Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy is very well respected. I hope they are wrong, but....

CNN had a similar story weeks ago and some members here jumped on me for sharing it.

[wadesworld]

CNN had a similar story weeks ago and some members here jumped on me for sharing it.

Weird, Cheeks loved to let everyone know he was a victim all the time too.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Weird, Cheeks loved to let everyone know he was a victim all the time too.

Rent free.

[Lennys Tap]

Obviously he doesn't want to look like an idiot.  What is the point of Fauci's testimony?  It's political theater and it would probably lead to Fauci getting axed.

So what is there to gain?   Make Trump seem stupid?  I think he can handle that just fine on his own.

Dr Fauci will testify before the Senate Committee on Health on May 12th.

[wadesworld]

Rent free.

Aww sorry, did I force you to post against your will again?