COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[rocky_warrior]

These experts sure hand-wave a lot of their numbers. I find that concerning.

I agree.  Though it's no much different than the hand waving of "Only 1600 confirmed cases (but only 10k tested)" - both are based on an incomplete data set.  Based on how easily this *appears* to be transmitted, I'm inclined to believe it's a much higher number than we think.  How much higher?  I let the experts guess at that.

[StillAWarrior]

Well then...

"Don't believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus," he said. "No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed."

He added: "I think we have between 50,000 and half a million cases right now walking around in the United States."

To me, while high, those seem believable numbers -- possibly 50,000 to 500,000 in the entire country. As opposed to a definitive statement of at least 100,000 in Ohio.

[Galway Eagle]

$hits getting real, 30 day lock down starting as soon as Monday....Pentagon has been briefed(multiple folks there say so that I know)

Source on the lockdown? What does that entail

[🏀]

National emergency - Trump

[skianth16]

I agree.  Though it's no much different than the hand waving of "Only 1600 confirmed cases (but only 10k tested)" - both are based on an incomplete data set.  Based on how easily this *appears* to be transmitted, I'm inclined to believe it's a much higher number than we think.  How much higher?  I let the experts guess at that.

Here's my hot take that I've more or less been alluding to with all my comments/questions - the math from the experts is awful.

I agree that the number of confirmed cases is not really a very good proxy for actual cases. So when we talk total cases as opposed to confirmed cases, I don't mind when they use big multipliers since we're more or less accepting that a huge percentage of those infected will have such mild symptoms that they'll barely notice. So being wrong on the number infected really doesn't matter too much.

My big rub comes from the experts then using only confirmed cases as a the denominator to calculate mortality rates and hospitalization rates. And then applying those admittedly massively overstated rates to predict millions of deaths and the potential collapse of the healthcare system by applying the high rates to extremely high rates of infection.

These are the numbers that are affecting policy decisions and causing massive financial pain. They need to be more trustworthy, and frankly, the people repeating them need to put more effort into clarifying them or making them more accurate.

[vogue65]

I live in Italy part time, my claim to authority.
In fact, I have an apartment in Bergamo, belong to the Bergamo golf course (closed).
My wife has been on the phone with her friends in Bergamo today, like every day since she got home last week.  Her self imposed quarantine ends tomorrow, I hope I don't have IT.


So what's up in Bergamo?
An old friend in a nursing home was diagnosed with the virus.
He went to the ICU at the hospital.
They sent him back to the nursing home for hospice to die.
There are not enough ICU beds.
There are not enough ventilators.

So why are we talking about epidemiology?  Why are we talking about mega data?

[Jockey]

I live in Italy part time, my claim to authority.
In fact, I have an apartment in Bergamo, belong to the Bergamo golf course (closed).
My wife has been on the phone with her friends in Bergamo today, like every day since she got home last week.  Her self imposed quarantine ends tomorrow, I hope I don't have IT.


So what's up in Bergamo?
An old friend in a nursing home was diagnosed with the virus.
He went to the ICU at the hospital.
They sent him back to the nursing home for hospice to die.
There are not enough ICU beds.
There are not enough ventilators.

So why are we talking about epidemiology?  Why are we talking about mega data?

Very sad, but that same scenario is happening over and over in Italian hospitals. A doc at one of the largest said they no longer intubate patients over 60 years of age. They are sent home to die. Problem? Lack of ventilators.

If the epidemic here in the US is even close to what it is in Italy, we will be doing the same thing.

[vogue65]

Very sad, but that same scenario is happening over and over in Italian hospitals. A doc at one of the largest said they no longer intubate patients over 60 years of age. They are sent home to die. Problem? Lack of ventilators.

If the epidemic here in the US is even close to what it is in Italy, we will be doing the same thing.

Yes sir.
We have 60 to 70,000 ventilators for intubation. 
So what are we doing?
Statistics, data collection, models, projections, body counts, interviews, studies, talk shows, meetings, etc..

[injuryBug]

I will say this, when the dust settles if we aren't talking about closing all wet markets...with violence if necessary....then imma be really pissed

yes yes and yes

[vogue65]

yes yes and yes

The tourists don't get to see the markets, but they are there.

Italy has sold many factories to the Chinese because to earn the made in Italy designation merchandise must be manufactured in Italy.  However, it does not have to be manufactured BY ITALIANS.

So we have tens of thousands of Chinese workers traveling back and forth between Italy and China to work in the Italian factories.  (Think sweat shops)

Those are the facts, you can draw your own conclusions.

[mu03eng]

Just got clarification from one of the folks I know at the Pentagon....lockdown plan is in place and ready to roll but no trigger pull right now.

[Galway Eagle]

Just got clarification from one of the folks I know at the Pentagon....lockdown plan is in place and ready to roll but no trigger pull right now.

Wow I just rioted for nothing.

[Jockey]

National emergency - Trump

Then he said he takes no responsibility for lack of testing. Then blames Obama for swine flu.

Truman just rolled over in his grave.

[vogue65]

Then he said he takes no responsibility for lack of testing. Then blames Obama for swine flu.

Truman just rolled over in his grave.

And Gen. Kenneth McKenzie takes responsibility for misinformation while to CIC passes the buck.    Harry said, the buck stops here, he knew how to man up.

[MUfan12]

Has anyone been stocking up on supplies? I'm trying to figure out the right way to do this, honestly. Based on my stop at Woodman's today, the panic buying is getting nuts.

[Eldon]

Just got clarification from one of the folks I know at the Pentagon....lockdown plan is in place and ready to roll but no trigger pull right now.

What does a "lockdown" entail in an American context?

[Let's Go Warriors]

What does a "lockdown" entail in an American context?

I have heard from someone who has been dead on all of this since early January that the "lockdown" is going to be for NY, CALI, WASH and NJ.  Though I would think areas in Colorado and Chicago now too.

My GUESS would be no travel in and out of the hot zones.

[MUfan12]

nm

[Galway Eagle]

I have heard from someone who has been dead on all of this since early January that the "lockdown" is going to be for NY, CALI, WASH and NJ.  Though I would think areas in Colorado and Chicago now too.

My GUESS would be no travel in and out of the hot zones.

Is Chicago really a hot zone? I looked at a map yesterday and it said only 3 cases in cook county.

[vogue65]

Has anyone been stocking up on supplies? I'm trying to figure out the right way to do this, honestly. Based on my stop at Woodman's today, the panic buying is getting nuts.

Looks like you may need a years supply.  What is the game?  Being the last man standing?
Last night Tucker Carlson gave out the panic buying shopping list.  Thanks Tucker.

[Let's Go Warriors]

Is Chicago really a hot zone? I looked at a map yesterday and it said only 3 cases in cook county.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Sorry 27 in Cook Country.
I know people from my company that are in the 111 W. Monroe building in Chicago and 1 person there has tested positive as well.

[mu03eng]

What does a "lockdown" entail in an American context?

I'm not privy to the details as my sources are busy and military (so not necessarily directly involved) but the bones of it sound like shuttering of non-essential businesses, schools, and no unnecessary travel(airports closed or limited). Don't know more than that.

[StillAWarrior]

Has anyone been stocking up on supplies? I'm trying to figure out the right way to do this, honestly. Based on my stop at Woodman's today, the panic buying is getting nuts.

My trip to the grocery store -- because we've suddenly and unexpectedly got a house full of college kids -- was...interesting. Honestly, I've never seen anything like it.  Lots and lots of people with very full carts.

[MUfan12]

My trip to the grocery store -- because we've suddenly and unexpectedly got a house full of college kids -- was...interesting. Honestly, I've never seen anything like it.  Lots and lots of people with very full carts.

We don't need a ton, just two of us and a toddler. I just want to make sure we're covered on the essentials for a couple weeks. But even getting that looks like it's gonna be difficult.

[forgetful]

Very sad, but that same scenario is happening over and over in Italian hospitals. A doc at one of the largest said they no longer intubate patients over 60 years of age. They are sent home to die. Problem? Lack of ventilators.

If the epidemic here in the US is even close to what it is in Italy, we will be doing the same thing.

From a doctor friend in Spain. Today is looking like Italy in many hospitals there. Overwhelmed. Basically in a day or two went crazy, expected to get a ton worse in the next few days.