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Author Topic: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")  (Read 1084871 times)

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #800 on: March 11, 2020, 01:42:05 PM »
I am in no way questioning the experts and I have no reason to doubt Dr Fauci but we also need to understand both the source of that reference(in terms of possible accuracy) and intent of using that number. This is literally a scare number(10x) it is meant to drive a call to action and get people to pay attention as opposed to using the "real" number of 1% mortality rate. 1% sounds small and in the grand scheme of virology it is small but that doesn't drive action. So people are going to cling to 10x but context is important

Yes, but he is an expert, understands what he was saying and still chose to say it.  That says something to me.

rocket surgeon

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #801 on: March 11, 2020, 01:55:14 PM »
i've got an interesting situation that would probably not even be considered if not for our pandemic

  my wife is in the end stages of breast cancer treatment.  everything is going great! small, stage 1 no lymph node involvement, totally removed via lumpectomy.  she had 12 weeks of chemo, once per week followed by radiation for 3 weeks and now the antibody, herseptin thru her port every 3 weeks.  during the winter she would stay at our place just outside phoenix and i would join her every few weeks for either a long weekend or a full 7-10 days.  she is due to have her herseptin this coming monday, but with the coronavirus thing we thought we'd see our insurance would cover it in our wisconsin network because it's $20k per dose and we have a whole separate deductible to be met out of network. she went to see an oncologist in phoenix who's willing to work with her oncologist from here.  if our health insurance will not cover it, they were willing to drop the price from $20k to $2k.  this could help her avoid having to fly back and potentially put her at more risk.  my point is, if not for our situation, the insurance, our doc and phoenix doc would probably not even consider this option.  silver lining?  don't know
don't...don't don't don't don't

mu03eng

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #802 on: March 11, 2020, 02:02:01 PM »
Yes, but he is an expert, understands what he was saying and still chose to say it.  That says something to me.

Did you see him say it and the context around it or did you read it through the media filter?
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #803 on: March 11, 2020, 02:21:47 PM »
Did you see him say it and the context around it or did you read it through the media filter?

I read it through multiple articles and looked for one that actually used quotations attributed to the Doctor.

You can watch it here if you want.  His assessment of on trajectory and his opinion on testing starts around 33 mins in (this piece was widely reported). 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbR4NuBTJqo

I cant find his comment on 10X but bloomberg has the video below.  It actually addresses alot of what people are going back and forth on (including H1N1 thing that some have latched onto). 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-11/fauci-warns-coronavirus-far-more-lethal-than-seasonal-flu

« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 02:25:07 PM by Frenns Liquor Depot »

Galway Eagle

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #804 on: March 11, 2020, 02:26:39 PM »
UW Lacrosse and Beloit close.

Confirmed case in downtown Chicago from Prudential center. Is this the first positive case downtown? Because that could start the dominoes down here
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 02:28:44 PM by Galway Eagle »
Maigh Eo for Sam

Spotcheck Billy

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #805 on: March 11, 2020, 02:41:40 PM »
Great idea.  Let's have everyone spend the entire day in completely packed bars instead.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/03/07/during-spanish-flu-milwaukee-closed-churches-schools-not-saloons/4979405002/

In 1918-19, Milwaukee was among the most successful cities in minimizing the impact of the Spanish flu, though not all of the restrictions it imposed were popular. Clergy weren't pleased that in October 1918 the churches were closed, while saloons were not. Although saloons were allowed to remain open as usual for dining, "patrons stopping by for a drink had to consume it quickly and then leave," Navarro said.

Galway Eagle

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #806 on: March 11, 2020, 02:44:54 PM »
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/03/07/during-spanish-flu-milwaukee-closed-churches-schools-not-saloons/4979405002/

In 1918-19, Milwaukee was among the most successful cities in minimizing the impact of the Spanish flu, though not all of the restrictions it imposed were popular. Clergy weren't pleased that in October 1918 the churches were closed, while saloons were not. Although saloons were allowed to remain open as usual for dining, "patrons stopping by for a drink had to consume it quickly and then leave," Navarro said.

So the Spanish Flu created the original bar crawl?
Maigh Eo for Sam

reinko

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #807 on: March 11, 2020, 02:55:58 PM »
So the Spanish Flu created the original bar crawl?

Just got reminded of the Spanish O’Donnells, talk about a pandemic inducing event.


GB Warrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #808 on: March 11, 2020, 02:59:18 PM »
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/03/07/during-spanish-flu-milwaukee-closed-churches-schools-not-saloons/4979405002/

In 1918-19, Milwaukee was among the most successful cities in minimizing the impact of the Spanish flu, though not all of the restrictions it imposed were popular. Clergy weren't pleased that in October 1918 the churches were closed, while saloons were not. Although saloons were allowed to remain open as usual for dining, "patrons stopping by for a drink had to consume it quickly and then leave," Navarro said.

Didn't get the flu, but did get Millerlitis

Galway Eagle

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #809 on: March 11, 2020, 03:02:01 PM »
Just got reminded of the Spanish O’Donnells, talk about a pandemic inducing event.

Oh god. I remember when that was played at house parties around campus...
Maigh Eo for Sam

Jockey

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #810 on: March 11, 2020, 03:32:54 PM »
If we draw a line with a sharpie around the entire country, won’t that keep the germs out?

It’s pretty pathetic that we have to look to governors and mayors to deal with a national crisis.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 03:35:36 PM by Jockey »

Jockey

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #811 on: March 11, 2020, 03:52:31 PM »
No fans for March Madness. Family only.

Should be “interesting” viewing.

Golden Avalanche

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #812 on: March 11, 2020, 04:04:21 PM »
No fans for March Madness. Family only.

Should be “interesting” viewing.

Well, at least we won't have to worry about MU fans harassing the Howard family.

mu03eng

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #813 on: March 11, 2020, 05:17:23 PM »
One last kind of diatribe, and no I'm not a doctor but I've read a lot of books/SME papers and stayed in a number of Holiday Inn Expresses over the years.

There are four main factors of concern for communicable diseases, especially viruses:
-How contagious they are
-How deadly they are
-How alterable they are (how often/extensively they mutate)
-How much we can intervene

Each disease has it's own balance of these four factors that make it what it is. Consider them design trade-offs, something that almost assuredly kills you is also very likely not to be all that contagious and/or a sick person is easily identifiable. Or a disease is highly alterable (there are hundreds of flu mutations) but that variability means that the virus tends to be low on the kill scale because it has to exist in a host for a long time to mutate meaning the host needs to remain alive to support the mutation so to speak. Take some common disease examples, flu, HIV, and Ebola.

Flu is highly contagious and has a high mutation rate but has a low kill rate (0.1%) and allows for moderate intervention (there is some vaccination success and if you get it you can generally treat at home....remember the flu wants to mutate so it needs as many hosts as possible to live as long as possible ie evolution)

HIV is moderately contagious (it's not airborne nor tactile but transmission through blood is a very certain infection) and it is easily disguised (until it becomes AIDS you don't know someone has HIV). However HIV has almost no mutation to it so once you get a handle on it generally you can intervene and/or prevent it's transmission.

Ebola is very contagious if you come in contact with someone who has it, but that person is very visible sick meaning the virus transmission rate is pretty low. It doesn't really mutate(kills too fast) but it's kill rate is very high. So containment is the order of the day because A) you can see it and B) you can't intervene once someone gets it.

As far as Coronavirus, what we know is that it is highly contagious (long incubation period without symptoms and remains on surfaces for a while) but the trade off is that generally the symptoms are mild as a trade off for the long incubation period. What we don't yet know is how much it can/will mutate....if it mutates a lot it will become seasonal, if it doesn't mutate much or at all we can eradicate it like Small Pox, etc. It's kill rate is higher than we are "comfortable" with but that is largely because it is a new virus that we haven't figured out the interventions on and it is exhibiting an tendency to "swarm" creating a lot of carriers and those carriers with underlying conditions become critical which flood the system resulting if likely higher than what will become the standard kill rate.

Bottom line, if we slow the infection rate (this virus cannot be contained) we buy time for the healthcare system to treat the critical patients at a more reasonable rate(which will lower the mortality rate) AND we develop interventions whether its a vaccine or standard response options, or a herd immunity.

All the above is what organizations like the CDC are trying to accomplish but given the relative ignorance of the general public in this subject matter area they are forced to be more alarmist then necessary to try and drive the right behavior.....lump in a broken political system and American culture and you get a 30 page thread on scope about it and the stupidity of stocking up on toilet paper.

Limiting large crowds or working from home for a while or not putting a bunch of kids in dorms for a while makes sense and will slow the infection rate until it's largely distributed through out the population. This is temporary and life will likely return to whatever passes for normal within 6-9 months barring some new intel on the virus. It is neither time to panic nor be cavalier. All will be well.


"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

GooooMarquette

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #814 on: March 11, 2020, 05:26:58 PM »
U of Minnesota extending Spring Break by a week, then moving all classes online until further notice. I suspect it won’t be long before all schools do this.


rocket surgeon

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #816 on: March 11, 2020, 07:28:29 PM »
  so when is it going to be officially "safe" to resume living our lives?  when a proven vaccine comes out?  so will this be like the small pox vaccine or whatever that was, sugar cube in a small paper cup?  back in the 60's?  i remember the lines into the high school gymnasium.  what about the anti-vaccine crowd? 

don't...don't don't don't don't

forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #817 on: March 11, 2020, 07:34:45 PM »

As far as Coronavirus, what we know is that it is highly contagious (long incubation period without symptoms and remains on surfaces for a while) but the trade off is that generally the symptoms are mild as a trade off for the long incubation period. What we don't yet know is how much it can/will mutate....if it mutates a lot it will become seasonal, if it doesn't mutate much or at all we can eradicate it like Small Pox, etc. It's kill rate is higher than we are "comfortable" with but that is largely because it is a new virus that we haven't figured out the interventions on and it is exhibiting an tendency to "swarm" creating a lot of carriers and those carriers with underlying conditions become critical which flood the system resulting if likely higher than what will become the standard kill rate.


Some misconceptions here and some other misconceptions in other places in this thread (not necessarily from you).

The coronavirus is actually not that infectious compared to many other diseases.

The symptoms are mild in some people, but very aggressive in others. Bilateral pneumonia that includes in some cases permanent lung damage is not mild. That is very aggressive.

We actually do know how quickly it mutates. Coronviruses mutate reasonably rapidly, and our immune system sucks at gaining long-term immunity. That is why you can often get the same cold twice in one season.

Related misconception that I saw on here, where someone stated that viruses don't mutate to become more aggressive or deadly. That is technically not true. Viruses don't specifically mutate towards any end goal. Mutations are random, some can make it far more aggressive and deadly, others less aggressive. There is no way over a short term to predict which will occur. Over the long term, survival of the fittest wins, and a less deadly form will dominate. That would be over many many generations of the virus. In the short term, it can mutate to a more deadly strain. We can't predict which direction it will go...its random.

We actually likely know the actual kill rate. In China they were going door to door testing everyone repeatedly. China likely had fairly accurate numbers, similar in Korea. They may be off, but they'd be off by something like 10-20%, maybe 30%. That would bring the death rates down to around the 1-2% that the WHO and CDC are predicting, 10x higher than the flu.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 07:46:01 PM by forgetful »

forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #818 on: March 11, 2020, 07:36:10 PM »
  so when is it going to be officially "safe" to resume living our lives?  when a proven vaccine comes out?  so will this be like the small pox vaccine or whatever that was, sugar cube in a small paper cup?  back in the 60's?  i remember the lines into the high school gymnasium.  what about the anti-vaccine crowd?

If we don't stop the spread, this will just become a part of life. I'd largely resume your normal life now, with minor extra precautions, e.g. more diligent about washing hands and in the short term, being a little more pragmatic about whether you attend events with large crowds.

forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #819 on: March 11, 2020, 07:53:10 PM »
Cool, but kind of eerie pictures in this article. Especially if you've been to some of these places and know what it usually looks like this time of year.

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2020/03/empty-spaces-due-coronavirus-fears/607666/


mu_hilltopper

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #820 on: March 11, 2020, 08:10:49 PM »
If you haven't been terrified in the past few minutes, try this link:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/

Highlights:

"There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems).

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities.

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."

She added: "This virus is so infectious that the only way to avoid a 'massacre' is to have the least number possible getting infected over the longest possible timescale.

"Right now, if we get 10,000 people in Italy in need of ventilators - when we only have 3,000 in the country - 7,000 people will die.

"Rome right now is like where Milan was 10 days ago. In 10 days there has been an incredible escalation.

"Lombardy, which has the best healthcare in the country, is collapsing, so I don’t dare to think what would happen in less efficient regions.

"But the very young are crazy carriers.

"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".


"All the resuscitation bays are full. They’re having to triage, deciding who to intubate and who to let die."


He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

"There aren’t the resources to screen doctors for Covid-19 anymore - they’re just telling them 'stay home if you have symptoms, otherwise come to work'."

The World Health Organisation ranks Italy second in the world for health care provision, with only France rated higher. The UK is 18th.

And yet even a system as good as this is teetering on the brink.


Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #821 on: March 11, 2020, 08:22:02 PM »
If you haven't been terrified in the past few minutes, try this link:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/

Highlights:

"There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems).

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities.

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."

She added: "This virus is so infectious that the only way to avoid a 'massacre' is to have the least number possible getting infected over the longest possible timescale.

"Right now, if we get 10,000 people in Italy in need of ventilators - when we only have 3,000 in the country - 7,000 people will die.

"Rome right now is like where Milan was 10 days ago. In 10 days there has been an incredible escalation.

"Lombardy, which has the best healthcare in the country, is collapsing, so I don’t dare to think what would happen in less efficient regions.

"But the very young are crazy carriers.

"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".


"All the resuscitation bays are full. They’re having to triage, deciding who to intubate and who to let die."


He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

"There aren’t the resources to screen doctors for Covid-19 anymore - they’re just telling them 'stay home if you have symptoms, otherwise come to work'."

The World Health Organisation ranks Italy second in the world for health care provision, with only France rated higher. The UK is 18th.

And yet even a system as good as this is teetering on the brink.


'just the flu'

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #822 on: March 11, 2020, 08:42:22 PM »
Serious rumor that the rest of the NBA season is postponed.

Also, Tom Hanks and his wife have tested positive in Australia.

Well, its not a rumor.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28887560/nba-suspends-season-further-notice-player-tests-positive-coronavirus

So much for the Bucks... Christ.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 08:44:46 PM by Hards_Alumni »

Sir Lawrence

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #823 on: March 11, 2020, 08:48:56 PM »
Hiatus.  Whatever that means. 
Ludum habemus.

Blackhat

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #824 on: March 11, 2020, 09:36:46 PM »
I will give you one guess which country is the world's largest producer of human vaccines?

China

The media machine is powerful.  This is a good test though of are you and your emotions a sheep to the powerful media machine or not.