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Author Topic: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")  (Read 1085114 times)

mu_hilltopper

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #350 on: March 01, 2020, 08:46:43 AM »

Goose

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #351 on: March 01, 2020, 09:44:25 AM »
Topper

We have been monitoring the pollution and traffic pattern. While things are quite slow, things are picking up daily.

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #352 on: March 01, 2020, 09:48:47 AM »
so anyone who believes different from another is a "partisan hack?  interesting...not.  medicine is a science, human rights is not.  refute dr drews facts, fine.  people can choose to believe him or not, just as those who choose to believe the opposite..  that's the beauty of this country.  so is name calling i guess.

here's a good example- is dr sanjay gupta a doctor?  is he a "partisan hack"? 

    yes he is a doctor who happens to believe differently than i do, but i'm not going to refer to him as a hack.  you see where i am going with this?  no need for the inflammatory/ angry language

  never said he should or shouldn't be in this administration,  i said if...

so fluff, how much do you have to practice in order to be a doctor?  or how many patients?  nice try though.  if a woman is 1 or 2 mos. pregnant, she's barely pregnant, right?

I'll take doctors who don't create stupid names for themselves and create media careers over these losers any day.  That's my point.  I don't give two turds about what Gupta has to say either.  Listen to experts, not people like Dr. Drew who are self serving entertainers.  This isn't difficult stuff.

forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #353 on: March 01, 2020, 10:19:17 AM »

Is't that the same thing that happened with the 1919 pandemic?  That it was the body's overreaction to the infection that killed more than the actual infection did?

Yes and no. The death rates are actually pretty low for young people from Covid, ~0.2%. Its just that only around 0.5 per 100,000 (0.0005%) die in that age range from the flu and/or pneumonia. It is their own immune system killing them.

The difference with the Spanish flu was that the actual death rate for young people was as large for the young as the 80+ group. That does not appear to be the case here.

For those keeping track at home. The death rates for coronavirus are about the same as for the Spanish flu.

forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #354 on: March 01, 2020, 11:01:19 AM »
I really think this new focus on defusing hysteria is counter-productive.

The more hysteria, the more likely people go to hospitals and get tested. That makes it more likely they do not go to work, and do not spread this through their community. If they aren't worried, they'll go through life like normal and this thing becomes an epidemic across the US.

JWags85

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #355 on: March 01, 2020, 03:13:31 PM »
Topper

We have been monitoring the pollution and traffic pattern. While things are quite slow, things are picking up daily.

What are you seeing from your customers? I had a good chunk of my Chinese accounts go back into the office last week and were aiming at rush orders to be entered this week to start to catch up. Which is good news for us.

I really think this new focus on defusing hysteria is counter-productive.

The more hysteria, the more likely people go to hospitals and get tested. That makes it more likely they do not go to work, and do not spread this through their community. If they aren't worried, they'll go through life like normal and this thing becomes an epidemic across the US.

To play the devils advocate, or is it to get expectations and worry at a manageable level? People clearing out Costco for non-perishables and stocking up like the end of the world is coming is not productive either. My GF’s company in NYC was working on protocol for people working from home for up to 3 weeks.  When there hasn’t been a diagnosed case in the city yet.

Preparing for yet unseen snarls in the supply chain seems reasonable and necessary, as does corralling expectations that people will need to live in a well stocked, barricaded bubble until it’s been eradicated

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #356 on: March 01, 2020, 03:32:23 PM »
What are you seeing from your customers? I had a good chunk of my Chinese accounts go back into the office last week and were aiming at rush orders to be entered this week to start to catch up. Which is good news for us.

To play the devils advocate, or is it to get expectations and worry at a manageable level? People clearing out Costco for non-perishables and stocking up like the end of the world is coming is not productive either. My GF’s company in NYC was working on protocol for people working from home for up to 3 weeks.  When there hasn’t been a diagnosed case in the city yet.

Preparing for yet unseen snarls in the supply chain seems reasonable and necessary, as does corralling expectations that people will need to live in a well stocked, barricaded bubble until it’s been eradicated

Wags,
My sister company reopened last week and they believe they will be able to catch up working weekends.  The plant manager there said other companies were planning the same.

My trade show in Germany Mar 30-Apr 3 was officially postponed this morning.  It's an every-other-year show so I'm guessing they will run it in 2021 instead followed by 2022.

Goose

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #357 on: March 01, 2020, 03:41:10 PM »
JWags

I am more concerned on the demand side moving forward. Supply chains are slowly opening up and believe, barring any additional impact in China in regards to the virus, that supply is not going to be an issue.

I am becoming more and more concerned on the demand side and economic affect by the day. Unknowns make decision making difficult and there are a slew of unknowns at the moment.

In addition, I remember my Dad telling me 40+years ago that you can talk yourself into a recession and that is my concern. I still believe the economic fall out is going by what this time in history is remembered for. Truthfully, would rather live with that than a big number of deaths and hope neither make this a bigger crisis.

Again, virtually all factories we work with are open, but degrees of production ranges from under 20% to about 80%. Shipping bottlenecks can be a problem in the short term, especially on the air freight side. Not many planes heading that way.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #358 on: March 01, 2020, 04:04:05 PM »
JWags

I am more concerned on the demand side moving forward. Supply chains are slowly opening up and believe, barring any additional impact in China in regards to the virus, that supply is not going to be an issue.

I am becoming more and more concerned on the demand side and economic affect by the day. Unknowns make decision making difficult and there are a slew of unknowns at the moment.

In addition, I remember my Dad telling me 40+years ago that you can talk yourself into a recession and that is my concern. I still believe the economic fall out is going by what this time in history is remembered for. Truthfully, would rather live with that than a big number of deaths and hope neither make this a bigger crisis.

Again, virtually all factories we work with are open, but degrees of production ranges from under 20% to about 80%. Shipping bottlenecks can be a problem in the short term, especially on the air freight side. Not many planes heading that way.

Manufacturing has been slow the last 9 months.  Every manufacturer I have spoken to recently has said the same. 

JWags85

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #359 on: March 01, 2020, 04:16:34 PM »
Goose and MU, appreciate the perspective.

My business is two fold here as not only production/manufacturing effected, but China is our second largest sales market (which was on track to become #1 with a bullet in 2018).

Diamonds and Jewelery sales ground to a halt with the trade war. Q4 2019 we started to see a bit of movement. Some of our bigger customers were buying at higher than Q1-Q3 levels, before the virus happened. So while demand still may be an issue moving forward, we are working off of 80%ish pullbacks in 2019 from what we were used to seeing, so we’d frankly be thrilled with clawing any of that back even if demand is weakened.

Hoping that this may actually be a net positive for the trade situation and we see injections to stimulate the Chinese economy that inspires some consumer confidence.

I’m expecting March to be cautious and then a spike in April/May, which for my business would be welcome cause May-July is traditionally very slow

Goose

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #360 on: March 01, 2020, 04:37:24 PM »
MU Fan

I think manufacturing has been slow for far longer than nine months. That said, somewhat hard to quantify because of the great of over capacity in many sectors. Too many factories making the same products makes it difficult to judge. There are going to be a lot of shuttered factories in the upcoming months.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #361 on: March 01, 2020, 05:44:19 PM »
MU Fan

I think manufacturing has been slow for far longer than nine months. That said, somewhat hard to quantify because of the great of over capacity in many sectors. Too many factories making the same products makes it difficult to judge. There are going to be a lot of shuttered factories in the upcoming months.

Goose,
I agree with what you said.  And to piggyback oversupply:
What I don't like and I've seen, and I've heard from others the same, is seeing my competitors drop prices to ridiculous low prices and I have to also just to retain business   My company's in a niche market and mine is recognized s the quality leader.  I get "The other guy dropped his price and I'll pay more for your product but not that much more.". Then we have to evaluate if we can offer something barely profitable.  The worst part is there is no way the competitors are making much if anything at the offered prices.  We know the process and their geographic location and it's not the Far East.  Everyone loses.
Automotive customers are a blessing because they hate qualifying new suppliers.  Too much expensive testing.

Goose

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #362 on: March 01, 2020, 06:43:01 PM »
MU Fan

We are putting a lot of time and money qualifying new suppliers in Vietnam and lack of supply capacity is a big issue. Finding right suppliers is a challenge in some industries, finding suppliers that can take and make volume is a bigger obstacle for us.

We have had a high rate of inquiries from tier one and tier two auto component suppliers looking to qualify suppliers in Vietnam and Thailand. Thailand is further along in auto components, but I believe Vietnam is going to catch up in short order.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #363 on: March 01, 2020, 10:27:52 PM »
MU Fan

We are putting a lot of time and money qualifying new suppliers in Vietnam and lack of supply capacity is a big issue. Finding right suppliers is a challenge in some industries, finding suppliers that can take and make volume is a bigger obstacle for us.

We have had a high rate of inquiries from tier one and tier two auto component suppliers looking to qualify suppliers in Vietnam and Thailand. Thailand is further along in auto components, but I believe Vietnam is going to catch up in short order.

We're actually working with a customer in Vietnam.  We supply to this companies plants throughout the world and are trying to add this one.

curbina

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #364 on: March 02, 2020, 12:22:44 AM »
NCAA Pressured to Consider Playing March Madness With No Fans - Bloomberg

by Hailey Waller

The head of the National College Players Association says the NCAA may need to be play March Madness with no fans to protect college athletes from coronavirus.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/ncaa-pressured-to-consider-playing-march-madness-with-no-fans
“You will never reach your destination if you stop and throw stones at every dog that barks.”
- Winston S. Churchill

rocket surgeon

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #365 on: March 02, 2020, 06:21:22 AM »
to protect the athletes from contacting the virus?  that's got to be a misprint or your short sighted opinion, with all due respect.  we may have lionized certain people in our society, but if it weren't for the fans, these "athletes" wouldn't be worth a chit.  let's just say that if the games were to be canceled, it should be for the health and safety of everyone
don't...don't don't don't don't

cheebs09

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #366 on: March 02, 2020, 07:40:19 AM »
to protect the athletes from contacting the virus?  that's got to be a misprint or your short sighted opinion, with all due respect.  we may have lionized certain people in our society, but if it weren't for the fans, these "athletes" wouldn't be worth a chit.  let's just say that if the games were to be canceled, it should be for the health and safety of everyone

This came from the National College Players Association. They are going to focus on the group they represent. I’m sure they recognize that it would be done for the good of everyone, not just the players.

jficke13

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #367 on: March 02, 2020, 08:46:18 AM »

Is't that the same thing that happened with the 1919 pandemic?  That it was the body's overreaction to the infection that killed more than the actual infection did?

To my knowledge, Spanish flu killed in primarily two ways.

1. Cytokine storm, which was essentially the body's overreaction to the infection. People who died this way were often between 18-40ish years old and otherwise healthy. From first symptom to death was usually a rapid deterioration.

2. Secondary pneumonia. The primary virus did enough damage to the respiratory system that bacterial pneumonias were extremely easy to contract and extremely hard to fight. This was so common that the researchers named a *bacteria* Haemophilus influenzae because they were convinced it was the cause of the flu. (1918-1919 was really the hinge point of when medical science started to get its feet on the ground).

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #368 on: March 02, 2020, 10:15:43 AM »
To my knowledge, Spanish flu killed in primarily two ways.

1. Cytokine storm, which was essentially the body's overreaction to the infection. People who died this way were often between 18-40ish years old and otherwise healthy. From first symptom to death was usually a rapid deterioration.

2. Secondary pneumonia. The primary virus did enough damage to the respiratory system that bacterial pneumonias were extremely easy to contract and extremely hard to fight. This was so common that the researchers named a *bacteria* Haemophilus influenzae because they were convinced it was the cause of the flu. (1918-1919 was really the hinge point of when medical science started to get its feet on the ground).


Thank you.  I was think primarily of #1. 
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Benny B

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #369 on: March 02, 2020, 11:10:34 AM »
I was curious about some of the aspects comparing death statistics between influenza and Covid. It is true that those that are elderly are most likely to die (14.8% death rate for people over age 80), but comparing the death rate to influenza shows how much more dangerous Covid is.

For those between 10-19. You are 400 times more likely to die if you get infected with the coronavirus than the flu.
For those between 20-29. The likelihood is around 300 times more likely.
For those between 30-39. 125 times more likely.
For those between 40-49. 125 times more likely.
For those between 50-59. 125 times more likely.
For those between 60-69. 100 times more likely.
For those between 70-79. 60 times more likely.
For those between 80+. 30 times more likely.

So although the overall risk of dying is highest for those that are elderly. The young are hit comparatively harder by Covid.

I see what you're trying to say, but you're doing a really good job of not saying it well.

Instead of giving the sensationalism of the multiplier, the data would be of much greater value if you showed the death rate for each of the cohorts side by side.

Also, are you talking just Covid-19 or any coronavirus?

For example... who's being hit "comparatively" harder in the following scenario?
10-19: death rate from flu 0.00001%; death rate from coronavirus 0.004%  (400 times greater)
80+: death rate from flu 0.667%; death rate from coronavirus 20%  (30 times greater)

Without perspective, facts still matter.  Statistics don't.

Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #370 on: March 02, 2020, 11:22:44 AM »
NCAA Pressured to Consider Playing March Madness With No Fans - Bloomberg

by Hailey Waller

The head of the National College Players Association says the NCAA may need to be play March Madness with no fans to protect college athletes from coronavirus.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/ncaa-pressured-to-consider-playing-march-madness-with-no-fans

lmfao.  So protect the kids when they are playing in the tournament by banning fans.  What about the rest of the time these kids are moving about the REAL WORLD?

I get what he is trying to do, but my Lord, what a dipstick.

Spotcheck Billy

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #371 on: March 02, 2020, 11:39:26 AM »
To my knowledge, Spanish flu killed in primarily two ways.

1. Cytokine storm, which was essentially the body's overreaction to the infection. People who died this way were often between 18-40ish years old and otherwise healthy. From first symptom to death was usually a rapid deterioration.

2. Secondary pneumonia. The primary virus did enough damage to the respiratory system that bacterial pneumonias were extremely easy to contract and extremely hard to fight. This was so common that the researchers named a *bacteria* Haemophilus influenzae because they were convinced it was the cause of the flu. (1918-1919 was really the hinge point of when medical science started to get its feet on the ground).

I think it was # 2 that killed both of the Dodge brothers leading to the forced sale of Dodge to Chrysler.


Jockey

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #373 on: March 02, 2020, 01:48:44 PM »
Aren’t we down to zero cases in the U. S.?

That’s what we were told last week.

rocket surgeon

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #374 on: March 02, 2020, 03:12:21 PM »
gilead up almost 9% today.  hopefully their drug has been showing some efficacy in testing phase, maybe fast track it to some of the most severe cases?   
don't...don't don't don't don't