COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[#UnleashSean]

Uwm will be extending their spring break another week. Marquette will probably follow by tomorrow.

[Let's Go Warriors]

There is almost 0 possibility that there are no cases in Milwaukee right now.  Its just a matter of getting the people tested at this point.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

In 1 hour, our flight to NYC and the BET will depart without us on it. Too much concern over being quarantined in NYC for 14 days because we came in contact with someone who tested positive. Much less concern over actually contracting covid (we're close to the at risk age group). I must say that AA and Hilton were very understanding and we didn't really lose much for our last minute decision.

Thanks to everyone for their contributions to this thread (despite the usual Scoop sidetracking).

[mu03eng]

One note, I want to say I'm ambivalent on the wide spread testing as I'm not sure how much positive it actually does but if the scientists/doctors say we should do more I'm all for it. However, we have to get better about reporting on test results. It's a true or false result but almost more important is if true, where on the incubation spectrum are you, etc. Reports are breathless with "11 more cases today, or 6 more positive tests today", etc. This portrayal of infections just popping up out of nowhere is adding to a lot of unnecessary panic

[shoothoops]

This is how the Coronavirus spread among 70 people at the Biogen conference in Boston.

https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1237710962326732800?s=19

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

All Indiana University campuses are on-line only classes till April

My kid is home on spring break from Xavier now and got the note that classes are online until April 14 after Easter break.  They can go back to the dorms after spring break but was highly recommended they stay home.

[MUBurrow]

This is how the Coronavirus spread among 70 people at the Biogen conference in Boston.

https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1237710962326732800?s=19

Somehow I must have missed this previously, but after reading this article - it would seem pretty clear that covid-19 can spread from a person not currently exhibiting symptoms, yes?  Its hard to believe that all of the people that got sick at that conference caught the virus from someone exhibiting symptoms.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This is how the Coronavirus spread among 70 people at the Biogen conference in Boston.

https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1237710962326732800?s=19

That's an interesting article. 

This seems to spread easier than 'flu' from an uneducated eye.  Has there been any research put out yet on this?  Is it just that more people are inoculated to flu and it has a harder time spreading?

edit: i guess this article kind of answers my question.  https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/09/people-shed-high-levels-of-coronavirus-study-finds-but-most-are-likely-not-infectious-after-recovery-begins/

[StillAWarrior]

And......Georgetown moves to "virtual learning" until further notice.


"We are moving all class room instruction for all of our schools to virtual learning environments. Beginning Monday, March 16th, we are suspending all in-person, face-to-face, on-campus classroom instruction. This will continue until further notice...We strongly encourage all undergraduate students to return to their permanent addresses while this virtual learning environment is in place. Students should avoid returning to campus if possible or return to campus briefly to gather necessary items for the completion of academic work before departing to their permanent addresses. We understand that for some number of students there will be a compelling reason to remain on campus. Campus will be open and key services will be available."


They're all falling like dominoes now. Marquette won't be far behind. I'm sure the pressure is immense. Nobody wants to be accused of not doing enough...especially when everyone else is acting.

[The Sultan]

And......Georgetown moves to "virtual learning" until further notice.


"We are moving all class room instruction for all of our schools to virtual learning environments. Beginning Monday, March 16th, we are suspending all in-person, face-to-face, on-campus classroom instruction. This will continue until further notice...We strongly encourage all undergraduate students to return to their permanent addresses while this virtual learning environment is in place. Students should avoid returning to campus if possible or return to campus briefly to gather necessary items for the completion of academic work before departing to their permanent addresses. We understand that for some number of students there will be a compelling reason to remain on campus. Campus will be open and key services will be available."


They're all falling like dominoes now. Marquette won't be far behind. I'm sure the pressure is immense. Nobody wants to be accused of not doing enough...especially when everyone else is acting.

It's not only that, but once you realize your responsibilities to the community should someone become sick, it becomes very hard for a campus to manage the problem with thousands of students on site.

[injuryBug]

I do not really get what a complete lockdown will do besides put off the inevitable? People are going to get covid19 that is a fact.  So if I hide in my house for 6 weeks it will still be around when I come back out unless the entire world goes into lockdown. Those that are high risk should get moved to the front of the line for treatment.  I think of my parents and my father in law.  How on earth can they avoid it?

[Hards Alumni]

I do not really get what a complete lockdown will do besides put off the inevitable? People are going to get covid19 that is a fact.  So if I hide in my house for 6 weeks it will still be around when I come back out unless the entire world goes into lockdown. Those that are high risk should get moved to the front of the line for treatment.  I think of my parents and my father in law.  How on earth can they avoid it?

Lockdowns prevent community spread.  The slow down the rate at which people become infected.  That is key to not having our healthcare system overwhelmed.  If it becomes overwhelmed, we get to make the hard decisions that Italy is currently facing, and that China most certainly faced.  When there is only so much medical equipment, beds, and staff who lives and who dies becomes a decision that no one wants to make.

[MUBurrow]

I do not really get what a complete lockdown will do besides put off the inevitable? People are going to get covid19 that is a fact.  So if I hide in my house for 6 weeks it will still be around when I come back out unless the entire world goes into lockdown. Those that are high risk should get moved to the front of the line for treatment.  I think of my parents and my father in law.  How on earth can they avoid it?

https://twitter.com/JeremyKonyndyk/status/1237609912412196865

"The core objective... is slowing spread enough to buy time for hospitals to stay on top of critical cases.  Need a multi-track strategy to suppress outbreak while expanding clinical bandwith to treat.  That's the ballgame."

[forgetful]

Lockdowns prevent community spread.  The slow down the rate at which people become infected.  That is key to not having our healthcare system overwhelmed.  If it becomes overwhelmed, we get to make the hard decisions that Italy is currently facing, and that China most certainly faced.  When there is only so much medical equipment, beds, and staff who lives and who dies becomes a decision that no one wants to make.

It worked in China, where infections have almost ceased. They may have beaten it, not just slowed it.

It'll be interesting if it pops back up there, and/or if other countries can replicate that type of authoritarian restrictions.

If other countries can replicate it, this can be beaten without millions of infections.

But if it keeps popping back up, and some point one has to ask, how long can we quarantine entire countries, and at what cost?

[MUBurrow]

But if it keeps popping back up, and some point one has to ask, how long can we quarantine entire countries, and at what cost?

I think the goal here would be get to summer, when infection rates for this type of thing naturally slow, and hopefully use that time to bolster our healthcare capacity to adjust to a new, covid-19 reality.  But I'm sure others are much more knowledgeable about this endgame than me.

We've been peppering this thread with potential "new post covid-19 panic" implications, and maybe here's another one - an increase in medical care capacity that honestly was probably increasingly necessary as the boomers aged anyway.  If we boost our medical care infrastructure in a way that sticks, and we adjust to the boomers' health care needs by increasing supply more, and just trying to manage demand less, that's probably a silver lining from this.

[Coleman]

It is inevitable this virus will spread and it will kill, tragic but death is a part of life. I don't say this casually as my parents are high risk, my sons godfather is 42 and has Cystic fibrosis, and I have a 4 year old and a 9 month old. We aren't going to stop it and we aren't going to take mortality rate to zero. We try to limit the damage and slow the curve but given the current understanding of the virus it is no time to hit the panic button as some seem to advocate.

I have a 2 month old. Silver lining is that right now all signs point to our kids being very low risk.

[The Sultan]

Also, no one is seriously suggesting a lock down. 

Limit your travel and large group events.  But go to work.  Go to the store.  Go out to eat. 

And I know that eliminating travel and events isn't always possible, and that's OK.

[Hards Alumni]

I think the goal here would be get to summer, when infection rates for this type of thing naturally slow, and hopefully use that time to bolster our healthcare capacity to adjust to a new, covid-19 reality.  But I'm sure others are much more knowledgeable about this endgame than me.

We've been peppering this thread with potential "new post covid-19 panic" implications, and maybe here's another one - an increase in medical care capacity that honestly was probably increasingly necessary as the boomers aged anyway.  If we boost our medical care infrastructure in a way that sticks, and we adjust to the boomers' health care needs by increasing supply more, and just trying to manage demand less, that's probably a silver lining from this.

There isn't any evidence warmer temperatures and higher humidity have an impact on this virus.  Plenty of warm, humid places faced this head on.

[Eldon]

Quite frankly, the medical community does not want things to change. They profit dramatically from the red-tape and hurdles.

Also, the MD's greatly overestimate the complexity of routine tests and the logistics of handling large numbers of samples and large sets of data. This in part stems from medical testing facilities often hiring poorly skilled technicians that don't care about their job.

There is no reason that even a small facility couldn't be running 5-10k tests a day. At that scale you could run these for $2 a sample, including labor for a highly skilled PhD level research technicians.

We haven't ran 10k tests nationwide yet.

We are going to have to agree to disagree on the feasibility of large scale testing and drive through facilities.

Just curious: where did you get your MD or MPH?

I'm kidding/making a point.

[The Sultan]

Lockdowns prevent community spread.  The slow down the rate at which people become infected.  That is key to not having our healthcare system overwhelmed.  If it becomes overwhelmed, we get to make the hard decisions that Italy is currently facing, and that China most certainly faced.  When there is only so much medical equipment, beds, and staff who lives and who dies becomes a decision that no one wants to make.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

[Benny B]

There isn't any evidence warmer temperatures and higher humidity have an impact on this virus.  Plenty of warm, humid places faced this head on.

It's not temp/humidity, it's the communal behavior... people are mostly indoors during the winter months and thus, person-to-person contact increases significantly.  Climate is not as much of a factor in places like China and Italy where person-to-person contact is elevated all of the time.

In other words, as population density rises, climate's effect on person-to-person contact diminishes.  So summer isn't going to help NYC, NJ, SF, etc., but it may slow things down in flyover country.

[Galway Eagle]

Chicago just cancelled the downtown, south side and northwest side st Patrick's day parades.

[mu_hilltopper]

There isn't any evidence warmer temperatures and higher humidity have an impact on this virus.  Plenty of warm, humid places faced this head on.

Yep.  They've tested the virus .. it can exist on surfaces for 3 days at 98 degrees F.   

That's a lot of days.  Warm temps will help move people outside rather than inside, but .. it's not a magic bullet.

[Hards Alumni]

Just curious: where did you get your MD or MPH?

I'm kidding/making a point.

Which is?

[Bocephys]

It's not temp/humidity, it's the communal behavior... people are mostly indoors during the winter months and thus, person-to-person contact increases significantly.  Climate is not as much of a factor in places like China and Italy where person-to-person contact is elevated all of the time.

In other words, as population density rises, climate's effect on person-to-person contact diminishes.  So summer isn't going to help NYC, NJ, SF, etc., but it may slow things down in flyover country.

Shouldn't India's totals be much higher then?