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Author Topic: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")  (Read 1086037 times)

Eldon

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #775 on: March 11, 2020, 10:24:15 AM »
Which is?

That you don't need an advanced degree to criticize experts like doctors and the CDC.


Warrior2008

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #776 on: March 11, 2020, 10:25:19 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

We're passed a point of containment and into mitigation to flatten the curve so to speak.  Government enforced quarantine's will become more common and widespread.  A significant portion of schools, if not most, will be excused.  An expansion of the air travel ban to infected areas(areas of Europe not already included) will most certainly happen. 

Its possible this was unavoidable in a free society, but not having adequate testing available when this popped up removed any doubt about being able to respond to this via a containment strategy.

Hards Alumni

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #777 on: March 11, 2020, 10:39:33 AM »
That you don't need an advanced degree to criticize experts like doctors and the CDC.

word.

Benny B

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #778 on: March 11, 2020, 10:56:40 AM »
Shouldn't India's totals be much higher then?

Climate's effect is not a correlation; it's a catalyst (or whatever the opposite of a catalyst is).  However, density can be both a correlation and a catalyst... so in the case of India, they might be more susceptible to spread, but the absolute number of cases depends on how deeply the country was "inoculated" to begin with, i.e. how many Indians were exposed, where are they in the country, with how many people did they have contact before diagnosis, etc. 

For example, if you have 5 people who returned to the US from Wuhan and tested positive two weeks later, there's a huge difference between a scenario where all five of these people have been roaming around Cheyenne, WY for the past two weeks as opposed to a scenario where one is roaming NYC, one is roaming LA, one in Houston, one in Atlanta and one in Chicago.


We also have to take into account that all numbers are being underreported to varying degrees, especially if people exhibit mild symptoms or self-treat (and aren't counted).  So if - hypothetically - there was a cultural tendency to not seek care in the areas of India where the virus is widespread, the actual cases may be 5x, 10x, 50x what is being reported currently.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

jesmu84

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #779 on: March 11, 2020, 11:14:31 AM »
Quite frankly, the medical community does not want things to change. They profit dramatically from the red-tape and hurdles.

Also, the MD's greatly overestimate the complexity of routine tests and the logistics of handling large numbers of samples and large sets of data. This in part stems from medical testing facilities often hiring poorly skilled technicians that don't care about their job.

There is no reason that even a small facility couldn't be running 5-10k tests a day. At that scale you could run these for $2 a sample, including labor for a highly skilled PhD level research technicians.

We haven't ran 10k tests nationwide yet.

We are going to have to agree to disagree on the feasibility of large scale testing and drive through facilities.

Ya, we providers LOVE the red tape and hoops we have to jump through to get things approved.  ::)

jesmu84

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #780 on: March 11, 2020, 11:15:10 AM »
I think the goal here would be get to summer, when infection rates for this type of thing naturally slow, and hopefully use that time to bolster our healthcare capacity to adjust to a new, covid-19 reality.  But I'm sure others are much more knowledgeable about this endgame than me.

We've been peppering this thread with potential "new post covid-19 panic" implications, and maybe here's another one - an increase in medical care capacity that honestly was probably increasingly necessary as the boomers aged anyway.  If we boost our medical care infrastructure in a way that sticks, and we adjust to the boomers' health care needs by increasing supply more, and just trying to manage demand less, that's probably a silver lining from this.

And how are you going to pay for that?

StillAWarrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #781 on: March 11, 2020, 11:45:04 AM »
Along the lines of other posts wondering about the lasting social/cultural impact of this, I find myself wondering if there will be significant changes in the use and/or acceptance of "virtual learning environments." Obviously, a lot of schools have been increasingly heading that direction, and this certainly accelerates that process. I wonder if this will lead to more wide-spread use even in the normal course of affairs as people become more accustomed to it.
Never wrestle with a pig.  You both get dirty, and the pig likes it.

RushmoreAcademy

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #782 on: March 11, 2020, 11:53:03 AM »
Along the lines of other posts wondering about the lasting social/cultural impact of this, I find myself wondering if there will be significant changes in the use and/or acceptance of "virtual learning environments." Obviously, a lot of schools have been increasingly heading that direction, and this certainly accelerates that process. I wonder if this will lead to more wide-spread use even in the normal course of affairs as people become more accustomed to it.

Certainly at the university level.  Anything below that is a long, long way off.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #783 on: March 11, 2020, 12:01:22 PM »
Chicago just cancelled the downtown, south side and northwest side st Patrick's day parades.

Connecticut postponed or cancelled all St. Patrick's Day parades two days ago.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #784 on: March 11, 2020, 12:02:48 PM »
Shouldn't India's totals be much higher then?

I've been wondering about this too?

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #785 on: March 11, 2020, 12:05:05 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

We're passed a point of containment and into mitigation to flatten the curve so to speak.  Government enforced quarantine's will become more common and widespread.  A significant portion of schools, if not most, will be excused.  An expansion of the air travel ban to infected areas(areas of Europe not already included) will most certainly happen. 

Its possible this was unavoidable in a free society, but not having adequate testing available when this popped up removed any doubt about being able to respond to this via a containment strategy.

10x more lethal than flu. Additionally, permanent lung damage seen in severe cases even where they recover. So...not good, and not comparable to the flu really.  Take care of yourselves, folks.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

Benny B

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #786 on: March 11, 2020, 12:12:50 PM »
Ya, we providers LOVE the red tape and hoops we have to jump through to get things approved.  ::)

As an actual provider, of course not.  But I'm sure your c-suite absolutely does... it's a huge barrier to entry.

It's like how all the big banks publicly complained about Dodd-Frank while privately congratulating themselves knowing full well that the gov't all but eliminated the threat of new competition, thus paving the way to consolidation and record profits.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

ChuckyChip

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #787 on: March 11, 2020, 12:15:04 PM »
UW-Madison going online until at least April 10th.

forgetful

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #788 on: March 11, 2020, 12:46:37 PM »
Ya, we providers LOVE the red tape and hoops we have to jump through to get things approved.  ::)

For clarification sake, my statement there was not directed at your average provider. More so the medical testing, diagnostics, and Pharma communities that profit greatly from a monopoly on testing, and a high barrier of entry.

Shady providers in some disciplines, also do not want change, they profit greatly from kickbacks from testing labs. This was rampant in the pain management discipline for awhile. I do not believe this is widely spread in the provider market though, most as you note, hate the red tape.

mu03eng

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #789 on: March 11, 2020, 12:46:58 PM »
10x more lethal than flu. Additionally, permanent lung damage seen in severe cases even where they recover. So...not good, and not comparable to the flu really.  Take care of yourselves, folks.

This is an example of why data fluency is missing in most modern communication. Covid-19 is not definitely 10x more deadly than the flu. It could be but we don't have nearly enough underlying data to know. The numerator(# of deaths) is known but the denominator(# of infected) unknown/under reported. There are lots of indicators that people are contracting the virus and recovering without testing and/or medical intervention.

Look at it this way, there have been ~4000 deaths in ~a month(being very conservative) so at that rate the annual mortality is about 48,000 year whereas flu killed 80,000 last year(to be fair the average is around 60,000 annually). When you factor in this is a new virus in which we need to develop standard interventions and procedures, I have no doubt that covid-19 will kill more(probably a lot more) than the flu but we are reacting as if this is some sort of super bug or cataclysmic event. Maybe it will be but there is definitely not enough evidence to point that way yet. With sometime we will develop standard interventions that will lower the mortality rate. #TrustTheProcess

Bottom line, slow the infection curve and generally speaking if you get the virus you'll be fine, make sure to keep it to yourself if you can.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #790 on: March 11, 2020, 12:52:58 PM »
This is an example of why data fluency is missing in most modern communication. Covid-19 is not definitely 10x more deadly than the flu. It could be but we don't have nearly enough underlying data to know. The numerator(# of deaths) is known but the denominator(# of infected) unknown/under reported. There are lots of indicators that people are contracting the virus and recovering without testing and/or medical intervention.

Eng, I hear you on purity of data, etc. 

This wasn't some guy on social though.  He is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and is leading much of the communication for the government.  Long-time bureaucrat across multiple administrations.  He is trying to get folks to do something and making a point that people need to take this seriously.

warriorchick

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #791 on: March 11, 2020, 01:11:13 PM »
Connecticut postponed or cancelled all St. Patrick's Day parades two days ago.

Great idea.  Let's have everyone spend the entire day in completely packed bars instead.
Have some patience, FFS.

StillAWarrior

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #792 on: March 11, 2020, 01:11:49 PM »
This is an example of why data fluency is missing in most modern communication. Covid-19 is not definitely 10x more deadly than the flu. It could be but we don't have nearly enough underlying data to know. The numerator(# of deaths) is known but the denominator(# of infected) unknown/under reported. There are lots of indicators that people are contracting the virus and recovering without testing and/or medical intervention.

Look at it this way, there have been ~4000 deaths in ~a month(being very conservative) so at that rate the annual mortality is about 48,000 year whereas flu killed 80,000 last year(to be fair the average is around 60,000 annually). When you factor in this is a new virus in which we need to develop standard interventions and procedures, I have no doubt that covid-19 will kill more(probably a lot more) than the flu but we are reacting as if this is some sort of super bug or cataclysmic event. Maybe it will be but there is definitely not enough evidence to point that way yet. With sometime we will develop standard interventions that will lower the mortality rate. #TrustTheProcess

Bottom line, slow the infection curve and generally speaking if you get the virus you'll be fine, make sure to keep it to yourself if you can.

I've used the flu comparisons in the past, and I do now appreciate much more how COVID-19 is quite different from the flu in many ways. I understand why some people want to point out that it's an apples to oranges comparison and I agree that in some ways they are absolutely right. However, one of the first arguments many of them make is by comparing the mortality rates.  And, as others have been pointing out, the dearth of data creates some issues. When calculating the death rate for the flu, they model the number of people that they believe had the flu to calculate the rate. They do this because many people don't get tested/confirmed. Obviously, this lowers the death rate considerably from what it would be if they only used confirmed cases. Yet with COVID-19, most data seems to be calculating the death rate using confirmed cases. On the one hand, people are saying, "it's far more widespread than anyone realizes...there aren't enough tests" (note: I'm not disagreeing with either of those propositions), but on the other hand, they're calculating the death rate on the confirmed cases. This raises the rate.

I'm not intending to minimize this. I've come to agree that it is very serious and should be regarded as such. I also agree that it is more lethal than the flu. But it's pretty clear that both "sides" are trying to make their cases based upon pretty incomplete and flawed data.
Never wrestle with a pig.  You both get dirty, and the pig likes it.

Warrior2008

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #793 on: March 11, 2020, 01:15:11 PM »
This is an example of why data fluency is missing in most modern communication. Covid-19 is not definitely 10x more deadly than the flu. It could be but we don't have nearly enough underlying data to know. The numerator(# of deaths) is known but the denominator(# of infected) unknown/under reported. There are lots of indicators that people are contracting the virus and recovering without testing and/or medical intervention.

Look at it this way, there have been ~4000 deaths in ~a month(being very conservative) so at that rate the annual mortality is about 48,000 year whereas flu killed 80,000 last year(to be fair the average is around 60,000 annually). When you factor in this is a new virus in which we need to develop standard interventions and procedures, I have no doubt that covid-19 will kill more(probably a lot more) than the flu but we are reacting as if this is some sort of super bug or cataclysmic event. Maybe it will be but there is definitely not enough evidence to point that way yet. With sometime we will develop standard interventions that will lower the mortality rate. #TrustTheProcess

Bottom line, slow the infection curve and generally speaking if you get the virus you'll be fine, make sure to keep it to yourself if you can.

I think we can both agree that the data regarding the annual flu isn't exact science either.  The CDC estimates the number of Americans who contract the flu and they also estimate the number of flu hospitalizations and deaths.  What Dr. Fauci was estimating was the relative danger between covid-19 and the flu based on his clinical judgment using the data that is known(confirmed covid-19 deaths).  And given that he is the foremost opinion in this country regarding infectious diseases, if he says its 10x more deadly than the flu, at the very least you have to respect his judgment.

Coleman

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #794 on: March 11, 2020, 01:26:41 PM »
UW-Madison going online until at least April 10th.

UW-Madison, the University of Phoenix of the Midwest

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #795 on: March 11, 2020, 01:29:14 PM »
Great idea.  Let's have everyone spend the entire day in completely packed bars instead.

Chick,
Funny you say that.  New Haven Register front page today says that the downtown bars will continue to hold their St. Patrick's Day Parade specials despite no parade.



St. Patrick’s Day parade is off, but parties are on
Drum corps depend on events for revenue
By Ed Stannard

Arnold Gold / Hearst Connecticut Media
A leprechaun in a pot of gold was painted on the front window of Shake Shack on Chapel Street in New Haven on Tuesday. The New Haven St. Patrick’s Day Parade, which would have traveled past this location, has been postponed.

Pat Williams, general manager of Elm City Social, at the restaurant on College Street. The restaurant plans St. Patrick’s Day celebrations, but the parade was postponed.

NEW HAVEN — The Stony Creek Fife & Drum Corps won’t be marching down Chapel Street on Sunday playing “You’re a Grand Old Flag,” but you can still get corned beef poutine at Rudy’s.

The indefinite postponement of the Greater New Haven St. Patrick’s Day parade, out of concern that COVID-19, or corona-virus, may be spread among the thousands lining the parade route, won’t stop the bars and restaurants from offering their versions of Irish-American fare.

At Rudy’s on Chapel and Howe streets that includes gravy fries covered with melted cheese and corned beef. Put corned beef on anything to make it a certifiable American St. Patrick’s Day meal.

“We’re going to stay open. We feel like it’s still going to be a fun day,” said Lange King, a bartender at Rudy’s, who said the beer will begin to flow at 10 a.m. Sunday, with food available at 10:30. There will be giveaways and T-shirts, too.

“It seems like people are still excited to be out and about,” King said, though she expects the bar crowd to be more family-oriented than it might have been with the parade in full swing.

This is America, where, if poutine isn’t your thing, Rudy’s will offer corned beef reuben quesadillas and corned beef hash tacos, mashing flavors and cultures.

At Elm City Social on College Street, just off Chapel, the holiday began on Monday, with their Pub Up. General manager Pat Williams said the bar will become an Irish pub until the big day itself, with Irish whiskey tastings and a class in “how to pour a proper pint” of Guinness stout.

“It’s obviously disappointing; it’s a big day for us, but obviously public health is more important than the festivities,” Williams said about the lack of a parade. “We’re not really concerned. The people that are going out for drinks are still coming out to the bars.”

Irish breakfast is being served all day, as are corned beef sliders. On Monday, Williams will borrow Liam Doherty-Nicholson of the Trinity Bar & Restaurant on Orange Street to be guest bartender.

While the bars are hoping to attract would-be parade-goers, the musical groups that count on parades to raise money can only hope New Haven’s parade will be rescheduled for a free day on their schedule.

“We’re a not-for-profit and the parade moneys go into our treasury, so we’ll have to make it up in some fashion,” said Joe Mooney of the Stony Creek Fife & Drum Corps in Branford.

“While it’s unfortunate, as we were looking forward to that great parade … we appreciate their concern and respect what their decision is,” he said. “I’ve been marching in that parade since I was a youngster in the early ’60s,” he said.

Mooney wouldn’t say how much the parade committee pays for the group to march, but the coronavirus definitely will hurt. “The Hartford parade is canceled, and Holyoke is uncertain,” Mooney said. The Milford parade organizers have yet to say whether that city’s parade will take place Saturday.

“We probably march 25 to 30 times a year,” he said.

Dave Bradley of Oxford, director of the Seymour-based Connecticut Alumni Drum and Bugle Corps, said there are no membership fees to join the unit, so “all the revenues we take off the street” pays for instructors, uniforms and instruments. But he said losing one date won’t hurt the group too much.

He said once the parade date is rescheduled, “if we’re available, we can march. The only other thing we run into is if we’re under contract with somebody else.”

Peter Burns of Milford, who said he marched in the first St. Patrick’s Day parade of modern times, which marched down Whalley Avenue in 1956, has been a judge for about 35 years.

“I’ve always been involved. I haven’t missed a parade,” he said.

“I feel terrible for the parade committee,” Burns said. “They work so hard, plus they look forward to this … and they do a wonderful job. And then to have the rug pulled out from them, it’s heartbreaking.”

Grand Marshal Seamus Bohan, like grand marshals before him, including his late father, Michael Bohan, worked his way up through the ranks of the committee, and now must wait to see when the parade will be rescheduled. Bohan said Tuesday he was disappointed the parade would be rescheduled but declined to say more.

Burns said he and fellow judge Bill Brennan look for uniformity, musical talent and proper respect for the American flag as the units pass by the judging stand.

“During that 30-yard pass-by you have to look like you’re in a parade, not waving to your friends at a football game, waving to the crowd,” he said. While both the American and Irish flags must be treated with respect, “the American flag is always to the right. There’s nothing to the right of it, and there’s always a weapon to protect it,” he said. That “weapon” can be a sidearm, rifle, saber or even a fire horn, Burns said.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #796 on: March 11, 2020, 01:32:57 PM »
Another parade tie-in thing.  I saw this graph from 1918 Spanish flu cases where St. Louis cancelled a parade and Philadelphia didn't.

mu03eng

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #797 on: March 11, 2020, 01:35:59 PM »
I am in no way questioning the experts and I have no reason to doubt Dr Fauci but we also need to understand both the source of that reference(in terms of possible accuracy) and intent of using that number. This is literally a scare number(10x) it is meant to drive a call to action and get people to pay attention as opposed to using the "real" number of 1% mortality rate. 1% sounds small and in the grand scheme of virology it is small but that doesn't drive action. So people are going to cling to 10x but context is important
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #798 on: March 11, 2020, 01:36:38 PM »
sorry, dupe post
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 01:41:59 PM by TSmith34 »
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")
« Reply #799 on: March 11, 2020, 01:37:49 PM »
Eng, I hear you on purity of data, etc. 

This wasn't some guy on social though.  He is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and is leading much of the communication for the government.  Long-time bureaucrat across multiple administrations.  He is trying to get folks to do something and making a point that people need to take this seriously.

Exactly, this was not me looking at the data and not knowing how to properly interpret it, this was the expert on infectious diseases.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.