COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[rocky_warrior]

The 6 ft number is meaningless.

As you went on to state - it's not meaningless at all - it's just somewhat arbitrary.  Though for folks passing each other, not breathing heavily, and not stopping, it should be a relatively safe distance - even without PPE.

[forgetful]

As you went on to state - it's not meaningless at all - it's just somewhat arbitrary.  Though for folks passing each other, not breathing heavily, and not stopping, it should be a relatively safe distance - even without PPE.

You are right. I honestly meant arbitrary. My mistake. I am hereby banned from beef and cheddars for 48 hours. Mea culpa.

[StillAWarrior]

There have been a number of studies on this. The 6 ft number is meaningless. Droplets from a cough can spread up to 30 feet.

6 ft is sufficient for droplets released during normal talking/eating. But if you are running or biking, it has been shown that you need to provide 30 feet running (if you are behind them in the slip stream) or 30 m biking. If you actually just shift to the side a bit before those distances you are then somewhat safe.

Another study showed along the coasts/beaches, that have significant wind, the distances need to be substantially larger.

Not sure that people actually saw those studies and are acting accordingly, or are simply trying to be over cautious/over polite.

I really would like to see those studies and what they say. I would think that if you were 25 feet behind someone running (or 25 meters behind someone on a bike) outdoors and shifted to the side a bit, you would be much better off than "somewhat safe."  As I said above, I don't doubt that it is possible to be infected by a virus in those situations, but the odds would be astronomical.  I'd bet heavily that the odds of being infected outdoors at a distance of 25 feet (running) or 25 meters (biking) are far, far lower than the ubiquitous six feet (which rocky correctly characterized as "relatively safe").  Honestly, I'd be surprised if the risk in those circumstances isn't essentially negligible.  Frankly, if it's not we're all doomed.

[forgetful]

I really would like to see those studies and what they say. I would think that if you were 25 feet behind someone running (or 25 meters behind someone on a bike) outdoors and shifted to the side a bit, you would be much better off than "somewhat safe."  As I said above, I don't doubt that it is possible to be infected by a virus in those situations, but the odds would be astronomical.  I'd bet heavily that the odds of being infected outdoors at a distance of 25 feet (running) or 25 meters (biking) is far, far safer than the oft-cited six feet (which rocky correctly characterized as "relatively safe").  Honestly, I'd be surprised if the risk in those circumstances isn't essentially negligible.  Frankly, if it's not we're all doomed.

I might have to increase my self ban on beef and cheddars to 96 hours. I was not being precise in my language, I also mis-remembered some of the distances. Here is the link to the paper.

http://www.urbanphysics.net/Social%20Distancing%20v20_White_Paper.pdf

and the related news article.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-social-distancing-walking-running-cyclists-advice-a9457431.html

and a NYtimes article (which may not have converted from metric correctly).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/well/move/running-social-distancing.html

The slip stream distances are 4 m for walking, 10 m for running, 20 m for biking.

There exact language is 2 m is "very effective" indoors or standing still for "exhaled droplets." That is different than coughed droplets in my mind.

I will do my best to be more precise/accurate with language moving forward.

[StillAWarrior]

I might have to increase my self ban on beef and cheddars to 96 hours. I was not being precise in my language, I also mis-remembered some of the distances. Here is the link to the paper.

http://www.urbanphysics.net/Social%20Distancing%20v20_White_Paper.pdf

and the related news article.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-social-distancing-walking-running-cyclists-advice-a9457431.html

and a NYtimes article (which may not have converted from metric correctly).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/well/move/running-social-distancing.html

The slip stream distances are 4 m for walking, 10 m for running, 20 m for biking.

There exact language is 2 m is "very effective" indoors or standing still for "exhaled droplets." That is different than coughed droplets in my mind.

I will do my best to be more precise/accurate with language moving forward.

Thank you for the links and your candor.  It's interesting research.

And this quote from the article you linked gets to my non-scientific gut reaction to this:  "Dr Bill Hanage, associate professor at Harvard's Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, told The Independent that the study was 'not really useful to epidemiologists' as 'the amount of transmission from this route even if it is possible will be dwarfed by that from others.'"

[GooooMarquette]

Hey someone woke up the CDC.....and it's frightening!

https://wapo.st/2Vsvu5G

I can't read the article because it's behind a paywall.

Does the head of CDC apologize for horribly botching their initial attempts to make test kits, and acknowledge that this wouldn't be nearly as bad if they had gotten their sh!t together sooner?

Edit: Is WaPo the only major newspaper that still has its COVID stories behind a paywall? Both NYT and WSJ have been allowing access for quite a while.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I can't read the article because it's behind a paywall.

Does the head of CDC apologize for horribly botching their initial attempts to make test kits, and acknowledge that this wouldn't be nearly as bad if they had gotten their sh!t together sooner?

Edit: Is WaPo the only major newspaper that still has its COVID stories behind a paywall? Both NYT and WSJ have been allowing access for quite a while.

More bucks for Bezos, aina.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I can't read the article because it's behind a paywall.

Does the head of CDC apologize for horribly botching their initial attempts to make test kits, and acknowledge that this wouldn't be nearly as bad if they had gotten their sh!t together sooner?

Edit: Is WaPo the only major newspaper that still has its COVID stories behind a paywall? Both NYT and WSJ have been allowing access for quite a while.

I subscribe and thought the corona stuff was available.  Here is an alternate link

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-secondwave-cdcdirector/

Essence of article- Robert Redfield CDC:
- 2nd wave definitely worse because it will be coupled with flu season
- CDC having 500 employees help at the state level - hiring 650 more
- Need many more so Evaluating using census workers, peace corps, americorps to do contact tracing
- Former CDC head tom frieden thinks we need 300k contact tracers
- Get your flu shot

[injuryBug]

Just watched outbreak with my kids and I know when i first saw it when it first came out I thought now way in hell that could ever happen.  I guess I was wrong

[Lennys Tap]

Trump says he will issue an executive order suspending immigration.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/us/coronavirus-live-news.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

He is so confident that we have this solved that he calls to "liberate" states ASAP, but so concerned about the spread that he suspends immigration. Yeah - vilifying the "others" is gonna solve this....

Polls overwhelmingly supporting temporary immigration ban (USA Today 79% approve, 11% disapprove). Vilifying the "others" evidently popular with Republicans, Democrats and Independents.

[tower912]

Good for you, finding something to celebrate.   Happy for you.


Does this include the essential workers at the bottom of the food supply chain?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Polls overwhelmingly supporting temporary immigration ban (USA Today 79% approve, 11% disapprove). Vilifying the "others" evidently popular with Republicans, Democrats and Independents.

I don't disagree but what would you say the most impactful thing the govt could enact given the current environment?

IMO there are things higher in the list, but curious if I am undervaluing this decision. 

[forgetful]

Good for you, finding something to celebrate.   Happy for you.


Does this include the essential workers at the bottom of the food supply chain?

Trump explicitly said the immigration ban will not affect migrant workers for agriculture. He didn't explicitly comment on it, but it likely also won't affect migrant workers for hotel chains.

[Lennys Tap]

Good for you, finding something to celebrate.   Happy for you.


Does this include the essential workers at the bottom of the food supply chain?

I'm not celebrating. Other than examples of individual heroism I see nothing to celebrate.

Including knee jerk ad hominem attacks. Good to see there's overwhelming agreement.

[GooooMarquette]

Polls overwhelmingly supporting temporary immigration ban (USA Today 79% approve, 11% disapprove). Vilifying the "others" evidently popular with Republicans, Democrats and Independents.

It's amazing what fear can do to rationality.

[Lennys Tap]

I don't disagree but what would you say the most impactful thing the govt could enact given the current environment?

IMO there are things higher in the list, but curious if I am undervaluing this decision.

I think you're right. This probably makes us a little safer and gives our workers first shot when we reopen, but it's by no means a game changer. But it's not a racist policy meant to vilify "others", either.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I think you're right. This probably makes us a little safer and gives our workers first shot when we reopen, but it's by no means a game changer. But it's not a racist policy meant to vilify "others", either.

Yes but it plays into forces both for and against "racist others".   So like grabbing the third rail.

So why not testing tracing and science? Or other Policies that make a bigger difference?

[Lennys Tap]

It's amazing what fear can do to rationality.

Hatred, too.

[GooooMarquette]

Hatred, too.

Yes, I will agree with you on that - fear stokes hatred as well.

Beginning to look like we agree on a few things after all.

[Jockey]

Polls overwhelmingly supporting temporary immigration ban (USA Today 79% approve, 11% disapprove). Vilifying the "others" evidently popular with Republicans, Democrats and Independents.

What is even the purpose of the ban? You said it makes us a little safer. How, exactly?

I could understand if other countries want to ban all Americans. We are the most infected country in the world. We are the danger.

[Jockey]

"I don't take responsibility at all".

On Sunday in another attempt to blame Obama, Trump said, "We took, ah, they had tests that were no good, they had, all the stuff was no good. It came from somewhere, so whoever came up with it."

Just curious how Obama's team could have developed a test for a virus that was not to occur until 3 years after he left office.

[forgetful]

"I don't take responsibility at all".

On Sunday in another attempt to blame Obama, Trump said, "We took, ah, they had tests that were no good, they had, all the stuff was no good. It came from somewhere, so whoever came up with it."

Just curious how Obama's team could have developed a test for a virus that was not to occur until 3 years after he left office.

Maybe Trump thought flu tests form the Obama regime would work, because this was just another flu?

Maybe that was part of the problem, he was using flu tests, and they didn't work.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Finding first deaths earlier than previously thought.  Also in Santa Clara.  The area that had the anti-body study done.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/22/death-coronavirus-first-california/

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Disinformation by foreign actors.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/politics/coronavirus-china-disinformation.html

[tower912]

Hatred, too.

Completely agree that fear and hatred lead to irrational decisions.    Have been saying versions of that for years.