COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[jesmu84]

https://twitter.com/amateuradam/status/1236733713129639940?s=19

[mu03eng]

https://twitter.com/amateuradam/status/1236733713129639940?s=19

Social patterns and population concentration are totally different between continental Europe and the US. The north eastern corridor might see the type of Italian growth factor but I think population density is totally different within the US which will naturally act to slow the spread. The overall concern of Coronavirus is not that the virus is in of itself a death sentance....it's that it spreads faster than the local healthcare infrastructure can support. If the population "saturation" rate is like 3 or 4 weeks versus the 14 weeks that you've seen in Italy or China this is an aggressive flu versus some sort of culling.

[Jockey]

What's with the TP hoarding anyway?  Is it because people think that there's a likelihood of self quarantine and you won't get to the store to purchase TP?  Because I don't see anything in the stated symptoms that would increase the need to use TP, like diarrhea.

If the hoarding gets bad enough, can't we just go shoot the people who have stuff and take it for ourselves?

Works in the movies!

[mu03eng]

If the hoarding gets bad enough, can't we just go shoot the people who have stuff and take it for ourselves?

Works in the movies!

I'm working on my barbwire bat as we speak....

[cheebs09]

DC priest is confirmed with Covid-19, distributed communion over the last two weeks to at least 500 people.....I think we can probably close the book on containment.

Time to go find a Typhoid Mary/Marty to hang out with to get the contagion over and done with. Benny, you find a source for yourself yet?

I'm a little surprised the Blood of Christ at mass. I figure that's going to stop pretty soon.

[Sir Lawrence]

I'm a little surprised the Blood of Christ at mass. I figure that's going to stop pretty soon.

Green Bay Diocese put a halt to wine distribution and hand shaking during the "kiss of peace" exchange over the weekend for Saturday and Sunday liturgies.  I guess the Milwaukee Archdiocese is leaving the wine/blood of Christ distribution up to the parish pastor. 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I'm a little surprised the Blood of Christ at mass. I figure that's going to stop pretty soon.

None of the churches in Connecticut do the wine at mass.  I've never seen here like forever.

[rocket surgeon]

Semi-sarcastic theory.....how surprised would you be if this whole Covid-19 was a Yale sociology thought experiment gone awry. Like it's all a social experiment on herd mentality and the fatalistic state of global media? I'd be around like 10% surprised at this point.

  i'd stop my donations immediately

[MUBurrow]

What's with the TP hoarding anyway?  Is it because people think that there's a likelihood of self quarantine and you won't get to the store to purchase TP?  Because I don't see anything in the stated symptoms that would increase the need to use TP, like diarrhea.

I thought this thread was cool on the TP hoarding - https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1234993431375536128

Basically, the behavior is the transition from a fear that some event (covid-19) will cause a shortage, which is irrational, to the fear that everyone else has that fear and will therefore cause a shortage, which is actually rational.

[The Sultan]

Well this is depressing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

[Coleman]

I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.

[GooooMarquette]

I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.

If this gets as widespread as in Italy and lasts for more than just a few weeks, I suspect the answer to all three is YES.

[jesmu84]

I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.

Polling for 2 and 3 shows public opinion support already, prior to this virus.

However, IMO, the fact that we might need a pandemic illness to force political action on 2 and 3 is sad.

[mu_hilltopper]

Honestly, I don't see COVID19 changing the political landscape beyond a few percentage points because voters are so tribal now.

Yes, close elections can be flipped.   But on policy (universal health care, sick leave, etc) you need a larger sea change of politicians (and media resistance.)

[shoothoops]

I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.

Hurricane Maria.

[Galway Eagle]

Doubtful on universal healthcare but could see universal basic healthcare? Idk what that would entail maybe tests and vaccines? But IMO it's doubtful anything beyond that gets added.

[Benny B]

I'm working on my barbwire bat as we speak....

Meh.  Board with a nail seems to work just fine.

[MUBurrow]

Honestly, I don't see COVID19 changing the political landscape beyond a few percentage points because voters are so tribal now.

Yes, close elections can be flipped.   But on policy (universal health care, sick leave, etc) you need a larger sea change of politicians (and media resistance.)

I agree with this.  There are no consensus answers for "what" is even happening anymore, let alone "why" something is happening.  And without drawing that causation, people just aren't going to swing on these big issues.

A (only slightly) less political outcome I'm worried about is if the institutions at play get their arms around this thing, and it reinforces the "see this was never a big deal" perspective.  That would be an example where the bureaucracy works effectively, but because the spread doesn't get worse, people attribute the consequences to it never being a big deal in the first place and we continue to see those institutions get kneecapped.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Honestly, I don't see COVID19 changing the political landscape beyond a few percentage points because voters are so tribal now.

Yes, close elections can be flipped.   But on policy (universal health care, sick leave, etc) you need a larger sea change of politicians (and media resistance.)

This is pretty much how I see it as well, although a few percentage points is more than enough to decide an election.

[mu03eng]

I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.

I think the political frame-up is probably the wrong way to look at it, not that the politics of it shouldn't be analyzed but politics is about the retention or acquisition of power so where you/your party falls on a crisis like this is all about whether you are the former or the later. If you reframe your questions as cultural in nature, I think it's very interesting.

One side note, as to the universal healthcare...it is an interesting by-product of the virus itself that those who actually have universal access(medicare/medicaid) are the ones really impacted by this. So in that regard, I don't think it actually moves the needle on it though I think if you are pro-universal healthcare you would certainly frame it up that way politically.

1. Absolutely it could, but it's a trigger mechanism for cultural change. Between the virus and the financial impact to the populace it is natural that we would culturally desire a change of leadership.

2. Does this change our appetite for healthcare spending and/or systemic change of the delivery model? Ultimately I don't see it changing our views on healthcare simply because I don't think the system will "fail" here.

3. Does this change how we view tele-commuting and what do we do/invest in for those who can't tele-commute? Does this drive further automation? I think we get a lot more automation but it seems like the virus has limited impact on those with little to no health coverage so I'd question (so far) what appetite would be changed for supporting the less fortunate more than is already done.

[Warrior2008]

I know we aren't supposed to get political, but these are questions floating around in my head (without any thought on where I land on the answers):

1. Could this sink Trump? Could it be his Hurricane Katrina?

2. Does this change the political calculus for universal healthcare? If the spread is worse because people can't afford to see a doctor, does that change public opinion?

3. Does this change the political calculus for sick leave? If people can't afford to stay home from work, and spread the virus, does that change public opinion?

I don't have an opinion (yet) on any of these, one way or the other. But I have been thinking about them.

1. Yes, not having enough tests while downplaying the severity didn't help.
2. No. Italy has a universal healthcare model that the WHO considers one of the best in the world and they had to quarantine a third of their country because by many accounts their healthcare system was on the verge of collapse.  So by having one doesn't necessarily mean you are better prepared to deal with any kind of healthcare emergency.
3. I think yes, but want to reserve judgment. 

[jesmu84]

I agree with this.  There are no consensus answers for "what" is even happening anymore, let alone "why" something is happening.  And without drawing that causation, people just aren't going to swing on these big issues.

A (only slightly) less political outcome I'm worried about is if the institutions at play get their arms around this thing, and it reinforces the "see this was never a big deal" perspective.  That would be an example where the bureaucracy works effectively, but because the spread doesn't get worse, people attribute the consequences to it never being a big deal in the first place and we continue to see those institutions get kneecapped.

Starve the beast...."See? We told you those organizations were ineffectual."

[Warrior2008]

Well this is depressing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

That is and so is this one.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/italy-coronavirus-covid19-west-europe-future/607660/

There are literally not going to be enough beds to put sick patients in if the current rate continues, never mind all of the other regular hospitalizations and ICU traffic that comes in.  Will they transport infected patients to hospitals elsewhere throughout the country or will that only seed the spread of the virus?  Simply put, there are no easy answers here.

[SERocks]

I have a kid who lives in San Bernardino.  He texted me last  night and asked if we had hand sanitizer.  I said of course we do.  Apparently they are all out of it out there and he wanted me to buy a bunch and ship it to him so he could sell it at a profit.  I went to Walgreens at lunch and they are completely out...cannot keep it in stock.  I had no idea things were nutty around here too.  It is tax season so I don't get out much, but really. I thought SE WI was bit calmer than that.....

[Benny B]

I have a kid who lives in San Bernardino.  He texted me last  night and asked if we had hand sanitizer.  I said of course we do.  Apparently they are all out of it out there and he wanted me to buy a bunch and ship it to him so he could sell it at a profit.  I went to Walgreens at lunch and they are completely out...cannot keep it in stock.  I had no idea things were nutty around here too.  It is tax season so I don't get out much, but really. I thought SE WI was bit calmer than that.....

Most everywhere in SE-WI/NE-IL has been sold out of sanitizer and N95 masks for about two weeks.

Now it's starting to become difficult to find 100% aloe vera gel (to make your own sanitizer).


DIY tip: Menards sells "Splash" brand gas line antifreeze in two versions... if you get the red bottle that says "PX-99" on it, it's (nominally) 100% isopropyl alcohol, perfect for home-made sanitizer (just don't drink it).  And it's only $1.50/bottle (for now, any way).