COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Coleman]

IMHO, the best way to get out of this economically might be a government-run "New Deal" type of program. Find the people who have had the illness (either through positive test and then recovery, or by presence of antibodies after an asymptomatic infection), and then put any who are unemployed to work rebuilding our roads and bridges, maybe building solar and wind facilities, etc. Obviously that would take larger scale testing and then training for new jobs, but that way, we fix infrastructure issues we have been facing for years, get people back to work, and hopefully rebuild the economy.

Trump was talking about the next round of stimulus being infrastructure focused. I think you're on the money .

[rocket surgeon]

would we be testing for if they HAVE it as in the viral particles or if they HAD it, as in the antibodies formed against it? or both?

[MUBurrow]

Maybe the reality is that most people have to get the virus, fight through and we hope they win. It's just a healthcare capacity issue. Some get it early, we stall (like in MN's case)... see what happens... and go from there.

This is it for me too, JB. I think this is going to be a balance between a rapid healthcare evolution and how long we as a society can and are willing to buy time and pay for that.  I'd love to hear from healthcare experts - both providers and administration/business folks - because I'm neither, but it seems like the current messaging around "the more we practice distancing, the sooner this will be over" isn't doing anyone any favors because it isn't true.  It will save people's lives, and that should be the PR focus.  But the only thing that will end distancing is a combination of healthcare capacity that reduces preventable covid deaths while not sacrificing capacity for non-covid care and immunity through some comibination of a vaccine, antibody tests, and people having survived the illness.*

The * for me, is that when all this started, I thought there was a lot of talk about how coronaviruses are like the cold, and that reinfection is possible and immunity can last only weeks or months, depending on the exact virus. I've done some honest to god searching for more info on that and haven't come up with anything.  If that's true, I guess the hope is that a vaccine might not prevent cases but would make them less severe? Idk maybe we're just screwed then.

[WarriorDad]

FTFY.
Also, the issue never was that "They would do no good," but rather there was (and is) a shortage of masks and the experts wanted them on the faces of those who needed them most.

Disagree.  Last month articles said they were ineffective.  CDC said of little use.  NY Times opinion piece on motives from a few days ago. Another Tmes article today on what was said then and what is said now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html

[GooooMarquette]

would we be testing for if they HAVE it as in the viral particles or if they HAD it, as in the antibodies formed against it? or both?

Both. Current testing is for the active virus, but Mayo Clinic and the U of MN are working on a test for antibodies. I'm fairly certain other institutions are working on such tests as well.

https://www.startribune.com/u-mayo-ready-covid-19-antibody-tests-in-minnesota/569233992/

[forgetful]

Disagree.  Last month articles said they were ineffective.  CDC said of little use.  NY Times opinion piece on motives from a few days ago. Another Tmes article today on what was said then and what is said now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html

The CDC always know their "advisement" on it being of little use or counterproductive was false. Some heads of hospitals were told exactly this when they asked about the guidance.

At least internally, the CDC was always admitting that this "advisement" was to try and make sure those on the front-lines had PPE. I believe I posted this exact truth over a month ago when the initial "advisement" came out.

So, bottom line, the CDC lies, to make sure that the nurses and doctor's weren't dying due to a lack of PPE. They still were having to work without PPE in some cases.

[Silent Verbal]

A good friend of mine has a past life as a public health professional.  She thinks we will gradually see bans lifted starting in May (restaurants open, smaller events allowed) running through to September when large crowds will be allowed.

Her theory is that we have way more assymptomatic and mildly symptomatic carriers than we are measuring, meaning we will gain a degree of herd immunity over the summer.

This seems pretty reasonable.  I think that by May, most restaurants/bars, large retail stores, movie theaters, theme parks, etc will begin experimenting with "limited capacity" for customers where people can attend while still respecting social distancing protocols.  As summer wears on and more people realize that it's okay to start going out again, those restrictions will gradually be relaxed.

By June 1, I'd expect most things besides massive gatherings like sporting events and concerts to be up and running again in some form.  I don't know if society will be able to put up with the current restrictions for much longer than that.

[WarriorDad]

The United States and South Korea had their first cases on the same day. The U.S. has had 3,138 deaths since, including 593 in the past 24 hours. South Korea has had 158.

US population much larger (7 times larger)
US territory immensely larger (99 times larger). Easier to control citizens and police compliance
Koreans have used masks for years and dealt with viral outbreaks more than US has in 100 years


The US has many flaws in this process with testing, but we would certainly be doing better than we have with a smaller footprint and population.  Those are advantages South Korea has that we do not.

[GooooMarquette]

Disagree.  Last month articles said they were ineffective.  CDC said of little use.  NY Times opinion piece on motives from a few days ago. Another Tmes article today on what was said then and what is said now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html

Regardless, the balance now seems to say that there would likely be some benefit from everyone wearing a mask. Greater benefit overall if you're an asymptomatic carrier, but still some benefit if you don't have the virus and are trying to prevent it.

IMHO, anyone who happens to have a mask should wear it. It you don't, but you have the ability to make one, do it and wear it. Just don't go out and buy a N-95 or surgical mask that should be in the heads of healthcare professionals or first responders.

[WarriorDad]

The CDC always know their "advisement" on it being of little use or counterproductive was false. Some heads of hospitals were told exactly this when they asked about the guidance.

At least internally, the CDC was always admitting that this "advisement" was to try and make sure those on the front-lines had PPE. I believe I posted this exact truth over a month ago when the initial "advisement" came out.

So, bottom line, the CDC lies, to make sure that the nurses and doctor's weren't dying due to a lack of PPE. They still were having to work without PPE in some cases.

That may be the intent and agree with the motive.  However it also did not stop countless articles and television coverage telling people they were ineffective when they could have helped.  This is another example of where the blame game can go on endlessly and leaders have to pick outcomes that not everyone will be comfortable with.

The one that bothers me the most are the tens of millions of N95 masks that were left in warehouses that expired.  California had 20 million under state control.  The Federal gov't millions in their warehouses.  Canada over 50 million. 

[forgetful]

That may be the intent and agree with the motive.  However it also did not stop countless articles and television coverage telling people they were ineffective when they could have helped.  This is another example of where the blame game can go on endlessly and leaders have to pick outcomes that not everyone will be comfortable with.

So you want to blame the media for reporting on what the CDC actually advised?

[Jay Bee]

We can't even figure out if wearing a mask is good, bad or awful.

We b screwed

#LastDays

[The Sultan]

That may be the intent and agree with the motive.  However it also did not stop countless articles and television coverage telling people they were ineffective when they could have helped.  This is another example of where the blame game can go on endlessly and leaders have to pick outcomes that not everyone will be comfortable with.

The one that bothers me the most are the tens of millions of N95 masks that were left in warehouses that expired.  California had 20 million under state control.  The Federal gov't millions in their warehouses.  Canada over 50 million. 

You worry way too much about the "blame game" versus making legitimate criticisms of how leaders have managed this. 

[GooooMarquette]

We can't even figure out if wearing a mask is good, bad or awful.

We b screwed

#LastDays

Good.

Be safe, JayBee

[Hards Alumni]

You worry way too much about the "blame game" versus making legitimate criticisms of how leaders have managed this.

What he is most interested in these days is creating an, "Everyone makes mistakes" narrative.

[Pakuni]

What he is most interested in these days is creating an, "Everyone makes mistakes" narrative.

This ... and creating some sort of false equivalency, so that the POTUS ignoring months of warnings and spreading falsehoods about the virus in public is just another of many whoopsies.

[shoothoops]

US population much larger (7 times larger)
US territory immensely larger (99 times larger). Easier to control citizens and police compliance
Koreans have used masks for years and dealt with viral outbreaks more than US has in 100 years


The US has many flaws in this process with testing, but we would certainly be doing better than we have with a smaller footprint and population.  Those are advantages South Korea has that we do not.

The U.S. would be doing better if the response was signficantly better. There was U.S. Intel on this in January.

[shoothoops]

Not a surprise...Wimbledon Tennis 2020 canceled today and rescheduled for 2021. (It runs late June through mid July)

[jesmu84]

This ... and creating some sort of false equivalency, so that the POTUS ignoring months of warnings and spreading falsehoods about the virus in public is just another of many whoopsies.

Someone else always used to make similar arguments and say things like "I can find 500 economists that say the opposite of your 500 economists...."

[forgetful]

Needs bigger sample sizes, and there are reasons to still be skeptical, but this is the first report with controls suggesting a mild benefit of hydroxychloroquine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-malaria.html?fbclid=IwAR1cUTmSA-Lt87S9lPoiD9-uRlu7gJlE69ReTEzaH0HCy-yKkqiFrQmVgCk

[Jockey]

Results out of Iceland, which is doing massive randomize testing, suggest 50% of infected are asymptomatic.

I think we might get herd immunity before a vaccine is available, like by fall.

Why are we assuming there will even be herd immunity?  Is there herd immunity for the cold or flu?

[shoothoops]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/30/coronavirus-drugs-hydroxychloroquin-chloroquine/

This is a good, detailed article regarding Chloroquine and Colchicine.

[Coleman]

Why are we assuming there will even be herd immunity?  Is there herd immunity for the cold or flu?

Because most indications thus far show immunity after infection.

[Pakuni]

Why are we assuming there will even be herd immunity?  Is there herd immunity for the cold or flu?

To the flu, yes.
A vaccine is basically a shortcut to herd immunity. It provides the immunity without the getting sick part. But if you do get sick with it once, you're probably not going to get it again or become a carrier for it.

[warriorchick]

To the flu, yes.
A vaccine is basically a shortcut to herd immunity. It provides the immunity without the getting sick part. But if you do get sick with it once, you're probably not going to get it again or become a carrier for it.

Also, there are many different versions of cold and flu viruses, and you have to develop immunity to each one.  That is why babies are always getting colds; they start out not having immunity to any of them.