COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Agreed. One of the difficult things about decision making is the 2nd guessing after the fact. One has to collect all the data and make the best decision for everyone at the time.

I fear that with this being an election year, individuals will make decisions based on what helps them in their next election most, and not what is the best long-term decision. I hope people on both sides of the aisle recognize some things are more important than the next election.

Look at all of the fools in Washington, you think that more than 1 or 2 are looking beyond their next election?

[forgetful]

Local hospitals near me are having problems with employees stealing masks, to take home or resell. They were already in short supply.

Also a great read on diagnosis problems, and a potential dangerous mix of people in Louisiana (one of the hardest hit states by population), ignoring the issue and partying on Bourbon Street.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_35531ff4-66d9-11ea-95b0-7797f71d169a.html?fbclid=IwAR2EUaMJ85ym-k6kejn5fwsGWu0WVai_StMkOXYtKW3oy-nZpcJPxERluP4

[skianth16]

Counter opinion to that written by an MU BUAD Alum:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-12/stock-markets-need-to-see-the-government-panic

Interesting point of view by a guy who clearly knows what he's talking about. Friday's reaction to the president's press conference confirms his point of view.

My worry would be that we would see stocks slip again with a widespread lockdown, because that would introduce additional uncertainties. And that uncertainty about the duration and impact of a lockdown would create another round of selling. I'm nowhere near as informed as Bianco on this, but that outcome seems logical/probable to me. I'm curious to see if he posts a follow-up to that piece now that we've seen the markets respond to the initial plans.

[warriorchick]

Your company seems pretty dumb to be looking to start interviews for a known retirement of an exec only 3 weeks before said retirement date.

These are second interviews, but yeah, the wheels turn a little slowly in our organization sometimes.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Interesting point of view by a guy who clearly knows what he's talking about. Friday's reaction to the president's press conference confirms his point of view.

My worry would be that we would see stocks slip again with a widespread lockdown, because that would introduce additional uncertainties. And that uncertainty about the duration and impact of a lockdown would create another round of selling. I'm nowhere near as informed as Bianco on this, but that outcome seems logical/probable to me. I'm curious to see if he posts a follow-up to that piece now that we've seen the markets respond to the initial plans.

I think peak uncertainty is not knowing the number of infections and watching Italy (so now). If we do things to contain and understand, the market can start to bet on what is the duration of the recession and what type of recovery occurs. 

So far the only places this has taken root and been contained either completely shuttered the economy (China-maybe Italy next) or went after a rigorous program to test and contain (South Korea).  So kind of inevitable that there will be an impact and why the market wants govt action on the virus and not just a bunch of stimulus. 

I'm not saying volatility will stop, but the only way demand returns is to contain the virus.

[pbiflyer]

Local hospitals near me are having problems with employees stealing masks, to take home or resell. They were already in short supply.

Also a great read on diagnosis problems, and a potential dangerous mix of people in Louisiana (one of the hardest hit states by population), ignoring the issue and partying on Bourbon Street.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_35531ff4-66d9-11ea-95b0-7797f71d169a.html?fbclid=IwAR2EUaMJ85ym-k6kejn5fwsGWu0WVai_StMkOXYtKW3oy-nZpcJPxERluP4

New Orleans Police Cleared Out Bourbon Street To Prevent The Spread Of The Coronavirus

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/claudiakoerner/new-orleans-police-bourbon-street-coronavirus-bars

[forgetful]

New Orleans Police Cleared Out Bourbon Street To Prevent The Spread Of The Coronavirus

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/claudiakoerner/new-orleans-police-bourbon-street-coronavirus-bars

Glad they did it eventually, but late on Saturday (before the police rolled in), Bourbon street was packed.

Orlean's parish had 65 active cases as it was, the delay in shutting down bars/bourbon street certainly was not going to help.

Also, worldwide we now have more cases in the rest of the world than China, and more active cases than those that have been resolved.

[Hards Alumni]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fj1owh/over_half_of_the_coronavirus_patients_in/

Welllllllllllllllll.... that's not good.

[GooooMarquette]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fj1owh/over_half_of_the_coronavirus_patients_in/

Welllllllllllllllll.... that's not good.

I read the same thing about France this morning.

The question I have - both for France and the Netherlands - is how many of these patients are in other "high risk" categories, like lung or heart disease, diabetes, etc.? If most are in higher risk categories, maybe it would be prudent to recommend more rigid self-quarantine for those individuals. But if large numbers of "low risk" patients are included, the only "solution" might be more draconian isolation for everyone....

[MU82]

My wife and I ventured to our local Costco this morning, shortly after it opened at 10 a.m.

I've never seen the parking lot more full. Not at Xmas time or any time. When we got to the entrance, an employee was spraying paper towels with some kind of disinfectant and handing a sheet to each person entering - they apparently were out of disinfectant sheets.

However, while it was packed inside, I was impressed with how orderly everything was. They even had toilet paper, milk, bread, plenty of veggies, meat, etc. Much better stocked than I expected.

We got everything on our list and a few other things too. Went to the self-checkout line and waited less than 5 minutes.

Also filled up the tank - $1.79.9/gal for unleaded regular.

I've heard other Costcos aren't as well-stocked and the experience was far slower, but our experience far exceeded expectations.

[forgetful]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fj1owh/over_half_of_the_coronavirus_patients_in/

Welllllllllllllllll.... that's not good.

Well two posts down, apparently Pornhub is offering free premium access to all Italians and donating profits, so at least there's that.

But more seriously, this isn't surprising, if this wasn't the case, Italy wouldn't have to be denying ICU treatments to those over 60. Most nations have reported similar statistics.

It's also not likely due to other "high-risk" categories. It's simply an aspect of the disease, it hits about 5% of people extremely hard. If you are old and/or have co-morbidities and are part of that 5% you likely die. If you are young and have access to an ICU and ventilator, you survive.

[rocky_warrior]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fj1owh/over_half_of_the_coronavirus_patients_in/

Welllllllllllllllll.... that's not good.

From that...

Main risk factor for obesity
The average age of all covid-19 ic patients in Lombardy, Italy, was 70 years, according to which 'the main risk factor for ic uptake is obesity'.

So... There goes eng's smoking theory

[Dr. Blackheart]

I understand, but if the UK is right, and people won't follow subsequent 2-3 week isolations, then the best bet may be to wait.

Also, what happens when a wave of patients start hitting hospitals, and they start rationing care to prioritize icu beds? I don't see people in the US handling that well, especially when you start to see wealthy/powerful people being treated differently. Get ready for death panels and special treatment, if the worst case scenarios hold up.

I'm not advocating one or the other, just highlighting how little we know, and the difficulty in making a decision.

The cruise ships will become hospitals for quarantine for less care patients

[pbiflyer]

Good explanation.

[Jockey]

New Orleans Police Cleared Out Bourbon Street To Prevent The Spread Of The Coronavirus

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/claudiakoerner/new-orleans-police-bourbon-street-coronavirus-bars

We had our fantasy baseball draft yesterday in Wisconsin and one of the guys owns a bar and lives in NO. He said while people are still going out, it isn't even anywhere close to the normal crowd sizes.

[jesmu84]

Illinois and Ohio closing bars and restaurants to dining-in patrons

I imagine this will become the norm in the next few days across the country

[GooooMarquette]

Bioethics classes worldwide are probably discussing the following (potential real-world) scenario:

Imagine you're a doc and have one ventilator available. You are notified of two incoming patients, both of whom need ventilatory support. They will arrive at about the same time. One is a previously healthy 80-year old, and the other is a previously healthy 40 year old. Neither has any known risk factors for covid-19 (except, of course, the mere fact that the 80-year old is 80 years old). Who gets the ventilator? First-come, first-served? More likely to survive (i.e., the 40-year old)?

An interesting twist:

*What if the 80-year old got there first and you weren't aware of the 40-year old, so you started prepping the patient for the ventilator and informed the family about it, but haven't yet put the patient on the ventilator...and then you learn about the 40-year old? Do you tell the 80-year old and family that the ventilator needs to be used on a patient more likely to benefit?

Another interesting twist:

*What if the 80-year old is on the ventilator but doing very poorly, and then the 40-year old arrives? Do you disconnect the 80-year old sooner than you otherwise would, in order to treat a patient you think you can save?

I sure as hell hope it doesn't get to this point....

[The Sultan]

Illinois and Ohio closing bars and restaurants to dining-in patrons

I imagine this will become the norm in the next few days across the country

With St. Patricks Day on Tuesday, they should announce this tomorrow.

[GooooMarquette]

Fed just cut interest rate by a full point in an attempt to avert economic collapse....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/business/economy/federal-reserve-coronavirus.html

[Dish]

This isn't intended to be political, but Illinois chugging forward with its primary on Tuesday seems foolish.

[GooooMarquette]

This isn't intended to be political, but Illinois chugging forward with its primary on Tuesday seems foolish.

Yep. We are telling people not to go anywhere where they expect a big crowd, so it's irresponsible to hold a very important event that ordinarily would (and should) attract a big crowd.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Bioethics classes worldwide are probably discussing the following (potential real-world) scenario:

Imagine you're a doc and have one ventilator available. You are notified of two incoming patients, both of whom need ventilatory support. They will arrive at about the same time. One is a previously healthy 80-year old, and the other is a previously healthy 40 year old. Neither has any known risk factors for covid-19 (except, of course, the mere fact that the 80-year old is 80 years old). Who gets the ventilator? First-come, first-served? More likely to survive (i.e., the 40-year old)?

An interesting twist:

*What if the 80-year old got there first and you weren't aware of the 40-year old, so you started prepping the patient for the ventilator and informed the family about it, but haven't yet put the patient on the ventilator...and then you learn about the 40-year old? Do you tell the 80-year old and family that the ventilator needs to be used on a patient more likely to benefit?

Another interesting twist:

*What if the 80-year old is on the ventilator but doing very poorly, and then the 40-year old arrives? Do you disconnect the 80-year old sooner than you otherwise would, in order to treat a patient you think you can save?

I sure as hell hope it doesn't get to this point....

From the reports out of Italy, they are facing dilemmas like this regularly.

[GooooMarquette]

From the reports out of Italy, they are facing dilemmas like this regularly.

I have just seen vague references to "shortages" of equipment and supplies, but I wouldn't be surprised if these are some of the scenarios they're referring to. If you've read anything more specific, I'd love to see it.

[forgetful]

I have just seen vague references to "shortages" of equipment and supplies, but I wouldn't be surprised if these are some of the scenarios they're referring to. If you've read anything more specific, I'd love to see it.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-hospitals-doctor-lockdown-quarantine-intensive-care-a9401186.html

See the link.

[Jockey]

This isn't intended to be political, but Illinois chugging forward with its primary on Tuesday seems foolish.

If this virus happened under any other president in history, it would be a no-brainer. But these are dire times.

Still, I'll be shocked if it isn't postponed by midday tomorrow.