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injuryBug

Quote from: RJax55 on March 17, 2020, 06:25:28 PM
I'm beginning to wonder the prevalence of asymptomatic cases of COVID-19.

I read an article back a few weeks ago interviewing Bruce Aylward from the WHO on China's COVID-19 response. He stated that the Chinese thought that asymptomatic cases were quite rare. However, we now have three instances of cases involving groups of people that were tested (whether sick or not), where individuals tested positive and were asymptomatic. Grand Princess (Japan), the Utah Jazz and now the Brooklyn Nets. Certainly a very small subset to look at, but each group had individuals that were asymptomatic COVID-19 cases.

Since no country is testing all citizens, there's really no way to figure out how many cases end up being asymptomatic. I'm starting to think it is a great deal higher than what the Chinese found.
I am sure that number is huge just like it is for every other virus

jesmu84

Quote from: RJax55 on March 17, 2020, 06:25:28 PM
I'm beginning to wonder the prevalence of asymptomatic cases of COVID-19.

I read an article back a few weeks ago interviewing Bruce Aylward from the WHO on China's COVID-19 response. He stated that the Chinese thought that asymptomatic cases were quite rare. However, we now have three instances of cases involving groups of people that were tested (whether sick or not), where individuals tested positive and were asymptomatic. Grand Princess (Japan), the Utah Jazz and now the Brooklyn Nets. Certainly a very small subset to look at, but each group had individuals that were asymptomatic COVID-19 cases.

Since no country is testing all citizens, there's really no way to figure out how many cases end up being asymptomatic. I'm starting to think it is a great deal higher than what the Chinese found.

Here's a question:

Why the unnatural carnal knowledge are tests being run on asymptomatic individuals who aren't high-risk or aren't in professions on the frontlines when we have a limited amount of tests right now?

Pakuni

Quote from: injuryBug on March 17, 2020, 06:24:30 PM
I get the slowing the spread but The majority of the herd is inside avoiding it.  So to me it will be worse once we all come out to play.  Warm temps have no impact.  I do not see an end until the vaccine comes out several months from now.

Where'd you get your medical degree and PhD in epidemiology?

GooooMarquette

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 17, 2020, 05:46:36 PM
By then there is a bit of herd immunity.  Once again, the idea is to slow the rate of infection.  We slow it to wait for the vaccine and to keep our health care system from being overrun.  Once we can control or slow the outbreak enough, we can go back to normal life.

Currently, there doesn't seem to be any evidence that people can become infected again once they have it.  Now, I'm hopeful that this is the case, and it is more like chicken pox... but we could get really unlucky with this and it could mutate and make our antibodies ineffective.  But that is something time will tell.


Very well stated. A LOT can be gained simply by slowing the rate of spread.

RJax55

Quote from: jesmu84 on March 17, 2020, 06:36:04 PM
Here's a question:

Why the unnatural carnal knowledge are tests being run on asymptomatic individuals who aren't high-risk or aren't in professions on the frontlines when we have a limited amount of tests right now?

C'mon, you know why. And, I don't disagree with you.

That said, figuring out why individuals are asymptomatic could be very important in fighting this virus.

reinko

Quote from: jesmu84 on March 17, 2020, 06:36:04 PM
Here's a question:

Why the unnatural carnal knowledge are tests being run on asymptomatic individuals who aren't high-risk or aren't in professions on the frontlines when we have a limited amount of tests right now?

The article states they went to private company and paid for them to be done.


jesmu84

Quote from: reinko on March 17, 2020, 06:46:33 PM
The article states they went to private company and paid for them to be done.

Fair enough. Hadn't read the article.

That said, it still seems like we should be prioritizing ALL TESTS during a time of pandemic/declared national emergency

GooooMarquette

Quote from: injuryBug on March 17, 2020, 06:24:30 PM
I get the slowing the spread but The majority of the herd is inside avoiding it.  So to me it will be worse once we all come out to play.  Warm temps have no impact.  I do not see an end until the vaccine comes out several months from now.

Herd immunity is only part of the reason for slowing the spread. As Hards mentioned, there is also the goal of spreading the cases so the healthcare system doesn't get overrun. And even though a vaccine may take several months, researchers are also actively looking at "off-label" uses of currently approved drugs, to see if they might mitigate the severity of the illness. I won't be surprised if we hear about some viable possibilities within a few weeks, if not sooner.

Hards Alumni

Quote from: RJax55 on March 17, 2020, 06:25:28 PM
I'm beginning to wonder the prevalence of asymptomatic cases of COVID-19.

I read an article back a few weeks ago interviewing Bruce Aylward from the WHO on China's COVID-19 response. He stated that the Chinese thought that asymptomatic cases were quite rare. However, we now have three instances of cases involving groups of people that were tested (whether sick or not), where individuals tested positive and were asymptomatic. Grand Princess (Japan), the Utah Jazz and now the Brooklyn Nets. Certainly a very small subset to look at, but each group had individuals that were asymptomatic COVID-19 cases.

Since no country is testing all citizens, there's really no way to figure out how many cases end up being asymptomatic. I'm starting to think it is a great deal higher than what the Chinese found.

Ha, its almost as if the Chinese government lies.

Hards Alumni

Quote from: reinko on March 17, 2020, 06:46:33 PM
The article states they went to private company and paid for them to be done.

C.R.E.A.M.


RJax55

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 17, 2020, 06:59:34 PM
Ha, its almost as if the Chinese government lies.

True, but the WHO seemed to support that claim. And, I know, the criticism of the WHO and China.

If asymptomatic cases are common, thats both a big positive and negative.

StillAWarrior

Gotta admit, I'm curious to see if everyone singing Fauci's praises and extolling his credibility will accept his claim that the problems with testing were not the President's or CDC's fault.
Hell, CNN called him "Trump's Coronavirus truth teller."
Never wrestle with a pig.  You both get dirty, and the pig likes it.

Hards Alumni

Quote from: RJax55 on March 17, 2020, 07:09:19 PM
True, but the WHO seemed to support that claim. And, I know, the criticism of the WHO and China.

If asymptomatic cases are common, thats both a big positive and negative.

Personally, I'd prefer all mild cases, but I don't have a genie and three wishes  ;D

GooooMarquette

Quote from: StillAWarrior on March 17, 2020, 07:21:48 PM
Gotta admit, I'm curious to see if everyone singing Fauci's praises and extolling his credibility will accept his claim that the problems with testing were not the President's or CDC's fault.
Hell, CNN called him "Trump's Coronavirus truth teller."

I view Fauci as similar to John Kelly. Kelly TRIED to push back and do the right things when he was Chief of Staff, but learned that he could only go so far to avoid the wrath of Trump. IMHO, Fauci is walking a similar tightrope to avoid getting fired and replaced by a Trump yes-man.

Fauci is far from perfect, but I believe he is trying to do the right thing.

Hards Alumni

Quote from: StillAWarrior on March 17, 2020, 07:21:48 PM
Gotta admit, I'm curious to see if everyone singing Fauci's praises and extolling his credibility will accept his claim that the problems with testing were not the President's or CDC's fault.
Hell, CNN called him "Trump's Coronavirus truth teller."

That is fair criticism, but that may be political nonsense that he has to buy into to remain on the job.  We've all seen our President's proclivity for firing people who say bad things about him.  Also, to me, blame is currently inconsequential, and if it strokes Trump's ego enough to keep Fauci around, I am okay with it.

I still will take issue with the CDC guidance that masks aren't necessary... because that is foolishness and they had an agenda when they made that claim.

StillAWarrior

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 17, 2020, 07:31:26 PM
That is fair criticism, but that may be political nonsense that he has to buy into to remain on the job.  We've all seen our President's proclivity for firing people who say bad things about him.  Also, to me, blame is currently inconsequential, and if it strokes Trump's ego enough to keep Fauci around, I am okay with it.

It absolutely may be. Or it may be 100% true and correct. I have no doubt that many people who thought he was the only trustworthy person on the team will discount him now.
Never wrestle with a pig.  You both get dirty, and the pig likes it.

Jockey

Anyone else notice how quickly the numbers are starting to rise on the Covid-19 dashboard?

GooooMarquette

Quote from: Jockey on March 17, 2020, 07:54:00 PM
Anyone else notice how quickly the numbers are starting to rise on the Covid-19 dashboard?

Yep. 😔

Bo Ryan's Massage Therapist

#1569
Dudes, The local ICUs are starting to get patients. I'm a primary care provider in Milwaukee.  It is only a matter of time before the state has our first of many deaths.  I've been testing multiple patients a day and we were told today by our organization/the state to stop.  We send our tests to the state lab and they can only handle 400 tests a day. They can't keep up.  The state says the infection is already widespread and there is no point in testing mild illness or outpatients. Right now we're only going to test inpatients and critically ill patients.  It seems if you are celebrity you can get a test too.

We are grossly under prepared for this as a country as we don't have adequate testing and there is lack of protective equipment. I'm supposed to wear an N 95 respirator mask but I don't have one.  I'm wearing a standard poorly fitted mask that doesn't offer great protection.  I have to wear the same damn gown every day for the same patients. Protocol is to change protective equipment after each patient but we just don't have the resources.  It's madness.

Don't let anyone tell you this isn't real. And it's definitely not just the flu. The flu doesn't kill 20% of patients hospitalized with it.  The flu doesn't permanently destroy your lungs like this. Stay safe my friends
"If a player leaves Marquette and doesn't have some of my blood in him, then I don't think I've done a good job."  Al McGuire

Jockey

Quote from: Bo Ryan's Massage Therapist on March 17, 2020, 08:04:11 PM
Dudes, The local ICUs are starting to get patients. I'm a primary care provider in Milwaukee.  It is only a matter of time before the state has our first of many deaths.  I've been testing multiple patients a day and we were told today by our organization/the state to stop.  We send our tests to the state lab and they can only handle 400 tests a day. They can't keep up.  The state says the infection is already widespread and there is no point in testing mild illness or outpatients. Right now we're only going to test inpatients and critically ill patients.  It seems if you are celebrity you can get a test too.  We are grossly under prepared for this as a country as we don't have adequate testing and there is lack of protective equipment. I'm supposed to wear an N 95 respirator mask but I don't have one.  I'm wearing a standard poorly fitted mask that doesn't offer great protection.  I have to wear the same damn gown every day for the same patients. Protocols to change protective equipment after each patient but we just don't have the resources.  It's madness. Don't let anyone tell you this isn't real. And it's definitely not just the flu. The flu doesn't kill 20% of patients hospitalized with it.  The flu doesn't permanently destroy your lungs like this. Stay safe my friends

YOU stay safe.

My wife was a nurse and was on the front lines at the start of the AIDS crisis. It was a very scary time not just for her, but for myself as well as early on, we didn't even know how the disease was spread from person to person. You, and thousands of other healthcare pros, put yourselves at risk on a daily basis doing what is right.

GooooMarquette

Quote from: Jockey on March 17, 2020, 08:11:11 PM
YOU stay safe.

My wife was a nurse and was on the front lines at the start of the AIDS crisis. It was a very scary time not just for her, but for myself as well as early on, we didn't even know how the disease was spread from person to person. You, and thousands of other healthcare pros, put yourselves at risk on a daily basis doing what is right.


+1 Keep fighting the good fight.

Hopefully, firsthand accounts like this will bring more people into our current reality.



Hards Alumni


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