Investing Thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

AAPL with another solid quarter even in the face of supply chain issues. Pretty amazing. EPS up 8.6% YoY, bumped the dividend, authorized more buybacks. Execution is outstanding.

[MuggsyB]

Amazon is plunging pre-market hours.

[MU82]

Amazon is plunging pre-market hours.

They had yet another incredible quarter, but guidance was less than anticipated. When you have the kind of multiple AMZN does, you're priced almost for perfection. Such price action is pretty common for high-valuation tech names; for example, TSLA declined 11.6% on Jan. 27.

If AMZN declines that much once the market opens, it could be pretty attractively priced if one believes in the long-term success of the business.

[MuggsyB]

They had yet another incredible quarter, but guidance was less than anticipated. When you have the kind of multiple AMZN does, you're priced almost for perfection. Such price action is pretty common for high-valuation tech names; for example, TSLA declined 11.6% on Jan. 27.

I was thinking about it....although I'm not sure we have bottomed out yet. 

If AMZN declines that much once the market opens, it could be pretty attractively priced if one believes in the long-term success of the business.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Greater Fool Theory in action:

Bored Ape Metaverse Frenzy Raises Millions, Crashes Ethereum
Users scramble for NFT deeds to 55,000 plots of virtual land

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-01/bored-ape-metaverse-frenzy-raises-millions-disrupts-ethereum

Yuga Labs, the creator of the popular Bored Apes Yacht Club collection of NFTs, launched a sale Saturday of virtual land related to its highly anticipated metaverse project, raising about $320 million worth of cryptocurrency in the largest offering of its kind. Demand was so strong that activity related to the event caused ripple effects across the entire Ethereum blockchain, disrupting activity and sending transaction fees soaring.

Each plot cost a buyer around $5,800 based on ApeCoin’s price of $19 as of Saturday, plus transaction costs, or “gas fees,” in Ether, which skyrocketed after the sale went live at 9 p.m. New York time as the land grab attracted heavy demand. Transaction costs just to mint Otherdeed NFTs after the launch reached $123 million, with each Otherdeed requiring about $6,000, or 2 Ether, in transaction fees to mint, according to data from Etherscan -- or more than the price of the deed itself.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Another beat and raise from CVS.

I do think it is pretty much fully valued here after being up +38% YTD. Next catalyst will be restarting dividend increases either with the Q4 earning report or before the Q1 dividend declaration.

Another boring beat and raise from CVS. They increased dividends 10% with this quarter. With the pullback to the high 90's, I think they are now 10% - 15% undervalued.

[MU82]

Fed with a .5% raise. Mr. Market seems to be happy there wasn't a more aggressive surprise.

[Goose]

I hope Powell & Co are right that they can slow things down without causing a recession. They are making a big bet on being right and time will tell. While I might be doom and gloom on the economy, I hope as hell the Fed is right.

[Hards Alumni]

Fed with a .5% raise. Mr. Market seems to be happy there wasn't a more aggressive surprise.

Baked in.

[JWags85]

I hope Powell & Co are right that they can slow things down without causing a recession. They are making a big bet on being right and time will tell. While I might be doom and gloom on the economy, I hope as hell the Fed is right.

I don't bank on Powell being right on anything but how to turn on the BRRR machines

[Goose]

Wags

I am betting on some type of inflation stimulus to be announced over the next couple of months in an attempt to sway some votes in November and that will keep Jay busy. I have big doubts that he is doing the right thing, but hope I am wrong. I always say that watching your own business/career is best visibility into the economy and I am seeing red flags on weekly basis.

[forgetful]

Wags

I am betting on some type of inflation stimulus to be announced over the next couple of months in an attempt to sway some votes in November and that will keep Jay busy. I have big doubts that he is doing the right thing, but I am wrong. I always say that watching your own business/career is best visibility into the economy and I am seeing red flags on weekly basis.

In all honesty. The bolded is needed right now.

[MuggsyB]

It doesn't sound like the Fed has any real plan for inflation unless I missed something.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

It doesn't sound like the Fed has any real plan for inflation unless I missed something.

I mean, they raised interest rates today…

[MuggsyB]

I mean, they raised interest rates today…

As they always do but we're at a 40 yr high.  I don't think incremental raises will do a whole lot.  We also have a severe labor shortage.

[jesmu84]

Whatever they do will disproportionately impact poor/low income.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Shipping is backing up something fierce outside Chinese ports, with all of the lockdowns they are implementing.

Likely to see another supply chain mess in the near future.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1522018798538477568?t=QJ3kkVqmyVoIX7ajPE9y-w&s=19

[MU82]

Baked in.

If you mean that the market expected the exact raise the Fed made, I agree. But Powell's press conference definitely seemed to calm/please investors. I mean, a 3% advance for SPX is not business as usual.

[Goose]

Ziggy,

I can only add firsthand info on the effects of the lockdown, but our revenues took about 15% hit in April. We have a nice project and supply a Diesel engine component to a supplier to Cummins and two containers that were to ship on March 28th are now scheduled for May 20th and I will believe it when I see it. Our client has about 80% of the business on this part and we are getting pressure every day to put our second supplier in China to increase capacity. Supplier two is in southern China and can make more parts, but buys the flange from greater Shanghai.

By the way, good share from Ian Bremmer. He is another guy that knows his stuff and tells the straight story.

[Hards Alumni]

As they always do but we're at a 40 yr high.  I don't think incremental raises will do a whole lot.  We also have a severe labor shortage.

The solution to that is to allow more immigrants in.

[Hards Alumni]

Shipping is backing up something fierce outside Chinese ports, with all of the lockdowns they are implementing.

Likely to see another supply chain mess in the near future.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1522018798538477568?t=QJ3kkVqmyVoIX7ajPE9y-w&s=19

Yup, and we will see the effects in a few weeks.  Shipping container companies are salivating.

[Hards Alumni]

In all honesty. The bolded is needed right now.

Printing more money fixes inflation how?

[Goose]

Hards

I would normally agree with you on feeling the effects of the lockdown in the upcoming weeks, but these are crazy times. I believe businesses are already feeling the effects and the consumer is lagging way behind. The entire supply chain mess has been impossible to figure out and I still do not feel the previous issues were 100% baked into cost of goods. I am far from a logistics expert, but containers costing 4-6x times normal cost and taking an extra 30-60 days should have translated into much higher costs than we have seen, IMO. I have accused the Chinese of funny accounting for 20+ years and now I wonder about our accounting in the USA. I guess I have grown very cynical on the topic after dealing with it over the past two years.

[MuggsyB]

The solution to that is to allow more immigrants in.

We're doing well on this front. 

[Hards Alumni]

We're doing well on this front.

No, not really.  A lot of people want to build a wall, or make people jump through countless hoops to become citizens.  We could and should be doing much more to increase immigration to the US.

Remember when the Irish, Italians, Germans and Poles just showed up at the port and came into the US with nothing but the clothes on their backs and a dream of a better life... and the US gave that to them?  You know, pretty much everyone here at scoop can track a family member that just showed up.  My great great grandfather probably snuck in from Canada.

What's the difference now?  The ones coming over the border for a better life are brown... so now it's a problem.  Makes no sense.