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Author Topic: Mortgage rates and the housing market  (Read 1222 times)

dgies9156

  • All American
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Re: Mortgage rates and the housing market
« Reply #50 on: Today at 11:06:57 AM »
whoops, not 4.25.

2.75.

What's interesting about your mortgage and others in that category is something called duration convexity, or duration drift. It's the concept that as market mortgage rates change, existing mortgages extend or contract in estimated life. In your case, mortgage mortality would factor out most rate-based factors and use a baseline mortgage life of 100 PSA, or about a 6 percent constant prepayment rate ("CPR") when the loan is pooled with others.

A 6 percent CPR effectively assumes a mortgage life of seven years. To get at that rate of prepayment, the borrower dies, moves to a different home or becomes fortunate and pays off the mortgage. At a mortgage interest rate of 2.75 percent, the most probable action leading to mortgage mortality, move up or out, (which, trust me, your lender wants... badly!!!!) will be eliminated. It is unlikely for the foreseeable future that we'll ever see mortgage interest rates as low as your's again. That's going to have a huge effect on real estate agents, as supply and buyers will be fewer.

You will have a bank, insurance company, sovereign wealth fund or other investor screaming at you for a long time to come!!!!!!