MUScoop
MUScoop => The Superbar => Topic started by: TSmith34, Inc. on October 29, 2019, 10:00:08 AM
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Since Chicos managed to get the last one locked, let's try again.
MU82, anything looking tempting to you right now? (Yes, I know all the caveats that you do not dispense advice :)) My small foray into ABBV has worked out fine so far, but I have another chunk that I'm partially looking to put to work due to the payout from Altaba.
Saw your write up on HON, and I agree. That was one that I had on my short list three years ago and never pulled the trigger--congrats on making a much better decision that me. Like you, I've also been increasing my cash position, but want to put some of the AABA cash back to work.
Anything stick out to you?
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I "like" a lot of companies, but valuations are so stretched on the highest quality names that it's not easy to find many I'm willing to buy.
AT&T just had a really good earnings report. Price has run up this year, but it's still fairly attractive compared to its historic valuations, it has a good dividend (not great dividend growth but a high yield), and it has some growth catalysts going forward.
In a similar industry, Comcast is a solid company that looks fairly valued, and Disney is still not outrageous.
If, like me, you aren't overly concerned about legislative changes that could radically shake up health care, UnitedHealth is a money-making machine and a decent value.
I like stocks of companies that make war machines because that never really goes out of fashion. They've had a pretty big run-up the last several years, though. Lockheed Martin is my fave of the group, but Northrup, Raytheon, UTX, GD, HON, etc, all have some good things going.
I love everything about Microsoft except the valuation -- one of the best-run companies out there IMHO. The same could be said of quite a few defensive companies, such as utilities (NextEra is my favorite) and consumer staples (McCormick, Hormel, Costco, etc etc).
Possible value plays involving beaten-down stocks for those with strong stomachs could include MO, CVS, MMM. Both Amazon and Alphabet (Google) had disappointments in recent earnings reports; neither is cheap, but both are cheaper than a week ago.
Just a few names to chew on. Obviously, there are thousands more.
Again, I do not offer refunds ... but I'm happy to take a share of profits - ha!
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Buy SPY and call it a day
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Since Chicos managed to get the last one locked, let's try again.
MU82, anything looking tempting to you right now? (Yes, I know all the caveats that you do not dispense advice :)) My small foray into ABBV has worked out fine so far, but I have another chunk that I'm partially looking to put to work due to the payout from Altaba.
Saw your write up on HON, and I agree. That was one that I had on my short list three years ago and never pulled the trigger--congrats on making a much better decision that me. Like you, I've also been increasing my cash position, but want to put some of the AABA cash back to work.
Anything stick out to you?
I did? Source? Seriously, would like to see how I was responsible.
I’ve pulled back on equities at the moment as we begin the crazy season for the next 12 months.
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I "like" a lot of companies, but valuations are so stretched on the highest quality names that it's not easy to find many I'm willing to buy.
AT&T just had a really good earnings report. Price has run up this year, but it's still fairly attractive compared to its historic valuations, it has a good dividend (not great dividend growth but a high yield), and it has some growth catalysts going forward.
In a similar industry, Comcast is a solid company that looks fairly valued, and Disney is still not outrageous.
If, like me, you aren't overly concerned about legislative changes that could radically shake up health care, UnitedHealth is a money-making machine and a decent value.
I like stocks of companies that make war machines because that never really goes out of fashion. They've had a pretty big run-up the last several years, though. Lockheed Martin is my fave of the group, but Northrup, Raytheon, UTX, GD, HON, etc, all have some good things going.
I love everything about Microsoft except the valuation -- one of the best-run companies out there IMHO. The same could be said of quite a few defensive companies, such as utilities (NextEra is my favorite) and consumer staples (McCormick, Hormel, Costco, etc etc).
Possible value plays involving beaten-down stocks for those with strong stomachs could include MO, CVS, MMM. Both Amazon and Alphabet (Google) had disappointments in recent earnings reports; neither is cheap, but both are cheaper than a week ago.
Just a few names to chew on. Obviously, there are thousands more.
Again, I do not offer refunds ... but I'm happy to take a share of profits - ha!
Thanks for your thoughts 82.
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Buy SPY and call it a day
I don't disagree with you, only not at these levels and not with such a long bull market.
I've been slowly rotating my portfolio to create a synthetic annuity, but I think buying SPY during the next bear pullback is a smart play for a core portion.
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AT&T announced HBO Max SVOD launch yesterday for May. Will be interesting to see how that all goes.
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AT&T announced HBO Max SVOD launch yesterday for May. Will be interesting to see how that all goes.
The market anticipation of dumping deadweight DTV in a spin-off also is also a nice upside.
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The market anticipation of dumping deadweight DTV in a spin-off also is also a nice upside.
DTV is and always has been a cash flow play for AT&T and allowed their Uverse product to finally by margin positive by combining more favorable programmer deals. Who is going to buy DTV?
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DTV is and always has been a cash flow play for AT&T and allowed their Uverse product to finally by margin positive by combining more favorable programmer deals. Who is going to buy DTV?
If nobody does, they could just spin it off. That's what companies do sometimes with underperforming divisions. Honeywell spun off two such divisions last year, for example.
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I hear the Duke brothers are buying orange juice futures.
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I hear the Duke brothers are buying orange juice futures.
I'll bet you $1 on that.
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I'll bet you $1 on that.
;D
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On a more serious note, it's hard to give individual stock advice when we don't know what the rest of the portfolio looks like.
It's important not to have too much exposure to any one area of the market. I try to avoid just giving one name when making recommendations, I'm just not that smart.
So, I will tell you what my last three purchases were for my personal portfolio. Exelixis(EXEL), biotech stock. Infinera(INFN) communication equipment. Starbucks, I think you know what they do.
EXEL, I've owned for a long time, my original purchase was for about $4/share, then I bought more under 2. It's beenmy biggest winner. I recently bought more. They report today after the close, so likely a big move up or down.
INFN, I'm taking a flyer on, I bought it at 5 bucks/share.
SBUX I bought recently, I'm slightly underwater there. They also report today. Bought for the income and long-term growth potential.
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On a more serious note, it's hard to give individual stock advice when we don't know what the rest of the portfolio looks like.
It's important not to have too much exposure to any one area of the market. I try to avoid just giving one name when making recommendations, I'm just not that smart.
So, I will tell you what my last three purchases were for my personal portfolio. Exelixis(EXEL), biotech stock. Infinera(INFN) communication equipment. Starbucks, I think you know what they do.
EXEL, I've owned for a long time, my original purchase was for about $4/share, then I bought more under 2. It's beenmy biggest winner. I recently bought more. They report today after the close, so likely a big move up or down.
INFN, I'm taking a flyer on, I bought it at 5 bucks/share.
SBUX I bought recently, I'm slightly underwater there. They also report today. Bought for the income and long-term growth potential.
SBUX just reported strong earnings. A very nice report all around. Plus, a 14% dividend hike. I did trim some a month or so back, taking some profits when they approached their all-time high, but I still hold plenty. A superbly run company with a deep moat.
Thanks for those other two names. They really aren't in my wheelhouse, as I am a long-term investor who prefers dividend-growing companies, but I always like to learn about interesting investment opportunities.
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I'm investing in Dawson Garcia's image, likeness and name futures, but only if he commits to MU.
He is starting an IPO from what I hear.
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Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.
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If nobody does, they could just spin it off. That's what companies do sometimes with underperforming divisions. Honeywell spun off two such divisions last year, for example.
Just my suggestion, but I think you may want to listen to AT&T’s earnings call from Monday about that asset.
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Just my suggestion, but I think you may want to listen to AT&T’s earnings call from Monday about that asset.
Thanks
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Who’s playing a nifty strategy with AYX?
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DTV is and always has been a cash flow play for AT&T and allowed their Uverse product to finally by margin positive by combining more favorable programmer deals. Who is going to buy DTV?
Rumored to be Apollo
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Just my suggestion, but I think you may want to listen to AT&T’s earnings call from Monday about that asset.
Here are the two main points the CEO and CFO made about DTV in the earnings call:
Gaining scale in linear pay TV was the core rationale behind our DIRECTV acquisition. We realized the satellite business was mature and we anticipated subscriber losses.
However, the content savings quickly turned our U-verse pay TV business from loss to a profit. And since we bought DIRECTV, it has generated healthy cash flows of over $4 billion per year or a total of $22 billion in cash by the end of this year.
Our free cash flow has grown significantly over the past few years, and that's thanks in part to our DIRECTV and Time Warner deals being cash flow-accretive on day 1. We expect free cash flow to be at $28 billion in 2020.
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And ...
We're always open to making portfolio moves, and DIRECTV has been the source of a lot of public speculation in that regard. As we've said, it will be an important piece of our strategy over the next 3 years.
But no portion of our business is ever exempt from a continuous assessment for fit and performance. We'll approach it with a fresh set of eyes and clarity around the rapidly evolving consumer environment, and we'll evaluate multiple options. That includes partnerships and other structures.
Likewise, given the quality of our assets, there will be no major acquisitions during the next several years.[/i]
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In other words, they are rationalizing having significantly overspent for DTV by saying it's been a cash-flow machine ... and they are talking like a pro sports team GM might about a player they think will be part of their future but never say never to moving any player.
There is no reason for them to give away DTV. It really is a solid cash-flow creator, and they need that. But, as the CEO said, there are no "sacred cows." Selling or spinning off DTV certainly could happen.
Seriously, hoopy, thanks for calling it to my intention. I usually only read earnings call transcripts if I am considering buying or selling a stock, but this was interesting.
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Here are the two main points the CEO and CFO made about DTV in the earnings call:
Gaining scale in linear pay TV was the core rationale behind our DIRECTV acquisition. We realized the satellite business was mature and we anticipated subscriber losses.
However, the content savings quickly turned our U-verse pay TV business from loss to a profit. And since we bought DIRECTV, it has generated healthy cash flows of over $4 billion per year or a total of $22 billion in cash by the end of this year.
Our free cash flow has grown significantly over the past few years, and that's thanks in part to our DIRECTV and Time Warner deals being cash flow-accretive on day 1. We expect free cash flow to be at $28 billion in 2020.
[/i]
And ...
We're always open to making portfolio moves, and DIRECTV has been the source of a lot of public speculation in that regard. As we've said, it will be an important piece of our strategy over the next 3 years.
But no portion of our business is ever exempt from a continuous assessment for fit and performance. We'll approach it with a fresh set of eyes and clarity around the rapidly evolving consumer environment, and we'll evaluate multiple options. That includes partnerships and other structures.
Likewise, given the quality of our assets, there will be no major acquisitions during the next several years.[/i]
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In other words, they are rationalizing having significantly overspent for DTV by saying it's been a cash-flow machine ... and they are talking like a pro sports team GM might about a player they think will be part of their future but never say never to moving any player.
There is no reason for them to give away DTV. It really is a solid cash-flow creator, and they need that. But, as the CEO said, there are no "sacred cows." Selling or spinning off DTV certainly could happen.
Seriously, hoopy, thanks for calling it to my intention. I usually only read earnings call transcripts if I am considering buying or selling a stock, but this was interesting.
Happy to help.
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Is it generally smart to take advantage of employee stock plans?
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Is it generally smart to take advantage of employee stock plans?
I think so. (But again, I'm no "expert.")
My son-in-law has worked for Microsoft for 10+ years and he has a VERY nice nest egg going for a guy who's only 32. And my daughter got a lot of Starbucks stock before she left there.
Now, of course, somebody who has worked at GE hasn't fared as well with company stock.
But especially if you can buy $1 worth for 80-85 cents, like some company plans do ... that's a no-brainer.
On the flip side, there is a rule of thumb that loading up on stock from your employer might mean you have too much invested in one company: You've invested a lot of $$ and they also control your work situation. But I personally am not a big "rule of thumb" guy.
I wish you good fortune.
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I don't disagree with you, only not at these levels and not with such a long bull market.
I've been slowly rotating my portfolio to create a synthetic annuity, but I think buying SPY during the next bear pullback is a smart play for a core portion.
What I meant is stock picking is a dead art form. It is impossible to beat the market. So don’t try ... buy SPY
https://www.wsj.com/articles/twilight-of-the-stock-pickers-hedge-fund-kings-face-a-reckoning-11572197217
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Is it generally smart to take advantage of employee stock plans?
Yes, it’s literally free money. I get a 15% discount at my company. We had a good Q2, and we had ended the previous quarter low. Getting to buy at the low, adding in the 15% discount on top of the low, I made an outstanding profit selling the day the shares entered my account.
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Buy Can All Pet.
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What I meant is stock picking is a dead art form. It is impossible to beat the market. So don’t try ... buy SPY
https://www.wsj.com/articles/twilight-of-the-stock-pickers-hedge-fund-kings-face-a-reckoning-11572197217
Impossible?
This guy, who is no expert and just a regular dude, has been crushing SPY with the real-money public portfolio he is building in real-time, with every buy he has made documented:
https://dailytradealert.com/2019/10/12/amazing-income-growth-and-market-dominating-total-return-for-our-income-builder-portfolio-2019-q3-review/
Just because hedge fund managers like those in your link -- who do a very unique kind of investing -- haven't been able to beat the market, it doesn't mean you or I can't.
Importantly, though, not every investor has a goal of beating SPY, nor should they.
Some are closing in on retirement and seek to build a reliable, growing income stream -- one that would nicely supplement Social Security (and pensions, if fortune to have them), and give them financial independence without ever having to sell a single share of stock if they don't want to.
For these "dividend growth investing" proponents, owning stock in blue-chip companies that have been raising dividends for decades is more important than beating a benchmark. Interestingly, those who have bought and held "Dividend Aristocrats" for years have outperformed SPY without even having that as a goal.
Having said all that, I would never try to convince somebody not to invest in SPY, especially those who don't want to put in the time necessary to invest in individual stocks. Before getting into stocks, I primarily owned index funds, and they helped me get to where I am today. Those who own SPY also are less likely to trade in and out of the market -- it is this frequent activity that most hurts stock investors.
Oh, and AAPL just had another fine earnings report and is ready to hit ANOTHER all-time high.
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Lots of people Hoopalooping as 82 in this thread.
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Is it generally smart to take advantage of employee stock plans?
Typically you get a 15% discount on the stock price pegged over a certain period (so your discount could be +/- 15% depending on when shares are actually put in your account), so it is generally free money.
Unless all of your net worth is in your employers stock and not diversified (See: Enron, where people were allocating 100% of the 401(k) contributions to company stock) it is a very good deal.
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$WWE getting taken to the woodshed today. (I purposely didn't use a wrestling pun).
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Impossible?
This guy, who is no expert and just a regular dude, has been crushing SPY with the real-money public portfolio he is building in real-time, with every buy he has made documented:
https://dailytradealert.com/2019/10/12/amazing-income-growth-and-market-dominating-total-return-for-our-income-builder-portfolio-2019-q3-review/
Just because hedge fund managers like those in your link -- who do a very unique kind of investing -- haven't been able to beat the market, it doesn't mean you or I can't.
Importantly, though, not every investor has a goal of beating SPY, nor should they.
Some are closing in on retirement and seek to build a reliable, growing income stream -- one that would nicely supplement Social Security (and pensions, if fortune to have them), and give them financial independence without ever having to sell a single share of stock if they don't want to.
For these "dividend growth investing" proponents, owning stock in blue-chip companies that have been raising dividends for decades is more important than beating a benchmark. Interestingly, those who have bought and held "Dividend Aristocrats" for years have outperformed SPY without even having that as a goal.
Having said all that, I would never try to convince somebody not to invest in SPY, especially those who don't want to put in the time necessary to invest in individual stocks. Before getting into stocks, I primarily owned index funds, and they helped me get to where I am today. Those who own SPY also are less likely to trade in and out of the market -- it is this frequent activity that most hurts stock investors.
Oh, and AAPL just had another fine earnings report and is ready to hit ANOTHER all-time high.
Maybe you are unique and talented and one of the very few that can beat the index through stock picking.
It's like asking Michael Jordan how to be a great player. Don't bother, I'm not him and he cannot tell me how to be great at basketball.
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Typically you get a 15% discount on the stock price pegged over a certain period (so your discount could be +/- 15% depending on when shares are actually put in your account), so it is generally free money.
Unless all of your net worth is in your employers stock and not diversified (See: Enron, where people were allocating 100% of the 401(k) contributions to company stock) it is a very good deal.
That's definitely the key. My FIL worked for IBM and has all of his retirement tied to them. I've tried to convince him to diversify, but he won't budge. Fortunately, although IBM has taken its hits, it has survived.
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Maybe you are unique and talented and one of the very few that can beat the index through stock picking.
But I'm not, and I said as much.
If you actually took a second to look at that portfolio, it's not as if it's filled with crazy speculative stocks that were unearthed by pure genious and that required extreme risk-taking. It's a bunch of "boring" names -- utilities, consumer staples, consumer discretionaries, industrials. It doesn't take genious and risk-taking to invest in McCormick, Pepsi, NextEra, Honeywell and Apple.
Despite Benny's hilarity, there really isn't any hoopaloopin' going on here. I am not bragging at all. In your Smugglesish way, you claimed that nobody can beat SPY, and I simply presented evidence that it happens -- and pretty often.
In my personal portfolio, the key to it happening is that I stopped churning my portfolio. I'd have an even bigger advantage if I hadn't sold so many great companies early on, looking for something better.
Studies determining that "retail investors cannot beat SPY" use averages. The majority don't beat SPY because they churn their portfolio too darn much. They can't sit still. They are always looking for the next hot investment.
Buy-and-hold, dividend-growth investors routinely outperform SPY.
And, one more time, many investors don't have beating SPY as a goal.
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TSMith, I take it you didn’t find evidence of your accusation in the opening of this thread?
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But I'm not, and I said as much.
If you actually took a second to look at that portfolio, it's not as if it's filled with crazy speculative stocks that were unearthed by pure genious and that required extreme risk-taking. It's a bunch of "boring" names -- utilities, consumer staples, consumer discretionaries, industrials. It doesn't take genious and risk-taking to invest in McCormick, Pepsi, NextEra, Honeywell and Apple.
Despite Benny's hilarity, there really isn't any hoopaloopin' going on here. I am not bragging at all. In your Smugglesish way, you claimed that nobody can beat SPY, and I simply presented evidence that it happens -- and pretty often.
In my personal portfolio, the key to it happening is that I stopped churning my portfolio. I'd have an even bigger advantage if I hadn't sold so many great companies early on, looking for something better.
Studies determining that "retail investors cannot beat SPY" use averages. The majority don't beat SPY because they churn their portfolio too darn much. They can't sit still. They are always looking for the next hot investment.
Buy-and-hold, dividend-growth investors routinely outperform SPY.
And, one more time, many investors don't have beating SPY as a goal.
I think his point is the majority of people on this board are better off buying index funds or low cost ETFs (whether that be the S&P 500, Russell 1000 Value, or a low cost Dividend focused ETF) rather than buying individual stocks.
Fantastic time to be retail investor, though, whether buying active products, individual stocks, or indexes. Pretty much costs nothing to trade anymore.
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I think his point is the majority of people on this board are better off buying index funds or low cost ETFs (whether that be the S&P 500, Russell 1000 Value, or a low cost Dividend focused ETF) rather than buying individual stocks.
Fantastic time to be retail investor, though, whether buying active products, individual stocks, or indexes. Pretty much costs nothing to trade anymore.
And it's a reasonable point, one John Bogle made decades and decades ago. As long as it isn't painted in absolutes "because Smuggles sez nobody can do it."
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I think there are a few issues with “nobody can beat the SPY”. Usually it’s focusing on the accidental investor, who grabs shares here and there of companies they like or use their products, or they pull out to these 20+ year time frames. Cause people get smacked all the time on shorter time frames.
I grew up thinking my father was an investing genius. He had a couple stocks he dumped money into in the 80s that grew exponentially. In reality, he was an electrical engineer, he knew integrated circuits and semiconductors, and bought companies whose products he worked with and were great at what they did. He made huge returns on a number of companies over a 10-15 year period, well over the best performing indicies.
That’s what I recommend to people. Invest in what you know or become really interested in one sector. Use that for your stock picking.
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And it's a reasonable point, one John Bogle made decades and decades ago. As long as it isn't painted in absolutes "because Smuggles sez nobody can do it."
Your numbers are terrific. You should have your own private plane.
You would if you shopped your services to investment management firms in NYC.
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Your numbers are terrific. You should have your own private plane.
You would if you shopped your services to investment management firms in NYC.
Outstanding. I'm ready. Hook me up with one of your buddies, Smuggles.
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Here's the first paragraph of an article (not by me or anybody I know) that ran on Seeking Alpha today:
In a number of recent articles, I have been covering strategies that have outperformed since the '07 market peak. Of the eleven factor tilt strategies where these articles have demonstrated the generation of alpha over this period, four strategies have been dividend-focused strategies. Those strategies - the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (NOBL), the S&P 500 Low Volatility High Dividend ETF (SPHD), the Russell 2000 Dividend Growers ETF (SMDV), and the S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats (REGL) all posted outperformance in both the stock market drawdown and the subsequent recovery.
The article goes on to say that those who reached for really high yield underperformed.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4300858-dividend-disconnect?ifp=0&app=1
But the thesis was that four different strategies, all of which are forms of Dividend Growth Investing, have outperformed SPY over the last dozen years, many quite handily.
So the narrative that "nobody can beat SPY" is a silly one. Buy-and-hold(ish) DGI proponents have been outperforming the market for years.
Does that mean they will continue beating the market? Nobody knows that. Not even Smuggles!
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TSMith, I take it you didn’t find evidence of your accusation in the opening of this thread?
Yes, see the end of the previous thread. Then kindly STFU and don't ruin this one.
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And it's a reasonable point, one John Bogle made decades and decades ago. As long as it isn't painted in absolutes "because Smuggles sez nobody can do it."
Buffet has made that point as well. The vast, vast majority of people do not have the time and expertise to even attempt beating the SPY, which I think is his point.
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Here's the first paragraph of an article (not by me or anybody I know) that ran on Seeking Alpha today:
In a number of recent articles, I have been covering strategies that have outperformed since the '07 market peak. Of the eleven factor tilt strategies where these articles have demonstrated the generation of alpha over this period, four strategies have been dividend-focused strategies. Those strategies - the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (NOBL), the S&P 500 Low Volatility High Dividend ETF (SPHD), the Russell 2000 Dividend Growers ETF (SMDV), and the S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats (REGL) all posted outperformance in both the stock market drawdown and the subsequent recovery.
The article goes on to say that those who reached for really high yield underperformed.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4300858-dividend-disconnect?ifp=0&app=1
But the thesis was that four different strategies, all of which are forms of Dividend Growth Investing, have outperformed SPY over the last dozen years, many quite handily.
So the narrative that "nobody can beat SPY" is a silly one. Buy-and-hold(ish) DGI proponents have been outperforming the market for years.
Does that mean they will continue beating the market? Nobody knows that. Not even Smuggles!
I do own some SPHD, as well as an international version in EFAV, and SMDV is on my buy list.
In terms of individual names, I really like CVS, though I liked it more at 58 when I was telling everyone to buy it. They're ahead of pace on their merger synergies it looks like the dividend increases will start again in 12-18 months.
For a speculative stock, ERII. It took new management to fix them, but their core desalination business is humming and I think the long term shortage of water will continue to drive growth, but the kicker is that they are adapting their pressure exchange technology to other fields and, though much delayed, should actually finally commercialize it for the oil & gas industry in the next 6 months.
For active trading, I been using buy-write strategies on bank stocks, mostly WFC, but also C and BAC. Successfully capturing dividends, call premiums, and cap gains so far, though right now I've had everything called and am out of the market on this.
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Buffet has made that point as well. The vast, vast majority of people do not have the time and expertise to even attempt beating the SPY, which I think is his point.
And I agree. If only Smuggles had said that instead of: It is impossible to beat the market.
Because it clearly isn't impossible. Which is one reason Buffett and others like him don't invest only in SPY.
I do own some SPHD, as well as an international version in EFAV, and SMDV is on my buy list.
In terms of individual names, I really like CVS, though I liked it more at 58 when I was telling everyone to buy it. They're ahead of pace on their merger synergies it looks like the dividend increases will start again in 12-18 months.
For a speculative stock, ERII. It took new management to fix them, but their core desalination business is humming and I think the long term shortage of water will continue to drive growth, but the kicker is that they are adapting their pressure exchange technology to other fields and, though much delayed, should actually finally commercialize it for the oil & gas industry in the next 6 months.
For active trading, I been using buy-write strategies on bank stocks, mostly WFC, but also C and BAC. Successfully capturing dividends, call premiums, and cap gains so far, though right now I've had everything called and am out of the market on this.
You are pretty hard-core at this stuff, TS, and it sounds like you are comfortable with what you're doing.
I am a very simple, buy-and-hold(ish) investor. I have never done options, never shorted a stock, never hedged with gold, never traded bitcoin, etc. As Clint used to say, "A man's got to know his limitations."
My goal has always been "to have more than enough for my wife and I to live fun, satisfying, financially independent lives until we die." I guess it would be cool to be a bazillionaire also, but it's not gonna happen!
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And I agree. If only Smuggles had said that instead of: It is impossible to beat the market.
Because it clearly isn't impossible. Which is one reason Buffett and others like him don't invest only in SPY.
It was pretty easy to beat Warren this year...he would have been much better off in SPY. The Oracle has lost his touch.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-underperformance-splits-investors-ahead-090000291.html
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It was pretty easy to beat Warren this year...he would have been much better off in SPY. The Oracle has lost his touch.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-underperformance-splits-investors-ahead-090000291.html
He said a number of years ago that he didn't think he was going to be able to beat the S&P500 anymore due to the size of BRK. Small companies and acquisitions that could outperform simply don't make any difference for them, thus he is relegated to buying behemoths so the size of his investable universe is pretty limited.
Now you could say he was sand-bagging or managing expectations, but who knows. Whether he has lost his touch or not (he and Charlie have been letting their Lieutenants make more and more investment decisions), we know one year isn't a very good measuring stick. Over 5 years BRK is edging the SPY but barely, 54% to 52%.
EDIT: And over 10 years he is lagging 196% to 228%
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He said a number of years ago that he didn't think he was going to be able to beat the S&P500 anymore due to the size of BRK. Small companies and acquisitions that could outperform simply don't make any difference for them, thus he is relegated to buying behemoths so the size of his investable universe is pretty limited.
Now you could say he was sand-bagging or managing expectations, but who knows. Whether he has lost his touch or not (he and Charlie have been letting their Lieutenants make more and more investment decisions), we know one year isn't a very good measuring stick. Over 5 years BRK is edging the SPY but barely, 54% to 52%.
EDIT: And over 10 years he is lagging 196% to 228%
Yessir, Buffett does appear to be slowing down, and maybe he should sell everything and just buy SPY.
Of course, if he did that, he wouldn't need himself and his underlings to operate Berkshire Hathaway. So don't expect it to happen anytime soon!
And on a subject we discussed not long ago ...
TS, did you notice that ABBV just had a very nice earnings report and hiked its dividend 10%. Even though it has gained in price recently, it's still yielding nearly 6%.
Solid company. I wouldn't make it the centerpiece of my portfolio (and it actually is only about 1% of it), but I like it for the income boost and for the prospect of some good drugs coming into its pipeline.
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Yessir, Buffett does appear to be slowing down, and maybe he should sell everything and just buy SPY.
Of course, if he did that, he wouldn't need himself and his underlings to operate Berkshire Hathaway. So don't expect it to happen anytime soon!
And on a subject we discussed not long ago ...
TS, did you notice that ABBV just had a very nice earnings report and hiked its dividend 10%. Even though it has gained in price recently, it's still yielding nearly 6%.
Solid company. I wouldn't make it the centerpiece of my portfolio (and it actually is only about 1% of it), but I like it for the income boost and for the prospect of some good drugs coming into its pipeline.
Yup, they still have the patent cliff issue a few years down the road but I'm liking my entry price and the dividend. I started with a small position so it's even less (0.8%) for me but so far so good. If they execute on the dividend plan my YOC will be 8%+ in a few years. Might DRIP that but haven't decided yet.
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Yes, see the end of the previous thread. Then kindly STFU and don't ruin this one.
Link please
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He said a number of years ago that he didn't think he was going to be able to beat the S&P500 anymore due to the size of BRK.
EDIT: And over 10 years he is lagging 196% to 228%
It is worse than that. He really started underperforming for 21 years ago!
(the 1998 peak in the relative performance chart below is higher than the last plot. That means he has underperformed the market since that date.
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2F06bd3b48-669e-11e9-9adc-98bf1d35a056?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=700)
https://www.ft.com/content/40b9b356-661e-11e9-a79d-04f350474d62
And his long-time investors are bailing on him.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/longtime-berkshire-hathaway-investor-warren-buffett-51571069340?mod=hp_LEAD_1
His problem is simple ... instead of constantly bragging that he doesn't understand tech and spent that time learning about tech, and started investing in it in the 1990s, he wouldn't be this god awful.
(He is so awful because mere mortals are not allowed to get this bad. They are fired long before it gets to this point. But Warren can suck for a generation and we still talk about him with reverance.)
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His problem is simple ... instead of constantly bragging that he doesn't understand tech and spent that time learning about tech, and started investing in it in the 1990s, he wouldn't be this god awful.
I think he recognized that, albeit too late probably, because he put his Lt.'s in charge of distinct chunks of the portfolio, thus the big position in AAPL.
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Whether or not folks regard Buffett as a once-upon-a-time great investor, a no-longer great investor, a still-great investor or a never-was great investor, it means diddly-do to me.
It's irrelevant to the conversation about whether it is "possible" to beat SPY. Of course it is; many do.
Beyond that, the fact that many do is irrelevant as to whether most folks should invest in SPY. If somebody came to me and said, "I think I'm going to put the stock portion of my portfolio into SPY," I would not try for even one second to talk him or her out of doing so. It, and other good index ETFs and funds, is a logical vehicle for most to invest in.
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Whether or not folks regard Buffett as a once-upon-a-time great investor, a no-longer great investor, a still-great investor or a never-was great investor, it means diddly-do to me.
It's irrelevant to the conversation about whether it is "possible" to beat SPY. Of course it is; many do.
Beyond that, the fact that many do is irrelevant as to whether most folks should invest in SPY. If somebody came to me and said, "I think I'm going to put the stock portion of my portfolio into SPY," I would not try for even one second to talk him or her out of doing so. It, and other good index ETFs and funds, is a logical vehicle for most to invest in.
Which sectors do you like? I'm a bit heavy in health care and I'd like some free advice ;D
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Doug Kass is short MU lol
https://twitter.com/DougKass/status/1191822620586659846
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Which sectors do you like? I'm a bit heavy in health care and I'd like some free advice ;D
I'm not really very comfortable giving "advice." Besides, I don't know anything about your goals, risk tolerance, portfolio management style, etc.
For myself, I "like" quite a few sectors but much of the market is so overvalued right now that I'm putting very little new money to work, and I've even done some selling, which is unusual for me as I'm a buy-and-holdish kind of guy.
For example, as a guy who primarily uses the Dividend Growth Investing strategy, I like high-quality utilities and consumer staples. But my favorites, companies like NEE and MKC, are ridiculously overvalued. It doesn't mean they can't still go up from here, it just means they don't seem to give much margin of error.
I do like health care. A lot of even solid names have been beaten down over worries about major changes to the way Americans receive health care -- even though it is highly unlikely that these major changes will be realized. One I've bought fairly recently is UNH. TSmith and I already have discussed ABBV. Even JNJ, the stalwart of stalwarts in the industry, is fairly priced.
I like a lot of good tech companies, too, but I am cautious because I know they could fall pretty hard whenever the next recession comes. I think MSFT is one of the best-run companies out there, and it's hard to quibble with the likes of GOOGL or AAPL or even AVGO.
There are some reasonably valued companies in energy and industrials, but one has to be willing to accept that macro conditions create a lot of volatility in those sectors. For traders, that can be a good thing.
Just a little sampling for you. Obviously, there are thousands of publicly traded companies and lots of them are high-quality, blue-chip names. I don't speculate in little-known companies, so I don't have any "secrets" for you.
Happy investing.
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I do like health care. A lot of even solid names have been beaten down over worries about major changes to the way Americans receive health care -- even though it is highly unlikely that these major changes will be realized. One I've bought fairly recently is UNH. TSmith and I already have discussed ABBV. Even JNJ, the stalwart of stalwarts in the industry, is fairly priced.
Another one we mentioned in this space is CVS, which I think is still fairly valued if no longer cheap, and it has a nearly 3% dividend to keep the lights on while they finished their merger integration.
A name I like is Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (HASI) a REIT in the sustainable energy space which includes not only green energy but even more mundane improvements like scale HVAC projects. Mind you, they've run up more than 50% this year so they aren't inexpensive either (though ignore the published PE number, that isn't how REITS are priced), but I think management is superb.
The one thing in my portfolio that makes me really nervous is OHI. They just reported a decent quarter and even unexpectedly increased the dividend, but it is a real risky space...it is just hard to quit the juicy 6.1% yield.
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Another one we mentioned in this space is CVS, which I think is still fairly valued if no longer cheap, and it has a nearly 3% dividend to keep the lights on while they finish their merger integration.
A name I like is Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (HASI) a REIT in the sustainable energy space which includes not only green energy but even more mundane improvements like scale HVAC projects. Mind you, they've run up more than 50% this year so they aren't inexpensive either (though ignore the published PE number, that isn't how REITS are priced), but I think management is superb.
The one thing in my portfolio that makes me really nervous is OHI. They just reported a decent quarter and even unexpectedly increased the dividend, but it is a real risky space...it is just hard to quit the juicy 6.1% yield.
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Another one we mentioned in this space is CVS, which I think is still fairly valued if no longer cheap, and it has a nearly 3% dividend to keep the lights on while they finished their merger integration.
A name I like is Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (HASI) a REIT in the sustainable energy space which includes not only green energy but even more mundane improvements like scale HVAC projects. Mind you, they've run up more than 50% this year so they aren't inexpensive either (though ignore the published PE number, that isn't how REITS are priced), but I think management is superb.
The one thing in my portfolio that makes me really nervous is OHI. They just reported a decent quarter and even unexpectedly increased the dividend, but it is a real risky space...it is just hard to quit the juicy 6.1% yield.
I sold OHI last year. I just decided I didn't "need" it for the reasons you cited. I know many good investors whom I really respect who continue to hold it, though.
CVS reports earnings tomorrow, and I'll be interested. I already own some, not really looking to add more, but maybe. They froze their dividend after running up debt in the Aetna acquisition, but yes still a decent yield. Most analysts think CVS is quite undervalued. I've owned it for about 3 years and it's been a net loser for me so far.
Don't know much about HASI. The only REIT I own now is O.
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Which sectors do you like? I'm a bit heavy in health care and I'd like some free advice ;D
Consumer staples is the conventional wisdom at the currently perceived point in the cycle.
Keep an eye on KO... took a steep drop in past week but there was a lot of action in the January calls this morning, so someone’s making a big bet on a rebound.
And not the Mike Tyson kind.
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Query:
Will the reduction/elimination of brokerage fees by the major houses increase the volume of existing day traders and/or the quantity of day traders?
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CVS reports earnings tomorrow, and I'll be interested. I already own some, not really looking to add more, but maybe. They froze their dividend after running up debt in the Aetna acquisition, but yes still a decent yield. Most analysts think CVS is quite undervalued. I've owned it for about 3 years and it's been a net loser for me so far.
Beat and raise, best kind of report.
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Query:
Will the reduction/elimination of brokerage fees by the major houses increase the volume of existing day traders and/or the quantity of day traders?
I'm bad at predictions, but one would think nearly frictionless trading would increase the volume through either or both.
Thinking of taking up day trading? :)
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Query:
Will the reduction/elimination of brokerage fees by the major houses increase the volume of existing day traders and/or the quantity of day traders?
One wouldn't think that those who day trade for a living would be motivated by saving a couple of bucks, but I guess I could see more "amateurs" doing it now.
The best part of the no commission thing is that it really helps 20-somethings, 30-somethings and other relatively low-money investors who are just getting started.
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Beat and raise, best kind of report.
Yes, it was a nice report. Not all of the guidance was great, but it was good enough. I'm glad I held onto my CVS, though I haven't decided yet if it's gonna be a long-term one for me.
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Query:
Will the reduction/elimination of brokerage fees by the major houses increase the volume of existing day traders and/or the quantity of day traders?
I would imagine it may bring some in. But the problem is, and what people don’t realize, is that this just means these brokerage houses will sell your order flow to quant and hedge funds who will front run your orders.
So it’s great if you have a few hundred bucks and you can make a $50 trade without losing $8 to TD Ameritrade on both sides. But this is actually a development that will long run hurt small sized day traders. There were already places like TastyWorks or Interactive Brokers that had lower commissions, this just changed the business model for brokerages from commissions to data sales
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Beat and raise, best kind of report.
My broker has me in CVS for the same reason. It’s not done well but all the analysts believe it’s undervalued and is primed to take off.
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I would imagine it may bring some in. But the problem is, and what people don’t realize, is that this just means these brokerage houses will sell your order flow to quant and hedge funds who will front run your orders.
So it’s great if you have a few hundred bucks and you can make a $50 trade without losing $8 to TD Ameritrade on both sides. But this is actually a development that will long run hurt small sized day traders. There were already places like TastyWorks or Interactive Brokers that had lower commissions, this just changed the business model for brokerages from commissions to data sales
Interesting theory if not for the fact that it’s wildly illegal.
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I would imagine it may bring some in. But the problem is, and what people don’t realize, is that this just means these brokerage houses will sell your order flow to quant and hedge funds who will front run your orders.
So it’s great if you have a few hundred bucks and you can make a $50 trade without losing $8 to TD Ameritrade on both sides. But this is actually a development that will long run hurt small sized day traders. There were already places like TastyWorks or Interactive Brokers that had lower commissions, this just changed the business model for brokerages from commissions to data sales
Hmmm. I admit I've never heard this one before.
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Interesting theory if not for the fact that it’s wildly illegal.
Since when has that ever stopped anyone?
If someone makes $8-15ish on thousands of transactions, over millions of customers. Then suddenly that doesn’t decrease, it flat out vanishes. That company stock price should evaporate and the company be reeling on the ropes. Yet it isn’t. There is clearly a contingency plan and alternate revenue source they can rely on. I don’t know the specific machinations on it, but I know this won’t result in a pure win for the retail trader and a massive loss for brokerage houses.
It was one of the first thing that some smart people I follow said in the immediate aftermath of the commission changes.
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Since when has that ever stopped anyone?
If someone makes $8-15ish on thousands of transactions, over millions of customers. Then suddenly that doesn’t decrease, it flat out vanishes. That company stock price should evaporate and the company be reeling on the ropes. Yet it isn’t. There is clearly a contingency plan and alternate revenue source they can rely on. I don’t know the specific machinations on it, but I know this won’t result in a pure win for the retail trader and a massive loss for brokerage houses.
It was one of the first thing that some smart people I follow said in the immediate aftermath of the commission changes.
They make it up on volume and the bid/ask spread (a hidden implicit fee)
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Outstanding earnings report for Disney, which is about to hit an all-time high ...
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is up 3.8% postmarket after easily clearing the Street's profit bar in fiscal Q4 earnings, paced by strong gains in its TV networks and film studio juiced by its Fox acquisitions.
Revenues grew 34% Y/Y to $19.1B for the quarter. For the fiscal year, revenues were up 17% to $69.57B.
Total segment operating income rose 5% to $3.44B. Net income from continuing operations was $785M.
Revenue by segment: Media Networks, $6.51B (up 22%); Parks, Experiences and Products, $6.66B (up 8%); Studio Entertainment, $3.31B (up 52%); Direct-to-Consumer and International, $3.43B (up 316%).
Broadcast was an unexpected strength in Media Networks revenues, coming in well ahead of schedule at $2.27B.
Cash from continuing operations was $1.72B, and free cash flow $409M.
I guess those who said to stay away when DIS was in the $80s because ESPN was going to take the entire company down the drain might have miscalculated a little.
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Anyone else buy Micron Technologies just because their symbol is MU?
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Anyone else buy Micron Technologies just because their symbol is MU?
I bought MU for its P/E multiple.
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I bought MU for its P/E multiple.
Poor choice, you should buy them for their 3 pt shooting, but sell on their defense.
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I took advantage yesterday morning of people's fundamental misunderstanding of REITs to buy some AY. People see the big negative EPS number and don't understand that is pretty much a meaningless number. Their FAD was up and they increased their dividend so I locked some up with a yield over 7%. Price bounced back 5% already. This is a replacement for my PEGI, which was bought out (too cheaply IMO).
Good day for CVS, ABBV, and AY so far.
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Poor choice, you should buy them for their 3 pt shooting, but sell on their defense.
Honestly, that thesis might be played out now, with defense looking undervalued at this point and higher risk of 3 point production concentration shifting the margin drivers. If something goes wrong at the M2N plant, you could see a massive top line dip without a corresponding proportional EBITDA hit you would have expected in the past due to the aforementioned defensive improvements. After the stock took a hit from herd-like selling based on narrative over the summer, it now screens well on advanced metrics and I would be a BUY at these levels.
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Honestly, that thesis might be played out now, with defense looking undervalued at this point and higher risk of 3 point production concentration shifting the margin drivers. If something goes wrong at the M2N plant, you could see a massive top line dip without a corresponding proportional EBITDA hit you would have expected in the past due to the aforementioned defensive improvements. After the stock took a hit from herd-like selling based on narrative over the summer, it now screens well on advanced metrics and I would be a BUY at these levels.
Analysts are maintaining a Neutral rating until the 1Q results come out. Revenues are highly dependent on one customer and some are hoping they diversify their customer base. Talent acquisition has been promising, but they are waiting on one candidate to decide on their employment offer.
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Honestly, that thesis might be played out now, with defense looking undervalued at this point and higher risk of 3 point production concentration shifting the margin drivers. If something goes wrong at the M2N plant, you could see a massive top line dip without a corresponding proportional EBITDA hit you would have expected in the past due to the aforementioned defensive improvements. After the stock took a hit from herd-like selling based on narrative over the summer, it now screens well on advanced metrics and I would be a BUY at these levels.
Hmmm. Very interesting perspective.
(https://frinkiac.com/video/S08E12/dc4gz0FYpCVZp_wqc1csfZbixi8=.gif)
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Poor choice, you should buy them for their 3 pt shooting, but sell on their defense.
Buy it, don’t trade it.
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I took advantage yesterday morning of people's fundamental misunderstanding of REITs to buy some AY. People see the big negative EPS number and don't understand that is pretty much a meaningless number. Their FAD was up and they increased their dividend so I locked some up with a yield over 7%. Price bounced back 5% already. This is a replacement for my PEGI, which was bought out (too cheaply IMO).
Good day for CVS, ABBV, and AY so far.
Still waiting...ok to admit your opening post was wrong...
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No one is interested in playing your stupid unnatural carnal knowledgeing games. Go the unnatural carnal knowledge away and don't ruin another thread.
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No one is interested in playing your stupid unnatural carnal knowledgeing games. Go the unnatural carnal knowledge away and don't ruin another thread.
You made an accusation, you were wrong, if no one was interested, why did you state the falsehood to begin with? A simple retraction and apology is fine.
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You have a choice: you can make posts relevant to investing in this thread or you can be an argumentative dickhead and try to ruin yet another thread. History tells us which one you'll choose.
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My position in CSCO getting hammered today post-earnings. What they are saying--big slowdown in corporate spending--matches what I am seeing amongst my clients. Much longer lead times to big deals if they come through at all. Companies very cautious in their spending.
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My position in CSCO getting hammered today post-earnings. What they are saying--big slowdown in corporate spending--matches what I am seeing amongst my clients. Much longer lead times to big deals if they come through at all. Companies very cautious in their spending.
I am hearing that over and over again in earnings calls.
I don't own CSCO. Intrigued at this price point but I really haven't been buying anything lately.
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anyone here follow wallstreetbets on reddit? It is hilarious
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I bought MU for its P/E multiple.
Despite my sentiment on cyclicals, I increased my position in MU by 20% this morning, with ultimate goal to double the position over the next few weeks. The head and shoulders everyone was portending seems to be turning into the "Made 3pt" signal.
Going back to the drop in early March (which includes the early summer Hiroshima), the regression line is still tracking upward at a +30 slope.
I've been long MU for a few years now; before the tariffs, it was on its way to 80... and that was before the buyback was announced. If the China thing advances beyond #donedeal in the next 12 months (i.e. prior to the election), my guess is that the floodgates are going to open up on MU.
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I've looked at Micron a few times over the years but never thoroughly understood their business and where they were in product cycles, so I've always avoided it. Benny, what do you see as the catalyst for driving additional growth from here?
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I've looked at Micron a few times over the years but never thoroughly understood their business and where they were in product cycles, so I've always avoided it. Benny, what do you see as the catalyst for driving additional growth from here?
Long term: IoT and Level 4 automation.
Short term: End of tariffs.
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TGT over $125 now. I bought what MU82 called a troubled company well behind the leaders at $52.38... plus a nice dividend over the years. Pretty fun ride
I AM THE STOCK MARKET
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TGT over $125 now. I bought what MU82 called a troubled company well behind the leaders at $52.38... plus a nice dividend over the years. Pretty fun ride
I AM THE STOCK MARKET
Well done
How many of you are considering pulling back and sitting on the sidelines as we approach some big events in 2020?
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Well done
How many of you are considering pulling back and sitting on the sidelines as we approach some big events in 2020?
Already have been. To a fault. Thankfully some of my larger holdings (TGT, CMG) have been great, but a lot of cash on the sidelines.
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How many of you are considering pulling back and sitting on the sidelines as we approach some big events in 2020?
I've reduced my equity positions quite a bit over the last few months.
Just wish I had reduced my T position before the past couple of days....
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TGT over $125 now. I bought what MU82 called a troubled company well behind the leaders at $52.38... plus a nice dividend over the years. Pretty fun ride
I AM THE STOCK MARKET
It was a bad call, and I made it elsewhere, too.
I of course wasn't alone. Morningstar, for example, called it a poorly run company with no moat. But I absolutely have been wrong about it, and I congratulate you and others who either bought it cheap, held onto it or both.
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Schwab buying Ameritrade is interesting to say the least.
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Already have been. To a fault. Thankfully some of my larger holdings (TGT, CMG) have been great, but a lot of cash on the sidelines.
Interesting. I’ve been waiting for when the right time, after watching some tv last night of a bunch of talking bodies, I may start today.
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Schwab buying Ameritrade is interesting to say the least.
Do you use either brokerage?
As for the "cash on the sidelines" discussion ... I also have been slowly building my cash reserves. Still about 60% equities.
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Do you use either brokerage?
As for the "cash on the sidelines" discussion ... I also have been slowly building my cash reserves. Still about 60% equities.
I, too, have actually been increasing cash but am only at 15%. Timing the market has never worked for me, but the market risk seems very high to me right now.
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I, too, have actually been increasing cash but am only at 15%. Timing the market has never worked for me, but the market risk seems very high to me right now.
I think I'm quite a bit older than you, TS, and I have mostly reached my investing goals so it lets me be less aggressive than, say, my kids, who are 30-somethings. I have been "de-risking" my portfolio quite a bit the last year. Some of the cash I expect will remain on the sidelines indefinitely, perhaps forever. The stock positions I sold to get that particular cash have been "retired" in my mind. Other cash will be put back to work when I believe valuations of stocks I want to own (or own more of) are more reasonable.
So I don't really view it as market timing ... but I guess that's semantics, because one could make an argument that it is, at least in part.
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All equities baby. Only cash is in my emergency fund. I am in my early 30s. Hope the market tanks on you boomers so I can buy cheap!
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Do you use either brokerage?
As for the "cash on the sidelines" discussion ... I also have been slowly building my cash reserves. Still about 60% equities.
I don't, my brother works for E Trade, so I've used them for years.
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I think I'm quite a bit older than you, TS, and I have mostly reached my investing goals so it lets me be less aggressive than, say, my kids, who are 30-somethings. I have been "de-risking" my portfolio quite a bit the last year. Some of the cash I expect will remain on the sidelines indefinitely, perhaps forever. The stock positions I sold to get that particular cash have been "retired" in my mind. Other cash will be put back to work when I believe valuations of stocks I want to own (or own more of) are more reasonable.
So I don't really view it as market timing ... but I guess that's semantics, because one could make an argument that it is, at least in part.
This is exactly where I am. Even when I view stocks as more of a bargain, they will never again make up the lion's share of my assets.
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All equities baby. Only cash is in my emergency fund. I am in my early 30s. Hope the market tanks on you boomers so I can buy cheap!
I don't blame you.
This is exactly where I am. Even when I view stocks as more of a bargain, they will never again make up the lion's share of my assets.
Depends on how you define "lion's share." As I said, I'm still about 60% equities.
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I think I'm quite a bit older than you, TS, and I have mostly reached my investing goals so it lets me be less aggressive than, say, my kids, who are 30-somethings. I have been "de-risking" my portfolio quite a bit the last year. Some of the cash I expect will remain on the sidelines indefinitely, perhaps forever. The stock positions I sold to get that particular cash have been "retired" in my mind. Other cash will be put back to work when I believe valuations of stocks I want to own (or own more of) are more reasonable.
So I don't really view it as market timing ... but I guess that's semantics, because one could make an argument that it is, at least in part.
Yeah, I didn't intend my comment to be disparaging at all, only that *my* attempts to guess the direction of the market and adjust equities exposure have been quite poor. And I'd agree, what you are doing only partially qualifies as market timing at all.
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Yeah, I didn't intend my comment to be disparaging at all, only that *my* attempts to guess the direction of the market and adjust equities exposure have been quite poor. And I'd agree, what you are doing only partially qualifies as market timing at all.
No worries. I wasn't the slight bit offended.
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I don't blame you.
Depends on how you define "lion's share." As I said, I'm still about 60% equities.
I am well below 60% now, but might get back up to that range when the market takes a significant dip.
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World's largest hedge fund is reportedly betting on a sell-off, but founder Ray Dalio denies it
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/bridgewater-associates-bets-over-1-billion-on-wintertime-sell-off.html
The reported wager placed by Bridgewater Associates would pay off for the firm if either the S&P 500 or the Euro Stoxx 50 or both decline.
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World's largest hedge fund is reportedly betting on a sell-off, but founder Ray Dalio denies it
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/bridgewater-associates-bets-over-1-billion-on-wintertime-sell-off.html
The reported wager placed by Bridgewater Associates would pay off for the firm if either the S&P 500 or the Euro Stoxx 50 or both decline.
This is such garbage clickbait and why CNBC is better known as CNBS. Bridgewater has $160B AUM management. So they are “betting” less than 1% on a decline of the market from all time highs. It’s a reasonable and frankly small hedge against long positions. This not Michael Bury and Steve Eisman betting against the mortgage market
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This is such garbage clickbait and why CNBC is better known as CNBS. Bridgewater has $160B AUM management. So they are “betting” less than 1% on a decline of the market from all time highs. It’s a reasonable and frankly small hedge against long positions. This not Michael Bury and Steve Eisman betting against the mortgage market
The Wall Street Journal reported the hedge. Why are you insulting CNBC?
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This is such garbage clickbait and why CNBC is better known as CNBS. Bridgewater has $160B AUM management. So they are “betting” less than 1% on a decline of the market from all time highs. It’s a reasonable and frankly small hedge against long positions. This not Michael Bury and Steve Eisman betting against the mortgage market
It not a $1 billion nomnial bet.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bridgewater-bets-big-on-market-drop-11574418601
Bridgewater paid roughly $1.5 billion for the options contracts, or just about 1% of the Westport, Conn., firm’s $150 billion in assets under management, according to people familiar with the matter.
The options contracts are tied to around $100 billion worth of the indexes, said people familiar with the matter. How much the firm stands to potentially make would depend on many factors, including the magnitude of any market decline and the timing of when the firm cashes in its bet.
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So, more clickbait?
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The Wall Street Journal reported the hedge. Why are you insulting CNBC?
Because CNBC is the king of clickbait, "MARKETS IN TURMOIL" whenever the S&P drops a hundred points in a week. If you think they are hardcore financial news, and not home of entertainment surrounding the markets, idk what to tell you. Its the home of Mad Money after all.
Also, the WSJ headline clearly spells out an options bet, which implies a hedge. The CNBC headline just speaks to the worlds largest hedge fund eying a "sell off".
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Because CNBC is the king of clickbait, "MARKETS IN TURMOIL" whenever the S&P drops a hundred points in a week. If you think they are hardcore financial news, and not home of entertainment surrounding the markets, idk what to tell you. Its the home of Mad Money after all.
Also, the WSJ headline clearly spells out an options bet, which implies a hedge. The CNBC headline just speaks to the worlds largest hedge fund eying a "sell off".
Ok. Seems like you're backloading a mistake and thank you for an answer.
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Because CNBC is the king of clickbait, "MARKETS IN TURMOIL" whenever the S&P drops a hundred points in a week. If you think they are hardcore financial news, and not home of entertainment surrounding the markets, idk what to tell you. Its the home of Mad Money after all.
Also, the WSJ headline clearly spells out an options bet, which implies a hedge. The CNBC headline just speaks to the worlds largest hedge fund eying a "sell off".
What’s wrong with Mad Money? Jim Cramer has probably done more to explain and offset the misinformation Wall Street feeds the Main Street investor than the SEC. Sure, for those of us with a finance degree, the show is complete schlock, but we’re not the target audience.
Not to defend CNBC, but to be fair, just like nearly every media outlet, CNBC’s “on-screen” and “on-line” news depts. are essentially two separate, autonomous entities. So using Mad Money to discredit CNBC’s clickbaiting prowess is a page right out of Chico’s straw man and goalposting shifting playbook.
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What’s wrong with Mad Money? Jim Cramer has probably done more to explain and offset the misinformation Wall Street feeds the Main Street investor than the SEC. Sure, for those of us with a finance degree, the show is complete schlock, but we’re not the target audience.
I think it actually started with a solid foundation and good intentions, but its basically just become schlock and best, and Cramer cheerleading at worst. He borders on being a pumper. He talks out both sides of his mouth and for naive investors, its a recipe for getting destroyed because viewers treat him like gospel. Its been on for 15 years, I don't think its resembled its early form for the last 7-8.
Not to defend CNBC, but to be fair, just like nearly every media outlet, CNBC’s “on-screen” and “on-line” news depts. are essentially two separate, autonomous entities. So using Mad Money to discredit CNBC’s clickbaiting prowess is a page right out of Chico’s straw man and goalposting shifting playbook.
I have issues with CNBC in both formats, I'll happily take shots at either. Their online is clickbaity and sensationalist. Their on-air falls off a cliff as the day goes on. I actually have no problem with both "Squawk" programs. But FastMoney is a joke and we've been over Mad Money. I just think its very lacking as a financial news source that people try to portray it as in both forms.
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He borders on being a pumper. He talks out both sides of his mouth...
I don’t watch enough of the program to know if/what he’s pumping, but he regularly discloses his positions on Squawk, and if you’re talking out of both sides of your mouth, isn’t that the antithesis of pumping?
Sure, CNBC is no Bloomberg or BBC, but investing is a zero sum game. Those who win following the gospel think it’s great, those who lose think it sucks, and those on the outside try to make money by trashing everyone else. By definition, you can’t be everything to everyone.
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UTURN
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I have issues with CNBC in both formats, I'll happily take shots at either. Their online is clickbaity and sensationalist. Their on-air falls off a cliff as the day goes on. I actually have no problem with both "Squawk" programs. But FastMoney is a joke and we've been over Mad Money. I just think its very lacking as a financial news source that people try to portray it as in both forms.
Why do you bother with CNBC?
* Fox Business' ratings are over 2x CNBC.
* Bloomberg does not have ratings but it understood that it has a larger audience than CNBC.
* The streaming services of Yahoo, Schwab, TDA, and even Cheddar have more downloads than CNBC has in audience.
Sum it up and there are 5 or 6 business news outlets with larger audiences than CNBC.
CNBC is no longer a financial business show, it is an anthropology class from a previous cycle.
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I never watch CNBC. I don't see the value in doing so.
On another note ...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3522063-disney-getting-1m-new-subs-per-day
DISNEY+ GETTING 1M NEW SUBS PER DAY
Research firm Apptopia figures Disney's (NYSE:DIS) new streaming service has been downloaded a whopping 15.5M times in less than two weeks since launch.
And that's not just folks taking advantage of a free trial - the data further shows $5M of in-app purchases.
The early numbers suggest Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has a "legit competitor," says Wedbush's Dan Ives. "The pricing, the content and the bundling was just a pure genius strategy from Iger and Disney."
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I never watch CNBC. I don't see the value in doing so.
On another note ...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3522063-disney-getting-1m-new-subs-per-day
DISNEY+ GETTING 1M NEW SUBS PER DAY
Research firm Apptopia figures Disney's (NYSE:DIS) new streaming service has been downloaded a whopping 15.5M times in less than two weeks since launch.
And that's not just folks taking advantage of a free trial - the data further shows $5M of in-app purchases.
The early numbers suggest Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has a "legit competitor," says Wedbush's Dan Ives. "The pricing, the content and the bundling was just a pure genius strategy from Iger and Disney."
I have hulu for I believe $7/mo and ESPN+ for $5/mo.
I can bundle those with Disney+ for $12.99/mo. Seems like a no brainer. Will be doing it soon.
I figure there are a lot of people doing the same thing.
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I have hulu for I believe $7/mo and ESPN+ for $5/mo.
I can bundle those with Disney+ for $12.99/mo. Seems like a no brainer. Will be doing it soon.
I figure there are a lot of people doing the same thing.
It's hard to imagine any family that has kids and sports fans wouldn't get tremendous benefit from Disney+ at this price point. It was outstanding strategy by Disney, and definitely could take a large bite out of Netflix. The industry is changing rapidly, though, so we'll see who does what next.
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Why do you bother with CNBC?
* Fox Business' ratings are over 2x CNBC.
* Bloomberg does not have ratings but it understood that it has a larger audience than CNBC.
* The streaming services of Yahoo, Schwab, TDA, and even Cheddar have more downloads than CNBC has in audience.
Sum it up and there are 5 or 6 business news outlets with larger audiences than CNBC.
CNBC is no longer a financial business show, it is an anthropology class from a previous cycle.
I don't anymore. It was just a comment on the programming and how I feel about it. I'm not watching it every day cursing it.
As for DIS, the Disney+ bundling is one of the first times in awhile it feels like Disney is truly taking advantage of and monetizing their gargantuan media presence. Its truly extremely well done and a monster "all ages" spread that puts a shock into Netflix.
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CNBC got some hunnies tho
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100th record high today in last three years.
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I don't anymore. It was just a comment on the programming and how I feel about it. I'm not watching it every day cursing it.
As for DIS, the Disney+ bundling is one of the first times in awhile it feels like Disney is truly taking advantage of and monetizing their gargantuan media presence. Its truly extremely well done and a monster "all ages" spread that puts a shock into Netflix.
We will see...we don’t think it hits all ages for long. It’s wonderful for younger demo, but once you have seen the stuff for everyone else, will they have a churn issue? In other words, is there enough content for other demos long term? Will be interesting to see their churn numbers in a few months. The pricing will help buttress that considerably if it simply becomes a “gym “ membership and people let it ride. They won’t share their usage info other than very high level.
What isn’t being talked about is their backend drop.
Let me give you an example. They have about 85 million customers that pay them for ESPN right now at about $8 a month...even though 50% of those folks don’t watch ESPN. Easy math let’s say about $7.6 billion annually. Now, as people cut the cord and no longer have ESPN in their tv bundle, only those that truly care about sports will pay. ESPN will have to price it at a premium to get that same level of revenue or they don’t and just write off the revenue to get market share. Those are the fun decisions everyone is grappling with right now in our industry.
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CNBC got some hunnies tho
Try Fox Business
(https://cdn.ebaumsworld.com/mediaFiles/picture/2324223/84299144.jpg)
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Would strongly encourage all to get into AMRN, ASAP - as in Monday. I put 50% of my portfolio into it back in July and used another 25% to buy the dips the last 5 months for dollar cost average of $18 per share.
AMRN's Vascepa will revolutionize the way we treat heart disease, diabetes, strokes, and potentially dementia.
Other strong biotech play: IGMS
Stock I took a flier on and kind of like is WRTC.
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Would strongly encourage all to get into AMRN, ASAP - as in Monday. I put 50% of my portfolio into it back in July and used another 25% to buy the dips the last 5 months for dollar cost average of $18 per share.
AMRN's Vascepa will revolutionize the way we treat heart disease, diabetes, strokes, and potentially dementia.
Other strong biotech play: IGMS
Stock I took a flier on and kind of like is WRTC.
AMRN is at ATH, are they dropping some news on Monday or what?
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AMRN is at ATH, are they dropping some news on Monday or what?
They halted stock from trading Friday at 1:06 EST due to pending announcement of broadened FDA approval for their drug. Released news 5:00EST Friday, resumed trading at 5:30 EST in After Hours...up another $2.66 after hours - but institutional investors were on sidelines. Only 3 million shares changed hands after hours.
This company is very likely to get bought out in next 6 months, but also very well prepared to go it alone.
They doubled revenue from $200M in 2018 to on track for $410M in 2019, with only and indication to treat patients with triglycerides over 500 (which is crazy high and small market.) What came out Friday lowered that figure to 150, and also was suggested to be indicated for diabetics, and stroke patients.
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They halted stock from trading Friday at 1:06 EST due to pending announcement of broadened FDA approval for their drug. Released news 5:00EST Friday, resumed trading at 5:30 EST in After Hours...up another $2.66 after hours - but institutional investors were on sidelines. Only 3 million shares changed hands after hours.
This company is very likely to get bought out in next 6 months, but also very well prepared to go it alone.
They doubled revenue from $200M in 2018 to on track for $410M in 2019, with only and indication to treat patients with triglycerides over 500 (which is crazy high and small market.) What came out Friday lowered that figure to 150, and also was suggested to be indicated for diabetics, and stroke patients.
The Oppenheimer analyst raised his price target to....$8?? That's pretty weird
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The Oppenheimer analyst raised his price target to....$8?? That's pretty weird
Isn’t it at $23 now?
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Isn’t it at $23 now?
Yep...Down over 4%.
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The Oppenheimer analyst raised his price target to....$8?? That's pretty weird
It's is very weird. He came out with a hit piece about 5 weeks ago with a $7 price target. Take a look at his track record. He's a shill that ultimately helps cover shorts, and works to orchestrate price drop. Oppenheimer is actually loaded up on AMRN institutionally. Evaluate his price target against other analysts.
I do think yesterday's action was institutions shaking out weak hands to load up more shares for themselves. This company is ripe to be acquired, or go it alone and show great metrics going forward.
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Down almost 12% for the week. Pump and dump?
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Vascepa is just prescription EPA... ie, fish oil. If you had a tolerance and budget for mass doses (2-4 g of EPA) you could recreate that drug at GNC. While I buy the science and benefit of the treatment, I have some lingering doubts that calling super high dose fish oil a prescription drug is a viable economic model. But, to be honest, I haven't dug too deeply into how they propose to do distribution/pricing, so maybe their play is to try to foist the cost onto he insurance industry?
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Down almost 12% for the week. Pump and dump?
I bought back in today. I'd be shocked if this isn't trading at $40 within 12 months, if not bought out sooner. Weak retail hands sold the last two days. Some of which have had positions at the $2 level, so can't blame them. However, the institutions want in, now that product is completely de-risked.
Vascepa is just prescription EPA... ie, fish oil. If you had a tolerance and budget for mass doses (2-4 g of EPA) you could recreate that drug at GNC. While I buy the science and benefit of the treatment, I have some lingering doubts that calling super high dose fish oil a prescription drug is a viable economic model. But, to be honest, I haven't dug too deeply into how they propose to do distribution/pricing, so maybe their play is to try to foist the cost onto he insurance industry?
This will be part of the education process of sales force, and PR staff - as this is common perception. Vascepa is derived from fish oil, but it is purified, 100% EPA (no DHA). Taking OTC Fish Oil will NOT reduce your CV risk, and has actually been shown to have negative risk factors.
**Having said all of the above, there of course are no guarantees in investing, yet from my very deep due diligence on this stock/drug, I am quite confident it will be a near and long term winner.**
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I bought back in today. I'd be shocked if this isn't trading at $40 within 12 months, if not bought out sooner. Weak retail hands sold the last two days. Some of which have had positions at the $2 level, so can't blame them. However, the institutions want in, now that product is completely de-risked.
This will be part of the education process of sales force, and PR staff - as this is common perception. Vascepa is derived from fish oil, but it is purified, 100% EPA (no DHA). Taking OTC Fish Oil will NOT reduce your CV risk, and has actually been shown to have negative risk factors.
**Having said all of the above, there of course are no guarantees in investing, yet from my very deep due diligence on this stock/drug, I am quite confident it will be a near and long term winner.**
Especially when you define risk for OTC fish oil differently than you define risk for any prescription CV drug/therapy.
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I bought back in today.
Hold on, "back in"? So after telling up that you had put 75% of your portfolio in this and urging everyone to buy ASAP on Monday morning, you are now claiming that you actually sold? And therefore, despite what you said here, miraculously avoided the (.75*-.1464) = 10.98% loss of your total portfolio value since the close on Friday?
Weak retail hands sold the last two days.
Including yourself, from what you said above?
From the admittedly limited DD I did, it appears that the new label was narrower than anticipated, and therefore the addressable market and potential revenue smaller than hoped for as well. It appears to be a classic buy the rumor, sell the news situation, particularly if the news is less than what was anticipated and the run up was huge, as this one was.
However, the institutions want in, now that product is completely de-risked.
And this is based on what information? Certainly buyers have had ample opportunity to buy in with the more than 14% drop since Friday.
Look, I have no opinion on the long-term prospects for this stock. It may very well be long-term winner and you will be right, I haven't done enough DD nor do I understand the addressable market or competitors well enough to warrant an opinion. But pumping the stock, than claiming you actually sold the stock only to buy in lower and coming up with a bunch of rationalizations about why it went down is a recipe for bad investing. I've made a LOT of investing mistakes, and it is a lot better to figure out what went wrong rather than repeat the disasters.
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Hold on, "back in"? So after telling up that you had put 75% of your portfolio in this and urging everyone to buy ASAP on Monday morning, you are now claiming that you actually sold? And therefore, despite what you said here, miraculously avoided the (.75*-.1464) = 10.98% loss of your total portfolio value since the close on Friday?
Including yourself, from what you said above?
From the admittedly limited DD I did, it appears that the new label was narrower than anticipated, and therefore the addressable market and potential revenue smaller than hoped for as well. It appears to be a classic buy the rumor, sell the news situation, particularly if the news is less than what was anticipated and the run up was huge, as this one was.
And this is based on what information? Certainly buyers have had ample opportunity to buy in with the more than 14% drop since Friday.
Look, I have no opinion on the long-term prospects for this stock. It may very well be long-term winner and you will be right, I haven't done enough DD nor do I understand the addressable market or competitors well enough to warrant an opinion. But pumping the stock, than claiming you actually sold the stock only to buy in lower and coming up with a bunch of rationalizations about why it went down is a recipe for bad investing. I've made a LOT of investing mistakes, and it is a lot better to figure out what went wrong rather than repeat the disasters.
Clarification. I bought more today - haven't sold any since beginning to accumulate back in July. Bought the dip today, just as I have done the past 6 months. Simple dollar cost averaging.
Appreciate your sentiments. The challenge for some in media is to understand the actual science and what the new expanded label does allow for. They are misinterpreting how broad the label is, as it is confusing to those first reading/following this stock - particularly when not having a medical background (which I don't have either.)
I feel bad the stock has crashed as much as it has since making the post. I stand firm in my conviction that this will be a big winner, however. Time will tell.
Regarding the shake out happening, the markets don't always function fairly. Lots at play here. There were 45 million shares short as of November 30th. Many hedge funds will take short positions, knowing they can cover. This is a prime acquisition target in that the TAM is large, the science is real, side effects nil, patent protected through 2029, and they have a strong balance sheet with ~$500M cash on hand.
Look at trading volume the last two days - way beyond averages, and remember for every share traded has been bought by someone. So...lots of buyers (my hunch is that it is institutions loading up while covering shorts). Retail ownership was 52% in this stock.
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Clarification. I bought more today - haven't sold any since beginning to accumulate back in July. Bought the dip today, just as I have done the past 6 months. Simple dollar cost averaging.
Got it. Sorry I misunderstood.
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Got it. Sorry I misunderstood.
No worries. I'd have interpreted it the same...worded that poorly in my haste. And, I should point out I very well could be wrong about AMRN. Your points certainly have merit. This is a case where I have done a lot of DD, and feel pretty comfortable and plan to hold long term.
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Hold on, "back in"? So after telling up that you had put 75% of your portfolio in this and urging everyone to buy ASAP on Monday morning, you are now claiming that you actually sold? And therefore, despite what you said here, miraculously avoided the (.75*-.1464) = 10.98% loss of your total portfolio value since the close on Friday?
Including yourself, from what you said above?
From the admittedly limited DD I did, it appears that the new label was narrower than anticipated, and therefore the addressable market and potential revenue smaller than hoped for as well. It appears to be a classic buy the rumor, sell the news situation, particularly if the news is less than what was anticipated and the run up was huge, as this one was.
And this is based on what information? Certainly buyers have had ample opportunity to buy in with the more than 14% drop since Friday.
Look, I have no opinion on the long-term prospects for this stock. It may very well be long-term winner and you will be right, I haven't done enough DD nor do I understand the addressable market or competitors well enough to warrant an opinion. But pumping the stock, than claiming you actually sold the stock only to buy in lower and coming up with a bunch of rationalizations about why it went down is a recipe for bad investing. I've made a LOT of investing mistakes, and it is a lot better to figure out what went wrong rather than repeat the disasters.
Where does he say he sold anything?
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No worries. I'd have interpreted it the same...worded that poorly in my haste. And, I should point out I very well could be wrong about AMRN. Your points certainly have merit. This is a case where I have done a lot of DD, and feel pretty comfortable and plan to hold long term.
If you are right, and they expand the indications, you'll have a multi-bag winner, which is what we all live for in investing. Good luck!
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If you are right, and they expand the indications, you'll have a multi-bag winner, which is what we all live for in investing. Good luck!
Thanks. This one apparently will test my patience. I unfortunately like to trade a bit, and like the action - and have sold out of some major winners the past couple of years. Went heavy into LULU at $50/share in May of 2017, now at $225. Progressively sold my position at $75, $100, $125. Got into SHOP back in January at $152, sold all of it one month later at $210. It's now at $400.
So...lessons learned...be patient. My investment thesis on LULU and SHOP was based on a lot of due diligence and personal experience with both companies.
Hope AMRN doesn't turn out to be the one where I remain patient, but turns out to be a slow mover.
**Helpful tip in BioTech - google the Baker Brothers - and look at their 13F's. They have incredible track record investing in BioTech. They are big in AMRN.**
https://fintel.io/i13f/baker-bros-advisors-lp/2019-09-30-0
Here is a great link to where you can sort their positions by status - new, etc.
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/baker-bros-advisors-llc#tabholdings_tab_link
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Anyone know a cost effective way to buy foreign stocks? My Fidelity account doesn't let me trade on certain exchanges, but I've found a few stocks that come through my filter on foreign exchanges (high dividend yield, sustainable, good management, etc.).
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Interactive Brokers I think
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Interactive Brokers I think
Thanks
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Markets all time record high again
Merry Christmas
Happy Hanukkah
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The attached graph, curtesy of Chuck Carnevale found here https://seekingalpha.com/article/4313396-investing-is-hard-enough-is-how-to-avoid-making-obvious-mistakes?ifp=0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4313396-investing-is-hard-enough-is-how-to-avoid-making-obvious-mistakes?ifp=0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha) is one reason I am bullish on CVS. I think it is one of the rare undervalued stocks here, with FV around $90. They have made good progress paying down the debt from their merger already (have paid off $8B), and if they keep executing the dividend should resume increases in 2021.
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Would strongly encourage all to get into AMRN, ASAP - as in Monday. I put 50% of my portfolio into it back in July and used another 25% to buy the dips the last 5 months for dollar cost average of $18 per share.
AMRN's Vascepa will revolutionize the way we treat heart disease, diabetes, strokes, and potentially dementia.
Other strong biotech play: IGMS
Stock I took a flier on and kind of like is WRTC.
Still confident on AMRN, but hope some took a look at/bought IGMS - was trading at $28.20 at close on Friday the 13th...at 44.00 now.
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I asked earlier if people were pulling back, finding safe harbor with more stable investments.
CNN released a poll today on consumer sentiment, 76% say economy is good...hasn't been that high per CNN since 2001. I'm seeing some firms predicting stock market hits 35,000 in 2020 while others predicting a major reset. Torn on what to do at the moment.
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Been quite a year-plus for Boeing.
The crashes ... the lies about the 737 Max ... finally the begrudging admissions about the 737 Max ... the repeated false starts pertaining to "the 737 Max is almost ready to come back" ... the canceling of tons of orders for the plane ... Airbus making hay on Boeing's woes ... the botched space mission that had to be aborted last week ... and now today, CEO Dennis Muilenburg is out.
I had been very fortunate with my BA position. It wasn't anywhere near the top of my watch list when in Feb 2016, it was announced that the SEC would be looking into the company for accounting issues. That drove the already-low price of the stock down near 100, and I thought it was too good a value to ignore; I bought my stake at 115. I held it through the start of the 737 Max stuff but decided in March to take my profits, selling around 390.
It's now at 328, more than 100 points off its all-time high. Frankly, the fact that it hasn't fallen even harder after all of its problems is pretty telling about the company's fundamental strength.
When I sold, I figured BA eventually would have true good news ... and when it happens, the price probably will recover and then some. But I was sick of the drama and I didn't really "need" it in my portfolio. (FWIW, my daughter bought her stake about the same time I did -- even better price, 110 -- and she hasn't sold hers.)
Not giving any advice about whether others should buy, sell or hold here, as I don't know anybody else's goals, risk tolerance levels, circumstances, etc.
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Been quite a year-plus for Boeing.
The crashes ... the lies about the 737 Max ... finally the begrudging admissions about the 737 Max ... the repeated false starts pertaining to "the 737 Max is almost ready to come back" ... the canceling of tons of orders for the plane ... Airbus making hay on Boeing's woes ... the botched space mission that had to be aborted last week ... and now today, CEO Dennis Muilenburg is out.
I had been very fortunate with my BA position. It wasn't anywhere near the top of my watch list when in Feb 2016, it was announced that the SEC would be looking into the company for accounting issues. That drove the already-low price of the stock down near 100, and I thought it was too good a value to ignore; I bought my stake at 115. I held it through the start of the 737 Max stuff but decided in March to take my profits, selling around 390.
It's now at 328, more than 100 points off its all-time high. Frankly, the fact that it hasn't fallen even harder after all of its problems is pretty telling about the company's fundamental strength.
When I sold, I figured BA eventually would have true good news ... and when it happens, the price probably will recover and then some. But I was sick of the drama and I didn't really "need" it in my portfolio. (FWIW, my daughter bought her stake about the same time I did -- even better price, 110 -- and she hasn't sold hers.)
Not giving any advice about whether others should buy, sell or hold here, as I don't know anybody else's goals, risk tolerance levels, circumstances, etc.
The NYT story on the CEO yesterday was pretty brutal.
I think this story on how the culture of the company went south when they moved their headquarters to Chicago was an interesting read.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/how-boeing-lost-its-bearings/602188/
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The NYT story on the CEO yesterday was pretty brutal.
I think this story on how the culture of the company went south when they moved their headquarters to Chicago was an interesting read.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/how-boeing-lost-its-bearings/602188/
That was a good read, Sultan, thanks for the link. I don't know that moving the corporate office necessarily hurt the company, but it's certainly an interesting topic.
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News isn't all bad for the failed Boeing CEO:
He will receive a severance package of $40M and an $800K annual pension ... so at least he'll be able to feed Latrell Sprewell's family.
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News isn't all bad for the failed Boeing CEO:
He will receive a severance package of $40M and an $800K annual pension ... so at least he'll be able to feed Latrell Sprewell's family.
Did he fail though? This is certainly a scandal and a black eye for the company, but if you look at the financial performance of BA during his tenure, he was a massive success.
When he took over as CEO in mid 2015 and then became chairman in early 2016, the stock price vascillated in the 125-150 range. It ran up to 450 recently, and even now after a hefty haircut, its still more than doubled in less than 5 years in charge.
Revenue's were up, but more significantly, Net Income doubled in less than 4 years and EBITDA is up 50+%.
That says to me he was an effective and successful CEO who got greedy and arrogant and made a major blunder that led to his downfall. He was also president leading up to his promotion and head of a major division prior to that, so its not like he just fell into a plum situation like Tyronne Lue.
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The NYT story on the CEO yesterday was pretty brutal.
I think this story on how the culture of the company went south when they moved their headquarters to Chicago was an interesting read.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/how-boeing-lost-its-bearings/602188/
Yup, finance driven decisions can be good, but also have the ability to suck the life out of a company. Been there, done that...living it now.
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Did he fail though? This is certainly a scandal and a black eye for the company, but if you look at the financial performance of BA during his tenure, he was a massive success.
When he took over as CEO in mid 2015 and then became chairman in early 2016, the stock price vascillated in the 125-150 range. It ran up to 450 recently, and even now after a hefty haircut, its still more than doubled in less than 5 years in charge.
Revenue's were up, but more significantly, Net Income doubled in less than 4 years and EBITDA is up 50+%.
That says to me he was an effective and successful CEO who got greedy and arrogant and made a major blunder that led to his downfall. He was also president leading up to his promotion and head of a major division prior to that, so its not like he just fell into a plum situation like Tyronne Lue.
A lot of companies stocks rose after late 2016. Sometimes short term gains that furt the company long term aren’t recognized by management in their ivory tower.
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Did he fail though? This is certainly a scandal and a black eye for the company, but if you look at the financial performance of BA during his tenure, he was a massive success.
When he took over as CEO in mid 2015 and then became chairman in early 2016, the stock price vascillated in the 125-150 range. It ran up to 450 recently, and even now after a hefty haircut, its still more than doubled in less than 5 years in charge.
Revenue's were up, but more significantly, Net Income doubled in less than 4 years and EBITDA is up 50+%.
That says to me he was an effective and successful CEO who got greedy and arrogant and made a major blunder that led to his downfall. He was also president leading up to his promotion and head of a major division prior to that, so its not like he just fell into a plum situation like Tyronne Lue.
His company had both successes and failures under his watch. This last failure resulted in hundreds of dead human beings, refusal to accept responsibility for the tragedy until he could no longer get away with the lie, and fundamentally poor response to the travesty. This last year-plus under him, his company lost market share to Airbus, in addition to reputation and goodwill.
I am an optimist who tends to see the glass as half-full more times than not. As both an observer and former Boeing shareholder, it is very difficult for me to see this particular glass as anything but half-empty.
Having said that, I will repeat what I said earlier: Under new management, once the 737 Max problem does finally get solved, I wouldn't be surprised to see Boeing reach new heights. Of course, a recession would hurt that very cyclical industry more than many, but eventually they will be OK.
Still a $40M golden parachute and $800K annually for life for one who oversaw the horrors that guy did ... well ... nobody said life was fair.
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His company had both successes and failures under his watch. This last failure resulted in hundreds of dead human beings, refusal to accept responsibility for the tragedy until he could no longer get away with the lie, and fundamentally poor response to the travesty. This last year-plus under him, his company lost market share to Airbus, in addition to reputation and goodwill.
I am an optimist who tends to see the glass as half-full more times than not. As both an observer and former Boeing shareholder, it is very difficult for me to see this particular glass as anything but half-empty.
Having said that, I will repeat what I said earlier: Under new management, once the 737 Max problem does finally get solved, I wouldn't be surprised to see Boeing reach new heights. Of course, a recession would hurt that very cyclical industry more than many, but eventually they will be OK.
Still a $40M golden parachute and $800K annually for life for one who oversaw the horrors that guy did ... well ... nobody said life was fair.
I honestly think his failures are of a moral and human interest nature than a business one. And I know you're not being purposefully dramatic, but I think speaking to any large loss of goodwill for Boeing is exaggerated. Are airline and passengers wary and evasive when it comes to the 737 MAX? Absolutely. Is this spreading to other Boeing jets and models? In my experience and reading, no. In fact, many airlines halting their MAX orders are swapping to other Boeing models. Thats near term. Longer term, we've all learned how quickly things are forgotten. Not saying its right, but in 2021-2022, nobody is going to be side eying Boeing from a commercial or stock standpoint as a result of this. Airbus gained market share because their Neo product, that competes with the MAX, had no issues. So in a 2 horse race, if one horse is down on the track with a broken leg, the other horse will easily win even if its a donkey.
In a court of ethics and human sense, Muilenburg has no leg to stand on. But when it comes to payouts based on financial performance, he has more in common with the aging CEO put out to pasture than the one who has a golden parachute despite running the company into the ground/bankruptcy. In fact, the notion that BA will be able to rebound and succeed again in short order once appropriate heads have rolled, is a testament to the work the management team had done the last 4 years.
I'm not a shareholder, im not a fan of his, and I think their handling of this whole thing has been shameful and unrepresentative of one of the fine, best in class American companies. But a ton of money was made, legitimately and without drama, before this all happened, and thus I still understand why payouts wouldn't be withheld from a viewpoint of shareholder expectations and returns being met.
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I honestly think his failures are of a moral and human interest nature than a business one. And I know you're not being purposefully dramatic, but I think speaking to any large loss of goodwill for Boeing is exaggerated. Are airline and passengers wary and evasive when it comes to the 737 MAX? Absolutely. Is this spreading to other Boeing jets and models? In my experience and reading, no. In fact, many airlines halting their MAX orders are swapping to other Boeing models. Thats near term. Longer term, we've all learned how quickly things are forgotten. Not saying its right, but in 2021-2022, nobody is going to be side eying Boeing from a commercial or stock standpoint as a result of this. Airbus gained market share because their Neo product, that competes with the MAX, had no issues. So in a 2 horse race, if one horse is down on the track with a broken leg, the other horse will easily win even if its a donkey.
In a court of ethics and human sense, Muilenburg has no leg to stand on. But when it comes to payouts based on financial performance, he has more in common with the aging CEO put out to pasture than the one who has a golden parachute despite running the company into the ground/bankruptcy. In fact, the notion that BA will be able to rebound and succeed again in short order once appropriate heads have rolled, is a testament to the work the management team had done the last 4 years.
I'm not a shareholder, im not a fan of his, and I think their handling of this whole thing has been shameful and unrepresentative of one of the fine, best in class American companies. But a ton of money was made, legitimately and without drama, before this all happened, and thus I still understand why payouts wouldn't be withheld from a viewpoint of shareholder expectations and returns being met.
Interesting take, and we agree on much. Thanks for the discussion.
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I agree with your take 82, I don't think sentiment has bottomed on BA yet. If the share price falls under $300 I might be interested enough to take a deeper dive.
On the other hand, GE seems to me to have finally cleared enough rubble away to have a path forward. It might still be rocky and uneven at times, but I think the worm has turned there.
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Merril Lynch investment president believes another 20% growth in stock market for 2020.
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AQST has a lot going for them, and is a breakout candidate for 2020.
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CITI now saying 90% chance stock markets will perform higher in 2020. That will make some folks cringe....half of millennials sitting on the sidelines.
https://apple.news/AnH6Buiu6QpeIj3vxfHjJGQ
https://apple.news/ATBGDIMvaTt2mrt3WoYbdOA
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Apple stock hit $300 for the first time!
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Somebody told me it was dead money at $92 per share.
Glad I didn't listen to him.
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Despite my sentiment on cyclicals, I increased my position in MU by 20% this morning, with ultimate goal to double the position over the next few weeks. The head and shoulders everyone was portending seems to be turning into the "Made 3pt" signal.
Going back to the drop in early March (which includes the early summer Hiroshima), the regression line is still tracking upward at a +30 slope.
I've been long MU for a few years now; before the tariffs, it was on its way to 80... and that was before the buyback was announced. If the China thing advances beyond #donedeal in the next 12 months (i.e. prior to the election), my guess is that the floodgates are going to open up on MU.
MU rah-rah, MU rah-rah-rah-rah-rah.
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MU rah-rah, MU rah-rah-rah-rah-rah.
Nice call, congrats.
Wait, is that action strictly on an analyst upgrade?
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Who’s playing a nifty strategy with AYX?
open October 30... $92.39
Today.. $110.86
20% proper
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Nice call, congrats.
Wait, is that action strictly on an analyst upgrade?
I don't know for certain that it's tied to the analyst's upgrade, but there's a lot of buzz around CES right now in the DRAM space. MU also released an announcement after-hours yesterday on their DDR5 chip, which itself is a significant innovation, but what I think caught people off-guard is the realization that there's more hardware supporting DDR5 than originally suspected, which seems to hint towards accelerated adoption.
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I don't know for certain that it's tied to the analyst's upgrade, but there's a lot of buzz around CES right now in the DRAM space. MU also released an announcement after-hours yesterday on their DDR5 chip, which itself is a significant innovation, but what I think caught people off-guard is the realization that there's more hardware supporting DDR5 than originally suspected, which seems to hint towards accelerated adoption.
I'm seeing that the upgrade was coupled with a better than expected projection from Microchip (though still a -4% growth forecast rather than -5%, so not exactly rosy).
Welp, I bought 1/24 56 strike puts at the end of the day. I have a feeling I could be on the short end in early trading tomorrow but hoping for a little very short term revision to the mean/profit taking on the pop. Hope to close it out in the next day or two, certainly by Friday. The worst I can do is a 100% loss in 16 days. :)
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I'm seeing that the upgrade was coupled with a better than expected projection from Microchip (though still a -4% growth forecast rather than -5%, so not exactly rosy).
Welp, I bought 1/24 56 strike puts at the end of the day. I have a feeling I could be on the short end in early trading tomorrow but hoping for a little very short term revision to the mean/profit taking on the pop. Hope to close it out in the next day or two, certainly by Friday. The worst I can do is a 100% loss in 16 days. :)
Not a bad buy at ~.18
MU has been no stranger to volatility from day to day. Neither has Micron.
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Not a bad buy at ~.18
MU has been no stranger to volatility from day to day. Neither has Micron.
Just closed the position with a 20.6% gain.
MU looks intriguing longer term, I might consider opening a small long position. Good luck with it!
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Wow, the emails and other communications between Boeing employees concerning the 737 Max are damning.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-737max/boeing-releases-internal-messages-on-737-max-calls-them-completely-unacceptable-idUSKBN1Z902N?il=0
In an instant messaging exchange on Feb. 8, 2018 - when the plane was in the air and eight months before the first of two fatal crashes, an employee asks another: “Would you put your family on a MAX simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn’t”.
And in a May 2018 message, an unnamed Boeing employee said: “I still haven’t been forgiven by god for the covering up I did last year.”
Etc etc
Frankly, it is incredible that Boeing stock has not tanked by 50% or more. I am very glad I sold mine at around $400. I usually shrug at "noise," but this company is surrounded by more than just noise, and I didn't need the day-to-day drama in my portfolio.
Bigger picture, I feel terrible for the families whose lives have been ruined by this company.
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Smart trade 82.
I had someone pitch Boeing to me over the summer with the premise that it would bounce back once the MAX issues were fixed. My response was "let's see them fix the engineering issues FIRST".
Looks like the bad engineering was a feature, not a bug.
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It certainly could bounce back. Indeed, I would imagine that when it all finally is fixed, it will.
But how low can it go first?
More than that, does an investor have the willingness to monitor such a company in his/her portfolio and the patience to deal with the constant drumbeat of bad news?
I am a long-term investor, generally a buy-and-holdish kind of guy. I had BA since early 2016, bought it at $115. I decided a few months back that I no longer "needed" BA so I took my profits.
FWIW, my daughter, who bought BA around the same time I did (at an even better price -- 110), is still holding. She HATES selling anything, and that generally has made for very nice performance of her portfolio.
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Wow, the emails and other communications between Boeing employees concerning the 737 Max are damning.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-737max/boeing-releases-internal-messages-on-737-max-calls-them-completely-unacceptable-idUSKBN1Z902N?il=0
In an instant messaging exchange on Feb. 8, 2018 - when the plane was in the air and eight months before the first of two fatal crashes, an employee asks another: “Would you put your family on a MAX simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn’t”.
And in a May 2018 message, an unnamed Boeing employee said: “I still haven’t been forgiven by god for the covering up I did last year.”
C'mon 82... you're a freakin' journalist. I know you can see past through the BS and misdirection.
“Would you put your family on a MAX simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn’t”
Ask yourself this: Why would they train the aircraft in a simulator? Hell, how would they fit the airplane into the simulator?
FFS, these are engineers... they have their own language that cannot be taken at face value by a layperson. What is most likely being said here is either:
a) "Would you put your family in a plane flown by a crew without training in the MAX simulator" -or-
b) "Would you put your family in a plane flown by a crew who has only trained in the MAX simulator (i.e. has not actually flown the plane IRL"
Both of the above are fair questions. Both of the above could be cause for concern to some people. But neither suggests that something is wrong... some people simply have a fear of flying, even aerospace engineers (yes, there are actually aviation enthusiasts who have a fear of flying, imagine that).
Hell, we don't even know what the author's role is. But what we do know is the FAA doesn't require simulator training at all (this will likely be changed). In fact, most airlines don't even have a MAX simulator.
In any event, this text is - at best - being taken out of context or - at worst - a deep fake. Along with the "God hasn't forgiven me for covering up" text. Covering what up? That you stole someone's diabetic lunch from the cafeteria? That you gang-banged your wife's cousin? That you saw a co-worker piss in the water cooler?
Garbage in, garbage out.
Full Disclaimer: I closed all positions in BA completely several months ago. I won't go back in until the MAX is re-certified, I already have enough exposure to this shiiteshow with my GE positions.
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C'mon 82... you're a freakin' journalist. I know you can see past through the BS and misdirection.
“Would you put your family on a MAX simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn’t”
Ask yourself this: Why would they train the aircraft in a simulator? Hell, how would they fit the airplane into the simulator?
FFS, these are engineers... they have their own language that cannot be taken at face value by a layperson. What is most likely being said here is either:
a) "Would you put your family in a plane flown by a crew without training in the MAX simulator" -or-
b) "Would you put your family in a plane flown by a crew who has only trained in the MAX simulator (i.e. has not actually flown the plane IRL"
Both of the above are fair questions. Both of the above could be cause for concern to some people. But neither suggests that something is wrong... some people simply have a fear of flying, even aerospace engineers (yes, there are actually aviation enthusiasts who have a fear of flying, imagine that).
Hell, we don't even know what the author's role is. But what we do know is the FAA doesn't require simulator training at all (this will likely be changed). In fact, most airlines don't even have a MAX simulator.
In any event, this text is - at best - being taken out of context or - at worst - a deep fake. Along with the "God hasn't forgiven me for covering up" text. Covering what up? That you stole someone's diabetic lunch from the cafeteria? That you gang-banged your wife's cousin? That you saw a co-worker piss in the water cooler?
Garbage in, garbage out.
Full Disclaimer: I closed all positions in BA completely several months ago. I won't go back in until the MAX is re-certified, I already have enough exposure to this shiiteshow with my GE positions.
OK.
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Wow, the emails and other communications between Boeing employees concerning the 737 Max are damning.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-737max/boeing-releases-internal-messages-on-737-max-calls-them-completely-unacceptable-idUSKBN1Z902N?il=0
In an instant messaging exchange on Feb. 8, 2018 - when the plane was in the air and eight months before the first of two fatal crashes, an employee asks another: “Would you put your family on a MAX simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn’t”.
And in a May 2018 message, an unnamed Boeing employee said: “I still haven’t been forgiven by god for the covering up I did last year.”
Etc etc
Frankly, it is incredible that Boeing stock has not tanked by 50% or more. I am very glad I sold mine at around $400. I usually shrug at "noise," but this company is surrounded by more than just noise, and I didn't need the day-to-day drama in my portfolio.
Bigger picture, I feel terrible for the families whose lives have been ruined by this company.
Ironically when an employee of American Airlines, a mechanic, tried to sabotage a plane and was asked by law enforcement of he would allow his family members on the plane (he said no) that wasn’t so damning by some here.
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Take your crap elsewhere and don't get another investing thread shut down.
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Wayfair stock.
Poised to make a comeback in 2020?
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The person I really feel terrible for is the former Boeing CEO.
In addition to knowing he played a role in the deaths of hundreds of people, he has to get by on a departure package of only about $62 million.
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The person I really feel terrible for is the former Boeing CEO.
In addition to knowing he played a role in the deaths of hundreds of people, he has to get by on a departure package of only about $62 million.
#FakeNews
#Lies
The $62 million is NOT a departure package. Complete and total lie.
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#FakeNews
#Lies
The $62 million is NOT a departure package. Complete and total lie.
https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-muilenburg-payout-same-time-thousands-layoffs-2020-1
The recently-fired CEO of Boeing is leaving the company with a package worth $62 million, the company said Friday — just hours after 2,800 workers lost their jobs over the 737 Max disaster.
Payout details for Dennis Muilenburg, who was ousted from Boeing in late December, were made public in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Muilenburg lost his job over Boeing's disastrous handling of two fatal crashes by the 737 Max in which 346 people died.
The jet was grounded ten months ago, in March 2019. It has no firm date to return to service and Boeing has stopped building new ones.
On his departure, Boeing stripped him of his bonus, any severance pay, and other incentives worth nearly $15 million.
However, that still left him with a parting package of $62 million made up of Boeing stock, pension payments, and other deferred contributions.
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Yes, that is completely false. There is no $62 milliion departing package. Read SEC filings, understand what they mean, and understand that journalists are dumb.
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Yes, that is completely false. There is no $62 milliion departing package. Read SEC filings, understand what they mean, and understand that journalists are dumb.
What do they mean?
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What do they mean?
It means no departing package.
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What do they mean?
Not 100% certain, but these things aren’t always a golden parachutes or severance.... it could be stock or options awards that vest or exercise after a given period of time or upon departure (whichever occurs first); less likely, could be an automatic sale of stock (or election to sell after a lockout expires); it could be deferred or unpaid compensation, etc.
In other words, the $62M was likely already earned and is simply being :'(converted to cash when he departs
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It means no departing package.
He departed. He's getting $62 million.
But if you want, you don't have to use them in the same sentence.
#semanticsRfun
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He departed. He's getting $62 million.
But if you want, you don't have to use them in the same sentence.
#semanticsRfun
No, he's not "getting $62 million".
Let's say when you got laid off, before that happened... 5 years prior, you made contributions of your own money to a deferred comp plan. Now, you get fired. Because of that, your contribution from 5 years ago to the plan is distributed to you.
You call that "getting" the money as part of a 'departing package'?
Nonsense.
He got what he had already earned contractually. Nada else. Stop the lies!
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No, he's not "getting $62 million".
Let's say when you got laid off, before that happened... 5 years prior, you made contributions of your own money to a deferred comp plan. Now, you get fired. Because of that, your contribution from 5 years ago to the plan is distributed to you.
You call that "getting" the money as part of a 'departing package'?
Nonsense.
He got what he had already earned contractually. Nada else. Stop the lies!
I hope he'll have enough to feed Latrell Sprewell's family.
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No, he's not "getting $62 million".
Let's say when you got laid off, before that happened... 5 years prior, you made contributions of your own money to a deferred comp plan. Now, you get fired. Because of that, your contribution from 5 years ago to the plan is distributed to you.
You call that "getting" the money as part of a 'departing package'?
Nonsense.
He got what he had already earned contractually. Nada else. Stop the lies!
Correct, but details don’t matter when it is a chance to take a shot.
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TCOM (a China travel company) is down 9.5% today solely on concerns around the Asian flu. Contrarian trade opportunity IMO.
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Wheels off on BA. All the bad news had it teetering, this Asian flu effects on travel has pushed it off the edge. Can't remember the last time Ive seen a Dow Jones stock halted.
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Would strongly encourage all to get into AMRN, ASAP - as in Monday. I put 50% of my portfolio into it back in July and used another 25% to buy the dips the last 5 months for dollar cost average of $18 per share.
AMRN's Vascepa will revolutionize the way we treat heart disease, diabetes, strokes, and potentially dementia.
Other strong biotech play: IGMS
Stock I took a flier on and kind of like is WRTC.
FYI, recent write up (note that the firm is long AMRN)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4317936-amarins-multiple-positives-and-news-good-bad-and-ugly-of-biopharma
"Amarin Corporation PLC (AMRN) is currently on a roll as the company is gearing up for the expanded market launch of its potential blockbuster drug Vascepa, which is now the only drug approved in the United States for lowering the risk of cardiovascular events in conjunction with statin therapy. It is estimated that the drug may touch the peak sales volume of $3-4 billion a year. However, after certain developments in the market, some analysts are thinking that the drug may be able to garner even higher revenue.
While Vascepa received its product label expansion in December, further increasing its market reach, the drug was given another positive fillip recently as competitor AstraZeneca (AZN) reported shelving trials for its Epanova drug candidate. The decision is not only going to cost the company to the tune of $100 million in write-offs but has also opened up a wider market for Amarin's Vascepa. Epanova was being touted as a strong rival to Vascepa and was expected to be a major player in the fish oil drug market. With Epanova out of the scene, Vascepa does not have any significant competition in the market.
Epanova is for treating high TG levels in adult patients suffering from hypertriglyceridemia. Had the company been successful with its now-abandoned STRENGTH study, it would have been able to market the drug to a wider market with label expansion.
Similarly, Amarin received another positive push as Acasti Pharma Inc. (ACST) also posted negative developments regarding its CaPre drug candidate. The company reported that a phase 3 trial of the drug failed to meet its endpoint, which was of the reduction of triglycerides by 20% in comparison to placebo. The trial showed that the median triglyceride reduction in patients taking CaPre was 30.5% and the corresponding reduction in the placebo arm was 27.5 percent. Thus, the drug failed to make a significant reduction in TG levels, leading to the failure of the trial."
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Several WFC execs, including the fired CEO, got fined a collective $59 million for their roles in the fake-accounts scandal. Talk about getting a slap on the wrist.
All of these guys became multi-multi-multi-millionaires, socked away the dough for years by cheating customers and screwing shareholders. Fining one of them $10 million would be like fining one of us $10. Except we'd miss the $10 more.
They are thieves, this was a capital crime, and they should have done serious time. Instead, they were fined a pittance.
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They are thieves, this was a capital crime, and they should have done serious time. Instead, they were fined a pittance.
Not sure if you were making a pun here, or if you really believe that theft is a "capital crime." The punishment you're advocating seems to suggest not.
/Not disagreeing with your underlying point...I was just struck by the double meaning of the word "capital" when I read it.
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Not sure if you were making a pun here, or if you really believe that theft is a "capital crime." The punishment you're advocating seems to suggest not.
/Not disagreeing with your underlying point...I was just struck by the double meaning of the word "capital" when I read it.
Yeah, I didn't mean a capital offense. Dopey wording on my part. Should have said "serious crime" -- deserving of jail time.
They are thieves, and they ruined countless lives. But thank goodness they were fined, so now each of them only has a few yachts instead of 6 or 8.
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Several WFC execs, including the fired CEO, got fined a collective $59 million for their roles in the fake-accounts scandal. Talk about getting a slap on the wrist.
All of these guys became multi-multi-multi-millionaires, socked away the dough for years by cheating customers and screwing shareholders. Fining one of them $10 million would be like fining one of us $10. Except we'd miss the $10 more.
They are thieves, this was a capital crime, and they should have done serious time. Instead, they were fined a pittance.
I'm not advocating that the punishment wasn't lenient and that they shouldn't do jail time, but I think you're massively understating the amplitude of the fines. This isn't Jeff Bezos or a tech CEO worth billions. This was the CEO of a publicly traded company who received the vast majority of his compensation in options and stock, much of which has to vest. His annual salary was in the $2-3MM range. WFC clawed back a big chunk of his options and compensation when things broke in 2016. Most estimates of his net worth are in the $50-60MM range. Obviously he's not going to be panhandling in the street, but this isn't some meaningless $10,000 fine for a late hit for an athlete making $500K a game. $17MM is a pretty substantial hit, especially since the vast majority of his fortune isn't liquid. I think the fines are pretty fare and justifiably punitive.
You're a smart guy, you're better than lumping every "wealthy" person in with the bulletproof Bezos/Geffen/oligarch megarich. They should have done jailtime, on that we can agree.
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I'm not advocating that the punishment wasn't lenient and that they shouldn't do jail time, but I think you're massively understating the amplitude of the fines. This isn't Jeff Bezos or a tech CEO worth billions. This was the CEO of a publicly traded company who received the vast majority of his compensation in options and stock, much of which has to vest. His annual salary was in the $2-3MM range. WFC clawed back a big chunk of his options and compensation when things broke in 2016. Most estimates of his net worth are in the $50-60MM range. Obviously he's not going to be panhandling in the street, but this isn't some meaningless $10,000 fine for a late hit for an athlete making $500K a game. $17MM is a pretty substantial hit, especially since the vast majority of his fortune isn't liquid. I think the fines are pretty fare and justifiably punitive.
You're a smart guy, you're better than lumping every "wealthy" person in with the bulletproof Bezos/Geffen/oligarch megarich. They should have done jailtime, on that we can agree.
Not lumping at all.
After the fine, he's still worth a minimum of $33M. You or I would miss $100 more.
At least we agree that the scum of the earth shoulda been somebody's girlfriend in the hoosekow.
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open October 30... $92.39
Today.. $110.86
20% proper
Closed at $144.92 today. 57% gain in ~3 months. I'll take it nh
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Has anyone started repositioning their portfolios yet?
We're in the 10th year of an economic expansion (almost 11) and many of us who have been invested in equities have done very well in recent years.
Is it time in your eyes to begin to lock in gains from the current economic environment, or do you ride a bit longer in hopes the economy stays strong?
Inquiring Warriors are curious.
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Wish I had not sold my Tesla stock last year. Eeeesh.
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Has anyone started repositioning their portfolios yet?
We're in the 10th year of an economic expansion (almost 11) and many of us who have been invested in equities have done very well in recent years.
Is it time in your eyes to begin to lock in gains from the current economic environment, or do you ride a bit longer in hopes the economy stays strong?
Inquiring Warriors are curious.
Yes, I rebalanced last month.
Met with my Morgan Stanley guy today about it. He has different opinion than my Raymond James guy, but my plans are to hang it up early so I want some of the aggressiveness out at this point.
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Has anyone started repositioning their portfolios yet?
We're in the 10th year of an economic expansion (almost 11) and many of us who have been invested in equities have done very well in recent years.
Is it time in your eyes to begin to lock in gains from the current economic environment, or do you ride a bit longer in hopes the economy stays strong?
Inquiring Warriors are curious.
Depending on conditions the repositioning habit should take place two to three times a year.
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Depending on conditions the repositioning habit should take place two to three times a year.
I have very few individual stocks. Most of what I have is mutual funds. I like diversity.
We do a monthly look at what's happening and an annual check on repositioning/recasting.
We are talking about repositioning a small part of our investments into mid-term bond funds (duration between 3 and 4) to lock in some of the gains we have received in the past five years in our portfolio.
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While I have modified new allocations (particularly, I've shifted most of my S-MID allocation to fixed/bond) I have not re-balanced.
Personally, I don't think it's warranted right now, but I say that as someone who is also hedged against a short-term correction (which, in theory, proxies as something of a cushion to re-allocate if the need arises)... so grain of salt and all.
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Saw this for 2020: Gold, big tech underperforms, Japan (Olympics), German reset with a stimulus, gaming over streaming, emerging markets if USD softens, low inflation continues, UK after Brexit to be strong, lower corporate buybacks that boosted stocks in 2019, low volatility continues to overperform market.
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Saw this for 2020: Gold, big tech underperforms, Japan (Olympics), German reset with a stimulus, gaming over streaming, emerging markets if USD softens, low inflation continues, UK after Brexit to be strong, lower corporate buybacks that boosted stocks in 2019, low volatility continues to overperform market.
This reads like a farmer's almanac.
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This reads like a farmer's almanac.
If you require details, pay me my rate.
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If you require details, pay me my rate.
How many beef n' cheddars do you charge?
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Anybody hopping on the sprint/T-Mobile train today?
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Anybody hopping on the sprint/T-Mobile train today?
I wish I hopped on the Sprint train yesterday!
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Anybody hopping on the sprint/T-Mobile train today?
Sell the news
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Sell the news
Huh?
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Huh?
Profit take
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Huh?
Buy the rumor, sell the news is an old saying. Basically you buy when all the big guys are running it up on speculation, then sell when the news comes out, the average Joes read about it and go to invest, and the big funds take profits and sell to them and the prices drop cause they own far more than retail is buying
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Buy the rumor, sell the news is an old saying. Basically you buy when all the big guys are running it up on speculation, then sell when the news comes out, the average Joes read about it and go to invest, and the big funds take profits and sell to them and the prices drop cause they own far more than retail is buying
Thanks, makes sense now.
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Yesterday, on the Exchange:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFALYnEq7Ao
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In my long (18+ and 30+ year) time horizon accounts I'm incrementally buying the S&P index, so big down days are times when I'm accumulating. I don't necessarily think we're done going down, but I also don't trust myself to spot the bottom, so a modified dollar cost averaging strategy it is.
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Well.... at least my TSLA puts are starting to recover some of their value.
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Yesterday, on the Exchange:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFALYnEq7Ao
Number 1 and 2 on my 2020 trends list: Buy Gold and Tech underperforms.
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Would strongly encourage all to get into AMRN, ASAP - as in Monday. I put 50% of my portfolio into it back in July and used another 25% to buy the dips the last 5 months for dollar cost average of $18 per share.
AMRN's Vascepa will revolutionize the way we treat heart disease, diabetes, strokes, and potentially dementia.
Other strong biotech play: IGMS
Stock I took a flier on and kind of like is WRTC.
You still holding onto AMRN? Woooooooooooffffff
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You still holding onto AMRN? Woooooooooooffffff
lmao, can't sell it now!
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i've had gilead(GILD) for over 2 years. not a lot. bought a little more last week. pays a decent dividend. little(none) did i know until just a few months ago that they cold be playing a HUGE role in this coronavirus thingy. i'm just going to sit back and watch
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i've had gilead(GILD) for over 2 years. not a lot. bought a little more last week. pays a decent dividend. little(none) did i know until just a few months ago that they cold be playing a HUGE role in this coronavirus thingy. i'm just going to sit back and watch
Got in on that, novavax and moderna in the past few days 8-)
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Got in on that, novavax and moderna in the past few days 8-)
I know I've mentioned this before, but I do a lot of biotech investing. I tend to look for companies that are trying to do something unique in the way they approach development of their medicines. Moderna and their use of mRNA fit into that category so I bought it January of 2019 at just under 17/share. It is a very intriguing company but I do think it has run up too far too fast. I sold my position yesterday, maybe should held on to some. Missed out on some gains, but that is OK. I'll be looking to get back in if it falsl back to the mid 20s.
I sold Gilead a few months back in the mid 60s at a loss. Nice dividend yield, but was looking to harvest some losses.
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lmao, can't sell it now!
No crap, but if that is really like 75% of his portfolio like he said - eeeeeeek.
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I know I've mentioned this before, but I do a lot of biotech investing. I tend to look for companies that are trying to do something unique in the way they approach development of their medicines. Moderna and their use of mRNA fit into that category so I bought it January of 2019 at just under 17/share. It is a very intriguing company but I do think it has run up too far too fast. I sold my position yesterday, maybe should held on to some. Missed out on some gains, but that is OK. I'll be looking to get back in if it falsl back to the mid 20s.
I sold Gilead a few months back in the mid 60s at a loss. Nice dividend yield, but was looking to harvest some losses.
good to know-thanks! i going to watch that one(moderna) i've had novartis for a couple years and just holding. just bought some astrazeneca a couple of months ago. i usually buy for the moderate to long hold unless the thing is really a dog. briggs and stratton the most recent example-took a big hit on but actually reinvested the remnants into gilead. GE has been drip drip dripping up-long hold in at 7-8. procter and gamble and dollar general have been very good to me
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AAAANNNNNND we've officially reach panicked and indiscriminate selling mode. There is some gaps to be filled from a crazy run up to be sure, but the market went from finding a bottom, recovering and steadying itself from a crazy 3 day drawdown, to shaving off another 120 SPX points cause a school in Seattle closed and Gavin Newsome said they were "monitoring" people.
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AAAANNNNNND we've officially reach panicked and indiscriminate selling mode. There is some gaps to be filled from a crazy run up to be sure, but the market went from finding a bottom, recovering and steadying itself from a crazy 3 day drawdown, to shaving off another 120 SPX points cause a school in Seattle closed and Gavin Newsome said they were "monitoring" people.
Except investors are quickly realizing that the supply chain is totally screwed, currently.
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Except investors are quickly realizing that the supply chain is totally screwed, currently.
That was the first phase of the move. What happened today wasn’t. They dumped anything and everything, including names that don’t have China exposure or would otherwise be affected. Based on “realizing the supply chain was screwed”, no reason today should have been the biggest down day of them all. Nothing in regards to that changed meaningfully, today was just panic cause of CA and diagnosed cases in other countries
I also think some not insignificant Bernie caution/worry is being woven into the market now that it’s unstable as wel
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You still holding onto AMRN? Woooooooooooffffff
No answer from Mr. Musk? someone should check his closet or garage ASAP.
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i'm sure he is just re-strategerizing
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Is anyone else dumping a few grand from cash into investments today? Just going to load up on SPY
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Is anyone else dumping a few grand from cash into investments today? Just going to load up on SPY
Yep, same idea. Picking at the index.
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Is anyone else dumping a few grand from cash into investments today? Just going to load up on SPY
Likely going to buy some SPY in the near future.
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Is anyone else dumping a few grand from cash into investments today? Just going to load up on SPY
Yep. Trying to pick the best spots broadly & specifically. DIS, GOOG, CMCSA seem unfairly hit relative to exposure...
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Is anyone else dumping a few grand from cash into investments today? Just going to load up on SPY
10% of available cash if down 20% and officially bear market
Another 20% at 30% down
Another 30% at 40% down
Last 40% if 50% down.
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Buying 30-day SPY puts and calls (deep OOM)
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I like that strategy quite a bit, volatility seems certain.
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10% of available cash if down 20% and officially bear market
Another 20% at 30% down
Another 30% at 40% down
Last 40% if 50% down.
I could be totally wrong, but my opinion is that we are close to the bottom. I think worst fears are just about priced in.
But what the hell do I know? I guess a lot still depends on extent of spread and the response within the US.
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anyone have a good cyber security? i have been watching okta, adi, roku and marvl going to be waiting for chit to settle down though
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anyone have a good cyber security? i have been watching okta, adi, roku and marvl going to be waiting for chit to settle down though
Pleasantly surprised to see NET jump a bit, even in the middle of all of this week's BS.
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I could be totally wrong, but my opinion is that we are close to the bottom. I think worst fears are just about priced in.
But what the hell do I know? I guess a lot still depends on extent of spread and the response within the US.
I think the next seven days are critical... the White House has been uncharacteristically silent on the economic fallout aside from a few soundbites from Larry Kudlow. Most likely this means they're waiting for more data/observations, but it could also mean they're strategizing behind closed doors for the next disclosure/revelation.
Whatever the case, what I think is most likely is that - irrespective of how dire or innocuous the situation is - this is going to turn into a political issue, and the negativity and finger-pointing is going to lead to fear and uncertainty, which is going to cause a 'technical panic' (if it's not a term, I'm coining it) in the markets.
However, Americans are notoriously resilient, and at some point, there is going to be a moment of enlightenment followed by an overwhelming desire to move on with our lives... and at that point, the market goes U/V.
If one of these events happens in the next 30 days, I'm covered. If both, Merry New Year.
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anyone have a good cyber security? i have been watching okta, adi, roku and marvl going to be waiting for chit to settle down though
OKTA is a great company, it's been a great stock. I also like CACI and AKAM.
I think cyber security is a great place to be invested for the long term. I have clients invested in the 3 names mentioned above and also in CIBR which is a cyber security etf.
PANW reported recently and got obliterated, it was close to $250/share before earnings now it is in the high 180s I think it's pretty interesting. I mentioned a few days ago I sold my MRNA shares, I used some of the proceeds to buy AKAM in my personal portfolio.
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I put some cash into ISRG yesterday, as they seem to have a pretty good lead on the larger medical device companies in robotic surgery technology. Might buy a little more today.
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thanks for all of this guys-one company i have been in boeing at $350/sh since last march. it got as high as $432 during this time, but has taken it's beating because of it's obvious past issues with the 737 max, but they've rolled out a 777-xxx that has orders up the ying yang. boeing is a $290/sh this morning. they fix the max and move forward uneventfully with both the max and the triple x, this is a $500/sh stock in a year or so. am i nuts?
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thanks for all of this guys-one company i have been in boeing at $350/sh since last march. it got as high as $432 during this time, but has taken it's beating because of it's obvious past issues with the 737 max, but they've rolled out a 777-xxx that has orders up the ying yang. boeing is a $290/sh this morning. they fix the max and move forward uneventfully with both the max and the triple x, this is a $500/sh stock in a year or so. am i nuts?
I'm not quite that bullish. Boeing seems to keep tripping over themselves and aren't executing well. They have a lot of goodwill to rebuild over their 737MAX screwups. Couple that with possible echoes through airtravel industry due to COVID19, and, well, I'm just not quite as bullish as you are. I think it goes up from where it is now, how far is a different question.
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I'm not quite that bullish. Boeing seems to keep tripping over themselves and aren't executing well. They have a lot of goodwill to rebuild over their 737MAX screwups. Couple that with possible echoes through airtravel industry due to COVID19, and, well, I'm just not quite as bullish as you are. I think it goes up from where it is now, how far is a different question.
good points. more immediately, i forgot to factor in the virus thing, but long term, 1-2 years i be can't believe this stock can be held back from $450 just from the stuff on the books. they do have to do a better job maneuvering thru the issues they have created for themselves. they are presently at about a 2 + year low however. unless they feel they can come back on their own accord, a dividend increase could prime the pumps. they may not have to resort to that however.
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I bought 6 QQQ put contracts expiring 3/6 at around 8:45 am this morning, the Dow at that point was down -150. As I was putting in a limit order to sell, the Fed announced the rate cut, and literally in a minute, I went from a small profit to down a lot. Didn't sell, hung on to my original limit order, and ended up hitting it around 10:30 am, made a good size profit. I checked this afternoon the contracts, had I held on a few more hours, could have sold for 2.5 x the amount.
Crazy times, I've played options contracts, but for me personally have had as crazy of a roller coaster day as this for me.
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I bought 6 QQQ put contracts expiring 3/6 at around 8:45 am this morning, the Dow at that point was down -150. As I was putting in a limit order to sell, the Fed announced the rate cut, and literally in a minute, I went from a small profit to down a lot. Didn't sell, hung on to my original limit order, and ended up hitting it around 10:30 am, made a good size profit. I checked this afternoon the contracts, had I held on a few more hours, could have sold for 2.5 x the amount.
Crazy times, I've played options contracts, but for me personally have had as crazy of a roller coaster day as this for me.
Benny's Rule #1 For Options Investing: Don't ever look back after taking a profit if all you're going to do is kick yourself... those woulda-shoulda-coulda's can, and will, go the other way more often than not, especially with elevated theta.
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I bought 6 QQQ put contracts expiring 3/6 at around 8:45 am this morning, the Dow at that point was down -150. As I was putting in a limit order to sell, the Fed announced the rate cut, and literally in a minute, I went from a small profit to down a lot. Didn't sell, hung on to my original limit order, and ended up hitting it around 10:30 am, made a good size profit. I checked this afternoon the contracts, had I held on a few more hours, could have sold for 2.5 x the amount.
Crazy times, I've played options contracts, but for me personally have had as crazy of a roller coaster day as this for me.
Ice in your veins, dude.
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Benny's Rule #1 For Options Investing: Don't ever look back after taking a profit if all you're going to do is kick yourself... those woulda-shoulda-coulda's can, and will, go the other way more often than not, especially with elevated theta.
Yeah, I should have clarified, I was happy with what I came out with, I'm not complaining one bit. My brother works for E Trade, and when he got me going with Options, that was his first rule, don't look back on a profit ever. You'll go literally insane doing that.
If we were talking out loud about this, that tone would have come across much better on my end than it did on a message board. It's very very sound advice though, and I agree 100%.
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Ice in your veins, dude.
I was sitting in my home office, and audibly said aloud "Holy F***" when the Fed rate happened (I didn't know it was happening in real time) as I was staring at my E-Trade app.
I'm not trying to say "yayy me" or anything like that either, I was merely trying to say for me personally, it was the craziest roller coaster day I've seen with turning on a dime swings of hundreds of points. I don't claim to be some experienced or good trader, certainly taken my share of beatings as well.
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I was sitting in my home office, and audibly said aloud "Holy F***" when the Fed rate happened (I didn't know it was happening in real time) as I was staring at my E-Trade app.
I'm not trying to say "yayy me" or anything like that either, I was merely trying to say for me personally, it was the craziest roller coaster day I've seen with turning on a dime swings of hundreds of points. I don't claim to be some experienced or good trader, certainly taken my share of beatings as well.
The volatility has been unreal. I play a decent amount of options and usually keep the market on a monitor as my middays (once Asia/India goes to sleep) are usually quiet. The last 7 trading days have been unlike anything Ive ever seen. Normally ES (SPY/SPX) futures +/- 20 on a given night is a "whoa" moment. They are routinely going 50 pts down or up, and completely reversing overnight. There are MANY days where the SPY plays in a 1-2 pt range and today we had a 16pt swing from top to bottom. Hell, it bounced and fell 4 points multiple times in the last hour. Its both a daytraders dream and nightmare.
I put on some SPX 3075 calls yesterday midday when I thought an afternoon pop would happen, as things fell apart I put in a limit sell for a 50% loss think MAYBE I get lucky and it fills on a random spike, and forgot about it as I watched other stuff. Oh it filled on that crazy rip and ended up I think 1500% up as it ran away from me, sadly. Nuts.
But Benny is dead right. Nobody goes broke taking profits, especially in Options. For every time you sell for a 200% gain and it runs another 2-500% after, there are twice as many times as a nice profit flips to a complete loss on one random tape bomb in this absurdly headline driven market.
My favorite prime example today, SPX started to work back up with about 15 min left in the day, closing on a decent note after bouncing off a support level at 3000...Google announces they are halting employee travel (which is not a big deal at all given the environment) and the bottom drops out and it drops 35 pts (a normally HUGE drop for a typical trading day) in 3 min. Its chaotic to say the least
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The volatility has been unreal. I play a decent amount of options and usually keep the market on a monitor as my middays (once Asia/India goes to sleep) are usually quiet. The last 7 trading days have been unlike anything Ive ever seen. Normally ES (SPY/SPX) futures +/- 20 on a given night is a "whoa" moment. They are routinely going 50 pts down or up, and completely reversing overnight. There are MANY days where the SPY plays in a 1-2 pt range and today we had a 16pt swing from top to bottom. Hell, it bounced and fell 4 points multiple times in the last hour. Its both a daytraders dream and nightmare.
I put on some SPX 3075 calls yesterday midday when I thought an afternoon pop would happen, as things fell apart I put in a limit sell for a 50% loss think MAYBE I get lucky and it fills on a random spike, and forgot about it as I watched other stuff. Oh it filled on that crazy rip and ended up I think 1500% up as it ran away from me, sadly. Nuts.
But Benny is dead right. Nobody goes broke taking profits, especially in Options. For every time you sell for a 200% gain and it runs another 2-500% after, there are twice as many times as a nice profit flips to a complete loss on one random tape bomb in this absurdly headline driven market.
My favorite prime example today, SPX started to work back up with about 15 min left in the day, closing on a decent note after bouncing off a support level at 3000...Google announces they are halting employee travel (which is not a big deal at all given the environment) and the bottom drops out and it drops 35 pts (a normally HUGE drop for a typical trading day) in 3 min. Its chaotic to say the least
This is well said and the point I was trying to make. Option trading is not for everyone, it is a wild ride, and today (and recently) have been crazy wild rides. I'm happy with a profit and getting the heck out for the day.
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Wags
The volatility has been crazy and playing some of the same options. Taking profits daily, but still long every night for the last eight days. Been nice making some dough on the way down but I want things to get back to normal. I am seeing numbers in my sleep.
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Benny's Rule #1 For Options Investing: Don't ever look back after taking a profit if all you're going to do is kick yourself... those woulda-shoulda-coulda's can, and will, go the other way more often than not, especially with elevated theta.
This x100. We all do it (I could have had 5x my profit on my puts on SNDR if I held another day), but take your profit and move on. Your timing will seldom, if ever, be perfect, but enjoy your victory and look for the next one.
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Wags
The volatility has been crazy and playing some of the same options. Taking profits daily, but still long every night for the last eight days. Been nice making some dough on the way down but I want things to get back to normal. I am seeing numbers in my sleep.
Agreed. I’m ready for the market to not be so reactionary. Even if that means a few weeks of downward drift towards 2500 levels. We’ve been absurdly headline sensitive for most of the Trump presidency, but this is even more special circumstances
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Agreed. I’m ready for the market to not be so reactionary. Even if that means a few weeks of downward drift towards 2500 levels. We’ve been absurdly headline sensitive for most of the Trump presidency, but this is even more special circumstances
I agree with both what you say here and your past comments about the Corona virus. As of now, it seems like it will manifest itself similar to the flu.
What I will ask is do you think there is any way in the near future for the market to stabilize when the response to the new virus is total chaos? Similar to China, our gov't will not tell us how many cases there are. We are advised to go to work even if we think we have the virus. There is zero leadership on what steps normal people can take to aid in the prevention of the virus. Can the markets overcome this? (I realize our markets are somewhat dependent on others around the world, but I am talking about what happens here).
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I agree with both what you say here and your past comments about the Corona virus. As of now, it seems like it will manifest itself similar to the flu.
What I will ask is do you think there is any way in the near future for the market to stabilize when the response to the new virus is total chaos? Similar to China, our gov't will not tell us how many cases there are. We are advised to go to work even if we think we have the virus. There is zero leadership on what steps normal people can take to aid in the prevention of the virus. Can the markets overcome this? (I realize our markets are somewhat dependent on others around the world, but I am talking about what happens here).
There's a difference between "will not tell us" and "cannot tell us." And judging by the performance of my SPY doom-puts, the markets seem to be overcoming just fine.
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There's a difference between "will not tell us" and "cannot tell us." And judging by the performance of my SPY doom-puts, the markets seem to be overcoming just fine.
While I freely admit that you know more about the markets than I do (hence, why I pay a financial advisor), I have no clue what you just said. :-\
In another vein, here's a good clue as to what the Wall Streeters think about us common folks:
"Maybe we'd be better off if we gave [COVID-19] to everybody, and in a month it would be over because the mortality is going to be any different than the long-term picture but the difference is we're wreaking havoc on global economies," -- Rick Santelli
Apparently, people suffering and dying really annoys him. So, he'd like to see about 10,000,000 people die in the US (WHO puts fatality rate at just over 3%) so as not to be inconvenienced in his pursuit of an extra dollar.
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While I freely admit that you know more about the markets than I do (hence, why I pay a financial advisor), I have no clue what you just said. :-\
In another vein, here's a good clue as to what the Wall Streeters think about us common folks:
"Maybe we'd be better off if we gave [COVID-19] to everybody, and in a month it would be over because the mortality is going to be any different than the long-term picture but the difference is we're wreaking havoc on global economies," -- Rick Santelli
Apparently, people suffering and dying really annoys him. So, he'd like to see about 10,000,000 people die in the US (WHO puts fatality rate at just over 3%) so as not to be inconvenienced in his pursuit of an extra dollar.
What I think he means is there is a difference between having numbers and not sharing them, and not collecting every last case and/or compiling all the data. Contrary to a lot of people’s opinions, short of sharing necessary precautions and procedure, sharing every last tidbit of information or exact counts doesn’t help the general public or businesses, but rather drives further hysteria.
And Rick Santelli is a bozo, but he’s also not a Wall Streeter. He’s a talking head employed by an entertainment company masquerading as financial news. But as to his point, it’s not nearly as dramatic as you make it to be. And it’s not greedy, cause there are plenty of “normal people” income and livelihood at stake.
Look at it this way. A blizzard is projected to hit Milwaukee. A MASSIVE logistic shattering blizzard. But it’s speculated about for a week, 2 weeks or more. People are prepping, raiding shelves, preparing to stay home from work, productivity is shelved with prep and panic. It would be better for the storm to just hit and deal with it. That’s what’s happening now. You have healthy people well outside of the “danger” demographic freaking out and putting lives, businesses, production, etc... potentially on hold on “what if’s”.
As for WHO, they bumbled their handling of this, proclaimed it essentially not a big deal in their early assessments, and now are banging the pandemic panic drum as loud as can be, cause there are significant financial and funding implications for them as a result. They are a corrupt joke.
Can the market overcome this? Sure. There is still plenty to be determined but I think it’s probably time for the panic selling to subside. I do think we see lower levels in coming months, but that will be a result of real numbers and productivity impacts coming to light via numbers and earnings, not panicked “this will cripple the world economy” hysteria as a company announcing a freeze on domestic travel makes stock prices drop multiple percent
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I don’t think there are many examples where less info is better than more for the market. In fact if there is distrust most people estimate a worse scenario than is true. Better to get the bad news fast and move on (which is probably was miscommunicated by the talking head). My opinion of course.
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Dow futures down 1000 points, oil down to $30 a barrel, lowest price in 30 years.
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Dow futures down 1000 points, oil down to $30 a barrel, lowest price in 30 years.
10y treasury note below 0.5%.
Buckle up buckaroos.
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Woof
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S&P futures are limit down, down 145 points or 5%.
That's all it can do until the NYSE open. Then it expands to 7%.
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We’re potentially on the cusp of $20 barrel oil and zero percent interest rates, in what feels like the blink of an eye.
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We are potentially on the cusp of $20 barrel oil and zero percent interest rates, in what feels like the blink of an eye.
I was wondering if anyone was watching Crude. The break even point for crude is approx $50.00 barrel. I am short on both $WTI and $BRENT. Both are consolidating right now, $WTI @ 30.49 and $BRENT @ 33.87. Watch for break below 28.11 on $WTI and 31.79 on $BRENT for a another down side move.
If Crude moves down to 20.00 this will be a very sweet trade. Good Luck!
If you dont have a Futures account you can use the ETF $SCO
ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil Inverse leveraged 2X
This ETF will short $WTI (light sweet crude) Try to get a tight bid/ask to keep slippage to a minimum, use stp-lmt orders for execution not mkt orders. If you use mkt orders you have to pay the difference between the bid/ask. DO NOT FORGET TO SET YOUR STOP-LOSS, just in case the trade turn against you!
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Looks like we're headed toward a recession, yes?
In hindsight, I wish we wouldn't have passed tax cuts that reduced available tax revenue. And then pushed the fed to drop rates to further prop up an already sinking economy. I don't think the fed has any bullets left in the chamber to help out here.
Coronavirus certainly plays a role as well.
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Looks like we're headed toward a recession, yes?
In hindsight, I wish we wouldn't have passed tax cuts that reduced available tax revenue. And then pushed the fed to drop rates to further prop up an already sinking economy. I don't think the fed has any bullets left in the chamber to help out here.
Coronavirus certainly plays a role as well.
If we are heading to a recession it'll be a short lived one. The economic fundamentals are still sound, this is a perfect storm of a major US election, if it bleeds it leads type of media hysteria, and a virus emerging in China first which threw a big wrench in the global supply chain for a couple of months.
The market was largely oversold IMO so a bear market or a hard reset was due at some point, Corona just happened to be the trigger. I think a year from now we'll be back to growth.
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Looks like we're headed toward a recession, yes?
In hindsight, I wish we wouldn't have passed tax cuts that reduced available tax revenue. And then pushed the fed to drop rates to further prop up an already sinking economy. I don't think the fed has any bullets left in the chamber to help out here.
Coronavirus certainly plays a role as well.
Meh... tax cuts are the primary driver behind why the markets were at historic highs before covid-19, and as Eng said, fundamentals are still strong, so a lot of the current move isn't so much correction as it is reaction to an unknown; so arguably, we'd still be down right now, with or without tax cuts, but the starting point would have been much lower without. Not to mention, whatever extra revenue there would have been likely would have already been spent, i.e. it's not probable that there would have been this war chest to fight a virus. So in a scenario where CDC's budget was not cut, there may be more staff right now without the tax cuts, but most of them would be standing around with no funding. But let's say that with more staff (and nothing to do) it's much more likely that the CDC would not have royally botched the ordering/production of test kits which led to the assumed shortage, but more testing could indicate the virus is already more widespread in the US, and nobody overreacts to anything like the American public... so even though 80% of people who are exposed will have mild or no symptoms, we could be dealing with a tremendous over-reaction - pushing markets even lower. And I haven't even broached the Russo-Canadian invasion scenario that might have been borne out of no tax cuts; however, with oil where it is, we might still see that with, so we can call that a wash.
In other words, pick your poison. Or not... no one says you have to drink any of it.
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Looks like we're headed toward a recession, yes?
In hindsight, I wish we wouldn't have passed tax cuts that reduced available tax revenue. And then pushed the fed to drop rates to further prop up an already sinking economy. I don't think the fed has any bullets left in the chamber to help out here.
Coronavirus certainly plays a role as well.
The Fed does have bullets left. They're not ideal but they're bullets. The cut last week will likely have come too quickly as it did nothing to assuage and tied their hands a tad in the 10 days that are coming. But the Fed can still have a positive mitigating impact, political strong-arming influence notwithstanding.
The issue above all as mu03eng pointed out, the market was due for a reset. The expansion has been on fumes for eight to 15 months. And the economy has been stuck for some time at 1.8-2.5 which is basically autopilot. Our biggest issue in months and years ahead is that we have starved the bank. We didn't pay down when we should have and that leaves us exposed when the next "crisis" shows itself.
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Looks like we're headed toward a recession, yes?
In hindsight, I wish we wouldn't have passed tax cuts that reduced available tax revenue. And then pushed the fed to drop rates to further prop up an already sinking economy. I don't think the fed has any bullets left in the chamber to help out here.
Coronavirus certainly plays a role as well.
One other note (this is not intended as an argument for or against those particular tax cut policy), our tax receipts are up year over year. The federal government doesn't have a revenue generation problem IMO, it has a spending problem. Annual deficits have been accelerating over the last couple of years so the US treasury has become significantly overleveraged especially should some sort of real economic crisis hit. The one nice mitigating factor of the overleverage with this particular financial concern is the fact that China holds most of that leverage but given their issues with Covid-19 and their need to restart the economic engine that the US is very, very unlikely to face any leverage risk. So spend away Uncle Sam, put a drunken sailor to shame! :)
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One other note (this is not intended as an argument for or against those particular tax cut policy), our tax receipts are up year over year.
What source are you using. Things look relatively flat when using FRED.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W006RC1Q027SBEA (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W006RC1Q027SBEA)
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What source are you using. Things look relatively flat when using FRED.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W006RC1Q027SBEA (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W006RC1Q027SBEA)
Department of the Treasury report site
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/ (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/)
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Department of the Treasury report site
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/ (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/)
Odd - if you flip my graph to annual 15-17 flat. 18 down. Then presumably 19 up.
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The issue above all as mu03eng pointed out, the market was due for a reset. The expansion has been on fumes for eight to 15 months. And the economy has been stuck for some time at 1.8-2.5 which is basically autopilot. Our biggest issue in months and years ahead is that we have starved the bank. We didn't pay down when we should have and that leaves us exposed when the next "crisis" shows itself.
Agree with this. If there was ever a time to pare down the deficit is should have been over the last 5 years.
I nibbled on some more ABBV this morning. We were near enough to 20%/official bear market that I started to deploy some of my first 10% of cash.
I have no idea where the bottom is, but if we run a similar timeline to China we are probably looking at another 4-6 weeks of instability at minimum.
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Thanks for the clarifications everyone.
Examples like this are why I like scoop
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Agree with this. If there was ever a time to pare down the deficit is should have been over the last 5 years.
I nibbled on some more ABBV this morning. We were near enough to 20%/official bear market that I started to deploy some of my first 10% of cash.
I have no idea where the bottom is, but if we run a similar timeline to China we are probably looking at another 4-6 weeks of instability at minimum.
This afternoon will be very interesting. I'm hearing rumblings of a TARP-like injection for travel/Covid related stocks. If thats true, I think we have a backstop and we should squeeze higher and then start to ride out the effects.
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I'm hearing rumblings of a TARP-like injection for travel/Covid related stocks.
Election year politics at its worst if true.
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We are bail out happy.....sometimes you just have to let the system reset itself. It sucks if people are impacted but stumbling from economic reset to economic reset like a drunken sailor is not the answer.
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Election year politics at its worst if true.
I mean, one side looking to backstop, while the other has been relentlessly stoking the fires that have lead to this market free fall knowing it will badly reflect on the sitting administration. Its dirty pool all across the table.
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I mean, one side looking to backstop, while the other has been relentlessly stoking the fires that have lead to this market free fall knowing it will badly reflect on the sitting administration. Its dirty pool all across the table.
This....never let a crisis go to waste....for either side.
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I mean, one side looking to backstop, while the other has been relentlessly stoking the fires that have lead to this market free fall knowing it will badly reflect on the sitting administration. Its dirty pool all across the table.
I think the sitting administration is what is badly reflecting on the sitting administration, but my comment was more in line with mu03eng's, namely that it is ridiculous to throw tax money at bailout.
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"The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages."
By Jesse Livermore
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If we gap down another couple hundred points on the SPX/DOW tomorrow, I'd recommend just ignoring the market for awhile. This is WILDLY overdone, and there is no guidance or illumination towards positives, so it allows the media, short sellers, and general agents of chaos to terrify retail into dumping and/or avoid buying. We are down 10-12% in 3 days, off of a level that was already 10%+ off the highs. On the biggest fall since 1987. And people are screaming we need more, we haven't fallen enough and throwing every big scary word like recession, depression, pandemic, quarantine into every headline they can.
If you wanna say there are global contractionary supply chain effects we wont feel for awhile yet, and there is further downside in the future. I can buy that. However, for what is known, this is hysteria and just pretty disgusting to watch people continue to cheerlead.
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If we gap down another couple hundred points on the SPX/DOW tomorrow, I'd recommend just ignoring the market for awhile. This is WILDLY overdone, and there is no guidance or illumination towards positives, so it allows the media, short sellers, and general agents of chaos to terrify retail into dumping and/or avoid buying. We are down 10-12% in 3 days, off of a level that was already 10%+ off the highs. On the biggest fall since 1987. And people are screaming we need more, we haven't fallen enough and throwing every big scary word like recession, depression, pandemic, quarantine into every headline they can.
If you wanna say there are global contractionary supply chain effects we wont feel for awhile yet, and there is further downside in the future. I can buy that. However, for what is known, this is hysteria and just pretty disgusting to watch people continue to cheerlead.
You neglect to speak about the causes of the hysteria.
Incompetence and serial lying cause the hysteria. “Live by the lie, die by the lie.”
The media does not force anyone to lie on a daily basis. That is a choice made by the liars. I don’t know if you believe the lie that this is a media “hoax”, but millions do.
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You neglect to speak about the causes of the hysteria.
Incompetence and serial lying cause the hysteria. “Live by the lie, die by the lie.”
The media does not force anyone to lie on a daily basis. That is a choice made by the liars. I don’t know if you believe the lie that this is a media “hoax”, but millions do.
The media certainly doesn't (as a collective) lie. However, the media also has it's own agenda that A) contribute to an artificial sense of panic and B) create a space for millions to believe the lies that are uttered.
Now this isn't a new phenomenon, there is a reason the term yellow journalism exists. The difference now is simply how fast things move and how much harder it is to break through the noise to get the signal out there.
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You neglect to speak about the causes of the hysteria.
Incompetence and serial lying cause the hysteria. “Live by the lie, die by the lie.”
The media does not force anyone to lie on a daily basis. That is a choice made by the liars. I don’t know if you believe the lie that this is a media “hoax”, but millions do.
Don't make it political. I'm not and never was. I'm speaking to driving clicks. Fear and panic sells. 5 new cases somewhere where there was previously 1 is shared as "new cases EXPLODE by 500%".
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Don't make it political. I'm not and never was. I'm speaking to driving clicks. Fear and panic sells. 5 new cases somewhere where there was previously 1 is shared as "new cases EXPLODE by 500%".
Or the classic "the number of deaths have doubled" when it went from 2 to 4 or something like that
*all deaths are tragic but inevitable
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If we gap down another couple hundred points on the SPX/DOW tomorrow, I'd recommend just ignoring the market for awhile. This is WILDLY overdone, and there is no guidance or illumination towards positives, so it allows the media, short sellers, and general agents of chaos to terrify retail into dumping and/or avoid buying.
Rather than ignore, I am attempting to stick to my plan of investing 10% of available cash at 20% decline, another 20% if we reach 30% down, etc.
I was sitting on 15% cash available for a downturn, and it piled up higher both from more dividends coming in and from some poor sucker buying my covered calls on OHI and then calling it away from me at $44/share, AFTER it went ex-dividend.
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So how badly do well-established dividend aristocrats really want to remain dividend aristocrats?
With oil tanking, XOM is at a point where its dividend yield is over 8%. Seems like a good long-term play, even though the short term could be a roller coaster....
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Rather than ignore, I am attempting to stick to my plan of investing 10% of available cash at 20% decline, another 20% if we reach 30% down, etc.
I was sitting on 15% cash available for a downturn, and it piled up higher both from more dividends coming in and from some poor sucker buying my covered calls on OHI and then calling it away from me at $44/share, AFTER it went ex-dividend.
But thats a fairly well thought out, structured strategy. I was speaking more to the "is this a good time to buy" crowd.
The Fear/Greed index is historically stretched towards fear, but people are acting like the Italy news is fuel for another crater, who knows at this point honestly.
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But thats a fairly well thought out, structured strategy. I was speaking more to the "is this a good time to buy" crowd.
The Fear/Greed index is historically stretched towards fear, but people are acting like the Italy news is fuel for another crater, who knows at this point honestly.
People see Italy as a taste of things to come, and they should. So they're properly freaking out.
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People see Italy as a taste of things to come, and they should. So they're properly freaking out.
::)
Agree to disagree. Or Italy is a case study on how not to handle it, exacerbated by a very physical culture that can often lack in hygiene. The US and the UK have both had multiple cases stretching back to the same timeline as Italy without an explosion like is seen there. So its not like Italy is just the tip of the spear. Same with Canada and Germany who are both not experiencing wild outbreaks.
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::)
Agree to disagree. Or Italy is a case study on how not to handle it, exacerbated by a very physical culture that can often lack in hygiene. The US and the UK have both had multiple cases stretching back to the same timeline as Italy without an explosion like is seen there. So its not like Italy is just the tip of the spear. Same with Canada and Germany who are both not experiencing wild outbreaks.
You can roll your eyes all you want, but what has the US done differently? Nothing. We are two weeks behind them.
Also, you can take the numbers everywhere with a big ol' grain of salt because they only count confirmed tests. Which there are not enough of. So when testing finally ramps up to where it is in SK (the best model) we will see what we really have on our hands, and I promise you, it won't be something to roll your eyes at.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1237061056620625921
Lets watch the UK in a couple of days. Be ready for the explosion of numbers. Hope I'm wrong, but I seriously doubt it.
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::)
Agree to disagree. Or Italy is a case study on how not to handle it, exacerbated by a very physical culture that can often lack in hygiene. The US and the UK have both had multiple cases stretching back to the same timeline as Italy without an explosion like is seen there. So its not like Italy is just the tip of the spear. Same with Canada and Germany who are both not experiencing wild outbreaks.
I'm not sure we have any way of knowing where we are in the U.S. with so few people being tested. We are less densely populated than Italy, so that will help, but there is no way to contain this at this point IMO.
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Don't make it political. I'm not and never was. I'm speaking to driving clicks. Fear and panic sells. 5 new cases somewhere where there was previously 1 is shared as "new cases EXPLODE by 500%".
You make a very fair point. It was only political because it is a national issue.
We could just as easily use a hypothetical without politics. What if the company you worked for was going through a crisis and the CEO called a company meeting and said Hey it's really nothing and we are expecting a miracle soon anyway, so don't worry about it. You and every other employee would go back to your office or cubicle. There would be a host of people panicking at that point.
In a time of crisis, leadership is everything. Lies and accusations cause panic. Great leaders are honest. Great leaders take responsibility for their actions. Great leaders inspire confidence and strength. In other words, great leaders lead.
We do not have it and THAT is the cause of the panic.
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You make a very fair point. It was only political because it is a national issue.
We could just as easily use a hypothetical without politics. What if the company you worked for was going through a crisis and the CEO called a company meeting and said Hey it's really nothing and we are expecting a miracle soon anyway, so don't worry about it. You and every other employee would go back to your office or cubicle. There would be a host of people panicking at that point.
In a time of crisis, leadership is everything. Lies and accusations cause panic. Great leaders are honest. Great leaders take responsibility for their actions. Great leaders inspire confidence and strength. In other words, great leaders lead.
We do not have it and THAT is the cause of the panic.
We don't have any actual leadership from anywhere on the political spectrum. For a generation who decries the soft millenial gemeration, the current generation of political leadership(regardless of letter by their name) is softer than the Charmon extra soft the populace is hoarding right now
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You can roll your eyes all you want, but what has the US done differently? Nothing. We are two weeks behind them.
Also, you can take the numbers everywhere with a big ol' grain of salt because they only count confirmed tests. Which there are not enough of. So when testing finally ramps up to where it is in SK (the best model) we will see what we really have on our hands, and I promise you, it won't be something to roll your eyes at.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1237061056620625921
Lets watch the UK in a couple of days. Be ready for the explosion of numbers. Hope I'm wrong, but I seriously doubt it.
I’m rolling my eyes at the idea that pre-emptive freaking out is occurring and being embraced. Especially when you have financial markets on the brink of outright panic. It’s irresponsible and reactionary.
You mean SK where the fatality rate is under 1%? Italy is in a bad way, no doubt about it. But this idea that it’s unavoidable and it’s bound to happen EVERYWHERE else, whereas plenty of other countries have cases existing for well over 4-6 weeks, is what I push back against.
Population density, weather/temperature, affected populations (Italy has an INSANE cigarette/smoking culture that the US does not, which is of importance for a respiratory virus), etc all seem to be discarded as we assume like for like
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I’m rolling my eyes at the idea that pre-emptive freaking out is occurring and being embraced. Especially when you have financial markets on the brink of outright panic. It’s irresponsible and reactionary.
You mean SK where the fatality rate is under 1%? Italy is in a bad way, no doubt about it. But this idea that it’s unavoidable and it’s bound to happen EVERYWHERE else, whereas plenty of other countries have cases existing for well over 4-6 weeks, is what I push back against.
Population density, weather/temperature, affected populations (Italy has an INSANE cigarette/smoking culture that the US does not, which is of importance for a respiratory virus), etc all seem to be discarded as we assume like for like
You didn't read. I meant that SK is the best case scenario. Because they are testing. We aren't. You can push back, but you have zippity evidence. Weather doesn't affect this, literally nothing to back that up. Diabetics are at high risk, and guess who #1 and #2 are? So if you haven't read, haven't done any DD, just shut up with your pointless opining.
Also, who cares about the god damned stock market. It'll rebound, who cares. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. People are just treating it for what it really it. A casino for wealthy people. The wealthy people are currently freaked out because they looked at the news around the world and they saw what anyone with a set of eyes and half a brain does. Supply chain and logistics nightmares. An overvalued market that people have been waiting for years to will into a recession. So here we are.
(https://i.imgur.com/ZKoR6cN.gif)
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You didn't read. I meant that SK is the best case scenario. Because they are testing. We aren't. You can push back, but you have zippity evidence. Weather doesn't affect this, literally nothing to back that up. Diabetics are at high risk, and guess who #1 and #2 are? So if you haven't read, haven't done any DD, just shut up with your pointless opining.
Also, who cares about the god damned stock market. It'll rebound, who cares. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. People are just treating it for what it really it. A casino for wealthy people. The wealthy people are currently freaked out because they looked at the news around the world and they saw what anyone with a set of eyes and half a brain does. Supply chain and logistics nightmares. An overvalued market that people have been waiting for years to will into a recession. So here we are.
(https://i.imgur.com/ZKoR6cN.gif)
You are all in I guess
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You are all in I guess
All in what? I'll put money in all the way down, just like every one else here should. No one knows that bottom, and I agree with the 4-6 week assessment a couple of pages ago... Assuming we do what China did (we won't), or what SK did (we have to). I have serious reservations about the difference in the average American mindset compared to SEA peoples. They'll do what is necessary. We used to think that way. Now we live a far to convenient life, and that is about to change.
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You didn't read. I meant that SK is the best case scenario. Because they are testing. We aren't. You can push back, but you have zippity evidence. Weather doesn't affect this, literally nothing to back that up. Diabetics are at high risk, and guess who #1 and #2 are? So if you haven't read, haven't done any DD, just shut up with your pointless opining.
Also, who cares about the god damned stock market. It'll rebound, who cares. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. People are just treating it for what it really it. A casino for wealthy people. The wealthy people are currently freaked out because they looked at the news around the world and they saw what anyone with a set of eyes and half a brain does. Supply chain and logistics nightmares. An overvalued market that people have been waiting for years to will into a recession. So here we are.
(https://i.imgur.com/ZKoR6cN.gif)
You have no idea about me or what you’re talking about, how this may affect me or my livelihood, or how the stock market can have very real impacts on many things, including my business. Or what I’ve read, who I’ve talked to, or what went into my opinion. Cause it didn’t match your worldview. Look at my post history. I don’t just run my mouth and make wild claims like some people. But You quickly got up on your pompous pedestal to lecture about some populist bullcrap. Whatever man. Have your beliefs. Cling hard to them. Don’t be an absolute prick about it. But I guess that’s too much to ask on the internet.
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You have no idea about me or what you’re talking about, how this may affect me or my livelihood, or how the stock market can have very real impacts on many things, including my business. Or what I’ve read, who I’ve talked to, or what went into my opinion. Cause it didn’t match your worldview. Look at my post history. I don’t just run my mouth and make wild claims like some people. But You quickly got up on your pompous pedestal to lecture about some populist bullcrap. Whatever man. Have your beliefs. Cling hard to them. Don’t be an absolute prick about it. But I guess that’s too much to ask on the internet.
Ooooo I literally do not care. I'm going to be a prick about it. And when I see BS I will say something. If you don't agree, I really do not give a single crap. Neither does anyone here. Just like most don't care about what I have to say. It's fine, I'm not answerable to any of you, nor are any of you to me. This a message board about Marquette basketball FFS.
This will have a bad effect on most people's businesses, including mine. Quite brutally, to be completely honest. I do know you haven't done your DD, so that's what I'm saying. You're espousing garbage that isn't based in science. Doesn't match my worldview? What exactly is my worldview? You seem to be pretty sure of it.
My lectures are not populist, though yours seem to be. Populist would be, "Don't worry, its the flu, we will be fine. Masks are pointless, travel where you want, don't prepare and buy." You know, what our populist government, president, and uninformed populace has been told. I've been beating the same drum since late January. It is that this virus is dangerous. I've also been saying (privately, and since I have zero posts about it on here I can't demonstrate evidence) that we have been due for an economic downturn for years. This is the catalyst, but if your livelihood depends on the stock market... you'll be fine. If you're planning on retiring in the next year or so, think again. But otherwise, as usual, don't worry. Time heals all wounds.
You want a scapegoat for the 2000 point drop today? Look no further than Russia and SA. They're playing a game of chicken, and the stock market is the loser. Period.
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Hards, you are right about this game of chicken btw Russia and Saudis causing this decline . The market will come back because the demand for durables will still be there when things settle down. The areas most effected are the cruise lines, airlines, hotels etc. lost revenue there will never be recovered but people will be purchasing the things they put off when normalcy returns.
But I disagree on your assessment of what the government is doing. Leadership is attempting to calm things down in the face of yellow journalism blowing this out of proportion. More people are dying from the common flu in greater numbers. Young people do not seem to contract this virus and many people who have tested positive remain symptom free. I know some in the CDC and between what I have been told and seen even praise from Obama era officials our officials are on this.
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Hards, you are right about this game of chicken btw Russia and Saudis causing this decline . The market will come back because the demand for durables will still be there when things settle down. The areas most effected are the cruise lines, airlines, hotels etc. lost revenue there will never be recovered but people will be purchasing the things they put off when normalcy returns.
But I disagree on your assessment of what the government is doing. Leadership is attempting to calm things down in the face of yellow journalism blowing this out of proportion. More people are dying from the common flu in greater numbers. Young people do not seem to contract this virus and many people who have tested positive remain symptom free. I know some in the CDC and between what I have been told and seen even praise from Obama era officials our officials are on this.
Thanks, and no the flu can kick rocks compared to covid19
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You didn't read. I meant that SK is the best case scenario. Because they are testing. We aren't. You can push back, but you have zippity evidence. Weather doesn't affect this, literally nothing to back that up. Diabetics are at high risk, and guess who #1 and #2 are? So if you haven't read, haven't done any DD, just shut up with your pointless opining.
Also, who cares about the god damned stock market. It'll rebound, who cares. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. People are just treating it for what it really it. A casino for wealthy people. The wealthy people are currently freaked out because they looked at the news around the world and they saw what anyone with a set of eyes and half a brain does. Supply chain and logistics nightmares. An overvalued market that people have been waiting for years to will into a recession. So here we are.
(https://i.imgur.com/ZKoR6cN.gif)
Dude, call your dealer. The weed is good for you.
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We don't have any actual leadership from anywhere on the political spectrum. For a generation who decries the soft millenial gemeration, the current generation of political leadership(regardless of letter by their name) is softer than the Charmon extra soft the populace is hoarding right now
THIS.
I long for leaders (from either party) like FDR, Eisenhower, JFK, or Reagan. All four would have a steady hand guiding us through this crisis.
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THIS.
I long for leaders (from either party) like FDR, Eisenhower, JFK, or Reagan. All four would have a steady hand guiding us through this crisis.
Politics doesn't work like that anymore.
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Politics doesn't work like that anymore.
Yet another reason for compulsory voting.
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Yet another reason for compulsory voting.
Oh that old chestnut
On the plus side it would virtually ensue everyone got the Coronavirus
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Oh that old chestnut
On the plus side it would virtually ensue everyone got the Coronavirus
The Internet doesn’t have to be just for Scoop and porn anymore.
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The Internet doesn’t have to be just for Scoop and porn anymore.
But is there enough bandwidth for more than Scoop and porn?
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But is there enough bandwidth for more than Scoop and porn?
This is why we haven't gone into full lockdown, the ISPs are concerned if everyone is home all the Scooping and porning will collapse the internet
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This is why we haven't gone into full lockdown, the ISPs are concerned if everyone is home all the Scooping and porning will collapse the internet
Didn't Cheeks worry about us running out of internet? Guess we will just have to dig the internet well deeper to keep the flow coming!
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This is why we haven't gone into full lockdown, the ISPs are concerned if everyone is home all the Scooping and porning will collapse the internet
This is why the mods banned cheeks in the first place. Frees up capacity for quarantined scoopers.
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Didn't Cheeks worry about us running out of internet? Guess we will just have to dig the internet well deeper to keep the flow coming!
Thankfully new byte fracking technologies have dramatically increased bandwidth supply.
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This is why the mods banned cheeks in the first place. Frees up capacity for quarantined scoopers.
Score!
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Thoughts on buying Boeing? Down to $158
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Personally, still don't like Boeing until they fix their problems.
Per my plan to invest on the way down, added to Amazon, Amgen, and the SPY so far today.
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I've been in about 98% bonds now for a little over 2 weeks. Was originally told to target the S&P at 2500 but have now been told to wait for 2350-2400 which was the close on 12/24/18. Still a lot more bottom to drop out.
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I've been in about 98% bonds now for a little over 2 weeks. Was originally told to target the S&P at 2500 but have now been told to wait for 2350-2400 which was the close on 12/24/18. Still a lot more bottom to drop out.
Yup, seems probable that we aren't at bottom, but I'll be easing in larger and larger amounts the further we go down, because I have no idea where the bottom is or when it will suddenly turnaround.
The 2008/2009 financial crisis had a very different genesis of course, but the market movement and unbridled fear might be very similar.
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Y’all think we’re close to bottom? I’ve read that China is on the upswing when it comes to Corona. They’re down to single digit new cases now, and have a population 4x the U.S.
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Y’all think we’re close to bottom? I’ve read that China is on the upswing when it comes to Corona. They’re down to single digit new cases now, and have a population 4x the U.S.
I don't. I think the virus has to actually start spreading and affecting the US in serious numbers. So far we have anticipatory panic. If we're really following the infection path of Italy (and thus far it seems like we might be simply by numbers), then we're 7-13 days behind them. I think the market won't start putting in a bottom until we really start get hit here.
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I have been short SPY since 2/21 and had the stomach to hold every day, with taking some off the table on the down days and adding on the rallies. Went long SPY about an hour ago and hope I have the stomach to ride this out as well. There will be economic stimulus announced in today or over next few days. Only question mark I have on this upcoming announce is will anyone care.
On one of the earlier pages on this thread I warned about the economic fallout from the virus and I was spooked going back to the Wuhan announcement, but things have turned even far worse than my fears. Two weeks ago my fears changed from the supply side to the demand side and that is far more troubling. Not sure what the answer is but we are living crazy frickin time in history.
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Think long term. People pulling their money out making same mistake as 2008 and never fully recovered.
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Just bought 400 shares of OXY at $10.90
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Thoughts on buying Boeing? Down to $158
I am/would. The Covid-19 is going to dominate the news for the next month likely and that could/should give Boeing the runway to complete their efforts and restore the Max fleet to operation
Sorry for the pun it was just sitting there wait to take off
Sorry again
Sorry
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I don't. I think the virus has to actually start spreading and affecting the US in serious numbers. So far we have anticipatory panic. If we're really following the infection path of Italy (and thus far it seems like we might be simply by numbers), then we're 7-13 days behind them. I think the market won't start putting in a bottom until we really start get hit here.
I’d agree with you if we didn’t just do what we did overnight. You’re getting everything right now. And compound by the market rejecting any and everything the President has said. So it’s rejecting bounces on the promise of stimulus or relief packages. Those bills and money injections will put in a backstop and push us up, but we’re see it won’t happen until it’s on paper. But the risk is all to the upside here, we have corrected so far already. We’ve already washed out and baked in drops for companies that miss upcoming earnings, lower guidance, etc..
Look at companies that should “thrive” in a quarantine situation. Streaming companies, TDOC, ZM, etc.. they are all being sold off without regard to their business situations or potentials.
The more indiscriminate 100-200 slashes on the SPX we see in panicked reactionary moves, the less I feel we have prolonged downside coming
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I am/would. The Covid-19 is going to dominate the news for the next month likely and that could/should give Boeing the runway to complete their efforts and restore the Max fleet to operation
Sorry for the pun it was just sitting there wait to take off
Sorry again
Sorry
This is also going to do serious damage to most every company. We've already written 2020 off and are excited for much better comps in 2021.
Edit: The only sector of the US economy that has been doing well in recent months / quarters is the service sector which is about to get HAMMERED!!!!!
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I’d agree with you if we didn’t just do what we did overnight. You’re getting everything right now. And compound by the market rejecting any and everything the President has said. So it’s rejecting bounces on the promise of stimulus or relief packages. Those bills and money injections will put in a backstop and push us up, but we’re see it won’t happen until it’s on paper. But the risk is all to the upside here, we have corrected so far already. We’ve already washed out and baked in drops for companies that miss upcoming earnings, lower guidance, etc..
Look at companies that should “thrive” in a quarantine situation. Streaming companies, TDOC, ZM, etc.. they are all being sold off without regard to their business situations or potentials.
The more indiscriminate 100-200 slashes on the SPX we see in panicked reactionary moves, the less I feel we have prolonged downside coming
I hope you're right and I just miss the bottom. I'll miss the chance to turn cash into long gains and that's okay.
I'm still apprehensive that we are going to see a bad reaction when our diagnosis numbers surge and our hospital capacity tap out.
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Thoughts on buying Boeing? Down to $158
I might be buying a little. The options market seems to think it's poised for a rebound, but I'm heavily into GE calls right now, so I'm hesitant about putting too many eggs in the MAX basket.
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Thoughts on Disney? Kind of a really mixed bag for them
-ESPN and theme parks will be a huge drag
-ABC News and Disney+ should see a boom
Side note, the fact that Netflix is down so much tells me the market is super irrational right now. This whole environment seems to play right into Netflix wheelhouse
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Side note, the fact that Netflix is down so much tells me the market is super irrational right now. This whole environment seems to play right into Netflix wheelhouse
Too many (myself included) index fund investors. I don't have time or patience to research individual stocks anymore, so I mostly just use index funds to catch market trends.
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Too many (myself included) index fund investors. I don't have time or patience to research individual stocks anymore, so I mostly just use index funds to catch market trends.
Yup.
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Thoughts on Disney? Kind of a really mixed bag for them
-ESPN and theme parks will be a huge drag
-ABC News and Disney+ should see a boom
Side note, the fact that Netflix is down so much tells me the market is super irrational right now. This whole environment seems to play right into Netflix wheelhouse
Net-negative. You are also forgetting blockbuster movies (Marvel, Pixar, etc.), which no one will attend in theaters for the foreseeable future. But impact is definitely cushioned by some of their diversification (i.e. TV and streaming).
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Net-negative. You are also forgetting blockbuster movies (Marvel, Pixar, etc.), which no one will attend in theaters for the foreseeable future. But impact is definitely cushioned by some of their diversification (i.e. TV and streaming).
Netflix is also completely funded issuing junk bonds so that will weigh on d/e ratios and is much riskier than t-bills.
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Thoughts on Disney? Kind of a really mixed bag for them
-ESPN and theme parks will be a huge drag
-ABC News and Disney+ should see a boom
Side note, the fact that Netflix is down so much tells me the market is super irrational right now. This whole environment seems to play right into Netflix wheelhouse
my thoughts exactly plus gilead sciences, along with a few others attempting to develop a coronavirus vaccine are all down
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-nine-companies-are-working-on-coronavirus-treatments-or-vaccines-heres-where-things-stand-2020-03-06
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Too many (myself included) index fund investors. I don't have time or patience to research individual stocks anymore, so I mostly just use index funds to catch market trends.
I do the autopilot thing with 95%+ of our investments, but keep a small pool in cash that I use to buy and sell stocks for the sport of it (and hopefully some profit).
In stocks, I have some T, MSFT and INTC that has gotten hammered the last couple of days but will be fine in the long run, and just bought some GOOGL (first at $1255, more at $1200). I might get a few more shares of GOOGL now that it's around $1100, and then hang back for a while. I won't be surprised if they all dip more, but I'm confident those companies will be as good as any long-term.
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Much (Most) of the stock selling is institutional investors. This is a 2-part thing. 1, When individual investors panic and sell their funds and ETFs, managers have no choice but to sell the stocks within those funds and ETFs; 2, Fund managers know they are judged on performance so they sell at the first, second and third signs of trouble.
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I do the autopilot thing with 95%+ of our investments, but keep a small pool in cash that I use to buy and sell stocks for the sport of it (and hopefully some profit).
In stocks, I have some T, MSFT and INTC that has gotten hammered the last couple of days but will be fine in the long run, and just bought some GOOGL (first at $1255, more at $1200). I might get a few more shares of GOOGL now that it's around $1100, and then hang back for a while. I won't be surprised if they all dip more, but I'm confident those companies will be as good as any long-term.
I added DLR (data center REIT) and have networking stocks on the list for the next tranche. But I like the thought of adding more GOOGL as well.
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my thoughts exactly plus gilead sciences, along with a few others attempting to develop a coronavirus vaccine are all down
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-nine-companies-are-working-on-coronavirus-treatments-or-vaccines-heres-where-things-stand-2020-03-06
Bios are traditionally super news dependent anyways, but this is that on hyper speed. Basically it completely hinges on news. Look at MRNA, look at INO. They have news and bounce, but if there isn’t a follow up the next day, they sell it off and more. They won’t let anything just float. If anything passes as it pertains to tests or trails, they will slingshot past those levels and more, but there is no way they will just float higher on promise like they would in more positive market conditions.
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Gonna pop the circuit breaker tomorrow morning again
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Gonna pop the circuit breaker tomorrow morning again
Remember, you don’t lose until you sell. ;D
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Remember, you don’t lose until you sell. ;D
Not retiring anytime soon, so I'm not pulling out. If anything, we've been holding back for a recession... Just didn't think we'd have this sort of cliff to fall from!
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https://twitter.com/KyleKulinski/status/1238275046621229062?s=19
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I see green arrows
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Guys, if you are under 50, time to max out those 401ks. I have never hit the limit before but I am planning on doing so for 2020 now.
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Well, that close was, um, optimistic! Get ready for another zag, or is it a zig? On Monday.
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Well, that close was, um, optimistic! Get ready for another zag, or is it a zig? On Monday.
Yeah, please someone explain what happened in the last 20 minutes. I'm guessing that was the fastest +1000 points in the history of the market.
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You call this investing?
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Yeah, please someone explain what happened in the last 20 minutes. I'm guessing that was the fastest +1000 points in the history of the market.
A market that was aggressively oversold on hysteria and panic responded to the first semblance of a plan from the administration including testing implementation and other initiatives.
I told my buddy earlier today as he was clamoring how bad things still were, how he expected much more blood. From last Wed to this morning, the market was down 20%. That was on top of nearly 10% from highs in the week and change preceeding. No matter the severity, that is a historic and unprecedented drop that dwarfed the swiftness of 2008 for example. Even if there is still more bad news in terms of reduced guidance and missed earnings, let that come out and the market drift lower instead of these calamitous drops.
His speech was borderline terrible in parts and there was bluster, but it was still the first time it seemed like there was a handle on this in some fashion. I personally expect to see a further drawn out bounce, and then we see if we work lower in a more orderly fashion.
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It is up because some semblance of a plan to respond was announced today.
All credit goes to Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has been one of the big heroes thus far.
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Investors LOVE when publicly listed companies are doing the heavy lifting. Administration made clear today they'll lean heavily on the private sector to mitigate their early flailing response.
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A market that was aggressively oversold on hysteria and panic responded to the first semblance of a plan from the administration including testing implementation and other initiatives.
I told my buddy earlier today as he was clamoring how bad things still were, how he expected much more blood. From last Wed to this morning, the market was down 20%. That was on top of nearly 10% from highs in the week and change preceeding. No matter the severity, that is a historic and unprecedented drop that dwarfed the swiftness of 2008 for example. Even if there is still more bad news in terms of reduced guidance and missed earnings, let that come out and the market drift lower instead of these calamitous drops.
His speech was borderline terrible in parts and there was bluster, but it was still the first time it seemed like there was a handle on this in some fashion. I personally expect to see a further drawn out bounce, and then we see if we work lower in a more orderly fashion.
Monday will respond to two days of news.
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Monday will respond to two days of news.
Ok Dr Doom. I was trying answer a question someone had. And the market has been reacting to worst case scenarios without governmental plan or strategy all week.
But sure, given your worst case vision on everything surrounding this, we probably will blow out another 2-3 limit down days and crash through 2000 on the SPX.
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Ok Dr Doom. I was trying answer a question someone had. And the market has been reacting to worst case scenarios without governmental plan or strategy all week.
But sure, given your worst case vision on everything surrounding this, we probably will blow out another 2-3 limit down days and crash through 2000 on the SPX.
No need to get bent out of shape, I made no judgement, nor prognostication about the next two days. But they will determine the market Monday. If the US pulls what Spain just did, and added 40% to their covid numbers, the market will tremble again.
I didn't say it was deserved, just a fact of life. People are reactionary, and the market is proof.
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No need to get bent out of shape, I made no judgement, nor prognostication about the next two days. But they will determine the market Monday. If the US pulls what Spain just did, and added 40% to their covid numbers, the market will tremble again.
I didn't say it was deserved, just a fact of life. People are reactionary, and the market is proof.
Since the CDC only managed 77 tests, just 19 more than the Utah Jazz last week, I doubt the reported numbers jump significantly.
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Since the CDC only managed 77 tests, just 19 more than the Utah Jazz last week, I doubt the reported numbers jump significantly.
I take your point, but I'm sure some more results will come in over the weekend.
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Since the CDC only managed 77 tests, just 19 more than the Utah Jazz last week, I doubt the reported numbers jump significantly.
You must have missed this page, in which the CDC is admitting public health labs are testing about 2000/day, and the
CDC is doing like 25/day.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html
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Local news today.
Yale New Haven replicates COVID-19 test; hopes to use it on 200 samples a day
By Mary E. O’Leary Updated 9:15 pm EDT, Friday, March 13, 2020
www.nhregister.com/news/coronavirus/amp/YNNH-replicates-the-COVID-19-test-will-be-able-15129666.php
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You must have missed this page, in which the CDC is admitting public health labs are testing about 2000/day, and the
CDC is doing like 25/day.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html
Is this an argument for privatization?
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Local news today.
Yale New Haven replicates COVID-19 test; hopes to use it on 200 samples a day
By Mary E. O’Leary Updated 9:15 pm EDT, Friday, March 13, 2020
www.nhregister.com/news/coronavirus/amp/YNNH-replicates-the-COVID-19-test-will-be-able-15129666.php
Same here at Mayo. They're hoping to run 200-300/day to start.
https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-develops-test-to-detect-covid-19/
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Is this an argument for privatization?
Competent government
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Competent government
Thank you.
Maybe don't fire a unnatural carnal knowledge ton of people and at the same time drastically cut budget.
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Is this an argument for privatization?
Nope. In this case, I wish it was municipalization...but this is the system we've got.
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I would expect a big drop coming early Monday. S&P futures were trading down at the end of the day Friday. They lost about 1/3 of the rally during the presser.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1238902522313572352 (https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1238902522313572352)
Jim is a good follow also an MU BUAD Alum.
He also mentioned we are running out of cash.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/james-bianco-117619152_fed-may-announce-commercial-paper-facilities-activity-6644969682522771457-rcute one/ (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/james-bianco-117619152_fed-may-announce-commercial-paper-facilities-activity-6644969682522771457-rcute one/)
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Fed just cut interest rate by a full point....
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/business/economy/federal-reserve-coronavirus.html
Probably a boost in the short-term, but the long-term outcome is still FAR more dependent on whether we can flatten the covid-19 curve.
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Goldman just cut US GDP forecast to -5% EOY. Was at 0% going into Q1. We're about to enter a world of suck.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1239301815847567360 (https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1239301815847567360)
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Goldman just cut US GDP forecast to -5% EOY. Was at 0% going into Q1. We're about to enter a world of suck.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1239301815847567360 (https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1239301815847567360)
This is like slamming on the brakes when driving 100mph. Really at this point the question is how long are we stopped and how hard is the recovery.
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Fed just cut interest rate by a full point....
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/business/economy/federal-reserve-coronavirus.html
Probably a boost in the short-term, but the long-term outcome is still FAR more dependent on whether we can flatten the covid-19 curve.
Yep, probably puts in more of a backstop, stems the aggressive bleeding, but we will continue to drift downwards in the future months if we don’t get a handle on this
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Futures just opened at -800.
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Futures just opened at -800.
Down -1100 now.
WORLD OF SUCK!
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Fed just cut interest rate by a full point....
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/business/economy/federal-reserve-coronavirus.html
Probably a boost in the short-term, but the long-term outcome is still FAR more dependent on whether we can flatten the covid-19 curve.
To me, as an investor this seems like pure panic. I get the idea, but confidence is shaken.
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To me, as an investor this seems like pure panic. I get the idea, but confidence is shaken.
The issue is government is putting panic on the wrong items - should be focused on health crisis - the market will work itself out. We're screwed.
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To me, as an investor this seems like pure panic. I get the idea, but confidence is shaken.
Speaking of confidence. The people standing behind the president as he spoke, did not look confident. They looked sick, one even shaking his head.
If your read body language, it was not a good read.
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Futures just opened at -800.
Not a big surprise :-\
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Speaking of confidence. The people standing behind the president as he spoke, did not look confident. They looked sick, one even shaking his head.
If your read body language, it was not a good read.
Until he learns to just shut up, things will continue to go down the tubes. Lies and bitterness do not stem a crisis on Wall Street.
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Until he learns to just shut up, things will continue to go down the tubes. Lies and bitterness do not stem a crisis on Wall Street.
And bravado.
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Speaking of confidence. The people standing behind the president as he spoke, did not look confident. They looked sick, one even shaking his head.
If your read body language, it was not a good read.
Agreed. He might know how to work a camera, but he needs work at inspiring public confidence in times of crisis. Like the other day when he was asked if he took any responsibility for the delays in covid-19 testing and he responded "No, I don't take any responsibility at all." Smart answer would have been to say something like "yes, but we are using that as a learning moment to make up ground" or something similar.
Anyhow, we're a long way from "the buck stops here."
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To me, as an investor this seems like pure panic. I get the idea, but confidence is shaken.
+1. I mean, The market tanked when they had the emergency .50 cut. I guess they wanted to double down on the panic. Idiots.
And by idiots - I mean - there's reason to panic. They need to pump 1.5 trillion over the next 3 weeks just to keep money flowing properly. That's not sustainable or fiscally responsible And effective negative interest on fed funds to keep folks afloat. Yikes. I've been expecting a correction, but this has even me frightened.
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Temporary UBI?
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Well, we're now basically Japan - for the last 20 years...
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/02/06/business/financial-markets/dissecting-bank-japans-zero-rate-policy-20-years/#.Xm7WxahKiMo
Instead, two decades of rock-bottom interest rates have hurt the nation of savers, who have responded by tightening their belts. Low-cost loans have propped up unprofitable companies while big business has piled into investing overseas as the market shrinks at home.
Those two decades of failure to reflate the economy have created a whole generation of consumers with little understanding or expectation of rising prices, complicating Kuroda’s efforts even further. Banks and debt markets have been caught in the crossfire, with negative rates crushing the profit margin on lending and the BOJ’s massive asset buying under quantitative easing sucking the life out of bond trading.
While it’s hard to call the world’s greatest monetary experiment a success, it’s also clear things would have been far worse without it. The BOJ has got the better of deflation, even if the consumer price index dips into the red briefly in 2019 because of low oil prices and one-off changes in phone and education costs. And instead of economic malaise, Japan has enjoyed a modest expansion in recent years, with unemployment near the lowest since 1992 and wage growth, though tepid, still the best in many years.
How it works for our economy (and the world) is yet to be seen.
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Futures just opened at -800.
S&P 500 futures trigger overnight limit-down band of -5%. At this point, they can trade higher, but not lower, until the cash market opens at 9:30 a.m. ET.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3551843-s-and-p-500-futures-tumble-limit-down-15-minutes-after-open-be-quiet-evening
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Get ready for a day of bad history. World of Suck.
Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is trading is the pre-market session without limits.
As I write the bid is 244.04, or an S&P 500 index level of 2440.4.
Friday's S&P 500 close was 2711. So SPY implies 271 point loss or 10%.
It is about 1.4% UNDER last Thursday's low of 2478.
(1/4)
When the NYSE opens ....
* Down 7%, 15 minute halt.
* Re-open and slide again. Down 13% is a 1 hour halt ("level 2" limit has never been reached).
* Reopen and go down 20%, close for the day (unless it is with less than 30 minutes before the close, then remains open).
(2/4)
Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Watching Bloomberg and the "experts" are suggesting other things the Fed can do.
Try this, they did all they can. IT IS NOT WORKING! THE FED PUT NO LONGER WORKS!!
Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
(3/4)
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
2h
Right now the S&P 500 would be 28% off its all-time high (set less than a month ago!)
UK FTSE, down 34%
German DAX, down 38%
Italy FTSEMIB, down 41%
US stock have further room to fall just to catch up to Europe.
(4/4)
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
1h
Trading halt levels today (March 16) ....
S&P 500 CASH
* -7% (-189.77 pts) to 2521.25 (15 minute halt)
* -13% (-352.43) to 2358.59 (1 hour halt)
* -20% (-542.20) to 2168.82 (done for the day)
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Crude Oil
I have been short on Crude Oil since March 5, 2020. Still looking for more down side movement.
Oil Falls Into $20 Range As The Fed Cuts Interest Rates To Zero
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Nears-20-Range-Despite-0-Interest-Rates.html
Goldman Sachs: Prepare For $20 Oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Prepare-For-20-Oil.html
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The good news is that Heisey's Apple prediction might finally come true!
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Viral Spiral Playbook: Navigating The Bear Market
https://www.koyfin.com/research/2020/03/16/viral-spiral-coronavirus-impact-on-stocks/
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I mean, you had stocks trading at historically high multiples that were then hit by a black swan event. Fed rate cuts are a blunt tool that is going to have a limited impact IMO. I think it would be much more useful to provide stimulus rebates, i.e., checks directly to individuals as was done in 2008. Businesses don't have any reason to use cheap funds to expand in the midst of this situation, but individuals that are out of work will certainly spend it.
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I mean, you had stocks trading at historically high multiples that were then hit by a black swan event. Fed rate cuts are a blunt tool that is going to have a limited impact IMO. I think it would be much more useful to provide stimulus rebates, i.e., checks directly to individuals as was done in 2008. Businesses don't have any reason to use cheap funds to expand in the midst of this situation, but individuals that are out of work will certainly spend it.
Two black swan events, actually. Had the coronavirus not been a thing, the Saudi-Russia oil battle would be dominating financial headlines.
Otherwise, agree totally with what you say.
Over the years, increased unemployment benefits have been a great financial stimulus because these folks immediately put the money back into the economy. Unemployment is low now, but the point is the same -- give people in need money to spend right now. Don't give it to corporations who will pocket it, invest it, use it for long-term acquisitions, use it for buybacks, etc.
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Two black swan events, actually. Had the coronavirus not been a thing, the Saudi-Russia oil battle would be dominating financial headlines.
Otherwise, agree totally with what you say.
Over the years, increased unemployment benefits have been a great financial stimulus because these folks immediately put the money back into the economy. Unemployment is low now, but the point is the same -- give people in need money to spend right now. Don't give it to corporations who will pocket it, invest it, use it for long-term acquisitions, use it for buybacks, etc.
That's all we ever do.
You really want people to stay home? Don't make them stress about paying their bills temporarily. Give individuals money.
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I mean, you had stocks trading at historically high multiples that were then hit by a black swan event. Fed rate cuts are a blunt tool that is going to have a limited impact IMO. I think it would be much more useful to provide stimulus rebates, i.e., checks directly to individuals as was done in 2008. Businesses don't have any reason to use cheap funds to expand in the midst of this situation, but individuals that are out of work will certainly spend it.
One thing this does, is basically pass the baton back to the legislators and force their hand. Nobody can scapegoat the FED now that they took this action. We now need direct political action/intervention.
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I mean, you had stocks trading at historically high multiples that were then hit by a black swan event. Fed rate cuts are a blunt tool that is going to have a limited impact IMO. I think it would be much more useful to provide stimulus rebates, i.e., checks directly to individuals as was done in 2008. Businesses don't have any reason to use cheap funds to expand in the midst of this situation, but individuals that are out of work will certainly spend it.
The market turn down was not a “black swan event.” Market Long-term indicators were very overbought and they warn us weeks before the correction.
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The market turn down was not a “black swan event.” Market Long-term indicators were very overbought and they warn us weeks before the correction.
The covid-19 crisis is a black swan event, which accelerated/amplified any market turndown that might have otherwise occurred
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Helicopter Money
Helicopter money would mean the Fed taking the extraordinary step of going over the head of America's duly elected politicians to take action. If enacted, it could give Congress the right to end the Fed — the very antithesis of everything chair Jerome Powell has been fighting for since he was confirmed.
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That's all we ever do.
You really want people to stay home? Don't make them stress about paying their bills temporarily. Give individuals money.
Corporate give-backs have a better chance of ending up in campaign coffers; unfortunately, both parties know this all too well, which is why that's always the default.
Honestly, I'm not sure where we go from here. We are in a health/wellness crisis, not an economic/productivity/employment crisis. Granted, the latter can have a profound effect on the former, but I would argue that if we're going to print money, give it into the NIH and CDC to partner with the private sector to solve the health/wellness problem so all of the other problems can resolve themselves.
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The covid-19 crisis is a black swan event, which accelerated/amplified any market turndown that might have otherwise occurred
Are you stating that the market was not very overbought?
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The covid-19 crisis is a black swan event, which accelerated/amplified any market turndown that might have otherwise occurred
I am having a difficult time understanding why anyone would be in a very overbought market. Actually there is a term for this “Chasing The Market.”
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Corporate give-backs have a better chance of ending up in campaign coffers; unfortunately, both parties know this all too well, which is why that's always the default.
Honestly, I'm not sure where we go from here. We are in a health/wellness crisis, not an economic/productivity/employment crisis. Granted, the latter can have a profound effect on the former, but I would argue that if we're going to print money, give it into the NIH and CDC to partner with the private sector to solve the health/wellness problem so all of the other problems can resolve themselves.
This. If the federal government and private sector were to treat this as a "war time event" and focus all effort and as much manufacturing capacity as possible on output that is directly related to the health care crunch this will steady the ship. It will give investors sectors and companies to start investing in, etc.
What I mean by all this, where piratical start converting manufacturing capacity to make things like masks, respirators, medical supplies, hand sanitizer, soap, lab equipment, materiale for testing, etc. Whereas in WWII we converted auto manufacturing to build plans, tanks, and trucks we can convert Food & Bev, etc manufacturing to health care focused manufacturing until the crisis passes.
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What I mean by all this, where piratical start converting manufacturing capacity to make things like masks, respirators, medical supplies, hand sanitizer, soap, lab equipment, materiale for testing, etc. Whereas in WWII we converted auto manufacturing to build plans, tanks, and trucks we can convert Food & Bev, etc manufacturing to health care focused manufacturing until the crisis passes.
Getting more help from companies that are able to produce needed items would be helpful. But to play devil's advocate here, I think a key difference between the epidemic and war-time scenarios is timing. Using China as an example, by the time companies to change up manufacturing lines and re-allocate resources to produce these items in mass, there may no longer be a significant need for them. Wars last for years, which gives companies time to respond and help. This virus may only last a few months.
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I am having a difficult time understanding why anyone would be in a very overbought market. Actually there is a term for this “Chasing The Market.”
1) The market was "overbought" for years, but with historically low interest rates TINA (there is no alternative).
2) The axiom that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid applies
3) If you don't think the coronavirus is a black swan event I don't know what to tell you.
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Getting more help from companies that are able to produce needed items would be helpful. But to play devil's advocate here, I think a key difference between the epidemic and war-time scenarios is timing. Using China as an example, by the time companies to change up manufacturing lines and re-allocate resources to produce these items in mass, there may no longer be a significant need for them. Wars last for years, which gives companies time to respond and help. This virus may only last a few months.
Some manufacturers can convert in days, especially the chemical and process industry. We can't assume this will last weeks at this point, I'd say plan for at least 4 months, so start moving now. Additionally, it will create a stimulative effect as the plants wiill need to "retool" to some extent, their suppliers will need to respond, etc. and then they will need to revert back. And we are going to burn through all of our back log so we're going to have to restock for sure when this ends so this is really at least a 12-18 month event.
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1) The market was "overbought" for years, but with historically low interest rates TINA (there is no alternative).
2) The axiom that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid applies
3) If you don't think the coronavirus is a black swan event I don't know what to tell you.
All this.
There were many companies with expected earnings growth in the low single digits trading at 30x earnings or more. It's just not sustainable, and those low-margin-for-error companies often get hit hard when the market swoons.
It's one reason utilities - often seen as a safe harbor - have been some of the hardest-hit companies lately. I mean, I love NEE's business, but there was no way it should have been trading at 32x earnings. Even after this correction, it's STILL well overvalued.
SRE was bid up to $162 - that was 23x forward earnings even though growth is only expected to be 5%. As I write this, it's trading around $96. That's more like it.
Etc, etc, etc. And not just utilities either, obviously.
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Some manufacturers can convert in days, especially the chemical and process industry. We can't assume this will last weeks at this point, I'd say plan for at least 4 months, so start moving now. Additionally, it will create a stimulative effect as the plants wiill need to "retool" to some extent, their suppliers will need to respond, etc. and then they will need to revert back. And we are going to burn through all of our back log so we're going to have to restock for sure when this ends so this is really at least a 12-18 month event.
^agree fully.
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Basically, if I were advising the federal government I would move to a war time footing with the enemy being anything that threatens public health. Unless it is basic infrastructure or military I would refocus and reposition it to public health. One, it will practically make a positive impact on what's going on, but almost as important it will give people a focus and purpose that if they aren't in the medical field they just don't feel right now. It will also distract wall street and give them something quantitative to focus on.
Think of it as Churchhill rallying England during the Blitz. Only this time its Covid-19 instead of the Nazis
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Basically, if I were advising the federal government I would move to a war time footing with the enemy being anything that threatens public health. Unless it is basic infrastructure or military I would refocus and reposition it to public health. One, it will practically make a positive impact on what's going on, but almost as important it will give people a focus and purpose that if they aren't in the medical field they just don't feel right now. It will also distract wall street and give them something quantitative to focus on.
Think of it as Churchhill rallying England during the Blitz. Only this time its Covid-19 instead of the Nazis
100% agree.
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Is that really necessary at this point? We aren't fighting a lengthy war here. We are fighting a virus that could rise fast and overwhelm our medical system - but in the short term. If you look at China, Japan, etc., the new cases level off and the health system can manage. I fully expect that by and large people are going to be back to their normal routine in less than a month with only items only like "less than 50 at a public event" remaining.
That's what I don't understand about helicoptering cash in right now. A lot of people aren't spending because they've been told to stay home. But unless something compromises their underlining employment, they are likely just delaying big purchases and going to hit restaurants again when the everything lifts. I think its the same for business spending as well.
Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I think most of this stimulous would be better off a month or two from now when the health crisis lessens and the financial implications are more known.
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Basically, if I were advising the federal government I would move to a war time footing with the enemy being anything that threatens public health. Unless it is basic infrastructure or military I would refocus and reposition it to public health. One, it will practically make a positive impact on what's going on, but almost as important it will give people a focus and purpose that if they aren't in the medical field they just don't feel right now. It will also distract wall street and give them something quantitative to focus on.
Think of it as Churchhill rallying England during the Blitz. Only this time its Covid-19 instead of the Nazis
Can't argue with any of this. The market has been reacting to the lack of a coherent plan as much as the outbreak itself. The market hates uncertainty.
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1) The market was "overbought" for years, but with historically low interest rates TINA (there is no alternative).
2) The axiom that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid applies
3) If you don't think the coronavirus is a black swan event I don't know what to tell you.
Mr. Smith, Trading is a zero sum game. It appears to me you are holding losing stocks. I am NOT holding loosing stocks because l don’t chase the market or remain in a very overbought market. You should buy low and sell high. If you buy high and try to sell higher someone will be waiting to take your money! Low=Oversold and High=Overbought. You just keep blaming you loss on a “black swan” instead understanding the market you will loose. Zero sum game!
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But unless something compromises their underlining employment, they are likely just delaying big purchases and going to hit restaurants again when the everything lifts.
Many, many people in hospitality, entertainment, travel, and bar/restaurants industries are going to be without a paycheck. The unfortunate reality is that a lot of those workers are paycheck-to-paycheck. They won't be so much skipping big purchases as trying to figure out how to pay rent and bills.
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Mr. Smith, Trading is a zero sum game. It appears to me you are holding losing stocks. I am NOT holding loosing stocks because l don’t chase the market or remain in a very overbought market. You should buy low and sell high. If you buy high and try to sell higher someone will be waiting to take your money! Low=Oversold and High=Overbought. You just keep blaming you loss on a “black swan” instead understanding the market you will loose. Zero sum game!
Oh, that's how this is supposed to work?
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I really hesitate to bring this up but I think its relevant in the context of the investing thread. What are the long term impacts of this pandemic on the following:
-Insurance industry, both health and life
-if the mortality rate is relatively high, especially amongst the elderly, what does wealth transfer look like?
-what is the long term impacts on medicare and social security? More viable or less
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Trading is a zero sum game.
It appears you fundamentally don't understand what the stock market is
It appears to me you are holding losing stocks.
Some are underwater. Overall the value of my portfolio is multiples higher than what I paid for it. It's just ~25% lower than it was a week ago
I am NOT holding loosing stocks because l don’t chase the market
So you've been out of stocks since 2014 or so?
You should buy low and sell high.
Why didn't you say so? You should write a book and share your wisdom with the common folk
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Oh, that's how this is supposed to work?
Well your free to use the Smith method. Please let us all know how it works out for you.
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It appears you fundamentally don't understand what the stock market is
Some are underwater. Overall the value of my portfolio is multiples higher than what I paid for it. It's just ~25% lower than it was a week ago
So you've been out of stocks since 2014 or so?
Why didn't you say so? You should write a book and share your wisdom with the common folk
Mr. Smith you just keep trading your method. I will be there to take your money. :) BTW, I can make more money by taking money from fools than writing a book. :)
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Mr. Smith you just keep trading your method. I will be there to take you money. :)
How can you take my money if you are out of the market?
I mean, had you explained your unique buy low- sell high method before I'd be so much better off.
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How can you take my money if you are out of the market?
I mean, had you explained your unique buy low- sell high method before I'd be so much better off.
I will short your under water stock! :) You trade in the direction of the market. Mr. Smith do you know how to short a stock?
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I really hesitate to bring this up but I think its relevant in the context of the investing thread. What are the long term impacts of this pandemic on the following:
-Insurance industry, both health and life
-if the mortality rate is relatively high, especially amongst the elderly, what does wealth transfer look like?
-what is the long term impacts on medicare and social security? More viable or less
1. I don't think this moves the needle much on life insurance (as of now). Ultimately depends how many deaths there are. Health insurance premiums might go up a bit. Hard to measure the delta as they are already going up every year.
2. It just accelerates the wealth transfer that was already going to happen in the next 5-10 years.
3. Unclear. Most of the people dying are those taking from the system, not contributing. But if there are drastic cuts to employment then payroll tax contributions go down.
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As adorable as it is that you think you're better at this "making money" thing than everyone else - knock it off.
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People claiming the Coronavirus is not a black swan event and this is just all the result of an overbought market are the ones who have been bearish and short for 2+ years and getting obliterated. Now they are vindicated and refuse to acknowledge the outside factor that has justified their view, but rather their innate market savvy and intelligence that did so.
The SPX dropped 13% in 5-6 trading days. Then after a brief respite bounce, it dropped a further 22-23% 7 trading days. In full a 30% drop in basically 3 weeks. Contrast that with the crash of 2008 and its insanely sharper. That doesnt just happen cause a market is overheated. I buy it with a 5-10% correction, but not with a dive of this scale.
But go ahead Benjamin Graham, keep condescendingly explaining to everyone how much smarter and market wealthy you are than everyone else.
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I will short your under water stock! :) You trade in the direction of the market. Mr. Smith do you know how to short a stock?
Gosh golly, no! How does one do that?
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Gosh golly, no! How does one do that?
No commit, I will respect Rocky’s request.
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No commit, I will respect Rocky’s request.
LMAO. "Commit". Have fun swimming in your huge room of gold coins McDuck! ;D
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I really hesitate to bring this up but I think its relevant in the context of the investing thread. What are the long term impacts of this pandemic on the following:
-Insurance industry, both health and life
-if the mortality rate is relatively high, especially amongst the elderly, what does wealth transfer look like?
-what is the long term impacts on medicare and social security? More viable or less
The best man in my wedding works for BCBS Corp. and is currently working with one of their actuaries right now on their model for this. It's not pretty from he has told.
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Some manufacturers can convert in days, especially the chemical and process industry. We can't assume this will last weeks at this point, I'd say plan for at least 4 months, so start moving now. Additionally, it will create a stimulative effect as the plants wiill need to "retool" to some extent, their suppliers will need to respond, etc. and then they will need to revert back. And we are going to burn through all of our back log so we're going to have to restock for sure when this ends so this is really at least a 12-18 month event.
I don't see demand changing from consumers for 12-18 months. I expect to see a surge for 1-2 months, then a drop, then slightly higher than average levels for maybe 4-6 months. I'm guess by this time next year sales of these products will be similar to last year. My reference point here is Zika, since I've worked on these numbers for mosquito repellents. I think it could be a big risk for any supplier to over-allocate resources to things like sanitizers and masks given the trends we've seen in Asia.
From a public health perspective, I understand the idea of stopping this at all costs. But with a number of manufacturers available to produce these commodity-type products, I don't see a need for a huge national supply push. This is much different than modifying auto plants to create tanks and bombs that aren't widely produced outside of key events.
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LMAO. "Commit". Have fun swimming in your huge room of gold coins McDuck! ;D
I wonder if Curbina is a new Ners account. A "know-it-all who repeats his argument ad nauseam" is his typical profile.
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I don't see demand changing from consumers for 12-18 months. I expect to see a surge for 1-2 months, then a drop, then slightly higher than average levels for maybe 4-6 months. I'm guess by this time next year sales of these products will be similar to last year. My reference point here is Zika, since I've worked on these numbers for mosquito repellents. I think it could be a big risk for any supplier to over-allocate resources to things like sanitizers and masks given the trends we've seen in Asia.
From a public health perspective, I understand the idea of stopping this at all costs. But with a number of manufacturers available to produce these commodity-type products, I don't see a need for a huge national supply push. This is much different than modifying auto plants to create tanks and bombs that aren't widely produced outside of key events.
I appreciate the Zika reference point but it doesn't apply here. Zika was an area affect whereas Covid is everywhere. In other words Zika could generally be avoided by not going places that it was and it really only impacted a small demographic.
There will be large term cultural changes from the event even if the event itself only last two months. Demand for medical supplies and the like will be permanently altered for the foreseeable future and part of flattening the curve can be increasing the capacity level of hospitals.
Also the conversion and reconversion of plants (not all just some) has stimulative effects that are part of the appeal.
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One other long term investment thought....this will absolutely drive yet more automation in everything from customer service to manufacturing. I manage my companies business on remote management(monitoring and support) of OT assets on the plant floor and I'm getting hammered today with queries of what it would take to start deploying.
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I appreciate the Zika reference point but it doesn't apply here. Zika was an area affect whereas Covid is everywhere. In other words Zika could generally be avoided by not going places that it was and it really only impacted a small demographic.
There will be large term cultural changes from the event even if the event itself only last two months. Demand for medical supplies and the like will be permanently altered for the foreseeable future and part of flattening the curve can be increasing the capacity level of hospitals.
Also the conversion and reconversion of plants (not all just some) has stimulative effects that are part of the appeal.
Don't you think this ultimately comes down to the actual product and manufacturing process? If you don't have a line ready to produce N95 masks, you're probably months away, even if it is just retooling another line. On the other hand, if you're a personal care manufacturer converting some of your batching and filling equipment over to sanitizer production might be relatively minor.
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One other long term investment thought....this will absolutely drive yet more automation in everything from customer service to manufacturing. I manage my companies business on remote management(monitoring and support) of OT assets on the plant floor and I'm getting hammered today with queries of what it would take to start deploying.
Do you work for a publicly traded company? ;D
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Do you work for a publicly traded company? ;D
Yep, I work for a Fortune 500 company 😃
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There will be large term cultural changes from the event even if the event itself only last two months. Demand for medical supplies and the like will be permanently altered for the foreseeable future and part of flattening the curve can be increasing the capacity level of hospitals.
This is becoming bigger than SARS or MERS or H1N1, but I'm not sold on this changing long-term behaviors or consumer demands. If those events didn't affect large scale change, what's different this time around?
From a healthcare perspective, it's fair that medical supply companies could see some increases as hospitals re-think ICU capacity, but I still see that more as a short-term surge. Longer term, I'm guessing demands plateau at a slightly higher than average level. Investing capital to prepare for long-tail events is a big ask of companies and healthcare systems.
Full disclosure, in case it's not clear, this is not my area of expertise. But thinking through the pros/cons and the decision making process seems to have some parallels to situations I'm more familiar with.
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Are you stating that the market was not very overbought?
Did I say that? No, I did not. I simply said the covid-19 crisis is a black swan event. I did not state an opinion either way on the question you're raising.
RIF
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I wonder if Curbina is a new Ners account. A "know-it-all who repeats his argument ad nauseam" is his typical profile.
Sure acts like Ners.
I wonder if he thinks the market was overbought?
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This is becoming bigger than SARS or MERS or H1N1, but I'm not sold on this changing long-term behaviors or consumer demands. If those events didn't affect large scale change, what's different this time around?
From a healthcare perspective, it's fair that medical supply companies could see some increases as hospitals re-think ICU capacity, but I still see that more as a short-term surge. Longer term, I'm guessing demands plateau at a slightly higher than average level. Investing capital to prepare for long-tail events is a big ask of companies and healthcare systems.
Full disclosure, in case it's not clear, this is not my area of expertise. But thinking through the pros/cons and the decision making process seems to have some parallels to situations I'm more familiar with.
This event far surpasses any of those events just from an cultural impact let alone an economic one. This will change behaviors, we can't know what all of that looks like but we better start trying shape it instead of react to it.
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One other long term investment thought....this will absolutely drive yet more automation in everything from customer service to manufacturing. I manage my companies business on remote management(monitoring and support) of OT assets on the plant floor and I'm getting hammered today with queries of what it would take to start deploying.
yup
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I mean, you had stocks trading at historically high multiples that were then hit by a black swan event. Fed rate cuts are a blunt tool that is going to have a limited impact IMO. I think it would be much more useful to provide stimulus rebates, i.e., checks directly to individuals as was done in 2008. Businesses don't have any reason to use cheap funds to expand in the midst of this situation, but individuals that are out of work will certainly spend it.
Looks like Mitt just got on board with my plan :)
https://news.yahoo.com/mitt-romney-just-unveiled-plan-172500906.html
* Sen. Mitt Romney proposed a plan to send a $1,000 check to every American adult during the coronavirus outbreak.
* Romney's striking proposal echoed previous actions undertaken by the last Republican president, George W. Bush back in 2008.
* Economists are increasingly urging Congress to send checks to ramp up people's spending as the virus spreads and leads to mass business closures.
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Looks like Mitt just got on board with my plan :)
https://news.yahoo.com/mitt-romney-just-unveiled-plan-172500906.html
* Sen. Mitt Romney proposed a plan to send a $1,000 check to every American adult during the coronavirus outbreak.
* Romney's striking proposal echoed previous actions undertaken by the last Republican president, George W. Bush back in 2008.
* Economists are increasingly urging Congress to send checks to ramp up people's spending as the virus spreads and leads to mass business closures.
Somewhere, Andrew Yang is smiling.
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Looks like Mitt just got on board with my plan :)
https://news.yahoo.com/mitt-romney-just-unveiled-plan-172500906.html
* Sen. Mitt Romney proposed a plan to send a $1,000 check to every American adult during the coronavirus outbreak.
* Romney's striking proposal echoed previous actions undertaken by the last Republican president, George W. Bush back in 2008.
* Economists are increasingly urging Congress to send checks to ramp up people's spending as the virus spreads and leads to mass business closures.
It is a sound idea, economically.
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Is that really necessary at this point? We aren't fighting a lengthy war here. We are fighting a virus that could rise fast and overwhelm our medical system - but in the short term. If you look at China, Japan, etc., the new cases level off and the health system can manage. I fully expect that by and large people are going to be back to their normal routine in less than a month with only items only like "less than 50 at a public event" remaining.
That's what I don't understand about helicoptering cash in right now. A lot of people aren't spending because they've been told to stay home. But unless something compromises their underlining employment, they are likely just delaying big purchases and going to hit restaurants again when the everything lifts. I think its the same for business spending as well.
Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I think most of this stimulous would be better off a month or two from now when the health crisis lessens and the financial implications are more known.
I'm glad you said this, because I've been thinking this as well, and I didn't know if I was the only one with this mindset. I think if this is a two month window of crap (where we see the worst, the virus doesn't go away, but the curve is flattened, long term progress is made scientifically) I think there would be a flood of cash with pent up demand to be spent. Small businesses, entertainment venues, restaurants will get crushed in the next two months, but for people that don't lose their jobs, people are likely to spend like mad men if this is short term. It's two fold, people will have been sitting on cash because there's no where to spend it, and people will be sick of being quarantined.
I could be an utter fool for thinking this, but if you asked me what type of recession this was going to be, I'd say V shaped.
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What I mean by all this, where piratical start converting manufacturing capacity to make things like masks, respirators, medical supplies, hand sanitizer, soap, lab equipment, materiale for testing, etc. Whereas in WWII we converted auto manufacturing to build plans, tanks, and trucks we can convert Food & Bev, etc manufacturing to health care focused manufacturing until the crisis passes.
https://twitter.com/MCappetta/status/1239608804666417152 (https://twitter.com/MCappetta/status/1239608804666417152)
Good Business: First look as owner of @LouisVuitton @MoetUSA changes all perfume factories to mass produce hand sanitizer to be distributed for Free in France (Video: @LVMH)
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If you think about it, Amazon is in almost perfect shape to benefit from this.
People aren't going out to shop -- hello, Amazon!
People aren't going to the movies, sporting events or other entertainment venues -- hello, Amazon Prime TV!
Plus, there's the highly profitable AWS for corporate clients and other services.
I don't own AMZN. I'm mostly a dividend investor, and the shares have always seemed too pricey. But EPS growth is estimated at 22%, 40% and 37% the next three fiscal years, and that's pretty darn attractive. Might even be an understatement.
Hmmm.
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If you think about it, Amazon is in almost perfect shape to benefit from this.
People aren't going out to shop -- hello, Amazon!
People aren't going to the movies, sporting events or other entertainment venues -- hello, Amazon Prime TV!
Plus, there's the highly profitable AWS for corporate clients and other services.
I don't own AMZN. I'm mostly a dividend investor, and the shares have always seemed too pricey. But EPS growth is estimated at 22%, 40% and 37% the next three fiscal years, and that's pretty darn attractive. Might even be an understatement.
Hmmm.
Bonuses:
They pay very little in taxes
They treat their workers poorly
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If you think about it, Amazon is in almost perfect shape to benefit from this.
People aren't going out to shop -- hello, Amazon!
People aren't going to the movies, sporting events or other entertainment venues -- hello, Amazon Prime TV!
Plus, there's the highly profitable AWS for corporate clients and other services.
I don't own AMZN. I'm mostly a dividend investor, and the shares have always seemed too pricey. But EPS growth is estimated at 22%, 40% and 37% the next three fiscal years, and that's pretty darn attractive. Might even be an understatement.
Hmmm.
I bought AMZN, AMGN, DLR, and a touch of SPY on the 12th. AMZN has held up OK (down about 5%) while AMGN and DLR are up. SPY, not so much.
AMZN, DLR, and BABA on my list for tomorrow, possibly small adds to GOOGL and CSCO.
I have a plan that I am trying to have the fortitude to stick to. In two years we can revisit whether is was brilliant, idiotic, or somewhere in between.
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If you think about it, Amazon is in almost perfect shape to benefit from this.
People aren't going out to shop -- hello, Amazon!
People aren't going to the movies, sporting events or other entertainment venues -- hello, Amazon Prime TV!
Plus, there's the highly profitable AWS for corporate clients and other services.
I don't own AMZN. I'm mostly a dividend investor, and the shares have always seemed too pricey. But EPS growth is estimated at 22%, 40% and 37% the next three fiscal years, and that's pretty darn attractive. Might even be an understatement.
Hmmm.
And they’re hiring...
https://blog.aboutamazon.com/operations/amazon-opening-100000-new-roles
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Mark Cuban on Corona bailouts:
https://twitter.com/mcuban/status/1239901248167522304?s=19
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I bought JETS as a long play.
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I bought AMZN, AMGN, DLR, and a touch of SPY on the 12th. AMZN has held up OK (down about 5%) while AMGN and DLR are up. SPY, not so much.
AMZN, DLR, and BABA on my list for tomorrow, possibly small adds to GOOGL and CSCO.
I have a plan that I am trying to have the fortitude to stick to. In two years we can revisit whether is was brilliant, idiotic, or somewhere in between.
Important to have a plan and work it, TS. I wish you good fortune.
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Important to have a plan and work it, TS. I wish you good fortune.
Thanks very much. Are you thinking of doing an article on AMZN?
AMZN, DLR, and AMGN all bounced pretty strongly so far today so I am holding off on buying more for now. GOOGL and CSCO still watching, up today but not a lot.
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Payroll tax cuts?
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1239922886388985857?s=19
https://twitter.com/PeteThePlanner/status/1239926393015799808?s=19
IMO - this is a convenient step towards defunding SS/Medicare long-term. And, even if it's not, I think writing checks directly to Americans is a better way to distribute.
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Payroll tax cuts?
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1239922886388985857?s=19
https://twitter.com/PeteThePlanner/status/1239926393015799808?s=19
IMO - this is a convenient step towards defunding SS/Medicare long-term. And, even if it's not, I think writing checks directly to Americans is a better way to distribute.
A payroll tax cut is rather stupid to address the current issue. For one thing, it takes a long time to trickle into the economy. It also does nothing for all the workers temporarily out of a job.
Dumb.
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Agreed. Just pay the people, keep them with food and housing and let this blow over.
People who don't get food behave exactly as you'd expect them to. Very dangerously.
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Theoretically this is a short term event, there is an argument to be made with the right collection of policies that the recession will be a V (I mean both economic and healthcare/social policies). One of the key economic policies would be to execute an immediate fiscal stimulus to float spending for say the next month. I think that policy should be a direct pay check, whatever the number is(not sure why $1000 but sure) and hell you even means test it if you are trying to be a little bit fiscally conservative.
If this is a long term crisis(months) we've got a whole bunch of other problems that this won't solve so make the short term play and hope we can move close to normal as rapidly as possible.
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Theoretically this is a short term event, there is an argument to be made with the right collection of policies that the recession will be a V (I mean both economic and healthcare/social policies). One of the key economic policies would be to execute an immediate fiscal stimulus to float spending for say the next month. I think that policy should be a direct pay check, whatever the number is(not sure why $1000 but sure) and hell you even means test it if you are trying to be a little bit fiscally conservative.
If this is a long term crisis(months) we've got a whole bunch of other problems that this won't solve so make the short term play and hope we can move close to normal as rapidly as possible.
This is my hope as well.
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Payroll tax cuts?
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1239922886388985857?s=19
https://twitter.com/PeteThePlanner/status/1239926393015799808?s=19
IMO - this is a convenient step towards defunding SS/Medicare long-term. And, even if it's not, I think writing checks directly to Americans is a better way to distribute.
We have done this before. I can't recall when, but didn't we decrease SS to 4.2% from 6.2% for a year or so?
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We might be looking at a $3T deficit this year.
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Theoretically this is a short term event, there is an argument to be made with the right collection of policies that the recession will be a V (I mean both economic and healthcare/social policies). One of the key economic policies would be to execute an immediate fiscal stimulus to float spending for say the next month. I think that policy should be a direct pay check, whatever the number is(not sure why $1000 but sure) and hell you even means test it if you are trying to be a little bit fiscally conservative.
If this is a long term crisis(months) we've got a whole bunch of other problems that this won't solve so make the short term play and hope we can move close to normal as rapidly as possible.
Agreed.
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Theoretically this is a short term event, there is an argument to be made with the right collection of policies that the recession will be a V (I mean both economic and healthcare/social policies). One of the key economic policies would be to execute an immediate fiscal stimulus to float spending for say the next month. I think that policy should be a direct pay check, whatever the number is(not sure why $1000 but sure) and hell you even means test it if you are trying to be a little bit fiscally conservative.
If this is a long term crisis(months) we've got a whole bunch of other problems that this won't solve so make the short term play and hope we can move close to normal as rapidly as possible.
1. Give everyone $1,000
2. Eliminate the Social Security Wage Cap for 2020
You've just means tested it.
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I don't think anyone necessarily knows on this, but hypothetically on the $1000, would each kid qualify to? So in our house there's 5 of us, so are we getting $5k? Would the Feds know based on the number of people (spouse/dependents) on our 2019 tax return?
I think the Feds did something similar to this in 2008ish, did they send hard checks out to everyone? I seem to remember something like that happening, but I could be wrong.
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I don't think anyone necessarily knows on this, but hypothetically on the $1000, would each kid qualify to? So in our house there's 5 of us, so are we getting $5k? Would the Feds know based on the number of people (spouse/dependents) on our 2019 tax return?
I think the Feds did something similar to this in 2008ish, did they send hard checks out to everyone? I seem to remember something like that happening, but I could be wrong.
to each person 18+ who is not a dependent is how it was positioned (i believe - racking my brain here).
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to each person 18+ who is not a dependent is how it was positioned (i believe - racking my brain here).
Yikes, so families who need it most are hit hardest.
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Yikes, so families who need it most are hit hardest.
Found this online:
How Stimulus Checks Work
The last use of stimulus checks occurred when the U.S. economy entered a severe recession after the financial crisis of 2008. The Obama government estimated that sending out checks would prevent unemployment rates from going beyond 8 percent.
The government sent out checks in 2009 to those with at least $3,000 in qualifying income from, or in combination with, Social Security benefits, Veterans Affairs benefits, Railroad Retirement benefits and earned income. The checks amounted to:
- Eligible individuals—between $300 and $600
Joint filers—between $600 and $1,200
With eligible children—an additional $300 for each qualifying child
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stimulus-check.asp (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stimulus-check.asp)
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Thanks very much. Are you thinking of doing an article on AMZN?
AMZN, DLR, and AMGN all bounced pretty strongly so far today so I am holding off on buying more for now. GOOGL and CSCO still watching, up today but not a lot.
The site I write most for, I write for the dividend-investing section. It's not impossible that I would ever write about AMZN, but not likely either.
Stock I picked for our most recent buy was TJX (company behind TJ Maxx, Marshalls, etc). Actually writing about em today.
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The site I write most for, I write for the dividend-investing section. It's not impossible that I would ever write about AMZN, but not likely either.
Stock I picked for our most recent buy was TJX (company behind TJ Maxx, Marshalls, etc). Actually writing about em today.
Oh yeah, I am very familiar with your articles on that site. But just because you typically focus on dividend payers doesn't mean you can't write about others. In fact, it could be a good sort of counterpoint that people shouldn't get locked into only one kind of investing if a different type of opportunity is staring them in the face. Just my 2c.
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This morning's news in Connecticut was reported there have been 30,000 jobless claims since Friday.
They have been averaging 2,000 week for a long period of time.
I'm sure it's the same everywhere.
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It'll only grow as people who have been furloughed or hourly workers who are technically on "0-hour assignments" join the unemployment pool. To say nothing of gig workers. All of this goes to Cuban's point earlier in the thread. Anything that happens at a corporate level needs to be to bolster cashflow but with severe restrictions on where that money can go (i.e. no buybacks).
The trouble the airlines face is that stimulus checks to consumers simply won't bolster their industry; there's just no amount of money that's going to result in demand generation right now.
Re: the stimulus, it could be means tested, but most economists cite a lot of risks there, especially given unique circumstances. Basing on last year's tax returns don't hold if you're, say, in sales and commission based. Most economists seem to agree that a broad, sweeping measure makes the most sense to get relief out fast, as the government doesn't have to add the step of checking and verifying income levels.
My stance is that it should be universal, but with individuals who are still in the workforce able to submit that money back for a treasury bond so that the cash is re-deployable to lower income levels in subsequent waves. My wife and I both remain gainfully employed at home, and thus are not the target of this measure. We'd reinvest some of it back into restaurants and the local economy, but some of it would inevitably go to savings and investments, which is the COMPLETE opposite effect you want.
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It'll only grow as people who have been furloughed or hourly workers who are technically on "0-hour assignments" join the unemployment pool. To say nothing of gig workers. All of this goes to Cuban's point earlier in the thread. Anything that happens at a corporate level needs to be to bolster cashflow but with severe restrictions on where that money can go (i.e. no buybacks).
The trouble the airlines face is that stimulus checks to consumers simply won't bolster their industry; there's just no amount of money that's going to result in demand generation right now.
Re: the stimulus, it could be means tested, but most economists cite a lot of risks there, especially given unique circumstances. Basing on last year's tax returns don't hold if you're, say, in sales and commission based. Most economists seem to agree that a broad, sweeping measure makes the most sense to get relief out fast, as the government doesn't have to add the step of checking and verifying income levels.
My stance is that it should be universal, but with individuals who are still in the workforce able to submit that money back for a treasury bond so that the cash is re-deployable to lower income levels in subsequent waves. My wife and I both remain gainfully employed at home, and thus are not the target of this measure. We'd reinvest some of it back into restaurants and the local economy, but some of it would inevitably go to savings and investments, which is the COMPLETE opposite effect you want.
100% agree. Well stated.
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100% agree. Well stated.
+1
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+1
+2
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Oh yeah, I am very familiar with your articles on that site. But just because you typically focus on dividend payers doesn't mean you can't write about others. In fact, it could be a good sort of counterpoint that people shouldn't get locked into only one kind of investing if a different type of opportunity is staring them in the face. Just my 2c.
Agree with you. Although I do need to write about what my bosses want me to write about, they probably wouldn't object to me writing about AMZN. I'd have to be seriously considering it for the portfolio I'm building, however. I appreciate your input.
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Bill Ackman comes on CNBC, preaches INSANE doom and gloom, says the only way the market recovers is a 30 day shutdown, touts his positions while driving prices lower because Pershing Square is in buying mode...then caps it off by saying he took out a bunch of cash from the bank last month. Just a complete douchebag of an interview all things considered.
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I played TVIX alot in the past, then got turned on to Options two years ago, and stopped playing TVIX. On Feb 19th, not even a month ago, TVIX was at $39 a share. At 8:45am today, I texted my brother and said "we should have grabbed shares of TVIX when this all started and was in the 40's, it's at $700 a share now".
I just checked TVIX, it's now up to $1000 a share, up $300 in 5 hours.
Crazy, crazy times man.
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Sure acts like Ners.
I wonder if he thinks the market was overbought?
I'm not Curbina. I did not think the market was overbought. Felt some stocks were absolutely overbought, however. I shifted gears in January, and began to short a few stocks: Match Group, Lululemon, and Shopify. 3 stocks I owned from 2017-2019. They had fabulous run ups. But their RSI's were consistently pushing 80-90, and their PE's/Market Caps were hard to fathom.
I've gotten crushed on some of my biotechs, but have been buying back in over the last week. I'm big on AMRN, GNPX, IGMS, PTI, SAVA - of those, I feel most confident about AMRN. I'm confident AMRN will double in the next 6-12 months, once COVID-19 is past us. It's a steal at $10.25 per share. Bloom Energy is another interesting play (BE).
I suspect COVID-19 will take another 3 months to fully abate. Hard to say how the markets will stomach such a drawn out period of uncertainty. However, this has created some great buying opportunities once again.
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I'm not Curbina. I did not think the market was overbought. Felt some stocks were absolutely overbought, however. I shifted gears in January, and began to short a few stocks: Match Group, Lululemon, and Shopify. 3 stocks I owned from 2017-2019. They had fabulous run ups. But their RSI's were consistently pushing 80-90, and their PE's/Market Caps were hard to fathom.
I've gotten crushed on some of my biotechs, but have been buying back in over the last week. I'm big on AMRN, GNPX, IGMS, PTI, SAVA - of those, I feel most confident about AMRN. I'm confident AMRN will double in the next 6-12 months, once COVID-19 is past us. It's a steal at $10.25 per share. Bloom Energy is another interesting play (BE).
I suspect COVID-19 will take another 3 months to fully abate. Hard to say how the markets will stomach such a drawn out period of uncertainty. However, this has created some great buying opportunities once again.
It'll still be a steal at $8. :-X
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Difficult to know when to jump in with serious bucks.
I know it's not possible to call the bottom, and I won't even try. But I've worked hard to build up some dry powder and I'd rather not pour it in only to see another 35-50% down from here.
I am not a spec investor at all. I buy almost exclusively blue-chip, dividend-growing stocks that everybody has heard of. So I will stick to what I perceive as the highest quality, realizing the prices will bounce around after I buy them.
After there is a clear sign this nightmare is ending, the market likely will shoot up. But then there will be some horrible earnings reports and it will be bouncy. Hard to make any kind of intelligent prediction.
It's all part of the fun!
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Serious investing question .. if the next unemployment number is 10-15-20% .. doesn't the market crater 50% further?
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It'll still be a steal at $8. :-X
And I will absolutely by more at $8 should it drop there. Always nice to dollar cost average down. Big picture, I think AMRN will either be bought out soon for a 3-4x multiple or they go it alone and will be trading in the $50s within 3-4 years max barring any other Black Swan events.
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Difficult to know when to jump in with serious bucks.
I know it's not possible to call the bottom, and I won't even try. But I've worked hard to build up some dry powder and I'd rather not pour it in only to see another 35-50% down from here.
I am not a spec investor at all. I buy almost exclusively blue-chip, dividend-growing stocks that everybody has heard of. So I will stick to what I perceive as the highest quality, realizing the prices will bounce around after I buy them.
After there is a clear sign this nightmare is ending, the market likely will shoot up. But then there will be some horrible earnings reports and it will be bouncy. Hard to make any kind of intelligent prediction.
It's all part of the fun!
Sounds like you have a sound strategy 82. Always good to invest in what you know. One thought regarding dry powder - wish I had more right now - never a good idea to invest all that dry powder at once. One strategy would be to invest 1/12th of dry powder each of the next 12 weeks - buying on down days. As I mentioned, feel it will still be quite volatile the next 3 months..thus the 12 week buying cycle.
You are right in your foresight regarding future earnings. Going to be lots of misses. Think most investors/institutional investors will be quite forgiving. Key driver will be re-employment, and consumer spending - which could actually be quite high if we are in true lock down mode for next 30-60 days.
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I know it's not possible to call the bottom, and I won't even try. But I've worked hard to build up some dry powder and I'd rather not pour it in only to see another 35-50% down from here.
That’s where I am now. I bought small batches of GOOGL and ISRG when they had dipped quite a bit... and then they fell way more.
Maybe I should buy more now, but I’m gonna wait a little while longer. Maybe if GOOGL hits $900.
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Sounds like you have a sound strategy 82. Always good to invest in what you know. One thought regarding dry powder - wish I had more right now - never a good idea to invest all that dry powder at once. One strategy would be to invest 1/12th of dry powder each of the next 12 weeks - buying on down days. As I mentioned, feel it will still be quite volatile the next 3 months..thus the 12 week buying cycle.
You are right in your foresight regarding future earnings. Going to be lots of misses. Think most investors/institutional investors will be quite forgiving. Key driver will be re-employment, and consumer spending - which could actually be quite high if we are in true lock down mode for next 30-60 days.
Thanks. I usually reject the old "it's priced in" argument, but I do think some of the earnings misses and employment figures will be baked in. Most investors have to know that's the way it's gonna be. But the market isn't really rational, so sure I'd expect some downward movement when the real bad news gets announced. Just a guess, though. I don't pretend to know.
Believe me, I will not jump all in with my dry powder. I am protecting it like it's my first-born child!
Serious investing question .. if the next unemployment number is 10-15-20% .. doesn't the market crater 50% further?
See my above answer, FWIW. But anybody who claims to know exactly how Mr. Market will react is lying.
That’s where I am now. I bought small batches of GOOGL and ISRG when they had dipped quite a bit... and then they fell way more.
Maybe I should buy more now, but I’m gonna wait a little while longer. Maybe if GOOGL hits $900.
I have identified a couple dozen companies I'm interested in, and have tried to assess "hero" prices I'd be willing to pay to buy some shares in them. Otherwise known as a watch list.
The problem is, those prices are largely based on projected earnings and sales, and those figures almost surely will be adjusted (probably downward) after each of the next couple of quarters. So it's a little bit like playing "pin the tail on the market" while blindfolded. Not the greatest feeling. I've tried to be super-conservative with my assessments, build in a margin of safety.
FWIW, I'm a GOOGL buyer at $840-ish -- 15 times expected 2021 earnings. It might never get down there, and that would be fine; I don't "need" GOOGL to reach my goals. But that's when it would get really interesting for me. And I retain the right to change that figure based on market conditions at the time.
Good luck to all.
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I've never been all the big on bank stocks, but I was looking at Citi this morning a little bit. They're down +/- 50% in the last couple weeks. While it will definitely be rough for banks in the short-term, it's hard to not see this kind of drop as a great buying opportunity. Any thoughts from those who know the sector a little more than I do?
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I've never been all the big on bank stocks, but I was looking at Citi this morning a little bit. They're down +/- 50% in the last couple weeks. While it will definitely be rough for banks in the short-term, it's hard to not see this kind of drop as a great buying opportunity. Any thoughts from those who know the sector a little more than I do?
What’s your investment strategy/stage in life? There are a lot of stocks that have taken a 50% haircut the last month - so lots of options to choose from.
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What’s your investment strategy/stage in life? There are a lot of stocks that have taken a 50% haircut the last month - so lots of options to choose from.
I'm still 30+ years from retirement, relatively high risk tolerance. I'm heavily invested in equities and equity funds with a smaller amount of fixed income funds.
I did see plenty of other options for stocks that have taken deeper losses than the overall market in recent weeks, but it's a little tricky to figure out who has the best path to getting back to pre-covid prices.
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I'm still 30+ years from retirement, relatively high risk tolerance. I'm heavily invested in equities and equity funds with a smaller amount of fixed income funds.
I did see plenty of other options for stocks that have taken deeper losses than the overall market in recent weeks, but it's a little tricky to figure out who has the best path to getting back to pre-covid prices.
Tough to know before you see all the bailout proposals, how they will affect the consumer, which industries will be targeted, what kind of phased lock-down will be going on locally/globally and for how long, etc.
As a general rule, look for businesses without high fixed cost structures and no large near-term debt maturities that they wouldn't be able to meet with a 50%+ cut to revenue and projected cash on hand at the time
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I'm still 30+ years from retirement, relatively high risk tolerance. I'm heavily invested in equities and equity funds with a smaller amount of fixed income funds.
I did see plenty of other options for stocks that have taken deeper losses than the overall market in recent weeks, but it's a little tricky to figure out who has the best path to getting back to pre-covid prices.
Think Ellenson Family Reunion gives some good advice above. This dip is a great thing for you being 30 years out. If you are a buy and hold guy, ideas I'd present would be: AMRN, ETSY, ULTA, RVLV, SQ, BA, SHOP, CTAS.
Higher volatility biotechs I like (a sector invest 50% of my portfolio): AXSM, FLGT, GNPX, NVTA, SAVA, AQST, IGMS.
Bloom Energy (BE) is also an interesting company with a bright future IMO.
Invest at your own risk above. Just sharing some ideas.
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Think Ellenson Family Reunion gives some good advice above. This dip is a great thing for you being 30 years out. If you are a buy and hold guy, ideas I'd present would be: AMRN, ETSY, ULTA, RVLV, SQ, BA, SHOP, CTAS.
Higher volatility biotechs I like (a sector invest 50% of my portfolio): AXSM, FLGT, GNPX, NVTA, SAVA, AQST, IGMS.
Bloom Energy (BE) is also an interesting company with a bright future IMO.
Invest at your own risk above. Just sharing some ideas.
I invested in BA just over 100 ago... I've regretted it ever since...
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I invested in BA just over 100 ago... I've regretted it ever since...
I liked it at $200 but love it at $100. I actually don’t hold a position in BA but am going to add some when more dry powder arrives Friday.
BA will be fine long term. Don’t feel bad. Everyone has gotten battered the last month.
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Appreciate the advice, Ellenson and Elons. Lots of good stuff to think about.
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Starting to see reports about Senators dumping stock in late January and early February after receiving classified briefings about possible effects of Coronavirus on the country.
So they protected their OWN money while not warning Americans what was coming.
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Starting to see reports about Senators dumping stock in late January and early February after receiving classified briefings about possible effects of Coronavirus on the country.
So they protected their OWN money while not warning Americans what was coming.
Yep. Trades on 1/27 after receiving a briefing on 1/24.
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Yep. Trades on 1/27 after receiving a briefing on 1/24.
Always wondered why people devoted their lives to “public service”.
Cough, ahemmm hack hack
I’m sure this goes on more often than is reported, but wtf??
I don’t care who or what party. There should be severe penalties
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Bill Ackman comes on CNBC, preaches INSANE doom and gloom, says the only way the market recovers is a 30 day shutdown, touts his positions while driving prices lower because Pershing Square is in buying mode...then caps it off by saying he took out a bunch of cash from the bank last month. Just a complete douchebag of an interview all things considered.
Sorry, I don’t consider Bill Ackman to be a douchebag.
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Always wondered why people devoted their lives to “public service”.
Cough, ahemmm hack hack
I’m sure this goes on more often than is reported, but wtf??
I don’t care who or what party. There should be severe penalties
On that we can agree.
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Sorry, I don’t consider Bill Ackman to be a douchebag.
Lol of course you don’t. You’re about the only person I’ve read with that opinion. But fits everything else you’ve provided in this thread.
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Always wondered why people devoted their lives to “public service”.
Cough, ahemmm hack hack
I’m sure this goes on more often than is reported, but wtf??
I don’t care who or what party. There should be severe penalties
Agree wholeheartedly. And I believe the Stock Act (2012) makes insider trading (use of material nonpublic information for financial gain) by members of Congress subject to the penalties of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. If an individual is found guilty of insider trading, the maximum penalty is 20 years in prison and $5,000,000.
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Lol of course you don’t. You’re about the only person I’ve read with that opinion. But fits everything else you’ve provided in this thread.
Who else is calling Bill Ackman a douchebag? Please point them out.
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Goldman predicting 2.25MM jobless claims this week. 10x increase WOW.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1240841141739827201 (https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1240841141739827201)
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Agree wholeheartedly. And I believe the Stock Act (2012) makes insider trading (use of material nonpublic information for financial gain) by members of Congress subject to the penalties of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. If an individual is found guilty of insider trading, the maximum penalty is 20 years in prison and $5,000,000.
DiFi, RonJon, georgia senator among those implicated.
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Futures turned around early this morning, pointing to opening gain.
Dow +592.00 S&P +71.00 NASDAQ +284.50
Today is Quadruple Witching Watch, expect increase in volatility.
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Agree wholeheartedly. And I believe the Stock Act (2012) makes insider trading (use of material nonpublic information for financial gain) by members of Congress subject to the penalties of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. If an individual is found guilty of insider trading, the maximum penalty is 20 years in prison and $5,000,000.
HA, but what is the minimum?
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I liked it at $200 but love it at $100. I actually don’t hold a position in BA but am going to add some when more dry powder arrives Friday.
BA will be fine long term. Don’t feel bad. Everyone has gotten battered the last month.
I have mentioned a few times in this thread that I am not a fan of BA. It may be tempting at $100, but a production stop and potential dividend cut will inflict more damage. To me, they seem more like GE than a company that is going to make a V-shaped recovery. Yes, eventually they will be alright, but personally I would wait to invest until they actually show signs of business recovery.
Just my opinion, but bottom fishing on this one feels like you might stay at the bottom for a long time. I'd rather focus in stocks that have been pummeled senseless but still have strong business models.
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Futures turned around early this morning, pointing to opening gain.
Dow +592.00 S&P +71.00 NASDAQ +284.50
Today is Quadruple Witching Watch, expect increase in volatility.
Same pattern as last week - let's hope for good news over the weekend
Anyone looking at BP? $17/share looks tempting...
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I have mentioned a few times in this thread that I am not a fan of BA. It may be tempting at $100, but a production stop and potential dividend cut will inflict more damage. To me, they seem more like GE than a company that is going to make a V-shaped recovery. Yes, eventually they will be alright, but personally I would wait to invest until they actually show signs of business recovery.
Just my opinion, but bottom fishing on this one feels like you might stay at the bottom for a long time. I'd rather focus in stocks that have been pummeled senseless but still have strong business models.
+1
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Starting to see reports about Senators dumping stock in late January and early February after receiving classified briefings about possible effects of Coronavirus on the country.
So they protected their OWN money while not warning Americans what was coming.
With the Senators running wild for profits after that briefing just imagine what the executive branch has been doing for the last 38 months.
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With the Senators running wild for profits after that briefing just imagine what the executive branch has been doing for the last 38 months.
If you look at these trades it really is not a big deal. Some of these senators husbands / wives are worth 100's of Millions of Dollars. The Fact they sold 1 or 2 million worth of stock is so insignificant. I haven't dug any deeper but i would suspect they have trades similar to this throughout the year. Now am i naive to think they don't use insider trading? Nope. But I'm sure they still show current losses in their portfolio.
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If you look at these trades it really is not a big deal. Some of these senators husbands / wives are worth 100's of Millions of Dollars. The Fact they sold 1 or 2 million worth of stock is so insignificant. I haven't dug any deeper but i would suspect they have trades similar to this throughout the year. Now am i naive to think they don't use insider trading? Nope. But I'm sure they still show current losses in their portfolio.
Lol. Sure.
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With the Senators running wild for profits after that briefing just imagine what the executive branch has been doing for the last 38 months.
Imagine all the undetected kickbacks that could easily be hidden. And that could be anyone from congress. Send a message to your donors as soon as you're out of the meeting. They buy or sell and look like geniuses.
Oh wait, that sort of thing has been going on for decades. Proving it is another story.
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Same pattern as last week - let's hope for good news over the weekend
Anyone looking at BP? $17/share looks tempting...
If looking at BP, look at OXY. Overpaid for Anadarko but stock has taken a major hit.
I am watching Casinos right now. Macau is back up and running with a few US Casino seeing 60%-80% of their revenue generated by the Chinese. LVS - 67% Wynn - 74%. Most likely a riskier play but once the lights turn back on in Las Vegas, people will return.
Gaming 52 Wk High 52 Wk Low 1-Jan 2-Mar 18-Mar 20-Mar
Wynn 153.41 47.77 143.6 102.12 48.43 50.71
MGM 34.64 8.81 33.66 25.05 8.85 8.9
PlayAGS 26.12 1.72 12.12 9.32 1.75 1.48
LVS 74.29 33.3 70.8 57.78 35.96 44.29
Safer plays I like: AMD, BILL, COLD
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If you look at these trades it really is not a big deal. Some of these senators husbands / wives are worth 100's of Millions of Dollars. The Fact they sold 1 or 2 million worth of stock is so insignificant. I haven't dug any deeper but i would suspect they have trades similar to this throughout the year. Now am i naive to think they don't use insider trading? Nope. But I'm sure they still show current losses in their portfolio.
Illegally trading on inside information is perfectly fine if it is a relatively small part of your portfolio? Got it.
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Illegally trading on inside information is perfectly fine if it is a relatively small part of your portfolio? Got it.
interesting how you come to that conclusion from my post. Not sure where i say it is "perfectly fine". I will let the experts and legal hawks tell me if it is legal or illegal. I wont let Fox News, CBS, or CNN tell me.
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Imagine all the undetected kickbacks that could easily be hidden. And that could be anyone from congress. Send a message to your donors as soon as you're out of the meeting. They buy or sell and look like geniuses.
Oh wait, that sort of thing has been going on for decades. Proving it is another story.
I didn't post about Congress. I posted about the executive branch.
Name all of the previous executive branches in our history where the senior level positions didn't divest their financial holdings upon entering their administrations.
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interesting how you come to that conclusion from my post. Not sure where i say it is "perfectly fine". I will let the experts and legal hawks tell me if it is legal or illegal. I wont let Fox News, CBS, or CNN tell me.
How do you live in this world and not know that insider trading is illegal?
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I didn't post about Congress. I posted about the executive branch.
Name all of the previous executive branches in our history where the senior level positions didn't divest their financial holdings upon entering their administrations.
Oh I know. I'm aware, but are we going to pretend like this practice isn't wide spread across government? Knowledge is power.
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interesting how you come to that conclusion from my post. Not sure where i say it is "perfectly fine". I will let the experts and legal hawks tell me if it is legal or illegal. I wont let Fox News, CBS, or CNN tell me.
No, you said, "If you look at these trades it really is not a big deal." So, yeah.
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If you look at these trades it really is not a big deal. Some of these senators husbands / wives are worth 100's of Millions of Dollars. The Fact they sold 1 or 2 million worth of stock is so insignificant. I haven't dug any deeper but i would suspect they have trades similar to this throughout the year. Now am i naive to think they don't use insider trading? Nope. But I'm sure they still show current losses in their portfolio.
Who's worth 100's of millions?
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If you look at these trades it really is not a big deal. Some of these senators husbands / wives are worth 100's of Millions of Dollars. The Fact they sold 1 or 2 million worth of stock is so insignificant. I haven't dug any deeper but i would suspect they have trades similar to this throughout the year. Now am i naive to think they don't use insider trading? Nope. But I'm sure they still show current losses in their portfolio.
Per Roll Call, Burr's net worth is about $1.7 million.
The amount of stock he sold is incredibly significant. And he almost certainly doesn't routinely make stock transactions of this amount
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Who's worth 100's of millions?
Looks like Richard Burr sold most of his net worth if his est net worth is $1-$2 Mil. https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness
Loeffler - Estimated combined net worth $500 (most the net worth comes from Jeffrey Sprecher, husband & Chr NYSE)
DiFi - various ranges but est around $90 million
100's of millions would be incorrect. 10's of millions may be more appropriate.
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I invested in BA just over 100 ago... I've regretted it ever since...
BA will be fine, don’t worry. I bought at $153. Just ride the coaster, don’t jump off
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Looks like Richard Burr sold most of his net worth if his est net worth is $1-$2 Mil. https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness
Loeffler - Estimated combined net worth $500 (most the net worth comes from Jeffrey Sprecher, husband & Chr NYSE)
DiFi - various ranges but est around $90 million
100's of millions would be incorrect. 10's of millions may be more appropriate.
Also inaccurately being reported Ron Johnson had a "stock dump" when it is being reported he sold his portion of ownership in a family company Pacur.
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BA will be fine, don’t worry. I bought at $153. Just ride the coaster, don’t jump off
Thanks, it's was my first buy over 100 that wasn't an ETF and I thought I was getting a deal at 210. So it's been really stressful.
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CNBC had tennis coach, and apparently amateur trader, Brad Gilbert on to preach doom and a 50% drop in indexes. What a clownshow from the producers there.
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interesting how you come to that conclusion from my post. Not sure where i say it is "perfectly fine". I will let the experts and legal hawks tell me if it is legal or illegal. I wont let Fox News, CBS, or CNN tell me.
Even Tucker Carlson disagrees with you that it wasn't a big deal:
“Maybe there’s an honest explanation for what he did; if there is, he should share it with the rest of us immediately,” Carlson said in a Thursday night segment on Fox News. “Otherwise, he must resign from the Senate and face prosecution for insider trading.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/488576-tucker-carlson-calls-on-burr-to-resign-amid-reports-of-stock-selloff-due-to?fbclid=IwAR0CAjs4Ch5NkFpAbciKGeRrBKMDWkV6mDFO7HSZJsyCF-m5azT9I9adBk8#.XnSvdZT0kIY.facebook
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Hiding the unemployment numbers is NOT going to help calm the markets:
"The Trump administration’s Labor Department sent an email to state officials this week asking them to report new unemployment claims only in “generalities” to avoid spooking financial markets, The New York Times reported.
The email on Wednesday asked state labor authorities to only “provide information using generalities to describe claims levels (very high, large increase)” until the Labor Department releases the total number of national claims next Thursday.
“States should not provide numeric values to the public,” Gay Gilbert, the administrator of the department’s Office of Employment Insurance, wrote in the email shared with the Times. The message noted that the figures are closely tracked by financial markets judging the strength of the economy.
Unemployment claims have been skyrocketing as thousands are laid off from jobs amid the spread of coronavirus. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin reportedly warned senators that unemployment during the pandemic could hit 20% without a financial rescue package."
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/labor-department-trump-fudges-unemployment-claims_n_5e745dc5c5b6eab7794577ee
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Even Tucker Carlson disagrees with you that it wasn't a big deal:
“Maybe there’s an honest explanation for what he did; if there is, he should share it with the rest of us immediately,” Carlson said in a Thursday night segment on Fox News. “Otherwise, he must resign from the Senate and face prosecution for insider trading.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/488576-tucker-carlson-calls-on-burr-to-resign-amid-reports-of-stock-selloff-due-to?fbclid=IwAR0CAjs4Ch5NkFpAbciKGeRrBKMDWkV6mDFO7HSZJsyCF-m5azT9I9adBk8#.XnSvdZT0kIY.facebook
Hell, even his fellow NC Repub senator, dopey Thom Tillis, says Burr has some splainin' to do.
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Goldman Sachs says GDP could drop 24% next quarter. I believe the record drop is around 10%.
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Goldman Sachs says GDP could drop 24% next quarter. I believe the record drop is around 10%.
This kind of thing is why I'm treading very carefully with the dry powder I spent a year building. I don't mind holding cash as an asset.
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This kind of thing is why I'm treading very carefully with the dry powder I spent a year building. I don't mind holding cash as an asset.
Ditto. I had a small amount of cash ready to invest when the market just started to tank with COVID, and invested about half of it after the markets dipped. But then when it kept going further...and further...and further down, I decided to hold on to the other half for the time being.
Given that 60 is just around the corner for me, most of my money is in conservative "set it and forget it" investments that I don't worry about. So fortunately, whatever happens with that small 2% is only minimally relevant. Still, I'm not quite crazy enough to just toss it into a fire pit...
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Goldman Sachs says GDP could drop 24% next quarter. I believe the record drop is around 10%.
JPM (I believe this is who had it) has similar numbers for Q2 -24 but has Q3 +11 & Q4 +10. The Q3 Q4 gains would be records in the same right. I've moved from 100% bonds into 99% Cash to try and catch the wave up. My bond move in February from 95% equity saved me about 30%. Right now I think it's time to shelter in place for investments as fundamentals are all over the place and crazy AF.
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JPM (I believe this is who had it) has similar numbers for Q2 -24 but has Q3 +11 & Q4 +10. The Q3 Q4 gains would be records in the same right. I've moved from 100% bonds into 99% Cash to try and catch the wave up. My bond move in February from 95% equity saved me about 30%. Right now I think it's time to shelter in place for investments as fundamentals are all over the place and crazy AF.
Congrats on your move to bonds, that was huge.
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Thanks, it's was my first buy over 100 that wasn't an ETF and I thought I was getting a deal at 210. So it's been really stressful.
While most of the market tanks today, BA is up $14. Optimism.
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This kind of thing is why I'm treading very carefully with the dry powder I spent a year building. I don't mind holding cash as an asset.
Yeah, we are selling our condo (almost 30% equity after living in it for 5 years) and buying a house (putting 10% down, no PMI). We are going to end up with about an extra $30,000 in cash after the transaction, which I was planning to use to fix a couple things, put a fence up, and furnish the new place. I already have about 6 months emergency fund in cash, not counting the house proceeds.
However, I think I might just keep the extra cash for a bit until all this passes. Furnishing can wait.
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While most of the market tanks today, BA is up $14. Optimism.
Optimism of sweet, sweet bailout money.
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Yeah, we are selling our condo (almost 30% equity after living in it for 5 years) and buying a house (putting 10% down, no PMI). We are going to end up with about an extra $30,000 in cash after the transaction, which I was planning to use to fix a couple things, put a fence up, and furnish the new place. I already have about 6 months emergency fund in cash, not counting the house proceeds.
However, I think I might just keep the extra cash for a bit until all this passes. Furnishing can wait.
I like your cash plans. One of the problems our economy has is that so few people have access to cash when they need it.
Quick question: How can you avoid PMI if you're only putting 10% down?
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Markets need the Senate to strike a deal. Bad look right now.
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Markets need the Senate to strike a deal. Bad look right now.
This is probably too political of a comment...
But it would help if they'd all quit acting like unnatural carnal knowledgeing children
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This is probably too political of a comment...
But it would help if they'd all quit acting like unnatural carnal knowledgeing children
Or stop trying to give a movie mogul --err eh --Secretary a $500bil no strings attached slush fund.
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I like your cash plans. One of the problems our economy has is that so few people have access to cash when they need it.
Quick question: How can you avoid PMI if you're only putting 10% down?
I took a slightly higher interest rate. Went from 3.185 to 3.4
Payment is slightly less than if I had PMI (albeit for the life of the loan, unlike PMI), and the interest is obviously tax deductible
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I took a slightly higher interest rate. Went from 3.185 to 3.4
Payment is slightly less than if I had PMI (albeit for the life of the loan, unlike PMI), and the interest is obviously tax deductible
Thanks for the info. My son and his wife are in the early stages of looking for their first house and this is good to know.
I hope things work out great for you.
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Or stop trying to give a movie mogul --err eh --Secretary a $500bil no strings attached slush fund.
Read the fine print. That’s not the case at all. And it’s far less egregious than the insane pork Pelosi put in.
Bail out the USPS?
$250MM to the IRS?
$75MM to the JFK Performing Arts Center?
$100MM to NASA
$300MM to PBS?
Not to mention crap about making airlines carbon neutral and intense focus on election funding and preparations.
There is making sure that corporate funding and bailouts are not egregious misuses of funds, and then there is throwing a fit while using an emergency to railroad home your pet projects. And for as good as Schumer is at cozying up to Wall Street, he’s equally as terrible being the mouthpiece for this
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Read the fine print. That’s not the case at all. And it’s far less egregious than the insane pork Pelosi put in.
Bail out the USPS?
$250MM to the IRS?
$75MM to the JFK Performing Arts Center?
$100MM to NASA
$300MM to PBS?
Not to mention crap about making airlines carbon neutral and intense focus on election funding and preparations.
There is making sure that corporate funding and bailouts are not egregious misuses of funds, and then there is throwing a fit while using an emergency to railroad home your pet projects. And for as good as Schumer is at cozying up to Wall Street, he’s equally as terrible being the mouthpiece for this
You didn't start this.
And I don't agree with these additions/add-ons by this party.
I also don't agree with things like abstinence-only education by the other party.
I don't agree with any of it. Address the EMERGENCY at hand.
Children.
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Read the fine print. That’s not the case at all. And it’s far less egregious than the insane pork Pelosi put in.
Bail out the USPS?
$250MM to the IRS?
$75MM to the JFK Performing Arts Center?
$100MM to NASA
$300MM to PBS?
Not to mention crap about making airlines carbon neutral and intense focus on election funding and preparations.
There is making sure that corporate funding and bailouts are not egregious misuses of funds, and then there is throwing a fit while using an emergency to railroad home your pet projects. And for as good as Schumer is at cozying up to Wall Street, he’s equally as terrible being the mouthpiece for this
What a world we live in when funding the usps, nasal, pbs, and the irs is considered "pork".
Sure let's fix the problem at hand before we worry about the other stuff, but seriously????
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Sure let's fix the problem at hand before we worry about the other stuff, but seriously????
No that’s the whole point. It’s stuff wholly unrelated to and unnecessary to the the bill and situation at hand. It’s standing in front of a burning house and withholding water until the family switches to electric cars, vegetarian diets, and a more robust annual charitable donation allotment. All are valid topics to discuss and deserve consideration, but not to the impediment of the situation at hand. Maybe pork wasn’t the right word, I should have said sweeteners
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No that’s the whole point. It’s stuff wholly unrelated to and unnecessary to the the bill and situation at hand. It’s standing in front of a burning house and withholding water until the family switches to electric cars, vegetarian diets, and a more robust annual charitable donation allotment. All are valid topics to discuss and deserve consideration, but not to the impediment of the situation at hand. Maybe pork wasn’t the right word, I should have said sweeteners
For sure. Let's just pass this crap one thing at a time and not cram everything into one big turd sandwich that becomes impossible for anyone to chew.
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So what stocks are a good buy right now?
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For sure. Let's just pass this crap one thing at a time and not cram everything into one big turd sandwich that becomes impossible for anyone to chew.
Ordinarily, you'd be right Hards. To do as Pelosi and Schumer are doing is normal politics in a normal time. But "this is the kind of normal politics you would hope would not occur in an abnormal time like this."
Pass the bill as it relates to coronavirus relief. Then go back and start another bill and add whatever the F they want to add and see if it flies. But Wags's analogy to a burning house is spot on.
Oh, and IBTL.
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So what stocks are a good buy right now?
Lots would appear to be.
However, one needs reasonable, fairly reliable forward projections to do any real valuation analysis, and many - if not most - companies will have to substantially revise their projections downward for the next quarter or three.
Because of that, it's more difficult than ever to evaluate stocks. I try to work in margins of safety -- say, put my buy zone in the 13 forward P/E range for a company that I normally wouldn't buy until it had a 15 forward P/E. Just one example.
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No that’s the whole point. It’s stuff wholly unrelated to and unnecessary to the the bill and situation at hand. It’s standing in front of a burning house and withholding water until the family switches to electric cars, vegetarian diets, and a more robust annual charitable donation allotment. All are valid topics to discuss and deserve consideration, but not to the impediment of the situation at hand. Maybe pork wasn’t the right word, I should have said sweeteners
It's hard to get around the election year piece of this whole response. Everyone in Washington needs to have their soundbites they can share with voters to show how dedicated they are to the right causes. Right now, we're seeing a ton of this, and it's making a bad situation worse.
Unfortunately, that's the current state of US politics. It's all about fundraising and advertising. Sadly, I think a lot of it works...
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Ordinarily, you'd be right Hards. To do as Pelosi and Schumer are doing is normal politics in a normal time. But "this is the kind of normal politics you would hope would not occur in an abnormal time like this."
Pass the bill as it relates to coronavirus relief. Then go back and start another bill and add whatever the F they want to add and see if it flies. But Wags's analogy to a burning house is spot on.
Oh, and IBTL.
So the Speaker of the House and the Senate minority leader are engaged in "normal politics" but the House minority leader and the Senate majority leader are not engaged in "normal politics" in your mind?
Also, contrary to the simplicity provided by some in this thread, the Congress passing legislation doesn't entirely clear up the market. We're entering an era where the federal political leadership will claim all is back to normal whereas the gubernatorial leadership will keep with public health crisis management that will continue to restrict economic activity.
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Ordinarily, you'd be right Hards. To do as Pelosi and Schumer are doing is normal politics in a normal time. But "this is the kind of normal politics you would hope would not occur in an abnormal time like this."
Pass the bill as it relates to coronavirus relief. Then go back and start another bill and add whatever the F they want to add and see if it flies. But Wags's analogy to a burning house is spot on.
Oh, and IBTL.
No, at this point in time, I'm still right. Pass the parts of the bill one at a time, and get things moving. Keep the pet projects from both sides out. You can blame Pelosi and Shumer, but that only shows me your colors, and that you are not trying to argue in good faith.
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Ordinarily, you'd be right Hards. To do as Pelosi and Schumer are doing is normal politics in a normal time. But "this is the kind of normal politics you would hope would not occur in an abnormal time like this."
Pass the bill as it relates to coronavirus relief. Then go back and start another bill and add whatever the F they want to add and see if it flies. But Wags's analogy to a burning house is spot on.
Oh, and IBTL.
It's all just posturing.
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Thanks for the info. My son and his wife are in the early stages of looking for their first house and this is good to know.
I hope things work out great for you.
Thanks for the kind words. I have a lender I'd recommend if they are in Illinois.
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Regrettably (and predictably), both sides are playing politics. The bill should not contain anything that isn't directly related to directly helping PEOPLE through the immediate crisis.
Any provision to help PBS or NASA (like the Democrats want) should be taken out and dealt with later. And likewise, any provision that provides help to corporations or gives broad discretion to Mnuchin (like the Republicans want) should also be taken out and dealt with later. Things on both sides of the aisle have some merit and are at least worth discussing, but are NOT as urgent as getting help to individual PEOPLE.
Both sides look really bad, and meanwhile, the people suffer.
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Regrettably (and predictably), both sides are playing politics. The bill should not contain anything that isn't directly related to directly helping PEOPLE through the immediate crisis.
Any provision to help PBS or NASA (like the Democrats want) should be taken out and dealt with later. And likewise, any provision that provides help to corporations or gives broad discretion to Mnuchin (like the Republicans want) should also be taken out and dealt with later. Things on both sides of the aisle have some merit and are at least worth discussing, but are NOT as urgent as getting help to individual PEOPLE.
Both sides look really bad, and meanwhile, the people suffer.
+1
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No, at this point in time, I'm still right. Pass the parts of the bill one at a time, and get things moving. Keep the pet projects from both sides out. You can blame Pelosi and Shumer, but that only shows me your colors, and that you are not trying to argue in good faith.
Then I misunderstood your point because I agree with you. Keep the pet projects from both sides out.
The point is to keep this bill related to coronavirus. With regard to issues in the bill that the right has included that have nothing to do stimulating the economy as it relates to Covid-19, they should be removed as well. So rather than the left trying to include a bunch of extraneous issues into this bill, strip out the issues in the current bill that are unrelated and only add or improve on as it relates to problems caused by Covid-19. Save the union funding and obamaphones for another bill. And don't give Mnuchin carte blanche either.
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Then I misunderstood your point because I agree with you. Keep the pet projects from both sides out.
The point is to keep this bill related to coronavirus. With regard to issues in the bill that the right has included that have nothing to do stimulating the economy as it relates to Covid-19, they should be removed as well. So rather than the left trying to include a bunch of extraneous issues into this bill, strip out the issues in the current bill that are unrelated and only add or improve on as it relates to problems caused by Covid-19. Save the union funding and obamaphones for another bill. And don't give Mnuchin carte blanche either.
Dog whistles probably aren't necessary.
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Thanks for the kind words. I have a lender I'd recommend if they are in Illinois.
My daughter is a mortgage broker in Seattle and it's a large company. I think she has already set them up with somebody in Chicago. They all probably knew all the stuff you talked about ... but I didn't!
Thanks for the offer, and keep us posted on how everything goes.
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Regrettably (and predictably), both sides are playing politics. The bill should not contain anything that isn't directly related to directly helping PEOPLE through the immediate crisis.
Any provision to help PBS or NASA (like the Democrats want) should be taken out and dealt with later. And likewise, any provision that provides help to corporations or gives broad discretion to Mnuchin (like the Republicans want) should also be taken out and dealt with later. Things on both sides of the aisle have some merit and are at least worth discussing, but are NOT as urgent as getting help to individual PEOPLE.
Both sides look really bad, and meanwhile, the people suffer.
Well said, Goooo.
You save me a lot of typing with your comments.
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So...no talk of the Fed buying (bond) ETFs? Maybe I missed the discussion.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-is-going-to-buy-etfs-what-does-it-mean-2020-03-23
To me - clearly the reason the market is rocketing today. But once people realize that 1.3 billion people in India being locked down for 21 days isn't good for anybody's economy, it'll drop big time again.
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So...no talk of the Fed buying (bond) ETFs? Maybe I missed the discussion.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-is-going-to-buy-etfs-what-does-it-mean-2020-03-23
To me - clearly the reason the market is rocketing today. But once people realize that 1.3 billion people in India being locked down for 21 days isn't good for anybody's economy, it'll drop big time again.
Band-aids on gushing wounds.
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https://twitter.com/mcuban/status/1242441662208622594?s=19
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This is probably too political of a comment...
But it would help if they'd all quit acting like unnatural carnal knowledgeing children
Both sides. Damn embarrassing. What does funding for the JFK center or solar panels have to do with this emergency? People should be leery of how the money is spent and safeguards, but also badly played to ram other options into this. Bad look all around.
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So...no talk of the Fed buying (bond) ETFs? Maybe I missed the discussion.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-is-going-to-buy-etfs-what-does-it-mean-2020-03-23
To me - clearly the reason the market is rocketing today. But once people realize that 1.3 billion people in India being locked down for 21 days isn't good for anybody's economy, it'll drop big time again.
That was yesterday's big news, rocky, and the market sold off, seemingly because investors felt it smacked of desperation and because they didn't like the Fed firing all of its bullets with the pandemic still threatening to get worse.
The market is moving up today on optimism that politicians will be able to pass $2T+ in stimulus and on Individual-1 saying he wants to open 'Merica up for business again regardless of what infectious disease experts say.
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Both sides. Damn embarrassing. What does funding for the JFK center or solar panels have to do with this emergency? People should be leery of how the money is spent and safeguards, but also badly played to ram other options into this. Bad look all around.
I can't help but notice that you forgot to mention the $500 billion slush fund along side the solar panels and JFK center funding.
How convenient. And right after you said both sides. I am shocked. Really. To my core.
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Both sides. Damn embarrassing. What does funding for the JFK center or solar panels have to do with this emergency? People should be leery of how the money is spent and safeguards, but also badly played to ram other options into this. Bad look all around.
Sure have missed you chicos
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I can't help but notice that you forgot to mention the $500 billion slush fund along side the solar panels and JFK center funding.
How convenient. And right after you said both sides. I am shocked. Really. To my core.
I did.
People should be leery of how the money is spent and safeguards
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Galway, BA up 33% in two days. Keep it rolling hopefully.
I doubled down on OXY today.
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Galway, BA up 33% in two days. Keep it rolling hopefully.
I doubled down on OXY today.
Saw that, I'm scared to get my hopes up
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Saw that, I'm scared to get my hopes up
BA is going to be fine. Government won't let them fail, and they were just hammered with bad news (much of which was self-inflicted) the past year. $100 was a steal. $200 was still a good entry point long term.
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I saw a good tweet talking about the bailout money that Boeing and the airlines are getting.
"They have iPhones and TVs. Why should they get a handout from taxpayers?"
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Maybe I've been reading the wrong (read: pessimistic) news sources, tweets, articles etc. but I don't trust the nearly 20% bounce from earlier this week.
Stimulus/bailout package looks premature -- similar to the completely useless Fed rate cut.
- Domestic COVID cases aren't relenting; NYC is shut down & anyone who can get out already has, and there's no national containment strategy.
- Ca$h handouts drive short-term demand of essential goods & services but won't be enough for people to survive a prolonged shelter in place order, which would appear to be necessary to stop crazy infection rates in the absence of a vaccine.
- One specific sector, but I have no idea who's buying airline equities with any confidence whatsoever. They rose to Feb 2020 peaks based on 90%+ load factors; extensive international flying, high corp demand, etc. The new normal looks like deeply limited domestic demand, unoccupied middle seats, WebEx, canceled events and curtailed international flights. I get the bailout - but DL, UA, AA are burning $50MM cash per day...
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Maybe I've been reading the wrong (read: pessimistic) news sources, tweets, articles etc. but I don't trust the nearly 20% bounce from earlier this week.
Stimulus/bailout package looks premature -- similar to the completely useless Fed rate cut.
- Domestic COVID cases aren't relenting; NYC is shut down & anyone who can get out already has, and there's no national containment strategy.
- Ca$h handouts drive short-term demand of essential goods & services but won't be enough for people to survive a prolonged shelter in place order, which would appear to be necessary to stop crazy infection rates in the absence of a vaccine.
- One specific sector, but I have no idea who's buying airline equities with any confidence whatsoever. They rose to Feb 2020 peaks based on 90%+ load factors; extensive international flying, high corp demand, etc. The new normal looks like deeply limited domestic demand, unoccupied middle seats, WebEx, canceled events and curtailed international flights. I get the bailout - but DL, UA, AA are burning $50MM cash per day...
Because the bounce today is sucker money. We are nowhere near the bottom of this.
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Because the bounce today is sucker money. We are nowhere near the bottom of this.
It’s not a sucker bounce. Markets, even bear markets, don’t fall all at once. People thinking we would plummet right to 2100 or 1600 on the SPX are Chicken Little idiots. The market gained some stability once measures are being taken to both assist the economy as well as fight the virus. If you’re talking a set it and forget it buy level, then no, we probably see lower in the future. But this isn’t some dead cat that’s going to be completely erased next week. I also would be fairly surprised to see BA back under $100 as well as other lows in certain names probably being in, regardless of index levels. Lot of stuff that got thrown out like a baby with the bath water despite limited risk or exposure to this situation
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Took some profits today from GE and USFD, hogs get slaughtered as it were. I think they both go back down over the next month at which time I will be a buyer. Airlines scare me, always have, not sure I want to be an owner of that business.
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I saw a good tweet talking about the bailout money that Boeing and the airlines are getting.
"They have iPhones and TVs. Why should they get a handout from taxpayers?"
Bailout = Necessary evil. BA employs 150k people, which helps those people have iPhones and TVs.
The “slush fund” is necessary. No share buybacks allowed. We’ve never seen an economic crisis like this in our history. Companies fail, lots of people out of work. Then what? Tax revenue also gets crushed. Deficits further abound.
Imagine being a small business owner now and you have ZERO revenue coming in, 50 employees, and you are shut down indefinitely. Brutal situation.
I’ve been both a small business owner and a corporate employee. Being an employee is cush AF, as compared to running a small business.
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Well, we could react like Canada, for starters. That'd be a little different approach. Certainly less corporate socialism.
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Bailout = Necessary evil. BA employs 150k people, which helps those people have iPhones and TVs.
The “slush fund” is necessary. No share buybacks allowed. We’ve never seen an economic crisis like this in our history. Companies fail, lots of people out of work. Then what? Tax revenue also gets crushed. Deficits further abound.
Imagine being a small business owner now and you have ZERO revenue coming in, 50 employees, and you are shut down indefinitely. Brutal situation.
I’ve been both a small business owner and a corporate employee. Being an employee is cush AF, as compared to running a small business.
I actually mostly agree with you. The bailouts, largely, were necessary.
The tweet, of course, was referring to those who say that because somebody has an iPhone, it means he or she shouldn't need any government/taxpayer assistance.
A faction of our country that is almost always against government/taxpayer assistance somehow always finds room to open their hearts when those that need assisting are multibillion-dollar corporations -- corporations that spent years buying back their own stock and paying executives tens of millions of dollars.
It's not a black and white issue. As always, there are shades of gray, nuance. But it's probably asking too much for folks to remember that the next time they want to rip somebody who makes $20K per year for having the temerity to own an iPhone.
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This guy is usually a market doom-and-gloomer who has been hinting about an impending Next Big Recession since at least 2013, so know that going in.
But he makes some interesting points about this current market upswing and what he thinks might follow.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334374-you-one-week-to-decide?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget
His big point is about what investors should do next:
You have one week to decide. Maybe you read all of these above risks and shrug your bullish shoulders. Perhaps you subscribe to some of the risks above, but dismiss others. Maybe you are deeply concerns about the downside risk prospects for capital markets. If you are undecided, or if you have been biding your time waiting for the bounce, now is the time to be thinking about your exposure to risk assets going forward. For once we get toward the end of next week, things for financial markets are about to get REAL real.
Up to this point, we have been moving through what is a traditionally quiet period of the quarter, particularly during the second half of March. The flow of economic and market data is minimal, and much of it is getting dismissed now anyway as it reflects conditions that were in place prior to the onset of COVID-19 in this country. And this quiet period will continue into next week.
This will all change come next Friday, April 3 when the monthly job report for March is released. From this point on, investors will increasingly be forced to take a look at a steady data showing how much damage the U.S. economy has sustained thus far.
Moreover, 2020 Q1 earnings season will quickly get underway starting the week of April 6 and picking up quickly through the remainder of the month and into May. This will not only include companies reporting on how they fared with the operating disruption at the very end of the first quarter, but they will also be issuing guidance (whatever this will be worth) on what they expect from their businesses in Q2 and beyond. All of this information is almost certainly going to be deeply troubling. The only question is exactly how troubling. But if the fact that current earnings forecasts remain as high as they are suggests a lot of space exists for investors to be negatively shocked while seeing their forward P/E ratios explode through the roof. The degree of solvency risk facing many companies will come increasingly into view during this time period as well.
So while hopes may be high that we may have bottomed on March 23, the likelihood instead is that we may have hit our first bottom in a series of successive bottoms that may extend out for some time into the future.
I admit that I too am concerned, and I think justifiably, about what's gonna happen when earnings season starts in just a couple weeks. It's gonna be one bad report after another, and some pretty horrific forward guidance. Will Mr. Market react by saying, "Yeah, but everybody knew that was coming; it's about to get better soon"? Or will he freak out and sell off again, perhaps even deeper than the crash we just endured?
Saying, "You have one week to decide" might be a little overly dramatic ... or not. I know I'll be doing some thinking, even though I hate market-timing.
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Imagine being a small business owner now and you have ZERO revenue coming in, 50 employees, and you are shut down indefinitely. Brutal situation.
I’ve been both a small business owner and a corporate employee. Being an employee is cush AF, as compared to running a small business.
Yep. That’s where I am right now. As a key stakeholder in a 25 person company. We have a global business, but a key point and process to our deliverable is produced in Long Island City, so not only are orders not coming in domestically, we have to put any global orders on hold.
I thought the same thing, I worked for PepsiCo before I made the move to where I am now. If I was still there, it would be the most relaxed laidback WFH situation for a month with zero worries (I worked on a pretty inelastic product segment and our group went through 3 lay-off periods during my tenure and didn’t lose a single employee).
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Yep. That’s where I am right now. As a key stakeholder in a 25 person company. We have a global business, but a key point and process to our deliverable is produced in Long Island City, so not only are orders not coming in domestically, we have to put any global orders on hold.
I thought the same thing, I worked for PepsiCo before I made the move to where I am now. If I was still there, it would be the most relaxed laidback WFH situation for a month with zero worries (I worked on a pretty inelastic product segment and our group went through 3 lay-off periods during my tenure and didn’t lose a single employee).
I truly wish you the best JWags. It's a crappy situation and the stimulus package can't give you much comfort. America needs entrepreneurs like you, so I hope our leaders can come up with something that bails out businesses like yours, as they're doing for larger companies and (most) individuals.
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It’s not a sucker bounce. [snip]. But this isn’t some dead cat that’s going to be completely erased next week.
I'm not sure I'd put money on that.
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Not sure where else to put this. Here seems to make a bit of sense.
Delta just called us (we are a vendor) and asked to defer for 90 days a 7 figure bill that they have due next month.
I am sure we were not the only vendor called.
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I had my first customer send me notification that they were operating on Payment Terms Net 45 rather than any previous set terms until July 31.
Still better than 90 days.
I'm expecting more.
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Not sure where else to put this. Here seems to make a bit of sense.
Delta just called us (we are a vendor) and asked to defer for 90 days a 7 figure bill that they have due next month.
I am sure we were not the only vendor called.
Sorry to hear that.
Pathetic, absolutely f*****in pathetic on their part
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I had my first customer send me notification that they were operating on Payment Terms Net 45 rather than any previous set terms until July 31.
Still better than 90 days.
I'm expecting more.
At least they communicated that much. I had multiple customers with overdue invoices say some version “we won’t be making payment against overdue invoices until Covid-related business conditions improve”.
My favorite were 3 diff Indian customers, each 30+ days overdue who dodged calls and requests repeatedly but responded THE DAY AFTER India’s lockdown was announced saying they couldn’t pay cause “as you know, India is on lockdown”.
It’s been fun. Especially cause I know these companies have 8-9 figure annual revenues and they are withholding $5-10-15K payments
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Sorry to hear that.
Pathetic, absolutely f*****in pathetic on their part
It was rejected, but I suggested that they could do it, but we inform them about our “change fee”. Our finance guy thought it was hysterical but not appropriate.
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At least they communicated that much. I had multiple customers with overdue invoices say some version “we won’t be making payment against overdue invoices until Covid-related business conditions improve”.
My favorite were 3 diff Indian customers, each 30+ days overdue who dodged calls and requests repeatedly but responded THE DAY AFTER India’s lockdown was announced saying they couldn’t pay cause “as you know, India is on lockdown”.
It’s been fun. Especially cause I know these companies have 8-9 figure annual revenues and they are withholding $5-10-15K payments
My company has been pushing for COD with Indian customers unless they are a western company.
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At least they communicated that much. I had multiple customers with overdue invoices say some version “we won’t be making payment against overdue invoices until Covid-related business conditions improve”.
My favorite were 3 diff Indian customers, each 30+ days overdue who dodged calls and requests repeatedly but responded THE DAY AFTER India’s lockdown was announced saying they couldn’t pay cause “as you know, India is on lockdown”.
It’s been fun. Especially cause I know these companies have 8-9 figure annual revenues and they are withholding $5-10-15K payments
Good luck Wags. Sending prayers the way of all business owners. The true brave. Take care.
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The true brave.
I also am hoping for good things for Wags and other small-business owners, but why are they "the true brave"?
Nurses aren't truly brave right now? Doctors? Other health-care professionals? Firefighters and cops and soldiers aren't truly brave all the time? Not sure why you would label only small-business owners as truly brave. Seems odd. Serious question.
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I also am hoping for good things for Wags and other small-business owners, but why are they "the true brave"?
Nurses aren't truly brave right now? Doctors? Other health-care professionals? Firefighters and cops and soldiers aren't truly brave all the time? Not sure why you would label only small-business owners as truly brave. Seems odd. Serious question.
All of the above are noble and heroic professions as well. Wasn't meant to dis them or others. Why the "true brave?" The entrepreneur lays their own capital on the line, and to succeed has to take something from an idea to a reality. In so doing they build a business that others become dependent upon to also provide a livelihood - not to mention generate tax revenue for the public sector. Until you've had sleepless nights worrying about how you can make payroll, not lay people off - knowing they are good people and good workers - it is hard to fathom the stress.
And of course doctors, nurses, police, firefighters encounter stressful realities - however, they don't have the stress of funding their own profession, worrying about if they are going to get paid, and able to pay others, etc.
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And of course doctors, nurses, police, firefighters encounter stressful realities - however, they don't have the stress of funding their own profession, worrying about if they are going to get paid, and able to pay others, etc.
Yeah, those people only have to risk their very life. Right now, they are being asked to care for patients with a deadly virus without a mask and little or no PPE, leading to them getting infected, possibly infecting their families, and possibly dying.
I'll stick with them being the "true brave".
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Yeah, those people only have to risk their very life. Right now, they are being asked to care for patients with a deadly virus without a mask and little or no PPE, leading to them getting infected, possibly infecting their families, and possibly dying.
I'll stick with them being the "true brave".
My girlfriend is an ER doc. Trust me. I get it, and understand the heroism. However, she's yet to be without PPE or masks, thankfully.
But yes, risking ones life trumps laying ones cash on the line. So, I stand corrected.
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All of the above are noble and heroic professions as well. Wasn't meant to dis them or others. Why the "true brave?" The entrepreneur lays their own capital on the line, and to succeed has to take something from an idea to a reality. In so doing they build a business that others become dependent upon to also provide a livelihood - not to mention generate tax revenue for the public sector. Until you've had sleepless nights worrying about how you can make payroll, not lay people off - knowing they are good people and good workers - it is hard to fathom the stress.
And of course doctors, nurses, police, firefighters encounter stressful realities - however, they don't have the stress of funding their own profession, worrying about if they are going to get paid, and able to pay others, etc.
No, they only lay their lives on the line.
I admire small-business owners. I thought about being one, and I admittedly wasn't brave enough to do it.
But I still don't get labeling them as "the true brave." I know it probably seems like I'm picking on you here, but it just doesn't make sense to claim they are "truly braver" than soldiers serving tours in war zones, nurses treating patients during a pandemic or firefighters rushing into burning buildings to rescue people.
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My girlfriend is an ER doc. Trust me. I get it, and understand the heroism. However, she's yet to be without PPE or masks, thankfully.
But yes, risking ones life trumps laying ones cash on the line. So, I stand corrected.
Ners ... just saw this after I posted my previous comment. I appreciate you being willing to reconsider.
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My girlfriend is an ER doc. Trust me. I get it, and understand the heroism. However, she's yet to be without PPE or masks, thankfully.
But yes, risking ones life trumps laying ones cash on the line. So, I stand corrected.
A close friend is a doc in NY, she is likely now infected, because they were out of PPE and still had to treat patients.
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Ners ... just saw this after I posted my previous comment. I appreciate you being willing to reconsider.
Yes. You and forgetful made better points causing me to reconsider.
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A disheartening look from an investment analyst I have come to respect after reading his work for years:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygGFd-30FM8
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AMRN....oh my word
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AMRN....oh my word
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3556531-amarin-plunges-after-court-decision-on-vascepa
Amarin plunges after court decision on Vascepa
Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) has lost its patent battle against generics.
Update: The court found that the generic firms' marketing applications will infringe on the asserted claims of the Amarin patent but added that the asserted claims are invalid as obvious.
Update: In a statement, the company says it will appeal the ruling and seek an injunction if the FDA approves a marketing application for a generic version of Vascepa.
I hope nobody was in too deep on this one.
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On the other hand, for those who have done the research and really believe in AMRN long-term (or who simply like to do some day-trading), it's a lot better value today. Good luck to all.
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Ners jump off a bridge yet? If he's not a liar, he's lost like 80% of his money in two months.
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Not yet. Was a devastating ruling, and I feel terribly for recommending/advocating for AMRN. The ruling defied all logic. The judge was an employment and labor attorney, never having presided over a patent case. The USTPO awarded AMRN 10 patents. There is no "obviousness" behind the mechanism of action for Vascepa.
The science behind AMRN's Vascepa is far more complex than this judge was able to discern. It is not fish oil. AMRN will be appealing, and filing an injunction should either of the generics try to proceed with an application to FDA. I expect AMRN to prevail on appeal, or they will simply litigate the F out of this, thus delaying generics ability to enter market. They are clear in Canada, and soon the European Union and India for 10+ years.
I bought 1,000 more shares today at $4.07. AMRN at one time was 80% of my portfolio in November. I pared that back to 40% since that time due to COVID. But, this was a big f'in loss for me.
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Since it is a patent trial, the appeal will go to the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. (Versus the regional appellate courts where most appeals are heard.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Court_of_Appeals_for_the_Federal_Circuit
The good news for Amarin is that these judges have extensive experience in patent law, and can generally "see through" some of the legal tactics that sway regular district judges. (I have a friend to works for the medical device industry and has had to deal with a couple of these types of cases.)
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Since it is a patent trial, the appeal will go to the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. (Versus the regional appellate courts where most appeals are heard.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Court_of_Appeals_for_the_Federal_Circuit
The good news for Amarin is that these judges have extensive experience in patent law, and can generally "see through" some of the legal tactics that sway regular district judges. (I have a friend to works for the medical device industry and has had to deal with a couple of these types of cases.)
Thanks for posting.
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Not yet. Was a devastating ruling, and I feel terribly for recommending/advocating for AMRN. The ruling defied all logic. The judge was an employment and labor attorney, never having presided over a patent case. The USTPO awarded AMRN 10 patents. There is no "obviousness" behind the mechanism of action for Vascepa.
The science behind AMRN's Vascepa is far more complex than this judge was able to discern. It is not fish oil. AMRN will be appealing, and filing an injunction should either of the generics try to proceed with an application to FDA. I expect AMRN to prevail on appeal, or they will simply litigate the F out of this, thus delaying generics ability to enter market. They are clear in Canada, and soon the European Union and India for 10+ years.
I bought 1,000 more shares today at $4.07. AMRN at one time was 80% of my portfolio in November. I pared that back to 40% since that time due to COVID. But, this was a big f'in loss for me.
Sorry to hear that, that is rough. Biotech can be high reward, but it is definitely high risk. Hopefully this turns around for you.
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Sorry to hear that, that is rough. Biotech can be high reward, but it is definitely high risk. Hopefully this turns around for you.
Thanks. Classy. Had to buy back in at $4.07 to help get dollar cost average down some. I do feel over time this will bounce back. Psychologically hard to buy on bad news, yet it does create an opportunity if one truly believes in their investment thesis/due diligence.
I agree biotechs are volatile, yet this was one very far down the road, with a massive TAM, which had been doubling revenues 4 years in a row. With the broadened label approval they got in early December their TAM increased ~ 7x from what they built $450M in rev on in 2019.
Fingers crossed it turns around over next few years.
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I was thinking with all these debt payments ..
What if we could monkey with the calendar: March 1st has been extended past 24 hours and now will last 90 days, followed by March 2nd.
Nobody likes January, so we'll skip that for the next 3 years and be back on track.
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I up thinking with all these debt payments ..
What if we could monkey with the calendar: March 1st has been extended past 24 hours and now will last 90 days, followed by March 2nd.
Nobody likes January, so we'll skip that for the next 3 years and be back on track.
Can you also turn my 1 loaf of bread into 12 loaves of bread (times all the items in my refrigerator/pantry) - then I think we're all set to shut things down for your day. Oh, and free gas, electric, water, internet and trash in that day too.
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Its a good idea for long-term investors to revisit their asset allocation. While we typically say you should rebalance your portfolio at least once per year, it is during times like this, when there is extreme volatility that asset allocations get out of balance. Stay invested for the long-term, be diversified, and rebalance.
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Sorry to hear that.
Pathetic, absolutely f*****in pathetic on their part
Not really, businesses don’t have much choice
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Can you also turn my 1 loaf of bread into 12 loaves of bread (times all the items in my refrigerator/pantry) - then I think we're all set to shut things down for your day. Oh, and free gas, electric, water, internet and trash in that day too.
Yes! There's a special admin menu on MUScoop where we can edit that stuff.
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Things I am seeing and hearing from people much smarter than I say **** may be hitting the fan hard in the next 2-3 weeks. They don't think we hit the bottom yet at all. Thoughts of S&P below 2000.
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Things I am seeing and hearing from people much smarter than I say **** may be hitting the fan hard in the next 2-3 weeks. They don't think we hit the bottom yet at all. Thoughts of S&P below 2000.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised.
Investing is always a kind of gambling. Now seems especially gambly.
Since this began, I have bought small additional stakes in a few positions I already held, but I am treading very carefully, guarding the dry powder I spent a year building as if it were solid gold. Which to me it is.
Good fortune to all.
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Not really, businesses don’t have much choice
Just want to confirm. You’re saying airlines had no choice in buying stock buybacks the past 10 years, all while f****ng the customer?
Ok
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Just want to confirm. You’re saying airlines had no choice in buying stock buybacks the past 10 years, all while f****ng the customer?
Ok
He’s also the one that said he’d be scared to be walking around as an Asian American in the US right now. So, yea...
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Things I am seeing and hearing from people much smarter than I say **** may be hitting the fan hard in the next 2-3 weeks. They don't think we hit the bottom yet at all. Thoughts of S&P below 2000.
I guess the question is, how much of this had been priced in already. There is no reason the stock market should be up today.
Unemployment numbers way higher than expected. Cases and deaths through the roof.
Hot spots breaking out nationwide.
Stock market goes up. Strange and scary times.
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My guess is that a lot of the bad news has been priced in, markets tend to overreact to the downside and I believe the lows were made last week Monday. Of course, I can also be wrong and there could be another big sell-off. The truth is no one really knows and it's been proven many, many times that trying to time the market is not very wise as you are likely to get that wrong.
When people take their money out of the market during these crashes, they are very hesitant to put that money back in. Markets will start their climb back up before the situation at hand is under control and the data starts looking good, so while it doesn't make sense that the market is up on a day like today it didn't make sense on 3/9/2009 which is the day the markets bottomed during the financial crisis.
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My guess is that a lot of the bad news has been priced in, markets tend to overreact to the downside and I believe the lows were made last week Monday. Of course, I can also be wrong and there could be another big sell-off. The truth is no one really knows and it's been proven many, many times that trying to time the market is not very wise as you are likely to get that wrong.
When people take their money out of the market during these crashes, they are very hesitant to put that money back in. Markets will start their climb back up before the situation at hand is under control and the data starts looking good, so while it doesn't make sense that the market is up on a day like today it didn't make sense on 3/9/2009 which is the day the markets bottomed during the financial crisis.
The market had many, many up days, with significant gains, between Oct 2008 (when many thought it had bottomed) and 3/9/09 (when it actually did, finally, bottom). They're commonly referred to as "dead-cat bounces." Unfortunately, we won't know what these little upward blips are, or whether the market did in fact hit a bottom last week, until we can look back in hindsight months or even years from now.
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The market had many, many up days, with significant gains, between Oct 2008 (when many thought it had bottomed) and 3/9/09 (when it actually did, finally, bottom). They're commonly referred to as "dead-cat bounces." Unfortunately, we won't know what these little upward blips are, or whether the market did in fact hit a bottom last week, until we can look back in hindsight months or even years from now.
Your timing is dead on looking at Oct. 2008. What happened in early Nov 2008 is a lot of the historical fundamentals I am seeing mirror up to what we have now.
Last weeks gains were driven very heavily by pensions rebalancing and I don't believe it to be indicative of the actual health of the market. If you were able to ride the wave, great. But it's not over. I'm still waiting until sub 2100. I originally had 2500. I am going lower. With earnings calls starting and companies offering revised guidance there will be a lot of movement. Also, as we move into peak times and force of COVID is fully felt we'll see the actual impact. I fear we've only had big tremors so far.
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The market had many, many up days, with significant gains, between Oct 2008 (when many thought it had bottomed) and 3/9/09 (when it actually did, finally, bottom). They're commonly referred to as "dead-cat bounces." Unfortunately, we won't know what these little upward blips are, or whether the market did in fact hit a bottom last week, until we can look back in hindsight months or even years from now.
Stocks go up, stocks go down. Not picking on you personally, but people are too eager to label every green day as a "dead cat bounce". Some are just pressure release of oversold conditions, some are better than expected "bad news", some are just major hedge funds with a bearish bias taking a day off of short positions.
People freaking out about a green market today ignore the 8% drop on over the last few days. The futures bounced hard on overnight oversold conditions and then sold off pretty hard once the actual numbers came out. Aka, the market front ran the bad news the last few days (buy the rumor, sell the news as we often here...though reversed to the downside), and the fact that it was worse than expected kind of erased the second portion.
People, especially in bad times, just assume everything needs to be an elevator down or the market has to surge/crater in real time.
Last weeks gains were driven very heavily by pensions rebalancing and I don't believe it to be indicative of the actual health of the market. If you were able to ride the wave, great. But it's not over. I'm still waiting until sub 2100. I originally had 2500. I am going lower. With earnings calls starting and companies offering revised guidance there will be a lot of movement. Also, as we move into peak times and force of COVID is fully felt we'll see the actual impact. I fear we've only had big tremors so far.
This is what I keep telling people. The true drops, if they occur, will be when we get actual bad earnings and guidance, not speculations. We already had one of the fastest drops in history, and people think another 10-20% will come immediately? Thats just market ignorance and overreaction.
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The market had many, many up days, with significant gains, between Oct 2008 (when many thought it had bottomed) and 3/9/09 (when it actually did, finally, bottom). They're commonly referred to as "dead-cat bounces." Unfortunately, we won't know what these little upward blips are, or whether the market did in fact hit a bottom last week, until we can look back in hindsight months or even years from now.
It's true that there are market rallies during bear markets, but that is not the point. The point is no one knows when it will bottom or if it has already. The market will bottom well before the headlines start to turn positive. There will be some ugly numbers being reported over the next few weeks, the markets know that already. Long-term investors should stay invested and not pull out and try to jump back in. They likely won't have a reason to get back in the market because the news will still look bad and won't believe any rally is for real when there are so many negative headlines. By the time the news improves, they will have missed a market recovery.
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Stocks go up, stocks go down. Not picking on you personally, but people are too eager to label every green day as a "dead cat bounce". Some are just pressure release of oversold conditions, some are better than expected "bad news", some are just major hedge funds with a bearish bias taking a day off of short positions.
People freaking out about a green market today ignore the 8% drop on over the last few days. The futures bounced hard on overnight oversold conditions and then sold off pretty hard once the actual numbers came out. Aka, the market front ran the bad news the last few days (buy the rumor, sell the news as we often here...though reversed to the downside), and the fact that it was worse than expected kind of erased the second portion.
People, especially in bad times, just assume everything needs to be an elevator down or the market has to surge/crater in real time.
I don't believe you and I think differently on any of this. Perhaps I shouldn't have used the "dead-cat bounce" terminology.
It's true that there are market rallies during bear markets, but that is not the point. The point is no one knows when it will bottom or if it has already. The market will bottom well before the headlines start to turn positive. There will be some ugly numbers being reported over the next few weeks, the markets know that already. Long-term investors should stay invested and not pull out and try to jump back in. They likely won't have a reason to get back in the market because the news will still look bad and won't believe any rally is for real when there are so many negative headlines. By the time the news improves, they will have missed a market recovery.
I made the same point.
I have not sold a single share of a single stock since last fall. I am a long-term investor, and about 60% of my portfolio is in stocks. I am looking for buying opportunities, and I am well aware that I have just about zero percent chance of doing so at the exact bottom.
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Some are going to have to sell for liquidity sake. People lose jobs and they start to tap into their savings and investments. That sell off won’t happen for a little while, but it is coming.
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haven't really followed the price of 3M, but they are going to get a big $panking
were sending n95's masks(280 million) over seas while our supplies are in the red zone
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haven't really followed the price of 3M, but they are going to get a big $panking
were sending n95's masks(280 million) over seas while our supplies are in the red zone
The man in charge said he didn't want to interfere with the market, and let the market handle it. That is what the market dictated.
The person who should get a spanking is the one who didn't execute the defense production act for this very reason. Shame! Shame! Shame!
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The man in charge said he didn't want to interfere with the market, and let the market handle it. That is what the market dictated.
The person who should get a spanking is the one who didn't execute the defense production act for this very reason. Shame! Shame! Shame!
Politics.
Calm down. Grow up.
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Politics.
Calm down. Grow up.
Forgetful is correct.
Had the DPA been enforced, 3M would have sent those masks to needy hospitals in the US.
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The man in charge said he didn't want to interfere with the market, and let the market handle it. That is what the market dictated.
The person who should get a spanking is the one who didn't execute the defense production act for this very reason. Shame! Shame! Shame!
No. You guys are too predictable. 3M was wrong. They didn’t need the dpa to tell them anything. Do the damn right thing-period. They sold the country out and their timing was a little off. Whoever directed those sales for 3M is a treasonous moron. I just wish you guys were just 1/2 as critical on Hussein, as you are today. you know the scandal free one?
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Hussein
Perfect.
When the debate is lost, go to "whataboutism." And then ramp up the hate by calling him Hussein. Well done, Rush.
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No. You guys are too predictable. 3M was wrong. They didn’t need the dpa to tell them anything. Do the damn right thing-period. They sold the country out and their timing was a little off. Whoever directed those sales for 3M is a treasonous moron. I just wish you guys were just 1/2 as critical on Hussein, as you are today. you know the scandal free one?
This is the other side of the story and I'm not taking a position. Right or wrong we have globalized our Health Care supply chain and this 'war' has exposed that issue.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-response-defense-production-act-123900468.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-response-defense-production-act-123900468.html)
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Handled another potential customer yesterday helping him get aluminum flat wire, aka nose wire.
He's an awning company in Jacksonville, FL getting into mask making.
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CEO of 3M will be on Squawk any minute now.
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Perfect.
When the debate is lost, go to "whataboutism." And then ramp up the hate by calling him Hussein. Well done, Rush.
Actually have him the benefit of the doubt and read it as Sadam Hussein
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Back to investing ...
Are folks buying anything this week?
I'm trying to stay very patient.
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Back to investing ...
Are folks buying anything this week?
I'm trying to stay very patient.
No. Jim Bianco said something that stuck with me. He said "Don't run out to catch the falling knife". I'd rather be more certain we're down and miss 5% of recovery than to go in and and have it fall another 15%. Anyone who thinks we're going to go back quickly to where we were at the end of 2019 is in for a rude awakening. We're in the middle of an event that will alter history and it's foolish to assume thing will go back to a pre COVID world once we're thru this. Business will begin to rethink how they do business. Lots of unknown.
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Back to investing ...
Are folks buying anything this week?
I'm trying to stay very patient.
Well, I bought SPY puts. My next mark for any new money is at 40% off the all-time highs, having already put in nearly the full amounts I had previously allocated at 20% and 30% down. So far those purchases are holding up ok, but I too expect another leg down here.
I feel like the totally uncoordinated effort of stay-at-home orders and enforcement are going to draw this crisis out into the summer, and I think the death tolls are likely to get bad in the next 2-3 weeks.
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Dumped a bunch into LK yesterday and today, average around $6. Accounting fraud is bad, yes, however, that came post-IPO. The IPO price, which was fairly vetted, was $17. I think it has potential to rise back to those levels fairly easily.
Additionally, LK grabs market share cause its about a third of the price of SBUX in China. The consumer isn't going to stop drinking coffee at that price cause of accounting malfeasance. Additionally, they do a lot of grab and go and pick up business which will still thrive in a cautious post-COVID environment.
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Anybody have thoughts on the quibi IPO?
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Dumped a bunch into LK yesterday and today, average around $6. Accounting fraud is bad, yes, however, that came post-IPO. The IPO price, which was fairly vetted, was $17. I think it has potential to rise back to those levels fairly easily.
Additionally, LK grabs market share cause its about a third of the price of SBUX in China. The consumer isn't going to stop drinking coffee at that price cause of accounting malfeasance. Additionally, they do a lot of grab and go and pick up business which will still thrive in a cautious post-COVID environment.
I think that's a pretty good spec play, Wags, and I like your reasoning behind it. It's not my kind of investing, but I like it.
Back in 2016, the SEC launched an investigation into Boeing's accounting practices and shares dropped under 115, which was a great deal at the time. I bought about $10K worth then and it ended up being a great investment; the investigation proved to be nothing big and shares eventually went over 400. I sold mine last year at 368 because I was tired of the drama. But it shows how an alert buy of a downtrodden company can be fruitful sometimes. (Of course, sometimes it isn't.)
SBUX went way up after the LK news but it has given back most of those gains, FWIW.
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Well, I bought SPY puts. My next mark for any new money is at 40% off the all-time highs, having already put in nearly the full amounts I had previously allocated at 20% and 30% down. So far those purchases are holding up ok, but I too expect another leg down here.
I feel like the totally uncoordinated effort of stay-at-home orders and enforcement are going to draw this crisis out into the summer, and I think the death tolls are likely to get bad in the next 2-3 weeks.
Think that's a great strategy, and one I hadn't thought about. What strike date did you buy?
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Well, I bought SPY puts. My next mark for any new money is at 40% off the all-time highs, having already put in nearly the full amounts I had previously allocated at 20% and 30% down. So far those purchases are holding up ok, but I too expect another leg down here.
I feel like the totally uncoordinated effort of stay-at-home orders and enforcement are going to draw this crisis out into the summer, and I think the death tolls are likely to get bad in the next 2-3 weeks.
What month and strike price? Volatility has fallen a lot but is still high.
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No. You guys are too predictable. 3M was wrong. They didn’t need the dpa to tell them anything. Do the damn right thing-period. They sold the country out and their timing was a little off. Whoever directed those sales for 3M is a treasonous moron.
I cut the politics out of this.
3M is based in the US but is a multinational corporation. As I understand this, these masks were never in the US but in Asia right? And people in Asia are suffering too. Hell they are suffering all over the world.
We aren’t fighting another country. We are fighting a virus. So phrases like “selling out your country” and “treason” really aren’t applicable here. I mean we don’t even know if the sales person is American.
This is what you get with multinational corporations and relatively low trade barriers.
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What month and strike price? Volatility has fallen a lot but is still high.
April 17 strike. As far as strike price...I'll only say that I bought these a while back and you are right, volatility has tamped down and now the time premium is eroding so I am underwater currently. I was (am) thinking there is going to be a leg down as the death toll mounts, but I may be running out of time on these puts.
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April 17 strike. As far as strike price...I'll only say that I bought these a while back and you are right, volatility has tamped down and now the time premium is eroding so I am underwater currently. I was (am) thinking there is going to be a leg down as the death toll mounts, but I may be running out of time on these puts.
I've bought some puts as well and am thinking about hedging somewhat by selling other puts that have a good chance of expiring worthless in the next week.
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Dumped a bunch into LK yesterday and today, average around $6. Accounting fraud is bad, yes, however, that came post-IPO. The IPO price, which was fairly vetted, was $17. I think it has potential to rise back to those levels fairly easily.
Additionally, LK grabs market share cause its about a third of the price of SBUX in China. The consumer isn't going to stop drinking coffee at that price cause of accounting malfeasance. Additionally, they do a lot of grab and go and pick up business which will still thrive in a cautious post-COVID environment.
Thought of you when I read this, Wags. Thought you might be interested.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4335804-luckin-coffee-crashes-76-thursday-what-you-need-to-know
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Thought of you when I read this, Wags. Thought you might be interested.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4335804-luckin-coffee-crashes-76-thursday-what-you-need-to-know
Very interesting read. Appreciate it.
Bloody day for it. A lot of people snapping up LK debt and shorting as a hedge. Will keep an eye on it here, maybe grab more under 5 if it holds $4 in the coming days. Earnings should be coming up in the next week or two, would expect a pop there.
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Market gave it all back today.
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Market gave it all back today.
Gave up the gap and spike but not yesterday’s gains, not even the late day spike. But I think this is constructive. It’s probing technical ranges, respecting support and resistance levels. The ranges are HUGE and comparing it to, say, this time last year makes it look wild, but there seems to be some rhyme or reason at least.
Tomorrow and Thursday will be interesting. Still think we probe higher to open up downside ranges for the next week or two when earnings start to come out.
Oh also, LK halted. Rumors of a T12 halt, meaning the SEC would be requesting information and exploring further which is a half that can last days, not hours. Seems like a coin flip of being sent to OTCs, or satisfactory findings give them a further all clear and it pops back to double digits. As if the market wasn’t exciting enough :o
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Another day another amazing stat...
Today the DJIA was up over 4% and closed down on the day.
Since 1925 (95 yrs!), up more than 4% and closing down on the day has happened only one other time ... Oct 14, 2008 (Tsy Sec Hank Paulson forced the banks to take TARP money).
(1/2)
7:21pm · 7 Apr 2020 · Twitter Web App
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Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
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The S&P 500 was up 3.5% at the high and closed down on the day.
Since April 1982 (daily H,L,C began) has happened three other times...Oct 3, 08, Oct 14, 08, and Oct 17, 08.
This mkt continues to trade like Oct 08. It was six months and another 25% down before the low.
(2/2)
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Gave up the gap and spike but not yesterday’s gains, not even the late day spike. But I think this is constructive. It’s probing technical ranges, respecting support and resistance levels. The ranges are HUGE and comparing it to, say, this time last year makes it look wild, but there seems to be some rhyme or reason at least.
Tomorrow and Thursday will be interesting. Still think we probe higher to open up downside ranges for the next week or two when earnings start to come out.
Oh also, LK halted. Rumors of a T12 halt, meaning the SEC would be requesting information and exploring further which is a half that can last days, not hours. Seems like a coin flip of being sent to OTCs, or satisfactory findings give them a further all clear and it pops back to double digits. As if the market wasn’t exciting enough :o
Yeah, I was talking about today because folks had commented here early today about the big market jump, wondering how it was possible.
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Lots of volatility and slow growth ahead...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-stockmarket-volatility-less-buying-the-dip-and-slower-earnings-per-share-growth-ahead-goldman-sachs-says-2020-04-07 (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-stockmarket-volatility-less-buying-the-dip-and-slower-earnings-per-share-growth-ahead-goldman-sachs-says-2020-04-07)
Also, look for a multi shaped growth curve. The way the fed is structuring the support some areas will be V, small biz a U, and if if you're not really supported L.
Other words...BUMPS!!!!
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Couple of interesting blurbs I read today on Seeking Alpha.
First, about the earnings season ...
First quarter earnings season kicks off in under a week, starting with the financial sector, with reports expected from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo on April 14.
This time around, "beats or "misses" will largely be irrelevant, because the results will be lowered by a tremendous increase in provisions for loan loss reserves, as well as considerations for a difficult economic cycle through 2021.
Some analysts haven't even updated their estimates since before Feb. 19, when the S&P 500 hit its last closing record, meaning consensus estimates are dulled by "stragglers."
Then, some serious doom-and-gloom stuff from former Cisco CEO John Chambers ...
"Companies are running out of cash," said John Chambers, the legendary tech CEO who turned Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) into a powerhouse, expecting the worst over the next nine months to year.
He sees the pandemic as a three-axis disrupter to the economy, healthcare system, and global supply chain, with the travel and airline industries recovering much more slowly than retail and financial institutions.
"Companies will either be destroyed or break away if they follow their North Star," he cautions, adding that "for many, it will be like a second chance to do an IPO."
During the interview with MarketWatch, Chambers also dropped names like Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), Zoom Video (NASDAQ:ZM) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) as examples of large businesses that have taken the necessary steps to transform their operations in the digital age.
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Another look at what a recovery might look like.
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-the-economic-recovery-wont-only-be-u-shaped-itll-look-like-a-wheelbarrow-135969
The economic effects of the coronavirus crisis will be severe but short-lived, according to much of the recent commentary. The cautious revival in stock markets points in the same direction, while recent polling suggests that 75% of business people share this view. Most of them expect economic activity to rebound this year.
The rationale is that the economy before the coronavirus was in great shape. Stock indices were hitting new highs, with the Dow Jones average flirting with 30,000 in early February (it’s now around 22,500). The US unemployment rate was 3.5% in February, a level not seen for over 50 years. If the economy is fundamentally sound, the reasoning goes, the worldwide lockdowns are merely hitting a pause button for a short time.
We hope that this optimism is correct, but the economic recovery will most likely be long and slow. We are talking U-shaped at best – and probably more like a wheelbarrow than a wok.
What lies ahead
Even with massive government interventions such as the US$2 trillion (£1.6 trillion) stimulus package in America, businesses and markets will take longer to recover than people might think. There are likely to be many bankruptcies. Businesses continue to operate during a bankruptcy reorganisation, but it severely limits their ability to plan, react to market changes, hire employees, or just have any of the flexibility that is essential to succeed.
The average bankruptcy takes 260 days to work out. During that period, businesses will have a hard time rebuilding. Management will be distracted, while most employees will be thinking about getting more secure employment. And even companies that don’t need bankruptcy protection will need time to rebuild credit facilities, rehire personnel and re-establish customer relationships.
Try running an airline under bankruptcy protection.
Now consider the complexity of the global supply chain. More than 90% of Fortune 1,000 companies have at least one tier-2 (secondary) supplier in Hubei, the Chinese province around Wuhan. Fewer than one in five of these companies have a tier-1 supplier in the region, but one failed link can disrupt the whole chain. The link can be replaced, but it takes time. While this happens, businesses up and down the supply chain have to cool their heels.
Existing weaknesses
There were also pre-crisis weaknesses in the world economy that will now be even harder for the sunken economic system to handle. While the average ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings was not bad pre-crisis considering the level of interest rates, most of the juice was in FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) and Microsoft. These tech goliaths account for around one-fifth of the total value of the S&P 500.
More disturbingly, 40% of all US corporate debt was rated BBB, just above junk, going into the crisis, while only 30% of the world’s outstanding stock of non-financial corporate bonds were rated A or above. A huge name like Kraft Heinz was downgraded to junk in mid-February, meaning it is considered high-risk and will pay higher borrowing rates on its debt. Historically, about 5% of BBB bonds are downgraded to junk each year. In the current crisis, expect a lot more.
Devil is in the debt-tail.
Despite central bank interest-rate cuts, borrowing costs for companies are now rising dramatically. With further downgrades from credit ratings agencies all but guaranteed, especially with many big earnings announcements due after Easter, some companies will lose access to credit altogether. Moody’s estimates that the default rate for junk-rated companies could hit an astounding 10%, compared to a historical average of 4%.
Scenario planning
The old saying goes, hope for the best but prepare for the worst. A wheelbarrow is our most likely scenario that businesses and governments should prepare for – a long, drawn-out bottom and a slow, upward recovery – but even this assumes that the coronavirus restrictions are fully lifted in the next few months.
In reality, they might not be. There is lots of talk about herd immunity, but it’s not yet clear the degree to which immunity is developed by infected people who survive. Authorities may be reluctant to completely loosen controls, given how much we don’t about the coronavirus.
As for the race to develop a vaccine, flu vaccines are relatively ineffective. They reduce your risk of becoming ill by 40% to 60%, compared to 97% for measles vaccines and 88% for mumps. We could easily end up in a situation where a COVID-19 vaccine solves part of the problem but doesn’t erase the need for some restrictions. Lockdowns might end, while other measures like social distancing, limits on gatherings and travel restrictions continue – perhaps on a seasonal basis.
South Korea could be a glimpse into the future. It has so far avoided an Italian-style health crisis without a lockdown, but has still imposed various restrictions on the economy. It has postponed the spring school semester and has advised people to work remotely, avoid crowds and meetings, and wear masks.
Should this become the new semi-normal, the restaurant industry could generally disappear. Few restaurants can afford to operate at half-capacity at best. The live entertainment industry could go the same way, as would multiplexes. South Korea’s cinemas have experienced a 90% decline in attendances, for example.
South Korea’s love of cinema is on ice. Stadium sports are another obvious victim, and don’t be certain that TV subscriptions will make up the shortfall: the roar of the crowd has always been part of the attraction for viewers in bars and living rooms.
Perhaps more consequential is the potential impact on factories, warehouses and knowledge workers. There are at least hopeful signs that knowledge workers in everything from design to clinical research to law might be more productive outside the office. But will factories and warehouses need to be converted into the equivalent of clean or semi-clean rooms? Estimates for such a conversion run from US$100 to US$1,000 per square foot, which amounts to a considerable overall cost to the economy.
These are some of the things to bear in mind when commentators talk optimistically about where the world economy will be heading in the coming months. No one wants to sound alarmist, but it is better to start reflecting on these possibilities rather than being caught unawares further down the line.
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Todays numbers are what I was unfortunately thinking was going to happen. I realize that analysts had been baking in declines to evaluations but when actual numbers come in much worse than expectations, markets react violently.
Hold onto your hats, keep good bottle of whisk(e)y around, and be kind.
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As I write this, SPY up 3.5% after hours thanks to Gilead's successful remdesivir test in Chicago (which I mentioned in the treatments thread).
Obviously, if it proves to be a successful long-term treatment for COVID-19, it's huge for the country, and the whole world.
Very small side benefit:
My GILD position, which has been underwater almost since I bought it several years back, might finally get back to break even. It's up 16% AH right now.
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drug company gilead stock up $2 during day, over $12 after hours-remdesivir
this is a company my eddy jones guy suggested a couple of years ago when it was $64-it's tickling $90
gotta have something to smile about
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Pretty amazing track record for GILD. Ground breaking in HIV treatment. Leader in Hepatitis, now potentially a trendsetter for COVID. Brilliant.
Interested to see the stock reaction. It’s been aggressively sell the rip the last few months. Every spike has been beaten back. This is obviously more substantive so it will stick. I’ve been in and out of calls. I stayed away after the lack of any China trial data. So naturally this happens :o
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GILD opened big (nearly to $86) but now pulling back a little - up 8% to $83-ish as I write this.
Trying to decide if I want to sell on this spike or just let it hang around my portfolio. It is my third-smallest position, so whether I keep it or sell it won't make much of a difference, so I might just keep it, collect the divvy and see if it can get back over $100 eventually. Hard not to at least consider selling, though.
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GILD opened big (nearly to $86) but now pulling back a little - up 8% to $83-ish as I write this.
Trying to decide if I want to sell on this spike or just let it hang around my portfolio. It is my third-smallest position, so whether I keep it or sell it won't make much of a difference, so I might just keep it, collect the divvy and see if it can get back over $100 eventually. Hard not to at least consider selling, though.
Sell half, then ride the rest. That's what I do in these situations.
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GILD opened big (nearly to $86) but now pulling back a little - up 8% to $83-ish as I write this.
Trying to decide if I want to sell on this spike or just let it hang around my portfolio. It is my third-smallest position, so whether I keep it or sell it won't make much of a difference, so I might just keep it, collect the divvy and see if it can get back over $100 eventually. Hard not to at least consider selling, though.
This is not investment advice...now I am caveated MU82 style :)
When I think about GILD, I look back at the brilliant solution they brought to market to cure, permanently, hepatitis. Cure as in eradicate it once you have it, not cure it as in vaccinate against it like small pox. And therein was their problem.
They had an enormous spike in revenue and profit from curing all the people suffering from the various forms of hep. And ironically, their success in curing people rather than making them dependent on a maintenance drug caused them to languish once they ran through all the back cases of hep. So my question is, does the same thing happen with a potential COVID* treatment?
If it does end up being the go-to treatment, they are going to see an enormous spike again and the stock is going to retest its all-time highs. But there are an awful lot of treatments being tested, some of which are also showing initial promise, AND longer term there is the possibility one of the vaccines being developed eliminate the need for treatments at all somewhere down the road. So in my mind those are the risk you have to balance.
Longer term, I am skittish about their incredibly successful HIV franchise. Like Hep-C, their drugs have provided enormous benefit to those with HIV, driving the disease to virtually undetectable levels in patients' bloodstreams. But the worries I would have are 1) Other companies are trying very hard to eat into that extremely profitable revenue stream, and 2) there are additional companies working on vaccines, some of which have been showing promise.
Short term shareholders could very well see a continued pop. For me, there are longer term risks that I am uncomfortable with and see other opportunities that have better risk/reward profiles IMO.
*As an aside, Kellyanne wants to know why GILD didn't work on treatments for COVID-1 through -18.
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Sell half, then ride the rest. That's what I do in these situations.
I have done similar, Coleman, but this is a small position. Not worth doing that here. I am inclined to hang onto it, at least for a little bit, knowing full well that if bigger tests of the drug for COVID-19 fail, the price could plunge 30% in one sitting.
I am, however, looking at maybe dumping some of my Big Oil holdings, which are up big today, irrationally so IMHO.
I so hate selling anything, though, so I am usually much slower to do anything on that end than on the buying end.
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I find that making the decision to sell (at the right time) far, far more difficult than making the decision to buy.
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I find that making the decision to sell (at the right time) far, far more difficult than making the decision to buy.
Yep. For one thing, unless one is building a cash stash, it involves 2 decisions: the sell and then the buy for the stock to replace it.
I ended up doing nothing today. Put in some "hero" limit sell orders and none hit. I'll use the weekend to think about it more, as I really don't like making knee-jerk investing decisions. I was just surprised that all the oil stocks surged today given that crude continued its freefall. Long-term, I'm not very high on the industry.
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Think Ellenson Family Reunion gives some good advice above. This dip is a great thing for you being 30 years out. If you are a buy and hold guy, ideas I'd present would be: AMRN, ETSY, ULTA, RVLV, SQ, BA, SHOP, CTAS.
Higher volatility biotechs I like (a sector invest 50% of my portfolio): AXSM, FLGT, GNPX, NVTA, SAVA, AQST, IGMS.
Bloom Energy (BE) is also an interesting company with a bright future IMO.
Invest at your own risk above. Just sharing some ideas.
The above aggregate are + 45% since March 20. My next play is to short LULU. I continue to accumulate AMRN shares weekly. AMRN revs in Q1 2020 were $161M compared to $73M in Q1 2019.
I bought MRNA last week at $37.25 - they well may be the first to market with vaccine for COVID. Tough entry point now at $53 up so much in one week..but if open to some risk..I'd still buy here.
Anybody have any other good ideas?
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The above aggregate are + 45% since March 20. My next play is to short LULU. I continue to accumulate AMRN shares weekly. AMRN revs in Q1 2020 were $161M compared to $73M in Q1 2019.
I bought MRNA last week at $37.25 - they well may be the first to market with vaccine for COVID. Tough entry point now at $53 up so much in one week..but if open to some risk..I'd still buy here.
Anybody have any other good ideas?
Sold MRNA last week. Happy to have made some nice change but kicking myself now.
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Sold MRNA last week. Happy to have made some nice change but kicking myself now.
So hard to know when to sell, but it's never a loss, taking a win/profits. I'm kicking myself I didn't buy SHOP back on March 20 at $330. I'd bought shop in January 2019 for $150, and sold out of it all some at $200 in early Feb and the rest at $225 by end of April 2019.
Thought the 50% gain in 3 months was too good to pass up. It ended up climbing to $540 by Feb 19th. Felt this recent pullback to $330 was a good opportunity, but couldn't pull trigger on such a high share price thinking % return probabilities as opposed to some other options. SHOP now at $638.
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I know it’s not literal because it’s speculative, but oil now at $2.17 (!!!!) a barrel.
I say this knowing it’s speculative, but in my wildest dreams I never imagined oil being literally worthless.
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I know it’s not literal because it’s speculative, but oil now at $2.17 (!!!!) a barrel.
I say this knowing it’s speculative, but in my wildest dreams I never imagined oil being literally worthless.
Crazy things happen when 2 major producers team up to attempt to cripple and/or bankrupt the oil producing industry in the country that produces the most oil in the world.
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Crazy things happen when 2 major producers team up to attempt to cripple and/or bankrupt the oil producing industry in the country that produces the most oil in the world.
No argument here. Now at negative $7 a barrel. A producer will literally pay “you” to take oil off their hands.
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No argument here. Now at negative $7 a barrel. A producer will literally pay “you” to take oil off their hands.
"Please store this worthless item for me."
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Surprised this isn't hitting the stock market a bit harder.
Similarly, surprised that oil stocks aren't being hit harder today. All priced in?
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I know it’s not literal because it’s speculative, but oil now at $2.17 (!!!!) a barrel.
I say this knowing it’s speculative, but in my wildest dreams I never imagined oil being literally worthless.
WTI is going negative. You will get paid to take oil right now.
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oils-may-contract-has-just-gone-negative-plunging-154-and-trading-at-negative-10-a-barrel-2020-04-20?mod=bnbh_mwarticle
-$37.63 a barrel. Can't wait to gas up and the guy has to pay me.
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Nows the time to buy in bulk and stash those barrels in your basement for a rainy day
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To be clear, the May contract price at negative $40 is people bailing left and right. The "true" price right now is the June contract, which is in the low $20's.
Still, to see any WTI contract at these ranges is unprecedented. Thinking back 12 years (or whatever) when oil was triple digits, it's unbelievable where we're at. Someone will literally pay you to take oil off their hands. Not just pay you, pay you well!
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The timing of this article--this morning at 8:45am--isn't so good.
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/493614-the-world-can-thank-president-trump-for-the-oil-deal
Insert Rick Wilson's quote re Trump here
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The timing of this article--this morning at 8:45am--isn't so good.
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/493614-the-world-can-thank-president-trump-for-the-oil-deal
Insert Rick Wilson's quote re Trump here
Man that read with the benefit of hindsight was a trip
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Of all the things to bang on Trump for, its not one of them. He did what he needed to do, but all he could do was be an arbiter. US isnt in OPEC and this really went further sideways when KSA and Russia undershot the agreed/hoped for cuts at the OPEC meeting 2 weeks back. He essentially convinced the two sides to cease fire, but there were already catastrophic injuries on both and it wasn't in time to stop the inbound bombers with further ammo.
Its great that the US mitigated much of their need for foreign oil over the decades, but that adds an extra layer of complexity to the geopolitical chess match cause its beyond just a purchaser/consumer interest.
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Of all the things to bang on Trump for, its not one of them. He did what he needed to do, but all he could do was be an arbiter. US isnt in OPEC and this really went further sideways when KSA and Russia undershot the agreed/hoped for cuts at the OPEC meeting 2 weeks back. He essentially convinced the two sides to cease fire, but there were already catastrophic injuries on both and it wasn't in time to stop the inbound bombers with further ammo.
Its great that the US mitigated much of their need for foreign oil over the decades, but that adds an extra layer of complexity to the geopolitical chess match cause its beyond just a purchaser/consumer interest.
My take (highly under educated on the subject matter though) is that KSA and Russia are trying to put US shale production out of business. I think as you described nicely, there is a war going on here, and in this case for KSA/Russia, my enemy is my friend as long as our mutual enemy is US shale output.
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Surprised this isn't hitting the stock market a bit harder.
Similarly, surprised that oil stocks aren't being hit harder today. All priced in?
That wasn’t the actual spot price of oil, it was a futures contract that (I think) expires tomorrow. If you’re long the contract you either have to sell or take delivery. Traders stuck long have no place to put the oil and are forced to sell at any price. This was an unprecedented situation but the oil stocks care about the true price of the commodity, not the price of expiring futures. Hence, XOM, Chevron, etc., down pretty big but not in total panic. If you’re waiting to buy gas for10c a gallon you’re in for a bit of a wait.
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Of all the things to bang on Trump for, its not one of them. He did what he needed to do, but all he could do was be an arbiter. US isnt in OPEC and this really went further sideways when KSA and Russia undershot the agreed/hoped for cuts at the OPEC meeting 2 weeks back. He essentially convinced the two sides to cease fire, but there were already catastrophic injuries on both and it wasn't in time to stop the inbound bombers with further ammo.
Its great that the US mitigated much of their need for foreign oil over the decades, but that adds an extra layer of complexity to the geopolitical chess match cause its beyond just a purchaser/consumer interest.
Nailed it.
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My take (highly under educated on the subject matter though) is that KSA and Russia are trying to put US shale production out of business. I think as you described nicely, there is a war going on here, and in this case for KSA/Russia, my enemy is my friend as long as our mutual enemy is US shale output.
Your take is pretty much on target.
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My take (highly under educated on the subject matter though) is that KSA and Russia are trying to put US shale production out of business. I think as you described nicely, there is a war going on here, and in this case for KSA/Russia, my enemy is my friend as long as our mutual enemy is US shale output.
Yeah, but the US shale industry is going to be somewhat shielded with government bailouts that wouldn't have otherwise happened. They are shutting down like the rest of the US and will have access to cheap capital when they start back up as demand starts to ramp back up
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Yeah, but the US shale industry is going to be somewhat shielded with government bailouts that wouldn't have otherwise happened. They are shutting down like the rest of the US and will have access to cheap capital when they start back up as demand starts to ramp back up
Yes, agreed on all these points here.
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Yeah, but the US shale industry is going to be somewhat shielded with government bailouts that wouldn't have otherwise happened. They are shutting down like the rest of the US and will have access to cheap capital when they start back up as demand starts to ramp back up
It won't just be somewhat. It will be total based on the White House position released this morning. The industry as a whole will be bailed out. The socialist bent of the current administration continues afoot. Thus, investment should be strong knowing the USG will prop up those who may not make it on their own.
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It won't just be somewhat. It will be total based on the White House position released this morning. The industry as a whole will be bailed out. The socialist bent of the current administration continues afoot. Thus, investment should be strong knowing the USG will prop up those who may not make it on their own.
It's not really socialist. If the government actually owned the industry at least the people could benefit from this. It's worse. Bailing out the shale oil industry is exactly the problem with these bailouts. Do you think the people who were running this industry last year would have supported higher taxes (personal or corporate) or higher rights fees? Of course not.
But now that they need help? Well of course!!!
Allow them to go bankrupt and sell off their assets. Someone will come in to take their place. The oil isn't going anywhere. And if that doesn't work, have the federal government take partial ownership as an investor so we can also reap the benefits.
But we are going to do what we have become conditioned to do. Privatize the benefits and socialize the risk.
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That wasn’t the actual spot price of oil, it was a futures contract that (I think) expires tomorrow. If you’re long the contract you either have to sell or take delivery. Traders stuck long have no place to put the oil and are forced to sell at any price. This was an unprecedented situation but the oil stocks care about the true price of the commodity, not the price of expiring futures. Hence, XOM, Chevron, etc., down pretty big but not in total panic. If you’re waiting to buy gas for10c a gallon you’re in for a bit of a wait.
I understand. But this occurring tells what the sentiment for long-term prospects for the economy is looking like. June contracts are also now declining, because there is no expectation this is resolved any time soon. We continue to pump substantially more oil than there is demand.
That is a big part of why we are seeing significant declines again today. I'm just surprised that there wasn't a bigger hit yesterday.
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Is it hard to stop pumping oil? I don't understand why producers just don't restrict their output.
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Is it hard to stop pumping oil? I don't understand why producers just don't restrict their output.
I believe I read a good article (can't find it right now) that said it was actually more expensive to stop pumping, than it is to pay someone to take the barrels.
There's people much more educated on this than I am that can probably explain the rationale here, but I know I saw that in a couple of articles yesterday.
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I believe I read a good article (can't find it right now) that said it was actually more expensive to stop pumping, than it is to pay someone to take the barrels.
There's people much more educated on this than I am that can probably explain the rationale here, but I know I saw that in a couple of articles yesterday.
There is also the debt/cash flow problem. Yes they are losing money on each barrel. But they are still selling them for $20 a barrel. That generates the cashflow needed to stay open and not go bankrupt.
Essentially hemorrhaging money slower is better.
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Running out of storage space
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It's not really socialist. If the government actually owned the industry at least the people could benefit from this. It's worse. Bailing out the shale oil industry is exactly the problem with these bailouts. Do you think the people who were running this industry last year would have supported higher taxes (personal or corporate) or higher rights fees? Of course not.
But now that they need help? Well of course!!!
Allow them to go bankrupt and sell off their assets. Someone will come in to take their place. The oil isn't going anywhere. And if that doesn't work, have the federal government take partial ownership as an investor so we can also reap the benefits.
But we are going to do what we have become conditioned to do. Privatize the benefits and socialize the risk.
If oil is this cheap wouldn't it be better for the government to buy low and then put in the Strategic Oil Reserve?
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That has already been announced. Again, there is a limited amount of available storage space.
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And the strategic oil reserve is kind of a relic anyway. We produce plenty of oil domestically now.
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It's not really socialist. If the government actually owned the industry at least the people could benefit from this. It's worse. Bailing out the shale oil industry is exactly the problem with these bailouts. Do you think the people who were running this industry last year would have supported higher taxes (personal or corporate) or higher rights fees? Of course not.
But now that they need help? Well of course!!!
Allow them to go bankrupt and sell off their assets. Someone will come in to take their place. The oil isn't going anywhere. And if that doesn't work, have the federal government take partial ownership as an investor so we can also reap the benefits.
But we are going to do what we have become conditioned to do. Privatize the benefits and socialize the risk.
Bingo.
This country is currently centered around corporate socialism. And it's a freaking scam
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oils-may-contract-has-just-gone-negative-plunging-154-and-trading-at-negative-10-a-barrel-2020-04-20?mod=bnbh_mwarticle
-$37.63 a barrel. Can't wait to gas up and the guy has to pay me.
I just filled up, and they still made me pay them. WTF?
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I believe I read a good article (can't find it right now) that said it was actually more expensive to stop pumping, than it is to pay someone to take the barrels.
There's people much more educated on this than I am that can probably explain the rationale here, but I know I saw that in a couple of articles yesterday.
Once a well is tapped it needs be pumped. What companies will do is stop exploring for new wells. It's virtually impossible to turn a well off. Just look at what happens with oil fires - they can't turn off the fuel. Instead, it needs to be physically capped and thus essentially killing anything that could come from it.
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Market was doing pretty well today until news came out that Gilead's remdesivir failed in its first randomized clinical trial as a COVID-19 cure. After that ... all the steam came out of the market. GILD, which had a strong morning, ended up down 4%.
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Here is part of the response from Gilead, you can find it on their website. I just took what I thought were the most relevant points.
"The study was terminated early due to low enrollment and, as a result, it was underpowered to enable statistically meaningful conclusions. As such, the study results are inconclusive, though trends in the data suggest a potential benefit for remdesivir, particularly among patients treated early in disease."
"We expect to share results at the end of this month from our open-label study of remdesivir in patients with severe COVID-19 disease. This randomized clinical trial is fully enrolled and will compare treatment outcomes and safety following 5 or 10 days of remdesivir treatment. We expect data at the end of May from our open-label study in patients with moderate disease that is studying 5 or 10 days of remdesivir versus standard of care. We also anticipate data at the end of May from NIAID’s double-blind, placebo-controlled study of remdesivir in patients across a range of disease severity."
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Third place I've posted this. MESO - Great results on stem cell prelim trial with COVID patients on ventilators.
https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/mesoblast-treatment-achieves--remarkable--results-for-critical-covid-19-patients.html
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Bingo.
This country is currently centered around corporate socialism. And it's a freaking scam
A lot of people think in black and white terms.
Democratic socialism is the answer. It is what made America great.
Big government, big unions and big business, simple.
Now we have small business, small unions and bankrupt government and BIG PROBLEMS, thanks guys.
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A lot of people think in black and white terms.
Democratic socialism is the answer. It is what made America great.
Big government, big unions and big business, simple.
Now we have small business, small unions and bankrupt government and BIG PROBLEMS, thanks guys.
Yes! This has worked out SO well Illinois and California. Thinking what "worked" in the 1900s would work in the 2000s is questionable at best. Times have changed some. Your cause/effect premise is flawed.
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Yes! This has worked out SO well Illinois and California. Thinking what "worked" in the 1900s would work in the 2000s is questionable at best. Times have changed some. Your cause/effect premise is flawed.
Illinois I will give you, it has been badly managed ever since I can remember. But California? Amazing growth and economically sound/surplus budget since the Dems overcame the supermajority requirement. Definitely still an issue with economic inequality to be worked on.
GDP is obviously only one measure, but California has been killing it.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/306775/california-gdp-growth/
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Illinois I will give you, it has been badly managed ever since I can remember. But California? Amazing growth and economically sound/surplus budget since the Dems overcame the supermajority requirement. Definitely still an issue with economic inequality to be worked on.
GDP is obviously only one measure, but California has been killing it.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/306775/california-gdp-growth/
I'm not surprised to see GDP growth in CA, given its mecca of Fortune 500 companies, and the startup tech scene of Silicon Valley. Given the high state income tax rates as well (9.3% for a single person earning over 57k), that certainly helps balance budget. Yet California, despite its great recreational resources, is facing a population migration, and continues to have less than stellar bond ratings.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/databases/article236910698.html
https://www.tax-brackets.org/californiataxtable
https://www.treasurer.ca.gov/ratings/current.asp
It would seem as though a state with SO much GDP growth, wealth, property values, taxes, etc., should be crushing it, and not be facing population migration and poor bond ratings. The pension fund in CA is also vastly underfunded, much like in IL.
https://www.ppic.org/publication/public-pensions-in-california/
I don't know. I'm a fiscal conservative, and generally socially liberal. I just struggle to understand how liberal fiscal policy works. I'm certainly open to listening/learning.
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Yes! This has worked out SO well Illinois and California. Thinking what "worked" in the 1900s would work in the 2000s is questionable at best. Times have changed some. Your cause/effect premise is flawed.
O.K., let's have a 3rd world country. Most of our country lives in 3rd world status anyway.
Small government, no unions, and small business.
I'm for balkinizing America.
I'd much rather pay my quartly taxes to N.Y. or N.J. than to our federal government.
30 % of our GDP is California. It would make a great country.
If my thinking has a flawed premise then please explain how our system gives so much political influence to states where nobody lives? And BTW don't pay spit in taxes. I know how it happened and furthermore, when it happeded. That was in the 19th century.
And on the subject of the stock market, let's see Wall Street dig themselves out of this one. Ha, good luck.
Some of you guys want to talk about government pensions. Game on. It's not the benefits , it's the acuarial value of the assets. It's not just the underfunding, it's the magic of Wall Street, again.
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O.K., let's have a 3rd world country. Most of our country lives in 3rd world status anyway.
Small government, no unions, and small business.
I'm for balkinizing America.
I'd much rather pay my quartly taxes to N.Y. or N.J. than to our federal government.
30 % of our GDP is California. It would make a great country.
If my thinking has a flawed premise then please explain how our system gives so much political influence to states where nobody lives? And BTW don't pay spit in taxes. I know how it happened and furthermore, when it happeded. That was in the 19th century.
And on the subject of the stock market, let's see Wall Street dig themselves out of this one. Ha, good luck.
Some of you guys want to talk about government pensions. Game on. It's not the benefits , it's the acuarial value of the assets. It's not just the underfunding, it's the magic of Wall Street, again.
I love day drinking too.
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I love day drinking too.
I gave that up 43 years 2 days ago.
I did enjoy drinking at the Vogue Cocktail Bar, across W. Wisconsin from the library.
Enjoyed day time drinking so much I even worked there as a bartender.
It took me 5 1/2 years to graduate, but it was fun.
I got so drunk I even joined the Marines in 1966, but that's another story. Vietnam and all that patriotic bullcrap.
Now my golf clothes are made in Vietnam, so much for the domino theory and evil communism and triumphant capitalism.
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Such a fortunate coincidence ...
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242556081.html?
Sen. Richard Burr was not the only member of his family to sell off a significant portion of his stock holdings in February, ahead of the market crash spurred by coronavirus fears. On the same day Burr sold, his brother-in-law also dumped tens of thousands of dollars worth of shares.
The market fell by more than 30% in the subsequent month.
Burr’s brother-in-law, Gerald Fauth, who has a post on the National Mediation Board, sold between $97,000 and $280,000 worth of shares in six companies — including several that have been hit particularly hard in the market swoon and economic downturn.
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Such a fortunate coincidence ...
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242556081.html?
Sen. Richard Burr was not the only member of his family to sell off a significant portion of his stock holdings in February, ahead of the market crash spurred by coronavirus fears. On the same day Burr sold, his brother-in-law also dumped tens of thousands of dollars worth of shares.
The market fell by more than 30% in the subsequent month.
Burr’s brother-in-law, Gerald Fauth, who has a post on the National Mediation Board, sold between $97,000 and $280,000 worth of shares in six companies — including several that have been hit particularly hard in the market swoon and economic downturn.
Been going on for years. Nothing changes. Chris Dodd, Nancy Pelosi's husband, Shelly Capito, Jim Moran, Bachus, and so many others. Both sides. In 2008 Capito sold Citigroup shares the day before the collapse. Moran sold 90 companies before the collapse. Too many of our leaders on both sides corrupt as hell. Such an unfortunate coincidence.
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Been going on for years. Nothing changes. Chris Dodd, Nancy Pelosi's husband, Shelly Capito, Jim Moran, Bachus, and so many others. Both sides. In 2008 Capito sold Citigroup shares the day before the collapse. Moran sold 90 companies before the collapse. Too many of our leaders on both sides corrupt as hell. Such an unfortunate coincidence.
In this particular "coincidence," Burr was caught on tape telling a small private gathering of rich cronies that all hell was about to break loose, but publicly he was telling his constituents "don't worry, be happy." Meanwhile, he and his family members were dumping their stock.
So while one can dismiss this with the good ol' "both sides do it all the time" justification, this sure looks like more than that. Currently, Burr is under investigation. I doubt he'll be found guilty of any crime, though; so few are, and he has powerful friends in high places.
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Illinois I will give you, it has been badly managed ever since I can remember. But California? Amazing growth and economically sound/surplus budget since the Dems overcame the supermajority requirement. Definitely still an issue with economic inequality to be worked on.
GDP is obviously only one measure, but California has been killing it.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/306775/california-gdp-growth/
Name a decade California didn't kill it in GDP, regardless if it was led by Democrats or Republicans? Been that way since at least Reagan as Governor in the 60's.
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In this particular "coincidence," Burr was caught on tape telling a small private gathering of rich cronies that all hell was about to break loose, but publicly he was telling his constituents "don't worry, be happy." Meanwhile, he and his family members were dumping their stock.
So while one can dismiss this with the good ol' "both sides do it all the time" justification, this sure looks like more than that. Currently, Burr is under investigation. I doubt he'll be found guilty of any crime, though; so few are, and he has powerful friends in high places.
It happens with both sides and will continue to happen with both sides. They cannot help themselves.
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Been going on for years. Nothing changes. Chris Dodd, Nancy Pelosi's husband, Shelly Capito, Jim Moran, Bachus, and so many others. Both sides. In 2008 Capito sold Citigroup shares the day before the collapse. Moran sold 90 companies before the collapse. Too many of our leaders on both sides corrupt as hell. Such an unfortunate coincidence.
Well as long as both sides are doing it, then it's totally fine.
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It happens with both sides and will continue to happen with both sides. They cannot help themselves.
Excellent equivocation.
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In this particular "coincidence," Burr was caught on tape telling a small private gathering of rich cronies that all hell was about to break loose, but publicly he was telling his constituents "don't worry, be happy." Meanwhile, he and his family members were dumping their stock.
So while one can dismiss this with the good ol' "both sides do it all the time" justification, this sure looks like more than that. Currently, Burr is under investigation. I doubt he'll be found guilty of any crime, though; so few are, and he has powerful friends in high places.
Don't feed the chicos
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Take ur politics elsewhere and lets get back to business, who's got some poots or calls recommendations for me???
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Take ur politics elsewhere and lets get back to business, who's got some poots or calls recommendations for me???
Are you kidding me? When I was a young man I lost my shirt in that game. Might as well go to Vegas.
I agree, I think, politics is bull s$$t. They are just rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.
The ship is going down, now we want to discuss insider information. Might as well argue about the post office or the local 6th grade soccer coach. Might as well focus on N95 masks. Lots of trivia to discuss.
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Think Ellenson Family Reunion gives some good advice above. This dip is a great thing for you being 30 years out. If you are a buy and hold guy, ideas I'd present would be: AMRN, ETSY, ULTA, RVLV, SQ, BA, SHOP, CTAS.
Higher volatility biotechs I like (a sector invest 50% of my portfolio): AXSM, FLGT, GNPX, NVTA, SAVA, AQST, IGMS.
Bloom Energy (BE) is also an interesting company with a bright future IMO.
Invest at your own risk above. Just sharing some ideas.
Take ur politics elsewhere and lets get back to business, who's got some poots or calls recommendations for me???
The above recs I made back on March 20 now up an aggregate 73%. Of those, I'd still get in on AMRN, GNPX, SAVA, AQST, NVTA. (All under $17). I wouldn't expect a lot of movement up in near term for any, but over the course of the next year these have strong liklihood of delivering a 2x return aggregate.
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Such a fortunate coincidence ...
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242556081.html?
Sen. Richard Burr was not the only member of his family to sell off a significant portion of his stock holdings in February, ahead of the market crash spurred by coronavirus fears. On the same day Burr sold, his brother-in-law also dumped tens of thousands of dollars worth of shares.
The market fell by more than 30% in the subsequent month.
Burr’s brother-in-law, Gerald Fauth, who has a post on the National Mediation Board, sold between $97,000 and $280,000 worth of shares in six companies — including several that have been hit particularly hard in the market swoon and economic downturn.
Not sure this needs to be politicized. Not sure you or me or anyone else would hold their positions if they felt a high likelihood of market drop of 30%. Of course we all knew about COVID back in December, January, February, and nothing seemingly changed, until it inevitably made its way here as it has to what, 185 countries?
So, he traded on govt briefing info...which of course seems unsettling, but should being a govt official preclude one from making an investment decision? Officers in publicly traded companies can buy or sell shares at any time.
That aside, timing the market is a fools errand, and Burr likely has missed out on all of the bounce back since that time. (Which by the way I think is a complete overreaction - this bounce - I anticipate market will take a big step back in July/August as Q2 earnings and unemployment effects are much more fully known.)
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Not sure this needs to be politicized. Not sure you or me or anyone else would hold their positions if they felt a high likelihood of market drop of 30%. Of course we all knew about COVID back in December, January, February, and nothing seemingly changed, until it inevitably made its way here as it has to what, 185 countries?
So, he traded on govt briefing info...which of course seems unsettling, but should being a govt official preclude one from making an investment decision? Officers in publicly traded companies can buy or sell shares at any time.
That aside, timing the market is a fools errand, and Burr likely has missed out on all of the bounce back since that time. (Which by the way I think is a complete overreaction - this bounce - I anticipate market will take a big step back in July/August as Q2 earnings and unemployment effects are much more fully known.)
He was trading stocks on information not publicly released that he received confidentially.
Take the name and party out of the equation, and this is a textbook case of insider trading for anyone else.
Change the name Burr to Schiff, and the party to Democrat, and I'd be willing to bet you'd change your tune.
How about instead, we just make the rules start applying to everyone?
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He was trading stocks on information not publicly released that he received confidentially.
Take the name and party out of the equation, and this is a textbook case of insider trading for anyone else.
Change the name Burr to Schiff, and the party to Democrat, and I'd be willing to bet you'd change your tune.
How about instead, we just make the rules start applying to everyone?
Yep, and not only was he (and apparently his brother-in-law) trading on information that wasn't publicly available, but he was singing an entirely different tune to the public. He was lying to the "common folk" while helping himself and his rich cronies get rich.
In other words, business as usual.
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He was trading stocks on information not publicly released that he received confidentially.
Take the name and party out of the equation, and this is a textbook case of insider trading for anyone else.
Change the name Burr to Schiff, and the party to Democrat, and I'd be willing to bet you'd change your tune.
How about instead, we just make the rules start applying to everyone?
I don't really care about political party..and as I recall there were a couple of Dems who did the same?
I understand the insider trading analogy, but again, C-level execs buy and sell in and out of their own companies on the regular. One of the most common investment strategies is to follow the trading activity of insiders in a company. This was a golden rule of the great Peter Lynch.
As for "making himself rich," I'd argue he chose not to roll the dice in the market in a time of uncertainty. Just think there are other things one can get triggered on that have more merit than this.
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I don't really care about political party..and as I recall there were a couple of Dems who did the same?
I understand the insider trading analogy, but again, C-level execs buy and sell in and out of their own companies on the regular. One of the most common investment strategies is to follow the trading activity of insiders in a company. This was a golden rule of the great Peter Lynch.
As for "making himself rich," I'd argue he chose not to roll the dice in the market in a time of uncertainty. Just think there are other things one can get triggered on that have more merit than this.
(https://media2.giphy.com/media/6JB4v4xPTAQFi/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e473611bc8435fe6d286d422d65ba0245836ed7ce4a&rid=giphy.gif)
It isn't an analogy. He participated in insider trading.
PERIOD.
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Not sure this needs to be politicized. Not sure you or me or anyone else would hold their positions if they felt a high likelihood of market drop of 30%. Of course we all knew about COVID back in December, January, February, and nothing seemingly changed, until it inevitably made its way here as it has to what, 185 countries?
So, he traded on govt briefing info...which of course seems unsettling, but should being a govt official preclude one from making an investment decision? Officers in publicly traded companies can buy or sell shares at any time.
That aside, timing the market is a fools errand, and Burr likely has missed out on all of the bounce back since that time. (Which by the way I think is a complete overreaction - this bounce - I anticipate market will take a big step back in July/August as Q2 earnings and unemployment effects are much more fully known.)
It's okay for there to be a guy who's done something wrong with the same letter next to his name as you might put next to yours. The sun will come up tomorrow. Trust me. It's liberating.
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It's okay for there to be a guy who's done something wrong with the same letter next to his name as you might put next to yours. The sun will come up tomorrow. Trust me. It's liberating.
Actually I don’t get triggered very easily about politics - only the coaching of Wojo. And Derrick Wilson sent out for 32+ minutes per game leading to a massive underperformance in Buzz’s last year and a 4-14 record in Year 1 Wojo.
So. I’m quite liberated as is. Anybody who gets deep into politics as asking to be frustrated AF.
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Actually I don’t get triggered very easily about politics - only the coaching of Wojo. And Derrick Wilson sent out for 32+ minutes per game leading to a massive underperformance in Buzz’s last year and a 4-14 record in Year 1 Wojo.
So. I’m quite liberated as is. Anybody who gets deep into politics as asking to be frustrated AF.
And yet you pretend Richard Burr didn't do something wrong here, dismissing it as "they all do it."
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It's okay for there to be a guy who's done something wrong with the same letter next to his name as you might put next to yours. The sun will come up tomorrow. Trust me. It's liberating.
It really is. It's a good lesson to learn, whether you're talking about sports or politics.
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Ok seriously guys. What companies have earnings you're trying to get in on during the pre earning run up? CSCO? HD? LOGI?
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Ok seriously guys. What companies have earnings you're trying to get in on during the pre earning run up? CSCO? HD? LOGI?
It’s already run a lot, but DKNG. They are already position to be the gorilla in the room as more and more states adopt legal sports betting. Earnings on Friday
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Just bought some RTX -- the merger between Raytheon and United Technologies. Times will be rough for the aerospace part of the new larger company for a little while, but the defense side of it shouldn't be affected too badly.
It's a small position. We'll see how things go.
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carnival-they have cash and a very loyal base. bought in at 12. marathon petroleum corp at $30 cameco is making a move
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carnival-they have cash and a very loyal base. bought in at 12. marathon petroleum corp at $30 cameco is making a move
CCL is a ballsy buy, rocket. I hope it does great for you.
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CCL is a ballsy buy, rocket. I hope it does great for you.
^ better chance they crater out. They're bleeding money.
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^ better chance they crater out. They're bleeding money.
I'm no investment adviser, and I haven't followed CCL at all, so I'll take your word for it.
But I did just see this on Seeking Alpha:
In the 3 days following Carnival Cruise's (NYSE:CCL) announcement that it will offer some cruises in August, bookings surged 600% compared to the previous 3 days, and were 200% higher than the same time period in 2019, TMZ reports, citing a rep with Cruise Planners, an American Express travel franchise.
And they just got an analyst upgrade:
Carnival (NYSE:CCL) is on watch after HSBC Bank upgrades the cruise line operator to a Buy rating from Hold. HSBC notes positive reports keep coming in on 2021 cruise line booking trends and sees Carnival landing the covenant waivers from lenders that it needs for more breathing room. HSBC assigns a price target of $15.90 to CCL.
Again, even if I were inclined to agree that CCL will experience way more short-term pain before getting some long-term relief, I still believe what I said to rocket was true - buying CCL was a ballsy move.
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I'm no investment adviser, and I haven't followed CCL at all, so I'll take your word for it.
But I did just see this on Seeking Alpha:
In the 3 days following Carnival Cruise's (NYSE:CCL) announcement that it will offer some cruises in August, bookings surged 600% compared to the previous 3 days, and were 200% higher than the same time period in 2019, TMZ reports, citing a rep with Cruise Planners, an American Express travel franchise.
And they just got an analyst upgrade:
Carnival (NYSE:CCL) is on watch after HSBC Bank upgrades the cruise line operator to a Buy rating from Hold. HSBC notes positive reports keep coming in on 2021 cruise line booking trends and sees Carnival landing the covenant waivers from lenders that it needs for more breathing room. HSBC assigns a price target of $15.90 to CCL.
Again, even if I were inclined to agree that CCL will experience way more short-term pain before getting some long-term relief, I still believe what I said to rocket was true - buying CCL was a ballsy move.
My opinions are trash btw. ;D
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CCL is a ballsy buy, rocket. I hope it does great for you.
just saw this-been practicing "social distancing" from scoop :D
yes it is, but at $12, with their cash on hand and 600% increase in bookings over past few days and 200% over same time span 2019, they are going to be ok. this was a $50 stock last year. i'll take $35-40 thank you
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It’s already run a lot, but DKNG. They are already position to be the gorilla in the room as more and more states adopt legal sports betting. Earnings on Friday
In the spirit of healthy discourse and getting back to investing banter - I don't get the recent runup and I don't see how their earnings are going to be anything but atrocious... aside from my degen buddy wagering on eSports, who's betting on anything right now? Tough for me to buy into.
Kicking myself for not jumping on ETSY at 40... I could make a case to buy at $80...
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In the spirit of healthy discourse and getting back to investing banter - I don't get the recent runup and I don't see how their earnings are going to be anything but atrocious... aside from my degen buddy wagering on eSports, who's betting on anything right now? Tough for me to buy into.
The market is forward looking. They are positioned to be the leader in mobile betting, as well as casino partnerships. They will have the market cornered for online gambling and daily fantasy sports. Everyone knows this quarter will be disappointing, but the guidance looking forward will be the opposite. Disney took a stake which opens them up to endless ESPN/sports integrations and partnerships. I believe I saw Soros took a big position today as well.
I think you underestimate the sea change of sports betting in the US and the digital component/integrations.
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It’s already run a lot, but DKNG. They are already position to be the gorilla in the room as more and more states adopt legal sports betting. Earnings on Friday
i think if you time this one right, you could do quite well. hey, how is vegas doing lately?? but ya gotta know when to hold'em
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There is no market, there are no "investments", it is a fresh start.
It is the mother of all paradigm shifts.
The socalled market is over rated as a forward looking crystal ball.
It is all marketing: diversification, reallocation, dollar cost averaging, hedging, arbitrage, real estate investment trusts, tax shelters, are all marketing mumbo jumbo dales pitches.
There are only two ways to make money, work for it or do it the old fashion way, inherit it.
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Ok Boomer
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Has this week started the next leg down for the market?
I read that earnings are off something like a combined 14% for all the companies that have reported this quarter, and are forecast to be down at least twice that next quarter.
After hitting bottom March 23, the market went up, up, up - actually became overvalued IMHO - based on false hopes and Fed finagling. But eventually, any surge has to be supported by actual data and fundamentals.
Mr. Market could take us on a pretty wild ride these next many months.
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https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-05-13/fbi-serves-warrant-on-senator-stock-investigation
I was informed that both sides do it so it's not wrong. Was I misinformed?
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GE under $6 per share. Yikes.
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https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-05-13/fbi-serves-warrant-on-senator-stock-investigation
I was informed that both sides do it so it's not wrong. Was I misinformed?
Must be a case of FBI overreach, like ChicosDad was going on about in one of his 20 posts from yesterday.
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Ok Boomer
Thanks for the complement.
My father was a combat infantry officer in the battle of the bulge.
I lived thru the Vietnam war in the Marine Corps.
I smelled the Twin Towers.
I navigated the 2007-08 global financial crash.
I survived the pandemic in Bergamo, Italy.
And now I will survive the arrival of socialism.
Enjoy
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Thanks for the complement.
My father was a combat infantry officer in the battle of the bulge.
I lived thru the Vietnam war in the Marine Corps.
I smelled the Twin Towers.
I navigated the 2007-08 global financial crash.
I survived the pandemic in Bergamo, Italy.
And now I will survive the arrival of socialism.
Enjoy
*Still cannot figure out PowerPoint
I jest before everybody gets up in arms about it
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*Still cannot figure out PowerPoint
I jest before everybody gets up in arms about it
PowerPoint, been there done that. Zoom, did that 20 years ago. I was the first on my block to have a DOD Blackberry. I don't even have a cell phone now. Great being retired.
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And yet you pretend Richard Burr didn't do something wrong here, dismissing it as "they all do it."
Good to see him stepping down as chairman today. Would not be heartbroken to see him resign from the Senate and if he is found to have done something illegal, put him on trial.
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Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE), which claims to have a "cure" for COVID-19, is up 65% in the first 10 minutes of trading, leaping from around $2/share to well over $4.
I guess my 100,000 shares will do pretty well! (In my dreams.)
Still well below its 52-week high of $5.09 though.
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PowerPoint, been there done that. Zoom, did that 20 years ago. I was the first on my block to have a DOD Blackberry. I don't even have a cell phone now. Great being retired.
I'm losing my edge.
I can hear the footsteps every night on the decks.
But I was there.
I was there in 1974 at the first Suicide practices in a loft in New York City.
I was working on the organ sounds with much patience.
I was there when Captain Beefheart started up his first band.
I told him, "Don't do it that way. You'll never make a dime."
I was there.
I was the first guy playing Daft Punk to the rock kids.
I played it at CBGB's.
Everybody thought I was crazy.
We all know.
I was there.
I was there.
I've never been wrong.
I used to work in the record store.
I had everything before anyone.
I was there in the Paradise Garage DJ booth with Larry Levan.
I was there in Jamaica during the great sound clashes.
I woke up naked on the beach in Ibiza in 1988.
But I'm losing my edge to better-looking people with better ideas and more talent.
And they're actually really, really nice.
I'm losing my edge.
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I'm losing my edge.
I can hear the footsteps every night on the decks.
But I was there.
I was there in 1974 at the first Suicide practices in a loft in New York City.
I was working on the organ sounds with much patience.
I was there when Captain Beefheart started up his first band.
I told him, "Don't do it that way. You'll never make a dime."
I was there.
I was the first guy playing Daft Punk to the rock kids.
I played it at CBGB's.
Everybody thought I was crazy.
We all know.
I was there.
I was there.
I've never been wrong.
I used to work in the record store.
I had everything before anyone.
I was there in the Paradise Garage DJ booth with Larry Levan.
I was there in Jamaica during the great sound clashes.
I woke up naked on the beach in Ibiza in 1988.
But I'm losing my edge to better-looking people with better ideas and more talent.
And they're actually really, really nice.
I'm losing my edge.
And you're getting older
I promise you this; you're getting older
And there's improvements unless
You're such a winner
That the future's a nightmare
And there's nothing I can do
Nothing anyone can do about this
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Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE), which claims to have a "cure" for COVID-19, is up 65% in the first 10 minutes of trading, leaping from around $2/share to well over $4.
I guess my 100,000 shares will do pretty well! (In my dreams.)
Still well below its 52-week high of $5.09 though.
Hit a new high today and is up 88% as I write this. But overall Mr. Market - which for weeks had jumped at every announcement of a possible cure or vaccine or therapy - is actually down.
Might be the whole "boy who cried wolf" thing finally hitting.
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Hit a new high today and is up 88% as I write this. But overall Mr. Market - which for weeks had jumped at every announcement of a possible cure or vaccine or therapy - is actually down.
Might be the whole "boy who cried wolf" thing finally hitting.
Combo of 2 things.
1) Market is a bit tired of whipsaw cure or vaccine bounces until there is published data, IMO.
2) A bigger issue is the Huawei decision and China's retalitory action of adding companies like AAPL, BA, and others to their "Unreliable Entity List", aka blacklist for not being CCP lapdogs. This is an aggressive escalation from both sides that could get ugly.
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Combo of 2 things.
1) Market is a bit tired of whipsaw cure or vaccine bounces until there is published data, IMO.
2) A bigger issue is the Huawei decision and China's retalitory action of adding companies like AAPL, BA, and others to their "Unreliable Entity List", aka blacklist for not being CCP lapdogs. This is an aggressive escalation from both sides that could get ugly.
Trade War 2: Electric Boogaloo
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Combo of 2 things.
1) Market is a bit tired of whipsaw cure or vaccine bounces until there is published data, IMO.
2) A bigger issue is the Huawei decision and China's retalitory action of adding companies like AAPL, BA, and others to their "Unreliable Entity List", aka blacklist for not being CCP lapdogs. This is an aggressive escalation from both sides that could get ugly.
Agree on both of those.
Xi has a major advantage on Trump, because he doesn't need to get re-elected. He can delay and hem and haw on carrying out any "agreement." This is a desperate issue for Trump, who made it a central part of his campaign.
So far, his wrangling with China has put American farmers in such a world of hurt that he had to create an entirely new welfare program for them ... and then small farmers ended up getting very little of the money. And for a lot of other industries, the effects of the ongoing trade war have been amplified by the pandemic.
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Trade War 2: Electric Boogaloo
What?? A lot of people say, trade wars are easy to win.
Or so I've heard.
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So far, his wrangling with China has put American farmers in such a world of hurt that he had to create an entirely new welfare program for them ... and then small farmers ended up getting very little of the money. And for a lot of other industries, the effects of the ongoing trade war have been amplified by the pandemic.
And he ravaged the US steel industry as well as depressing US manufacturing.
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I'm losing my edge.
I can hear the footsteps every night on the decks.
But I was there.
I was there in 1974 at the first Suicide practices in a loft in New York City.
I was working on the organ sounds with much patience.
I was there when Captain Beefheart started up his first band.
I told him, "Don't do it that way. You'll never make a dime."
I was there.
I was the first guy playing Daft Punk to the rock kids.
I played it at CBGB's.
Everybody thought I was crazy.
We all know.
I was there.
I was there.
I've never been wrong.
I used to work in the record store.
I had everything before anyone.
I was there in the Paradise Garage DJ booth with Larry Levan.
I was there in Jamaica during the great sound clashes.
I woke up naked on the beach in Ibiza in 1988.
But I'm losing my edge to better-looking people with better ideas and more talent.
And they're actually really, really nice.
I'm losing my edge.
I'm timing out on a lot of things, it's O.K., it is what it is.
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Hit a new high today and is up 88% as I write this. But overall Mr. Market - which for weeks had jumped at every announcement of a possible cure or vaccine or therapy - is actually down.
Might be the whole "boy who cried wolf" thing finally hitting.
Looks like it's making a new high today along with other vaccine stocks, Moderna is up huge again today too. I've been lucky with MRNA, I bought it long before this virus issue, sold it when it ran up to 30, mentioned I would buy it back if it fell back into the mid 20s, thankfully it did and I took another small position(100 shares), but I'll be selling half of those shares today when the market opens. It's hard to justify a 30 plus billion dollar valuation for a company that still has zero revenue and is losing money every quarter. I'm hopeful that this vaccine will work, but the good results right now are only partial results from their ongoing phase 1 trial, with results from only 8 patients, there is still more data to come. They are hoping for phase 3 trials to start in July, so we'll have to see how the rest of the story plays out with the mRNA-1273 vaccine trials.
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Looks like it's making a new high today along with other vaccine stocks, Moderna is up huge again today too. I've been lucky with MRNA, I bought it long before this virus issue, sold it when it ran up to 30, mentioned I would buy it back if it fell back into the mid 20s, thankfully it did and I took another small position(100 shares), but I'll be selling half of those shares today when the market opens. It's hard to justify a 30 plus billion dollar valuation for a company that still has zero revenue and is losing money every quarter. I'm hopeful that this vaccine will work, but the good results right now are only partial results from their ongoing phase 1 trial, with results from only 8 patients, there is still more data to come. They are hoping for phase 3 trials to start in July, so we'll have to see how the rest of the story plays out with the mRNA-1273 vaccine trials.
These are fun times to be a trader, I bet. I don't have the stomach for it, but I root for guys like you who have done their homework and are reaping the spoils. Continued good fortune!
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And he ravaged the US steel industry as well as depressing US manufacturing.
Our industrial base has largely disappeared since the emphasis on small business, and deregulation 40+ years ago.
The multinationals needed to make quartely profit to satisy Wall Street.
United States Steel found they could make more money in finance than in making steel. GE with Jack Welsch made similar decisions. Now we have X, no longer United States Steel.
These realities are the result of long term strategic decisions.
The service based economy was a successful sell, but has had unintended consequences.
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The industrial base began disappearing more than 40 years ago. With low barriers to trade, low to medium skilled industrial work is best done elsewhere. It's hard to fight economics. We do services and higher-skilled industry better. And the low trade barriers help everyone.
The problem is that those services need more education and training. And we need to do better making that available.
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The industrial base began disappearing more than 40 years ago. With low barriers to trade, low to medium skilled industrial work is best done elsewhere. It's hard to fight economics. We do services and higher-skilled industry better. And the low trade barriers help everyone.
The problem is that those services need more education and training. And we need to do better making that available.
That's the party line.
The reality is that we have millions of people without the skills, education, mentors, motivation, and "we" do little to provide the education and training. We continue to reduce taxes and talk the talk. Some people can't survive in the modern "economics".
Furthermore, it is unreasonable to argue that automation creates as many opportunites as it eliminates.
So here we are with millions of unqualified people living in the under class.
Now for the diatribe.
I worked my way through Marquette. One job I had was a night shift spray painter at Allis Chalmers. It was the West Allis works, it had a railroad, a hospital, it is now a shopping mall. It was like the Lackawanna Works in Buffalo.
Many African Americans came to Milwaukee to work in the industrial base. They mostly worked in the dirty, hard, dangerous jobs. They worked with forging hammers, rolling mills, casting foundries, spray painting, soldering, welding, etc..
Then we exported the jobs. The workers had families, who had failies, who have families.
And here we are with the party line.
With all do respect, I don't agree with the party line.
I've been everywhere man, Richmond, Indianapolis, Johnstown, Birmingham, Erie, Buffalo, Wichita, Tullahoma, Osawatomi, Kansas City, Bridgeport, Chicago, Gary, New Orleans, and so forth.
What have I seen? Millions and millions and millions of the underclass. Nobody gives a s$$t. It is what it is. We do our finance thing, and the people be damed. We say "it's economics", but is it? It is bad, heartless, greedy economics.
I have no worry. The end game of ruthless capitalism will be socialism, probably a mixed economy. I don't have to do anything, it will happen because it is the inevitable future. Enjoy the Nantucket slay ride.
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That's the party line.
The reality is that we have millions of people without the skills, education, mentors, motivation, and "we" do little to provide the education and training. We continue to reduce taxes and talk the talk. Some people can't survive in the modern "economics".
I guess you skipped the part where I said this: "The problem is that those services need more education and training. And we need to do better making that available."
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These are fun times to be a trader, I bet. I don't have the stomach for it, but I root for guys like you who have done their homework and are reaping the spoils. Continued good fortune!
Don't consider myself to be a trader, more of a long-term investor, but when a stock is up so much in such a short period of time, it's been my experience that these huge run-ups, and spike upwards in share price, almost always present an opportunity to buy back at a lower price. Just pull up a chart on MRNA, it's gone from a low of just under 18 to over 80 in a mater of a few months, and the bulk of those gains have happened in the last few weeks. When a stock is up over 300% in a month, in my book it makes sense to take some profits.
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Looks like it's making a new high today along with other vaccine stocks, Moderna is up huge again today too. I've been lucky with MRNA, I bought it long before this virus issue, sold it when it ran up to 30, mentioned I would buy it back if it fell back into the mid 20s, thankfully it did and I took another small position(100 shares), but I'll be selling half of those shares today when the market opens. It's hard to justify a 30 plus billion dollar valuation for a company that still has zero revenue and is losing money every quarter. I'm hopeful that this vaccine will work, but the good results right now are only partial results from their ongoing phase 1 trial, with results from only 8 patients, there is still more data to come. They are hoping for phase 3 trials to start in July, so we'll have to see how the rest of the story plays out with the mRNA-1273 vaccine trials.
It is remarkable what biotech valuations can soar to. I bought a position in MRNA a month ago at $47. Sold out pre-market today at $86. Also did the same with FLGT which I bought at $10, they got approved for a testing kit today and it soared pre-market to $22, sold half my position as I love their business long term - and they have increasing revenues and market cap of only $368M.
Still believe AMRN is a a great investment at its current $7.62 share price. Revenues doubled 3 years in a row and Q1 2020 up 108% over Q1 2019. Market cap of only 2.94B. $645M Cash on hand. Suspect this is being held down by big pharma as their one drug, Vascepa, will disrupt the whole cardiovascular drug market, and how care is delivered.
Some big catalysts ahead in near term for AMRN, with readouts of their EVAPORATE study - which essential shows clearing of arteries - which can eliminate need for stenting. European approval and partners should be announced in Q3.
I now have 50% of my portfolio invested into AMRN dollar cost averaged down to $8.25.
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I guess you skipped the part where I said this: "The problem is that those services need more education and training. And we need to do better making that available."
I didn't, I understand and spoke like that for years, what I call the party line. Sounds good, it's true, but nothing ever happens. We talk the talk and nothing changes except that the problem grows and grows.
Spoke yesterday with a young man who played Division 3 football while majoring in math. at a first rate univetsity. He has been out a few years but still has the hood mentality. I don't speak that way, but a Wall Street African American friend of mine does.
My young friend is thinking of going back for some more schooling in, you guesed it, finance. He has made a killing in vedio games, oh boy. Then we have the dot com drug companies, the app. guys, the get rich quick "analyst's". Been there done that, for every winner there are a hundred losers. Oh well, go for the gold. Oh, gold, that's another story.
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And he ravaged the US steel industry as well as depressing US manufacturing.
Depressed in what way? Which metric are you using?
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And he ravaged the US steel industry as well as depressing US manufacturing.
The steel industry left for financial reasons. They went into the real estate and leasing businesses with their assets. GE went into leasing and insurance. We have lost many industries over 45 years. Commercial ship building, high speed rail, many aircraft types, clothing, tools, even elevators. We service elevators, we dont manufactuer them.
This is far from a recent phenomenon, and education is not the solution. Politics can't solve the problem.
Not only have we lost jobs, but we have lost capital.
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Don't consider myself to be a trader, more of a long-term investor, but when a stock is up so much in such a short period of time, it's been my experience that these huge run-ups, and spike upwards in share price, almost always present an opportunity to buy back at a lower price. Just pull up a chart on MRNA, it's gone from a low of just under 18 to over 80 in a mater of a few months, and the bulk of those gains have happened in the last few weeks. When a stock is up over 300% in a month, in my book it makes sense to take some profits.
Well done!
I don't use the term "trader" as a dirty word, as some do. But I understand what you are saying. I definitely am a long-term investor but I also have taken some profits in the last year.
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The steel industry left for financial reasons. They went into the real estate and leasing businesses with their assets. GE went into leasing and insurance. We have lost many industries over 45 years. Commercial ship building, high speed rail, many aircraft types, clothing, tools, even elevators. We service elevators, we dont manufactuer them.
This is far from a recent phenomenon, and education is not the solution. Politics can't solve the problem.
Not only have we lost jobs, but we have lost capital.
It became too costly to do manufacturing in this country when others were willing to do it cheaper. Let us not ignore that some of that cost was intentionally driven into the equation with environmental restrictions, workplace guidelines, safety measure and the like. Those were good things to do to protect workers, some will argue environmental requirements have gone too far, but overall good things. That adds large costs that didn’t exist in the 1940’s through the 1970’s. The need for the products did not go away, it the ability to make them here in the US became a financial game it cannot win.
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Agree on both of those.
Xi has a major advantage on Trump, because he doesn't need to get re-elected. He can delay and hem and haw on carrying out any "agreement." This is a desperate issue for Trump, who made it a central part of his campaign.
So far, his wrangling with China has put American farmers in such a world of hurt that he had to create an entirely new welfare program for them ... and then small farmers ended up getting very little of the money. And for a lot of other industries, the effects of the ongoing trade war have been amplified by the pandemic.
Ur 100% dead wrong on every single thing you say about farmers in this post. Wholly ignorant!!
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Ur 100% dead wrong on every single thing you say about farmers in this post. Wholly ignorant!!
(https://media.giphy.com/media/xT1XGPqs2QsfJCD5HW/giphy.gif)
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/xT1XGPqs2QsfJCD5HW/giphy.gif)
Not only that, but he never says anything factual to counter anyone. Just insults. You know...like a 8 year old.
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/xT1XGPqs2QsfJCD5HW/giphy.gif)
Well u made a typical agenda based statement that was 100% wrong. When shown that u changed the subject. Journalist much??
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Not only that, but he never says anything factual to counter anyone. Just insults. You know...like a 8 year old.
The factual part was stating he was 100% wrong.
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Well u made a typical agenda based statement that was 100% wrong. When shown that u changed the subject. Journalist much??
What did you "show" me or anybody else? You stated your opinion, and provided no proof to support your opinion. Only in your world is that "showing" something.
Obsessed much?
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The factual part was stating he was 100% wrong.
So then show why it is and stop acting like a petulant child. Unless... its not acting, is it.
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So then show why it is and stop acting like a petulant child. Unless... its not acting, is it.
No it is pretty clear from his posting history that petulance is his main asset.
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It became too costly to do manufacturing in this country when others were willing to do it cheaper. Let us not ignore that some of that cost was intentionally driven into the equation with environmental restrictions, workplace guidelines, safety measure and the like. Those were good things to do to protect workers, some will argue environmental requirements have gone too far, but overall good things. That adds large costs that didn’t exist in the 1940’s through the 1970’s. The need for the products did not go away, it the ability to make them here in the US became a financial game it cannot win.
If you mean the race to the bottom, we are in total agreement.
Yes, poor workers in the third world are "willing" to do the work for less. They are "willing" to pollute and take risks most of us are unwilling to take.
I'll let it go at that, long live our way of life.
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Stock prices of Moderna (MRNA) and Sorrento (SRNE) come crashing back down as reality sets in about them being "miracle" cures.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3576079-moderna-under-pressure-on-capital-raise-data-questions
Selling (of Moderna) ramped up on the heels of a STAT report criticizing the company for selectively announcing preliminary results from an NIAID-led Phase 1 clinical trial evaluating its COVID-19 vaccine candidate mRNA-1273 in healthy volunteers.
Specifically, the company reported that all 45 subjects (15 per dose level cohort) seroconverted by day 15 after a single dose. At day 43, two weeks after all participants in the 25 µg arm received a second dose (n=15), levels of neutralizing antibodies (the ones you want to see) were comparable to levels in convalescent plasma (derived from recovered patients and used as therapy for sick patients), but only in four subjects. Also, at day 43, the same high levels of binding antibodies were seen in the 100 µg arm but, apparently only in four of 10 subjects.
The company stated that neutralizing antibody data were only available for these eight participants which seems questionable since the post-dose follow-up periods were the same for all 45.
Also, confounding the data is the fact that neutralizing antibody titers in patients who have recovered from COVID-19 infection vary widely, from undetectable to "very high."
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I saw this article yesterday a.m. (written in 2016 before it went public but still)
https://www.thrillist.com/tech/nation/what-does-moderna-therapeutics-do-why-is-it-a-silicon-valley-secret
Seems like a good time to take a print and watch this one from the sidelines
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"Although Luckin Coffee (NASDAQ:LK) has received a delisting notice from Nasdaq, the stock will begin trading again at 7:00 a.m. ET until that process is complete."
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If you mean the race to the bottom, we are in total agreement.
Yes, poor workers in the third world are "willing" to do the work for less. They are "willing" to pollute and take risks most of us are unwilling to take.
I'll let it go at that, long live our way of life.
Unfortunately things we need in life like certain metals, plastics and other materials come at a cost. We decided to no longer make them here in the USA because of strict (some say too strict) environmental concerns and the increased costs of doing business associated with them. Think about the airplane business and the cost of producing aluminum. Is it a race to the bottom to want airplanes and the travel that comes with it? The cost of batteries, short and long term? Immediate benefits to way of life, but disposal challenges.
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Unfortunately things we need in life like certain metals, plastics and other materials come at a cost. We decided to no longer make them here in the USA because of strict (some say too strict) environmental concerns and the increased costs of doing business associated with them. Think about the airplane business and the cost of producing aluminum. Is it a race to the bottom to want airplanes and the travel that comes with it? The cost of batteries, short and long term? Immediate benefits to way of life, but disposal challenges.
You know who else used these exact talking points, don't you? If you're trying to stay ahead of the lie then you need to do better.
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Unfortunately things we need in life like certain metals, plastics and other materials come at a cost. We decided to no longer make them here in the USA because of strict (some say too strict) environmental concerns and the increased costs of doing business associated with them. Think about the airplane business and the cost of producing aluminum. Is it a race to the bottom to want airplanes and the travel that comes with it? The cost of batteries, short and long term? Immediate benefits to way of life, but disposal challenges.
One of my favorite topics. Thanks Dad for bringing up the subject, probably the most important economic subject there is. The airplane business is a big deal.
When I was a senior at M.U., in the mid 60's, at the dawn of the jet age, I worked on a project with UNITED AIRLINES. They were doing strategic planning for putting the people who used interstate busses for travel on planes. America had an excess capacity in airframe manufacturing after WWII. There was an excess capacity in aluminum. The government, for national defense, was supporting research, running wind tunnels, and behind defense conversion. The jet plane development was paid for by the taxpayer. The long range plans included things like airport development and pilot training and it was sold as a national defense need.
I had no vision, I could not think strategically. I could not invision, for example, Dulles International Airport. Newark airport was l little nothing airport, before Peoples Express, before Continental, before UNITED grew.
The planes got larger, the crews became smaller, the seats got smaller, there was an large increase in the number of passengers flying. Cargo was then and still is a very large part of the business. Passengers are a problem, a necessary evil. Cargo is much more profitable.
BTW, Boeing is 50% defense and they have taken over McDonald Douglas, and even Sykorsky and are looking to buy other "compeditors".
So now we have the travel and entertainment "industry". It is a monster, considered necessary for our economic survival.
I wonder what the strategic thinking is today. I flew to Marquette in DC-3's from Detroit and today I fly on 767, 777 from Newark, Liberty to Milano and Frankfort.
I have seen Eastern, TWA, Braniff, Northwest, North Central, Pan Am all disappear. I have seen the arrival of Southwest, Alaska, Frontier, Qatar, Emirates, Saudi, El Al, Cargolux, etc. Our way of life is very tenuous.
When will we ever recover from WWII? How many planes do we need, how many airports, how many international travelers do we need? If you haven't, you should see Milano and Frankfort airports. It makes Denver, Chicago, and DFW tiny by comparison.
Oh if I only knew then what I know now, ha. As Boeing goes so goes America, in my day it was as GM goes so goes America.
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ORD, DIA, DFW, and IAD all dwarf Frankfort which isn’t even a top 10 airport globally by size. Malpensa isn’t even the biggest or busiest airport in Italy. The only true competition the US has in airport size or volume is in Asia
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ORD, DIA, DFW, and IAD all dwarf Frankfort which isn’t even a top 10 airport globally by size. Malpensa isn’t even the biggest or busiest airport in Italy. The only true competition the US has in airport size or volume is in Asia
Let him go. He's on a roll.
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ORD, DIA, DFW, and IAD all dwarf Frankfort which isn’t even a top 10 airport globally by size. Malpensa isn’t even the biggest or busiest airport in Italy. The only true competition the US has in airport size or volume is in Asia
You know better than I. Frankfurt seemed to have a lot of Luftansa on the ground, 747, etc..
Malpensa has very long walks and lots of space for growth that may never happen. Probably not many take offs and landings and many smaller planes, eastern European types.
Fact check on myself. Heathrow does 475,000 take offs and landings per year. How do the airports stack up in freight tonnage? Hong Kong , 4,809,000 tons.
Whats the point of the roll?
The whole Megillah is a very big deal. Investment wise or any other wise.
Let him go. He's on a roll.
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Since the topic of airports has come up and this is an investing thread, I don't think investing in airlines at this particular moment is a good idea, way too much risk and uncertainty there, that includes Boeing too. I'm looking at airport operators. In particular, PAC(Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico) and ASR(Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste). People will eventually travel again and will take vacations to places that are sunny.
PAC owns 12 airports in western Mexico including the ones in Guadalajara and Tijuana, as well as 2 in Jamaica.
ASR owns the airports in Cancun and other tourist destinations in southern Mexico, as well as the airport in San Juan Puerto Rico.
There are extremely high barriers to entry, they are essentially monopolies in their regions. The stocks are still down about 50% for the year. I'm in the early process of doing further dd, but may decide to roll the dice here with one or maybe both of these.
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Since the topic of airports has come up and this is an investing thread, I don't think investing in airlines at this particular moment is a good idea, way too much risk and uncertainty there, that includes Boeing too. I'm looking at airport operators. In particular, PAC(Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico) and ASR(Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste). People will eventually travel again and will take vacations to places that are sunny.
PAC owns 12 airports in western Mexico including the ones in Guadalajara and Tijuana, as well as 2 in Jamaica.
ASR owns the airports in Cancun and other tourist destinations in southern Mexico, as well as the airport in San Juan Puerto Rico.
There are extremely high barriers to entry, they are essentially monopolies in their regions. The stocks are still down about 50% for the year. I'm in the early process of doing further dd, but may decide to roll the dice here with one or maybe both of these.
Sounds like as good a roll of the dice as any. However, it is just another segment of the travel and entertainment industry.
With the excess capacity, how can this industry survive? How can I dd with load factors at 50%, with 80% of the planes grounded? I made up the numbers. Extrapolation from Flightradar24.com . We have very little real data around here on most subjects.
Are we where the wealthy flying private with the poor on the bus?
Boeing survives because half the company is defense. Survival is a far cry from a high flyer. Does survival mean another service company? Overhall and refitting may be the future of Boeing. Ugh.
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Sounds like as good a roll of the dice as any. However, it is just another segment of the travel and entertainment industry.
With the excess capacity, how can this industry survive? How can I dd with load factors at 50%, with 80% of the planes grounded? I made up the numbers. Extrapolation from Flightradar24.com . We have very little real data around here on most subjects.
Are we where the wealthy flying private with the poor on the bus?
Boeing survives because half the company is defense. Survival is a far cry from a high flyer. Does survival mean another service company? Overhall and refitting may be the future of Boeing. Ugh.
Are you implying air travel is going to implode permanently? People are going to stop flying? The "transformational" overreactions in terms of travel, entertainment, and vacation are getting to be ridiculous. For every person that says they wont fly for a LONG time, there are 2-3 that are looking to schedule trips for both work and pleasure. Once a vaccine or treatment comes around, we will return to normal travel levels. We've already doubled the air travel where we were at lows in April, wait till things start to open up.
BA survives because there are 2 major producers of long haul, large passenger volume planes in the world, and the barrier to entry is enormous. Normal US travel volume is 2.5MM people a day. We're currently seeing around 250K in May. I struggle to see how that doesn't return to over 1MM by fall provided there isn't another wave of shutdowns.
There are some very real challenges that air travel faces in the short term, but challenges are just that, short term. Maybe you see a decrease in some domestic business trips in favor of Zoom. Maybe the next travel season or two is a bit lighter for holiday travel. But look at the eagerness of people to return to EVERYTHING about their lives on the other side of this lockdown, travel wont be any different. I honestly feel that the majority of people saying they wont travel or this will make them second guess getting on a plane or staying in a hotel, either are significantly older or in a susceptible group, or more likely not frequent travelers anyways.
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Are you implying air travel is going to implode permanently? People are going to stop flying? The "transformational" overreactions in terms of travel, entertainment, and vacation are getting to be ridiculous. For every person that says they wont fly for a LONG time, there are 2-3 that are looking to schedule trips for both work and pleasure. Once a vaccine or treatment comes around, we will return to normal travel levels. We've already doubled the air travel where we were at lows in April, wait till things start to open up.
BA survives because there are 2 major producers of long haul, large passenger volume planes in the world, and the barrier to entry is enormous. Normal US travel volume is 2.5MM people a day. We're currently seeing around 250K in May. I struggle to see how that doesn't return to over 1MM by fall provided there isn't another wave of shutdowns.
There are some very real challenges that air travel faces in the short term, but challenges are just that, short term. Maybe you see a decrease in some domestic business trips in favor of Zoom. Maybe the next travel season or two is a bit lighter for holiday travel. But look at the eagerness of people to return to EVERYTHING about their lives on the other side of this lockdown, travel wont be any different. I honestly feel that the majority of people saying they wont travel or this will make them second guess getting on a plane or staying in a hotel, either are significantly older or in a susceptible group, or more likely not frequent travelers anyways.
I plan to travel as soon as possible, whenever customers are willing to see suppliers again.
I've found face-to-face to be so much more productive to work out issues and build trust in the long run. Electronic communications only goes so far.
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I plan to travel as soon as possible, whenever customers are willing to see suppliers again.
I've found face-to-face to be so much more productive to work out issues and build trust in the long run. Electronic communications only goes so far.
Could not agree more. I mentioned it weeks back when people were talking about the upside of Zoom and MSFT Teams and how it would be the "death of traditional business travel". Felt like it was written by techno evangelists, academics, or other people who dont have outward facing client relationships. Especially when it comes to foreign customers/suppliers where there is a language difference. I have people I chase for weeks to try and get on a call or the like. And if I do, its minimally effective. But if I travel to where they are, they clear big blocks of time, set up dinner reservations, and give me more information exchange than I would get in 4-6 months of electronic communication. Hell, I have contacts at customers I talk to weekly via call or email, but the nature of the business and our relationship means I might see them once a year at a trade show. Whereas I have people I see 3-4 times a year on visits but talk to 10-20% as much as I talk to the others. Guess which ones I have a bigger relationship with and would do whatever I need in a pinch?
I see business consultants with travel cutbacks as clients see where they can save with Zoom and the like. But not sales/account management/biz development, no chance
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The novelty of Zoom is long gone. Business travel will be back soon.
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The novelty of Zoom is long gone. Business travel will be back soon.
A little Aretha?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi6yGuvKv_E
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Could not agree more. I mentioned it weeks back when people were talking about the upside of Zoom and MSFT Teams and how it would be the "death of traditional business travel". Felt like it was written by techno evangelists, academics, or other people who dont have outward facing client relationships. Especially when it comes to foreign customers/suppliers where there is a language difference. I have people I chase for weeks to try and get on a call or the like. And if I do, its minimally effective. But if I travel to where they are, they clear big blocks of time, set up dinner reservations, and give me more information exchange than I would get in 4-6 months of electronic communication. Hell, I have contacts at customers I talk to weekly via call or email, but the nature of the business and our relationship means I might see them once a year at a trade show. Whereas I have people I see 3-4 times a year on visits but talk to 10-20% as much as I talk to the others. Guess which ones I have a bigger relationship with and would do whatever I need in a pinch?
I see business consultants with travel cutbacks as clients see where they can save with Zoom and the like. But not sales/account management/biz development, no chance
My expensive late fall trip to Malaysia - Singapore - India was great. The market intelligence I gathered enabled me to lock up big business with 3 customers for the next 3 years. Paid itself back. And like you said when I get the email from them "can you help me with this ...... " I drop what I do and address right away.
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You know who else used these exact talking points, don't you? If you're trying to stay ahead of the lie then you need to do better.
The search function here is pretty good. Cannot find what you are referencing. Typed in Aluminum and batteries and only one thing came up that was a day old.
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The search function here is pretty good. Cannot find what you are referencing. Typed in Aluminum and batteries and only one thing came up that was a day old.
Cheeks
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Re: Stealing a Tesla in 30 seconds
« Reply #7 on: August 25, 2019, 01:00:28 PM »
Quote
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on August 25, 2019, 12:46:59 PM
Wow that's amazing, I bet they got really far with it too!
Better not switch to electric cars based solely on this!
/s
But for real, you still climate change denying these days?
I never denied climate changing, it has always changed and always will regardless if man is here or not. It always changes.
Good to see hockey stick Michael Mann lose his court case this week in the Canadian Supreme Court because he refused to turn over his data. So strange that these guys with their models and data refuse to let others review their work....hmmm. But yes, climate is always changing and that will never stop. Jus like it is changing on Mercury, Venus, Mars, Etc, etc....crazy how, that works. That’s why it is so much fun to read history of places on earth that went through ice ages, heat patterns, and then something totally different now only to have it change again in the future.. Life and climate is complex stuff, I’m glad I can emit carbon which plants need to live and not have huge car batteries left to destroy the environment later. My solar panels are working great to save me money, too.
Gee that was hard.
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Are you implying air travel is going to implode permanently? People are going to stop flying? The "transformational" overreactions in terms of travel, entertainment, and vacation are getting to be ridiculous. For every person that says they wont fly for a LONG time, there are 2-3 that are looking to schedule trips for both work and pleasure. Once a vaccine or treatment comes around, we will return to normal travel levels. We've already doubled the air travel where we were at lows in April, wait till things start to open up.
BA survives because there are 2 major producers of long haul, large passenger volume planes in the world, and the barrier to entry is enormous. Normal US travel volume is 2.5MM people a day. We're currently seeing around 250K in May. I struggle to see how that doesn't return to over 1MM by fall provided there isn't another wave of shutdowns.
There are some very real challenges that air travel faces in the short term, but challenges are just that, short term. Maybe you see a decrease in some domestic business trips in favor of Zoom. Maybe the next travel season or two is a bit lighter for holiday travel. But look at the eagerness of people to return to EVERYTHING about their lives on the other side of this lockdown, travel wont be any different. I honestly feel that the majority of people saying they wont travel or this will make them second guess getting on a plane or staying in a hotel, either are significantly older or in a susceptible group, or more likely not frequent travelers anyways.
The industry operates on very slim margins, except cargo.
Business travelers will travel, the old folks not so much.
As an example, the noon flights from Newark to West Palm have typically had a dozen folks in wheel chairs with their care givers.
Another factor will be significant increases in the cost of cleaning the aircraft and other procedures resulting in an increase in ticket price and less demand for travel by air.
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Cheeks
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Re: Stealing a Tesla in 30 seconds
« Reply #7 on: August 25, 2019, 01:00:28 PM »
Quote
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on August 25, 2019, 12:46:59 PM
Wow that's amazing, I bet they got really far with it too!
Better not switch to electric cars based solely on this!
/s
But for real, you still climate change denying these days?
I never denied climate changing, it has always changed and always will regardless if man is here or not. It always changes.
Good to see hockey stick Michael Mann lose his court case this week in the Canadian Supreme Court because he refused to turn over his data. So strange that these guys with their models and data refuse to let others review their work....hmmm. But yes, climate is always changing and that will never stop. Jus like it is changing on Mercury, Venus, Mars, Etc, etc....crazy how, that works. That’s why it is so much fun to read history of places on earth that went through ice ages, heat patterns, and then something totally different now only to have it change again in the future.. Life and climate is complex stuff, I’m glad I can emit carbon which plants need to live and not have huge car batteries left to destroy the environment later. My solar panels are working great to save me money, too.
Gee that was hard.
You said "You know who else used these exact talking points, don't you? If you're trying to stay ahead of the lie then you need to do better." I don't see anything in your copy and paste about Aluminum which would mean exact talking points is incorrect by you, a quality I find keeps coming up with too many of your comments.
And there are concerns about battery disposal. If others are calling that out, they are right.
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The industry operates on very slim margins, except cargo.
Business travelers will travel, the old folks not so much.
As an example, the noon flights from Newark to West Palm have typically had a dozen folks in wheel chairs with their care givers.
Another factor will be significant increases in the cost of cleaning the aircraft and other procedures resulting in an increase in ticket price and less demand for travel by air.
Heading to the airport tomorrow. My flight is about 75% full by looking at the seating chart to select the seat.
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Heading to the airport tomorrow. My flight is about 75% full by looking at the seating chart to select the seat.
Correct, BUT, how many total seats are available between your two cities compared to six months ago?
How has the supply of seats been limited so your flight is marginally profitable? At 75% I'd say your flight is probably at a loss, except for the cargo in the belly. The industry is not sustainable as currently constituted.
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You said "You know who else used these exact talking points, don't you? If you're trying to stay ahead of the lie then you need to do better." I don't see anything in your copy and paste about Aluminum which would mean exact talking points is incorrect by you, a quality I find keeps coming up with too many of your comments.
And there are concerns about battery disposal. If others are calling that out, they are right.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/Fml0fgAxVx1eM/giphy.gif)
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You keep making accusations and falling flat. Reminds of one of the first encounters you had with me when you insisted MU would not even make the NIT. Your reputation proceeds you. Not particularly interested in carrying on with you as your mind is set incorrectly. Have fun with it.
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You keep making accusations and falling flat. Reminds of one of the first encounters you had with me when you insisted MU would not even make the NIT. Your reputation proceeds you. Not particularly interested in carrying on with you as your mind is set incorrectly. Have fun with it.
Getting sadder by the day, I figured you'd have reached rock bottom by now.
And the word is 'precedes'
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You keep making accusations and falling flat. Reminds of one of the first encounters you had with me when you insisted MU would not even make the NIT. Your reputation proceeds you. Not particularly interested in carrying on with you as your mind is set incorrectly. Have fun with it.
Here's a reality for you: Lot's of people don't believe you are who you say you are. Credibility is earned and, for whatever reason, you seem not to have earned much of it.
Everyone could be very, very wrong though. You could be honest, earnest, and every one of the accusations leveled against you could be false.
There's a very simple solution. Dox yourself. I post under my name (or damn near enough of it for anyone with 1% of google to figure me out). Tell everyone who you are and shut everyone up.
I'd imagine at this point you're so tired of all the accusations that such an option would be looking mighty tempting.
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I think the best policy is to not go for the bait.
There are people who enjoy insulting others and winning useless debates.
I try to avoid negativity.
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Here's a reality for you: Lot's of people don't believe you are who you say you are. Credibility is earned and, for whatever reason, you seem not to have earned much of it.
Everyone could be very, very wrong though. You could be honest, earnest, and every one of the accusations leveled against you could be false.
There's a very simple solution. Dox yourself. I post under my name (or damn near enough of it for anyone with 1% of google to figure me out). Tell everyone who you are and shut everyone up.
I'd imagine at this point you're so tired of all the accusations that such an option would be looking mighty tempting.
Not sure the best policy is to dox himself. At the end of the day it doesn't really matter if everyone thinks he's Chico's or not. If he is then it proves Chico's really has some issues and he gains nothing. If he isn't Chico's he doesn't gain any more credibility he just becomes Chico's 2.0 With crazy thoughts and arguments long after he's been shown to be wrong.
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You said "You know who else used these exact talking points, don't you? If you're trying to stay ahead of the lie then you need to do better." I don't see anything in your copy and paste about Aluminum which would mean exact talking points is incorrect by you, a quality I find keeps coming up with too many of your comments.
And there are concerns about battery disposal. If others are calling that out, they are right.
Intellectual dishonesty. Always.
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Added to my BABA today on the fall (-5.5%) after earnings. Revenues up 22% YoY, including 2% sequentially, EPS +7% despite pandemic.
Risks: Chinese stocks threatened with delisting, Hong Kong.
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Added to my BABA today on the fall (-5.5%) after earnings. Revenues up 22% YoY, including 2% sequentially, EPS +7% despite pandemic.
Risks: Chinese stocks threatened with delisting, Hong Kong.
Thanks for bringing it back to investing.
I don’t own any Chinese stocks, but BABA is one I’ve thought about for awhile. Also JD, BIDU, TCEHY and a couple others.
You own any besides BABA?
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The only other one I own is TCOM (formerly CTRP). Despite it being down big, it is still a 7-bagger for me as I've owned it since 2006 and have an average cost of $3.53. I think it was a 16- or 17-bagger at one point. I'm surprised it isn't down more, being a travel company in the time of COVID.
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Gambling is always a good way to escape reality.
My wife uses opera.
Some people use booze.
Calling trading investing is just fooling ourselves.
Spin the wheel, watch the bouncing ball.
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The only other one I own is TCOM (formerly CTRP). Despite it being down big, it is still a 7-bagger for me as I've owned it since 2006 and have an average cost of $3.53. I think it was a 16- or 17-bagger at one point. I'm surprised it isn't down more, being a travel company in the time of COVID.
Never looked into that one. Thanks.
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Never looked into that one. Thanks.
I don't know if I would say it is a buy right now or not. Certainly it seems like travel in China is bound to recover, probably more quickly than it will here. However, even with the COVID driven decline I wouldn't call it cheap, and they are having to invest substantial amounts of cash to keep growing. Due diligence is required for sure.
It is also a case study in the difficulty of knowing when to sell for me. I was sitting on pretty big gains and sold 1/4 of my position at 40. It then promptly rose another 50% or so, so my timing was not extraordinary. Also, I hold shares in both a tax advantaged account and regular brokerage account and did the sale in the tax advantaged account to avoid the cap gains bill. In retrospect, I probably should have taken the cap gains tax hit rather than deferring and paying regular income rates down the road.
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I don't know if I would say it is a buy right now or not. Certainly it seems like travel in China is bound to recover, probably more quickly than it will here. However, even with the COVID driven decline I wouldn't call it cheap, and they are having to invest substantial amounts of cash to keep growing. Due diligence is required for sure.
It is also a case study in the difficulty of knowing when to sell for me. I was sitting on pretty big gains and sold 1/4 of my position at 40. It then promptly rose another 50% or so, so my timing was not extraordinary. Also, I hold shares in both a tax advantaged account and regular brokerage account and did the sale in the tax advantaged account to avoid the cap gains bill. In retrospect, I probably should have taken the cap gains tax hit rather than deferring and paying regular income rates down the road.
I hear ya. I hate selling.
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As a hedge I shorted the 3,100 S&P 500 call for July. I have a 3,200 long as the vertical spread. Have to admit I am getting nervous today that the position will be in a losing position by July.
I must be a negativo/bearish because really unwilling to close the position.
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As a hedge I shorted the 3,100 S&P 500 call for July. I have a 3,200 long as the vertical spread. Have to admit I am getting nervous today that the position will be in a losing position by July.
I must be a negativo/bearish because really unwilling to close the position.
Mr. Market has lost his mind.
Good luck.
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Mr. Market has lost his mind.
Good luck.
82, do you follow Jim Sloan on SA? Always a good read, and he had a piece out today looking back not only at 1918 but also similar "sudden stop" events and their impact on the markets. Interesting stuff.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4350047-things-different-in-1918-comparisons-2020-uncover-crucial-question?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=jim-sloan-things-were-different-in-1918-but-comparisons-with-2020-uncover-a-crucial-question&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-1
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Mr. Market has lost his mind.
Good luck.
Never underestimate the Fed and their money printing machine. Toss in a bit of FOMO and you have a relentless bull recovery. I’ve gotten my teeth kicked in the last few weeks disbelieving it. You can see how manipulated things are right now. Buying frenzy overnight, then a listless drift throughout the day.
“Pinning” major stocks on Friday is a common practice by market makers to limit risk in open option positions. Often near big round numbers where open option interest clusters. You can normally get a sense by late afternoon on a Friday. NFLX can’t break away from 425, BA sticking to 130, TSLA to 825, etc... but lately it’s gotten obscene, you can predict some of the larger name closing prices by noon CST, with strong accuracy. What that tells me is that the invisible hand that moves the market does its business and then gets out (not like the Fed buys all day, nor would funds piggybacking it), and then an otherwise undecided, low volume, listless market gets corralled rather easily by MMS. You’ll see stocks move up with the S&P or DIA then suddenly not budge even when indexes push up or down. It’s gotten pretty ridiculous, more so than I can ever recall seeing in the last 5-10 years.
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82, do you follow Jim Sloan on SA? Always a good read, and he had a piece out today looking back not only at 1918 but also similar "sudden stop" events and their impact on the markets. Interesting stuff.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4350047-things-different-in-1918-comparisons-2020-uncover-crucial-question?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=jim-sloan-things-were-different-in-1918-but-comparisons-with-2020-uncover-a-crucial-question&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-1
I don't follow him because his investing style is different from mine, but I do occasionally read his big-picture stuff and I saw this one.
It was interesting, but I'm still not sure exactly how it translates to much info I can use in 2020.
Never underestimate the Fed and their money printing machine. Toss in a bit of FOMO and you have a relentless bull recovery. I’ve gotten my teeth kicked in the last few weeks disbelieving it. You can see how manipulated things are right now. Buying frenzy overnight, then a listless drift throughout the day.
“Pinning” major stocks on Friday is a common practice by market makers to limit risk in open option positions. Often near big round numbers where open option interest clusters. You can normally get a sense by late afternoon on a Friday. NFLX can’t break away from 425, BA sticking to 130, TSLA to 825, etc... but lately it’s gotten obscene, you can predict some of the larger name closing prices by noon CST, with strong accuracy. What that tells me is that the invisible hand that moves the market does its business and then gets out (not like the Fed buys all day, nor would funds piggybacking it), and then an otherwise undecided, low volume, listless market gets corralled rather easily by MMS. You’ll see stocks move up with the S&P or DIA then suddenly not budge even when indexes push up or down. It’s gotten pretty ridiculous, more so than I can ever recall seeing in the last 5-10 years.
I hear ya, my friend, and I agree.
I am thankful I already have met most of my investing goals, and I am pretty cautious now. Trying to stay somewhat invested while also protecting my principal. It's never easy, and this market is downright scary IMHO.
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Never underestimate the Fed and their money printing machine. Toss in a bit of FOMO and you have a relentless bull recovery. I’ve gotten my teeth kicked in the last few weeks disbelieving it. You can see how manipulated things are right now. Buying frenzy overnight, then a listless drift throughout the day.
“Pinning” major stocks on Friday is a common practice by market makers to limit risk in open option positions. Often near big round numbers where open option interest clusters. You can normally get a sense by late afternoon on a Friday. NFLX can’t break away from 425, BA sticking to 130, TSLA to 825, etc... but lately it’s gotten obscene, you can predict some of the larger name closing prices by noon CST, with strong accuracy. What that tells me is that the invisible hand that moves the market does its business and then gets out (not like the Fed buys all day, nor would funds piggybacking it), and then an otherwise undecided, low volume, listless market gets corralled rather easily by MMS. You’ll see stocks move up with the S&P or DIA then suddenly not budge even when indexes push up or down. It’s gotten pretty ridiculous, more so than I can ever recall seeing in the last 5-10 years.
Thanks for the breakdown.
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Just wondering, has anyone changed changed their asset allocation in their long term investments for retirement. I am a stogy Vanguard investor who was about 70/30 stock/bond in index funds. I had no problem dollar cost averaging through market corrections. I recently flipped to 30/70 and am wondering why I am 30% in stocks with little upside and lots of uncertainty ahead.
I still think stocks will be higher than they are now in about 10 years when I plan on starting retirement, and "stay the course" will prevail, but it is going to be an interesting ride.
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Just wondering, has anyone changed changed their asset allocation in their long term investments for retirement. I am a stogy Vanguard investor who was about 70/30 stock/bond in index funds. I had no problem dollar cost averaging through market corrections. I recently flipped to 30/70 and am wondering why I am 30% in stocks with little upside and lots of uncertainty ahead.
I still think stocks will be higher than they are now in about 10 years when I plan on starting retirement, and "stay the course" will prevail, but it is going to be an interesting ride.
I feel your pain.
I have my highest non-stock allocation in many, many years, only about 60% stocks now. I feel fortunate because I'm not still trying to build a retirement portfolio, but I am trying to safeguard what I have while not giving up all growth. Tricky times.
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Just wondering, has anyone changed changed their asset allocation in their long term investments for retirement. I am a stogy Vanguard investor who was about 70/30 stock/bond in index funds. I had no problem dollar cost averaging through market corrections. I recently flipped to 30/70 and am wondering why I am 30% in stocks with little upside and lots of uncertainty ahead.
I still think stocks will be higher than they are now in about 10 years when I plan on starting retirement, and "stay the course" will prevail, but it is going to be an interesting ride.
If your time horizon is 10 plus years out and you're pretty sure stocks will be higher then, then why not stay fully invested in a portfolio that is appropriate for your risk tolerance. Figure out where your risk tolerance lies and then invest accordingly. Re-balance periodically to sell when things are good and buy when markets go down. Stay invested, don't try to time the market. There have been many studies done that show the reason individual investors underperform the markets is because we let emotions drive our investment decisions. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball and know that I'm not smart enough to time the market consistently. I've been managing money for about 20 years now, this is my 3rd recession, and they've all been painful and scary, but each time our advice to our clients has been the same. Don't panic, this too shall pass and the markets will eventually continue to do well for us in the long-term. Keep in mind that if we go back to 1950 we have had 10 bull markets and 10 bear markets. The average length of the bear markets has lasted 1.3 years and has an average cumulative loss of 36%. The average bull market has lasted 5.9 years and has an average cumulative total return of 184%.
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If your time horizon is 10 plus years out and you're pretty sure stocks will be higher then, then why not stay fully invested in a portfolio that is appropriate for your risk tolerance. Figure out where your risk tolerance lies and then invest accordingly. Re-balance periodically to sell when things are good and buy when markets go down. Stay invested, don't try to time the market. There have been many studies done that show the reason individual investors underperform the markets is because we let emotions drive our investment decisions. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball and know that I'm not smart enough to time the market consistently. I've been managing money for about 20 years now, this is my 3rd recession, and they've all been painful and scary, but each time our advice to our clients has been the same. Don't panic, this too shall pass and the markets will eventually continue to do well for us in the long-term. Keep in mind that if we go back to 1950 we have had 10 bull markets and 10 bear markets. The average length of the bear markets has lasted 1.3 years and has an average cumulative loss of 36%. The average bull market has lasted 5.9 years and has an average cumulative total return of 184%.
This is excellent advice for any long-term investor with decent risk tolerance and still many years to retirement. (Could be good for others, too, but especially for those folks.)
Thanks for posting.
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I had a bad feeling when I made the switch since the Vanguard approach has worked well. The issue is that I am a scientist and think that another wave will hit when the seasons change. I can deal with economic cycles just fine - pandemic uncertainty not so much.
My thinking is that I would like to restore my asset allocation, but will do so gradually once a certain amount of time passes (I am not really targeting a level on the S&P) - hopefully a mass produced vaccine will be on the horizon by next spring.
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I had a bad feeling when I made the switch since the Vanguard approach has worked well. The issue is that I am a scientist and think that another wave will hit when the seasons change. I can deal with economic cycles just fine - pandemic uncertainty not so much.
My thinking is that I would like to restore my asset allocation, but will do so gradually once a certain amount of time passes (I am not really targeting a level on the S&P) - hopefully a mass produced vaccine will be on the horizon by next spring.
I enjoy reading all these experts. I'm retired, been there done that. I have a young friend just out of college investing in video games and making a killing, ha.
I'm far from wealthy, I live well. House paid for, apartment in Italy, life is good.
Had a professor in grad. school who said that the wealthy never invest in the market. What?
I'm talking wealthy, not us. They invest in T bills and land. Simple minded, perhaps. So, I "gamble" with a few stocks for fun, for cocktail conversation. The rest is in cash, T bills. So if I ÷ my burn rate into my principle, I'm covered until I'm 94. I'm 77.
I spent many years in actuarial science, and that is my approach. The trust officer would like a little more action, ha.
You're welcome, I doubt you will take it.
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I had a bad feeling when I made the switch since the Vanguard approach has worked well. The issue is that I am a scientist and think that another wave will hit when the seasons change. I can deal with economic cycles just fine - pandemic uncertainty not so much.
My thinking is that I would like to restore my asset allocation, but will do so gradually once a certain amount of time passes (I am not really targeting a level on the S&P) - hopefully a mass produced vaccine will be on the horizon by next spring.
You’ll be fine. Even with a second wave. The Fed has made it clear they will continue to buy and backstop the market until things are good again. Powell blatantly said that a Fed injection is an alternative to a vaccine in the near term.
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You’ll be fine. Even with a second wave. The Fed has made it clear they will continue to buy and backstop the market until things are good again. Powell blatantly said that a Fed injection is an alternative to a vaccine in the near term.
Keep printing them dollars. Hope people use em.
-America's fiscal plan
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IMO market has come too far too fast...My opinion and $3.00 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks...
If folks are familiar with the pitfalls of investor behavior in turbulent times why don’t they throw a collar on? A collar is an options term for a strategy in which you buy a put and sell a call versus being long the underlying.... Pretty simple yet effective. Put a collar on and you can sleep at night, pay attention and manage the short call and you are all good...
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CCL is a ballsy buy, rocket. I hope it does great for you.
at $13/sh it might have been a bllsy move, but they did have the table set nicely with a lot of cash on hand what better way for people to get out of the city and go on a cruise, eyn'a?
up 22% or so today! also marathon oil, boeing, fastenol, home depot and P & G have been long holds for me. yes, i have some stinkers, but these guys are holding me. along with family dollar(bought at $70) GE, another long hold from $6 making a comeback
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at $13/sh it might have been a bllsy move, but they did have the table set nicely with a lot of cash on hand what better way for people to get out of the city and go on a cruise, eyn'a?
up 22% or so today! also marathon oil, boeing, fastenol, home depot and P & G have been long holds for me. yes, i have some stinkers, but these guys are holding me. along with family dollar(bought at $70) GE, another long hold from $6 making a comeback
Nicely done, sir.
Generally, the market is absolutely out of its mind right now, totally unsupported by fundamentals. But hell, I'm enjoying the ride. Might even start doing some selective selling next week if skyrocket continues. And if it goes the other way to match the actual reality, and we have another crash, I can do some buying (though that's unlikely with the Fed now going full tilt).
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Nicely done, sir.
Generally, the market is absolutely out of its mind right now, totally unsupported by fundamentals. But hell, I'm enjoying the ride. Might even start doing some selective selling next week if skyrocket continues. And if it goes the other way to match the actual reality, and we have another crash, I can do some buying (though that's unlikely with the Fed now going full tilt).
seems like people are afraid to miss the bus. there will probably be some corrections, but as i stated, carnival is one that is set up and ready to go. my opinion-i see $30 easy, then leveling off until it can prove that people are willing to use some disposable income and jobs continue to be revived. the stress from the virus shut down and now the floyd situation-people need an escape. plus ccl is probably hiring too. win win this was a $60 stock 2 years ago
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I enjoy reading all these experts. I'm retired, been there done that. I have a young friend just out of college investing in video games and making a killing, ha.
I'm far from wealthy, I live well. House paid for, apartment in Italy, life is good.
Had a professor in grad. school who said that the wealthy never invest in the market. What?
I'm talking wealthy, not us. They invest in T bills and land. Simple minded, perhaps. So, I "gamble" with a few stocks for fun, for cocktail conversation. The rest is in cash, T bills. So if I ÷ my burn rate into my principle, I'm covered until I'm 94. I'm 77.
I spent many years in actuarial science, and that is my approach. The trust officer would like a little more action, ha.
You're welcome, I doubt you will take it.
Interesting take on wealthy people. The wealthy individuals I know (20 million plus net worth) invest mostly in stocks, etf’s, etc.
One of them was just telling me yesterday they bought around 150,000 shares of NTG around $1.15 and it’s currently up to $23. Granted the reason it’s at $23 is because they did a 10 to 1 stock split. I guess everyone’s risk tolerance is different, though.
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Interesting take on wealthy people. The wealthy individuals I know (20 million plus net worth) invest mostly in stocks, etf’s, etc.
One of them was just telling me yesterday they bought around 150,000 shares of NTG around $1.15 and it’s currently up to $23. Granted the reason it’s at $23 is because they did a 10 to 1 stock split. I guess everyone’s risk tolerance is different, though.
This is much more realistic. Sounds like that professor didn’t know wealthy people or had a small sample at best. Diversification is key. Baskets of equities, ETFs, commodities, and Forex when done properly.
The main outside investor in my company was the first President of a mega tech company you all know. He hasnt has to work since he “retired” in the late 80s in his late 30s. I remember specifically saying that not investing in the stock market, when you had the capital to “spread your risk” was one of the most foolish things an affluent person could do.
My former roommate is in PWM for high net worth customers at Northern Trust and same thing is true.
Do the wealthy invest tons in land/real estate? Absolutely. In T-bills? Probably. Do they avoid the stock market by and large or all together? Not a chance
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My wealthiest friends own a ton of real estate. Second, third, fourth homes for themselves to play at, but also lots of rental properties.
A couple of my buddies were buying them left and right in 2009, 2010 and 2011, especially in Phoenix and Florida. Unfortunately, money was tight for moi back then, because that was a great idea.
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i don't know what the definitions of upper, upper mid and middle class are, but i sure do not view myself as "wealthy" i have been able to provide well for my family and able to enjoy some nice things. if not for the economic blow-out of 2008-09, it never would have crossed my mind to buy a 2nd home. i was just in the right place at the right time. my parents had been going down to lake havasu city for 25 years. i was somewhat familiar with havasu and really liked it!
after 7 years, it rebounded by 40%. couple that with the 20% down, 7 years of pay down on the mortgage and we eagerly sold and reinvested in a little bigger/better in surprise, Az. probably the best all around choices i've ever made. it sure as hell saved my sanity from march 17-april 27
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Those who have monetary wealth are normally invested in larger investments like private equity offerings and real estate. They also have a wealth manager. They’re not online attempting to day trade stocks. 😂
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Those who have monetary wealth are normally invested in larger investments like private equity offerings and real estate. They also have a wealth manager. They’re not online attempting to day trade stocks. 😂
This guy is day trading online. He says he made $5 million in the last two months and is now the greatest day trader of all time.
Oh, I also read that his periscope live streaming of him day trading all day has a larger audience than CNBC.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/im-worlds-greatest-day-trader-barstools-dave-portnoy-epitomizes-retails-takeover-rigged
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This guy is day trading online. He says he made $5 million in the last two months and is now the greatest day trader of all time.
Oh, I also read that his periscope live streaming of him day trading all day has a larger audience than CNBC.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/im-worlds-greatest-day-trader-barstools-dave-portnoy-epitomizes-retails-takeover-rigged
Actual profits Portnoy makes are secondary to the content he creates for his audience to consume via Periscope and otherwise. He’s an enormous draw to an engaged and passionate audience. Pre-COVID, it was focused on major sporting events, gambling, and other associated trips. In the absence of that, day trading was a viable content source. He was pulling huge numbers of viewers even as he got his head kicked in. Now he’s on a hot streak and making blustery comments cause it fits the character and the persona. It’s all kayfabe with real market wins and losses.
It’s hardly a representative example of how wealthy people invest.
I will say, it’s fascinating the reach. It took a mere 2 months before Barstool/Portnoy was popping up in all financial media and social accounts when that was never their space, save for a random appearance on MadMoney
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The above recs I made back on March 20 now up an aggregate 73%. Of those, I'd still get in on AMRN, GNPX, SAVA, AQST, NVTA. (All under $17). I wouldn't expect a lot of movement up in near term for any, but over the course of the next year these have strong liklihood of delivering a 2x return aggregate.
NVTA!
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Do the wealthy invest tons in land/real estate? Absolutely. In T-bills? Probably. Do they avoid the stock market by and large or all together? Not a chance
I would also throw in private tiered (mezzanines) debt seems to be big with high net worth individuals as well.
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NVTA!
You don't usually see the acquiring company go up like that
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i don't know what the definitions of upper, upper mid and middle class are, but i sure do not view myself as "wealthy" i have been able to provide well for my family and able to enjoy some nice things. if not for the economic blow-out of 2008-09, it never would have crossed my mind to buy a 2nd home. i was just in the right place at the right time. my parents had been going down to lake havasu city for 25 years. i was somewhat familiar with havasu and really liked it!
after 7 years, it rebounded by 40%. couple that with the 20% down, 7 years of pay down on the mortgage and we eagerly sold and reinvested in a little bigger/better in surprise, Az. probably the best all around choices i've ever made. it sure as hell saved my sanity from march 17-april 27
I love hearing honesty.
7 years and it rebounded 40%, and then the pandemic, truth from the heart. It takes a lot of crowns and hard work to make up the difference.
To my knowledge I have known only one wealthy person, I mean wealthy. Hundreds of millions, and that was 1963 at Marquette. Now it's probably in the billions to qualify.
It's rags to rags in three generations, hard to beat the system.
Oh, and the big pension trusts, thousands of small investments. I was suprised also. They have consultants, big time fees, hundreds of thousands, why? To advise which investments to NOT MAKE.
The young are the risk takers, go for the gold, why not? You would probably be suprised how much the little old lady at church is worth.
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You don't usually see the acquiring company go up like that
Very true. The combined expertise of NVTA and ArcherDX will be a paradigm shifter in the cancer arena.
Another early stage candidate doing some great work is WRTC - founded by an acquaintance of mine. Share price has run up lately, yet the product has great potential for worldwide adoption.
Anyone looking to take a flier on an early-stage biotech that has good potential should look at ONTX currently trading at $0.58/share.
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boeing 737 max test flights to begin-let's see how the market reacts, or has that "secret" already built into the price?
but aircraft demand at 0...no surprise
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Very true. The combined expertise of NVTA and ArcherDX will be a paradigm shifter in the cancer arena.
Another early stage candidate doing some great work is WRTC - founded by an acquaintance of mine. Share price has run up lately, yet the product has great potential for worldwide adoption.
Anyone looking to take a flier on an early-stage biotech that has good potential should look at ONTX currently trading at $0.58/share.
ONTX mentioned above on the move today. WRTC is still a good play even though up 33% from time of above post.
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See ... THIS is the kind of executive-level stuff I find reprehensible ...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/macys-bonuses-executives-job-cuts
Macy's doled out $9 million in equity bonuses to its top executives just two weeks after the retailer said it would cut thousands of jobs in its corporate office.
CEO Jeff Gennette received restricted stock worth about $3.6 million on July 9, according to a regulatory filing. The other five, including legal chief Elisa Garcia, Chief Operating Officer John Harper and Chief Transformation Officer Danielle Kirgan, received sums ranging from $900,000 to $3 million, according to the filings.
I don't like painting anybody with a broad brush, so I am NOT saying "CEOs are bad," or anything of the like. I am saying actions like this one -- which are all too common -- are unethical, immoral and, well, pretty close to evil.
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See ... THIS is the kind of executive-level stuff I find reprehensible ...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/macys-bonuses-executives-job-cuts
Macy's doled out $9 million in equity bonuses to its top executives just two weeks after the retailer said it would cut thousands of jobs in its corporate office.
CEO Jeff Gennette received restricted stock worth about $3.6 million on July 9, according to a regulatory filing. The other five, including legal chief Elisa Garcia, Chief Operating Officer John Harper and Chief Transformation Officer Danielle Kirgan, received sums ranging from $900,000 to $3 million, according to the filings.
I don't like painting anybody with a broad brush, so I am NOT saying "CEOs are bad," or anything of the like. I am saying actions like this one -- which are all too common -- are unethical, immoral and, well, pretty close to evil.
I agree they're reprehensible and horrible. I've often wondered if those execs have bonuses written into their contracts that make companies do it regardless of the situation.
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ONTX mentioned above on the move today. WRTC is still a good play even though up 33% from time of above post.
ONTX up 22% today to $.98/share.
VBIV was another I got in on 4 months ago. It's run up a lot recently, however they have a strong pipeline, and are the only pharma with a pan-corona vaccine candidate - which would provide antibodies against mutations of COVID viruses, as well as MERS. Additionally, they have a best in class Hepatitis B vaccine that is approved in Israel, already, and likely will gain US approval in Q1 2021.
https://insiderfinancial.com/novovax-investors-need-to-look-at-vbi-vaccines/180137/
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sorrento!!
took a flyer as this was so cheap and there were so many companies with drugs, vaccines, tests etc going on. bought in at 8 and 13. hope this isn't another one of those "kodak" moments
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Think Ellenson Family Reunion gives some good advice above. This dip is a great thing for you being 30 years out. If you are a buy and hold guy, ideas I'd present would be: AMRN, ETSY, ULTA, RVLV, SQ, BA, SHOP, CTAS.
Higher volatility biotechs I like (a sector invest 50% of my portfolio): AXSM, FLGT, GNPX, NVTA, SAVA, AQST, IGMS.
Bloom Energy (BE) is also an interesting company with a bright future IMO.
Invest at your own risk above. Just sharing some ideas.
Hope some of you got in on these. BE, ETSY, SQ, RVLV, FLGT, AQST, NVTA all 4 baggers.
I just hit a nice home run on some APPS calls that I bought 4 weeks ago. Entering overbought territory now, but they have a very bright future. Also got in on CLSK last Thursday and that has run up nicely.
I'm hoping to buy in on OTRK if it will drop back into the mid $40s.
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Hope some of you got in on these. BE, ETSY, SQ, RVLV, FLGT, AQST, NVTA all 4 baggers.
I just hit a nice home run on some APPS calls that I bought 4 weeks ago. Entering overbought territory now, but they have a very bright future. Also got in on CLSK last Thursday and that has run up nicely.
I'm hoping to buy in on OTRK if it will drop back into the mid $40s.
you got your wish
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Could one of you guys explain WTF is going on in the markets?
I get it .. unemployment isn't the only driver for "the market" or "the economy" .. but revenue sure as hell does.
Yes, there are industries whose revenues are normal or higher in COVID times. E-commerce. Tech providers. Video conferencing. Grocery.
But tons of industries will have massively reduced revenue, now and into 2021. There is massive uncertainty in what is going to happen.
If there's massive risk .. and revenues will be way down for a huge chunk of the global economy -- for years -- how the hell is the market near it's highest ever?
I'll hang up and listen.
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Could one of you guys explain WTF is going on in the markets?
I get it .. unemployment isn't the only driver for "the market" or "the economy" .. but revenue sure as hell does.
Yes, there are industries whose revenues are normal or higher in COVID times. E-commerce. Tech providers. Video conferencing. Grocery.
But tons of industries will have massively reduced revenue, now and into 2021. There is massive uncertainty in what is going to happen.
If there's massive risk .. and revenues will be way down for a huge chunk of the global economy -- for years -- how the hell is the market near it's highest ever?
I'll hang up and listen.
If you can print endless money to buy various financial vehicles, you can back stop the market. Basically the Fed has been buying Trillions in bonds, ETFs, and the like over the last few months. This in turn gives funds the confidence to know they wont let the markets fall. So they buy aggressively and factor that support into their long term projections.
This is a few big names, like AMZN or other tech leaders, who had great revenues during COVID times (and are a large part of indicies so when they go up, it pushes indicies up) and the Fed pushing money and liquidity into the market and being the tide that lifts all boats.
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If you can print endless money to buy various financial vehicles, you can back stop the market. Basically the Fed has been buying Trillions in bonds, ETFs, and the like over the last few months. This in turn gives funds the confidence to know they wont let the markets fall. So they buy aggressively and factor that support into their long term projections.
This is a few big names, like AMZN or other tech leaders, who had great revenues during COVID times (and are a large part of indicies so when they go up, it pushes indicies up) and the Fed pushing money and liquidity into the market and being the tide that lifts all boats.
And what happens when the fed stops putting money in? Or what are the long-term ramifications of this money printing?
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Also, the S&P500, for example, is weighted by market capitalization. I heard the stat a few days ago that the FAANG stocks are up collectively 35% for the year while the other 495 stocks in the index are -5% collectively. So the really big names are propping up the indices.
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Because the big funds, pension trusts like the Pennsylvania Public School Employee's Retirement System hold blue chips and don't trade much.
I suggest most of you guys get a real job and save your money.
Most of you won't because you believe in the propaganda of Wall Street. Besides gambling is fun.
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And what happens when the fed stops putting money in? Or what are the long-term ramifications of this money printing?
We will see air pockets of downside. Unfortunately none of this is sustainable. The long term ramifications is inflation, and hyper inflation if it gets really bad. It’s trading potential long term chaos for short term stability and “protection”
Because the big funds, pension trusts like the Pennsylvania Public School Employee's Retirement System hold blue chips and don't trade much.
I suggest most of you guys get a real job and save your money.
Most of you won't because you believe in the propaganda of Wall Street. Besides gambling is fun.
Does it ever get exhausting being a pretentious know it all jackass?
Nobody in here is day trading. Most everyone has a sensible investing strategy and realistic goals and expectations.
Have fun with your sub 1% savings rate while other people bought into that “propaganda” and got 10-20x that in gains annually, while in conservative ETFs and index funds, Not everyone has a absurd bloated pension fund to provide for them in their old age while they stash cash under their mattress
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And what happens when the fed stops putting money in? Or what are the long-term ramifications of this money printing?
Doot doot. This is why you buy Bitcoin.
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Exactly.
And no one seems to care.
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Long term ramifications are inflation. I don't think hyperinflation where we are printing trillion dollar bills like Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany is likely, BUT, will there be years of 5%, 7%, even 10% inflation in my lifetime? I think it is unavoidable at this point. It is the only way we will be able to get our national debt back to a sustainable level and level off from all of the liquidity being firehosed into the system. This will also relieve the immense student debt and consumer debt burdens.
It is what it is. Diversify. Some cash is important for emergencies, but invest in things that are more inflation-proof. There's lots of good options.
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It is what it is. Diversify. Some cash is important for emergencies, but invest in things that are more inflation-proof. There's lots of good options.
Yep. It’s as good a time as ever to look into alternative investments. I’ve never been a big precious metals guy, but gold looks appealing for the first time in YEARS. REITs that invest in some of the mid tier cities. Emerging markets. Plenty of interesting opportunity even if the US equity market could be facing headwinds
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We will see air pockets of downside. Unfortunately none of this is sustainable. The long term ramifications is inflation, and hyper inflation if it gets really bad. It’s trading potential long term chaos for short term stability and “protection”
Does it ever get exhausting being a pretentious know it all jackass?
Nobody in here is day trading. Most everyone has a sensible investing strategy and realistic goals and expectations.
Have fun with your sub 1% savings rate while other people bought into that “propaganda” and got 10-20x that in gains annually, while in conservative ETFs and index funds, Not everyone has a absurd bloated pension fund to provide for them in their old age while they stash cash under their mattress
I am substantially invested in the market, however a rathervsmall % of total assets.
There is no such thing as an investment strategy. Like asset allocation, total bull.
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you got your wish
Yes. It had to fill that gap in the chart from $40-$46, so not surprised it fell back. However, did not expect it to happen this fast. Bought in today at $42.99.
RVLV might be a good short term, short option, after its run up on earnings reported after the bell today. Should it remain gapped up from $19.50 to $24.50 for a few days, I may take a short position.
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Apple and Tesla both move upwards on the day they each split(4:1 and 5:1 respectively).
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Still believe AMRN is a a great investment at its current $7.62 share price. Revenues doubled 3 years in a row and Q1 2020 up 108% over Q1 2019. Market cap of only 2.94B. $645M Cash on hand. Suspect this is being held down by big pharma as their one drug, Vascepa, will disrupt the whole cardiovascular drug market, and how care is delivered.
Some big catalysts ahead in near term for AMRN, with readouts of their EVAPORATE study - which essential shows clearing of arteries - which can eliminate need for stenting. European approval and partners should be announced in Q3.
I now have 50% of my portfolio invested into AMRN dollar cost averaged down to $8.25.
More bad news for AMRN as they lose their patent appeal. Shares now sub $5.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/appeals-court-rules-against-amarin-in-vascepa-patent-dispute/ar-BB18GgRr?ocid=msedgntp
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More bad news for AMRN as they lose their patent appeal. Shares now sub $5.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/appeals-court-rules-against-amarin-in-vascepa-patent-dispute/ar-BB18GgRr?ocid=msedgntp
While some people's favorite board personality has been totally wrong on AMRN, this is really a discouraging and concerning decision as it pertains to drug development. Nothing other than a small study used by Hikma showed the drug and its effects to be "obvious". The FDA made AMRN test and sample extensively, which normally is open and shut in their defense in a situation like this.
The judges were pretty biased and went into the decision yesterday/today with their minds made up. There was zero cross examination of Hikma and they came to a complete, overarching conclusion within 24 hours. Just wild and incredibly deflating for "little guys" in the pharma
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More bad news for AMRN as they lose their patent appeal. Shares now sub $5.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/appeals-court-rules-against-amarin-in-vascepa-patent-dispute/ar-BB18GgRr?ocid=msedgntp
Was a brutal decision for all of the reasons JWags laid out above AND the fact that there was nothing obvious about isolating EPA from Fish Oil that suggested it would raise HDL and lower LDL. The FDA put AMRN through a rigorous 11,000+ person study to prove its drug did in fact do the above, and that it reduced MACE risk. The results astounded the cardiology community.
25% risk reduction of MACE for those taking Vascepa vs Placebo. Something very shady has taken place here - Big Pharma likely behind the scenes as AMRN didn't sell to them, AND their drug can radically shift the paradigm in care in pharmaceuticals used in cardiac care.
IF the science were so obvious, there is no reason Big Pharma nor any other entity wouldn't have moved forward on their own years ago..at the time AMRN began.
Thankfully I crushed some other investments to offset AMRN, and also dollar cost averaged down when the initial ruling came out back on March 30 buying a lot more at $4.05/share.
AMRN still has patents in Europe and should be approved for release there in Q1. I'm still holding I think this is worth more than $5/share.
P.S. - Judges not even issuing their rationale is absurd in a case with billions on the line...and I suspect the reason for not issuing their rationale is because to do so would be an exercise in pretzel logic.
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A good day to have PFE in your portfolio.
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A good day to have lots of things in your portfolio.
Even "boring" stocks that have nothing to do with vaccines are going bonkers today -- and were especially rolling shortly after open. Names like KO, RTX, HON, O, MA, SBUX, and so on. Utilities up. Banks up. Oil up. Up, up, up.
I thought about taking some profits, decided against it, but then did decide to do a little selling and might do a little more.
I'm not a trader, I'm a reluctant seller who prefers a buy-and-holdish style, but some of these run-ups are pretty inexplicable.
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A good day to have lots of things in your portfolio.
Even "boring" stocks that have nothing to do with vaccines are going bonkers today -- and were especially rolling shortly after open. Names like KO, RTX, HON, O, MA, SBUX, and so on. Utilities up. Banks up. Oil up. Up, up, up.
I thought about taking some profits, decided against it, but then did decide to do a little selling and might do a little more.
I'm not a trader, I'm a reluctant seller who prefers a buy-and-holdish style, but some of these run-ups are pretty inexplicable.
Except tech down on the notion that people won't be forced to stay at home within the foreseeable future, and the S&P500 up by less than half a percent. The Dow had a good day, but not so much the broader market.
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Except tech down on the notion that people won't be forced to stay at home within the foreseeable future, and the S&P500 up by less than half a percent. The Dow had a good day, but not so much the broader market.
Oh, there were some others that went way down, mostly from industries that had gained big during the coronavirus: CLX, HD, LOW, GIS, TGT, PG, etc.
It was an interesting, kind of bizarro day for Mr. Market.
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Oh, there were some others that went way down, mostly from industries that had gained big during the coronavirus: CLX, HD, LOW, GIS, TGT, PG, etc.
It was an interesting, kind of bizarro day for Mr. Market.
Sector rotation from "lockdown stocks" to "reopen stocks"
My emergency fund is still larger than normal. It's going to be a long winter... though maybe not for public companies.
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OK Scoopvestors, so what are your top picks for 2021?
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Last week there was a local story. They interviewed a Yale Economic Professor who thought we were going to enter a "Roaring 20's minus the flapper girls post Coronavirus". There are a lot of similarities per his analysis. Spanish Flu & WWI among others.
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OK Scoopvestors, so what are your top picks for 2021?
My portfolio is now fully invested in two stocks : GMGI (global online gambling infrastructure/software) and SHMP (clean natural seafood technology and processes). Both had great runups late in the year and gaining volume. Fingers crossed.
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Last week there was a local story. They interviewed a Yale Economic Professor who thought we were going to enter a "Roaring 20's minus the flapper girls post Coronavirus". There are a lot of similarities per his analysis. Spanish Flu & WWI among others.
Interesting food for thought, but I won't act on it.
The world now acts at, excuse the expression, warp speed.
If we have the Roaring 2020's it would probably be a very short lived phenomenon.
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My portfolio is now fully invested in two stocks : GMGI (global online gambling infrastructure/software) and SHMP (clean natural seafood technology and processes). Both had great runups late in the year and gaining volume. Fingers crossed.
You seriously have all of your money in TWO stocks?
1) How old are you?
2) Why do you hate money?
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Concentration makes you rich, diversification keeps you rich
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Quick! Someone tell me where to invest to maximize the next 2 years!
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Quick! Someone tell me where to invest to maximize the next 2 years!
Pot stocks. And reverse ETFs.
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Pot stocks. And reverse ETFs.
You think the market is gonna go down? Everything I've seen says Kamala was hand-picked by wall street and they love Biden too.
Sure, maybe the general market goes down a bit, but if they really feared biden/harris, they wouldn't have supported their candidacy. There's money to be made
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You think the market is gonna go down? Everything I've seen says Kamala was hand-picked by wall street and they love Biden too.
Sure, maybe the general market goes down a bit, but if they really feared biden/harris, they wouldn't have supported their candidacy. There's money to be made
It's a half hour before the market opens and here are my (probably wrong) thoughts:
1) I'm expecting a big down market today on news of what happened in Georgia. As much as 10 percent down. But it will be short lived and rebound fairly quickly as the world becomes accustomed to the new normal in government.
2) The Kamala thing is interesting. I said the same thing about Hillary Clinton more than four years ago. The Goldman Sacs money paid to Hillary was an investment in assuring she didn't go too far off the ranch. If true, same for Kamala.
3) The "real" government is on "K" Street in Washington. The lobbyists for the real estate agents, bankers, gun makers, credit unions, manufacturers, laborers etc. We may have changed stripes in Congress and on Pennsylvania Avenue, but we didn't on K Street. These guys are protecting economic interests, not social interests.
4) I'm not sure I'd be owning oil company stocks right now, or most utilities. Energy will be a volatile investment for years to come.
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1) I'm expecting a big down market today on news of what happened in Georgia. As much as 10 percent down. But it will be short lived and rebound fairly quickly as the world becomes accustomed to the new normal in government.
There is no way the market is down 10% today without economic news. If this was that big of an event, futures would have already plummeted.
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It's a half hour before the market opens and here are my (probably wrong) thoughts:
1) I'm expecting a big down market today on news of what happened in Georgia. As much as 10 percent down. But it will be short lived and rebound fairly quickly as the world becomes accustomed to the new normal in government.
2) The Kamala thing is interesting. I said the same thing about Hillary Clinton more than four years ago. The Goldman Sacs money paid to Hillary was an investment in assuring she didn't go too far off the ranch. If true, same for Kamala.
3) The "real" government is on "K" Street in Washington. The lobbyists for the real estate agents, bankers, gun makers, credit unions, manufacturers, laborers etc. We may have changed stripes in Congress and on Pennsylvania Avenue, but we didn't on K Street. These guys are protecting economic interests, not social interests.
4) I'm not sure I'd be owning oil company stocks right now, or most utilities. Energy will be a volatile investment for years to come.
I disagree with most of this, but let's talk about utilities
4) Utilities are getting government money, not paying from their own balance sheet, to bring their energy production into the future with green energy. Wind + solar are getting efficient enough that we'll start seeing a lower need for oil/gas/coal, which will continue to drive down the cost of doing business for energy companies. I rotated about 5% of my portfolio into XLU in March.
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It's a half hour before the market opens and here are my (probably wrong) thoughts:
1) I'm expecting a big down market today on news of what happened in Georgia. As much as 10 percent down. But it will be short lived and rebound fairly quickly as the world becomes accustomed to the new normal in government.
This does not appear to be panning out.
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This does not appear to be panning out.
Not so far.
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Not so far.
Only needs to go down 3,300 points as 1020am EST.
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You think the market is gonna go down? Everything I've seen says Kamala was hand-picked by wall street and they love Biden too.
Sure, maybe the general market goes down a bit, but if they really feared biden/harris, they wouldn't have supported their candidacy. There's money to be made
In the very immediate short term, maybe not, but we will see how progressive an agenda is pushed by Dems controlling House, Senate, and WH
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In the very immediate short term, maybe not, but we will see how progressive an agenda is pushed by Dems controlling House, Senate, and WH
I actually think this is a red herring. There is the potential for a Senate that will not be obstructionist and bring legislation to the floor for votes. However, it cannot pass unless every democrat signs on or some moderate R's move. Manchin, Snow, Murkowski, a few others just gained a lot of power.
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I actually think this is a red herring. There is the potential for a Senate that will not be obstructionist and bring legislation to the floor for votes. However, it cannot pass unless every democrat signs on or some moderate R's move. Manchin, Snow, Murkowski, a few others just gained a lot of power.
My thought isn’t so much “DEMS BAD FOR BUSINESS”, more that the market is very overheated and has been for awhile. Trump and Co pulling every lever to get the market as high as possible, cause they were hanging there hat on it. IMO, it won’t take all that much to deflate that. So it doesn’t even have to be wildly broad reaching legislative change as much as slowing some of the last few years of administrative direction and eyes towards some further change.
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My thought isn’t so much “DEMS BAD FOR BUSINESS”, more that the market is very overheated and has been for awhile. Trump and Co pulling every lever to get the market as high as possible, cause they were hanging there hat on it. IMO, it won’t take all that much to deflate that. So it doesn’t even have to be wildly broad reaching legislative change as much as slowing some of the last few years of administrative direction and eyes towards some further change.
This, and since the levers have all been pulled, there are no more to be pulled.
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OK Scoopvestors, so what are your top picks for 2021?
Too soon to jump back in with the likes of CCL and travel/tourism? Cruise industry will bounce back strong imo, maybe late 2021 when we're fully vaccinated and procedures are in place. could be a good price now. Haven't analyzed their financials though...
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This, and since the levers have all been pulled, there are no more to be pulled.
The 'next' lever is the Fed no longer increasing interest rates to curtail inflation. Their last guidance on monetary policy to achieve an average inflation target instead of aiming for capped inflation will keep equities high for quite a while.
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Can anyone ELI5 modern monetary theory?
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Can anyone ELI5 modern monetary theory?
Basically governments fully control their own currency and can print it freely, spending doesn’t need to be constrained by balancing revenues with expenditures, cause they have a monopoly on the currency. Aka “how are we going to pay for it” no longer matters. Inflation isn’t a concern or is viewed as “we’ll deal with it when it happens”
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Basically governments fully control their own currency and can print it freely, spending doesn’t need to be constrained by balancing revenues with expenditures, cause they have a monopoly on the currency. Aka “how are we going to pay for it” no longer matters. Inflation isn’t a concern or is viewed as “we’ll deal with it when it happens”
I'll add this:
There are two types of inflation. A) Inflation of the money supply, and B) price inflation.
Most people think the two are synonymous, but they are two separate things. An increase in the money supply does not necessarily lead to an increase in the cost of goods and services.
Likewise, a decrease in the money supply mean does not necessarily mean prices will decrease.
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Basically governments fully control their own currency and can print it freely, spending doesn’t need to be constrained by balancing revenues with expenditures, cause they have a monopoly on the currency. Aka “how are we going to pay for it” no longer matters. Inflation isn’t a concern or is viewed as “we’ll deal with it when it happens”
And when inflation does happen, proponents of MMT will say we can just raise taxes to deal with it.
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Anyone have a bunch of SIGL before Musk confused the market and inadvertently sent it into the stratosphere?
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/signal-advance-jumps-another-438percent-after-elon-musk-fueled-buying-frenzy.html
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Anyone have a bunch of SIGL before Musk confused the market and inadvertently sent it into the stratosphere?
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/signal-advance-jumps-another-438percent-after-elon-musk-fueled-buying-frenzy.html
I'm no Musk fan, but the market acted irrationally and people did NO due diligence. His comments were not the source of confusion, stupid investors were the cause of confusion.
But sadly no, I didn't own any SIGL, and probably wouldn't have ever based on my limited research of them :)
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I'm no Musk fan, but the market acted irrationally and people did NO due diligence. His comments were not the source of confusion, stupid investors were the cause of confusion.
But sadly no, I didn't own any SIGL, and probably wouldn't have ever based on my limited research of them :)
This x100. Just like when people sent ZOOM into orbit with uniformed buying when they meant to buy ZM.
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I'm no Musk fan, but the market acted irrationally and people did NO due diligence. His comments were not the source of confusion, stupid investors were the cause of confusion.
But sadly no, I didn't own any SIGL, and probably wouldn't have ever based on my limited research of them :)
I agree with you completely. The market often acts irrationally. It frustrates me when some people claim there is always a “rational“ explanation for every market move.
Sometimes people - including people with money - just do dumb stuff.
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I got rich because I thought I was investing in myself.
It was only after I made $90 million on the stock that I found out it was Nike, with an N!
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This is my favorite thing in a long time.
https://www.wired.com/story/gamestop-stock-wall-street-bets-short-squeeze/
Also, at 11am they had pushed it to 159
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This is my favorite thing in a long time.
https://www.wired.com/story/gamestop-stock-wall-street-bets-short-squeeze/
Also, at 11am they had pushed it to 159
WSB is going to lead to financial ruin for quite a few people. But it’s entertaining as hell in the meantime
And I mean actual financial ruin. That sub Reddit is littered with people using credit cards and other loan instruments to fund their plays. In the midst of a funny money market run where you can close your eyes and throw a dart and hit a 10-20% stock gain. That’s not to mention people using margin on RobinHood without any clue how it works.
GME went to 160...then dropped to 80. I’d bet dollars to donuts it’s sub 50 by February.
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WSB is going to lead to financial ruin for quite a few people. But it’s entertaining as hell in the meantime
And I mean actual financial ruin. That sub Reddit is littered with people using credit cards and other loan instruments to fund their plays. In the midst of a funny money market run where you can close your eyes and throw a dart and hit a 10-20% stock gain. That’s not to mention people using margin on RobinHood without any clue how it works.
GME went to 160...then dropped to 80. I’d bet dollars to donuts it’s sub 50 by February.
You should short it. ;)
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My daughter, son-in-law and new grandson are visiting us from Seattle this week. My SIL likes "betting" on tech stocks, and made a pretty good killing on MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, AMZN and NFLX, among others.
He couldn't resist buying some GME at 40, and he sold it at 160. Not many shares, though; he mostly did it, as Wags said, "for entertainment."
This isn't the kind of investing I like to do, so all of this silliness won't affect me much. I'm a boring, blue-chip-dividend-grower, buy-and-holdish kind of guy, though I do have a more speculative "bucket" that includes the likes of AMZN, GOOGL, FB, TSLA, DKNG, etc. A relatively small part of my portfolio, though.
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You should short it. ;)
Or go long puts, 3+ months out.
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WSB is going to lead to financial ruin for quite a few people. But it’s entertaining as hell in the meantime
And I mean actual financial ruin. That sub Reddit is littered with people using credit cards and other loan instruments to fund their plays. In the midst of a funny money market run where you can close your eyes and throw a dart and hit a 10-20% stock gain. That’s not to mention people using margin on RobinHood without any clue how it works.
GME went to 160...then dropped to 80. I’d bet dollars to donuts it’s sub 50 by February.
What I most enjoyed about it is that they are slowly figuring out how markets can be manipulated. They're all psychos, and I would never entertain joining them, but I find the humor in it all.
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Or go long puts, 3+ months out.
Everything is so juiced. April $45Ps are $16. That’s insanity, the IV is out of a control. The stock takes a 50% haircut and you are still very red on those puts. Just not worth playing outside of commons right now.
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Everything is so juiced. April $45Ps are $16. That’s insanity, the IV is out of a control. The stock takes a 50% haircut and you are still very red on those puts. Just not worth playing outside of commons right now.
Agreed, I took a look as well and just can't stomach the premiums.
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Agreed, I took a look as well and just can't stomach the premiums.
Welp, changed my mind and went long the 2/19 30's with the stock at 114. We shall see.
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Welp, changed my mind and went long the 2/19 30's with the stock at 114. We shall see.
Ha ha, should have waited another 10 minutes before pulling the trigger
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Ha ha, should have waited another 10 minutes before pulling the trigger
Oh my god, this market is insane. I bought puts at $230/contract with the stock at 114, and sold for a profit at $260/contract even though the stock was at 144. Makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
When I saw that the stock had spiked, I was actually going back in to double down, but then I saw the put prices had actually risen I took my profit and got the hell out.
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Oh my god, this market is insane. I bought puts at $230/contract with the stock at 114, and sold for a profit at $260/contract even though the stock was at 144. Makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
When I saw that the stock had spiked, I was actually going back in to double down, but then I saw the put prices had actually risen I took my profit and got the hell out.
Yea the IV levels are batty when you get a stock moving like this and a few months out. I remember I once had GOOGL calls for earnings, probably 6-7 weeks out. The stock dropped $25 one day and my calls actually ended up increasing in value that day
If GME opens up near 225-250, I’m gonna have a HARD time not grabbing puts
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Yea the IV levels are batty when you get a stock moving like this and a few months out. I remember I once had GOOGL calls for earnings, probably 6-7 weeks out. The stock dropped $25 one day and my calls actually ended up increasing in value that day
If GME opens up near 225-250, I’m gonna have a HARD time not grabbing puts
Yeah, I agree, if it opens above 200 I'll take another stab. Although honestly, it feels more like a spin on the roulette wheel than investing, or even trading, at this point. I mean, I held the puts for exactly 66 minutes, during which time the stock moved against me more than 25% yet my puts went up 13%.
I was also thinking about the insiders and execs that hold tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of shares, and how a short time ago they were holding $4 stock with a future that looked like JC Penney's. Well, the future still looks like JCP to me, but now they've been gifted this opportunity to cash in at least some north of $140/share.
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I thought about buying at $90 this morning. In after hours it’s gotten up to $247. Never seen anything like this, it’s both explainable and totally illogical at the same time.
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Is this demonstrating how easily the market can be manipulated in today's social media sphere?
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https://twitter.com/edsbs/status/1354258459294900235?s=21
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Is this demonstrating how easily the market can be manipulated in today's social media sphere?
This is a unique situation. A heavily shorted stock, largely held short by a small group of funds. Activist investor that brought attention to it in late 2020. Then the collective power of WSB. It’s a perfect storm.
There are far more instances of people buying stock or options in advance of “news” that gets rumbled about on social media that ends up being nothing. Most big funds have algos that scrape social media sentiment and front run things.
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This is a unique situation. A heavily shorted stock, largely held short by a small group of funds. Activist investor that brought attention to it in late 2020. Then the collective power of WSB. It’s a perfect storm.
There are far more instances of people buying stock or options in advance of “news” that gets rumbled about on social media that ends up being nothing. Most big funds have algos that scrape social media sentiment and front run things.
There are a number of other stocks undergoing similar, but not as ridiculous, manipulation right now.
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I thought about buying at $90 this morning. In after hours it’s gotten up to $247. Never seen anything like this, it’s both explainable and totally illogical at the same time.
Volkswagon in 2008 ... known as the "infinity squeeze"
https://moxreports.com/vw-infinity-squeeze/
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This is a unique situation. A heavily shorted stock, largely held short by a small group of funds. Activist investor that brought attention to it in late 2020. Then the collective power of WSB. It’s a perfect storm.
There are far more instances of people buying stock or options in advance of “news” that gets rumbled about on social media that ends up being nothing. Most big funds have algos that scrape social media sentiment and front run things.
This sh!t does not work. And they are not scrapping WSB, so it is doubly a waste of time.
Wall Street is now a bunch of old men that don't get it and are shaking their fists at change. This is why Melvin Captial is effectively gone, Citron is done, and Citadel/Point72 has lost billions in the last two days.
Sit back and watch, this is going to get epic.
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There are a number of other stocks undergoing similar, but not as ridiculous, manipulation right now.
By Thursday afternoon you will be dropping the "not as ridiculous" qualifier.
See AMC (double since the NYSE close), BB, PLTR, PLUG, and BBBY.
And it is not manipulation. It is the proper screwing of the manipulators, that is decades overdue.
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The fact that it is a shīt-ass company like gamestop makes this all so much better.
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The fact that it is a shīt-ass company like gamestop makes this all so much better.
Yes ... but it had to a F'ed up pile of crap like GME. No one shorts 140% of the shares outstanding of a merely bad company.
(and Forgetful, you want to talk about manipulation and criminality. The short is greater than the shares outstanding. This is not legal. So, if you want to start jailing people over this mess, start with the banks and hedge funds that broke this law and set this up.)
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This sh!t does not work. And they are not scrapping WSB, so it is doubly a waste of time.
Wall Street is now a bunch of old men that don't get it and are shaking their fists at change. This is why Melvin Captial is effectively gone, Citron is done, and Citadel/Point72 has lost billions in the last two days.
Sit back and watch, this is going to get epic.
What are you even talking about? Plotkin who runs Melvin Capital is 40. Left is in his late 40s. This was overly aggressive asymmetric short bets that blew up, not stock revolution.
Not a bunch of old dinosaurs outsmarted by reckless dudes on Reddit dumping CC balances into RobinHood.
Citron is far from done, this hurt but they are notorious for bailing on positions early. LMAO if you think this is anything by an unpleasant blip for Citadel.
Market is history is LITTERED with random stock skyrockets and squeezes without true fundamental justification. NKLA and TLRY did it in the last few years alone. And sometimes a fund or two gets blown out in the process. Leverage is a biatch. But that doesn’t mean as a result the ENTIRE market will change.
Not everyone can be flawless and generationally wealthy from shorting AAPL like you.
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I must admit that I am unfortunately somewhat ignorant on a lot of investing issues. A fair amount of the recent posts on the GME issue and others might as well have been written in a foreign language, as far as I'm concerned. I've learned some over the past couple years, and am learning more...but it's just not something that I really know much about.
All that said, this GME thing is fascinating. I just checked and it's now at $350. In trying to understand more about what is going on, I'm learning bits and pieces. The people over on that reddit page are insane -- although that's not unique to this particular situation. The funniest thing I read over there, in response to "what stock is next" was, "[Declining to identify a 'next' stock]...at the moment the consensus is that we can make a boatload of money off of dumbass hedge funds, but think of it less like a pack of draft horses following a path and more like a room of angry, crapting monkeys who happen, for the time being, to be throwing their crap in the same direction."
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I must admit that I am unfortunately somewhat ignorant on a lot of investing issues. A fair amount of the recent posts on the GME issue and others might as well have been written in a foreign language, as far as I'm concerned. I've learned some over the past couple years, and am learning more...but it's just not something that I really know much about.
All that said, this GME thing is fascinating. I just checked and it's now at $350. In trying to understand more about what is going on, I'm learning bits and pieces. The people over on that reddit page are insane -- although that's not unique to this particular situation. The funniest thing I read over there, in response to "what stock is next" was, "[Declining to identify a 'next' stock]...at the moment the consensus is that we can make a boatload of money off of dumbass hedge funds, but think of it less like a pack of draft horses following a path and more like a room of angry, crapting monkeys who happen, for the time being, to be throwing their crap in the same direction."
BINGO. This is is largely a community of reckless degenerates. Not a coordinated skilled group of renegade amateur traders. It’s still pretty incredible to watch in real time
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BINGO. This is is largely a community of reckless degenerates. Not a coordinated skilled group of renegade amateur traders. It’s still pretty incredible to watch in real time
And the thing is, the bubble is going to pop, they always do, and some of these "reckless degenerates" are going to lose a lot of money in the process.
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BINGO. This is is largely a community of reckless degenerates. Not a coordinated skilled group of renegade amateur traders. It’s still pretty incredible to watch in real time
Yeah, that was the money quote that caught my attention. I put the remainder in just for a little context.
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From Seeking Alpha:
The stock market is seeing a huge amount of buying action in stocks that have been heavily shorted over the last few months.
Tootsie Roll Industries (NYSE:TR) is up 52.95% in early trading.
Dillard's (NYSE:DDS) is 22.1% higher.
Express (NYSE:EXPR) is adding to its gains with a jump today of 123.68%.
National Beverage (NASDAQ:FIZZ) is soaring with a 39.05% jump already.
iRobot (NASDAQ:IRBT) is 33.85% higher to carve out a new 52-week high of $175.35.
Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) is 4.25% higher and is now up 34% over the last five sessions.
PetMed Express (NASDAQ:PETS) is flying with a 28.87% gain and printed a new high of $51.15.
GSX Techedu (NYSE:GSX) blasted 33.89% higher to reach a new high.
Tanger Factgory Outlet Centers (NYSE:SKT) is up 24.72% as shorts are being pressured.
New to the scene is DoorDash (NYSE:DASH), which is up 17.17%. DASH has a higher level of short interest than most IPO stocks in their first year of trading.
Fossil (NASDAQ:FOSL) is showing a gain of 26.48% to trade as high as $16.00.
Macy's (NYSE:M) is 17.85% higher as the heavily-shorted mall name sails on heavy volume.
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Also, Blockbuster!
"The adventure for GameStop has inexplicably also drawn interest in a company called BB Liquidating Inc. (OTCPK:BLIAQ) almost out of nowhere.
BB Liquidating Inc. rose 774% yesterday on a strong volume move compared to normal activity.
BB Liquidating is the company that is the last remnants of the Blockbuster video chain, which had over 9K stores at its peak and is a test case in how fast a retail chain can go obsolete."
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LMAO, BofA raised their price target on Gamestop from $1.60 to $10.
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This is so captivating, I'm not getting involved, but I can't stop watching.
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This is so captivating, I'm not getting involved, but I can't stop watching.
That's where I am. There is a part of me that would like to purchase a share or two -- just because it is so captivating and it's possible to be a part of it -- but ultimately I'm content to just sit on the sidelines and watch it play out.
I am curious, however, how one finds out which stocks "have been heavily shorted over the last few months."
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That's where I am. There is a part of me that would like to purchase a share or two -- just because it is so captivating and it's possible to be a part of it -- but ultimately I'm content to just sit on the sidelines and watch it play out.
I am curious, however, how one finds out which stocks "have been heavily shorted over the last few months."
There's a couple of sites that track this, but as of this morning, GME still had 140% of shares outstanding shorted.
https://www.highshortinterest.com/
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nm. unnecessarily close to the political line considering how fun this is.
Question - are the short sellers facing huge margin calls on this? Or are they so big that their margin maintenance is probably fine even with stock price skyrocketing?
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I can’t wrap my head around it anymore. I’m too gun shy to get in. Thought about Express yesterday at $3.50, now it’s at $12.
Feels like when this bubble pops, it’s going to explode. I enjoy watching it, but just can’t comprehend it enough to try to get lucky here.
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That's where I am. There is a part of me that would like to purchase a share or two -- just because it is so captivating and it's possible to be a part of it -- but ultimately I'm content to just sit on the sidelines and watch it play out.
I enjoy watching it, but just can’t comprehend it enough to try to get lucky here.
So this is the way to look at it, right? Once regular folks like us get involved who profess to care about making money, the whole thing runs out of steam. What is fueling this is that the WSB folks are economically irrational actors.
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So this is the way to look at it, right? Once regular folks like us get involved who profess to care about making money, the whole thing runs out of steam. What is fueling this is that the WSB folks are economically irrational actors.
Yep. That’s why I reacted strongly to the idea that these guys are killing Wall Street and changing things forever. You have guys who are blindly holding calls and shares thinking it will never end. It’s the same idea as “HODL” in Bitcoin when people bought high and got obliterated cause they assumed it would go to $100K right away and never end.
I have no issue with it being “gambling” or any other things that rile up traditional investors, but these are not savvy sophisticated traders, they will get wrecked like anyone who gets brash and reckless in the market.
Like I said earlier, the premiums on GME show it. The cost of March/April $50 puts are the same this morning as yesterday when the stock was at $150, the reaction to prevent big sums being made either way is already happening.
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There's a couple of sites that track this, but as of this morning, GME still had 140% of shares outstanding shorted.
https://www.highshortinterest.com/
I mean, GME *should* be highly shorted right now. Share price is going to plummet. But can you survive the margin calls...
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Who is tomorrow's play? That's the real question.
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BINGO. This is is largely a community of reckless degenerates. Not a coordinated skilled group of renegade amateur traders. It’s still pretty incredible to watch in real time
I'm not sure reckless degenerates is accurate. Having read through these forums there is a good level of knowledge among a decent-sized faction.
Sure there are hangers on and Investing Bros and some (not all) people will get stung but the motivation for a lot of these people seems to be the Great Recession. They think this is small way to punch back at people who had an enormous impact on their adolescence and young adulthood.
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I'm not sure reckless degenerates is accurate. Having read through these forums there is a good level of knowledge among a decent-sized faction.
Sure there are hangers on and Investing Bros and some (not all) people will get stung but the motivation for a lot of these people seems to be the Great Recession. They think this is small way to punch back at people who had an enormous impact on their adolescence and young adulthood.
There are more people participating in WSB and in this gold rush who don’t know what margin is or get confused that their call is losing money even though the stock is going up, than people who think this is a clever way to get back at “the man”.
And plenty of people can have knowledge of markets and still be reckless degens. I can know tons about sports betting but still bet ridiculous 6 team parlays chasing big riches or live bet huge odds trying to get lucky. Same as people who are buying and holding calls on stocks that are insanely overextended. For every person in there that got GME calls in the 20s and held on. There are people buying calls $100 out of the money for insane premiums thinking it will run to $500/700/1000. That forum is LITTERED with people using CC money and other insanely dumb money moves to try to buy into these market runs. I don’t care how knowledgeable they are, that’s prime bubble behavior and far far more likely to get utterly wiped out than change the financial world
I agree that you shouldn’t be able to short a stock to 140% short interest and funds overly loading the boat on these types of positions get what they deserve.
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A fair amount of the recent posts on the GME issue and others might as well have been written in a foreign language, as far as I'm concerned.
Like I said earlier, the premiums on GME show it. The cost of March/April $50 puts are the same this morning as yesterday when the stock was at $150, the reaction to prevent big sums being made either way is already happening.
Case in point. I know that people don't post on a thread like this to explain things to the dumbest guy in the room (i.e., me) but I have no idea what this means. I'm curious, and would appreciate an explanation, but won't think any less of you if you're not interested in spoon feeding the village idiot.
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There are more people participating in WSB and in this gold rush who don’t know what margin is or get confused that their call is losing money even though the stock is going up, people who think this is a clever way to get back at “the man”.
And plenty of people can have knowledge of markets and still be reckless degens. I can know tons about sports betting but still bet ridiculous 6 team parlays chasing big riches or live bet huge odds trying to get lucky. Same as people who are buying and holding calls on stocks that are insanely overextended. For every person in there that got GME calls in the 20s and held on. There are people buying calls $100 out of the money for insane premiums thinking it will run to $500/700/1000. That forum is LITTERED with people using CC money and other insanely dumb money moves to try to buy into these market runs. I don’t care how knowledgeable they are, that’s prime bubble behavior and far far more likely to get utterly wiped out than change the financial world
I agree that you shouldn’t be able to short a stock to 140% short interest and funds overly loading the boat on these types of positions get what they deserve.
There are plenty of people over there who think it will be $1000 by the end of the week and that $5000 is possible before it's over. Or at least that's what they're saying. I'm not sure they really believe it as much as they are trying to encourage people to hold and keep stickin' it to the man.
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What a highly entertaining couple of days. Love to see hedges get rekt.
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There are more people participating in WSB and in this gold rush who don’t know what margin is or get confused that their call is losing money even though the stock is going up, people who think this is a clever way to get back at “the man”.
And plenty of people can have knowledge of markets and still be reckless degens. I can know tons about sports betting but still bet ridiculous 6 team parlays chasing big riches or live bet huge odds trying to get lucky. Same as people who are buying and holding calls on stocks that are insanely overextended. For every person in there that got GME calls in the 20s and held on. There are people buying calls $100 out of the money for insane premiums thinking it will run to $500/700/1000. That forum is LITTERED with people using CC money and other insanely dumb money moves to try to buy into these market runs. I don’t care how knowledgeable they are, that’s prime bubble behavior and far far more likely to get utterly wiped out than change the financial world
I agree that you shouldn’t be able to short a stock to 140% short interest and funds overly loading the boat on these types of positions get what they deserve.
Quite frankly, I don't think this has much of anything to do with sound investment strategy. That's why I don't think the majority are reckless nor degenerate. They're unnatural carnal knowledgeing with people. They're trolls. They're bored. They think it's just a game because that's all they've seen over the last 10-15 years.
This is more of a philosophical kerfuffle than having to do with financial investment. The elites in the financial world will spend the next week huffing and puffing their ego to put these people back in their hole. It will be totally forgotten by Washington's & Lincoln's Birthday.
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Case in point. I know that people don't post on a thread like this to explain things to the dumbest guy in the room (i.e., me) but I have no idea what this means. I'm curious, and would appreciate an explanation, but won't think any less of you if you're not interested in spoon feeding the village idiot.
So basically an option gives the owner the "option" to buy a block of shares (1 contract=100 shares) at the strike price at the expiration date. At its very basic, you need the option to be "in the money" or ITM, by the amount you paid for it, to break even. So if you bought a GME $50 call for $5, it would need to be at least $55 at expiration to break even, alternatively if you bought a $50 put for $5, it would need to be at $45. But there is tons of volatility within stock prices, so there is "premium" built in. So that $50 call option might cost $10 even though the underlying stock price is $40 to reflect the movement and volatility in the stock causing it to easily surpass that strike price by expiration. Thats where the money is made.
If you want to look at prices and premiums even more simply, you can look at their movement as "odds" of sorts.
What I was referencing was the price for a $50P, 2 months out, was more or less the same yesterday when the stock was near $125, as it was today over $300. You needed GME to
drop around $75 to get your options close to ITM, but now, paying the same price, it needs to drop $250. It was pricey and not great value yesterday, today its even worse and a flashing red "stay away".
There is plenty of other factors and variables like time decay and such, but i hope that helped a bit.
There are plenty of people over there who think it will be $1000 by the end of the week and that $5000 is possible before it's over. Or at least that's what they're saying. I'm not sure they really believe it as much as they are trying to encourage people to hold and keep stickin' it to the man.
Sure, but thats also to my point of people really having no idea. Its a lot of hopium. At a certain point, large amounts of profit taking will occur, and then momentum will start to wane.
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Quite frankly, I don't think this has much of anything to do with sound investment strategy. That's why I don't think the majority are reckless nor degenerate. They're unnatural carnal knowledgeing with people. They're trolls. They're bored. They think it's just a game because that's all they've seen over the last 10-15 years.
This is more of a philosophical kerfuffle than having to do with financial investment. The elites in the financial world will spend the next week huffing and puffing their ego to put these people back in their hole. It will be totally forgotten by Washington's & Lincoln's Birthday.
Agree to disagree. Ive followed WSB for a long time, one of my buddies reads it daily. Absent the last 2 weeks, that place is the type to throw tons of money at rumors and speculation, and always chase the quick buck. I don't know how you can read it and think the majority are a bunch of clever trolls and not degen gamblers.
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Agree to disagree. Ive followed WSB for a long time, one of my buddies reads it daily. Absent the last 2 weeks, that place is the type to throw tons of money at rumors and speculation, and always chase the quick buck. I don't know how you can read it and think the majority are a bunch of clever trolls and not degen gamblers.
It's this. Historically, they're not a very successful group.
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I dipped my toe in last night with FU money. What I found interesting was when some stocks started to gain traction and double or even triple this morning, all the mobile platforms mysteriously shut down and TDAmeritrade instituted new rules on buying/selling the current hot stocks. Actually couldn’t sell when I wanted to, ended up fine.
The house always wins in gambling, and we ain’t the house.
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I’m taking a spin at the roulette wheel on NOK. Just placed an order for a few hundred shares.
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I’m taking a spin at the roulette wheel on NOK. Just placed an order for a few hundred shares.
Same. Cashed in on BB and AMC earlier today and then jumped back in a little. Up quite a bit on GNUS as well. Had NAKD in my watchlist for months but didn’t jump on that train.
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For transparency’s sake, I got NOK at $7.35.
The last time I owned NOK was 2000, crazy here we are 21 years later.
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$6.88
All that’s old is new again.
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$6.88
All that’s old is new again.
I'm gonna get me some AOL stock.
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I'm gonna get me some AOL stock.
Amazing!
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I dipped my toe in last night with FU money. What I found interesting was when some stocks started to gain traction and double or even triple this morning, all the mobile platforms mysteriously shut down and TDAmeritrade instituted new rules on buying/selling the current hot stocks. Actually couldn’t sell when I wanted to, ended up fine.
The house always wins in gambling, and we ain’t the house.
It’s not that they mysteriously shut down, the brokerage houses are just terrible at handling high retail volume. Historically, any time there has been a huge gap down or gap up in the morning, TDA or Schwab or Fidelity get totally gummed up. This even happened when they still had commissions in place, where they WANTED you to trade and sell, cause it made them money.
As for the new rules, that feels like CYA. Cause when people get mauled by GME losing a few hundred points or something like that with some of these crazy names, they are quick to blame the broker. Like the guy who committed suicide over a Robinhood trade, people wanted to string the brokerage up for “allowing” it.
I don’t want to defend the majority of online brokers cause they suck pretty hard, but most of this is just them sucking and not something more nefarious
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It’s not that they mysteriously shut down, the brokerage houses are just terrible at handling high retail volume. Historically, any time there has been a huge gap down or gap up in the morning, TDA or Schwab or Fidelity get totally gummed up. This even happened when they still had commissions in place, where they WANTED you to trade and sell, cause it made them money.
As for the new rules, that feels like CYA. Cause when people get mauled by GME losing a few hundred points or something like that with some of these crazy names, they are quick to blame the broker. Like the guy who committed suicide over a Robinhood trade, people wanted to string the brokerage up for “allowing” it.
I don’t want to defend the majority of online brokers cause they suck pretty hard, but most of this is just them sucking and not something more nefarious
My use of mysteriously was absolutely sarcasm. I completely agree.
EDIT: Although, it is interesting to listen to the different motivations and arguments people have over who is responsible for all this. It is also interesting to hear media call Reddit posters the manipulators, Reddit call the hedge fund guys the manipulators, etc. It’s all manipulation. Won’t say more and wade into politics and policy.
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I'm gonna get me some AOL stock.
Hey, if the Blockbuster liquidation company can jump 700%+, why not?
After my brief and slightly profitable foray with GME puts yesterday, I've resisted the temptation so far today. As I said, it doesn't even feel like day trading, it feels like putting money on Red and spinning the roulette wheel.
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NAKD
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Case in point. I know that people don't post on a thread like this to explain things to the dumbest guy in the room (i.e., me) but I have no idea what this means. I'm curious, and would appreciate an explanation, but won't think any less of you if you're not interested in spoon feeding the village idiot.
JWags provided an explanation above, but to add to this...what should happen is that the value of your options move in correlation to the price of the underlying stock. That is, the value of a call option should go up if the stock price goes up while the value of a put goes down. And conversely, if the price of the stock goes down, the value of the call also goes down while the value of the put goes up.
With respect to Gamestop, in addition to the premiums you have to pay to purchase the option being completely out of whack as he stated, the price movement itself is not following the basic rule above. The option prices have become somewhat decoupled from the underlying stock, due, I presume, to the massive demand to use options both as hedges and as part of the overall strategy to punish the shortsellers.
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Can someone explain why someone can't just short GME at this point and wait 6 months? Is that not allowed to wait so long?
Naive to the nuances of shorting, and calls vs. puts.
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If you side with the billionaire hedge funds or criticize the retail/reddit investors in this situation, you're pretty trash.
I sure hope all the talking heads on CNBC get their way and we get more regulation to protect the billionaires.
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Here's a new one ...
I'm sitting in my office, checking on my investments, reading email, playing on Scoop, etc, and I notice a new email comes in from my one of my brokerages (Schwab) confirming a buy I made ...
... except I never made the effen buy!
It was for a small buy of Broadcom (AVGO), a company I am familiar with but not one that I own (or want to own at its current price).
So I checked my Schwab account and, sure enough, the damn shares of AVGO are in there.
It's been a crazy couple of days, so the lines are jammed. I waited on hold for more than an hour and finally got ahold of somebody. When I told her what happened, she put me on hold to talk to the trading desk. I was on hold for another 20 minutes.
Finally, she comes back and says, "As you probably know, we had some issues today. The site was down for awhile, and there is all kinds of craziness going on in the market. Somehow, some trades got placed in accounts that didn't place them, and this was one of them. I really apologize. Don't worry, it will just disappear from your account, hopefully today but if not by tomorrow. There will be no tax implications or anything else. Sorry about this again."
It's all good now that I know it will be settled, and as I said it wasn't for that many shares. But I mean ... what if it had been some kind of bogus $100K buy. It's a little unsettling, to say the least.
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Can someone explain why someone can't just short GME at this point and wait 6 months? Is that not allowed to wait so long?
Naive to the nuances of shorting, and calls vs. puts.
The premium charged to buy a put right now on GME is INSANE. You need deep pockets to even think about it... and because the premium is so high, it's eating into the eventual profit margin when the bubble bursts. So people are, rightully saying, why spend that much money for such a (comparatively) small gain?
And for just naked shorting the thing... well... deep pockets again because brokers aren't going to just let you smile and whistle while the thing keeps getting squeezed to the moon. Why else do you think the Andrew Left's of the world are covering? If they could whistle their way along, they would... and if they can't, then we can't.
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What's more likely:
Bailouts of hedge funds negatively affected here?
Or
Government regulation cracking down on individual trading so that licensed funds/brokers are the only ones who can buy/sell stocks?
Or
Both?
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The premium charged to buy a put right now on GME is INSANE. You need deep pockets to even think about it... and because the premium is so high, it's eating into the eventual profit margin when the bubble bursts. So people are, rightully saying, why spend that much money for such a (comparatively) small gain?
And for just naked shorting the thing... well... deep pockets again because brokers aren't going to just let you smile and whistle while the thing keeps getting squeezed to the moon. Why else do you think the Andrew Left's of the world are covering? If they could whistle their way along, they would... and if they can't, then we can't.
Right, like I mentioned, you could get $40P for like $5, have the stock plunge $300 to $35, and depending on how fast that happens, make almost nothing. The risk reward is terrible on puts right now.
As for shares, there is a also a borrow cost for shares. On very highly demanded stocks, such as GME right now, that can be 20-25%. So say you short, $10000, that’s $2000-2500 a year, so $1000-1250 over that 6 month period. And that’s not counting margin interest as many short positions are 50% equity and 50% margin from the broker. It’s not just a pure “I’ll go short $10K and wait”
What's more likely:
Bailouts of hedge funds negatively affected here?
Or
Government regulation cracking down on individual trading so that licensed funds/brokers are the only ones who can buy/sell stocks?
Or
Both?
Neither. Why would a hedge fund get bailed out? It’s not a bank or a core industry. And it’s not like they were the victim of an industry wide shellacking. Funds make bad bets and blow out ALLLL the time. The destruction of the XIV crushed a bunch a few years ago.
And why would they kill retail? There is too much money in retail stock trading for that. From market liquidity, to companies, to brokerage business, etc... that would never happen, the street wouldn’t want it.
This is all crazy and it will certainly be talked about in finance classes in the future, but don’t reach to make this something bigger than it is. Things will return to normal and by spring it will be a memory. Markets have been chaotic and prone to black swans for all of their history, this is nowhere near big enough to even broach the topic of regulations or bailouts.
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The premium charged to buy a put right now on GME is INSANE. You need deep pockets to even think about it... and because the premium is so high, it's eating into the eventual profit margin when the bubble bursts. So people are, rightully saying, why spend that much money for such a (comparatively) small gain?
And for just naked shorting the thing... well... deep pockets again because brokers aren't going to just let you smile and whistle while the thing keeps getting squeezed to the moon. Why else do you think the Andrew Left's of the world are covering? If they could whistle their way along, they would... and if they can't, then we can't.
Right, like I mentioned, you could get $40P for like $5, have the stock plunge $300 to $35, and depending on how fast that happens, make almost nothing. The risk reward is terrible on puts right now.
As for shares, there is a also a borrow cost for shares. On very highly demanded stocks, such as GME right now, that can be 20-25%. So say you short, $10000, that’s $2000-2500 a year, so $1000-1250 over that 6 month period. And that’s not counting margin interest as many short positions are 50% equity and 50% margin from the broker. It’s not just a pure “I’ll go short $10K and wait”
Thanks and thanks. The borrow cost makes a lot of sense. I was wondering why someone couldn't just short 10 shares (right now cost of $3500) likely will be back to $10 a share in 6-12 months. That would be a net profit of $3400. Even if it went up to $1000 a share, that only puts someone at $10k to cover without needing margin.
But if you are paying a 20-25% per year fee to hold onto that position, the benefit quickly evaporates as you have to wait it out.
Appreciate the info. There is a reason why I stick to long positions.
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Right, like I mentioned, you could get $40P for like $5, have the stock plunge $300 to $35, and depending on how fast that happens, make almost nothing. The risk reward is terrible on puts right now.
As for shares, there is a also a borrow cost for shares. On very highly demanded stocks, such as GME right now, that can be 20-25%. So say you short, $10000, that’s $2000-2500 a year, so $1000-1250 over that 6 month period. And that’s not counting margin interest as many short positions are 50% equity and 50% margin from the broker. It’s not just a pure “I’ll go short $10K and wait”
Neither. Why would a hedge fund get bailed out? It’s not a bank or a core industry. And it’s not like they were the victim of an industry wide shellacking. Funds make bad bets and blow out ALLLL the time. The destruction of the XIV crushed a bunch a few years ago.
And why would they kill retail? There is too much money in retail stock trading for that. From market liquidity, to companies, to brokerage business, etc... that would never happen, the street wouldn’t want it.
This is all crazy and it will certainly be talked about in finance classes in the future, but don’t reach to make this something bigger than it is. Things will return to normal and by spring it will be a memory. Markets have been chaotic and prone to black swans for all of their history, this is nowhere near big enough to even broach the topic of regulations or bailouts.
Did you see the interview with the head of NASDAQ today?
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Did you see the interview with the head of NASDAQ today?
About trying to match social media activity to “unusual” trading or manipulation? That’s nothing new. Before Twitter and Reddit, people were pumping and dumping on stock message boards (the Yahoo Finance boards were VERY popular for it). I’m fairly plugged in to “FinTwit” which is just as adept at trying to spread rumors and do this sort of stuff. It’s VERYYY hard to enforce. The NASDAQ and SEC will certainly try, but it’s hardly a slam dunk.
And I saw nothing in her comments about preventing retail consumers from trading, or bailing out funds. And putting limiters on “extreme activity” isn’t the path to preventing only licensed people from buying and selling. It’s like pointing to the authorities cracking down and preventing high speed racing on highways as evidence that potentially only licensed chauffeurs and transportation professionals would be able to drive cars in the future.
EDIT: I forgot about the “let funds recalibrate” during halts in volatile names. I’d have to hear more, but again it’s still different than the scenarios you described. Also, don’t discount it being lip service to placate funds/investors/etc during this chaotic time that comes to nothing when everyone moves past this in a few weeks.
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With WSB being shut down, I wonder if tomorrow is going to be a gigantic eff you play on all the meme stocks. I think it’s going to be really interesting.
My brother works for E Trade, and he’s working 20 hour days. He said he’ll work until midnight, sleep in his home office, and get up at 4. He said they don’t have the staff to handle the insane volumes coming in.
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With WSB being shut down, I wonder if tomorrow is going to be a gigantic eff you play on all the meme stocks. I think it’s going to be really interesting.
My brother works for E Trade, and he’s working 20 hour days. He said he’ll work until midnight, sleep in his home office, and get up at 4. He said they don’t have the staff to handle the insane volumes coming in.
WSB isn't shut down. It went private for ~1hr
Edit: I wouldn't be surprised if the subreddit mods + Reddit admins were making a few changes. The GME threads have been bringing the Reddit back-end to its knees. They are on their 4th GME thread of the day now that the mods asked them to roll the thread over well before the 99999 comment limit. Now they're rolling over at 50k comments. Absolutely wild.
If GME's market cap is big enough to make the S&P500 criteria, now they just need a few profitable quarters in a row... lol
Edit 2: Looks like the WSP Discord server got brigaded and banned for hate speech. Online communities are tough to wrangle sometimes. They should pay for better moderators like we do here at MUScoop
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WSB isn't shut down. It went private for ~1hr
Edit: I wouldn't be surprised if the subreddit mods + Reddit admins were making a few changes. The GME threads have been bringing the Reddit back-end to its knees. They are on their 4th GME thread of the day now that the mods asked them to roll the thread over well before the 99999 comment limit. Now they're rolling over at 50k comments. Absolutely wild.
If GME's market cap is big enough to make the S&P500 criteria, now they just need a few profitable quarters in a row... lol
Edit 2: Looks like the WSP Discord server got brigaded and banned for hate speech. Online communities are tough to wrangle sometimes. They should pay for better moderators like we do here at MUScoop
That’s not surprising. During the run the last few months, they referred to anything short or not bullish as (rainbow emoji)(bear emoji), you can figure out the super juvenile meaning
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Congrats to the Koss family. Helluva of a day for a MKE family. Sadly, the $165 million today might be very short lived. I hope they could sell whatever they could without the SEC filing probably needed for the big score.
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About trying to match social media activity to “unusual” trading or manipulation? That’s nothing new. Before Twitter and Reddit, people were pumping and dumping on stock message boards (the Yahoo Finance boards were VERY popular for it). I’m fairly plugged in to “FinTwit” which is just as adept at trying to spread rumors and do this sort of stuff. It’s VERYYY hard to enforce. The NASDAQ and SEC will certainly try, but it’s hardly a slam dunk.
And I saw nothing in her comments about preventing retail consumers from trading, or bailing out funds. And putting limiters on “extreme activity” isn’t the path to preventing only licensed people from buying and selling. It’s like pointing to the authorities cracking down and preventing high speed racing on highways as evidence that potentially only licensed chauffeurs and transportation professionals would be able to drive cars in the future.
EDIT: I forgot about the “let funds recalibrate” during halts in volatile names. I’d have to hear more, but again it’s still different than the scenarios you described. Also, don’t discount it being lip service to placate funds/investors/etc during this chaotic time that comes to nothing when everyone moves past this in a few weeks.
Again, I'm not very knowledgeable in all this, and largely reciting what others that do this for a living tell me, but I don't know how you make what they are doing illegal. Is it manipulating stock prices? yes?
But the strategies many hedge funds use, and the algorithms driving their trades are designed to manipulate stock prices in some cases.
So, if you make it illegal for a group of strangers to chat about doing a gamma squeeze, how do you not make it illegal for people to pool their money together into a hedge fund to get leverage to do the same.
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Any of you make enough the last few days to foot Wojo’s buyout?
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About trying to match social media activity to “unusual” trading or manipulation? That’s nothing new. Before Twitter and Reddit, people were pumping and dumping on stock message boards (the Yahoo Finance boards were VERY popular for it). I’m fairly plugged in to “FinTwit” which is just as adept at trying to spread rumors and do this sort of stuff. It’s VERYYY hard to enforce. The NASDAQ and SEC will certainly try, but it’s hardly a slam dunk.
And I saw nothing in her comments about preventing retail consumers from trading, or bailing out funds. And putting limiters on “extreme activity” isn’t the path to preventing only licensed people from buying and selling. It’s like pointing to the authorities cracking down and preventing high speed racing on highways as evidence that potentially only licensed chauffeurs and transportation professionals would be able to drive cars in the future.
EDIT: I forgot about the “let funds recalibrate” during halts in volatile names. I’d have to hear more, but again it’s still different than the scenarios you described. Also, don’t discount it being lip service to placate funds/investors/etc during this chaotic time that comes to nothing when everyone moves past this in a few weeks.
"Working with regulators to control these types of situations"
That came out of her mouth.
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Again, I'm not very knowledgeable in all this, and largely reciting what others that do this for a living tell me, but I don't know how you make what they are doing illegal. Is it manipulating stock prices? yes?
But the strategies many hedge funds use, and the algorithms driving their trades are designed to manipulate stock prices in some cases.
So, if you make it illegal for a group of strangers to chat about doing a gamma squeeze, how do you not make it illegal for people to pool their money together into a hedge fund to get leverage to do the same.
The wealthy/rich/powerful can kinda do what they want.
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What are you even talking about? Plotkin who runs Melvin Capital is 40. Left is in his late 40s. This was overly aggressive asymmetric short bets that blew up, not stock revolution.
Not a bunch of old dinosaurs outsmarted by reckless dudes on Reddit dumping CC balances into RobinHood.
Citron is far from done, this hurt but they are notorious for bailing on positions early. LMAO if you think this is anything by an unpleasant blip for Citadel.
Market is history is LITTERED with random stock skyrockets and squeezes without true fundamental justification. NKLA and TLRY did it in the last few years alone. And sometimes a fund or two gets blown out in the process. Leverage is a biatch. But that doesn’t mean as a result the ENTIRE market will change.
Not everyone can be flawless and generationally wealthy from shorting AAPL like you.
Plotkin is down 100% YTD. He is a crappy manager. All managers that lose 100% of their client's money in three weeks and their firm are crappy.
You must work in the investing business. Because only a highly trained investment manager can think this pile of dog sh!t knows what he is going.
I'm not afraid of loss porn, apparently, you lack the confidence to do the same. Otherwise, show you have a pair and tell us about your worst trade.
And I'll go first again, I got smashed pretty good last year when oil went negative.
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The simple explanation of what has happened.
The hedge fund industry is a bunch of scum bags. They all collude with each other (which is illegal). They all colluded to short GameStop (again illegal ... they have to file with the SEC as a group when they collude, they never do).
The GameStop short position was over 140% of the number of shares outstanding. This is unbelievably illegal, it's called a naked short (selling shares without borrowing them). This is what caused the 1929 crash and the SEC was invented specifically to prevent this from happening again. It did (and has many times before). The SEC is terribly incompetent, and Biden is not going to change this. Everyone in the industry wants to SEC to stay this way.
Then the hedge funds that colluded to break the law in shorting more than 100% of the shares in GameStop, hired a useful idiot. In this case, it was Andrew Left of Citron (the other useful idiot is Carson Block of Muddy Waters). With their big short established, Citron's job was to write reports and bad-mouth GameStop, too drive it into bankruptcy. This way the 140% short would be fabulously profitable and Aspen real Estate would jump even higher.
Citron is well paid by the colluders to help with the lawbreaking, none of this is ever disclosed (which is also against the law).
Now, if the scum bags hedge funds were honest, they would see a poor positioning by dummies like Gabe Plotkin of Melvin Capital. They were vulnerable to a massive short squeeze. But would Citadel, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, D1 Capital, Point72 (take your pick) actually try and profit by squeezing this short position? No, they are all colluding together on this. And if an outside hedge fund tried to squeezee, they would shut them down.
Now over on Reddit's Wall Street Bets, there are some really smart people, much smarter than the people colluding. They saw this squeeze vulnerability. They perfectly laid out the case on a public forum (not illegal). They explained when they get them on the run, there would be a big short squeeze sending the shares soaring (again not illegal). And when the shares soared, the company would be able to sell shares at higher prices and improve their financial position, which they did today (63 million shares sold to raise $304 million). And with Ryan Cohen from chewy.com now running GameStop, he would be smart enough to use this capital to remake the company thus increasing its value. In other words, retail investors on WSB got it right. The highly paid scum bags got it wrong.
The real problem here is the wrong people made money. And they cost the "right people" money. This is not acceptable. So Scott Wapner and other morons on CNBC were whining and moaning on behalf of the billionaire's that lost money to retail investors that this is dangerous and needs to be regulated. It was sickening to watch CNBC today.
Citadel and Point72 (Steve Choen, now owner of the NY Mets) bailed out Melvin by injecting $2.75 billion on Monday. The problem is that was not enough, this money is gone and now Citadel and Point 72 are at a loss.
* After the close, Point72 announced it lost 10% to 15% this month. Restated, they lost one-sixth of their money since Monday.
MU82, I may be smuggles (if you're reading this), but Cohen makes me look reserve. This guy, with 10 followers tweet this yesterday afternoon at Cohen ... @NickConti96 Hold $GME until @SteveACohen2 has to sell the Mets.
Then smug Billionaire Mets Owner tweeted this @StevenACohen2 Rough crowd on Twitter tonight, Hey stock jockeys keep bringing it.
This guy is the real smuggles! I'm just a scoop pretender.
The "stock jockeys" did keep bringing it, they doubled their money today and Cohen lost over $1 billion. Citadel's Ken Griffin lost a lot more. Arguably today was one of the worst single days in the career of Cohen and Griffin. Monday was that day for Plotkin.
Wall Street Bets now has 3.3 million followers and collectively, they are the most powerful force on Wall Street. They are using this force to "stick it" to billionaires like Cohen, Plotkin, and Griffin. These guys have been reduced to angry old men shaking their fists as the world is passing them by. The only way they know how to make money is by stealing it and lawbreaking. They have done it so long, they think they have a right to continue to do it, without any question or interference.
Earlier tonight they got to the server company that host Wall Street Bets called Discord. They shut down Wall Street bets and Discord issued a press release explaining why, using the tech industry's new excuse ... Today, we decided to remove the server and its owner (the Reddit forum Wall Street Bets) from Discord for continuing to allow hateful and discriminatory content after repeated warnings.
Three weeks ago Trump's tweets were hate speech. Today anything that causes billionaires to lose money is also hate speech and must be stopped.
Wall Street bets have more power than the 74 million people that voted for Trump. Because 90 minutes after they shut them down, they screamed so loud that Discord reversed this decision and Wall Street Bets was back online.
So, yes the regulators need to crack down on lawbreaking here. They can start by arresting Gabe Plotkin for fraud. All the lawbreaking was by the hedge funds and their cronies at the prime brokers and the banks. They were so sloppy with their rulebreaking that it was obvious for anyone to see how to screw them. Since everyone on Wall Street is in bed with each other, no one would take them on. So, retail banded together and stuck them really good.
Happy to answer questions.
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Plotkin is down 100% YTD. He is a crappy manager. All managers that lose 100% of their client's money in three weeks and their firm are crappy.
You must work in the investing business. Because only a highly trained investment manager can think this pile of dog sh!t knows what he is going.
I'm not afraid of loss porn, apparently, you lack the confidence to do the same. Otherwise, show you have a pair and tell us about your worst trade.
And I'll go first again, I got smashed pretty good last year when oil went negative.
Not in the investing business at all. The difference is I don’t come here acting like I know everything and brag about my sure fire positions. Keep attacking me and my supposed lack of cajones. I’ve lost plenty constantly. I lost well over $25K when I began trying to learn option trading and when I got on the wrong side of some biotech plays in a rough 3 year stretch.
But again, you litter good insight with absurd and over-reaching hubris and absurdity. Now the denizens of WSB are “much smarter” than Steve Cohen and Ken Griffin? Lmao, good one. The majority of WSB are perennial losers. Like I said, GME was a perfect storm that started with Michael Bury and Ryan Cohen getting involved, well before WSB had anything to do with it recently.
But go ahead, I’d recommend following everything WSB does, maybe offer to start a fund and pool money with them, I’m sure they will crush all those idiot dinosaurs at Citadel and Point72 who have lost their touch. StockGuy69 and his Reddit investment thesis portfolio will HODL and crush them.
Plotkin had a fund that is barely 5 years old and had a few hot years. Lumping him in with some of the most successful guys of the last 25 years to say they’ve all “lost it” is just classic Heisy bombastic nonsense
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But again, you litter good insight with absurd and over-reaching hubris and absurdity. Now the denizens of WSB are “much smarter” than Steve Cohen and Ken Griffin? Lmao, good one. The majority of WSB are perennial losers. Like I said, GME was a perfect storm that started with Michael Bury and Ryan Cohen getting involved, well before WSB had anything to do with it recently.
But go ahead, I’d recommend following everything WSB does, maybe offer to start a fund and pool money with them, I’m sure they will crush all those idiot dinosaurs at Citadel and Point72 who have lost their touch. StockGuy69 and his Reddit investment thesis portfolio will HODL and crush them.
Plotkin had a fund that is barely 5 years old and had a few hot years. Lumping him in with some of the most successful guys of the last 25 years to say they’ve all “lost it” is just classic Heisy bombastic nonsense
Do you know why Cohen's firm is Point72 (for the firm address 72 Steamboat Road, Greenwich)? Because he was forced out of the hedge fund business for two years, SAC (Steven A Cohen) Capital, by the SEC for too much lawbreaking. It was illegal for him to run other people's money again until 2018. Point72 was his family office (his own money) until 2018.
Yes, Cohen and Griffin have been successful because they steal it, and they are stealing in such a big way that no one will take them on.
Go ahead and stay with the thieves.
I think they will do to Cohen and Griffin what they did to Buffett after he sold his airlines last May, made him look like a complete idiot and cost him a ton of money (the airlines doubled in a month after Buffett sold them).
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Oh oh, Heisy. I know you are going to want to rethink your position seeing as you and AOC agree on this.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
@AOC
Gotta admit it’s really something to see Wall Streeters with a long history of treating our economy as a casino complain about a message board of posters also treating the market as a casino
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1354536220110577664
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I got up this morning and checked Robinhood and saw that GME was up at $475. Unbelievable.
I just checked it again...and it tells me something along the lines of, "This stock is not supported on this platform." It had that message because I had left it on GME when I left the App. When I search for GME on the App, it doesn't exist. WTF?
A quick trip over to WSB and they've obviously noticed this too. Apparently if you're holding GME in your account, you can sell it, but Robinhood won't let people buy GME any more.
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I got up this morning and checked Robinhood and saw that GME was up at $475. Unbelievable.
I just checked it again...and it tells me something along the lines of, "This stock is not supported on this platform." It had that message because I had left it on GME when I left the App. When I search for GME on the App, it doesn't exist. WTF?
A quick trip over to WSB and they've obviously noticed this too. Apparently if you're holding GME in your account, you can sell it, but Robinhood won't let people buy GME any more.
Apparently, Robinhood is blocking users from buying a lot of the stocks WSBs was targeting. GME, NOK, AMC, NAKD, ... etc.
Apparently, the hedge funds fight back dirty.
Wonder if that is really their move, or if it just a pre-market trading thing.
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I had to laugh at a photo caption in a Newsweek article about GME: "Mark Cuban cheered on 'the little guy' after small-dollar users of subreddit r/WallStreetBets drove up the stock price of GameStop, causing high-dollar investors to lose thousands in their plans to 'short-sale' the stock."
"Thousands"? Really? Wow. Those high-dollar investors must have shorted literally 10's of shares. While I still don't know what this will look like when the dust clears, the infusion of $2.75 billion into Melvin Capital suggests that maybe more than "thousands" are at issue here. And that was when the price was at $150; it's triple that now.
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I had to laugh at a photo caption in a Newsweek article about GME: "Mark Cuban cheered on 'the little guy' after small-dollar users of subreddit r/WallStreetBets drove up the stock price of GameStop, causing high-dollar investors to lose thousands in their plans to 'short-sale' the stock."
"Thousands"? Really? Wow. Those high-dollar investors must have shorted literally 10's of shares. While I still don't know what this will look like when the dust clears, the infusion of $2.75 billion into Melvin Capital suggests that maybe more than "thousands" are at issue here. And that was when the price was at $150; it's triple that now.
It is interesting to watch how the media covers it. The talking heads are pissed, act as if this is the most terrible, illegal thing to happen to the market. Others ignore it as if it isn't happening and refuse to highlight the loses some hedge funds have had as a result of it.
Brokerage companies now blocking users from buying the stocks in play by WSBs.
**puts on tinfoil hat**
Seems like the powers that be are really afraid that the little guys, may upset the apple cart and disrupt their cash flow.
The moves and media stance right now seem to suggest a power play, to block stock purchases (only allow one to sell) to force the stock to plummet back down. Watch the media talk about how much money these little investors suffered as a result, but hide the fact that being was blocked. The way to return things back to hedge fund control.
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It's really too bad that the rich don't want to play by the rules of the game that they've written. But it isn't surprising. Usually this sort of thing happens when the big boys gang up on each other... but now that little guys organize its a problem. It's almost as if the super rich don't want anyone to organize. Hmmmm...
We're truly living in the second gilded age.
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It's really too bad that the rich don't want to play by the rules of the game that they've written. But it isn't surprising. Usually this sort of thing happens when the big boys gang up on each other... but now that little guys organize its a problem. It's almost as if the super rich don't want anyone to organize. Hmmmm...
We're truly living in the second gilded age.
Yep. And absolutely bought off, ineffectual political class, and a business class that largely sets the rules to benefit themselves.
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I am aware that correlation =/= causation, but I do note that at the time Robinhood made the change GME was at $450ish (I checked) and it dropped significantly right after. It opened at $266 just an hour later. It's be interesting to see what happens when all the "retail" traders can start buying again.
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Yep. And absolutely bought off, ineffectual political class, and a business class that largely sets the rules to benefit themselves.
It still baffles me that any "little guys" side with the rich/business class despite it being against their own self-interest.
We have many on this board
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It still baffles me that any "little guys" side with the rich/business class despite it being against their own self-interest.
We have many on this board
Trouble is that they think they're in a class that they aren't.
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Reason #184748 why nobody should be using RobinHood. Nothing is ever free. They’ve been selling trade data to funds for them front-run forever, that’s how they make their money. No shock that they cater to whatever the funds want them to do. The fact that people still use it, after it was blacked out for WHOLE TRADING DAYS during market chaos last year, baffles me. Especially since all brokers are commission free more or less now
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This is all crazy and it will certainly be talked about in finance classes in the future, but don’t reach to make this something bigger than it is. Things will return to normal and by spring it will be a memory. Markets have been chaotic and prone to black swans for all of their history, this is nowhere near big enough to even broach the topic of regulations or bailouts.
+1,000. I would consider it a pretty meaningful win if looking back this holds up as a cautionary tale against the most ludicrous of concentrated short positions. As tends to be the case with this stuff, it only stands on a check against the most preposterous extremes - like a stock with 140% of its outstanding shares shorted. But hey, take a win where you can get it.
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Reason #184748 why nobody should be using RobinHood. Nothing is ever free. They’ve been selling trade data to funds for them front-run forever, that’s how they make their money. No shock that they cater to whatever the funds want them to do. The fact that people still use it, after it was blacked out for WHOLE TRADING DAYS during market chaos last year, baffles me. Especially since all brokers are commission free more or less now
Correct, and it is exactly why I stay away from 'free' online apps and services.
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Haircut time for a lot of folks. Guess we see who can manipulate more now.
I'd put my money on the billion dollar hedge funds.
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Haircut time for a lot of folks. Guess we see who can manipulate more now.
I'd put my money on the billion dollar hedge funds.
If information at WSB is to be believed (I'm on the fence on that one), the guy who seems to be given the credit for starting the entire thing cashed out somewhere in the neighborhood of $10-$12 million on Monday and Wednesday. As of yesterday afternoon he still had holdings valued at about $50 million, but he apparently did lock in some of his gains.
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If information at WSB is to be believed (I'm on the fence on that one), the guy who seems to be given the credit for starting the entire thing cashed out somewhere in the neighborhood of $10-$12 million on Monday and Wednesday. As of yesterday afternoon he still had holdings valued at about $50 million, but he apparently did lock in some of his gains.
He sold 200x 4/16 12c two days ago, and sold 300x more yesterday.
He still holds 500 4/16 12c, as well as 50k of the underlying at $14.something basis.
I would have sold a long time ago, not gonna lie
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He sold 200x 4/16 12c two days ago, and sold 300x more yesterday.
He still holds 500 4/16 12c, as well as 50k of the underlying at $14.something basis.
I would have sold a long time ago, not gonna lie
And that’s why these fools aren’t anything to fear long term. Beyond the fact that they should have been selling on the way up, or sold at euphoria levels, the anger today is that they can’t buy MORE. Not realizing that it’s a flashing sign that the jig is up.
Also, beyond RobinHood, decent side theory from a friend who used to run a fund. A lot of margin buying is being done in these names, by people who have no clue what or how to use margin, just that there is “MOAR BUYING POWER”, so when the musical chairs stop, and the stocks plummet, they won’t be able to cover the margin calls. So it’s a hedge against that.
It’s probably a combination of all of the above
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She's a good girl
Loves her mama,
Loves Jesus and America too,
She's a good girl,
Crazy about Elvis,
Loves horses and her boyfriend too.
*** Ok not anymore, bouncing back.
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And that’s why these fools aren’t anything to fear long term. Beyond the fact that they should have been selling on the way up, or sold at euphoria levels, the anger today is that they can’t buy MORE. Not realizing that it’s a flashing sign that the jig is up.
Also, beyond RobinHood, decent side theory from a friend who used to run a fund. A lot of margin buying is being done in these names, by people who have no clue what or how to use margin, just that there is “MOAR BUYING POWER”, so when the musical chairs stop, and the stocks plummet, they won’t be able to cover the margin calls. So it’s a hedge against that.
It’s probably a combination of all of the above
I've read that there isn't much volume movement, and that this is just HF adding more shorts....
anything to that?
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Class action suit filed with Southern District of NY against RobinHood.
Bi-partisan support among congressional members to investigate.
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More than half of all RH accounts own GME.
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I've read that there isn't much volume movement, and that this is just HF adding more shorts....
anything to that?
That and the waves of retail can’t buy more GME and keep it high. So any sell or short pressure will move it.
2 things are true for me.
1) it’s crappy that brokers and the people who control them, cause Robinhood and others sold out, change the rules on people.
2) HOWEVER, I have very little pity for anyone holding GME that’s complaining today. If you bought ANYTIME in the last 3 days, you had substantial profit this morning at the open, even with restrictions. You could have liquidated for profit yesterday, at the open, through the morning. People acting like they are being bled of their money are only complaining that they can’t buy more and keep it skyrocketing, like this was NEVER going to end and GME would be AMZN level prices.
It’s like people finding a flaw in a casino game, making money off it, then the casino finds out and eliminates the flaw, doesn’t take away the money you won or still have in play, just won’t let you exploit the flaw anymore and you risk any money still in play with the game like normal.
(I’m not siding with the brokers, especially not the scumbags at RH, just annoyed by people who know next to nothing about markets through a fuss about stuff they truly don’t understand)
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That and the waves of retail can’t buy more GME and keep it high. So any sell or short pressure will move it.
2 things are true for me.
1) it’s crappy that brokers and the people who control them, cause Robinhood and others sold out, change the rules on people.
2) HOWEVER, I have very little pity for anyone holding GME that’s complaining today. If you bought ANYTIME in the last 3 days, you had substantial profit this morning at the open, even with restrictions. You could have liquidated for profit yesterday, at the open, through the morning. People acting like they are being bled of their money are only complaining that they can’t buy more and keep it skyrocketing, like this was NEVER going to end and GME would be AMZN level prices.
It’s like people finding a flaw in a casino game, making money off it, then the casino finds out and eliminates the flaw, doesn’t take away the money you won or still have in play, just won’t let you exploit the flaw anymore and you risk any money still in play with the game like normal.
(I’m not siding with the brokers, especially not the scumbags at RH, just annoyed by people who know next to nothing about markets through a fuss about stuff they truly don’t understand)
The entire point of what WSB is doing is to destroy the HF shorts and force them to buy their shares at a crazy price. They want to buy more because they think they've got them over a barrel.
fwiw, I have nothing invested in this madness.
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The entire point of what WSB is doing is to destroy the HF shorts and force them to buy their shares at a crazy price. They want to buy more because they think they've got them over a barrel.
fwiw, I have nothing invested in this madness.
+1
I wouldn't be terribly surprised if GME hit $1k before next Wednesday
Edit: Fidelity was having uptime issues this AM because of the number of people creating accounts to move their cash over from Robinhood (and others). If nothing else comes from this, it'll be good that these risk takers end up at reputable brokerages. Hopefully they realize how long it takes to deposit/move their $
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The entire point of what WSB is doing is to destroy the HF shorts and force them to buy their shares at a crazy price. They want to buy more because they think they've got them over a barrel.
fwiw, I have nothing invested in this madness.
FWIW, neither do I, either long or short. But again, don’t confuse a couple ring leaders for the masses. The people that know what they are doing know that plan. But the vast majority of people screaming are just pissed cause this is preventing them from “getting rich” in their minds. As mentioned, some of the main drivers of this move are already out with profits. And from what I read, a couple of the bigger shorts had already covered. Even without this intervention, we were getting close to a point where late arrivers were lining up to get torched.
I just want this to be over so we don’t get a bunch of people terrible market takes every day from people in media that don’t know a call from a put. And so we don’t need to listen to that smug douchebag Chamath crow his hypocritical crap any longer.
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Reason #184748 why nobody should be using RobinHood. Nothing is ever free.
The second sentence is true ... but nowadays RH is not the only free trading platform. Indeed, just about all of them are now: Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, ETrade, etc, etc, etc.
Schwab was the first big one to eliminate commissions back in 2019 and, within a month or two, they all fell in line.
As for the stuff going on this week ... I watch it with bemusement and amusement. It is so foreign to how I invest that I'm but a spectator.
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People are upset that the other targets, like AMC, NOK, etc., were also froze on Robinhood and other apps. Those were the buy-low positions set for a big run up.
I don't have a financial stake in this short squeeze bubble, but it's interesting to watch.
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The second sentence is true ... but nowadays RH is not the only free trading platform. Indeed, just about all of them are now: Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, ETrade, etc, etc, etc.
Schwab was the first big one to eliminate commissions back in 2019 and, within a month or two, they all fell in line.
As for the stuff going on this week ... I watch it with bemusement and amusement. It is so foreign to how I invest that I'm but a spectator.
Right, but they still charge exchange fees or other things. An option trade may only .35 cents per contract as opposed to $9.99 plus .35 or whatnot like it used to be. RH has always been zero, period. Other brokerages are likely selling flow like RH now, but they also have other revenue streams. RH never has, their MO has always been selling flow and data. Which the majority of novices never understood and why they are shocked by this.
I don’t know a single person using Robinhood, beyond the punter with $250 in their account, who hasn’t had some sort of issues. My buddy transferred money in awhile ago...they held it for 23 days. And their customer service routinely just went “IDK, be patient”
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If I hear any more regarding the moral hazard of allowing retail investors to risk money and how they need protecting, I'll get physically ill.
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Privatize gains, socialize losses
https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1354600757660585984?s=19
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Right, but they still charge exchange fees or other things. An option trade may only .35 cents per contract as opposed to $9.99 plus .35 or whatnot like it used to be. RH has always been zero, period. Other brokerages are likely selling flow like RH now, but they also have other revenue streams. RH never has, their MO has always been selling flow and data. Which the majority of novices never understood and why they are shocked by this.
I don’t know a single person using Robinhood, beyond the punter with $250 in their account, who hasn’t had some sort of issues. My buddy transferred money in awhile ago...they held it for 23 days. And their customer service routinely just went “IDK, be patient”
I've never done an options trade, so I wouldn't know and I'll take your word for it. I'm a K.I.S.S. kinda guy!
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmDYrMGKMQM
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Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway have been dragging Robinhood for months on their podcast. Hard to imagine there is a more clear cut case of collusion than RH only allowing retail invests to sell shares while the HF's could trade freely.
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Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway have been dragging Robinhood for months on their podcast. Hard to imagine there is a more clear cut case of collusion than RH only allowing retail invests to sell shares while the HF's could trade freely.
I have to wonder if there is some sort of volatility clause in their T&Cs.
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Robinhood CEO looked like a clown on his CNBC interview.
W/r/t the youtube video posted above...
When the host talks about unity over protests, or murder or any other act where you have a liberal vs conservative slant, it's hard to unite and see justice done - I agree with him.
But he talks about this situation being different because it seems like the left/center/right all agree that there was a significant injustice - I disagree. In this situation, regardless of which part of the political spectrum agrees, you aren't going to punish the rich/elite/powerful. It just won't happen. It didn't happen in 2008. It won't happen now.
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WSJ did a writeup on /u/DeepFxxkingValue (the reddit denizen and Twitch streamer that bought a bunch of GME 4/16/21 calls at around $5 in September of 2019 and drove this thing).
This is great watching old media try to make sense of the internet. Nice writing by the WSJ, as always.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/keith-gill-drove-the-gamestop-reddit-mania-he-talked-to-the-journal-11611931696
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Good article from Yahoo finance explaining some of the rationale by Robinhood and other brokerages for halting trading on the meme stocks this week. It seems pretty clear there's a lack of knowledge about the differences in the way retail brokerage firms typically operate and how they allow their customers to trade vs. the way hedge funds and other institutional investors trade. I can't imagine these retail firms had scenarios like this built into their business models. This seems to have taken everyone by surprise.
Hopefully this opens the eyes of the brokerage firms and the regulators and forces them to address these kinds of possibilities in the future. If this article is accurate, though, I'm guessing any investigations into the decisions made this week won't find anything to punish the brokerage firms for.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-dash-cash-traders-took-053007442.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-dash-cash-traders-took-053007442.html)
Edit - here's another story with the CEO of Webull explaining their decision to stop allowing trading yesterday. I doubt many people will end up reading through these kinds of articles because they're not nearly as flashy as most of the headlines, but sharing this information is important. There's a lot to be learned before people wind up on CNBC and demanding prison time for the heads of these brokerages.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-bull-ceo-explains-why-trading-was-restricted-amid-the-game-stop-market-mania-172539318.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-bull-ceo-explains-why-trading-was-restricted-amid-the-game-stop-market-mania-172539318.html)
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So my son, who is less financially literate than I am and I only dabble in indexed funds because I know that I don't know enough, told me that he purchased GME through his Robinhood app a couple days ago. $50 worth. As did a bunch of his friends.
Why? "To screw over the hedge fund guys."
I think there is A LOT of that thinking going around.
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This has got to Heisie's kind of chaos.
And looking back a couple of pages, I see that it is.
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So my son, who is less financially literate than I am and I only dabble in indexed funds because I know that I don't know enough, told me that he purchased GME through his Robinhood app a couple days ago. $50 worth. As did a bunch of his friends.
Why? "To screw over the hedge fund guys."
I think there is A LOT of that thinking going around.
Props to your son FBM. This is an amazing story.
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Props to your son FBM. This is an amazing story.
Thanks. I love the kid, but I am going to spend a part of my day tomorrow helping him with his taxes because they are "hard for him to figure out." Dude's 23 with one W2 form. I don't think this is a guy who should be playing the market.
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So my son, who is less financially literate than I am and I only dabble in indexed funds because I know that I don't know enough, told me that he purchased GME through his Robinhood app a couple days ago. $50 worth. As did a bunch of his friends.
Why? "To screw over the hedge fund guys."
I think there is A LOT of that thinking going around.
Somewhat similar, my younger daughter was reading the story on this last night and was telling my wife she was happy because "the regular people are screwing over the capitalist's."
Something along those lines. My wife and I just looked at each other speechless wondering where that quote came from.
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Thanks. I love the kid, but I am going to spend a part of my day tomorrow helping him with his taxes because they are "hard for him to figure out." Dude's 23 with one W2 form. I don't think this is a guy who should be playing the market.
Ha....touche. Or it could be that he has a massive portfolio, as well as an K-1 trust form, and needs your expert tutelage. He may just want your accountant free of charge? :)
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So my son, who is less financially literate than I am and I only dabble in indexed funds because I know that I don't know enough, told me that he purchased GME through his Robinhood app a couple days ago. $50 worth. As did a bunch of his friends.
Why? "To screw over the hedge fund guys."
I think there is A LOT of that thinking going around.
Kind of funny when it's just $50 and it's no big deal if/when that goes up in smoke. But the energy online of people wanting to stick it to the hedge fund guys without even knowing why they might want to do that is a little concerning when it's real money. Scrolling through WSB is absolutely crazy. A ton of the stories and the values being touted have to be fake, but I'm sure they're encouraging some people to buy in with money they don't have to lose.
A great example of how quickly people are buying into all these fake stories is the NY Post reporter who got duped by some 22 year old on Twitter. If she bought into this story (she absolutely should have known better than to believe this) can you imagine what people with no background knowledge would do? There are going to be some really ugly stories that come out of this, and they're not going to be coming from the hedge funds.
https://www.mediaite.com/news/ny-post-deletes-story-after-getting-duped-by-random-twitter-user-who-pushed-absurd-story-about-buying-gamestop-stock/ (https://www.mediaite.com/news/ny-post-deletes-story-after-getting-duped-by-random-twitter-user-who-pushed-absurd-story-about-buying-gamestop-stock/)
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Ha....touche. Or it could be that he has a massive portfolio, as well as an K-1 trust form, and needs your expert tutelage. He may just want your accountant free of charge? :)
Schedule D is as complex as I get. And if he has that, we are going to start charging rent.
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I'm confident FBM will get his son out once it goes up another 300%. :)
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Somewhat similar, my younger daughter was reading the story on this last night and was telling my wife she was happy because "the regular people are screwing over the capitalist's."
Something along those lines. My wife and I just looked at each other speechless wondering where that quote came from.
Good to hear that she sees the world for what it is. Men in big buildings producing nothing robbing the average person blind on a daily basis.
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Schedule D is as complex as I get. And if he has that, we are going to start charging rent.
You better have a talk with him about all of his assets!!
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I spent a little more time scrolling through WSB the last day or two, and I'm amazed there hasn't been any talk about how awful these guys are. If I'm anyone with some credibility commenting on this situation, I'd make sure to distance myself from this group immediately. It's one thing to root for the little guy, but Im having a hard time seeing how people want to support these guys in particular.
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I spent a little more time scrolling through WSB the last day or two, and I'm amazed there hasn't been any talk about how awful these guys are. If I'm anyone with some credibility commenting on this situation, I'd make sure to distance myself from this group immediately. It's one thing to root for the little guy, but Im having a hard time seeing how people want to support these guys in particular.
Why?
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Why?
You must not have spent much time on the subreddit if you're asking. Toxic is an understatement for most threads. Lots of mocking of intellectual disabilities, a little mysoginy, and general praise of reckless behavior all on top of horribly ignorant financial commentary. It's a mess.
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You must have spent much time on the subreddit if you're asking. Toxic is an understatement for most threads.
I have spent zero time. Thus why I'm asking someone who has spent time there.
What's toxic about it?
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You must have spent much time on the subreddit if you're asking. Toxic is an understatement for most threads.
That’s why I’ve been bemused in this thread earlier about people fawning over them and their “crusade”. They are out to make money and screw those against them, in this case it’s hedge funds which make them media darlings. It’s certainly not altruistic or with any greater sentiment of “good”
I have spent zero time. Thus why I'm asking someone who has spent time there.
What's toxic about it?
There is some good insight from some people, like DeepValue quoted earlier. But most threads and most members are like any gambling subreddit. They call any bearish investors or positions a “(rainbow emoji)(bear emoji)”. It’s exceptionally juvenile, crude, and antagonistic.
It’s hilarious to see AOC jumping on board their “mission” cause ive seen that sub absolutely brutalize her repeatedly in a pretty harsh manner, and that’s coming from someone who largely can’t stand her
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i understand shorting a stock is part of the process, but for someone who has the means to go very public, on t.v., online and chit all over a company, announce the company is going to hell, in my mind, criminal. it's ok when the "big guys" do it? but they pissed off the junk yard dogs-take your medicine
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That’s why I’ve been bemused in this thread earlier about people fawning over them and their “crusade”. They are out to make money and screw those against them, in this case it’s hedge funds which make them media darlings. It’s certainly not altruistic or with any greater sentiment of “good”
There is some good insight from some people, like DeepValue quoted earlier. But most threads and most members are like any gambling subreddit. They call any bearish investors or positions a “(rainbow emoji)(bear emoji)”. It’s exceptionally juvenile, crude, and antagonistic.
It’s hilarious to see AOC jumping on board their “mission” cause ive seen that sub absolutely brutalize her repeatedly in a pretty harsh manner, and that’s coming from someone who largely can’t stand her
I'm not defending them, but I'm surely not going to lump them all into a group. Quite a bit of money has been donated from people's gains. Generally, their 'schtick' is awful.
I think it's okay to defend what they are doing and not condone their juvenile pathetic behavior. They all think they're Jordan Belfour. They have nothing in common.
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I'm not defending them, but I'm surely not going to lump them all into a group. Quite a bit of money has been donated from people's gains. Generally, their 'schtick' is awful.
I think it's okay to defend what they are doing and not condone their juvenile pathetic behavior. They all think they're Jordan Belfour. They have nothing in common.
I'm sure everyone who works at a hedge fund is a saint
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I'm sure everyone who works at a hedge fund is a saint
Hedge funds aren’t illegal. They are even immoral on their face. People just don’t like them because they seem shady and are run by wealthy people.
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Hedge funds aren’t illegal. They are even immoral on their face. People just don’t like them because they seem shady and are run by wealthy people.
I didn't say they were.
But if you're (plural) going to condemn everyone who participates in r/wsb because of actions/words of some, then I assume you'll do the same for hedge funds.
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I'm sure everyone who works at a hedge fund is a saint
Good to hear that she sees the world for what it is. Men in big buildings producing nothing robbing the average person blind on a daily basis.
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That’s why I’ve been bemused in this thread earlier about people fawning over them and their “crusade”. They are out to make money and screw those against them, in this case it’s hedge funds which make them media darlings. It’s certainly not altruistic or with any greater sentiment of “good”
There is some good insight from some people, like DeepValue quoted earlier. But most threads and most members are like any gambling subreddit. They call any bearish investors or positions a “(rainbow emoji)(bear emoji)”. It’s exceptionally juvenile, crude, and antagonistic.
It’s hilarious to see AOC jumping on board their “mission” cause ive seen that sub absolutely brutalize her repeatedly in a pretty harsh manner, and that’s coming from someone who largely can’t stand her
While I agree with you pretty much 100%, the fact remains that millions in this country feel the wheel is rigged against them and when those who benefit from the rigged wheel get their comeuppance people those folks will celebrate. The enemy of my enemy is my friend syndrome.
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While I agree with you pretty much 100%, the fact remains that millions in this country feel the wheel is rigged against them and when those who benefit from the rigged wheel get their comeuppance people those folks will celebrate. The enemy of my enemy is my friend syndrome.
Also true: the wheel IS rigged
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Hopefully this opens the eyes of the brokerage firms and the regulators and forces them to address these kinds of possibilities in the future. If this article is accurate, though, I'm guessing any investigations into the decisions made this week won't find anything to punish the brokerage firms for.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-dash-cash-traders-took-053007442.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-dash-cash-traders-took-053007442.html)
Edit - here's another story with the CEO of Webull explaining their decision to stop allowing trading yesterday. I doubt many people will end up reading through these kinds of articles because they're not nearly as flashy as most of the headlines, but sharing this information is important. There's a lot to be learned before people wind up on CNBC and demanding prison time for the heads of these brokerages.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-bull-ceo-explains-why-trading-was-restricted-amid-the-game-stop-market-mania-172539318.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-bull-ceo-explains-why-trading-was-restricted-amid-the-game-stop-market-mania-172539318.html)
I looked over these today, because I was curious as to the logic why the heads of these companies were not out of line, acting illegally.
Two things caught my attention. The first article notes that the requirement for more collateral in the central clearing house resulted around 10 AM on Thursday after GME started to crater. It cratered because RH and others blocked all buys of GME before the open on Thursday. So RH and others created the collateral problem. You can't use a situation you caused as justification for a possibly illegal action.
Second, they could have taken different actions. They could have blocked margin buys across the board, for instance. But they didn't take other more universal actions, rather they explicitly targeted buys of companies, whose stock price increases were crippling their biggest revenue stream (e.g. hedge funds). So their actions were designed to benefit their largest patrons (Citadel), at the expense of their clients, and despite the fact it would create a large capital call on them...which was bailed out by venture capital.
On its face, it definitely appears illegal, and even if it isn't criminal, they are liable for damages, because running a company poorly does not acquit you for your actions.
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I'm sure everyone who works at a hedge fund is a saint
That doesn't have anything to do with how toxic WSB is.
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Hedge funds aren’t illegal. They are even immoral on their face. People just don’t like them because they seem shady and are run by wealthy people.
I think most people who are rooting against Melvin right now don't have any idea how hedge funds actually work or what kind of people work there. A lot of the animosity comes from a lack of understanding and/or negative assumptions. To be clear, there's plenty to dislike about big money pushing people around, but I don't see many people talking about WHY they have a grudge against the hedge funds outside of the fact that they have a lot of money.
With all this fallout, I'm curious to see if any of the big investors in these fund will face any pushback from their client bases to pull their money out. I know unions and endowment funds tend to put a chunk of their assets into more aggressive investments like hedge funds. I wonder how these typically liberal members feel about their money being run by these guys who tend to be viewed so negatively.
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I think most people who are rooting against Melvin right now don't have any idea how hedge funds actually work or what kind of people work there. A lot of the animosity comes from a lack of understanding and/or negative assumptions. To be clear, there's plenty to dislike about big money pushing people around, but I don't see many people talking about WHY they have a grudge against the hedge funds outside of the fact that they have a lot of money.
With all this fallout, I'm curious to see if any of the big investors in these fund will face any pushback from their client bases to pull their money out. I know unions and endowment funds tend to put a chunk of their assets into more aggressive investments like hedge funds. I wonder how these typically liberal members feel about their money being run by these guys who tend to be viewed so negatively.
As far as endowments go, I doubt it will have much impact. Hedging is important and the people making those decisions aren’t as liberal as you think.
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I looked over these today, because I was curious as to the logic why the heads of these companies were not out of line, acting illegally.
Two things caught my attention. The first article notes that the requirement for more collateral in the central clearing house resulted around 10 AM on Thursday after GME started to crater. It cratered because RH and others blocked all buys of GME before the open on Thursday. So RH and others created the collateral problem. You can't use a situation you caused as justification for a possibly illegal action.
Second, they could have taken different actions. They could have blocked margin buys across the board, for instance. But they didn't take other more universal actions, rather they explicitly targeted buys of companies, whose stock price increases were crippling their biggest revenue stream (e.g. hedge funds). So their actions were designed to benefit their largest patrons (Citadel), at the expense of their clients, and despite the fact it would create a large capital call on them...which was bailed out by venture capital.
On its face, it definitely appears illegal, and even if it isn't criminal, they are liable for damages, because running a company poorly does not acquit you for your actions.
I didn't see anything in those articles, or any of the others I've read, that would suggest Robinhood caused the collateral call. It happened to several brokerages, and it seems like this is a highly unusual circumstance. Maybe they should have seen this coming, but I'm getting the impression that this past week included a lot of unprecedented events.
As to halting the trading of specific securities, the articles below make it seem like the specific trades taking place have an affect on the collateral requirements. With that in mind, it does make sense to limit specific trades that are creating the most risk. It sucks, but I haven't seen anything that sounds like this is illegal. Further, RH did take additional broader measures by restricting the purchases of fractional shares and crypto. And then while these restrictions were in place, they were also raising capital to begin covering the capital requirements so they could resume trading.
I understand why people are upset, but I don't see anything here that seems illegal. I do think we'll see some changes in regulation proposed as a result of this fallout, though. And as to running a business poorly - this affected all the big brokers in the same way. The DTCC made the collateral call, which forced the hands of RH, E-Trade, Ameritrade, and others. If the scenario was unique, then maybe more blame could fall on RH, but it wasn't.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/what-s-the-dtcc-and-how-did-it-stop-gamestop-mania-quicktake (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/what-s-the-dtcc-and-how-did-it-stop-gamestop-mania-quicktake)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/clearing-firms-prevent-cascading-failures-q-a-with-larry-tabb (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/clearing-firms-prevent-cascading-failures-q-a-with-larry-tabb)
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As far as endowments go, I doubt it will have much impact. Hedging is important and the people making those decisions aren’t as liberal as you think.
I would imagine a lot of the people making the investment decisions for big funds may have some different views than the broader memberships they represent. That makes sense. But with the rise of socially conscious investing, I can see there being some vocal opposition from university stakeholders - professors, alums, even students - to the university putting money into certain funds or investments.
Or maybe this all blows over next week as we move on to the next news cycle. This might just end up being a flash in the pan.
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I'm not defending them, but I'm surely not going to lump them all into a group. Quite a bit of money has been donated from people's gains. Generally, their 'schtick' is awful.
I think it's okay to defend what they are doing and not condone their juvenile pathetic behavior. They all think they're Jordan Belfour. They have nothing in common.
That’s fair. And I’d wager, knowing what I know about WSB and judging from my experience and knowledge in the past, the donations are largely coming from those who came in later. If the core of WSB is, say, 2000 people and the WSB fueled trading cabal in GME and others is, say, 10000, is wager the donations are coming from that additional 8000. Aka I’m not saying everyone short squeezing GME, or even posting on WSB about it right now, is toxic or juvenile, but the historical core group and most active users certainly are
I'm sure everyone who works at a hedge fund is a saint
The difference is both WSB and hedge funds are doing the EXACT same thing. Trying to exploit market inefficiencies and situations to make as much money as possible. The difference is hedge funds are being made out to be evil capitalist sharks while WSB is the noble do-gooders who are fighting for the little guy. Which is just silly media spin.
Hedge funds aren’t illegal. They are even immoral on their face. People just don’t like them because they seem shady and are run by wealthy people.
I’d argue that, even moreso, most people that “don’t like them” don’t understand them. They see finance people making billions while not producing a tangible good or product, combined with the memory of 2008, and they assume it’s ALL shady and underhanded.
Everything isn’t black and white, it’s shades of grey, but that’s not as easy to draw sides on
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I didn't see anything in those articles, or any of the others I've read, that would suggest Robinhood caused the collateral call. It happened to several brokerages, and it seems like this is a highly unusual circumstance. Maybe they should have seen this coming, but I'm getting the impression that this past week included a lot of unprecedented events.
The first article you linked in the original post indicated the collateral call after 10 AM Thursday was driven by the volatility in GME falling from the $400's to the $100s. That drop occurred because RH and others blocked all buys for GME before the open on Thursday.
They acted before the collateral call, and their actions caused the drop that upped the collateral requirements.
At least that is how that first link read. Maybe they are miss reporting the timeline.
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The difference is both WSB and hedge funds are doing the EXACT same thing. Trying to exploit market inefficiencies and situations to make as much money as possible. The difference is hedge funds are being made out to be evil capitalist sharks while WSB is the noble do-gooders who are fighting for the little guy. Which is just silly media spin.
85% of the stock market is owned by the top ten percent of households by net worth - top 1% own half. I think you are underestimating this fact when dismissing the issue as 'media spin'.
David vs. golliath is always an interesting story -- even more-so in the time when populism is on the rise.
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I thought they were talking about an episode of Showtime's Billions when I saw the news.
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85% of the stock market is owned by the top ten percent of households by net worth - top 1% own half. I think you are underestimating this fact when dismissing the issue as 'media spin'.
David vs. golliath is always an interesting story -- even more-so in the time when populism is on the rise.
I wasn’t dismissing the issue. I wasn’t even dismissing the reason for the interest in it beyond active market followers. I was objecting to what people claim WSB’s motivation is/was, and ascribing excess meaning to it, cause it’s a bit off base
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There’s 6 million people on WSB. It runs the gamut from professional traders to college students. There is no single motivation. Most of the people just want to make money. Sure, there are some who want to make a political statement but they are honestly in the minority.
There are some creeps with toxic behavior but there’s also threads of people donating to children’s hospitals with their proceeds.
You really can’t paint an entire subreddit with a broad brush.
BTW I joined WSB like 3 years ago when it was under one million. I mostly just lurk. But there’s good and bad in every online forum, including Scoop
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Here's another chance for me to illustrate my ignorance, and hopefully someone on here can answer a question for me.
Regarding the GameStop situation, assuming those who shorted GME have already covered their margin calls, is there any reason that they can't just sit on their paper losses and wait out the investors? I assume that absent any real business performance revelations which might result in investment, the only way the stock continues to climb is if people continue buying. But I think that "normal" investing at this point is unlikely because I think everyone can probably agree that the stock is overvalued based upon any normal valuation.
So, can the hedge funds just wait out the WSB investors? Or are there time limits by which they have to cover those shorts? I suspect in the coming days and weeks, the hysteria over GME will die down, the number of new GME investors will dwindle, and a lot of the people who threw cash at it will start looking for an exit strategy. I acknowledge that some of the WSB investors say that they are going to hold to stick it to the man, but I suspect as time goes by, the number willing to do that will dwindle and people will be looking to either lock in their gains or cut their losses.
Thanks.
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Here's another chance for me to illustrate my ignorance, and hopefully someone on here can answer a question for me.
Regarding the GameStop situation, assuming those who shorted GME have already covered their margin calls, is there any reason that they can't just sit on their paper losses and wait out the investors? I assume that absent any real business performance revelations which might result in investment, the only way the stock continues to climb is if people continue buying. But I think that "normal" investing at this point is unlikely because I think everyone can probably agree that the stock is overvalued based upon any normal valuation.
So, can the hedge funds just wait out the WSB investors? Or are there time limits by which they have to cover those shorts? I suspect in the coming days and weeks, the hysteria over GME will die down, the number of new GME investors will dwindle, and a lot of the people who threw cash at it will start looking for an exit strategy. I acknowledge that some of the WSB investors say that they are going to hold to stick it to the man, but I suspect as time goes by, the number willing to do that will dwindle and people will be looking to either lock in their gains or cut their losses.
Thanks.
My uneducated understanding (based on just reading WSB and a few podcasts) is that they are being charged a ton of interest to hold onto those shorts. I think they can wait them out, but at a point, it gets pretty expensive to do that.
I also think some believe while they publicly say they covered the shorts, I don’t know that it’s necessarily true.
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GME sub-200, 170 level is BIG for support and not further downside.
So interesting thoughts about other squeezes. We’ve been over the uniqueness of GME. AMC has not been able to sustain the big upswings cause they have been issuing shares like crazy at these higher levels. That dilution makes MUCH harder to squeeze anything sharply upwards. But I would imagine a lot of the people that are talking about holding with diamond hands don’t realize that.
Silver is another animal entirely. I’ve seen people speculate about it being a Wall Street engineered counter to make back losses. But if it is indeed another retail/WSB driven idea. Metal prices that a driven by actual supply and demand for physical goods is way different than pushing metaphorical paper around. Also, if they succeeded, there are everyday consumer ideas like electronics that can be negatively affected, from a consumer price perspective, by jacked up silver prices
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The silver thing didn't start on WSB. It sure did take over the news cycle though, pretty wild. WSP is 100% GME right now. AMC/BB/PLTR have all faded into the background in the past week.
I bought a bunch of IPOE today.
NET earnings in just over a week and I'm looking forward to seeing the numbers, I'm long either way.
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The silver thing didn't start on WSB. It sure did take over the news cycle though, pretty wild. WSP is 100% GME right now. AMC/BB/PLTR have all faded into the background in the past week.
I bought a bunch of IPOE today.
NET earnings in just over a week and I'm looking forward to seeing the numbers, I'm long either way.
I thought about buying it about a week ago. I didn't, and regretting it now.
Considering buying it still, as it was going to be a long play anyway.
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Just took a stroll past WSB this morning. It is not a pretty sight this morning.
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Everything is so juiced. April $45Ps are $16. That’s insanity, the IV is out of a control. The stock takes a 50% haircut and you are still very red on those puts. Just not worth playing outside of commons right now.
Fun to revisit, posted this when GME was over $100 last week. Then reposted saying the stock was $150 higher (in the $250+ range) and the price of the puts hadn’t moved. So you could get April 45P for $16 when GME was over $250. Today it’s fallen almost $200 from there, barely any time decay on options expiring in 2+ months...and those outs are around $18. That’s the very definition of bad risk reward
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Just took a stroll past WSB this morning. It is not a pretty sight this morning.
Lots of bagholders amongst the new members I'd bet.
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GME, AMC, etc dropping like rocks today.
Oh well ... it was fun while it lasted.
Glad my son-in-law made enough in his little trade to buy each of us a $13 beer. It was delish!
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GME, AMC, etc dropping like rocks today.
Oh well ... it was fun while it lasted.
Glad my son-in-law made enough in his little trade to buy each of us a $13 beer. It was delish!
From my perspective as primarily a fund investor (mutual...not hedge), I'm just hoping that the fund managers have pulled the right levers at the right times (or didn't pull any at all, if that was the right play). It sure has been interesting to watch, though.
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From my perspective as primarily a fund investor (mutual...not hedge), I'm just hoping that the fund managers have pulled the right levers at the right times (or didn't pull any at all, if that was the right play). It sure has been interesting to watch, though.
Yep. It's been amazing to watch. I didn't think anything like that was possible.
There already have been book deals and movie rights deals signed, BTW.
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Yep. It's been amazing to watch. I didn't think anything like that was possible.
There already have been book deals and movie rights deals signed, BTW.
GME went from like 80 to about 120 in a half hour.
This volatility is wild.
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I just saw a brief proposal for a "transaction tax," with the belief that even at 0.1 percent of a trade’s value, it could reduce the attractiveness of the high-speed trading that gives sophisticated Wall Street firms a huge advantage.
I have to think about that a little before I decide if it makes sense to me or not.
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I just saw a brief proposal for a "transaction tax," with the belief that even at 0.1 percent of a trade’s value, it could reduce the attractiveness of the high-speed trading that gives sophisticated Wall Street firms a huge advantage.
I have to think about that a little before I decide if it makes sense to me or not.
Unless they find a way to limit it to high speed trading, which IMO they never would, I hate it. So a tenth of a percent of traded value. Now you have an actively managed pension fund, which if they trade through their funds value 10 times in a year, they shave off a percent of profits.
And that’s not been factoring in if it would be on both the opening and closing transactions, cause then you’d get to .2% of every trade value. That sucks
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Bezos stepping down from AMZN
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Bezos stepping down from AMZN
As CEO, he is still an exec. No clue why he didn't do this some time ago. He can avoid the bad press and enjoy his billions. Hard for him to be such a capitalist and hang out in his preferred social circles.
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Unless they find a way to limit it to high speed trading, which IMO they never would, I hate it. So a tenth of a percent of traded value. Now you have an actively managed pension fund, which if they trade through their funds value 10 times in a year, they shave off a percent of profits.
And that’s not been factoring in if it would be on both the opening and closing transactions, cause then you’d get to .2% of every trade value. That sucks
+1
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Unless they find a way to limit it to high speed trading, which IMO they never would, I hate it. So a tenth of a percent of traded value. Now you have an actively managed pension fund, which if they trade through their funds value 10 times in a year, they shave off a percent of profits.
And that’s not been factoring in if it would be on both the opening and closing transactions, cause then you’d get to .2% of every trade value. That sucks
Yeah, I think I agree. And I don't see it happening. Good points throughout.
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If you had 500 dollars to invest and wanted to be a little bit on the riskier side, what would you invest in?
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If you had 500 dollars to invest and wanted to be a little bit on the riskier side, what would you invest in?
VTI
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If you had 500 dollars to invest and wanted to be a little bit on the riskier side, what would you invest in?
Etherium or Bitcoin.
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If you had 500 dollars to invest and wanted to be a little bit on the riskier side, what would you invest in?
If I'm gonna gamble on the market, I like gambling stocks. DKNG, GAN, DMYD, etc. I'm long DKNG and still researching the other two, which are "pick-and-shovel" stocks to the industry.
Not a recommendation. Just saying what I'm doing.
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If I'm gonna gamble on the market, I like gambling stocks. DKNG, GAN, DMYD, etc. I'm long DKNG and still researching the other two, which are "pick-and-shovel" stocks to the industry.
Not a recommendation. Just saying what I'm doing.
PENN?
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PENN?
Another good one. I don't own it, but I might someday.
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If you had 500 dollars to invest and wanted to be a little bit on the riskier side, what would you invest in?
You can send it to the TSmith34 SPAC. I'll figure out what we are investing in later.
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Another good one. I don't own it, but I might someday.
WYNN?
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WYNN?
Is this what we're gonna do?
Yeah, sure, WYNN.
Also, in advance, other quality gambling-related names.
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definitely will invest in draftkings. Any other stocks in other sectors of the economy are helpful
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If you had 500 dollars to invest and wanted to be a little bit on the riskier side, what would you invest in?
60% Ark/40% Cryptos
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I also put some money in WKHS a couple of weeks ago. Hopefully, they get the USPS contract to replaced all of the mail delivery trucks with their EVs.
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PENN?
Is MUScoop investing the new Wallstreetbets?
Mention a stock and it shoots up 20% in a couple days.
What are we targeting next?
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Is MUScoop investing the new Wallstreetbets?
Mention a stock and it shoots up 20% in a couple days.
What are we targeting next?
Sultan, Inc.
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Is MUScoop investing the new Wallstreetbets?
Mention a stock and it shoots up 20% in a couple days.
What are we targeting next?
Look at their 52 week hi/low
A lot of money was made when people bought at under 4
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Sultan, Inc.
Short it.
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definitely will invest in draftkings. Any other stocks in other sectors of the economy are helpful
in at $45-nice ride
check out sorrento(srne) in at $7 also gonna ride this cowboy. today it's $14 analysts estimates avg target $28. price targets in the $30's
i think it's better than that as they are far from a one trick pony. give this one some patience beyond a year. they've already been into cancer tx's, antibodies, immunological approaches which made covid a natural progression, but don't let that fool ya. their progress with the covid is great PR too
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Look at their 52 week hi/low
A lot of money was made when people bought at under 4
That would be Dave "Davey Day Trader" Portnoy.
* January 2020, he got $50 million of PENN stock for a stake in Barstool (PENN was ~$25)
* March 2020, that stake was worth $10 to $12 million. (PENN ~$4)
* April 2020, back to $20 million, he starts day trading (PENN ~ $10)
* This past week - the stock was up 25% ($103 to $128). Portnoy's stake increased by $60 million just this past week to a total of $250 million. (no typo!)
Some Wall Street analysts think it can double again in the next year.
Could Portnoy become a billionaire in the next few years? Maybe he will then buy an NFL team!
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Not the greatest Super Bowl for gambling stocks, apparently.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3659518-super-bowl-letdown-for-penn-and-draftkings-after-torrid-rallies?mail_subject=dkng-super-bowl-letdown-for-penn-and-draftkings-after-torrid-rallies&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
Penn National Gaming (PENN) and DraftKings (DKNG) fall back after a blistering pace for both stocks ahead of the Super Bowl.
Penn is still 88% higher over the last 90 days and DraftKings is up 48% for the same time period.
Things did not go exceptionally well for sports betting apps with the huge Super Bowl test as DraftKings, FanDuel (PDYPY) and BetMGM (MGM) all had some tech issues reported right before the kickoff of Super Bowl LV in certain regions with high traffic. Meanwhile, the Barstool betting app appears to have passed the traffic test with flying colors.
The American Gaming Association forecast a record 7.6M bettors would place bets at online sportsbooks this year.
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Tesla announced a $1 billion purchase of bitcoin today. Now trading >$44,000.
Rumors abound they will announce a $5 billion purchase
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/apple-may-be-the-next-notable-company-to-buy-bitcoin-rbc-says.html
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Tesla announced a $1 billion purchase of bitcoin today. Now trading >$44,000.
Rumors abound they will announce a $5 billion purchase
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/apple-may-be-the-next-notable-company-to-buy-bitcoin-rbc-says.html
What was the price when Tesla bought it? 30 something? They should sell it now and make a nice couple hundred million profit in a day.
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What was the price when Tesla bought it? 30 something? They should sell it now and make a nice couple hundred million profit in a day.
Who honestly knows. When he announced it was already 40k trending upwards for two weeks.
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Colin Kaepernick jumps aboard the SPAC train
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3660371-colin-kaepernick-jumps-aboard-the-spac-train
Colin Kaepernick is taking his activism to the wide world of SPACs, or blank check companies which raise money through an IPO so that they can buy or merge with another firm. He'll serve as co-chair of Mission Advancement Corp., which will focus on racial justice and diversity issues and seek to raise up to $287.5M. The SPAC is specifically targeting consumer businesses with an enterprise value of more than $1B that "delivers a significant impact financially, culturally and socially."
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Welp, that’s as good of a sign of a top as I’ve ever seen
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Welp, that’s as good of a sign of a top as I’ve ever seen
Made me laugh.
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How do people feel about vegan/plant based OTC stocks? Was looking at VRYYF, BABYF, and BUROF. I've never invested in OTCs before and am curious as to how much of a gamble it is.
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How do people feel about vegan/plant based OTC stocks? Was looking at VRYYF, BABYF, and BUROF. I've never invested in OTCs before and am curious as to how much of a gamble it is.
Penny stocks are not a good plan.
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How do people feel about vegan/plant based OTC stocks? Was looking at VRYYF, BABYF, and BUROF. I've never invested in OTCs before and am curious as to how much of a gamble it is.
I like the vegan/plant based sector, but I wouldn’t pay the prices for those three OTCs.
I currently own two cannabis OTCs but paid literal pennies per share. I only did it because I took some nice profits from ACB and TLRY. It’s basically a night at the craps table, not an “investment” strategy. If I make a buck, cool, if I don’t, I didn’t lose much.
*I am not someone to take investing advice from.
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Thinking it's time to invest in guns again. RGR, anybody?
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Thinking it's time to invest in guns again. RGR, anybody?
Seems like a lot of people have been investing guns over the last year or so...
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Question for those here much more knowledgeable than me: A couple years ago I invested a small amount of money in Glu Mobile (GLUU). Earlier this week it was announced that Electronic Arts (EA) had acquired Glu for $2.1 billion. They apparently are paying GLUU shareholders $12.50/share at some unspecified time in the future (but supposedly in Q2 2021). Here's some information on the deal (https://investorplace.com/2021/02/gluu-stock-alert-13-things-to-know-about-the-ea-deal-as-glu-mobile-skyrockets/).
Since the deal was announced, GLUU has been trading between $12.50 and $12.60 or so (jumping as high as $12.72 very briefly). It seems to me that there is no real reason to expect that it will ever move significantly because the final price has already been pretty much set.* Is there any real reason to sit on this, or should I try to dump in on one of the higher (although small) blips? It seems that if I wait, I'm just going to get the $12.50. Again, this is very small amount of money at issue. This is part of my RH account that I've been using to play and also to learn a little bit -- like what happens in this type of situation.
*I'm aware that the deal has to be approved and that there are some out there who are already trying to stir up questions about fiduciary duties, etc. I'm assuming the deal will close.
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StillAWarrior,
I see the stock was up a bit more yesterday to close at 12.80, indicating the market thinks there is a smallish possibility that someone comes in with a higher bid than EA's 12.50. If this was completely a done deal, you'd likely see the stock trading a hare under 12.50, basically the time value of money until the expected close date.
So, as you said, you have a few options:
1) Still on the stock in anticipation that another buyer comes calling at something higher than $12.80
2) Sell now and grab the extra $0.30/share over the buyout price
3) If no other buyer comes forth, the stock will likely drop to ~$12.47; you could sell then rather than wait around for that extra $0.03/share
4) Wait it out until close and take $12.50
The biggest factor is how likely you think it is that another buyer jumps in at something more than $12.50/share.
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Colin Kaepernick jumps aboard the SPAC train
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3660371-colin-kaepernick-jumps-aboard-the-spac-train
Colin Kaepernick is taking his activism to the wide world of SPACs, or blank check companies which raise money through an IPO so that they can buy or merge with another firm. He'll serve as co-chair of Mission Advancement Corp., which will focus on racial justice and diversity issues and seek to raise up to $287.5M. The SPAC is specifically targeting consumer businesses with an enterprise value of more than $1B that "delivers a significant impact financially, culturally and socially."
Some SPAC thought from Yahoo Finance (the only worthwhile part of Yahoo). Sorry, no link, morning newsletter, selected paragraphs below:
"The growth has been wack. In 2019, according to SPACInsider, 59 SPACs worth $13 billion were created. Last year there were 248 worth $83 billion. And already, just six weeks into this year, there are 135 SPACs which have raised $40 billion. Many more are on tap.
Essentially SPACs allow sponsors to make big money—for a nominal investment they get a 20% cut of the deal—and for companies to go public. DraftKings (DKNG), Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Nikola (NKLA) all went public through a SPAC last year. The success of DraftKings in particular served as a clarion call. In fact the volume of new SPACs is now outpacing traditional IPOs, according to this excellent graphic made by The Wall Street Journal.
Politics aside, will Kaepernick’s SPAC make any sense? Will it make any money? Kaepernick does have business experience working with Nike, Medium, Apple and others, and he’s not the CEO anyway. But the truth is, and by definition, we have no idea, because as a new SPAC, Mission hasn’t invested in anything yet. So who knows.
That’s the thing about SPACs. The more you dig into them, the more you realize they’re opaque and complicated. They’re also red hot. And that’s not necessarily a great combination.
The growth has been wack. In 2019, according to SPACInsider, 59 SPACs worth $13 billion were created. Last year there were 248 worth $83 billion. And already, just six weeks into this year, there are 135 SPACs which have raised $40 billion. Many more are on tap.
We’ll get back to what that means in the big picture, but first let’s journey deeper into the nitty-gritty of SPACs.
Here’s some more basic concepts:
-A SPAC is a shell company formed to go public for the purpose of acquiring an existing company typically within two years. It’s really a way for a company to go public without doing an IPO, (more on that later.)
-Sometimes SPAC sponsors have a target in mind, sometimes they don’t.
-Typically hedge funds and traders bought SPACs to arbitrage prices of SPAC securities (common stock, warrants and loans—trust me it’s complicated.) But now plain-vanilla investors, both professional and retail, are snapping up SPAC shares.
-SPAC shares are usually issued at $10 and used to trade around that price until a deal is announced, but during this frenzy they have been spiking on rumors. (More on that later too.)
Essentially SPACs allow sponsors to make big money—for a nominal investment they get a 20% cut of the deal—and for companies to go public. DraftKings (DKNG), Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Nikola (NKLA) all went public through a SPAC last year. The success of DraftKings in particular served as a clarion call. In fact the volume of new SPACs is now outpacing traditional IPOs, according to this excellent graphic made by The Wall Street Journal.
As for you, Mr. and Ms. Investor, you are just along for the ride.
SPACs have been around since at least 1993, according to this great Bloomberg explainer in the Seattle Times, so why are they hot again now?
Much of it has to do with the one-off year that was 2020. “There were lots of high growth companies needing capital and the traditional IPO process, which takes twice as long anyway, is far riskier in a pandemic and an election year,” says Kristi Marvin of SPACInisder. She also notes that with a SPAC a company can shill itself by predicting forward earnings, which it couldn’t do in an IPO. “Plus, as a huge bonus,” she says, “you get to go public with a high profile, seasoned executive, like David Cote, who immediately brings a ton of value to your company.”
Ah Dave Cote. Remember him? Former CEO of Honeywell (HON), who had a great run there. As it turns out, Cote may be partly responsible for the SPAC surge. Here’s that story: Cote stepped down as CEO of HON in March 2017 and began to poke around. “Yes, I wrote a book, but I didn’t want to do what other ex-CEOs did, I wanted to do something different,” Cote tells me.
“A friend of mine who I respect suggested doing a SPAC, so I took a long hard look. Over the course of a year, I would say 80% to 90% of the people I spoke with told me not to do one. That it would hurt my reputation. And so I was careful. I didn’t want an asterisk next to my name: ‘Was CEO of Honeywell and also had this lame-ass SPAC.’ But finally I decided there was something there.”
And so Cote teamed up with John Waldron at Goldman Sachs, who was also exploring the idea of getting into SPACs. They took the plunge in September 2018, forming GS Acquisition Holdings Corp., with Cote as executive chairman. A little over a year later, their SPAC bought control of Vertiv, a Columbus Ohio-based provider of equipment and services for data centers, from Platinum Equity, a private equity firm run by the billionaire owner of the Detroit Pistons, Tom Gores. The stock [VRT] which dipped down to $5 in the darkness of last March, is now trading at $21.
With money flooding into SPACs looking for companies to buy and ordinary investors driving up stock prices, risks are rising.
“In some cases there’s 100% speculation,” says Kristi Marvin. “The one that worries me the most right now is Churchill Capital [founded and run by veteran banker Michael Klein] About a month ago, it came out as a rumor that Churchill was in negotiations with Lucid Motors, an EV company, which retail investors love. And so they got all excited and pushed the stock into the $30s. Now, it's a month later, still no deal. That's crazy. It's a big question mark to me if this deal even happens. If there's no deal or Lucid is going to go public via direct listing or traditional IPO, or even with another SPAC, investors are all gonna be running through the door.”
The Wall Street Journal did a piece in November calling into question the performance of SPACs: “SPACs have a poor record of delivering returns. Of 107 that have gone public since 2015 and executed deals, the average return on their common stock has been a loss of 1.4%, according to Renaissance Capital, a research and investment-management firm. During the same period, the average return of companies that went public via IPOs was 49%, the firm says.”
To Atwater’s mind, the collapse of SPAC mania is a “when” not “if” proposition. “The data would suggest it’s very much a very late-cycle phenomenon. I joke that the bar charts of it run the risk of looking like a middle finger by the time they’re done: Nothing, nothing, a little bit of build up, and an enormous spike. Those historically get followed by collapse. Insatiable demand is always inevitably followed by absolutely nonexistent demand. The crowd goes from wanting too much to never having it again.”
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Some SPAC thought from Yahoo Finance (the only worthwhile part of Yahoo). Sorry, no link, morning newsletter, selected paragraphs below:
"The growth has been wack. In 2019, according to SPACInsider, 59 SPACs worth $13 billion were created. Last year there were 248 worth $83 billion. And already, just six weeks into this year, there are 135 SPACs which have raised $40 billion. Many more are on tap.
Essentially SPACs allow sponsors to make big money—for a nominal investment they get a 20% cut of the deal—and for companies to go public. DraftKings (DKNG), Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Nikola (NKLA) all went public through a SPAC last year. The success of DraftKings in particular served as a clarion call. In fact the volume of new SPACs is now outpacing traditional IPOs, according to this excellent graphic made by The Wall Street Journal.
Politics aside, will Kaepernick’s SPAC make any sense? Will it make any money? Kaepernick does have business experience working with Nike, Medium, Apple and others, and he’s not the CEO anyway. But the truth is, and by definition, we have no idea, because as a new SPAC, Mission hasn’t invested in anything yet. So who knows.
That’s the thing about SPACs. The more you dig into them, the more you realize they’re opaque and complicated. They’re also red hot. And that’s not necessarily a great combination.
The growth has been wack. In 2019, according to SPACInsider, 59 SPACs worth $13 billion were created. Last year there were 248 worth $83 billion. And already, just six weeks into this year, there are 135 SPACs which have raised $40 billion. Many more are on tap.
We’ll get back to what that means in the big picture, but first let’s journey deeper into the nitty-gritty of SPACs.
Here’s some more basic concepts:
-A SPAC is a shell company formed to go public for the purpose of acquiring an existing company typically within two years. It’s really a way for a company to go public without doing an IPO, (more on that later.)
-Sometimes SPAC sponsors have a target in mind, sometimes they don’t.
-Typically hedge funds and traders bought SPACs to arbitrage prices of SPAC securities (common stock, warrants and loans—trust me it’s complicated.) But now plain-vanilla investors, both professional and retail, are snapping up SPAC shares.
-SPAC shares are usually issued at $10 and used to trade around that price until a deal is announced, but during this frenzy they have been spiking on rumors. (More on that later too.)
Essentially SPACs allow sponsors to make big money—for a nominal investment they get a 20% cut of the deal—and for companies to go public. DraftKings (DKNG), Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Nikola (NKLA) all went public through a SPAC last year. The success of DraftKings in particular served as a clarion call. In fact the volume of new SPACs is now outpacing traditional IPOs, according to this excellent graphic made by The Wall Street Journal.
As for you, Mr. and Ms. Investor, you are just along for the ride.
SPACs have been around since at least 1993, according to this great Bloomberg explainer in the Seattle Times, so why are they hot again now?
Much of it has to do with the one-off year that was 2020. “There were lots of high growth companies needing capital and the traditional IPO process, which takes twice as long anyway, is far riskier in a pandemic and an election year,” says Kristi Marvin of SPACInisder. She also notes that with a SPAC a company can shill itself by predicting forward earnings, which it couldn’t do in an IPO. “Plus, as a huge bonus,” she says, “you get to go public with a high profile, seasoned executive, like David Cote, who immediately brings a ton of value to your company.”
Ah Dave Cote. Remember him? Former CEO of Honeywell (HON), who had a great run there. As it turns out, Cote may be partly responsible for the SPAC surge. Here’s that story: Cote stepped down as CEO of HON in March 2017 and began to poke around. “Yes, I wrote a book, but I didn’t want to do what other ex-CEOs did, I wanted to do something different,” Cote tells me.
“A friend of mine who I respect suggested doing a SPAC, so I took a long hard look. Over the course of a year, I would say 80% to 90% of the people I spoke with told me not to do one. That it would hurt my reputation. And so I was careful. I didn’t want an asterisk next to my name: ‘Was CEO of Honeywell and also had this lame-ass SPAC.’ But finally I decided there was something there.”
And so Cote teamed up with John Waldron at Goldman Sachs, who was also exploring the idea of getting into SPACs. They took the plunge in September 2018, forming GS Acquisition Holdings Corp., with Cote as executive chairman. A little over a year later, their SPAC bought control of Vertiv, a Columbus Ohio-based provider of equipment and services for data centers, from Platinum Equity, a private equity firm run by the billionaire owner of the Detroit Pistons, Tom Gores. The stock [VRT] which dipped down to $5 in the darkness of last March, is now trading at $21.
With money flooding into SPACs looking for companies to buy and ordinary investors driving up stock prices, risks are rising.
“In some cases there’s 100% speculation,” says Kristi Marvin. “The one that worries me the most right now is Churchill Capital [founded and run by veteran banker Michael Klein] About a month ago, it came out as a rumor that Churchill was in negotiations with Lucid Motors, an EV company, which retail investors love. And so they got all excited and pushed the stock into the $30s. Now, it's a month later, still no deal. That's crazy. It's a big question mark to me if this deal even happens. If there's no deal or Lucid is going to go public via direct listing or traditional IPO, or even with another SPAC, investors are all gonna be running through the door.”
The Wall Street Journal did a piece in November calling into question the performance of SPACs: “SPACs have a poor record of delivering returns. Of 107 that have gone public since 2015 and executed deals, the average return on their common stock has been a loss of 1.4%, according to Renaissance Capital, a research and investment-management firm. During the same period, the average return of companies that went public via IPOs was 49%, the firm says.”
To Atwater’s mind, the collapse of SPAC mania is a “when” not “if” proposition. “The data would suggest it’s very much a very late-cycle phenomenon. I joke that the bar charts of it run the risk of looking like a middle finger by the time they’re done: Nothing, nothing, a little bit of build up, and an enormous spike. Those historically get followed by collapse. Insatiable demand is always inevitably followed by absolutely nonexistent demand. The crowd goes from wanting too much to never having it again.”
I had just finished reading that from Yahoo Finance, as I get an email blast from them every morning. It was very interesting, with a lot of background on the SPAC-a-thon going on now.
I've done a teeny bit of SPAC-related buying, most notably DKNG, which has done very well for me so far. But this isn't my kind of investing really, so I won't do much. I'm not a trader but a boring, long-term, buy-and-holdish guy. Yawn!
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Serious question. What would be the benefit of someone like Lucid Motors merging with a SPAC.
Clearly there are a lot of people willing to pump money into their company, regardless of going public via SPAC.
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Some SPAC thought from Yahoo Finance (the only worthwhile part of Yahoo). Sorry, no link, morning newsletter, selected paragraphs below:
"The growth has been wack. In 2019, according to SPACInsider, 59 SPACs worth $13 billion were created. Last year there were 248 worth $83 billion. And already, just six weeks into this year, there are 135 SPACs which have raised $40 billion. Many more are on tap.
Essentially SPACs allow sponsors to make big money—for a nominal investment they get a 20% cut of the deal—and for companies to go public. DraftKings (DKNG), Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Nikola (NKLA) all went public through a SPAC last year. The success of DraftKings in particular served as a clarion call. In fact the volume of new SPACs is now outpacing traditional IPOs, according to this excellent graphic made by The Wall Street Journal.
Politics aside, will Kaepernick’s SPAC make any sense? Will it make any money? Kaepernick does have business experience working with Nike, Medium, Apple and others, and he’s not the CEO anyway. But the truth is, and by definition, we have no idea, because as a new SPAC, Mission hasn’t invested in anything yet. So who knows.
That’s the thing about SPACs. The more you dig into them, the more you realize they’re opaque and complicated. They’re also red hot. And that’s not necessarily a great combination.
The growth has been wack. In 2019, according to SPACInsider, 59 SPACs worth $13 billion were created. Last year there were 248 worth $83 billion. And already, just six weeks into this year, there are 135 SPACs which have raised $40 billion. Many more are on tap.
We’ll get back to what that means in the big picture, but first let’s journey deeper into the nitty-gritty of SPACs.
Here’s some more basic concepts:
-A SPAC is a shell company formed to go public for the purpose of acquiring an existing company typically within two years. It’s really a way for a company to go public without doing an IPO, (more on that later.)
-Sometimes SPAC sponsors have a target in mind, sometimes they don’t.
-Typically hedge funds and traders bought SPACs to arbitrage prices of SPAC securities (common stock, warrants and loans—trust me it’s complicated.) But now plain-vanilla investors, both professional and retail, are snapping up SPAC shares.
-SPAC shares are usually issued at $10 and used to trade around that price until a deal is announced, but during this frenzy they have been spiking on rumors. (More on that later too.)
Essentially SPACs allow sponsors to make big money—for a nominal investment they get a 20% cut of the deal—and for companies to go public. DraftKings (DKNG), Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Nikola (NKLA) all went public through a SPAC last year. The success of DraftKings in particular served as a clarion call. In fact the volume of new SPACs is now outpacing traditional IPOs, according to this excellent graphic made by The Wall Street Journal.
As for you, Mr. and Ms. Investor, you are just along for the ride.
SPACs have been around since at least 1993, according to this great Bloomberg explainer in the Seattle Times, so why are they hot again now?
Much of it has to do with the one-off year that was 2020. “There were lots of high growth companies needing capital and the traditional IPO process, which takes twice as long anyway, is far riskier in a pandemic and an election year,” says Kristi Marvin of SPACInisder. She also notes that with a SPAC a company can shill itself by predicting forward earnings, which it couldn’t do in an IPO. “Plus, as a huge bonus,” she says, “you get to go public with a high profile, seasoned executive, like David Cote, who immediately brings a ton of value to your company.”
Ah Dave Cote. Remember him? Former CEO of Honeywell (HON), who had a great run there. As it turns out, Cote may be partly responsible for the SPAC surge. Here’s that story: Cote stepped down as CEO of HON in March 2017 and began to poke around. “Yes, I wrote a book, but I didn’t want to do what other ex-CEOs did, I wanted to do something different,” Cote tells me.
“A friend of mine who I respect suggested doing a SPAC, so I took a long hard look. Over the course of a year, I would say 80% to 90% of the people I spoke with told me not to do one. That it would hurt my reputation. And so I was careful. I didn’t want an asterisk next to my name: ‘Was CEO of Honeywell and also had this lame-ass SPAC.’ But finally I decided there was something there.”
And so Cote teamed up with John Waldron at Goldman Sachs, who was also exploring the idea of getting into SPACs. They took the plunge in September 2018, forming GS Acquisition Holdings Corp., with Cote as executive chairman. A little over a year later, their SPAC bought control of Vertiv, a Columbus Ohio-based provider of equipment and services for data centers, from Platinum Equity, a private equity firm run by the billionaire owner of the Detroit Pistons, Tom Gores. The stock [VRT] which dipped down to $5 in the darkness of last March, is now trading at $21.
With money flooding into SPACs looking for companies to buy and ordinary investors driving up stock prices, risks are rising.
“In some cases there’s 100% speculation,” says Kristi Marvin. “The one that worries me the most right now is Churchill Capital [founded and run by veteran banker Michael Klein] About a month ago, it came out as a rumor that Churchill was in negotiations with Lucid Motors, an EV company, which retail investors love. And so they got all excited and pushed the stock into the $30s. Now, it's a month later, still no deal. That's crazy. It's a big question mark to me if this deal even happens. If there's no deal or Lucid is going to go public via direct listing or traditional IPO, or even with another SPAC, investors are all gonna be running through the door.”
The Wall Street Journal did a piece in November calling into question the performance of SPACs: “SPACs have a poor record of delivering returns. Of 107 that have gone public since 2015 and executed deals, the average return on their common stock has been a loss of 1.4%, according to Renaissance Capital, a research and investment-management firm. During the same period, the average return of companies that went public via IPOs was 49%, the firm says.”
To Atwater’s mind, the collapse of SPAC mania is a “when” not “if” proposition. “The data would suggest it’s very much a very late-cycle phenomenon. I joke that the bar charts of it run the risk of looking like a middle finger by the time they’re done: Nothing, nothing, a little bit of build up, and an enormous spike. Those historically get followed by collapse. Insatiable demand is always inevitably followed by absolutely nonexistent demand. The crowd goes from wanting too much to never having it again.”
Investment advise from an article that starts out "the growth has been wack". Quality.
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Investment advise from an article that starts out "the growth has been wack". Quality.
Pretty sure there wasn't any advice, or even any advise, offered.
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StillAWarrior,
I see the stock was up a bit more yesterday to close at 12.80, indicating the market thinks there is a smallish possibility that someone comes in with a higher bid than EA's 12.50. If this was completely a done deal, you'd likely see the stock trading a hare under 12.50, basically the time value of money until the expected close date.
So, as you said, you have a few options:
1) Still on the stock in anticipation that another buyer comes calling at something higher than $12.80
2) Sell now and grab the extra $0.30/share over the buyout price
3) If no other buyer comes forth, the stock will likely drop to ~$12.47; you could sell then rather than wait around for that extra $0.03/share
4) Wait it out until close and take $12.50
The biggest factor is how likely you think it is that another buyer jumps in at something more than $12.50/share.
Thank you. I decided No. 2 was the way to go. It's my understanding that both EA and Glu have already agreed to the deal, so I don't know if another buyer even has the opportunity to come in. Ultimately, it was such a small stake that I figured any fluctuations within the range I was seeing was just the equivalent of a cup of coffee, so I don't see a lot of reason to ride it out. I'm in the process of liquidating the stuff in my RH account, so I figured now was as good of a time as any. Thank you again.
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Thank you. I decided No. 2 was the way to go. It's my understanding that both EA and Glu have already agreed to the deal, so I don't know if another buyer even has the opportunity to come in. Ultimately, it was such a small stake that I figured any fluctuations within the range I was seeing was just the equivalent of a cup of coffee, so I don't see a lot of reason to ride it out. I'm in the process of liquidating the stuff in my RH account, so I figured now was as good of a time as any. Thank you again.
Probably a good move.
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If you had 500 dollars to invest and wanted to be a little bit on the riskier side, what would you invest in?
You'd be up about 50% if you'd have done what I said. ;D
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I’m taking a spin at the roulette wheel on NOK. Just placed an order for a few hundred shares.
I didn't buy nearly as much, but yeah...this one hasn't aged well.
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Institutional Investor unveiled the 20th edition of its Rich List, one of the most watched rankings of hedge fund managers’ performance. Every year, financial tycoons pore over the magazine’s estimates of whose fortunes are up the most.
Last year, the top 25 managers earned $32 billion even as the economy crashed and markets wobbled. Over all, hedge funds returned 11.6 percent last year, according to Hedge Fund Research, their best performance in a decade but not enough to keep pace with the S&P 500, which was up 16 percent.
Here are the top earners, according to the list:
Izzy Englander of Millennium Management, who earned an estimated $3.8 billion and whose flagship fund produced a 26 percent return.
Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies, who earned $2.6 billion and whose flagship generated a 76 percent return (but whose fund open to outside investors lost big).
Chase Coleman of Tiger Global Management, who earned $2.5 billion and whose top fund returned 48 percent.
Ken Griffin of Citadel, who earned $1.8 billion and whose main fund returned 24 percent. (The firm has made headlines for other reasons, too.)
Steve Cohen of Point72 Asset Management and David Tepper of Appaloosa Management both earned an estimated $1.7 billion.
The rest of the best: Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management ($1.6 billion), Andreas Halvorsen of Viking Global Investors and Scott Shleifer of Tiger Global (both $1.5 billion), and Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management ($1.4 billion).
+++
So these guys made gazillions while the funds they managed, collectively, didn't come close to gaining what a simple investment in SPY would have ... and a few of their hedge funds lost investors major money.
Good work if you can get it!
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So these guys made gazillions while the funds they managed, collectively, didn't come close to gaining what a simple investment in SPY would have ... and a few of their hedge funds lost investors major money.
Good work if you can get it!
Something the TSmith34 SPAC looks to emulate. Send your money folks!
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+++
So these guys made gazillions while the funds they managed, collectively, didn't come close to gaining what a simple investment in SPY would have ... and a few of their hedge funds lost investors major money.
Good work if you can get it!
Yep—it’s like the Fat Jacks and Slim Jims of the world. They make a ton of $ on providing info...not on the bet.
If they were on the wrong side of the bet?.....doesn’t matter! They still got paid!
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Gamestop
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Crap. I bet my entire portfolio on UNC.
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Disney cracked 200 today. Despite the crushing hit their earnings were dealt by the pandemic.
DIS is a resilient, well-run company. Smartly pivoted to streaming.
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Yeah, I must be ready for a sweater vest because I don't get this (from NYT Morning Brief):
People are paying big money for gifs
"Last month, someone bought an animated gif of a flying cat for more than $500,000. A short video by the artist Beeple went for almost $7 million. Anyone can still view or share the clips. So what’s the point of owning them?
It may not make sense to everyone — and has elements of a financial bubble. It mostly comes down to very expensive bragging rights, as well as the potential of reselling it for more money.
These rights are known as NFTs, short for “nonfungible tokens.” “It seems crazy to do that for something purely digital that can be easily copied and shared across the internet,” Erin Griffith, a Times tech reporter who has written about the trend, told us. “But the popularity of NFTs shows that people are willing to pay for special, scarce collector’s items.”
The technology has made it easier for artists, musicians and sports franchises to make money from digital goods. The N.B.A. recently introduced a series of NFTs, Top Shot, that turn highlight clips into trading cards. In music, the latest album by Kings of Leon is an NFT."
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Yeah, I must be ready for a sweater vest because I don't get this (from NYT Morning Brief):
People are paying big money for gifs
"Last month, someone bought an animated gif of a flying cat for more than $500,000. A short video by the artist Beeple went for almost $7 million. Anyone can still view or share the clips. So what’s the point of owning them?
It may not make sense to everyone — and has elements of a financial bubble. It mostly comes down to very expensive bragging rights, as well as the potential of reselling it for more money.
These rights are known as NFTs, short for “nonfungible tokens.” “It seems crazy to do that for something purely digital that can be easily copied and shared across the internet,” Erin Griffith, a Times tech reporter who has written about the trend, told us. “But the popularity of NFTs shows that people are willing to pay for special, scarce collector’s items.”
The technology has made it easier for artists, musicians and sports franchises to make money from digital goods. The N.B.A. recently introduced a series of NFTs, Top Shot, that turn highlight clips into trading cards. In music, the latest album by Kings of Leon is an NFT."
How is this different from Honus Wagner baseball cards, game-used jerseys, vintage Air Jordans, Warhols, Rembrandts, or 1960s Muscle Cars?
Do you find those purchases equally baffling?
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How is this different from Honus Wagner baseball cards, game-used jerseys, vintage Air Jordans, Warhols, Rembrandts, or 1960s Muscle Cars?
Do you find those purchases equally baffling?
You don't seem to understand scarcity in this instance.
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How is this different from Honus Wagner baseball cards, game-used jerseys, vintage Air Jordans, Warhols, Rembrandts, or 1960s Muscle Cars?
Do you find those purchases equally baffling?
Because a digital version of a flying cat gif can be copied with 100% accuracy an infinite amount of times. Despite you owning a token saying that own the original, every other infinite number of copies are identical.
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https://twitter.com/DjangoWexler/status/1369712177418956801?s=20
Prediction: NFT frenzy burns itself out in a year tops.
Actionable advice: Get in if you can and extract EXTREMELY SHORT TERM profits. Flip assets the same day you buy them, bleed suckers who are going to be stuck holding the tulip bulbs in 1638.
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You don't seem to understand scarcity in this instance.
Idk if I agree. There are a lot of hallmarks of the collectors items Heisy mentioned that can be faked, but would otherwise look just like the original. Collectors cars without the original parts, signed sports memorabilia that is forged or even less dramatically is just signed at a different time that makes one less valuable than the others, prints of art, etc. What makes those things valuable are that the authentic version is "the one" and the knowledge of that authenticity. Granted i just learned about NFTs today, so what the hell do I know, but it seems the blockchain code is meant to replicate that "the one-ness." I'm torn about whether NFTs are difference in type or difference in degree to what Heisy mentioned. Are they really altogether different things than tangible collectors' items, or just a different medium that is harder for us fogies to relate to? (Ed. note - I do hope it is the former because this does have a very Black Mirror feel about it that bums me out.)
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Because a digital version of a flying cat gif can be copied with 100% accuracy an infinite amount of times. Despite you owning a token saying that own the original, every other infinite number of copies are identical.
Damn ... so you're saying I shouldn't have ponied up more than $500K for that animated gif of a flying cat?
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Idk if I agree. There are a lot of hallmarks of the collectors items Heisy mentioned that can be faked, but would otherwise look just like the original. Collectors cars without the original parts, signed sports memorabilia that is forged or even less dramatically is just signed at a different time that makes one less valuable than the others, prints of art, etc. What makes those things valuable are that the authentic version is "the one" and the knowledge of that authenticity. Granted i just learned about NFTs today, so what the hell do I know, but it seems the blockchain code is meant to replicate that "the one-ness." I'm torn about whether NFTs are difference in type or difference in degree to what Heisy mentioned. Are they really altogether different things than tangible collectors' items, or just a different medium that is harder for us fogies to relate to? (Ed. note - I do hope it is the former because this does have a very Black Mirror feel about it that bums me out.)
But we aren't talking about forgeries. We are talking about copies. And the copy you bought can be copied without defect an infinite number of times and the 'owner' of that original gains nothing from each copy. They own no rights to the actual data. I'm going to catch heat for this, but it is a lot like buying stock in the Packers a few years ago. You have a fancy piece of paper that says you own something... but with the Packer's stock, you actually get to vote on some BS every year... but ultimately, you bought a vote.
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But we aren't talking about forgeries. We are talking about copies. And the copy you bought can be copied without defect an infinite number of times and the 'owner' of that original gains nothing from each copy. They own no rights to the actual data. I'm going to catch heat for this, but it is a lot like buying stock in the Packers a few years ago. You have a fancy piece of paper that says you own something... but with the Packer's stock, you actually get to vote on some BS every year... but ultimately, you bought a vote.
Point well taken on forgeries. But tangible originals are valuable despite the wide availability of copies all the time. Stamped autographs, art prints, statue reproductions, etc. None of the reproductions have any value, but the authentic original often remains very valuable, and I would venture to guess that's often not just tied to the ability to profit on royalties. I'm not saying NFTs aren't weird, but I'm not sure these are of a completely different species than tangible collectibles.
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I have a question that is not exactly "investing" but it is from the finance/banking world, so perhaps it could be described as "investing adjacent." People here have such varied experience, I figure someone might know and I couldn't think of any thread where it would be more appropriate.
In a banking environment (GS specifically, if it matters), what is a "staffer"? What do they do? What, if anything, does it mean to someone's career trajectory? I understand that there aren't too many of them (and that it's unrelated to the usual Analyst, Associate, VP, etc., career progression), but I don't really understand what it is. I saw this definition (https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Staffer#:~:text=In%20investment%20banking%2C%20an%20employee,staffer%20duties%20as%20extra%20work.) but I was wondering if anyone knew anything more (or if they knew that this definition is garbage).
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I have a question that is not exactly "investing" but it is from the finance/banking world, so perhaps it could be described as "investing adjacent." People here have such varied experience, I figure someone might know and I couldn't think of any thread where it would be more appropriate.
In a banking environment (GS specifically, if it matters), what is a "staffer"? What do they do? What, if anything, does it mean to someone's career trajectory? I understand that there aren't too many of them (and that it's unrelated to the usual Analyst, Associate, VP, etc., career progression), but I don't really understand what it is. I saw this definition (https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Staffer#:~:text=In%20investment%20banking%2C%20an%20employee,staffer%20duties%20as%20extra%20work.) but I was wondering if anyone knew anything more (or if they knew that this definition is garbage).
Do you have a context or an article in which you saw it? That might help
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Idk if I agree. There are a lot of hallmarks of the collectors items Heisy mentioned that can be faked, but would otherwise look just like the original. Collectors cars without the original parts, signed sports memorabilia that is forged or even less dramatically is just signed at a different time that makes one less valuable than the others, prints of art, etc. What makes those things valuable are that the authentic version is "the one" and the knowledge of that authenticity. Granted i just learned about NFTs today, so what the hell do I know, but it seems the blockchain code is meant to replicate that "the one-ness." I'm torn about whether NFTs are difference in type or difference in degree to what Heisy mentioned. Are they really altogether different things than tangible collectors' items, or just a different medium that is harder for us fogies to relate to? (Ed. note - I do hope it is the former because this does have a very Black Mirror feel about it that bums me out.)
I think where the the analogy breaks down with collector cars and the like is that imagine there were an infinite amount of absolutely identical copies and you didn't have to pay a penny to own or use one. What value does the original have?
Further, the owner of the NFT can't monetize their purchase through licensing, etc. Basically, they can only hope someone else is willing to pay more, the Greater Fool theory.
I'm not seeing a big difference between buying a flying cat gif and buying a pet rock, other than about $499,997.
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https://twitter.com/DjangoWexler/status/1369712177418956801?s=20
Prediction: NFT frenzy burns itself out in a year tops.
Actionable advice: Get in if you can and extract EXTREMELY SHORT TERM profits. Flip assets the same day you buy them, bleed suckers who are going to be stuck holding the tulip bulbs in 1638.
It depends on what you mean by NFT frenzy?
If you mean digital art prices will peak, sure? But who cares, this is a side-show.
But if you mean the concept of a Non-Fungible Token (NFT) will disappear altogether, I will definitely take the other side of this trade, and I am in a big way. NFTs are the big game-changer that will disrupt financial business like nothing before it.
Mark Cuban is making a huge bet on them.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/mark-cuban-the-business-id-start-now-would-center-around-blockchain.html
Ditto Alexis Ohanian
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/reddits-alexis-ohanian-nfts-trading-card-boom-will-be-big-for-womens-sports.html
Bottom line DeFi (decentralized finance) and NFTs are going to turn the current CeFi (centralized finance) on its head. They are ride-sharing and traditional banks are taxis.
I'd be most worried if I work at a large bank, traditional banks will be about as lucrative as a taxi medallion in 5 to 10 years.
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I think where the the analogy breaks down with collector cars and the like is that imagine there were an infinite amount of absolutely identical copies and you didn't have to pay a penny to own or use one. What value does the original have?
Further, the owner of the NFT can't monetize their purchase through licensing, etc. Basically, they can only hope someone else is willing to pay more, the Greater Fool theory.
I'm not seeing a big difference between buying a flying cat gif and buying a pet rock, other than about $499,997.
I think we are confusing digital art (and its desirability) and NFTs. One is a personal taste/preference, the other is a new technology that has powerful disruptive potential.
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It depends on what you mean by NFT frenzy?
If you mean digital art prices will peak, sure? But who cares, this is a side-show.
But if you mean the concept of a Non-Fungible Token (NFT) will disappear altogether, I will definitely take the other side of this trade, and I am in a big way. NFTs are the big game-changer that will disrupt financial business like nothing before it.
Mark Cuban is making a huge bet on them.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/mark-cuban-the-business-id-start-now-would-center-around-blockchain.html
Ditto Alexis Ohanian
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/reddits-alexis-ohanian-nfts-trading-card-boom-will-be-big-for-womens-sports.html
Bottom line DeFi (decentralized finance) and NFTs are going to turn the current CeFi (centralized finance) on its head. They are ride-sharing and traditional banks are taxis.
I'd be most worried if I work at a large bank, they will be about as lucrative as a taxi medallion in 5 to 10 years.
This I can agree with. Learning about DeFi is essential to anyone who is interested in investment.
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It depends on what you mean by NFT frenzy?
If you mean digital art prices will peak, sure? But who cares, this is a side-show.
But if you mean the concept of a Non-Fungible Token (NFT) will disappear altogether, I will definitely take the other side of this trade, and I am in a big way. NFTs are the big game-changer that will disrupt financial business like nothing before it.
Mark Cuban is making a huge bet on them.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/mark-cuban-the-business-id-start-now-would-center-around-blockchain.html
Ditto Alexis Ohanian
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/reddits-alexis-ohanian-nfts-trading-card-boom-will-be-big-for-womens-sports.html
Bottom line DeFi (decentralized finance) and NFTs are going to turn the current CeFi (centralized finance) on its head. They are ride-sharing and traditional banks are taxis.
I'd be most worried if I work at a large bank, they will be about as lucrative as a taxi medallion in 5 to 10 years.
I agree with this, NFTs will have uses, but that is separate from the value of a flying cat gif with an NFT attached to it.
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NFTs will change our understanding of the capital stack ... what is equity and what is a bond within the existing capital structure.
Companies will be able to slice and dice their equity ownership and financing possibilities in ways they cannot even imagine now.
Companies can sell ownership in specific products, business lines or even RD projects (each is its own NFT token). With the ability to program smart contracts within an NFT, they can program in royalties that revert back to the company.
When it comes to financing, they can borrow against specific assets, goodwill, or even future revenues. Again, with smart contracts, covenants can be programmed in.
This might explain why the coming coinbase IPO might be valued more than the ICE/NYSE. The NYSE is a dying technology.
Bottom line, the concept of a stock market/bond market could go away ... it will be replaced with something far more robust with far better opportunities.
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NFTs will change our understanding of the capital stack ... what is equity and what is a bond within the existing capital structure.
Companies will be able to slice and dice their equity ownership and financing possibilities in ways they cannot even imagine now.
Companies can sell ownership in specific products, business lines or even RD projects (each is its own NFT token). With the ability to program smart contracts within an NFT, they can program in royalties that revert back to the company.
When it comes to financing, they can borrow against specific assets, goodwill, or even future revenues. Again, with smart contracts, covenants can be programmed in.
This might explain why the coming coinbase IPO might be valued more than the ICE/NYSE. The NYSE is a dying technology.
Bottom line, the concept of a stock market/bond market could go away ... it will be replaced with something far more robust with far better opportunities.
Agree. Coinbase IPO is getting a healthy chunk of my funny munny.
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NFTs will change our understanding of the capital stack ... what is equity and what is a bond within the existing capital structure.
Companies will be able to slice and dice their equity ownership and financing possibilities in ways they cannot even imagine now.
Companies can sell ownership in specific products, business lines or even RD projects (each is its own NFT token). With the ability to program smart contracts within an NFT, they can program in royalties that revert back to the company.
When it comes to financing, they can borrow against specific assets, goodwill, or even future revenues. Again, with smart contracts, covenants can be programmed in.
This might explain why the coming coinbase IPO might be valued more than the ICE/NYSE. The NYSE is a dying technology.
Bottom line, the concept of a stock market/bond market could go away ... it will be replaced with something far more robust with far better opportunities.
Thanks for this explanation.
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Along those lines .. I've always wondered about the Warrior Logo.
Maybe a dozen years ago, the MU Warrior logo was no where to be found on the internets. So I scanned a paper copy in, and did some photoshopping to sharpen it up, get the colors uniform, remove dust, etc.
I posted it in various places, but also created a logo archive on the wiki and uploaded a whole library of images (https://wiki.muscoop.com/doku.php/nickname/logo_archive). Naturally, google picked that up for all future searches.
I believe that .. when you see a Warrior logo online, you're looking at my scan/original.
I wish I would have added an extra swoosh in the feather or something, so I'd always know that was my handiwork. 8-)
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Along those lines .. I've always wondered about the Warrior Logo.
Maybe a dozen years ago, the MU Warrior logo was no where to be found on the internets. So I scanned a paper copy in, and did some photoshopping to sharpen it up, get the colors uniform, remove dust, etc.
I posted it in various places, but also created a logo archive on the wiki and uploaded a whole library of images (https://wiki.muscoop.com/doku.php/nickname/logo_archive). Naturally, google picked that up for all future searches.
I believe that .. when you see a Warrior logo online, you're looking at my scan/original.
I wish I would have added an extra swoosh in the feather or something, so I'd always know that was my handiwork. 8-)
I'll give you $4.7 million for it!
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I have a question that is not exactly "investing" but it is from the finance/banking world, so perhaps it could be described as "investing adjacent." People here have such varied experience, I figure someone might know and I couldn't think of any thread where it would be more appropriate.
In a banking environment (GS specifically, if it matters), what is a "staffer"? What do they do? What, if anything, does it mean to someone's career trajectory? I understand that there aren't too many of them (and that it's unrelated to the usual Analyst, Associate, VP, etc., career progression), but I don't really understand what it is. I saw this definition (https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Staffer#:~:text=In%20investment%20banking%2C%20an%20employee,staffer%20duties%20as%20extra%20work.) but I was wondering if anyone knew anything more (or if they knew that this definition is garbage).
Super broad word that has no real meaning other than a synonym for employee or worker. Usually used by journalists who have already deployed “employee” or “worker” far too many times in their articles already.
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The always-amusing Elon Musk apparently has changed his official title.
He's now the Technoking of Tesla.
EDIT: Now I see it's just an additional title. He's still gonna be CEO.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3672487-elon-musk-becomes-technoking-of-tesla?mail_subject=tsla-elon-musk-becomes-technoking-of-tesla&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
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The always-amusing Elon Musk apparently has changed his official title.
He's now the Technoking of Tesla.
EDIT: Now I see it's just an additional title. He's still gonna be CEO.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3672487-elon-musk-becomes-technoking-of-tesla?mail_subject=tsla-elon-musk-becomes-technoking-of-tesla&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
The CFO changing to Master of Coin is even better, at least for GOT fans.
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The CFO changing to Master of Coin is even better, at least for GOT fans.
Yeah, that was funny.
Musk is a piece of work -- albeit a rich MFg piece of work!
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Super broad word that has no real meaning other than a synonym for employee or worker. Usually used by journalists who have already deployed “employee” or “worker” far too many times in their articles already.
I agree that journalists use it as a generic synonym for "employee," but I've learned that in the industry it often has a different specific meaning. It apparently is used to refer to someone who is tasked with making work assignments to other employees (i.e., "staffing" projects/deals). It's not a formal job title, but the "staffer" is someone who is given an additional job responsibility.
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The cryptocurrency exchange FTX is seeking naming rights for the city’s NBA arena, currently known as AmericanAirlines Arena.
Miami-Dade County took over branding deals in 2018 and is supposed to pay the team $2 million per year, sponsor or no (American’s contract ended in 2019).
The FTX agreement is nearly final, pending a Friday vote by county commissioners. “It’s awesome that we’ve attracted a huge cryptocurrency exchange,” Mr. Suarez said, noting that FTX’s bid “complements the brand” that Miami is establishing.
It would be the NBA's first crypto sponsorship of an arena, The Miami Herald notes, but it would also tie a county revenue stream to a relatively young exchange and CEO.
FTX was founded in 2019 and is run by Samuel Bankman-Fried, a 28-year-old billionaire who was one of the biggest donors to President Biden’s campaign.
Mayor Francis Suarez of Miami is selling his city as the world’s cryptocurrency capital. “We want to be on the next wave of innovation,” he told the NYT.
To make that happen, Suarez said he was “refashioning” the city’s “fun in the sun” image. Thanks in part to the mayor’s marketing efforts, tech and finance titans have flocked to Miami during the pandemic.
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anyone into XRP/ripple? was 0.25 a few moths ago. i decided to take a flyer on it at 0.55 and just sit back & watch. my opinion-the SEC may try to act as big brother until the big guys have their fill and the price is up up and away, then let the "little guys" pick up the crumbs. very limited places you can trade it. uphold is the one i chose. i'm a little unclear on how long they hold it, but you can invest it right away. i'm long on it with only a couple $K so 30-60-90 days no matter
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anyone into XRP/ripple? was 0.25 a few moths ago. i decided to take a flyer on it at 0.55 and just sit back & watch. my opinion-the SEC may try to act as big brother until the big guys have their fill and the price is up up and away, then let the "little guys" pick up the crumbs. very limited places you can trade it. uphold is the one i chose. i'm a little unclear on how long they hold it, but you can invest it right away. i'm long on it with only a couple $K so 30-60-90 days no matter
XRP is a big time stay away for me. Ripple isn't decentralized.
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The minimum wage would be $44 an hour if it had grown at the same rate as Wall Street bonuses
https://www.businessinsider.com/minimum-wage-would-be-44-per-hour-if-it-grew-at-wall-street-bonus-rate-2021-3?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20210330&instance_id=28636&nl=dealbook®i_id=108420427&segment_id=54486&te=1&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
The chaos that the coronavirus pandemic unleashed on America's economy turned out to be a major boon for Wall Street traders, according to new data from the New York state comptroller's office.
Wall Street firms paid their New York City-based traders an average bonus of $184,000 last year, a 10% increase from 2019, New York's comptroller, Thomas DiNapoli, said in a press release Friday.
But those paydays have been skyrocketing for decades. Since 1985, Wall Street traders' bonuses have grown 1,217% — and that's just part of their overall pay, which was more than $406,000 on average in 2019, according to data from DiNapoli's office.
By comparison, the federal minimum wage has flatlined at $7.25 an hour — or $15,080 annually — for 12 consecutive years. When adjusted for inflation, it has actually decreased by 11% since 1985.
If the minimum wage had instead grown at the same rate as Wall Street bonuses, it would be $44.12 an hour today.
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I agree that journalists use it as a generic synonym for "employee," but I've learned that in the industry it often has a different specific meaning. It apparently is used to refer to someone who is tasked with making work assignments to other employees (i.e., "staffing" projects/deals). It's not a formal job title, but the "staffer" is someone who is given an additional job responsibility.
This is correct. A staffer is someone who is in charge of allocating work. In the banking world staffers will assign employees to work on specific deals/assignments. Typically, there will be some senior people who will be attached to a deal because they are the ones who brought in the work in the first place, and then the rest of the deal team will be need to be assigned to the project.
This can be tricky because most employees will be in a variety of different phases on current projects. Banks do their best to make sure all employees are assigned to a project at all times to maximize revenue. If you're 90% done with your current project, it's not so bad to be assigned to a new one because you'll be wrapping up soon and will be ready to move on. But if there aren't many people in that position, then people will be asked to take on 2 projects at the same time, which can eat up a ton of time. This is why there are a lot of finmeme jokes about avoiding staffers. No one wants to be double booked. Being staffed to multiple deals at a time can lead to very long days and essentially eliminates any free time you may have.
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Six days after putting it up for auction on the popular NFT marketplace OpenSea, Croatian tennis player Oleksandra Oliynykova sold exclusive lifetime ownership of part of her right arm for more than $5,000.
https://www.sportico.com/business/commerce/2021/croatian-tennis-player-sells-arm-nft-experiment-1234626090/
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This sounds like the Polka King premise.
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anyone into XRP/ripple? was 0.25 a few moths ago. i decided to take a flyer on it at 0.55 and just sit back & watch. my opinion-the SEC may try to act as big brother until the big guys have their fill and the price is up up and away, then let the "little guys" pick up the crumbs. very limited places you can trade it. uphold is the one i chose. i'm a little unclear on how long they hold it, but you can invest it right away. i'm long on it with only a couple $K so 30-60-90 days no matter
just an fyi-it hit 0.86 today
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just an fyi-it hit 0.86 today
Last time I checked...91
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$1.05....
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Lots of red flags with Ripple.
I do have some Bitcoin and Litecoin.
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I have owned XRP for several years and have been too lazy to sell it. With the recent upside move I think I might use this a reason to get off my ass and sell it.
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Couple of years ago, at the highs (which is my thing), I bought a basket of coins. LTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BNB and SUB. I did not buy any BTC, but wish I had. I spread a couple thousand over that basket. I put most into ETH and LTC. But a nice chunk in BNB, XRP, XLM got less and SUB the least amount.
Of all of them, ETH has done well, about a triple. Still under water on LTC. BNB has been a rocket, from a purchase price of $13 to $381.11 today. Obviously wish I had bought more of that. SUB was delisted or whatever happens to a coin when it goes belly up. And still under water on XRP and XLM as well.
However, my overall investment is up five fold so far. Since it was "play" money I am going to leave it all and see where it is in 10 years or so....Still remember looking at bitcoin in 2012 at $12 per coin, but not being able to overcome the barriers to entry. Too bad I did not spend a bit more time trying to figure it out then.
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they've made it a little more difficult to buy xrp as of a couple weeks ago, but if sec ruling goes in the "good guys" favor, this could get interesting. i got it in uphold and even that one kept declining transfer from associated bank. it went thru on my much smaller community bank which has like 2 branches. i've been with them for over 30 years
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SE
I did similar about three years ago and got antsy on Bitcoin and have traded it too many times. I wish I held out the whole time. My thought was similar to yours and do believe owning these probably makes sense for the long haul.
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I'm taking an informal poll to see how much you know or understand about any of this stuff. No right answer, this is more curiosity as to how deep you are into the crypto world. And a non-crypto investing thread might be the perfect place to ask.
Has anyone ...
* staked coins in liquidity pools?
* done any yield farming?
* store coins in a wallet (i.e., metamask) or cold storage (ie., ledger)?
* bought an NFT?
* traded through an AMM (automatic market maker)?
* borrowed against a coin on collateral?
* Used a futures contract like perpetual or synthetic?
* bought an ICO?
* Know what DeFi is?
* Know What Uniswap is?
* Know the difference between the Binance Smart Chain and the Ethereum Network?
* know what gas fees are?
* Know what layer 2 scaling solutions are?
* Know what ETH 2.0 means?
* Know what ERC-20 tokens are?
* Know what web 3.0/IPFS/Filecoin are and why I lumped them all together?
Why do I ask? Because I believe the answer to the questions above represents the biggest thing that is about to happen to finance/banking ... maybe ever. A massive earthquake is coming and everything we know about investing, banking, insurance, money, central banking, trust, estates, etc is about to massively change in ways we cannot begin to understand.
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I'm taking an informal poll to see how much you know or understand about any of this stuff. No right answer, this is more curiosity as to how deep you are into the crypto world. And a non-crypto investing thread might be the perfect place to ask.
Has anyone ...
* staked coins in liquidity pools?
* done any yield farming?
* store coins in a wallet (i.e., metamask) or cold storage (ie., ledger)?
* bought an NFT?
* traded through an AMM (automatic market maker)?
* borrowed against a coin on collateral?
* Used a futures contract like perpetual or synthetic?
* bought an ICO?
* Know what DeFi is?
* Know What Uniswap is?
* Know the difference between the Binance Smart Chain and the Ethereum Network?
* know what gas fees are?
* Know what layer 2 scaling solutions are?
* Know what ETH 2.0 means?
* Know what ERC-20 tokens are?
* Know what web 3.0/IPFS/Filecoin are and why I lumped them all together?
Why do I ask? Because I believe the answer to the question above represents the biggest thing that is about to happen happened to finance/banking ... maybe ever. A massive earthquake is coming and everything we know about investing, banking, insurance, money, central banking, trust, estates, etc is about to massively change in ways we cannot begin to understand.
I can say yes to 2/3 of these. Also, I generally agree. And a lot of people will be left on the wayside by smart contracts alone. The amount of pure bureaucracy (and the jobs that go with it!) they will remove is what I think the largest disruption in the workforce will be outside of automated transportation.
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NFT risk
"The debate over whether NFTs will have a lasting impact on the art market is still ongoing, but headlines are still being made by the man who stoked NFT mania. Anyone trying to profit from NFTs is "taking a huge risk," Vignesh Sundaresan announced in an interview, adding that "it's even crazier than investing in crypto." Sundaresan, also known by the online moniker MetaKovan, shelled out $69M last month for JPEG ownership and a hyperlink of Beeple's Everydays: The First 5,000 Days.
Waning sentiment can be seen in recent auctions. Average prices for NFTs tracked by NonFungible.com slumped almost 70% from a peak in February through early April. B.20, a token created by MetaKovan to allow "shared ownership of an open art project," has also fallen to around $5 from $23 since he won the Christie's auction for Everydays on March 11.
Why did he do it? "It's not primarily an investment," Sundaresan declared, saying his motivation was to support the NFT artist and showcase the technology. "I had this opportunity to be part of this very important shift in how art has been perceived for centuries," he added in another recent interview. To note, Sundaresan paid 42,000 Ether (ETH-USD) for the piece of art, which was probably worth a whole lot less when he first started investing in crypto in 2013.
Long-term outlook: Sundaresan described the technology as an continuing innovation that will permit a "new patronage movement" for artists and other content creators, though the hype around the highest-priced NFTs will likely fade. "I don't think NFTs will hold the same kind of hype forever around high-value items," he added. "The market will get divided. There will be very few high-value items and an infinite number of very low-valued items."
Source: Yahoo Finance
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I'm taking an informal poll to see how much you know or understand about any of this stuff. No right answer, this is more curiosity as to how deep you are into the crypto world. And a non-crypto investing thread might be the perfect place to ask.
Has anyone ...
* staked coins in liquidity pools?
* done any yield farming?
* store coins in a wallet (i.e., metamask) or cold storage (ie., ledger)?
* bought an NFT?
* traded through an AMM (automatic market maker)?
* borrowed against a coin on collateral?
* Used a futures contract like perpetual or synthetic?
* bought an ICO?
* Know what DeFi is?
* Know What Uniswap is?
* Know the difference between the Binance Smart Chain and the Ethereum Network?
* know what gas fees are?
* Know what layer 2 scaling solutions are?
* Know what ETH 2.0 means?
* Know what ERC-20 tokens are?
* Know what web 3.0/IPFS/Filecoin are and why I lumped them all together?
Why do I ask? Because I believe the answer to the questions above represents the biggest thing that is about to happen to finance/banking ... maybe ever. A massive earthquake is coming and everything we know about investing, banking, insurance, money, central banking, trust, estates, etc is about to massively change in ways we cannot begin to understand.
I'd be happy to answer your questions, but you'll have to put the bullet points in English first.
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I'm taking an informal poll to see how much you know or understand about any of this stuff. No right answer, this is more curiosity as to how deep you are into the crypto world. And a non-crypto investing thread might be the perfect place to ask.
Has anyone ...
* store coins in a wallet (i.e., metamask) or cold storage (ie., ledger)? Yes, I have a ledger wallet.
* know what gas fees are? Yes.
That's it. The rest is greek to me.
Why do I ask? Because I believe the answer to the questions above represents the biggest thing that is about to happen to finance/banking ... maybe ever. A massive earthquake is coming and everything we know about investing, banking, insurance, money, central banking, trust, estates, etc is about to massively change in ways we cannot begin to understand.
I would be very interested in your comments on the above paragraph. I too believe a massive change is coming, but know so little about it that all I have done is bought some coins and put them away. I think I am going to invest in Coinbase once it is public as well, but beyond that not even sure what to look for.....
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4/14
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“Even though I’m sort of a pro-crypto, pro-Bitcoin maximalist person, I do wonder whether at this point Bitcoin should also be thought in part of as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S,” said Peter Thiel, noted tech investor, on how cryptocurrency threatens the U.S. dollar. “China wants to do things to weaken it, so China’s long Bitcoin."
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“Even though I’m sort of a pro-crypto, pro-Bitcoin maximalist person, I do wonder whether at this point Bitcoin should also be thought in part of as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S,” said Peter Thiel, noted tech investor, on how cryptocurrency threatens the U.S. dollar. “China wants to do things to weaken it, so China’s long Bitcoin."
Peter Thiel, noted trash bag human being.
Strange quote though. Even stranger to post it.
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Peter Thiel, noted trash bag human being.
Strange quote though. Even stranger to post it.
Strange to post a quote from a famous investor about an investment that lots of folks are talking about? OK.
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Strange to post a quote from a famous investor about an investment that lots of folks are talking about? OK.
Why Peter Thiel though? There are quotes from hundreds of dopes that didn't understand bitcoin a few years ago that are in the process of loading their bags.
What is special about his quote? That China is long on BTC? That's asinine, China is long on China and has been for generations.
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Why Peter Thiel though? There are quotes from hundreds of dopes that didn't understand bitcoin a few years ago that are in the process of loading their bags.
What is special about his quote? That China is long on BTC? That's asinine, China is long on China and has been for generations.
I mean, you can hate Thiel for his politics or his personal stuff, but dude co-founded PayPal (which was originally founded in cryptography) and was the first outside investor in Facebook. He's basically one of the most reputable people to talk about Bitcoin/developments secure online payment/new tech. Implying that he's some Johnny Come Lately jumping on the BTC train like everyone else is kind of silly.
Also, while I totally agree China is long China before anything else, that doesn't mean he's point is any less valid if they view BTC as a way to weaken the dollar and, as a result, the US. That seems like exactly the sort of 4D chess that China would play.
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I mean, you can hate Thiel for his politics or his personal stuff, but dude co-founded PayPal (which was originally founded in cryptography) and was the first outside investor in Facebook. He's basically one of the most reputable people to talk about Bitcoin/developments secure online payment/new tech. Implying that he's some Johnny Come Lately jumping on the BTC train like everyone else is kind of silly.
Also, while I totally agree China is long China before anything else, that doesn't mean he's point is any less valid if they view BTC as a way to weaken the dollar and, as a result, the US. That seems like exactly the sort of 4D chess that China would play.
I didn't say he was a JCL. If he truly believe what he says, he'd be dumping his reserves into BTC. But that isn't what his comments were about. His ideology/politics specifically impacts his view of BTC. He is anti China. And that is what was guiding his comments. Elon Musk says that holding BTC is better than holding cash, and he is more wealthy, helped found PayPal, and currently owns Tesla and SpaceX. He is even accepting it as payment for Teslas. Should we listen to him more?
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I didn't say he was a JCL. If he truly believe what he says, he'd be dumping his reserves into BTC. But that isn't what his comments were about. His ideology/politics specifically impacts his view of BTC. He is anti China. And that is what was guiding his comments. Elon Musk says that holding BTC is better than holding cash, and he is more wealthy, helped found PayPal, and currently owns Tesla and SpaceX. He is even accepting it as payment for Teslas. Should we listen to him more?
I think both have valid voices and understandings and opinions that are worth weighing. If someone has understanding and experience with crypto, I’ll listen. It’s the dinosaurs and slow adapters who I avoid, aka Charlie Munger.
I didn’t take anything from his comments to be anti-BTC. Concern about Chinese influence, sure. But I don’t think that automatically makes him a crypto skeptic or any less pro-BTC at its core than Musk.
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I think both have valid voices and understandings and opinions that are worth weighing. If someone has understanding and experience with crypto, I’ll listen. It’s the dinosaurs and slow adapters who I avoid, aka Charlie Munger.
I didn’t take anything from his comments to be anti-BTC. Concern about Chinese influence, sure. But I don’t think that automatically makes him a crypto skeptic or any less pro-BTC at its core than Musk.
Fair enough.
I forgot who was looking for a straight forward explanation of what DeFi is... here is one of the better ones that I have found. If swear words offend you, don't click it.
http://galgitron.net/Post/DeFi-Defined
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Why Peter Thiel though? There are quotes from hundreds of dopes that didn't understand bitcoin a few years ago that are in the process of loading their bags.
What is special about his quote? That China is long on BTC? That's asinine, China is long on China and has been for generations.
I just so happened to see the quote. So I posted it.
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Why do I ask? Because I believe the answer to the questions above represents the biggest thing that is about to happen to finance/banking ... maybe ever. A massive earthquake is coming and everything we know about investing, banking, insurance, money, central banking, trust, estates, etc is about to massively change in ways we cannot begin to understand.
I would be very interested in your comments on the above paragraph. I too believe a massive change is coming, but know so little about it that all I have done is bought some coins and put them away. I think I am going to invest in Coinbase once it is public as well, but beyond that not even sure what to look for.....
A lot of the financial system, especially the banking system extracting rents from the economy while providing little value. This, I believe is why banking/wall street is so hated. They are perceived as taking a lot and providing so little. This is not completely wrong.
This new world promises to replace all of this with permissionless systems via the use of a immutable blockchain and smart contracts. If this promised is realized, and it is by no means guaranteed, everyone gets equal access for the same fee structure, no matter their size. It is not possible to offer "special" deals or services to anyone else.
So, a lot of basic banking functions will switch to this. This includes payments, money transfer (money transfers includes trading and settlement), collateralized lending and borrowing, basic insurance, lotteries, etc.
So this big parts of current "centralized" banks, brokerage, insurance, lotteries, exchanges, etc. go away. The current banks, brokers, insurance still exist, but they lose most of their business and are left with the stuff that cannot be automated in a permissionless system (such as unsecured lending, research services, complex insurance underwriting, etc). They become small boutiques.
Here are some good videos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-O3r2YMWJ4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTMR18fk-nI
Lastly, one of the worst sectors to invest in has been the banks/financial sector. The bank index is back at 1998 levels ... 23 years and no gains. The overall financial sector is back to its 2007 peaks, 14 years and no gains.
The markets are telling us the current financial system has been broken for decades. That is why they have lagged so badly. Now its replacement might be coming into focus.
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“Even though I’m sort of a pro-crypto, pro-Bitcoin maximalist person, I do wonder whether at this point Bitcoin should also be thought in part of as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S,” said Peter Thiel, noted tech investor, on how cryptocurrency threatens the U.S. dollar. “China wants to do things to weaken it, so China’s long Bitcoin."
Funny timing, and not to dogpile but a headline from Marketwatch today was "China’s bitcoin crackdown contradicts Peter Thiel’s belief that it is a ‘financial weapon’ against U.S."
That being said the de-dollarification desire from Russia and Europe is real. There are non-trustworthy actors pushing crypto. Blockchain is still an interesting technology, though I don't believe it will disrupt the finance sector's big players all that much though it will become a part of the backbone of the industry.
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Funny timing, and not to dogpile but a headline from Marketwatch today was "China’s bitcoin crackdown contradicts Peter Thiel’s belief that it is a ‘financial weapon’ against U.S."
That being said the de-dollarification desire from Russia and Europe is real. There are non-trustworthy actors pushing crypto. Blockchain is still an interesting technology, though I don't believe it will disrupt the finance sector's big players all that much though it will become a part of the backbone of the industry.
Interesting comments ... how does it become the back of the industry but not disrupt the big players? I think these two ideas are inconsistent. The only way it becomes the backbone is by being a major disruption to the business model of Wall Street.
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Interesting comments ... how does it become the back of the industry but not disrupt the big players? I think these two ideas are inconsistent. The only way it becomes the backbone is by being a major disruption to the business model of Wall Street.
Agree. Once people realize the cost savings, and safety of a smart contract it will upend the world far more than the smart phone every did.
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Interesting comments ... how does it become the back of the industry but not disrupt the big players? I think these two ideas are inconsistent. The only way it becomes the backbone is by being a major disruption to the business model of Wall Street.
My bad, I was using jargon. Technology backbones and the colloquial "backbone of an industry" are two different things. Swapping out a tech backbone does not disrupt core business model necessarily. Like, do customers really care if you're moving money via ACH, Wire, etc beyond speed and fees? No.
Customer acquisition is still king. Breadth of offerings is still king. Underwriting is still king. Capitalization of FIs is still king. Financial institutions are sales and marketing machines and the underlying technology is secondary to their success and growth.
Even the investing thesis of VCs playing in the crypto space believe that the future of these companies are to become service providers for global FIs. We'll see, though.
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xrp has gone from $1.29 to 1.35 in last 5 minutes up today from 1.06 (over 31%)
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And I finally have a profit in XRP after all these years.
Sucks buying at a high.
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And I finally have a profit in XRP after all these years.
Sucks buying at a high.
i bought some dennison mines, URR and cameco back in 2011-my 10 year hold is finally paying off...Dnn up from 0.50-$1.20 and cameco tickling 17 i was looking at about $25k loss, now they're all back to ground zero. nothing is a loss until you sell obviously
waiting for xrp to settle and see a little sell of to buy some more, a lot of speculation going on with this one as it has become the 4th most traded crypto. think when bitcoin first came out
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bought more at $1.26 a couple of hours ago...xrp $1.44
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A lot of the financial system, especially the banking system extracting rents from the economy while providing little value. This, I believe is why banking/wall street is so hated. They are perceived as taking a lot and providing so little. This is not completely wrong.
This new world promises to replace all of this with permissionless systems via the use of a immutable blockchain and smart contracts. If this promised is realized, and it is by no means guaranteed, everyone gets equal access for the same fee structure, no matter their size. It is not possible to offer "special" deals or services to anyone else.
So, a lot of basic banking functions will switch to this. This includes payments, money transfer (money transfers includes trading and settlement), collateralized lending and borrowing, basic insurance, lotteries, etc.
So this big parts of current "centralized" banks, brokerage, insurance, lotteries, exchanges, etc. go away. The current banks, brokers, insurance still exist, but they lose most of their business and are left with the stuff that cannot be automated in a permissionless system (such as unsecured lending, research services, complex insurance underwriting, etc). They become small boutiques.
Here are some good videos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-O3r2YMWJ4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTMR18fk-nI
Lastly, one of the worst sectors to invest in has been the banks/financial sector. The bank index is back at 1998 levels ... 23 years and no gains. The overall financial sector is back to its 2007 peaks, 14 years and no gains.
The markets are telling us the current financial system has been broken for decades. That is why they have lagged so badly. Now its replacement might be coming into focus.
Say that I agree with all of this.
I get what to short.
What should I buy (in addition to BTC and ETH)?
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rocket
XRP at $1.62 this morning. Glad i as too lazy to sell it again last week. May as well hang on and see what happens.
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Coinbase goes live today. $250, but valuation was closer to $355 last I checked. I'm in for a bunch.
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*sad trombone noises*
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*sad trombone noises*
I'm guessing this bounces around *a lot*. That being said, I picked up a very small position at $330. If Heisy is right about the revolution that is coming to finance, then this is an okay way to take a stab at riding some of those coattails.
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I'm guessing this bounces around *a lot*. That being said, I picked up a very small position at $330. If Heisy is right about the revolution that is coming to finance, then this is an okay way to take a stab at riding some of those coattails.
Oh, and I've said as much for years as well. I got in at a number I am comfortable with, but I could have gotten in where you did.
I haven't lost anything, since I haven't sold anything. I have a very high belief in the product and the company. 8-)
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Wouldn't it cut out the middle man to just buy bitcoin if you believe in cryto enough to buy coinbase?
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What's the bull thesis here? Coinbase seems to be a middle-of-the-road exchange with no moat. Just banking on first-mover advantage?
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What's the bull thesis here? Coinbase seems to be a middle-of-the-road exchange with no moat. Just banking on first-mover advantage?
They've jumped through the SEC hoops, and yes first mover has a huge advantage.
Wouldn't it cut out the middle man to just buy bitcoin if you believe in cryto enough to buy coinbase?
True, but if I believe coinbase will outperform BTC (at least in the short term) then I should invest in coinbase. The news surrounding the IPO plus their marketing blitz will likely introduce more people to crypto and both prices should rise as a result. I think the main thing holding people back on crypto is education of what it is, what it does, and what that means for humanity.
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Anybody buying any interesting stocks that have nothing to do with crypto?
I doubled my BABA position last week, did the same with COST a week or two before that.
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Anybody buying any interesting stocks that have nothing to do with crypto?
I doubled my BABA position last week, did the same with COST a week or two before that.
I've been expanding my IPOE position pre-merger.
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I've been expanding my IPOE position pre-merger.
Haven't heard of that, Ska. What is it?
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Haven't heard of that, Ska. What is it?
That's the Sofi SPAC right? I'll confess the being very SPAC ignorant though, does a share of IPOE convert into a share of Sofi whenever the SPAC merger thing closes?
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Anybody buying any interesting stocks that have nothing to do with crypto?
I doubled my BABA position last week, did the same with COST a week or two before that.
I have a full position in BABA, but added previously in the 220's. I've actually been buying a fairly arcane security known as the S&P 500 index. :)
Also considering reinstituting a buy-write strategy on bank stocks again. Had some nice success with it previously, and fortunately I had everything called away from me just prior to COVID breaking out.
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I have a full position in BABA, but added previously in the 220's. I've actually been buying a fairly arcane security known as the S&P 500 index. :)
Also considering reinstituting a buy-write strategy on bank stocks again. Had some nice success with it previously, and fortunately I had everything called away from me just prior to COVID breaking out.
Can't go too wrong with a long-term keep-on-building-with-SPY strategy.
I don't do options. I'm such a boring investor.
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That's the Sofi SPAC right? I'll confess the being very SPAC ignorant though, does a share of IPOE convert into a share of Sofi whenever the SPAC merger thing closes?
Yep, spot on.
SPACs are holding companies that are publically listed. Their only purpose is to acquire a private company to take them public without the IPO rigmarole.
So if it's 10$ pre merger and 10 post merger. It changes market cap from 10M to 100M because now there are more shares,
SoFi is a retail banking fintech company. I'm long and a customer, so take my statement with a grain of salt.
Bull thesis: They have successfully targeted recent college grads (hello social capital) selling them banking + lending. That has led to high rates because these people tend to be younger with more debt, but surprisingly less risk because SoFi gets to capture all of that college grad revenue. They've recently expanded their offerings to include investing, credit cards, a crypto exchange, insurance, and pre-IPO investing. Their customer acquisition is well targeted, and their upselling of products to existing customers is excellent. SoFi also recently acquired a brick and mortar bank, which allowed them to obtain a bank charter. Being chartered allows them to avoid state usury laws and any other state laws that may interfere with operations.
Bear statement:
0. The merger deal isn't technically finalized. This whole thing has a non 0% chance of going tits-up.
1. We haven't seen their financials, and without going through a real IPO there's risk that their financials aren't going to be audited that hard
2. There's chatter that SPACs are going to be regulated, which is adding some downward pressure pre-merger
3. Customer acquisition & marketing may not be king in the retail finance space, and crypto-bulls may be right that going long any non-crypto finance company is a foolish investment right now
4. Their valuation is higher than Ally, who has more customers and more revenue (though fewer offerings and their app is myopic).
Edit: To specifically answer a part of your question about SPACs I glossed over - Say IPOE buys 30% of SoFi. And the company is valued at 100M. After ticker change the 80M shares of IPOE outstanding turns into 260M units. IPOE keeps 30% but the rest of the capital goes to whoever owns the rest of SoFi (pre-IPO investors, Founders, PIPE, employee perks, CEO, board/advisors, etc).
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Thanks for telling us about IPOE, Ska. Interesting company, and useful information.
I have dabbled a tiny bit in a couple of SPACs in the gambling space (DKNG, DMYD).
With crypto, SPACs, etc, it's a wild time to be an investor. The vast, vast, vast majority of my portfolio is in boring, blue-chip companies because that's where my comfort level is. My largest positions are MSFT and JNJ, followed by PEP, MCD, WEC and AAPL.
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Thanks for telling us about IPOE, Ska. Interesting company, and useful information.
I have dabbled a tiny bit in a couple of SPACs in the gambling space (DKNG, DMYD).
With crypto, SPACs, etc, it's a wild time to be an investor. The vast, vast, vast majority of my portfolio is in boring, blue-chip companies because that's where my comfort level is. My largest positions are MSFT and JNJ, followed by PEP, MCD, WEC and AAPL.
+1. 95% of my portfolio is lazy indexing: ITOT, IXUS, AGG. Not fun to think about or chat about, but that's the real way to wealth.
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I know it's a silly joke of a crypto, but my daughter and I are enjoying Doge. She bought $3.00 worth when it was at 0.003. At her urging I bought a little bit - like $25 - when it was at 0.04 just for something for us to discuss and bond over. $0.18...lol
Edited to add: make that $0.19 (it was $0.16 when I started my initial post) :o
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I know it's a silly joke of a crypto, but my daughter and I are enjoying Doge. She bought $3.00 worth when it was at 0.003. At her urging I bought a little bit - like $25 - when it was at 0.04 just for something for us to discuss and bond over. $0.18...lol
Edited to add: make that $0.19 (it was $0.16 when I started my initial post) :o
sell sell sell sell
Doge is a meme coin, has no use other than gamba, and inflationary as hell (5 billion are added every year!). Buy something that has use.
Or, its your money, do what you want!
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sell sell sell sell
Doge is a meme coin, has no use other than gamba, and inflationary as hell (5 billion are added every year!). Buy something that has use.
Or, its your money, do what you want!
It has use. My daughter and I text back and forth about it. From my perspective, that's $25 well spent. I'd like to think she views it as $3.00 well spent.
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It has use. My daughter and I text back and forth about it. From my perspective, that's $25 well spent. I'd like to think she views it as $3.00 well spent.
Ha, that is an excellent point. Indeed, money well spent.
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It has use. My daughter and I text back and forth about it. From my perspective, that's $25 well spent. I'd like to think she views it as $3.00 well spent.
That's very fair, and it is a good way to introduce crypto to people!
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Ha, that is an excellent point. Indeed, money well spent.
For the record, my other daughter also bought Doge when it was somewhere in the neighborhood of $0.03 and sold it the first time it hit something like $0.06 because she got too nervous. Part of me thinks she might not have the stomach for investing. Part of me thinks she may be the smartest of the group.
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I tripled down on doge at 0.09 and might triple down again. It is fantasy world and I am going to roll the dice. I want courtside tickets for FF when MU returns.
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Doge at .27
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Doge at .27
I’m dying here. Lots of texts with my daughters today. My daughter is currently sitting on something like a 9,000% gain.
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Love it and hope your daughter makes another 9000%
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I’m dying here. Lots of texts with my daughters today. My daughter is currently sitting on something like a 9,000% gain.
My buddy put $500 in an option account during the pandemic. He was a traveling consultant who suddenly had a lot of time on his hands and was always an active investor. But he usually didn’t have the time or attention to trade options. Well in the crazy volatility, he hit 2 massive gap days and turned that $500 into around $8000. He moved $5000 out, kept around $3000 of profits to play with. He got chopped around, bout flat, work started to pick back up, he wasn’t gonna option trade anymore.
But he thought Doge was hilarious, so he dumped the cash into it. He got, literally, 1 million DogeCoins when it was around .003. He sold when it spiked to .01 around the New Year and thought he was George Soros. And also smart enough to take the money and run.
Texting with him today has been hilarious.
“My 3 year old daughter has been glaring at me all day. It’s like she knows Daddy missed out on her college tuition and a pony with his paper hands”
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I'm so thankful that paper hands and diamond hands are making it into the common lexicon.
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Anybody buying any interesting stocks that have nothing to do with crypto?
I doubled my BABA position last week, did the same with COST a week or two before that.
What your thesis with BABA? The Chinese Gov't seems intent on a hostile takeover of the company, shutting down Alipay and marginalizing Jack Ma.
These seem to be huge red flags, which explains why it has sucked in a massive tach rally, reopening trade.
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I’m dying here. Lots of texts with my daughters today. My daughter is currently sitting on something like a 9,000% gain.
It seems to be one big whale right now. When he (Elon?) gets bored, it's over.
The trick is to be out before the rug pull.
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1383063955346710532?s=20
Here's a Dogecoin wallet with $1.3 billion in it that's making some absolutely massive trades in both directions the last couple of days.
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It seems to be one big whale right now. When he (Elon?) gets bored, it's over.
The trick is to be out before the rug pull.
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1383063955346710532?s=20
Here's a Dogecoin wallet with $1.3 billion in it that's making some absolutely massive trades in both directions the last couple of days.
Yup. What I'm worried about is that when this bubble pops a lot of people with small bags are going to feel the pain, and abandon crypto... This after they've been warned that Doge is a meme coin.
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Love it and hope your daughter makes another 9000%
The law of large numbers gets in the way really fast.
Currently, Doge has a market cap of $50 billion. Another 9,000% (or 90x) move puts its market cap at $4.5trillion, or twice as much as all the Russell 2000 stocks.
Currently, the entire crypto universe is $2.1 trillion
Even a 5x move from here (to about $2.50) makes it larger than Ethereum.
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Yup. What I'm worried about is that when this bubble pops a lot of people with small bags are going to feel the pain, and abandon crypto... This after they've been warned that Doge is a meme coin.
Exactly, the $$$ losses might not be big for some, but they will lose interest and leave altogether. That is when the real losses (by not sticking around) will start to pile up.
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The law of large numbers gets in the way really fast.
Currently, Doge has a market cap of $50 billion. Another 9,000% (or 90x) move puts its market cap at $4.5trillion, or twice as much as all the Russell 2000 stocks.
Currently, the entire crypto universe is $2.1 trillion
Even a 5x move from here (to about $2.50) makes it larger than Ethereum.
Not to mention 10,000 are mined every minute. Meaning at $0.37, $3700 must be bought every minute of every day to keep it at the same price.
Good luck to those trying to time the dump on this one... not for me.
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Hards
You may be right, but I am riding it to the Final Four!! Full disclosure---I did downsize position this morning.
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Hards
You may be right, but I am riding it to the Final Four!! Full disclosure---I did downsize position this morning.
If it's funny munny, and I know yours is, its all good, man.
I think today was probably the right day to get out. Pay day, and the hype train is heavy out there... at the top of the mania, best to take the gains and play with the leftovers.
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DJO out here with the rest of you jokers
(https://i.imgur.com/9yhpCz1.png)
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Have 30 minutes to spare? Give Deconstructed a listen to today.
https://play.acast.com/s/1d1223a2-9d05-473b-9e79-c2b65b71d676/cc678489-7001-4f5d-9d4e-ffe807340448
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Have 30 minutes to spare? Give Deconstructed a listen to today.
https://play.acast.com/s/1d1223a2-9d05-473b-9e79-c2b65b71d676/cc678489-7001-4f5d-9d4e-ffe807340448
Nice. Just saw this on rising the other day.
So how do I short cmbs/commercial real estate?
Or, should we even bother? Will government just bail out this entire industry if there's any threat to corporate interests?
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From the NYT's David Gelles:
Companies battered by the pandemic are handing out enormous pay packages to their C.E.O.s, highlighting the sharp divides in a nation on the precipice of an economic boom, but still wracked by steep income inequality.
Executive compensation has, of course, been soaring for decades now. Chief executives of big companies in the U.S. now make, on average, 320 times as much as the typical worker. In 1989, that ratio was 61 to 1.
In years when the profits are flowing and unemployment is low, such disparities are often explained away. But in this pandemic year, corporate P.R. teams are bending over backward to justify their bosses’ big paydays.
When I reached out to the companies mentioned in my article for comment, they responded with infographics, statements from board members and urgent requests for off-the-record phone calls. Here are three of the common tactics they employed:
Don’t believe your eyes:
A Hilton spokesman stressed that the figure in its latest proxy filing did not represent take-home pay for Chris Nassetta, because the company restructured several stock awards. “Said directly, Chris did not take home $55.9 million in 2020,” the spokesman said. “Chris’s actual pay was closer to $20.1 million.” Hilton lost $720 million last year.
An AT&T spokesman emphasized that while John Stankey was awarded compensation worth some $21 million, that wasn’t what he was “paid,” noting that this includes stock awards that may not be realized. Stankey’s actual take-home pay, the spokesman added, was closer to $10.4 million. AT&T lost $5.4 billion last year.
It could’ve been even more:
Boeing wanted to make clear how much money Dave Calhoun “voluntarily elected to forgo to support the company through the Covid-19 pandemic” — some $3.6 million, according to a spokesman. Nonetheless, Calhoun was awarded $21.1 million last year, while Boeing lost $12 billion.
Disney stressed that “the impact of the pandemic on our businesses led to a meaningful reduction” in executive pay, noting that executive chairman Bob Iger, who was awarded $21 million last fiscal year, gave up his salary for much of that time. Disney lost $2.8 billion in the period.
The great man theory:
Starbucks, which awarded Kevin Johnson $14.7 million, was among many companies making the case that their C.E.O. was essential to future success. “Continuity in Kevin’s role is particularly vital to Starbucks at this time,” said Mary Dillon, a member of the compensation committee. The company made a $930 million profit in its latest fiscal year, down three-quarters from the previous year.
And General Electric sent a 487-word defense of the $73.2 million package awarded to Larry Culp, arguing that he was uniquely equipped to revive the ailing industrial conglomerate. “The board sees Larry Culp as essential to G.E.’s transformation,” a company spokesman said. The company turned a $5.2 billion profit last year, helped by restructuring measures that included reducing headcount by more than 20,000.
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When do you experts predict the precipitous drop/correction in the market? August? Sooner? I'm reading a lot of mixed things about the impact of 28% cap gains.
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When do you experts predict the precipitous drop/correction in the market? August? Sooner? I'm reading a lot of mixed things about the impact of 28% cap gains.
That which cannot go on forever won't... however, people who have been afraid of that precipitous drop have had a good argument along the lines of what I said before the ellipsis for a decade or more and outside of a coronavirus black swan have been 0-fer. Personally, I think the capital system has made it clear that it values stock prices above all else to the point that heaven and earth will be moved to keep the asset price gravy train running.
I don't know about trying to time a conversion to cash, tbh, but would be interested in hearing people's strategies to hedge against potential downside.
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When do you experts predict the precipitous drop/correction in the market? August? Sooner? I'm reading a lot of mixed things about the impact of 28% cap gains.
So people that make over $1MM a year (500k of them in the US) are going to do something else with their money that doesn't generate capital gains just to save a little on their profits being taxed? Hold cash? Invest overseas? I doubt it.
A bump in capital gains tax is just returning to what it was in the late 90s. I doubt this impacts the market.
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So people that make over $1MM a year (500k of them in the US) are going to do something else with their money that doesn't generate capital gains just to save a little on their profits being taxed? Hold cash? Invest overseas? I doubt it.
A bump in capital gains tax is just returning to what it was in the late 90s. I doubt this impacts the market.
From Yahoo Finance:
"And so for many investors looking to build wealth for the long term, stocks are an attractive option. And recent history suggests that higher tax burdens don't change this asset's relative merit.
"In 2013, although the wealthiest households sold 1% of their assets prior to the [last capital gains rate hike], they bought 4% of starting equity assets in the quarter after the change and therefore only temporarily reduced their equity exposures in order to realize gains at the lower rate," Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note to clients published last week. "Total household equity allocations demonstrated a similar pattern around the two preceding capital gains tax hikes."
So while some wealthy investors realized gains ahead of the last increase in the capital gains tax, more than all of those sales were replaced by new flows into the stock market. In other words, higher taxes created a short-term incentive for some investors to sell stocks, but this same higher rate was not a long-term deterrent for those investors when it came to buying stocks.
And so on a relative basis, stocks were still deemed the place to be even with the knowledge that future tax burdens would be higher upon sale of those assets. And Goldman expects a similar story to play out if the capital gains tax is increased this year."
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I honestly just wish that this tax bump was something for me to worry about. Sadly, we're not on pace to make $1MM this year. Maybe 2022.
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From Yahoo Finance:
"And so for many investors looking to build wealth for the long term, stocks are an attractive option. And recent history suggests that higher tax burdens don't change this asset's relative merit.
"In 2013, although the wealthiest households sold 1% of their assets prior to the [last capital gains rate hike], they bought 4% of starting equity assets in the quarter after the change and therefore only temporarily reduced their equity exposures in order to realize gains at the lower rate," Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note to clients published last week. "Total household equity allocations demonstrated a similar pattern around the two preceding capital gains tax hikes."
So while some wealthy investors realized gains ahead of the last increase in the capital gains tax, more than all of those sales were replaced by new flows into the stock market. In other words, higher taxes created a short-term incentive for some investors to sell stocks, but this same higher rate was not a long-term deterrent for those investors when it came to buying stocks.
And so on a relative basis, stocks were still deemed the place to be even with the knowledge that future tax burdens would be higher upon sale of those assets. And Goldman expects a similar story to play out if the capital gains tax is increased this year."
Yep. In the last week, I have seen 3 studies like this, and all of them showed the enormous investment activity that took place after tax hikes. GDP growth, too.
I honestly just wish that this tax bump was something for me to worry about. Sadly, we're not on pace to make $1MM this year. Maybe 2022.
Exactly. Real-world problems!
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One of the main direct market changes is a lack of incentive to hold positions or investments longer than a year. So how that affects money and position movement for family offices and funds and the like remains to be seen.
I don’t put too much stock in predicting what will happen based on market reactions in periods 5/10/20 years cause everything in terms of investing and markets changes so much year to year these days.
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What if you have made significant cap gains and don't want to sell because of the taxes? I'm also not sure those lucky enough to make 1m a year have a lot of growth options? I've always been a long-term investor, but I'm just curious if some of you closer to retirement are concerned with a major (sustained)correction and are looking to diversify?
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What if you have made significant cap gains and don't want to sell because of the taxes?
Then don't sell?
I'm also not sure those lucky enough to make 1m a year have a lot of growth options?
Since it would be only a marginal tax increase on income over $1M, Goldman's analysis makes sense to me. Can't see it would change much.
I've always been a long-term investor, but I'm just curious if some of you closer to retirement are concerned with a major (sustained)correction and are looking to diversify?
Speaking only for myself of course, I'm already diversified as much as I choose to be. My cash allocation doesn't swing too much based on where the markets are. I've learned I'm not great at market timing.
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Then don't sell?
Since it would be only a marginal tax increase on income over $1M, Goldman's analysis makes sense to me. Can't see it would change much.
Speaking only for myself of course, I'm already diversified as much as I choose to be. My cash allocation doesn't swing too much based on where the markets are. I've learned I'm not great at market timing.
I plan/hope to invest for another 25-30 yrs and don't need the money so I'm not sure taking the profit is the best decision.
Let's use this example: I bought a decent chunk of a stock that's up about 150% in 18 mos.. If I plan to have it for another 25+ yrs and don't need that money now is it really worth taking the profit? I know you can never go wrong with that return but as a long-term guy I figure after 25 yrs things will be just fine.
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I plan/hope to invest for another 25-30 yrs and don't need the money so I'm not sure taking the profit is the best decision.
Let's use this example: I bought a decent chunk of a stock that's up about 150% in 18 mos.. If I plan to have it for another 25+ yrs and don't need that money now is it really worth taking the profit? I know you can never go wrong with that return but as a long-term guy I figure after 25 yrs things will be just fine.
Muggs, nobody forces anybody to sell anything. (Well, at least not until RMDs; but even then an investor has choices.) If you don't want to take profits, don't want to sell, don't sell.
I am a very reluctant seller. Among the stocks I own that I have never sold a single share of: MSFT, AAPL, JNJ, PEP, PM, HD, LMT, HON, V, MA, NEE, and others. These are sizable positions.
If you don't sell, there are no taxable capital gains.
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Muggs, nobody forces anybody to sell anything. (Well, at least not until RMDs; but even then an investor has choices.) If you don't want to take profits, don't want to sell, don't sell.
I am a very reluctant seller. Among the stocks I own that I have never sold a single share of: MSFT, AAPL, JNJ, PEP, PM, HD, LMT, HON, V, MA, NEE, and others. These are sizable positions.
If you don't sell, there are no taxable capital gains.
That's exactly the point I was trying to make and it's one of the stocks you own. If I sell, and pay the cap-gains, I would look to invest the profit somewhere in lieu of letting it sit with crap interest. Therefore, I don't see much advantage dumping it and giving the taxes to the govt at this juncture.
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That's exactly the point I was trying to make and it's one of the stocks you own. If I sell, and pay the cap-gains, I would look to invest the profit somewhere in lieu of letting it sit with crap interest. Therefore, I don't see much advantage dumping it and giving the taxes to the govt at this juncture.
Remember, capital gains tax rates actually are historically low now. For a couple earning a little more than $100K, capital gains rates are 0%. (Actually 80,800, but it's really 105,600 minus the 25,600 standard deduction). And the cap gains tax rate is only 15% all the way up to $500K.
But yes, if you like the stock and believe it is one you'll want to own for decades, indeed, why would you dump it? We've all made investing mistakes; for me, the biggest ones by far have come on the selling end.
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Remember, capital gains tax rates actually are historically low now. For a couple earning a little more than $100K, capital gains rates are 0%. (Actually 80,800, but it's really 105,600 minus the 25,600 standard deduction). And the cap gains tax rate is only 15% all the way up to $500K.
But yes, if you like the stock and believe it is one you'll want to own for decades, indeed, why would you dump it? We've all made investing mistakes; for me, the biggest ones by far have come on the selling end.
They are relatively low for me and most people. But for those making 1m or more, and have to pay close to 40%, I'm just wondering if it will change their investment strategies and impact the average investor? After thinking about it I'm not sure it will have an enormous effect although I'm no expert.
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They are relatively low for me and most people. But for those making 1m or more, and have to pay close to 40%, I'm just wondering if it will change their investment strategies and impact the average investor? After thinking about it I'm not sure it will have an enormous effect although I'm no expert.
You think most people make more than $100k?
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They are relatively low for me and most people. But for those making 1m or more, and have to pay close to 40%, I'm just wondering if it will change their investment strategies and impact the average investor? After thinking about it I'm not sure it will have an enormous effect although I'm no expert.
History would suggest a raise back to the rates of only 4 years ago would have little to no long-term effect on the market. Given that we have no idea what, if any, legislation will emerge from all the talk going on right now, it's too early to know much of anything today.
A majority of stocks is held by the top 1%, and the vast majority is held by the top 5%. And yes, that includes stock held in mutual funds by "regular workers" in their 401k plans. Just under half of Americans own zero stock at all.
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You think most people make more than $100k?
No. I shouldn't have written most people.
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History would suggest a raise back to the rates of only 4 years ago would have little to no long-term effect on the market. Given that we have no idea what, if any, legislation will emerge from all the talk going on right now, it's too early to know much of anything today.
A majority of stocks is held by the top 1%, and the vast majority is held by the top 5%. And yes, that includes stock held in mutual funds by "regular workers" in their 401k plans. Just under half of Americans own zero stock at all.
yup
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I believe a pull back or correction is starting today-Friday of this week.
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I believe a pull back or correction is starting today-Friday of this week.
fed rates?
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I think State of the Union address/policy announcements may end up creating some serious profit takers. That said, 50% of me believes the government will never allow a real correction to happen ever again. Uncle Sam has helped create a lot of on paper millionaires over the past year with the housing and stock market gold rush. A lot of ill prepared baby boomers became a lot more prepared for retirement since the pandemic struck and they should be thanking Uncle Sam.
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I believe a pull back or correction is starting today-Friday of this week.
This is the bull signal I needed. Fade Goose.
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I think State of the Union address/policy announcements may end up creating some serious profit takers. That said, 50% of me believes the government will never allow a real correction to happen ever again. Uncle Sam has helped create a lot of on paper millionaires over the past year with the housing and stock market gold rush. A lot of ill prepared baby boomers became a lot more prepared for retirement since the pandemic struck and they should be thanking Uncle Sam.
I'm pretty sure its the false market we've been living in for a few years. cmbs, stock gambling, housing situation. In regards to housing firmly believe that new housing builds are being held back by developers basically creating the bubble that we are in. Material costs are high, land costs are high, but interest rates are low... So logically, it's sort of expensive to build a new house, but existing houses don't require materials or new land... but the prices are absurd currently. And when the fed raises interest rates, new housing is going to become even more expensive... rates + materials + land. And we already know housing supply is very sparse currently. This forces all but the most affluent folks to wait to purchase until prices lower because there are more houses available or a market crash scenario. What all of this means is that a lot of people who WANT to buy into the housing market cannot. They'll be forced to continue renting. Which... I am not sure how many of you around here still rent... is obscenely priced and ever increasing. People are unable to gain equity or build long term savings because of the housing situation. Which can lead to a dangerous cycle of spending savings (it's what our culture demands anyway).
Either this is the true rise of Neo-feudalism or we are headed for a major market downturn. Probably both, honestly. We need to have a solution for affordable housing one way or another.
I apologize if none of this is well thought out or easily refutable. I'm no expert, just guessing at what I see... plus I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
TLDR: sorry for the strange rant. I think we're in a bad place, and another market downturn is coming sooner rather than later.
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hards
I have thought long and hard about the current economic environment and half believe the government will keep blowing up the bubble and half believe there is going to be a serious economic setback in the USA. I have my theories on this and will keep them to myself, but I am happy that I gave Skats the bull signal he has been waiting for.
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I'm pretty sure its the false market we've been living in for a few years. cmbs, stock gambling, housing situation. In regards to housing firmly believe that new housing builds are being held back by developers basically creating the bubble that we are in. Material costs are high, land costs are high, but interest rates are low... So logically, it's sort of expensive to build a new house, but existing houses don't require materials or new land... but the prices are absurd currently. And when the fed raises interest rates, new housing is going to become even more expensive... rates + materials + land. And we already know housing supply is very sparse currently. This forces all but the most affluent folks to wait to purchase until prices lower because there are more houses available or a market crash scenario. What all of this means is that a lot of people who WANT to buy into the housing market cannot. They'll be forced to continue renting. Which... I am not sure how many of you around here still rent... is obscenely priced and ever increasing. People are unable to gain equity or build long term savings because of the housing situation. Which can lead to a dangerous cycle of spending savings (it's what our culture demands anyway).
Either this is the true rise of Neo-feudalism or we are headed for a major market downturn. Probably both, honestly. We need to have a solution for affordable housing one way or another.
I apologize if none of this is well thought out or easily refutable. I'm no expert, just guessing at what I see... plus I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
TLDR: sorry for the strange rant. I think we're in a bad place, and another market downturn is coming sooner rather than later.
How exactly are developers the ones holding back the supply? Believe me, if it were entirely up to developers the single family and multifamily markets would get overbuilt very quickly and prices would come down dramatically. Developers aren't the problem, they don't control materials prices, interest rates, zoning laws, real estate taxes, land prices and labor prices. Pick one, or really all of those factors and you've got the answer to high housing prices. All developers do is put all those inputs together and try to come up with products that they can sell or rent for enough profit to justify the risk.
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hards
I have thought long and hard about the current economic environment and half believe the government will keep blowing up the bubble and half believe there is going to be a serious economic setback in the USA. I have my theories on this and will keep them to myself, but I am happy that I gave Skats the bull signal he has been waiting for.
Thing is, they're going to run out of ways to blow up the bubble eventually... and I think we're much closer to that than we think. A lot of younger boomers and older gen Xers are going to have a rough retirement... If they get one at all.
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How exactly are developers the ones holding back the supply? Believe me, if it were entirely up to developers the single family and multifamily markets would get overbuilt very quickly and prices would come down dramatically. Developers aren't the problem, they don't control materials prices, interest rates, zoning laws, real estate taxes, land prices and labor prices. Pick one, or really all of those factors and you've got the answer to high housing prices. All developers do is put all those inputs together and try to come up with products that they can sell or rent for enough profit to justify the risk.
Sorry, I wasn't clear (as I expected) with my rant. Of course they're in the business of building and selling new property. The things you mentioned are what I mean when I said 'held back'. Not that they're doing it on purpose, but those factors are making it difficult to create homes for people at reasonable prices. Also, I think there are a lot of buyers who have unrealistic expectations of what 'their house' should be and when they're met with the price of the things they want they cannot afford it. Developers are not to blame, but they are stuck in the situation alongside potential homeowners as well.
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Sounds like it's time to sell everything, including the house!
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Sorry, I wasn't clear (as I expected) with my rant. Of course they're in the business of building and selling new property. The things you mentioned are what I mean when I said 'held back'. Not that they're doing it on purpose, but those factors are making it difficult to create homes for people at reasonable prices. Also, I think there are a lot of buyers who have unrealistic expectations of what 'their house' should be and when they're met with the price of the things they want they cannot afford it. Developers are not to blame, but they are stuck in the situation alongside potential homeowners as well.
No worries, you can probably guess what line of work I'm in....
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No worries, you can probably guess what line of work I'm in....
Lol, yeah it was pretty clear! What is your opinion on the housing situation? I have a friend who is currently looking (WI), and is overbidding by 20% and including all sorts of riders to try to get into a home. I have another friend who recently sold in PA for 65k over asking. I have a pair of friends who bought last year and had to way overbid 15% for what was essentially a starter home in the area.
I think the market is absolutely nuts right now. As more of an expert, what to you think?
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Lol, yeah it was pretty clear! What is your opinion on the housing situation? I have a friend who is currently looking (WI), and is overbidding by 20% and including all sorts of riders to try to get into a home. I have another friend who recently sold in PA for 65k over asking. I have a pair of friends who bought last year and had to way overbid 15% for what was essentially a starter home in the area.
I think the market is absolutely nuts right now. As more of an expert, what to you think?
I'm not a single family guy, I'm an apartment developer. But single family markets vary greatly by location. Some places homes are dirt cheap compared to what they used to be. Big Chicago suburban homes got destroyed in value until Covid flipped the script and city folk ran back outward. But before last year you could get a really big, really nice SF home for 60-70% of what they traded for 5-10 years earlier.
Generally the first answer to any question about macro market trends like this is always demographics, obviously. If you are in a location where the population of home buying aged people is growing faster than others, prices ain't going down anytime soon.
Then go to interest rates. I've been saying that interest rates are going up for about 10 years now, and they keep going down. But the way we are printing money inflation has to be right around the corner-which will push interest rates up. If we keep issuing new Treasuries at the current pace the demand will have to slow at some point, and that will push rates up too.
The materials prices are in a major bubble right now, and they will definitely go down. New lumber mills are under construction all over the south. That will relieve some pressure, and allow more development. But that takes time. So I'd guess, short of some unexpected event that shocks everything and puts us in another recession, we are in for higher housing prices for the short term future.
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82
It might time to sell everything or a time to buy everything. As you know, the housing market is insane and seeing that Steve Stricker sold his Naples pad on whim because "the market was too crazy not to sell" says a lot to me. Steve Stricker needs to make a quick million on a home sale about as much as we need another Perez thread on scoop. I had a very good friend make 40% on his place in Naples in a year and he has received a 30% upside offer on his new place that won't be completed until December. His first sale the couple from MI that bought his place without seeing it and the new offer is a couple from NY.
Cheap money is a great thing while it lasts and only time will tell how long it will last. Cheap money and the wealth factor is great for the economy and I hope it lasts a long, long time. My gut tells me that all great things eventually come to an end, but impossible to pick the top for most people(me). I am a reckless investor by nature and I am starting to keep a closer eye on things on a daily basis. Good news, the government has shown they no longer have the stomach to see big drops in asset values and have created safety nets.
My Dad told many a thousand times to never fall in love with an asset and that is advice I have always tried to follow. Sadly, the one asset I do love is my house and I likely will remain in our house until I am 90 years old. To steal Keefe's line, if I had a hair on my ass, I would sell my joint and rent for a couple of years.
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thbigjake
We are helping a couple of large builders source a ton of product from SE Asia. If you ever need a new source for building materials let me know. We are working on virtually anything that is needed in apartment or commercial new construction.
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Thanks Goose, I'll keep that in mind. Can you get your materials off the ships yet? It's nuts at the ports. I've got a bunch of refrigerators stuck in a port somewhere, and have to switch last minute in order to make a CO date.
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jake
Our bigger clients are seeing minor improvements but are paying a ton of surcharges to make things happen. Our small to midsize clients are still struggling. Logistics is not our thing but we are spending a lot of time helping move things along. Our business model is cradle to grave on the supplier front. Normally our job ends once the goods are picked up at factory.
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82
It might time to sell everything or a time to buy everything. As you know, the housing market is insane and seeing that Steve Stricker sold his Naples pad on whim because "the market was too crazy not to sell" says a lot to me. Steve Stricker needs to make a quick million on a home sale about as much as we need another Perez thread on scoop. I had a very good friend make 40% on his place in Naples in a year and he has received a 30% upside offer on his new place that won't be completed until December. His first sale the couple from MI that bought his place without seeing it and the new offer is a couple from NY.
Cheap money is a great thing while it lasts and only time will tell how long it will last. Cheap money and the wealth factor is great for the economy and I hope it lasts a long, long time. My gut tells me that all great things eventually come to an end, but impossible to pick the top for most people(me). I am a reckless investor by nature and I am starting to keep a closer eye on things on a daily basis. Good news, the government has shown they no longer have the stomach to see big drops in asset values and have created safety nets.
My Dad told many a thousand times to never fall in love with an asset and that is advice I have always tried to follow. Sadly, the one asset I do love is my house and I likely will remain in our house until I am 90 years old. To steal Keefe's line, if I had a hair on my ass, I would sell my joint and rent for a couple of years.
Wisely stated ... especially your first sentence. The only thing we know for sure about which way the market is headed is that we don’t know!
I don’t live in Naples and I won’t make a mil on my house, but I have said to Mrs. 82 a couple times lately that maybe it’s time to think about selling. But she doesn’t want to ... and it’s hard to blame her.
As for stocks, even if there’s a crash, they’ll eventually go up again. “Eventually” could mean very quickly as in last spring; or fairly quickly as in a couple years after the Great Recession; or several years as in the Great Depression.
Glad we have some cash these days, too. Lousy returns, but lots of peace of mind.
Be well.
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Wisely stated ... especially your first sentence. The only thing we know for sure about which way the market is headed is that we don’t know!
I don’t live in Naples and I won’t make a mil on my house, but I have said to Mrs. 82 a couple times lately that maybe it’s time to think about selling. But she doesn’t want to ... and it’s hard to blame her.
As for stocks, even if there’s a crash, they’ll eventually go up again. “Eventually” could mean very quickly as in last spring; or fairly quickly as in a couple years after the Great Recession; or several years as in the Great Depression.
Glad we have some cash these days, too. Lousy returns, but lots of peace of mind.
Be well.
That's the thing, say you do sell... then what? Do you downsize? Do you move away from where you live to somewhere less affluent? Does the cash from your sale do anything for you besides make you feel like you got out on top? To me, to make money from home buying and selling is timing the market... which is pretty difficult. Otherwise, prices remain pretty relative. Sure, you made a bunch on your current home, but you're selling and then have to buy SOMETHING... or rent. And ew to that.
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That's the thing, say you do sell... then what? Do you downsize? Do you move away from where you live to somewhere less affluent? Does the cash from your sale do anything for you besides make you feel like you got out on top? To me, to make money from home buying and selling is timing the market... which is pretty difficult. Otherwise, prices remain pretty relative. Sure, you made a bunch on your current home, but you're selling and then have to buy SOMETHING... or rent. And ew to that.
Can't argue with most of what you say.
I will say that when we ended up renting in Chicago for 40 months before moving to NC, we actually enjoyed it. No yard work. No upkeep of the structure. Sink clogged? It was fixed in a matter of hours by the in-house maintenance. Hell, they changed our dining-room chandelier bulb when one burned out. Our timing on that one happened to work out -- sold our condo in April 2007 right before the housing market went into the crapper, and we were able to buy in Charlotte when the market was still down -- but that was luck and little more.
It is possible that we will sell and then rent for at least awhile, but only likely if we move to be closer to one of our kids/grandkids.
Agree that trying to time everything perfectly, or even close to perfectly, is a fool's errand.
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I’m taking a spin at the roulette wheel on NOK. Just placed an order for a few hundred shares.
Well after a strong Q1 report, it's doing well after hours.
I bought really, really high during the whole GME fiasco just to "feel" like I was participating in all that...like an idiot. Timing was never my strong suit. Fortunately, I didn't buy much. Hopefully it keeps heading in the right direction and maybe I can get back to even. That's a long way off, though.
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Well after a strong Q1 report, it's doing well after hours.
I bought really, really high during the whole GME fiasco just to "feel" like I was participating in all that...like an idiot. Timing was never my strong suit. Fortunately, I didn't buy much. Hopefully it keeps heading in the right direction and maybe I can get back to even. That's a long way off, though.
Feels like I’m looking in a mirror. I put a little toward it to be a part of the rush.
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At Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting, Charlie Munger let loose on crypto:
"Of course I hate the Bitcoin success and I don’t welcome a currency that’s so useful to kidnappers and extortionists. I think the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization.”
Meanwhile, here's good news for our own Smuggles (Heisey) -- he has something big in common with the world's most famous investor.
Admitting he regretted selling Apple shares, Warren Buffett said: “That was probably a mistake."
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Munger is such a crotchety old condescending a**hole. He spends 90% of his public remarks and appearances crapting on every new trend in the market and on any market participant under 60. It’s possible to be one of the great investors of the last 100 years, and still be an out of touch dinosaur who is completely unwilling or unable to adapt or change.
I am no big fan of Buffett for myriad reasons, but he at least has the self awareness and understanding to admit that if he had to start from scratch in this era he would struggle. Munger would probably just personally insult you if you dared pose a similar question
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Munger is such a crotchety old condescending a**hole. He spends 90% of his public remarks and appearances crapting on every new trend in the market and on any market participant under 60. It’s possible to be one of the great investors of the last 100 years, and still be an out of touch dinosaur who is completely unwilling or unable to adapt or change.
I am no big fan of Buffett for myriad reasons, but he at least has the self awareness and understanding to admit that if he had to start from scratch in this era he would struggle. Munger would probably just personally insult you if you dared pose a similar question
Yeah, I knew posting that would get some folks' hackles up.
And I agree with you. Munger cracks me up because he's such an old man yelling at kids to get off his cul-de-sac!
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And I agree with you. Munger cracks me up because he's such an old man yelling at kids to get off his cul-de-sac!
Yes. But I'm not sure I completely disagree with his view of crypto.
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Yes. But I'm not sure I completely disagree with his view of crypto.
You should. It's a really stupid take. You know what currency the world uses for most of its illegal operations? USD.
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You should. It's a really stupid take. You know what currency the world uses for most of its illegal operations? USD.
Yeah that part was a bad take. At least crypto is traceable.
But his point that bitcoin is "too volatile" to be considered a global medium of exchange? Agreed.
I like Munger,
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You should. It's a really stupid take. You know what currency the world uses for most of its illegal operations? USD.
Yes, because it is currently much easier to use dollars for say, buying of illegal drugs, than to make a bitcoin transaction. Yet what medium of exchange do hackers and ransomware attackers usually ask for?
Beyond illegal transactions, though, my view is that crypto has limited uses, and a general medium of exchange is not one of them. I have a good friend and neighbor whose brother runs a private investment fund. He is all in on crypto and thinks bitcoin will go to $400,000. However, he doesn't believe it will ever be a broad medium of exchange and that its value will be derived from its scarcity and use as a store of value. That's just one persons view of course.
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Yeah that part was a bad take. At least crypto is traceable.
But his point that bitcoin is "too volatile" to be considered a global medium of exchange? Agreed.
I like Munger,
Why? He was a bad money manager on his own. And then once he partnered up with Buffett, the division he overlooked basically parked huge sums of cash in blue chips. He also made dumbass disproven comments about gold
My issue with him and people of his ilk is they dont produce any new ideas or theories, but just cynically shoot down everything new or transformative. He doesnt actively manage money and hasn't for a long time. I dont care about his negative and out of touch viewpoint the same way that I would roll my eyes at someone like Red Auerbach or Chuck Daly calling the modern trend or style of play in the NBA as toxic and unlikely to work.
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Doge at $0.52. That's about 1200% for me. About 17,000% for my daughter. :o
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Doge at $0.52. That's about 1200% for me. About 17,000% for my daughter. :o
Let’s go!!!!!!!! Love all the experts and paper hands who have been turning their nose up at Doge. Just took over 3rd or 4th place of all cryptos!
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Keep it going. $0.57 at the moment
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Another beat and raise from CVS. On track to have debt paid down to target by the end of the year in order to restart dividend increases.
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Keep it going. $0.57 at the moment
My daughter just texted me to tell me it's over $0.60. She got in at $0.003.
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Musk says it's going to the moon!!!!
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10 days ago I started on the crypto path, opening an account at Binance.us. My verification took a week, which was nuts.
This morning, I figured I'd play with $100 in DOGE. Clicked "Purchase" and it replied "Transaction failed, try again."
So I did. And each of the next four times, it said the same thing. Then I got emails saying each of those 5 were successful, so now I own $500 in DOGE.
Which is fine .. just .. their system is screwy and worrisome. ?-(
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I am very happy that I provided a bull signal for Skats last week, but I am moving more into cash for the third straight trading day. I am a big fan of Leon Cooperman and his words of "this is not going to end well" hit home. 1987 and 2008 are both pretty fresh in my mind and I am going on defense.
I am a firm believer that we are going to have a major, major supply issue quickly. We have clients spending crazy money to air freight goods because container shortage is getting worse. The supply issue is going to accelerate the rise in inflation, IMO and I am going to be watching from the sidelines.
FYI---sticking with my ripple and Doge, which will keep my attention.
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Yellen setting the stage for rate increases to prevent the economy from “overheating”
So in one hand the administration wants congress to pass $4 trillion in additional spending to help a struggling economy recover from the pandemic and in the other we’re raising rates cause economy is on the brink of “overheating”. 🤪🤷♂️
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https://www.vice.com/en/article/m7eeq8/this-tiktokers-scam-cryptocurrency-took-off-and-he-cant-believe-it
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Yellen setting the stage for rate increases to prevent the economy from “overheating”
So in one hand the administration wants congress to pass $4 trillion in additional spending to help a struggling economy recover from the pandemic and in the other we’re raising rates cause economy is on the brink of “overheating”. 🤪🤷♂️
Did you purposely leave out the part where she said the spending plans are necessary investments to push our economy forward and moderate interest rate increases will be coupled along with that? Or did you not know about her full answer?
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Did you purposely leave out the part where she said the spending plans are necessary investments to push our economy forward and moderate interest rate increases will be coupled along with that? Or did you not know about her full answer?
I did not see her full answer but how does that change anything. Either the economy is roaring thus rates need to be bumped up a bit or it’s spinning it’s tires in the fog of the pandemic and we need the gov’t to step in and give it a kickstart (which I wouldn’t think would come along with a rate increase).
If the spending bills are the main thing that will trigger the rate increase, let’s maybe not do it?!?! Or am i over simplifying it?
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I did not see her full answer but how does that change anything. Either the economy is roaring thus rates need to be bumped up a bit or it’s spinning it’s tires in the fog of the pandemic and we need the gov’t to step in and give it a kickstart (which I wouldn’t think would come along with a rate increase).
If the spending bills are the main thing that will trigger the rate increase, let’s maybe not do it?!?! Or am i over simplifying it?
Why are your benchmarks so extreme? Is there no room between "roaring" and "spinning its tires"?
Perhaps we have an economy that survived the pandemic recession fairly well comparative to others due to multiple capital infusions but still has fundamental concerns regarding its antiquated structure. Those concerns could be met midway with the further spending providing for a realignment of the labor market as we transition into a different environment ahead.
Ensuring the economy doesn't backslide into a recession by investing while at the same time seeing a quarter point here and a quarter point there to stave off inflation seems to be a note on both sides of the argument working in tandem.
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Why are your benchmarks so extreme? Is there no room between "roaring" and "spinning its tires"?
Perhaps we have an economy that survived the pandemic recession fairly well comparative to others due to multiple capital infusions but still has fundamental concerns regarding its antiquated structure. Those concerns could be met midway with the further spending providing for a realignment of the labor market as we transition into a different environment ahead.
Ensuring the economy doesn't backslide into a recession by investing while at the same time seeing a quarter point here and a quarter point there to stave off inflation seems to be a note on both sides of the argument working in tandem.
If the economy is somewhere in the middle as you suggest (btw it was Yelen not me who characterized it as on the brink of overheating) then let’s have a somewhere in the middle federal response to it with say maybe a $1 trillion infrastructure package and call it a day?
Something along those lines I think would pass with unbelievable bipartisan support.
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I wasn't the biggest fan of Bernanke, but my god I miss him. Between Yellen, then Powell, and now Yellen is back in the mix as Sec of Treasury, we're working on 8 years of Fed Reserve Chair influence who, regardless of what their true beliefs or stances are, cannot communicate effectively and thus always appear wishy washy or unsure. I hated Yellen's tenure, but somehow Powell was worse. Dude was always a bumbling dope during any Q&A. Yellen is back with her doublespeak with a vengeance.
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If the economy is somewhere in the middle as you suggest (btw it was Yelen not me who characterized it as on the brink of overheating) then let’s have a somewhere in the middle federal response to it with say maybe a $1 trillion infrastructure package and call it a day?
Something along those lines I think would pass with unbelievable bipartisan support.
US infrastructure needs at least triple the amount Biden wants to bring our infrastructure anywhere near the level needed.
The infrastructure bill, IMO, shouldn't be tied to economic recovery at all.
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Wags
Powell has not gone anywhere.
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Wags
Powell has not gone anywhere.
You're correct, I meant more that she was back in a position of exerting influence. So now we have both instead of just one. I corrected it. Either way, it sucks
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I wasn't the biggest fan of Bernanke, but my god I miss him. Between Yellen, then Powell, and now Yellen is back in the mix as Sec of Treasury, we're working on 8 years of Fed Reserve Chair influence who, regardless of what their true beliefs or stances are, cannot communicate effectively and thus always appear wishy washy or unsure. I hated Yellen's tenure, but somehow Powell was worse. Dude was always a bumbling dope during any Q&A. Yellen is back with her doublespeak with a vengeance.
LOL, do you remember Greenspan?
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I wasn't the biggest fan of Bernanke, but my god I miss him. Between Yellen, then Powell, and now Yellen is back in the mix as Sec of Treasury, we're working on 8 years of Fed Reserve Chair influence who, regardless of what their true beliefs or stances are, cannot communicate effectively and thus always appear wishy washy or unsure. I hated Yellen's tenure, but somehow Powell was worse. Dude was always a bumbling dope during any Q&A. Yellen is back with her doublespeak with a vengeance.
Greenspan and Bernanke did the same thing. I read Bernanke's book (really good, btw), and he spent a lot of time talking about how the Fed communicates and the tightropes they have to walk. That is just what Fed Chairs do. They have to try to communicate their strategy on interest rates and QE without promising anything, leaving room for flexibility, while trying to give the markets as much certainty as possible, because the markets hate uncertainty. All while attempting to remain independent from political pressures. It is really an impossible job.
Powell has been great, IMO, under both Trump and Biden.
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LOL, do you remember Greenspan?
This is entirely unsurprising out of you.
Powell has been great, IMO, under both Trump and Biden.
Its an incredibly difficult job, nobody is contesting that, but I don't know how he can be deemed "great" unless you're just referring to short term market gains and trying to pump employment. Everyone I know in the financial industry has talked about him being one of the worst communicators for a highly visible financial talking head in their lifetimes and I dont think he can be judged favorably until inflation repercussions of the last 2 years are seen, cause the Fed money printer is churning like nobody has ever seen. Powell is against MMT, but sees no issues with constantly pumping money into the system cause he claims they will be able to "control" inflation
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This is entirely unsurprising out of you.
Its an incredibly difficult job, nobody is contesting that, but I don't know how he can be deemed "great" unless you're just referring to short term market gains and trying to pump employment. Everyone I know in the financial industry has talked about him being one of the worst communicators for a highly visible financial talking head in their lifetimes and I dont think he can be judged favorably until inflation repercussions of the last 2 years are seen, cause the Fed money printer is churning like nobody has ever seen. Powell is against MMT, but sees no issues with constantly pumping money into the system cause he claims they will be able to "control" inflation
The Fed was the first and most important actor to stabilize the economy last March. Yes, fiscal relief via CARES Act made a big difference but the Fed stepped in to stop the bleeding. They backstopped corporate debt and became a lender of last resort. We could have been in a really dark place in late March 2020 without them. While the USA certainly didn't nail the public health response, the monetary and fiscal response to COVID is something people will be reading about in economics textbooks decades from now as a model response.
Inflation is coming, I don't disagree. But it will be 3-4% inflation and will last for a year or two. And the Fed has basically telegraphed this the entire time, rewriting the rules for its 2% target. They have actually been extraordinarily transparent, if you know how to read between the lines.
I'm not an MMT advocate, just an old school Keynesian, but our economy can easily support this level of money printing in the short term and it was worth it to avoid a severe, long recession.
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Coleman
I agree with 99% of your post. My only issue with the Fed this time around is I think they have fallen asleep at the wheel. I think they should have begun scaling back on asset purchases a couple months ago and sounded the alarm that higher rates were coming later in the year. My confidence level of the Fed/government to be nimble is quite low.
My other concern is inflation being higher than 3-4% and lasting longer. They have tried to get inflation to 2% and have failed for a long, long time. I believe a rapid spike higher than 4% is coming and am afraid it is going to last longer than you do.
I cannot speak for other folks on here in the business world, but in my line of work folks are spending money like crazy. Not that anyone is happy with higher costs, but not stopping any of our clients from doing their daily business. I have seen booms and busts over my career and this time really feels different to me and that has my concern up.
Final thought, I agree they knocked out of the park, but I am bit more cynical on the topic. This is third "event" they have had to navigate over the past twenty years and they learned their lessons. I hate the Fed getting involved, but they did save the day last spring. Now it is time to get the hell out of the way and let us get back to business as usual.
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Coleman
I agree with 99% of your post. My only issue with the Fed this time around is I think they have fallen asleep at the wheel. I think they should have begun scaling back on asset purchases a couple months ago and sounded the alarm that higher rates were coming later in the year. My confidence level of the Fed/government to be nimble is quite low.
My other concern is inflation being higher than 3-4% and lasting longer. They have tried to get inflation to 2% and have failed for a long, long time. I believe a rapid spike higher than 4% is coming and am afraid it is going to last longer than you do.
I cannot speak for other folks on here in the business world, but in my line of work folks are spending money like crazy. Not that anyone is happy with higher costs, but not stopping any of our clients from doing their daily business. I have seen booms and busts over my career and this time really feels different to me and that has my concern up.
Final thought, I agree they knocked out of the park, but I am bit more cynical on the topic. This is third "event" they have had to navigate over the past twenty years and they learned their lessons. I hate the Fed getting involved, but they did save the day last spring. Now it is time to get the hell out of the way and let us get back to business as usual.
Goose, I also agree with 99% of your post. Fed should be scaling back asset purchases now.
Inflation is like fire. It is easy to contain...until it isn't. I don't think inflation higher than 4% is coming, but it is a risk. And as long as it is a risk it is worth paying attention to and hedging against.
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Goose/Coleman,
I won’t quote cause those are big paragraphs, but I don’t disagree with you much. I hate how Powell does Q&A, but I don’t think he’s been a disaster or a bad Fed Chief, though I do have significant inflation concerns like Goose, and as you said, it’s not a problem until it is, and then it’s a wildfire. I guess my issues and concerns go back to the communication. You say it’s there if you read between the lines, but if that was the case, I feel it would be communicated more effectively, verbally or otherwise. That’s further been stoked by the last few months of not scaling back and hurriedly correcting or walking back any indication of raising rates or tapering or stemming the flow of easy money. It happened again today
I feel like the Fed has gotten a bit too concerning or responsive to short term stock market movements at the expense of a cohesive, well communicated long term strategy
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Coleman
I agree that inflation should be easy to contain and I have been waited for the 2% for a long time. I always try and start my reasoning close to home and then move my thinking out into the real world. I have been helping US companies source product from SE Asia for over two decades and have seen my clients battle over pricing for most of that time. Over the past handful of months I have seen things slipping away and the Chinese gaining more and more power. Clients that once fought for 2-3% are accepting double digit increases, crazy freight costs and high marketing spends.
My fear is that things get out of control in the short term and that the Genie stays out of the bottle in regards to the Chinese power. Not that the Chinese needed confirmation, but 2020 proved to them, yet again, how reliant the USA is to their manufacturing capacity. I would have bet a lot of money that China's economy would tank a year ago and the Fed gave them a life vest as much as they saved our economy. They have renewed confidence that I have never seen and President Xi is leading the way.
To add to my concern, we are seeing crazy price increases across our entire client mix. We have done a very job of being generalists in regards to our client mix and we do not work with any two two companies buying/selling the same product mix. Over the years we seen sectors have spikes but never across the entire client mix. Our clients range from consumer goods, tier one auto parts, builders and range from startups to public traded/PE owned companies and everyone is feeling the pinch.
Again, there are times in history that things line up, good or bad, and can cause opportunities or busts and I think we may be on a verge of that in the near future. I have always kept a close eye on our need for China and how it will play out for our economic situation in the USA. At the moment, I do not like the balance of power.
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Wags
The Fed has been way to concerned about the stock market, IMO and has added to the problem. Cheap money, stimulus money, crazy raw material costs, logistics bottlenecks and the wealth effect factor due to inflated stock prices is not a great combination, IMO.
Folks can talk about a great economic recovery all they want but at my house we are still probably down 60-70% on our non essential spending and we are normally very good for the economy. IMO there has been a lot of magic dust thrown around and hopefully more people took advantage of it than normally do.
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If the economy is somewhere in the middle as you suggest (btw it was Yelen not me who characterized it as on the brink of overheating) then let’s have a somewhere in the middle federal response to it with say maybe a $1 trillion infrastructure package and call it a day?
Something along those lines I think would pass with unbelievable bipartisan support.
The forces at play are a deficit hawk dinosaur prone to hyperbole (Yellen), an eager CoS who wants to go DDE style big on infrastructure (Klain), proposed legislation that routinely polls in the mid to high 60s, a Congressional majority that's soon to be a minority, and a Congressional minority that has zero interest in governing. Ever.
The investment package, or packages, may very well end up being more of a middle of the road proposition depending on how the sausage is made. Regardless, as jesmu84 wrote, the investment no matter the scale will pale in comparison to what is needed and will be snickered at in a decade's time when we look back on the Covid pandemic's economic impact.
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This is entirely unsurprising out of you.
WTF does that mean?
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Thank you Goose, Wags, Coleman!!! Not living in that “world” it was an interesting peek behind the curtain.
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WTF does that mean?
A snarky, borderline condescending comment that adds little while also naturally shading AG who identifies as Republican and was always deemed to be chummy with GOP administrations. Checked a lot of boxes
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A snarky, borderline condescending comment that adds little while also naturally shading AG who identifies as Republican and was always deemed to be chummy with GOP administrations. Checked a lot of boxes
Oh, son...
First of all, Greenspan served under both Republican and Democratic administrations. My comment had zero to do with his politics. It was in comparison to you complaining about Yellen's "double speak". Greenspan may not have invented Fed Talk, but he was unquestionably and easily the GOAT.
Greenspan was quite open with the fact that he intentionally made his answers as dense and incomprehensible as possible. It was an open joke, and one that he was in on:
"What I've learned at the Federal Reserve is a new language which is called "Fed-speak". You soon learn to mumble with great incoherence."
— Alan Greenspan
Yellen is but a pale imitation of the Grand Master.
A fact you were either didn't know, or misunderstood.
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Relevant, and potentially scary, video:
https://youtu.be/1HmGLV46L60
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Greenspan took great pleasure in confusing his audience. He took it new levels every team he spoke.
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Good stuff everyone. I could talk about this all day.
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Good stuff everyone. I could talk about this all day.
Yessir. Very interesting dialogue about an important topic.
And it beats the heck out of 24/7 crypto talk. I was about to start an "everything other than crypto" investing thread.
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Oh, son...
First of all, Greenspan served under both Republican and Democratic administrations. My comment had zero to do with his politics. It was in comparison to you complaining about Yellen's "double speak". Greenspan may not have invented Fed Talk, but he was unquestionably and easily the GOAT.
Greenspan was quite open with the fact that he intentionally made his answers as dense and incomprehensible as possible. It was an open joke, and one that he was in on:
"What I've learned at the Federal Reserve is a new language which is called "Fed-speak". You soon learn to mumble with great incoherence."
— Alan Greenspan
Yellen is but a pale imitation of the Grand Master.
A fact you were either didn't know, or misunderstood.
Fair play. And I think the difference between Greenspan and Yellen is self awareness. There is what Greenspan did, and what Yellen and Powell have done. Greenspan had myriad faults and difficulties in the role, but he grasped the public facing game far better than the more recent pair. JP and JY trend present apparent bewilderment in their public comments and speeches more than purposeful murkiness. I’m still baffled that an lawyer/I Banker became the head of the banking engine of the US
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Well after a strong Q1 report, it's doing well after hours.
I bought really, really high during the whole GME fiasco just to "feel" like I was participating in all that...like an idiot. Timing was never my strong suit. Fortunately, I didn't buy much. Hopefully it keeps heading in the right direction and maybe I can get back to even. That's a long way off, though.
I did not do well on the roulette wheel there. Ended up losing a few hundred bucks.
My wife had bought a good amount of DOGE at $.03 early this year with some fun money. Cool to see it at $0.64 now.
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With all the talk about inflation, supply chain challenges, heightened wages, workforce challenges, stimulus packages, etc, is anyone willing to bet against the craps shooter and invest in SQQQ (basically shorting the Nasdaq)
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Warriors
Likely will short SPY, but possible same play on QQQ. Only going to nibble on SPY going into weekends and see what happens at start of biz the following week.
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(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/technology/2021/01/28/Screenshot-2021-01-28-at-13-20-35_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqEGKV9LrAqQtLUTT1Z0gJNRFI0o2dlzyIcL3Nvd0Rwgc.png)
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(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/technology/2021/01/28/Screenshot-2021-01-28-at-13-20-35_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqEGKV9LrAqQtLUTT1Z0gJNRFI0o2dlzyIcL3Nvd0Rwgc.png)
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
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To the moon!!
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sell sell sell sell [at $0.16]
I think today was probably the right day to get out [at $0.36].
As of right now, it's at $0.67.
I'm just giving you a hard time, Hards...I know that this is funny money and there is no rational explanation for what is going on with it. I'm pretty sure I'm going to sell within a couple days. We don't honestly have very much -- I started with about $25 -- certainly not enough to ever "make a difference" in our lives. So, I think we're going to sell it soon to give each of our kids some spending money on our upcoming vacation.
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As of right now, it's at $0.67.
I'm just giving you a hard time, Hards...I know that this is funny money and there is no rational explanation for what is going on with it. I'm pretty sure I'm going to sell within a couple days. We don't honestly have very much -- I started with about $25 -- certainly not enough to ever "make a difference" in our lives. So, I think we're going to sell it soon to give each of our kids some spending money on our upcoming vacation.
He's no Heisey, but close.
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Why? He was a bad money manager on his own. And then once he partnered up with Buffett, the division he overlooked basically parked huge sums of cash in blue chips. He also made dumbass disproven comments about gold
My issue with him and people of his ilk is they dont produce any new ideas or theories, but just cynically shoot down everything new or transformative. He doesnt actively manage money and hasn't for a long time. I dont care about his negative and out of touch viewpoint the same way that I would roll my eyes at someone like Red Auerbach or Chuck Daly calling the modern trend or style of play in the NBA as toxic and unlikely to work.
I agree that Munger has mostly bad takes. I just think he's very funny, like the dad from That 70's Show.
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As of right now, it's at $0.67.
I'm just giving you a hard time, Hards...I know that this is funny money and there is no rational explanation for what is going on with it. I'm pretty sure I'm going to sell within a couple days. We don't honestly have very much -- I started with about $25 -- certainly not enough to ever "make a difference" in our lives. So, I think we're going to sell it soon to give each of our kids some spending money on our upcoming vacation.
Unless you really need the money, why not let it ride?
All my doge I acquired free from a crypto faucet. That said, I have like 40 dogecoins, so its not worth much at all. But might as well just let it ride.
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Unless you really need the money, why not let it ride?
All my doge I acquired free from a crypto faucet. That said, I have like 40 dogecoins, so its not worth much at all. But might as well just let it ride.
Here's my thinking (for what it's worth) - it's not enough that it will ever "make a difference" in our lives. If I had bought $1000 or $5000, I might feel differently. Given the fact that it won't make a difference in our lives, I want to remember the fun we had with it. If I give each of our kids $150 to spend in on vacation...we'll have a fond memory tied to our experience with this silly meme. We don't "need" the $600. But it's also not within our normal practice to just give our kids $600 to spend just for the hell of it. So, we'll do this and create some memories. My belief is that if we don't do that, we'll just be left with, "remember that one time we had that stupid little investment that blew up and then went back to nothing."
Edited to add: and if it goes up to $5...well...I'll be bummed out about that. Then again it "still" would only be a couple thousand dollars. Now if it goes up to $55,000 like bitcoin...
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buy the dips
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Here's my thinking (for what it's worth) - it's not enough that it will ever "make a difference" in our lives. If I had bought $1000 or $5000, I might feel differently. Given the fact that it won't make a difference in our lives, I want to remember the fun we had with it. If I give each of our kids $150 to spend in on vacation...we'll have a fond memory tied to our experience with this silly meme. We don't "need" the $600. But it's also not within our normal practice to just give our kids $600 to spend just for the hell of it. So, we'll do this and create some memories. My belief is that if we don't do that, we'll just be left with, "remember that one time we had that stupid little investment that blew up and then went back to nothing."
Edited to add: and if it goes up to $5...well...I'll be bummed out about that. Then again it "still" would only be a couple thousand dollars. Now if it goes up to $55,000 like bitcoin...
That makes sense.
I think doge could hit $1. Maybe $2.
$55k not so much. Supply is unlimited, unlike bitcoin
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That makes sense.
I think doge could hit $1. Maybe $2.
$55k not so much. Supply is unlimited, unlike bitcoin
Thats been one of the glaring inconsistencies to all of this. So many people don't comprehend even the most basic differences between Doge and BTC. The buy volume to keep the price rising as supply continues to rise will sink it sooner rather than later. If someone is talking price targets in the triple digits, much less higher, they have no clue what they are talking about
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Yes, because it is currently much easier to use dollars for say, buying of illegal drugs, than to make a bitcoin transaction. Yet what medium of exchange do hackers and ransomware attackers usually ask for?
Beyond illegal transactions, though, my view is that crypto has limited uses, and a general medium of exchange is not one of them. I have a good friend and neighbor whose brother runs a private investment fund. He is all in on crypto and thinks bitcoin will go to $400,000. However, he doesn't believe it will ever be a broad medium of exchange and that its value will be derived from its scarcity and use as a store of value. That's just one persons view of course.
Bolded: It's about the same. BTC gets used because the account can't be frozen by a nation. You still know the address of the people asking for the BTC and it can be traced.
Italicized: Your good friend's brother is correct. I don't think anyone is claiming that BTC would be used as a traditional currency. It is more comparable to gold, but better in every way.
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That makes sense.
I think doge could hit $1. Maybe $2.
$55k not so much. Supply is unlimited, unlike bitcoin
That's exactly where I am coming from. Forty-Eight hours ago, I would have thought that there was an outside chance of it ever hitting $1. Now, I'm not so sure. Maybe there's an outside chance of $2; I think $5 is wildly unlikely. And, of course, $55k was just a joke. Given that, I'd rather take advantage of our family vacation and get some enjoyment out of it than hold it hoping to make another few hundred bucks.
For me, this is the flip side of the frequently quoted adage, "You haven't lost anything if you don't sell."
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As of right now, it's at $0.67.
I'm just giving you a hard time, Hards...I know that this is funny money and there is no rational explanation for what is going on with it. I'm pretty sure I'm going to sell within a couple days. We don't honestly have very much -- I started with about $25 -- certainly not enough to ever "make a difference" in our lives. So, I think we're going to sell it soon to give each of our kids some spending money on our upcoming vacation.
Lol, I'm wrong a lot on investing. I get crushed when I pick stocks. One thing I've been right on is my BTC and ETH money.
I stay away from DOGE because I know what it is. If you guys wanna full on gamble on it, go nuts. I've explained why I don't have any faith in it, and why I know a ton of people are going to get burned on it.
But yea, I'm just a dip stick on the internet who makes bad plays often!
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Thats been one of the glaring inconsistencies to all of this. So many people don't comprehend even the most basic differences between Doge and BTC. The buy volume to keep the price rising as supply continues to rise will sink it sooner rather than later. If someone is talking price targets in the triple digits, much less higher, they have no clue what they are talking about
Yup. Look at what the market cap would be at $1. Literal house of cards.
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I'm getting out of Doge at $10k or maybe $0.05. Musk might make a lot of short term millionaires this weekend or a lot of unhappy guys in their basement (me).
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I'm getting out of Doge
I see what you did there
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I know most of you guys are DOGE value investors but hear me out:
I'd be buying the $NET dip today if it wasn't already such a large part of my portfolio. I've been a happy customer of theirs for years.
NET is already trading at ~50x sales right now, so you should be prepared for price volatility. They're a long-term hold, imo.
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DOGE value investors
LOL
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Warriors
Short the QQQ. Went short during the late hour rally but like my position.
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Warriors
Short the QQQ. When short during the late hour rally but like my position.
Feel like the may run stops during the first half of the day tomorrow, but going into next week, short feels like the play. Market feels like it’s on fumes and good earnings reports consistently getting sold off is ominous
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buy the dips
I do, every time I buy the chips!
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Feel like the may run stops during the first half of the day tomorrow, but going into next week, short feels like the play. Market feels like it’s on fumes and good earnings reports consistently getting sold off is ominous
I'll preface this by reiterating that I don't try to time the market; the closest to that I come is by accumulating cash when I don't see anything valuable to buy, and then allocating the piled up cash when I do.
So having said that, this doesn't feel like a top or sell signal to me. Earnings have been massive, even better than expected, so things have sort of chugged along. If earnings outpace market increases I'd be happy as it would take a bit of froth out of the indexes. But the most important thing is what the following quarters' rate of earnings change looks like. I suspect that YoY earnings will continue to be massive, and the rate of change will slow down a bit (it almost has to). I think that means continued flat to up for the next two quarters.
The risk IMO is inflation and any resulting Fed increase in interest rates. But I am still a net buyer here.
Had my buy-write-dividend capture trade called away from me today but I'll take a 284% annualized rate of return any time.
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I know most of you guys are DOGE value investors but hear me out:
I'd be buying the $NET dip today if it is wasn't already such a large part of my portfolio. I've been a happy customer of theirs for years.
NET is already trading at ~50x sales right now, so you should be prepared for price volatility. They're a long-term hold, imo.
Bought at $17. Buying more is in the realm of possibility but of course my average cost base goes way up... still, it’s a great company.
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I got my docs yesterday to vote for the IPOE merger to take SoFi public. Looks like 5/28 is the merger date. The ticker should change from IPOE to SOFI on 6/1.
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Is anybody else concerned about how easy it is for hackers -- be they ransom-seekers or geopolitical enemies -- to severely hurt our economy?
Is it impossible to design computer systems that are impervious to these kinds of attacks? If not, then why haven't hackers made off with trillions of dollars from Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab brokerage accounts?
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Is anybody else concerned about how easy it is for hackers -- be they ransom-seekers or geopolitical enemies -- to severely hurt our economy?
Is it impossible to design computer systems that are impervious to these kinds of attacks? If not, then why haven't hackers made off with trillions of dollars from Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab brokerage accounts?
I'm reading a book at the moment and they talked about an "air gapped" computer, i.e. not online, as part of the storyline.
Is it possible to have a system for the gas pipeline for example that is to itself and not online where outside hackers can attempt to access? I thought I've read somewhere that some government agency sites are not connected to the outside world so the outside world doesn't have access to them.
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I'm reading a book at the moment and they talked about an "air gapped" computer, i.e. not online, as part of the storyline.
Is it possible to have a system for the gas pipeline for example that is to itself and not online where outside hackers can attempt to access? I thought I've read somewhere that some government agency sites are not connected to the outside world so the outside world doesn't have access to them.
A true air gapped computer can never touch the internet, nor anything that has come into contact with the internet... including USBs.
There isn't a good way to build infrastructure without using the internet. Unless you want to employ a lot more people and remove a lot of remote access... which would be extremely expensive.
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Is anybody else concerned about how easy it is for hackers -- be they ransom-seekers or geopolitical enemies -- to severely hurt our economy?
Is it impossible to design computer systems that are impervious to these kinds of attacks? If not, then why haven't hackers made off with trillions of dollars from Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab brokerage accounts?
Yes, it is very difficult to design something that is impenetrable. But the best way to gain access is via the weakest link... which is almost always humans. Look into the human element being the number one way of exploitation. There are a ton of internet videos that deal with this topic. Here is a decent one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpdcVfq2dB8
Changed the link. This one is much better.
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Yes, it is very difficult to design something that is impenetrable. But the best way to gain access is via the weakest link... which is almost always humans. Look into the human element being the number one way of exploitation. There are a ton of internet videos that deal with this topic. Here is a decent one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpdcVfq2dB8
Changed the link. This one is much better.
We paid for 3rd party penetration testing (har har) a few years back. We got owned on day 1 when a guy followed an employee into one of our buildings, set up in a conference room, and plugged into the network. When asked who he was, he said he was waiting for an interview.
A second anecdote: I work closely with an HFT firm here in Chicago that has an extensive crypto team. The challenge there is that there are physical wallets on site. They were discussing with another friend of mine about adding more physical security (hardened walls, windows, ceilings, floors, ducts, etc) to protect their assets and employees. All that it takes is for one employee with a gun to their heads to walk the bad guys through security, there's just not an easy way around it without turning your downtown office building into fort knox.
If a bad guy wants in, they get in. God, if I gave you $30k today would you give me your work laptop & RSA token and tell your work people it got stolen? $100k? People are the problem with security.
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We paid for 3rd party penetration testing (har har) a few years back. We got owned on day 1 when a guy followed an employee into one of our buildings, set up in a conference room, and plugged into the network. When asked who he was, he said he was waiting for an interview.
A second anecdote: I work closely with an HFT firm here in Chicago that has an extensive crypto team. The challenge there is that there are physical wallets on site. They were discussing with another friend of mine about adding more physical security (hardened walls, windows, ceilings, floors, ducts, etc) to protect their assets and employees. All that it takes is for one employee with a gun to their heads to walk the bad guys through security, there's just not an easy way around it without turning your downtown office building into fort knox.
If a bad guy wants in, they get in. God, if I gave you $30k today would you give me your work laptop & RSA token and tell your work people it got stolen? $100k? People are the problem with security.
Bingo.
I mean hell, you don't even have to be particularly sharp at phishing to make it work. My company's network and security was compromised about 5 years ago. Someone blasted our listserv with an email from "our VP" at the time. His name was in the identifier, but the address was like jdfhsd22387@yahoo.com or something. But our former administrative assistant was like "oh its from Kurt!" and complied and swung open the backdoor. Luckily we had secondary measures in place that stopped true damage, but its that damn easy.
I have a friend who had a coworker get a text from their CEO that told her to go buy a bunch of Visa Gift Cards, wasnt actually the CEO's number, which she had already, and she didn't even pause, she just went right ahead and bought them. People can be exceptionally daft and thats all someone trying to use social engineering needs.
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Pretty scary stuff.
It's actually amazing somebody truly nefarious hasn't poisoned water supplies, killed power to a huge percentage of the country, etc.
Some believe China "weaponized" COVID-19, and who knows, maybe that will eventually have been proven true. But imagine weaponizing attacks on pretty much everything we need to function as a nation.
Sorry for the alarmist stuff, but here we had hackers bring an entire pipeline to its knees.
which would be extremely expensive.
What will be extremely expensive -- probably in American lives, as well as capital -- is if the wrong people get control of our grid.
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Pretty scary stuff.
It's actually amazing somebody truly nefarious hasn't poisoned water supplies, killed power to a huge percentage of the country, etc.
Some believe China "weaponized" COVID-19, and who knows, maybe that will eventually have been proven true. But imagine weaponizing attacks on pretty much everything we need to function as a nation.
Sorry for the alarmist stuff, but here we had hackers bring an entire pipeline to its knees.
What will be extremely expensive -- probably in American lives, as well as capital -- is if the wrong people get control of our grid.
Ain't happening. You need to come to terms with the human element of all of this. Nothing is unhackable, nothing is truly safe, and there are easily exploitable, destructive things that are very low tech and impossible to quickly replace. Hell, if we get a large enough solar flare to fry the transformers in the power grid, the time to repair them is in the order of years. Meaning, reduced or no power... for years.
Society is a fragile construct. We've been fortunate to make it this far.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/solar-flare-this-week-illluminated-power-grid-vulnerability/
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$SHIB
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Ain't happening. You need to come to terms with the human element of all of this. Nothing is unhackable, nothing is truly safe, and there are easily exploitable, destructive things that are very low tech and impossible to quickly replace. Hell, if we get a large enough solar flare to fry the transformers in the power grid, the time to repair them is in the order of years. Meaning, reduced or no power... for years.
Society is a fragile construct. We've been fortunate to make it this far.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/solar-flare-this-week-illluminated-power-grid-vulnerability/
Great. We can just use this thread to replace the Doom thread.
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Ain't happening. You need to come to terms with the human element of all of this. Nothing is unhackable, nothing is truly safe, and there are easily exploitable, destructive things that are very low tech and impossible to quickly replace. Hell, if we get a large enough solar flare to fry the transformers in the power grid, the time to repair them is in the order of years. Meaning, reduced or no power... for years.
Society is a fragile construct. We've been fortunate to make it this far.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/solar-flare-this-week-illluminated-power-grid-vulnerability/
This past weekend I started listening to a new podcast from the BBC called "The Lazarus Heist." The first several episodes were focused on the Sony hack, but the most recent episode focused on a cyber heist from the central bank of Bangladesh. They got away with about $100 million, but it's amazing how close they may have come to getting $1B -- according to the podcast, only a crazy coincidence involving the address of a bank in Manilla prevented it. It also was extremely interesting how they manipulated different time zones, work weeks and holidays to maximize the amount of time that would pass before the hack was discovered.
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https://youtu.be/x2xIgseFCpc
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https://youtu.be/x2xIgseFCpc
There's a reason Michael Burry caught a visit from the SEC and then stopped using twitter.
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Inflation has arrived
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Wags
It is going to get much worse over the short term. Things might get a bit ugly out there.
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And how all the eXPerTs were surprised to see the inflation in today’s report is beyond me.
From what I’m reading this is going to be a wild ride of a summer. Glad I got all my summer project pricing locked in to already higher then normal pricing but I have a feeling it’ll get worse.
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And how all the eXPerTs were surprised to see the inflation in today’s report is beyond me.
From what I’m reading this is going to be a wild ride of a summer. Glad I got all my summer project pricing locked in to already higher then normal pricing but I have a feeling it’ll get worse.
If a dumbass like me could see it coming, I can't fathom how these nerds couldn't!
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If a dumbass like me could see it coming, I can't fathom how these nerds couldn't!
Haha, right!! That’s how I feel, I know nothing about this stuff but had a pretty good sense it was coming
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Inflation has arrived
The question is what will be worse: the actual inflation or the public panic to it?
Similar to the toilet paper shortage last spring.
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Is this the start of something huge ... or a pause ... or a blip ... or nothing?
Tesla suspends Bitcoin transactions on concern over energy usage
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3695654-tesla-suspends-bitcoin-transactions-on-concern-over-energy-usage
"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has suspended vehicle purchases using Bitcoin (BTC-USD)," tweets company CEO Elon Musk. "We are concerned about rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels for Bitcoin mining and transactions, especially coal, which has the worst emissions of any fuel."
He adds that cryptocurrency is a good idea, but its use cannot come at a great cost to the environment.
He further adds that Tesla won't be selling any of its Bitcoin stash, and plans to begin re-using for transactions once mining transitions to more sustainable energy. He also says Tesla is looking into other cryptos that use only a fraction of Bitcoin's energy.
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He further adds that Tesla won't be selling any of its Bitcoin stash until they need to avoid missing earnings again at which time they'll sell enough for a comfortable beat, and plans to begin re-using for transactions once mining transitions to more sustainable energy. He also says Tesla is looking into other cryptos that use only a fraction of Bitcoin's energy.
FIFY, because last quarter would have been a miss without the $0.25/share from Bitcoin cap gains taxes after he took a big position and then talked it up. Not saying that was illegal but it skirts the boundaries.
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If a dumbass like me could see it coming, I can't fathom how these nerds couldn't!
knew it was coming, but didn't think uncle joe could ruin the economy this fast...and he didn't even leave any chocolates. got gas?
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The question is what will be worse: the actual inflation or the public panic to it?
Similar to the toilet paper shortage last spring.
Public panic. The average American is too stupid to comprehend economics and too inconsiderate of their fellow man to not hoard. We’re a confederacy of dunces
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knew it was coming, but didn't think uncle joe could ruin the economy this fast...and he didn't even leave any chocolates. got gas?
TIL the economy is ruined
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knew it was coming, but didn't think uncle joe could ruin the economy this fast...and he didn't even leave any chocolates. got gas?
need to take sumthin' for that BDS, tucker.
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FIFY, because last quarter would have been a miss without the $0.25/share from Bitcoin cap gains taxes after he took a big position and then talked it up. Not saying that was illegal but it skirts the boundaries.
I'm just the messenger here. Not a Bitcoin investor or really even a follower of crypto at all.
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Morning take from Yahoo Finance:
"The simplest read on the market's reaction to this data is that higher inflation will lead to earlier rate hikes from the Fed and all else equal higher rates are worse for stocks. This leaves the stocks that have done best — in this case tech stocks — most vulnerable.
But in thinking about the "why" driving April's price increases, it becomes less clear that this data is so reflexively negative for the stock market. Janney's chief fixed income strategist Guy LeBas said Wednesday that this data is yet another reflection of what we've covered in the last several editions of the Morning Brief: rising demand.
"There just isn't a good historical analog for today's core CPI print in the post-70s era," LeBas said. "I can tell you that what it represents is consumer demand rebounding faster than the economy can create supply in the short term. That's a good thing for corporate profits."
Major sources of the price increase in April included the used car market, lodging away from home, and airfares. Flush consumers looking to move around more and travel is a straightforward re-opening theme.
And as the team at Bank of America Global Research said in a note Wednesday, "more persistent sources of inflation were tamer. Rents and OER both came in at 0.2% mom, which is relatively in line with the recent trend."
The firm added that, "medical care inflation was flat as the boost from stimulus around the turn of the year faded."
Prices rising in sectors of the economy that were severely impacted by the pandemic while housing and medical costs remain tame is exactly what Fed officials mean when they say inflation pressures are likely to be "transitory."
At the end of 2020, we argued that the reason for the market's rally amid a global pandemic was driven by the same factor that over the long run always drives stock prices — higher earnings. The ability for firms to exert operating leverage after a recession and also raise prices into a strong demand environment are two positive bottom-line dynamics for corporates today.
That today's inflationary backdrop should power future earnings growth does not, of course, mean that investors must or should or will price in this dynamic. And as Wednesday's action made clear, the market's interpretation of the most recent inflation data is that higher rates are coming sooner than expected.
Wall Street economists in our inbox on Wednesday also seemed to agree that even higher inflation readings are coming in the months ahead.
As those reports stack up, questions about whether the Fed will hold its nerve and still refer to these inflation pressures as "transitory" will only grow louder. How the market handles those data points is anyone's guess.
But at least for one month, a jarring inflation report still fits cleanly with an economic theme that could not be more clear: this is a demand-driven recovery."
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Interesting round-up, TS.
Also, historically, rising rates aren't necessarily bad for stock prices. Rates were much, much higher than today during both the Reagan and Clinton market surges, for example.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/jbartash/status/1392820209359147011
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Question for all you old farts who lived through the inflation of the 1970s...
Do asset values (equities, commodities, etc.) generally rise with inflation? Common sense tells me that if prices are going up, revenues are also going up, which means valuations are also going up? Is that a correct assumption?
In this case really the only big losers are people holding lots of cash or low interest bonds. Correct?
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Interesting round-up, TS.
Also, historically, rising rates aren't necessarily bad for stock prices. Rates were much, much higher than today during both the Reagan and Clinton market surges, for example.
It's not the current rates, it's the direction of rates that the market considers IMO (and Buffett's FWIW).
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Talk of inflation is nuts.
You're all either pushing a political bias or have PTSD from the 70s.
Go look at what wall street is saying about CPI.
Basically, it's catching up to where we would be without a pandemic. And it's all supply related to the pandemic.
Much Ado about nothing.
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Not great for the cryptos
https://www.barrons.com/articles/binance-is-under-federal-investigation-bitcoin-coinbase-and-the-crypto-world-are-reeling-51620940200?siteid=yhoof2
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Not great for the cryptos
https://www.barrons.com/articles/binance-is-under-federal-investigation-bitcoin-coinbase-and-the-crypto-world-are-reeling-51620940200?siteid=yhoof2
Money laundering? You mean the same thing that HSBC and other global financial groups have been found to do? I assume binance will get a similar slap on the wrist.
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Talk of inflation is nuts.
You're all either pushing a political bias or have PTSD from the 70s.
Go look at what wall street is saying about CPI.
Basically, it's catching up to where we would be without a pandemic. And it's all supply related to the pandemic.
Much Ado about nothing.
seriously? is that you baghdad bob? nothing to see here, eyn'a? next thing you're gonna tell us is marketwatch is fox news in disguise? come on man! you a junkie?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-climbs-in-april-to-the-highest-level-in-13-years-cpi-shows-11620823628
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seriously? is that you baghdad bob? nothing to see here, eyn'a? next thing you're gonna tell us is marketwatch is fox news in disguise? come on man! you a junkie?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-climbs-in-april-to-the-highest-level-in-13-years-cpi-shows-11620823628
Yes, for 1 month inflation was high. Before that it was very low for 1 year. Did you even read the article you posted? Here's a couple quotes relevant to the post you're refuting:
> The pace of inflation has surged after years of languishing at unusually low levels largely due to the rapid reopening of the U.S. economy.
also
> Senior Federal Reserve officials, who are supposed to protect the U.S. from high inflation, insist the increase is temporary.
I hope that you pay someone to manage your money for you.
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Yes, for 1 month inflation was high. Before that it was very low for 1 year. Did you even read the article you posted? Here's a couple quotes relevant to the post you're refuting:
> The pace of inflation has surged after years of languishing at unusually low levels largely due to the rapid reopening of the U.S. economy.
also
> Senior Federal Reserve officials, who are supposed to protect the U.S. from high inflation, insist the increase is temporary.
I hope that you pay someone to manage your money for you.
absolutely have a money man, but re-read jesmu
talk of inflation is "nuts"?? inflation is inflation, i don't care what politics one is. what is gas up to? food? i love the excuse making and the cnn talking points. talk to most people and there is A LOT of talk of 70's syle stagflation. i hope the hell not, even if it were to get uncle joey impeached, i don't want this upon our nation. yes i know a potus has never and will not ever be impeached for driving our once prospering economy into the underworld, but just saying i would not sacrafice my hard earned money for that as some on the other side would have to get rid of 45.
jemu said go look at what ww is saying about cpi-it's right there-13 year high...so far
much ado about nothing? i hope so, but i think we are only seeing the previews. there has been too much feigning going on. the orange haired wonder woman spinning like a top; not what we were promised from day one
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This isn't stagflation at all. This is making up for lack of price movement in 2020. This is economy reopening and supply side response.
https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1392481679596564484?s=19
https://twitter.com/greg_ip/status/1392541031850287104?s=19
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yes i know a potus has never and will not ever be impeached for driving our once prospering economy into the underworld
you do know that the economy was doing well until the then-potus admittedly and intentionally underplayed and then totally ignored the pandemic, right? and as a bonus, he has the blood of more than half a million americans on his hands. (RIP Herman Cain) but yeah ... with the economy recovering under the current president, you're gonna go with "uncle joey is ruining the economy"? i hope tucker giving you mouth-to-mouth can help you survive your BDS.
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This is a really enjoyable and helpful thread. Please don't get it locked.
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Stagflation? What fantasy world is that from? Wait, nevermind. Reality-proof.
And gas is up to $2.89/g here. Horrors!
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Stagflation? What fantasy world is that from? Wait, nevermind. Reality-proof.
And gas is up to $2.89/g here. Horrors!
Complaining about gas prices is the sure sign of someone graduating to a certain age. I thought the boomers were different, but apparently not.
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absolutely have a money man, but re-read jesmu
talk of inflation is "nuts"?? inflation is inflation, i don't care what politics one is. what is gas up to? food? i love the excuse making and the cnn talking points. talk to most people and there is A LOT of talk of 70's syle stagflation. i hope the hell not, even if it were to get uncle joey impeached, i don't want this upon our nation. yes i know a potus has never and will not ever be impeached for driving our once prospering economy into the underworld, but just saying i would not sacrafice my hard earned money for that as some on the other side would have to get rid of 45.
jemu said go look at what ww is saying about cpi-it's right there-13 year high...so far
much ado about nothing? i hope so, but i think we are only seeing the previews. there has been too much feigning going on. the orange haired wonder woman spinning like a top; not what we were promised from day one
This is absurd even for you, which is saying something.
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Complaining about gas prices is the sure sign of someone graduating to a certain age. I thought the boomers were different, but apparently not.
Haha this was my thought. My wife’s grandpa always asks me what the price of gas is in Milwaukee and I honestly couldn’t tell him unless I was standing right in front of the pump.
It’s just kind of a price I will pay no matter what it is. I feel if prices for everything else went up 10%, but gas stayed low, some people would be celebrating.
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This boomer has zero idea what the price of gas, nor do I care. I have a friend that lives in NYC and whenever he asks me how much gas is in MKE, I tell him $10 a gallon.
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My summer before senior year of college ('09) gas was north of $4/gal. It's been 12 years and the price is still significantly lower than it was then. And, adjusted for inflation, the stagflation-era price of gas was way higher than it is now. The idea that gas prices going up to aprx $3/gal is a marker of impending economic collapse is silly alarmism. If anything, it's a regression to a long term mean.
But also, "inflation" is a crappy colloquialism. It has a technical meaning but that is largely divorced from the lived reality of normal people in this country. Sure, to economic, policy, or financial professionals the technical "inflation" matters. But to most people we really only have the things we actually spend on to gauge whether prices are rising (and, to that end that's really the only thing that matters to us... is our paycheck getting us more, less, or the same than it did a year ago)
We've beaten the dead horse of tuition inflation here, but obviously that sector of prices has skyrocketed. Rents have skyrocketed. The price of video games has not. I paid $60 for Zelda on the N64 back in the day, and if I felt like buying a new video game now, I'd pay $60. As discussed above, gas prices have fallen 25ish%. Spot prices for some things are spiking due to supply-constraints, but others are not spiking.
Is "inflation" affecting the economy? Sure. Is it higher than it was last year or the year before that? Sure. Is it high relative to literally any point in the 20th and 21st centuries? Nope. The only reason to freak out about this is if you *want* to freak out about it.
(edited to fix my math of years since 2009. I can arithmetic, I swear.)
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As a whole, the USA consumer has been spoiled and that is going to be changing. I believe that we are in for some serious sticker shock on products that we basically considered commodities over the past twenty years. The tariffs caused an uptick but it was slowly passed on to the consumer over time. We are seeing price increases of 10-20% across the board in Asia and suppliers not holding pricing order to order in some cases.
Not to be a broken record, but these increases coupled with insane shipping costs are going to be passed on to the consumer. I have never been someone that watched inflation closely and there has not been a need to for a long time. I 100% believe that this is an issue that should be watched closely by everyone. In addition to inflation concerns, I am very concerned on supply issues on consumer goods, autos and everything in between. Our business is hearing horror stories on a daily basis.
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This boomer has zero idea what the price of gas, nor do I care. I have a friend that lives in NYC and whenever he asks me how much gas is in MKE, I tell him $10 a gallon.
Same 😂, except the boomer part
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How much of this is just pent up demand that's been ginned up by stimulus payments though? As demand is met, and as the economy moves away from stimulus support, won't prices stabilize? I don't think there is much structural that will keep prices rising over time.
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Fluff
The stimulus checks definitely helped cause on an uptick, but I believe the wealth effect factor has played a bigger role. An awful lot of money has been made in the market, crypto and housing over the past year and that is real money. Many of our clients cater to mid to upper class consumer and they are not be bumped up by $1400 stimulus checks.
That said, the US government has spent/printed an awful lot of money over the past decade and that has yet to be felt in regards to inflation. To me, a perfect storm is brewing. I am not sure when, but I think we are going to be in for a tough road ahead some time in the next year or two, could be sooner.
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Gotcha. Thanks.
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This boomer has zero idea what the price of gas, nor do I care. I have a friend that lives in NYC and whenever he asks me how much gas is in MKE, I tell him $10 a gallon.
Same 😂, except the boomer part
Me three. Every now and then one of my parents will ask me what gas prices are here and I generally don't really know. Maybe I can guess within $0.25...maybe not. When my tank is nearing empty I have to fill it; it doesn't really matter what the price is. I realize that I'm very fortunate and that for many people the price increases cause real financial harship.
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How much of this is just pent up demand that's been ginned up by stimulus payments though? As demand is met, and as the economy moves away from stimulus support, won't prices stabilize? I don't think there is much structural that will keep prices rising over time.
It is primarily pent up demand and is being fueled by 1) high savings rates for the last 12-15 months for those who didn't lose their jobs due to pandemic and 2) govt. stimulus. People are flush with cash and tired of staying home...they are ready to get out and live life and have fun again...and they will spend to do so.
In my business (automotive) we are seeing sales skyrocket starting in March & continuing through April. May is currently pacing well over 100% higher than last year. The only thing that might slow it down is lack of supply due to ongoing shortage of computer chips which is beginning to impact production. It is a very real possibility that our dealers will run out of cars before production catches back up. Our brand is fortunate as we are facing less of an impact than many others.
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That said, the US government has spent/printed an awful lot of money over the past decade and that has yet to be felt in regards to inflation. To me, a perfect storm is brewing. I am not sure when, but I think we are going to be in for a tough road ahead some time in the next year or two, could be sooner.
Here is a counter point from Krugman:
"In particular, I’m hearing a lot of buzz around how the Fed’s wanton abuse of its power to create money will soon lead to runaway inflation — or maybe that we’re already experiencing high inflation, but it’s being hidden by dishonest government statistics.
There was a lot of talk along those lines a decade ago, but it faded out as it became obvious to everyone that hyperinflation just wasn’t happening. Now it’s back, I think for a couple of reasons.
For one thing, we are seeing some actual inflation as a recovering economy runs into bottlenecks — shortages of lumber, shipping containers, used cars, etc. I believe, and the Fed believes, that these shortages are temporary, that this is only a blip and that inflation will subside; but we could be wrong, and at least there’s some substance to this concern.
<snip>
Anyone claiming that big increases in M2 presage surging inflation was wrong again and again since the 1980s. I mean really, really wrong:
There are actually two big fallacies in the “printing press goes brrr -> inflation” story.
One of them is what I think of as the doctrine of immaculate inflation: the notion that an increase in the money supply somehow translates directly into inflation without causing economic overheating along the way. Many people have fallen for that fallacy over the years. Among them was no less a figure than Milton Friedman."
(https://images2.imgbox.com/8b/84/PFVnUrLC_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/PFVnUrLC)
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TBF, there has never been a printing of money Krugman didn't simultaneously like and think didn't go far enough.
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TBF, there has never been a printing of money Krugman didn't simultaneously like and think didn't go far enough.
He's not really wrong though. We have been printing money pretty much continuously for nearly 40 years and haven't seen much core inflation to show for it.
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TSmith
I do not disagree with most of the article. There are a lot of moving pieces in the world today and excessive printing of money is only piece of the puzzle. My point earlier is that coupled with the additional pieces of the puzzle, the printing press might create the tipping point. I believe the can has been kicked down the road since 2001 and sooner or later we were/are going to pay the price for the spending.
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Some folks say Bitcoin can't be used to buy stuff, but it came in handy for paying off the hackers who brought a major pipeline to its knees. Totally untraceable, just the way the criminals like it!
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TSmith
I do not disagree with most of the article. There are a lot of moving pieces in the world today and excessive printing of money is only piece of the puzzle. My point earlier is that coupled with the additional pieces of the puzzle, the printing press might create the tipping point. I believe the can has been kicked down the road since 2001 and sooner or later we were/are going to pay the price for the spending.
Yes, that's fair, I was merely sharing a different viewpoint and not throwing shade on your observations or opinion. I honestly don't know how it will play out but am smart enough to recognize that I have no expertise in this [monetary policy] area.
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Some folks say Bitcoin can't be used to buy stuff, but it came in handy for paying off the hackers who brought a major pipeline to its knees. Totally untraceable, just the way the criminals like it!
Speaking of bitcoins, why does it take so much energy to do 1 transaction? I read this:
A single bitcoin transaction uses roughly 707.6 kilowatt-hours of electrical energy–equivalent to the power consumed by an average U.S. household over 24 days,
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Speaking of bitcoins, why does it take so much energy to do 1 transaction? I read this:
A single bitcoin transaction uses roughly 707.6 kilowatt-hours of electrical energy–equivalent to the power consumed by an average U.S. household over 24 days,
Why indeed.
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Speaking of bitcoins, why does it take so much energy to do 1 transaction? I read this:
A single bitcoin transaction uses roughly 707.6 kilowatt-hours of electrical energy–equivalent to the power consumed by an average U.S. household over 24 days,
So basically each Bitcoin transaction is computer algorithms solving numerical puzzles or equations to produce the batches of transactions. And one computer is only doing fractions of the data processing for the full transaction. So think of when your computer is straining and using up all of its computer power, it gets hot, the fan is loud, etc…computer rigs set up for Bitcoing mining/processing are super high powered versions that are working like that constantly. And hundreds are working per transaction. So your average server room for a company uses much more electricity than a normal home. Well Bitcoin mining and processing is like a bunch of de facto server farms
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So basically each Bitcoin transaction is computer algorithms solving numerical puzzles or equations to produce the batches of transactions. And one computer is only doing fractions of the data processing for the full transaction. So think of when your computer is straining and using up all of its computer power, it gets hot, the fan is loud, etc…computer rigs set up for Bitcoing mining/processing are super high powered versions that are working like that constantly. And hundreds are working per transaction. So your average server room for a company uses much more electricity than a normal home. Well Bitcoin mining and processing is like a bunch of de facto server farms
Thanks. So will the power supply needed always be this high? How can this ever be a mainstream way of conducting business?
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The power argument is what a bunch of haters are pushing.
Why don't we ever ask the same of the current financial system?
(https://ark-invest.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/bitcoin-graph-8-ARK-Invest.png)
Also ... idles devices (phones, iPads, laptops, computers) consume 4x more power than bitcoin in a year.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/energy-used-by-idle-device-in-the-us-can-power-bitcoin-for-4-years
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Thanks. So will the power supply needed always be this high? How can this ever be a mainstream way of conducting business?
Proof of stake and green energy usage is the solution. It is coming within a year for Ethereum.
And don't worry about bitcoin, once the "flipping" happens, bitcoin will collapse and become a bit player.
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The power argument is what a bunch of haters are pushing.
Why don't we ever ask the same of the current financial system?
(https://ark-invest.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/bitcoin-graph-8-ARK-Invest.png)
Also ... idles devices (phones, iPads, laptops, computers) consume 4x more power than bitcoin in a year.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/energy-used-by-idle-device-in-the-us-can-power-bitcoin-for-4-years
That’s misleading. The market value of gold mined in a year is like 9x the value of Bitcoin (2500 tons vs 324k coins).
I would also assume the same costs to maintain the Bitcoin financial system aren’t in the mining costs.
So yeah other things can get more efficient, but it doesn’t mean crypto is an incredibly energy intensive way to create value.
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That’s misleading. The market value of gold mined in a year is like 9x the value of Bitcoin (2500 tons vs 324k coins).
I would also assume the same costs to maintain the Bitcoin financial system aren’t in the mining costs.
So yeah other things can get more efficient, but it doesn’t mean crypto is an incredibly energy intensive way to create value.
This is so close to talking about PER stats. Basketball reference needs to get on this.
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That’s misleading. The market value of gold mined in a year is like 9x the value of Bitcoin (2500 tons vs 324k coins).
I would also assume the same costs to maintain the Bitcoin financial system aren’t in the mining costs.
So yeah other things can get more efficient, but it doesn’t mean crypto is an incredibly energy intensive way to create value.
Not sure that is a good measure.
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That’s misleading. The market value of gold mined in a year is like 9x the value of Bitcoin (2500 tons vs 324k coins).
I would also assume the same costs to maintain the Bitcoin financial system aren’t in the mining costs.
So yeah other things can get more efficient, but it doesn’t mean crypto is an incredibly energy intensive way to create value.
Okay now add in the environmental, and human costs of mining gold.
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Okay now add in the environmental, and human costs of mining gold.
Consider that gold has intrinsic value
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Consider that gold has intrinsic value
Right, but that isn't what we use it for, generally. We use less than 8% of what we mine every year in electronics.
Also, should we discover a lode of gold that would drive prices down and increase human and environmental harm.
I'm not suggesting that Bitcoin's power usage is acceptable, but I think a lot of people don't quite understand why it uses POW instead of POS protocols. BTC will never work for everyday transactions.
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Right, but that isn't what we use it for, generally. We use less than 8% of what we mine every year in electronics.
Also, should we discover a lode of gold that would drive prices down and increase human and environmental harm.
I'm not suggesting that Bitcoin's power usage is acceptable, but I think a lot of people don't quite understand why it uses POW instead of POS protocols. BTC will never work for everyday transactions.
I think far less even know what POW vs POS means
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I think far less even know what POW vs POS means
One was a block you could hit in the original Mario Bros. arcade game while the other was what I'd call the car I drove when I was sixteen, aina?
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Thank you overreacting irrational market.
Step 1 - Rumor gets floated that AMZN will enter brick-and-mortar space through Whole Foods locations. CVS gets marked down, never mind that even if rumor is true it would be a year before this happens
Step 2 - TSmith34 goes long short term calls
Step 3 - Profit
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why no talk of loss porn?
I'll go first, I sold AAPL in late 2016.
How about you?
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NEW YORK (AP) -- As COVID-19 ravaged the world last year, CEOs’ big pay packages seemed to be under as much threat as everything else.
Fortunately for those CEOs, many had boards of directors willing to see the pandemic as an extraordinary event beyond their control. Across the country, boards made changes to the intricate formulas that determine their CEOs’ pay – and other moves – that helped make up for losses created by the crisis.
As a result, pay packages rose yet again last year for the CEOs of the biggest companies, even though the pandemic sent the economy to its worst quarter on record and slashed corporate profits around the world. The median pay package for a CEO at an S&P 500 company hit $12.7 million in 2020, according to data analyzed by Equilar for The Associated Press. That means half the CEOs in the survey made more, and half made less. It’s 5% more than the median pay for that same group of CEOs in 2019 and an acceleration from the 4.1% climb in last year’s survey.
Thank goodness, these poor men and women didn't have to miss a meal and were able to keep roofs over their heads.
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why no talk of loss porn?
I'll go first, I sold AAPL in late 2016.
How about you?
I held two stocks far too long. One was a ADIC, a storage management hardware and software company that eventually got acquired at 1/4 its peak price. The other was a Chinese solar firm that I finally bailed on at 1/10th its peak. Those two cost me $400K.
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I held two stocks far too long. One was a ADIC, a storage management hardware and software company that eventually got acquired at 1/4 its peak price. The other was a Chinese solar firm that I finally bailed on at 1/10th its peak. Those two cost me $400K.
Ya never want to hold ADIC for too long
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I held two stocks far too long. One was a ADIC, a storage management hardware and software company that eventually got acquired at 1/4 its peak price. The other was a Chinese solar firm that I finally bailed on at 1/10th its peak. Those two cost me $400K.
Jeezus Criminy ... 400 large? I appreciate you sharing because now my pathetic losses now don't seem that bad! (Sorry about that.) My worst was WCOM back during the dot-com frenzy, but that was only $8,800. Lost a few grand more on several others back then: NT, PALM, LU, JDSU, AOL ... all the hot names, because how could anybody go wrong?
I got out of the market for several years after that debacle and by the time I got back in I was a much more "boring" investor: JNJ, MSFT, PEP, WEC, AAPL, MCD, PM, MMM, NEE ... so I don't have many that have zoomed out of orbit, but I also don't have tragic stories.
My biggest "mistakes" have been stocks I either sold too soon (such as DIS last year, TGT a couple years ago, DE a year or two before that), or stocks I identified as buys but passed on anyway only to watch them soar (AMZN and FB years ago, TWLO more recently). I passed on LMT at 82 back in 2012 only to finally end up buying significantly higher years later. That kind of dopey stuff.
The thing about losers or mistakes is that hopefully we learn from them and become better investors. I'm sure that was the case for you.
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I still made money on Advanced Digital, just left $300K on the table by holding on way too long. Took a bath on Sun Power, however.
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I haven't had a large loss, just the opportunity cost of holding that are trading sideways for forever trying to avoid losses...
I held GRUB for way too long, just to get out at breakeven. I cashed out AAPL at ~$90.
I'm unlikely to lose money on NET and IPOE (trading as SOFI starting Tuesday), but I will likely hold for too long. My exit planning is based on moonshots instead of common sense.
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I bought dips in CHK and RIG and made easy doubles...and then continued to hold them as they plummeted again cause in my mind they were cruising to $100+.
I sold long held DIS shares I’d received and further accumulated as a kid and teen around $75 in 13/14 cause it was historically really high and I wanted to free up cash to play around with other names....whoops.
I'm unlikely to lose money on NET and IPOE (trading as SOFI starting Tuesday), but I will likely hold for too long. My exit planning is based on moonshots instead of common sense.
Be careful with IPOE/SOFI. I say that solely as being incredibly wary of Chamath and thinking he’s a total snake oil salesman who wants to dump shares into bag holders he accumulates through pomp and preaching on Twitter and CNBC. This sort of illustrates what I’m talking about
https://twitter.com/epsilontheory/status/1397749998733910016?s=21
I like Cloudflare a lot though. They have some really smart people and are doing some really cool stuff. Graham-Cumming, their CTO, is brilliant
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Be careful with IPOE/SOFI. I say that solely as being incredibly wary of Chamath and thinking he’s a total snake oil salesman who wants to dump shares into bag holders he accumulates through pomp and preaching on Twitter and CNBC. This sort of illustrates what I’m talking about
https://twitter.com/epsilontheory/status/1397749998733910016?s=21
I like Cloudflare a lot though. They have some really smart people and are doing some really cool stuff. Graham-Cumming, their CTO, is brilliant
I'm both a NET and a SOFI customer. Both have simplified products compared to their competitors, and excellent customer acquisition strategies. I feel like they both have the opportunity to 100x over the next 5 years... but I've been wrong so many times I wouldn't listen to me.
I'll start by saying I sort of agree with you on Chamath. That being said: No offense to that Twitter thread, but Gross/Net IRR is a common metric at VCs when you're chatting with your LPs. With Chamath running a few SPACs he's considering the world to be his LPs. I work with/at VCs and in early-stage companies, so I'm very comfortable with this space. Chamath operates like most of the VCs/founders I work with: They are selling 100% of the time, and the numbers are all ideal/fabricated. It's good to keep an eye out for that type of person for sure if you're used to straight shooters or non-growth companies.
That all being said I'm not a SPAC gambler. I specifically wanted to buy SOFI. SOFI & IPOE already merged (or are in the process of merging this week), so the remaining risk is unaudited financials because SPACs are definitely not well regulated right now.
Despite me DCAing into IPOE over the past few months I'm still down ~20%, so slap that subscribe button if you want more of my stock tips!
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anyone (still?) long the meme stocks?
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why no talk of loss porn?
I'll go first, I sold AAPL in late 2016.
How about you?
Is there a character limit per post on this board?
My biggest donk has been WKHS or COIN. Hoping COIN bounces back.
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Is there a character limit per post on this board?
My biggest donk has been WKHS or COIN. Hoping COIN bounces back.
Uhhhhh thanks /r/WallStreeBets, I guess?
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Uhhhhh thanks /r/WallStreeBets, I guess?
lol perfect timing
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lol perfect timing
The real problem I have now is I have no idea where to cut bait and dump.
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The real problem I have now is I have no idea where to cut bait and dump.
I know very little about the gas vehicle or the EV space, but that doesn't preclude me from having an opinion: Ford launching the F-150 Lightning seems to be a sign that having a decent EV platform is no longer a huge differentiator.
Edit: This is coming from a guy that has considered Tesla a bad bet for years, so ymmv. Pun intended.
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I know very little about the gas vehicle or the EV space, but that doesn't preclude me from having an opinion: Ford launching the F-150 Lightning seems to be a sign that having a decent EV platform is no longer a huge differentiator.
Edit: This is coming from a guy that has considered Tesla a bad bet for years, so ymmv. Pun intended.
My original investment was when it seemed to have been a forgone conclusion that WKHS would be the company developing and manufacturing the USPS EV fleet of delivery vehicles. Then, seemingly, without any reason given the contract was awarded to Oshkosh Defense. There is a lawsuit pending.
I have chalked the entire investment up as a major L. It was neat to see it creep up a little today, but I should have just cut bait this morning. Guess I'll sit on it long term and hope some of the money comes back.
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Is there a character limit per post on this board?
My biggest donk has been WKHS or COIN. Hoping COIN bounces back.
I don't know your time frame, but I would think the COIN timeframe is years, if not a decade at least. Hardly a donk at this point, unless you were looking for a quick pop to dump out of it.
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I don't know your time frame, but I would think the COIN timeframe is years, if not a decade at least. Hardly a donk at this point, unless you were looking for a quick pop to dump out of it.
Nah, just expected a bit more of a moonshot at the time. The hold is very much long term.
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I don't know your time frame, but I would think the COIN timeframe is years, if not a decade at least. Hardly a donk at this point, unless you were looking for a quick pop to dump out of it.
My worry with COIN would be both competition stealing even more share (Gemini, Binance, etc...) and as a result, they may have to shave their aggressive fees
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Here is a little more speculative investment for those who like riskier bets. Today was a big down day for the companies in the gene-editing sector so I took the opportunity this morning to create a mini-portfolio that consisted of:
Full positions: BEAM, CRSP, NTLA, DTIL
Half positions: EDIT, CLLS, SGMO
I fully expect a shakeout in the industry and some of these companies, perhaps even a majority, will either go out of business or get absorbed by bigger players at lower prices that they are at today. However, I believe one or two will turn into 10 to 20 baggers over the next 10 years. My overall expectation/projection/hope is for a 4x-6x increase on the total value of the portfolio.
We shall see.
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Here is a little more speculative investment for those who like riskier bets. Today was a big down day for the companies in the gene-editing sector so I took the opportunity this morning to create a mini-portfolio that consisted of:
Full positions: BEAM, CRSP, NTLA, DTIL
Half positions: EDIT, CLLS, SGMO
I fully expect a shakeout in the industry and some of these companies, perhaps even a majority, will either go out of business or get absorbed by bigger players at lower prices that they are at today. However, I believe one or two will turn into 10 to 20 baggers over the next 10 years. My overall expectation/projection/hope is for a 4x-6x increase on the total value of the portfolio.
We shall see.
Good luck!
Do you own Cathie Wood’s ARKG?
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Here is a little more speculative investment for those who like riskier bets. Today was a big down day for the companies in the gene-editing sector so I took the opportunity this morning to create a mini-portfolio that consisted of:
Full positions: BEAM, CRSP, NTLA, DTIL
Half positions: EDIT, CLLS, SGMO
I fully expect a shakeout in the industry and some of these companies, perhaps even a majority, will either go out of business or get absorbed by bigger players at lower prices that they are at today. However, I believe one or two will turn into 10 to 20 baggers over the next 10 years. My overall expectation/projection/hope is for a 4x-6x increase on the total value of the portfolio.
We shall see.
REALLY like CRSP and EDIT. I own chunks of both and add a bit on pullbacks.
Agree on the sector. Reminds me of what my Dad has talked about the semiconductor sector in the late 80s/early 90s. He picked 4-5 best of breed that he knew from working with. 2 went bankrupt, 1 doubled, the other 2 paid for the down payment on the house I grew up in. It’s that sort of transformational space
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Good luck!
Do you own Cathie Wood’s ARKG?
I do not own it. Two reasons:
--I looked at it, but the selections in that fund span a broader range within genomics whereas I wanted to concentrate more specifically in the gene editing space.
--I find her investing style to be a little too momentum and hot-name oriented for me. Its like Heisy is one of her analysts.
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I do not own it. Two reasons:
--I looked at it, but the selections in that fund span a broader range within genomics whereas I wanted to concentrate more specifically in the gene editing space.
--I find her investing style to be a little too momentum and hot-name oriented for me. Its like Heisy is one of her analysts.
I agree. Cathie's a brilliant salesperson but I’ve decided I don’t like the way she runs her portfolios.
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--I find her investing style to be a little too momentum and hot-name oriented for me. Its like Heisy is one of her analysts.
I agree. Cathie's a brilliant salesperson but I’ve decided I don’t like the way she runs her portfolios.
Bingo. I have a FinTwit Twitter list thats largely just amusement but is a decent sentiment tracker. It feels like whatever names the daytraders, weekly option swingers, and WSB non-meme factions are on...have heavy ARK weight. I'm honestly not convinced she's any good at fund management. She feels like the people who made a killing in Crypto runs cause they just push all their chips into momentum names and ride a euphoric bull market. But we can see when she takes a beating, while the aforementioned crew just gets quiet as they get slaughtered.
Also, her close association with Bill Hwang is a major red flag. He was the same game, massive leverage hot hand let it ride until it didnt work.
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REALLY like CRSP and EDIT. I own chunks of both and add a bit on pullbacks.
Agree on the sector. Reminds me of what my Dad has talked about the semiconductor sector in the late 80s/early 90s. He picked 4-5 best of breed that he knew from working with. 2 went bankrupt, 1 doubled, the other 2 paid for the down payment on the house I grew up in. It’s that sort of transformational space
Even bigger bloodbath today. I don't see any specific news driving this, but may be overlooking it. I do see that a Director unloaded a big chunk (almost $15M) of NTLA, but insider sales are seldom an indicator of anything other than someone wants some cash.
Added to the worst hit today, BEAM and NTLA.
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Credit Suisse is among many analytical firms that is forecasting "a period of choppy sideways trade," given the volatility associated with the Fed debate. But CS is also a big believer in the Fed's "transitory" theme, expecting price pressures to moderate in the coming quarters. "Once that happens, concerns about yields and inflation will likely calm down," CS said.
But not everyone is on board with Credit Suisse's thesis. "The headwinds are building for the equity market," Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi declared, expecting a more hawkish Fed to spark a 10% to 20% pullback. 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry has also recently warned of the "mother of all crashes," with "MainStreet losses approaching the size of countries," given the FOMO for unsustainable asset prices, meme stocks and crypto. Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, is on that train as well. "Biggest bubble in world history getting bigger," he tweeted on June 19. "Biggest crash in world history coming."
+++
So if some folks here agree with Kiyosaki, Zandi, etc, what are you gonna do about it?
If I believed strongly in it, I'd sell everything and go to all cash. Inflation would eat at the cash, but 5% or even 10% inflation is a hell of a lot better than "the biggest crash in world history" taking away 50% of my stock-market wealth.
Of course, many "experts" were predicting the same in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018. One of these days, they'll be right, or at least partially right. But if one bought in back in 2014, one would have forfeited significant gains in arguably the greatest bull market ever.
Fun times to be an investor!
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Here is a little more speculative investment for those who like riskier bets. Today was a big down day for the companies in the gene-editing sector so I took the opportunity this morning to create a mini-portfolio that consisted of:
Full positions: BEAM, CRSP, NTLA, DTIL
Half positions: EDIT, CLLS, SGMO
I fully expect a shakeout in the industry and some of these companies, perhaps even a majority, will either go out of business or get absorbed by bigger players at lower prices that they are at today. However, I believe one or two will turn into 10 to 20 baggers over the next 10 years. My overall expectation/projection/hope is for a 4x-6x increase on the total value of the portfolio.
We shall see.
Not too shabby of a day
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Not too shabby of a day
Indeed. Rising tide (NTLA) lifting all boats.
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A couple of snippets from Yahoo Finance this morning:
"Data from FactSet published last Friday showed a record 66 of companies in the S&P 500 have offered guidance above Street estimates for Q2. The prior record of 59 came ahead of Q1 earnings. And, as we covered several times in the Morning Brief, Wall Street just could not keep pace during the first three months of 2021.
"This fits into our longstanding thesis that the Street’s aggregate $44.79/share for Q2 2021 S&P 500 earnings remains too low," Colas added. "Remember that Q1 2021 came in at $49/share. Why would Q2 be any less than that, given incremental economic growth?" the analyst asked.
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Indeed. Rising tide (NTLA) lifting all boats.
I'm notoriously bad at investing, but I can't see NTLA being worth its current valuation. Where CRISPR is going to be most useful is in rare diseases like ATTR. I don't see how it can be that profitable. Not enough people with the illness. The majority being elderly and likely on government healthcare. I can't see them being able to price these treatments high enough to justify valuations.
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I'm notoriously bad at investing, but I can't see NTLA being worth its current valuation. Where CRISPR is going to be most useful is in rare diseases like ATTR. I don't see how it can be that profitable. Not enough people with the illness. The majority being elderly and likely on government healthcare. I can't see them being able to price these treatments high enough to justify valuations.
Valuations right now are nothing more than wild guesses based on promise, given all these companies are quite a ways from bringing therapies to market at all much less profitably. NTLA just provided proof-of-concept of in vivo success and the market decided that was worth a 50% bump in share price.
There are some crazy expensive specialty drugs on the market, though a better comparison might be GILD when they developed the breakthrough cure for Hep C. Pricing started at $120K/person, and governments negotiated that down to $64K. I think the price dropped further once they got the regimen down to 8 weeks, but still public entities were paying a steep price.
I don't profess to be an expert on the technology or the economics for specific diseases, but in aggregate the market thinks there is something pretty big here.
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I'm notoriously bad at investing, but I can't see NTLA being worth its current valuation. Where CRISPR is going to be most useful is in rare diseases like ATTR. I don't see how it can be that profitable. Not enough people with the illness. The majority being elderly and likely on government healthcare. I can't see them being able to price these treatments high enough to justify valuations.
Article from Motley Fool that brings up the issue that you highlighted, namely can this actually be profitable and if so when? No doubt that valuations will eventually follow earnings, but that might be a relatively long way in the future. NTLA bouncing again today.
In the meantime, as I said in the initial post, I fully expect a good portion of these companies to fail due to inferior technology, execution, or just targeting unprofitable sectors. I don't know which those will be so I spread my bets amongst the companies that seemed best situated to my inexpert eye.
Can Intellia Therapeutics Turn Exciting Trial Results into Profits?
New proof-of-concept results are a big deal for the medical community, but what about for your portfolio?
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/30/can-intellia-turn-landmark-data-into-product-sales/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
"The compelling trial results that sent Intellia's stock price soaring 50% on the first trading day following the big announcement were measured just 28 days after patients were treated. This is a terrific beginning, but it's going to be a long time before we know if NTLA-2001 can generate enough sales to offset Intellia's investment. This trial's primary analysis doesn't occur until two years after treatment of the last patient.
Regeneron has agreed to pay for roughly half of NTLA-2001's development expenses, but Intellia still burned through $149 million over the past year. Worldwide, there are only about 50,000 people living with hereditary amyloidosis and only a fraction of this population is diagnosed with ATTR-PN. As a gene therapy to be administered just once, Intellia needs to put a seven-figure price tag on NTLA-2001 and reach a significant portion of its addressable patient population just to break even.
With competition from Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' (NASDAQ:ALNY) Onpattro for a limited population of ATTR-PN patients, NTLA-2001 sales probably won't bring Intellia to profitability. Fortunately, Regeneron's collaboration deal with Intellia includes up to 15 targets, and the transthyretin gene is just the first.
We'll probably hear about Intellia beginning more than one study with new on-the-fly gene-editing candidates before the end of the year, which will accelerate operating expenses. It could be years before Intellia can make ends meet, but its clinical-stage pipeline is about to swell to several times its current size."
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Good luck!
Do you own Cathie Wood’s ARKG?
Why I am glad I didn't go the ARK route. From Seeking Alpha:
Rally for gene editing stocks continues into third day, boosted by Intellia
Biotech companies that are focused on the gene editing space for treatments are continuing higher for the third straight day.
* Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +15.7%), Editas Medicine (EDIT +16.6%), and Verve Therapeutics (VERV +21.7%) are up double-digit percentages.
* CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +8.1%), bluebird bio (BLUE +6.1%), and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +4.6%) are up single-digit percentages.
* The ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF (ARKG +0.2%) is barely higher.
* The best performing gene editing stock so far today is Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +22.4%). The stock has had massive gains this week following a significant development in one of its CRISPR candidates.
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Here's a shock ...
Steven Mnuchin raises $2.5 billion for his new private equity firm. The former Treasury secretary in the Trump administration is getting some of the money from sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, where he traveled extensively while in government.
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No civilians are going to be in that PE firm or fund. So maybe save that crap for one of the political free for all threads and not here?
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No civilians are going to be in that PE firm or fund. So maybe save that crap for one of the political free for all threads and not here?
As you know, private equity firms do get involved in publicly traded companies. There are hostile takeovers, attempts to take over BoDs, attempts to force M&A activity, etc. So this obvious conflict-of-interest situation could affect "civilian" investors.
And nobody had posted here since June, so it's not as if this I was changing the subject at hand or anything.
But I appreciate your willingness to play Scoop Cop, Wags, and will be looking for the same from you in other threads!
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As you know, private equity firms do get involved in publicly traded companies. There are hostile takeovers, attempts to take over BoDs, attempts to force M&A activity, etc. So this obvious conflict-of-interest situation could affect "civilian" investors.
And nobody had posted here since June, so it's not as if this I was changing the subject at hand or anything.
But I appreciate your willingness to play Scoop Cop, Wags, and will be looking for the same from you in other threads!
Its just a clear political tangent that has all the potential to rile people up into the same nonsesne in other threads.
And I'm not Scoop Cop, I'm just sick of 80% of threads in the Superbar/COVID board being hijacked with political crap throwing. This is hardly the first time Ive said it. It ruins our once great democratic Scoop republic.
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Back to talk of taxing unrealized capital gains. Yellen quoted today as saying "unrealized capital gains are income".
This is just sheer lunacy. I know they are trying to find ways to tax the ultra rich, but this is just a disaster fundamentally that will harm a lot of people. I get the potential idea of restrictions against borrowing against stock positions or the like, but otherwise these proposals are unenforceable messes.
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Back to talk of taxing unrealized capital gains. Yellen quoted today as saying "unrealized capital gains are income".
This is just sheer lunacy. I know they are trying to find ways to tax the ultra rich, but this is just a disaster fundamentally that will harm a lot of people. I get the potential idea of restrictions against borrowing against stock positions or the like, but otherwise these proposals are unenforceable messes.
I agree. It would also be a nightmare having to recalibrate unrealized gains and losses each year and make tax planning impossible. Just close the carried interest loophole already.
In other news, rough day for Editas. Good initial clinical data but not as good, I suspect, as the market was hoping. I only took a half position in EDIT, but was really surprised how well it was performing prior to this relative to the basket I constructed.
I saw that Cathie Woods had sold off a portion of her EDIT prior to the news but increased her positions in CRSP and BEAM. That's consistent with my mini-portfolio where I have a half position in EDIT, full position in CRSP, and a position-and-a-half in BEAM. Been disappointed with CRSP's relative performance so I've nibbled on some extra shares in other accounts separate from the portfolio I am tracking.
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I agree. It would also be a nightmare having to recalibrate unrealized gains and losses each year and make tax planning impossible. Just close the carried interest loophole already.
In other news, rough day for Editas. Good initial clinical data but not as good, I suspect, as the market was hoping. I only took a half position in EDIT, but was really surprised how well it was performing prior to this relative to the basket I constructed.
I saw that Cathie Woods had sold off a portion of her EDIT prior to the news but increased her positions in CRSP and BEAM. That's consistent with my mini-portfolio where I have a half position in EDIT, full position in CRSP, and a position-and-a-half in BEAM. Been disappointed with CRSP's relative performance so I've nibbled on some extra shares in other accounts separate from the portfolio I am tracking.
Cathie Woods churns her portfolios so aggressively, I have trouble figuring out what she's trying to do.
As for taxing unrealized capital gains, isn't this latest proposal only upon death or have I missed something else? I agree that what I've seen on this is pretty crazy.
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Cathie Woods churns her portfolios so aggressively, I have trouble figuring out what she's trying to do.
As for taxing unrealized capital gains, isn't this latest proposal only upon death or have I missed something else? I agree that what I've seen on this is pretty crazy.
Oh is the proposal just to do away with step up value at death? Much as that will eventually pain me (well, not really 'cause I'll be dead and all), it makes logical sense.
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The last 40 years have seen the worst wealth redistribution in the history of this country.
Reform is needed.
Taxing capital in some significant way is needed.
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Oh is the proposal just to do away with step up value at death? Much as that will eventually pain me (well, not really 'cause I'll be dead and all), it makes logical sense.
That's the main thing, but Oregon Dem Ron Wyden (who is chair of the Senate Finance Committee) also has proposed that billionaires (and only billionaires) would have their annual gains in wealth treated as income. In other words, a person's whose net wealth rose from $10 billion to $12 billion would have $2 billion of taxable income even if he didn't sell anything.
I understand the idea of it. It would keep the 0.1% from paying the relatively small percentage they do in taxes. But administration could be ridiculously difficult, and the great tax people that rich folks hire surely would find ways around this tax, too.
Biden has kind of given it support, but only kind of, saying: “Look, I support a lot of these proposals. We don’t need all of the proposals I support to pay for this" multi-trillion dollar spending bill he's trying to get passed.
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That's the main thing, but Oregon Dem Ron Wyden (who is chair of the Senate Finance Committee) also has proposed that billionaires (and only billionaires) would have their annual gains in wealth treated as income. In other words, a person's whose net wealth rose from $10 billion to $12 billion would have $2 billion of taxable income even if he didn't sell anything.
I understand the idea of it. It would keep the 0.1% from paying the relatively small percentage they do in taxes. But administration could be ridiculously difficult, and the great tax people that rich folks hire surely would find ways around this tax, too.
Biden has kind of given it support, but only kind of, saying: “Look, I support a lot of these proposals. We don’t need all of the proposals I support to pay for this" multi-trillion dollar spending bill he's trying to get passed.
So are you saying pay tax on the capital gains even if the billionaire doesn't sell any stock? I'm trying to look at this on a smaller scale (where I assume most of us relate) and will share one personal example:
I recall having a discussion about APPL and that some Scooper told people to sell it a while back and admitted he made a mistake. I because of mostly dumb luck bought a decent chunk a few years ago and it's gone up about 270%. Is your contention that I should pay 20% or if Biden raises it 28% capital gains taxes plus dividends, even if I don't sell the stock? What happens when I do decide to sell it? I pay another 28%? Maybe I'm confused but how exactly would this work? Wouldn't it also force billionaires to have more of their portfolio in. cash?
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So are you saying pay tax on the capital gains even if the billionaire doesn't sell any stock? I'm trying to look at this on a smaller scale (where I assume most of us relate) and will share one personal example:
I recall having a discussion about APPL and that some Scooper told people to sell it a while back and admitted he made a mistake. I because of mostly dumb luck bought a decent chunk a few years ago and it's gone up about 270%. Is your contention that I should pay 20% or if Biden raises it 28% capital gains taxes plus dividends, even if I don't sell the stock? What happens when I do decide to sell it? I pay another 28%? Maybe I'm confused but how exactly would this work? Wouldn't it also force billionaires to have more of their portfolio in. cash?
I don't say any of this. It's not my proposal, and I doubt it will become law.
As for what I understand about your questions ...
1. I assume you're not a billionaire; if not, it wouldn't apply to you one iota.
B. If you were a billionaire, I wouldn't feel very sorry for you.
3. As I said, I doubt this proposal sees the light of day.
D. I don't have answers for most of the questions that you're all stoked about.
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Oh is the proposal just to do away with step up value at death? Much as that will eventually pain me (well, not really 'cause I'll be dead and all), it makes logical sense.
There is a lot of discussion about year to year capital gains too, not just step away/estate valuation.
That's the main thing, but Oregon Dem Ron Wyden (who is chair of the Senate Finance Committee) also has proposed that billionaires (and only billionaires) would have their annual gains in wealth treated as income. In other words, a person's whose net wealth rose from $10 billion to $12 billion would have $2 billion of taxable income even if he didn't sell anything.
I just have a fundamental issue with taxing of paper gains (or losses) and tying things to "wealth" instead of income doesnt sit well with me. It opens a lot of compartments in Pandora's Box.
Say Joe Billionaire is worth $1.5B, largely in his own company's stock. They have a great year, bring out new profits, that stock is worth $3B next year. So he owes taxes on these unrealized gains of $1.5B, ok. Well there is a recession, global logistic issues, civil war where his manufacturing exists, and the value of his shares plummet to $500MM. Will he get tax credits for that loss? Of course not. People will naturally say "well he's still rich!" but thats not the point and not how legislation should be drafted.
My main issue is there are COUNTLESS loopholes that can be closed or amended. But thats hard work and takes political maneuvering, heavy lifting, and concessions...so instead go for big splashy new taxes that look great as a headline and just make everything more convoluted and create many more billable hours for tax attorneys and accountants.
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Or we could do away with the notion of qualified dividends with their lower tax rate, and just tax dividends as regular income. I get the problem with taxing unrealized gains, but if the income off those stock holdings were taxed normally, I think there would be more equity in the system.
Because right now, using Wags' example above, Joe Billionaire isn't paying himself much of a salary from his company, he's just paying himself qualified dividend income at the lower tax rate.
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There is a lot of discussion about year to year capital gains too, not just step away/estate valuation.
I just have a fundamental issue with taxing of paper gains (or losses) and tying things to "wealth" instead of income doesnt sit well with me. It opens a lot of compartments in Pandora's Box.
Say Joe Billionaire is worth $1.5B, largely in his own company's stock. They have a great year, bring out new profits, that stock is worth $3B next year. So he owes taxes on these unrealized gains of $1.5B, ok. Well there is a recession, global logistic issues, civil war where his manufacturing exists, and the value of his shares plummet to $500MM. Will he get tax credits for that loss? Of course not. People will naturally say "well he's still rich!" but thats not the point and not how legislation should be drafted.
My main issue is there are COUNTLESS loopholes that can be closed or amended. But thats hard work and takes political maneuvering, heavy lifting, and concessions...so instead go for big splashy new taxes that look great as a headline and just make everything more convoluted and create many more billable hours for tax attorneys and accountants.
One of the (many) sticking points that has been mentioned is just what you talk about here. You're going to "penalize" a rich person for a good year but then not offer credits for a bad year? As I said, the administration of all of this would be crazy, and good tax people will still find loopholes. Seems like a loser to me. It's a wet dream for some on the far left, and I really doubt it happens.
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Or we could do away with the notion of qualified dividends with their lower tax rate, and just tax dividends as regular income. I get the problem with taxing unrealized gains, but if the income off those stock holdings were taxed normally, I think there would be more equity in the system.
Because right now, using Wags' example above, Joe Billionaire isn't paying himself much of a salary from his company, he's just paying himself qualified dividend income at the lower tax rate.
How exactly would they tax it and what would happen with unrealized losses per year? Would they tax the current 20% rate per year? Another thing to consider is if billionaires are taxed in this fashion wouldn't there be a lower incentive for them to have their money in the market? Because the fact of the matter is 50% of the country has money in the stock market. A lot of the bull market has been a result of big-tech and a handful of additional stocks which has an enormous impact on peasants like us.
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I don't say any of this. It's not my proposal, and I doubt it will become law.
As for what I understand about your questions ...
1. I assume you're not a billionaire; if not, it wouldn't apply to you one iota.
B. If you were a billionaire, I wouldn't feel very sorry for you.
3. As I said, I doubt this proposal sees the light of day.
D. I don't have answers for most of the questions that you're all stoked about.
Billionaires aren't superheroes and have as many whackos as any group of people.
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One way to get rid of perpetual deferral of income: All loans with Stock or investment accounts as pledged collateral are taxed as regular income.
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How exactly would they tax it and what would happen with unrealized losses per year? Would they tax the current 20% rate per year? Another thing to consider is if billionaires are taxed in this fashion wouldn't there be a lower incentive for them to have their money in the market? Because the fact of the matter is 50% of the country has money in the stock market. A lot of the bull market has been a result of big-tech and a handful of additional stocks which has an enormous impact on peasants like us.
I feel like you are not responding to my post because I said "I get the problem with taxing unrealized gains." I am talking about taxing 1099-DIV income as ordinary income and not as capital gains income.
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Compensation and building wealth for the super wealthy has changed dramatically from the early 20th century. Our tax structure needs to change as well.
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Billionaires aren't superheroes and have as many whackos as any group of people.
Did anybody claim that billionaires were superheroes or that there aren’t whacko billionaires? Who are you arguing with here, Muggs?
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Did anybody claim that billionaires were superheroes or that there aren’t whacko billionaires? Who are you arguing with here, Muggs?
I'm not arguing. I just thought it should be noted in parallel with your billionaire points.
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Or we could do away with the notion of qualified dividends with their lower tax rate, and just tax dividends as regular income. I get the problem with taxing unrealized gains, but if the income off those stock holdings were taxed normally, I think there would be more equity in the system.
Because right now, using Wags' example above, Joe Billionaire isn't paying himself much of a salary from his company, he's just paying himself qualified dividend income at the lower tax rate.
Yup.
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Billionaires aren't superheroes and have as many whackos as any group of people.
They're usually the opposite of superheroes. ;D
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They're usually the opposite of superheroes. ;D
Ha! I'm pretty much with you here. There's this instantaneous asshead vibe that I get from a lot of them. That doesn't mean there aren't many that are cool and humble, but in general I don't particularly envy them or their god complexes. :)
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Or we could do away with the notion of qualified dividends with their lower tax rate, and just tax dividends as regular income. I get the problem with taxing unrealized gains, but if the income off those stock holdings were taxed normally, I think there would be more equity in the system.
Because right now, using Wags' example above, Joe Billionaire isn't paying himself much of a salary from his company, he's just paying himself qualified dividend income at the lower tax rate.
I missed this earlier, but wanted to also point out that Joe Billionaire is also making even more by taking out loans against his ginormous assets and putting that loan money to use in some way or another to personally profit even further. Never-ending money supply for these folks.
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I missed this earlier, but wanted to also point out that Joe Billionaire is also making even more by taking out loans against his ginormous assets and putting that loan money to use in some way or another to personally profit even further. Never-ending money supply for these folks.
Except that isn't some special billionaire tool. Joe Schmoe does it all the time with second mortgages, cars as collateral for loans, etc... Plenty of small businesses have been started and funded doing just that. The last major financial crisis had a critical component of people over-leveraging their assets. And sometimes millionaires and billionaires lose huge portions of their wealth by leveraging like that.
As I said, thought I'm pretty financially conservative, I have no issue with changing some of the borrowing rules against equity holdings. I also dont have much of an issue with changing how dividend income is taxed. But the idea of "this is ways that billionaires make money that normally people don't, lets attack that" rings hollow, when "normal" people have the ability and potentially the means, they just don't for whatever reason.
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Except that isn't some special billionaire tool. Joe Schmoe does it all the time with second mortgages, cars as collateral for loans, etc... Plenty of small businesses have been started and funded doing just that. The last major financial crisis had a critical component of people over-leveraging their assets. And sometimes millionaires and billionaires lose huge portions of their wealth by leveraging like that.
As I said, thought I'm pretty financially conservative, I have no issue with changing some of the borrowing rules against equity holdings. I also dont have much of an issue with changing how dividend income is taxed. But the idea of "this is ways that billionaires make money that normally people don't, lets attack that" rings hollow, when "normal" people have the ability and potentially the means, they just don't for whatever reason.
Joe Schmoe has access to the same thing, yes. But Joe Schmoe doesn't have the ability to lose 1 mil like it's nothing.
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Joe Schmoe has access to the same thing, yes. But Joe Schmoe doesn't have the ability to lose 1 mil like it's nothing.
I'm not sure what your point is? Everyone has different risk abilities based on various factors. I know multi-millionaires who have a coronary over their kids not paying off their credit card each month and potentially paying interest on like $1000 in balance. I know a friend from college whose dad was over $500K in various leveraged investment debt and only owned 2 small retail stores as his base.
Complaining that the wealthy can afford to take risks, in absolute dollar terms, that the less wealthy can't isn't any sort of compelling argument for changing the system. Because they can lose $1MM from their $1B net worth like someone loses $500 from their $500K net worth proportionally, doing the same things. Everyone looks at the ultra wealthy in contrast to the working poor, but always seem to overlook the countless middle class and upper middle class who have access to plenty of these "rich people" tricks but just don't use them.
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Wags, I don't think most in America's middle class are as financially free to use those "tricks" as perhaps you do.
Could they use those tricks legally? Sure. Could some manage it based on their net worth, income, etc? Maybe some. But when you and your wife both work and bring in $80K, when you have less than $10K in the bank, when you have a kid getting ready to go to college, when you've already done a cash-out refi to pay for the new roof, when you're literally living paycheck to paycheck -- most of which describes LOTS (perhaps the majority of) middle-class families in the United States -- I don't think using those tricks is very realistic. Even if they could afford to use a trick or two, psychologically, it's the last thing they're thinking of.
Much of the above applies to upper-middle-class Americans, too, depending upon how one defines that category.
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Wags, I don't think most in America's middle class are as financially free to use those "tricks" as perhaps you do.
Could they use those tricks legally? Sure. Could some manage it based on their net worth, income, etc? Maybe some. But when you and your wife both work and bring in $80K, when you have less than $10K in the bank, when you have a kid getting ready to go to college, when you've already done a cash-out refi to pay for the new roof, when you're literally living paycheck to paycheck -- most of which describes LOTS (perhaps the majority of) middle-class families in the United States -- I don't think using those tricks is very realistic. Even if they could afford to use a trick or two, psychologically, it's the last thing they're thinking of.
Much of the above applies to upper-middle-class Americans, too, depending upon how one defines that category.
But again, the situation you described is not justification for changing the system, IMO. Those people you described can't afford a luxury SUV. Or a $60K sedan. So should we outlaw car financing for "expensive" cars over a certain price?
Things that are fundamentally unfair or broken I can be fine with changing, but in terms of "well people with lots of money can do this, others cant" that rings hollow for me. Cause sure, not in that example you presented (won't even get into living paycheck to paycheck on $160K income), but there are plenty of families bringing in $200K a year that could, but don't. And they are hardly the same as a billionaire.
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But again, the situation you described is not justification for changing the system, IMO. Those people you described can't afford a luxury SUV. Or a $60K sedan. So should we outlaw car financing for "expensive" cars over a certain price?
Things that are fundamentally unfair or broken I can be fine with changing, but in terms of "well people with lots of money can do this, others cant" that rings hollow for me. Cause sure, not in that example you presented (won't even get into living paycheck to paycheck on $160K income), but there are plenty of families bringing in $200K a year that could, but don't. And they are hardly the same as a billionaire.
I was talking about $80K total. Again, they might have "access" to those tricks you talk about, but they simply can't use them.
Otherwise, I don't disagree with much of what you say. And I think we both can agree that billionaires and hundred-millionaires are easy targets for politicians the same way "evil drug companies" are.
This truly is an issue I see both sides of. And, as I said, while I'm not advocating for this tax, I wouldn't shed many tears if it happens.
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I don't think the unrealized cap gains tax makes any sense unless I'm missing something. Because it impacts way more than the super wealthy. It could also lead the super wealthy to move their companies or be out of the market.
Suppose you're not particularly wealthy and bought a house 25 yrs ago for 100K. You are still the present owner and today it's worth 1 mill. Would you have to pay the unrealized capital gains taxes on the home while you are still living in it? Or if you pass it onto family would they have to pay annual ucg taxes? The average person could not afford to pay these taxes very long.
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I don't think the unrealized cap gains tax makes any sense unless I'm missing something. Because it impacts way more than the super wealthy. It could also lead the super wealthy to move their companies or be out of the market.
Suppose you're not particularly wealthy and bought a house 25 yrs ago for 100K. You are still the present owner and today it's worth 1 mill. Would you have to pay the unrealized capital gains taxes on the home while you are still living in it? Or if you pass it onto family would they have to pay annual ucg taxes? The average person could not afford to pay these taxes very long.
As I read what few details have been made available in the proposed legislation, it would not affect this hypothetical homeowner of yours.
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I don't think the unrealized cap gains tax makes any sense unless I'm missing something. Because it impacts way more than the super wealthy. It could also lead the super wealthy to move their companies or be out of the market.
Suppose you're not particularly wealthy and bought a house 25 yrs ago for 100K. You are still the present owner and today it's worth 1 mill. Would you have to pay the unrealized capital gains taxes on the home while you are still living in it? Or if you pass it onto family would they have to pay annual ucg taxes? The average person could not afford to pay these taxes very long.
I have admittedly not kept up with this, but I believe the proposal was only on investments (not real estate) and only kicks in at very high income levels, so your concern for the “average person” might be misplaced.
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Merck (MRK) up big today on news of its COVID-19 drug success. Up 10% as I write this.
I had bought some MRK over the last few months as a value/income play, so this is a very nice surprise. As always, wish I had bought more!
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Well, maybe I'm mistaken. But wouldn't it disincentive people to have their money in the market? Unless you are reimbursed on unrealized capital losses or don't pay long term cap gains when you sell? Wouldn't it force billionaires to have way more of their net worth in cash to pay these taxes?
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Well, maybe I'm mistaken. But wouldn't it disincentive people to have their money in the market? Unless you are reimbursed on unrealized capital losses or don't pay long term cap gains when you sell? Wouldn't it force billionaires to have way more of their net worth in cash to pay these taxes?
People with money invest in the market. It is the best place to get rich/richer.
They own a zillion other things, too.
I think you're worrying way too much about this, Muggs.
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Well, maybe I'm mistaken. But wouldn't it disincentive people to have their money in the market? Unless you are reimbursed on unrealized capital losses or don't pay long term cap gains when you sell? Wouldn't it force billionaires to have way more of their net worth in cash to pay these taxes?
Taxing unrealized gains on a yearly basis is not going to happen, just something being proposed by some on the far left but no republican or even moderate dems will support that.
Even if they did start taxing unrealized gains, if interest rates remain where they are now, why would anyone leave their money in cash? To earn zero and lose to inflation? Unless interest rates go up substantially, people with means will continue to invest in assets that can appreciate over time and outpace inflation. If they have gains and are being taxed, they would likely sell those assets to raise the cash to pay the tax. Either way if they made 10% and lose half to taxes, doesn't a net 5% still beat zero?
From my understanding, here are some of the proposals the Biden administraion has put out there:
1) Raising the top marginal rate back to 39.6 from the current 37 percent. This is happening regardless in 2025 as that is when the Trump tax cuts are expiring, which increases everyone's marginal tax rates, not just those above $400K. Under this proposal the higher marginal rates would apply to incomes over 452,700 for single filers, 481,000 for head of household and 509,300 for joint filers. Those numbers would then be indexed for inflation in future years.
2) Tax long-term capital gains as ordinary income for people with an AGI above 1 million, resulting in a top marginal rate of 43.4 when including the 3.8 percent Net Investment Income Tax.
3) Tax unrealized capital gains at death for unrealized gains over 1 million(2 million for joint filers)
4) Keep the capital gains exclusion of $250K/$500K for primary residence.
5) Limit like kind 1031 exchanges above $500K in capital gains
We'll see where they finally settle out, one thing is for sure tax rates will be higher in the future.
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Taxing unrealized gains on a yearly basis is not going to happen, just something being proposed by some on the far left but no republican or even moderate dems will support that.
Even if they did start taxing unrealized gains, if interest rates remain where they are now, why would anyone leave their money in cash? To earn zero and lose to inflation? Unless interest rates go up substantially, people with means will continue to invest in assets that can appreciate over time and outpace inflation. If they have gains and are being taxed, they would likely sell those assets to raise the cash to pay the tax. Either way if they made 10% and lose half to taxes, doesn't a net 5% still beat zero?
From my understanding, here are some of the proposals the Biden administraion has put out there:
1) Raising the top marginal rate back to 39.6 from the current 37 percent. This is happening regardless in 2025 as that is when the Trump tax cuts are expiring, which increases everyone's marginal tax rates, not just those above $400K. Under this proposal the higher marginal rates would apply to incomes over 452,700 for single filers, 481,000 for head of household and 509,300 for joint filers. Those numbers would then be indexed for inflation in future years.
2) Tax long-term capital gains as ordinary income for people with an AGI above 1 million, resulting in a top marginal rate of 43.4 when including the 3.8 percent Net Investment Income Tax.
3) Tax unrealized capital gains at death for unrealized gains over 1 million(2 million for joint filers)
4) Keep the capital gains exclusion of $250K/$500K for primary residence.
5) Limit like kind 1031 exchanges above $500K in capital gains
We'll see where they finally settle out, one thing is for sure tax rates will be higher in the future.
Good info, appreciated.
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Taxing unrealized gains on a yearly basis is not going to happen, just something being proposed by some on the far left but no republican or even moderate dems will support that.
Even if they did start taxing unrealized gains, if interest rates remain where they are now, why would anyone leave their money in cash? To earn zero and lose to inflation? Unless interest rates go up substantially, people with means will continue to invest in assets that can appreciate over time and outpace inflation. If they have gains and are being taxed, they would likely sell those assets to raise the cash to pay the tax. Either way if they made 10% and lose half to taxes, doesn't a net 5% still beat zero?
From my understanding, here are some of the proposals the Biden administraion has put out there:
1) Raising the top marginal rate back to 39.6 from the current 37 percent. This is happening regardless in 2025 as that is when the Trump tax cuts are expiring, which increases everyone's marginal tax rates, not just those above $400K. Under this proposal the higher marginal rates would apply to incomes over 452,700 for single filers, 481,000 for head of household and 509,300 for joint filers. Those numbers would then be indexed for inflation in future years.
2) Tax long-term capital gains as ordinary income for people with an AGI above 1 million, resulting in a top marginal rate of 43.4 when including the 3.8 percent Net Investment Income Tax.
3) Tax unrealized capital gains at death for unrealized gains over 1 million(2 million for joint filers)
4) Keep the capital gains exclusion of $250K/$500K for primary residence.
5) Limit like kind 1031 exchanges above $500K in capital gains
We'll see where they finally settle out, one thing is for sure tax rates will be higher in the future.
That's a good point about leaving money in cash. But people will be forced to have more money in cash to pay these potential taxes. I guess taxing long-term cap gains as income for those making 1 mill seems somewhat reasonable although I still think it disincemtivises people. They may look to invest elsewhere or make less than 1 mill year.
Yes, taxes will go up for everyone. I have about ss much confidence in the "success" of these two potential bills as I do beating a kangaroo in a jumping contest. I'm not even sure better roads and bridges will be built in the next 20 yrs.
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Taxing unrealized gains on a yearly basis is not going to happen, just something being proposed by some on the far left but no republican or even moderate dems will support that.
Even if they did start taxing unrealized gains, if interest rates remain where they are now, why would anyone leave their money in cash? To earn zero and lose to inflation? Unless interest rates go up substantially, people with means will continue to invest in assets that can appreciate over time and outpace inflation. If they have gains and are being taxed, they would likely sell those assets to raise the cash to pay the tax. Either way if they made 10% and lose half to taxes, doesn't a net 5% still beat zero?
From my understanding, here are some of the proposals the Biden administraion has put out there:
1) Raising the top marginal rate back to 39.6 from the current 37 percent. This is happening regardless in 2025 as that is when the Trump tax cuts are expiring, which increases everyone's marginal tax rates, not just those above $400K. Under this proposal the higher marginal rates would apply to incomes over 452,700 for single filers, 481,000 for head of household and 509,300 for joint filers. Those numbers would then be indexed for inflation in future years.
2) Tax long-term capital gains as ordinary income for people with an AGI above 1 million, resulting in a top marginal rate of 43.4 when including the 3.8 percent Net Investment Income Tax.
3) Tax unrealized capital gains at death for unrealized gains over 1 million(2 million for joint filers)
4) Keep the capital gains exclusion of $250K/$500K for primary residence.
5) Limit like kind 1031 exchanges above $500K in capital gains
We'll see where they finally settle out, one thing is for sure tax rates will be higher in the future.
Outstanding, valuable summary. Thanks!
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We'll see where they finally settle out, one thing is for sure tax rates will be higher in the future.
My president has promised me that the only people who will pay more because of his proposals have incomes greater than 400,000 a year. He’s a pretty funny guy, a’ina?
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My president has promised me that the only people who will pay more because of his proposals have incomes greater than 400,000 a year. He’s a pretty funny guy, a’ina?
Who would have figured that we'd all have to pay to live in a functioning society?
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My president has promised me that the only people who will pay more because of his proposals have incomes greater than 400,000 a year. He’s a pretty funny guy, a’ina?
Which of the listed proposals impact you if you are under $400K?
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Appreciate the thorough post. But we need more. Much more.
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Appreciate the thorough post. But we need more. Much more.
Like what? Im not trying to pick on you but you continually complain about wealth inequality or post videos about rich getting richer with just some Robin Hood-like sentiment. Im just bemused by the idea that the only solution for wealth inequality and a system that enables it is aggressive taxation.
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Like what? Im not trying to pick on you but you continually complain about wealth inequality or post videos about rich getting richer with just some Robin Hood-like sentiment. Im just bemused by the idea that the only solution for wealth inequality and a system that enables it is aggressive taxation.
It's a good question. I'm no financial expert. But I do see the last 40 years aren't working. And, from what I've read/heard/seen, the changes in the last 40 years are all about deregulation of the financial industry and adjustments made to taxes.
So, I guess reversing those changes?
We need to have the discussion of whether or not there is even a problem at hand. I think yes. What about you?
And, if we agree there's a problem, what kinda thoughts do you have about solutions?
If you don't agree there's a problem, then no need to discuss further.
IMO, this isn't something that's going to be solved (if you agree there's a problem) by private organizations in a capitalist system, so it requires government intervention.
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Which of the listed proposals impact you if you are under $400K?
Smitty
I don’t know if it was one of the “listed” proposals but who do you think pays for the 33% increase in the corporate tax rate? The poor and the middle class, of course. And the slower growth, job josses and inflation that come as a byproduct of being less competitive on the world stage? They get to pay again.
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Smitty
I don’t know if it was one of the “listed” proposals but who do you think pays for the 33% increase in the corporate tax rate? The poor and the middle class, of course. And the slower growth, job josses and inflation that come as a byproduct of being less competitive on the world stage? They get to pay again.
So finding no actual policy proposals that tax earners under $400K you want to pretend corporate tax rate increases are what you are talking about? Take the L dude.
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My president has promised me that the only people who will pay more because of his proposals have incomes greater than 400,000 a year. He’s a pretty funny guy, a’ina?
FD Joe duzant no chit from shinola, hey?
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FD Joe duzant no chit from shinola, hey?
Yeah, but does he think both chit and shinola are very fine people?
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Yeah, but does he think both chit and shinola are very fine people?
Are Chit and Shinola friends with PJ and Squi?
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So finding no actual policy proposals that tax earners under $400K you want to pretend corporate tax rate increases are what you are talking about? Take the L dude.
Policy matters. When policies push gas prices higher, who do you think feels pain - those who earn 400,000+? When policies produce inflation, who do you think bears the brunt? How about when corporations pass on their tax increases to consumers? If you don’t think the poor and middle class aren’t already paying more in this she’ll game you’re very much mistaken. Dude.
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Policy matters. When policies push gas prices higher, who do you think feels pain - those who earn 400,000+? 1. When policies produce inflation, who do you think bears the brunt? 2. How about when corporations pass on their tax increases to consumers? If you don’t think the poor and middle class aren’t already paying more in this she’ll game you’re very much mistaken. Dude.
On 1. If you think the current inflation issues are the result of current administration policies, you do not understand the what is affecting the current economy.
On 2. Corporations didn't pass those tax savings onto the consumer, so why should we expect them to pass the tax increase onto consumers. They used the tax savings to increase CEO pay, and do stock buybacks.
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Policy matters. When policies push gas prices higher, who do you think feels pain - those who earn 400,000+? When policies produce inflation, who do you think bears the brunt? How about when corporations pass on their tax increases to consumers? If you don’t think the poor and middle class aren’t already paying more in this she’ll game you’re very much mistaken. Dude.
So again, zero of the proposed policies tax those earning under $400K. When you are wrong, you can admit, or you can go through a charade and move the goalposts Chicos style.
Inflation is not being caused by tax policies that are only in the proposal stage. Gas prices are driven by the macroeconomy. I suspect you know all this but are embarrassed that you made a dumb political statement and are now coming up with increasingly embarrassing rationale to try to support your inaccurate statement. Take.The.L.
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$PTLO went public today. In my head, I thought $30 a share made sense, and that’s where it landed most of the day.
Any thoughts early on here?
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I am buying stock in St. Louis
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$PTLO went public today. In my head, I thought $30 a share made sense, and that’s where it landed most of the day.
Any thoughts early on here?
I bought some shares of GDNA* to go with my PTLO, my friend.
*Giardiniera
Seriously, I put in a $25 limit order for some shares just because, but it started higher than that and never got lower. Closed at $29.10, but up a few percent after hours.
I only put in a day order, so I'll have to start over if I even want it -- the stock, that is. I always want the beef sammiches!
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Good stuff on both Q3 earnings and the ongoing supply chain issue and potential impact on Q4 from the Yahoo morning finance group* (Probably the only valuable thing remaining of what was once Yahoo):
"In fact, of the more than 140 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings thus far, nearly 82% of them have beaten Wall Street’s estimates, according to Refinitiv data. That’s well above the historical average of 66%, the firm notes, even though the ratio of negative pre-announcements to positive ones (0.8) is running well below the long-term average (2.6).
Given the worries that foreshadowed the Q3 reporting season, it’s almost enough to make you ask the question: What supply chain crisis?
The struggle to deliver goods and services — and to hire enough bodies to accomplish the task — is certainly writ large. Retailers and consumers alike are getting increasingly antsy about the holiday season, especially with inflation rearing its head — which was enough to hammer stocks in September, one of the most volatile months this year.
Yet, it's undeniable that companies are doing better than expected, and there are at least a couple of salient reasons behind this. So what’s going on?
Over at Deutsche Bank, chief equity strategist Binky Chadha recently crunched the Q3 numbers, and found some noise in otherwise strong results. As it turns out, the stellar performance of big banks was largely attributed to the release of loan-loss reserves that Wall Street thought it needed to cushion the blow of COVID-19.
If you exclude those factors, the headline outperformance of S&P 500 companies in aggregate during Q3 is running at a comparatively tame 8%, well below the current levels over 80%. The median results are even less impressive, checking in at 5.2%.
“Forward consensus estimates have risen modestly, but mostly due to higher oil prices. Excluding energy, estimates for [the fourth quarter] and 2022 are down slightly,” Reid said.
All told, it means the economy — and corporate America — isn’t out of the woods just yet. Keep one eye on Q3 earnings, but the other on guidance for Q4 and the upcoming calendar year.
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Complete scam artist and liar takes Christofascist scions for $100M? What a shame.
"The family of former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos invested nearly $100 million in Theranos after a marathon meeting with the biotech startup’s founder Elizabeth Holmes, a director of the billionaire’s family office testified on Tuesday.
Peterson testified that Holmes was “hand picking” uber-wealthy families to invest in the Palo Alto company, which claimed its portable blood-testing devices could screen for scores of diseases with just the prick of a patient’s finger. (But, according to federal prosecutors, Holmes and Balwani knew their technology didn’t work as advertised, even as they peddled it to consumers and high-powered investors.)
Shortly after this meeting, Peterson and DeVos family members gathered in the Theranos parking lot to discuss their planned $50 million investment, which they ultimately doubled, the Wall Street Journal reported. (On Tuesday, the defense presented an email from Peterson that said RDV Corporation, with the blessing of siblings Doug and Cheri DeVos, had agreed to give Theranos $100 million “on the spot.”)
Theranos also provided a copy of a study with Pfizer’s logo, which suggested the pharma giant approved of the devices, Peterson added. (Last week, Pfizer scientist Shane Weber testified that he recommended the corporation decline a partnership with Theranos in 2008, and that the startup used Pfizer’s logo without permission.)
Meanwhile, Peterson testified that the DeVos family office was concerned that if their investigation into Theranos was too thorough, the firm would rescind the invitation to invest in what was billed as a groundbreaking technology."
https://news.yahoo.com/elizabeth-holmes-totally-fooled-betsy-233111461.html
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Complete scam artist and liar takes Christofascist scions for $100M? What a shame.
"The family of former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos invested nearly $100 million in Theranos after a marathon meeting with the biotech startup’s founder Elizabeth Holmes, a director of the billionaire’s family office testified on Tuesday.
Peterson testified that Holmes was “hand picking” uber-wealthy families to invest in the Palo Alto company, which claimed its portable blood-testing devices could screen for scores of diseases with just the prick of a patient’s finger. (But, according to federal prosecutors, Holmes and Balwani knew their technology didn’t work as advertised, even as they peddled it to consumers and high-powered investors.)
Shortly after this meeting, Peterson and DeVos family members gathered in the Theranos parking lot to discuss their planned $50 million investment, which they ultimately doubled, the Wall Street Journal reported. (On Tuesday, the defense presented an email from Peterson that said RDV Corporation, with the blessing of siblings Doug and Cheri DeVos, had agreed to give Theranos $100 million “on the spot.”)
Theranos also provided a copy of a study with Pfizer’s logo, which suggested the pharma giant approved of the devices, Peterson added. (Last week, Pfizer scientist Shane Weber testified that he recommended the corporation decline a partnership with Theranos in 2008, and that the startup used Pfizer’s logo without permission.)
Meanwhile, Peterson testified that the DeVos family office was concerned that if their investigation into Theranos was too thorough, the firm would rescind the invitation to invest in what was billed as a groundbreaking technology."
https://news.yahoo.com/elizabeth-holmes-totally-fooled-betsy-233111461.html
Gotta be some good Amway "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" advice we can give to her. Arch pyramid schemer falls victim to scheme, I have no sympathy to give.
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I think that there is a lot financial engineering going into corporate earnings at the moment. To say that I am shocked with some of the earnings is an understatement. I have noted many times on the firsthand evidence on the supply chain side, rising costs and increased labor costs, yet all have gone unnoticed in the big boys earnings. While I hope I am 100% wrong, I am becoming more skeptical on how earnings are being reported. I expected beat on the top line due to higher sales prices, I thought bottomline would suffer.
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I think that there is a lot financial engineering going into corporate earnings at the moment. To say that I am shocked with some of the earnings is an understatement. I have noted many times on the firsthand evidence on the supply chain side, rising costs and increased labor costs, yet all have gone unnoticed in the big boys earnings. While I hope I am 100% wrong, I am becoming more skeptical on how earnings are being reported. I expected beat on the top line due to higher sales prices, I thought bottomline would suffer.
China has raised prices on a lot of goods... as you well know.
Inflation imported from the East.
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Should I sell AAPL today as I'm officially up over 200%? Or should I wait 15+ yrs and buy more on the dips? I think most people are worried about a major market correction in the next year.
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I think that there is a lot financial engineering going into corporate earnings at the moment. To say that I am shocked with some of the earnings is an understatement. I have noted many times on the firsthand evidence on the supply chain side, rising costs and increased labor costs, yet all have gone unnoticed in the big boys earnings. While I hope I am 100% wrong, I am becoming more skeptical on how earnings are being reported. I expected beat on the top line due to higher sales prices, I thought bottomline would suffer.
There is also TONS of BS involved in analyst estimates and "predictions" for earnings. That game of upgrades/downgrades, EPS projections on quarterly reports, etc... has been a joke for years. Add that to financial engineering and its clear as mud on a quarterly basis. Also why price reactions to earnings reports are more unpredictable than ever.
China has raised prices on a lot of goods... as you well know.
Inflation imported from the East.
It was going on before inflation. Goose can speak to it, but I personally know multiple industries and companies in said industries that have shifted away from China due to increasing costs. Sure its cheaper than the US, but that doesn't mean rising costs are any more fun to bear. A lot of it gets ridden out cause its costly to move and cause the logistics, supply chain, and process through China is so established and well defined.
Should I sell AAPL today as I'm officially up over 200%? Or should I wait 15+ yrs and buy more on the dips? I think most people are worried about a major market correction in the next year.
I mean, I would scale some off. If you truly think its going to keep going up over time, there is ample opportunity to rebuy after some healthy corrections and pullback. Big tech is majorly overheated.
I'm not making a Heisey call of an AAPL crash, but I remain skeptical on major AAPL 2x/3x/5x returns into the future. They are a $1T hardware company now and with innovation in products a bit lagging, I'm not sure the cycle churn of new versions of existing products is enough.
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Should I sell AAPL today as I'm officially up over 200%? Or should I wait 15+ yrs and buy more on the dips? I think most people are worried about a major market correction in the next year.
Are you good at timing the market? Do you believe AAPL will outperform over underperform the market in those next 15 years you talk about?
I wouldn't get too wrapped up in hitting a particular percentage gain. Congrats on hitting a triple, but the real question is what you think the stock will do relative to other options going forward. If you think it is overheated as Wags does, there is nothing wrong with taking a profit, though remember that you'll pay cap gains. The question is, if you do that, what will you do with the remaining proceeds after selling and paying gains?
I've shared before that timing my selling if definitely not my forte, so I am giving no advice here.
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Are you good at timing the market? Do you believe AAPL will outperform over underperform the market in those next 15 years you talk about?
I wouldn't get too wrapped up in hitting a particular percentage gain. Congrats on hitting a triple, but the real question is what you think the stock will do relative to other options going forward. If you think it is overheated as Wags does, there is nothing wrong with taking a profit, though remember that you'll pay cap gains. The question is, if you do that, what will you do with the remaining proceeds after selling and paying gains?
I've shared before that timing my selling if definitely not my forte, so I am giving no advice here.
My philosophy mirrors yours. It's a decent chunk of money but it's not like I can retire off of it, especially after the cap gains taxes. I tend to believe it's better to hold onto despite likely peaks and valleys. I would sell it immediately if the profits could help in MU hoops dominance. :)
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Should I sell AAPL today as I'm officially up over 200%? Or should I wait 15+ yrs and buy more on the dips? I think most people are worried about a major market correction in the next year.
The question I ask myself when considering exiting a position is, "Would I buy more at the current price?" and, "If I ran a large PE firm, would I want to own a large % of that business and sit on their BoD for the next ~5-10 years?" If the answer is hell yeah then I hold.
I tend to be chasing larger gains with growth-stage companies, so this may not resonate with you:
For AAPL, personally? I own enough AAPL in my index funds for my liking. I don't believe that the portfolio concentration risk is equally weighted with the percentage chance of outsized returns. AAPL has been struggling to push past $300B in annual revenue for 3 years now. They broke $100B in 2010, $200B in 2015, and then have hung around $250B annually for years now. Their net income has been hanging around $50B for years.
That being said, AAPL holds $38B in cash, $30B in current securities, and $20B in receivables. They could straight up buy an S&P 500 company right now with cash as long as they are willing to repatriate that money to the US.
Long story short: AAPL isn't a growth company right now, but they have enough cash on hand that if they re-find their innovation culture they could be off to the races. Hopefully you like their dividend in the meantime. It's a nice, safe brand to hold onto. An outstanding company with outstanding management.
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I'm up 1000% with Cloudflare and I'm not selling. See you all on the moon.
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I'm up 1000% with Cloudflare and I'm not selling. See you all on the moon.
Nice
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I'm up 1000% with Cloudflare and I'm not selling. See you all on the moon.
SWEET!!! And ty for the detailed response and analysis. Without getting political what's your take on cap gains going up or even the possibility of unrealized gains being taxed? I can deal if they bump it to 28% but the unrealized gains? This would be a complete disaster imo. I have to believe that wont happen but nothing is certain outside of my cross-over dribble making fools look silly. :)
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SWEET!!! And ty for the detailed response and analysis. Without getting political what's your take on cap gains going up or even the possibility of unrealized gains being taxed? I can deal if they bump it to 28% but the unrealized gains? This would be a complete disaster imo. I have to believe that wont happen but nothing is certain outside of my cross-over dribble making fools look silly. :)
You didn't ask me, but capital should be taxed at the same levels as income.
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You didn't ask me, but capital should be taxed at the same levels as income.
What if you are retired or semi-retired and have a low/no income but a high net worth and investment income ? I don't neccessary have a prob with divs and c-g's taxed based on your income but it's conceivable it will drive the wealthiest away from the market which impacts everyone.
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What if you are retired or semi-retired and have a low/no income but a high net worth and investment income ? I don't neccessary have a prob with divs and c-g's taxed based on your income but it's conceivable it will drive the wealthiest away from the market which impacts everyone.
Don't bother.
Anyone gonna invest in Meta? 🤪🤪
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Now you know why I asked about AAPL! Their earnings were extremely disappointing. Lol..
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Now you know why I asked about AAPL! Their earnings were extremely disappointing. Lol..
Were they? Yes, relative to estimates they came in light. But for the fiscal year revenues were up 33% and earnings were up 71% (thanks in part to buybacks), despite $6B in lost sales due to supply chain.
Sounds like Q4 will be more of the same.
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What if you are retired or semi-retired and have a low/no income but a high net worth and investment income ? I don't neccessary have a prob with divs and c-g's taxed based on your income but it's conceivable it will drive the wealthiest away from the market which impacts everyone.
I stand by my first statement - capital should be taxed at same levels of income.
I think there's discussion to be had about a progressive tax system for capital though, much like income.
While we're here...get rid of the step-up basis and the carried interest loophole.
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While we're here...get rid of the step-up basis and the carried interest loophole.
Ehh, I feel like step-up basis is actually something that can meaningfully impact middle class people. It’s not just some tool of the rich. Inherit your parent’s $250K house but not have to pay capital gains on the $200K in appreciation since the house was purchased decades ago. $50K can be mean a lot to someone who otherwise might not have received much.
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Ehh, I feel like step-up basis is actually something that can meaningfully impact middle class people. It’s not just some tool of the rich. Inherit your parent’s $250K house but not have to pay capital gains on the $200K in appreciation since the house was purchased decades ago. $50K can be mean a lot to someone who otherwise might not have received much.
Okay. Easy fix. Progressive structure
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I stand by my first statement - capital should be taxed at same levels of income.
I think there's discussion to be had about a progressive tax system for capital though, much like income.
While we're here...get rid of the step-up basis and the carried interest loophole.
Short-Term cap gains are taxed at income level brackets. If you tax long-term cap-gains at 37% or more I think it could lead to far less investment. I could be wrong but I would think the ultra-rich would consider other options and perhaps even those fortunate to have a decent net worth would as well. I think JWags brings up an interesting situation.
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I don’t agree that they need to be taxed at normal income. It’s still at risk capital and should be treated differently as such.
But I have no problem with an increase. 25-27% top rate puts the US in line with many of the European countries. Do that and clean up some of the loopholes and call it a day. There will be some hemming and hawing, but that puts it around the rate in the 90s which is fine and won’t lead to reduced investment.
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I don’t agree that they need to be taxed at normal income. It’s still at risk capital and should be treated differently as such.
But I have no problem with an increase. 25-27% top rate puts the US in line with many of the European countries. Do that and clean up some of the loopholes and call it a day. There will be some hemming and hawing, but that puts it around the rate in the 90s which is fine and won’t lead to reduced investment.
That sounds fairly reasonable.
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I don’t agree that they need to be taxed at normal income. It’s still at risk capital and should be treated differently as such.
But I have no problem with an increase. 25-27% top rate puts the US in line with many of the European countries. Do that and clean up some of the loopholes and call it a day. There will be some hemming and hawing, but that puts it around the rate in the 90s which is fine and won’t lead to reduced investment.
Dividend income is being increasingly treated like wage income. It really needs to be taxed as such. Capital gains? Cool with a discount on that.
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SWEET!!! And ty for the detailed response and analysis. Without getting political what's your take on cap gains going up or even the possibility of unrealized gains being taxed? I can deal if they bump it to 28% but the unrealized gains? This would be a complete disaster imo. I have to believe that wont happen but nothing is certain outside of my cross-over dribble making fools look silly. :)
If they suddenly tax unrealized gains I'm sure they'll allow us to amortize those expenses over a few years.
If they decide to raise short/long-term cap gains taxes, what are you going to do? Where else will you park your money? Do you have something else to do with your invested cash that will give you higher returns, lower taxes?
While this does add some unknown into my retirement calculations, so does the thought that it would be in the best interest of the government to tax my IRA dollars as income.
The best thing we can do is diversify our income streams among taxable & tax-advantaged accounts, and plan for the worse. It's more likely that a sudden, catastrophic health event will negatively impact my retirement IMO. Worst case you can just get a job at Arby's, I heard that nobody wants to work these days so you should have some leverage in salary negotiations.
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Dividend income is being increasingly treated like wage income. It really needs to be taxed as such. Capital gains? Cool with a discount on that.
Yea I don't have an issue with that. I view dividends and cap gains as separate situations.
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If they suddenly tax unrealized gains I'm sure they'll allow us to amortize those expenses over a few years.
If they decide to raise short/long-term cap gains taxes, what are you going to do? Where else will you park your money? Do you have something else to do with your invested cash that will give you higher returns, lower taxes?
While this does add some unknown into my retirement calculations, so does the thought that it would be in the best interest of the government to tax my IRA dollars as income.
The best thing we can do is diversify our income streams among taxable & tax-advantaged accounts, and plan for the worse. It's more likely that a sudden, catastrophic health event will negatively impact my retirement IMO. Worst case you can just get a job at Arby's, I heard that nobody wants to work these days so you should have some leverage in salary negotiations.
True.....there aren't a whole lot of options.
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Another beat and raise from CVS.
I do think it is pretty much fully valued here after being up +38% YTD. Next catalyst will be restarting dividend increases either with the Q4 earning report or before the Q1 dividend declaration.
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Another beat and raise from CVS.
I do think it is pretty much fully valued here after being up +38% YTD. Next catalyst will be restarting dividend increases either with the Q4 earning report or before the Q1 dividend declaration.
Yes, a very nice report. A medium-sized position for me, and I'm fine with that. Like you, I'm hoping they get back to raising their dividend again.
Re market overall ... actually went up after the Fed announced its taper. Seems a classic case of something already been priced in, as it had been talked about and expected for months and months and months.
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Rough day for $PENN (on a couple different levels if you’re digging around on Twitter).
$DKNG probably priced to miss, but the bottom could fall out tomorrow there. If you like gambling stocks and don’t own any, the time to buy is near.
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Rough day for $PENN (on a couple different levels if you’re digging around on Twitter).
$DKNG probably priced to miss, but the bottom could fall out tomorrow there. If you like gambling stocks and don’t own any, the time to buy is near.
I only have a smallish DKNG position. Curious about tomorrow's earnings.
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Cloudflare with a beat and raise.
I really enjoyed Matt Prince's Halloween tweet - https://twitter.com/eastdakota/status/1455034553152589834
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Cloudflare with a beat and raise.
I really enjoyed Matt Prince's Halloween tweet - https://twitter.com/eastdakota/status/1455034553152589834
Would you buy more at this price?
I feel like I missed on SNOW, wanted it to fall under $200 and it got away from me. Cloudflare still a buy at the current price?
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Good post-close earning reports for the TSmith portfolio last night, beats from HASI, MAIN, OHI, and ERII, plus the news from PFE this morning.
IMO:
* HASI is a LT buy
* MAIN you can nibble on but it is more than fully valued and there are better choices amongst the business development corps
* OHI is a hold; their operators are not out of the woods
* ERII is a buy under $20.
* PFE, I have a full position thanks to picking up more as the pandemic hit, but...I've seen this movie before of popping on good news only to have the gains erode over the next week or so. With it moving +10% on the news, I'm probably buying some intermediate puts here.
<insert MU82's disclaimer here of not offering investment advice>
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Would you buy more at this price?
I feel like I missed on SNOW, wanted it to fall under $200 and it got away from me. Cloudflare still a buy at the current price?
My initial cost basis is ~$17.50, but I bought more during the pullback at the end of September at $117.5.
I'm holding, but at this point it's a concentration risk for me to pile in any more cash.
If I didn't have a NET position I'd take one right now. NET was at $220 pre-market and is hanging around $203 right now. Despite the ridiculous multiple it's trading at, they are growing very quickly. They add new large customers at an astonishing rate, and their net retention rate is ~120% which is mind boggling. Really sticky platform offering infrastructure, security, and networking as a service that's so simple that even I can use it for my business despite having not really being an engineer anymore for ~10 years.
Edit: My current/next long-shot is Sofi
Sofi is a neo-bank, which is boring. What's interesting to me is that they acquired a tech company Galileo in 2019 and have invested heavily in turning Galileo from an on-premise offering into a cloud offering over the past ~year. Galileo is run at arms length, and is the back-end offering that enables Sofi, Robinhood, Chime, Verizon, etc to offer banking and card services without the operational headache. It's basically a neo-bank in a box. Galileo's revenue (on Sofi's SEC filings it shows up as 'technology services') has been doubling YoY, and the heavy investment that has been sucking the profits out of that segment are nearing an end. I'm bullish on Galileo and on Sofi's ability to funnel their lending profits into more tech offerings like this.
We'll see. I've been averaging down my basis on Sofi since $25 and I'm finally in the green. Maybe it'll turn into something. Earnings is on the 10th so we'll see if they've made progress.
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Edit: My current/next long-shot is Sofi
Sofi is a neo-bank, which is boring. What's interesting to me is that they acquired a tech company Galileo in 2019 and have invested heavily in turning Galileo from an on-premise offering into a cloud offering over the past ~year. Galileo is run at arms length, and is the back-end offering that enables Sofi, Robinhood, Chime, Verizon, etc to offer banking and card services without the operational headache. It's basically a neo-bank in a box. Galileo's revenue (on Sofi's SEC filings it shows up as 'technology services') has been doubling YoY, and the heavy investment that has been sucking the profits out of that segment are nearing an end. I'm bullish on Galileo and on Sofi's ability to funnel their lending profits into more tech offerings like this.
We'll see. I've been averaging down my basis on Sofi since $25 and I'm finally in the green. Maybe it'll turn into something. Earnings is on the 10th so we'll see if they've made progress.
I was pretty anti-SOFI after a pretty bad experience with them a number of years ago and because of their association with Chamath the Charlatan. But seeing what UPST has done makes me think the appetite for this sector is pretty robust. And SoFi is managed well and has a better comprehensive sector strategy IMO, whereas UPST seems, empirically, to just be feeding off need and some millennial desperation
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My initial cost basis is ~$17.50, but I bought more during the pullback at the end of September at $117.5.
I'm holding, but at this point it's a concentration risk for me to pile in any more cash.
If I didn't have a NET position I'd take one right now. NET was at $220 pre-market and is hanging around $203 right now. Despite the ridiculous multiple it's trading at, they are growing very quickly. They add new large customers at an astonishing rate, and their net retention rate is ~120% which is mind boggling. Really sticky platform offering infrastructure, security, and networking as a service that's so simple that even I can use it for my business despite having not really being an engineer anymore for ~10 years.
Thanks for the response, I may nibble. However, very SNOW-like, seems like it is priced for perfection and beyond.
Quite the chart pattern today.
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Thanks for the response, I may nibble. However, very SNOW-like, seems like it is priced for perfection and beyond.
Quite the chart pattern today.
Sector rotation, whatchu gonna do
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Sector rotation, whatchu gonna do
Yup. CRWD has the same pattern.
And an 11 bagger on NET is outstanding.
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I've had a few people at work pimping Nerdwallet the past few days. Any thoughts on their potential?
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Peloton is taking an absolute beating starting after hours last night. I sold at $144, it is under $60 now, down nearly 35% since the close yesterday. The end of the pandemic, the opening of gyms, and increased competition are killing them.
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I've had a few people at work pimping Nerdwallet the past few days. Any thoughts on their potential?
A friend and I are considering this one out of all of the announced IPOs. Here's my quick pseudo-informed take
Bull case - Nerdwallet has the hard thing nailed: SEO and brand building. They are the funnel by which most Gen Z and Millenials make their personal/biz banking, credit card, and SMB loan decisions... so they have customer acquisition solved. Additionally, Nerdwallet is a major funnel for a lot of online brokers (Lendio, Fundera, Fundbox), banks, and card companies. Nerdwallet's moat is the solid middleman position that they have. They can leverage this position for better affiliate/broker fees, or to launch their own neo-bank products directly. The consumer finance market is enormous, and Nerdwallet's solid content strategy has created a very focused inbound funnel which is very valuable.
Bear case - Consumer/SMB finance is a busy market with a lot of players. Nerdwallet can become another broker in that space? Nerdwallet pushing to become a broker/bank/lender themselves will detract from their current value prop which is "trusted 3rd party helping consumers navigate the world of consumer finance." Nerdwallet is also far too dependent on Papa Google's SEO rankings. If Google deranks them, what does their funnel look like? Just ad spend? You can't crutch a consumer funnel with a sales team so they'd be up a creek as far as their operating budget goes.
Funny point on my bear case - I was googling around and Nerdwallet acquired Fundera (SMB loan marketplace), so I guess they're going the broker route first to try to keep their credibility with the public
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A friend and I are considering this one out of all of the announced IPOs. Here's my quick pseudo-informed take
Bull case - Nerdwallet has the hard thing nailed: SEO and brand building. They are the funnel by which most Gen Z and Millenials make their personal/biz banking, credit card, and SMB loan decisions... so they have customer acquisition solved. Additionally, Nerdwallet is a major funnel for a lot of online brokers (Lendio, Fundera, Fundbox), banks, and card companies. Nerdwallet's moat is the solid middleman position that they have. They can leverage this position for better affiliate/broker fees, or to launch their own neo-bank products directly. The consumer finance market is enormous, and Nerdwallet's solid content strategy has created a very focused inbound funnel which is very valuable.
Bear case - Consumer/SMB finance is a busy market with a lot of players. Nerdwallet can become another broker in that space? Nerdwallet pushing to become a broker/bank/lender themselves will detract from their current value prop which is "trusted 3rd party helping consumers navigate the world of consumer finance." Nerdwallet is also far too dependent on Papa Google's SEO rankings. If Google deranks them, what does their funnel look like? Just ad spend? You can't crutch a consumer funnel with a sales team so they'd be up a creek as far as their operating budget goes.
Funny point on my bear case - I was googling around and Nerdwallet acquired Fundera (SMB loan marketplace), so I guess they're going the broker route first to try to keep their credibility with the public
Ty for your knowledge. I like the concept but do you know if there have been similar financial apps and how they have generally done? They certainly appear to be organized and fairly comprehensive.
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Ty for your knowledge. I like the concept but do you know if there have been similar financial apps and how they have generally done? They certainly appear to be organized and fairly comprehensive.
I'm hoping someone else chimes in there, I'd love to hear different POVs on this one.
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I took a small-ish position in NRDS last week at a $24 basis. If it drops below $22 I'll buy more.
This is pure speculation that they can monetize their massive funnel.
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I took a small-ish position in NRDS last week at a $24 basis. If it drops below $22 I'll buy more.
This is pure speculation that they can monetize their massive funnel.
I think that's a good risk. I mean, they wouldn't be the first tech company to go public with a large valuation and tons of "potential" but a profit strategy like the Underpants Gnomes.
Step 1: Get underpants (users)
Step 2: ????
Step 3: PROFIT
Their path to monetization is easier than a lot of other freeware, but its such a crowded space. We shall see.
Given Powell's renewal today, it should likely be a boon for a lot of the financial names. NRDS probably rises with the tide.
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I think that's a good risk. I mean, they wouldn't be the first tech company to go public with a large valuation and tons of "potential" but a profit strategy like the Underpants Gnomes.
Step 1: Get underpants (users)
Step 2: ????
Step 3: PROFIT
Their path to monetization is easier than a lot of other freeware, but its such a crowded space. We shall see.
Given Powell's renewal today, it should likely be a boon for a lot of the financial names. NRDS probably rises with the tide.
I like Powell & I like Brainard's monetary policy. Should be smooth sailing in the markets for the foreseeable future as far as Fed policy is concerned.
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I took a small-ish position in NRDS last week at a $24 basis. If it drops below $22 I'll buy more.
This is pure speculation that they can monetize their massive funnel.
Should I buy when it drops to about $15?
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Should I buy when it drops to about $15?
I've been averaging down, and I've bought as much as I intend to. My last buy was just below $15. Their revenue doesn't really support their valuation, so it's a bet on future growth. If I didn't already have such a large position I'd be picking up NET right now.
Big oof week in the market if you like growth companies. I just blew through my fun money buying stocks that have taken a hit, so the market will probably tank next week. Fair warning :p
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I've been averaging down, and I've bought as much as I intend to. My last buy was just below $15. Their revenue doesn't really support their valuation, so it's a bet on future growth. If I didn't already have such a large position I'd be picking up NET right now.
Big oof week in the market if you like growth companies. I just blew through my fun money buying stocks that have taken a hit, so the market will probably tank next week. Fair warning :p
You'll be alright. You are a shrewd long-term investor and will manage the storms along the way.
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You'll be alright. You are a shrewd long-term investor and will manage the storms along the way.
The trick is to bring in so much cash every month that market downturns don't sting. I just need a few invoices paid so that I can refill my fun money, ya know?
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Took a small position in Twitter this afternoon. Removing Jack Dorsey is a potential upside catalyst IMO.
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Crazy end to a crazy week.
Did a little nibbling the last few days: FB, V, MA, MRK, RTX, GOOGL, a few others.
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Crazy end to a crazy week.
Did a little nibbling the last few days: FB, V, MA, MRK, RTX, GOOGL, a few others.
Buy when there's blood in the streets
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Buy when there's blood in the streets
Market less than 5% off of all time highs. FRIDAY BLOODY FRIDAY
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Market less than 5% off of all time highs. FRIDAY BLOODY FRIDAY
Yeah, it was tongue in cheek :)
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Market less than 5% off of all time highs. FRIDAY BLOODY FRIDAY
Yeah, it's funny to hear people proclaiming the end of the world when there's a volatile week with a lot of big names down.
Rough time especially for more speculative names that have no earnings, the types of "disruptive" stocks that were all the rage at the start of the year.
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Yeah, it was tongue in cheek :)
Haha it was less about you and everyone for the last few years who scream to buy every dip...when they aren't really dips
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Haha it was less about you and everyone for the last few years who scream to buy every dip...when they aren't really dips
Growth stocks off ~25% is a notable past couple of weeks. My watch list of EXFY, NET, SOFI, and NRDS are all on discount. DOCN available at a discount as well.
Strong sector rotation with a flight from growth to safety.
I'm honestly not good at timing dips. I always buy too early, and honestly don't keep much cash on hand to take advantage of this sort of movement.
Yeah, it's funny to hear people proclaiming the end of the world when there's a volatile week with a lot of big names down.
Rough time especially for more speculative names that have no earnings, the types of "disruptive" stocks that were all the rage at the start of the year.
Not profitable is not the same as unable to be profitable. I'd prefer a company that is using their revenue on growth/innovation over a company paying a dividend because they're out of ideas.
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Not profitable is not the same as unable to be profitable. I'd prefer a company that is using their revenue on growth/innovation over a company paying a dividend because they're out of ideas.
Re your first sentence, I agree.
Re your second, I like companies that can do both, and many can. I'm not talking about those with high yields. I'm talking about, say, MSFT, HD, NEE, AAPL, LHX, LRCX, COST, etc. I do have some "boring" dividend-growers (the JNJs and PGs and PEPs of the world) but also have some non-dividend names (GOOGL, AMZN, FB). I also have a small, speculative bucket ... and most of those have gotten blitzed recently. My NIO position, for example, is about 30% underwater. My DKNG, one of my biggest "winners" a couple months ago, is now one of my biggest "losers." Thankfully, as I said, those make up only a very small percentage of our portfolio.
I have a feeling I'm also at a different stage of my investing journey than you are. In 2-4 years, my wife and I will be starting to live off our dividends and capital gains (in addition to SS and pensions).
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Re your first sentence, I agree.
Re your second, I like companies that can do both, and many can. I'm not talking about those with high yields. I'm talking about, say, MSFT, HD, NEE, AAPL, LHX, LRCX, COST, etc. I do have some "boring" dividend-growers (the JNJs and PGs and PEPs of the world) but also have some non-dividend names (GOOGL, AMZN, FB). I also have a small, speculative bucket ... and most of those have gotten blitzed recently. My NIO position, for example, is about 30% underwater. My DKNG, one of my biggest "winners" a couple months ago, is now one of my biggest "losers." Thankfully, as I said, those make up only a very small percentage of our portfolio.
I have a feeling I'm also at a different stage of my investing journey than you are. In 2-4 years, my wife and I will be starting to live off our dividends and capital gains (in addition to SS and pensions).
We're in agreement, mostly. The majority of my investments are in index funds, it's just not that interesting to talk about lazy portfolios. I have my bucket of fun money in small-ish speculative bets similar to you. Psychologically it's very interesting because those speculative bets aren't a ton of money, but they occupy a lot of my investing-related thoughts. It keeps my grubby little mitts from messing with the majority of my portfolio.
My question for you: Why directly invest in companies over index mutual funds or etfs? Is that just the way you've been doing it for long enough that you don't want to realize your capital gains right now?
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We're in agreement, mostly. The majority of my investments are in index funds, it's just not that interesting to talk about lazy portfolios. I have my bucket of fun money in small-ish speculative bets similar to you. Psychologically it's very interesting because those speculative bets aren't a ton of money, but they occupy a lot of my investing-related thoughts. It keeps my grubby little mitts from messing with the majority of my portfolio.
My question for you: Why directly invest in companies over index mutual funds or etfs? Is that just the way you've been doing it for long enough that you don't want to realize your capital gains right now?
Legit question.
As the Great Recession raged on, and I saw our portfolio of index funds crash by 50-60% (as everybody else's did), I grew concerned that we might not make it to retirement with enough income to cover our needs and wants. I started reading about Dividend Growth Investing and it made sense to me -- invest in some of the strongest companies in the world, blue-chippers with excellent credit ratings that not only paid dividends but grew them annually at inflation-beating rates.
I gradually moved into individual stocks. I made plenty of mistakes early -- did some yield-chasing, etc -- but after a couple/few years ended up with my tweak of DGI, which included more growth and lower-yielders than a lot of others who use the strategy. That led me to the AMZNs, GOOGLs, AAPLs, MSFTs, etc, in addition to some of the "boring," medium-yielding consumer staples, utilities and others.
I never claim that the way I do things is superior to any other strategy, including the more traditional DGI or yours with mostly funds or growth/momentum or anything else. I'm not a fan of "my strategy is better than yours" people. What I do just works for me, gives me peace of mind. This past week, while some were freaking out, I was like, "OK, but TD, WEC, AMGN and MA just gave me some nice dividend hikes."
In addition to now having a portfolio worth more than I ever thought possible back in 2009, we have an income stream set up that will fund our needs and wants without ever having to sell stocks if we don't want to. It's a real comfort.
Thankfully, these last dozen years have been incredible for anybody in the market, whether one invests in individual stocks or index funds. Any investor who failed to kick butt these last dozen years should just go all cash and bury it under a rock in their backyards!
I wish you great fortune. Thanks for the conversation.
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Solid answer, thanks MU82. Best of luck with the transition from the accumulation phase to the distribution phase of investing. It's an interesting psychological hurdle, to be sure, after decades of focusing on making the numbers go up!
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Anyone have any experience in I bonds? The partner and I do have access to cash (that is earning way to little and realistically losing value), and could max out, as they just raised their rates to 7%+.
Thanks
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Anyone have any experience in I bonds? The partner and I do have access to cash (that is earning way to little and realistically losing value), and could max out, as they just raised their rates to 7%+.
Thanks
Haven't really thought about them, but that's a fantastic long term rate. Limited to buying $10k/SSN/yr
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Anyone have any experience in I bonds? The partner and I do have access to cash (that is earning way to little and realistically losing value), and could max out, as they just raised their rates to 7%+.
Thanks
I bought two $10K I-bonds (the limit), one for myself and one for my wife. Will buy two more early in 2022. It's really about the best safe investment out there. Very easy to set up an account.
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I never claim that the way I do things is superior to any other strategy, including the more traditional DGI or yours with mostly funds or growth/momentum or anything else. I'm not a fan of "my strategy is better than yours" people. What I do just works for me, gives me peace of mind. This past week, while some were freaking out, I was like, "OK, but TD, WEC, AMGN and MA just gave me some nice dividend hikes."
Of the stuff I took a deep breath on and bought in March of 2020, AMGN has been the only one I've really been disappointed with. Yes, it is up marginally, but widely lagging the indexes.
I realize that you are probably looking at it for the dividend and any cap appreciation is gravy, and certainly I don't mind the $7.00+/share it is throwing off in dividends, but still disappointing to me.
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Of the stuff I took a deep breath on and bought in March of 2020, AMGN has been the only one I've really been disappointed with. Yes, it is up marginally, but widely lagging the indexes.
I realize that you are probably looking at it for the dividend and any cap appreciation is gravy, and certainly I don't mind the $7.00+/share it is throwing off in dividends, but still disappointing to me.
Total return does matter to me, and AMGN has been a disappointment, yes.
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I just read a really good article in the December addition of Commentary Magazine about the market. It's from the guy who wrote Dow 36,000 years ago, James L. Glassman. I would highly recommend it. He wrote Dow 36,000 in 1999 and was pretty much ridiculed by everyone. Whooops.
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Keep in mind that he wrote in 1999 and said it would take 3-5 years to reach 36,000. It took ~22 years.
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Haven't really thought about them, but that's a fantastic long term rate. Limited to buying $10k/SSN/yr
The only issue is that that is not a long-term rate. That is the rate they will pay for the next six months, started in November. The rate will renew to something else in May, all depends on CPI-U.
The interest is determined by adding the fixed rate (currently 0, but changes every six months) and the CPI-U rate (changes every six months too). Good news is that unlike TIPS, I bonds can never go below zero in a deflationary environment but can pay zero if CPI-U is negative and the fixed rate is zero or low where the CPI-U is negative more than the fixed rate that is being credited.
If you think inflation will continue to run high, maybe May's rate will be similar, if things start to cool off, you'll get a lower rate in May.
You also have to hold the bond for a minimum of 5 years too otherwise you forfeit some of the interest.
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The only issue is that that is not a long-term rate. That is the rate they will pay for the next six months, started in November. The rate will renew to something else in May, all depends on CPI-U.
The interest is determined by adding the fixed rate (currently 0, but changes every six months) and the CPI-U rate (changes every six months too). Good news is that unlike TIPS, I bonds can never go below zero in a deflationary environment but can pay zero if CPI-U is negative and the fixed rate is zero or low where the CPI-U is negative more than the fixed rate that is being credited.
If you think inflation will continue to run high, maybe May's rate will be similar, if things start to cool off, you'll get a lower rate in May.
You also have to hold the bond for a minimum of 5 years too otherwise you forfeit some of the interest.
very helpful notes, thanks.
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Keep in mind that he wrote in 1999 and said it would take 3-5 years to reach 36,000. It took ~22 years.
That's true, he said by 2005. He briefly discusses where he went wrong with his initial prediction. It's more the overall premise of the article which I think is pretty spot-on.
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That's true, he said by 2005. He briefly discusses where he went wrong with his initial prediction. It's more the overall premise of the article which I think is pretty spot-on.
1. I find it weird that at the beginning of the article he does a victory dance for the Dow hitting 36,000 even though his prediction was seriously, seriously wrong.
2. His overall premise is "buy and hold over the long-term" from what I could glean, isn't it?
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The only issue is that that is not a long-term rate. That is the rate they will pay for the next six months, started in November. The rate will renew to something else in May, all depends on CPI-U.
The interest is determined by adding the fixed rate (currently 0, but changes every six months) and the CPI-U rate (changes every six months too). Good news is that unlike TIPS, I bonds can never go below zero in a deflationary environment but can pay zero if CPI-U is negative and the fixed rate is zero or low where the CPI-U is negative more than the fixed rate that is being credited.
If you think inflation will continue to run high, maybe May's rate will be similar, if things start to cool off, you'll get a lower rate in May.
You also have to hold the bond for a minimum of 5 years too otherwise you forfeit some of the interest.
Couple other things ...
You can't cash in an I-bond for at least a year. If you cash it in between 1 and 5 years, the penalty is 3 months' interest. That's a pretty small penalty given the interest rate. If you buy a $10K bond, it will earn about $700 in the first year. If you need or want the $ and cash it in one day later, you'll give up $175. That's not wonderful, but it still means you made 5.25% on your investment. And if you don't cash it in until, say, Year 4, that $175 will seem like peanuts. So it's not as if you're locked in for 5 years.
The bonds will continue to earn interest for up to 30 years if one wants to keep them that long. I bought my first I-bond in 2003 and have just let it ride.
My biggest nit is the $10K limit. I'd have loved to have bought more of this completely safe, fairly liquid investment at this great rate. Remember that's $10K per person. So one could buy a bond for oneself, the spouse and even the kids.
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1. I find it weird that at the beginning of the article he does a victory dance for the Dow hitting 36,000 even though his prediction was seriously, seriously wrong.
2. His overall premise is "buy and hold over the long-term" from what I could glean, isn't it?
Yes. And the every-time there's been major storms the market has weathered them. I found it interesting that a fewer percentage of people are invested now than in 1999. The bottom line is from a long term perspective there isn't a better option than the market despite the obvious fluctuations.
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Couple other things ...
You can't cash in an I-bond for at least a year. If you cash it in between 1 and 5 years, the penalty is 3 months' interest. That's a pretty small penalty given the interest rate. If you buy a $10K bond, it will earn about $700 in the first year. If you need or want the $ and cash it in one day later, you'll give up $175. That's not wonderful, but it still means you made 5.25% on your investment. And if you don't cash it in until, say, Year 4, that $175 will seem like peanuts. So it's not as if you're locked in for 5 years.
The bonds will continue to earn interest for up to 30 years if one wants to keep them that long. I bought my first I-bond in 2003 and have just let it ride.
My biggest nit is the $10K limit. I'd have loved to have bought more of this completely safe, fairly liquid investment at this great rate. Remember that's $10K per person. So one could buy a bond for oneself, the spouse and even the kids.
Mostly correct, the only thing is the 7% rate for November is only for 6 months. Worst case scenario is the rate goes to zero in May and you get about 3.5 for the year. I think it will do better than the 3.5 for the year as I don't think we will see a deflationary environment in the next six months.
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Mostly correct, the only thing is the 7% rate for November is only for 6 months. Worst case scenario is the rate goes to zero in May and you get about 3.5 for the year. I think it will do better than the 3.5 for the year as I don't think we will see a deflationary environment in the next six months.
Thanks for pointing that out.
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Lots of analyst love for AAPL (glasses! cars!) taking it to an all-time high despite production snarls. Seems fully valued here to me, not that valuations have stopped tech companies from continuing to rise, however.
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Lots of analyst love for AAPL (glasses! cars!) taking it to an all-time high despite production snarls. Seems fully valued here to me, not that valuations have stopped tech companies from continuing to rise, however.
Good thing all of us sold the AAPL we had and/or never bought it again based on the advice of Smuggles (Heisy) about 2000% ago!
Seriously ...
I'd agree with fully valued, and maybe even push it to crazy overvalued here. But I (and many others) have been saying that about AAPL and lots of stocks for a year or more now. It's a momentum market, especially in this space.
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Growth has picked up, they have a fanatical user base, and are sitting on a mountain of cash that lets them do whatever they want--buybacks, acquisitions, raising the dividend, or developing an Apple Car.
Just my opinion, they probably aren't undervalued but I don't see them as wildly overvalued either.
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Growth has picked up, they have a fanatical user base, and are sitting on a mountain of cash that lets them do whatever they want--buybacks, acquisitions, raising the dividend, or developing an Apple Car.
Just my opinion, they probably aren't undervalued but I don't see them as wildly overvalued either.
Trading at around 32 times expected 2022 earnings, and 28x projected 2023 earnings. That's pretty rich.
But I'm not selling, so I guess I don't think it's dangerously overvalued or anything. Then again, I hate selling ... thankfully. I'd have hated to have sold MSFT, COST, GOOGL, AMZN and many others just because they were perceived to have been overvalued.
I agree with you that AAPL is a heck of a company.
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I was looking to dump some money I had saved up for an upcoming vacation in early 2022, and bought AAPL about a month ago or so (bought it at $149 a share). I was just looking for something safe and make a few bucks, and knock on wood, its gone well as you guys have mentioned.
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Growth has picked up, they have a fanatical user base, and are sitting on a mountain of cash that lets them do whatever they want--buybacks, acquisitions, raising the dividend, or developing an Apple Car.
Just my opinion, they probably aren't undervalued but I don't see them as wildly overvalued either.
They've expanded deeply into the Chinese middle class.
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I hold a lot of AAPL in my US total market index. I don't see a reason to go more overweight on a company that has the largest market cap in the world.
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I can't disagree with that. Between my direct holdings and all the funds holding AAPL I have roughly a 4x weighting relative to a "standard" position. I am not buying more at the moment, but neither am I selling.
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I hold a lot of AAPL in my US total market index. I don't see a reason to go more overweight on a company that has the largest market cap in the world.
That's what I was told when I bought it 2.5 yrs ago. It's only up 300% since I was told not to buy it. :) I think we're all expecting an inflation correction but I'm holding onto it for another 20+ yrs.
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I just read a really good article in the December addition of Commentary Magazine about the market. It's from the guy who wrote Dow 36,000 years ago, James L. Glassman. I would highly recommend it. He wrote Dow 36,000 in 1999 and was pretty much ridiculed by everyone. Whooops.
Keep in mind that he wrote in 1999 and said it would take 3-5 years to reach 36,000. It took ~22 years.
He not only wrote DJIA 36,000 in 1999 saying it would take three to five years, but he panicked out near the low in 2011
Why I Was Wrong About 'Dow 36,000'
The world has changed since 1999. U.S. economic standing is now declining, and we have to account for risks not only to commerce but to the global order.
By James K. Glassman
Updated Feb. 24, 2011 12:01 am ET
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703584804576144683264748042
I told readers to tilt their retirement portfolios strongly toward stocks—but with an extra large dollop of optimism because stocks at the time seemed undervalued.
I was wrong.
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Another beat and raise from CVS.
I do think it is pretty much fully valued here after being up +38% YTD. Next catalyst will be restarting dividend increases either with the Q4 earning report or before the Q1 dividend declaration.
Bumped up FY2021 estimates, announced a $10B buy back program, and raised the dividend 10% today. Nice.
Forward PE is 11.6
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Anybody buying that PTON dip this morning? Sorry if this should have been posted in the What Are You Watching thread ;D ;D
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LOL, it dropped because of a scene in Sex in the City??? Seems like a good candidate for a bounce tomorrow, if you are looking for a short-term trade.
Longer term, they could be a candidate to be bought out. Lacking a buyout, however, I think investors are in for a bumpy ride. <rimshot>
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Thanks for pointing that out.
Appreciate the commentary from you and tortuga on this. I’m contemplating this as an alternative to my current “high-yield” savings (0.50%) and one-year CDs (best I’ve found is 0.40%).
Do you know if the three-month penalty is for the immediately preceding three months, or is it a 12-month average? Under tortuga’s example of the rate dropping to zero in the spring, would I pay a penalty of $0 in the fall since the previous three months had no interest, or would I potentially pay 25% of the roughly 3.5% I earned over the previous year?
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Appreciate the commentary from you and tortuga on this. I’m contemplating this as an alternative to my current “high-yield” savings (0.50%) and one-year CDs (best I’ve found is 0.40%).
Do you know if the three-month penalty is for the immediately preceding three months, or is it a 12-month average? Under tortuga’s example of the rate dropping to zero in the spring, would I pay a penalty of $0 in the fall since the previous three months had no interest, or would I potentially pay 25% of the roughly 3.5% I earned over the previous year?
From the Treasury Direct site:
"If you cash an I bond before it is five years old, you will lose the last three months of interest."
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_iredeem.htm
There's a lot of other stuff there in an FAQ format you might find useful. I wish you good fortune!
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Appreciate the commentary from you and tortuga on this. I’m contemplating this as an alternative to my current “high-yield” savings (0.50%) and one-year CDs (best I’ve found is 0.40%).
Do you know if the three-month penalty is for the immediately preceding three months, or is it a 12-month average? Under tortuga’s example of the rate dropping to zero in the spring, would I pay a penalty of $0 in the fall since the previous three months had no interest, or would I potentially pay 25% of the roughly 3.5% I earned over the previous year?
yeah, get your cash out of anything that isn't making you 5-7%. You won't even be keeping up with inflation at that level.
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Anybody buying that PTON dip this morning? Sorry if this should have been posted in the What Are You Watching thread ;D ;D
Peloton was trading at 170 less than a year ago and just under 100 a month and a half ago. Closed today at 38.51 today. So the stock is down almost 80% in a year and 58% in less than 2 months.
Lots of opportunities to buy dips in this dog and like all dogs it will have its day - but who knows where the bottom is?
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Is the stock market ready to have a major pullback, correction or even crash in 2022? This from the NYT:
Yes. Investors’ expectations for high growth next year look increasingly misguided in light of Omicron and lower government spending. Analysts currently expect the S&P 500’s profits to jump nearly 9 percent, or over twice as fast as the broader economy, which may not be possible given the current rate of inflation. When companies start to lower earnings targets — or miss them — the markets will surely follow.
No. Stock market collapses are extremely rare without recessions, and there’s no sign that one is in store for 2022. While some recent job growth data has been disappointing, an increasing number of Americans are still finding new positions. And consumer spending continues to beat expectations.
Maybe? Stocks may not fall drastically, but they may not continue to surge either. This viewpoint has supporters: Savita Subramanian, Bank of America’s head of U.S. equity strategy, predicts that the S&P 500 will rise less than 1 percent next year, and said the market’s biggest problem was “lofty expectations.”
I'll go with "maybe-ish"!
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It's been pretty fun to go through our collective predictions from the last year.
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Market down again, in correction territory.
What's everybody doing, if anything?
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Market down again, in correction territory.
What's everybody doing, if anything?
Buying
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Market down again, in correction territory.
What's everybody doing, if anything?
Stupid Fed
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Market down again, in correction territory.
What's everybody doing, if anything?
Nada. Letting my powder build up.
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Getting torn to pieces
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Logging into vanguard and crying. But seriously, have been interested in Chargepoint recently. Down big again today. Not profitable yet but metrics are getting better. Long long term play, only have about 2k in it right now. Curious on other EV charging play viewpoints (yes I know just invest in VTI and call it a day)
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Logging into vanguard and crying. But seriously, have been interested in Chargepoint recently. Down big again today. Not profitable yet but metrics are getting better. Long long term play, only have about 2k in it right now. Curious on other EV charging play viewpoints (yes I know just invest in VTI and call it a day)
Not really my cup of tea. That being said: Last month Biden said they're going to build 500k charging stations (a campaign promise of his). According to this, there should be guidelines for states by mid-May - https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/13/fact-sheet-the-biden-harris-electric-vehicle-charging-action-plan/
If I had a bull case for anyone in the industry, the outcomes of that vendor selection process would be the core of my short-term bull case.
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Logging into vanguard and crying. But seriously, have been interested in Chargepoint recently. Down big again today. Not profitable yet but metrics are getting better. Long long term play, only have about 2k in it right now. Curious on other EV charging play viewpoints (yes I know just invest in VTI and call it a day)
When the market finds a bottom (because I am so good at identifying these things), I may get another chance to buy SNOW. Missed it < $200 last time but will jump in if it gets there again.
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Buy ARKK and get a free Peleton
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Buy ARKK and get a free Peleton
I'll take "Things That Happen to Go-Go Momentum Funds" for $1000, Alex
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The most "exciting" kinds of stocks I buy are AMZN, GOOGL, FB, MSFT and AAPL. I mostly buy blue-chip, dividend-growing companies. So it's interesting hearing these growthier or "speccier" names y'all are discussing.
Market well off today's low. I'll be waiting for TSmith to ring the bell to let me know when we've actually hit a bottom!
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The most "exciting" kinds of stocks I buy are AMZN, GOOGL, FB, MSFT and AAPL. I mostly buy blue-chip, dividend-growing companies. So it's interesting hearing these growthier or "speccier" names y'all are discussing.
Market well off today's low. I'll be waiting for TSmith to ring the bell to let me know when we've actually hit a bottom!
When that bell rings ... I'm going long Dogecoin!
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Yeah, safe to say that crypto's not gonna be for me. I know folks who have made good money trading it, but my gut can't handle that kind of thing.
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Market well off today's low. I'll be waiting for TSmith to ring the bell to let me know when we've actually hit a bottom!
Talk about setting yourself up for disappointment...
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Buy ARKK and get a free Peleton
does the peleton come with a free AED and some nitroglycerin tabs
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does the peleton come with a free AED and some nitroglycerin tabs
Didn't peg you for a Sex and the City fan. Who knew?
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$FB & $SPOT are getting taken to the woodshed and obliterated after hours, yikes.
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Judging by tech lately, give it a day or two and buy. People were loading up on PYPL today
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Judging by tech lately, give it a day or two and buy. People were loading up on PYPL today
Who was loading up on PYPL today? Stock got murdered, down 25%. Selling ruled the day. It's even down another 2% after hours.
$FB & $SPOT are getting taken to the woodshed and obliterated after hours, yikes.
No interest in SPOT but I do have a smallish FB position. Trying to decide if I want to buy on this ... because that was not a very good earnings report.
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Who was loading up on PYPL today? Stock got murdered, down 25%. Selling ruled the day. It's even down another 2% after hours.
Lot of longer term calls being snatch up. Often front runs bigger positions by funds or an activist. Would not be shocked to see an Icahn type insert themselves into the stock in the next few weeks
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Lot of longer term calls being snatch up. Often front runs bigger positions by funds or an activist. Would not be shocked to see an Icahn type insert themselves into the stock in the next few weeks
Interesting.
Lotsa poor retail-investing saps were selling today.
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Once again, this moronic market ignores all sorts of actual fundamental shakiness (inflation, growth numbers, etc...) but then the markets freaks out and sheds tons of points due to macro black swans and the declines occur and people pretend its cause of those fundamentals ::)
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Once again, this moronic market ignores all sorts of actual fundamental shakiness (inflation, growth numbers, etc...) but then the markets freaks out and sheds tons of points due to macro black swans and the declines occur and people pretend its cause of those fundamentals ::)
It's been a casino for a long time.
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Inflation, aina?
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Inflation, aina?
Supply push inflation though.
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Inflation, aina?
Yup. Thanks to decisions by the fed and some of the pandemic bills, the stock market has been artificially inflated for a while.
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I invest in things for the long haul that make sense to me.
Energy, pipeline and railroad stocks do well in times of rising energy costs.
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U.S. Accuses Zero Hedge of Spreading Russian Propaganda
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/us-accuses-financial-website-of-spreading-russian-propaganda
Washington (AP) -- U.S. intelligence officials on Tuesday accused a conservative financial news website with a significant American readership of amplifying Kremlin propaganda and alleged five media outlets targeting Ukrainians have taken direction from Russian spies.
The officials said Zero Hedge, which has 1.2 million Twitter followers, published articles created by Moscow-controlled media that were then shared by outlets and people unaware of their nexus to Russian intelligence.
The officials did not say whether they thought Zero Hedge knew of any links to spy agencies and did not allege direct links between the website and Russia.
In recent months, Zero Hedge has published numerous articles that accused the U.S. of fomenting panic about Ukraine, which now faces the possibility of an invasion by more than 130,000 Russian troops massed on several sides of the country. Some of those articles are listed as being written by people affiliated with the Strategic Culture Foundation.
Recent articles listed as authored by the foundation and published by Zero Hedge include the headlines: "NATO Sliding Towards War Against Russia In Ukraine,” “Americans Need A Conspiracy Theory They Can All Agree On" and “Theater Of Absurd... Pentagon Demands Russia Explain Troops On Russian Soil."
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"Cathie Wood’s flagship fund Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) is down 30% year-to-date and is more wildly volatile than practically any fund on the market. So when Wood was invited onto CNBC’s Halftime Report, she took it as an opportunity to defend the fund and its deflated price, now down to $68.80 from its peak of $155 a year ago.
“We’ve had a significant decline,” Wood said, adding "we do believe innovation is in the bargain basement territory." She noted that while her ETF wasn't performing at its best, her stocks were still "way undervalued" and the recent fund loss was only temporary. Then Zoom gave her 10 minutes to wrap up the interview as the call's 40 free minutes were almost up.
Having Zoom ask if she were "Running out of time?" was probably not a good look for Wood, who has been rapidly buying up shares in Zoom and other tech companies that have dipped since their pandemic heights. Zoom, along with Wood's other big tech holdings in Teladoc Health, Roku, and Roblox, are all down between 20% and 40% year-to-date as fears of rising interest and inflation rates have depressed tech shares."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-went-tv-defend-124127728.html
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"Cathie Wood’s flagship fund Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) is down 30% year-to-date and is more wildly volatile than practically any fund on the market. So when Wood was invited onto CNBC’s Halftime Report, she took it as an opportunity to defend the fund and its deflated price, now down to $68.80 from its peak of $155 a year ago.
“We’ve had a significant decline,” Wood said, adding "we do believe innovation is in the bargain basement territory." She noted that while her ETF wasn't performing at its best, her stocks were still "way undervalued" and the recent fund loss was only temporary. Then Zoom gave her 10 minutes to wrap up the interview as the call's 40 free minutes were almost up.
Having Zoom ask if she were "Running out of time?" was probably not a good look for Wood, who has been rapidly buying up shares in Zoom and other tech companies that have dipped since their pandemic heights. Zoom, along with Wood's other big tech holdings in Teladoc Health, Roku, and Roblox, are all down between 20% and 40% year-to-date as fears of rising interest and inflation rates have depressed tech shares."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-went-tv-defend-124127728.html
Salesperson bordering on con artist.
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Salesperson bordering on con artist.
So any fund manager who overstays their welcome, especially a momentum trader, in a sector/position and/or loses sight of the overall market dynamics is a "con artist"? Come on man.
She made outsized returns cause she was super long in momentum/growth stocks during a historic bull run up/bounce. She's too stubborn to realize the market has changed and she/her positions are in trouble so she's talking up her book. Its pure salesmanship. She's not a CEO of a company lying about products and their developments. Nor is she hiding anything or selling snake oil. There is no con, what she supposed to say? I screwed up and these positions are going to be even more underwater cause our size is too big to unload quickly without tanking them?
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"ARKG, that's the one that's really going to do well this year. 20% gain is the floor."
-- Cathie Wood in early 2021.
ARKG has only lost 57% since then, as she and her ill-equipped team have scurried in and out of one investment after another.
Even after the Fed finally came around and stopped calling inflation "transitory," she still was saying it was no big deal -- and that her ETFs were just the solution!
A couple of weeks ago, she was saying the real bubble was in value stocks -- not in the growth names that she has whiffed on worse than Rob Deer whiffed on curveballs At least Rob Deer hit a home run more than once every year or two.
Sure, maybe she's simply a fast-talking salesperson who has been exposed as a one-trick pony when it comes to stock-picking. (This just in: Another of her faves, ROKU, is down a mere 25.5% today.)
A con is defined as "a swindle in which the victim is persuaded to trust the swindler in some way." I'm guessing many investors would say that applies to Cathie Wood. But because I respect you, Wags, I'll say maybe "con" was too strong a word for me to have used. How about "huckster"?
I'll let Morningstar take us home ...
Wood’s reliance on her instincts to construct the portfolio is a liability. This is a high-risk, benchmark-agnostic portfolio that invests across technology platforms the team thinks will revolutionize how sectors across the globe operate. The firm favors companies that are often unprofitable, highly volatile, and could plummet in tandem. Rather than gauge the portfolio’s aggregate risk exposures and simulate their effects during a variety of market conditions, the firm uses its past as a guide to the future and views risk almost exclusively through the lens of its bottom-up research. The fund lacks well-defined risk controls, which are now more important than ever. As its asset base has swelled … the fund has become less liquid and more vulnerable to severe losses.
… Many of its analysts have come and gone, and most of the nine remaining lack deep industry experience. … ARK’s untested analysts, go-with-your-gut risk-management approach, and bloated asset base raise doubts ...
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Listen, I think Cathie Wood is absolutely a one trick pony. I think it was pretty clear the Emperor had no clothes the minute the market cooled off a bit and ARKK got hammered. Not to mention her ties to the Archegos debacle. But I guess I just don't see it as a swindle. She's not a Bernie Madoff book cooker. She's not an investment advisor who takes peoples funds, says "trust me" and the money disappears. She's just a pretty mediocre stock picker who got lucky when a lot of other retail amateurs did too. I genuinely thinks she believes in her picks and her valuations. I mean look at that Morningstar summation. Thats "this fund is a bunch of inexperienced idiots going off their gut" not "this is some shady business propped up by slick snake oil sales"
But salesmanship is a huge part of the fund game. There are plenty of fund managers who make great gains year after year that you've never heard of, cause establishing a track record takes years and years, if you can't spin those first few years as signs of greatness to come.
If I develop a software product based on where I think a certain market in say, billing and invoicing, is going and I bring it to market and sell people on it. Lots of people buy it. But after a couple years, turns out it isn't all that great, market goes in a different direction, my competitors start to crush me, but I still believe in my product and keep trying to sell it and my belief. Am I con man or a huckster? No, I'm just wrong and probably a little delusional. Thats Cathie Wood, except the little is A LOT.
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A-OK, Wags. Have a good one.
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So any fund manager who overstays their welcome, especially a momentum trader, in a sector/position and/or loses sight of the overall market dynamics is a "con artist"? Come on man.
She made outsized returns cause she was super long in momentum/growth stocks during a historic bull run up/bounce. She's too stubborn to realize the market has changed and she/her positions are in trouble so she's talking up her book. Its pure salesmanship. She's not a CEO of a company lying about products and their developments. Nor is she hiding anything or selling snake oil. There is no con, what she supposed to say? I screwed up and these positions are going to be even more underwater cause our size is too big to unload quickly without tanking them?
My take is that we need to stop deifying traders who get lucky and then take everything they say as gospel. Cathie, Mr. Burry, et al. are wrong as often as they are right.
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So ... what are folks doing today?
I have updated my watch list and will carefully deploy some of my cash, knowing full well that there still could be more market pain ahead.
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So ... what are folks doing today?
I have updated my watch list and will carefully deploy some of my cash, knowing full well that there still could be more market pain ahead.
Losing money, of course. Just buy the way down if you're young.
Oh, and buy Boeing, Raytheon, and Northrop-Grumman.
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Be very wary of people rushing in to buy this bounce
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Sitting tight.
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I'm buying, like normal.
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I've done a little buying so far, adding here and there to positions I already have, mostly "boring" dividend-growing stocks. I did throw a few "hero" limit orders out there, but only a couple hit, and none of my most aggressive ones.
It's been interesting to watch tech stocks bounce back. ADBE, for example, was within $5 of my hero order hitting ... and now it's up 4.5% on the day as I write this. Crazy!
The most interesting thing for me today: I was looking through my various accounts shortly after the market opened, trying to decide what I might want to put in an offer on, and I see that one of my utilities, SJI, is up 40%+. I thought it was a mistake ... but I looked it up and, lo and behold, it's being acquired by a private equity company and will be taken private, and they're paying a huge premium to do it. I have a pretty nice stake in SJI, so this was a very pleasant surprise. If they wait till after 9/30/22 to close, I can even have all proceeds classified as LTCG, which would be sweet.
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Bought Llyods Bank (LYG) as it is getting killed along with other European banks
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AMZN with the 20-1 stock split and a $10B buy back. SHEESH. Almost touched 3100 AH from a 2785 close.
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AMZN with the 20-1 stock split and a $10B buy back. SHEESH. Almost touched 3100 AH from a 2785 close.
I'm surprised the big boys aren't on acquisition sprees with the big hit to growth-stage companies. I suppose structuring those deals can take time.
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AMZN has been range-bound for closing in on 2 years now. I don't know that a $10B buyback does a lot with a $1.4T market cap.
Someone does need to buy TWTR, however, and properly monetize its huge user base. AMZN is effectively in the search space now and could marry that with TWTR, as well as incorporating it into Prime.
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Buffet and Berkshire are now ahead of the S&P 500 on a 1-Year, 2-Year, and 5-Year basis, the last by roughly 17%
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Buffet and Berkshire are now ahead of the S&P 500 on a 1-Year, 2-Year, and 5-Year basis, the last by roughly 17%
Buy some BRK.B and go to the annual meeting. It's worth the experience to go at least once.
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Buy some BRK.B and go to the annual meeting. It's worth the experience to go at least once.
Still haven't made it there. Really need to before...well, you know.
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AMZN has been range-bound for closing in on 2 years now. I don't know that a $10B buyback does a lot with a $1.4T market cap.
Someone does need to buy TWTR, however, and properly monetize its huge user base. AMZN is effectively in the search space now and could marry that with TWTR, as well as incorporating it into Prime.
Musk taking a stake in TWTR wasn't the catalyst I was expecting. Good to know that Elon doesn't know what free speech is either.
"Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town square, failing to adhere to free speech principles fundamentally undermines democracy. What should be done?," Musk said in the tweet.
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Musk taking a stake in TWTR wasn't the catalyst I was expecting. Good to know that Elon doesn't know what free speech is either.
"Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town square, failing to adhere to free speech principles fundamentally undermines democracy. What should be done?," Musk said in the tweet.
FWIW, Twitter has been shadowbanning and selectively deleting tweets for years. Its not "cancel culture", its selective moderation/editing.
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FWIW, Twitter has been shadowbanning and selectively deleting tweets for years. Its not "cancel culture", its selective moderation/editing.
Yes. I agree with the policy.
There are plenty of other platforms that people are free to post violent rhetoric, hate speech, and the like. Making TWTR even more of a cesspool than it already is by allowing that crap isn't in the public interest or their business interest IMO.
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Yes. I agree with the policy.
There are plenty of other platforms that people are free to post violent rhetoric, hate speech, and the like. Making TWTR even more of a cesspool than it already is by allowing that crap isn't in the public interest or their business interest IMO.
Thats the rosiest view of it. Its not all Q-Anon MAGA nonsense thats being censored. Your profile and posts are purely at the whim of some moderator at Twitter. Ive had friends who are very left of center shadowbanned for sports/music related posts/exchanges and no history of aggressive or offensive rhetoric. Ive had follows who lean conservative and were not rabid Trumpers who were locked out of accounts for weeks for saying the equivalent of "well this policy/proposal is f-ing stupid".
TWTR hides behind "we're anti-hate speech" but then allows tons of it to go on and randomly enforces other stuff. Its not done by an efficient algorithm and there is no consistency to it.
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Thats the rosiest view of it. Its not all Q-Anon MAGA nonsense thats being censored. Your profile and posts are purely at the whim of some moderator at Twitter. Ive had friends who are very left of center shadowbanned for sports/music related posts/exchanges and no history of aggressive or offensive rhetoric. Ive had follows who lean conservative and were not rabid Trumpers who were locked out of accounts for weeks for saying the equivalent of "well this policy/proposal is f-ing stupid".
TWTR hides behind "we're anti-hate speech" but then allows tons of it to go on and randomly enforces other stuff. Its not done by an efficient algorithm and there is no consistency to it.
I agree it's not consistent but it's not like Twitter has any legal responsibility to do something different. So then it's about whether they have a social responsibility and if so, what is it? That can be dictated by the market and whatever their company ethics are, and that's more or less what it is.
I think it's all pretty toxic but if people (like me) don't like Twitter, they can simply elect not to use it.
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Thats the rosiest view of it. Its not all Q-Anon MAGA nonsense thats being censored. Your profile and posts are purely at the whim of some moderator at Twitter. Ive had friends who are very left of center shadowbanned for sports/music related posts/exchanges and no history of aggressive or offensive rhetoric. Ive had follows who lean conservative and were not rabid Trumpers who were locked out of accounts for weeks for saying the equivalent of "well this policy/proposal is f-ing stupid".
TWTR hides behind "we're anti-hate speech" but then allows tons of it to go on and randomly enforces other stuff. Its not done by an efficient algorithm and there is no consistency to it.
TOS enforcement be like that
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I agree it's not consistent but it's not like Twitter has any legal responsibility to do something different. So then it's about whether they have a social responsibility and if so, what is it? That can be dictated by the market and whatever their company ethics are, and that's more or less what it is.
I think it's all pretty toxic but if people (like me) don't like Twitter, they can simply elect not to use it.
Right.
And when people say stuff like "Twitter is the de facto town square," it's not only not accurate, but it's just shorthand for "I don't like to be moderated."
Well...tough.
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TOS enforcement be like that
Which is fine, but don't pretend to be something you're not. I have no issue with Twitter doing what they are well in their right to do. They just tried to position themselves otherwise for awhile, intentionally or not, so that it seemed off brand.
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Which is fine, but don't pretend to be something you're not. I have no issue with Twitter doing what they are well in their right to do. They just tried to position themselves otherwise for awhile, intentionally or not, so that it seemed off brand.
Most platforms have had or will have this problem at scale. The challenge is that moderation isn't built-in from the get-go. It's expensive when your only motives are profit motives. Then, though, at a certain scale the complete lack of moderation becomes a liability so your legal team & board make you enforce some rules of decorum. What do you do? You spend the bare minimum to spin up a moderation team with very minimal oversight. They're only there, after all, as a CYA dog-and-pony show.
Best case the moderation team operates quietly and nobody really notices them. Worst case they're a constant PR nightmare. Usually, it's somewhere in between. Facebook/Reddit/Twitter/etc spend as little as possible on moderation and it's only to cover their keesters. Shoddy implementation is a feature, not a bug.
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Elon gonna fix Twitter
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Costco (COST) had one of its best months ever, and its stock has hit an all-time high, breaking $600 for the first time. It looks WAAAAY overvalued, but it always does. It's the best business model in all of retail, as folks pay membership fees just for ther right to spend money there. I was just at my local Costco yesterday, and it was packed - on a Wednesday afternoon.
In polls, consumers claim they are struggling and are very worried about inflation. In reality, consumers are spending money like drunk sailors, not just at Costco but also at other stores, at restaurants, on cars (when they can get them), on houses, everything.
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Costco (COST) had one of its best months ever, and its stock has hit an all-time high, breaking $600 for the first time. It looks WAAAAY overvalued, but it always does. It's the best business model in all of retail, as folks pay membership fees just for ther right to spend money there. I was just at my local Costco yesterday, and it was packed - on a Wednesday afternoon.
In polls, consumers claim they are struggling and are very worried about inflation. In reality, consumers are spending money like drunk sailors, not just at Costco but also at other stores, at restaurants, on cars (when they can get them), on houses, everything.
This dichotomy reminds me very much of the self-appraisal driving ability dichotomy.
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Who is going to be more aware of rising prices than those who spend a lot of money?
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Who is going to be more aware of rising prices than those who spend a lot of money?
I spend lots of money but it seems to me that stocks are on sale. Buy buy buy.
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Yahoo Finance Morning Brief (which, until the last two days, has been unrelentingly bearish):
The most bullish story in the stock market right now
Before tensions escalated between Ukraine and Russia in February, a bullish stock market story had been unfolding: Wall Street analysts were revising up their forecasts for 2022 and 2023 corporate earnings.
Since then, geopolitical risks spiked, becoming the top concern among investors. The stock market got rocked, sending the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to a low of 4,114 on February 24.
Meanwhile, inflation data continued to confirm prices were rising at a troubling rate, which caused Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues to signal that they were willing to get more aggressive in tightening monetary policy.
Despite these headwinds, something surprising happened: Analysts continued to revise their forecasts for earnings higher.
According to FactSet, analysts expect the S&P 500 to earn $227.80 per share in 2022. This estimate is 2% higher than the $223.43 expected as of December 31, 2021.
Yes, the upward revision is modest. But it follows all of the new concerns that have emerged since the beginning of the year.
Some — not all — of this resilience can be explained by energy producers’ earnings, which have been bolstered by rising energy costs.
“A significant portion of the upgrade comes from the Energy sector (+2.0pp), while companies that are impacted by higher energy costs (-0.5pp) and those exposed to European (-0.2pp) have been minor drags,” Binky Chadha, chief U.S. equity strategist for Deutsche Bank, wrote on Tuesday. “Excluding the impact of these effects, full year estimates are still up +0.8%.”
So, what’s happening here?
It’s simple: The economy continues to be in great shape, supported by massive tailwinds.
Among other things, businesses and consumers have very healthy finances. Businesses continue to invest aggressively in their operations. Consumers — despite having gripes about inflation — continue to spend on goods and services. Consumer finances have been bolstered by $2.5 trillion in excess savings, which has allowed companies facing higher costs to preserve profit margins by raising prices.
Of course, we’re talking about expectations for earnings. And these expectations are sure to get updated as companies announce their quarterly results in the coming weeks. The lingering question: Will these expectations continue to get revised up, or will they finally begin to get revised down?
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Securites fraud and market manipulation, it would be nice if the man-child was ever held accountable.
Elon Musk targets Twitter with $41 billion cash takeover offer
https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musk-offers-buy-twitter-5420-per-share-2022-04-14/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
Hilariously, the market knows his offer is bullsh!t as the price hasn't budged, though if his fanbois jump in it still could. Either way, the calls I wrote at a $60 strike should expire worthless.
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Securites fraud and market manipulation, it would be nice if the man-child was ever held accountable.
Elon Musk targets Twitter with $41 billion cash takeover offer
https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musk-offers-buy-twitter-5420-per-share-2022-04-14/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
Hilariously, the market knows his offer is bullsh!t as the price hasn't budged, though if his fanbois jump in it still could. Either way, the calls I wrote at a $60 strike should expire worthless.
Market manipulation? Thats dramatic. He didn't tweet it. He didn't flippantly say it on IG Live. He wrote it in a letter to the board and it was released in a regulatory filing. His stake in Twitter is worth $3B, give or take. A 10-20% jump gives him less than half a billion in gains. I'm fairly confident he's not in this to make a quick buck. Regardless about what you feel about his actions with TSLA stock, its a bit different.
Its all bluster to try and get Twitter to cave to his demands or let him control it. Which are tactics that have been on for decades to the days of LBOs and corporate raiders.
There false rumors that spike and fade stocks every week. As much as he taunts the SEC, if he actually crossed lines, they would be salivating at a chance to slap at him.
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Market manipulation? Thats dramatic. He didn't tweet it. He didn't flippantly say it on IG Live. He wrote it in a letter to the board and it was released in a regulatory filing. His stake in Twitter is worth $3B, give or take. A 10-20% jump gives him less than half a billion in gains. I'm fairly confident he's not in this to make a quick buck. Regardless about what you feel about his actions with TSLA stock, its a bit different.
Its all bluster to try and get Twitter to cave to his demands or let him control it. Which are tactics that have been on for decades to the days of LBOs and corporate raiders.
There false rumors that spike and fade stocks every week. As much as he taunts the SEC, if he actually crossed lines, they would be salivating at a chance to slap at him.
The manipulation started with him "forgetting" to file his 5% ownership stake on time, then inaccurately saying he was a passive investor, which allowed him to accumulate stock for $165M less than he could have if he had done it legally. There is most definitely also a large ego element to this, but he does it because he can get away with it, with at most a $10M hand slap. He gets his jollies and pockets an illegal $155M, all with no real repercussions. Why? Because he is rich, he can, and it amuses him.
Did you really dismissively write that he'll only make $500M by pumping the stock?
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The manipulation started with him "forgetting" to file his 5% ownership stake on time, then inaccurately saying he was a passive investor, which allowed him to accumulate stock for $165M less than he could have if he had done it legally. There is most definitely also a large ego element to this, but he does it because he can get away with it, with at most a $10M hand slap. He gets his jollies and pockets an illegal $155M, all with no real repercussions. Why? Because he is rich, he can, and it amuses him.
Did you really dismissively write that he'll only make $500M by pumping the stock?
Yes, cause its a legitimate point and it needs situational context. Like I said, he's worth $250B+. $500MM in a pump is the equivalent of someone worth $10MM making under $20K. It doesn't move the needle. $5B? Ok maybe thats a different discussion, but this was just not significant in the net worth/meglomania discussion.
Its ego, its chaos, its amusement, its not some sort of gambit to make quick money. He could do it far more effectively and on a great scale with TSLA if that was really his goal. Or with other tech companies.
I'm not a Musk fanboy, but I don't share the blind hatred and fury at him that others do which lacks context and understanding.
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Yes, cause its a legitimate point and it needs situational context. Like I said, he's worth $250B+. $500MM in a pump is the equivalent of someone worth $10MM making under $20K. It doesn't move the needle. $5B? Ok maybe thats a different discussion, but this was just not significant in the net worth/meglomania discussion.
Its ego, its chaos, its amusement, its not some sort of gambit to make quick money. He could do it far more effectively and on a great scale with TSLA if that was really his goal. Or with other tech companies.
I'm not a Musk fanboy, but I don't share the blind hatred and fury at him that others do which lacks context and understanding.
Yep. t doesn't move the needle much if ar all. I understand the antipathy towards Musk and other mega-billionaires but if you tax the crap out of them wouldn't they move their money elsewhere? I still don't really get these "unrealized capital gains" taxes that have been mentioned here and there.
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Sorry guys, but IMO your responses are exactly the problem. You are both dismissing $500M of illegal gains as no big deal because it doesn't represent a large enough, in your opinions, percentage of his net worth.
Why do the ultra-wealthy get to play by a completely different set of rules? Further, as I said before, Musk does this crap because he can, no one ever holds him accountable...and you are both OK with that.
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Sorry guys, but IMO your responses are exactly the problem. You are both dismissing $500M of illegal gains as no big deal because it doesn't represent a large enough, in your opinions, percentage of his net worth.
Why do the ultra-wealthy get to play by a completely different set of rules? Further, as I said before, Musk does this crap because he can, no one ever holds him accountable...and you are both OK with that.
You're not responding to JWags' point about others manipulating the market.
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You're not responding to JWags' point about others manipulating the market.
My response is exactly the same: shouldn't they be held accountable? If not, why not?
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My response is exactly the same: shouldn't they be held accountable? If not, why not?
People should be held accountable for insider trading. I'm no expert but it seems to me stock manipulation of some sort is crazy ubiquitous. I just don't know how that can be controlled. Maybe I'm too cynical.
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Sorry guys, but IMO your responses are exactly the problem. You are both dismissing $500M of illegal gains as no big deal because it doesn't represent a large enough, in your opinions, percentage of his net worth.
Why do the ultra-wealthy get to play by a completely different set of rules? Further, as I said before, Musk does this crap because he can, no one ever holds him accountable...and you are both OK with that.
But I didn't say that at all. I never said it wasn't a big deal, I said it wasn't his motivation. Manipulating the market for personal gain, at that level, wasn't motivation. I would dismiss similarly it if it was some other Forbes list member worth $265MM involved in a situation that would net him $500K.
And this stuff happens at funds where a PM uses rumors to try and pump and dump their position to get another $200K tacked to their bonus at the end of the year. Or one of the banks releases a "research report" with an upgrade/downgrade to spike or fade a position they hold or one of the companies they do I Banking work for.
I never said I'm ok with it. As someone who is active in the market and who really enjoys the market and its dynamics, I am very open and honest about the fact that its broken and there needs to be changes. But its not just the "ultra wealthy" that are doing it, or benefiting from it. If people want to do something about it, then great. I just side eye punitive hissy fits complaining about the specific wealthy people doing it and wanting them to be punished. Cause it won't fix anything and will just give people some social media victory dance klout.
Look at Eliot Spitzer. Its not like he created some lasting legacy of fundamental change and shifts, he just got a couple of scalps to champion and push his political career.
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Having already stated that others should also be held accountable, why specifically Musk? Well, he's 1) probably the most famous person in the U.S., 2) is certainly the wealthiest, and 3) is the most brazen with waving his middle finger around and daring anyone to do anything about it. Sure, the SEC could go after your theoretical fund manager, but that will get a paragraph in the WSJ. With finite resources it makes sense to go after the biggest offenders and prosecuting Musk might actually have some deterrent effect. ("Sup, Peter Thiel?")
But I am going to strongly disagree with you that profit wasn't also a significant motive. Do billionaires ever get tired of making money? Particularly in Musk's case were it also stroke his ego and allowed him to play the system? And while neither of us can know Musk's mind with certainty, here's my supporting evidence:
Musk could have accumulated his 5%, filed his paperwork, and still indulged in his ego stroke, amused himself, spun up the chaos, and made his asinine tweets and Twitter polls and generally continue to act like the pre-pubescent twat that seems to be his primary modus operandi these days.
But he didn't. Instead, he intentionally failed to file his 13D when he legally required to do so, and when he did file it he was intentionally misleading by filing as a passive rather than active investor. Why? Be doing so, he was about to continue to accumulate shares in the high 30s/low 40s rather than at 50+ which the stock went to when the filing came out, thus manipulating the market on the order of $165M. You don't do that if profit isn't a motive.
And that isn't a victimless crime. He stole that money from existing shareholders who legally should have known Musk was accumulating shares. You can give it other more genteel names, but he stole that money.
He could still have indulged himself in all the other bullcrap if he had filed his 13D when he was legally required to do so, but he didn't. Because Profit. I suspect Musk thinks it is hilarious that he has the power to manipulate the market and cause chaos, he'll never be held accountable for it in any meaningful manner, and he can turn a nine-figure profit at the same time.
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Media Commentary supporting Mr.Musk
https://www.foxnews.com/media/elon-musk-twitter-buy-caitlyn-jenner-hannity
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Media Commentary supporting Mr.Musk
https://www.foxnews.com/media/elon-musk-twitter-buy-caitlyn-jenner-hannity
Lol
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It's cute that Jack Dorsey blames the Twitter BoD for the company's complete failure to take advantage of the platform's popularity and success the entire time he was (part-time) CEO.
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I blame Putin.
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He should be blamed for many things.
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He should be blamed for many things.
And the fun thing is, both sides can say it making its truthfulness inconsequential
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From the WSJ:
No more free lunch at Goldman Sachs. The bank told employees yesterday that it would soon end the pandemic-era perk of free lunches for those who come into the office. Softening the blow, the bank also plans to distribute 15 percent of the carried interest of its private equity funds among top executives, a perk worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
Thank goodness GS isn't going to deprive its top execs - some were on the precipice of only making 7 figures! Oh, the humanity! I hope they somehow can pull together the funds to buy a hot dog and pretzel from the vendor outside the building.
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Too bad the BoD's of Tesla and SpaceX can't rein on their 12-year-old douchebag leader.
(https://images2.imgbox.com/c8/64/xoRUddsh_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/xoRUddsh)
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Fidelity’s Retirement Savings Assessment looked at dedicated savers, individuals who were putting away more than 10% of their income, and found that they had a Retirement Score of 99. On the other hand, the median score for a person saving less than 10% was 68. Dedicated savers of all ages had higher median scores but the differences were particularly large for younger savers who had more time to put away money during their careers.
(https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/images/Viewpoints/II/6_habits_success_2020_info.jpg)
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AAPL with another solid quarter even in the face of supply chain issues. Pretty amazing. EPS up 8.6% YoY, bumped the dividend, authorized more buybacks. Execution is outstanding.
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Amazon is plunging pre-market hours.
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Amazon is plunging pre-market hours.
They had yet another incredible quarter, but guidance was less than anticipated. When you have the kind of multiple AMZN does, you're priced almost for perfection. Such price action is pretty common for high-valuation tech names; for example, TSLA declined 11.6% on Jan. 27.
If AMZN declines that much once the market opens, it could be pretty attractively priced if one believes in the long-term success of the business.
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They had yet another incredible quarter, but guidance was less than anticipated. When you have the kind of multiple AMZN does, you're priced almost for perfection. Such price action is pretty common for high-valuation tech names; for example, TSLA declined 11.6% on Jan. 27.
I was thinking about it....although I'm not sure we have bottomed out yet.
If AMZN declines that much once the market opens, it could be pretty attractively priced if one believes in the long-term success of the business.
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Greater Fool Theory in action:
Bored Ape Metaverse Frenzy Raises Millions, Crashes Ethereum
Users scramble for NFT deeds to 55,000 plots of virtual land
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-01/bored-ape-metaverse-frenzy-raises-millions-disrupts-ethereum
Yuga Labs, the creator of the popular Bored Apes Yacht Club collection of NFTs, launched a sale Saturday of virtual land related to its highly anticipated metaverse project, raising about $320 million worth of cryptocurrency in the largest offering of its kind. Demand was so strong that activity related to the event caused ripple effects across the entire Ethereum blockchain, disrupting activity and sending transaction fees soaring.
Each plot cost a buyer around $5,800 based on ApeCoin’s price of $19 as of Saturday, plus transaction costs, or “gas fees,” in Ether, which skyrocketed after the sale went live at 9 p.m. New York time as the land grab attracted heavy demand. Transaction costs just to mint Otherdeed NFTs after the launch reached $123 million, with each Otherdeed requiring about $6,000, or 2 Ether, in transaction fees to mint, according to data from Etherscan -- or more than the price of the deed itself.
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Another beat and raise from CVS.
I do think it is pretty much fully valued here after being up +38% YTD. Next catalyst will be restarting dividend increases either with the Q4 earning report or before the Q1 dividend declaration.
Another boring beat and raise from CVS. They increased dividends 10% with this quarter. With the pullback to the high 90's, I think they are now 10% - 15% undervalued.
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Fed with a .5% raise. Mr. Market seems to be happy there wasn't a more aggressive surprise.
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I hope Powell & Co are right that they can slow things down without causing a recession. They are making a big bet on being right and time will tell. While I might be doom and gloom on the economy, I hope as hell the Fed is right.
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Fed with a .5% raise. Mr. Market seems to be happy there wasn't a more aggressive surprise.
Baked in.
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I hope Powell & Co are right that they can slow things down without causing a recession. They are making a big bet on being right and time will tell. While I might be doom and gloom on the economy, I hope as hell the Fed is right.
I don't bank on Powell being right on anything but how to turn on the BRRR machines
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Wags
I am betting on some type of inflation stimulus to be announced over the next couple of months in an attempt to sway some votes in November and that will keep Jay busy. I have big doubts that he is doing the right thing, but hope I am wrong. I always say that watching your own business/career is best visibility into the economy and I am seeing red flags on weekly basis.
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Wags
I am betting on some type of inflation stimulus to be announced over the next couple of months in an attempt to sway some votes in November and that will keep Jay busy. I have big doubts that he is doing the right thing, but I am wrong. I always say that watching your own business/career is best visibility into the economy and I am seeing red flags on weekly basis.
In all honesty. The bolded is needed right now.
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It doesn't sound like the Fed has any real plan for inflation unless I missed something.
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It doesn't sound like the Fed has any real plan for inflation unless I missed something.
I mean, they raised interest rates today…
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I mean, they raised interest rates today…
As they always do but we're at a 40 yr high. I don't think incremental raises will do a whole lot. We also have a severe labor shortage.
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Whatever they do will disproportionately impact poor/low income.
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Shipping is backing up something fierce outside Chinese ports, with all of the lockdowns they are implementing.
Likely to see another supply chain mess in the near future.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1522018798538477568?t=QJ3kkVqmyVoIX7ajPE9y-w&s=19 (https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1522018798538477568?t=QJ3kkVqmyVoIX7ajPE9y-w&s=19)
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Baked in.
If you mean that the market expected the exact raise the Fed made, I agree. But Powell's press conference definitely seemed to calm/please investors. I mean, a 3% advance for SPX is not business as usual.
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Ziggy,
I can only add firsthand info on the effects of the lockdown, but our revenues took about 15% hit in April. We have a nice project and supply a Diesel engine component to a supplier to Cummins and two containers that were to ship on March 28th are now scheduled for May 20th and I will believe it when I see it. Our client has about 80% of the business on this part and we are getting pressure every day to put our second supplier in China to increase capacity. Supplier two is in southern China and can make more parts, but buys the flange from greater Shanghai.
By the way, good share from Ian Bremmer. He is another guy that knows his stuff and tells the straight story.
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As they always do but we're at a 40 yr high. I don't think incremental raises will do a whole lot. We also have a severe labor shortage.
The solution to that is to allow more immigrants in.
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Shipping is backing up something fierce outside Chinese ports, with all of the lockdowns they are implementing.
Likely to see another supply chain mess in the near future.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1522018798538477568?t=QJ3kkVqmyVoIX7ajPE9y-w&s=19 (https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1522018798538477568?t=QJ3kkVqmyVoIX7ajPE9y-w&s=19)
Yup, and we will see the effects in a few weeks. Shipping container companies are salivating.
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In all honesty. The bolded is needed right now.
Printing more money fixes inflation how?
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Hards
I would normally agree with you on feeling the effects of the lockdown in the upcoming weeks, but these are crazy times. I believe businesses are already feeling the effects and the consumer is lagging way behind. The entire supply chain mess has been impossible to figure out and I still do not feel the previous issues were 100% baked into cost of goods. I am far from a logistics expert, but containers costing 4-6x times normal cost and taking an extra 30-60 days should have translated into much higher costs than we have seen, IMO. I have accused the Chinese of funny accounting for 20+ years and now I wonder about our accounting in the USA. I guess I have grown very cynical on the topic after dealing with it over the past two years.
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The solution to that is to allow more immigrants in.
We're doing well on this front.
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We're doing well on this front.
No, not really. A lot of people want to build a wall, or make people jump through countless hoops to become citizens. We could and should be doing much more to increase immigration to the US.
Remember when the Irish, Italians, Germans and Poles just showed up at the port and came into the US with nothing but the clothes on their backs and a dream of a better life... and the US gave that to them? You know, pretty much everyone here at scoop can track a family member that just showed up. My great great grandfather probably snuck in from Canada.
What's the difference now? The ones coming over the border for a better life are brown... so now it's a problem. Makes no sense.
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Hards
I would normally agree with you on feeling the effects of the lockdown in the upcoming weeks, but these are crazy times. I believe businesses are already feeling the effects and the consumer is lagging way behind. The entire supply chain mess has been impossible to figure out and I still do not feel the previous issues were 100% baked into cost of goods. I am far from a logistics expert, but containers costing 4-6x times normal cost and taking an extra 30-60 days should have translated into much higher costs than we have seen, IMO. I have accused the Chinese of funny accounting for 20+ years and now I wonder about our accounting in the USA. I guess I have grown very cynical on the topic after dealing with it over the past two years.
No, I think we agree. When I said 'we', I meant the consumer.
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No, not really. A lot of people want to build a wall, or make people jump through countless hoops to become citizens. We could and should be doing much more to increase immigration to the US.
Remember when the Irish, Italians, Germans and Poles just showed up at the port and came into the US with nothing but the clothes on their backs and a dream of a better life... and the US gave that to them? You know, pretty much everyone here at scoop can track a family member that just showed up. My great great grandfather probably snuck in from Canada.
What's the difference now? The ones coming over the border for a better life are brown... so now it's a problem. Makes no sense.
It being a problem makes a lot of sense, Hards. Racism is a scourge in America.
Agree with you about earlier immigration, though you might be romanticizing it a little. It wasn't that easy to get the right to reside in the U.S., and the Irish, Italians, European Jews, Asians and others were scorned, shoehorned into ghettos, mocked and harshly discriminated against for decades. Anti-Semitism and anti-Asian behavior is still disappointingly strong here.
But I totally agree with your overall thesis. We are darn close to full employment right now in America -- we're nearing a point where just about every American resident who wants a job can get a job. However, although minimum wage has effectively gone up substantially, even doubled in a lot of places, we just can't fill those jobs because not enough Americans want them.
One of the big economic effects of the pandemic was the number of late-50s and early-60s people leaving the workplace for good -- millions of people who in 2019 were thinking they'd give it 3 or 5 or 7 more years just decided, "Screw it, I'm retired." We need to replace those people in the workforce, and we don't have enough ready, willing and able Americans to do it.
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Generally, I agree. But we let those folks in before we treated them poorly. Right now, we aren't letting them in, and we're caging them and treating them all like criminals.
It's despicable.
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Printing more money fixes inflation how?
Whatever they do will disproportionately impact poor/low income.
Jesmu84 already hit the main point. Inflation is hurting the poor and low income that can't afford to live at the current prices. They need a stimulus.
More money for the poor/low income or even middle class is not driving inflation right now.
Inflation in part is being driven by free money for big business (read firms buying up all real estate driving up home prices, and equivalently in a lot of markets buying up old affordable apartment buildings and replacing them with ones that have double the rent). And inflation is being driven by supply chain issues, leading to big business being able to raise prices to increase profits.
Increasing the Fed rate will probably slow the first component. It will have no effect on the latter. In the meantime, the bottom 50% of the nation will suffer greatly, while the elite relish.
Giving a stimulus to that bottom 50% will not affect inflation.
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Generally, I agree. But we let those folks in before we treated them poorly. Right now, we aren't letting them in, and we're caging them and treating them all like criminals.
It's despicable.
I have a sign in my basement that says 'Irish need not apply'.
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I have a sign in my basement that says 'Irish need not apply'.
The line form Blazing Saddles where the guy says "Ok, Ok, OK, the blacks can stay, but we don't want the Irish."
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Speaking of the Irish, it is very funny that I have always had bias against the Irish, yet my four favorite friends are all Irish and I love them like brothers. I have refused to attend Irish Fest, with exception of one of the four being married at Irish Fest, try to avoid Irish bars and count on one hand the number of times I have drank on St. Patrick's Day. In a strange way I feel similar feelings to the Irish that I do for UW alums. Ironically, I really do want to visit Ireland before I die and know I will love it.
I think I have always been jealous of the Irish because my grandparents came from Eastern Euro and our heritage always seemed strange to most people. I am still waiting for a parade for being Lithuanian/Serbian and think it will be a while before I have my day.
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I have a sign in my basement that says 'Irish need not apply'.
I understand. But you're missing the part where they were allowed off the boats.
And the animus towards the Irish and other white immigrants dissipated rather quickly.
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Speaking of the Irish, it is very funny that I have always had bias against the Irish, yet my four favorite friends are all Irish and I love them like brothers. I have refused to attend Irish Fest, with exception of one of the four being married at Irish Fest, try to avoid Irish bars and count on one hand the number of times I have drank on St. Patrick's Day. In a strange way I feel similar feelings to the Irish that I do for UW alums. Ironically, I really do want to visit Ireland before I die and know I will love it.
I think I have always been jealous of the Irish because my grandparents came from Eastern Euro and our heritage always seemed strange to most people. I am still waiting for a parade for being Lithuanian/Serbian and think it will be a while before I have my day.
I'm sure the Irish friends you have are jealous of your ability to grow facial hair.
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Jesmu84 already hit the main point. Inflation is hurting the poor and low income that can't afford to live at the current prices. They need a stimulus.
More money for the poor/low income or even middle class is not driving inflation right now.
Inflation in part is being driven by free money for big business (read firms buying up all real estate driving up home prices, and equivalently in a lot of markets buying up old affordable apartment buildings and replacing them with ones that have double the rent). And inflation is being driven by supply chain issues, leading to big business being able to raise prices to increase profits.
Increasing the Fed rate will probably slow the first component. It will have no effect on the latter. In the meantime, the bottom 50% of the nation will suffer greatly, while the elite relish.
Giving a stimulus to that bottom 50% will not affect inflation.
But it will. More dollary doos printed = inflation. One way or another.
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Hards
I am on par with facial hair with my Irish friends. I do tan easier 8-)
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Hards
I am on par with facial hair with my Irish friends. I do tan easier 8-)
My uncle is a Milwaukee Serb and has a majestic mustachio. Though he is starting to lose a bit of the hair on top of his dome.
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No, not really. A lot of people want to build a wall, or make people jump through countless hoops to become citizens. We could and should be doing much more to increase immigration to the US.
Remember when the Irish, Italians, Germans and Poles just showed up at the port and came into the US with nothing but the clothes on their backs and a dream of a better life... and the US gave that to them? You know, pretty much everyone here at scoop can track a family member that just showed up. My great great grandfather probably snuck in from Canada.
What's the difference now? The ones coming over the border for a better life are brown... so now it's a problem. Makes no sense.
So we should just allow it and not worry about illegal immigration? That's your take? I think more people than not are generally for legal immigration and making it easier to become American citizens. Especially those that have been here for years.
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I understand. But you're missing the part where they were allowed off the boats.
And the animus towards the Irish and other white immigrants dissipated rather quickly.
I'm not missing it at all. I agree with your position, both from an economic and humanitarian perspective.
My point is that America has long hated immigrants. Even though the shining city on the hill image and the Statue of Liberty say otherwise. The dream of America from afar is to leave behind political and economic oppression for opportunity. Immigrants have always had to learn new a new language, a new culture, had to make their way in a strange land. America has always tried to resist them.
The current version of Xenophbic anti-immigration is as wrongheaded as ever. America has unfilled jobs. Supply chains that are only going to be loosened by inexpensive labor. There is only one viable source of inexpensive labor right now.
Simple logic.
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Hards
I am having cocktails with Milwaukee Serbian royalty today, what is your uncles last name? If he is active at St. Sava’s my friend will know him.
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So we should just allow it and not worry about illegal immigration? That's your take? I think more people than not are generally for legal immigration and making it easier to become American citizens. Especially those that have been here for years.
I would be perfectly happy with increased border security in return for allowing additional legal immigration, and giving people who aren't citizens a path to citizenship that doesn't require them to leave the country and "go to the back of the line" or some such nonsense. But tower is right - a lot of people wouldn't like that.
Countries that allow immigration have historically been way more prosperous than those who don't. It would help our economy and our society tremendously.
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So we should just allow it and not worry about illegal immigration? That's your take? I think more people than not are generally for legal immigration and making it easier to become American citizens. Especially those that have been here for years.
Generally speaking, yes. People who show up on the border should be allowed in and be required to report to an immigration official every six months. The US govt. should try to place immigrants in jobs, or direct them to job opportunities. Much like a system that we use for people who are transitioning out of the penal system on parole. If they're arrested for a violent crime at ANY point in their first five years in the country they should be deported.
We need to do a better job of getting people to be Americans instead of putting up barriers and having people live for a decade in limbo.
I agree with you that more people generally want more legal immigration, yet nothing is ever done about it.
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Generally speaking, yes. People who show up on the border should be allowed in and be required to report to an immigration official every six months. The US govt. should try to place immigrants in jobs, or direct them to job opportunities. Much like a system that we use for people who are transitioning out of the penal system on parole. If they're arrested for a violent crime at ANY point in their first five years in the country they should be deported.
We need to do a better job of getting people to be Americans instead of putting up barriers and having people live for a decade in limbo.
I agree with you that more people generally want more legal immigration, yet nothing is ever done about it.
My mom came to the United States in 1978 from Ireland and became a citizen in 1990. I have a friend from Indonesia that still cannot get citizenship and he's been here 18 yrs. The system has been a problem for a long time. It sounds like what you're suggesting is essentially an open border and a 5 yr window to become a productive American citizen.. So, how many people would we need at the Southern Border to vet anyone crossing?
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I would be perfectly happy with increased border security in return for allowing additional legal immigration, and giving people who aren't citizens a path to citizenship that doesn't require them to leave the country and "go to the back of the line" or some such nonsense. But tower is right - a lot of people wouldn't like that.
Countries that allow immigration have historically been way more prosperous than those who don't. It would help our economy and our society tremendously.
True. Which countries have been more prosperous than us that have allowed immigration historically or more recently?
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Fed with a .5% raise. Mr. Market seems to be happy there wasn't a more aggressive surprise.
Apparently the market is not thrilled today. :(
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My mom came to the United States in 1978 from Ireland and became a citizen in 1990. I have a friend from Indonesia that still cannot get citizenship and he's been here 18 yrs. The system has been a problem for a long time. It sounds like what you're suggesting is essentially an open border and a 5 yr window to become a productive American citizen.. So, how many people would we need at the Southern Border to vet anyone crossing?
Enough to manage the people who are entering. If need be, supplement the Border Patrol with National Guard members until more can be hired.
Vetting process should be VERY simple and straight forward.
18 years to become a citizen is flat out wrong of our country to do.
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True. Which countries have been more prosperous than us that have allowed immigration historically or more recently?
I don't know if they are "more prosperous," but countries with migrants making up more than 20% of the population that are similar to the US (well developed, diverse economies) include Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Sweden. Countries with similar percentages to the United States (about 15%) include Germany, the UK and bunch of western European countries.
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I don't know if they are "more prosperous," but countries with migrants making up more than 20% of the population that are similar to the US (well developed, diverse economies) include Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Sweden. Countries with similar percentages to the United States (about 15%) include Germany, the UK and bunch of western European countries.
I think China only lets in a couple of thousand people a year. They're making an enormous mistake.
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My mom came to the United States in 1978 from Ireland and became a citizen in 1990. I have a friend from Indonesia that still cannot get citizenship and he's been here 18 yrs. The system has been a problem for a long time. It sounds like what you're suggesting is essentially an open border and a 5 yr window to become a productive American citizen.. So, how many people would we need at the Southern Border to vet anyone crossing?
That wasn't what he was suggesting at all.
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Generally, I agree. But we let those folks in before we treated them poorly. Right now, we aren't letting them in, and we're caging them and treating them all like criminals.
It's despicable.
Yessir.
Apparently the market is not thrilled today. :(
Classic snap-back. Rollercoaster market has been here for a bit now.
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Classic snap-back. Rollercoaster market has been here for a bit now.
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
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Hards
I would normally agree with you on feeling the effects of the lockdown in the upcoming weeks, but these are crazy times. I believe businesses are already feeling the effects and the consumer is lagging way behind. The entire supply chain mess has been impossible to figure out and I still do not feel the previous issues were 100% baked into cost of goods. I am far from a logistics expert, but containers costing 4-6x times normal cost and taking an extra 30-60 days should have translated into much higher costs than we have seen, IMO. I have accused the Chinese of funny accounting for 20+ years and now I wonder about our accounting in the USA. I guess I have grown very cynical on the topic after dealing with it over the past two years.
Yep, and its shocking the entire system. Talking to my contacts in India, the prices for both rough and polished diamonds in the market are about 25-30% higher than normal. That hasn't gotten to the retailer or consumer yet, so they aren't quite able to push those costs fully down the chain, so production is grinding to a halt or orders are thinning out cause its not sustainable. Not to mention orders taking 5-6 weeks longer than normal.
Inflation in part is being driven by free money for big business (read firms buying up all real estate driving up home prices, and equivalently in a lot of markets buying up old affordable apartment buildings and replacing them with ones that have double the rent). And inflation is being driven by supply chain issues, leading to big business being able to raise prices to increase profits.
For this to be true, you are saying that big businesses are not affected at all by the supply chain issues, so its simply prices being raised for sole profit sake...which is simply not true.
And to echo Hards, I don't care who its distributed to or what means testing is done, shotgunning a bunch more money into the system right now, to citizens or companies, is not going to abate inflation in any way, and likely only stoke the flames more severely.
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For this to be true, you are saying that big businesses are not affected at all by the supply chain issues, so its simply prices being raised for sole profit sake...which is simply not true.
Disagree here. There is a ton of price gouging going on that companies are blaming on inflation. These publicly traded companies are required to acknowledge this in their shareholder meetings, and they have.
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For this to be true, you are saying that big businesses are not affected at all by the supply chain issues, so its simply prices being raised for sole profit sake...which is simply not true.
And to echo Hards, I don't care who its distributed to or what means testing is done, shotgunning a bunch more money into the system right now, to citizens or companies, is not going to abate inflation in any way, and likely only stoke the flames more severely.
First, as you well know, this is not my arena, so speaking mostly to hear replies and learn from those that know more.
As I see it, right now it is the bottom 50% of the nation that is suffering the most, while big businesses are raking in record profits. Raising interest rates disproportionately negatively impacts the bottom 50%. So they get doubly screwed right now.
So what is the solution? Just let the bottom 50% take double damage for a decade of funneling cash to big business and the upper classes (which was our monetary policy to avoid a recession)?
The way I look at it, right now the problem is not caused by an increase in demand, rather supply chain issues, and companies still not increasing production post-COVID, because they realized in some places, there was a surplus of supply and no need to go back to that point, have let to a supply crisis.
Demand isn't increasing, because the bottom middle 50% has no money, they are over leveraged as it is. Even giving them more money will just lead to them paying off existing debt, not increasing purchases. So giving them more money will not impact prices (no change to supply; no changes to demand), it just lessens the blow they are taking right now.
It is an alternative approach to the idea of pumping money into the economy via low interest rates and QE. All that extra money went to the rich and large corporations. So it didn't increase prices (except for stock prices), or cause inflation, because the money was being sequestered out of the goods part of the economy. The difference is where the money starts (it ends up in the same place at the top).
Starting at the bottom allows the bottom 50% to de-leverage a bit, and actually afford the housing they are currently living in. The money flows to the top.
That's my uneducated view on it. Curious where you (and others that are better experts) find my fatal flaws in reasoning.
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Didn't we pump a bunch of money into the economy via the bottom 50% during Covid? The payments were means tested. The child tax credits disproportionately helped the bottom 50%. Student loan deferrals help those who are younger and less well off.
And I think its wrong to state that demand isn't a problem. Try to buy a durable good. Try to get a contractor to your house.
There is a lot of money being spent in the economy right now.
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Didn't we pump a bunch of money into the economy via the bottom 50% during Covid? The payments were means tested. The child tax credits disproportionately helped the bottom 50%. Student loan deferrals help those who are younger and less well off.
And I think its wrong to state that demand isn't a problem. Try to buy a durable good. Try to get a contractor to your house.
There is a lot of money being spent in the economy right now.
Anecdotally, we've held off building things or replacing things for a couple of years now because I can't justify the cost of materials, presently.
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Didn't we pump a bunch of money into the economy via the bottom 50% during Covid? The payments were means tested. The child tax credits disproportionately helped the bottom 50%. Student loan deferrals help those who are younger and less well off.
And I think its wrong to state that demand isn't a problem. Try to buy a durable good. Try to get a contractor to your house.
There is a lot of money being spent in the economy right now.
We've hired 2 contractors in the last month for some home improvements. We had multiple contractors bid for both projects. This wasn't difficult at all unlike buying a new fridge a year ago.
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Disagree here. There is a ton of price gouging going on that companies are blaming on inflation. These publicly traded companies are required to acknowledge this in their shareholder meetings, and they have.
Sure, just like companies raised costs or cut services "due to COVID" when it was really to just save money, and haven't walked it back as things have changed. But I don't think either is broad brush. Some companies are raising prices and blaming in on inflation, absolutely. Some are also being hammered by supply chain and inflation issues. Trying to say its all one or the other is annoying and untrue.
I also take what publicly traded companies show in the short term with a grain of salt cause they can creatively account and show profits when in reality they are rotting from the inside. You can get away with if for a few quarters, but if its systemic or longer lasting, suddenly chickens come home to roost.
First, as you well know, this is not my arena, so speaking mostly to hear replies and learn from those that know more.
As I see it, right now it is the bottom 50% of the nation that is suffering the most, while big businesses are raking in record profits. Raising interest rates disproportionately negatively impacts the bottom 50%. So they get doubly screwed right now.
So what is the solution? Just let the bottom 50% take double damage for a decade of funneling cash to big business and the upper classes (which was our monetary policy to avoid a recession)?
The way I look at it, right now the problem is not caused by an increase in demand, rather supply chain issues, and companies still not increasing production post-COVID, because they realized in some places, there was a surplus of supply and no need to go back to that point, have let to a supply crisis.
Demand isn't increasing, because the bottom middle 50% has no money, they are over leveraged as it is. Even giving them more money will just lead to them paying off existing debt, not increasing purchases. So giving them more money will not impact prices (no change to supply; no changes to demand), it just lessens the blow they are taking right now.
It is an alternative approach to the idea of pumping money into the economy via low interest rates and QE. All that extra money went to the rich and large corporations. So it didn't increase prices (except for stock prices), or cause inflation, because the money was being sequestered out of the goods part of the economy. The difference is where the money starts (it ends up in the same place at the top).
Starting at the bottom allows the bottom 50% to de-leverage a bit, and actually afford the housing they are currently living in. The money flows to the top.
That's my uneducated view on it. Curious where you (and others that are better experts) find my fatal flaws in reasoning.
Didn't we pump a bunch of money into the economy via the bottom 50% during Covid? The payments were means tested. The child tax credits disproportionately helped the bottom 50%. Student loan deferrals help those who are younger and less well off.
And I think its wrong to state that demand isn't a problem. Try to buy a durable good. Try to get a contractor to your house.
There is a lot of money being spent in the economy right now.
Yea, Ive been open about thinking there was far too much QE done by the Fed. Business support and liquidity is good, but it was far too much and for too long.
But like Fluffy said, its nowhere near as bleak as you frame it. Look at airlines and travel. Its not just rich and elite traveling, airports and planes are packed. All sorts of consumer goods are sold out or on back order. The home improvement/home building sector has been well described as over-saturated with demand.
The job market is robust, so you're not supplementing people disproportionately out of work. I'm not at all trying to say wage imbalance or not keeping pace with inflation isn't an issue, but just giving cash as a "catch up" is only going to make things more of an issue. Not sure where its going to get spent that's not already seeing plenty of turnover.
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Execs caught on calls to investors/shareholders admitting to raising prices "because they can".
Price gouging is absolutely happening. Conveniently using inflation (which is real) as a cover. Monopolies in certain sectors play into this.
I've definitely seen articles saying costs to consumers are more impacted by price gouging rather than inflation/supply chain.
We gonna mention all the PPP loan free money/fraud and it's impact on inflation?
Anyone here in the bottom 10/20/25% of the nation economically that can tell us their experience with paying for necessary goods like fuel/food/rent? Would a stimulus right now help?
Edit: https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profits-have-contributed-disproportionately-to-inflation-how-should-policymakers-respond/
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Sure, just like companies raised costs or cut services "due to COVID" when it was really to just save money, and haven't walked it back as things have changed. But I don't think either is broad brush. Some companies are raising prices and blaming in on inflation, absolutely. Some are also being hammered by supply chain and inflation issues. Trying to say its all one or the other is annoying and untrue.
I also take what publicly traded companies show in the short term with a grain of salt cause they can creatively account and show profits when in reality they are rotting from the inside. You can get away with if for a few quarters, but if its systemic or longer lasting, suddenly chickens come home to roost.
Yea, Ive been open about thinking there was far too much QE done by the Fed. Business support and liquidity is good, but it was far too much and for too long.
But like Fluffy said, its nowhere near as bleak as you frame it. Look at airlines and travel. Its not just rich and elite traveling, airports and planes are packed. All sorts of consumer goods are sold out or on back order. The home improvement/home building sector has been well described as over-saturated with demand.
The job market is robust, so you're not supplementing people disproportionately out of work. I'm not at all trying to say wage imbalance or not keeping pace with inflation isn't an issue, but just giving cash as a "catch up" is only going to make things more of an issue. Not sure where its going to get spent that's not already seeing plenty of turnover.
The number of daily flights worldwide is still down 30% compared to before COVID. What you are observing in terms of things being packed is a supply issue. They can make more money with fewer flights, and COVID was an excuse to cut supply (no sense right now to grow the flight supply; and a lot of pilots left the business and don't want to return).
Even some resorts are doing the same. A conference I am supposed to go to can't get the resort to release more rooms, because they know wealthy people want a vacation and have the money to spend, so they are saying they are "full" so they can charge the wealthy 5-8x what a normal room costs (and get them to pay). They are better off with 20 rooms left unreserved, when they can get 5-10 rooms rented at 5-8x book rate. (yes this is anecdotal; and yes it is sound business practice)
The bolded is an interesting one. Again, anecdotally, where I live there is a major labor shortage. But it is specific to the area I live, where people paying even $15 an hour can't fill jobs. That is because of the cost of rent or houses. The closest affordable housing for those people is 1.5 hours away (if you have a car), or far longer 2-3 hours each way if you do not. In those cheap neighborhoods, there are no jobs to be found.
What I see is we have a major problem, and I'm honestly not sure of what the solution should be. In general, I lean towards wanting to help those that are suffering the most, until we can figure out a longer term solution.
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We gonna mention all the PPP loan free money/fraud and it's impact on inflation?
How many PPP loans do you think were actual "fraud" that went undetected? The total PPP loan program totaled just under $600B. If half of that was fraud, which is not in any way true, that would be $300B which isn't enough to meaningfully cause any real inflation.
But go ahead and tell us other reasons all businesses are greedy and that the PPP money should have been definitely given straight to people cause having $5K is better than having a job.
Also, your last query is like asking a 24 year old if total student debt forgiveness is a good idea economically and for fiscal policy.
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The number of daily flights worldwide is still down 30% compared to before COVID. What you are observing in terms of things being packed is a supply issue. They can make more money with fewer flights, and COVID was an excuse to cut supply (no sense right now to grow the flight supply; and a lot of pilots left the business and don't want to return).
Using worldwide flight traffic is silly when major population centers in places like China or SE Asia are still not open.
US passenger traffic in 2022 so far has been down about 8-10% from 2019. But up 50-60%+ from 2021. Jan/Feb travel was up nearly 100% from 2021. Flights being packed may be a supply issue, but airports being packed is not.
Anecdotal evidence is ineffective in job market situations like this, same as everyone flamed people for saying that they knew a restaurant owner who couldn't find workers cause they would rather sit home and collect unemployment.
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How many PPP loans do you think were actual "fraud" that went undetected? The total PPP loan program totaled just under $600B. If half of that was fraud, which is not in any way true, that would be $300B which isn't enough to meaningfully cause any real inflation.
But go ahead and tell us other reasons all businesses are greedy and that the PPP money should have been definitely given straight to people cause having $5K is better than having a job.
Also, your last query is like asking a 24 year old if total student debt forgiveness is a good idea economically and for fiscal policy.
Try not to conflate.
Business greed/price gouging today is a different subject than PPP fraud.
All for-profit businesses are greedy. By definition. That's what they do. Generate profit. But, again, that has nothing to do with the PPP money.
Also, PPP fraud doesn't matter?
You've mentioned multiple times that adding more money to the situation would be a bad decision.
I'm so glad we've come to this conclusion after giving it all out to those at the top and now we realize giving out money is bad. So don't give anything further out to those who might really need it.
Decisions like that, repeated over and over, have f*cked the bottom of society for decades.
Lastly, if $300B isn't anything that would cause inflation, I'm sure you'll be happy to know that the previous stimulus checks were $272B, $142B and $389B. So, we can easily do another round of checks and not impact inflation. Perfect.
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Try not to conflate.
Business greed/price gouging today is a different subject than PPP fraud.
All for-profit businesses are greedy. By definition. That's what they do. Generate profit. But, again, that has nothing to do with the PPP money.
Also, PPP fraud doesn't matter?
You've mentioned multiple times that adding more money to the situation would be a bad decision.
I'm so glad we've come to this conclusion after giving it all out to those at the top and now we realize giving out money is bad. So don't give anything further out to those who might really need it.
Decisions like that, repeated over and over, have f*cked the bottom of society for decades.
Lastly, if $300B isn't anything that would cause inflation, I'm sure you'll be happy to know that the previous stimulus checks were $272B, $142B and $389B. So, we can easily do another round of checks and not impact inflation. Perfect.
Nobody ever said PPP fraud didn't matter. But you act like it was a huge portion of the funds allocated and that its a significant factor driving inflation.
Way to completely dodge the point, not answer the question, and go for a gotcha. Look forward to another completely unbiased YouTube video in response, probably on the glories of MMT.
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Nobody ever said PPP fraud didn't matter. But you act like it was a huge portion of the funds allocated and that its a significant factor driving inflation.
Way to completely dodge the point, not answer the question, and go for a gotcha. Look forward to another completely unbiased YouTube video in response, probably on the glories of MMT.
Lol.
You dodged nearly everything I posted and cherry picked what you wanted. Just like you've also ignored several people stating price gouging was occurring. Which is by definition a greedy act.
I tried to respond to anything you asked about. You're only question was how much of the loans do I think was fraud. The answer is below.
Regarding PPP fraud, here's what I found: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/biggest-fraud-generation-looting-covid-relief-program-known-ppp-n1279664
Now, if even all of the highest end is accurate, 500B, then I'll agree with you that it's unlikely to influence inflation.
Since we both agree that 300 or 500B is unlikely to influence inflation, then we would both agree that sending out stimulus checks again to combat inflationary price increases would: 1. not influence inflation further and 2. Help those in-need afford basic goods.
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Lol.
You dodged nearly everything I posted and cherry picked what you wanted. Just like you've also ignored several people stating price gouging was occurring. Which is by definition a greedy act.
I tried to respond to anything you asked about. You're only question was how much of the loans do I think was fraud. The answer is below.
Regarding PPP fraud, here's what I found: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/biggest-fraud-generation-looting-covid-relief-program-known-ppp-n1279664
Now, if even all of the highest end is accurate, 500B, then I'll agree with you that it's unlikely to influence inflation.
Since we both agree that 300 or 500B is unlikely to influence inflation, then we would both agree that sending out stimulus checks again to combat inflationary price increases would: 1. not influence inflation further and 2. Help those in-need afford basic goods.
I didn't dodge anything. I said that it was not all logistic/supply chain related nor was it all purely price gouging. People seem to want to bucket it all or nothing. There are many people in the business industry on this board who are directly speaking to inflationary effects in their industry or sector, as well as supply chain issues directly impacting costs, and then you're saying its all price gouging cause of some shareholder calls. I never denied anything.
That link says 10% of the PPP program. Which I think is pretty high, but still, less than $100B. Then it lumps in unemployment fraud which is a completely separate issue. Speaking of conflation...
If you really think a single round of sub-$2000 checks is going to help everyone catch up and combat the damage that inflation has caused, I'm not sure what to say. Cause thats the $250B you're talking about. And I don't think that would occur in a vacuum.
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I didn't dodge anything. I said that it was not all logistic/supply chain related nor was it all purely price gouging. People seem to want to bucket it all or nothing. There are many people in the business industry on this board who are directly speaking to inflationary effects in their industry or sector, as well as supply chain issues directly impacting costs, and then you're saying its all price gouging cause of some shareholder calls. I never denied anything.
That link says 10% of the PPP program. Which I think is pretty high, but still, less than $100B. Then it lumps in unemployment fraud which is a completely separate issue. Speaking of conflation...
If you really think a single round of sub-$2000 checks is going to help everyone catch up and combat the damage that inflation has caused, I'm not sure what to say. Cause thats the $250B you're talking about. And I don't think that would occur in a vacuum.
1. We agree? Here's what I said: I've definitely seen articles saying costs to consumers are more impacted by price gouging rather than inflation/supply chain.
I then provided link above.
2. I don't believe a single round of checks would help in-need folks catch up or fully combat damage from inflation. But I'm also sure it would greatly help them. If the total amount given out wouldn't impact inflation, why not do it?
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Would strongly encourage all to get into AMRN, ASAP - as in Monday. I put 50% of my portfolio into it back in July and used another 25% to buy the dips the last 5 months for dollar cost average of $18 per share.
AMRN's Vascepa will revolutionize the way we treat heart disease, diabetes, strokes, and potentially dementia.
Other strong biotech play: IGMS
Stock I took a flier on and kind of like is WRTC.
I felt like revisting this hot stock tip from a couple of years ago.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMRN/
Sitting currently at 1.35
RIP Musk's retirement
Full disclosure, I bought a lot of Coinbase at IPO and am in the tank as well.
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Using worldwide flight traffic is silly when major population centers in places like China or SE Asia are still not open.
US passenger traffic in 2022 so far has been down about 8-10% from 2019. But up 50-60%+ from 2021. Jan/Feb travel was up nearly 100% from 2021. Flights being packed may be a supply issue, but airports being packed is not.
Anecdotal evidence is ineffective in job market situations like this, same as everyone flamed people for saying that they knew a restaurant owner who couldn't find workers cause they would rather sit home and collect unemployment.
Thank you for the responses. I appreciate it.
Also, I agree on anecdotal stories (which is why I always preface my statements with it), but it is the best measly old me had access to.
I'll hang up now and just take in the info from the thread.
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I felt like revisting this hot stock tip from a couple of years ago.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMRN/
Sitting currently at 1.35
RIP Musk's retirement
Full disclosure, I bought a lot of Coinbase at IPO and am in the tank as well.
Full disclosure, my mini-portfolio of gene editing stocks is performing like the Cathie Woods' favs that they are. They were up 50%, too, in the first month and I thought long and hard about taking my profit and running, and well...I'm bad at selling.
But if Ners really had 75% of his portfolio in AMRN as he claimed...that's an expensive lessen about diversification.
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Full disclosure, my mini-portfolio of gene editing stocks is performing like the Cathie Woods' favs that they are. They were up 50%, too, in the first month and I thought long and hard about taking my profit and running, and well...I'm bad at selling.
But if Ners really had 75% of his portfolio in AMRN as he claimed...that's an expensive lessen about diversification.
Lessen is a wonderful typo, in context
Edit: Cloudflare (NET) just hit 52-week lows on updated guidance that they will beat YoY revenue and miss profitability, and I'm buying again.
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It is time for the Fed to make a bold move to combat inflation. In addition, the tariffs on goods imported from China need to be removed ASAP. That would do wonders for the cost of goods purchased in the US.
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It is time for the Fed to make a bold move to combat inflation. In addition, the tariffs on goods imported from China need to be removed ASAP. That would do wonders for the cost of goods purchased in the US.
So much for that optimistic inflation report Goose. :(
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Muggsy
Unless tariffs are removed and the Fed acts responsibly we are in for a long haul. The Fed claims they are not in business to protect the stock market, but they fully realize how a watered down 401k will affect the economy. They padded the market for two decades with QE and cheap money and now have to figure out how to create a healthy balance. My bet, they are forced to get more aggressive.
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Muggsy
Unless tariffs are removed and the Fed acts responsibly we are in for a long haul. The Fed claims they are not in business to protect the stock market, but they fully realize how a watered down 401k will affect the economy. They padded the market for two decades with QE and cheap money and now have to figure out how to create a healthy balance. My bet, they are forced to get more aggressive.
Agreed. And this is just one component of our economic issues right now. People can deny it all they want and the administration can continue their la-la-land narrative, but the fact remains that people may very well be hurting for some time. I'm also wondering how this will impact recent retirees? Many in the past few years have left the work force and retired earlier than they planned because of covid. What I do know is we may be waiting awhile for inflation just to go away. That "transitory" narrative is looking worse and worse every day.
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Muggsy
I said months ago that there are going to be an awful lot of nervous 50-60 somethings that retired early. Many were prepared and I believe many, many made a mistake. It help will the labor market when they go back to work.
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There are job openings. Maybe part time, maybe something less stressful and more rewarding.
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There are job openings. Maybe part time, maybe something less stressful and more rewarding.
My company needs to fill about 60 positions if anyone is interested that retired too early but I wouldn’t hire quitters.
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There are job openings. Maybe part time, maybe something less stressful and more rewarding.
No kidding. That's not the point Tower. We have a severe labor shortage. Our overall production levels are low, we're very stagnant.
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How do you think we should mitigate a severe labor shortage?
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Exactly. Options: Some retirees return to the labor market. Affordable day care opens up some more moms can re-enter the work force. More immigration.
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Exactly. Options: Some retirees return to the labor market. Affordable day care opens up some more moms can re-enter the work force. More immigration.
All of the above.
1 million died from COVID. They weren't all retirees. That's a big chunk of people no longer available for the job market.
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How do you think we should mitigate a severe labor shortage?
I think it kind of depends on the industry but there has to be some sort of incentive in addition to wages and perhaps less dependence on government programs. Obviously an increase in immigration would help and more 50+ retirees coming back to the workforce.
I'm certainly not an expert but as an example my great aunt moved into one of the best assisted living places in the North Shore of Chicago a few years ago. Before covid it was run beautifully with a tremendous staff which served a variety of purposes. In the last year it has turned basically into a dumpster fire because they are so short staffed.
This is clearly common right now in all service industries. So maybe you offer certain benefits or find a way to be more creative in hiring people? I don't know but inflation had to be lessened for starters.
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Inflation is caused by two basic things. Too much money and not enough product.
Right now there isn't enough product. Supply chain issues and not enough workers, causing wages to go higher. To mitigate the upward pressure on wages, you need a larger labor pool. How do you increase the size in the labor pool?
Supply issues are going to continue until COVID, Putin, and labor shortages are under control.
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It is time for the Fed to make a bold move to combat inflation. In addition, the tariffs on goods imported from China need to be removed ASAP. That would do wonders for the cost of goods purchased in the US.
25% tariff never should have been dropped on everything from China in the first place. More "brilliance" from TFG. (Sorry, couldn't help myself.) US mills had lots of planned capacity ads in the works, but it's a big investment and takes time (in years) to build and implement. They weren't no where even remotely near ready when the tariffs dropped.
I think I garnered from my metals trade magazines over the last 2-3 years that the tariffs created 5,000 jobs at USA steel mills, but caused lay-offs of about 25,000 people at secondary steel fabrication plants. I.E. Companies who did importing and companies that purchased off shore steel then did some sort of stamping and forming operations on a product from the imported steel. A big industry net loss overall.
Also, a lot of lower volume but very important specialty grades/alloys are only made overseas (like in South Korea or Japan, not China) because they are lower volume so the US mills wouldn't make them for profitability reasons.
The tariffs are a big part of the longer lead times too. It's not all COVID closure related. They put in quotas with the tariffs. With Europe, Japan, Korea, the Biden admin has kept the quotas but removed the tariffs for quantities within the quota quantity.
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Inflation is caused by two basic things. Too much money and not enough product.
Right now there isn't enough product. Supply chain issues and not enough workers, causing wages to go higher. To mitigate the upward pressure on wages, you need a larger labor pool. How do you increase the size in the labor pool?
Supply issues are going to continue until COVID, Putin, and labor shortages are under control.
This is reductive regarding the causes of inflation (not in a bad way, it's hard to boil something complex down to a statement). One of the major causes of inflation is when, psychologically, everyone agrees that inflation is happening and comes to expect rising prices. Every business I'm working with is raising prices across the board and no customers are batting an eye.
I'm not saying that there aren't hard causes to inflation, but the soft causes make a huge impact too.
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61 year-old brother retired in Nov, likely influenced by the market being at an ATH.
Now it's a triple hit - not earning towards retirement, taking cash out at much higher premium, and not getting future growth of the extra needed to cash out now..
Muggsy
I said months ago that there are going to be an awful lot of nervous 50-60 somethings that retired early. Many were prepared and I believe many, many made a mistake. It help will the labor market when they go back to work.
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skatastrophy
Since the start of the pandemic, we have had clients accept price increases that they never would have pre pandemic. Literally, we have clients that will fight for pennies, yet have been accepting sizable increases for over two years. IMO, that has been a part of the inflation issues. Everyone has passed on higher costs without any concern how it may affect their business. It has been a crazy two years.
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Point
A wise man once told me "if you think you have a lot of money, double it". Boomers get bashed on here, and everywhere, but the irresponsible early retirement by many is the worst move I think Boomers have made. IMO, I would need 2-3 times the money I currently have to feel comfortable retiring early and I still would be nervous.
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skatastrophy
Since the start of the pandemic, we have had clients accept price increases that they never would have pre pandemic. Literally, we have clients that will fight for pennies, yet have been accepting sizable increases for over two years. IMO, that has been a part of the inflation issues. Everyone has passed on higher costs without any concern how it may affect their business. It has been a crazy two years.
Yep spot on. But to bring this back to the investing thread: If a company you own or are considering buying into aren't raising their prices right now start asking yourself why that is. Poor leadership? Not as competitive in their space as you originally thought?
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I think it kind of depends on the industry but there has to be some sort of incentive in addition to wages and perhaps less dependence on government programs. Obviously an increase in immigration would help and more 50+ retirees coming back to the workforce.
What "government programs" are people depending upon right now that is keeping people from the workplace now more than before?
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Goose - I am a long ways off from retirement and this correction has proven that even stronger. Wish I was smarter to hold more cash positions to invest during the dips. I do want to find a balance to not work up to my death (my father died 2 years after retiring at 65) but I think there are better options (like consulting or working part-time) rather than full retirement at at earlier age. We also don't have kids to fund college tuition or weddings which helps the financial projections, but also do not have kids to help look after us when we may need it.
Point
A wise man once told me "if you think you have a lot of money, double it". Boomers get bashed on here, and everywhere, but the irresponsible early retirement by many is the worst move I think Boomers have made. IMO, I would need 2-3 times the money I currently have to feel comfortable retiring early and I still would be nervous.
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skatastrophy
I have been a believer that well run companies have always been confident in raising or lowering prices. IMO, one's that are afraid to raise pricing are likely not a long term company I would invest in. My Dad always wanted to be the first person to raise prices and the first person to lower prices. His business was a commodity driven price industry and he always wanted to lead the way, up or down. There is no crime in raising prices that match rising costs and that has to be passed onto the end customer
One a side note, I think removing the tariffs will help companies that raised prices accordingly and will hurt companies that lagged passing on the increase. We have clients that were in both camps. IMO, there are too many companies out there and I think we will see a weeding out of the bad ones over next year or so.
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Point
Not having kids does change things quite a bit. Aside from having four kids, we now have three granddaughters, and it does continue to add expenses to our lives. No doubt having the big family has me being more cautious.
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Yep spot on. But to bring this back to the investing thread: If a company you own or are considering buying into aren't raising their prices right now start asking yourself why that is. Poor leadership? Not as competitive in their space as you originally thought?
I think it depends. I know companies who have not changed prices cause they have, lets say a 50% markup, to their end customer. Thats a bit rich most of the time. Now that their costs have gone up 10%, they're tempted to raise their prices, but that may also trigger an evaluation of overall costs by the end customer, so they'll take short term heat hoping things temper down and they can keep their favorable long term markup.
And FWIW, not all price competition is equal. For example, in my industry niche, we are the clear quality leader. But our main competition is involved in a variety of different product lines and their competitive product to ours is usually a loss leader, or attempted add-on. So we need to be VERY careful moving prices due to market factors, or inflation, cause while good, reliable customers understand the difference and value, others view it as a keeping up with the Jones' box tick and will take any excuse to cut costs. Its stupid, but sometimes that's business. Same as when new management boots a long time reliable supplier just to shake things up and put "their mark" on a business.
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Muggsy
Unless tariffs are removed and the Fed acts responsibly we are in for a long haul. The Fed claims they are not in business to protect the stock market, but they fully realize how a watered down 401k will affect the economy. They padded the market for two decades with QE and cheap money and now have to figure out how to create a healthy balance. My bet, they are forced to get more aggressive.
IMO, Biden will rip the tarriffs off and rates will continue to rise to combat inflation. They only reasonable solutions right now.
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No kidding. That's not the point Tower. We have a severe labor shortage. Our overall production levels are low, we're very stagnant.
lol
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I think it depends. I know companies who have not changed prices cause they have, lets say a 50% markup, to their end customer. Thats a bit rich most of the time. Now that their costs have gone up 10%, they're tempted to raise their prices, but that may also trigger an evaluation of overall costs by the end customer, so they'll take short term heat hoping things temper down and they can keep their favorable long term markup.
And FWIW, not all price competition is equal. For example, in my industry niche, we are the clear quality leader. But our main competition is involved in a variety of different product lines and their competitive product to ours is usually a loss leader, or attempted add-on. So we need to be VERY careful moving prices due to market factors, or inflation, cause while good, reliable customers understand the difference and value, others view it as a keeping up with the Jones' box tick and will take any excuse to cut costs. Its stupid, but sometimes that's business. Same as when new management boots a long time reliable supplier just to shake things up and put "their mark" on a business.
Interesting point, I suppose I am in an info bubble on this one. I only work with companies that have a huge moat and that raise their prices frequently to desensitize their customers.
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Point
A wise man once told me "if you think you have a lot of money, double it". Boomers get bashed on here, and everywhere, but the irresponsible early retirement by many is the worst move I think Boomers have made. IMO, I would need 2-3 times the money I currently have to feel comfortable retiring early and I still would be nervous.
My parents are older boomers. They've done really well with their investments over the years. Not to mention they both have teachers pensions, and my father has a military pension. They've been extremely fortunate to be able to be retired for 15+ years at this point. But when I was growing up, we never did the things that a lot of other families did. Almost never went out to dinner. Didn't go to the movies. Vacations were always fairly bare bones. At this point, when I travel with them and they're being stingy (a lifetime of being that way won't change easily) I tell them they can't take it with them. :P
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My parents are older boomers. They've done really well with their investments over the years. Not to mention they both have teachers pensions, and my father has a military pension.
I think people who have defined benefit plans are at a huge advantage in retirement, assuming they chose the right option. For as long as they live, they are going to have that income.
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Hards
Sounds like your Mom and Dad did it the right way. There are plenty of good stories out there, but I am afraid there are going to be a lot of very disappointed boomers in the upcoming months and years.
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Hards
Sounds like your Mom and Dad did it the right way. There are plenty of good stories out there, but I am afraid there are going to be a lot of very disappointed boomers in the upcoming months and years.
Absolutely. I have many employees that are approaching retirement, but continue to stick around 'another year' because they are being realistic with themselves that they cannot afford to actually retire.
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The commentary on what the Fed or Gov have done in the last 20+ years makes me chuckle.
Who/why were those decisions made?
I have to believe they were decisions as the result of influence by the wealthy/powerful - wall street, global corporations, etc.
It sure seems to be at a detriment to the US as a whole.
We reap what we sow.
I certainly hope current or recent retirees aren't significantly impacted by the recent economic downturn
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jesmu
What commentary makes you chuckle?
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I'm sure I mentioned it in the retirement thread, but pensions, SS and other guaranteed income sources are key to retirement. Countless studies have shown that the people who are happiest in retirement and live longer in retirement tend to have guaranteed income sources, incomes they can't outlive.
Early in my career I had the mindset that retirement planning was all about accumulation of assets, but then I met a guy that basically said, no, his statement to me was, you don't retire on assets, you retire on income.
His point was to make sure you have enough guaranteed income streams to cover your essential expenses, if pension/SS or dividend income can do that great, if not consider using a portion of your assets to buy an annuity.
You can then use your other non-guaranteed assets to fund your discretionary expenses.
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I'm sure I mentioned it in the retirement thread, but pensions, SS and other guaranteed income sources are key to retirement. Countless studies have shown that the people who are happiest in retirement and live longer in retirement tend to have guaranteed income sources, incomes they can't outlive.
Early in my career I had the mindset that retirement planning was all about accumulation of assets, but then I met a guy that basically said, no, his statement to me was, you don't retire on assets, you retire on income.
His point was to make sure you have enough guaranteed income streams to cover your essential expenses, if pension/SS or dividend income can do that great, if not consider using a portion of your assets to buy an annuity.
You can then use your other non-guaranteed assets to fund your discretionary expenses.
Unfortunately, pensions are going the way of the wooly mammoth. Fewer and fewer companies offer them, and many that still have pensions for older employees make newer hires ineligible for them. So that leaves employees with self-funded options like 401ks, and many companies don't even match any contributions. Annuities come with a variety of fees and limitations, so they're a far from perfect alternative.
My wife and I will get some pension money, and I also have set up our stock portfolio to pay out fairly significant dividend income. There are good and bad things about Dividend Growth Investing, but one of the good things is that even when the stock market goes down, an income stream continues to grow.
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jesmu
What commentary makes you chuckle?
Whatever YouTube vids or the Jacobin website is telling him to chuckle st.
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An actual attempt at humor. Good job, ziggy.
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An actual attempt at humor. Good job, ziggy.
An attempt, but an abject failure as usual. Bitterness isn't really humor.
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I think it depends. I know companies who have not changed prices cause they have, lets say a 50% markup, to their end customer. Thats a bit rich most of the time. Now that their costs have gone up 10%, they're tempted to raise their prices, but that may also trigger an evaluation of overall costs by the end customer, so they'll take short term heat hoping things temper down and they can keep their favorable long term markup.
And FWIW, not all price competition is equal. For example, in my industry niche, we are the clear quality leader. But our main competition is involved in a variety of different product lines and their competitive product to ours is usually a loss leader, or attempted add-on. So we need to be VERY careful moving prices due to market factors, or inflation, cause while good, reliable customers understand the difference and value, others view it as a keeping up with the Jones' box tick and will take any excuse to cut costs. Its stupid, but sometimes that's business. Same as when new management boots a long time reliable supplier just to shake things up and put "their mark" on a business.
We haven't raised prices but as I mentioned last week our customers get a Fab + Average Monthly Metal value so the total price floats up when metals do.
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An attempt, but an abject failure as usual. Bitterness isn't really humor.
🐷🐷
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Question for Bitcoin/crypto folks: Are you buying more here, selling, standing pat? Are you as enthusiastic about crypto as you had been?
I am a crypto agnostic.I have considered buying some but haven't because I decided it doesn't really fit my buy-and-holdish investment philosophy. But I am not one who makes fun of others for owning it, and I have friends who invested several years ago who are still way up -- and still enthusiastic about Bitcoin and a couple other big crypto players while critical of the likes of Dogecoin.
I will say that I am skeptical of Fidelity's decision to make crypto available within 401k plans. Many who invest only through 401ks -- and that covers a wide swath of U.S. investors -- do not follow the market very closely.
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We haven't raised prices but as I mentioned last week our customers get a Fab + Average Monthly Metal value so the total price floats up when metals do.
That sounds like very transparent pricing.
Fab should be crawling up with the increased cost of labor?
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That sounds like very transparent pricing.
Fab should be crawling up with the increased cost of labor?
We're kind of a niche business. It's pretty much industry standard especially when it comes to copper alloys.
Our labor is not really going up. We had some long tenure people retire and replaced by people who make way less even though we greatly increased the starting hourly rate to be more competitive. Plus like someone else said, if we increase too much we will lose business. We sell internationally and international customers prefer our wire for quality reasons as long as our price is in the neighborhood of Asian suppliers, but if we go too high they will switch for the lower price and eat the high scrap rate from the Asian suppliers.
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We're kind of a niche business. It's pretty much industry standard especially when it comes to copper alloys.
Our labor is not really going up. We had some long tenure people retire and replaced by people who make way less even though we greatly increased the starting hourly rate to be more competitive. Plus like someone else said, if we increase too much we will lose business. We sell internationally and international customers prefer our wire for quality reasons as long as our price is in the neighborhood of Asian suppliers, but if we go too high they will switch for the lower price and eat the high scrap rate from the Asian suppliers.
Very interesting. In B2B SaaS our average cost per sales rep has increased 2x-3x. Those tend to be high-ish turnover roles and labor knows they're in high demand. It's driving our CAC through the roof. Even though net retention is high, growth-stage companies need to acquire new customers like crazy to keep pace.
It sounds like your biz/industry is established enough that it's more about growing accounts, not losing accounts, and maybe poaching a few from your frenemies?
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Unfortunately, pensions are going the way of the wooly mammoth. Fewer and fewer companies offer them, and many that still have pensions for older employees make newer hires ineligible for them. So that leaves employees with self-funded options like 401ks, and many companies don't even match any contributions. Annuities come with a variety of fees and limitations, so they're a far from perfect alternative.
My wife and I will get some pension money, and I also have set up our stock portfolio to pay out fairly significant dividend income. There are good and bad things about Dividend Growth Investing, but one of the good things is that even when the stock market goes down, an income stream continues to grow.
It's great that you can rely on pensions and SS, two guaranteed sources of lifetime income. Dividend income is nice too, but of course not guaranteed, if you recall after the financial crisis of 2008, many companies eliminated or reduced their dividends, so while I am a big believer in buying dividend paying stocks, I also think annuities can be a nice tool in retirement planning. I understand that there are expenses associated with them, but you are buying something with that money, a guaranteed lifetime income that can sometimes be as high as 6%, depending on age. It's not something I recommend for everyone, but for some clients they make sense.
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Question for Bitcoin/crypto folks: Are you buying more here, selling, standing pat? Are you as enthusiastic about crypto as you had been?
I am a crypto agnostic.I have considered buying some but haven't because I decided it doesn't really fit my buy-and-holdish investment philosophy. But I am not one who makes fun of others for owning it, and I have friends who invested several years ago who are still way up -- and still enthusiastic about Bitcoin and a couple other big crypto players while critical of the likes of Dogecoin.
I will say that I am skeptical of Fidelity's decision to make crypto available within 401k plans. Many who invest only through 401ks -- and that covers a wide swath of U.S. investors -- do not follow the market very closely.
I'm still way up, but don't have a ton of cash sitting around to throw more at it. The LUNA story and UST story is interesting. Worth a read.
Personally, I don't buy the alt coins. I primarily own BTC and ETH. A couple of bucks here in there in other projects, but not enough to worry about.
BTC goes through these cycles every couple of years and people (and the media) absolutely freak out. And then what has happened every time? It rebounds and finds a new ATH.
No offense, MU82, but if I was your age and retired I'd only be doing a few bucks here and there. It is still and will continue to be a very volatile asset. At least until it can untether itself from the stock market... which may be never.
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I'm still way up, but don't have a ton of cash sitting around to throw more at it. The LUNA story and UST story is interesting. Worth a read.
Personally, I don't buy the alt coins. I primarily own BTC and ETH. A couple of bucks here in there in other projects, but not enough to worry about.
BTC goes through these cycles every couple of years and people (and the media) absolutely freak out. And then what has happened every time? It rebounds and finds a new ATH.
No offense, MU82, but if I was your age and retired I'd only be doing a few bucks here and there. It is still and will continue to be a very volatile asset. At least until it can untether itself from the stock market... which may be never.
I'm not the least bit offended with your last paragraph. Not sure why I or anybody else would be. I try to keep things simple in investing.
I did just read this morning about UST. Crazy effen stuff!
I wish you good fortune.
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It's great that you can rely on pensions and SS, two guaranteed sources of lifetime income. Dividend income is nice too, but of course not guaranteed, if you recall after the financial crisis of 2008, many companies eliminated or reduced their dividends, so while I am a big believer in buying dividend paying stocks, I also think annuities can be a nice tool in retirement planning. I understand that there are expenses associated with them, but you are buying something with that money, a guaranteed lifetime income that can sometimes be as high as 6%, depending on age. It's not something I recommend for everyone, but for some clients they make sense.
We do actually have an annuity-like product: TIAA Traditional. My wife bought some of that during her time as an RN at Chicago Children's, and we just left it there when we moved to Charlotte. I like that it provides ballast to an otherwise stock-centric portfolio while providing guaranteed income for life with a very solid payer. And we pay very minimal fees, so that's nice.
About 75% of dividends in S&P 500 stocks were either maintained or increased during the Great Recession, which was the second-worst financial crisis in U.S. history and the worst that most people who are still alive ever went through. So you're right, dividends aren't guaranteed ... but if you saw the list of stocks I own, I think you'd probably be willing to bet (as would I) that the vast majority of them won't be cutting their dividends during the next recession, either.
And yes, we're very fortunate that we'll get some pension money. Our kids will not be as fortunate.
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I'm still way up, but don't have a ton of cash sitting around to throw more at it. The LUNA story and UST story is interesting. Worth a read.
Personally, I don't buy the alt coins. I primarily own BTC and ETH. A couple of bucks here in there in other projects, but not enough to worry about.
BTC goes through these cycles every couple of years and people (and the media) absolutely freak out. And then what has happened every time? It rebounds and finds a new ATH.
No offense, MU82, but if I was your age and retired I'd only be doing a few bucks here and there. It is still and will continue to be a very volatile asset. At least until it can untether itself from the stock market... which may be never.
Can you share?
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Question for Bitcoin/crypto folks: Are you buying more here, selling, standing pat? Are you as enthusiastic about crypto as you had been?
Only adjacent to your question because I was in on COIN early, but don't actually trade crypto itself. But I'm trying to time the bottom and double down here pretty shortly. To Hards' point, this is just the volatility of crypto, so for me the real bet is "is crypto here to stay?" I think the answer is yes, even though I think it will only play a secondary/cyclical role to other currencies and investments. But even that, combined with what I think is Coinbase's still relatively strong position compared to other exchanges, is good enough for me to get in at this low.
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Can you share?
Here's one link
https://diginomica.com/defi-meltdown-luna-ust-and-other-tokens-plunge
The massive, screaming, red flag line in the article?
"In the case of the Terra-ble twins, it transpired that one reason for the collapse was that roughly three-quarters of the UST in circulation was on the Anchor platform, a decentralised lending and borrowing protocol – itself built on the Terra chain.
Anchor promises investors a stable interest rate of up to 19.5 percent. In other words, people were incentivised to be loyal to UST and Luna not because of those coins’ own attractiveness, but because Anchor itself promised high yields and a hedge against market volatility."
Anyone believing that they were going to get a promised 19.5% interest rate was a sucker, unfortunately.
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There's going to be (or should be) a much bigger story coming out about these specific coins crashing. It's an unregulated market and a couple of HFT funds are going to war in them right now.
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Only adjacent to your question because I was in on COIN early, but don't actually trade crypto itself. But I'm trying to time the bottom and double down here pretty shortly. To Hards' point, this is just the volatility of crypto, so for me the real bet is "is crypto here to stay?" I think the answer is yes, even though I think it will only play a secondary/cyclical role to other currencies and investments. But even that, combined with what I think is Coinbase's still relatively strong position compared to other exchanges, is good enough for me to get in at this low.
I really want to buy some more COIN this low. This level is absurd, honestly. Do I have the nards to pull the trigger. Ugh. Ask me in an hour.
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Can you share?
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/05/09/ust-stablecoin-falls-below-dollar-peg-for-second-time-in-48-hours/
It's a few days old already, but relevant. Much more has happened to LUNA since.
coindesk is a pretty decent place for crypto info. Most of the major media outlets are interested in their clicks and have been cheerleaders against crypto from the outset.
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Very interesting. In B2B SaaS our average cost per sales rep has increased 2x-3x. Those tend to be high-ish turnover roles and labor knows they're in high demand. It's driving our CAC through the roof. Even though net retention is high, growth-stage companies need to acquire new customers like crazy to keep pace.
It sounds like your biz/industry is established enough that it's more about growing accounts, not losing accounts, and maybe poaching a few from your frenemies?
Actually, you're pretty spot on. We're in 4 different but similar markets.
We've done processing favors (at a cost of course) for our competitors in the past (machine failures with a lengthy repair time) knowing we may need a reciprocal favor in the future. I've heard of manufacturers with long memories for those who violate.
For example, on our orthodontic wire, we buy raw material from our competitor. Our competitor makes the raw and also does finished wire. Our finished wire is more expensive because we don't control the source, but our quality is that much better on the finished wire that we maintain solid sales. We tried to do internally but the capital investment unfortunately didn't justify the expense to properly develop.
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Only adjacent to your question because I was in on COIN early, but don't actually trade crypto itself. But I'm trying to time the bottom and double down here pretty shortly. To Hards' point, this is just the volatility of crypto, so for me the real bet is "is crypto here to stay?" I think the answer is yes, even though I think it will only play a secondary/cyclical role to other currencies and investments. But even that, combined with what I think is Coinbase's still relatively strong position compared to other exchanges, is good enough for me to get in at this low.
I really want to buy some more COIN this low. This level is absurd, honestly. Do I have the nards to pull the trigger. Ugh. Ask me in an hour.
Get in line, guys. Cathie Wood just bought 546,000 shares, and she's so rarely been wrong the last year and a half!
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3837819-cathie-wood-loads-up-on-the-collapsing-coinbase-grabbing-more-than-500k-shares
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Get in line, guys. Cathie Wood just bought 546,000 shares, and she's so rarely been wrong the last year and a half!
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3837819-cathie-wood-loads-up-on-the-collapsing-coinbase-grabbing-more-than-500k-shares
I bought so of course it went down.
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I bought so of course it went down.
Can you buy some gas too, aina?
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Can you buy some gas too, aina?
Lol. I buy thousands of dollars a day.
I'm doing my part!
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Get in line, guys. Cathie Wood just bought 546,000 shares, and she's so rarely been wrong the last year and a half!
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3837819-cathie-wood-loads-up-on-the-collapsing-coinbase-grabbing-more-than-500k-shares
Cathie Wood’s Ark takes a stake in GM for the first time
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/10/cathie-woods-ark-invests-in-gm-for-the-first-time.html
One week later...
GM and Ford Get Double Downgrades to Sell. Wells Fargo Sours on EVs.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/gm-ford-stock-downgrades-51652360514
The investigative stories about her investing process being basically "that sounds neat-o!" and having absolutely no portfolio risk measures are frightening if you are an investor with her.
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(wrong thread)
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All of Those Quitters? They’re at Work: The Great Resignation was in fact a moment many people traded up for a better-paying gig
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/business/great-resgination-jobs.html?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20220513&instance_id=61244&nl=dealbook®i_id=108420427&segment_id=92140&te=1&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
If Applebee’s were the solar system — and for nearly six years, to Nick Haner, it felt that way — the customer would have been the sun. Everything revolved around the customer. The customer was always right, he was told. Even when the customer spit in Mr. Haner’s face. Even when the customer screamed that her salad should have been served hot, not cold. Even when the customer ripped his $2 tip in half.
But something happened, last year, to shift that orbit. It started with the signs that Mr. Haner saw popping up in windows as he drove to work: “Now hiring!” McDonald’s was hiring. Walgreens was hiring. Taco Bell closed early because it was short staffed. Everyone in Midland, Mich., it seemed, needed workers. So Mr. Haner began to wonder: Why shouldn’t work revolve around people like him?
“It’s absolute craziness,” said Mr. Haner, 32, who quit his job at Applebee’s last summer and accepted a fully remote position in sales at a tech company. “I decided to take a chance because I was like, ‘If it doesn’t work out, there’s 100 more jobs out there that I can find.’”
More than 40 million people left their jobs last year, many in retail and hospitality. It was called the Great Resignation, and then a rush of other names: the Great Renegotiation, the Great Reshuffle, the Great Rethink. But people weren’t leaving work altogether. They still had to make money. Much of the pandemic stimulus aid stopped by the fall, and savings rates dropped to their lowest in nine years, 6.4 percent, by January. What workers realized, though, is that they could find better ways to earn a living. Higher pay. Stable hours. Flexibility. They expected more from their employers, and appeared to be getting it.
Applebee’s said the safety of its workers and guests was a priority. “Aggressive behavior of any kind is not permitted,” said Kevin Carroll, the company’s chief operations officer.
Across the country, workers were flush with opportunities and could rebuff what they’d once been forced to tolerate — whether rigid bosses or customer abuse. And to keep businesses running, bosses had to start listening.
“People have seen this as a rejection of work, but I’ve seen it as people capitalizing on an abundance of job opportunities,” said Nick Bunker, director of economic research for North America at Indeed’s hiring lab. “People do need to pay the bills.”
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I don't think we are out of the woods yet, but...
Congratulations to anyone that was buying hard-down growth tech this week! You've been rewarded with an instant 25% bump, happy Friday!
I've been buying more Cloudflare since it dipped below $55, and lamenting my other losses. (SOFI, COIN, and NERD are all down over 60% since purchase). This is my kind of gambling :)
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Seems like a much better buyer for TWTR
https://twitter.com/SnoopDogg/status/1525143525834121217
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From Seeking Alpha:
Only 31% of investors at JPMorgan's (NYSE:JPM) annual shareholder meeting voted in favor of a $52.6M stock option award that was part of CEO Jamie Dimon's 2021 compensation package. It was the first time the bank's board lost such a vote since it was introduced in 2009, and was significantly lower than the previous weakest level of investor support, which came in at 61.4% in 2015. While the shareholder vote is non-binding, the bank's board said it would take the feedback "seriously" and intended for the bonus to be a one-time event.
"The special award was extremely rare - the first in more than a decade for Mr. Dimon - and it reflected exemplary leadership and additional incentive for a successful leadership transition," said JPMorgan spokesman Joe Evangelisti. He also noted that the package was designed to keep Dimon at the helm for another five years by pegging the award to the bank's share price appreciation. Dimon would only be awarded if JPMorgan's stock rose above $148.73 in the coming years (it's currently trading at $122.18, but hit a high of $172.96 back in November).
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From Seeking Alpha:
Only 31% of investors at JPMorgan's (NYSE:JPM) annual shareholder meeting voted in favor of a $52.6M stock option award that was part of CEO Jamie Dimon's 2021 compensation package. It was the first time the bank's board lost such a vote since it was introduced in 2009, and was significantly lower than the previous weakest level of investor support, which came in at 61.4% in 2015. While the shareholder vote is non-binding, the bank's board said it would take the feedback "seriously" and intended for the bonus to be a one-time event.
"The special award was extremely rare - the first in more than a decade for Mr. Dimon - and it reflected exemplary leadership and additional incentive for a successful leadership transition," said JPMorgan spokesman Joe Evangelisti. He also noted that the package was designed to keep Dimon at the helm for another five years by pegging the award to the bank's share price appreciation. Dimon would only be awarded if JPMorgan's stock rose above $148.73 in the coming years (it's currently trading at $122.18, but hit a high of $172.96 back in November).
I would have called BS on this compensation too. A $52.6M award to get the stock price up 20% in 5 years, to a level still 10% below a recent high.
Even the weakest minded of the scoop intelligentsia could accomplish that task.
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Are we close to bottoming? Sheesh.
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I would have called BS on this compensation too. A $52.6M award to get the stock price up 20% in 5 years, to a level still 10% below a recent high.
Even the weakest minded of the scoop intelligentsia could accomplish that task.
Jesmu84 is the next CEO of JPMorgan?
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Are we close to bottoming? Sheesh.
lol
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Are we close to bottoming? Sheesh.
Not remotely
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Not remotely
Alright. Give me a heads up when I should unload my piggy bank to begin the process of getting MU prime-time/tier 1 recruits.
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Alright. Give me a heads up when I should unload my piggy bank to begin the process of getting MU prime-time/tier 1 recruits.
28k. Just messing around. If I knew, I'd be trading full time. Timing the market is almost impossible.
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Under Armour CEO Patrik Frisk will step down while remaining with the company. A few years ago, he replaced company founder Kevin Plank, who remained chairman.
UA has underperformed for years. After initial hype and promise as a supposed threat to Nike's crown, its revenue has fallen further behind Nike and Adidas -- not to mention even Asics and Puma.
As for the stock, since hitting its all-time high in mid-2019, it's down 64%.
Don't worry about Frisk and Plank, though. Frisk made $15M last year, Plank $6M. They'll manage to get by.
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Under Armour CEO Patrik Frisk will step down while remaining with the company. A few years ago, he replaced company founder Kevin Plank, who remained chairman.
UA has underperformed for years. After initial hype and promise as a supposed threat to Nike's crown, its revenue has fallen further behind Nike and Adidas -- not to mention even Asics and Puma.
As for the stock, since hitting its all-time high in mid-2019, it's down 64%.
Don't worry about Frisk and Plank, though. Frisk made $15M last year, Plank $6M. They'll manage to get by.
They make garbage. The only thing they make that’s any good are cold gear and waterproofs. The rest is inferior to Nike or Adidas
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They make garbage. The only thing they make that’s any good are cold gear and waterproofs. The rest is inferior to Nike or Adidas
And teens and preteens don't like their brand.
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And teens and preteens don't like their brand.
And they sponsor UW-Madison gear!
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They make garbage. The only thing they make that’s any good are cold gear and waterproofs. The rest is inferior to Nike or Adidas
This is what I was going to say. I only own a couple of things from them, and they're low quality.
The only thing I do like is the cold stuff and the moisture wicking items. Though I'll probably just buy better stuff from now on.
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The HS where I coached switched from Nike to UA during my time there. My first year, I got some excellent Nike gear. The UA gear I received in my second year was decidedly inferior -- though I did like one pair of shoes and one pair of socks I got.
Don't get me wrong ... I was happy to get any goods at all, as I basically was paid what today's rubles are worth. Just saying the UA gear simply wasn't as high a quality as the Nike gear.
UA had a lot of promise. They were the hot brand for a minute, especially after they signed Curry. But that was pretty short-lived.
Glad MU's gone with Jordan Brand.
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The HS where I coached switched from Nike to UA during my time there. My first year, I got some excellent Nike gear. The UA gear I received in my second year was decidedly inferior -- though I did like one pair of shoes and one pair of socks I got.
Don't get me wrong ... I was happy to get any goods at all, as I basically was paid what today's rubles are worth. Just saying the UA gear simply wasn't as high a quality as the Nike gear.
UA had a lot of promise. They were the hot brand for a minute, especially after they signed Curry. But that was pretty short-lived.
Glad MU's gone with Jordan Brand.
Ruble to dollar is higher than it was a year ago.
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Ruble to dollar is higher than it was a year ago.
Well then … it wasn’t rubles either!
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Are we at capitulation yet?
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I think capitulation is still down the road. This is a perfect storm, in a bad way, for the market and I do not think we have seen the worst on the downturn.
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I think capitulation is still down the road. This is a perfect storm, in a bad way, for the market and I do not think we have seen the worst on the downturn.
I do, too. Haven't seen the blowoff that would indicate a possible bottom.
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Are we at capitulation yet?
I've been doing little bits of buying here and there, no selling. My limit order for a bit of UNP hit while I was playing (bad) golf today.
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I've been doing little bits of buying here and there, no selling. My limit order for a bit of UNP hit while I was playing (bad) golf today.
My buy list is growing, but I won't trigger anything yet. I did write some puts for ARCC at 18 which are getting close to in-the-money, but I am completely fine taking shares at that price with a 9%+ yield if it comes to that.
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My buy list is growing, but I won't trigger anything yet. I did write some puts for ARCC at 18 which are getting close to in-the-money, but I am completely fine taking shares at that price with a 9%+ yield if it comes to that.
Good luck with that, TS. I’ve looked at ARCC and a few other REITs, as the only one I own is O. Not quite there yet.
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ARCC is a BDC rather than a REIT. I own a handful with an average yield of 8.3% as the part of my holdings where I am creating a sort of annuity.
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ARCC is a BDC rather than a REIT. I own a handful with an average yield of 8.3% as the part of my holdings where I am creating a sort of annuity.
Thanks for that correction, TS. I was getting it confused with something else.
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Doing my customer monthly price updates today.
In eases to inflation, raw material prices are down again in May as they were down in April.
Copper down ~ $0.37/lb
Tin down ~ $3.00/lb
Zinc down ~$0.20/lb
Nickel down ~$2.75/lb (Even despite continued Russia sanctions and the Ukraine war.)
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https://nypost.com/2022/06/01/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-an-economic-hurricane-is-coming/
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https://nypost.com/2022/06/01/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-an-economic-hurricane-is-coming/
I hope he'll survive it. After making only $84 million last year, JPM shareholders rejected a $53 million retention bonus.
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https://nypost.com/2022/06/01/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-an-economic-hurricane-is-coming/
If you're paying attention, he predicts the next recession every year.
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If you're paying attention, he predicts the next recession every year.
To be fair, for every boom, a bust follows, so he’ll be right eventually
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Job market still so strong that the market is foreseeing continued Fed tightening.
Meanwhile, maybe Elon is learning (doubtful, though) that being a raging egotistical a-hole and turning off the people most likely to buy your product is a bad business move.
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8.6% inflation yoy this month.
o7 my portfolio
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Job market still so strong that the market is foreseeing continued Fed tightening.
Meanwhile, maybe Elon is learning (doubtful, though) that being a raging egotistical a-hole and turning off the people most likely to buy your product is a bad business move.
Presentations at my trade show earlier this week were bullish on the economy. Short term and long term. An outside economics agency from the UK reviewed the international Wire & Cable forecast. China will be down about 2% due to "0" COVID policy. First drop in decades plus. Europe, South America, Africa and rest of Asia forecast were steady and North America is a super bright spot due to the Infrastructure Bill that will be funding all kinds of system upgrades for multiple multiple years.
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Fed with a .75% hike. Mr. Market seems to like both the raise and what Powell said at his press conference ... but given the action over the previous many sessions, the .75 seemed pretty baked in.
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Fed with a .75% hike. Mr. Market seems to like both the raise and what Powell said at his press conference ... but given the action over the previous many sessions, the .75 seemed pretty baked in.
Futures say otherwise this morning.
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Futures say otherwise this morning.
Yeah, I just saw that. Late Wednesday love turns to early Thursday hate. Oh, that wacky Mr. Market. Trying to decide if I want to do a little buying today.
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Anyone out here trying to catch a falling knife?
I'm just DCAing into my lazy portfolio through this, but prices on growth tech are making my mouth water.
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Anyone out here trying to catch a falling knife?
I'm just DCAing into my lazy portfolio through this, but prices on growth tech are making my mouth water.
Its ugly out there. I know the market has conditioned everyone to buy the minute we get a sizeable pullback, but I don't love market conditions. Powell actually handled himself well for once yesterday, hence the rally, but the reactions this morning can't be encouraging in any way. There hasn't even been a minor bounce.
If the SPX doesn't recover 3705 today or tomorrow, I think bleeding continues. Not a lot to be bullish about
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Its ugly out there. I know the market has conditioned everyone to buy the minute we get a sizeable pullback, but I don't love market conditions. Powell actually handled himself well for once yesterday, hence the rally, but the reactions this morning can't be encouraging in any way. There hasn't even been a minor bounce.
If the SPX doesn't recover 3705 today or tomorrow, I think bleeding continues. Not a lot to be bullish about
The lack of any bulls in this market has me feeling like it's about time to buy. I'm just not willing to put my money where my mouth is.
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This is a note we sent to our clients on Tuesday.
U.S. equity markets tumbled today, Monday, June 13, continuing a sharp fall that started Friday following a hotter than expected inflation report showing prices rising at the highest rate since the early 1980s. In response, markets are recalibrating their expectations in anticipation of more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is scrambling to quell inflation after being surprised by the speed and intensity of price increases. The market now expects the Fed to increase its target rate by up to 0.75 percent at Wednesday’s meeting instead of the traditional and more gradual pace of 0.25 percent per meeting. We expect additional higher rate increases to follow as the Fed attempts to slow demand enough to dampen price increases.
Markets currently expect the Fed to hike rates above 3 percent this year, getting closer to 4 percent in 2023, well above estimates when rates start to become restrictive. This should start slowing the economy and in turn, inflation. There already are signs of moderating economic activity as higher mortgage rates are starting to dampen housing activity and jobless unemployment claims are ticking up. Retail inventories are rising, a sign of possible downward pressure prices. The outlook for energy and food prices, however, remain tethered
to geopolitical events in the near term, such as the war in Ukraine. Further energy price increases are possible through the summer. Also, supply chains remain vulnerable to continued lockdowns in China as the country seeks to control COVID outbreaks, which could further pressure inflation.
Our base case remains that the economy will slow meaningfully but avoid a recession, although the
probability of a recession has risen. While inflation is eating into consumer budgets, household balance sheets are in good shape in aggregate, with low debt levels and high savings. The job market remains strong. Corporate balance sheets also are strong. Should the economy tip over into a recession, the drawdown likely will be moderate given the relatively strong state of the economy outside of inflation and a lack of large structure imbalances.
With the S&P 500 down more than 21 percent year-to-date following the market close, and NASDAQ down more than 30 percent, equity valuations appear more attractive, having fallen from lofty levels. Investors, however, can expect continued volatility ahead until there are tangible signs that inflation is sustainably slowing.
As always, investors should have a long-term investment horizon and consult with a financial advisor, especially in periods of high market volatility.
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I always appreciate your dispassionate, practical posts about investing.
As always, investors should have a long term investment horizon.
I love that.
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I always appreciate your dispassionate, practical posts about investing.
As always, investors should have a long term investment horizon.
I love that.
True - take the long view. Things (globally) will eventually improve. Couple that with the inevitable change in leadership here and long term looks much better than the current mess.
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change in leadership here
Where are rocky and ‘topper going?
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True - take the long view. Things (globally) will eventually improve. Couple that with the inevitable change in leadership here and long term looks much better than the current mess.
Statistics aren't on your side, but okay.
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Where are rocky and ‘topper going?
And is SoCalWarrior coming back?!
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I guess people don't really gas is over $5 a gallon. I had the longest drive ever in 40 years from Connecticut to JFK airport and it was pure congestion. 1.5h to 1.75h typical with traffic. Took almost 3h and if I arrived 2 minutes later they weren't letting me check my bag in.
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I guess people don't really gas is over $5 a gallon. I had the longest drive ever in 40 years from Connecticut to JFK airport and it was pure congestion. 1.5h to 1.75h typical with traffic. Took almost 3h and if I arrived 2 minutes later they weren't letting me check my bag in.
It is crap ton packed everywhere. More cars. More driving. More spending.
It's the most bizarre of times reconciling the warning signs and people either oblivious or unconcerned about them. Buona fortuna to all of us invested.
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I learned a long grim ago not to correlate crowded stores , restaurants and roads with the markets and the economy. For example even at the bottom of a recession , places like The Cheesecake Factory are always full.
We are in stagflation right now which is not a conducive environment for investing . That is why we are in a bear market . I am holding the positions we have but not establishing any new positions .
I have been about 60 percent cash for a while so plenty of spare firepower .
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Herman
I am with you, over 75% cash and sitting still until the dust clears. As for things being busy, majority of people are normally behind the curve. When most people are at home down the road, I will be the guy out and about.
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Herman
I am with you, over 75% cash and sitting still until the dust clears. As for things being busy, majority of people are normally behind the curve. When most people are at home down the road, I will be the guy out and about.
It sure looks like we're going to have a prolonged recession Goose. Remember when I wrote in April that our economy is a freaking disaster and was vilified by most here? Long-term I have faith in our people and the market but these are very difficult times. Powell acted far too late frankly.
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Muggs
I thought you were spot on with your evaluation of the economy. IMO, there are a lot of people out there convincing themselves this is just a normal or correction in the market and the economy is not that bad. I love taking risks in life, including investing, and I have never been this cautious in my life.
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Muggs
I thought you were spot on with your evaluation of the economy. IMO, there are a lot of people out there convincing themselves this is just a normal or correction in the market and the economy is not that bad. I love taking risks in life, including investing, and I have never been this cautious in my life.
Part of the problem I'm having is that I strongly believe in growth stocks/index funds. They've done extremely well since I began investing which began while I was at MU with the tutelage of my grandfather. I'm still hesitant to go that much (75%) in cash because I don't plan on touching my investment income for 20 yrs.
That said, I'm not confident at all that short-term decisions from current leadership will have much (if any ) positive impact on our inflation woes and the market. In fact, they could exacerbate things further Goose which does frighten me. I hope to God I'm wrong but I certainly don't see any quick fixes. I would like to see better cooperation between our leaders and the private sector but I'm not optimistic that will happen.
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Muggs
Stay the course, you have a lot more years than I do and I gave my kids the same advice. There will be better days ahead.
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Part of the problem I'm having is that I strongly believe in growth stocks/index funds. They've done extremely well since I began investing which began while I was at MU with the tutelage of my grandfather. I'm still hesitant to go that much (75%) in cash because I don't plan on touching my investment income for 20 yrs.
That said, I'm not confident at all that short-term decisions from current leadership will have much (if any ) positive impact on our inflation woes and the market. In fact, they could exacerbate things further Goose which does frighten me. I hope to God I'm wrong but I certainly don't see any quick fixes. I would like to see better cooperation between our leaders and the private sector but I'm not optimistic that will happen.
What decisions do you think they should be making?
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Part of the problem I'm having is that I strongly believe in growth stocks/index funds. They've done extremely well since I began investing which began while I was at MU with the tutelage of my grandfather. I'm still hesitant to go that much (75%) in cash because I don't plan on touching my investment income for 20 yrs.
That said, I'm not confident at all that short-term decisions from current leadership will have much (if any ) positive impact on our inflation woes and the market. In fact, they could exacerbate things further Goose which does frighten me. I hope to God I'm wrong but I certainly don't see any quick fixes. I would like to see better cooperation between our leaders and the private sector but I'm not optimistic that will happen.
Always wise to let your whackadoodle political biases guide your investment decisions.
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Always wise to let your whackadoodle political biases guide your investment decisions.
I don't necessarily think its "whackadoodle". Also, administrations can be incapable or unable of correcting financial issues that have been percolating for awhile, while not necessarily exacerbating them. I don't think the current administration is solely to blame for inflation or other factors cause a major storm (and trying assign blame as such is actually whackadoodle political bias) but I don't have a ton of faith in the proper levels being pulled to correct it in the near term.
Politics has a huge play in investment decisions, short of the old "the market always goes up so ill just blindly buy indexes and call it all noise" mentality. So using that as an input is totally fair IMO.
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If inflation was limited to the U.S., there might be an argument that the administration was responsible, but it is a worldwide phenomenon. In retrospect, too much money was poured into the system to try to fight off the effects of COVID, by each of the last two administrations, but the persistent supply chain problems, coupled with a serious war, are obviously responsible as well or we wouldn't be seeing inflation globally.
What do you think the proper levers to pull in the short term are, beyond jacking up interest rates?
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If inflation was limited to the U.S., there might be an argument that the administration was responsible, but it is a worldwide phenomenon. In retrospect, too much money was poured into the system to try to fight off the effects of COVID, by each of the last two administrations, but the persistent supply chain problems, coupled with a serious war, are obviously responsible as well or we wouldn't be seeing inflation globally.
What do you think the proper levers to pull in the short term are, beyond jacking up interest rates?
I don't entirely disagree.
Interest rate hikes obviously. Stopping discussion of student loan forgiveness, which would be the wrong lever. Some serious cuts elsewhere in government if they insist on spending heavily, like the infrastructure bill.
I'm not totally sure what they do in the short term, I'm not an economist, but they definitely f-ed up playing it off as insignificant or transitory awhile ago.
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We are a failed state in the sense that gridlocked congress refuses to do anything of substance to address major issues related to the economy. There's only so much you can do through the executive branch (though I'd argue they aren't doing enough).
That leaves the fed. And they have very few tools to use to fix problems.
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If inflation was limited to the U.S., there might be an argument that the administration was responsible, but it is a worldwide phenomenon. In retrospect, too much money was poured into the system to try to fight off the effects of COVID, by each of the last two administrations, but the persistent supply chain problems, coupled with a serious war, are obviously responsible as well or we wouldn't be seeing inflation globally.
What do you think the proper levers to pull in the short term are, beyond jacking up interest rates?
First of all I never meant to intimate Biden in particular is more responsible than the Fed or Powell. He absolutely should have acted much sooner and the "transitory" narrative was absolute nonsense. Most of the Wall Steet Journal op ed's place most of the blame on the Fed. I think the stimulus package was also a huge mistake. There are other things that I think could be done as far as our energy issues and gas prices but because they have political implications, and ideologically we have vast disagreement on both sides, I don't think arguing about it serves much purpose.
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I don't entirely disagree.
Interest rate hikes obviously. Stopping discussion of student loan forgiveness, which would be the wrong lever. Some serious cuts elsewhere in government if they insist on spending heavily, like the infrastructure bill.
I'm not totally sure what they do in the short term, I'm not an economist, but they definitely f-ed up playing it off as insignificant or transitory awhile ago.
The student loan forgiveness is all about politics, not economics. And Biden really effed this up from the beginning when he said this.
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1241869418981920769
But then hasn't done anything about that. IMO you are going to have a huge number of young voters sitting out in 2022 and 2024 unless he addresses this. And the Dems are going to need every vote they can get.
But it would be a terrible economic decision. Not to mention it doesn't address the underlying problem.
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I don't entirely disagree.
Interest rate hikes obviously. Stopping discussion of student loan forgiveness, which would be the wrong lever. Some serious cuts elsewhere in government if they insist on spending heavily, like the infrastructure bill.
I'm not totally sure what they do in the short term, I'm not an economist, but they definitely f-ed up playing it off as insignificant or transitory awhile ago.
There would be inflation no matter who was running things but this administration is batting .000 when it comes to anticipating the consequences of their chosen policies.
We’ve gone from hearing “the economy is humming, don’t worry about ‘transitory’ inflation” to “a recession isn’t inevitable” in literally almost no time. Imagine if Manchin hadn’t blocked “Build Back Better” where inflation would be headed. And student loan “forgiveness” (payment transfer to taxpayers) would make bad worse.
And it’s not just inflation - everywhere incompetence runs rampant. Afghanistan, the border, energy policy - consequences obvious to many catch them by surprise. The plant that produces 40% of the country’s baby formula is shut down in February and they’re dumbfounded by dangerous shortages months later.
Meanwhile, the President is stumbling through speeches, tripping on the stairs, shaking hands with the invisible man and falling off his bike - as public confidence sinks to dangerous lows.
Through it all, the buck never stops “here”. It stops in Russia, Exxon headquarters and Trump Tower - but never “here”.
Sorry for the politics - but it amazes me that a board so keen at pointing out mistakes from 2016-2020 (and there were many) is now so sanguine in the face of the current sh!t storm.
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There would be inflation no matter who was running things but this administration is batting .000 when it comes to anticipating the consequences of their chosen policies.
We’ve gone from hearing “the economy is humming, don’t worry about ‘transitory’ inflation” to “a recession isn’t inevitable” in literally almost no time. Imagine if Manchin hadn’t blocked “Build Back Better” where inflation would be headed. And student loan “forgiveness” (payment transfer to taxpayers) would make bad worse.
And it’s not just inflation - everywhere incompetence runs rampant. Afghanistan, the border, energy policy - consequences obvious to many catch them by surprise. The plant that produces 40% of the country’s baby formula is shut down in February and they’re dumbfounded by dangerous shortages months later.
Meanwhile, the President is stumbling through speeches, tripping on the stairs, shaking hands with the invisible man and falling off his bike - as public confidence sinks to dangerous lows.
Through it all, the buck never stops “here”. It stops in Russia, Exxon headquarters and Trump Tower - but never “here”.
Sorry for the politics - but it amazes me that a board so keen at pointing out mistakes from 2016-2020 (and there were many) is now so sanguine in the face of the current sh!t storm.
Biden hasn’t been very good.
But a lot of the above is force-fed nonsense for the addle-minded.
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Physically we were saying the same thing about Trump. Needing help down ramps, needing two hands to drink water, u able to finish sentences without random non sequitirs.
Politically, Biden is who I always thought he was. Which is not a compliment.
Trump was worse, and worse than I thought he would be. The most corrupt, incompetent president in history and an existential threat to democracy itself. Which isn't over yet.
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Physically we were saying the same thing about Trump. Needing help down ramps, needing two hands to drink water, u able to finish sentences without random non sequitirs.
Politically, Biden is who I always thought he was. Which is not a compliment.
Trump was worse, and worse than I thought he would be. The most corrupt, incompetent president in history and an existential threat to democracy itself. Which isn't over yet.
YeAh BuT BiDeN FeLl OfF hIs BiKe!!!
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Any tips for investing?
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Don't panic. Stay in it for the long haul. Be patient and look for value.
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YeAh BuT BiDeN FeLl OfF hIs BiKe!!!
They can both stink out loud. "Hes not as bad/corrupt/divisive as Trump" isn't exactly a defense of the administration. You can agree that he was a better choice than more Trump and think that Trump was awful...but still point out the obvious concerns both policy and health wise.
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Who will be the best potential Dem or Republican candidate in 2024? Because honestly I don't really care for any of these names that are being bandied about. Maybe Biden does want a 2nd term, he certainly can't say he doesn't right now, but if he bolts who would you guys think are the two best options?
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They can both stink out loud. "Hes not as bad/corrupt/divisive as Trump" isn't exactly a defense of the administration. You can agree that he was a better choice than more Trump and think that Trump was awful...but still point out the obvious concerns both policy and health wise.
I agree with this
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Who will be the best potential Dem or Republican candidate in 2024? Because honestly I don't really care for any of these names that are being bandied about. Maybe Biden does want a 2nd term, he certainly can't say he doesn't right now, but if he bolts who would you guys think are the two best options?
I think Dem establishment is looking (foolishly) at Kamala or Pete
I think GOP nom is gonna be Desantis if not Trump
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They can both stink out loud. "Hes not as bad/corrupt/divisive as Trump" isn't exactly a defense of the administration. You can agree that he was a better choice than more Trump and think that Trump was awful...but still point out the obvious concerns both policy and health wise.
Which I acknowledged.
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I think Dem establishment is looking (foolishly) at Kamala or Pete
I think GOP nom is gonna be Desantis if not Trump
I agree on DeSantis. I could see Warren getting back in there for the dems. Her aggressive tax plans on assets and income resonate with younger voters concerned with excess wealth at the top. I think it's a fair debate as I desperately try to relate back to investing...
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I think Dem establishment is looking (foolishly) at Kamala or Pete
I think GOP nom is gonna be Desantis if not Trump
I agree with you but don't care for all of them. Maybe Klobuchar runs again and Nikki Haley? The fact that our choices could be Biden v Trump again is extremely disturbing and chronically depressing.
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I think Dem establishment is looking (foolishly) at Kamala or Pete
I think GOP nom is gonna be Desantis if not Trump
Agree.
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Physically we were saying the same thing about Trump. Needing help down ramps, needing two hands to drink water, u able to finish sentences without random non sequitirs.
Politically, Biden is who I always thought he was. Which is not a compliment.
Trump was worse, and worse than I thought he would be. The most corrupt, incompetent president in history and an existential threat to democracy itself. Which isn't over yet.
What about Trump, what about Trump, what about Trump.
He hasn’t been President for 18 months. It’s what about Joe time now.
But you honestly believe that physically/cognitively Trump in 2018 equals Biden in 2022? C’mon, man!
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Whatever happened to MUPoop?
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But a lot of the above is force-fed nonsense for the addle-minded.
Nonsense.
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S&P 500 futures up 1.6% as I write this.
Will be interesting to see if the market actually is up at the open, if it moves higher or lower, and if it's a sign of anything in the future or just a one-day blip.
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S&P 500 futures up 1.6% as I write this.
Will be interesting to see if the market actually is up at the open, if it moves higher or lower, and if it's a sign of anything in the future or just a one-day blip.
It should be an interesting day. We did bounce back quickly after the initial Covid hit in early 2020.
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Talking to some of my steel suppliers here at the Wire and Tube Show here in Germany, tell me I should see steel prices finally dropping. The industry has finally increased enough production to catch up to demand. What my copper alloy suppliers already saw 2.5 months ago
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What about Trump, what about Trump, what about Trump.
He hasn’t been President for 18 months. It’s what about Joe time now.
But you honestly believe that physically/cognitively Trump in 2018 equals Biden in 2022? C’mon, man!
Trump couldn't get on a bike. And yes, I think Trump is worse cognitively than Biden.
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Talking to some of my steel suppliers here at the Wire and Tube Show here in Germany, tell me I should see steel prices finally dropping. The industry has finally increased enough production to catch up to demand. What my copper alloy suppliers already saw 2.5 months ago
Wire and tube show, a,ina?
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Talking to some of my steel suppliers here at the Wire and Tube Show here in Germany, tell me I should see steel prices finally dropping. The industry has finally increased enough production to catch up to demand. What my copper alloy suppliers already saw 2.5 months ago
Just in time to get slammed by rising interest rates worldwide and cooling economies!
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I realize there isn't necessarily a direct correlation between the two, but with the Dow up 700+ points today, and $DIS down almost 1%, there's no way the $DIS board renews Chapek's contract early next year, right? I'm trying to avoid any political talk around $DIS here, but the stock has been curbstomped since Iger left. If their board is serious about Chapek being re-upped, negotiations would have to start soon (his contract is up in Feb). I don't own $DIS currently, but I think the next month may present a buy opportunity if you can get out in front of Chapek leaving and an Iger return. I 100% believe Iger would love to be the white knight to the rescue.
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I realize there isn't necessarily a direct correlation between the two, but with the Dow up 700+ points today, and $DIS down almost 1%, there's no way the $DIS board renews Chapek's contract early next year, right? I'm trying to avoid any political talk around $DIS here, but the stock has been curbstomped since Iger left. If their board is serious about Chapek being re-upped, negotiations would have to start soon (his contract is up in Feb). I don't own $DIS currently, but I think the next month may present a buy opportunity if you can get out in front of Chapek leaving and an Iger return. I 100% believe Iger would love to be the white knight to the rescue.
Disney right now is a great example for when people are like "how important is a CEO anyways? What do they even do?"
But otherwise I'm pretty much with you. Iger was the chairman during Chapek's failings. He's 71, so young enough to come in and right the ship for a couple years while finding/grooming a new successor. Lord knows they need it. Amazing that the company is performing as it is while Marvel is a literal Easy Button money printing machine
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Disney right now is a great example for when people are like "how important is a CEO anyways? What do they even do?"
But otherwise I'm pretty much with you. Iger was the chairman during Chapek's failings. He's 71, so young enough to come in and right the ship for a couple years while finding/grooming a new successor. Lord knows they need it. Amazing that the company is performing as it is while Marvel is a literal Easy Button money printing machine
Can't speak for others but I, for one, do not underestimate the value of a great CEO.
My main problem is when a company rewards a horrible CEO with a 8- or 9-figure payment upon firing or demoting him or her. "Thanks for screwing us royally and setting the company back several years. Enjoy your generational wealth."
As is the case with truly world-class athletes and entertainers, CEOs who are among the best at what they do deserve the riches IMHO. I'm a capitalist, just like you are. I have no choice; there's no better economic system.
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My inlaws are probably dropping damn near 6 figures to take the whole damn family to Disney for a week. 17 people total. It's ridiculous how expensive the parks have gotten. And everything is extra now, fast passes are gone, some rides you have to book at 6 am. Just stupid. The only ones excited are the little grand daughters and my MIL. All this in 93* heat w/ humidity. FML.
To tie it back to investing, with these prices, even more insane that their performance as a company is down.
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My inlaws are probably dropping damn near 6 figures to take the whole damn family to Disney for a week. 17 people total. It's ridiculous how expensive the parks have gotten. And everything is extra now, fast passes are gone, some rides you have to book at 6 am. Just stupid. The only ones excited are the little grand daughters and my MIL. All this in 93* heat w/ humidity. FML.
To tie it back to investing, with these prices, even more insane that their performance as a company is down.
Jesus, that sounds terrible
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Jesus, that sounds terrible
It probably won't be so bad, I'm sure his family is fine and ZFB is just the black sheep.
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Disney is on pace to earn ~$4.00/share this year. While that is well below their pre-COVID peak, it's also well above their '20 and '21 numbers. Revenue will easily exceed their pre-COVID peak.
The stock price is way, way down, but I would argue it is down from an irrational high, not that the company isn't preforming well. The stock price hasn't performed well, but I think it has merely dropped into fair value territory from way over bought.
I recently took a very small position, and am comfortable adding to it at this level.
That said, I think the prices at their parks are insane and you couldn't pay me enough to go, but for now it seems that they are charging what the people will bear and the public is happily paying it.
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Disney is on pace to earn ~$4.00/share this year. While that is well below their pre-COVID peak, it's also well above their '20 and '21 numbers. Revenue will easily exceed their pre-COVID peak.
The stock price is way, way down, but I would argue it is down from an irrational high, not that the company isn't preforming well. The stock price hasn't performed well, but I think it has merely dropped into fair value territory from way over bought.
I recently took a very small position, and am comfortable adding to it at this level.
That said, I think the prices at their parks are insane and you couldn't pay me enough to go, but for now it seems that they are charging what the people will bear and the public is happily paying it.
I tend to agree with this take. I haven't decided on a price yet, and DIS isn't really the kind of stock I like to buy because it pays no dividend (and in fact eliminated its fairly low dividend during Covid), but this is a valuable public company so it is on my watch list.
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That said, I think the prices at their parks are insane and you couldn't pay me enough to go, but for now it seems that they are charging what the people will bear and the public is happily paying it.
This is what is so fascinating about Disney as a company to me. The parks are pretty much inelastic and non-cyclical. For every person that shares ZFB's sentiment about going to Disney World, you ride a shuttle or tram at the park with their polar opposite who visits multiple times a year...from out of state.
My old roommate was from the greater Cleveland area, and he had relatives who didn't have passports. This came into play cause they didn't attend a family trip to Cancun for his Mom's 60th. They said something along the lines of "passports are for fancy rich people who want to look at old stuff in Europe. We don't have money for that." Meanwhile, they went to Disney AT LEAST twice a year, and that dated back before they even had kids. And they would always stay at a Disney property. That easily costs what it would take to go to Europe.
Between the parks, and Marvel, and the insane brand equity that goes with all the affiliated Disney merch revenue, it makes you realize how much stuff they are in that must be a profit drain (cough cough ESPN cough).
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This is what is so fascinating about Disney as a company to me. The parks are pretty much inelastic and non-cyclical. For every person that shares ZFB's sentiment about going to Disney World, you ride a shuttle or tram at the park with their polar opposite who visits multiple times a year...from out of state.
My old roommate was from the greater Cleveland area, and he had relatives who didn't have passports. This came into play cause they didn't attend a family trip to Cancun for his Mom's 60th. They said something along the lines of "passports are for fancy rich people who want to look at old stuff in Europe. We don't have money for that." Meanwhile, they went to Disney AT LEAST twice a year, and that dated back before they even had kids. And they would always stay at a Disney property. That easily costs what it would take to go to Europe.
Between the parks, and Marvel, and the insane brand equity that goes with all the affiliated Disney merch revenue, it makes you realize how much stuff they are in that must be a profit drain (cough cough ESPN cough).
We know personally several adult Disney people that went multiple times in a year that are done with the parks. My wife is in trip planning Facebook groups, a lot of the same sentiment there too.
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It probably won't be so bad, I'm sure his family is fine and ZFB is just the black sheep.
I'm the favorite son in law.
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How low is THAT bar?
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We know personally several adult Disney people that went multiple times in a year that are done with the parks. My wife is in trip planning Facebook groups, a lot of the same sentiment there too.
Due to cost? Wow. I believe you but thats really surprising and counters most of the empirical evidence Ive experienced. Though I'm sure there is a bevy of matching custom Mickey and Minnie t shirt clad couples ready to fill their void.
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Due to cost? Wow. I believe you but thats really surprising and counters most of the empirical evidence Ive experienced. Though I'm sure there is a bevy of matching custom Mickey and Minnie t shirt clad couples ready to fill their void.
You just run with the ADF crowd, I guess. 🙃
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How low is THAT bar?
Like a fųcking limbo pole.
Wife has 3 brothers and no sisters.
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Like a fųcking limbo pole.
Wife has 3 brothers and no sisters.
That doesn’t mean you’re the only son-in-law.
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I don't necessarily think its "whackadoodle". Also, administrations can be incapable or unable of correcting financial issues that have been percolating for awhile, while not necessarily exacerbating them. I don't think the current administration is solely to blame for inflation or other factors cause a major storm (and trying assign blame as such is actually whackadoodle political bias) but I don't have a ton of faith in the proper levels being pulled to correct it in the near term.
Politics has a huge play in investment decisions, short of the old "the market always goes up so ill just blindly buy indexes and call it all noise" mentality. So using that as an input is totally fair IMO.
Hard agree.
Yoinking the interest rate lever as the only way to combat what is happening is a terrible idea. But short of divesting in China (another bad idea) we are going to have short and long term problems fixing supply side inflation. I don't have the answers, but it'd be nice if we could use a carrot to get it's population vaccinated. The zero Covid policy that they're employing is absolutely wrecking supply for the US markets. And when supply decreases, demand increases and prices follow. Long term, it would be nice to find multiple places to source our 'needs' from instead of just China.
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Due to cost? Wow. I believe you but thats really surprising and counters most of the empirical evidence Ive experienced. Though I'm sure there is a bevy of matching custom Mickey and Minnie t shirt clad couples ready to fill their void.
In my experience at Disney the people with the custom shirts are usually very large groups, and this is their family vacation for the decade and they're going all out for it.
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Just got back home after spending a week-plus in Chicagoland visiting the kids, grandkids and friends.
Stayed last night near Lexington. About an hour into our drive home we popped into Starbucks so my wife could get her daily cup o' joe. There were 16 cars in the drive-thru line, and the lobby was also packed. All waiting to buy their $5 or $7 lattes or fraps or whatever. This was in London, KY, which is pretty close to the middle of nowhere.
Couldn't get more anecdotal than this ... but I still might need to buy a little more SBUX stock this week!
Also anecdotal but some might find interesting (or not): Paid $4.19 per gallon for gas in that area, too. By far our cheapest fill of the trip (and in many months).
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Just got back home after spending a week-plus in Chicagoland visiting the kids, grandkids and friends.
Stayed last night near Lexington. About an hour into our drive home we popped into Starbucks so my wife could get her daily cup o' joe. There were 16 cars in the drive-thru line, and the lobby was also packed. All waiting to buy their $5 or $7 lattes or fraps or whatever. This was in London, KY, which is pretty close to the middle of nowhere.
Couldn't get more anecdotal than this ... but I still might need to buy a little more SBUX stock this week!
Also anecdotal but some might find interesting (or not): Paid $4.19 per gallon for gas in that area, too. By far our cheapest fill of the trip (and in many months).
Starbucks is guaranteeing worker access to abortion services. But only for non-union employees
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Starbucks is guaranteeing worker access to abortion services. But only for non-union employees
Well, the union can bargain for that. That's how things work.
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Starbucks is guaranteeing worker access to abortion services. But only for non-union employees
I’ll leave abortion discussion to the thread that’s dedicated to it.
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I realize there isn't necessarily a direct correlation between the two, but with the Dow up 700+ points today, and $DIS down almost 1%, there's no way the $DIS board renews Chapek's contract early next year, right?
The answer is apparently yes, there is a way.
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Just got back home after spending a week-plus in Chicagoland visiting the kids, grandkids and friends.
Stayed last night near Lexington. About an hour into our drive home we popped into Starbucks so my wife could get her daily cup o' joe. There were 16 cars in the drive-thru line, and the lobby was also packed. All waiting to buy their $5 or $7 lattes or fraps or whatever. This was in London, KY, which is pretty close to the middle of nowhere.
Couldn't get more anecdotal than this ... but I still might need to buy a little more SBUX stock this week!
Also anecdotal but some might find interesting (or not): Paid $4.19 per gallon for gas in that area, too. By far our cheapest fill of the trip (and in many months).
Ha. I've spent a couple nights in London, KY.
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Ha. I've spent a couple nights in London, KY.
Been there myself as well. The Abbey Restaurant had solid food .
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In a stunning revelation that will surprise no one, Musk is trying to weasel out of his purchase agreement with Twitter.
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In a stunning revelation that will surprise no one, Musk is trying to weasel out of his purchase agreement with Twitter.
IMO, it was all manipulation of stock prices from the start.
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IMO, it was all manipulation of stock prices from the start.
With a huge, huge dash of ego and hubris and general unnatural carnal knowledgeery
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Beat. Raise. Rinse and repeat.
Boring!
https://www.barrons.com/articles/cvs-earnings-guidance-51659523403?siteid=yhoof2
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I don't think we are out of the woods yet, but...
Congratulations to anyone that was buying hard-down growth tech this week! You've been rewarded with an instant 25% bump, happy Friday!
I've been buying more Cloudflare since it dipped below $55, and lamenting my other losses. (SOFI, COIN, and NERD are all down over 60% since purchase). This is my kind of gambling :)
Just applauding and fingers crossed you held onto NET. I got in right around $54 with a solid position and with yesterdays earnings call up 26%.
👏🏼 👏🏼 👏🏼
Edit: Make that 35% ;D
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Nice, congrats.
Wish I had been braver with Snowflake but I missed the bounce there.
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Just applauding and fingers crossed you held onto NET. I got in right around $54 with a solid position and with yesterdays earnings call up 26%.
👏🏼 👏🏼 👏🏼
Edit: Make that 35% ;D
Congrats! Oh yeah, I have increased my NET position just over twofold right around your entry price. I also have a few $115 January 2024 calls that I picked up for a reasonable price last week that are up ~100%.
Cloudflare seems to be doing all the right things and I'm in it for the long haul.
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Signet Jewelers buying Blue Nile for $360MM. I'm obviously close to this deal on both fronts but this is BAFFLING.
Blue Nile was set to go public via SPAC with an enterprise value of just under $700MM. Now just 2 months later, they are selling for $300MM less. Even given that its an all cash deal, I'm still puzzled, especially since they were taken private 6 years ago for $500MM.
The company is undoubtedly in better financial shape AND brand shape than 2016 and Ive seen first hand behind the curtains at some of the tactical spending and clean up they've done. Their current CEO is very impressive and pragmatic. So there has to be something SIGNIFICANT going on behind the scenes for this to happen like this. Especially with a shrewd operator like Bain Capital holding the purse strings.
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Signet Jewelers buying Blue Nile for $360MM. I'm obviously close to this deal on both fronts but this is BAFFLING.
Blue Nile was set to go public via SPAC with an enterprise value of just under $700MM. Now just 2 months later, they are selling for $300MM less. Even given that its an all cash deal, I'm still puzzled, especially since they were taken private 6 years ago for $500MM.
The company is undoubtedly in better financial shape AND brand shape than 2016 and Ive seen first hand behind the curtains at some of the tactical spending and clean up they've done. Their current CEO is very impressive and pragmatic. So there has to be something SIGNIFICANT going on behind the scenes for this to happen like this. Especially with a shrewd operator like Bain Capital holding the purse strings.
In my previous job (2016-2020), Signet was my biggest customer, I was in Akron almost every other week for a while. That company was on life support back in 2018/2019, it’s amazing to me how the pandemic really helped them out. They were closing hundreds of stores a year (Jared and Zales mainly) and I really didn’t think they were going to make it (a lot of people there told me they thought the same thing).
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In my previous job (2016-2020), Signet was my biggest customer, I was in Akron almost every other week for a while. That company was on life support back in 2018/2019, it’s amazing to me how the pandemic really helped them out. They were closing hundreds of stores a year (Jared and Zales mainly) and I really didn’t think they were going to make it (a lot of people there told me they thought the same thing).
You caught the tail end of the glory days. We likely knew a number of people in common.
The management shift coinciding with the Zales acquisition just changed the culture there. They went from marketing geniuses to the Walmart of jewelry. But I agree with you. I never thought they would implode, but I thought a significant restructuring would need to occur. They managed to pull out of the tailspin but that place bears no resemblance to the company 3/5/10 years ago. Around 2017, I had about 25 people I or my company colleagues could call and chat with there. That number dwindled to 1 by this year and that person just left. Our day to day contact has changed 4 times since the start of 2021. And the way they handle their PnL is abysmal.
Blue Nile recently ran the way Signet used to. Not shocking as their advisory team had some solid Signet alums. But I fear them going the same way.
From a pure stock perspective, hard to get a read. They are terribly run with bad strategy and top leadership, IMO. But they are huge and keep absorbing competitors.
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It never fails...whenever a BDC or REIT issues more equity, the stock inevitably takes a hit. This frequently true for all stocks, of course, but what people seem to fail to understand is that BDCs and REITs immediately use the additional capital to make investments that increase their FFO and FAD.
MAIN is down more than 4.5% today on an equity raise, currently at 42.80. If you are looking for a short-term trade, it will likely bounce back up in the next day or two.
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It never fails...whenever a BDC or REIT issues more equity, the stock inevitably takes a hit. This frequently true for all stocks, of course, but what people seem to fail to understand is that BDCs and REITs immediately use the additional capital to make investments that increase their FFO and FAD.
MAIN is down more than 4.5% today on an equity raise, currently at 42.80. If you are looking for a short-term trade, it will likely bounce back up in the next day or two.
Its just a function of temporary dilution effects. It would happen even if a company said "we're issuing equity, raising $XX and using $XX to invest in Y that will bring a return of 25% by Q2". Of course it will bounce back, its just the near term.
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Its just a function of temporary dilution effects. It would happen even if a company said "we're issuing equity, raising $XX and using $XX to invest in Y that will bring a return of 25% by Q2". Of course it will bounce back, its just the near term.
The distinction I'm drawing is between REITs and BDCs compared to a typical C corp. A C corp issuing equity does suffer from dilution, particularly when they state they are using the funds for general purposes or even to pay down debt; a REIT or BDC is doing more or less exactly what you said in your second sentence. Equity raises literally fuel their growth, and the knee jerk reaction by the market taking their share price down is a mispricing to be taken advantage of IMO.
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Disney is on pace to earn ~$4.00/share this year. While that is well below their pre-COVID peak, it's also well above their '20 and '21 numbers. Revenue will easily exceed their pre-COVID peak.
The stock price is way, way down, but I would argue it is down from an irrational high, not that the company isn't preforming well. The stock price hasn't performed well, but I think it has merely dropped into fair value territory from way over bought.
I recently took a very small position, and am comfortable adding to it at this level.
That said, I think the prices at their parks are insane and you couldn't pay me enough to go, but for now it seems that they are charging what the people will bear and the public is happily paying it.
DIS with a strong earnings report and a nice run.
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The distinction I'm drawing is between REITs and BDCs compared to a typical C corp. A C corp issuing equity does suffer from dilution, particularly when they state they are using the funds for general purposes or even to pay down debt; a REIT or BDC is doing more or less exactly what you said in your second sentence. Equity raises literally fuel their growth, and the knee jerk reaction by the market taking their share price down is a mispricing to be taken advantage of IMO.
No I get you. I'm just saying, any equity raise is dilution, even if there is an growth immediately after. Just saying why I get the immediate drop in stock. But I agree 90% of the time its a great buying opp
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Meme stock day.
BBBY +75%
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Meme stock day.
BBBY +75%
Wish you had told me yesterday that this was gonna happen today!
BTW, Wall Street halted trading on BBBY midday. Up 54%.
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Ally online savings went from 2+% in the early days of COVID, to 0.5% at the height of the money printing and is now back to 1.75%
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Glad I resisted the temptation of bottom fishing with Peloton. Raising prices while also slashing the sort of services that made your brand in the first place seems like a terrible idea to me.
“Peloton, today, took several steps to further advance our transformation strategy, better positioning the company for long term success as the largest, global Connected Fitness company. The moves we made include, the implementation of more strategic pricing; the elimination of our North America final mile distribution network and expansion of our third-party logistics (3PL) partnerships; the reduction of our North America Member Support team; and the signal of our intent to significantly reduce our North America retail footprint. Unfortunately, these workforce shifts result in the departure of 784 employees from the company. Any decision we make that impacts team members is not taken lightly, but these moves enable Peloton to become more efficient, cost-effective, and agile as we continue to define and lead the global Connected Fitness category.”
https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/12/23303209/peloton-layoffs-bike-tread-price-increase
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Wish you had told me yesterday that this was gonna happen today!
BTW, Wall Street halted trading on BBBY midday. Up 54%.
I had no idea, I don't follow the WSB weirdos. ;D
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I had no idea, I don't follow the WSB weirdos. ;D
Annnnnddddd....back down 22% 55% today
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Told friends and family to seriously invest in $TPL before it converted from a trust to a corporation in early 2010s. Didn’t listen to me. Same people calling for advice, I don’t have a time machine. Didn’t buy the land thesis, or water rights, or bitcoin mining flaring rights, etc. etc.
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Think Ellenson Family Reunion gives some good advice above. This dip is a great thing for you being 30 years out. If you are a buy and hold guy, ideas I'd present would be: AMRN, ETSY, ULTA, RVLV, SQ, BA, SHOP, CTAS.
Higher volatility biotechs I like (a sector invest 50% of my portfolio): AXSM, FLGT, GNPX, NVTA, SAVA, AQST, IGMS.
Bloom Energy (BE) is also an interesting company with a bright future IMO.
Invest at your own risk above. Just sharing some ideas.
I got burned on AMRN, but SAVA has been a big (and volatile) volatile winner for me. SAVA is the best risk/reward stock in the market. Their Alzheimer's drug has best in class results by a MILE. Currently in their Phase 3 study. Market cap of a pill-form, successful AD drug would likely be somewhere in the area of $75-100 Billion globally. Current market cap is $1.8 Billion.
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I got burned on AMRN, but SAVA has been a big (and volatile) volatile winner for me. SAVA is the best risk/reward stock in the market. Their Alzheimer's drug has best in class results by a MILE. Currently in their Phase 3 study. Market cap of a pill-form, successful AD drug would likely be somewhere in the area of $75-100 Billion globally. Current market cap is $1.8 Billion.
I've been invested in SAVA since early 2021, I bought for a little over $8/share. While I've done well with the stock, I am kicking myself for not trimming some when it shot over $100. I do have a standing order to sell half my position at $60, the way it's been moving lately it might get there soon, I hope it does, and I will have no problem taking profits this time around.
It is an extremely speculative position and history tells us that it is more likely to fail in phase 3 testing than to succeed. AD is extremely complex which why there haven't been any new treatments in about 30 years, not counting Biogen's recently approved drug, as that has been a bust.
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I've been invested in SAVA since early 2021, I bought for a little over $8/share. While I've done well with the stock, I am kicking myself for not trimming some when it shot over $100. I do have a standing order to sell half my position at $60, the way it's been moving lately it might get there soon, I hope it does, and I will have no problem taking profits this time around.
It is an extremely speculative position and history tells us that it is more likely to fail in phase 3 testing than to succeed. AD is extremely complex which why there haven't been any new treatments in about 30 years, not counting Biogen's recently approved drug, as that has been a bust.
I'm quite concerned by issues regarding their scientific integrity/diligence.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197458022000562?via%3Dihub (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197458022000562?via%3Dihub)
While, they found no intentional misrepresentation of data, the systematic issues with properly reporting/conducting experiments is concerning for a company once valued at $5B based on their data.
I hope their drug works, but history shows that AD drugs fail to provide significant improvement/benefit.
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I'm quite concerned by issues regarding their scientific integrity/diligence.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197458022000562?via%3Dihub (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197458022000562?via%3Dihub)
While, they found no intentional misrepresentation of data, the systematic issues with properly reporting/conducting experiments is concerning for a company once valued at $5B based on their data.
I hope their drug works, but history shows that AD drugs fail to provide significant improvement/benefit.
What you probably aren't aware of is the corruption that exists within Big Pharma. All of the noise around "data manipulation" was done via a "Citizens Petition" to the FDA, alleging data manipulation. Never in the history of the FDA had a Citizens Petition been filed while a drug was in its Phase 2 development cycle/not even on the market. Furthermore, Citizens Petitions are used for reporting safety issues of approved drugs..nothing to do with the data of a drug's development. Yet, even with that being said, SAVA's drug - Simufilam - had over 300,000 doses administered at that time and ZERO safety concerns arose.
The citizens petition first was reported as a "whistleblower" report, implying someone within Cassava Sciences alleged the data manipulation/fraud. The reality is that the petition was filed on behalf of two doctors with equity in a different Biotech who held massive short positions in SAVA. The release of this information aligned with the Theranos trial, and the match was light.
Meanwhile, since that time FIVE scientific journals have cleared SAVA of data manipulation/fraud, and publications far more credible that "Science Direct."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-evidence-data-manipulation-science-131500138.html
The reality is, is that most likely Biogen is behind the massive FUD/short and distort efforts against SAVA. The criminality of the FDA approving their AD drug (Aduhelm), against a 10-1 vote AGAINST by the FDA's own Advisory Committee illustrates all you need to know about corruption within Big Pharma/FDA. That AD drug is now virtually not used due to its poor safety profile/brain bleeding...and BIIB just paid a $900 million dollar fine for making false claims to Medicare/Medicaid by paying kick backs to doctors to prescribe Biogen drugs. Another case of corruption: See the Sackler Family/Perdue Pharma and how they bought off the FDA.
I just share the above for context. It does concern me IF* SAVA does not partner with an equally powerful Big Pharma company, as I don't trust the FDA at all.
I learned firsthand of the corruption within Big Pharma/FDA after 1 Judge invalidated all of the patents of another of my biotech holdings - AMRN - and thus torpedoed the value of AMRN's valuable drug, Vascepa. This created a market for generics.. the judge ruled stating the science was "obvious" yet the FDA put required AMRN to run a 12,000 person, multi-continent Phase 3 study to prove their science. Craziness. AMRN's drug can substantially lower cholesterol and reduce risk of heart attack and thus impact profits of other cardiovascular drugs.
I'm still holding a large position in SAVA, but my entry point was at $3.50/share, but I've also been accumulating shares in all of the $20s, $30s, $40s, $50s, $60s, $70s, and $80s last summer.
Should* the current Phase 3 results replicate their findings of their Phase 2 trials/Open Label studies - and gain FDA approval you are looking at a company with a market cap of $75-$100 billion, relatively easily. I like the risk reward dynamics here, particularly given the current market/inflation/looming recession.
Large recent insider buys have me very bullish.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-way-beat-market-storm-000106145.html
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Which one of you bought the dip today?
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My daughter and her fiance, as well as my nephew and his fiance, all closed on their first houses today. My daughter in the Baltimore/DC metroplex, my nephew in suburban Chicago.
The dream continues.
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:-X
My daughter and her fiance, as well as my nephew and his fiance, all closed on their first houses today. My daughter in the Baltimore/DC metroplex, my nephew in suburban Chicago.
The dream continues.
What kinda interest rates dey got, hey
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My nephew, the current rate. My future son-in-law, the current military rate.
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Geo-political risk certainly took a small but painful bite of my ass today. Xi seems intent on ruining China's economy for the sake of power.
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Geo-political risk certainly took a small but painful bite of my ass today. Xi seems intent on ruining China's economy for the sake of power.
I saw an article yesterday on CNBC yesterday about how a large number of companies are in process of moving manufacturing out of China and into Vietnam, Malaysia, India and other East Asian countries. I have an international customer and I'm shipping high volume to their plants in Malaysia and India and we are working on a landing a new product for their plant in Vietnam. We hardly shipped to their two China plants in the last two years. Their Worldwide Metal Purchasing Manager told us they planned to move the higher volume product out of China to other Asia locations and Mexico.
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Adidas, whose stock is already down about 25% this year, severed ties with anti-Semite Kanye West.
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Adidas, whose stock is already down about 25% this year, severed ties with anti-Semite Kanye West.
When your founder is a nazi sympathizer you have to be sensitive to certain brand perception issues.
Edit, instead of just name-slinging... here's the story of when the founder of Adidas was on trial by the Allies for being a member of the SS/Gestapo. His wife and his brother both testified against him. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Dassler#The_denazification_proceedings_and_the_family_rupture,_1946
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When your founder is a nazi sympathizer you have to be sensitive to certain brand perception issues.
it took six days after West boasted on a podcast that “I can literally say anti-semitic shyte and they cannot drop me” for Adidas to drop him.
Oh, and the founders were not nazi sympathizers - they were members of the Nazi Party.
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When your founder is a nazi sympathizer you have to be sensitive to certain brand perception issues.
Edit, instead of just name-slinging... here's the story of when the founder of Adidas was on trial by the Allies for being a member of the SS/Gestapo. His wife and his brother both testified against him. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Dassler#The_denazification_proceedings_and_the_family_rupture,_1946
If today's Adidas owners and management are Nazis, this matters.
Just the latest to drop "ye."
Being directly associated with a person who takes his or her anti-Semitic or racist thoughts public is usually a deal-killer.
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He will get hired by a cable news channel.
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If today's Adidas owners and management are Nazis, this matters.
Just the latest to drop "ye."
Being directly associated with a person who takes his or her anti-Semitic or racist thoughts public is usually a deal-killer.
My point is that the PR folks at Adidas + Puma are acutely aware of the crimes of their founders and do everything they can to distance themselves from that part of their shared history.
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My point is that the PR folks at Adidas + Puma are acutely aware of the crimes of their founders and do everything they can to distance themselves from that part of their shared history.
Ah. Understood.
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More, from the NYT's "DealBook," on how much $$$ Kanye is giving away by hating on Jews:
Adidas’s move yesterday to immediately cut ties with Kanye West, now known as Ye, was a key moment in businesses wrangling with too-hot-to-handle provocateurs. New estimates show how much the rapper and designer’s recent behavior, including antisemitic remarks and publicly wearing a shirt with a slogan tied to white supremacy, will cost him financially.
Here are three calculations of how much Ye stands to lose:
The Morningstar analyst David Swartz estimated that the Adidas-Yeezy partnership likely paid Ye in excess of $100 million a year. Overall, Swartz put the collaboration’s value at up to $2 billion.
Forbes reckoned that Adidas-Yeezy accounted for $1.5 billion of Ye’s net worth, and that its demise knocked his wealth down to $400 million.
Bloomberg reported that Adidas-Yeezy earned Ye over $500 million in royalty payments and marketing fees during the first four full years of the deal, through 2020.
Adidas is now indicating that it will sell existing Yeezy merchandise — only without the Yeezy branding. (The German sportswear giant said yesterday that it was the “sole owner” of all design rights to existing products that came out of the partnership.)
More shoes have dropped for Ye. Gap, whose partnership with him ended last month, said it was taking “immediate steps” to remove Yeezy Gap products from its stores and had shut down an affiliated website.
And two pro athletes — Aaron Donald of the Los Angeles Rams and Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics — tweeted that they were cutting ties with Donda Sports, Ye’s marketing agency.
But frankly, I'm glad he has the freedom to spew his hate and the willingness to do it so publicly. I want to know who the anti-Semites and racists and homophobes are.
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The guy is mentally ill and refuses to take his bi-polar medication.
That doesn't explain why roqqet continues to promote a slogan tied to white supremacy...or does it??
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The guy is mentally ill and refuses to take his bi-polar medication.
That doesn't explain why roqqet continues to promote a slogan tied to white supremacy...or does it??
i'm not going to take the hit for this thread going off the rails, but when one of you guys take an unprovoked ad hominem shot at me, it needs to be addressed-
everything you guys dislike or don't agree with is racist and/or white supremacy? so, what lives do not matter to you smith?
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The guy is mentally ill and refuses to take his bi-polar medication.
That doesn't explain why roqqet continues to promote a slogan tied to white supremacy...or does it??
🐷🐷
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i'm not going to take the hit for this thread going off the rails, but when one of you guys take an unprovoked ad hominem shot at me, it needs to be addressed-
everything you guys dislike or don't agree with is racist and/or white supremacy? so, what lives do not matter to you smith?
I note that you have removed that portion of your signature line, so well done.
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I note that you have removed that portion of your signature line, so well done.
🐷🐷
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I think some folks here need to know the definition of "ad hominem" attack. That would mean someone is attacking you, instead of your position. But in rockets case, his ALM position is clearly being attacked. Meanwhile, Kanye's mental stability is being attacked, but he didn't report the post.
Anyhow, back to investing.
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I think some folks here need to know the definition of "ad hominem" attack. That would mean someone is attacking you, instead of your position. But in rockets case, his ALM position is clearly being attacked. Meanwhile, Kanye's mental stability is being attacked, but he didn't report the post.
Anyhow, back to investing.
🤡🤡
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I think some folks here need to know the definition of "ad hominem" attack. That would mean someone is attacking you, instead of your position. But in rockets case, his ALM position is clearly being attacked. Meanwhile, Kanye's mental stability is being attacked, but he didn't report the post.
Anyhow, back to investing.
so what part of ALM is white superracist and which lives don't matter?
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so what part of ALM is white superracist and which lives don't matter?
Perhaps you are naive and actually don't understand the "all lives matter" phrase. Here's some reading, in case you're actually willing to learn.
https://theconversation.com/why-is-it-so-offensive-to-say-all-lives-matter-153188
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so what part of ALM is white superracist and which lives don't matter?
No one said "all lives matter" is white supremicist.
But read this...
https://againstprofphil.org/2020/06/26/the-pragmatics-of-saying-all-lives-matter-a-critique/
When we ask ourselves “Why are people saying that black lives matter?,” we can see that it is being said to draw attention to the undervaluing of black people and their lives, to the disparate treatment at the hands of police and society more generally of black people and their lives, to under-reported and often buried instances of individual racism and violence, to the existence of structural racism and violence, etc. And people are saying that black lives matter at this moment, in this country, in response to specific events, to specific rhetoric, to specific facts.
When we ask ourselves “Why are people responding to the claim that black lives matter by saying that all lives matter?,” we can see that the claim that all lives matter is being said as a challenge to the claim that black lives matter, as a way of pushing back against and drowning out the voices of those saying that black lives matter, as a way of (intentionally or unintentionally) muddying the conceptual waters and forcing listeners to choose whether it is all lives that matter or merely black lives (which, of course, is not what “black lives matter” means).
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so what part of ALM is white superracist and which lives don't matter?
Dude, that has been explained to you numerous times.
But again, I give you kudos for removing it.
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Perhaps you are naive and actually don't understand the "all lives matter" phrase. Here's some reading, in case you're actually willing to learn.
https://theconversation.com/why-is-it-so-offensive-to-say-all-lives-matter-153188
He isn't, which is why he takes cover from claims of racism under the shield of willful ignorance.
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Perhaps you are naive and actually don't understand the "all lives matter" phrase. Here's some reading, in case you're actually willing to learn.
https://theconversation.com/why-is-it-so-offensive-to-say-all-lives-matter-153188
ohhh rocky, i understand it completely. perhaps it is the arrogance of some who believe they are the arbiter of the meaning of words. perhaps it was the people who coined the term "black lives matter" knowing this (all lives matter) was going to be an immediate counterpoint. so they had to proactively redefine it and then stamp it with the racism label to protect their fallacy. all lives matter does include black people. i know you and sully sent me your versions of why "all lives matter" is naughty and there are volumes of everyone's opinions on the same. the reason i push back a little is because i believe BLM as an organization is a fraud which ripped off the very people they purport to support.
after reading a little bit of the stuff you guys sent me, i will remove my ALM sticker before the end of the day out of respect for those of you who so passionately follow the leads of the vocal minority. for me personally, i still follow the words of a man who was more respected than any of the so called african american leaders of today. MLK had no agenda other than to truly unite people. he truly wanted a colorblind society of people judged by their character and their actions. BLM has surely not lived up to anything near that
i realize this is way off topic, but you can thank your friend smith for making one of his many wise *** remarks and unprovoked shots revealing once again, his lack of self control. i do not ignore anyone
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Anyway.
Predictions on the end of the market pullback vs the end of the recession?
Market pullback: December is the beginning of the upswing
Recession: September is when the economy turns around
I guessed that covid would only last a year, so I was wrong on that one just like I'll be wrong on this one.
"Riots are the voices of the unheard" - MLK
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More, from the NYT's "DealBook," on how much $$$ Kanye is giving away by hating on Jews:
Adidas’s move yesterday to immediately cut ties with Kanye West, now known as Ye, was a key moment in businesses wrangling with too-hot-to-handle provocateurs. New estimates show how much the rapper and designer’s recent behavior, including antisemitic remarks and publicly wearing a shirt with a slogan tied to white supremacy, will cost him financially.
Here are three calculations of how much Ye stands to lose:
The Morningstar analyst David Swartz estimated that the Adidas-Yeezy partnership likely paid Ye in excess of $100 million a year. Overall, Swartz put the collaboration’s value at up to $2 billion.
Forbes reckoned that Adidas-Yeezy accounted for $1.5 billion of Ye’s net worth, and that its demise knocked his wealth down to $400 million.
Bloomberg reported that Adidas-Yeezy earned Ye over $500 million in royalty payments and marketing fees during the first four full years of the deal, through 2020.
Adidas is now indicating that it will sell existing Yeezy merchandise — only without the Yeezy branding. (The German sportswear giant said yesterday that it was the “sole owner” of all design rights to existing products that came out of the partnership.)
More shoes have dropped for Ye. Gap, whose partnership with him ended last month, said it was taking “immediate steps” to remove Yeezy Gap products from its stores and had shut down an affiliated website.
And two pro athletes — Aaron Donald of the Los Angeles Rams and Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics — tweeted that they were cutting ties with Donda Sports, Ye’s marketing agency.
But frankly, I'm glad he has the freedom to spew his hate and the willingness to do it so publicly. I want to know who the anti-Semites and racists and homophobes are.
The best twist in this saga, and I saw "best" in jest, Kanye showed up unannounced at Skechers HQ and wanted to work with them as another shoe option...except he totally failed to investigate and/or realize that the family that started and still runs Skechers is named...Greenberg. WHOOPS (Robert Greenberg also started LA Gear, shout out Robb Logterman!)
This whole thing has been a bummer cause I have a pair of Yeezys Boosts I really like as a workout and travel shoe, but I owe it to my Jewish wife, in-laws, and half Jewish son to not support blatant Anti-Semitism.
Its also a bummer as it truly is sad. Kanye at his best is out there and bombastic, but this is clearly someone mentally ill/unstable who needs help. I don't think its any coincidence this happened after a long association with a Kardashian clan who leaves a trail of broken people in their wake.
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the reason i push back a little is because i believe BLM as an organization is a fraud which ripped off the very people they purport to support.
That's you're reason? I mean, (almost) nobody saying "Black Lives Matter" means "hey, yo, the Black Lives Matter Organization is really cool!", instead they're trying to convey that systemic racism still exists, and black people are disproportionally affected socially, legally, and economically. Anyhow, I appreciate that you've read some more, and are making changes.
Predictions on the end of the market pullback vs the end of the recession?
Market pullback: December is the beginning of the upswing
Recession: September is when the economy turns around
I think the end of the market pullback is essentially already here. We dipped a little below the July June lows (but not much), appear to be rebounding. Perhaps, most important, Jobs & Consumers seem stable, energy prices are getting lower (globally), and there's a chance Putin won't launch nukes.
But that's the wildcard...not just Putin but the global economic environment. And honestly, the past month I haven't been paying attention globally other than to know England is being run by a bunch of idiots. Hopefully they get their sh*t straight.
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I’m not convinced the pullback is over, rocky. It’s the third week of earnings season and there have been a few nasty ones. Meta (Facebook) today after the bell … ugh!
But who knows … you could be right. If we’re in a recession (and many economists say we are), it’s been the weirdest recession ever.
Anyhoo, whether we’ve hit a market bottom or not, it doesn’t really change much for long-term investors.
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And... The Atlanta Fed is forecasting a GDP pop in Q4
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
"Yeah but how accurate has the GDP Now forecast been?"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UZmF
I realize I'm wrong a lot, but I'm rarely wrong this quickly. Here's to hoping!
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I think the end of the market pullback is essentially already here. We dipped a little below the July June lows (but not much), appear to be rebounding. Perhaps, most important, Jobs & Consumers seem stable, energy prices are getting lower (globally), and there's a chance Putin won't launch nukes.
But that's the wildcard...not just Putin but the global economic environment. And honestly, the past month I haven't been paying attention globally other than to know England is being run by a bunch of idiots. Hopefully they get their sh*t straight.
My Financial Adviser echoed the same thing the end of August. September & October are always historically the bottom of the stock market and it begins a slow climb out and up in November (typically right after election day).
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Huge earnings day today for investors, and some interesting news on the overall economy ...
In addition to the fallout from yesterday's after-hours reports (META is down freakin' 23%!), those reporting today include MO, HON, CAT, MCD, MA, MRK, CMCSA, TROW and NOC before the bell, and AAPL, AMZN, GILD, INTC, LHX and TMUS after the close.
So far ...
MRK had a nice beat and looks ready to hit $100 for the first time ever. CAT with an impressive quarter is up big pre-market. MO with a double miss and tightened guidance is down 2%. CMCSA had a double beat and is up 6%. MCD impressed as usual and is up 2%. HON is up 5% after a great beat and raise. MA's growth wasn't quite as robust as V announced on Tue and MA is down 2%. NOC is down 5% after earnings miss. TROW saw AUM drop pretty significantly but isn't getting punished too badly pre-market.
Meanwhile, GDP grew 2.6%, better than expected and a signal that, if we were in a recession, we perhaps no longer are. And PCE price index fell to 4.2%, which some economists consider good news.
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Strangest "recession" ever, with all the conflicting data points.
I have/had a buy list waiting, but so far the market bounced back up before I pulled the trigger except for one.
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I have/had a buy list waiting, but so far the market bounced back up before I pulled the trigger except for one.
Be patient - you’ll probably get another chance.
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Be patient - you’ll probably get another chance.
Like with AMZN right now, holy heck
Edit: Looks like they came back up a bit. They were down ~18% right after earnings
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Like with AMZN right now, holy heck
Edit: Looks like they came back up a bit. They were down ~18% right after earnings
They could be down 50% for the year by tomorrow. Should I buy a chunk before the end of the year? :)
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Took a small position in Twitter this afternoon. Removing Jack Dorsey is a potential upside catalyst IMO.
Well, I made 30% on this one, 45% annualized...just not at all how I pictured it happening. Thanks, Elon, for your maniacal ego and hubris. And your cash, of course.
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They could be down 50% for the year by tomorrow. Should I buy a chunk before the end of the year? :)
I hold plenty of amazon for my tastes just through index funds. If you want to be overweight amazon though? Yep.
Nothing has fundamentally changed with their business model, so if your time horizon is long picking up "cheap" AMZN is a good idea.
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I hold plenty of amazon for my tastes just through index funds. If you want to be overweight amazon though? Yep.
Nothing has fundamentally changed with their business model, so if your time horizon is long picking up "cheap" AMZN is a good idea.
Ty Skata.
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I hold plenty of amazon for my tastes just through index funds. If you want to be overweight amazon though? Yep.
Nothing has fundamentally changed with their business model, so if your time horizon is long picking up "cheap" AMZN is a good idea.
Well, they do have a PE ratio of 99, so not sure it counts as cheap.
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Well, they do have a PE ratio of 99, so not sure it counts as cheap.
Amazon regularly has negative net profit quarters because it's investing so heavily in growth. PE ratio isn't the best measure for companies that are aggressively growing and are intentionally keeping their EPS near 0.
If Amazon is cheap or not right now? Idk. Their PS ratio is nearing 2, which is lowest since 2016.
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Dumped all my savings into DWAC last February. Looking for big things
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Dumped all my savings into DWAC last February. Looking for big things
Many people are saying it will be an investment like no has ever seen. Tremendous opportunity, believe me. Your portfolio will have so much winning. You'll be saying 'please, please, it's too much winning. We can't take it anymore'. Just the other day a VC guy came up to me, a big tough guy, with tears in his eyes, and said, 'Sir, this is the greatest investment ever. Thank you'.
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Apple being Apple
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Beat. Raise. Repeat.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cvs-health-stock-jumps-5-premarket-after-earnings-beat-opioid-settlement-2022-11-02?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
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Beat. Raise. Repeat.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cvs-health-stock-jumps-5-premarket-after-earnings-beat-opioid-settlement-2022-11-02?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Got an opportunity to add a little to CVS a few weeks back on the combination of Aetna experiencing some problems and an alleged potential deal for Cano Health. Mr. Market hated both those things and price fell from 100 to 88 over the course of a couple sessions.
But CVS has remade itself into such a solid health-care conglomerate, as today's earnings report and guidance demonstrated again.
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AAPL pausing hiring through 2023
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Will be interesting to see how market reacts to Fed rate and then to Powell's comments.
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Will be interesting to see how market reacts to Fed rate and then to Powell's comments.
Rate should already be priced in. Comments will affect future "pricing". I expect the comments will essentially say that they think they're on the right path, and seeing signs their actions being effective, but will require more data and careful examination in their next meeting. :P
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Rate should already be priced in. Comments will affect future "pricing". I expect the comments will essentially say that they think they're on the right path, and seeing signs their actions being effective, but will require more data and careful examination in their next meeting. :P
If it's .75, yes it's priced in.
Powell has had a knack for saying things that Mr. Market hasn't always loved. We'll see shortly!
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My online savings account has gone from 0.7% to 2.5% in less than a year
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My online savings account has gone from 0.7% to 2.5% in less than a year
Instead of losing 2-3% due to inflation, now you have the opportunity to lose 5-6%.
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Market went up about 1% initially after the rate increase announcement. But Powell saying twice in his press conference that there's more work to be done regarding future hikes apparently spooked Mr. Market some. It's now down about 1%. It had been down about .3% before the rate announcement.
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I suppose this was a very predictable market reaction.
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The stock market is a demonstration of the emotional state of the rich
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The stock market is a demonstration of the emotional state of the rich
YouTube video source?
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The stock market is a demonstration of the emotional state of the rich
What are the polls that show 61% of democrats, 74% of independents and 91% of republicans think we are presently in a recession a demonstration of?
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YouTube video source?
🤡🤡
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What are the polls that show 61% of democrats, 74% of independents and 91% of republicans think we are presently in a recession a demonstration of?
Idiocy, for one.
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If I was the type who tried to time the market, I would be gearing up to grab every share I can get my hands on.
2.6% growth in the 3rd quarter. There have been times that has been treated as a huge victory. Not today. Doesn't fit the current zeitgeist or narrative. Just another ignored fact.
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What are the polls that show 61% of democrats, 74% of independents and 91% of republicans think we are presently in a recession a demonstration of?
Around 63% of Americans surveyed could not identify the correct definition of a recession. Lol.
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Around 63% of Americans surveyed could not identify the correct definition of a recession. Lol.
97% of Americans would fail a basic civics test
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97% of Americans would fail a basic civics test
Not true, though American children are much worse at reading, writing and adding and subtracting at appropriate grade levels than they were two years ago.
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Not true, though American children are much worse at reading, writing and adding and subtracting at appropriate grade levels than they were two years ago.
Such an angry old man.
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Not true, though American children are much worse at reading, writing and adding and subtracting at appropriate grade levels than they were two years ago.
I know. America’s response to the pandemic was a disaster. Sadly, the pandemic readiness plan that was put in place by W was scrapped and we groped around blindly. Hopefully, we learned our lesson.
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Such an angry old man.
Actually very happy, though I’m am sad for what our schoolchildren lost. You’re not? Cruel.
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Actually very happy, though I’m am sad for what our schoolchildren lost. You’re not? Cruel.
This is super lazy trolling
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If I was the type who tried to time the market, I would be gearing up to grab every share I can get my hands on.
2.6% growth in the 3rd quarter. There have been times that has been treated as a huge victory. Not today. Doesn't fit the current zeitgeist or narrative. Just another ignored fact.
Its never wise to look at economic numbers, such as GDP growth, in a vacuum. The growth and associated numbers is still wildly volatile. The number was largely driven by international trade, which cause swing all over the place quarter to quarter. Lot of private sector demand dried up and there are plenty of other slowing growth metrics. Headlines are great for intraday market spikes, but not substantive sea changes.
I'm not saying we are in a recession or sounding the dark times ahead alarm, but pointing to a GDP number in the absolute and then claiming "narrative" or something, when its not applauded roundly, is misguided. Consumer spending numbers were good, but housing looked bleak and plenty of other underlying metrics don't look rosy.
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I agree jwags. However, you have to admit that in times past, a quarter million new jobs per month and a 2.6% growth quarter would be greeted with hosannas.
Yup, there is still Putin's war.
And chip shortages.
And supply chain issues.
And China's economy.
And OPEC (see Putin's war)
And the labor shortage causing upward pressure on salaries and therefore prices.
And the 7.7% average wage jump in the third quarter.
Holy Crap. I forgot to mention the ongoing COVID struggles. Wow.
The markets hate uncertainty and volatility.
Which is why, I repeat, if I was one who timed the market, I would be gearing up to buy whatever I could get my hands on.
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I agree jwags. However, you have to admit that in times past, a quarter million new jobs per month and a 2.6% growth quarter would be greeted with hosannas.
Yup, there is still Putin's war.
And chip shortages.
And supply chain issues.
And China's economy.
And OPEC (see Putin's war)
And the labor shortage causing upward pressure on salaries and therefore prices.
And the 7.7% average wage jump in the third quarter.
Holy Crap. I forgot to mention the ongoing COVID struggles. Wow.
The markets hate uncertainty and volatility.
Which is why, I repeat, if I was one who timed the market, I would be gearing up to buy whatever I could get my hands on.
See I actually still disagree with you. If I'm reading you right, you're still saying "things are good and looking up because we had good GDP growth even with this list of challenges". And I fundamentally disagree cause as I mentioned, you can have a lot of underlying economic factors, indicators, and trend signals that look really problematic and concerning even with a 2.6% quarterly growth.
And I also disagree that it would normally "always" be met with hosannas. Cause as I mentioned, the international trade component. I can absolutely recall GDP numbers in a quarter that swung from a negative to a positive 2-3% that weren't celebrated cause it didn't tell the whole story. And some of those times had negative quarters right after. Again, I'm not calling for SPX 1500 or something. But I also don't think we've seen a low put in for the market over the next 6-12 months.
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There's been a "good news is bad news" thing going on.
For example, the government reported this week that companies posted more job openings in September than in August. There are now 1.9 available jobs for each unemployed worker, an unusually large supply. Anybody who wants a job can get a job -- it might not be a job in their chosen profession, but they can be employed if they want to be employed, and most of the open jobs pay considerably more than similar jobs did both last year and before the pandemic.
However, the strong job market generally is seen to contributing to inflation, making it hard for the Fed to stop raising rates. So even as anybody who wants a job can have a job, and wages are higher, those wages are not high enough to keep up with inflation and higher borrowing costs.
If we are in recession, as some economists believe we are, the employment situation makes it one of the strangest recessions ever. If we aren't yet in recession but one is coming in 2023, as many economists think, it's a bizarre lead-up.
The market can only "price in" so much of this kind of thing. You get a fourth straight .75% hike to the Fed rates, coupled with statements like, "We still have some ways to go," and the market reacts as it did yesterday afternoon despite "good" employment information and generally good corporate earnings reports.
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Actually very happy, though I’m am sad for what our schoolchildren lost. You’re not? Cruel.
Your recent post history shows otherwise.
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This is super lazy trolling thinking
FIFY
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Not true, though American children are much worse at reading, writing and adding and subtracting at appropriate grade levels than they were two years ago.
So the time period in which parents were directly responsible for the reading, writing, adding and subtracting education their child received was a failure?
I'm shocked.
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There's been a "good news is bad news" thing going on.
For example, the government reported this week that companies posted more job openings in September than in August. There are now 1.9 available jobs for each unemployed worker, an unusually large supply. Anybody who wants a job can get a job -- it might not be a job in their chosen profession, but they can be employed if they want to be employed, and most of the open jobs pay considerably more than similar jobs did both last year and before the pandemic.
However, the strong job market generally is seen to contributing to inflation, making it hard for the Fed to stop raising rates. So even as anybody who wants a job can have a job, and wages are higher, those wages are not high enough to keep up with inflation and higher borrowing costs.
If we are in recession, as some economists believe we are, the employment situation makes it one of the strangest recessions ever. If we aren't yet in recession but one is coming in 2023, as many economists think, it's a bizarre lead-up.
The market can only "price in" so much of this kind of thing. You get a fourth straight .75% hike to the Fed rates, coupled with statements like, "We still have some ways to go," and the market reacts as it did yesterday afternoon despite "good" employment information and generally good corporate earnings reports.
I can't help but look at it and see:
"The economy has become too good, so the people that are poor, aren't poor enough anymore. We need to fix the economy to make sure they are plenty poor again".
The cause of inflation was largely the FED pumping money into the economy to benefit the upper classes, for years and years. The moment some economic relief was pumped into the middle and lower classes, in conjunction with a global supply chain issue, they determined they needed to slam the breaks on the economy, by raising interest rates, which disproportionately impacts the middle and lower classes.
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I can't help but look at it and see:
"The economy has become too good, so the people that are poor, aren't poor enough anymore. We need to fix the economy to make sure they are plenty poor again".
The cause of inflation was largely the FED pumping money into the economy to benefit the upper classes, for years and years. The moment some economic relief was pumped into the middle and lower classes, in conjunction with a global supply chain issue, they determined they needed to slam the breaks on the economy, by raising interest rates, which disproportionately impacts the middle and lower classes.
Forgetful...You're a smart guy, but are you f'ing serious? You really think everything is superb, domestically and globally, across all economic categories and this is just some conspiracy to crush the poor? Come the hell on. I'm not excusing a hapless Fed, but there is some GNARLY structural issues with the economy. Its not some money grubbing nonsense. But sure, lets get to 8-10% inflation that won't harm the lower classes at all!
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I'm not excusing a hapless Fed, but there is some GNARLY structural issues with the economy. Its not some money grubbing nonsense. But sure, lets get to 8-10% inflation that won't harm the lower classes at all!
I don't disagree that its significantly more complicated than forgetful described. However, I also agree with him that its a poor reflection on our economic status quo that when labor gets the upper hand on capital for just a couple of years, inflation shoots through the roof.
IMO, it's because we are a frog in a pot of boiling water with respect to how heavily skewed our economic and tax policy is toward capital when not in crisis. Our economy is so skewed toward freeing up capital for investment that any increase on labor's balance sheet causes inflation to take off. Thats a rigged game.
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Wags
I saw last week that middle class America had a once in lifetime increase in wealth over the past two years. I think lower and middle class America (my family) was given a golden ticket by the Fed. Wealthy, and especially very wealthy people always have an advantage and that is life. I believe the Fed and Treasury worked very hard to help the lower and middle class since the start of the pandemic. Crazy stock market and housing helped many Americans feel a lot wealthier than they did pre-pandemic. I still believe the wealth effect is a major reason for the inflation we are experiencing today.
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I don't disagree that its significantly more complicated than forgetful described. However, I also agree with him that its a poor reflection on our economic status quo that when labor gets the upper hand on capital for just a couple of years, inflation shoots through the roof.
IMO, it's because we are a frog in a pot of boiling water with respect to how heavily skewed our economic and tax policy is toward capital when not in crisis. Our economy is so skewed toward freeing up capital for investment that any increase on labor's balance sheet causes inflation to take off. Thats a rigged game.
I find that line of thinking to be pretty reasonable. I'm far from someone who will excuse away poor policy and Fed strategy over the years. I think governments (the US as much as anyone) are incredibly slow to react and adjust, so setting up the country for capital investment and growth in a way that was great 50 years ago but not so much today, takes far too long to correct.
I just can't rationalize some mentality of addressing current rampant inflation (or many other burgeoning economic issues which too many people aren't aware of or ignore as stated in previous posts) is some plot to further cut the legs out from the workers. Thats just some armchair socialist conspiracy theory wet dream.
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Well if that's the case, we are going to be in for some troubles in the next decade or so, because they number of people exiting the workforce via retirment is going to WAY exceed the number of people entering. Just looking at a simple demographic chart will show that.
It would be great for our economy if we had a better immigration policy right now.
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Well if that's the case, we are going to be in for some troubles in the next decade or so, because they number of people exiting the workforce via retirment is going to WAY exceed the number of people entering. Just looking at a simple demographic chart will show that.
It would be great for our economy if we had a better immigration policy right now.
Right, there is already a worker drought in many, many positions. The "they're coming to take our jobs!#$!" fear and loathing approach is such bullcrap
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I find that line of thinking to be pretty reasonable. I'm far from someone who will excuse away poor policy and Fed strategy over the years. I think governments (the US as much as anyone) are incredibly slow to react and adjust, so setting up the country for capital investment and growth in a way that was great 50 years ago but not so much today, takes far too long to correct.
I just can't rationalize some mentality of addressing current rampant inflation (or many other burgeoning economic issues which too many people aren't aware of or ignore as stated in previous posts) is some plot to further cut the legs out from the workers. Thats just some armchair socialist conspiracy theory wet dream.
I'm right there with you. And its tough, because we somehow both need to know what the tax laws/rates will be 5 or 10 years from now, yet also need to be able to use tax policy as an economic tool. Like, it is pretty objectively not good and not fair to the working/middle class to have a 20% cap gains rate at the same time we have 9% inflation. But at the same time, we can't be constantly changing the cap gains rate or other investment-inducing tax policies every time inflation creeps up. That isn't good and predictable tax policy, and it takes too long to turn the ship anyway. At the end of the day, to course correct in a meaningful way would probably require us to choose to wear a little economic pain when things are stable - which is politically untenable so I'm just shaking my hand at a cloud.
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Gas price is up 70 cents at my neighborhood gas station since Sunday. I'm good with it and then some, hey?
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So the time period in which parents were directly responsible for the reading, writing, adding and subtracting education their child received was a failure?
I'm shocked.
LOL I thought the government/teacher’s unions sold us on virtual learning. Who knew the abdicated and went all in on home schooling?
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Gas price is up 70 cents at my neighborhood gas station since Sunday. I'm good with it and then some, hey?
What is your local congressperson doing to help alleviate that?
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I agree we are going to have to loosen up immigration in order to replace the workers retiring over the next decade.
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Forgetful...You're a smart guy, but are you f'ing serious? You really think everything is superb, domestically and globally, across all economic categories and this is just some conspiracy to crush the poor? Come the hell on. I'm not excusing a hapless Fed, but there is some GNARLY structural issues with the economy. Its not some money grubbing nonsense. But sure, lets get to 8-10% inflation that won't harm the lower classes at all!
I totally see how you thought my post was saying the bolded, and the lack of clarity is 100% on me, but I was not suggesting that there was any sort of conspiracy to crush the poor, or that everything is superb domestically or globally. Yes there are some barometers that suggest the economy is running hot, but the underlying data says a major global recession...the question is how deep it will be.
My wording sucked. I agree 100% on the gnarly structural issues with the economy. I also fault almost 15 years of reckless Fed policies contributing to the mess. It really was a perfect storm of issues that got us to where we are.
My quoted statement, was more of a reflection of who is harmed in all of this (not relating to some kind of conspiracy).
What is being done right now to fix the mess harms the poor/middle class the most, they are the ones that get doubly crushed by inflation and interest rates, and in many regards they were the ones who least benefitted from much of the reckless Fed policy over the years. My statement was more a reflection of concern/compassion for these classes as they are going to go through some serious pain in the next several years (in my opinion).
Mea culpa.
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Wags
I saw last week that middle class America had a once in lifetime increase in wealth over the past two years. I think lower and middle class America (my family) was given a golden ticket by the Fed. Wealthy, and especially very wealthy people always have an advantage and that is life. I believe the Fed and Treasury worked very hard to help the lower and middle class since the start of the pandemic. Crazy stock market and housing helped many Americans feel a lot wealthier than they did pre-pandemic. I still believe the wealth effect is a major reason for the inflation we are experiencing today.
Does the stock market and housing really benefit lower/middle class?
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Does the stock market and housing really benefit lower/middle class?
Middle class? Sure...if you include 401(k)s.
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Lazer
Middle class America saw an almost $200k increase in their net worth during the pandemic. I am sure what the classification for middle class is, but many Americans' saw a nice boost to their nest egg during the pandemic.
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Does the stock market and housing really benefit lower/middle class?
The fact there is a question whether the stock market and housing benefit middle class people pretty much indicates there is a problem, no?
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I totally see how you thought my post was saying the bolded, and the lack of clarity is 100% on me, but I was not suggesting that there was any sort of conspiracy to crush the poor, or that everything is superb domestically or globally. Yes there are some barometers that suggest the economy is running hot, but the underlying data says a major global recession...the question is how deep it will be.
My wording sucked. I agree 100% on the gnarly structural issues with the economy. I also fault almost 15 years of reckless Fed policies contributing to the mess. It really was a perfect storm of issues that got us to where we are.
My quoted statement, was more of a reflection of who is harmed in all of this (not relating to some kind of conspiracy).
What is being done right now to fix the mess harms the poor/middle class the most, they are the ones that get doubly crushed by inflation and interest rates, and in many regards they were the ones who least benefitted from much of the reckless Fed policy over the years. My statement was more a reflection of concern/compassion for these classes as they are going to go through some serious pain in the next several years (in my opinion).
Mea culpa.
Appreciate the clarification. We're much closer to the same page. I sort of echo Goose's post above. Some situations are naturally going to benefit the wealthy more. And often with recessions, sometimes the levers you pull will hurt some, but the alternative is a far more enduring issue that hurts everyone. Recession fixes or prevention that also strengthen the poor is far above my pay grade.
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Lazer
Middle class America saw an almost $200k increase in their net worth during the pandemic. I am sure what the classification for middle class is, but many Americans' saw a nice boost to their nest egg during the pandemic.
Can you share where you found this $200k figure? I think the definition of middle class is important…I remember seeing some surprisingly low numbers for middle class retirement savings and net worth
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Lazer
I will try and find the link, but it was a Bloomberg article and the headline said something like once in lifetime wealth accumulation coming to end for middle class America.
There is no doubt that many middle class people are woefully behind in retirement savings. Mind you, the article started the uptick from the 2020 low in the market until sometime mid summer 2022. I have said many times on here, you could not have lost money in stock or housing market if you tried for the two year time period.
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Can you share where you found this $200k figure? I think the definition of middle class is important…I remember seeing some surprisingly low numbers for middle class retirement savings and net worth
I was confused by that also. Most definitions I see, say the average net worth for the middle class is between ~$44k-$200k, so unless they were also substantially in the red, they weren't getting $200k increases.
I think this is an example of people and publications grossly misunderstanding who is middle class.
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According to this, the median net worth of those in the top 20% is only a shade over $600,000.
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/american-middle-class-net-worth-3973493
I think this is an example of people and publications grossly misunderstanding who is middle class.
This. Exactly. I think many people are way further up the ladder than they realize.
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According to this, the median net worth of those in the top 20% is only a shade over $600,000.
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/american-middle-class-net-worth-3973493
This. Exactly. I think many people are way further up the ladder than they realize.
And way further down as well.
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Aided significantly by the fact that most financially-focused publications (thinking Bloomberg, Forbes, CNBC, Fox Business, etc.) all get their bread buttered by advertising targeted at upper class folks who consider themselves closer to the middle than upper class.
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If the average net worth is accurate in the article shared, we are in big time trouble as an economy and a country. I have very hard time believing those numbers, but that is my opinion. If they are accurate, we will not have housing shortage for long.
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There will be a housing shortage as long as the number of houses built fails to keep up with population growth.
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Tower
There will be no housing shortage if people cannot afford to buy one. Sadly, I believe that the housing market is looking at a very serious situation. I am on several email lists for condo/house for sale in SW FL and the mid range is reducing pricing weekly. I have seen one condo in Sarasota drop the price three straight weeks. They are not a pre pandemic pricing but down 15-20% at the moment.
There will be price range/markets that hold up better than others, but I think there is going to be bargains to be had in next 12-18 months. The cost of homes has been artificially propped up by free money and those days are gone.
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Goose, upper class and boomers owning multiple homes is a contributing factor (not the only one or even biggest) to the housing shortage. So, the situation you describe in Sarasota (vacationed on Lido Key multiple times, noticed empty high rises all of them) can also be seen as an opportunity, not just a crisis.
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tower
There has been great opportunities with free money from the banks. I believe you will see boomers that have two places decide to downsize to one and pocket the money. I think everyone forgets that we have lived in fantasyland since the Great Recession. This has not been a normal economic time in our history and think people have blinders on. I have said it many times, I am extremely thankful that my kids have not overpaid for a house in the past 30 months.
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Yes, we are now facing challenges that we haven't faced in a generation. Ways have always been found and they will be found now. After the requisite hand wringing and kvetching.
If the boomers sell off their second homes and pocket the money, the housing crunch eases and their kids end up with a few extra shekels in a decade when the boomers pass away.
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Tower
There will be no housing shortage if people cannot afford to buy one. Sadly, I believe that the housing market is looking at a very serious situation. I am on several email lists for condo/house for sale in SW FL and the mid range is reducing pricing weekly. I have seen one condo in Sarasota drop the price three straight weeks. They are not a pre pandemic pricing but down 15-20% at the moment.
There will be price range/markets that hold up better than others, but I think there is going to be bargains to be had in next 12-18 months. The cost of homes has been artificially propped up by free money and those days are gone.
You live in a prominent retirement area. It will be prone to major swings. If inflation is up, and retirees and their portfolios are down the first thing to go will be the home that they overpaid for.
SW FL is probably one of the most volatile housing areas in the entire US. Your area is certainly an outlier.
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tower
Zero hand wringing being done by me. I simply saying that the last 15 years created issues that I believe many will struggle to navigate the changes. I think your simplifying what the other side of a decade plus of fantasyland may look like may be a poor judgement call. That is just my opinion, but the world is chaotic at the moment and the economy is only part of the problem.
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The world is chaotic right now. Agreed. And there are a couple of madmen who could just say f it and end it. And a worldwide plague only partially contained. You are engaging in sepia toned nostalgia and forgetting that the world has survived a near infinite amount of challenges. And you are engaging in boomer thinking that, if we survive this generation's group of evil dictators and pandemics, that ways won't be found to forge forward.
There are nearly always challenges. Meet them.
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tower
Appreciate the advice on meeting the challenge. I 100% believe all challenges will be met and the world forge ahead in the future. Simply, I do not think the same toolbox is going to be used to meet the current challenges and saying "we have seen bigger challenges before and beat them" is going to be the way out this time.
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Tower
There will be no housing shortage if people cannot afford to buy one. Sadly, I believe that the housing market is looking at a very serious situation. I am on several email lists for condo/house for sale in SW FL and the mid range is reducing pricing weekly. I have seen one condo in Sarasota drop the price three straight weeks. They are not a pre pandemic pricing but down 15-20% at the moment.
There will be price range/markets that hold up better than others, but I think there is going to be bargains to be had in next 12-18 months. The cost of homes has been artificially propped up by free money and those days are gone.
You seem surprised at the data-- the unaffordability of housing for the lower and middle classes isn't new. And a 20% drop leaves them still up roughly 30% from a few years ago.
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TSmith
What I am surprised about is the average net worth noted in that article when over 40% of Americans have a 401K and over 60% own a home. Not exactly sure how so many people have bought a home, if the numbers are correct.
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tower
Appreciate the advice on meeting the challenge. I 100% believe all challenges will be met and the world forge ahead in the future. Simply, I do not think the same toolbox is going to be used to meet the current challenges and saying "we have seen bigger challenges before and beat them" is going to be the way out this time.
Did your generation use the same toolbox as your parent's generation?
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tower
Not that I give a shxt, but why does everything always come down to what generation one falls into? Also, just curious, how many years constitutes a generation to you?
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TSmith
What I am surprised about is the average net worth noted in that article when over 40% of Americans have a 401K and over 60% own a home. Not exactly sure how so many people have bought a home, if the numbers are correct.
I don't know about you, but 40% strikes me as pretty paltry. Further, simply looking at the percentage participation masks the picture.
Millennials should be at the age where they are buying their first houses, but:
Retirement Accounts
According to the census, just under half have some sort of retirement account
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/08/who-has-retirement-accounts.html#:~:text=Demographics%20of%20Ownership&text=Generation%20or%20Gen%20X%20members,23%20owned%20a%20retirement%20account.
Balances
But according to Vanguard, the median balances are in the $36K range
https://www.personalcapital.com/blog/retirement-planning/average-401k-balance-age/
So the median for all people in this age range are all of ~ $18K
And, when you probably bought your first home, median house prices were around 4.5x median incomes, now they are 7.5x median incomes.
(https://images2.imgbox.com/9f/25/LV7fCVzz_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/LV7fCVzz)
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Goose, upper class and boomers owning multiple homes is a contributing factor (not the only one or even biggest) to the housing shortage. So, the situation you describe in Sarasota (vacationed on Lido Key multiple times, noticed empty high rises all of them) can also be seen as an opportunity, not just a crisis.
Also a huge contributor: corporations buying up houses and then renting them.
Creates a shortage of houses. Drives up house prices. Also drives up rent prices.
It's an enormous weight on middle-class and lower-class people in Charlotte, I know, and in many other major metro areas. Some HOAs have enacted rules to prohibit it, but they were way too late doing so.
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Gas price is up 70 cents at my neighborhood gas station since Sunday. I'm good with it and then some, hey?
Location Location Location
Only 3.57 on the south side
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Also a huge contributor: corporations buying up houses and then renting them.
Creates a shortage of houses. Drives up house prices. Also drives up rent prices.
It's an enormous weight on middle-class and lower-class people in Charlotte, I know, and in many other major metro areas. Some HOAs have enacted rules to prohibit it, but they were way too late doing so.
And they will continue to do so as they have access to far cheaper capital than the average person.
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META announces 11K layoffs. As often happens, Mr. Market rejoices. Shares up 5% premarket.
Meanwhile ... crypto, which already has had a rough year, got routed overnight. BTC at about $17,500, near 2-year low. ETH also near 2-year low.
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META announces 11K layoffs. As often happens, Mr. Market rejoices. Shares up 5% premarket.
Meanwhile ... crypto, which already has had a rough year, got routed overnight. BTC at about $17,500, near 2-year low. ETH also near 2-year low.
Crypto held on strong against inflation for a while, but no one wanted to bring that up. 8-)
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Crypto held on strong against inflation for a while, but no one wanted to bring that up. 8-)
I assume you include yourself in "no one"?
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Crypto held on strong against inflation for a while, but no one wanted to bring that up. 8-)
Down 74% over the past year. I have opinions...
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I assume you include yourself in "no one"?
Correct, I didn't bring it up, just responded since someone brought up crypto.
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Down 74% over the past year. I have opinions...
vs the dollar, yep that's true. Still up over where it was in 2020. Let's see about later today.
Amazon has lost over 1 trillion in market cap. Meta down real bad. Tesla has cut in half since this time last year. All tech is down, and BTC is volatile. Probably a much larger story.
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I admit I don't follow crypto except the headlines. I haven't invested in it, and I don't see me ever investing in it. And I'd say that if it were up 70%. I'm generally more of a boring, more defensive, long-term, dividend-growing kind of investor.
The one thing that's become abundantly clear is that crypto is not a hedge against down markets or inflation.
I wish nothing but good fortune to those who have made it part of their portfolio.
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And speaking of inflation ...
It came in at a better-than-expected 7.7% annual rate for October.
S&P 500 Futures, which had been flat, soared 3% in the minutes following the announcement.
Obviously, it's still some steep inflation. But it will be interesting to see if this convinces the Fed to go with a smaller raise (say .25%) or even stand pat at its December meeting.
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I admit I don't follow crypto except the headlines. I haven't invested in it, and I don't see me ever investing in it. And I'd say that if it were up 70%. I'm generally more of a boring, more defensive, long-term, dividend-growing kind of investor.
The one thing that's become abundantly clear is that crypto is not a hedge against down markets or inflation.
I wish nothing but good fortune to those who have made it part of their portfolio.
Depends on where you live. BTC is very advantageous to Turks since they're experiencing hyperinflation. As are many other countries.
In the US, it is being commercially invested in, and since it is considered highly liquid and volatile, it is one of the first to get removed from balance sheets.
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I'm not a huge crypto guy - I got burned a bit getting into COIN early but not enough to keep me up at night. I don't even directly own any crypto, as much out of environmental objection as anything. But at these prices, I'm tempted to steer into the skid a bit. You don't have to think that every portfolio will own crypto in 2030 to make these prices attractive - you just have to think its not pets.com.
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Its remarkable someone hasn't taken away Sam Bankman-Fried's Twitter yet, or told him to STFU. He's just making himself look worse and worse, and more potentially criminally negligent or liable.
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Its remarkable someone hasn't taken away Sam Bankman-Fried's Twitter yet, or told him to STFU. He's just making himself look worse and worse, and more potentially criminally negligent or liable.
It's actually pretty fun to see someone collapse in real time.
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It's actually pretty fun to see someone collapse in real time.
Going from a valuation of $32B and having your name on the Miami Heat Arena, to bankrupt in less than a year is crazy, and highlights some of the over speculation out there.
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vs the dollar, yep that's true.
Not vs the $. Just down around 74% for the past year.
It's actually pretty fun to see someone collapse in real time.
Not really fun. That's the warning I would give to any crypto investor.
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This FTX story is insane.
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Not really.
Harry Truman: The only thing new in the world is the history you don't know.
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Not really.
Harry Truman: The only thing new in the world is the history you don't know.
Yeah, it's not even Enron level.
Trusting large amounts of money to a 20-something in a completely unregulated industry, a guy that lives in the Bahamas to avoid scrutiny? Bad risk management.
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Not vs the $. Just down around 74% for the past year.
That's not how this works.
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“It’s partly fraud and partly delusion. That’s a bad combination. I don’t like either fraud or delusion, and the delusion may be more extreme than the fraud.”
-- Charlie Munger, on crypto.
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“It’s partly fraud and partly delusion. That’s a bad combination. I don’t like either fraud or delusion, and the delusion may be more extreme than the fraud.”
-- Charlie Munger, on crypto.
He's 98, and made all of his money on central banking.
Eye don't see the point you're trying to make here.
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He's 98, and made all of his money on central banking.
Eye don't see the point you're trying to make here.
I'm sure Charlie was never involved in anything fraudulent
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From a link the NYT morning brief.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23462333/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-cryptocurrency-effective-altruism-crypto-bahamas-philanthropy?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20221117&instance_id=77783&nl=the-morning®i_id=98421546&segment_id=113408&te=1&user_id=65badcb7c07b4cd4815fe5e758510381
Again, this dude was seen as a leader in the crypto space. People put their trust and tens of billions of dollars in the hands of a guy that apparently couldn't read a balance sheet.
Unlike the Enron guys, I don't think he had bad intentions, but talk about being totally unprepared and over his head...
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He's 98, and made all of his money on central banking.
Eye don't see the point you're trying to make here.
A guy regarded as one of the most successful investors ever offered his opinion on crypto, and I shared it.
Those reading can get as much or as little as they want out of what Munger said.
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He's 98, and made all of his money on central banking.
Eye don't see the point you're trying to make here.
There are definitely some parallels between crypto and wildcat banks
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From a link the NYT morning brief.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23462333/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-cryptocurrency-effective-altruism-crypto-bahamas-philanthropy?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20221117&instance_id=77783&nl=the-morning®i_id=98421546&segment_id=113408&te=1&user_id=65badcb7c07b4cd4815fe5e758510381
Again, this dude was seen as a leader in the crypto space. People put their trust and tens of billions of dollars in the hands of a guy that apparently couldn't read a balance sheet.
Unlike the Enron guys, I don't think he had bad intentions, but talk about being totally unprepared and over his head...
I don’t buy that. They hid behind “effective altruism” while doing really shady stuff. They were also actively embezzling
https://twitter.com/Gold_Mansack/status/1593238242899402752?s=20&t=Z2-3ERAi-V-hQStmqAJckg
Not to mention SBF’s trading fund, Alameda, was using FTX customer deposits to trade…while actively using those FTX customers trading information to front run and trade against them.
They were way over their heads in how to run and manage a company/balance sheet with that much capital. But they were also being shady, duplicitous, and dirty from the start. Originally management of Alameda left a few years ago because they were uncomfortable with a lot of the activity…so SBF installed his GF as the new CEO
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That's not how this works.
Ok. What physical token of value would you like to compare it to? A house? A loaf of bread? Newspaper delivery? A loaf of bread in Spain? In the past year, it's dropped ~75% vs a loaf of a bread - everywhere.
edit: Lets agree on the big mac index - which some argue is a true measure of inflation.
https://inflationchart.com/bigmac-in-btc/?time=1%20year&logarithmic=1
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Ok. What physical token of value would you like to compare it to? A house? A loaf of bread? Newspaper delivery? A loaf of bread in Spain? In the past year, it's dropped ~75% vs a loaf of a bread - everywhere.
edit: Lets agree on the big mac index - which some argue is a true measure of inflation.
https://inflationchart.com/bigmac-in-btc/?time=1%20year&logarithmic=1
I prefer the Costco hot dog or Arizona tea index
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Ok. What physical token of value would you like to compare it to? A house? A loaf of bread? Newspaper delivery? A loaf of bread in Spain? In the past year, it's dropped ~75% vs a loaf of a bread - everywhere.
edit: Lets agree on the big mac index - which some argue is a true measure of inflation.
https://inflationchart.com/bigmac-in-btc/?time=1%20year&logarithmic=1
I'd compare it to a currency with long term store of value. Similar to what gold used to be. Also, the ~75% number you're listing is not accurate. It's like ~50% in Turkish Lira. So, it varies significantly from country to country. Much like GBP to USD has fallen ~25% this year. Now, no doubt that BTC is down world wide in price.
Media and banks and a lot of people love to pile on and say, "BTC is going to zero!", but when it goes up, they're quiet, or they're investing in it themselves.
At this point, it's clear that there are a lot of financial institutions that are invested. BTC is now heavily tied to the stock market. Meaning, when the market goes up, BTC goes up. When the market goes down, BTC goes down. And it is much more volatile as a result of being a "speculative" asset.
As time goes by and more financial institutions will add BTC to their portfolios and the volatility will decrease. I have no clue what this means for price, but I'm guessing up. I don't really follow any other crypto stuff but BTC, and ETH a little.
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Media and banks and a lot of people love to pile on and say, "BTC is going to zero!", but when it goes up, they're quiet, or they're investing in it themselves.
I guess I'm somewhere in the middle. But I definitely don't think BTC specifically is a good long term store of value. Crypto overall has a long term future in our society, and BTC, ETH and others "gained" value because they were seen as novel and secure (hah!). For a while I believed mining technology (GPUs) were a good investment because of the crypto craze (and they were) But at this point, crytpo "technology" is a dime a dozen, and it will only be widely accepted once a legitimate government issues one, and guarantees it's value the same as their physical currency.
But really, is that even needed when we have credit cards, and very few of us ever even touch greenbacks anymore? It's already a digital money society. We'll see.
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I'd compare it to a currency with long term store of value. Similar to what gold used to be.
This is a hot take. Holy smokes.
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I guess I'm somewhere in the middle. But I definitely don't think BTC specifically is a good long term store of value. Crypto overall has a long term future in our society, and BTC, ETH and others "gained" value because they were seen as novel and secure (hah!). For a while I believed mining technology (GPUs) were a good investment because of the crypto craze (and they were) But at this point, crytpo "technology" is a dime a dozen, and it will only be widely accepted once a legitimate government issues one, and guarantees it's value the same as their physical currency.
But really, is that even needed when we have credit cards, and very few of us ever even touch greenbacks anymore? It's already a digital money society. We'll see.
If you're laughing at the security of BTC, then you honestly are out of your depth here. BTC has never had a security risk in its existence.
Have centralized unregulated exchanges? Yes, of course.
If you're asking, "Why should BTC exist?" then you should probably do a little bit of googling.
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This is a hot take. Holy smokes.
If you feel that way, I guess.
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I don’t buy that. They hid behind “effective altruism” while doing really shady stuff. They were also actively embezzling
https://twitter.com/Gold_Mansack/status/1593238242899402752?s=20&t=Z2-3ERAi-V-hQStmqAJckg
Not to mention SBF’s trading fund, Alameda, was using FTX customer deposits to trade…while actively using those FTX customers trading information to front run and trade against them.
They were way over their heads in how to run and manage a company/balance sheet with that much capital. But they were also being shady, duplicitous, and dirty from the start. Originally management of Alameda left a few years ago because they were uncomfortable with a lot of the activity…so SBF installed his GF as the new CEO
You may be right. From the limited amount I've read I didn't get that impression, but I admit I haven't been that closely following until now. Woof.
But how do we know that the girlfriend of a 20-something wasn't totally qualified to be the CEO, huh?
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Turns out that lots of Congresspeople took donations from FTX and other crypto companies. FTX lobbied especially hard to keep Congress from enacting any laws that could be seen as possibly limiting the industry.
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You may be right. From the limited amount I've read I didn't get that impression, but I admit I haven't been that closely following until now. Woof.
But how do we know that the girlfriend of a 20-something wasn't totally qualified to be the CEO, huh?
My favorite quote about her thus far was
"Ellison was playing blackjack while able to see all the cards...except she didn't know how to play blackjack or any of the rules."
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So how is this any different than what Bernie Madoff did? I guess the SEC is just window dressing as nothing has changed.
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Turns out that lots of Congresspeople took donations from FTX and other crypto companies. FTX lobbied especially hard to keep Congress from enacting any laws that could be seen as possibly limiting the industry.
Apparently Fried was the 2nd largest "donor" to Democrat politicians and organizations (after Soros)and also "donated" to a few Republicans. As far as the class action lawsuit I'm not sure how you could prove the celebs are liable? Nor should the political people or organizations be obligated to "pay back the money" like some are suggesting. Accepting the money isn't illegal unless I'm missing something?
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If you're laughing at the security of BTC, then you honestly are out of your depth here. BTC has never had a security risk in its existence.
Have centralized unregulated exchanges? Yes, of course.
I wasn't specifically talking about BTC (nor did I imply that I was). And yes - just like someone can mug you and take your actual wallet, it is insecure.
However, unlike the insecurity of your credit cards (with fraud protection)- it's really hard to claim theft or get your money back.
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I'm not a lawyer but isn't this wire fraud? Using customer funds without consent to fund something else? Prison time on the horizon eh?
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I wasn't specifically talking about BTC (nor did I imply that I was). And yes - just like someone can mug you and take your actual wallet, it is insecure.
However, unlike the insecurity of your credit cards (with fraud protection)- it's really hard to claim theft or get your money back.
If they can figure out your credentials and pass your 2FA I guess?
The last part is absolutely true, and is solved by KYC. No one can hack into my bitcoin hard wallet and steal my bitcoin unless they know my user/pass/combo to the hard wallet and my 2FA. If they can do that, I'd shake their hand if they weren't already holding a gun to my head or a knife to my throat.
Also, I'm not going to defend ALL crypto... that'd be incredibly stupid as most of them have no use case or are pure scams.
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I'm not a lawyer but isn't this wire fraud? Using customer funds without consent to fund something else? Prison time on the horizon eh?
Hence why they took hundreds of millions out in the last few weeks and are trying to get to Dubai.
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If they can figure out your credentials and pass your 2FA I guess?
Right - it's not really more OR less secure than any other financial instrument. However, it is less insured than actual cash / banks / credit cards. Also, I would argue it (cryptocurrency) should never be considered an "investment" - but I think we differ on that - and that's ok. Just be aware the "investment" risk is that it has no underlying value at this point beyond the technology - and that's not calling BTC to zero, just saying...
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Hence why they took hundreds of millions out in the last few weeks and are trying to get to Dubai.
I'd rather spend significant time in jail than the rest of my life in Dubai.
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I'd rather spend significant time in jail than the rest of my life in Dubai.
Have you been? If I had a couple hundred millions dollars and was not a homosexual, I could think of far worse places to be than the UAE, taking regular trips to the Maldives and Bali
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If you feel that way, I guess.
Equating cryptocurrency to Gold is a big leap. Gold has intrinsic value, and cryptocurrency does not. If crypto went away suddenly tomorrow, not a lot would happen to the planet beyond some money disappearing. If gold went away tomorrow, we couldn't make electronics.
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Right - it's not really more OR less secure than any other financial instrument. However, it is less insured than actual cash / banks / credit cards. Also, I would argue it (cryptocurrency) should never be considered an "investment" - but I think we differ on that - and that's ok. Just be aware the "investment" risk is that it has no underlying value at this point beyond the technology - and that's not calling BTC to zero, just saying...
I mean, I guess, I shouldn't have called it an investment. For me, it's a hedge.
It, like all currencies, has as much value as people believe it to have. If tomorrow, the US government falls world confidence in the USD would crumble and it's value would tank in kind. Now, is the US going to fall anytime soon? Nah. But I have a little too much, "Always be prepared" in me to have infinite faith.
I could have sold some and made a bunch of money, but I believe in the long term viability of a non government controlled currency. Also, I am often wrong.
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I realize there isn't necessarily a direct correlation between the two, but with the Dow up 700+ points today, and $DIS down almost 1%, there's no way the $DIS board renews Chapek's contract early next year, right? I'm trying to avoid any political talk around $DIS here, but the stock has been curbstomped since Iger left. If their board is serious about Chapek being re-upped, negotiations would have to start soon (his contract is up in Feb). I don't own $DIS currently, but I think the next month may present a buy opportunity if you can get out in front of Chapek leaving and an Iger return. I 100% believe Iger would love to be the white knight to the rescue.
Yup.
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Yup.
Good call, Dish.
Will be interesting to see how much DIS skyrockets the tomorrow.
Not quite to infinity and beyond, but double digits wouldn’t surprise me.
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Meant to post this over the weekend, but slipped my mind. Just an incredible takedown on FTX and SBF from a very intelligent mind in the Bitcoin space.
https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1593019723897131008?s=20&t=482UaC0d7zewQkzJTIp2xg
Mallers is a bit aspirational and dreamy about Bitcoin, but its well thought out and certainly not the snake oil spiel we hear from so many in the space. Strike, for those unfamiliar, is really a pure Bitcoin utility app. Not a trading/speculative tool with a bunch of different crypto.
And, FWIW, Maller's grandfather was the Chairman of the BOT and his dad was a prominent member of the space as well (who is now also assisting with Strike I believe). He's very plugged into exchanges and the financial/commodity space.
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Mallers is a bit aspirational and dreamy about Bitcoin
Understatement? I think I caught I heard him call Bitcoin a "well-engineered, freedom-fighting tool for our species" and a few other references which are effectively Bitcoin as the savior of humanity. I agree with most of what he says about FTX and SBF but it's hard to take him seriously when he's just casually tossing around such dramatic claims.
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So this FTX ponzi dirtbag/fraudster who should be in prison for a very long time is apparently speaking and participating from his Bahamas home for the. NYT's "Deal Book Summitt" on Wednesday? Uhhh.....WTF?
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So this FTX ponzi dirtbag/fraudster who should be in prison for a very long time is apparently speaking and participating from his Bahamas home for the. NYT's "Deal Book Summitt" on Wednesday? Uhhh.....WTF?
Terry Duffy (CME CEO) testified before Congress a while back that this guy was a fraud and a cheat. Democrats on the committee pushed back hard in his defense. Not surprising, as he was their largest or second largest donor.
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Terry Duffy (CME CEO) testified before Congress a while back that this guy was a fraud and a cheat. Democrats on the committee pushed back hard in his defense. Not surprising, as he was their largest or second largest donor.
If you want to be honest (do you?) - FTX was paying off everyone!
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-team-among-top-political-donors-before-bankruptcy-11668949205
Mr. Bankman-Fried personally gave $40 million to politicians and political-action committees ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, mostly to Democrats and liberal-leaning groups, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks campaign donations. Ryan Salame, another top FTX executive, donated more than $23 million, mainly to Republicans and conservative groups.
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Terry Duffy (CME CEO) testified before Congress a while back that this guy was a fraud and a cheat. Democrats on the committee pushed back hard in his defense. Not surprising, as he was their largest or second largest donor.
Did he really testify in front of congress and attest to this statement?
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Terry Duffy (CME CEO) testified before Congress a while back that this guy was a fraud and a cheat. Democrats on the committee pushed back hard in his defense. Not surprising, as he was their largest or second largest donor.
Did he really testify in front of congress and attest to this statement?
Lenny is mixing multiple statements. Duffy went after FTX and their structure/procedure/capital requirements in front of Congress and got berated. Ro Khanna in particular was really after him (which makes sense given he's basically Silicon Valley's congressman).
Duffy said last week that he spotted/called out SBF as a fraud at a conference around the same time period, not that he said that in front of Congress.
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Here is the actual Congressional session
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yBuGeL7zbo
Lenny got his hot take directly from Tuckems
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoDL_VFUe68
(https://images2.imgbox.com/0f/20/48WV2ifQ_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/48WV2ifQ)
The morph into Chicos continues
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Here is the actual Congressional session
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yBuGeL7zbo
Lenny got his hot take directly from Tuckems
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoDL_VFUe68
(https://images2.imgbox.com/0f/20/48WV2ifQ_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/48WV2ifQ)
The morph into Chicos continues
Gee. I. Am. Shocked.
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Here is the actual Congressional session
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yBuGeL7zbo
Lenny got his hot take directly from Tuckems
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoDL_VFUe68
(https://images2.imgbox.com/0f/20/48WV2ifQ_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/48WV2ifQ)
The morph into Chicos continues
I see what you're trying to do, but Duffy said that stuff on a CNBC podcast then doubled down on Fast Money...
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Lenny is mixing multiple statements. Duffy went after FTX and their structure/procedure/capital requirements in front of Congress and got berated. Ro Khanna in particular was really after him (which makes sense given he's basically Silicon Valley's congressman).
Duffy said last week that he spotted/called out SBF as a fraud at a conference around the same time period, not that he said that in front of Congress.
This makes more sense - thanks.
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FWIW, I am very concerned over the Covid lockdowns and protests in China and how it is going to once again cause supply chain issues. My fear is that China uses the protests as an excuse to invade Taiwan and take the spotlight off the protests. I think this is the start of the next downturn in the market and it will break the 2022 lows. Hope I am wrong.
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https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy7eaw/robot-landlords-are-buying-up-houses
Gee, wow, I've only been talking about this sort of thing for over a year now.
Now back to vacation.
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FWIW, I am very concerned over the Covid lockdowns and protests in China and how it is going to once again cause supply chain issues. My fear is that China uses the protests as an excuse to invade Taiwan and take the spotlight off the protests. I think this is the start of the next downturn in the market and it will break the 2022 lows. Hope I am wrong.
I share your worries about China, but I think Xi is going to have to cave on the zero covid policy. They should have been using all of this time to vaccinate their population, but havent been.
I disagree that China will invade Taiwan. In fact, I'd put the odds of that happening at around 1%.
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I see what you're trying to do, but Duffy said that stuff on a CNBC podcast then doubled down on Fast Money...
While I only watched the Congressional testimony and not seen Fast Money or listened to the podcast, I'm going to guess Duffy did not bring up "Democrats pushed back hard" because "SBF was their 2nd largest donor" and that Lenny pulled the political stuff from Tuckems. I'm open to correction.
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Hards
I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.
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Hards
I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.
Why do you think that is (that he won't back down on zero covid policy)? Refusing to admit that it doesn't work? Trying to save face by insisting it does? Some other reason?
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smith
A number of reasons, but the biggest one is making a change in policy would show weakness. In addition, I have always felt there was far more behind the story on why they have the zero covid policy. It was pretty much built a wall around China and kept 99% of westerners out of China for nearly three years.
Plus, I said in early post, I think this could be great reason for China to invade Taiwan and deflect attention off of the protests, if they were to continue. They have many tools to use against the protesters but deflecting attention may be the best option.
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This piece does a good job talking about the steps needed to actually invade Taiwan - and it makes it seem extremely unlikely. However it also lays out how China can do more militarily than simply invade.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/03/how-we-would-know-when-china-is-preparing-to-invade-taiwan-pub-88053
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While I only watched the Congressional testimony and not seen Fast Money or listened to the podcast, I'm going to guess Duffy did not bring up "Democrats pushed back hard" because "SBF was their 2nd largest donor" and that Lenny pulled the political stuff from Tuckems. I'm open to correction.
Oh I thought you only were speaking of the "hes a fraud" comment from Duffy, not the overall narrative. My bad.
I share your worries about China, but I think Xi is going to have to cave on the zero covid policy. They should have been using all of this time to vaccinate their population, but havent been.
Hards
I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.
I tend to agree with Goose here. For example, I saw this over the weekend...
https://twitter.com/DreyerChina/status/1596721748824641536?s=20&t=Jlzpk5txLZn1A9Z-VGOpkg
Basically China editing World Cup coverage to not show unmasked crowds cause it was causing pushback to their policy and dissension. Even more telling is that its been forced to be taken down.
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Hards
I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.
Ya.....this could be really ugly... possibly 1989 ugly.
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"Shares of U.S.-listed Chinese companies listed rose Tuesday, aided by speculation that China was planning to ease a stringent zero-Covid policy that has dragged on Chinese stocks. The American depositary receipts of Chinese online travel agency Trip.com and hotel group H World saw the most significant gains. E-commerce giant Alibaba, which some analysts deem a proxy for the Chinese economy, gained more than 5%. Tuesday's rebound follows a rally in Chinese stocks" (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverag)
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https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy7eaw/robot-landlords-are-buying-up-houses
Gee, wow, I've only been talking about this sort of thing for over a year now.
Now back to vacation.
I, for one, welcome our robot overlords.
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I see what you're trying to do, but Duffy said that stuff on a CNBC podcast then doubled down on Fast Money...
Thank you.
It won’t stop dishonest people (Smith, Sultan, Frenns, etc.) from attacking any message they don’t want to hear but that’s Just a part of what Scoop has become.
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Thank you.
It won’t stop dishonest people (Smith, Sultan, Frenns, etc.) from attacking any message they don’t want to hear but that’s Just a part of what Scoop has become.
I take exception to that. I just questioned what you reported and it was in fact inaccurate.
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Thank you.
It won’t stop dishonest people (Smith, Sultan, Frenns, etc.) from attacking any message they don’t want to hear but that’s Just a part of what Scoop has become.
I take exception to that. I just questioned what you reported and it was in fact inaccurate.
And I was making fun of you because you used to go endlessly back and forth with Chicos here on the most pedantic little things, but ironically you have become him posting information that claims one thing, but says quite the opposite.
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Thank you.
It won’t stop dishonest people (Smith, Sultan, Frenns, etc.) from attacking any message they don’t want to hear but that’s Just a part of what Scoop has become.
Good lord, you are lying in Chicos fashion yet again. One would think you'd be embarrassed, but I guess you've passed that point as well.
Inserting an extraneous and purely partisan political take culled directly from Tucker Carlson and then when called on it claiming that you are a victim? The student has become the master.
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Good lord, you are lying in Chicos fashion yet again. One would think you'd be embarrassed, but I guess you've passed that point as well.
Inserting an extraneous and purely partisan political take culled directly from Tucker Carlson and then when called on it claiming that you are a victim? The student has become the master.
🐷🐷
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Hards
I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.
The world has changed a lot. I'm not sure that China can effectively maintain a zero covid policy. Of course it will display weakness, but as I mentioned in my previous post, they could display strength by vaccinating their population and once they have reached a high enough level of vaccination, they can eliminate the zero covid measures. If Xi is inflexible, so will be the people of China.
I'm not sure if I posted this video a few months back, but I think it describes why invading Taiwan would be devastating for China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6sCsOdqXQw
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The employment news was too good today -- November nonfarm payrolls +263K vs. +200K expected and unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 3.7%, in line with consensus.
SPY futures went from flat to -1.5% in a matter of seconds after the report.
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The employment news was too good today -- November nonfarm payrolls +263K vs. +200K expected and unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 3.7%, in line with consensus.
SPY futures went from flat to -1.5% in a matter of seconds after the report.
Fascinating to live in a time period where the economy is "too good" on many metrics and yet wide swathes of our citizenry are wholly convinced these are the worst economic conditions of their lifetime.
Yet another bookmark for the theory of motivated reasoning.
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Fascinating to live in a time period where the economy is "too good" on many metrics and yet wide swathes of our citizenry are wholly convinced these are the worst economic conditions of their lifetime.
Yet another bookmark for the theory of motivated reasoning.
Kind of. I think most people's impressions of "the economy" is highly dependent on individual circumstance in comparison to others. And with inflation, it makes it seem like "the economy" sucks cause things simply cost more. And without widespread unemployment, there is no "benchmark" that gets them to think "well prices might be high, but at least I have a job unlike Joe."
And remember two years ago, things cost a lot less and people had more money in the bank. Obviously there was a reason for that, but I am not sure that people put that into perspective.
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Fascinating to live in a time period where the economy is "too good" on many metrics and yet wide swathes of our citizenry are wholly convinced these are the worst economic conditions of their lifetime.
Yet another bookmark for the theory of motivated reasoning.
I got extremely mad at a political ad that always ran during Jeopardy. There was some Gen X woman crying that "I'm a business owner and it's the worst the economy has ever been in my entire lifetime." I would always scream at the TV, "Where the F' were you in 2008 when The Great Recession began, under a F'n rock for a few years!? Seriously, WTF!?"
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I got extremely mad at a political ad that always ran during Jeopardy. There was some Gen X woman crying that "I'm a business owner and it's the worst the economy has ever been in my entire lifetime." I would always scream at the TV, "Where the F' were you in 2008 when The Great Recession began, under a F'n rock for a few years!? Seriously, WTF!?"
Someone should investigate why according to the TV, the American Economy always seems to hit new lows every two years between June and November.
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Unlike other economic cycles (and I have never thought this cycle was a recession technically), this cycle was (I dare say) supply side-driven versus a demand side--which is historically the case (70% of of economy is consumer demand driven). Companies and institutions have brought out their demand side economic playbooks, however, and missed it.
The exception was tech where the higher interest rates dried up their next funding rounds--but who needed a correction anyway as their demand sides, in many cases, were a house of cards.
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Unlike other economic cycles (and I have never thought this cycle was a recession technically), this cycle was (I dare say) supply side-driven versus a demand side--which is historically the case (70% of of economy is consumer demand driven). Companies and institutions have brought out their demand side economic playbooks, however, and missed it.
The exception was tech where the higher interest rates dried up their next funding rounds--but who needed a correction anyway as their demand sides, in many cases, were a house of cards.
We are in agreement.
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DTV is and always has been a cash flow play for AT&T and allowed their Uverse product to finally by margin positive by combining more favorable programmer deals. Who is going to buy DTV?
Hoopaloop
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Crypto broker Genesis owes Gemini's customers $900 million - FT
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-exchange-gemini-trying-recover-120738149.html
(Reuters) -Crypto broker Genesis and its parent company Digital Currency Group (DCG) owe customers of the Winklevoss twins' crypto exchange Gemini $900 million, the Financial Times reported on Saturday.
Crypto exchange Gemini is trying to recover the funds after Genesis was wrongfooted by last month’s failure of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX crypto group, the newspaper said, citing people familiar with the matter.
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Or China will just loosen covid restrictions...seems more logical than starting a war.
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Hards
I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.
China announces major easing of "zero-COVID" policy after protests
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-announces-major-easing-of-zero-covid-policy-after-protests/ar-AA150oIz
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China announces major easing of "zero-COVID" policy after protests
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-announces-major-easing-of-zero-covid-policy-after-protests/ar-AA150oIz
I agreed with Goose at the time and am very happy to be wrong if this indeed follows through. My rep there is, despite his employment for a Western company and entrepreneurial bent, pretty pro-CCP and he was pretty shocked by the announcement. Same as a couple of my contacts in Shenzhen and Shanghai. My company and many others with Chinese interests/connections have been hurting badly as the rest of the world opened back up, so this would help.
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I agreed with Goose at the time and am very happy to be wrong if this indeed follows through. My rep there is, despite his employment for a Western company and entrepreneurial bent, pretty pro-CCP and he was pretty shocked by the announcement. Same as a couple of my contacts in Shenzhen and Shanghai. My company and many others with Chinese interests/connections have been hurting badly as the rest of the world opened back up, so this would help.
Changing the policy seemed like the rational move to me, which is why I asked Goose why he thought differently. The policy was harming them economically so much it seemed like the clear move to make--but we know people don't always act rationally, especially when it might embarrass them.
So, yeah, while it made sense to me to change the policy, I was asking just to understand what the counterpoint might be.
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Goose read it wrong. Meh. He isn't alone. I am guessing that, like the rest of us, he is pleasantly surprised.
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Guys,
I definitely read the situation incorrectly and am very surprised. I am hoping that this is good news for my business in China. That being said, I do believe there may be more twists and turns in this saga before everything is said and done. The zero covid policy never made sense on the economic front and that was I thought it would not be changed due to the protests. President Xi has ignored the economic fallout for three years and stood tough on his stance. Now, with China seeing the most serious outbreak of Covid since early 2020 it seems like a strange time for a change in policy.
Again, I am not sure this story is over yet, but any step in the step in the right direction is positive news. It will be interesting to see what happens if there is a more serious covid outbreak this winter, like some experts are predicting for China.
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Brother Goose,
I agree this isn't over. Because if there is suddenly a huge spike in cases, I have to believe the clamps are going to be re-applied.
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Brother Goose,
I agree this isn't over. Because if there is suddenly a huge spike in cases, I have to believe the clamps are going to be re-applied.
You might not be wrong that that would be what China does, but IMO that wouldn't make any sense.
The whole idea behind lockdowns and everyone staying home made sense in the early days of the pandemic when we didn't understand the disease and had few if any effective treatments, the idea obviously being to spread out hospitalizations and minimize the number of deaths. That policy no longer makes any sense with the advent of very effective vaccines and treatments for those infected.
They are just kicking the problem down the road and prolonging the process with draconian lockdowns.
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It isn't just about COVID. It is about Xi.
I agree that it does not make economic sense. Our thought process is different from and irrelevant to the Chinese political leaders.
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I don't have the legal expertise to know if this lawsuit has any merit; seems like it should have been a buyer beware situation, but this entire Bored Ape bullcrap always struck me as the Tulip Bulbiest investment of them all. Greater Fool theory writ large.
Kevin Hart, Jimmy Fallon, Madonna Named in Class-Action Suit Alleging Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT Fraud ‘Scheme’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/kevin-hart-jimmy-fallon-madonna-named-in-class-action-suit-alleging-bored-ape-yacht-club-nft-fraud-scheme/ar-AA159to4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7355795d9558454594185ab13110be7a
"A class-action lawsuit contends that stakeholders in Yuga Labs, the parent company of NFT series Bored Ape Yacht Club and its affiliated digital products, engaged in a conspiracy with celebrities to defraud potential investors.
The complaint states that there exist more than 103,000 unique account holders of Yuga securities — which includes the Bored Ape offshoot Mutant Ape Club; the metaverse “Otherside,” which offered virtual land sales; and the token ApeCoin — of which Yuga receives a 2.5% royalty rate “every time one of its NFTs is resold on the secondary market.”
Why yes, please sign me up for virtual land and ApeCoin.
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Douchenozzle SBF finally arrested. He will be extradited from the Bahamas and will face federal wire fraud, wire fraud conspiracy, securities fraud, securities fraud conspiracy and money laundering charges.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/business/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-bahamas.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20221212&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline®i_id=108420427&segment_id=115965&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
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Inflation rate down, market up ...
From Seeking Alpha:
November Consumer Price Index: +0.1% vs. +0.3% expected and +0.4% prior. That's the lowest inflation rate in more than a year, indicating that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hiking moves are filtering through the economy to reduce demand.
Y/Y, CPI: +7.1% vs. +7.3% expected and +7.7% prior.
The energy index dropped 1.6% during the month as the gasoline index, the natural gas index, and the electricity index all fell. Meanwhile, the food index increased 0.5% during November.
Core CPI: +0.2% vs. +0.4% expected and +0.3% prior.
Y/Y: +6.0% vs. +6.1% expected and +6.3% prior.
The largest contributor to the CPI index was for shelter, which more than offset decreases in the energy index, the U.S. Bureau of labor statistics said.
The numbers are exactly what the Federal Reserve wants to see — a moderation in inflation. Still, even looking at the 6.0% Y/Y increase in core CPI is far higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target.
The futures of the three major U.S. equity indexes jumped after the release. S&P futures +0.9%, Nasdaq +1.1%, and Dow +0.8%. Bonds also gained, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield down 6 basis points to 3.50%.
On Monday, consumers' inflation expectations retreated some, according to New York Fed survey.
As I write this, Dow is up 2.2% premarket, S&P 2.8%, Nasdaq 3.8%.
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Fed will continue to raise, to move towards the 2% target as you said. Question is, will continued raises eventually start to bite earnings, and if so how much?
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Record profits last quarter.
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Even as market surges, TSLA just hit a multi-year low.
Its CEO is too distracted by his culture war.
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Even as market surges, TSLA just hit a multi-year low.
Its CEO is too distracted by his culture war.
He's personally down another $2.6B over the last two days. Bring on the investor lawsuits.
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Even as market surges, TSLA just hit a multi-year low.
Its CEO is too distracted by his culture war.
Everyone else's electric cars are nicer.
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Everyone else's electric cars are nicer.
But the Teslas have a beautiful built in heads-up display that show a continuous scroll of Musk's latest sh!tposts.
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Everyone else's electric cars are nicer.
Maybe, maybe not, but their stock prices don't have the crazy valuation that TSLA (still) does.
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The Tesla CEO is obsessed and distracted by the culture wars he is fighting at his new toy, the one he didn't even want. He also is selling massive amounts of TSLA, which obviously pushes the price down. I don't know anything about "fiduciary duty" laws, but Musk certainly is doing investors in his main company no favors.
The last few months, it would be hard to argue that he's been anything but a horrible CEO for Tesla and its shareholders. Price now down below $160.
I'd look at the silver lining and say that he's giving TSLA investors a better stock price to buy more, but I have no idea how to determine a fair price for TSLA. Even after all of this, it's still trading at about 40x projected forward earnings -- and that's assuming expected EPS won't have to be adjusted downward, which will probably be the case.
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Maybe, maybe not, but their stock prices don't have the crazy valuation that TSLA (still) does.
TSLA's stock price has always been forward looking with a valuation based on their future tech advances (battery, autonomous driving, etc...) as opposed to just being a car company like their peers. One could argue that sideshows like this detract from that sort of forward thinking leadership from their CEO/leadership team, hence the walk back.
The last few months, it would be hard to argue that he's been anything but a horrible CEO for Tesla and its shareholders. Price now down below $160.
I'd look at the silver lining and say that he's giving TSLA investors a better stock price to buy more, but I have no idea how to determine a fair price for TSLA. Even after all of this, it's still trading at about 40x projected forward earnings -- and that's assuming expected EPS won't have to be adjusted downward, which will probably be the case.
Yea, I was gonna say, to be fair, regardless of what Musk is/was doing with Twitter or elsewhere, the TSLA stock price was absurdly overheated, overvalued, and completely unsustainable at the levels it was. I've been a huge fan of TSLA and its potential since the early 2010s, but trading over 1000 like it had been over the early part of the year was absolutely laughable.
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TSLA's stock price has always been forward looking with a valuation based on their future tech advances (battery, autonomous driving, etc...) as opposed to just being a car company like their peers.
I mean - you mostly covered this in the second part of your reply, but, they are a car company. All other car companies have battery technology now too, most have as many or more EVs, and Tesla has failed at autonomous driving - again, other car companies have exactly the same technology now. I get some of the initial excitement since Tesla was first to market with many of these things, but today, they don't deserve 10x the stock price as the other auto companies.
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Is it possible Tesla was a speculative asset during the free money era and is now coming down with rates increasing?
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I mean - you mostly covered this in the second part of your reply, but, they are a car company. All other car companies have battery technology now too, most have as many or more EVs, and Tesla has failed at autonomous driving - again, other car companies have exactly the same technology now. I get some of the initial excitement since Tesla was first to market with many of these things, but today, they don't deserve 10x the stock price as the other auto companies.
Sure, and thats why I think the comedown in pricing is totally fair, regardless of Musk. Honestly, its no different than Apple. Apple was a tech innovation company. Now they are just a huge hardware manufacturer. Generate huge profits of course, but don't deserve the inflated multiples that tech/innovative companies garner.
I didn't think that had to be the case with TSLA, but it has, for better or for worse. Short of them going somewhere new and different, they are far more like their peers, albeit without the ties to oil/commodity stuff.
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TSLA's stock price has always been forward looking with a valuation based on their future tech advances (battery, autonomous driving, etc...) as opposed to just being a car company like their peers. One could argue that sideshows like this detract from that sort of forward thinking leadership from their CEO/leadership team, hence the walk back.
Yea, I was gonna say, to be fair, regardless of what Musk is/was doing with Twitter or elsewhere, the TSLA stock price was absurdly overheated, overvalued, and completely unsustainable at the levels it was. I've been a huge fan of TSLA and its potential since the early 2010s, but trading over 1000 like it had been over the early part of the year was absolutely laughable.
And to be fair, TSLA's price has especially cratered since his Twitter obsession. Heck, he sold tons of shares himself to help him buy the company he didn't even want, and that contributed to the decline.
As you said, when you are priced for perfection, Mr. Market is looking for reasons to dump you. Musk has given Mr. Market lots of reasons.
It can be both, and IMHO it most definitely is.
Sure, and thats why I think the comedown in pricing is totally fair, regardless of Musk. Honestly, its no different than Apple. Apple was a tech innovation company. Now they are just a huge hardware manufacturer. Generate huge profits of course, but don't deserve the inflated multiples that tech/innovative companies garner.
AAPL is down 20% this year, 26% from its all-time high.
TSLA is down 51% this year, 61% from its all-time high.
One has a stable CEO who isn't obsessed with culture wars and who isn't losing his shyte on an almost daily basis. The other is TSLA.
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AAPL is down 20% this year, 26% from its all-time high.
TSLA is down 51% this year, 61% from its all-time high.
One has a stable CEO who isn't obsessed with culture wars and who isn't losing his shyte on an almost daily basis. The other is TSLA.
You completely missed my point, or purposely twisted it, to post "culture war" for the umpteenth post in a row ::)
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You completely missed my point, or purposely twisted it, to post "culture war" for the umpteenth post in a row ::)
IMHO, your point was wrong about Musk's oversight of his main company and about TSLA stock's related poor performance. Not sure why you have pretty consistently defended his unacceptable stewardship of Tesla and the loss of value that has brought to shareholders.
But your point about me overusing "culture war" is right. I didn't need to keep restating the obvious.
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But your point about me overusing "culture war" is right. I didn't need to keep restating the obvious.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
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IMHO, your point was wrong about Musk's oversight of his main company and about TSLA stock's related poor performance. Not sure why you have pretty consistently defended his unacceptable stewardship of Tesla and the loss of value that has brought to shareholders.
But your point about me overusing "culture war" is right. I didn't need to keep restating the obvious.
I literally didn't defend him once there. I even said you could argue his antics and Twitter infatuation arrested the creative drive and vision of TSLA. Please show me where Ive been "consistently defending his stewardship of Tesla" throughout this Twitter saga. Cause thats an absolute lie. Ive not even posted about Musk in this thread for months. And in the Twitter thread, Ive spoken about his actions at Twitter, not at TSLA.
I did say there needed to be a TSLA drawdown regardless of Musk. Thats not a defense, thats a fact. Even if he never bought Twitter, TSLA wouldn't be 900/1000/1100+ (pre split).
Also fact is that a company's share price will decline as their multiples decline due to slowing growth or company maturity, unless revenues/profits keep surging to match that. In that I referenced AAPL, which has went from a 30+ (sometimes much higher) P/E in the early to mid 2000s so a mid teen P/E up until the COVID runups. I was mentioning nothing of how AAPL was run or how their company performance or leadership relates to Musk and TSLA.
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But your point about me overusing "culture war" is right. I didn't need to keep restating the obvious.
That's never stopped you before. ;)
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I literally didn't defend him once there. I even said you could argue his antics and Twitter infatuation arrested the creative drive and vision of TSLA. Please show me where Ive been "consistently defending his stewardship of Tesla" throughout this Twitter saga. Cause thats an absolute lie. Ive not even posted about Musk in this thread for months. And in the Twitter thread, Ive spoken about his actions at Twitter, not at TSLA.
I did say there needed to be a TSLA drawdown regardless of Musk. Thats not a defense, thats a fact. Even if he never bought Twitter, TSLA wouldn't be 900/1000/1100+ (pre split).
Also fact is that a company's share price will decline as their multiples decline due to slowing growth or company maturity, unless revenues/profits keep surging to match that. In that I referenced AAPL, which has went from a 30+ (sometimes much higher) P/E in the early to mid 2000s so a mid teen P/E up until the COVID runups. I was mentioning nothing of how AAPL was run or how their company performance or leadership relates to Musk and TSLA.
Unquestionably TSLA has been overpriced/had an unsustainable valuation since...well forever it seems. In addition to being the first mass producer to successfully enter the market, however, I would argue much of their valuation derived from Musk's personal brand. Musk is/was Tesla.
As he destroys his personal brand with virtually every tweet, it's reflecting on TSLA. The institutional investors can see that clearly.
I can't see how the shareholder lawsuits WON'T start flying.
And of course not a peep from his tame BoD.
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I literally didn't defend him once there. I even said you could argue his antics and Twitter infatuation arrested the creative drive and vision of TSLA. Please show me where Ive been "consistently defending his stewardship of Tesla" throughout this Twitter saga. Cause thats an absolute lie. Ive not even posted about Musk in this thread for months. And in the Twitter thread, Ive spoken about his actions at Twitter, not at TSLA.
I did say there needed to be a TSLA drawdown regardless of Musk. Thats not a defense, thats a fact. Even if he never bought Twitter, TSLA wouldn't be 900/1000/1100+ (pre split).
Also fact is that a company's share price will decline as their multiples decline due to slowing growth or company maturity, unless revenues/profits keep surging to match that. In that I referenced AAPL, which has went from a 30+ (sometimes much higher) P/E in the early to mid 2000s so a mid teen P/E up until the COVID runups. I was mentioning nothing of how AAPL was run or how their company performance or leadership relates to Musk and TSLA.
I must have had you confused with someone else then. And if so, I apologize.
We'll agree to disagree that TSLA was destined to crash the way it has regardless of what Musk has done.
Have a good one, Wags.
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Lawsuits, they're a-coming soon IMO.
"KoGuan Leo, an Indonesian billionaire and the third-largest individual shareholder of Tesla, is calling for the electric carmaker’s CEO, Elon Musk, to step down as much of his attention is focused on Twitter lately.
Elon abandoned Tesla and Tesla has no working CEO,” Leo tweeted on Dec. 14. “Tesla needs and deserves to have working full-time CEO.”
Leo proposed Tesla’s board of directors appoint a professional manager, someone similar to Apple CEO Tim Cook, as Musk’s replacement."
https://observer.com/2022/12/koguan-leo-tesla-shareholder-oust-elon-musk/
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Lawsuits, they're a-coming soon IMO.
"KoGuan Leo, an Indonesian billionaire and the third-largest individual shareholder of Tesla, is calling for the electric carmaker’s CEO, Elon Musk, to step down as much of his attention is focused on Twitter lately.
Elon abandoned Tesla and Tesla has no working CEO,” Leo tweeted on Dec. 14. “Tesla needs and deserves to have working full-time CEO.”
Leo proposed Tesla’s board of directors appoint a professional manager, someone similar to Apple CEO Tim Cook, as Musk’s replacement."
https://observer.com/2022/12/koguan-leo-tesla-shareholder-oust-elon-musk/
KoGuan Leo is an interesting case. He's not a hedge fund/portfolio manager. He's a dude who got filthy rich from a software company, picked up stocks in his mid 60s, and then dumped a bunch of money into TSLA before a big run up. I mean, his money still spends and he's got enough cache in it to make some noise, but saying TSLA needs a Tim Cook shows how much of a savvy activist investor he is not.
This, however, could open the door for true activist/connected funds that have a big, but considerably small in comparison, TSLA piece to start squawking.
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Tesla stock rises as Musk's followers say he should no longer be Twitter CEO
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3918349-tesla-stock-rises-3-as-twitter-poll-calls-for-elon-musk-to-exit-ceo-role?mailingid=30020993&messageid=portfolio&serial=30020993.9953&utm_campaign=nl-portfolio&utm_content=portfolio_digest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=30020993.9953
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares benefited from a signal that Elon Musk may remove himself from the helm of Twitter (TWTR).
On Sunday evening, Musk initiated a poll that asked whether or not he should continue in his capacity as the head of Twitter (TWTR). He also promised to abide by the results of the poll. As of the poll’s close, 57.5% of voters did indeed call for him to step down.
For Tesla (TSLA) investors that have been vocal about their displeasure with his Twitter leadership, this appeared to be a welcome sign. Indeed, Oppenheimer downgraded Tesla (TSLA) on Monday amid concerns that Twitter is an undue distraction for the Tesla CEO.
“While we continue to see Tesla evolving EV and autonomous technology in advance of peers and driving costs to levels those peers will struggle to match—and have tried to separate Elon Musk’s non-Tesla endeavors (personal and professional) from our analysis on TSLA—we believe Mr. Musk’s acquisition and subsequent management of Twitter now make that separation untenable,” they told clients on Monday. “The combination of Twitter's unclear cash needs and diminishing options for Mr. Musk to serve those needs amid the broad public backlash driven by inconsistent standards application for Twitter users, notably banning select journalists, is pushing us to the sidelines on TSLA.”
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This is fun ...
https://www.ndtv.com/feature/nearly-1-million-vote-for-snoop-dogg-to-run-twitter-as-he-mocks-musk-poll-3620345
Hour after Elon Musk, rapper Snoop Dogg has posted a poll on Twitter asking users if he should run the microblogging platform.
The poll was launched on Monday morning and there are still about 13 hours left for users to choose from "Yes" and "No."
Snoop Dogg's poll has already received more than 1.2 million votes, with a staggering 81 per cent of the respondents saying Yes.
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Nouriel Roubini, Doctor Doom says deep recession on the way
https://www.rt.com/business/568574-world-economy-train-wreck-roubini/
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Nouriel Roubini, Doctor Doom says deep recession on the way
https://www.rt.com/business/568574-world-economy-train-wreck-roubini/
Literal russian propaganda. Again
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Herman
I always appreciate your take on the economy and curious on your thoughts for 2023. I remain pessimistic and probably more concerned than I was even a few months ago. I do not see a lot of silver linings out there and think there are a lot of hot spots around the world. Again, I would love to hear your thoughts and hopefully you brighten up my view of 2023.
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If you need a reason to be optimistic about stocks, you should just look at what history tells us. Drops of 20% or more are very rare, in fact in the last 100 years there have only been 6 years where the stock market had a decline of 20% or more for that calendar year. We were down 25% at the low of the year on 10/10/2022, measured from the high which occurred on 1/3/2022, the first trading day of the year.
Since 1950 this is just the 9th time that the S&P 500 has experienced a decline, peak to trough of 25% or higher. In nearly every one of those instances the market was higher in the following 12 months, with the exception of the decline of the great recession. And in most of those cases we are talking about double digit returns for the following 12 months. In fact, the average 1-yr return following a 25% or more decline is 21.6%.
Now, I'm not predicting that we'll be higher a year from now as it's possible that things can get worse from here but this feels nothing like 2008 or 2001 the last 2 major economic downturns we've had.
I understand that history can only tell us what has happened and not predict what's going to happen, but I do find comfort in knowing that buying stocks in the past when things were down this much has almost always produced positive returns.
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Tortuga
The stock market is the least of my concerns. My concern is the overall health of the USA and global economy. As for the stock market, I am confident that the market will see new highs down the road, when that happens is up in the air.
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Herman
I always appreciate your take on the economy and curious on your thoughts for 2023. I remain pessimistic and probably more concerned than I was even a few months ago. I do not see a lot of silver linings out there and think there are a lot of hot spots around the world. Again, I would love to hear your thoughts and hopefully you brighten up my view of 2023.
Goose :
We are full speed ahead in our business making strategic acquisitions and capital expenditures. Continuing to look for talent at all levels of the Company. Having been through quite a few recessions in my day, I tend to look at them as opportunities .
I am sanguine about the economy for several reasons .
First , people have jobs and employers are still net understaffed .
Second, Energy prices have moderated . There are plenty of energy resources world wide
Third, I see the Russia Ukraine war coming to some resolution in the coming year .
Fourth, the chip shortage, which drives a lot of disruption in the economy should start to abate in late 2023.
Fifth , there is still plenty of liquidity in the financial system. Banks are open for new business . We had multiple bidders on our renewal. Private Equity has to be put to work.
Sixth, Housing and Auto demand is very strong . Albeit tempered by interest rates which prevents over heating
Seventh , Chinese manufacturing is being move to other low cost , more reliable , venues .
Finally, The gridlock in Washington , that has resulted from the mid- terms , is a good thing . No new adverse tax laws or anti business legislation can happen for at least two years .
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I agree with almost all of that, 9-9-9. The economy isn't incredible, but it isn't a disaster either. There are still some issues, obviously, but most are getting resolved, albeit slowly.
And while I agree with Goose that the economy and the stock market are two different things, there are bellwethers. For example, both Nike and FedEx released surprisingly good earnings reports after the bell this afternoon. That both are well up in after-hours trading is one thing; that each of these giant bellwethers of the retail industry far exceeded expectations is an example of a positive for the economy.
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Herman
Appreciate your thoughts. I like the optimism and fingers crossed you are right. Merry Christmas to you and your family.
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FedEx released surprisingly good earnings reports after the bell this afternoon.
Not surprised at all by this. They are charging the same price...for far less reliable or dependable service. Good chance we move our 5 figure international shipping budget, thats been with FedEx for 20 years, to DHL in 2023. They are so tied to Amazon that everything else takes a backseat.
If you pay $200 for a shipment to Singapore or Mumbai on a Friday, and its delivered on a Monday for the last 5-6 years, even through Covid, but now it delivers on Wed, Thur, sometimes Friday (even though it says "expected delivery on Monday" still when shipping), I can't see how thats not significant cost savings and boosts to their bottom line.
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Not surprised at all by this. They are charging the same price...for far less reliable or dependable service. Good chance we move our 5 figure international shipping budget, thats been with FedEx for 20 years, to DHL in 2023. They are so tied to Amazon that everything else takes a backseat.
If you pay $200 for a shipment to Singapore or Mumbai on a Friday, and its delivered on a Monday for the last 5-6 years, even through Covid, but now it delivers on Wed, Thur, sometimes Friday (even though it says "expected delivery on Monday" still when shipping), I can't see how thats not significant cost savings and boosts to their bottom line.
"When it absolutely, positively has to be there sometime next week."
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I believe all service guarantees that were suspended during covid are still suspended for most if not all carriers.
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Not surprised at all by this. They are charging the same price...for far less reliable or dependable service. Good chance we move our 5 figure international shipping budget, thats been with FedEx for 20 years, to DHL in 2023. They are so tied to Amazon that everything else takes a backseat.
If you pay $200 for a shipment to Singapore or Mumbai on a Friday, and its delivered on a Monday for the last 5-6 years, even through Covid, but now it delivers on Wed, Thur, sometimes Friday (even though it says "expected delivery on Monday" still when shipping), I can't see how thats not significant cost savings and boosts to their bottom line.
I can tell you dealing with DHL is awful. Everything we ship is Ex-works on our customer account. When we see a customer specify DHL we groan because their handling of customs documentation is not smooth.
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https://twitter.com/veryimportant/status/1605976420479406080?s=46&t=p_qJQvty7ySm28UJkDH-wA
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(https://media2.giphy.com/media/USnfWeCOHTHB3WX0aY/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47i1aetgyy74mjxsdjwrsovps8ugpenlrmsxw2io8o&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)
Down 45% in two months, despite record earnings. I wonder what could have caused it?
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If Musk steps down as Twitter CEO, the short term rip in TSLA is gonna melt some shorts faces off.
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If Musk steps down as Twitter CEO, the short term rip in TSLA is gonna melt some shorts faces off.
Short term I think you're right.
Longer term, Musk would need to stop tweeting and repeatedly showing the world what an a-hole he is. Musk is the Tesla brand. I'm not sure he has it in him to stop at this point.
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looks like time to buy some more tesla at $125!!
big buy rating- average target price of $270 with a high ceiling of around $450
i don't care if he tweets out his back side, numbers are numbers
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If Musk steps down as Twitter CEO, the short term rip in TSLA is gonna melt some shorts faces off.
Definitely could happen that way. You buying, Wags?
I own a fairly small TSLA position; it’s down about 25% now. I wouldn’t mind owning more but I can’t figure out any kind of price as the knife falls. I’ve put in a few limit orders over the last few weeks but (thankfully) I’ve canceled each and lowered it the next day.
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Third quarter growth revised upward to 3.2%. The stock market is displeased.
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Third quarter growth revised upward to 3.2%. The stock market is displeased.
Good news is bad news. Fear the Fed.
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looks like time to buy some more tesla at $125!!
big buy rating- average target price of $270 with a high ceiling of around $450
i don't care if he tweets out his back side, numbers are numbers
You should probably read the news. Elon is in full meltdown and can't get out of his own way.
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You should probably read the news. Elon is in full meltdown and can't get out of his own way.
Do you know who you’re talking to?
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looks like time to buy some more tesla at $125!!
More TSLA, eh?
How much are you in the hole on your existing shares?
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Musk says he's done selling stock ... but has bleak outlook for economy and industry
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3920147-tesla-up-2-afterhours-as-ceo-elon-musk-says-he-will-pause-his-share-sales-for-two-years?mailingid=30066724&messageid=portfolio&serial=30066724.2950&utm_campaign=nl-portfolio&utm_content=portfolio_digest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=30066724.2950
Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said on Thursday he will not sell any more Tesla stock for about two years.
While speaking in a Twitter Spaces audio chat, Musk said he expects economy to be in "serious recession" in 2023, reducing demand.
His comments came after a Tesla stock sell-off deepened on Thursday over worries about softening demand for electric cars and Musk's distraction with Twitter and his stock sales.
"I won't sell stock until I don't know probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter," Musk said.
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Musk says he's done selling stock ... but has bleak outlook for economy and industry
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3920147-tesla-up-2-afterhours-as-ceo-elon-musk-says-he-will-pause-his-share-sales-for-two-years?mailingid=30066724&messageid=portfolio&serial=30066724.2950&utm_campaign=nl-portfolio&utm_content=portfolio_digest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=30066724.2950
Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said on Thursday he will not sell any more Tesla stock for about two years.
While speaking in a Twitter Spaces audio chat, Musk said he expects economy to be in "serious recession" in 2023, reducing demand.
His comments came after a Tesla stock sell-off deepened on Thursday over worries about softening demand for electric cars and Musk's distraction with Twitter and his stock sales.
"I won't sell stock until I don't know probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter," Musk said.
He's said this before and then went on to sell anyway.
My guess is he actually doesn't need to this time as the world cup gave him the opportunity to secure qatari/Saudi/kushner/griffin money
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Tesla's stock price chart directly reflects his Twitter distraction.
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%2Fimages%2F2022%2F12%2F23%2Fbusiness%2F23DB-TSLA%2F23DB-TSLA-articleLarge.png&t=1671806484&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1c88-86050101d000&sig=2n1vyJX_ze6.ZgCnsTnyEA--~D)
It was near its all-time high in April before Musk announced plans to buy Twitter. It plummeted for a couple months and started to recover when it looked like the deal might fall apart. An overall market rally helped the shares recover much of their losses through September. As it became apparent the deal would officially get done, the price started going down significantly. And since the deal was finalized in October, and Musk began unloading TSLA shares to pay for the company he didn't even want, it has plunged.
Yes, TSLA was one of numerous tech names that was extremely overvalued, so a price adjustment during an overall market swoon was likely regardless. But Musk poured gasoline on the fire, and he has played an oversized role in damaging TSLA shareholders.
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More TSLA, eh?
How much are you in the hole on your existing shares?
just saw this-been practicing "social distancing" from scoop :D
yes it is, but at $12, with their cash on hand and 600% increase in bookings over past few days and 200% over same time span 2019, they are going to be ok. this was a $50 stock last year. i'll take $35-40 thank you
He is big into taking L's with his cash. CCL current market value is down to $7.68. On 5/11/20 CCL was at $12.78. And we were two months into the start of the pandemic.
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Musk says he's done selling stock ... but has bleak outlook for economy and industry
"I won't sell stock until I don't know probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter," Musk said.[/i]
He's said this before. He lied.
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More TSLA, eh?
How much are you in the hole on your existing shares?
time to dollar cost average back up. original buy in at 185. i'm not worried, good company and product. glad to have buying opportunity.
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time to dollar cost average back up. original buy in at 185. i'm not worried, good company and product. glad to have buying opportunity.
What’s killed more kids this year? Tesla or dudes with prosthetic breasts?
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time to dollar cost average back up. original buy in at 185. i'm not worried, good company and product. glad to have buying opportunity.
Tesla's only current value is their batteries. They make inferior vehicles to everyone else in the EV market.
Plus self-driving doesn't really seem to be a tech that is working out for Tesla... which is where a ton of their R&D is.
I don't know man, I used to believe in Tesla, but the pace at which the other major auto makers have caught up should be alarming for any investor.
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time to dollar cost average back up. original buy in at 185. i'm not worried, good company and product. glad to have buying opportunity.
I don't think you understand dollar cost averaging. 125 < 185. You are not dollar cost averaging UP.
Only down another 1.7% today, so things are looking up?
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Cathie Wood’s Ark takes a stake in GM for the first time
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/10/cathie-woods-ark-invests-in-gm-for-the-first-time.html
One week later...
GM and Ford Get Double Downgrades to Sell. Wells Fargo Sours on EVs.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/gm-ford-stock-downgrades-51652360514
The investigative stories about her investing process being basically "that sounds neat-o!" and having absolutely no portfolio risk measures are frightening if you are an investor with her.
A cautionary tale. Wood's funds now down 65% on the year. NAV back to where it was in mid-2017. Momentum investing + fanaticism not a good combination.
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I don't think you understand dollar cost averaging. 125 < 185. You are not dollar cost averaging UP.
Only down another 1.7% today, so things are looking up?
ok, maybe not dollar cost averaging in the traditional sense of the word, but using the low price as a buying opportunity to offset the losses created from the 185 basis, planning on keeping the investment alive and most likely positive going forward...i believe you know what i meant, but whatever. is there ever a civil moment with you people??
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ok, maybe not dollar cost averaging in the traditional sense of the word, but using the low price as a buying opportunity to offset the losses created from the 185 basis, planning on keeping the investment alive and most likely positive going forward...i believe you know what i meant, but whatever. is there ever a civil moment with you people??
I wish you good fortune with TSLA, and with all of your other investments.
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I wish you good fortune with TSLA, and with all of your other investments.
I base all of my stock purchases on owning the libs
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ok, maybe not dollar cost averaging in the traditional sense of the word, but using the low price as a buying opportunity to offset the losses created from the 185 basis, planning on keeping the investment alive and most likely positive going forward...i believe you know what i meant, but whatever. is there ever a civil moment with you people??
He knew, he was just being pedantic. You're hoping to DCA upwards, but you're DCAing downwards.
Honestly, nothing wrong with that if you believe in the investment long term.
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My understand of DCA exactly matches the Investopedia definition of it:
Dollar-cost averaging involves investing the same amount of money in a target security at regular intervals over a certain period of time, regardless of price.
The best example of this for most investors are 401k investments -- every two weeks, no matter whether the market is up or down -- folks have $$$ taken out of their paychecks (often with a company match) and have it invested in an S&P 500 Index, a target-date fund, a total-market fund, etc. This very basic form of DCA has been the best wealth-builder for average Americans because continually investing, especially into something time-tested like SPY, is more important than exactly what one invests in.
Another common example are those who automatically reinvest their dividends (drip). Every quarter, JNJ pays a dividend, and I have instructed my brokerage to automatically reinvest the proceeds into additional JNJ shares. I do that with JNJ and numerous other stocks regardless of price. So over the years, I have bought JNJ low and I have bought JNJ high and at every point in between. It's not enough $$$ to worry about the price every time, and I own only high-quality, blue-chip stocks, so I always want more of them anyway. I have friends who let their dividends come in and as soon as they have, say, $1,000, they then choose where to invest the $$$; that way they believe they are choosing stocks at good valuation points. Either is a good way to gradually build wealth.
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He knew, he was just being pedantic. You're hoping to DCA upwards, but you're DCAing downwards.
Honestly, nothing wrong with that if you believe in the investment long term.
basing my guarded faith on a few different analyst sites, market watch, seeking alpha, wall street journal... ranks as a buy/moderate buy, but this rating goes up the more the pps goes down. i've seen the average price targets $272.50-450.
twitter really has no affect here despite people being vocal against musk. beware of the "red herring approach"; numbers are numbers. probably the shorties at work. when they roll out the big rig, if there is any sense of that product being up to standards and an affordable alternative, look out.
revenue estimates range from $96 bil-137B with an avg estimate sales growth of 38%. a lot of numbers can be dissected to prove or disprove a stance.
yes, many of the traditional auto companies are hot on tesla heels, but my understanding is they are putting too many eggs into that basket too quickly and taking their eyes off of what got them here. despite what many people may want(all electric) we just aren't ready. once the consumer feels ev is a viable/reliable AND affordable alternative, you will see the shift but it's going to be gradual if it happens.
next up? hydrogen fuel cells? H + O2 =water + electricity + heat
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An optimistic year-ending newsletter from NYT financial guy Andrew Ross Sorkin:
As 2022 comes to an end amid stubborn inflation, a “tripledemic,” a climate crisis and a brutal war with no end in sight, it can be difficult to remember that good things happened this year, too.
Coronavirus vaccines became available for children as young as 6 months old, a relief to parents as much of the world returned to a new normal. Rich countries agreed to do more to help poor nations cope with climate disasters. And major scientific breakthroughs brought us a tad closer to long-held ambitious like nuclear fusion power and curing cancer.
Even as the world faces many challenges, there are reasons to be hopeful about 2023 and beyond. In our last Saturday newsletter of 2022, we’ve decided to continue the DealBook tradition of highlighting the most promising developments of the year.
We’re a little closer to a new source of clean energy. After a major breakthrough in nuclear fusion this month, investors are pouring money into companies that want to harness the type of energy that powers the sun and stars. Fusion, if it could be deployed on a large scale, would offer a nearly limitless pollution-free energy source. But until this year, scientists had never created a fusion reaction that produced more energy than it consumed. Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California finally reached that milestone this month. While it could still be decades before fusion becomes a practical power source, the accomplishment is a big step toward that goal.
Real progress is being made in tackling child poverty. The number of children in America living below the poverty line has plummeted by 59 percent since 1993. As The Times’s Jason DeParle reported in September, “child poverty has fallen in every state, and it has fallen by about the same degree among children who are white, Black, Hispanic and Asian, living with one parent or two, and in native or immigrant households.” The improvements coincide with more generous state and federal subsidies for working families, and changes to welfare laws that make it easier for struggling households to apply for assistance programs.
Wall Street and venture capitalists are as bullish as ever on green tech. In his year-end letter, Bill Gates notes that climate-related R. & D. has grown nearly a third since the 2015 Paris accords. Private capital investment in the sector is on the upswing too, with $70 billion spent over the past two years. From that, new technologies to address climate issues are continuing to emerge. At the DealBook Summit in November, Larry Fink, C.E.O. of BlackRock, predicted that venture funding would flow more into start-ups using hard science to tackle the planet’s biggest problems. “I believe we will be seeing a transformation of where the money goes,” Fink said. “It’s not going to go to all this stuff that provided us good utility to get food quicker or find a taxi sooner.”
Bots probably won’t take your job — and could make it easier. Fears that technology will replace human workers are as old as technology, and they were raised once again in November when a company called OpenAI released ChatGPT, an automated writing program. But AI experts have long insisted that such technologies have limitations that prevent them from fully replacing humans. What the bots can do well is make grunt work easier. One example that went viral shortly after ChatGPT’s release: A Palm Beach doctor posted a video of himself dictating a letter to an insurance company.
We’re getting closer to cancer vaccines. Researchers have long thought that it was possible to immunize individuals at high risk of cancer, or even cure cancer in those who were already showing signs of it. Until recently, they had made little progress, but now promising results from preliminary studies are giving some doctors new hope. Moderna said this month that a skin cancer vaccine performed well in midstage trials. Moderna and others are working on dozens of other vaccines to treat various other cancers.
The argument for a four-day workweek is getting stronger. Not one of 33 companies that piloted a shortened workweek for six months as part of a large-scale study this year said they would return to a standard schedule. The firms, which together have more than 900 employees, also reported higher revenue and employee productivity. The nonprofit advocacy group that coordinated the pilot programs, called 4 Day Week Global, has signed up dozens of companies to participate in pilots next year.
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basing my guarded faith on a few different analyst sites, market watch, seeking alpha, wall street journal... ranks as a buy/moderate buy, but this rating goes up the more the pps goes down. i've seen the average price targets $272.50-450.
twitter really has no affect here despite people being vocal against musk. beware of the "red herring approach"; numbers are numbers. probably the shorties at work. when they roll out the big rig, if there is any sense of that product being up to standards and an affordable alternative, look out.
revenue estimates range from $96 bil-137B with an avg estimate sales growth of 38%. a lot of numbers can be dissected to prove or disprove a stance.
yes, many of the traditional auto companies are hot on tesla heels, but my understanding is they are putting too many eggs into that basket too quickly and taking their eyes off of what got them here. despite what many people may want(all electric) we just aren't ready. once the consumer feels ev is a viable/reliable AND affordable alternative, you will see the shift but it's going to be gradual if it happens.
next up? hydrogen fuel cells? H + O2 =water + electricity + heat
I wish you luck on the investment, but I've been down on Tesla for quite some time. As noted previously, their cars really aren't that great compared to others on the market, and even more entering the market. They took advantage of a lot of government money to grow and develop tech, particularly self-driving, but it isn't going particularly well.
Tesla, even being down as much as it is, is trading at a PE ratio of 40, with a market cap of almost $400B. Compare the to Ford (PE of 5; market cap of $46B), or if you want a growth EV comparison Lucid (PE of 7; market cap of $12B).
Tesla is still a good bit overpriced.
It has been overpriced largely due to two reasons: 1) The cult of Musk. 2) Liberals that loved Teslas and the Green Economy.
The misadventures in Twitter has destroyed a lot of the cult of musk, and pissed off the Green/Liberals who bought a lot of Teslas. Or maybe it is a brilliant long ploy of winning over conservatives.
Now note, I'm historically terrible at predicting anything right in the market. I do much better in real-estate though (not a buyer in this market).
Regarding fuel cells. Still not a fan. Don't think it will be the technology that wins long term. Still needs better technology, maybe it comes, but not confident in it at all. It's also not green, yes when we use it for fuel it produces only water, but currently we make it from fossil fuels...which isn't particularly green.
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Despite promising he'd do it, and despite Twitter polls urging him to do it, Mr. Free Speech is refusing to reinstate the accounts of media members he disagrees with.
“Musk owns the platform,” said one of the banned journalists. “He’s fully entitled to ban any of us. But it’s all a bit rich coming from a so-called free-speech absolutist."
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This should help the Tesla share price (and bring advertisers back to Twitter). I definitely want this stable genius as CEO of my company:
Peter Kacandes
@ElGrecoSF
·
6h
Replying to
@elonmusk
Maybe not, but you've got the impulse control of a toddler.
I really hope you've got some secret plan, but as it stands now, you paid the most ever to be the biggest internet troll.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
Replying to
@ElGrecoSF
And you have tiny testicles!
3:26 AM · Dec 28, 2022
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This should help the Tesla share price (and bring advertisers back to Twitter). I definitely want this stable genius as CEO of my company:
Peter Kacandes
@ElGrecoSF
·
6h
Replying to
@elonmusk
Maybe not, but you've got the impulse control of a toddler.
I really hope you've got some secret plan, but as it stands now, you paid the most ever to be the biggest internet troll.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
Replying to
@ElGrecoSF
And you have tiny testicles!
3:26 AM · Dec 28, 2022
Hahaha! He’s owning the libs good
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A decent takedown. Not as good as Greta's...
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looks like time to buy some more tesla at $125!!
big buy rating- average target price of $270 with a high ceiling of around $450
What's the old saying...don't try to catch a falling knife.
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What's the old saying...don't try to catch a falling knife.
Elon just made Tom Zhu second in command. Tough break for the America first crowd
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Elon just made Tom Zhu second in command. Tough break for the America first crowd
Setting up a fall guy for further financial disappointments.
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https://www.motortrend.com/features/tesla-musk-twitter-big-picture/
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https://www.motortrend.com/features/tesla-musk-twitter-big-picture/
There is no price tag great enough to “own the libs”
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The life blood in the auto industry is new product and innovation. Tesla doesn't have new product in the pipeline and a whole bunch of companies are innovating faster.
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The life blood in the auto industry is new product and innovation. Tesla doesn't have new product in the pipeline and a whole bunch of companies are innovating faster.
They do have a "truck" coming out, which may be the ugliest vehicle design I've ever seen.
https://twitter.com/teslacybertruck
I've seen it described "the sort of truck a child draws before they learn how to draw" and an "incelmobile".
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Latest info is the Cybertruck does not include airbags. So...?
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They do have a "truck" coming out, which may be the ugliest vehicle design I've ever seen.
https://twitter.com/teslacybertruck
I've seen it described "the sort of truck a child draws before they learn how to draw" and an "incelmobile".
Incelmobile is just some dumb moniker clearly created by someone post-Elon and Twitter. Clearly incels love muscle cars or whatever Andrew Tate drives
That being said, my BIL called it a Minecraft Mobile and I thought that was absolutely perfect. Some ad copy editor more clever than me needs to create a "real trucks have curves" campaign for a competitor EV
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Incelmobile is just some dumb moniker clearly created by someone post-Elon and Twitter. Clearly incels love muscle cars or whatever Andrew Tate drives
That being said, my BIL called it a Minecraft Mobile and I thought that was absolutely perfect. Some ad copy editor more clever than me needs to create a "real trucks have curves" campaign for a competitor EV
Imagine buying a cybertruck when this beauty is going to be available.
(https://www.kbb.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Ram-1500-revolution-ev-concept-front-quarter.jpg)
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I passed a Rivian truck on the highway a couple days ago. Gorgeous. The Ford Lightning is nice, too, if they can ever get their act together and get some on the road.
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I passed a Rivian truck on the highway a couple days ago. Gorgeous. The Ford Lightning is nice, too, if they can ever get their act together and get some on the road.
Agreed, I love the lights on the Rivian trucks. They're kinda small for an "American" truck... its more of a midsize... which is fine.
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Incelmobile is just some dumb moniker clearly created by someone post-Elon and Twitter. Clearly incels love muscle cars or whatever Andrew Tate drives
That being said, my BIL called it a Minecraft Mobile and I thought that was absolutely perfect. Some ad copy editor more clever than me needs to create a "real trucks have curves" campaign for a competitor EV
You don't like incelmobile, but you like Minecraft Mobile? I mean, OK.
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You don't like incelmobile, but you like Minecraft Mobile? I mean, OK.
Incel just seems to be a dumb overused term people throw around for guys they don’t like these days. Musk is many things and his loyal followers are many things, but incel is far from the list of adjectives or nouns I’d put in that realm.
Minecraft Mobile was funny to me cause Minecraft is such a persistent enduring craze despite clunky block graphics, just like the CyberTruck
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Incel is a title that group chose for themselves.
As far. as the truck, not all striking design is good. Though, if it ever gets to market, it does have some cool features.
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Huge day for the stock market yesterday after job numbers came in. The job market continues to grow, but the pace is slowing some, and that bit of "bad" news put Mr. Market in a partying mood.
The employment situation is truly fascinating to me. Compared to February 2020 -- the last month with pre-pandemic records -- there are 1.2 million more people working today. Wages are up, too, although not high enough to account for inflation over the last year.
My wife and I were walking around a popular shopping area a few days ago, one with a 10+ restaurants, a brewery, a fitness center and dozens of stores (chains and locally owned). And literally every establishment had a help-wanted sign up. Every single one. I've never seen anything like it before.
I know the economy is far from perfect, and some major corporations that had built up their employee count during the recession are starting to do layoffs, and inflation is still a beast, and recession is still quite possible. Some economists think we're already in a recession ... but if so, it's the weirdest recession in American history.
As for the market, I'm hoping the run continues next week. I'd like to do some targeted selling in some accounts as we position our portfolio for my wife's retirement later this year. I have several limit sell orders that are getting close to hitting. Come on, Mr. Market ... stay excited!
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82
I think you are going to see a lot less help wanted signs in the very near future. The cost of eating at home is probably comparable to the price of going out pre inflation and that is starting to take hold. I think it might seem like a strange recession because people are still spending money, even if they should not be.
I have a friend that owns that a fast food chain and he has told me horror stories in regard to how inflation has hit his business. He told me that while he obviously watches sales numbers, transaction numbers are his barometer for a healthy business. He told me that over the past thirty days transaction numbers were down for the first time YOY.
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Are people eating at fast food restaurants over the holidays? Not sure December is a good gage month.
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MU Fan
He said YOY numbers. I know you are more bullish on the economy than I am and hopefully you are correct.
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There are still supply chain issues.
There is still a war in Ukraine.
There is still COVID.
There is still OPEC.
There is still avian flu. (Hello, egg costs)
There is still wild weather.
There is still robust hiring.
There are still amazing opportunities.
There are new scientific advancements every day. Batteries. Vaccines.
Of course there are going to be headwinds, valleys, challenges.
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82
I think you are going to see a lot less help wanted signs in the very near future. The cost of eating at home is probably comparable to the price of going out pre inflation and that is starting to take hold. I think it might seem like a strange recession because people are still spending money, even if they should not be.
I have a friend that owns that a fast food chain and he has told me horror stories in regard to how inflation has hit his business. He told me that while he obviously watches sales numbers, transaction numbers are his barometer for a healthy business. He told me that over the past thirty days transaction numbers were down for the first time YOY.
I've heard similar horror stories, and I have no doubt they're true. I also know 2 businesspeople who are so optimistic that they've opened new stores in the last 2 months. Some segments of the economy are hurting, some are robust. It will be interesting to see if and when people significantly curtail their spending.
There are still supply chain issues.
There is still a war in Ukraine.
There is still COVID.
There is still OPEC.
There is still avian flu. (Hello, egg costs)
There is still wild weather.
There is still robust hiring.
There are still amazing opportunities.
There are new scientific advancements every day. Batteries. Vaccines.
Of course there are going to be headwinds, valleys, challenges.
All of this is true, too.
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A new term has been coined. Richsession. As I understand it, it sort of covers what Goose is forecasting vs what MU82 is seeing.
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Earnings season is upon us this week. According to FactSet, analysts have slashed their earnings estimates for all but two sectors.
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2Ftjhzl8fqow%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F63bcc6fcbd246-1673316092.7747.png&t=1673363780&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1cbf-1f00e8016500&sig=Uk5eLnfKLoZsidodnKCPcg--~D)
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For the second time in recent months, Tesla announced price cuts, with the latest being even more significant: 20% for the Model Y (down to about $53K) in an effort to make it eligible for the $7,500 government tax rebate.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3924385-tesla-looks-for-sales-rebound-by-cutting-prices-in-the-us
Mr. Market didn't like it, with TSLA down 5.5% premarket. Other auto stocks also are falling on the news.
Current Tesla owners also are grumbling, as the market for their used cars will be severely affected.
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Bizarro World in Wyoming ...
A group of state legislators are seeking to end sales of new electric vehicles there by 2035 in an effort to protect Wyoming’s oil and gas industries. The bill is the inverse of efforts by other states to eventually ban gas-powered cars, and comes as electric vehicle sales are becoming a bigger part of overall global car sales.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3815311-wyoming-lawmakers-propose-ban-on-electric-vehicle-sales/?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20230117&instance_id=82917&nl=dealbook®i_id=108420427&segment_id=122725&te=1&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
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Bizarro World in Wyoming ...
A group of state legislators are seeking to end sales of new electric vehicles there by 2035 in an effort to protect Wyoming’s oil and gas industries. The bill is the inverse of efforts by other states to eventually ban gas-powered cars, and comes as electric vehicle sales are becoming a bigger part of overall global car sales.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3815311-wyoming-lawmakers-propose-ban-on-electric-vehicle-sales/?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20230117&instance_id=82917&nl=dealbook®i_id=108420427&segment_id=122725&te=1&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
I guess they'll need to build a wall and make Colorado to pay for it in order to keep EVs out.
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Like 120 years ago when the horse lovers passed laws outlawing motor cars.
Eventually, the market will expose their amusing choice.
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Hot take, I at least sort of understand their reasoning. And lets be honest, its symbolic. A state with a total population less than Milwaukee knows that they won't stop the progress of electric cars, but at least they can show their constituents that they have their back, in a way. So its performative
But honestly, so is the mandating of the opposite, like California has done. It won't significantly move the needle.
I may not bang the climate change/green energy drum as hard as some people, but I think its very important, when viewed pragmatically. US emissions, much less passenger vehicles emissions in the US, pale in comparison to the emissions from Asia and Latin America. Thats where the changes need to occur. And that will come from investments in truly scalable, mass producible clean energy that is cost effective. And that latter is important, cause developing countries or less developed countries that produce huge emissions really couldn't care less in the face of other challenges they face.
Otherwise its performative stuff that may be well intentioned or make people feel better about themselves but its not truly impacting the greater problem.
I don't think the carriage maker/buggy whip and car analogy is apt just yet, maybe in another 20 years when the above has been addressed.
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As Wags said: performative. The bill died in committee.
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/01/16/well-that-was-quick-resolution-to-ban-electric-vehicles-in-wyoming-dies-in-committee/
They'll probably try to make gay cowboys illegal next.
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But honestly, so is the mandating of the opposite, like California has done. It won't significantly move the needle.
I don't disagree with most of Wags' post. One nit to pick is with the above - CA's market share is sufficient that when they were allowed to determine their own emission standards, automakers had no choice but to comply becuase CA's market share is too large to ignore. Just last year, automakers actually supported a move to allow CA to institute their own emissions standards, likely because their catalogs of vehicles would comply and there's a barrier-to-entry benefit to the higher regulations.
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I don't disagree with most of Wags' post. One nit to pick is with the above - CA's market share is sufficient that when they were allowed to determine their own emission standards, automakers had no choice but to comply becuase CA's market share is too large to ignore. Just last year, automakers actually supported a move to allow CA to institute their own emissions standards, likely because their catalogs of vehicles would comply and there's a barrier-to-entry benefit to the higher regulations.
Sure, but to my greater point, I believe that, globally, road transportation makes up about 12% of carbon emissions. And thats including buses and commercial trucking. So if every car in the WORLD went electric, that would barely eliminate a tenth of the carbon emissions.
The US is currently emitting about 11% of the worlds emissions, about 26% of which is transportation. If we use the proportions of the rest of the globe, about 75% of transportation emissions are road transportation. So every car in the US going electric would mean 75% of 26% of 11%...aka a 2% decrease in overall emissions. So again, a nice step in the right direction but really does VERY little to solve the problem, so its more performative than anything in the absence of better clean energy research and solutions.
Thats not to say "screw it, whats the point". But people getting bent out of shape both ways are just looking for something to stomp on about rather than actually doing anything substantive.
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I think a 2% decrease in global emissions would be pretty substantive. Is it a solve? No. But I think it reaches the threshold for substantive.
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So again, a nice step in the right direction
Yes. We need more of those.
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I agree with wags.
Until corporations and governments reign it in, individual choices aren't going to move the needle enough to result in any substantive improvement
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Jeez Wags!
I was at the EV show in Detroit in Sept 2021 and in one of the presentations it was stated the EV market is where the automobile market was when the Model T came out.
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Rough Tuesday for Musk:
A Tesla engineer testifies that a video promoting self-driving technology was staged. In a deposition taken as part of a wrongful-death lawsuit, the head of the company’s Autopilot division said Tesla workers had planned out the car’s route in advance and that drivers had participated in test runs. The 2016 video had claimed no human input was needed.
Meanwhile ...
Twitter reportedly suffers a 40 percent drop in daily revenue. A senior engineering executive told employees that the year-on-year decline came as more than 500 of the company’s top advertisers had paused spending on its platform, according to The Information. It’s the latest sign of how cash-strapped Twitter is becoming; another is an auction of goodies from the company’s San Francisco headquarters.
Above from NYT's daily "DealBook."
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I think a 2% decrease in global emissions would be pretty substantive. Is it a solve? No. But I think it reaches the threshold for substantive.
We can agree to disagree on that, especially since thats a ceiling, not like "for a start it would cut by 2%". And, not to move the goalposts (though Im aware I could thus be accused of that) thats 2% given the electric car influx is completely powered by clean energy, which we have no capacity to do so nor are we particularly close. So it just goes back to my previous point. The cost, effort, etc... to enact a change which would not yield even 2% change is wildly over-scrutinized and emphasized.
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Microsoft plans to lay off 10,000 workers, the company said Wednesday, as it looks to trim costs amid economic uncertainty and to refocus on strategic priorities, such as artificial intelligence.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/business/microsoft-layoffs.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20230118&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline®i_id=108420427&segment_id=122814&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
The company employed about 221,000 workers as of the end of June, and the cuts amount to less than 5 percent of its global work force.
“These are the kinds of hard choices we have made throughout our 47-year history to remain a consequential company in this industry that is unforgiving to anyone who doesn’t adapt to platform shifts,” Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s chief executive, said in a message to staff.
The layoffs, which will begin on Wednesday, are the company’s largest in roughly eight years. Mr. Nadella cut about 25,000 jobs over the course of 2014 and 2015 as Microsoft abandoned its ill-fated acquisition of the mobile phone maker Nokia.
Like other tech companies, Microsoft expanded rapidly during the pandemic. It has hired more than 75,000 people since 2019, seizing on the surge in online services and the expansion of cloud computing.
Microsoft’s annual revenue grew 58 percent over three years, but rising interest rates and the prospect of a recession have tempered the company’s outlook. In the quarter that ended in October, it reported its slowest growth in five years and warned that more tepid results could follow.
The changes, including severance and other restructuring expenses, will cost $1.2 billion, Mr. Nadella said. Microsoft is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings on Tuesday.
The company has been pursuing several expensive bets, including potentially putting another $10 billion into its investment in OpenAI, which makes the explosively popular ChatGPT artificial intelligence system, and a $69 billion acquisition of the video game maker Activision that is facing challenges globally by antitrust regulators.
Other tech giants have also been reducing costs after several years of breakneck expansion. Amazon is expected to begin a huge round of layoffs on Wednesday as part of its plans to reduce its corporate work force by about 18,000 jobs.
The business software company Salesforce said this month that it planned to lay off 10 percent of its work force, or about 8,000 employees; and Meta, the parent company of Facebook, announced at the end of last year that it was cutting more than 11,000 jobs.
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The night before announcing 10K layoffs, Microsoft execs hosted a big-money gala that included a private performance by Sting.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/davos2023/card/microsoft-hosted-sting-performance-in-davos-on-night-before-it-announced-layoffs-cRHO4k295pSWarvtfQRJ?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20230119&instance_id=83078&nl=dealbook®i_id=108420427&segment_id=122896&te=1&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
On Tuesday evening, Microsoft hosted an event. It was an intimate gathering of 50 or so people, including the company’s top executives, who got to while away the evening listening to a performance by the musical artist Sting, said people familiar with the event.
The concert would end up sounding a sour note to some employees at Microsoft the next morning. On Wednesday—while much of the company’s leadership team was halfway around the world from its Redmond, Wash. headquarters—it announced plans to lay off 10,000 people. It was the largest round of layoffs Microsoft has had since 2014, and as CEO Satya Nadella would explain in a blog post, reflected the need for the company to adapt to a global economic slowdown.
Top Microsoft executives have been a major presence at this year's World Economic Forum. On Tuesday Mr. Nadella was interviewed on stage for a Wall Street Journal panel and he spoke about the promise of artificial intelligence. On Wednesday, he was on stage again, discussing the headwinds for the tech industry, and the need to do more with less.
As the Microsoft layoffs came down, some employees described it all as a bad look. While hobnobbing at Davos is part of doing business for major tech corporations and the events are planned far in advance making it difficult to change them, some employees thought it wasn’t the right time for a company-sponsored Sting concert. The theme of the event was sustainability.
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This Davos World Economic Forum seems to becoming a greater and greater waste of oxygen each year.
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Rough Tuesday for Musk:
A Tesla engineer testifies that a video promoting self-driving technology was staged. In a deposition taken as part of a wrongful-death lawsuit, the head of the company’s Autopilot division said Tesla workers had planned out the car’s route in advance and that drivers had participated in test runs. The 2016 video had claimed no human input was needed.
Meanwhile ...
Twitter reportedly suffers a 40 percent drop in daily revenue. A senior engineering executive told employees that the year-on-year decline came as more than 500 of the company’s top advertisers had paused spending on its platform, according to The Information. It’s the latest sign of how cash-strapped Twitter is becoming; another is an auction of goodies from the company’s San Francisco headquarters.
Above from NYT's daily "DealBook."
Didn't the Theranos frauds go to jail for a long time for similar reasons?
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Didn't the Theranos frauds go to jail for a long time for similar reasons?
Holmes and Sonny went to jail for defrauding investors, i.e., rich people. Our system is a lot more lenient when you merely defraud regular old customers.
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Holmes and Sonny went to jail for defrauding investors, i.e., rich people. Our system is a lot more lenient when you merely defraud regular old customers.
That’s the beauty of trickle down economics
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Hot take, I at least sort of understand their reasoning. And lets be honest, its symbolic. A state with a total population less than Milwaukee knows that they won't stop the progress of electric cars, but at least they can show their constituents that they have their back, in a way. So its performative
But honestly, so is the mandating of the opposite, like California has done. It won't significantly move the needle.
I may not bang the climate change/green energy drum as hard as some people, but I think its very important, when viewed pragmatically. US emissions, much less passenger vehicles emissions in the US, pale in comparison to the emissions from Asia and Latin America. Thats where the changes need to occur. And that will come from investments in truly scalable, mass producible clean energy that is cost effective. And that latter is important, cause developing countries or less developed countries that produce huge emissions really couldn't care less in the face of other challenges they face.
Otherwise its performative stuff that may be well intentioned or make people feel better about themselves but its not truly impacting the greater problem.
I don't think the carriage maker/buggy whip and car analogy is apt just yet, maybe in another 20 years when the above has been addressed.
So what metrics will be measured to demonstrate that the climate has stopped changing? Also, how do you run a modern economy without fossil fuels? Tell me what part of modern medicine that does not require petrochemicals, glass, plastics, metals that have no carbon footprint?
Does CA have the electrical grid and capacity to power EVs by 2050. It is my understanding that it takes more power to charge an EV than to run a home central air conditioner.
Are the fossil fuel alternatives really clean and have absolutely no impact on the environment?
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We clearly need fewer EVs and more guns.
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To be clear, the idea that US emissions “pale in comparison” to those of Latin American and Asian countries is false. The US produces the second-most emissions in the world.
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So what metrics will be measured to demonstrate that the climate has stopped changing? Also, how do you run a modern economy without fossil fuels? Tell me what part of modern medicine that does not require petrochemicals, glass, plastics, metals that have no carbon footprint?
Does CA have the electrical grid and capacity to power EVs by 2050. It is my understanding that it takes more power to charge an EV than to run a home central air conditioner.
Are the fossil fuel alternatives really clean and have absolutely no impact on the environment?
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/044/247/297.png)
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And now it's Google's turn ...
Google (GOOG, GOOGL) is laying off 12,000 employees, or 6% of its workforce, adding to the slew of major U.S. tech companies cutting jobs amid fears of an oncoming recession. "These are important moments to sharpen our focus, reengineer our cost base, and direct our talent and capital to our highest priorities,” CEO Sundar Pichai wrote in a memo. "The fact that these changes will impact the lives of Googlers weighs heavily on me, and I take full responsibility for the decisions that led us here."
He felt so bad about it that he decided to "take full responsibility" by giving the newly laid-off employees all of the $240 million in equity and salary that the company bestowed on him.
Just kidding.
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To be clear, the idea that US emissions “pale in comparison” to those of Latin American and Asian countries is false. The US produces the second-most emissions in the world.
US produced 5 billions tons of CO2 last year. Asia (excluding China and India) produced 7.5B. US has been falling steadily from around 6.5B in 2000. Asia has nearly doubled in that time. India has tripled in that time. And China will be 2.5, maybe 3x the US's emissions next year.
I thought Latin America was higher per capita, but I was mistaken on what I saw on that.
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Naturally, GOOGL went up 5.3% Friday.
Mr. Market loves layoffs.
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Naturally, GOOGL went up 5.3% Friday.
Mr. Market loves layoffs.
When growth slows or stops after long periods of rapid acceleration companies end up with too many employees.
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None of these recent cuts have been particularly deep in the tech sector. Healthy, imo.
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When growth slows or stops after long periods of rapid acceleration companies end up with too many employees.
I never said otherwise.
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Ad spending on Twitter falls by over 70% in Dec
https://www.reuters.com/technology/ad-spending-twitter-falls-by-over-70-dec-data-2023-01-25/?taid=63d0d389ef5a2d0001ee9d85&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
Surprising that companies don't want to be associated with the racists, white nationalists, misogynists, and conspiracy theorists that Musk has out back on the platform.
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GM was just ahead of the curve.
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GM was just ahead of the curve.
GM hasn’t recovered! Go woke, go broke!
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GM hasn’t recovered! Go woke, go broke!
Don't invest in M&Ms
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I've been buying during this whole downturn, but just index funds.
Has anyone been buying up any individual companies?
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I've been buying during this whole downturn, but just index funds.
Has anyone been buying up any individual companies?
Been buying S&P 500 as well, but also ARCC, MAIN, DLR, AMZN and hint of AAPL (over allocated there already, so trying to practice good risk management...you know, in case Tim Cook turns into Elon).
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What's the old saying...don't try to catch a falling knife.
yup, that is the OLD saying...and that relates to tesla in what way?? you know of course rocks, that buying stocks cannot be personal.
average rating according to marketwatch-overweight, avg price target $209 with some going as high as $436...ya mean those falling knives? btw, i have been buying up boeing with both hands since $130. are those falling knives too? thanks for the advice though...time to short the nasdaq imho only of course
premarket tesla up 10%
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U.S. GDP up a surprisingly robust 2.9%.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3928365-us-gdp-climbs-29-in-q4-on-initial-estimate-stronger-than-expected
So far looking at Futures, Mr. Market seems to like this info.
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yup, that is the OLD saying...and that relates to tesla in what way?? you know of course rocks, that buying stocks cannot be personal.
You realize of course I posted this on Jan 3, when TSLA fell to 108 from 123 the day earlier. That's a falling knife!
But, glad you're getting some of your money back (or maybe even making some). That's what we're all trying to do. I'm not bullish on TSLA, but more power to ya.
I don't short - but I will sell holdings if I'm expecting a long-term market downturn. I don't think that's in the books right now.
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You realize of course I posted this on Jan 3, when TSLA fell to 108 from 123 the day earlier. That's a falling knife!
But, glad you're getting some of your money back (or maybe even making some). That's what we're all trying to do. I'm not bullish on TSLA, but more power to ya.
I don't short - but I will sell holdings if I'm expecting a long-term market downturn. I don't think that's in the books right now.
ah yes rock, i see your point and thank you for your "pat on the back".
forget had a nice logical response back a few weeks ago that made a lot of sense, but as you well know, there are many who are salivating at a tesla crash n burn as well, but i doubt they are confident enough in that enthusiasm to short it.
and yes, good/bad trades are always easy to analyze looking back, but i was going on tesla' historical data and the fact that it still puts out a product that is in demand.
it's companies like tesla that provide the incentive for ford, chevy et.al. to compete for the best
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ah yes rock, i see your point and thank you for your "pat on the back".
forget had a nice logical response back a few weeks ago that made a lot of sense, but as you well know, there are many who are salivating at a tesla crash n burn as well, but i doubt they are confident enough in that enthusiasm to short it.
and yes, good/bad trades are always easy to analyze looking back, but i was going on tesla' historical data and the fact that it still puts out a product that is in demand.
it's companies like tesla that provide the incentive for ford, chevy et.al. to compete for the best
They already make better autos. Tesla hasn't been treated like a car company by the market for years. They're a tech company.
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They already make better autos. Tesla hasn't been treated like a car company by the market for years. They're a tech company.
Well that and the big three have larger cost issues.
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They already make better autos. Tesla hasn't been treated like a car company by the market for years. They're a tech company.
You're both correct tho. If a small garbage company suddenly developed tech to make cars run on trash and made their own cars that did so, they would be the catalyst to make the large auto makers to change and compete, even if they were treated like a garbage company by the market, not a carmaker.
Tesla may not make the best EVs on the market, but they had a HUGE part in making the traditional auto makers up their game and not just make jokes like the Leaf or the Prius or Volt
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You're both correct tho. If a small garbage company suddenly developed tech to make cars run on trash and made their own cars that did so, they would be the catalyst to make the large auto makers to change and compete, even if they were treated like a garbage company by the market, not a carmaker.
Tesla may not make the best EVs on the market, but they had a HUGE part in making the traditional auto makers up their game and not just make jokes like the Leaf or the Prius or Volt
Oh, no doubt, but they weren't invested in as a car company. And their car tech has been surpassed and improved upon by the larger auto makers
They certainly get the kudos for forcing change.
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Having owned a Tesla and a precvious ev, and having done research on a mustang EV (which I wouldn’t touch until GM makes a lot of improvements), I would say that Tesla makes the best mid-priced ev’s by far. Too many factors to list, but I wouldn’t touch any other mid-priced ev right now except Tesla and maybe Kia/Hyundai. Kia /Hyundai could be the first real rival for the mid-priced ev crowd. BMW Mercedes are close and more refined if you want “luxury” over tech, but they sell the old fashioned way and you end up optioning out and ending up with an expensive car. Oh, and you want heated seats - pay on subscription. Really! GM still using resistive heaters, really!
With the price cuts, Tesla is going to sell as many cars as they can produce. They are set to ramp production. A money machine. It was a steal at 108 a share. Maybe a long term buy still at 170. What is the energy/battery division going to be worth if it continues to build and gets spun off? I have no idea, but there is a lot there besides the cars.
Tesla is still so far out ahead, tech, efficiency, updates etc. best engineers want to go there.
Be careful what you read. Reminds me of when there were articles such as the Hummer is more efficient and environmental friendly than a Prius. Until you dig under the hood and see that they assume the Prius is junked at 100k miles and the Hummer is junked after 300k plus miles to make the numbers work. Obviously history shows just the opposite is true.
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GM does not make the Mustang Mach-E.
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Having owned a Tesla and a precvious ev, and having done research on a mustang EV (which I wouldn’t touch until GM makes a lot of improvements), I would say that Tesla makes the best mid-priced ev’s by far. Too many factors to list, but I wouldn’t touch any other mid-priced ev right now except Tesla and maybe Kia/Hyundai. Kia /Hyundai could be the first real rival for the mid-priced ev crowd. BMW Mercedes are close and more refined if you want “luxury” over tech, but they sell the old fashioned way and you end up optioning out and ending up with an expensive car. Oh, and you want heated seats - pay on subscription. Really! GM still using resistive heaters, really!
With the price cuts, Tesla is going to sell as many cars as they can produce. They are set to ramp production. A money machine. It was a steal at 108 a share. Maybe a long term buy still at 170. What is the energy/battery division going to be worth if it continues to build and gets spun off? I have no idea, but there is a lot there besides the cars.
Tesla is still so far out ahead, tech, efficiency, updates etc. best engineers want to go there.
Be careful what you read. Reminds me of when there were articles such as the Hummer is more efficient and environmental friendly than a Prius. Until you dig under the hood and see that they assume the Prius is junked at 100k miles and the Hummer is junked after 300k plus miles to make the numbers work. Obviously history shows just the opposite is true.
great post GOO! a lot of really nice info-thanks!
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Tesla is still so far out ahead, tech, efficiency, updates etc. best engineers want to go there.
No offense, but this is way off base. Tesla is years behind in self driving tech. Engineers want to work at Cruise, Waymo and Argo.AI. They all have J3016 Level 4-capable vehicles in production. Tesla is struggling with J3016 Level 2-capable functionality.
Kinda like saying that the best engineers want to work at Apple, when in reality it's a marketing/design agency parading as a tech company.
Edit: To be a bit more open minded, maybe the best battery tech engineers want to work at Tesla? I don't know a lot about that space, just software.
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No offense, but this is way off base. Tesla is years behind in self driving tech. Engineers want to work at Cruise, Waymo and Argo.AI. They all have J3016 Level 4-capable vehicles in production. Tesla is struggling with J3016 Level 2-capable functionality.
Kinda like saying that the best engineers want to work at Apple, when in reality it's a marketing/design agency parading as a tech company.
Edit: To be a bit more open minded, maybe the best battery tech engineers want to work at Tesla? I don't know a lot about that space, just software.
Correct. Self-driving tech is something I’ve been following for years. Tesla isn’t close to the others out there chasing it
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FWIW I'm very skeptical of the viability of truly autonomous vehicle technology. Narrow applications in pre-programmable settings (farm fields, industrial sites, mining applications, warehouses)? Maybe. But Hop in the jalopy, turn on the tv, and ride to work in the morning? Very doubtful.
Not impossible, mind you, but near and medium term I think it's unlikely to come to fruition.
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in all honesty, the "self-driving" capability of an EV is low on my list for choosing a brand. it's going to be a long time before i take my hands off the wheel and eyes off the road while driving down hwy 294 onto the dan ryan or any hwy for that matter. "trust but verify"
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Edit: To be a bit more open minded, maybe the best battery tech engineers want to work at Tesla? I don't know a lot about that space, just software.
Perhaps (and I only do a little reading about batteries) but when it comes to grid connected batteries - it seems like the "old" technology of iron-air batteries are the hot new thing. That's primarily due to cost & material availability ... and new innovation that allows them to be recharged. (https://formenergy.com/)
And there are plenty of other firms innovating batteries - which will go into EVs.
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Oh, no doubt, but they weren't invested in as a car company. And their car tech has been surpassed and improved upon by the larger auto makers
They certainly get the kudos for forcing change.
Tesla has definitely forced the change.
Other than the Mustang, the large automakers haven't even really released there A vehicles yet. Most everything released is just the initial offering. They are coming like the 2024 Chevy Equinox.
If interested, here is the trade magazine for EVs and Batteries.
Charged Magazine
https://chargedevs.com/
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I wouldn’t limit the term tech to self driving. I don’t know enough, you could definitely be right. Tesla maybe behind.
Engineers wanting to work at Tesla as their number one choice, I’d put as a solid verifiable fact. Maybe there is a nuance in the number one place for self driving engineers, I don’t know.
I will say that recent articles I’ve read go out of there way to praise Mercedes highway, but in doing so gloss over how well Tesla performs on the freeways (better) and instead compare teslas city driving to (others including Mercedes) highway driving. Seems like a stretch to get the result they want. Makes me suspect like the hummer Prius comparisons. Yes Mercedes will be applying for freeway level 3. Tesla won’t and doesn’t need to yet, to sell cars. I will give credit to Mercedes for accepting liability for accidents once approved, but I’m sure there will be plenty of fine print as any company would do.
I don’t post a lot and don’t have time to get in a back and forth. So let’s just say tesla is behind on self driving. I still would buy a Tesla for a lot of reasons if looking at an ev. Self driving is way down the list of reasons why I’d choose one ev over another, anyway. I suspect that’s true for most people for the next 5 years or more.
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I wouldn’t limit the term tech to self driving. I don’t know enough, you could definitely be right. Tesla maybe behind.
Engineers wanting to work at Tesla as their number one choice, I’d put as a solid verifiable fact. Maybe there is a nuance in the number one place for self driving engineers, I don’t know.
I will say that recent articles I’ve read go out of there way to praise Mercedes highway, but in doing so gloss over how well Tesla performs on the freeways (better) and instead compare teslas city driving to (others including Mercedes) highway driving. Seems like a stretch to get the result they want. Makes me suspect like the hummer Prius comparisons. Yes Mercedes will be applying for freeway level 3. Tesla won’t and doesn’t need to yet, to sell cars. I will give credit to Mercedes for accepting liability for accidents once approved, but I’m sure there will be plenty of fine print as any company would do.
I don’t post a lot and don’t have time to get in a back and forth. So let’s just say tesla is behind on self driving. I still would buy a Tesla for a lot of reasons if looking at an ev. Self driving is way down the list of reasons why I’d choose one ev over another, anyway. I suspect that’s true for most people for the next 5 years or more.
Yeah I hear ya. Thanks for your 2c.
I'd probably buy a Hyundai Ioniq 5 if I were in the market, but that's mostly because Tesla is behind in car manufacturing quality (panel/parts fitment, reliability, and ability to maintain) and driver usability (needing to go a few menus deep on a touchscreen to turn on windshield wipers), but I agree that most other car manufacturers haven't caught up where it's important: Range.
I don't think Tesla is a bad company. I would just be concerned, as an investor, that the other major players have caught up so fast. They seem to have 0 moat. I think it's more likely that Tesla gets acquired rather than fail.
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Having owned a Tesla and a precvious ev, and having done research on a mustang EV (which I wouldn’t touch until GM makes a lot of improvements), I would say that Tesla makes the best mid-priced ev’s by far. Too many factors to list, but I wouldn’t touch any other mid-priced ev right now except Tesla and maybe Kia/Hyundai. Kia /Hyundai could be the first real rival for the mid-priced ev crowd. BMW Mercedes are close and more refined if you want “luxury” over tech, but they sell the old fashioned way and you end up optioning out and ending up with an expensive car. Oh, and you want heated seats - pay on subscription. Really! GM still using resistive heaters, really!
With the price cuts, Tesla is going to sell as many cars as they can produce. They are set to ramp production. A money machine. It was a steal at 108 a share. Maybe a long term buy still at 170. What is the energy/battery division going to be worth if it continues to build and gets spun off? I have no idea, but there is a lot there besides the cars.
Tesla is still so far out ahead, tech, efficiency, updates etc. best engineers want to go there.
Be careful what you read. Reminds me of when there were articles such as the Hummer is more efficient and environmental friendly than a Prius. Until you dig under the hood and see that they assume the Prius is junked at 100k miles and the Hummer is junked after 300k plus miles to make the numbers work. Obviously history shows just the opposite is true.
This reads more like a fan boy anecdote than the reality. Teslas are unreliable, poorly assembled, and poorly engineered.
Their tech is amazing.
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Yeah I hear ya. Thanks for your 2c.
I'd probably buy a Hyundai Ioniq 5 if I were in the market, but that's mostly because Tesla is behind in car manufacturing quality (panel/parts fitment, reliability, and ability to maintain) and driver usability (needing to go a few menus deep on a touchscreen to turn on windshield wipers), but I agree that most other car manufacturers haven't caught up where it's important: Range.
I don't think Tesla is a bad company. I would just be concerned, as an investor, that the other major players have caught up so fast. They seem to have 0 moat. I think it's more likely that Tesla gets acquired rather than fail.
Agreed, also, the Ioniq 5's look pretty cool
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This reads more like a fan boy anecdote than the reality. Teslas are unreliable, poorly assembled, and poorly engineered.
Their tech is amazing.
Correct fit and finish has been poor. If you’re a picky, buyer, Teslas not for you.
To expand on the above, fit and finish from 2018 to now is greatly improved. I’d disagree with unreliable and poorly engineered.
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Agreed, also, the Ioniq 5's look pretty cool
Thats amusing cause I think the front head on is stylish, but otherwise I think it looks like a futuristic VW Rabbit
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Thats amusing cause I think the front head on is stylish, but otherwise I think it looks like a futuristic VW Rabbit
Yeah which is cool!
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I like the ev6. I’d say a 3, Y, Ioniq, or ev6 all seem like the best choices and only ones I’d consider at this time in the mid-price range. Due to the supercharger network I’d stick stick with the 3 or Y of you travel moderately. That hopefully will change in the next 3 years with charger buildouts. Charged at a gas station for the first time on a trip over Christmas.
Should have added the niro as a smaller car.
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My daughter and SIL have a 2019 Tesla Model X. My SIL is a technogeek who is an engineer for a large tech company, and he loves the car's gadgets and whistles and bells.
I have gotten to drive and ride in the car at least 100 times by now, and it's stunning how poor the fit and finish is for a car that retailed for more than $100K new. It rattles and creaks, and driving over a bumpy road is borderline painful. It's fast, but it doesn't handle very crisply. But it does have doors that look like something from Star Wars when they open, so that's cool. It also has a really great info/entertainment system, with a screen larger than the TV I owned when I went to MU.
What I find interesting when I read about Tesla satisfaction surveys is that the cars -- especially the less-expensive choices like the 3 and the Y -- get horrible grades from owners as listed in Consumer Reports. But when asked if they'd buy a Tesla again, the majority of owners say yes. So a lot of Tesla owners don't particularly like a lot of things about their cars, but they seem to like the cache of driving the Tesla brand.
My daughter doesn't love their Model X, nor does she hate it. "It's fine."
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Took multiple test drives in 2021/22. Multiple in each of the model 3, model Y, Ioniq5, machE, EV6, Bolt EUV.
Purchased the EV6 2/2022 (days before the Ukraine invasion and subsequent increased gas prices... Heh)
Love it. Wouldn't trade for any of the other EVs on the road in this price range)
Anyone who has extensive experience with EVs can tell you how misleading range estimates are. Tesla is notorious for marketing BS regarding achieved range.
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Took multiple test drives in 2021/22. Multiple in each of the model 3, model Y, Ioniq5, machE, EV6, Bolt EUV.
Purchased the EV6 2/2022 (days before the Ukraine invasion and subsequent increased gas prices... Heh)
Love it. Wouldn't trade for any of the other EVs on the road in this price range)
Anyone who has extensive experience with EVs can tell you how misleading range estimates are. Tesla is notorious for marketing BS regarding achieved range.
I've heard great things about the EV6. Hope it's a wonderful vehicle for you for many years, jesmu.
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Took multiple test drives in 2021/22. Multiple in each of the model 3, model Y, Ioniq5, machE, EV6, Bolt EUV.
Purchased the EV6 2/2022 (days before the Ukraine invasion and subsequent increased gas prices... Heh)
Love it. Wouldn't trade for any of the other EVs on the road in this price range)
Anyone who has extensive experience with EVs can tell you how misleading range estimates are. Tesla is notorious for marketing BS regarding achieved range.
Both the EV6 and Ioniq 6 are built off of Hyundai's Electric-Global Modular Platform, along with the Genesis GV60 and GV90. All well-platformed cars made by people that make highly-usable cars. I dunno if they're going to be the long-term winners, but right now the Koreans are putting out some top tier stuff.
As an american, I'm really rooting for Tesla. They're our only shot at a modern top-tier car maker. They're just really screwing the pooch, flubbed their lead in the space.
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Both the EV6 and Ioniq 6 are built off of Hyundai's Electric-Global Modular Platform, along with the Genesis GV60 and GV90. All well-platformed cars made by people that make highly-usable cars. I dunno if they're going to be the long-term winners, but right now the Koreans are putting out some top tier stuff.
As an american, I'm really rooting for Tesla. They're our only shot at a modern top-tier car maker. They're just really screwing the pooch, flubbed their lead in the space.
I wasn't even aware there was a GV90 coming out!
But you forgot the EV9, Ioniq6 and ioniq7
In terms of American EVs, hoping the equinox and blazers are a success. Lincoln should have one soon. Haven't seen many reviews of the Cadillac Lyriq
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Ford could have a major, major winner with Lightning. Long waiting list, both for individuals and businesses. Ford could dominate that part of the EV industry.
But they have had trouble actually getting them produced, with delay after delay. And there also has been significant criticism about the Lightning's ability to tow a load of any size -- obviously a problem, because lots of truck-owners want to tow boats, campers, etc, and lots of contractors and other small-business owners need trucks that can tow their supplies.
If they don't get all that fixed, Ford will have wasted a massive opportunity.
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Supply chain issues with the chips have seriously impacted Ford. They have actually come up with several winners lately. Bronco, Bronco Sport, F-150 Lightning, Maverick, Mach-E. But, due to the supply chain, there are multiple month to multiple year waits when you order one. And then the dealers are getting involved and making it worse by selling cars out from under people because somebody out bid the agreed upon price.
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Supply chain issues with the chips have seriously impacted Ford. They have actually come up with several winners lately. Bronco, Bronco Sport, F-150 Lightning, Maverick, Mach-E. But, due to the supply chain, there are multiple month to multiple year waits when you order one. And then the dealers are getting involved and making it worse by selling cars out from under people because somebody out bid the agreed upon price.
If the maverick had an EV power train, it would FLY off the shelves.
The other barrier to EV purchasing...dealers/markups
I called 27 Kia dealerships in IN, OH, IL and KY. I visited 5 around Indianapolis. I found 1 that would sell me an EV6 at MSRP. And I had to drive to Lexington to get it. Every other dealer I spoke with was AT LEAST $5K markup
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A good friend's wife had ordered a Chevy Trailblazer 7 months ago. The week after Christmas she got a notification that hers was being shipped and would be at the dealership on (date). She called the dealership to make arrangements and they told her that because she was trying to use the GM employee family discount, they had sold 'her' car to a.purchaser willing to pay sticker+.
Kolek them.
I am not purchasing a new car until I can go to a lot, drive one, and pick the one I like.
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A good friend's wife had ordered a Chevy Trailblazer 7 months ago. The week after Christmas she got a notification that hers was being shipped and would be at the dealership on (date). She called the dealership to make arrangements and they told her that because she was trying to use the GM employee family discount, they had sold 'her' car to a.purchaser willing to pay sticker+.
Kolek them.
I am not purchasing a new car until I can go to a lot, drive one, and pick the one I like.
I think you're going to be frustrated.
I think manufacturers and dealers realized they don't need 250+ vehicles sitting on lots anymore. People will still buy.
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I've got time.
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Interesting graphic from Yahoo Finance showing that while some of the recently announced tech-company layoffs seem huge, they are pretty small compared to the considerable amount of hiring that took place the last 3 years.
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2F4u3dw9a5sj%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F63d48ad47749e-1674873556.4886.jpg&t=1674926326&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1ccb-c908a5013900&sig=plSeAvMOizAGjWWSa3YNqQ--~D)
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A good friend's wife had ordered a Chevy Trailblazer 7 months ago. The week after Christmas she got a notification that hers was being shipped and would be at the dealership on (date). She called the dealership to make arrangements and they told her that because she was trying to use the GM employee family discount, they had sold 'her' car to a.purchaser willing to pay sticker+.
Kolek them.
I am not purchasing a new car until I can go to a lot, drive one, and pick the one I like.
Fahrenheit, dat'll be wen Covid iz eradicated, hey?
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Yup.
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Aka, neva, hey?
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Depends. Follow science or facebook? Imagine if China had aggressively vaccinated with shots that work instead of what they did.
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i'm done with buying brand new cars off the lot. we go for the newer used with under 10,000 miles and car fax. let someone else take the depreciation hit and break it in for me. this has worked out for a number of years
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i'm done with buying brand new cars off the lot. we go for the newer used with under 10,000 miles and car fax. let someone else take the depreciation hit and break it in for me. this has worked out for a number of years
This is a solid strategy.
How long do you keep your cars typically?
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i'm done with buying brand new cars off the lot. we go for the newer used with under 10,000 miles and car fax. let someone else take the depreciation hit and break it in for me. this has worked out for a number of years
Yup
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Edmunds named Ford Lightning "best of the best" vehicle for 2023:
https://www.edmunds.com/top-rated/best-of-the-best/?utm_source=marketo&utm_medium=email&utm_account=edmunds_insider&utm_targetid=4dfd1ae6-7b17-46f4-a399-af3cb5ef510b&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_term=2023_01_v4_newsletter&utm_adgroup=10802&utm_content=hero
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This is a solid strategy.
How long do you keep your cars typically?
exhibit A-back in 2006 i bought a jag xjr with 12,000 miles on it for 1/2 original sticker price and kept for 10 relatively problem free years. being a little skeptical at the time-asked the dealership why the person was willing to take a $50k haircut on this car? they reportedly traded it in for a brand new xk8 convertible which just came out. i put on over 100k miles, so i felt i got more than my monies worth and it was a really fun car
i've got a 2006 (5000 miles)hummer i bought in 2007 i have used in arizona for the past 10 years so it only has 138,000 on it today
2017(12,000 miles) lexus es300 bought in 2018-it only has 40,000 miles on today
2017(8,000 miles) jeep sahara bought in 2019-64,000 miles today-i'm passively looking to replace with another wrangler, waiting for the right deal at right time as opposed to NEEDING to find a car
we just bought a 2021 mercedes convertible last week in Az with 9,000 miles and probably keep until ???
the inventories of nice, relatively new cars is exploding and there are so many deals to be had. banks are repossessing defaults at a high rate. people who've found themselves overextended as inflation kicked in etc watch out for the hurricane cars.
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exhibit A-back in 2006 i bought a jag xjr with 12,000 miles on it for 1/2 original sticker price and kept for 10 relatively problem free years. being a little skeptical at the time-asked the dealership why the person was willing to take a $50k haircut on this car? they reportedly traded it in for a brand new xk8 convertible which just came out. i put on over 100k miles, so i felt i got more than my monies worth and it was a really fun car
i've got a 2006 (5000 miles)hummer i bought in 2007 i have used in arizona for the past 10 years so it only has 138,000 on it today
2017(12,000 miles) lexus es300 bought in 2018-it only has 40,000 miles on today
2017(8,000 miles) jeep sahara bought in 2019-64,000 miles today-i'm passively looking to replace with another wrangler, waiting for the right deal at right time as opposed to NEEDING to find a car
we just bought a 2021 mercedes convertible last week in Az with 9,000 miles and probably keep until ???
the inventories of nice, relatively new cars is exploding and there are so many deals to be had. banks are repossessing defaults at a high rate. people who've found themselves overextended as inflation kicked in etc watch out for the hurricane cars.
I only buy cars with zero miles but I’m not a poor
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exhibit A-back in 2006 i bought a jag xjr with 12,000 miles on it for 1/2 original sticker price and kept for 10 relatively problem free years. being a little skeptical at the time-asked the dealership why the person was willing to take a $50k haircut on this car? they reportedly traded it in for a brand new xk8 convertible which just came out. i put on over 100k miles, so i felt i got more than my monies worth and it was a really fun car
i've got a 2006 (5000 miles)hummer i bought in 2007 i have used in arizona for the past 10 years so it only has 138,000 on it today
2017(12,000 miles) lexus es300 bought in 2018-it only has 40,000 miles on today
2017(8,000 miles) jeep sahara bought in 2019-64,000 miles today-i'm passively looking to replace with another wrangler, waiting for the right deal at right time as opposed to NEEDING to find a car
we just bought a 2021 mercedes convertible last week in Az with 9,000 miles and probably keep until ???
the inventories of nice, relatively new cars is exploding and there are so many deals to be had. banks are repossessing defaults at a high rate. people who've found themselves overextended as inflation kicked in etc watch out for the hurricane cars.
Not doubting you, but why would the dealer take such a large haircut on the vehicle. Either it was only worth 50% of its original sticker price at that point, or the dealer didn't understand business.
Now I agree with the way you buy cars, and I do the same, but that part seems weird.
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https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a42709679/tesla-insurance-fixes-expense/
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This indicator predicts 100% certainty of market rise in 2023:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3930215-sp-500-index-hits-january-indicator-trifecta-giving-it-perhaps-100-percent-odds-of-2023-gains-spy-spx
The S&P 500’s rally Tuesday to end the month 6.2% higher means that stocks hit the so-called “January Indicator Trifecta” this year. That gives the blue-chip index (SPY) close to if not a 100% historical probability of rising strongly for 2023 as a whole, according to Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
“It’s super-bullish,” said Hirsch, whose publication developed the January Indicator Trifecta in 2013 and back-tested it to 1950.
Stock Trader’s Almanac found that the S&P 500 has risen for the year as a whole 90.3% of the time over the past seven decades-plus whenever the index enjoys:
++ A so-called “Santa Claus Rally,” defined as rallying during the last five sessions of the old year and first two sessions of the new one. This year, the blue chips gained 0.8% during that period.
++ Higher prices over a new year’s first five trading sessions. The S&P 500 added 1.4% during 2023’s first five sessions, fulfilling the January Indicator Trifecta’s second criterion.
++ A rally during January as a whole. SPY’s 1.5% gain on Tuesday completed the January Indicator Trifecta’s final leg, with the blue chips gaining just over 6% for the year’s first month.
Hirsch told Seeking Alpha that the S&P 500 Index has risen in 28 of the 31 years when the index hit the January Indicator Trifecta since 1950, gaining 17.5% per 12-month period on average.
Even more significantly, he said the S&P 500 has a 100% record of rallying in the 13 times since 1950 when stocks passed the January Indicator Trifecta following a bear-market year, as 2022 was. The S&P 500 rallied 22% on average in those years.
“There’s not one year where a rally hasn’t happened when stocks hit the January Trifecta after a bear market,” the Stock Trader’s Almanac editor said. “In fact, my biggest fear these days is that I’m not bullish enough.”
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.25% rate hike by the Fed, as had been expected.
And while Powell said there were more raises to come, he signaled that the cycle was almost over by mentioning "a couple more," followed by a pause.
Mr. Market seems to like the announcement and the comments that followed.
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TESLA...shhhhhhhhhhh
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TESLA...shhhhhhhhhhh
All tech stocks are up. Meta is up 26%
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Another half million jobs filled. 2.9% growth in the fourth quarter. Shell with $40 billion in profit for the quarter.
Damnedest recession ever.
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Too damn many jobs available!
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Another half million jobs filled. 2.9% growth in the fourth quarter. Shell with $40 billion in profit for the quarter.
Damnedest recession ever.
And the market hates it, as the odds of more/bigger interest hikes increase, i.e., the economy is too good.
Not to worry, the House will do their best to blow it all up.
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And the market hates it, as the odds of more/bigger interest hikes increase, i.e., the economy is too good.
Stock market isn’t the economy
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Stock market isn’t the economy
Agreed.
Economy too good ===> likely more interest hikes than previously anticipated ===> stock market dives on lower future expectations due to rate hikes.
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It is a positive thing, economically, that we can keep running hot with a higher interest rate. Up through last year there was concern that we would be at global 0 or negative interest rates indefinitely, and that was the new normal. Everything runs better with a little inflation.
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Good news for Super Bowl party-throwers ...
The price of chicken wings is down 22% from last year. The price of avocados is down 20%.
The price of beer is up 11%, though, so nothing's perfect!
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Another half million jobs filled. 2.9% growth in the fourth quarter. Shell with $40 billion in profit for the quarter.
Damnedest recession ever.
Supply side driven. Companies (and consultants) only know demand side recessions in their playbooks which may lead to a a deeper fall.
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As alluded to...
Job market is great!!
https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1621510313085657093?t=AoCq9_sc0T9JNVESuhza1g&s=19
But wall street and the fed hate it
https://twitter.com/BrianMFloyd/status/1621512836865470469?t=9AAfHsj9QSL-N_Lp6gyVww&s=19
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Poor little rich boy ...
“Last 3 months were extremely tough, as had to save Twitter from bankruptcy, while fulfilling essential Tesla & SpaceX duties. Wouldn’t wish that pain on anyone.”
— Elon Musk, tweeting about his workload as C.E.O. of three companies.
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Poor little rich boy ...
“Last 3 months were extremely tough, as had to save Twitter from bankruptcy, while fulfilling essential Tesla & SpaceX duties. Wouldn’t wish that pain on anyone.”
— Elon Musk, tweeting about his workload as C.E.O. of three companies.
LOL.
"Had to" save Twitter. Like someone forced him and it wasn't just him trying to swing his dick around.
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The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker forecasts that the U.S. will grow by 2.1 percent in the first quarter; it was predicting 0.7 percent a week ago.
Also, some bearish economists are dialing down their gloomy expectations: “A potential recession in 2023 will likely be short and shallow,” Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist for LPL Financial, wrote to investors yesterday. Goldman Sachs economists this week lowered their estimate of the likelihood of a U.S. recession to 25%.
Additionally, Mr. Market was relieved yesterday that Powell wasn't more hawkish in his comments, and recent action suggests that a "soft landing" (or at least a "softish" one) is possible in 2023.
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just talked to my stock "expert" and told me some other "experts" are predicting tesla to as high as $1200
*All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised ...
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just talked to my stock "expert" and told me some other "experts" are predicting tesla to as high as $1200
*All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised ...
7 of 10
Ellipses and air quotes are good, solid and classic work. Little less unhinged than we like however.
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just talked to my stock "expert" and told me some other "experts" are predicting tesla to as high as $1200
Did your stock expert (and the other experts) predict Tesla's fall from nearly $400 in April to about $100 last month?
If so, I'm impressed and just might believe they might have some insight into the stock's future. I'd love to see proof of that incredible forecast.
If not, what makes them more qualified to predict TSLA's price than you, me, my next door neighbor or a dart-throwing monkey?
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just talked to my stock "expert" and told me some other "experts" are predicting tesla to as high as $1200
*All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised ...
Yeah. Inflation Reduction Act is completely juicing EVs and Solar Companies. Tesla does both. Doesn't surprise me. Elon will claim to be a genius while succeeding off the largess of the government he claims to hate. Good old "capitalism"
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Did your stock expert (and the other experts) predict Tesla's fall from nearly $400 in April to about $100 last month?
If so, I'm impressed and just might believe they might have some insight into the stock's future. I'd love to see proof of that incredible forecast.
If not, what makes them more qualified to predict TSLA's price than you, me, my next door neighbor or a dart-throwing monkey?
umm, no, but you did read the disclaimer, right? and you did note the "..." right? i'm just enjoying the ride up from $100 right now. i'm sure you will be the first to let me know when this thing is supposed to go back down again though...got my finger on the button
proof? me too
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Yeah. Inflation Reduction Act is completely juicing EVs and Solar Companies. Tesla does both. Doesn't surprise me. Elon will claim to be a genius while succeeding off the largess of the government he claims to hate. Good old "capitalism"
show me
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umm, no, but you did read the disclaimer, right? and you did note the "..." right? i'm just enjoying the ride up from $100 right now. i'm sure you will be the first to let me know when this thing is supposed to go back down again though...got my finger on the button
proof? me too
I'm not even sure what you're claiming with these posts. It seemed you were touting your experts as reasons folks should think TSLA will skyrocket, but then you followed with this dribble.
I own TSLA, too. I'd love to see it do well.
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I'm not even sure what you're claiming with these posts. It seemed you were touting your experts as reasons folks should think TSLA will skyrocket, but then you followed with this dribble.
I own TSLA, too. I'd love to see it do well.
if they predicted the fall, i wasn't privy to it as my exposure was minimal at that time
good questions-i didn't ask except my gut feeling was the same-it's too good of a company with it's position within the industry to stay beaten down. elon isn't as dumb as some would like to believe. until something really stupid happens to tesla, the product, it is the one to beat, the bellwether of EV's imho. it had a head start ahead of the others. i felt at around $100, it could at least achieve $200-300, so $1200 as crazy as it may sound, i'll temper that and take $1000
i just got the message/news from him yesterday, but i will ask what fundamentals the "experts" base their prognostication on
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if they predicted the fall, i wasn't privy to it as my exposure was minimal at that time
good questions-i didn't ask except my gut feeling was the same-it's too good of a company with it's position within the industry to stay beaten down. elon isn't as dumb as some would like to believe. until something really stupid happens to tesla, the product, it is the one to beat, the bellwether of EV's imho. it had a head start ahead of the others. i felt at around $100, it could at least achieve $200-300, so $1200 as crazy as it may sound, i'll temper that and take $1000
i just got the message/news from him yesterday, but i will ask what fundamentals the "experts" base their prognostication on
Whenever a so-called expert makes a stock prediction, my very first reaction is: "OK, what is his or her track record on stock predictions?" If he or she has a proven great record, I'm more likely to at least pay the latest prediction some mind. If not ... hell, I might do the opposite of what he or she says.
Nobody I know of believes Musk is "dumb." Some (including me and, based on his comments, Musk himself) think he might have bitten off a little more than he can chew with Twitter, a company that he didn't even want (he tried numerous times to cancel his deal) and one he bought purely out of spite. He likes to say outrageous, often contradictory or hypocritical things. But he is CEO of the top EV company in the world, and he has overseen several groundbreaking products/services. He's a lot closer to being a visionary than he is to being dumb.
Investing is about dealing with probabilities ... and I think it's probable that, 10 years from now, both you and I will be happy we invested in TSLA in the early 2020s.
I don't try to guess whether it will go to $400 or $700 or $1,000 or $1,200 or $10,000. It could. That would be great. But those are just numbers that people are blowing out their you-know-whats.
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Whenever a so-called expert makes a stock prediction, my very first reaction is: "OK, what is his or her track record on stock predictions?" If he or she has a proven great record, I'm more likely to at least pay the latest prediction some mind. If not ... hell, I might do the opposite of what he or she says.
Nobody I know of believes Musk is "dumb." Some (including me and, based on his comments, Musk himself) think he might have bitten off a little more than he can chew with Twitter, a company that he didn't even want (he tried numerous times to cancel his deal) and one he bought purely out of spite. He likes to say outrageous, often contradictory or hypocritical things. But he is CEO of the top EV company in the world, and he has overseen several groundbreaking products/services. He's a lot closer to being a visionary than he is to being dumb.
Investing is about dealing with probabilities ... and I think it's probable that, 10 years from now, both you and I will be happy we invested in TSLA in the early 2020s.
I don't try to guess whether it will go to $400 or $700 or $1,000 or $1,200 or $10,000. It could. That would be great. But those are just numbers that people are blowing out their you-know-whats.
i've been using a guy from edward jones for over 20 years and he has been right more then wrong, however, his "expert" analysis isn't just his own, but also from edward jones, morningstar among others. i also use marketwatch as an adjunct only. a little bit of ear to the ground as well
elon took over twitter because he knew something was desperately wrong with the dissemination of information and how it was acting as a "gate keeper" to what was allowed to be discussed. if one was honest, you know as well as i that something didn't smell right regardless of your slant. i'm sure he had people in his ear about exposing twitter's misinformation campaign. did twitter have the right to do what it was doing? as a private company-yes, but not if the FBI and DOJ was breathing down their backs essentially saying-nice company ya gots here...be a shame if anything happened to your family...not to mention, MOST of the people being employed there were flying the "D" flag. again, if one was honest, he took over twitter to at leat level the playing field at least. if twitter was in fact a private company, "the other guys" should have been paying for the generous campaigning being done for them
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i've been using a guy from edward jones for over 20 years and he has been right more then wrong, however, his "expert" analysis isn't just his own, but also from edward jones, morningstar among others. i also use marketwatch as an adjunct only. a little bit of ear to the ground as well
elon took over twitter because he knew something was desperately wrong with the dissemination of information and how it was acting as a "gate keeper" to what was allowed to be discussed. if one was honest, you know as well as i that something didn't smell right regardless of your slant. i'm sure he had people in his ear about exposing twitter's misinformation campaign. did twitter have the right to do what it was doing? as a private company-yes, but not if the FBI and DOJ was breathing down their backs essentially saying-nice company ya gots here...be a shame if anything happened to your family...not to mention, MOST of the people being employed there were flying the "D" flag. again, if one was honest, he took over twitter to at leat level the playing field at least. if twitter was in fact a private company, "the other guys" should have been paying for the generous campaigning being done for them
Not gonna get into a political discussion with you in the investing thread. The fact is that Musk got mad, made an offer to overpay for Twitter, realized he didn't want it, desperately tried to get out of the deal, completed the deal only because he was forced to do so, and then sold off a bunch of TSLA stock to help pay for Twitter. As I said, I believe he is the opposite of "dumb," but he cornered himself into making a dumb business deal out of spite. All the while, he has portrayed himself as a champion of "free speech" -- but he cancels (or fires) anybody who dares disagree with him.
None of the above bothered me enough as an investor to sell my TSLA shares ... though I sure wish one of your experts had told me to do so when it was at $400!
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i've been using a guy from edward jones for over 20 years and he has been right more then wrong, however, his "expert" analysis isn't just his own, but also from edward jones, morningstar among others. i also use marketwatch as an adjunct only. a little bit of ear to the ground as well
elon took over twitter because he knew something was desperately wrong with the dissemination of information and how it was acting as a "gate keeper" to what was allowed to be discussed. if one was honest, you know as well as i that something didn't smell right regardless of your slant. i'm sure he had people in his ear about exposing twitter's misinformation campaign. did twitter have the right to do what it was doing? as a private company-yes, but not if the FBI and DOJ was breathing down their backs essentially saying-nice company ya gots here...be a shame if anything happened to your family...not to mention, MOST of the people being employed there were flying the "D" flag. again, if one was honest, he took over twitter to at leat level the playing field at least. if twitter was in fact a private company, "the other guys" should have been paying for the generous campaigning being done for them
(https://gumlet.assettype.com/afkgaming%2F2021-08%2F79649079-d0e7-4acd-853b-6a2b92797da3%2Fcopium_png.png?auto=format%2Ccompress&dpr=1.0&w=1200)
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This thread is a strong case for why financial advisors make so much money helping folks not make emotional decisions.
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i've been using a guy from edward jones for over 20 years and he has been right more then wrong, however, his "expert" analysis isn't just his own, but also from edward jones, morningstar among others. i also use marketwatch as an adjunct only. a little bit of ear to the ground as well
elon took over twitter because he knew something was desperately wrong with the dissemination of information and how it was acting as a "gate keeper" to what was allowed to be discussed. if one was honest, you know as well as i that something didn't smell right regardless of your slant. i'm sure he had people in his ear about exposing twitter's misinformation campaign. did twitter have the right to do what it was doing? as a private company-yes, but not if the FBI and DOJ was breathing down their backs essentially saying-nice company ya gots here...be a shame if anything happened to your family...not to mention, MOST of the people being employed there were flying the "D" flag. again, if one was honest, he took over twitter to at leat level the playing field at least. if twitter was in fact a private company, "the other guys" should have been paying for the generous campaigning being done for them
Whoa. Almost missed this. The moon is made of cheese, too.
9 out of 10
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BoA CEO sees little signs of recession
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/banking/article272503936.html#storylink=cpy
The recession that economists and investors feared in 2022 hasn’t happened yet, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said Tuesday.
During livestreamed remarks at the Bank of America Securities Financial Services Conference in New York City, the chief executive of the Charlotte-based bank said that so far, he isn’t seeing any signs of a downturn. Consumers are still spending, wealthy bank clients are still investing their cash and businesses have yet to see profits drop off, Moynihan said.
“They’re trying to be careful,” he said of the bank’s commercial customers. “But most of them, honestly, when you ask them are saying ‘I thought I’d be in worse condition right now. I thought I’d be facing more pressures, and things are still fine.’”
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As it strived to gain the upper hand against Tesla in at least one important category, Ford had a massive built-in audience for its EV truck. But it has been one thing after another with the F-150 Lightning -- and now issues with the battery just forced the company to suspend production.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3935858-ford-halts-electric-f-150-production-due-to-battery-issue
What a wasted opportunity for Ford.
Of course, Tesla also is at least a couple years behind get its butt-ugly truck out; Musk has moved back the production date over and over again.
Rivian, which does have its gorgeous EV trucks on the road (but not many of them), isn't equipped to meet demand.
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Ford has wasted a number of opportunities. And their build quality has been below average.
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Ford has wasted a number of opportunities. And their build quality has been below average.
Yep. I am in the market for an SUV right now and I really like the look of the Mustang Mach-E. I sat in one at the Charlotte Auto Show a few months ago and it was one of the more comfortable vehicles I tried. However, it has been beset with numerous quality-control issues and it does not get a passing grade from Consumer Reports. It's also expensive, and if I'm gonna spend that kind of money I want something that won't be in the shop constantly.
And the truck is an even bigger lost opportunity. There literally are hundreds of thousands of potential customers who really want to buy that truck, lots of whom have put down deposits. A shame that Ford can't get things right, tower.
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Yep. I am in the market for an SUV right now and I really like the look of the Mustang Mach-E. I sat in one at the Charlotte Auto Show a few months ago and it was one of the more comfortable vehicles I tried. However, it has been beset with numerous quality-control issues and it does not get a passing grade from Consumer Reports. It's also expensive, and if I'm gonna spend that kind of money I want something that won't be in the shop constantly.
And the truck is an even bigger lost opportunity. There literally are hundreds of thousands of potential customers who really want to buy that truck, lots of whom have put down deposits. A shame that Ford can't get things right, tower.
The EV6 from Kia is really slick looking: https://www.kia.com/us/en/ev6
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The EV6 from Kia is really slick looking: https://www.kia.com/us/en/ev6
Thanks. I like the EV6 but it's a little small for my needs. Also difficult to get.
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Thanks. I like the EV6 but it's a little small for my needs. Also difficult to get.
Gotcha, not to go off topic 😂, but I’ve kept my eye on ioniq 5 and ID.4 which are both similar sized to the Mach-e
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The EV6 from Kia is really slick looking: https://www.kia.com/us/en/ev6
I've owned one for exactly 51 weeks. AMA
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Gotcha, not to go off topic 😂, but I’ve kept my eye on ioniq 5 and ID.4 which are both similar sized to the Mach-e
IMO, skip the ID4 for sure. At least wait for the audi Q4
MachE...eh. Think the I5 and EV6 are better cars and better EVs in nearly every way
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IMO, skip the ID4 for sure. At least wait for the audi Q4
MachE...eh. Think the I5 and EV6 are better cars and better EVs in nearly every way
Thanks! Haven't seen on I6 yet in person, but online 8-) 8-) 8-)
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Saw my first Lucid Air on 294 yesterday. Looked gooooooood.
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I've owned one for exactly 51 weeks. AMA
Sounds like you've liked it?
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Sounds like you've liked it?
There are a couple EV specific things missing. But it's nit-picking.
Love it
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Thanks! Haven't seen on I6 yet in person, but online 8-) 8-) 8-)
I like the i6 cockpit significantly better than the i5
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Saw my first Lucid Air on 294 yesterday. Looked gooooooood.
You would hope so, considering the price
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IMO, skip the ID4 for sure. At least wait for the audi Q4
MachE...eh. Think the I5 and EV6 are better cars and better EVs in nearly every way
Out or curiosity, what is your issue with the ID.4?
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I live in Lake County IL and see Lucids and Rivians constantly, and have been seeing them for at least the last 6 months.
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I see Rivians everywhere.
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Rivians are available to their factory employees (Bloomington, IL) at a huge discount. The employees purchase the car and the company reimburses a portion of their monthly payment for 2 years.
Most of the owners I've spoken to at charging stations will be selling them once their discount ends.
Said another way...there will be a lot of rivians on the used market in 1-2 years
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https://www.motortrend.com/news/ford-f-150-lightning-on-hold-battery-pack-issue/
One way to heat a house when the power goes out.
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I see Rivians everywhere.
Their stock prices suck
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For now there is one clear winner in the EV space, the Model 3, for a lot of reasons. But one would want the long range (AWD) for colder areas or snowy areas. But the catch is you have to want a sedan, you can’t even order a long range one now due to backlog, and even if you could order now you should wait for the refresh later this year. For overall the winner for now. Even consumer reports just said so.
The legacy and newer companies are getting there, but have continued problems, except that Kia/Hyundai are ahead of the other legacy manufacturers at least as far as batteries, efficiency, charging, and ev drive trains go. And coolness :) Nissan is okay in that regard for shorter trips and a city car, no coolness and less practical for an only car for someone who drives a lot or some distances. VW has been beset with problems, probably came out with cars to fast due to scandal and switch to trying to become an ev company at scale. VW might be the first to market with a 25k decent ev. Hopefully they get it right. That would be really nice to have a solid 25k option before Tesla and others get there. Need competition.
So in the more affordable class you’re kind of stuck with Kia/Hyundai, model 3 or Y for now. Or pay a lot more for not more other than style and status if that’s your thing.
Model 3 is the safe choice and the one I’d go with if I were looking later this year after the refresh. But would consider the others mentioned in this thread Re Hyundai Kia. Nice to at least have competition for Tesla and need more to keep prices down and drive them even lower. Tesla making major advances on battery costs at scale, so that will help their margins, but they won’t lower prices without competition pushing them.
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For now there is one clear winner in the EV space, the Model 3, for a lot of reasons. But one would want the long range (AWD) for colder areas or snowy areas. But the catch is you have to want a sedan, you can’t even order a long range one now due to backlog, and even if you could order now you should wait for the refresh later this year. For overall the winner for now. Even consumer reports just said so.
The legacy and newer companies are getting there, but have continued problems, except that Kia/Hyundai are ahead of the other legacy manufacturers at least as far as batteries, efficiency, charging, and ev drive trains go. And coolness :) Nissan is okay in that regard for shorter trips and a city car, no coolness and less practical for an only car for someone who drives a lot or some distances. VW has been beset with problems, probably came out with cars to fast due to scandal and switch to trying to become an ev company at scale. VW might be the first to market with a 25k decent ev. Hopefully they get it right. That would be really nice to have a solid 25k option before Tesla and others get there. Need competition.
So in the more affordable class you’re kind of stuck with Kia/Hyundai, model 3 or Y for now. Or pay a lot more for not more other than style and status if that’s your thing.
Model 3 is the safe choice and the one I’d go with if I were looking later this year after the refresh. But would consider the others mentioned in this thread Re Hyundai Kia. Nice to at least have competition for Tesla and need more to keep prices down and drive them even lower. Tesla making major advances on battery costs at scale, so that will help their margins, but they won’t lower prices without competition pushing them.
I disagree
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Good. And I like the short response. Neither of us needs to waste more time.
Edit as I had to post quickly: Good because there can be a legitimate discussion and that wasn’t the case less than 2 years ago, and the discussion is not “ev vehicles suck and and worse for the environment etc than a gas F150” but rather about which ev is better. And yes, there are some very inefficient ev’s that should be avoided.
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Good. And I like the short response. Neither of us needs to waste more time.
Edit as I had to post quickly: Good because there can be a legitimate discussion and that wasn’t the case less than 2 years ago, and the discussion is not “ev vehicles suck and and worse for the environment etc than a gas F150” but rather about which ev is better. And yes, there are some very inefficient ev’s that should be avoided.
Agreed to all.
Model 3 just ain't my cup of tea design/style-wise. Their drivetrain in unparalleled in efficiency and the outside-the-home charging is unmatched in spread and reliability.
When a company makes an inefficient EV, it's clearly just a compliance vehicle meant to bring the fleet in line with regulations. Looking at you, Mazda.
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nm
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i see ya got your fix in under the guise of, i don't know, investing?
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There is a great deal of turbulence coming to the markets. I believe the Fed and government has been out of touch in handling this economy. First the FDIC only guarantee $250k is beyond insane. Secondly, I do not believe the average American has been educated on the risks that are out there.
Unfortunately, I think tomorrow will be a day that will be focused on the banking sector and the overall economy, not MU basketball for this guy.
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There is a great deal of turbulence coming to the markets. I believe the Fed and government has been out of touch in handling this economy. First the FDIC only guarantee $250k is beyond insane. Secondly, I do not believe the average American has been educated on the risks that are out there.
Unfortunately, I think tomorrow will be a day that will be focused on the banking sector and the overall economy, not MU basketball for this guy.
So the Fed has been raising rates to try to curtail high inflation and an overheating economy with record employment. What do you think the Fed/gov't should be doing instead to rein in inflation?
How is the Fed doing what they can to curtail inflation related to the last administration deregulating banks with under $250B in holdings, leading to the recent failure of SVB going into FDIC receivership?
Do you think that the asset sale of SVB will take too long to make their depositors whole? What risks do you to the larger banking sector, especially when the medium and big boys are regulated totally differently and don't have the same risks?
Edit: I disagree with you but I'm not trying to pick a fight. Just curious how people view this thing since the market is an emotional beast.
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Goose, the FDIC guarantee is $500K for a couple with a joint account. It's also $500K or $250K per account, not per person. So an individual who is lucky enough to have, say, $5 million cash can fully insure every penny of it if he or she spreads it around between 20 banks. (Or 10 for a couple.)
I'll let others debate the condition of the economy -- but just wanted to include that about FDIC insurance.
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82
There are thousands of companies with millions in deposits, and that is the concern, imo. There has been so much money invested in start up companies that has employed an awful a lot of people. I have zero concern of average joe causing a bank run, but a lot of smart people are exposed to big risks.
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Skatastrophy
I have voiced my opinion many times that I thought the Fed was way late in getting inflation tamed. I am not going to debate why the inflation has gotten out of hand, but it should not have been a surprise to the Fed.
As for overheated economy, if paying $90 rather than $60 for a couple of burgers and beer is your idea of a strong economy, we disagree on the topic. As for record employment, that is correct but warning signs there as well. A lot of high paying white collar jobs have been lost in tech and finance over the past six months and likely more to come. Maybe as early as tomorrow.
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Goose, no one is paying 50% more for "a couple burgers and beer" than they were a few months ago. You've been dooming the economy for awhile, yet...
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Sultan
Have you been to Elsa’s over the past year? They have raised prices multiple times.
You are correct I have been dooming the economy for quite some time. Not exactly sure what your point is, I think there are lot smarter people than me that have voiced concerns as well.
I will add that it was reported that top financial minds briefed the White House today over concerns going into tomorrow.
I would much rather be talking about massive amounts of money that is hanging off of trees than dooming the economy.
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I have not been to Elsa's but I have been plenty of places. Yet to see 50% increases however.
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Goose, the FDIC guarantee is $500K for a couple with a joint account. It's also $500K or $250K per account, not per person. So an individual who is lucky enough to have, say, $5 million cash can fully insure every penny of it if he or she spreads it around between 20 banks. (Or 10 for a couple.)
I'll let others debate the condition of the economy -- but just wanted to include that about FDIC insurance.
This is correct. Husband/wife is $500K, single is $250K and that is per account, not per bank. In last six months I have transferred and opened 12 month CDs in a joint accounts. I have been using Capital One Bank, which currently offering 5.00% for 11 month CDs. The deal runs out on 3/14/23 on that rate.
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Quit drinking beer. Dropped my bills so much.
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tower
I said beer, but I am a bourbon guy and my wife is wine person. You are correct on saving money, it was very noticeable during dry January.
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This is correct. Husband/wife is $500K, single is $250K and that is per account, not per bank. In last six months I have transferred and opened 12 month CDs in a joint accounts. I have been using Capital One Bank, which currently offering 5.00% for 11 month CDs. The deal runs out on 3/14/23 on that rate.
To be specific in case anyone is interested in this stuff: FDIC insurance per account is per dissimilar account. If you have 2 checking accounts at one FI, they will be considered to be one account for FDIC insurance purposes. If you have a checking and a savings account, those are considered separate and are insured separately. If you have a taxable, roth, and trad IRA account at Vanguard, those are considered 3 separate accounts. Your invested money is covered by SIPC. The FDIC insures cash. SIPC insures up to $500k invested, so it behooves you to have a few accounts at different institutions as you grow your nest egg past $500k invested in an individual account.
Happy to be corrected if I'm imprecise about something.
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Good news. Bailed out
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Good news. Bailed out
Making depositors whole. Investors are still up a creek. Fair, imo.
The Federal Reserve, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced in a joint statement that, “depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/12/business/janet-yellen-silicon-valley-bank.html
Additional bad news, Signature Bank (servicing law firms) also entering conservatership. Same deal as SVB. Signature has $110B AUM, so about half the size as SVB.
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Making depositors whole. Investors are still up a creek. Fair, imo.
The Federal Reserve, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced in a joint statement that, “depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/12/business/janet-yellen-silicon-valley-bank.html
Additional bad news, Signature Bank (servicing law firms) also entering conservatership. Same deal as SVB. Signature has $110B AUM, so about half the size as SVB.
Where does the money come from for the bailout?
Isn't Signature Barney Frank's bank?
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Where does the money come from for the bailout?
Isn't Signature Barney Frank's bank?
I'm no expert, but I think it's a loan from the FDIC's fund while they assess the respective FI's books and liquidate assets. Just trying to accellerate money to market.
From the NYT
> The government’s plan to avert a catastrophe took advantage of an exception that allows the F.D.I.C., which is usually supposed to clean up a failed bank in the cheapest way possible, to risk incurring additional costs if there is a risk to the financial system involved. The regulator will tap the Deposit Insurance Fund to make sure it can pay back depositors in full. That fund comes from fees paid by the banking industry, which the Treasury official emphasized.
> The agencies said that “any losses to the Deposit Insurance Fund to support uninsured depositors will be recovered by a special assessment on banks, as required by law.”
> The Fed’s new lending program will be backed by $25 billion in cash from a pot of money at the Treasury. The facility will offer up to one-year loans to banks, savings associations, credit unions and other eligible depository institutions in exchange for collateral including U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities.
Also, the Federal Reserve is stepping in to allay market fears by providing a backstop for any banks having depositor issues next week. Probably just in case the boomers make a run on the banks. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm
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Skat
Yeah, they were concerned about a Boomer run on the bank. I do hope that was a joke.
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Sultan
Have you been to Elsa’s over the past year? They have raised prices multiple times.
You are correct I have been dooming the economy for quite some time. Not exactly sure what your point is, I think there are lot smarter people than me that have voiced concerns as well.
I will add that it was reported that top financial minds briefed the White House today over concerns going into tomorrow.
I would much rather be talking about massive amounts of money that is hanging off of trees than dooming the economy.
Memo to Goose:
The Broccoli Appetizer at Elsa’s is delicious.
Then have the Pork Chop Sandwich and ask them to make it Au Poivre.
As to Silicon Valley Bank . They did not diversify their base of business and that is what killed them.
Other banks are far more diverse .
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Skat
Yeah, they were concerned about a Boomer run on the bank. I do hope that was a joke.
What else are they concerned about? An uninformed public run on banks is it. There's not a systemic risk that I'm aware of.
And yes, everything I say should be taken literally.
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Herman
Nice tip on the pork chop sandwich recommendation. Enjoy The Players? That was one tournament I have not attended on my bucket list.
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Skat
I have no idea why they are concerned and making policy changes on a Sunday. I am sure it is nothing. Good news, President Biden will be addressing the non event tomorrow morning.
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Skat
I have no idea why they are concerned and making policy changes on a Sunday. I am sure it is nothing. Good news, President Biden will be addressing the non event tomorrow morning.
I figured
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Herman
Nice tip on the pork chop sandwich recommendation. Enjoy The Players? That was one tournament I have not attended on my bucket list.
We enjoyed The Players very much . We were lucky bough to get invited to one of The Sky Boxes on 17. Great Panormic View of 16 and 17. Followed some players on the course and then watched the leaders play 17 . That tee shot on the last day with the wind blowing is not easy.
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From 2018:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/trump-signs-bank-bill-rolling-back-some-dodd-frank-regulations.html
"The measure eases restrictions on all but the largest banks. It raises the threshold to $250 billion from $50 billion under which banks are deemed too important to the financial system to fail. Those institutions also would not have to undergo stress tests or submit so-called living wills, both safety valves designed to plan for financial disaster."
Silicon Valley Bank was about $210 billion.
(Not blaming Trump because this passed with bi-partisan support, but perhaps we were a little too hasty to lift regulations if SVB is now deemed "too big to fail.")
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Here's a take on bank bailouts by DealBook's Andrew Ross Sorkin:
Federal regulators yesterday unveiled the most sweeping backstop for the U.S. banking system since the 2008 crisis, to limit carnage from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The decision has shaken up global markets, with investors selling bank stocks and betting that the Fed would hold off on further interest rate rises.
Today’s newsletter is a special edition deep dive into what just happened. Let’s start with some takeaways from the dizzying turn of events: Too Big to Fail is as alive as ever, but now no bank is too small to fail as well.
Banking is now officially a government-backed business, if it wasn’t before. Let’s admit it: Once the government guarantees all deposits, the “business” of banking isn’t much of a business — and maybe shouldn’t be. This is likely to become the biggest debate of the coming weeks and months.
The venture capital community, a group that includes a vocal group of libertarians, was just bailed out. Yes, these investors do good by funding start-ups, but they have also long lobbied for fewer regulations and also benefited from the special treatment of carried interest. This all looks particularly egregious after some of them spent the weekend begging for government help.
But the reality is that if S.V.B. was just a small regional bank that did not have ties to loud, politically connected venture capitalists and the tech community, it might have been allowed to die — and its customers, individuals and small businesses, would have suffered. Instead, because it is Silicon Valley, it commanded attention.
We have become a country of bailouts. We did it after the Sept. 11 attacks, in the wake of the financial crisis in 2008, during the pandemic — and now we are at it again. For those that say we should have lower taxes and shouldn’t fund the government, how are these bailouts supposed to be financed? (It’s also fair to say regulators should have done a better job, but the truth is that they have been pushed to do less, not more.)
Now that regulators will likely force small banks to raise their capital requirements to a level similar to bigger banks, costs for businesses and consumers will go up in the short term. That, of course, comes on top of higher interest rates.
Regulators should have kept a closer eye on small banks. They spent too much of the past decade or so focused on the big banks, because they apparently didn’t think that small lenders posed a systemic risk. But guess what? We have now decided that regional banks are just as risky.
Some of these institutions, including S.V.B., pushed back on more regulation, arguing that this wouldn’t allow them to compete with their bigger rivals. Silicon Valley Bank wrapped itself in the flag, arguing that was supporting small start-up businesses.
Shadow banking will expand. As more and more of the banking system faces tighter regulation, the business of making loans will increasingly move down the food chain to private firms. This has been happening for years already, but the trend is now likely to accelerate.
Bank runs are even more dangerous in the age of social media. Confidence can evaporate faster than ever when misinformation can spread in a matter of minutes, and a single tweet can send customers fleeing.
The big winner: Jamie Dimon and the big banks. JPMorgan Chase’s bankers spent the week opening up new accounts as everyone fled smaller lenders in favor of its “fortress balance sheet.” Investors have complained over the years about Dimon’s focus on having enough capital and sufficient liquidity at the expense of earnings, but his approach now looks like the right one.
Big banks’ behavior this time has been shaped by the fallout from 2008. Why isn’t Dimon buying S.V.B.? He has complained about the headaches of buying Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual at the government’s behest in 2008, having spent years fighting litigation and paying fines for those firms’ bad behavior. Bank executives who were around back then remember that.
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Hey, but at least we can draw the "bailout" line at student loan relief right?
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Hey, but at least we can draw the "bailout" line at student loan relief right?
They are bailing out depositors, just not investors. Works for me, eh?
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They are bailing out depositors, just not investors. Works for me, eh?
Its better than also bailing out the investors, but its still a far cry from the invisible hand.
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no atheists in a foxhole, no libertarians in a bank run
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People can complain about his public statements (which may or not be headfakes) but Dimon shows again and again that he's one of the absolute best bankers in the world over the last 50-some years, he's a steady hand in a storm and nearly always has the right read on the market. I have a lot of respect for him.
Tangentially related, before Dimon moved to NYC, he was still based in Chicago as CEO, from his time as leading Bank One. My good friend was the newbie who was charged with getting Dimon the quarterly report before it was released. Obviously its highly sensitive, so it was physically printed out and physically taken to him in a cab. So my buddy gets to his old mansion, on the appropriately named Banks St, in Gold Coast with the manila envelope. He's 22 and wetting himself a bit, but expecting to hand off to a housekeeper or driver. Instead, Dimon answers the door in a t shirt and boxers, tells him to come in, has him sit in the kitchen and pours him a coffee and looks over it cause he wants to give him info to take back to the office. So he sits and has coffee with the new CEO of Chase for 10 min before going back to the office to be just another low on the totem pole bank drone.
He's been at Chase for almost 18 years, risen the ranks substantially, and still has nothing that even remotely compares as an experience.
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Wags, I have a family member who had a similar interaction with Dimon early in his career and your story doesn't surprise me one bit.
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Any y'all know if Mecca has jacked up their prices, hey?
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Any y'all know if Mecca has jacked up their prices, hey?
I heard they're charging per curd ever since NFTs tanked
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Do y'all think this bailout now means any risk/loss will be forever backstopped by the Fed?
Will banks increase risk-taking?
I'm guessing even if taxpayer money doesn't directly pay for any loss/deposits, we'll all still pay for it in increased FDIC fees
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jesmu
I was talking with a well versed finance guy today and he believes we have socialized risk taking. His opinion, any company that does not raise as much money as possible is missing the boat. I happen to agree, the bigger the risk, the bigger the safety net.
There is no reason for any bank or financial institution not to leverage things as much as possible.
IMO, we have lost touch with our economy functions and it is truly hard to understand how it ticks anymore.
The silver lining, imo, is that I do not believe the Fed or Federal government will ever let a financial crisis get out of hand. If you know there is backstops at every mishap, why not take the risk to crazy levels.
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jesmu
I was talking with a well versed finance guy today and he believes we have socialized risk taking. His opinion, any company that does not raise as much money as possible is missing the boat. I happen to agree, the bigger the risk, the bigger the safety net.
There is no reason for any bank or financial institution not to leverage things as much as possible.
IMO, we have lost touch with our economy functions and it is truly hard to understand how it ticks anymore.
The silver lining, imo, is that I do not believe the Fed or Federal government will ever let a financial crisis get out of hand. If you know there is backstops at every mishap, why not take the risk to crazy levels.
As in the inflation war, strategy like this seems like it will only end up hurting select groups
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Do y'all think this bailout now means any risk/loss will be forever backstopped by the Fed?
Will banks increase risk-taking?
I'm guessing even if taxpayer money doesn't directly pay for any loss/deposits, we'll all still pay for it in increased FDIC fees
Bank operators and investors have no upside in increased risk taking. The owners and investors are the ones that lost their shirts on this debacle and rightfully so.
The Fed backstopping the network effect of thousands of depositors losing their money is the rightful place for government to act. The depositors took no risk other than trusting a bank to hold their cash in a savings account.
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jesmu
I was talking with a well versed finance guy today and he believes we have socialized risk taking. His opinion, any company that does not raise as much money as possible is missing the boat. I happen to agree, the bigger the risk, the bigger the safety net.
There is no reason for any bank or financial institution not to leverage things as much as possible.
IMO, we have lost touch with our economy functions and it is truly hard to understand how it ticks anymore.
The silver lining, imo, is that I do not believe the Fed or Federal government will ever let a financial crisis get out of hand. If you know there is backstops at every mishap, why not take the risk to crazy levels.
Why should a bank even bother with risk management if they know they will be bailed out?
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Why should a bank even bother with risk management if they know they will be bailed out?
They all just lost their jobs and their equity is worth $0?
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The Wall Street Journal opinion page has figured out who's to blame for this mess.
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I bet they have.
Let me guess. It’s NOT the rich, greedy bank execs.
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Bank operators and investors have no upside in increased risk taking. The owners and investors are the ones that lost their shirts on this debacle and rightfully so.
The Fed backstopping the network effect of thousands of depositors losing their money is the rightful place for government to act. The depositors took no risk other than trusting a bank to hold their cash in a savings account.
Its really weird some of the uninformed takes Ive seen. People calling the guaranteeing of deposits "a bank bailout" is not correct. And also saying this "AGAIN only benefits the rich" is another argument completely not understanding whats going on.
I agree, F SVB and its execs and their risk mismanagement. But if you're crowing that the startup that kept its funds at SVB and now would theoretically lose it all should also be screwed, you're just a bitter idiot. A healthy company can't make payroll because the bank they deposited their funds at lost their money...yea, screw them!
Also, this mentality that "tech startup" means everyone involved is a Silicon Valley multi-millionaire/billionaire is a joke.
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Its really weird some of the uninformed takes Ive seen. People calling the guaranteeing of deposits "a bank bailout" is not correct. And also saying this "AGAIN only benefits the rich" is another argument completely not understanding whats going on.
I agree, F SVB and its execs and their risk mismanagement. But if you're crowing that the startup that kept its funds at SVB and now would theoretically lose it all should also be screwed, you're just a bitter idiot. A healthy company can't make payroll because the bank they deposited their funds at lost their money...yea, screw them!
Also, this mentality that "tech startup" means everyone involved is a Silicon Valley multi-millionaire/billionaire is a joke.
Wasn't the primary reason this bank collapsed is simply because they had all their "eggs in one basket" and that's it? Why does everyone try to complicate it.
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Its really weird some of the uninformed takes Ive seen. People calling the guaranteeing of deposits "a bank bailout" is not correct. And also saying this "AGAIN only benefits the rich" is another argument completely not understanding whats going on.
I agree, F SVB and its execs and their risk mismanagement. But if you're crowing that the startup that kept its funds at SVB and now would theoretically lose it all should also be screwed, you're just a bitter idiot. A healthy company can't make payroll because the bank they deposited their funds at lost their money...yea, screw them!
Also, this mentality that "tech startup" means everyone involved is a Silicon Valley multi-millionaire/billionaire is a joke.
No matter what happens I think someone is going to wave the moral hazard flag. I think Ken Griffen is picking up this round.
There were a lot of absolutists in 07/08 and after the first domino went a lot of people became acutely aware that contagion is what you are trying to prevent.
I hope we learn our lesson (again) about how this was able to happen.
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Wags
Bailout or no bailout is not my issue on the topic. I agree that the startups had to be protected and happy that it happened. My issue is we continue to see new risks being created and there is not much accountability out there. Guys that take big risks with other people's money do so while being paid crazy amounts of amount. Sure, they lose their jobs but after getting paid millions of dollars along the way.
It is a catch-22 because the startups should not be hurt because of the actions of SVB, but to do so the rules need to be modified yet again. The finance guys are amongst the smartest of the smart out there and they always find ways to double down on risk. As a rule, I admire that, but I admire it more when someone does not have a safety net. Worse to me, they did not have a safety net and one was provided, and they likely knew that would be the case.
IMO, reality has been lost in our how economy works, dating back to the financial crisis. At some point in time the Fed and Treasury needs to be ahead of the curve and not reacting after the fact. Unfortunately, they could never pay the smartest people to stay ahead of the curve and we will continue to see these types of events.
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It is a catch-22 because the startups should not be hurt because of the actions of SVB, but to do so the rules need to be modified yet again.
Or maybe our govt and private sector shouldn’t have modified the rules that were in place. Changing the regulations and then seeing banks go right up to that new limit is concerning.
This isn’t a partisan comment either. Multiple people involved in rolling it back.
At least the people that took this risk will lose in this case.
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Wags
Bailout or no bailout is not my issue on the topic. I agree that the startups had to be protected and happy that it happened. My issue is we continue to see new risks being created and there is not much accountability out there. Guys that take big risks with other people's money do so while being paid crazy amounts of amount. Sure, they lose their jobs but after getting paid millions of dollars along the way.
It is a catch-22 because the startups should not be hurt because of the actions of SVB, but to do so the rules need to be modified yet again. The finance guys are amongst the smartest of the smart out there and they always find ways to double down on risk. As a rule, I admire that, but I admire it more when someone does not have a safety net. Worse to me, they did not have a safety net and one was provided, and they likely knew that would be the case.
IMO, reality has been lost in our how economy works, dating back to the financial crisis. At some point in time the Fed and Treasury needs to be ahead of the curve and not reacting after the fact. Unfortunately, they could never pay the smartest people to stay ahead of the curve and we will continue to see these types of events.
This
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Wags
Bailout or no bailout is not my issue on the topic. I agree that the startups had to be protected and happy that it happened. My issue is we continue to see new risks being created and there is not much accountability out there. Guys that take big risks with other people's money do so while being paid crazy amounts of amount. Sure, they lose their jobs but after getting paid millions of dollars along the way.
It is a catch-22 because the startups should not be hurt because of the actions of SVB, but to do so the rules need to be modified yet again. The finance guys are amongst the smartest of the smart out there and they always find ways to double down on risk. As a rule, I admire that, but I admire it more when someone does not have a safety net. Worse to me, they did not have a safety net and one was provided, and they likely knew that would be the case.
IMO, reality has been lost in our how economy works, dating back to the financial crisis. At some point in time the Fed and Treasury needs to be ahead of the curve and not reacting after the fact. Unfortunately, they could never pay the smartest people to stay ahead of the curve and we will continue to see these types of events.
In this case you might like the article from the current edition of Rolling Stone on the culture of fraud that became supercharged starting with the invasion of Iraq.
The Iraq War Unleashed an Age of Grift. We’re Still Living in It
This month marks the 20th anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, a giant con that heralded a thousand more
BY SPENCER ACKERMAN
Tim Sloan/AFP/Getty Images
MAR 5, 2023 9:00 AM
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/iraq-war-jim-mattis-theranos-elizabeth-holmes-1234679057/
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They all just lost their jobs and their equity is worth $0?
Yeah but as paranoid as it sounds, I don't think that is actually a sufficient deterrent. I would feel better if you saw other banks objecting to the Fed rescuing the depositors, because it would lay a marker for other banks and their clients to value conservative practices. But we're not hearing that because every other bank views this as "so but for the grace of God go I" because they know that they're willing to be just as risky to compete for customers/market share.
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SVB doubled down on risk by... checking my notes here... buying US Treasuries.
They're not risk takers, they're just idiots.
Some pretty bad takes in this thread.
Yeah but as paranoid as it sounds, I don't think that is actually a sufficient deterrent. I would feel better if you saw other banks objecting to the Fed rescuing the depositors, because it would lay a marker for other banks and their clients to value conservative practices. But we're not hearing that because every other bank views this as "so but for the grace of God go I" because they know that they're willing to be just as risky to compete for customers/market share.
That would put hundreds of thousands of people out of work because their bosses chose the wrong savings account. Hundreds of companies unable to pay their bills, putting hundreds of other companies at risk. There would be a flight from small banks to mega banks, putting hundreds of small banks out of business, compounding the effect. The outcome would be a severe and immediate depression.
Just saying that I think the network effects of your suggestion are much bigger than you'd expect
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SVB doubled down on risk by... checking my notes here... buying US Treasuries.
They're not risk takers, they're just idiots.
Some pretty bad takes in this thread.
That's a pretty narrow view of risk for such a haughty response. They bought those treasuries so that they could offer higher rates on deposits to attract more tech and VC companies as clients. They abandoned diversification in favor of trying to outcompete other banks for a specific type of client. That sounds pretty risky to me, even if it meant they got lopsided in a "safe" investment.
That would put hundreds of thousands of people out of work because their bosses chose the wrong savings account. Hundreds of companies unable to pay their bills, putting hundreds of other companies at risk. There would be a flight from small banks to mega banks, putting hundreds of small banks out of business, compounding the effect. The outcome would be a severe and immediate depression.
Just saying that I think the network effects of your suggestion are much bigger than you'd expect
Sure, I can meet you in the middle here, and rescuing depositors is probably the right call - but its a closer call for me than it is for you. At some level of individual responsibility, those depositors were chasing the rates that SVB offered on the back of the above.
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That's a pretty narrow view of risk for such a haughty response. They bought those treasuries so that they could offer higher rates on deposits to attract more tech and VC companies as clients. They abandoned diversification in favor of trying to outcompete other banks for a specific type of client. That sounds pretty risky to me, even if it meant they got lopsided in a "safe" investment.
Sure, I can meet you in the middle here, and rescuing depositors is probably the right call - but its a closer call for me than it is for you. At some level of individual responsibility, those depositors were chasing the rates that SVB offered on the back of the above.
You've never been an SVB customer I take it? Their value is/was 2 fold: White-glove service with deep startup/vc knowledge, and funds deployment while remaining liquid. Their rates are low-ish compared to the market. They were a full 0.5% below my operating account at CIBC. Full liquidity offered by both SVB and CIBC, and comparable rates for comparable balances.
Now, SVB allows(allowed) you to invest your funds in other professionally managed vehicles while they sit there (~4% rate, 0.5% expense ratio). SVB allows you to keep those funds 'fully liquid' by covering the few days it would normally take to get your money out. It's a pretty neat business model. https://www.svb.com/cash-sweep-global
They're not the most innovative bank in the world, they're just really good at catering to startups and VCs (and PE firms? idk much about that side of things).
Anyway. They didn't have higher deposit rates than most places. They were 'sort of competitive' rates. They just bought a ton of treasuries because they're dumb dumbs, not because they're risk takers imo.
Edit: I think I'm right based on personal (anecdotal) experience. I'm happy to be wrong, though. I don't know everything. Though I know that most the takes in this thread seem more like political grandstanding than anything. Some people here can't even differentiate between the market and the economy, but I'm trying to let that go.
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Its really weird some of the uninformed takes Ive seen. People calling the guaranteeing of deposits "a bank bailout" is not correct. And also saying this "AGAIN only benefits the rich" is another argument completely not understanding whats going on.
I agree, F SVB and its execs and their risk mismanagement. But if you're crowing that the startup that kept its funds at SVB and now would theoretically lose it all should also be screwed, you're just a bitter idiot. A healthy company can't make payroll because the bank they deposited their funds at lost their money...yea, screw them!
Also, this mentality that "tech startup" means everyone involved is a Silicon Valley multi-millionaire/billionaire is a joke.
Agree.
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Can anyone ELI5: big banks can now borrow "at par" instead of "market value"?
A couple more questions:
While making the depositors whole is the correct move in this situation, did the depositors themselves increase their own risk by putting so much in 1 account?
Can banks be engaging in risk by putting too much into Tbills considering changes in interest/inflation?
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Can anyone ELI5: big banks can now borrow "at par" instead of "market value"?
A couple more questions:
While making the depositors whole is the correct move in this situation, did the depositors themselves increase their own risk by putting so much in 1 account?
Bond prices fluctuate. So depending on many factors, including risk and market volatility, the price of a bond thats worth $100 at maturation might not be currently worth $100. It could be worth $90 or $105. So by now borrowing at par, they are borrowing at actual maturation (par value) of the bonds as opposed to the current market value. For the treasury bonds in question, that basically means they are not subject to fluctuation based on the potentials of Fed rate hikes/cuts.
As for the second question, I'm sure people like Burrow will disagree or the people Ive seen online who scoff at the idea that the companies did not spread their money over many banks to prevent this. But I don't think so. Thinking why not as a small business owner... (speaking generally, not specifically about those with SVB)
1) Hassle. We have 3 banks accounts. Our primary, an HSBC account in HK we use primarily for Chinese operations, and a seldom used BNP account we set up for something in Belgium years ago. Even that is a headache, even just a deposit account. We used to business bank with both Chase and a regional bank and we ended up closing Chase and consolidating for the reduction in hassle. More accounts means more paperwork, more implications at tax time, money movements (cause of course you still can't move funds within a day or two without wire fees), etc... And we're 20+ years old. Not a startup that wants convenience/ease of use to draw down on their VC money as they worry about making their business work.
2) Service. The more money you deposit with a bank, the better service you get. Whether loan rates, deposit rates, refinancing, etc... Thats the reason many smaller businesses prefer local or regional banks. Cause their $500K in cash reserve or the in and out of revenue from a business that does $1/2/5MM a year is meaningful. Whereas a big bank like Chase or Citi wouldn't care as much as those values are a rounding error to many of their corporate clients.
People tend to view this kind of stuff as they think of their personal banking. Other than loans, who cares. Hell, I used to have 5 checking accounts in my 20s. It was a convaluted way of keeping my money organized and not tempt myself. One for my student loan payments, one for my rent, one for my cash that would go to my CCs, etc... But with business, its different. There is just so much more reporting and other things that go into everything that its just not worth it.
Also placing culpability on businesses for being attracted to favorable interest rates like its rolling the dice on options or emerging markets is ridiculous. Its not like SVB was offering a 10% interest rate
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As for the second question, I'm sure people like Burrow will disagree or the people Ive seen online who scoff at the idea that the companies did not spread their money over many banks to prevent this. But I don't think so. Thinking why not as a small business owner... (speaking generally, not specifically about those with SVB)
1) Hassle.
2) Service.
Also placing culpability on businesses for being attracted to favorable interest rates like its rolling the dice on options or emerging markets is ridiculous. Its not like SVB was offering a 10% interest rate
I don't disagree. At a 30k ft level, its just not realistic for very large depositors to stay under the FDIC limit everywhere. Too much cash, too many different transactions, too much tax reporting, would require too many different accounts at too many institutions, the list goes on.
What I do disagree with is that businesses have no culpability for the banks at which they decide to go over the FDIC limits. I mentioned rates in an earlier post because I had read that elsewhere. Even if I'm wrong about that (very possible) competition among banks is very real, and there are trade-offs for the benefits huge clients get from their banks of choice. Security (probably correlative with size of the bank) is one of those benefits businesses can choose to prioritize. Sure they can forego that in favor of rates, service, whatever - but the tradeoff for that is supposed to be risk. To some degree, I think that bailing out depositors when their bank fails disincentivizes depositors from prioritizing security. Does that outweigh the network effect and equitable factors at play here? Probably not, and that's why I said bailing out depositors is probably the right call here. But its not like those depositors were randomly assigned to SVB - and its why I think the question of whether to make them whole is a complicated one.
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This
Profound
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Bond prices fluctuate. So depending on many factors, including risk and market volatility, the price of a bond thats worth $100 at maturation might not be currently worth $100. It could be worth $90 or $105. So by now borrowing at par, they are borrowing at actual maturation (par value) of the bonds as opposed to the current market value. For the treasury bonds in question, that basically means they are not subject to fluctuation based on the potentials of Fed rate hikes/cuts.
Apparently neither the Executives nor BoD understood duration risk. Or they chose to ignore it. Either way, how were these people running a bank?
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Apparently neither the Executives nor BoD understood duration risk. Or they chose to ignore it. Either way, how were these people running a bank?
Well one of their C-suite execs was the CFO at Lehman brothers right before it crashed, and their risk manager came from Deutsche Bank overseeing many things there when they were found to have lied to investors about its mortgage-backed securities.
Which highlights two things. 1) You can suck at your job at those high levels and walk right into another sweet high paying gig. 2) They apparently don't know how to do background on the people they are hiring.
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Bond prices fluctuate. So depending on many factors, including risk and market volatility, the price of a bond thats worth $100 at maturation might not be currently worth $100. It could be worth $90 or $105. So by now borrowing at par, they are borrowing at actual maturation (par value) of the bonds as opposed to the current market value. For the treasury bonds in question, that basically means they are not subject to fluctuation based on the potentials of Fed rate hikes/cuts.
As for the second question, I'm sure people like Burrow will disagree or the people Ive seen online who scoff at the idea that the companies did not spread their money over many banks to prevent this. But I don't think so. Thinking why not as a small business owner... (speaking generally, not specifically about those with SVB)
1) Hassle. We have 3 banks accounts. Our primary, an HSBC account in HK we use primarily for Chinese operations, and a seldom used BNP account we set up for something in Belgium years ago. Even that is a headache, even just a deposit account. We used to business bank with both Chase and a regional bank and we ended up closing Chase and consolidating for the reduction in hassle. More accounts means more paperwork, more implications at tax time, money movements (cause of course you still can't move funds within a day or two without wire fees), etc... And we're 20+ years old. Not a startup that wants convenience/ease of use to draw down on their VC money as they worry about making their business work.
2) Service. The more money you deposit with a bank, the better service you get. Whether loan rates, deposit rates, refinancing, etc... Thats the reason many smaller businesses prefer local or regional banks. Cause their $500K in cash reserve or the in and out of revenue from a business that does $1/2/5MM a year is meaningful. Whereas a big bank like Chase or Citi wouldn't care as much as those values are a rounding error to many of their corporate clients.
People tend to view this kind of stuff as they think of their personal banking. Other than loans, who cares. Hell, I used to have 5 checking accounts in my 20s. It was a convaluted way of keeping my money organized and not tempt myself. One for my student loan payments, one for my rent, one for my cash that would go to my CCs, etc... But with business, its different. There is just so much more reporting and other things that go into everything that its just not worth it.
Also placing culpability on businesses for being attracted to favorable interest rates like its rolling the dice on options or emerging markets is ridiculous. Its not like SVB was offering a 10% interest rate
Thanks for the explanations.
I believe this bond thing is new, right? What institution is guaranteeing those rates/money? Does any other business or person get access to the same "at par" valuation?
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Well one of their C-suite execs was the CFO at Lehman brothers right before it crashed, and their risk manager came from Deutsche Bank overseeing many things there when they were found to have lied to investors about its mortgage-backed securities.
Which highlights two things. 1) You can suck at your job at those high levels and walk right into another sweet high paying gig. 2) They apparently don't know how to do background on the people they are hiring.
So they fall into the "chose to ignore it" bucket.
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Skatastrophy
I am guessing you may be pointing at me on the political part of this discussion, and I can assure you my comments are 100% economic in nature. I think we have been living an historic time in history in terms of our economy in many ways. In addition, you will never find anyone that believes more that the market and the economy are two very different things. For the record, I am not a fan of any politician at the moment and think both sides have screwed things up.
Every post I have been on the SVB topic is more looking for intelligent conversation and not convince anyone of anything. IMO, SVB is likely the sucker at the poker at the table in this mess and many more regional, or bigger banks, are scrambling around to save their ass. They left SVB be the guy to take the fall and see what happens.
I think you have brought very good insight on this topic and hope others can add to this as well. I very possibly could be wrong, and hope I am, but I think this is going to turn into something bigger than just SVB.
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Skatastrophy
I am guessing you may be pointing at me on the political part of this discussion, and I can assure you my comments are 100% economic in nature. I think we have been living an historic time in history in terms of our economy in many ways. In addition, you will never find anyone that believes more that the market and the economy are two very different things. For the record, I am not a fan of any politician at the moment and think both sides have screwed things up.
Every post I have been on the SVB topic is more looking for intelligent conversation and not convince anyone of anything. IMO, SVB is likely the sucker at the poker at the table in this mess and many more regional, or bigger banks, are scrambling around to save their ass. They left SVB be the guy to take the fall and see what happens.
I think you have brought very good insight on this topic and hope others can add to this as well. I very possibly could be wrong, and hope I am, but I think this is going to turn into something bigger than just SVB.
Welcome to late stage capitalism.
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Welcome to late stage capitalism.
once again, the "experts" are under educated AND corrupt to the core. those who don't know what they don't know(narcissists) are seemingly in control. corporate america is being run by what they "feel" and trying to avoid negative social media as opposed to sound business decisions=capitalism. this equity(not equality) crap is going to be one of our downfalls. another aspect people are naive about an economy is that socialism doesn't spread anything around except depression. take note of the "rich" to "poor" ratio in say, cuba, north korea, etc? not too much of a level playing field unless you count the downtrodden and forget about the "leaders"
when there are no consequences to bad behavior...bohica
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once again, the "experts" are under educated AND corrupt to the core. those who don't know what they don't know(narcissists) are seemingly in control. corporate america is being run by what they "feel" and trying to avoid negative social media as opposed to sound business decisions=capitalism. this equity(not equality) crap is going to be one of our downfalls. another aspect people are naive about an economy is that socialism doesn't spread anything around except depression. take note of the "rich" to "poor" ratio in say, cuba, north korea, etc? not too much of a level playing field unless you count the downtrodden and forget about the "leaders"
when there are no consequences to bad behavior...bohica
Sir, this is a Wendy's
Edit: where did you get the information on the "equity crap" having anything to do with SVB?
Your post is filled with conservative headlines and cliches. It's filled with boomer cold war mentality.
If you're going to bring up "socialism" and associated countries, I noticed you forgot to mention any of the Nordic countries. How depressed are those citizens?
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once again, the "experts" are under educated AND corrupt to the core. those who don't know what they don't know(narcissists) are seemingly in control. corporate america is being run by what they "feel" and trying to avoid negative social media as opposed to sound business decisions=capitalism. this equity(not equality) crap is going to be one of our downfalls. another aspect people are naive about an economy is that socialism doesn't spread anything around except depression. take note of the "rich" to "poor" ratio in say, cuba, north korea, etc? not too much of a level playing field unless you count the downtrodden and forget about the "leaders"
when there are no consequences to bad behavior...bohica
Too woke to hedge their interest rate risk.
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Sir, this is a Wendy's
Edit: where did you get the information on the "equity crap" having anything to do with SVB?
Your post is filled with conservative headlines and cliches. It's filled with boomer cold war mentality.
If you're going to bring up "socialism" and associated countries, I noticed you forgot to mention any of the Nordic countries. How depressed are those citizens?
disprove any of it and show me where i'm wrong. have you run a business? if i fail in mine, there is no one running to bail me out except myself.
the nordic countries? with the exception of norway, the nordic models are a mix with quite a bit of privately owned business. i'm not sure about you, but i don't want to be norway.
btw, these aren't "talking points" cliches nor "headlines" these are facts about not just why these banks failed, but why it may continue to occur throughout our economy in other business models as well. businesses have to work, some will succeed and some will fail. the faults of the failures should lie with the people who are running them just as the success stories the same
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once again, the "experts" are under educated AND corrupt to the core. those who don't know what they don't know(narcissists) are seemingly in control. corporate america is being run by what they "feel" and trying to avoid negative social media as opposed to sound business decisions=capitalism. this equity(not equality) crap is going to be one of our downfalls. another aspect people are naive about an economy is that socialism doesn't spread anything around except depression. take note of the "rich" to "poor" ratio in say, cuba, north korea, etc? not too much of a level playing field unless you count the downtrodden and forget about the "leaders"
when there are no consequences to bad behavior...bohica
I don't understand most of what you said. But if we are talking about countries that suffer from depression, only Ukraine has a higher rate of depression than the US.
So it would seem we are doing pretty damn bad in that department.
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disprove any of it and show me where i'm wrong. have you run a business? if i fail in mine, there is no one running to bail me out except myself.
the nordic countries? with the exception of norway, the nordic models are a mix with quite a bit of privately owned business. i'm not sure about you, but i don't want to be norway.
btw, these aren't "talking points" cliches nor "headlines" these are facts about not just why these banks failed, but why it may continue to occur throughout our economy in other business models as well. businesses have to work, some will succeed and some will fail. the faults of the failures should lie with the people who are running them just as the success stories the same
Jesmu learns economics and finance from YouTube. Giver her a break.
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Skatastrophy
I am guessing you may be pointing at me on the political part of this discussion, and I can assure you my comments are 100% economic in nature. I think we have been living an historic time in history in terms of our economy in many ways. In addition, you will never find anyone that believes more that the market and the economy are two very different things. For the record, I am not a fan of any politician at the moment and think both sides have screwed things up.
Every post I have been on the SVB topic is more looking for intelligent conversation and not convince anyone of anything. IMO, SVB is likely the sucker at the poker at the table in this mess and many more regional, or bigger banks, are scrambling around to save their ass. They left SVB be the guy to take the fall and see what happens.
I think you have brought very good insight on this topic and hope others can add to this as well. I very possibly could be wrong, and hope I am, but I think this is going to turn into something bigger than just SVB.
Not at all. You've just talked a lot about the economy in a thread about investing, and I've been trying to let it go. I think most of the economic discussion is moot wrt how the market reacts to SVB fallout. I'm not mad I just tend to get snippy.
Next should be the Credit Suisse debacle. Stay tuned for that one, they're a big boy
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Skatastrophy
You are correct that I have talked the economy a great deal in an investing thread. I guess that is because I do not believe that the stock market has been a reflection of the economy in some ways. Free money from the Fed altered our economy in a way I have never seen before and quite possibly covered up a lot of cracks in the economy. Truth be told, I have zero idea on how the economy works anymore and even less on where to invest money today.
Feel free to highlight "I have zero idea" and agree that I do not any idea.
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Yeah I think you're parrotingb stuff that has nothing to do with SVB at all and failing to draw a line between the two things. Can't help how you feel, though.
Regarding Credit Suisse - I bet they get sold in pieces to global banks before they fail. And I think that needs to happen in the next week. (This is a wild ass guess on my part, Goose and I are both caught up in our feelings now lol)
UBS offer to acquire Credit Suisse. 6 week consultation period may be moot, they requested the deal get fast tracked.
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once again, the "experts" are under educated AND corrupt to the core. those who don't know what they don't know(narcissists) are seemingly in control. corporate america is being run by what they "feel" and trying to avoid negative social media as opposed to sound business decisions=capitalism. this equity(not equality) crap is going to be one of our downfalls. another aspect people are naive about an economy is that socialism doesn't spread anything around except depression. take note of the "rich" to "poor" ratio in say, cuba, north korea, etc? not too much of a level playing field unless you count the downtrodden and forget about the "leaders"
when there are no consequences to bad behavior...bohica
Dumb as a rock
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Jesmu learns economics and finance from YouTube. Giver her a break.
And rocket just spews random shiiet. Why you dick ride so hard?
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Dumb as a rock
Not fair to rocks
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$54B loan capital influx for Credit Suisse
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I agree with rocket that much of corporate America is run by narcissists, all of them well educated, but not all equal in intellect. I do think that many top executives in corporate America (very, very big companies) have lost touch with reality and know the worst thing that can happen is getting fired from a mega paying job, only to resurface down the road.
I have no doubt they are afraid of social media or bad press, but not agree that is why they do not always make sound business decisions. IMO, many companies or banks ignore the elephant in the room and hope it is never discussed. These guys are not stupid, yet they sure seem to feel they can survive any decision they make regardless of outcome.
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I don't understand most of what you said. But if we are talking about countries that suffer from depression, only Ukraine has a higher rate of depression than the US.
So it would seem we are doing pretty damn bad in that department.
it's not that difficult forget, but the highlighted part of your question re: depression, i mean the people are depressed in numerous ways-emotionally and in potential to succeed. opportunity if you will.
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And rocket just spews random shiiet. Why you dick ride so hard?
good thing you don't run any companies/businesses if you do, just another example of crash and burn
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good thing you don't run any companies/businesses if you do, just another example of crash and burn
I'm pretty sure he does tho...
I don't agree with Hards on a lot, but making incorrect claims or trying to knock his situational intelligence instead of his points is a bad look, my man.
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Jesmu learns economics and finance from YouTube. Giver her a break.
This conversation got infinitely dumber when someone joined in - and that someone wasn't Jesmu.
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This conversation got infinitely dumber when someone joined in - and that someone wasn't Jesmu.
Yup, ole ZFB single handedly made scoop dumb.
You've been attacking me a lot lately. Stalker.
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This conversation got infinitely dumber when someone joined in - and that someone wasn't Jesmu.
classic come back when ya don't like the message...or the messenger. you forgot the racist phobe stuff too
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I'm pretty sure he does tho...
I don't agree with Hards on a lot, but making incorrect claims or trying to knock his situational intelligence instead of his points is a bad look, my man.
i didn't really knock his points until he personally attacked me. i don't necessarily disagree with his "late stage capitalism" claim however
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Yup, ole ZFB single handedly made scoop dumb.
You've been attacking me a lot lately. Stalker.
Haha didn't mean you. I meant our resident DVR'd episode of Tucker Carlson Tonight come to life. I honestly don't recall attacking or even responding directly to you in any other thread, but sorry if you feel singled out by me.
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Funny how the only people that talk about tucker Carlson on this board are lefties.
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Funny how the only people that talk about tucker Carlson on this board are lefties.
Meh, I don't really care how anyone spends their time or what they watch, but "there aren't enough smart blacks and gays to populate bank boards responsibly" is a step too far to me.
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Skatastrophy
You are correct that I have talked the economy a great deal in an investing thread. I guess that is because I do not believe that the stock market has been a reflection of the economy in some ways. Free money from the Fed altered our economy in a way I have never seen before and quite possibly covered up a lot of cracks in the economy. Truth be told, I have zero idea on how the economy works anymore and even less on where to invest money today.
Feel free to highlight "I have zero idea" and agree that I do not any idea.
I don’t disagree with you a lot on this subject other than blaming ‘free money’.
Greed by the people who already have everything - which is the #1 cause of this failure - is much more serious of a problem.
It is not the middle or lower class that caused this failure.
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Meh, I don't really care how anyone spends their time or what they watch, but "there aren't enough smart blacks and gays to populate bank boards responsibly" is a step too far to me.
Who said that? Tucker?
Thanks for proving my point.
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Jockey
It was not just the wealthy that were greedy or used poor judgement. 15% of American's that have car payments are paying over $1k a month. Those folks took advantage of loose lending and many likely overextended. The amount of money on excess spent by lower or middle America has come from cheap, easy money. We have been brainwashed into being a consumer before anything else and it has become an addiction.
I would argue that lower and middle class America is a big part of the issue. 1% folks always find a way to make money and that makes the world go round. This time the masses fueled the issue by crazy spending, imo. Plus, I believe cheap money kept an awful lot of people employed over the past decade and I still believe we will see middle/upper white collar jobs getting hammered if things go badly.
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Who said that? Tucker?
Thanks for proving my point.
I don't know what Tucker said. I used Tucker was a stand-in for the anti-woke echo chamber generally. If you want to accuse me of being obsessed with you, or Tucker, or whoever else to distract from the fact that rocket is espousing an undefensible position and that you don't like him being called out for that - fine, you can have that W.
Edit just to add that I don't like the idea of being a guy who is obsessed with or targets anyone else, so I looked back through my posts. I haven't quoted you in a response since Dec 9 and that was a friendly discussion about whether we'd be rooting for Morocco in the WC. Before that we're back to October and that was very tame too. So I'm not really sure what you're talking about.
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I don't know what Tucker said. I used Tucker was a stand-in for the anti-woke echo chamber generally. If you want to accuse me of being obsessed with you, or Tucker, or whoever else to distract from the fact that rocket is espousing an undefensible position and that you don't like him being called out for that - fine, you can have that W.
Edit just to add that I don't like the idea of being a guy who is obsessed with or targets anyone else, so I looked back through my posts. I haven't quoted you in a response since Dec 9 and that was a friendly discussion about whether we'd be rooting for Morocco in the WC. Before that we're back to October and that was very tame too. So I'm not really sure what you're talking about.
Alright, fair. I thought you were taking shots at me. My error.
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Who said that? Tucker?
Thanks for proving my point.
The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/03/wall-street-journal-column-silicon-valley-bank
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Alright, fair. I thought you were taking shots at me. My error.
All good - and I'm sorry I came in so hot.
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The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/03/wall-street-journal-column-silicon-valley-bank
Who owns the WSJ again?
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Is the Investing thread really not going to discuss bank failures?
I go out of town for 4 days and this place in in shambles. :-\
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Is the Investing thread really not going to discuss bank failures?
I go out of town for 4 days and this place in in shambles. :-\
Credit Suisse got acquired (or is getting acquired) for pennies on the dollar.
First Republic will probably go through the same thing (my feeling, no inside info)
I think this turns into more consolidation in the coming months.
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Is the Investing thread really not going to discuss bank failures?
I go out of town for 4 days and this place in in shambles. :-\
Everything is backstopped now. There is no failure
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Almost everyone is completely missing the downfall of SVB. It wasn't a credit issue at all. It was a cash management issue.
For those of you intrigued, SVB will turn out to be one of the most colossal regulatory failures this side of Bernie Madoff. The reason is the FDIC, State of California and the Federal Reserve failed to control risk and fast growth at SVB. That bank went from asses of $70.1 billion in 2019 to $211.4 billion at December 31, 2022. No bank can increase its size threefold in three years (absent a merger of equals) without taking excessive risk. If you don't believe me, examine the origins of the savings institution crisis in the early 1980s.
What happened was SVB, to bolster its earnings, took risk by betting that interest rates would not rise. That took the form of a large purchase of 10 year bonds. The bonds were backed by uninsured deposits, much of which was considered core. Core means that those deposits are less sensitive to market interest rates and will stay with a bank indefinitely. In effect, SVB was treating their deposit base the way a bank would treat your checking account -- it's going nowhere because you value things other than the highest rate. There are systems, measurements and analytics in place that measure interest rate risk and simulate the impact of rising interest rates on economic value of a bank's equity and on its net interest income. I'm wondering what SVB's systems said.
None of this is criminal. It's stupid! The regulators should and could have said, STOP!!!!! They have what's called a "Matter Requiring Attention" or "Matter Requiring Immediate Attention", which are orders to Management and a Board to change a business strategy. They also have Cease and Desist Orders ("C&Ds") that require a Management to stop an abusive action or "else." "Else" is a Civil Money Penalty leveled against Management and the Board of Directors.
So, Management was stupid for failing to understand the risk they were taking and regulators were idiots for not stopping it. The markets are paying for it. The deposit insurance fund is paying for it and the American public is paying for it in a perception of lost confidence in the financial system.
Oh, and most of the media covering it still hasn't figured out what's really happening! Or that they're part of the cause!
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My understanding is that they knew the risk, but like the profits.
And even discussed this.
Also, they considered each company with deposits as a separate entity. But it turned out all these different companies were funded by a few VC companies, So once they went looking for liquidity, it was a huge run, which would’ve been slower, if in fact, it was many unrelated companies. Instead, VC’s told all there companies to pull their funds.
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My understanding is that they knew the risk, but like the profits.
And even discussed this.
Also, they considered each company with deposits as a separate entity. But it turned out all these different companies were funded by a few VC companies, So once they went looking for liquidity, it was a huge run, which would’ve been slower, if in fact, it was many unrelated companies. Instead, VC’s told all there companies to pull their funds.
Exactly.
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Is there any evidence that the VC folks who made, or encouraged, the run discussed the run beforehand on social or private communication?
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Is there any evidence that the VC folks who made, or encouraged, the run discussed the run beforehand on social or private communication?
That is what has been reported, but I haven't seen the receipts...
But who would keep that sort of info around.
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Is there any evidence that the VC folks who made, or encouraged, the run discussed the run beforehand on social or private communication?
If the VC folks actually did this and incited a run, they committed a federal crime.
I suspect it is covered by 18 U.S. Code § 1344
If it was an email, text or another social media platform, the feds will find it and well, it won't be pretty.
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That is what has been reported, but I haven't seen the receipts...
But who would keep that sort of info around.
Does this count as receipts?
Venture capitalists and business owners described the early stages of the Silicon Valley run being led by private message boards or Slack channels, where entrepreneurs were encouraged to withdraw their funds.
Silicon Valley Bank also was unique in being almost entirely exposed to one community — the tech industry, venture capital and startups. When this close-knit community of depositors talked to one another — using digital channels to do so quickly — the bank likely became more vulnerable to rumors and a run.
https://apnews.com/article/silicon-valley-bank-bank-run-twitter-fdic-fdbfc08ed00fcbdb9d83897b1b9f42ae
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If the VC folks actually did this and incited a run, they committed a federal crime.
I suspect it is covered by 18 U.S. Code § 1344
If it was an email, text or another social media platform, the feds will find it and well, it won't be pretty.
Excuse my ignorance, but what about private discusssions fearing a run and encouraging withdrawals constitutes fraud or false representations?
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Does this count as receipts?
https://apnews.com/article/silicon-valley-bank-bank-run-twitter-fdic-fdbfc08ed00fcbdb9d83897b1b9f42ae
That's the same article I read... I just need the screenshots. ;)
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Almost everyone is completely missing the downfall of SVB. It wasn't a credit issue at all. It was a cash management issue.
For those of you intrigued, SVB will turn out to be one of the most colossal regulatory failures this side of Bernie Madoff. The reason is the FDIC, State of California and the Federal Reserve failed to control risk and fast growth at SVB. That bank went from asses of $70.1 billion in 2019 to $211.4 billion at December 31, 2022. No bank can increase its size threefold in three years (absent a merger of equals) without taking excessive risk. If you don't believe me, examine the origins of the savings institution crisis in the early 1980s.
What happened was SVB, to bolster its earnings, took risk by betting that interest rates would not rise. That took the form of a large purchase of 10 year bonds. The bonds were backed by uninsured deposits, much of which was considered core. Core means that those deposits are less sensitive to market interest rates and will stay with a bank indefinitely. In effect, SVB was treating their deposit base the way a bank would treat your checking account -- it's going nowhere because you value things other than the highest rate. There are systems, measurements and analytics in place that measure interest rate risk and simulate the impact of rising interest rates on economic value of a bank's equity and on its net interest income. I'm wondering what SVB's systems said.
None of this is criminal. It's stupid! The regulators should and could have said, STOP!!!!! They have what's called a "Matter Requiring Attention" or "Matter Requiring Immediate Attention", which are orders to Management and a Board to change a business strategy. They also have Cease and Desist Orders ("C&Ds") that require a Management to stop an abusive action or "else." "Else" is a Civil Money Penalty leveled against Management and the Board of Directors.
So, Management was stupid for failing to understand the risk they were taking and regulators were idiots for not stopping it. The markets are paying for it. The deposit insurance fund is paying for it and the American public is paying for it in a perception of lost confidence in the financial system.
Oh, and most of the media covering it still hasn't figured out what's really happening! Or that they're part of the cause!
They did.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/federal-reserve-sounded-alarm-silicon-valley-banks-risk-management-2019-report
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They did.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/federal-reserve-sounded-alarm-silicon-valley-banks-risk-management-2019-report
Ok, first time I’ve seen this. However, if so and if it was done a couple years ago, why was the issue not elevated?
Why were their primary regulators not pushing he matter harder and expecting short-term answers?
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Accenture (ACN) announced earnings today. Beat on top and bottom lines for the quarter but much of its guidance was lower than both its earlier projections and analyst estimates.
Meh guidance has been a killer this earnings season but ACN actually is up 7%+ as I write this because the company announced plans to lay off 19K employees in a cost-cutting effort, and Mr. Market LOVES layoffs!
The other big earnings report today was from General Mills (GIS). After a few years of struggles, the company has executed well, and the stock is up about 30% in the last year. It's up 3.6% today.
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From the WSJ's "The Numbers":
191,000
Last week’s seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs. That’s down 1,000, the Labor Department said. The data shows that the broader labor market remains robust despite large companies announcing layoffs.
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From the WSJ's "The Numbers":
191,000
Last week’s seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs. That’s down 1,000, the Labor Department said. The data shows that the broader labor market remains robust despite large companies announcing layoffs.
A lot of these “Layoffs” are companies not replacing normal employe retirements and other attrition . Many businesses are short employees. That is what we are seeing.
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It took Musk only 5 months to turn a company he valued at $44B into one he values at $20B. That's not easy!
From the NYT's DealBook:
Twitter employees were hit by two bits of tough news over the weekend — and only one was foreseeable. Both, however, underline the daunting challenges facing the social network under its owner of five months, Elon Musk.
The company is now valued at about $20 billion, Musk told employees in an internal memo announcing a new stock compensation program. That’s less than half of the $44 billion that he paid for it in October, and reflects problems Twitter has faced since he took over, including a steep drop in revenue as advertisers recoiled from the chaos that followed Musk’s takeover.
(The $20 billion figure emerges just months after news reports said that Musk had sought to raise new funds … at the $44 billion valuation.)
Even as Musk asserted again that Twitter’s financial health remained precarious, he also pitched the company’s low valuation as an opportunity. The fewer than 2,000 employees who remain will receive shares in X Corporation, Twitter’s current parent company, at the $20 billion valuation. In his email, Musk wrote that he believed Twitter could eventually be worth some $250 billion — or more than four times what the company has ever been valued at.
But part of Twitter’s source code has leaked online, via an anonymous poster on the online code repository GitHub. (The account’s name is “FreeSpeechEnthusiast,” an apparent riff on Musk’s declaring himself a “free speech absolutist.”)
Twitter sent a copyright infringement notice to GitHub, which has since taken down the code, and asked a California federal court to order the platform to reveal who was behind the account. Already, the social network’s executives suspect that one of the more than 5,000 employees who have been laid off or resigned since October was behind the post.
The leak could give Twitter’s rivals a leg up or, perhaps more worryingly, reveal security vulnerabilities. That said, Musk has promised to make public some of the company’s code — specifically the algorithms that power content recommendations to users — this week.
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Gee, I wonder why he would do that.
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A lot of these “Layoffs” are companies not replacing normal employe retirements and other attrition . Many businesses are short employees. That is what we are seeing.
I'm seeing multiple layoffs. First trimming fat, then cutting muscle. Capital markets are messed up for early stage growth companies, though.
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This is not a political post, but this power move by Iger/Disney is something else. The King Charles III clause (to circumvent perpetuity claims), doing all this maneuvering legally and on public record with no one seemingly noticing…it’s pretty interesting.
https://twitter.com/deforestnews6/status/1641158253319974914?s=46&t=oK1MEkwGjSu5db4jVYWqDw
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This is not a political post, but this power move by Iger/Disney is something else. The King Charles III clause (to circumvent perpetuity claims), doing all this maneuvering legally and on public record with no one seemingly noticing…it’s pretty interesting.
https://twitter.com/deforestnews6/status/1641158253319974914?s=46&t=oK1MEkwGjSu5db4jVYWqDw
I don't know why he thought poking the bear that supports his entire economy was going to be a good idea.
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As a non-Floridian who likes dramedies, this is kind of fun.
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This is not a political post, but this power move by Iger/Disney is something else. The King Charles III clause (to circumvent perpetuity claims), doing all this maneuvering legally and on public record with no one seemingly noticing…it’s pretty interesting.
https://twitter.com/deforestnews6/status/1641158253319974914?s=46&t=oK1MEkwGjSu5db4jVYWqDw
Man, he’s on The Scott Walker rocket sled to remember him
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fsay2GpWwAI16A8?format=jpg&name=large)
LOL
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I don't know why he thought poking the bear that supports his entire economy was going to be a good idea.
"This essentially makes Disney the government"...well yea. The Orlando Metro has grown 8x since Disney arrived. Kissimmee went from a ranching and orange packing town of 7,000 people into a city of 75,000 to support Disney and its affiliates. Disney is the gorilla in the room.
I'm not some rabid DeSantis hater and I don't necessarily think Disney is beyond reproach, but that is such a bizarre fight to pick. Especially since beyond just the impact and influence...Iger is a REALLY good CEO and an incredibly calculating and shrewd executive.
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"This essentially makes Disney the government"...well yea. The Orlando Metro has grown 8x since Disney arrived. Kissimmee went from a ranching and orange packing town of 7,000 people into a city of 75,000 to support Disney and its affiliates. Disney is the gorilla in the room.
I'm not some rabid DeSantis hater and I don't necessarily think Disney is beyond reproach, but that is such a bizarre fight to pick. Especially since beyond just the impact and influence...Iger is a REALLY good CEO and an incredibly calculating and shrewd executive.
Yup, it was just a silly fight to pick. Personally, I don't disagree that Disney probably has too much power and autonomy in the region, but rushing in without a plan and creating this mess because of a culture war is a major political misstep for DeSantis.
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disney is far different from what it once was. wally is thrashing in his grave. i doubt orlando and kissimmee would see the same type of growth now if disney is as such. it doesn't have the same appeal to mainstream america plus it's EXPENSIVE as hell
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disney is far different from what it once was. wally is thrashing in his grave. i doubt orlando and kissimmee would see the same type of growth now if disney is as such. it doesn't have the same appeal to mainstream america plus it's EXPENSIVE as hell
And don’t forget how woke it is. They put pants on Donald Duck
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disney is far different from what it once was. wally is thrashing in his grave. i doubt orlando and kissimmee would see the same type of growth now if disney is as such. it doesn't have the same appeal to mainstream america plus it's EXPENSIVE as hell
You're right. It is probably a bigger name, with more renown, and likely even more beloved. Which is why it is expensive as hell, because people will pay it.
Extremely bizarre fight to pick with Disney. And Disney played them for fools.
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Disney parks have (or at least had) a sort of slogan that "the American Dream is to own a home, own a car, and go to Disney. Our job is to make everyone want to do the last thing at least twice." And, by and large, they are fairly successful at it.
People spend consciense-shocking amounts of money at Disney and I shudder at the moment we have to take the family because it's so expensive I just know I'll personally be hung up on how I'm getting taken to the cleaners. Here's hoping the magic with little kids will outweigh it.
Anyway, on the subject of picking a fight with Disney, it's the weirdest fight imaginable so long as you're not appealing to the narrowest band of high-engagement primary voters. Since he's gotta knock 45 off that territory to have a shot in the primary I guess it makes sense, but he's setting himself up to need a HARD pivot in the general.
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Disney is a unnatural carnal knowledgeing behemoth that appeals to every strata of society.
Any human with a scintilla of brainpower recognizes that.
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disney is far different from what it once was. wally is thrashing in his grave. i doubt orlando and kissimmee would see the same type of growth now if disney is as such. it doesn't have the same appeal to mainstream america plus it's EXPENSIVE as hell
Disney is the state's number one tourism draw and its largest employer.
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I
HAnyway, on the subject of picking a fight with Disney, it's the weirdest fight imaginable so long as you're not appealing to the narrowest band of high-engagement primary voters. Since he's gotta knock 45 off that territory to have a shot in the primary I guess it makes sense, but he's setting himself up to need a HARD pivot in the general.
His fight with Disney preceded his re-election. He won (in a swing state) by more than 1.5 million votes. Put in perspective, that’s approximately double the combined margin of victory by the governors of Illinois and New York (two totally blue states of comparable size). I don’t think it will be a particularly big deal.
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His fight with Disney preceded his re-election. He won (in a swing state) by more than 1.5 million votes. Put in perspective, that’s approximately double the combined margin of victory by the governors of Illinois and New York (two totally blue states of comparable size). I don’t think it will be a particularly big deal.
Florida isn't a swing state. It hasn't had a Democratic governor since 1998. Hasn't had a Democratic majority legislature since 1994. Hasn't had a Democratic attorney general since 2002. Hasn't had a Democratic secretary of state since 1987. A Democratic presidential candidate has won Florida just three times since 1980.
It's as much a swing state as Illinois.
Don't take it from me. Listen to those libtards over at the National Review.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/11/florida-is-a-red-state-now/
Regardless, none of this changes the fact that Disney made a fool of him.
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Lets uh...drop the politics and get back to investing...
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TSLA getting hammered today after a disappointing earnings report, as repeated price cuts are affecting profits.
Musk also has decided to pick a Twitter-related fight (he almost surely can't win) with Microsoft. The Twitter distraction continues to hurt the companies he actually wants to own.
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Rough day for Elon.
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Rough day for Elon.
Well, he's painting the explosion of his SpaceX rocket right just minutes after launch as a rousing success.
"Congrats SpaceX team on an exciting test launch of Starship!" Musk tweeted. "Learned a lot for next test launch in a few months."
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3958267-elon-musks-spacex-starship-rocket-explodes-minutes-after-launch
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Well, he's painting the explosion of his SpaceX rocket right just minutes after launch as a rousing success.
"Congrats SpaceX team on an exciting test launch of Starship!" Musk tweeted. "Learned a lot for next test launch in a few months."
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3958267-elon-musks-spacex-starship-rocket-explodes-minutes-after-launch
Technically, he’s correct. Expectations on these launches, especially in their infancy at this capacity, should be quite low. He said 50/50 but I bet his engineers thoughts were much lower. He has plenty of government cheese to burn through
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Well, he's painting the explosion of his SpaceX rocket right just minutes after launch as a rousing success.
"Congrats SpaceX team on an exciting test launch of Starship!" Musk tweeted. "Learned a lot for next test launch in a few months."
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3958267-elon-musks-spacex-starship-rocket-explodes-minutes-after-launch
I get that you don't like him, but it was unquestionably a successful launch.
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I get that you don't like him, but it was unquestionably a successful launch.
It definitely wasn't a complete failure, but neither was it a unquestionable success. There were a list of objectives, some of which were achieved, some of which were not.
Even the SpaceX twitter account made a joke about how it didn't go as planned.
@SpaceX
As if the flight test was not exciting enough, Starship experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly before stage separation
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It definitely wasn't a complete failure, but neither was it a unquestionable success. There were a list of objectives, some of which were achieved, some of which were not.
Even the SpaceX twitter account made a joke about how it didn't go as planned.
@SpaceX
As if the flight test was not exciting enough, Starship experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly before stage separation
It was the first time that bad boy was every launched and it didn't blow up on the platform.
I'm guessing that they were *hoping* for a perfect launch, but not everything has to go perfectly to consider a launch a success.
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It was the first time that bad boy was every launched and it didn't blow up on the platform.
I'm guessing that they were *hoping* for a perfect launch, but not everything has to go perfectly to consider a launch a success.
Agreed. Just go watch footage of early NASA launches.
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I get that you don't like him, but it was unquestionably a successful launch.
I actually think Musk is a visionary but I think he's let his vision get blurred. And as a TSLA investor -- which is what this thread is supposed to be about -- I don't like that.
Obviously, I'm not a rocket scientist. If that launch was a success, OK, I defer to you and others who say it was.
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Ok ok enough from you amateur newbies…wouldja all said the same at kitty hawk back in 1903?
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It was the first time that bad boy was every launched and it didn't blow up on the platform.
I'm guessing that they were *hoping* for a perfect launch, but not everything has to go perfectly to consider a launch a success.
A lot of Musk haters on Twitter became rocket experts this week
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A lot of Musk haters on Twitter became rocket experts this week
Which is funny because from what I understand he is barely involved at Space X. Of course he has a lot of his money invested, but he doesn't manage it in the way he does his other companies. He's much more involved at Tesla... and obviously Twitter.
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ya had to love how they described the success/failure of the space x launch however-
"a rapid unscheduled disassembly"
probably could use that for a lot of things
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A lot of Musk haters on Twitter became rocket experts this week
Same for the fanboys.
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After numerous price cuts, including earlier this week, now Musk is raising prices on a couple models (S and X). Oy, my head hurts.
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ya had to love how they described the success/failure of the space x launch however-
"a rapid unscheduled disassembly"
probably could use that for a lot of things
Yeah that was a clever turn of phrase.
Happy for the successful SpaceX launch yesterday. American industry doing well is good for America, hopefully SpaceX continues to dominate in their field.
Also, Musk is a nutter and his companies would be doing better under different leadership. I hesitate to invest with him, he can't seem to keep his emotions in check. That's not what I look for in a leadership team.
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Also, Musk is a nutter and his companies would be doing better under different leadership. I hesitate to invest with him, he can't seem to keep his emotions in check. That's not what I look for in a leadership team.
Like many visionaries, he's extremely eccentric, but I totally agree with you.
I do own some TSLA and I have considered buying this post-earnings dip, but I'm hesitant because we just don't know what kind of silliness is around the corner. I try to remove emotion from my investing; it would be great for TSLA shareholders if Musk could remove -- or at least tamp down -- emotions from his managing.
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Yeah that was a clever turn of phrase.
Happy for the successful SpaceX launch yesterday. American industry doing well is good for America, hopefully SpaceX continues to dominate in their field.
Also, Musk is a nutter and his companies would be doing better under different leadership. I hesitate to invest with him, he can't seem to keep his emotions in check. That's not what I look for in a leadership team.
Catturd for CEO of Twitter!
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Catturd for CEO of Twitter!
Catturd has a blue check, that mean's they're reputable (and have $8).
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Catturd has a blue check, that mean's they're reputable (and have $8).
Or a certain someone is picking up the tab.
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Like many visionaries, he's extremely eccentric, but I totally agree with you.
He's well beyond eccentric, pushing toward Howard Hughes territory. I don't know if Hughes was a complete a-hole or not like Musk.
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He's well beyond eccentric, pushing toward Howard Hughes territory. I don't know if Hughes was a complete a-hole or not like Musk.
Hughes makes Musk look like a Teddy Bear in comparison. Ruined peoples lives who opposed him, in ways beyond just internet jabs or slander, and actually murdered multiple people. The Aviator didn’t show that part
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I actually think Musk is a visionary but I think he's let his vision get blurred. And as a TSLA investor -- which is what this thread is supposed to be about -- I don't like that.
Obviously, I'm not a rocket scientist. If that launch was a success, OK, I defer to you and others who say it was.
Visionary is too kind. Tesla was a visionary...Edison not so much. Tesla is more like Edison, and that isn't a compliment. And Musk is still no where near the inventor that Edison was, he just contains the same determination and dedication to dominating a business area.
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Visionary is too kind. Tesla was a visionary...Edison not so much. Tesla is more like Edison, and that isn't a compliment. And Musk is still no where near the inventor that Edison was, he just contains the same determination and dedication to dominating a business area.
SpaceX is visionary. TSLA's vision for battery technology is visionary. He can be an a**hat and a petty douche and still be visionary in the way he's looked at things. If you want to argue he no longer is a visionary, I wouldn't oppose you at all. But I think its a very fair label for the Musk of the late 90s into the early 2010s as such.
But then again, you're on record as thinking he's not particularly intelligent so its probably an unsellable argument.
I do find it funny, for all his faults, that detractors of Musk are so quick to downplay his achievments by saying he wasn't the one engineering it, or he was just capitalizing on the inventions of others, etc...but the same people likely fawned over the VISIONARY Steve Jobs and what genius he was when he couldn't tell you what 90% of the stuff on a circuit board was and never programmed a line of Apple code.
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SpaceX is visionary. TSLA's vision for battery technology is visionary. He can be an a**hat and a petty douche and still be visionary in the way he's looked at things. If you want to argue he no longer is a visionary, I wouldn't oppose you at all. But I think its a very fair label for the Musk of the late 90s into the early 2010s as such.
But then again, you're on record as thinking he's not particularly intelligent so its probably an unsellable argument.
I do find it funny, for all his faults, that detractors of Musk are so quick to downplay his achievments by saying he wasn't the one engineering it, or he was just capitalizing on the inventions of others, etc...but the same people likely fawned over the VISIONARY Steve Jobs and what genius he was when he couldn't tell you what 90% of the stuff on a circuit board was and never programmed a line of Apple code.
All true.
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Technically, he’s correct. Expectations on these launches, especially in their infancy at this capacity, should be quite low. He said 50/50 but I bet his engineers thoughts were much lower. He has plenty of government cheese to burn through
The launch pad explosion, bad tests and problem launches needing destruction go back to the early days of Cape Canaveral.
The old Vanguard program was a nasty, public failure that enabled the other guys to put a satellite up first.
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SpaceX is visionary. TSLA's vision for battery technology is visionary. He can be an a**hat and a petty douche and still be visionary in the way he's looked at things. If you want to argue he no longer is a visionary, I wouldn't oppose you at all. But I think its a very fair label for the Musk of the late 90s into the early 2010s as such.
But then again, you're on record as thinking he's not particularly intelligent so its probably an unsellable argument.
I do find it funny, for all his faults, that detractors of Musk are so quick to downplay his achievments by saying he wasn't the one engineering it, or he was just capitalizing on the inventions of others, etc...but the same people likely fawned over the VISIONARY Steve Jobs and what genius he was when he couldn't tell you what 90% of the stuff on a circuit board was and never programmed a line of Apple code.
There is a difference between, being a visionary oneself, and being part of a company that is visionary.
He's not very involved in SpaceX (others on here have said the same thing). Most of the technology/ideas came from others, same with the early days of Tesla (and PayPal for that matter).
That's why I compared him to Edison, Edison was great at taking others great ideas and monopolizing it into a business. What makes Musk so successful, is he is equally adept at that. My personal opinion is that isn't visionary...the people that create those great ideas (like Nikola Tesla) are visionaries. But to get those ideas to mass market they do need someone like an Edison or Musk to leverage the business side.
The above is a bit nitpicky, and is just my personal take on the phrase being "visionary."
I think it comes from me being involved on the research/discovery side, where I have known a decent number of folks that have created medical treatments that have saved countless lives, but the business folks get called the visionaries for raising capital and putting it to market (still extremely important, because a good idea that isn't scaled doesn't help anyone), and usually no one even knows the people who were actually "visionary" in their research/discoveries.
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Nm
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FRC halted.
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There is a difference between, being a visionary oneself, and being part of a company that is visionary.
He's not very involved in SpaceX (others on here have said the same thing). Most of the technology/ideas came from others, same with the early days of Tesla (and PayPal for that matter).
Your experience is similar to mine and I concur
That's why I compared him to Edison, Edison was great at taking others great ideas and monopolizing it into a business. What makes Musk so successful, is he is equally adept at that. My personal opinion is that isn't visionary...the people that create those great ideas (like Nikola Tesla) are visionaries. But to get those ideas to mass market they do need someone like an Edison or Musk to leverage the business side.
The above is a bit nitpicky, and is just my personal take on the phrase being "visionary."
I think it comes from me being involved on the research/discovery side, where I have known a decent number of folks that have created medical treatments that have saved countless lives, but the business folks get called the visionaries for raising capital and putting it to market (still extremely important, because a good idea that isn't scaled doesn't help anyone), and usually no one even knows the people who were actually "visionary" in their research/discoveries.
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Great (but sad) John Oliver this past Sunday on the crypto industry’s worst scam artists. As a bonus, he also showed some of Cramer’s “brilliant” calls over the years.
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From Seeking Alpha:
Recession talk is all the rage, but the U.S. economy managed to eke out another gain in Q1, with GDP growth expanding by an annualized rate of 1.1%. That severely missed estimates of 2.0% growth and was slower than the 2.6% growth seen in Q4, but investors were excited nonetheless. In fact, the Dow (DJI) and S&P 500 (SP500) on Thursday notched their biggest gains since January, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP.IND) scored its best winning session since March.
What's going on? Many analysts and economists had predicted that a recession would already come in Q1, and while the U.S. economy is clearly shifting into a lower gear, the latest data may suggest that it also might be able to escape one in 2023. The numbers also support the case for the Fed to begin pausing its aggressive rate hike cycle, while consumer demand is still holding strong despite lower private inventories and residential fixed investment. Robust job growth has additionally outpaced layoffs, with the unemployment rate still at multi-decade lows, suggesting that Americans might be well-positioned to deal with inflation and economic uncertainty.
Investors cheered the news yesterday, with the S&P 500 Index up 2% and Nasdaq up 2.4%.
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From Seeking Alpha:
Recession talk is all the rage, but the U.S. economy managed to eke out another gain in Q1, with GDP growth expanding by an annualized rate of 1.1%. That severely missed estimates of 2.0% growth and was slower than the 2.6% growth seen in Q4, but investors were excited nonetheless. In fact, the Dow (DJI) and S&P 500 (SP500) on Thursday notched their biggest gains since January, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP.IND) scored its best winning session since March.
What's going on? Many analysts and economists had predicted that a recession would already come in Q1, and while the U.S. economy is clearly shifting into a lower gear, the latest data may suggest that it also might be able to escape one in 2023. The numbers also support the case for the Fed to begin pausing its aggressive rate hike cycle, while consumer demand is still holding strong despite lower private inventories and residential fixed investment. Robust job growth has additionally outpaced layoffs, with the unemployment rate still at multi-decade lows, suggesting that Americans might be well-positioned to deal with inflation and economic uncertainty.
Investors cheered the news yesterday, with the S&P 500 Index up 2% and Nasdaq up 2.4%.
I was reading this today. As I've mentioned before, my company is on the bottom of the food chain in metals and in multiple market types. I'm seeing a noticeable slow down of orders in the forecast, but I'm told it's because my customers "think" there is going to be a slowdown and they are choosing to burn inventory and keep their inventory lower after burning. Also, for example, one large international customer 2 months ago had a low forecast for May, but the orders dropped in April for delivery in May are double than what was in the forecast. Feels more like everyone is waiting for a shoe to drop that isn't dropping.
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I was reading this today. As I've mentioned before, my company is on the bottom of the food chain in metals and in multiple market types. I'm seeing a noticeable slow down of orders in the forecast, but I'm told it's because my customers "think" there is going to be a slowdown and they are choosing to burn inventory and keep their inventory lower after burning. Also, for example, one large international customer 2 months ago had a low forecast for May, but the orders dropped in April for delivery in May are double than what was in the forecast. Feels more like everyone is waiting for a shoe to drop that isn't dropping.
That's real interesting, MUFiC. As an investor I'm always trying to anticipate things, but that's doubly important for a business owner such as yourself. I hope all goes well for you and your company.
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MU82,
I know we've discussed OHI before, and IIRC you eliminated it from your holdings due to the risk. I cut my allocation by about 40%, very fortuitously in Feb 2020 right before the pandemic. I added back a very small amount in late 2022.
Upside surprise to FFO just reported, but it was quite interesting that this is the most positive I've heard the CEO in at least 3 years, expecting increasing momentum in the next two Q's.
Still an awfully fat dividend, and now a rosier outlook, depending on what your risk outlook is.
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MU82,
I know we've discussed OHI before, and IIRC you eliminated it from your holdings due to the risk. I cut my allocation by about 40%, very fortuitously in Feb 2020 right before the pandemic. I added back a very small amount in late 2022.
Upside surprise to FFO just reported, but it was quite interesting that this is the most positive I've heard the CEO in at least 3 years, expecting increasing momentum in the next two Q's.
Still an awfully fat dividend, and now a rosier outlook, depending on what your risk outlook is.
Thanks for the heads-up. I'm not really in the market for health-care REITs, but I do hope OHI performs well for you. The only REITs I own are O and a smallish position in VICI that I'm slowly building on dips.
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Employment and wages came in hotter than expected. Should be interesting to see Mr. Market's reaction. Also will be interesting to see if this makes the Fed bump up rates again in June after having signaled a possible pause.
From Seeking Alpha:
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 253K in April, beating the 178K consensus and stronger than the revised March figure of 165K (revised from +236K). The report shows that the labor market remains robust even as the Federal Reserve has cranked up interest rates in the past year.
The unemployment rate dipped to 3.4% vs. 3.6% consensus and 3.5% prior.
It was the 13th straight hotter-than-forecast headline jobs gain.
In another sign of the labor market's strength, the average hourly earnings rose 0.5% M/M, more than the consenus for +0.3% and stronger than the 0.3% in March. On a Y/Y basis, average hourly earnings increased 4.4%, exceeding the consensus of 4.2% and +4.2% in March.
Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6%, yet slightly stronger than the 62.5% consensus.
Hiring remained strong in professional and business services (+43K), health care (+40K), leisure and hospitality (+31K), and social assistance (+25K), the Department of Labor said.
Industries in which employment was little changed included: construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and other services.
On Wednesday, the ADP jobs report showed a surge of hiring in April as pay growth slowed.
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II bought a decent chunk of AAPL in the Fall of 2019. It's basically all the way back from It's all-time high. I am pretty much exclusively a long-term investor but I am curious if our Scoop gurus would hold onto it for say 20-25 yrs? It's a nice little chunk of change but the taxes of course would suck. Can I transfer it to our NIL fund tax-free? :)
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II bought a decent chunk of AAPL in the Fall of 2019. It's basically all the way back from It's all-time high. I am pretty much exclusively a long-term investor but I am curious if our Scoop gurus would hold onto it for say 20-25 yrs? It's a nice little chunk of change but the taxes of course would suck. Can I transfer it to our NIL fund tax-free? :)
PMed you.
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been riding nividia since the mid 100's, tesla may get a little boost since ford announced it will be using it's charging format starting with it's 2025 vehicles
side note-i've been into cameco for 15 years and is finally paying off. i knew uranium had to make a come back while my advisor kept telling me to sell. same with dennison mines
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been riding nividia since the mid 100's, tesla may get a little boost since ford announced it will be using it's charging format starting with it's 2025 vehicles
Nicely done on NVDA; hell of a turnaround the last couple months. Wish I had gotten in when you did. Agree on TSLA, which I do hold.
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Nicely done on NVDA; hell of a turnaround the last couple months. Wish I had gotten in when you did. Agree on TSLA, which I do hold.
i owned nividia back in it's earlier days, bought when it was around $3-4 and held it for a while. seemed to be spinning it's wheels, sold at around $6. when i saw it go to $30 and up, i just about burped up a fur ball.
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II bought a decent chunk of AAPL in the Fall of 2019. It's basically all the way back from It's all-time high. I am pretty much exclusively a long-term investor but I am curious if our Scoop gurus would hold onto it for say 20-25 yrs? It's a nice little chunk of change but the taxes of course would suck. Can I transfer it to our NIL fund tax-free? :)
Muggsy, you bought AAPL at a great time. Your investment has probably tripled from the time you bought in (not to mention you get dividends!!). And, when you bought in, AAPL had just tripled from when someone on this board said it was a dead stock. What a tremendously bad take that was, remember that? Perhaps the worst take on a particular stock I have ever seen.
Anyhow, I hold AAPL and will be keeping it for the long run. I would say 20 to 25 years from here is a possibility (I have already been holding it for almost 20 years, so what's another 20?). At some point I plan to sell shares on an annual basis for a number of years (helps reduce the tax hit).
Also, don't worry too much about taxes. If you plan it right, things will be fine. You can sell a portion of your shares on an annual basis and probably limit your tax hit to 15% (long term capital gain) as opposed to your gain being taxed as ordinary income if you were to pull it from a tax deferred account.
Looks like me, you, and MU82 can just keep holding APPL and watch it grow over the years. You made a great call in the fall of 2019.
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Muggsy, you bought AAPL at a great time. Your investment has probably tripled from the time you bought in (not to mention you get dividends!!). And, when you bought in, AAPL had just tripled from when someone on this board said it was a dead stock. What a tremendously bad take that was, remember that? Perhaps the worst take on a particular stock I have ever seen.
Anyhow, I hold AAPL and will be keeping it for the long run. I would say 20 to 25 years from here is a possibility (I have already been holding it for almost 20 years, so what's another 20?). At some point I plan to sell shares on an annual basis for a number of years (helps reduce the tax hit).
Also, don't worry too much about taxes. If you plan it right, things will be fine. You can sell a portion of your shares on an annual basis and probably limit your tax hit to 15% (long term capital gain) as opposed to your gain being taxed as ordinary income if you were to pull it from a tax deferred account.
Looks like me, you, and MU82 can just keep holding APPL and watch it grow over the years. You made a great call in the fall of 2019.
apple's dividend history hasn't been much to brag about since 2014, no?
i've been going heavier in to dividend stocks. i've held altria and bhp for a number of years. the others are more recent within the past year or so.
pxd 11.44%
dvn 9.32%
wds 10.78%
oke 6.51%
bhp 9.16%
MO 8.42%
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apple's dividend history hasn't been much to brag about since 2014, no?
i've been going heavier in to dividend stocks. i've held altria and bhp for a number of years. the others are more recent within the past year or so.
pxd 11.44%
dvn 9.32%
wds 10.78%
oke 6.51%
bhp 9.16%
MO 8.42%
Yeah, nobody invests in AAPL as a dividend play. But, if you look to pure total return, it has been one of the best investments of this century. If you are looking for income producing investments I would take a look at JEPI and VTS. Both produce a good income stream without too much risk.
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I invest mostly in dividend-growing, blue-chip companies. Within that overall category, I own several lower-yielding, "growthier" stocks such as AAPL, MSFT, COST, MA, V, UNH, ZTS, etc. I don't own any of them for their dividend; they are total-return plays. I look at the income they produce as a nice bonus while I enjoy the outsized capital gains.
I have many classic dividend-growth stocks, including those in the utility, health care, consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors. These are "boring" companies everybody has heard of, but lots of them have performed superbly, too, such as NEE, PEP, HD, MCD, WEC, ABBV, PG, RTX, LMT, etc. Have owned most of those for years and years and years. All part of my "get rich slowly" plan!
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Yeah, nobody invests in AAPL as a dividend play. But, if you look to pure total return, it has been one of the best investments of this century. If you are looking for income producing investments I would take a look at JEPI and VTS. Both produce a good income stream without too much risk.
thank you eagle-checking em out!
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AAPL just hit an all time closing high on Friday.
Is Tugg Speedman still giving financial advice?
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The bear market has ended and we are officially in a bull market again -- or at least that's what the economists say.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-sp-500-has-entered-a-bull-market-heres-what-history-says-will-happen-next-114424541.html?.tsrc=372
Here's where we give the usual caveat that the stock market isn't the same as the economy.
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Muggsy, you bought AAPL at a great time. Your investment has probably tripled from the time you bought in (not to mention you get dividends!!). And, when you bought in, AAPL had just tripled from when someone on this board said it was a dead stock. What a tremendously bad take that was, remember that? Perhaps the worst take on a particular stock I have ever seen.
Anyhow, I hold AAPL and will be keeping it for the long run. I would say 20 to 25 years from here is a possibility (I have already been holding it for almost 20 years, so what's another 20?). At some point I plan to sell shares on an annual basis for a number of years (helps reduce the tax hit).
Also, don't worry too much about taxes. If you plan it right, things will be fine. You can sell a portion of your shares on an annual basis and probably limit your tax hit to 15% (long term capital gain) as opposed to your gain being taxed as ordinary income if you were to pull it from a tax deferred account.
Looks like me, you, and MU82 can just keep holding APPL and watch it grow over the years. You made a great call in the fall of 2019.
.
Not quite tripled but 250% isn't bad. I vaguely remember when I first posted on this board someone had a rough call on AAPL. To be quite honest, it was pretty much dumb luck for me. I basically chose to buy it because I got a sizeable tax-refund and felt like I should add a bigtech stock. I'm a little concerned it could tank relatively soon, as will the market in general, but I suppose that's a personal anxiety issue.
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Does anyone have any good (hopefully free) tools that they use to project retirement balances, including the saving phase and then drawdowns? I am trying to model a few difference scenarios and its a super manual effort.
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Does anyone have any good (hopefully free) tools that they use to project retirement balances, including the saving phase and then drawdowns? I am trying to model a few difference scenarios and its a super manual effort.
Here's an interesting, but clunky, tool to forecast potential future outcomes.
https://firecalc.com/
You start in the "Start Here" form on the first tab, and then work through the tabs. It will take some playing-with to feel confident about your inputs and understand the outputs, but 'calculating' the potential future is all about percentages.
The output is something like this, due to Monte Carlo analysis it doesn't give you a suspected future balance but instead a balance based on past performance. Less precise than you asked for, more potentially accurate.
I'm not a finance pro, and past performance is not indicative of future results. If I knew what I was doing and could predict the future I wouldn't be talking to all of you about it on scoop.
(https://i.imgur.com/s2THrpM.png)
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Here's an interesting, but clunky, tool to forecast potential future outcomes.
https://firecalc.com/
You start in the "Start Here" form on the first tab, and then work through the tabs. It will take some playing-with to feel confident about your inputs and understand the outputs, but 'calculating' the potential future is all about percentages.
The output is something like this, due to Monte Carlo analysis it doesn't give you a suspected future balance but instead a balance based on past performance. Less precise than you asked for, more potentially accurate.
I'm not a finance pro, and past performance is not indicative of future results. If I knew what I was doing and could predict the future I wouldn't be talking to all of you about it on scoop.
(https://i.imgur.com/s2THrpM.png)
Thanks much!
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Here's an interesting, but clunky, tool to forecast potential future outcomes.
https://firecalc.com/
You start in the "Start Here" form on the first tab, and then work through the tabs. It will take some playing-with to feel confident about your inputs and understand the outputs, but 'calculating' the potential future is all about percentages.
The output is something like this, due to Monte Carlo analysis it doesn't give you a suspected future balance but instead a balance based on past performance. Less precise than you asked for, more potentially accurate.
I'm not a finance pro, and past performance is not indicative of future results. If I knew what I was doing and could predict the future I wouldn't be talking to all of you about it on scoop.
(https://i.imgur.com/s2THrpM.png)
The Monte Carlo analysis is the same thing essentially every professional advisor uses, they will then report what percent of runs reach your target goals, and mean balances etc.
Different companies will claim their inputs to the Monte Carlo simulation are better/more accurate, but for a general assessment, I'm pretty sure the link you provided is reasonable.
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RIVN popped almost 10% today. I didn't see that coming. I was thinking of buying had it dropped into the high 11s, low 12s. That's probably not very likely now.
Anyone own RIVN or thinking of buying?
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Interesting news from Toyota, which claims to have made a breakthrough that will allow it to halve the weight, size and cost of batteries.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/04/toyota-claims-battery-breakthrough-electric-cars?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20230705&instance_id=96748&nl=dealbook
The world’s second largest carmaker was already pursuing a plan to roll out cars with advanced solid-state batteries, which offer benefits compared with liquid-based batteries, by 2025.
On Tuesday, the Japanese company said it had simplified production of the material used to make them, hailing the discovery as a significant leap forward that could dramatically cut charging times and increase driving range.
“For both our liquid and our solid-state batteries, we are aiming to drastically change the situation where current batteries are too big, heavy and expensive,” said Keiji Kaita, president of the Japanese auto firm’s research and development centre for carbon neutrality. “In terms of potential, we will aim to halve all of these factors.”
David Bailey, a professor of business economics at the University of Birmingham, said that if Toyota’s claims were founded, it could be a landmark moment for the future of electric cars.
“Often there are breakthroughs at the prototype stage but then scaling it up is difficult,” he said. “If it is a genuine breakthrough it could be a gamechanger, very much the holy grail of battery vehicles.”
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Is it danger time MU82? I just mean in general for the market. :)
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Is it danger time MU82? I just mean in general for the market. :)
I have no earthly idea.
I have a little more cash and cash alternatives than usual, but I'm still mostly invested. But again, I don't have a direct line to Mr. Market.
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Batteries have been the same for decades. Anyone that significantly improves the size/weight of batteries will be the biggest company in the world in short order (hyperbole, but not hyperbole).
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700+ mile range, 10 minute recharging is the holy grail.
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Batteries have been the same for decades. Anyone that significantly improves the size/weight of batteries will be the biggest company in the world in short order (hyperbole, but not hyperbole).
Yep.
Articles and claims like Toyota's recent one come out once a month. They all sound like great ideas until they don't scale or are prohibitively expensive.
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Yep.
Articles and claims like Toyota's recent one come out once a month. They all sound like great ideas until they don't scale or are prohibitively expensive.
I'm also wary of Toyota's pronouncement, as well as lots of other claims that get made in this realm.
I mean, we're STILL waiting on the F150 Lightning to make major inroads and for the Tesla Cybertruck to show up at all, and both have been heavily touted for years.
Of course, if Toyota actually can pull this off, it would be huge for them and the entire industry. The only reason I give Toyota some slack is that they were the first to come out with a popular, mass-produced and -marketed hybrid -- one certainly can't say the Prius was anything but a major success. But yes, we've been waiting ever since for the company's big EV hit.
Mr. Market seems a bit skeptical, too -- TM is up less than 1% today.
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A lot of companies have claimed to have solved the problem of solid state batteries. None are yet on the road. I believe the battery technology will get there. And then will get better, still.
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Another half million jobs added in June. Stocks down due to fears of FED reaction.
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When is the recession starting?
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Another half million jobs added in June. Stocks down due to fears of FED reaction.
32.3 trillion dollar debt, soaring interest rates, declining real incomes.
“Celebrate good times, c’mon…..”
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When is the recession starting?
~8 years
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32.3 trillion dollar debt, soaring interest rates, declining real incomes.
“Celebrate good times, c’mon…..”
The hand wringing over the debt has been going on for forty or more years. At what point do we think that it isn’t much of a problem?
Anyway inflation has been decreasing and interest rates have topped off for months now.
But some very smart business people here have predicted a recession (or worse) for some time. So I just want to know when that will be.
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Lenny, I would celebrate employment numbers like that if they happened under a president I didn't vote for. Never had a chance to prove it....
With all these people working, think how few (comparatively) are sitting home collecting welfare. That is a traditional conservative hot button.
And the deficit is too big. It has been under Republican administrations, too.
For every spending plan you criticize, I can come back with a tax cut for the rich. Both contribute.
Inflation? Coming down. Still not low enough. Finish cleaning up the supply chain. Punish greedflation. Let some more immigrants in.
Bottom line? Recessions are always possible. OPEC could go more insane. The war in Ukraine could expand. The FED could raise interest rates too high. But barring those outside uncontrollables...
Recessions don't usually happen with high demand and near full emplyment.
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32.3 trillion dollar debt, soaring interest rates, declining real incomes.
“Celebrate good times, c’mon…..”
I presume you were very, very upset with the $7T of that accumulated in Trump's short 4 years.
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Dick Cheney, 'Reagan proved deficits don't matter'...
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I presume you were very, very upset with the $7T of that accumulated in Trump's short 4 years.
Sure, but until the emergency spending caused by Covid they were lower per year than annual debt increases under Obama. But did Trump spend too much, too? Yeah.
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Sure, but until the emergency spending caused by Covid they were lower per year than annual debt increases under Obama. But did Trump spend too much, too? Yeah.
Obama cut national debt by more that 50%, after W ran it up.
R's always run the debt up during their presidency and then complain when Ds are president, it's kinda funny. Funny that the Ds are obviously, provably the fiscally responsibility ones.
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Economists have predicted 100 of the last 1 recessions.
"A recession is imminent" is very common investing-site fodder. I've been active on one large site since 2011, and there have been literally hundreds of articles over the years predicting the next recession to start "soon." There was gonna be one in 2012, in 2014, in 2016, in 2018 and so on and so on.
There finally WAS a recession in the months after the stock market's pandemic plunge -- but it was very short-lived, as tech and consumers came roaring back. It took a cataclysmic event to actually put the economy in recession, but that hasn't stopped predictions that the next one's right around the corner.
After the Fed started raising rates, we were definitely gonna have a recession in 2022. Then by the beginning of 2023. Then by the second half of 2023. Now by the beginning of 2024.
One of these days, there really will be another recession because that's the way economic cycles work, and some gurus will be able to say "I told you so!" They won't mention that they also told us so in 2014 and 2018 and 2021 and another half-dozen times (or more).
Last weekend, my wife and I went to a popular entertainment district that includes a brewery, restaurants and shops. Every one of them had a help-wanted sign up. EVERY SINGLE ONE. The U.S. is still adding hundreds of thousands jobs every month. Unemployment is near an all-time low. Some businesses have had to shorten hours or services because they can't find enough workers. Even the big tech companies that have had layoffs this year still have workforces that are considerably larger than they were before the pandemic. There is a headline in the Charlotte newspaper every week or two about this company or that company opening up here, ready to employ X number of people. I hope they can find the employees they need.
If this is a recession, it is the only one of its kind ever. If it's the precursor to a recession, it is the only one of its kind ever.
I say all of this knowing that a recession could start this quarter. Or next. Or 10 quarters from now. Or in 10 years. This is why I invest the way I do -quality stocks, long-term, buy-and-holdish, mostly blue-chip dividend names with a little growth thrown in.
They don't ring a bell warning us the market is about to crash, and they don't ring a bell alerting us when the market is at the bottom. And the same is true of a recession.
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Sure, but until the emergency spending caused by Covid they were lower per year than annual debt increases under Obama. But did Trump spend too much, too? Yeah.
No. He actually didn't. The United States economic recovery has been stronger than almost all of the worlds because we spent a bunch to make sure we didn't face an enormous economic catastrophe on top of a public health one.
Our GDP is just slightly below where it would have been projected to be, our inflation is in check especially compared to Europe, and our unemployment is microscopic.
https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-us-economic-recovery-in-international-context-2023
Ignore the "Biden Administration" stuff in here and just look at the figures. This started under Trump. Frankly he should take a lot more credit for this (and Operation Warp Speed) than he does, and not focus so damn much on personal vandettas.
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No. He actually didn't. The United States economic recovery has been stronger than almost all of the worlds because we spent a bunch to make sure we didn't face an enormous economic catastrophe on top of a public health one.
Our GDP is just slightly below where it would have been projected to be, our inflation is in check especially compared to Europe, and our unemployment is microscopic.
https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-us-economic-recovery-in-international-context-2023
Ignore the "Biden Administration" stuff in here and just look at the figures. This started under Trump. Frankly he should take a lot more credit for this (and Operation Warp Speed) than he does, and not focus so damn much on personal vandettas.
YEP.
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The hand wringing over the debt has been going on for forty or more years. At what point do we think that it isn’t much of a problem?
Anyway inflation has been decreasing and interest rates have topped off for months now.
But some very smart business people here have predicted a recession (or worse) for some time. So I just want to know when that will be.
FWIW, I read a CNBC interview with an economist this week and he referred to it as a "rolling recession for lack of a better description" which is why the job numbers continue to be good. He said it was hitting one sector at a time and as that sector improved and popped back up the next one will slow. The housing market had been dead and showed an uptick in May followed by the best month in two years in June as buyers have to come to grips that the loan % increase is here to stay. Travel and hospitality has seen non-stop a flood of spending. I can say that manufacturing other than defense, aerospace, automotive is extremely slow right now. Everyone I talk to says the same. The powers that be decided we are furloughing operators in stages over the next 6 weeks because we don't want to lose them. I've talked to other manufacturing plants that are on 3 day work weeks. My customers are telling mew the same both domestic and internationally. Everything is being pushed out into late 3Q early 4Q. My customers order forecasts do show a sizeable increase in September and stable after that.
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The hand wringing over the debt has been going on for forty or more years. At what point do we think that it isn’t much of a problem?
Anyway inflation has been decreasing and interest rates have topped off for months now.
But some very smart business people here have predicted a recession (or worse) for some time. So I just want to know when that will be.
This is the only debt metric that matters: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
It is still historically high, but decreasing. As long as we keep trending down, we are fine. Ideally we'd like to be below 100%
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FWIW, I read a CNBC interview with an economist this week and he referred to it as a "rolling recession for lack of a better description" which is why the job numbers continue to be good. He said it was hitting one sector at a time and as that sector improved and popped back up the next one will slow. The housing market had been dead and showed an uptick in May followed by the best month in two years in June as buyers have to come to grips that the loan % increase is here to stay. Travel and hospitality has seen non-stop a flood of spending. I can say that manufacturing other than defense, aerospace, automotive is extremely slow right now. Everyone I talk to says the same. The powers that be decided we are furloughing operators in stages over the next 6 weeks because we don't want to lose them. I've talked to other manufacturing plants that are on 3 day work weeks. My customers are telling mew the same both domestic and internationally. Everything is being pushed out into late 3Q early 4Q. My customers order forecasts do show a sizeable increase in September and stable after that.
This sounds accurate based on what I’ve seen and dealt with
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YoY CPI growth has seemingly halved. Seems like the folks on main street are feeling some relative relief.
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This is the only debt metric that matters: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
It is still historically high, but decreasing. As long as we keep trending down, we are fine. Ideally we'd like to be below 100%
Agreed. People crow about the debt, but then don't mention that GDP is also up.
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FWIW, I read a CNBC interview with an economist this week and he referred to it as a "rolling recession for lack of a better description" which is why the job numbers continue to be good. He said it was hitting one sector at a time and as that sector improved and popped back up the next one will slow. The housing market had been dead and showed an uptick in May followed by the best month in two years in June as buyers have to come to grips that the loan % increase is here to stay. Travel and hospitality has seen non-stop a flood of spending. I can say that manufacturing other than defense, aerospace, automotive is extremely slow right now. Everyone I talk to says the same. The powers that be decided we are furloughing operators in stages over the next 6 weeks because we don't want to lose them. I've talked to other manufacturing plants that are on 3 day work weeks. My customers are telling mew the same both domestic and internationally. Everything is being pushed out into late 3Q early 4Q. My customers order forecasts do show a sizeable increase in September and stable after that.
Not sure about the “rolling recession” term (and neither was the interviewee, to his credit), but I do agree with the concept. I’ll only add that this kind of thing is quite common.
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Ignore the "Biden Administration" stuff in here and just look at the figures. This started under Trump. Frankly he should take a lot more credit for this (and Operation Warp Speed) than he does, and not focus so damn much on personal vandettas.
He'd like to take credit for it, and he could, except the right-wing decided to make a life-saving vaccine a wedge issue, so he can't without alienating his drooling base. Look no further our own drooling dentist who did a 180-flip, just like Fox told him to do.
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32.3 trillion dollar debt, soaring interest rates, declining real incomes.
“Celebrate good times, c’mon…..”
Your post is about a year too late. Still harping on inflation? Turns out it was transitory after all. It increased rapidly just as Biden was coming into office and has shrunk to about half of where it was at its peak, and is still falling. If you're rooting for America to do well, this is about the best post-COVID outcome you could expect.
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Another half million jobs added in June. Stocks down due to fears of FED reaction.
I was wrong. The official number for June was 209000. Somebody jumped the gun and I bit.
The other source has not retracted its 497k tally, though.
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I was wrong. The official number for June was 209000. Somebody jumped the gun and I bit.
The other source has not retracted its 497k tally, though.
I believe that was the ADP report, so scanning different data.
209K is enough to guarantee another rate hike to slow down the economy, so the market dipped. Personally, I think the Fed is overshooting on interest rates with inflation slowing as it has, but they are sticking to their 2% target.
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The FED has to step in. Can't let those workers get too much leverage.
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I was wrong. The official number for June was 209000. Somebody jumped the gun and I bit.
The other source has not retracted its 497k tally, though.
The 497 was ADP June report. Higher than expected.
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SoCalEagle
You think inflation has really been cut roughly in half? I think the government economic numbers that are reported are about as believable as the economic numbers that China reports.
As for inflation, I have no idea what items have reduced in price over the past year, but any reduction in certain products was met with increases elsewhere. We have restaurants in our area that raised prices 3-4 times over the past year and have not seen reduction.
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SoCalEagle
You think inflation has really been cut roughly in half? I think the government economic numbers that are reported are about as believable as the economic numbers that China reports.
As for inflation, I have no idea what items have reduced in price over the past year, but any reduction in certain products was met with increases elsewhere. We have restaurants in our area that raised prices 3-4 times over the past year and have not seen reduction.
A reduction in inflation isn't a reduction in prices. (That would be negative inflation or deflation.) A reduction in inflation means that prices are increasing at a lesser rate.
For example, when inflation peaked last July, it was at 9.1% which meant a 9.1% increase from July 2021. Inflation this past May was 4.0% - prices were 4.0% higher than May 2022.
I have no idea why you wouldn't believe the governments economic numbers.
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SoCalEagle
You think inflation has really been cut roughly in half? I think the government economic numbers that are reported are about as believable as the economic numbers that China reports.
As for inflation, I have no idea what items have reduced in price over the past year, but any reduction in certain products was met with increases elsewhere. We have restaurants in our area that raised prices 3-4 times over the past year and have not seen reduction.
Goose, don't take it from me, look it up for yourself. Inflation is less than half of where it was a year ago, and will likely continue to go down. The good news for me is that inflation is down even lower in my area (running at 3.2%). I think what you are saying is that you don't like the latest inflation numbers (maybe you want to see them higher for political reasons) so you will ignore them. Dude, get out and celebrate, things are looking much better now than in the recent past.
Sultan, you hit the nail on the head regarding how to read inflation. That's exactly how it works. And now some economists are thinking that inflation is falling too fast and we may have deflation on the horizon. For those of you who remember your Econ classes, deflation is much worse than inflation. Slow down the Fed, they are cutting inflation too fast!!!
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RIVN stock is on fire, up roughly 90% in the past nine sessions. Today shares are hovering around $25, almost double its closing price of $13.45 on June 26.
I almost pulled the trigger on this one, but I got caught flat footed. Oh well, anyone thinking of buying in at this level? Pros, cons are welcome.
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Sultan
Thank you for the inflation education. I fully understand the process.
Do you believe the China economic numbers?
SoCal
Deflation or stagflation is something we do not want. As for political reasons, when it comes to economics, I always pull for positives, regardless of the party.
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Sultan
Thank you for the inflation education. I fully understand the process.
Do you believe the China economic numbers?
I haven't spent even one second of my life examining China's economic numbers.
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I haven't spent even one second of my life examining China's economic numbers.
There's a reason that the yuan isn't a viable global currency, it's less than 5% of global reserves. Odd thing for Goose to bring up, imo.
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There's a reason that the yuan isn't a viable global currency, it's less than 5% of global reserves. Odd thing for Goose to bring up, imo.
I think he does a lot of business there so I can see why he would pay attention to it. I have no need to.
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I think he does a lot of business there so I can see why he would pay attention to it. I have no need to.
Oh that makes sense. From a purely investing standpoint I go out of my way to avoid owning any Chinese companies. You can't trust the government's financials, and you can't trust chinese company financials due to the CSRC not measuring up to the SEC. The SEC does a pretty good job of keeping US public company's financials on the up-and-up. The CSRC does not do the same for chinese public companies.
The current administration has been trying to put pressure on china to get their crap together, we'll see...
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I haven't spent even one second of my life examining China's economic numbers.
Hoo-lee shît, you guys. Something Sultan isn't an expert in. Amazing.
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There's a reason that the yuan isn't a viable global currency, it's less than 5% of global reserves. Odd thing for Goose to bring up, imo.
My intrusive Google news feed keeps giving me news story on the BRICS countries discussing starting a BRICS reserve currency to rival the US$ and to a lesser extent the Euro and Yen and Pound Sterling. I find the topic interesting. The consensus of economists says you have to be a major stable economy, none of which any of the BRICS countries are. Recurring mention of not trusting China monetary numbers either. And isn't Yuan pegged to the US$?
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My intrusive Google news feed keeps giving me news story on the BRICS countries discussing starting a BRICS reserve currency to rival the US$ and to a lesser extent the Euro and Yen and Pound Sterling. I find the topic interesting. The consensus of economists says you have to be a major stable economy, none of which any of the BRICS countries are. Recurring mention of not trusting China monetary numbers either. And isn't Yuan pegged to the US$?
They have tried pegging, and decided it was not for them.
This both accurately answers your question, and is a joke. I appreciate you teeing that one up for me.
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Sultan
Thank you for the inflation education. I fully understand the process.
Do you believe the China economic numbers?
SoCal
Deflation or stagflation is something we do not want. As for political reasons, when it comes to economics, I always pull for positives, regardless of the party.
Me, too!!!! Glad we're on the same page.
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They have tried pegging, and decided it was not for them.
This both accurately answers your question, and is a joke. I appreciate you teeing that one up for me.
Pakuni enjoys a good pegging.
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The current administration has been trying to put pressure on china to get their crap together, we'll see...
Much funnier than your pegging joke. Well done!
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Farmer's Insurance pulls out of Florida. Too many hurricanes. Honestly, with the temperature of the Atlantic and Caribbean right now, I get that. How does this factor in to Heisie's city predictions?
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Pakuni enjoys a good pegging.
Ziggy telling on himself again.
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Ziggy telling on himself again.
Wrong. My bunghole is inviolable.
Notice you didn't deny it either. That's cool. Be proud of your kinks.
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Wrong. My bunghole is inviolable.
Notice you didn't deny it either. That's cool. Be proud of your kinks.
You have a stoma or something?
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Wrong. My bunghole is inviolable.
I know it's embarrassing, but if you go to the ER, they can get that little critter out.
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Inflation decreased to 3.0% in June. Wonder how that differs from Goose's figure?
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Market's reacting nicely pre-bell.
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Soft landing baby 8-)
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Soft landing baby 8-)
Does this mean there won't be another rate hike?
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Does this mean there won't be another rate hike?
I am not on the Fed Open Market Committee. But my 2 cents...
I would say it decreases the chances of a rate hike. I could see more rate hikes this year though. The Fed's stated goal is 2% inflation and we are not there yet. But 3% is a REALLY good number considering we were over 9% one year ago.
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I am not on the Fed Open Market Committee. But my 2 cents...
I would say it decreases the chances of a rate hike. I could see more rate hikes this year though. The Fed's stated goal is 2% inflation and we are not there yet. But 3% is a REALLY good number considering we were over 9% one year ago.
On paper that's certainly true but I'm not sure the price of goods and services have correlated with inflation numbers. Of course I do live in a ridiculously expensive area.
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Does this mean there won't be another rate hike?
After looking like a July hike was a sure thing, this puts a pause back in the discussion, along with language suggesting that they still could do a hike or two if necessary later this year.
If forced to bet, however, I'd say they'll still nudge it up .25 in July. There were enough hawkish comments from the June meeting to make me think there's still appetite for at least one more raise. But I'm not forced to bet, so we'll just have to see.
Either way, it doesn't change how I'll invest one iota.
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People really have terrible investing instincts I must say. Thank God for my grandparents. :)
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After looking like a July hike was a sure thing, this puts a pause back in the discussion, along with language suggesting that they still could do a hike or two if necessary later this year.
If forced to bet, however, I'd say they'll still nudge it up .25 in July. There were enough hawkish comments from the June meeting to make me think there's still appetite for at least one more raise. But I'm not forced to bet, so we'll just have to see.
Either way, it doesn't change how I'll invest one iota.
Agree with everything here. I could see another .25 rate hike and then a pause, or vice versa, but probably still a rate hike at some point this year.
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Does this mean there won't be another rate hike?
The Fed has certainly signaled they will likely continue to raise rates. As I've opined before, I think they are risk of overshooting if they do so. Fed Rate hikes don't instantaneously work their way into the economy, IMO there is still a lot of impact to be felt from previous hikes that haven't yet fully been baked in.
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Inflation decreased to 3.0% in June. Wonder how that differs from Goose's figure?
I wonder if this means corporations will be lowering their costs as the recent price increases were attributed to high inflation.
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I wonder if this means corporations will be lowering their costs as the recent price increases were attributed to high inflation.
Oh you sweet summer child.
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America has fallen so much under this guy we can't even do a recession correctly. FML.
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Sultan
Ouch.
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I wonder if this means corporations will be lowering their costs as the recent price increases were attributed to high inflation.
I know you're joking, but your statement has more than just a little bit of truth in it. What the last few reports have shown is that inflation is falling fast in some categories of "goods." So fast, in fact, that economists are beginning to worry about deflation (See prior post about price decreases v. slowing of price increases). If this happens, then we could be in for a long and protracted recession. It's a vicious cycle - producers can't raise prices, therefore, employers can't increase employee wages, workers can't spend more because they aren't getting raises. Rinse / repeat. Let's hope the fed has seen enough of the price drops for now and decides to pause until the picture becomes a little more clear.
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In the first major earnings reports of the season, Pepsi (yesterday) and JPM and UNH (this morning) each revealed outstanding performances and gave solid guidance. Each saw stock prices rise nicely, lifting the entire market.
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In the first major earnings reports of the season, Pepsi (yesterday) and JPM and UNH (this morning) each revealed outstanding performances and gave solid guidance. Each saw stock prices rise nicely, lifting the entire market.
Turns out that if you just price gouge you make more money!
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Turns out that if you just price gouge you make more money!
I assume that extra profit is being given to the workers?
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I assume that extra profit is being given to the workers?
Yes, CEOs are workers
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Guys, contrary to the last few posts, we are in an earnings recession right now. Yes, revenue is up, but overall earnings have been down for the last two quarters and are expected to be down again for 2023 Q2 (which is being reported now).
And extra profit is not going to workers (can't since profit / earnings are down). However, extra revenue is going to workers as wages are up year / year.
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Turns out that if you just price gouge you make more money!
who has been "price gouging"?
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who has been "price gouging"?
Three of the many examples:
https://investorplace.com/2023/05/what-is-greedflation-3-examples-of-greedflation-in-2023/
Guys, contrary to the last few posts, we are in an earnings recession right now. Yes, revenue is up, but overall earnings have been down for the last two quarters and are expected to be down again for 2023 Q2 (which is being reported now).
And extra profit is not going to workers (can't since profit / earnings are down). However, extra revenue is going to workers as wages are up year / year.
As I said, earnings season got off to a pretty nice start this week, but next week a ton of companies are reporting so we'll see what's what.
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How's Budweiser and Target doin', hey?
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How's Budweiser and Target doin', hey?
Budweiser stock hasn't done much for a long time. I see a return of -1.9% in 10 years.
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How's Budweiser and Target doin', hey?
Not sure why you're trying to politicize the investing thread. But I'll let the facts answer your question and turn this back to investing ...
Those who bought TGT on June 14, 2016 -- when the stock bottomed out 2 months after boycotts began in protest of Target's transgender bathroom policy -- and held the stock through now would have 137% total return. And those who had the good timing to have sold TGT before Amazon's horrific Q1 2022 earnings report spooked investors about the entire retail industry would have pocketed an eye-popping 316% total return.
And as Muggsy pointed out, AB InBev stock has been struggling for more than a decade (total return -19% since 7/14/14). Even Bud Light being the most popular beer in the world for several years running couldn't help the company overcome its problems.
Disclosure: I own neither TGT nor BUD. Neither company has the kind of competitive economic advantages ("moats") that I like from my investments; I own Costco and Home Depot in retail and Constellation Brands in the alcoholic beverage industry.
As for making investments based on one's political leanings ...
There were many who dumped their stocks when Obama was elected, figuring the market would tank. There also were were many who dumped their stocks when Trump was elected, again figuring the market would tank. Both of those groups of investors missed out on opportunities to create significant wealth during one of the great bull-market runs ever.
The market is up another 34% (SPY total return) since media outlets (including Fox News) declared Biden the winner on Nov. 7, 2020. So those who dumped their stocks when he was elected were burned, too.
Having stated the facts, I'll now offer an opinion: Intelligent investors invest with their brains, not with their partisan political hearts.
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Not sure why you're trying to politicize the investing thread. But I'll let the facts answer your question and turn this back to investing ...
Those who bought TGT on June 14, 2016 -- when the stock bottomed out 2 months after boycotts began in protest of Target's transgender bathroom policy -- and held the stock through now would have 137% total return. And those who had the good timing to have sold TGT before Amazon's horrific Q1 2022 earnings report spooked investors about the entire retail industry would have pocketed an eye-popping 316% total return.
And as Muggsy pointed out, AB InBev stock has been struggling for more than a decade (total return -19% since 7/14/14). Even Bud Light being the most popular beer in the world for several years running couldn't help the company overcome its problems.
Disclosure: I own neither TGT nor BUD. Neither company has the kind of competitive economic advantages ("moats") that I like from my investments; I own Costco and Home Depot in retail and Constellation Brands in the alcoholic beverage industry.
As for making investments based on one's political leanings ...
There were many who dumped their stocks when Obama was elected, figuring the market would tank. There also were were many who dumped their stocks when Trump was elected, again figuring the market would tank. Both of those groups of investors missed out on opportunities to create significant wealth during one of the great bull-market runs ever.
The market is up another 34% (SPY total return) since media outlets (including Fox News) declared Biden the winner on Nov. 7, 2020. So those who dumped their stocks when he was elected were burned, too.
Having stated the facts, I'll now offer an opinion: Intelligent investors invest with their brains, not with their partisan political hearts.
I agree with much of what you've stated and the Dow has had a nice little run the last 1.5 years. It is now in the vicinity of where it was but the Nasdaq is still pretty far from it's peak. I also think Covid in 2020 impacted the overall numbers pretty significantly. As to index funds/stocks it's also important to note that the numbers are skewed because they don't take into account distributions in their overall return percentages.
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I agree with much of what you've stated and the Dow has had a nice little run the last 1.5 years. It is now in the vicinity of where it was but the Nasdaq is still pretty far from it's peak. I also think Covid in 2020 impacted the overall numbers pretty significantly. As to index funds/stocks it's also important to note that the numbers are skewed because they don't take into account distributions in their overall return percentages.
I actually included dividends/distributions -- hence "total return." I use a site called YCharts, which offers data either including or not including dividends.
Totally agree about Covid's impact on the economy and the stock market.
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I actually included dividends/distributions -- hence "total return." I use a site called YCharts, which offers data either including or not including dividends.
Totally agree about Covid's impact on the economy and the stock market.
Just look at the markets through this lens and tune out the noise. Doing so will lead to big rewards if you simply stay the course. Take inflation as one example. A simple internet search will show you this post COVID impact to the economy was completely predictable and has worked its way through our massive economy. MU82, your approach is also one way to find big rewards. Invest the bulk of your money in companies with proven track records that continue to generate increasing profit margins over many years / decades. Then, once in a while, with a small portion of your overall portfolio, take a shot at a high flyer and see if it pays off. Rinse and repeat.
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Just look at the markets through this lens and tune out the noise. Doing so will lead to big rewards if you simply stay the course. Take inflation as one example. A simple internet search will show you this post COVID impact to the economy was completely predictable and has worked its way through our massive economy. MU82, your approach is also one way to find big rewards. Invest the bulk of your money in companies with proven track records that continue to generate increasing profit margins over many years / decades. Then, once in a while, with a small portion of your overall portfolio, take a shot at a high flyer and see if it pays off. Rinse and repeat.
Yessir.
I'm a pretty boring investor -- identify well-run, high-quality, blue-chip businesses (and they aren't all that hard to identify because they're huge companies that everybody's heard of), try to buy them when they are decently valued, hold for years, reinvest dividends, buy more when opportunities present, etc etc.
I have taken a few shots, but as much as I'd love to say I bought AAPL, GOOGL or AMZN at their IPOs, I can't! I did buy some TSLA years ago, but in retrospect wish I had bought more. My most recent spec play was DraftKings (DKNG) -- it shot out of the box pretty good but it's been down until the recent rally got me back to break-even. My plan was to give it 5 years, so 2 more to go and then we'll re-assess. But that kind of company isn't a normal investment for me.
As you said, there's a lot of common sense to investing.
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I actually included dividends/distributions -- hence "total return." I use a site called YCharts, which offers data either including or not including dividends.
Totally agree about Covid's impact on the economy and the stock market.
Oh....that slipped over me on total returns. My bad. Those that have bailed anticipating the market under certain presidents have been quite foolish. I also think it's dumb when a president takes credit for the market during their time in office. You never hear them take any blame during periods of tanking. In the grand scheme of things I think they honestly play a minimal role. It's the Fed and basically we the people. There certainly are world-wide events that can play a part, especially in the short-term, but it isn't dependent at all on mainstream Republican or Democratic policies imo.
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In regards to AB Inbev, I swear I read sales of Budweiser, Michelob Ultra have been way up while Bud light has been way down ABI has a stake in Modelo also which is now the best selling beer in the USA.
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In regards to AB Inbev, I swear I read sales of Budweiser, Michelob Ultra have been way up while Bud light has been way down ABI has a stake in Modelo also which is now the best selling beer in the USA.
They do. ABI owns Grupo Modelo distribution outside the US but Constellation owns the distribution rights in the US. They attempted to buy a decade ago but regulatory rules prohibited here in the states
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Yes, Constellation, which unlike InBev has been a great investment the last decade, has the US rights to Modelo, Corona and Pacifico.
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American consumers feel good about economy
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-havent-felt-this-good-about-the-economy-in-almost-two-years-151453360.html?.tsrc=372
A commonly followed measure of consumer confidence in the US economy just increased to the highest level since September 2021.
The first July reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a reading of 72.6 on Friday. The print came in significantly higher than the 65.5 economists had expected and reflected a 13% increase from the month prior. That marks the fastest pace since December 2005, when the economy was recovering from Hurricane Katrina.
"The sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets," Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu said in the release.
Consumers have had plenty to be bullish about recently, including a month of largely strong economic data, upbeat reports to kick off second quarter earnings, and waning fears of a second Federal Reserve rate hike in the back half of the year propelling the 2023 stock market rally higher.
A 19% surge in long-term business conditions and a 16% increase in short-run business conditions were the primary drivers behind Friday's surprise print, according to the University of Michigan. The report did, however, include a slight uptick in consumers' inflation expectations.
The expectations for inflation over the next year are now at 3.4%, up from 3.3% in June but down from the highs of 5.4% in April 2022. Analysts had anticipated one-year inflation expectations to tick down to 3.1%
"Easing concerns about a recession, which had been garnering a ton of headlines in the media for most of the year, may have helped push sentiment and expectation higher," Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet wrote on Friday.
The Friday release follows a week of upbeat economic data. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index for June came in cooler than projected, rising at its slowest pace since March 2021. On Thursday, the Producer Price Index painted a similar picture. The labor market, meanwhile, continued to show resilience with weekly jobless claims of 237,000 coming in lower than expectations for 250,000 claims and below the week prior's 249,000 claims.
Last week's June jobs report showed the labor market is cooling with nonfarm payroll additions coming in short of expectations for the first time in 15 months. But economists were quick to note that the economy still added 209,000 jobs, the unemployment ticked lower to 3.6%, and average hourly earnings grew 4.4% from the year prior.
At scale, that data paints a picture of a tight labor market where Americans have jobs while prices for goods continue to decrease.
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Yeah but what does Goose think the REAL stats are.
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American consumers feel good about economy
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-havent-felt-this-good-about-the-economy-in-almost-two-years-151453360.html?.tsrc=372
A commonly followed measure of consumer confidence in the US economy just increased to the highest level since September 2021.
The first July reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a reading of 72.6 on Friday. The print came in significantly higher than the 65.5 economists had expected and reflected a 13% increase from the month prior. That marks the fastest pace since December 2005, when the economy was recovering from Hurricane Katrina.
"The sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets," Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu said in the release.
Consumers have had plenty to be bullish about recently, including a month of largely strong economic data, upbeat reports to kick off second quarter earnings, and waning fears of a second Federal Reserve rate hike in the back half of the year propelling the 2023 stock market rally higher.
A 19% surge in long-term business conditions and a 16% increase in short-run business conditions were the primary drivers behind Friday's surprise print, according to the University of Michigan. The report did, however, include a slight uptick in consumers' inflation expectations.
The expectations for inflation over the next year are now at 3.4%, up from 3.3% in June but down from the highs of 5.4% in April 2022. Analysts had anticipated one-year inflation expectations to tick down to 3.1%
"Easing concerns about a recession, which had been garnering a ton of headlines in the media for most of the year, may have helped push sentiment and expectation higher," Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet wrote on Friday.
The Friday release follows a week of upbeat economic data. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index for June came in cooler than projected, rising at its slowest pace since March 2021. On Thursday, the Producer Price Index painted a similar picture. The labor market, meanwhile, continued to show resilience with weekly jobless claims of 237,000 coming in lower than expectations for 250,000 claims and below the week prior's 249,000 claims.
Last week's June jobs report showed the labor market is cooling with nonfarm payroll additions coming in short of expectations for the first time in 15 months. But economists were quick to note that the economy still added 209,000 jobs, the unemployment ticked lower to 3.6%, and average hourly earnings grew 4.4% from the year prior.
At scale, that data paints a picture of a tight labor market where Americans have jobs while prices for goods continue to decrease.
Keep up the fine work Joe, hey?
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Amen and alleluia.
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Keep up the fine work Joe, hey?
All I did was present a fact-based report from Yahoo. If you want to say "yay" or "boo" based on which team you root for, that's up to you.
When the economy was doing well from 2017-20, one team touted its leaders and the other team played it down. Now the exact same thing is happening but flip-flop the teams.
It happened when Obama, Dubya, Bubba, GHWB and Reagan were president, too. It's as American as apple pie.
IMHO, the economy is doing OK. Just about everybody who wants a job can get a job, unemployment is near historic lows, wages have been rising, the inflation rate is falling, infrastructure projects are being built, semiconductors are being manufactured in the U.S., consumer confidence is relatively high, the stock market is doing decently, early corporate earnings reports this quarter have been good, etc etc.
Things could always be better for more people. And things could be a lot worse.
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ATT reaching 30 year lows
May be worth doing some research
Sometimes these kind of situations will trade down to a “Hat Size”
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Yeah but what does Goose think the REAL stats are.
well, you can start here-
https://budget.house.gov/press-release/fact-check-setting-the-record-straight-on-bidenomics
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well, you can start here-
https://budget.house.gov/press-release/fact-check-setting-the-record-straight-on-bidenomics
I found this group and release interesting. Looks like the members are both R and D and that it is associated with the government, but the language is so charged and biased. I was surprised to see comparisons to the Trump administration and a full rebuke of Biden’s claims. I think it might seem more credible and thought provoking if the language was more neutral.
Obviously we cannot take any stat our government says as fact, certainly not a full, undisputed one. In fact, 86% of all stats are made up, so I’d guess the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I’d also say certain sectors are being impacted far differently which gives them the feeling/thought/anecdotal evidence that some the the budget facts are stone cold facr and some are phooey.
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I found this group and release interesting. Looks like the members are both R and D and that it is associated with the government, but the language is so charged and biased. I was surprised to see comparisons to the Trump administration and a full rebuke of Biden’s claims. I think it might seem more credible and thought provoking if the language was more neutral.
Obviously we cannot take any stat our government says as fact, certainly not a full, undisputed one. In fact, 86% of all stats are made up, so I’d guess the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I’d also say certain sectors are being impacted far differently which gives them the feeling/thought/anecdotal evidence that some the the budget facts are stone cold facr and some are phooey.
This. Both sides can use fuzzy math. My informal survey. 60% of the people care about:
Do they have a job
What are the price of groceries and gas
Can I get a mortgage, apartment
Can my kids get a job/pay for college
20% far right
20% far left-each of these sides like to argue for the sake of argument
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21 Jump
Fluff is enjoying pointing out that I do not trust the government economic reports to be 100% accurate and happy he finds it amusing. My take, the numbers are not always accurate for a number of reasons and that is from both R and D side of the aisle. I guess the best way to sum my feelings is that the numbers do not accurately reflect 300+ million Americans.
There is no guy that wants a robust economy for everyone than I do. That being said, I truthfully have no idea how many Americans are keeping their head above water currently. IMO, the current state of the economy is fragile, and it is not a time a to be taking crazy risks. I believe cheap money created a very big potential risk to the system.
Again, my point in not trusting numbers has nothing to do with who is POTUS at the moment. I agree, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.
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21 Jump
Fluff is enjoying pointing out that I do not trust the government economic reports to be 100% accurate and happy he finds it amusing. My take, the numbers are not always accurate for a number of reasons and that is from both R and D side of the aisle. I guess the best way to sum my feelings is that the numbers do not accurately reflect 300+ million Americans.
There is no guy that wants a robust economy for everyone than I do. That being said, I truthfully have no idea how many Americans are keeping their head above water currently. IMO, the current state of the economy is fragile, and it is not a time a to be taking crazy risks. I believe cheap money created a very big potential risk to the system.
Again, my point in not trusting numbers has nothing to do with who is POTUS at the moment. I agree, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.
Yes. As you rightly point out Goose people know whether things cost more or if things are going down significantly. The inflation numbers do not correlate with people's current cost of living and most of us refuse to be hoodwinked.
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21 Jump
Nobel Prize in Economics winner Fluff is enjoying pointing out that I do not trust the government economic reports to be 100% accurate and happy he finds it amusing. My take, the numbers are not always accurate for a number of reasons and that is from both R and D side of the aisle. I guess the best way to sum my feelings is that the numbers do not accurately reflect 300+ million Americans.
There is no guy that wants a robust economy for everyone than I do. That being said, I truthfully have no idea how many Americans are keeping their head above water currently. IMO, the current state of the economy is fragile, and it is not a time a to be taking crazy risks. I believe cheap money created a very big potential risk to the system.
Again, my point in not trusting numbers has nothing to do with who is POTUS at the moment. I agree, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.
FIFY
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21 Jump
Fluff is enjoying pointing out that I do not trust the government economic reports to be 100% accurate and happy he finds it amusing. My take, the numbers are not always accurate for a number of reasons and that is from both R and D side of the aisle. I guess the best way to sum my feelings is that the numbers do not accurately reflect 300+ million Americans.
There is no guy that wants a robust economy for everyone than I do. That being said, I truthfully have no idea how many Americans are keeping their head above water currently. IMO, the current state of the economy is fragile, and it is not a time a to be taking crazy risks. I believe cheap money created a very big potential risk to the system.
Again, my point in not trusting numbers has nothing to do with who is POTUS at the moment. I agree, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.
Sorry Goose, but you're just way off here. The R's have spent the last decade telling you that Government institutions can't be trusted. Thats's their continued focus, don't trust Government so you are unable to judge them. Oh, unemployment was X? Maybe. You mean inflation is Y? Could be, but maybe it's not. You are playing right into their hands, if no data can be trusted, then they can't be held accountable when they perform poorly. Kinda like they didn't lose the election because there were "anomalies."
Facts are facts, the unemployment rate, inflation, GDP is all measured and reported. Sometimes you may like it, sometimes not, but the numbers are what they are. And, you're wrong that both sides are telling you that the numbers are unreliable. One side has been pounding the "deep state lies" for years now, and you know better than to continue to buy into the BS.
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Sorry Goose, but you're just way off here. The R's have spent the last decade telling you that Government institutions can't be trusted. Thats's their continued focus, don't trust Government so you are unable to judge them. Oh, unemployment was X? Maybe. You mean inflation is Y? Could be, but maybe it's not. You are playing right into their hands, if no data can be trusted, then they can't be held accountable when they perform poorly. Kinda like they didn't lose the election because there were "anomalies."
Facts are facts, the unemployment rate, inflation, GDP is all measured and reported. Sometimes you may like it, sometimes not, but the numbers are what they are. And, you're wrong that both sides are telling you that the numbers are unreliable. One side has been pounding the "deep state lies" for years now, and you know better than to continue to buy into the BS.
"Alternative facts."
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21 Jump
Fluff is enjoying pointing out that I do not trust the government economic reports to be 100% accurate and happy he finds it amusing. My take, the numbers are not always accurate for a number of reasons and that is from both R and D side of the aisle. I guess the best way to sum my feelings is that the numbers do not accurately reflect 300+ million Americans.
There is no guy that wants a robust economy for everyone than I do. That being said, I truthfully have no idea how many Americans are keeping their head above water currently. IMO, the current state of the economy is fragile, and it is not a time a to be taking crazy risks. I believe cheap money created a very big potential risk to the system.
The objective data that is released by the BEA has nothing to do with your subjective ideas that the economy is fragile and its not a time to be taking risks. Both can actually be true!
But if we've gotten to the point where you don't trust the actual data, I don't know what to tell you.
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And no government agency has ever revised down their monthly/quarterly numbers in the history of this country.
Baaaaa. Baaaaa.
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And no government agency has ever revised down their monthly/quarterly numbers in the history of this country.
Baaaaa. Baaaaa.
Really, that's the best you can do?
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And no government agency has ever revised down their monthly/quarterly numbers in the history of this country.
Baaaaa. Baaaaa.
Or up too.
And Goose wasn't talking about simple revisions - but you know that.
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This. Both sides can use fuzzy math. My informal survey. 60% of the people care about:
Do they have a job
What are the price of groceries and gas
Can I get a mortgage, apartment
Can my kids get a job/pay for college
20% far right
20% far left-each of these sides like to argue for the sake of argument
Pollsters are seeing a lot of "the economy is bad but I'm doing ok" and they tend to feel this is because news one chooses to consume continues to be negative but unemployment is low, jobs are available so individuals reporting on their own circumstances are positive.
I'm also amazed at how little context people put in these reports. Compare our inflation and our recovery to other G7 nations and you see the US leading the way back. Sure we could be better but judged against our peers were doing pretty good. It's a global economy.
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Facts are facts, the unemployment rate, inflation, GDP is all measured and reported. Sometimes you may like it, sometimes not, but the numbers are what they are. And, you're wrong that both sides are telling you that the numbers are unreliable. One side has been pounding the "deep state lies" for years now, and you know better than to continue to buy into the BS.
I’m not so sure about this. While I don’t disagree that one beats one dead horse and one side beats another, the facts that are reported are certainly within a framework. Possibly even in an ever changing one. For example, inflation is down. Sure from six months ago, but certainly not from 16. One could argue the fact that the dollar is hyper inflated and any adjustment down is still within a crazy inflated dollar range. So, yeah, inflation is down, I suppose.
Certain data doesn’t take into account certain segments of the economy. To me, trying to follow FED reports, inflation reports, etc., has become a game the talking heads like to play. The dollar is worth less, people are spending more, people are making more, some industries can’t find workers, some industries are laying off tens of thousands.
Obviously, I am no expert and was raised to think one way and have drastically evolved from that way of thinking. I have no doubt you know substantially more than I do about monetary policy, I’m speaking more to the fact are facts statement as we know how well that one works with people in a debate.
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Really, that's the best you can do?
Tell me what was wrong about my statement.
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This is the Investing thread. How is each person’s view of the economy affecting his or her investing choices?
For me, little if at all. I don’t pay much attention to macro situations. I try to own pieces of high-quality businesses no matter what kind of noise there is.
So yeah, our portfolio suffered paper “losses” in 2001-02, 2008-09, 2020, etc. But being a long-term investor who doesn’t pretend to be able to time the market, I stayed invested and actually invested more at lower prices … and our portfolio recovered and then some.
I’m at a bit of a different life stage now so I have a little more in cash equivalents than I did 5 and 10 and 20 years ago, but that’s not because I’m trying to make guesses about recessions or corrections.
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch.
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I’m not so sure about this. While I don’t disagree that one beats one dead horse and one side beats another, the facts that are reported are certainly within a framework. Possibly even in an ever changing one. For example, inflation is down. Sure from six months ago, but certainly not from 16. One could argue the fact that the dollar is hyper inflated and any adjustment down is still within a crazy inflated dollar range. So, yeah, inflation is down, I suppose.
Certain data doesn’t take into account certain segments of the economy. To me, trying to follow FED reports, inflation reports, etc., has become a game the talking heads like to play. The dollar is worth less, people are spending more, people are making more, some industries can’t find workers, some industries are laying off tens of thousands.
Obviously, I am no expert and was raised to think one way and have drastically evolved from that way of thinking. I have no doubt you know substantially more than I do about monetary policy, I’m speaking more to the fact are facts statement as we know how well that one works with people in a debate.
I was gonna quote Sultan to say something in this frame of thought, but this is a better building point.
I don't necessarily think numbers are fudged as Goose was alluding to, but I definitely don't think simple reporting of certain economic indicators or statistics are indicative of actual progress or regression, much less the narrative they are packaged with.
Market reaction isn't bible, but there is a reason you often see a snap reaction to big economic reactions (as algos scrape headlines for key words) but then as traders and analysts actually look at the report and comp it next to other economic factors, the reaction is either much more muted, or completely reversed.
I don't trust the picture painted by either party in control as it pertains to economic data, not that I think its wrong, but like 21 said, its all a game, and you can show one number to be BRILLIANT even while 3 others are dismal or concerning. Sometimes the picture is totally correct, regardless of the source, but I like to (and I wish others would) actually read into and understand the implications and bigger picture before clapping like a seal cause "my team did something good" or throwing my hat cause the bad guys claim the numbers are a win.
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I was gonna quote Sultan to say something in this frame of thought, but this is a better building point.
I don't necessarily think numbers are fudged as Goose was alluding to, but I definitely don't think simple reporting of certain economic indicators or statistics are indicative of actual progress or regression, much less the narrative they are packaged with.
Market reaction isn't bible, but there is a reason you often see a snap reaction to big economic reactions (as algos scrape headlines for key words) but then as traders and analysts actually look at the report and comp it next to other economic factors, the reaction is either much more muted, or completely reversed.
I don't trust the picture painted by either party in control as it pertains to economic data, not that I think its wrong, but like 21 said, its all a game, and you can show one number to be BRILLIANT even while 3 others are dismal or concerning. Sometimes the picture is totally correct, regardless of the source, but I like to (and I wish others would) actually read into and understand the implications and bigger picture before clapping like a seal cause "my team did something good" or throwing my hat cause the bad guys claim the numbers are a win.
I would say that short-tern economic success isn't about party policies.
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Tell me what was wrong about my statement.
Your statement had nothing to do with Goose's claim.
The government revises numbers on a monthly basis as a matter of course as additional data comes in.
Goose's claim is that the government cooks the books for nefarious purposes and compared the U.S. government to the Chinese government.
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I would say say that short-tern economic success isn't about party policies.
Correct.
That's the basis for shareholder capitalism
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Your statement had nothing to do with Goose's claim.
The government revises numbers on a monthly basis as a matter of course as additional data comes in.
Goose's claim is that the government cooks the books for nefarious purposes and compared the U.S. government to the Chinese government.
I was responding to socal, but you be you pigpig.
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Oh my bad, I forgot that social media rule where you can't respond to whoever you choose.
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Oh my bad, I forgot that social media rule where you can't respond to whoever you choose.
🐷🐷
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🐷🐷
You only have yourself to blame for looking like an idiot.
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You only have yourself to blame for looking like an idiot.
🐷🐷
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Mr. Market's doing some bargain-bin shopping this morning.
T +7.4%
VZ +4.8%
CVS +2.5%
QCOM +2.4%
DIS +1.7%
Among other beaten-down names.
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Smith
That is not what I said. If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard. You really are a foul ball.
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Smith
That is not what I said. If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard. You really are a foul ball.
:o :o :o
"I think the government economic numbers that are reported are about as believable as the economic numbers that China reports." - Goose
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Smith
That is not what I said. If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard. You really are a foul ball.
Somebody did indeed "bumped your hard".
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🐷🐷
Your best work
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Bumping your hard can be either good or bad.
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Bumping your hard can be either good or bad.
Bumping his hard is why Ziggy rides public transportation at rush hour.
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Or was banned from doing so.
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Sorry Goose, but you're just way off here. The R's have spent the last decade telling you that Government institutions can't be trusted. Thats's their continued focus, don't trust Government so you are unable to judge them. Oh, unemployment was X? Maybe. You mean inflation is Y? Could be, but maybe it's not. You are playing right into their hands, if no data can be trusted, then they can't be held accountable when they perform poorly. Kinda like they didn't lose the election because there were "anomalies."
Facts are facts, the unemployment rate, inflation, GDP is all measured and reported. Sometimes you may like it, sometimes not, but the numbers are what they are. And, you're wrong that both sides are telling you that the numbers are unreliable. One side has been pounding the "deep state lies" for years now, and you know better than to continue to buy into the BS.
They've been doing that since Ronald Reagan. Far more than the last decade. "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help".
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Yeah, I guess MTG, while trying to bash Dems, said it best: (I'm paraphrasing) You know those crazy Dems are trying to build infrastructure, provide healthcare to the poor, and spend money on bringing manufacturing back to the US to provide better paying jobs for the middle class.
Uh, yes please.
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Back to investing: AAPL hits an all time high today on news of Apple GPT.
Carry on.
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Lots of positive movement based on earnings reports.
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Back to investing: AAPL hits an all time high today on news of Apple GPT.
Carry on.
Who saw that coming?
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I'd like the Fed not to raise interest rates at the next meeting, though the market already has it priced in. The trajectory of inflation is such that they are going to hit their 2% target, or be in the near vicinity, without additional raises. And if the next 1-2 months doesn't bear that out, then they can act. For now, stop smashing what you've already killed.
They were late to act, now I think they are going to be late to stop acting.
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I'd like the Fed not to raise interest rates at the next meeting, though the market already has it priced in. The trajectory of inflation is such that they are going to hit their 2% target, or be in the near vicinity, without additional raises. And if the next 1-2 months doesn't bear that out, then they can act. For now, stop smashing what you've already killed.
They were late to act, now I think they are going to be late to stop acting.
Based on everything I'm reading, a .25 raise is likely. As long as the accompanying comments aren't too hawkish, I think Mr. Market actually will like that. If they signal a pause, or maybe even a plan to not do any more raises unless conditions warrant (kind of as you are saying), the market probably will finish strongly this year unless there is a black swan event of some kind.
Back to investing: AAPL hits an all time high today on news of Apple GPT.
Carry on.
Who saw that coming?
8-)
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NVDA to the moon baby!! when this thing hit 112 last fall was grabbing with both hands
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NFLX and TSLA down pretty big premarket. From Seeking Alpha's daily digest:
Netflix (NFLX) dropped over 8% AH on Wednesday on mixed earnings report and soft revenue guidance despite a ramp-up in new subscribers and a company pivot going according to plan. At the same time, Netflix may be in a better position than traditional studios in terms of the disruptive double strike in Hollywood, given different production timelines and a long content pipeline. With regards to its account-sharing plans, Netflix said the cancel reaction was low and it's seeing "healthy" conversion of borrower households into full-paying memberships.
Traders were also disenchanted with Tesla (TSLA) following Q2 results, though it took some time to drive in a specific direction. Shares were initially unchanged after the EV maker's numbers topped estimates, but the stock fell 4% after CEO Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts if market conditions become unstable. He also referenced a slight decrease in Q3 production and did not give a specific timeline on Cybertruck's launch, though Tesla is in early talks with other automakers to license full self-driving software, which could boost its margins.
Meanwhile, a nice report this morning from JNJ. Shares are fighting to trade in positive territory despite the negative market sentiment caused by the NFLX and TSLA reports.
Disclosure: I am long JNJ and TSLA, no stake in NFLX.
EDIT: Now here's an analyst who's really down on Elon's company. I think (and sure hope) he's wrong, but wow ...
After Tesla's mixed second quarter, which featured a bad whiff on gross profit margin thanks to a steady drumbeat of price cuts, one Wall Street analyst is coming out blasting on the the EV maker's stock.
"I still think Tesla is egregiously overvalued right now," Roth Capital Partners Tesla bear Craig Irwin said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above).
Coming into the earnings release late Wednesday, Irwin had an $85 price target on Tesla, suggesting downside potential of a whopping 71%.
Tesla shares fell 3% to $281.55 in pre-market trading on Thursday. The company's ticker page was the most active on the Yahoo Finance platform.
The analyst didn't rule out slashing his price target further owing to Tesla's various profit challenges — ranging from price cuts to increased investments in AI software and Cybertruck production.
Irwin added: "We're very bearish on Tesla. We think people are much better off looking at many of the other names either in conventional auto manufacturers or some of the emerging players as opportunities for investment."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-is-worth-only-85-after-gross-margin-whiff-analyst-says-wall-street-reacts-085541588.html
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I'd like the Fed not to raise interest rates at the next meeting, though the market already has it priced in. The trajectory of inflation is such that they are going to hit their 2% target, or be in the near vicinity, without additional raises. And if the next 1-2 months doesn't bear that out, then they can act. For now, stop smashing what you've already killed.
They were late to act, now I think they are going to be late to stop acting.
I agree with this. Skip another hike. You can always hike it the next time around.
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Didn't know where else to put:
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Didn't know where else to put:
Meh, we're well out of the woods unless WW3 kicks off. Some people just hate being wrong. Inflation is back to normal-ish. CPI YoY is back to normal. Rates are finally back to where they should be, meaning that the next time there's deflation we have some ammo to fix it instead of that absolutely wild 0 rate environment we experienced.
Like usual, lots of people have opinions about things they don't understand. Like this whole thread. And me.
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Meh, we're well out of the woods unless WW3 kicks off. Some people just hate being wrong. Inflation is back to normal-ish. CPI YoY is back to normal. Rates are finally back to where they should be, meaning that the next time there's deflation we have some ammo to fix it instead of that absolutely wild 0 rate environment we experienced.
Like usual, lots of people have opinions about things they don't understand. Like this whole thread. And me.
Deflation, or more likely, a recession
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Goose, to be fair, I think this example is what you are talking about when you think the economy is "fragile."
https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1682120877515714562?s=20
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Goose, to be fair, I think this example is what you are talking about when you think the economy is "fragile."
https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1682120877515714562?s=20
She's got two kids by the time she is 22... She's going to be poor for a while. Kids are expensive.
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Goose, to be fair, I think this example is what you are talking about when you think the economy is "fragile."
https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1682120877515714562?s=20
This is a success story.
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This is a success story.
I agree. But she doesn’t feel that way.
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Goldman Sachs on why stock prices have been going up even in a rising-rate environment:
Earnings look to have bottomed - Corporate profitability has been equally as important as real rates in explaining index valuations. Accordingly, along with rising rates, declining profitability helped explain some of the P/E compression in 2022. In recent quarters, however, S&P 500 earnings appear to have bottomed, and we expect an acceleration to 5% EPS growth in 2024.
Also, Goldman said, while index P/E ratios look high ...
The seven largest stocks in the S&P 500 (Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA)) account for 28% of the market cap and have contributed 12 pp of the index’s 19% YTD total return. In aggregate, these stocks trade at an NTM P/E of 32x vs. 20x for the aggregate index. The remaining 493 firms trade at 17x. In part due to expectations that AI will be a secular tailwind for sales and margins, the P/E multiple of the top seven stocks has risen by 2 turns since the start of April despite higher rates.
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I have to say that I honestly have no idea what the actual truth about our economy is presently. I have read various "leading" economists in several sources that have said one thing in the last 9 months, "changed their opinion", went back to their original prognostications, and now are taking about either a soft landing or a recession. I mean they honestly sound no different from Jim Cramer. All this said we seem to know that the dollar isn't going as far as it used to but at the same time the consumer spending and GDP have exceeded expectations. I have several questions: Do you trust these numbers as facts? Have economists become more political? Who do you actually believe? What exactly will determine Powell not raising interest rates anymore? Is your cost of living/overall expenses in your community more, less, or about the same as they were say a year ago?
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I have to say that I honestly have no idea what the actual truth about our economy is presently. I have read various "leading" economists in several sources that have said one thing in the last 9 months, "changed their opinion", went back to their original prognostications, and now are taking about either a soft landing or a recession. I mean they honestly sound no different from Jim Cramer. All this said we seem to know that the dollar isn't going as far as it used to but at the same time the consumer spending and GDP have exceeded expectations. I have several questions: Do you trust these numbers as facts? Have economists become more political? Who do you actually believe? What exactly will determine Powell not raising interest rates anymore? Is your cost of living/overall expenses in your community more, less, or about the same as they were say a year ago?
I trust the numbers, but not the analysis. If inflation rises quickly then rates will go up.
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I have to say that I honestly have no idea what the actual truth about our economy is presently. I have read various "leading" economists in several sources that have said one thing in the last 9 months, "changed their opinion", went back to their original prognostications, and now are taking about either a soft landing or a recession. I mean they honestly sound no different from Jim Cramer. All this said we seem to know that the dollar isn't going as far as it used to but at the same time the consumer spending and GDP have exceeded expectations. I have several questions: Do you trust these numbers as facts? Have economists become more political? Who do you actually believe? What exactly will determine Powell not raising interest rates anymore? Is your cost of living/overall expenses in your community more, less, or about the same as they were say a year ago?
No, I put all my money into bronze
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I have to say that I honestly have no idea what the actual truth about our economy is presently. I have read various "leading" economists in several sources that have said one thing in the last 9 months, "changed their opinion", went back to their original prognostications, and now are taking about either a soft landing or a recession. I mean they honestly sound no different from Jim Cramer. All this said we seem to know that the dollar isn't going as far as it used to but at the same time the consumer spending and GDP have exceeded expectations. I have several questions: Do you trust these numbers as facts? Have economists become more political? Who do you actually believe? What exactly will determine Powell not raising interest rates anymore? Is your cost of living/overall expenses in your community more, less, or about the same as they were say a year ago?
GDP is still growing, inflation is still a bit high, wages are still growing, the labor market is still tight. What are you curious about?
Anyone telling you they know the future of the economy is blowing smoke. If they knew, they'd be keeping it quiet and making big bucks. Economic forecasting is more akin to astrology than it is to meteorology. Like Warren Buffett said, “We think any company that has an economist has one employee too many.” Also, Buffett said, “I don’t pay any attention to what economists say, frankly. [...] You have all these economists with 160 IQs that spend their life studying it, can you name me one super-wealthy economist that’s ever made money out of securities? No.”
This is the investing thread, not the economy thread. The economy thread got locked long ago on the Covid forum, maybe it's time to start one up again?
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GDP is still growing, inflation is still a bit high, wages are still growing, the labor market is still tight. What are you curious about?
Anyone telling you they know the future of the economy is blowing smoke. If they knew, they'd be keeping it quiet and making big bucks. Economic forecasting is more akin to astrology than it is to meteorology. Like Warren Buffett said, “We think any company that has an economist has one employee too many.” Also, Buffett said, “I don’t pay any attention to what economists say, frankly. [...] You have all these economists with 160 IQs that spend their life studying it, can you name me one super-wealthy economist that’s ever made money out of securities? No.”
This is the investing thread, not the economy thread. The economy thread got locked long ago on the Covid forum, maybe it's time to start one up again?
Why is Powell continuing to raise interest rates in your estimation? It seems to me there is a disconnect between wages increasing and overall expenses increasing. It sounds to me like you believe economists essentially Whistle Dixie and serve little purpose.
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I trust the numbers, but not the analysis.
Such an excellent statement and distinction.
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Why is Powell continuing to raise interest rates in your estimation? It seems to me there is a disconnect between wages increasing and overall expenses increasing. It sounds to me like you believe economists essentially Whistle Dixie and serve little purpose.
Powell is raising rates because - GDP is still growing, inflation is still a bit high, wages are still growing, the labor market is still tight. There is still risk of the economy overheating and inflation running out of control. We are nowhere near a deflationary environment where raising rates is risky.
Raising rates is not supposed to increase wages, it's a lever we can pull to control inflation. The economy is a giant experiment, especially during/after black swan events like covid. JPow is just trying stuff to see if it works, and so far raising rates has been working great. By great I mean compared to our peers, not compared to ideal. Wild times right now, but Mr Market believes we're in the clear
Here's some charts to compare our inflation/CPI to other western nations. Other countries are getting smoked right now. JPow & the government have been doing a pretty great job.
https://www.ft.com/content/088d3368-bb8b-4ff3-9df7-a7680d4d81b2
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Housing is up marginally.
Car dealers are posting huge mark ups on cars they have.
Eggs are back to $1.50 a dozen.
Milk $2.79
Gas just jumped from $3.30 to $3.70, but that is probably an oil exec with indigestion.
Still some greedflation going on.
Pretty much anyone who wants a job has one.
Still a war in Ukraine.
Still extreme weather in the wheat/corn belt.
Still surprisingly high demand.
So, Muggsy, yeah, I believe the numbers. And, as always, I believe there are and will be challenges and headwinds.
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"inflation" is still up. Sure, but how much of that is profiteering?
If we acknowledge profiteering is present, and, as demonstrated over and over, is the single greatest contributor to "inflation" then is the feds reaction likely to result in a recession?
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FWIW, the Wall Street Journal put this in yesterday afternoon's email newsletter:
Gross domestic product, bolstered by stronger business investment, grew at a seasonally- and inflation-adjusted 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said. The economy has expanded at better than a 2% pace over the past year, following a mild contraction in early 2022. Economic growth is roughly in line with the rate recorded in the decade before the pandemic took hold. The new data suggest the U.S. is steering clear of a recession, despite the Fed pushing interest rates to a 22-year high.
The emphasis in bold is mine. The WSJ's analysts are now saying a recession is unlikely. Are they right? Nobody knows.
As others have said, this is the investing thread. So here's something as it relates to investing ...
Procter & Gamble reported earnings this morning. PG is considered one of the "bellwether" stocks for indicating consumer and manufacturer behavior and sentiment. Here is the Seeking Alpha synopsis of today's report:
Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) rallied in early trading on Friday after smashing expectations with a 8% gain in FQ4 organic sales vs. +6.0% consensus. Pricing was up 7% during the quarter and the effect of a favorable mix was +2%, while volume fell 1%.
The organic sales gains were led by a 11% jump for the Beauty segment, with prices up 8%. Within the segment, hair care organic sales increased high single digits due primarily to increased pricing and positive product mix, partially offset by volume declines in Asia Pacific and Greater China. Skin and Personal Care organic sales increased low teens due to increased pricing, positive mix from the growth of the super-premium SK-II brand and volume growth from innovation. No P&G segment saw an organic sales increase of less than 5% during the quarter.
Gross margin was up 380 basis points for the quarter, or 450 basis points on a currency-neutral basis. Gross margin topped the consensus expectation by 80 basis points. The increase was driven by 340 basis points of pricing benefit and 290 basis points of productivity savings. These were partially offset by 110 basis points of contract material price increases net of a modest reduction in commodities, 20 basis points of product and package reinvestments and 50 basis points of negative product mix and other impacts.
The Cincinnati-based consumer products giant's operating margin for the quarter increased 190 basis points from a year ago, and was up 310 basis points on a currency-neutral basis.
Procter & Gamble (PG) guided for fiscal year 2024 all-in sales growth in the range of 3% to 4% and organic revenue growth of +4% to +5% vs. +4.4% consensus.
As I read that, PG had a solid quarter, partly thanks to consumers' willingness to absorb a 7% price increase for the company's products. It beat analysts' estimates for both earnings and sales, and it is projecting continued organic revenue growth to be at least as robust as analysts' consensus.
Mr. Market likes this report and guidance. As I write this, PG stock is trading up 3% on the day. (Disclosure: I hold PG stock but I'm not planning to buy more now as I believe it is somewhat overvalued.)
So what does all of this mean? Nobody knows. You get data and you try to interpret it as best as you can to help your investing decisions and portfolio management, but anybody who says he or she knows what's going to happen is fibbing.
It's why, as an investor, I just keep on keepin' on, and why I take a long-term focus.
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"inflation" is still up. Sure, but how much of that is profiteering?
If we acknowledge profiteering is present, and, as demonstrated over and over, is the single greatest contributor to "inflation" then is the feds reaction likely to result in a recession?
Profiteering is always omnipresent in capitalism. Inflation is oftentimes caused by people agreeing that inflation is happening and prices raising to their expectations. If people were unwilling or unable to pay, then prices would not be rising.
Rates get raised to discourage spending, which will drive down inflation.
Conversely if rates get cut, spending will increase and so will spending. It's true because of psychology moreso than math.
Theoretically: Deflation causes the GDP to dip, and the GDP declining for two consecutive quarters is what's defined as a recession. If GDP dips the fed could stop raising rates, or even decrease rates, which would increase spending which will increase inflation as well as raise GDP. Deflation has only occurred twice in the past 60 years, and now that we are out of our nightmarish 0 rate environment the fed has the tools at hand to avoid deflation easily.
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Profiteering is always omnipresent in capitalism. Inflation is oftentimes caused by people agreeing that inflation is happening and prices raising to their expectations. If people were unwilling or unable to pay, then prices would not be rising.
Yeah I'm starting to lose the thread on the popular understanding of when profiteering is a feature and when its a bug. Like, we don't have anyone price gouging on bottles of water in a disaster or anything like that right now. So barring monopolistic activity or price fixing, shouldn't everyone be charging as much for whatever they're selling as they can?
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The problem arises profits are merely rent-seeking, i.e. adding no value because of broken markets or monopolies.
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Housing is up marginally.
Car dealers are posting huge mark ups on cars they have.
Eggs are back to $1.50 a dozen.
Milk $2.79
Gas just jumped from $3.30 to $3.70, but that is probably an oil exec with indigestion.
Still some greedflation going on.
Pretty much anyone who wants a job has one.
Still a war in Ukraine.
Still extreme weather in the wheat/corn belt.
Still surprisingly high demand.
So, Muggsy, yeah, I believe the numbers. And, as always, I believe there are and will be challenges and headwinds.
Roast beef prices are also down. What this all means, I'm not sure. Time for an Arby's run?
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A notable analyst who usually leans bearish and who has been wrong about the market for nearly a year now, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, has now flipped to bull and says the current rally will only grow stronger:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3993344-morgan-stanley-bear-wilson-sees-a-2019-like-rally-this-year
The comments are pretty funny, with many of them saying Wilson's turnabout now means the rally is over.
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Warner Brothers Discovery ( WBD )has been a dog the last two years. Barbie has done well for them at The Box office yet the share price has not been impacted. No word yet of more Barbies in the pipeline.
The company is heavily levered and has been going through a lot of operational cost cutting and restructuring .
This is the kind of junk stock that can get legs if the bull market has legs . Stick has been bouncing around in the 12s . Although it did close above 13.
I am long WBD as a pure speculation. There is no investment merit whatsoever.
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I used to own T and got some WBD in the spinoff. Sold it immediately. I wish you luck with it. Maybe it’ll have a turnaround.
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Warner Brothers Discovery ( WBD )has been a dog the last two years. Barbie has done well for them at The Box office yet the share price has not been impacted. No word yet of more Barbies in the pipeline.
The company is heavily levered and has been going through a lot of operational cost cutting and restructuring .
This is the kind of junk stock that can get legs if the bull market has legs . Stick has been bouncing around in the 12s . Although it did close above 13.
I am long WBD as a pure speculation. There is no investment merit whatsoever.
Zaslav is an ass. Remove him and the company has a chance to turn it around.
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We're not going to discuss the downgrade by Fitch?
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We're not going to discuss the downgrade by Fitch?
From Seeking Alpha:
The market reaction to Fitch's downgrade of U.S. debt reflects puzzlement over its timing, but indicates confidence that government securities and the dollar will remain safe havens. "We expect that after the initial negative reaction in markets, investors will largely disregard this move," said 22V Research's Kim Wallace, as there is no threat to the dollar reserve currency status and no roadblock to servicing debt. That could explain why the market isn't taking the downgrade as badly as it did when S&P cut its U.S. rating in 2011. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called the downgrade "arbitrary," while JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said it was "ridiculous."
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We're not going to discuss the downgrade by Fitch?
From Seeking Alpha:
The market reaction to Fitch's downgrade of U.S. debt reflects puzzlement over its timing, but indicates confidence that government securities and the dollar will remain safe havens. "We expect that after the initial negative reaction in markets, investors will largely disregard this move," said 22V Research's Kim Wallace, as there is no threat to the dollar reserve currency status and no roadblock to servicing debt.
(https://www.northants-chamber.co.uk/cdn/uploads/Are_You_A_Boiling_Frog.jpg)
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Market is down today, but one that started the day up after reporting surprisingly decent earnings: BUD. Strong growth overseas, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, helped offset declines in North America due to the Bud Light controversy.
Looking ahead, BUD maintained its 2023 forecast that EBITDA would grow in line with its medium-term outlook of between 4% and 8%.
Good turnaround plays often come from stocks that have been troubled by short-term "noise." As others have pointed out, though, BUD was a lousy performer long before its most recent woes, and I'm not interested in owning the stock. (FWIW, I already have STZ in that industry.)
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We're not going to discuss the downgrade by Fitch?
https://twitter.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1686864960654106624?t=85M4FaUaBFhFnkqvmIW0uw&s=19 (https://twitter.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1686864960654106624?t=85M4FaUaBFhFnkqvmIW0uw&s=19)
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https://twitter.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1686864960654106624?t=85M4FaUaBFhFnkqvmIW0uw&s=19 (https://twitter.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1686864960654106624?t=85M4FaUaBFhFnkqvmIW0uw&s=19)
Alt right onion. Classy.
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Market is down today, but one that started the day up after reporting surprisingly decent earnings: BUD. Strong growth overseas, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, helped offset declines in North America due to the Bud Light controversy.
Looking ahead, BUD maintained its 2023 forecast that EBITDA would grow in line with its medium-term outlook of between 4% and 8%.
Good turnaround plays often come from stocks that have been troubled by short-term "noise." As others have pointed out, though, BUD was a lousy performer long before its most recent woes, and I'm not interested in owning the stock. (FWIW, I already have STZ in that industry.)
Taking the politics out of it completely, I never really bought the "LOL look at the stock price" as a good argument for the Bud Light boycott. Any stock price movement was purely negative press and PR fueled. Which can drive marketing and perception changes.
But as for the actual financials, Bud Light does in the range of $6-7B in retail sales annually. Now AB InBev sells through distributors, so their Bud Light actual revenue is obviously lower. AB InBev does close to $60B in revenue globally. Even if their Bud Light sales completely evaporated (which it never would), it wasn't going to drive a 10/15/25% share decline on a go forward basis. They are by far the most dominant beer brand global with a HUGE portfolio. It was never going to cripple them. The majority of people boycotting Bud Light, if actually beer drinkers, were still probably buying other ABInBev products without realizing it
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Alt right onion. Classy.
Also just generally not very funny.
If it was funny, I wouldn't care about the politics. Funny is funny.
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Taking the politics out of it completely, I never really bought the "LOL look at the stock price" as a good argument for the Bud Light boycott. Any stock price movement was purely negative press and PR fueled. Which can drive marketing and perception changes.
But as for the actual financials, Bud Light does in the range of $6-7B in retail sales annually. Now AB InBev sells through distributors, so their Bud Light actual revenue is obviously lower. AB InBev does close to $60B in revenue globally. Even if their Bud Light sales completely evaporated (which it never would), it wasn't going to drive a 10/15/25% share decline on a go forward basis. They are by far the most dominant beer brand global with a HUGE portfolio. It was never going to cripple them. The majority of people boycotting Bud Light, if actually beer drinkers, were still probably buying other ABInBev products without realizing it
Good points. Lots of folks have no idea that Stella Artois and Bohemia are Ambev.
I try to take emotion and politics out of investing, but it's difficult for me to see a big comeback for a stock that has been a chronic underperformer for years. There's probably money to be made trading BUD, but for more long-term, buy-and-holdish investors, it's a tough case to make.
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Zaslav is an ass. Remove him and the company has a chance to turn it around.
Story on Quarterly Earnings. Barbie will kick in next quarter.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/warner-bros-discovery-streaming-profit-subscribers-cost-savings-debt-1235548582/amp/
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Bad news. JP Morgan says no recession coming
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Personally, I am more concerned about the chance of a recession now than I was back when Dimon and a slew of others were calling it. I just think the Fed has continued to raise rates for too long and the full effects are still working their way into the economy.
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Personally, I am more concerned about the chance of a recession now than I was back when Dimon and a slew of others were calling it. I just think the Fed has continued to raise rates for too long and the full effects are still working their way into the economy.
I like the contrarian take.
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Personally, I am more concerned about the chance of a recession now than I was back when Dimon and a slew of others were calling it. I just think the Fed has continued to raise rates for too long and the full effects are still working their way into the economy.
BGWOAF, BFWOAG
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Barbie passes $1Billion worldwide also WBD to offer sports streaming tier.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/08/07/warner-bros-discovery-targets-max-streaming-sports-tier-for-october.html
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Just read today that credit card debt topped $1 trillion for the first time and hardship withdrawals from 401k's is up 36% over a year ago. These are both troubling reports, and sadly, shows how fragile the economy is and what may have been driving the economy over the past year, IMO.
I know I am in minority on here, but I firmly believe that this economy has been very fragile since the start of the pandemic and needs to be watched closely. I will add, since it seems like I am the only on here that thinks the economy is currently in a dangerous spot, that I more concerned than I was a year ago on the economy.
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Just read today that credit card debt topped $1 trillion for the first time and hardship withdrawals from 401k's is up 36% over a year ago. These are both troubling reports, and sadly, shows how fragile the economy is and what may have been driving the economy over the past year, IMO.
I know I am in minority on here, but I firmly believe that this economy has been very fragile since the start of the pandemic and needs to be watched closely. I will add, since it seems like I am the only on here that thinks the economy is currently in a dangerous spot, that I more concerned than I was a year ago on the economy.
Huh?
Virtually everyone believes the economy has been fragile since the start of the pandemic and needs to be watched closely.
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No inflation...nothin' ta cee heer, aina?
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No inflation...nothin' ta cee heer, aina?
Another thing no one here said.
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Just read today that credit card debt topped $1 trillion for the first time and hardship withdrawals from 401k's is up 36% over a year ago. These are both troubling reports, and sadly, shows how fragile the economy is and what may have been driving the economy over the past year, IMO.
I know I am in minority on here, but I firmly believe that this economy has been very fragile since the start of the pandemic and needs to be watched closely. I will add, since it seems like I am the only on here that thinks the economy is currently in a dangerous spot, that I more concerned than I was a year ago on the economy.
You can view the credit card debt in several different lenses....consumer spending fuels the economy, so from a macro perspective, there are positives (obviously from a personal finance perspective it is not a good thing). $1 trillion is a big number but inflation adjusted, is it really that much higher than other recent time periods?
The 401k stat is much more concerning, and is surprising given how low unemployment is. Why are people with jobs pulling from their 401k for hardships? That one puzzles me a bit.
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You can view the credit card debt in several different lenses....consumer spending fuels the economy, so from a macro perspective, there are positives (obviously from a personal finance perspective it is not a good thing). $1 trillion is a big number but inflation adjusted, is it really that much higher than other recent time periods?
The 401k stat is much more concerning, and is surprising given how low unemployment is. Why are people with jobs pulling from their 401k for hardships? That one puzzles me a bit.
Because true wages are down when adjusted for inflation?
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Another thing no one here said.
Nah, right from the horse's mouth, hey?
#GodsavetheQueen
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Yeah I'm starting to lose the thread on the popular understanding of when profiteering is a feature and when its a bug. Like, we don't have anyone price gouging on bottles of water in a disaster or anything like that right now. So barring monopolistic activity or price fixing, shouldn't everyone be charging as much for whatever they're selling as they can?
+1. To comrade jesmu profiting and profiteering are essentially the same thing.
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Nah, right from the horse's mouth, hey?
#GodsavetheQueen
No inflation, cancer cured, I LOVE BIDENOMICS!!! Gimme more
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Pakuni
Ok, for some odd reason I thought I was told multiple times that my concern over the economy was unfounded. Glad to hear I was not the only one concerned.
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Pakuni
Ok, for some odd reason I thought I was told multiple times that my concern over the economy was unfounded. Glad to hear I was not the only one concerned.
The economy is still overheating. Inflation over the past 1-2 years was higher for longer than you'd like and unemployment is back to being too low. That's why the Fed is raising rates. We're finally getting GDP YoY growth back down to normal levels.
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Pakuni
Ok, for some odd reason I thought I was told multiple times that my concern over the economy was unfounded. Glad to hear I was not the only one concerned.
I recall plenty of discussion and differing opinions on the severity of the economic downturn, the long-term impacts of inflation and the pandemic, the likelihood of recession, the proper response from the government and the Fed, etc.
I recall no one saying "The economy is fine. No need to even pay attention."
If I'm wrong, I'm sure you can dig up the receipts.
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We're doing spectacularly compared to Argentina. Wow....just wow.
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We're doing spectacularly compared to Argentina. Wow....just wow.
We're doing well vs the field. Check this out if you missed it a couple of days ago - https://www.ft.com/content/088d3368-bb8b-4ff3-9df7-a7680d4d81b2
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We're doing spectacularly compared to Argentina. Wow....just wow.
We're doing spectacularly compared almost all of the rest of the world (but yeah, Argentina is a cluskerunnatural carnal knowledge). But I reiterate my recent concerns that the Fed is overshooting and risking reversing that.
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+1. To comrade jesmu profiting and profiteering are essentially the same thing.
Source?
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Just read today that credit card debt topped $1 trillion for the first time and hardship withdrawals from 401k's is up 36% over a year ago. These are both troubling reports, and sadly, shows how fragile the economy is and what may have been driving the economy over the past year, IMO.
I know I am in minority on here, but I firmly believe that this economy has been very fragile since the start of the pandemic and needs to be watched closely. I will add, since it seems like I am the only on here that thinks the economy is currently in a dangerous spot, that I more concerned than I was a year ago on the economy.
Economy for the bottom 50% is teetering on calamity.
At least the stocks are up!
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We're doing spectacularly compared almost all of the rest of the world (but yeah, Argentina is a cluskerunnatural carnal knowledge). But I reiterate my recent concerns that the Fed is overshooting and risking reversing that.
Argentina should be an economic powerhouse. What a terribly sad history there.
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Argentina should be an economic powerhouse. What a terribly sad history there.
At least we didn't contribute to that sad history
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Source?
Check youtube.
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Jesmu
I think saying 50% is teetering might be very wishful thinking. This economy has been smoke and mirrors the past few years, possibly longer, and not sustainable, IMO.
Good news, our government has proven not to have the stomach for having economic hardship and likely will continue to save the day.
I have said it many times, I really do not know how many people have lived the lifestyle they have in recent years. My hope for them is that Mom and Dad don’t piss away their inheritance.
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proterra was supposed to save the planet via ev school buses (who doesn't love a yellow school bus?) is now going bankrupt can you say pump and dump by your heroes? weird how the same happened to solyndra. where did all the money go? their stock is worth 0.17/share from a high of $26.38 in january 2021 i'll bet there were some big winners in our dept of energy, eyna granholm et.al.
why are we paying russia over a billion $ for uranium then close a big uranium mine??
turning it into a national monument?? pretty clean energy right there
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Just read today that credit card debt topped $1 trillion for the first time and hardship withdrawals from 401k's is up 36% over a year ago. These are both troubling reports, and sadly, shows how fragile the economy is and what may have been driving the economy over the past year, IMO.
I know I am in minority on here, but I firmly believe that this economy has been very fragile since the start of the pandemic and needs to be watched closely. I will add, since it seems like I am the only on here that thinks the economy is currently in a dangerous spot, that I more concerned than I was a year ago on the economy.
i'm charging everything, then holding out for the bailout
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I have said it many times, I really do not know how many people have lived the lifestyle they have in recent years. My hope for them is that Mom and Dad don’t piss away their inheritance.
Well said, Goose.
There’s a lot of Gen-X and older Millennials playing the wrong game plan.
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Jesmu
I think saying 50% is teetering might be very wishful thinking. This economy has been smoke and mirrors the past few years, possibly longer, and not sustainable, IMO.
Good news, our government has proven not to have the stomach for having economic hardship and likely will continue to save the day.
I have said it many times, I really do not know how many people have lived the lifestyle they have in recent years. My hope for them is that Mom and Dad don’t piss away their inheritance.
I wouldn't say it's just young folks. I think there's lots of middle aged families and current 60+ on the lower end of the economic spectrum that are teetering on the verge of complete collapse.
I listen to coworkers of mine speak to barely making it paycheck to paycheck or not having much for an emergency. (Private subspecialty hospital)
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I wouldn't say it's just young folks. I think there's lots of middle aged families and current 60+ on the lower end of the economic spectrum that are teetering on the verge of complete collapse.
I listen to coworkers of mine speak to barely making it paycheck to paycheck or not having much for an emergency. (Private subspecialty hospital)
what the hell is going on here? i thought the inflation reduction act had this all taken care of...even ice cream is getting out of control
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Jesmu
I agree that it would a not just young people that fall into that category. I know people in that the 50+ age group that are not properly prepared for retirement, yet do not seem too concerned about it. I think the % of Americans that are overextended is a very big number and that has been my concern.
I have my fingers crossed that our economy can navigate the choppy waters and a crisis is avoided. If not, I think there is going to be a real mess that none of us want to see.
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Goose, the only sure thing is that you'll eventually be correct. Those who predict a rough economy or a recession or a stock-market correction are eventually right 100% of the time.
From 2010 through 2020 on the main investing site I used to write for, there would be a dozen predictions of economic doom a month. And eventually, when the pandemic hit, they were right. Of course, those who lived in fear for that entire decade missed out on one of the great stretches ever for investors, a chance to build serious wealth.
I am not doubting that your gloomy forecast will come true. I expect it to eventually. But this is the investing thread. What are regular investors like you and me and every other Scooper supposed to do about it?
I have a higher percentage of my holdings in cash (and cash equivalents) than I ever have. Most of that is a function of my life stage; I'm retired and my wife is retiring later this year, so we've taken some of the risk out of our portfolio. But we still are pretty significantly invested in the market, mostly in boring, dividend-growing companies everybody has heard of. For my situation it makes no sense to invest any other way. I'd be curious to hear about your plan.
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Goose, the only sure thing is that you'll eventually be correct. Those who predict a rough economy or a recession or a stock-market correction are eventually right 100% of the time.
From 2010 through 2020 on the main investing site I used to write for, there would be a dozen predictions of economic doom a month. And eventually, when the pandemic hit, they were right. Of course, those who lived in fear for that entire decade missed out on one of the great stretches ever for investors, a chance to build serious wealth.
I am not doubting that your gloomy forecast will come true. I expect it to eventually. But this is the investing thread. What are regular investors like you and me and every other Scooper supposed to do about it?
I have a higher percentage of my holdings in cash (and cash equivalents) than I ever have. Most of that is a function of my life stage; I'm retired and my wife is retiring later this year, so we've taken some of the risk out of our portfolio. But we still are pretty significantly invested in the market, mostly in boring, dividend-growing companies everybody has heard of. For my situation it makes no sense to invest any other way. I'd be curious to hear about your plan.
one of your better posts 82-
for most of the people here, including myself, this is a good plan. what goose, i believe is referring to is all of the rest of the people truly hurting and just getting by with what they have now. it's putting them further into debt. cashing in there 401's early with penalties, CC debt? are you kidding me? didn't unc joey side with CC companies making it more difficult to declare bankruptcy in order to get out of CC debt?
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The truth about CC debt as a percentage of income. It dipped during the pandemic as savings grew, but is at fairly normal level now. Not near any highs or at a dangerous level.
(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?width=880&height=440&id=TDSP)
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The truth about CC debt as a percentage of income. It dipped during the pandemic as savings grew, but is at fairly normal level now. Not near any highs or at a dangerous level.
(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?width=880&height=440&id=TDSP)
This is what I was alluding to
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The only concern that I have on the CC numbers is the trend. IMO, it is reflection that people are struggling to cover all of their expenses. The number itself is just a number to me, but the fact it appears people are using CC for everyday expenses is concerning.
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I think it's well established that you don't believe in math Goose ;D
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The only concern that I have on the CC numbers is the trend. IMO, it is reflection that people are struggling to cover all of their expenses. The number itself is just a number to me, but the fact it appears people are using CC for everyday expenses is concerning.
You're concerned about a downward trend in cc debt to income ratio?
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The only concern that I have on the CC numbers is the trend. IMO, it is reflection that people are struggling to cover all of their expenses. The number itself is just a number to me, but the fact it appears people are using CC for everyday expenses is concerning.
As long as you're making your payments on time and in full, using credit cards for everyday expenses - given the rewards available - is a great idea.
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Skat
CC debt was up 5% in the last quarter, which seems like a big number to me. That said, I am sure know the stats on this topic far better than I do.
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Skat
CC debt was up 5% in the last quarter, which seems like a big number to me. That said, I am sure know the stats on this topic far better than I do.
You should look at the chart that rocky posted which is cc debt to income ratio. CC debt is falling when taken as a percent of income.
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Skat
I looked at the chart. Again, that number is all inclusive, I believe, and does not factor in the % of people that have lower income. I always look at the economy from a firsthand view vs. relying completely on economic reports. From my little corner of the world, it appears that more people are struggling to make ends meet and I think that number of people is a nice chunk of our economy.
I have said it many times, I know what my wife and I make and often wonder how people making less are holding up. I have no idea how much money a couple with two kids, a house, a car payment, youth sports and other costs would need to make to keep their head above water. My guess, it is far higher than what the average family of four makes. That said, I could be 100% wrong on my thinking.
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I looked at the chart. Again, that number is all inclusive, I believe, and does not factor in the % of people that have lower income. I always look at the economy from a firsthand view vs. relying completely on economic reports. From my little corner of the world, it appears that more people are struggling to make ends meet and I think that number of people is a nice chunk of our economy. at the average family of four makes. That said, I could be 100% wrong on my thinking.
If it is all inclusive, by definition is taking into account people that have lower incomes.
And of course people are using credit cards for everyday expenses. We are largely becoming a cashless society. I seldom use cash, and very infrequently even use a debit card.
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Smith
I understand what inclusive is, my point it the report does not breakdown the ratio by income. I assumed you would understand on using CC for everyday purchase as being buying on cards vs. going cashless.
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Anyone concerned about restarting student loan payments and potential resulting consumer-driven recession?
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Yeah, but how 'bout those investments, folks?!?!
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Yeah, but how 'bout those investments, folks?!?!
They look safe. The consumer seems to be in good shape. 🙂
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+1. To comrade jesmu profiting and profiteering are essentially the same thing.
Google usury and Christianity. It was a sin until it was conveniently not a sin.
Like a lot of things ;)
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Google usury and Christianity. It was a sin until it was conveniently not a sin.
Like a lot of things ;)
What does loan sharking in biblical/medieval times have to do with businesses trying to charge as much as the market allows for their products and services?
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Just saw this interesting (and seemingly contradictory) note:
A new report by SoFi reveals that despite positive economic indicators and the Federal Reserve's stance, two-thirds of investors believe the U.S. is already in a recession. However, optimism towards the markets remains high, with three-quarters of investors being bullish on their current market outlook.
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Just saw this interesting (and seemingly contradictory) note:
A new report by SoFi reveals that despite positive economic indicators and the Federal Reserve's stance, two-thirds of investors believe the U.S. is already in a recession. However, optimism towards the markets remains high, with three-quarters of investors being bullish on their current market outlook.
Eerily similar to the survey response where 75% of respondents say their personal financial situation has never been better but 68% of those same respondents say the U.S. economy is presently the worst they’ve ever experienced in their lifetime.
Shrug
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Goldman Sachs says the Fed will start lowering rates again in Q2 2024, serving as stimulus to the market.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4002183-goldman-now-expects-first-fed-rate-cut-in-second-quarter-2024
I have no idea what GS's track record is on predicting such moves, so caveat emptor.
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Goldman Sachs says the Fed will start lowering rates again in Q2 2024, serving as stimulus to the market.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4002183-goldman-now-expects-first-fed-rate-cut-in-second-quarter-2024
I have no idea what GS's track record is on predicting such moves, so caveat emptor.
Goldman has been one of the most positive voices on the economy over the past couple of years. They have consistently said the chance of recession is lower than pretty much every other institution on the street. So far, they appear to have been correct. Take that for what it is worth.
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I think the state of the China economy is going eventually cause issues elsewhere. Their economy is in tough shape and not much hope for any short term fix. I am watching things over there very closely.
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The one child policy is finally coming home to roost. The effects are not quickly reversed.
Yes, China has many challenges. Can their government multi-task these opportunities.
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tower
The one child policy has caused issue, but a major slowdown in exports, slow domestic economy, real estate issues and high debt is far more troublesome. They have serious issues to tend to at the moment and I think they are a serious threat to the global economy.
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Potentially. From a global perspective, the search for cheap production will lead to other places. It will take a while, but if done right it can be turned into a net positive.
All while China goes through its growing pains.
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tower
Cheap labor is the least of their problems. Zombie companies, crazy debt a major real estate bubble likely to pop again are the issues they need to address. Their banking system is facing serious headwinds.
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tower
Cheap labor is the least of their problems. Zombie companies, crazy debt a major real estate bubble likely to pop again are the issues they need to address. Their banking system is facing serious headwinds.
They reap what they sow.
I think it's more authoritarianism catching up with itself. China thought they can continue to push/pull their way and get away with and it wouldn't effect the economy and everyone would just conform to their new way. Instead the West says "bye-bye" and is leaving what only needs to be in China for China business, tied in with post "0" Covid policy, plus mass real estate construction of buildings to cities with no one to live in them, and all the other stuff you mentioned.
China's loss will be someone else's gain.
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Athough, to be fair, what isn't doomed these days?
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Teal wasn't necessary on that one, tower.
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Teal wasn't necessary on that one, tower.
Man on Scoop you can't be too careful
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Consumers still buying like crazy, more rate raises in our future.
I'm starting to second guess keeping these tech companies in my portfolio. They're early-stage enough growth companies that they're still dependent on debt raises for growth. Way too late to sell them now, I'm going to have to continue weathering this storm.
Edit: I'm still buying the full US market with my money, I'm holding very little cash like normal. Just funny watching tech companies get hammered by rate raises.
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A series of articles around the web echoing Goose about China.
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Consumers still buying like crazy, more rate raises in our future.
I'm starting to second guess keeping these tech companies in my portfolio. They're early-stage enough growth companies that they're still dependent on debt raises for growth. Way too late to sell them now, I'm going to have to continue weathering this storm.
Edit: I'm still buying the full US market with my money, I'm holding very little cash like normal. Just funny watching tech companies get hammered by rate raises.
Another rate increase will kill the economy IMO. Currently both the betting market and the big houses like JPMC and GS and predicting rate decreases by next year, which is another indicator to me that the Fed has already overshot.
So short term I think the market is fully valued if not slightly overvalued. Long term no change, of course, I'm fully invested, but I don't see a lot that I am excited to buy at the moment.
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tower
I talk with our team in China everyday and country manager is the most pro-China and optimistic guy I know. He has been sounded the alarm on the economy on a daily basis and that is very uncommon for him to do. I think the situation in China is a potentially serious risk to the global economy.
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I think the situation in China is a potentially serious risk to the global economy.
This seems potentially true, but also a good and needed correction? It would result in some short term pain domestically, but would be good for onshoring and/or recalibrating foreign production to less politicalloy problematic trading partners? Plus given how much American debt China holds, might help a bit with the national debt service as well?
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Burrow
It all depends on how much pain people can handle. My belief the pain may be more than people could handle. Onshoring is not going to happen in a big way, IMO. If it did, the cost of goods would make the inflation of the past couple of years look like a walk in the park. That being said, India is going to prove to be a real competitor to China on the manufacturing front over the next few years.
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Burrow
It all depends on how much pain people can handle. My belief the pain may be more than people could handle. Onshoring is not going to happen in a big way, IMO. If it did, the cost of goods would make the inflation of the past couple of years look like a walk in the park. That being said, India is going to prove to be a real competitor to China on the manufacturing front over the next few years.
Yep, manufacturing rotation out of China to Africa & S Asia started in earnest during the pandemic (for the companies I was working with).
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Consumers still buying like crazy, more rate raises in our future.
I'm starting to second guess keeping these tech companies in my portfolio. They're early-stage enough growth companies that they're still dependent on debt raises for growth. Way too late to sell them now, I'm going to have to continue weathering this storm.
Edit: I'm still buying the full US market with my money, I'm holding very little cash like normal. Just funny watching tech companies get hammered by rate raises.
Which tech companies do you own, Ska?
My biggest two are MSFT and AAPL, positions I've held (and built upon) for years. In the last few years I've added GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA and ADBE. Also MA, V and ADP if one considers those tech. Also have a little LRCX in the grandkids' college fund. I did dabble with some "disruptors" when I got a little FOMO in 2021; that didn't turn out well and I bailed when the losses were only small, thankfully. Trying to stay in my lane, which is mostly boring, blue-chip, dividend-growing companies with a handful of large-cap growth thrown in.
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Yep, manufacturing rotation out of China to Africa & S Asia started in earnest during the pandemic (for the companies I was working with).
How did that "No limits" moment turn out? Great for cheap oil but it was a major misstep that signaled the need for risk diversification accentuated by the COVID lockdown to Western economies.
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Which tech companies do you own, Ska?
My biggest two are MSFT and AAPL, positions I've held (and built upon) for years. In the last few years I've added GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA and ADBE. Also MA, V and ADP if one considers those tech. Also have a little LRCX in the grandkids' college fund. I did dabble with some "disruptors" when I got a little FOMO in 2021; that didn't turn out well and I bailed when the losses were only small, thankfully. Trying to stay in my lane, which is mostly boring, blue-chip, dividend-growing companies with a handful of large-cap growth thrown in.
I'm only holding NET right now, but I sold about half of my position earlier this year when it was clear that rates were going to continue rising to lock in a 4x gain.
I wont hold AAPL/MSFT/AMZN because they're already such a huge % of my portfolio by holding indexes. Like, ITOT and its equivalents are like 70% of my holdings and ITOT is 6% AAPL, 5.5% MSFT, 3% AMZN, 2% GOOG. I feel like I'm good on tech heavyweights, most people are if they're holding broad indexes.
https://etfdb.com/etf/ITOT/#holdings
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82
What are your thoughts on Michael Burry's $1.6b short position on the market? It says that 90% of his portfolio is betting against the market. He is a strange dude, but that is one big bet.
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Yep, manufacturing rotation out of China to Africa & S Asia started in earnest during the pandemic (for the companies I was working with).
Ditto for me.
My customers are telling me they've built and are in-process of building new modern plants in Vietnam and Mexico and only leaving in China what is for the Chinese market.
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That being said, India is going to prove to be a real competitor to China on the manufacturing front over the next few years.
Ive spoken about this in the past, but while this is a very real possiblity, there is A LOT that needs to change culturally and business wise in India for this to happen.
China has its challenges, but India is far more difficult to import/export and its business mindset is far less Western or Western-adjacent then places like China or Vietnam.
Also, if you're a normal business (aka not super big, 9/10 figure company), importing used machinery is nearly impossible, or EXTREMELY difficult. India had issues with companies bringing their used machinery/electronics into the country and dumping it...so they just banned all imports of used machines or electronics ::)
We just imported a unique niche machine, that was very lightly used, into our India office earlier this year. Its highly specialized and is not manufactured anywhere in India (only made in a handful of places worldwide). Proving that was the only way to get the import approved. Even so, the approval process took nearly 3 months and the shipment was still held up for nearly 2-3 weeks before we submitted proper documents...aka paid 3 different people. Conversely, we sent a different machine to China last year and it was 6 business days between departure from our office and full set up.
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Wags
Our business in India is growing like crazy and across many products. Of course, India is not China and not every product category is available. That being said, I have been doing in business in China for over thirty years and not every product was available there back in the day.
I believe India saw the China blueprint for growth and learned from it. I am still bullish on China and believe 90+% of companies will remain in China, but believe India is the future of manufacturing. I am betting an awful lot on this belief and believe the first arrivers to India will do extremely well.
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I'm only holding NET right now, but I sold about half of my position earlier this year when it was clear that rates were going to continue rising to lock in a 4x gain.
I wont hold AAPL/MSFT/AMZN because they're already such a huge % of my portfolio by holding indexes. Like, ITOT and its equivalents are like 70% of my holdings and ITOT is 6% AAPL, 5.5% MSFT, 3% AMZN, 2% GOOG. I feel like I'm good on tech heavyweights, most people are if they're holding broad indexes.
https://etfdb.com/etf/ITOT/#holdings
Understood. I'm more of an individual-stock guy than indexer, but that makes a ton of sense. I wish you good fortune.
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82
What are your thoughts on Michael Burry's $1.6b short position on the market? It says that 90% of his portfolio is betting against the market. He is a strange dude, but that is one big bet.
Burry's generally been a good investor over the years, and I believe he has beaten SPY quite handily. But like all of us, he's not been perfect.
Just this past January he told his million-plus followers to "Sell." But two months later, he twitted that he was wrong in January and that he was now saying buy.
Buffett/Berkshire did a pretty good amount of buying last quarter and holds some $330 billion in stocks. And he's not short anything. He's not the gospel, either.
I can only go with how I invest. I tried market-timing years ago and the results were spotty at best. I'm not wired to make huge bets on (or against) the market. So I just try to invest in some of the highest-quality businesses out there and let them do their thing. I do not aspire to beat any particular index, just to have "more than more than enough" for my family's needs and wants. So far, so good.
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82
I agree on your post, but I thought his short play was interesting news. Betting 93% of a fund on the market tanking is all in, IMO. He was definitely wrong on January and paid dearly if he was all in against the market.
It is interesting times and I do not think the market is for the weak of heart at the moment. As I noted in another post, the China situation is a big deal and we will see how far the ripples go.
China changed the global economy for the past three decades and might be changing it again. They are a wild card and coupled with what I believe to be a very fragile economy, things could get rocky.
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Yep, manufacturing rotation out of China to Africa & S Asia started in earnest during the pandemic (for the companies I was working with).
I thought this was an old and established process at this point. It was seen and positioned for in the past, and was a big reason for the US push to establish the TPP. A major focus of that was to shift trade out of China, reduce Chinese power throughout the global economy, and bring developing nations closer to Western trade norms.
We are now just starting to see it come more full circle, and slightly delayed because of COVID and US withdrawing from the agreement.
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tower
The one child policy has caused issue, but a major slowdown in exports, slow domestic economy, real estate issues and high debt is far more troublesome. They have serious issues to tend to at the moment and I think they are a serious threat to the global economy.
Agree. Also the 20-25% Unemployment amongst the youth is also a giant red flag.
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82
What are your thoughts on Michael Burry's $1.6b short position on the market? It says that 90% of his portfolio is betting against the market. He is a strange dude, but that is one big bet.
IMO, he sniffs his own farts these days. If he didn't land pull off the big short, no one would care what he thinks. He is consistently a doomer, and he hit it real big once.
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Hards
Main reason why I mentioned Burry was based off of the size of the bet. You may correct that he is a doom and gloom guy, but that is a very big bet against the market.
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Burry probably didn't go all in on a market crash. He is using SPY and QQQ puts to hedge his long positions after a huge run up in stocks to start the year and possibly anticipating a pullback after the big run up this year. The reason I think it may only be a hedge is based on the 13F, he also bought stocks in Q2, adding to some existing positions and buying new stocks too(Expedia and MGM Resorts), don't think he'd buy those 2 stocks in particular if he felt the economy was on the verge of a huge collapse.
And the 1.6 billion number being thrown around is the notional value of the options, he paid a lot less than that so it's not as big a bet as the media outlets have made it out to be.
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Burry's generally been a good investor over the years, and I believe he has beaten SPY quite handily. But like all of us, he's not been perfect.
Just this past January he told his million-plus followers to "Sell." But two months later, he twitted that he was wrong in January and that he was now saying buy.
Buffett/Berkshire did a pretty good amount of buying last quarter and holds some $330 billion in stocks. And he's not short anything. He's not the gospel, either.
I can only go with how I invest. I tried market-timing years ago and the results were spotty at best. I'm not wired to make huge bets on (or against) the market. So I just try to invest in some of the highest-quality businesses out there and let them do their thing. I do not aspire to beat any particular index, just to have "more than more than enough" for my family's needs and wants. So far, so good.
82, Buffett was actually a net seller last quarter to the tune of about $6 Billion. However, I think he's simply picking his spots and taking some funds off the table after big wins. He likes value stocks and "proven" winners. In fact, he kind of follows the philosophy that you seem to utilize (maybe I'm seeing a pattern here). Anyhow, I predict he will maintain his shares of larger holding likes AAPL and KO while continuing to find value shares that are attractive to him. He's definitely not afraid of investing in this market.
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82, Buffett was actually a net seller last quarter to the tune of about $6 Billion. However, I think he's simply picking his spots and taking some funds off the table after big wins. He likes value stocks and "proven" winners. In fact, he kind of follows the philosophy that you seem to utilize (maybe I'm seeing a pattern here). Anyhow, I predict he will maintain his shares of larger holding likes AAPL and KO while continuing to find value shares that are attractive to him. He's definitely not afraid of investing in this market.
Agree with all of that.
While BRK will never pay a dividend under Buffett (and probably not under his successors), WB definitely likes many of the boring, dividend-growing names I do - including AAPL, CVX, KO, JNJ, MA and PG. He also likes to hold his stocks for a long time.
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This today from Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi after Walmart reported a much better quarter than Target did, and what it might mean for the overall economy and stock market:
The read from those I talked with: This was another quarter where higher income households traded down from Target and went to Walmart.
But what's unclear is why are they trading down at all given the strength we're seeing in other categories, like fast-casual restaurants?
IPO juggernaut Cava came out with an incredible earnings report this week showing same-store sales up 18.2%. People may be trading down, but they're still spending.
My Cava bowl last weekend on Long Island cost $16. Sure, I got a ton of food. But I used to be able to feed myself for days for $16! So while people are cutting trips to Target and Home Depot, they apparently have a few bucks for a $16 Cava bowl with crazy feta in an urban market.
In my view, the economy is weird right now, and stock prices aren’t priced for weird. Keep that in mind as the calendar turns to September.
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Burry probably didn't go all in on a market crash. He is using SPY and QQQ puts to hedge his long positions after a huge run up in stocks to start the year and possibly anticipating a pullback after the big run up this year. The reason I think it may only be a hedge is based on the 13F, he also bought stocks in Q2, adding to some existing positions and buying new stocks too(Expedia and MGM Resorts), don't think he'd buy those 2 stocks in particular if he felt the economy was on the verge of a huge collapse.
And the 1.6 billion number being thrown around is the notional value of the options, he paid a lot less than that so it's not as big a bet as the media outlets have made it out to be.
Well, so far Burry has missed the mark. the S&P 500 is up 3.14% since this news came out.
S&P 08/17/2023 = 4370
S&P 08/31/2023 = 4507
Not a huge sample size yet, but I will be watching. Let's see where we are at the end of September.
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Burry has called 20+ of the last 2 recessions. Ignore him, he's a perma-bear.
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Yeah, but this time he bet 90% of his portfolio against the market. Why would anyone do that? I'm an investor, but I would never put 90% of my money on anything. Diversify, my man.
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Yeah, but this time he bet 90% of his portfolio against the market. Why would anyone do that? I'm an investor, but I would never put 90% of my money on anything. Diversify, my man.
He loves the smell of his own brand.
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Do we have evidence of him betting 90% of his portfolio against the market?
How does he even define his "portfolio"? Maybe most of his wealth is in real estate, bitcoin and gold, but he is betting 90% of the relatively small stock exposure he has against the market.
I don't know that's the case, but has he disclosed everything he owns, or is everybody just supposed to believe him?
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Yeah, but this time he bet 90% of his portfolio against the market. Why would anyone do that? I'm an investor, but I would never put 90% of my money on anything. Diversify, my man.
The number floating around is not how much he paid for the contacts. People, including finance writers, don't have a firm grasp of options
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/050615/what-difference-between-notional-value-and-market-value.asp
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Media stocks got hammered Friday ; fallout from Charter Disney EDPN dispute .
These situations usually resolve themselves .
https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/disney-charter-dispute-media-stocks-fall-1235710954/amp/
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Poor baby ...
A disruption to his vegan diet, a dwindling supply of Adderall, scant access to the internet: Sam Bankman-Fried, the FTX founder, has protested his conditions in detention as he awaits trial on fraud charges.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/technology/sam-bankman-fried-jail-peanut-butter-vegan.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230906&instance_id=102099&nl=from-the-times®i_id=108420427&segment_id=143923&te=1&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
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Poor baby ...
A disruption to his vegan diet, a dwindling supply of Adderall, scant access to the internet: Sam Bankman-Fried, the FTX founder, has protested his conditions in detention as he awaits trial on fraud charges.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/technology/sam-bankman-fried-jail-peanut-butter-vegan.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230906&instance_id=102099&nl=from-the-times®i_id=108420427&segment_id=143923&te=1&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
Eh, reasonable accommodations should be made. Diet, medication, and access to information that could better his defense should be readily provided. Especially since he hasn't been convicted of anything yet. I'm not suggesting he be given preferential treatment or given unfettered access to the internet, but he is still innocent until proven guilty and should be afforded reasonable conditions.
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Eh, reasonable accommodations should be made. Diet, medication, and access to information that could better his defense should be readily provided. Especially since he hasn't been convicted of anything yet. I'm not suggesting he be given preferential treatment or given unfettered access to the internet, but he is still innocent until proven guilty and should be afforded reasonable conditions.
I actually agree with you, Hards. "Poor baby" was kind of the visceral reaction to "rich criminal defendant learns that jail is less than fun."
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There are some analysts starting to compare Apple to IBM, which famously grew revenue for years but then infamously stopped doing so about 10 years ago, causing the stock price to retreat significantly.
But there are others who say this is a relative blip for Apple, and they use this chart to point to "It's just a fairly typical September":
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2Fc7b9kvzjyl%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F64fa3689a10b2-1694119561.6596.png&t=1694181842&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1c07-9807fb01b100&sig=It_8cQBCoAXKCzDiT4i3Kw--~D)
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This downturn has much more to do with China considering banning Apple products for it's government officials than anything.
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This just gives AAPL the opportunity to buy back their shares at a better price. They are spending another $90 Billion on their share buyback program this year. This should drive the number of outstanding shares to under 15 Billion. Management will most likely continue to drive down the number of outstanding on AAPL's march to $250 - $300. No predictions on when all this will happen. For now I am just holding and letting APPL do its thing.
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Powell seems really intent on crashing the economy
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No one saw this coming.
Remember when NFTs sold for millions of dollars? 95% of the digital collectibles may now be worthless.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/remember-nfts-sold-millions-dollars-215646661.html
"A report by dappGambl based on data provided by NFT Scan and CoinMarketCap showed that out of 73,257 NFT collections the researchers looked at, 69,795 of them, or slightly over 95%, had a market cap of zero ether.
By their estimates, almost 23 million people hold these worthless assets.
Even filtering out the lower-value, less significant projects, most collections have little value today. Out of the top 8,850 collections by market cap, 18% are worthless, and 41% are priced at $5-$100."
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No one saw this coming.
Remember when NFTs sold for millions of dollars? 95% of the digital collectibles may now be worthless.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/remember-nfts-sold-millions-dollars-215646661.html
"A report by dappGambl based on data provided by NFT Scan and CoinMarketCap showed that out of 73,257 NFT collections the researchers looked at, 69,795 of them, or slightly over 95%, had a market cap of zero ether.
By their estimates, almost 23 million people hold these worthless assets.
Even filtering out the lower-value, less significant projects, most collections have little value today. Out of the top 8,850 collections by market cap, 18% are worthless, and 41% are priced at $5-$100."
need more of these
https://collecttrumpcards.com/ (https://collecttrumpcards.com/)
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Powell seems really intent on crashing the economy
Gotta put those uppity workers back in their place
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/tim-gurner-property-developer-australia-b2411998.html
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Gotta put those uppity workers back in their place
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/tim-gurner-property-developer-australia-b2411998.html
Someone doesn't understand demographics.
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No one saw this coming.
Remember when NFTs sold for millions of dollars? 95% of the digital collectibles may now be worthless.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/remember-nfts-sold-millions-dollars-215646661.html
"A report by dappGambl based on data provided by NFT Scan and CoinMarketCap showed that out of 73,257 NFT collections the researchers looked at, 69,795 of them, or slightly over 95%, had a market cap of zero ether.
By their estimates, almost 23 million people hold these worthless assets.
Even filtering out the lower-value, less significant projects, most collections have little value today. Out of the top 8,850 collections by market cap, 18% are worthless, and 41% are priced at $5-$100."
My issue was NFTs was simple. The vast majority of Financial products can be explained, at their most fundamental, fairly simply. The Big Short was great for that sort of distillation.
But with NFTs, it was nearly impossible. And so you had myself, who was a Finance major in college with an MBA with nearly 2 decades of stock and option trading experience, struggling to understand what exactly they were and why they were needed/so valuable…yet is was being marketed as something any random person SHOULD TOTALLY INVEST IN. Such a scam at best, obvious money laundering at worst.
I get/understand crypto. But NFTs, Crypto Kitties, all the other crypto adjacent products just screamed red flag
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Powell seems really intent on crashing the economy
By what measure is the economy close to crashing?
GDP continues at a 5% growth rate YoY
Unemployment still sub 4%, which is incredibly historically low
GDP to debt ratio down 10+% from the pandemic peak
Inflation, CPI and PCE, down to 3.8% YoY (off of it's 8+% peak from a few months ago)
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Yep. The radicals running roughshod over McCarthy are the ones intent on crashing the economy.
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By what measure is the economy close to crashing?
GDP continues at a 5% growth rate YoY
Unemployment still sub 4%, which is incredibly historically low
GDP to debt ratio down 10+% from the pandemic peak
Inflation, CPI and PCE, down to 3.8% YoY (off of it's 8+% peak from a few months ago)
I'd agree with you that the economy is largely doing fine and inflation has obviously cooled...which is why I've been arguing for 6-9 months the Fed's work is done.
But, Powell indicated yesterday again that his focus is firmly fixed on bringing inflation to 2%, which he seems to view as some sort of holy grail, and let the chips fall where they may in regards to the effect further tightening will have on the economy.
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Yep. The radicals running roughshod over McCarthy are the ones intent on crashing the economy.
Yeah, those morons, too.
I wonder why it is the repubs never try to shut down the government why the GQP occupies the Whitehouse?
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The government shut down under Trump. With a Republican house and senate. 35 days.
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My issue was NFTs was simple. The vast majority of Financial products can be explained, at their most fundamental, fairly simply. The Big Short was great for that sort of distillation.
But with NFTs, it was nearly impossible. And so you had myself, who was a Finance major in college with an MBA with nearly 2 decades of stock and option trading experience, struggling to understand what exactly they were and why they were needed/so valuable…yet is was being marketed as something any random person SHOULD TOTALLY INVEST IN. Such a scam at best, obvious money laundering at worst.
I get/understand crypto. But NFTs, Crypto Kitties, all the other crypto adjacent products just screamed red flag
The main problem with NFTs is that they are/were marketed as collectable art or digital art. A stupid idea to begin with.
There are use cases with NFTs, but they're not get rich schemes so they don't receive as much attention.
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The government shut down under Trump. With a Republican house and senate. 35 days.
I must be getting old as I didn't even remember that. Of course that was Trump shutting down his own government, I mean WTF.
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The art of compromise is dead. Politics is all about two sides coming together for the good of the country, but in today's world the Ds and a small number of Rs keep extending a hand to compromise, while the MAGA Rs keep extending their middle finger.
I know, I know, stop with the politics in the investing thread. That's probably the best thing to do, but when the stated goal of many Rs (including the de facto leader of the party and multiple members of the House) is to shut down the Government to defund the DOJ, .... nevermind.
Do these people even care about investing, or the economy, or how their actions effect others?
Good luck with your investments. You're gonna need it with these MAGA nuts running around in D.C.
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The art of compromise is dead. Politics is all about two sides coming together for the good of the country, but in today's world the Ds and a small number of Rs keep extending a hand to compromise, while the MAGA Rs keep extending their middle finger.
I know, I know, stop with the politics in the investing thread. That's probably the best thing to do, but when the stated goal of many Rs (including the de facto leader of the party and multiple members of the House) is to shut down the Government to defund the DOJ, .... nevermind.
Do these people even care about investing, or the economy, or how their actions effect others?
Good luck with your investments. You're gonna need it with these MAGA nuts running around in D.C.
Waking and baking is fun.
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The art of compromise is dead. Politics is all about two sides coming together for the good of the country, but in today's world the Ds and a small number of RIs keep extending a hand to compromise, while the MAGA Rs keep extending their middle finger.
I know, I know, stop with the politics in the investing thread. That's probably the best thing to do, but when the stated goal of many Rs (including the de facto leader of the party and multiple members of the House) is to shut down the Government to defund the DOJ, .... nevermind.
Do these people even care about investing, or the economy, or how their actions effect others?
Good luck with your investments. You're gonna need it with these MAGA nuts running around in D.C.
Truth teller. We are all held hostage by the most extreme.
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I must be getting old as I didn't even remember that. Of course that was Trump shutting down his own government, I mean WTF.
I was in Arizona for the Christmas Holiday in 2018 into early 2019. Government shutdown=free admission into Grand Canyon
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No wonder the markets are unsettled. Another huge jobs report.
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Right!? The interest rate spooks are real. A couple years ago I never would have guessed that a well functioning economy = bad for the market.
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Right!? The interest rate spooks are real. A couple years ago I never would have guessed that a well functioning economy = bad for the market.
Hard to believe we threw all that free money around for so long. At least we really seem to have learned our lesson.
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Truly a weird day for Mr. Market.
The good economic news instigated a sell-off ... which was strongly reversed by day's end.
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From the WSJ:
Why has consumer spending proved so resilient as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates? One important reason: Consumers are getting older. People in the 65-and-over age group make up a greater share of the population now than at any other time on record. They're less reliant on borrowing and less at risk of layoffs than other consumers, making them a spending force to be reckoned with. Younger Americans aren't so cushioned from high interest rates, and so could stand to benefit if inflation data due this week suggests the Fed has room to ease off in its fight against rising prices.
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From the WSJ:
Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue to ease. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, they lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year. Investors will parse the latest retail sales data on Tuesday for fresh clues on the economy's trajectory.
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How top-heavy has the S&P 500 gotten? This from Yahoo Finance:
The stock market's rally remains hyper-focused on a few key stocks known now as the "Magnificent Seven."
In a note on Wednesday, Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo, noted the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 493 — which excludes Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA) — has been steady at around 19 all year.
For the Magnificent Seven, however, their collective P/E has risen more than 50%, to 45 from 29.
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The top heaviness of the S&P500 is a feature, not a bug. If they wanted to, as far as investing goes, there are equal-weight the investment vehicle vs weighted by market cap if you're interested.
Over the past 10 years your return would suffer by about 50%, and you wouldn't have any diversification/risk upside.
(https://i.imgur.com/BclDmQO.png)
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The top heaviness of the S&P500 is a feature, not a bug. If they wanted to, as far as investing goes, there are equal-weight the investment vehicle vs weighted by market cap if you're interested.
Over the past 10 years your return would suffer by about 50%, and you wouldn't have any diversification/risk upside.
(https://i.imgur.com/BclDmQO.png)
Reasonable take.
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Peter Thiel is an FBI informant.
https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-fbi-informant-charles-johnson-johnathan-buma-chs-genius-2023-10
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Peter Thiel is an FBI informant.
https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-fbi-informant-charles-johnson-johnathan-buma-chs-genius-2023-10
Well not anymore now that he's been burned. But one could argue he's probably been an informant for far longer given FBI's usage of Palantir.
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'We dug our own grave with the cybertruck'.
Poof. Another $16 billion out the window.
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'We dug our own grave with the cybertruck'.
Poof. Another $16 billion out the window.
At first I laughed at the design, however, the practicality of its features intrigue me. Tesla also has a devoted following, so I’ll believe the demise when I see it.
The stainless steel body durability will be my biggest concern
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Tesla the car company is going through inevitable growing pains. They need to get going on next generation batteries. Their chargers are being adopted as the standard and that will help them through this phase.
Still, $16 billion in a day.
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The biggest "hater" on Tesla the last couple days has been Musk, which is pretty funny.
If the Cybertruck ever comes to market, it's hard to see too many contractors and other professionals who actually use their truck for work preferring it to a "real" pickup truck.
Ford had such an opportunity here because the Lightning could have been the absolutely, positively go-to EV truck. But they effed it up royally and it remains to be seen if they can salvage it.
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At first I laughed at the design, however, the practicality of its features intrigue me. Tesla also has a devoted following, so I’ll believe the demise when I see it.
The stainless steel body durability will be my biggest concern
I laughed when Apple released the airpods, they weren't better than the other stuff on the market and you had to carry the battery on your pocket in addition to your phone.
Then, slowly, everyone started buying them after the initial flop.
It's not easy to predict consumer trends. The average consumer is an irrational idiot.
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The biggest "hater" on Tesla the last couple days has been Musk, which is pretty funny.
If the Cybertruck ever comes to market, it's hard to see too many contractors and other professionals who actually use their truck for work preferring it to a "real" pickup truck.
Ford had such an opportunity here because the Lightning could have been the absolutely, positively go-to EV truck. But they effed it up royally and it remains to be seen if they can salvage it.
What makes you say Ford effed it up? Or why do you think it hasn't been successful?
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What makes you say Ford effed it up? Or why do you think it hasn't been successful?
First, they were unable to deliver it to dealers. And then the few they delivered weren't able to achieve anywhere near the range that was advertised, especially when towing anything. Lots and lots and lots of truck owners are contractors, landscapers, boat owners, RV owners, ATV owners, etc. They need to be able to tow pretty heavy loads. The Lightning can't do it for very long.
https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/ford-f150-lightning-electric-truck-towing-test/
"The towing range of the electric F-150 is dismal. In MotorTrend testing, an F-150 Lightning Platinum saddled with a camper that nearly maxed out its 8,500-pound towing capacity couldn't even cover 100 miles. Range improved when we hooked up a significantly lighter trailer, but not by as much as you might expect."
Ford had a golden opportunity here - Cybertruck was stuck in neutral for years, and who knows how many will ever be produced - but they effed it up.
I don't know much about Rivians but a guy who owns one just moved into our neighborhood, so I'm gonna ask him a little about how it does in real-world driving. Unlike the Cybertruck, it's not ugly beyond words; and unlike the Lightning, it's actually been on the street for a bit.
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First, they were unable to deliver it to dealers. And then the few they delivered weren't able to achieve anywhere near the range that was advertised, especially when towing anything. Lots and lots and lots of truck owners are contractors, landscapers, boat owners, RV owners, ATV owners, etc. They need to be able to tow pretty heavy loads. The Lightning can't do it for very long.
https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/ford-f150-lightning-electric-truck-towing-test/
"The towing range of the electric F-150 is dismal. In MotorTrend testing, an F-150 Lightning Platinum saddled with a camper that nearly maxed out its 8,500-pound towing capacity couldn't even cover 100 miles. Range improved when we hooked up a significantly lighter trailer, but not by as much as you might expect."
Ford had a golden opportunity here - Cybertruck was stuck in neutral for years, and who knows how many will ever be produced - but they effed it up.
I don't know much about Rivians but a guy who owns one just moved into our neighborhood, so I'm gonna ask him a little about how it does in real-world driving. Unlike the Cybertruck, it's not ugly beyond words; and unlike the Lightning, it's actually been on the street for a bit.
Production issues are 100% on Ford.
The towing issues are not on Ford. Maybe, slightly on Ford, if you consider marketing/PR shortfalls. But towing with any EV is super difficult. When towing, at best, you'll probably only get 50% of max range. Consumers should be told this upfront or know it through their own research.
It's really no different than some EV owners being shocked/surprised when highway or cold weather driving significantly lowers their range.
I contend, beyond production issues, Ford did exactly as expected with an EV truck.
Edit: it's no different than ICE trucks having poor mpg compared to other cars. That mpg reduces further in cold and when towing
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I laughed when Apple released the airpods, they weren't better than the other stuff on the market and you had to carry the battery on your pocket in addition to your phone.
Then, slowly, everyone started buying them after the initial flop.
It's not easy to predict consumer trends. The average consumer is an irrational idiot.
I was gonna say it’s not the best example of that phenomenon, due to the cult of Apple (which I’m a part of though not a giddy release fool like so many), but that probably also applies to Tesla.
It’s funny, I still don’t love AirPods, and I think the newer models are even uglier. But I will say, I have a better wireless pair I use when traveling, but the best part of AirPods are how fast and seamlessly they sync to my iPhone or iPad. It’s been hit or miss otherwise. My wife got a new generation pair of AirPods through work and I use her older ones fairly often cause it’s so quick when I’m not putzing around.
I don't know much about Rivians but a guy who owns one just moved into our neighborhood, so I'm gonna ask him a little about how it does in real-world driving. Unlike the Cybertruck, it's not ugly beyond words; and unlike the Lightning, it's actually been on the street for a bit.
YMMV but of the 3 people I know who have owned a Rivian. 2 of them got rid of them and 1 owns multiple trucks but it’s not a regular usage vehicle for him. They didn’t love them and the cost didn’t justify what they got, in their opinion.
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Production issues are 100% on Ford.
The towing issues are not on Ford. Maybe, slightly on Ford, if you consider marketing/PR shortfalls. But towing with any EV is super difficult. When towing, at best, you'll probably only get 50% of max range. Consumers should be told this upfront or know it through their own research.
It's really no different than some EV owners being shocked/surprised when highway or cold weather driving significantly lowers their range.
I contend, beyond production issues, Ford did exactly as expected with an EV truck.
Hmm
YMMV but of the 3 people I know who have owned a Rivian. 2 of them got rid of them and 1 owns multiple trucks but it’s not a regular usage vehicle for him. They didn’t love them and the cost didn’t justify what they got, in their opinion.
Thanks for the info.
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From the WSJ:
The average individual-investor stock portfolio has risen about 150% since the beginning of 2014, according to investment research firm Vanda Research, which began tracking the data nine years ago. That performance beats the S&P 500’s roughly 140% during the same period. Vanda analyzed individual investors’ brokerage-account trading activity in U.S.-listed single stocks, but excluded ETF and mutual fund purchases as well as transactions made through retirement accounts or investment advisers.
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GM had a horrible earnings report, and is getting hurt badly by the UAW strike. Beyond that, it is proving to be not much of a challenger to Tesla in the EV realm.
From the NYT's DealBook:
G.M. abandoned a goal to build 400,000 electric vehicles by mid-2024, citing slower-than-expected growth in sales. The company, which has bet its future on its E.V. transition, also recently delayed an effort to expand electric pickup production. ...
And finally … the carmaker’s Cruise autonomous vehicle division was kicked out of California. State regulators ordered Cruise to stop its driverless taxi service after a series of traffic mishaps. It’s bad news not only for G.M., which poured $700 million into the division in the most recent quarter, but also for the autonomous vehicle business more broadly.
The other interesting reports after yesterday's market close involved AI. Microsoft has done a much better job out of monetizing it than Google has; MSFT is well up before the bell, and GOOGL is well down.
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GM had a horrible earnings report, and is getting hurt badly by the UAW strike. Beyond that, it is proving to be not much of a challenger to Tesla in the EV realm.
From the NYT's DealBook:
G.M. abandoned a goal to build 400,000 electric vehicles by mid-2024, citing slower-than-expected growth in sales. The company, which has bet its future on its E.V. transition, also recently delayed an effort to expand electric pickup production. ...
And finally … the carmaker’s Cruise autonomous vehicle division was kicked out of California. State regulators ordered Cruise to stop its driverless taxi service after a series of traffic mishaps. It’s bad news not only for G.M., which poured $700 million into the division in the most recent quarter, but also for the autonomous vehicle business more broadly.
The other interesting reports after yesterday's market close involved AI. Microsoft has done a much better job out of monetizing it than Google has; MSFT is well up before the bell, and GOOGL is well down.
It's unfortunate regarding the EV stuff. Especially because, although the sales might be slow, it isn't typically the whole story.
No surprise when you're only making luxury priced vehicles that demand isn't great. Add to that dealers marking up by $10k or more...you get this result.
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It's unfortunate regarding the EV stuff. Especially because, although the sales might be slow, it isn't typically the whole story.
No surprise when you're only making luxury priced vehicles that demand isn't great. Add to that dealers marking up by $10k or more...you get this result.
True.
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Naturally, the market is down premarket because there was too much good news: The economy continues to defy gloom-and-doom predictions, growing at a 4.9% annual rate.
https://apnews.com/article/economy-growth-inflation-gdp-consumers-spending-38dfeeee5f65b138ff98f6885d432865
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Yes, with all the growth and all the jobs, need to fear rate hikes.
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REIT pop?
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231027198/white-house-opens-45-billion-in-federal-funds-to-developers-to-covert-offices-to-homes
$45B in debt facilities offered to RE companies converting commercial to residential. They say it's going to be low rate, but I can't find anything about the rates in a casual look around the internet. IMO the rates will predict whether this program is a success or a flop.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/great-wealth-transfer-isn-t-100000946.html
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/great-wealth-transfer-isn-t-100000946.html
There will be a wealth transfer of a different kind when we boomers start kicking off at a bigly clip. Though this nugget was in the article:
A survey from Alliant Credit Union finds that half of millennials think they’re inheriting at least $350,000 from their parents, while half of boomers report say they’ll give away less than $250,000.
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There will be a wealth transfer of a different kind when we boomers start kicking off at a bigly clip. Though this nugget was in the article:
A survey from Alliant Credit Union finds that half of millennials think they’re inheriting at least $350,000 from their parents, while half of boomers report say they’ll give away less than $250,000.
One thing I focus my practice on is wealth transfer. There will be very large amounts of money changing hands over the next few decades and seeing that a large amount is in pre-tax retirement accounts(roughly 37 trillion). That money will eventually be taxed and with tax rates going up in 2026 with the sunsetting of the tax cuts in the TCJA and the elimination of the lifetime stretch IRA to only 10 years, there will be some serious tax implications for a lot of Americans in the next few decades.
Anyone who is living comfortably in retirement and has excess retirement savings should be looking to see if Roth conversions make sense or possibly if their health allows to buy 2nd-to die life insurance to leverage their dollars and leave their beneficiaries a pile of tax-free money.
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There will be a wealth transfer of a different kind when we boomers start kicking off at a bigly clip. Though this nugget was in the article:
A survey from Alliant Credit Union finds that half of millennials think they’re inheriting at least $350,000 from their parents, while half of boomers report say they’ll give away less than $250,000.
Like everything else they've done in their lives, on this issue Boomers will certainly leave younger generations disappointed.
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Like everything else they've done in their lives, on this issue Boomers will certainly leave younger generations disappointed.
Funny and true.
Also, I think people severely underestimate late life expenses. It's a race to see how fast you can end up on Medicaid.
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Funny and true.
Also, I think people severely underestimate late life expenses. It's a race to see how fast you can end up on Medicaid.
My brother in law’s mother is in a memory care facility, thank God she has awesome insurance to offset a big chunk of the expenses, but rate card is something like $18K a MONTH.
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My brother in law’s mother is in a memory care facility, thank God she has awesome insurance to offset a big chunk of the expenses, but rate card is something like $18K a MONTH.
That's tough to stomach. So many families could not afford that. Additionally, I don't think enough families discuss their financials, the drawdown period of their life, and then costs associated with senior apartment living through end of life care. People really just *hope* they're going to have enough to retire.
Without going into the ~$5-$10k/mo for my grandma's continuing care facility, she had to pay a buy-in fee of something like $200k just to get the opportunity to pay them that $5-$10k/mo. It makes sense that senior living centers don't want to start housing someone that's going to run out of money quickly, but realistically 70%+ of the US can't afford that. It my grandma's place nice? Yeah kinda, but it's not super nice. The nice part is that they have senior apartment living all the way through memory care.
Maybe I don't need that gas station burrito for dinner.
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The cost of taking care of the elderly is crazy and makes me sad. I saw how my Dad lost his will to live when he saw the cost associated with having quality of life care. His last several months were difficult and he was not himself, but he was 100% up to speed on what the care was costing on daily, weekly and monthly basis. He let that consume his thoughts and he lost the drive needed to get stronger.
I have to admit, I just turned 60 earlier this year and I think about getting older and the thought causes me some anxiety. No one wants to be a burden to family and crazy expenses adds additional stress. The older I get the two groups of people I want to help the most are the homeless and the elderly. Both groups are very high in my daily prayers.
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My brother in law’s mother is in a memory care facility, thank God she has awesome insurance to offset a big chunk of the expenses, but rate card is something like $18K a MONTH.
My 93 year old Great Aunt is in assisted living facility and this is the monthly cost.
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That's tough to stomach. So many families could not afford that. Additionally, I don't think enough families discuss their financials, the drawdown period of their life, and then costs associated with senior apartment living through end of life care. People really just *hope* they're going to have enough to retire.
Without going into the ~$5-$10k/mo for my grandma's continuing care facility, she had to pay a buy-in fee of something like $200k just to get the opportunity to pay them that $5-$10k/mo. It makes sense that senior living centers don't want to start housing someone that's going to run out of money quickly, but realistically 70%+ of the US can't afford that. It my grandma's place nice? Yeah kinda, but it's not super nice. The nice part is that they have senior apartment living all the way through memory care.
Maybe I don't need that gas station burrito for dinner.
I'd go higher. I don't think 95% of the US can afford that.
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I'd go higher. I don't think 95% of the US can afford that.
I started looking up stats on median retirement savings per age group and got stressed out for people.
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Lots of money to be made in elder care. Lots of subpar care for the prices charged. Lots of corners being cut. Lots of shareholders being enriched.
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Lots of money to be made in elder care. Lots of subpar care for the prices charged. Lots of corners being cut. Lots of shareholders being enriched.
Management shareholders who have been given shares, yes. It's not been a great many years for stocks for these companies, however, and lots of regular shareholders are underwater on them.
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I agree the % of people who cannot afford proper elderly care is extremely high. $15k+ a month eats up a nest egg pretty quickly, especially with the unknown of how long that care is needed.
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I agree the % of people who cannot afford proper elderly care is extremely high. $15k+ a month eats up a nest egg pretty quickly, especially with the unknown of how long that care is needed.
Well said goose.
They next 20 years are going to be potentially very ugly with the boomers aging out of the population for several reasons
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One problem is that the long-term-care insurance industry sucks. Coverage is outrageously expensive and benefits aren't that great in lots of plans. You can pay in for decades and then only get coverage for 18 months, and even that coverage falls short.
Best is to self-insure, but as lots of folks here are correctly saying, many (probably the majority) can't really afford that, either.
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If folks can afford it, please look into long term care insurance policies. My brother in laws mom has one (as mentioned above she is in memory care for $18K a month), her policy I think covers 70% for the first ten years, then gradually goes down after that.
Her husband who passed a few years back, noticed some cognitive decline a long time ago and added it, and literally made the difference in having a great place for her to have everything she needs.
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jesmu84
I agree that things very possibly can be difficult for those of 60 and older. The last thing anyone wants to be is a burden to their children. When I was a kid that meant having an elderly parent live with their kids, the problem today is much potentially much bigger. I remember my parents always saying that they would never live with one of their kids, I never remember them worrying about the cost of getting older.
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I have attempted, a couple of times, a frank discussion with my parents around their plans for later in life healthcare needs. They are uncomfortable discussing finances and it really is a discussion about finances at the root of it. It opened up a multi-year discussion around my father's comfort with his retirement number and how many more years he wants to work. Their home and when is the right time to downsize. What medicare and the supplements look like for them, and how medicare supplementals lock you in so it's basically a permanent decision. Getting my parent's invested assets moved away from a sheister that was charging him over 1% of his assets per year.
What I thought was going to be a conversation to protect my personal family's financial well being during my parents twilight years turned into a much larger conversation with significant learning (and bonding opportunities) on both sides. I recommend starting to have these convos with your parents (or children) if you haven't already. Just the insight into how my parents think about these things has helped me understand them and their priorities more.
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Skatastrophy
I think it is a difficult discussion, but an important one to have within a family. For me, I am still at an age that I do not want to admit that I am getting close to having that discussion. Right now, the biggest discussion we are having is in regard to downsizing our home. My wife and I are torn on the topic and the grown kids are 100% against the idea. I have definitely let them sway my thinking quite a bit on the topic.
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If you care about your friends/family, do NOT let them get a Medicare advantage plan
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Skatastrophy
I think it is a difficult discussion, but an important one to have within a family. For me, I am still at an age that I do not want to admit that I am getting close to having that discussion. Right now, the biggest discussion we are having is in regard to downsizing our home. My wife and I are torn on the topic and the grown kids are 100% against the idea. I have definitely let them sway my thinking quite a bit on the topic.
Is your kids thinking based in sentimentality or do they have a better reason for wanting you to keep your home?
My wife and I are actually talking about this now, but that will be 100% a decision that the two of us will make because the kids aren't participating in the upkeep.
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I have a worry about my parent's decision to downsize after seeing my grandma's decisioning of... delaying decisions. She kept the home until she couldn't physically upkeep it, and then kept it for three more years. It's emotionally hard to front-run our physical decline in our later years, but seeing my grandma having to suddenly move out of her family home that had fallen into disrepair was heartbreaking and traumatic for her. She couldn't help with moving/downsizing, either, and even her mental faculties made it take 10x longer when she had to decide what she kept and what she got rid of.
I don't know the right time to take action on downsizing. I've moved around so much my whole life it's pretty easy to just move and get rid of stuff, so I don't have much helpful input for my parents. Also, I live in a major urban area with great access to smaller properties and excellent healthcare, whereas my parents like living on their larger property up by Colgate where there's no real healthcare access and grocery stores are miles away. It's hard for them to imaging living somewhere densely populated. I don't know how they're going to deal with moving to senior apartment living, since that's basically dorms for the elderly.
IMO they should get a condo in an elevator building in a walkable neighborhood with plenty of rideshare access to live out the next couple of decades. I feel like they might live on their semi-rural property until something terrible happens, though.
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I have a worry about my parent's decision to downsize after seeing my grandma's decisioning of... delaying decisions. She kept the home until she couldn't physically upkeep it, and then kept it for three more years. It's emotionally hard to front-run our physical decline in our later years, but seeing my grandma having to suddenly move out of her family home that had fallen into disrepair was heartbreaking and traumatic for her. She couldn't help with moving/downsizing, either, and even her mental faculties made it take 10x longer when she had to decide what she kept and what she got rid of.
I don't know the right time to take action on downsizing. I've moved around so much my whole life it's pretty easy to just move and get rid of stuff, so I don't have much helpful input for my parents. Also, I live in a major urban area with great access to smaller properties and excellent healthcare, whereas my parents like living on their larger property up by Colgate where there's no real healthcare access and grocery stores are miles away. It's hard for them to imaging living somewhere densely populated. I don't know how they're going to deal with moving to senior apartment living, since that's basically dorms for the elderly.
IMO they should get a condo in an elevator building in a walkable neighborhood with plenty of rideshare access to live out the next couple of decades. I feel like they might live on their semi-rural property until something terrible happens, though.
My parents were in the exact same situation as yours. They eventually moved into a senior living condo complex. My dad loved it from day one because he was a very social person. My mom took longer but now really does enjoy it, especially since my dad passed a couple of years ago. She's not the most social, but she needs something. Also she has the ability to move into nursing and memory care at the same facility down the road. It is expensive however.
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Sultan and Skatastrophy
I am not sure on your age Sultan, but guessing close to mine and making the downsizing decision has become a more serious one for us. We are both healthy and want to own a home and that is my biggest struggle. We have a nice sized home, not crazy, but it is nearly 100 years old and upkeep is expensive and hard work. We definitely neglected some upkeep over the years due to raising four kids and paying private school education for K-4 through college. We are not playing catch up on the house and is causing some stress.
Our kids are a help around the house when needed and would do more if requested. Truthfully, my wife is 57 and I am 60 and hardly in need of any serious help. All four of the kids love the house and they are now seeing their kids enjoy our house and large yard. Economically, I do not see a major advantage for downsizing and that is my biggest issue.
It is funny that I have three older siblings, all in their 70's, and none of really downsized. One sister sold her lake house and replaced it with two condo's and other two are in the same house over 35 years. That said, I did agree to have a serious discussion on downsizing in the spring.
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Goose, I'm only 55. I agree that the economics don't really favor the downsizing option right now. But my wife is eyeing up a condo complex which looks like any other housing development so our house would be its own "unit." It's more expensive, but the idea of not having to worry about upgrading / fixing the interior, and having someone deal with the exterior, appeals to us.
I've talked myself into the monthly condo fee because it seems more economical than hiring someone to do all the yard work. But the price difference would mean working a couple of extra years. Which I am not opposed to right now - but how will I feel about that in 7-8 years? No idea.
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Sultan,
Sad but true, I think I will be working for another ten years or longer. Partly of it for cashflow and partly because I think I need to stay busy. It is strange but turning 60 really freaked me out. I dreaded it for a year and now trying to make this the best decade of my life. Honestly, time has flown by and I was not mentally prepared to feel comfortable getting older. Just another thing to stress me out, I guess.
Thankfully, I am extremely excited for the MU season and am hoping to enjoy every second of what might be a special season.
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I'm in my early 40s. I've done well for myself, but if I have to suddenly float my parents retirement too it changes my math. My parents aren't great with money which is why I care so much about this. I want them to not be stressed about the whole thing. And I want me to not be angry with them about money in 2 decades because they fumbled their retirement without talking to anyone in the family about it.
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Skatastrophy
The more I read your thoughts, the more I think my family needs to have a discussion sooner than later. It is easy to make bold statement like "I don't us to be a burden to the kids" but that really does not address the topic in a serious manner. Good luck on talking with your parents.
I was lucky my parents were established financially to handle life challenges, but I do not think they had a plan in place in case something crazy would have happened to them. My Mom died quickly at 78 and my Dad had 3-4 bad months and he spent a lot of money for that time and really did not benefit a great deal from it.
Again, good luck with the talk.
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Sultan and Skatastrophy
I am not sure on your age Sultan, but guessing close to mine and making the downsizing decision has become a more serious one for us. We are both healthy and want to own a home and that is my biggest struggle. We have a nice sized home, not crazy, but it is nearly 100 years old and upkeep is expensive and hard work. We definitely neglected some upkeep over the years due to raising four kids and paying private school education for K-4 through college. We are not playing catch up on the house and is causing some stress.
Our kids are a help around the house when needed and would do more if requested. Truthfully, my wife is 57 and I am 60 and hardly in need of any serious help. All four of the kids love the house and they are now seeing their kids enjoy our house and large yard. Economically, I do not see a major advantage for downsizing and that is my biggest issue.
It is funny that I have three older siblings, all in their 70's, and none of really downsized. One sister sold her lake house and replaced it with two condo's and other two are in the same house over 35 years. That said, I did agree to have a serious discussion on downsizing in the spring.
If you’re not ready to downsize your home, I recommend you think about steps you can take to streamline the process in the future. Start going through everything as if you’re ready to move and get rid of stuff. Sold/donated/given to the kids/whatever. Decades in a home leads to so much accumulation, and I’ve seen multiple instances in my family where the need or desire to downsize comes up quickly. Doing some of the work now will save so much stress and time down the road, even if it’s 5 or 10 years.
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Thanks Goose. I have a good relationship with my parents and they've been pretty open about things. I'm just trying to let them know I don't want to take away their agency.
I would have really liked it if my parents initiated these conversations instead of me doing it. Then again, maybe not all adult children care enough about their finances to participate in conversations like this. People are so different.
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drew
Great advice. As I noted, we needed some long overdue work done and that led to disposing of a lot of things in our house this summer. Our walkup attic went from a maze to wide open space. Still a done of "stuff" in the joint but nice strides were made this summer. Maybe that will be my pet project this winter.
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Some really great tips for folks, thanks everyone for sharing.
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Skatastrophy
Very happy to hear that you have done well for yourself. One tip I learned a long time ago from my a very wise man was "if you think you have a lot of money, double it". He was/is a mentor of mine and that advise that stuck with me for 40 years. The older I get, the truer it is.
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My in laws are in their late 60s and still living in the home my MIL grew up in. She has never lived anywhere else (my FIL moved in to live with her and her parents when they got married). It is a massive and ancient house and they do not keep up with basic cleaning, let alone the upkeep. MY MIL has MS and is barely mobile at this point. The house is two stories. There is a chair lift to get my MIL up and down, but even using that is difficult. As a result, she will spend weeks on the second floor without ever coming down. Her doctor's appointments are really the only thing that get her to leave the house. My FIL isn't much better. He's obese and struggles getting up and down the stairs and really isn't strong enough anymore to help my MIL on his own.
We have no idea what their financial situation currently is, all we know is that we have to send money home to them every once in a while because they are behind on one payment or another.
Despite all of this, they categorically refuse to even entertain the idea of moving. We've attempted the conversation dozens of times and it is instantly shut down. I fear it will take my MIL getting severely hurt before they will finally take action and if that happens, I don't know if my wife will forgive her dad.
All that being said, please be willing to have these conversations with your children/parents. It is extremely important and puts a lot of pressure on your loved ones. Try to make it as kind as possible.
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My in laws are in their late 60s and still living in the home my MIL grew up in. She has never lived anywhere else (my FIL moved in to live with her and her parents when they got in). It is a massive and ancient house and do not keep up with basic cleaning, let alone the upkeep. MY MIL has MS and is barely mobile at this point. The house is two stories. There is a chair lift to get my MIL up and down, but even using that is difficult. As a result, she will spend weeks on the second floor without ever coming down. Her doctor's appointments are really the only thing that get her to leave the house. My FIL isn't much better. He's obese and struggles getting up and down the stairs and really isn't strong enough anymore to help my MIL on his own.
We have no idea what their financial situation currently is, all we know is that we have to send money home to them every once in a while because they are behind on one payment or another.
Despite all of this, they categorically refuse to even entertain the idea of moving. We've attempted the conversation dozens of times and it is instantly shut down. I fear it will take my MIL getting severely hurt before they will finally take action and if that happens, I don't know if my wife will forgive her dad.
All that being said, please be willing to have these conversations with your children/parents. It is extremely important and puts a lot of pressure on your loved ones. Try to make it as kind as possible.
This feels way past the point of no return, and I'm sorry for the situation man... that's gotta be tough to deal with.
My parents have been very open and honest about their situation. They have a full plan, but the only thing they haven't planned for is how much stuff they've accumulated as well. They're pretty frugal people, and my mom has always loved to find things... that she doesn't need. I get a text once or twice a month asking me if I need, "X". Answer is always the same... I'm in my 40s and if I need it, I buy it... and I buy quality so it lasts. So it ends up in a basement or a garage never to be looked at again... and of course, my brother and I will have to be the ones to sort through it all one day.
Speaking of which, anyone need a one year old gas grill in the FDL area? :o
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One of the sad things about my old job was responding to 911 calls in the types of homes TAMU describes. Assuming the conversations with children had happened and had no impact. Assuming we were going to be back. Sometimes doing housing reports when the structural integrity was compromised or the living conditions too squalid.
Hang in there, TAMU.
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TAMU
Hang in there. The more I read or hear stories from others it makes me realize that aside from taking care of finances, it is essential to try and keep yourself in the best health possible. I have been very lazy in regards to getting exercise over the past year and that changes today.
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This makes me feel better about investing in all things English.
https://x.com/economics/status/1721858968383828038?s=20
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Disney's earnings, announced after yesterday's close:
(From NYT's DealBook)
A lot was at stake for Bob Iger yesterday in Disney’s hotly anticipated quarterly earnings report. Wall Street, and in particular the activist investor Nelson Peltz, wanted to know how much more disruption was in store for the House of Mouse.
So Iger appeared relieved that the company announced results that pleased investors, including strong growth — and the possibility that perhaps Disney didn’t need a huge shake-up after all. Shares in Disney were up 4 percent in premarket trading.
The numbers:
++ Overall profits more than doubled from a year ago, to $694 million. Revenue rose 5 percent, to $21.2 billion, just shy of analyst estimates.
++ ESPN’s operating income surged 16 percent year-on-year, to $987 million, though its revenue rose about 1 percent during that time.
++ Speaking of which, quarterly streaming losses narrowed to $387 million, while Disney+ added seven million subscribers, offsetting losses elsewhere.
Iger professed more optimism about Disney’s traditional TV business. “Linear is better than many people assumed it would be,” he said. “Doesn’t mean it’s great,” he added, but “we’ve seen some improvement.” It was a notable contrast from comments he made over the summer suggesting that linear assets like the ABC broadcast network may “not be core” to the company. Yesterday’s statements suggested that he was now open to keeping at least some of those operations.
Meanwhile, Iger reiterated that the company was in talks to bring in partners for ESPN “that can add either marketing support, technology support or possibly content support.” (That’s most likely one or more sports leagues.)
Iger also said that the company was cutting more costs. It’s seeking to trim $7.5 billion in expenses, up from a projected $5.5 billion at the beginning of the year. Streaming, which has lost nearly $11 billion since late 2019, is expected to turn a profit by late 2024.
The Disney chief briefly discussed Peltz, who is threatening to renew a fight for seats on the company’s board. “I had a call from him,” Iger said. “But I must say, I don’t have specifics about what Nelson is really after, or what he will ask for.” (Peltz had no comment after the earnings report.)
Shortly after market opening this morning, DIS was at $89, up 5.2%. It is up about 13% from the multi-year low it hit in October.
Disclosure: I own a little bit of DIS in my grandkids' college fund. I do not otherwise own it in my personal portfolio.
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>>Disclosure: I own a little bit of DIS in my grandkids' college fund. I do not otherwise own it in my personal portfolio.
Same, I posted here quite some time ago that I picked up a tiny amount in other accounts. Those purchases are under water, but I'm still bullish LT on this one. Streaming expenses, not ESPN, were and are the problem. I think Igor will sort it out, and meanwhile the rest of the business is doing quite well.
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>>Disclosure: I own a little bit of DIS in my grandkids' college fund. I do not otherwise own it in my personal portfolio.
Same, I posted here quite some time ago that I picked up a tiny amount in other accounts. Those purchases are under water, but I'm still bullish LT on this one. Streaming expenses, not ESPN, were and are the problem. I think Igor will sort it out, and meanwhile the rest of the business is doing quite well.
Agree. I almost bought some at about $80 a couple weeks ago when Douchey said investing in DIS was like throwing one's money away - figuring a Douchey slam was pretty much a guarantee of long-term success, a la AAPL - but I admit I didn't have quite enough confidence to do so. Could buy some in the future if the company has more positive catalysts, and I do plan to gradually grow the position in the grandkids' account.
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So far this quarter, stocks that beat earnings estimates are getting only a bit of a thumbs-up from investors. But stocks that miss estimates are getting creamed far worse than is normally the case.
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2Ftkrowubpxm%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F654c0228098a2-1699480104.0391.jpg&t=1699541999&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1c2e-c6068f01f400&sig=Kw_7sQBSOKUftsdgygL.BQ--~D)
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I’ve been big on uranium for the past 10-12 years and I’ve finally been able to tell my investment dude…SEE!!!!
Been long on cameco since the low $20’s, DNN since pre $1 and URG
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Things are finally looking up for the Foxconn site years after Scott Walker was Foxconned into giving away billions ...
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2023/11/10/microsoft-to-invest-billions-in-racine-county-including-foxconn-site/71427829007/?utm_source=jsonline-dailybriefing-strada&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailybriefing-greeting&utm_term=Content%20List%20-%20Stacking%20-%20optimized&utm_content=pmjs-milwaukee-nletter65
Less than a year after inking a deal to build a $1 billion data center in Mount Pleasant's sprawling Wisconsin Innovation Park, Microsoft is ready to make an even bigger investment and a significant increase in its Wisconsin footprint.
Regional economic development officials on Friday said Microsoft plans to buy the remainder of the parcel on which it is building the first of two previously announced buildings as well as parcels west and north of the site in what's known as Areas II and III in the tax incremental financing district that was created to fund the business park.
Those parcels were controlled by Foxconn, which is giving up options it held on the land. Microsoft will also acquire about 400 acres of privately-owned farmland in Area II.
In all the company would purchase 1,030 additional acres, pending approval by the village and Racine County.
Foxconn sent shockwaves through the state when it announced Wisconsin was among the places the technology giant was considering expanding to in 2017.
The news prompted lawmakers to draft a multi-billion dollar subsidy package in an effort to lure Foxconn to Wisconsin, which the company ultimately accepted.
Foxconn originally promised to build a Generation 10.5 facility that would manufacture large LCD screens. The project was to be an investment of up to $10 billion that would deliver up to 13,000 jobs. Those plans never came together and today the Foxconn operation is much smaller, employing about 1,000 people.
The agreement calls for Microsoft to guarantee an additional property valuation of $1.4 billion by 2028.
“Wisconsin’s strengths in workforce, infrastructure, and educational opportunities make it a great place for Microsoft to invest and grow our cloud services. We thank the Governor for his leadership and look forward to continuing to bring positive economic impact to the state and its residents,” said Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith said in a statement.
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Things are finally looking up for the Foxconn site years after Scott Walker was Foxconned into giving away billions ...
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2023/11/10/microsoft-to-invest-billions-in-racine-county-including-foxconn-site/71427829007/?utm_source=jsonline-dailybriefing-strada&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailybriefing-greeting&utm_term=Content%20List%20-%20Stacking%20-%20optimized&utm_content=pmjs-milwaukee-nletter65
Less than a year after inking a deal to build a $1 billion data center in Mount Pleasant's sprawling Wisconsin Innovation Park, Microsoft is ready to make an even bigger investment and a significant increase in its Wisconsin footprint.
Regional economic development officials on Friday said Microsoft plans to buy the remainder of the parcel on which it is building the first of two previously announced buildings as well as parcels west and north of the site in what's known as Areas II and III in the tax incremental financing district that was created to fund the business park.
Those parcels were controlled by Foxconn, which is giving up options it held on the land. Microsoft will also acquire about 400 acres of privately-owned farmland in Area II.
In all the company would purchase 1,030 additional acres, pending approval by the village and Racine County.
Foxconn sent shockwaves through the state when it announced Wisconsin was among the places the technology giant was considering expanding to in 2017.
The news prompted lawmakers to draft a multi-billion dollar subsidy package in an effort to lure Foxconn to Wisconsin, which the company ultimately accepted.
Foxconn originally promised to build a Generation 10.5 facility that would manufacture large LCD screens. The project was to be an investment of up to $10 billion that would deliver up to 13,000 jobs. Those plans never came together and today the Foxconn operation is much smaller, employing about 1,000 people.
The agreement calls for Microsoft to guarantee an additional property valuation of $1.4 billion by 2028.
“Wisconsin’s strengths in workforce, infrastructure, and educational opportunities make it a great place for Microsoft to invest and grow our cloud services. We thank the Governor for his leadership and look forward to continuing to bring positive economic impact to the state and its residents,” said Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith said in a statement.
Thank you for helping Wisconsin get something out of this boondoggle, Governor Evers.
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Wonder how much had to do with Wisconsin being Nadella’s first stop in the US and some residual fondness for the area
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Wonder how much had to do with Wisconsin being Nadella’s first stop in the US and some residual fondness for the area
Also their President, Brad Smith, grew up in Appleton.
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Also their President, Brad Smith, grew up in Appleton.
Good call, forgot he was the one whose Dad was an exec with Wisconsin Bell, couldn’t remember if that was him or confusing him with one of the other big software guys.
And for those who doubt those elements, it’s not at all uncommon for “tiebreaks” like that for stuff like this. My cousin’s husband used to be fairly high up at Caterpillar and they chose a location for a factory purchase/expansion in Northern Texas because one of the heads of that particular division liked flying to DFW as an American frequent flier and hated some of the popular restaurants in another major metro they were looking at.
My former roommate’s uncle-in-law (;D) was the CEO of a major public traded biotech company. They selected a new R&D location out of 3 or 4 that were all pretty similar cause his wife grew up in the area and he really liked the people from spending time there years prior
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Good call, forgot he was the one whose Dad was an exec with Wisconsin Bell, couldn’t remember if that was him or confusing him with one of the other big software guys.
And for those who doubt those elements, it’s not at all uncommon for “tiebreaks” like that for stuff like this. My cousin’s husband used to be fairly high up at Caterpillar and they chose a location for a factory purchase/expansion in Northern Texas because one of the heads of that particular division liked flying to DFW as an America frequent flier and hated some of the popular restaurants in another major metro they were looking at.
My former roommate’s uncle-in-law (;D) was the CEO of a major public traded biotech company. They selected a new R&D location out of 3 or 4 that were all pretty similar cause his wife grew up in the area and he really liked the people from spending time there years prior
Yep. Microsoft's involvement in this is entirely because Smith grew up a Packer fan.
https://www.titletowntech.com/
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Thank you for helping Wisconsin get something out of this boondoggle, Governor Evers.
Worst governor Evers, aina?
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Mr. Market is smiling big-time after a better-than-expected inflation report.
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Mr. Market is smiling big-time after a better-than-expected inflation report.
Those blaming Biden for the high inflation will, I am certain, now give him credit.
Market is already pricing in rate reductions next year.
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Those blaming Biden for the high inflation will, I am certain, now give him credit.
Market is already pricing in rate reductions next year.
cars are being repossessed at one of the highest rates ever. credit card debt is HIGH. people dipping in to retirement funds, people are struggling to get food on the table, fill their gas tanks, fewer people are being recruited to fill Christmas shopping time period-thanksgiving thru Christmas/new years
not only are "things" more expensive, but you are getting LESS of it
AND, we are running out of coffee
hard to gaslight people over the grumbing of their empty stomachs
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cars are being repossessed at one of the highest rates ever. credit card debt is HIGH. people dipping in to retirement funds, people are struggling to get food on the table, fill their gas tanks, fewer people are being recruited to fill Christmas shopping time period-thanksgiving thru Christmas/new years
not only are "things" more expensive, but you are getting LESS of it
AND, we are running out of coffee
hard to gaslight people over the grumbing of their empty stomachs
I assume you exclusively blame 3 years of Biden admin policies for all the things you listed?
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cars are being repossessed at one of the highest rates ever. credit card debt is HIGH. people dipping in to retirement funds, people are struggling to get food on the table, fill their gas tanks, fewer people are being recruited to fill Christmas shopping time period-thanksgiving thru Christmas/new years
not only are "things" more expensive, but you are getting LESS of it
AND, we are running out of coffee
hard to gaslight people over the grumbing of their empty stomachs
8 out of 10
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From the Wall Street Journal:
Inflation’s broad slowdown extended through October. Consumer prices overall were flat last month and rose 3.2% from a year earlier, a slower pace than in September, the Labor Department said.
Increases in so-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items, also continued cooling, indicating underlying price pressures are easing. Core inflation is often viewed as a better predictor of inflation’s future trajectory than the overall numbers.
The string of lower readings is moving closer to what Fed officials said would be necessary to convince them to stop raising rates. The central bank brought them to a 22-year high in July to combat inflation by slowing economic activity. Since then, the Fed has paused increases and is very likely to do so again at its December meeting.
The inflation data sent U.S. stocks and bonds soaring.
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I assume you exclusively blame 3 years of Biden admin policies for all the things you listed?
yes, pretty much so
if you want to compare numbers with pre & post ice cream breath, i've got my popcorn, mixed nuts, cheese & crackers, chips & dip, and a couple of cold na brewski's going. let me know when you're ready to show me your slide show.
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yes, pretty much so
if you want to compare numbers with pre & post ice cream breath, i've got my popcorn, mixed nuts, cheese & crackers, chips & dip, and a couple of cold na brewski's going. let me know when you're ready to show me your slide show.
5.5 out of 10
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yes, pretty much so
if you want to compare numbers with pre & post ice cream breath, i've got my popcorn, mixed nuts, cheese & crackers, chips & dip, and a couple of cold na brewski's going. let me know when you're ready to show me your slide show.
So none of the things you listed were going on before he took office?
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yes, pretty much so
if you want to compare numbers with pre & post ice cream breath, i've got my popcorn, mixed nuts, cheese & crackers, chips & dip, and a couple of cold na brewski's going. let me know when you're ready to show me your slide show.
You do realize that the stock market isn't the economy, right?
Despite inheriting the biggest economic mess any president handed his successor in nearly a century, Biden's economy has been resilient and improving for 3 years. Record employment, growing GDP, solid union gains, infrastructure being built, etc.
And all of that - as well as a market back near its all-time high - has been accomplished in a rising-rate environment.
The 91-felony Criminal Defendant you worship was the only modern president ever to see a reduction in U.S. employment during his tenure. He promised to save manufacturing jobs but failed. He promised to repeal and replace the ACA but failed. He said his trade war with China would be "easy to win" but he failed so bigly that he had to start a new welfare program for U.S. farmers who were being killed by it. When he left office - only after fomenting a failed coup attempt against his own country - the American economy was in shambles.
But hey, at least your hero got a few feet of wall built - for which Mexico paid $0.00.
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So none of the things you listed were going on before he took office?
It's what he's been told. He doesn't have the intelligence to actually develop thoughts on his own.
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You do realize that the stock market isn't the economy, right?
Despite inheriting the biggest economic mess any president handed his successor in nearly a century, Biden's economy has been resilient and improving for 3 years. Record employment, growing GDP, solid union gains, infrastructure being built, etc.
And all of that - as well as a market back near its all-time high - has been accomplished in a rising-rate environment.
Brother MU:
With all due respect to the sitting President, Daffy Duck could have been elected and presided over an improving and resiliant economy. Our 2020 economic problems were not the result of the then President, but rather the fact that we all but locked the country down in 2020. There was enormous pent up demand for goods and services going into 2021 and whomever had been elected President would have benefitted from it.
You and I can argue about today's inflation and high interest rates forever. Both of us will have good points. But the reality is that much of the inflation has been caused by the stimulus programs during the Covid-19 pandemic, which put trillions of new dollars into circulation without any real economic growth. Add to that an inflationary infrastructure program that was more porky than Porky Pig and you end up with inflation we haven't seen since I was at Marquette.
The electorate, as we all know, votes its pocketbook. While you're right that more people are workling than ever before and unemployment is at historical lows, people are working harder and earning less in real terms. That's the irritating factor that's got the President in trouble and the Cheeto on the move.
As a final thought, the economic problem in 2020 was caused, as I noted, by Covid-19. Not sure if you lived through the late 1970s but that one made this environment look like a Sunday walk in the park. 2008 was no picnic either.
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You and I can argue about today's inflation and high interest rates forever. Both of us will have good points. But the reality is that much of the inflation has been caused by the stimulus programs during the Covid-19 pandemic, which put trillions of new dollars into circulation without any real economic growth. Add to that an inflationary infrastructure program that was more porky than Porky Pig and you end up with inflation we haven't seen since I was at Marquette.
You are right about the cause of inflation. But it has decreased substantially over the last 12 months. And what do you mean by "any real economic growth?" Real GDP has increased the last five quarters - the third quarter in 2023 it increased at an annual rate of nearly 5%.
The electorate, as we all know, votes its pocketbook. While you're right that more people are workling than ever before and unemployment is at historical lows, people are working harder and earning less in real terms. That's the irritating factor that's got the President in trouble and the Cheeto on the move.
I'm not sure if they are working "harder," but you are right in that in 2022 they took home less in real terms. I would like to see what 2023 looks like though because inflation has eased.
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Brother MU:
With all due respect to the sitting President, Daffy Duck could have been elected and presided over an improving and resiliant economy. Our 2020 economic problems were not the result of the then President, but rather the fact that we all but locked the country down in 2020. There was enormous pent up demand for goods and services going into 2021 and whomever had been elected President would have benefitted from it.
You and I can argue about today's inflation and high interest rates forever. Both of us will have good points. But the reality is that much of the inflation has been caused by the stimulus programs during the Covid-19 pandemic, which put trillions of new dollars into circulation without any real economic growth. Add to that an inflationary infrastructure program that was more porky than Porky Pig and you end up with inflation we haven't seen since I was at Marquette.
The electorate, as we all know, votes its pocketbook. While you're right that more people are workling than ever before and unemployment is at historical lows, people are working harder and earning less in real terms. That's the irritating factor that's got the President in trouble and the Cheeto on the move.
As a final thought, the economic problem in 2020 was caused, as I noted, by Covid-19. Not sure if you lived through the late 1970s but that one made this environment look like a Sunday walk in the park. 2008 was no picnic either.
Which stimulus programs?
Which Biden policies have caused people to work harder but earn less?
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Brother MU:
With all due respect to the sitting President, Daffy Duck could have been elected and presided over an improving and resiliant economy. Our 2020 economic problems were not the result of the then President, but rather the fact that we all but locked the country down in 2020. There was enormous pent up demand for goods and services going into 2021 and whomever had been elected President would have benefitted from it.
You and I can argue about today's inflation and high interest rates forever. Both of us will have good points. But the reality is that much of the inflation has been caused by the stimulus programs during the Covid-19 pandemic, which put trillions of new dollars into circulation without any real economic growth. Add to that an inflationary infrastructure program that was more porky than Porky Pig and you end up with inflation we haven't seen since I was at Marquette.
The electorate, as we all know, votes its pocketbook. While you're right that more people are workling than ever before and unemployment is at historical lows, people are working harder and earning less in real terms. That's the irritating factor that's got the President in trouble and the Cheeto on the move.
As a final thought, the economic problem in 2020 was caused, as I noted, by Covid-19. Not sure if you lived through the late 1970s but that one made this environment look like a Sunday walk in the park. 2008 was no picnic either.
I agree with much of what you say here.
It's kind of like the tax cut of 2017 - any of the 8,064 GOP presidential candidates of 2016 would have signed that. It was hardly a big accomplishment by the sitting president at the time, and yet it is his signature economic accomplishment. (By far his biggest overall accomplishment IMHO was Operation Warp Speed, which helped get life-saving Covid vaccinations into Americans' arms; but in many ways he sullied his own accomplishment by caving into the anti-vax wingnut faction.) Otherwise, anything he actually had to work to get passed ... failed. Maybe if the draft dodger hadn't repeatedly criticized a legit war hero, he wouldn't have gotten that thumbs-down on the ACA repeal.
And of course Covid caused a ton of havoc. The previous president couldn't have handled the pandemic worse than he did - burning up the playbook he had been left, lying constantly about the severity of the situation, suggesting that humans could be injected with disinfectant, ramping up anti-Asian bigotry, saying something one minute and contradicting himself the next. Even those who blame it all on Fauci ... well, who appointed Fauci? Who stuck with Fauci? ("I only hire the best people!") In the end, the Criminal Defendant's horrific handling of the pandemic cost him his job.
If the current economic malaise (if it really is a malaise) is all the current president's fault, everything that happened due to the pandemic is all the previous president's fault, right?
Obviously, intelligent people know that what I said in the previous paragraph isn't true. The president of the United States isn't responsible for the economy. Indeed, most economists would argue that the president doesn't have a whole lot to do with it - and has even less to do with the stock market's rise and fall. I mean, was Barack Obama an economic genius? The stock market had a remarkable 8-year run under his watch.
Biden wouldn't be my first, second or third choice if I could pick a president from an open field of candidates. Still, thank goodness we have a president who actually cares about Americans.
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Meanwhile, back to investing ...
DIS up about 17% since Douchey dared anybody to buy it.
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The electorate, as we all know, votes its pocketbook. While you're right that more people are workling than ever before and unemployment is at historical lows, people are working harder and earning less in real terms. That's the irritating factor that's got the President in trouble and the Cheeto on the move.
I'm not sure if they are working "harder," but you are right in that in 2022 they took home less in real terms. I would like to see what 2023 looks like though because inflation has eased.
Quite interesting the theme now is "people working harder, earning less" whereas in 2021/2022 the theme was "no one wants to work, being paid $18/hour to sling fries".
Like the weather on an island, stand around long enough and it will change. Dramatically.
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This is a bad economy? Really?
GDP is so high, the Government is trying to slow it down.
Anyone who wants a job can get one.
Okay, inflation was running pretty high, but it has come down drastically. If you're still griping about inflation, you're too focused on the problem we had last year.
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Not everyone can afford to invest in stock market. Many many many middle class struggling with every day needs, rent gas food energy. They are spending all of their money on “life stuff”. Depleting their savings, preventing many from buying homes, having their cars repossessed running CC debt up, dipping into retirement savings etc etc rents for apartments are way up, can’t afford basics
You guys are out of touch with people who have less than most of us
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Not everyone can afford to invest in stock market. Many many many middle class struggling with every day needs, rent gas food energy. They are spending all of their money on “life stuff”. Depleting their savings, preventing many from buying homes, having their cars repossessed running CC debt up, dipping into retirement savings etc etc rents for apartments are way up, can’t afford basics
You guys are out of touch with people who have less than most of us
You're so, so, so close to the answers here
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Which stimulus programs?
Which Biden policies have caused people to work harder but earn less?
You seem to ask a lot of questions to things that are obvious if you are paying attention. Within hour one of his presidency he signed a number of orders that set the tone and the dominos started to fall. It wasn’t an accident. All the regulations, clean blah blah if you know how our economy works…
we are about to have to spend $540+ BILLION dollars on illegal immigrants. Director Wray just told us this morning our country is under more duress than ever from outside threats due to bidens open border. Umm walls do work ya know they use them all the time for themselves
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You're so, so, so close to the answers here
Well then bring it on home jes!
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You seem to ask a lot of questions to things that are obvious if you are paying attention. Within hour one of his presidency he signed a number of orders that set the tone and the dominos started to fall. It wasn’t an accident. All the regulations, clean blah blah if you know how our economy works…
we are about to have to spend $540+ BILLION dollars on illegal immigrants. Director Wray just told us this morning our country is under more duress than ever from outside threats due to bidens open border. Umm walls do work ya know they use them all the time for themselves
Why respond if you aren’t going to bother answer the questions?
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Well then bring it on home jes!
With regards to the financial/economic struggles of those "who have less than most of us", I'll give you a hint - it largely has nothing to do with any single president/person.
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Not everyone can afford to invest in stock market. Many many many middle class struggling with every day needs, rent gas food energy. They are spending all of their money on “life stuff”. Depleting their savings, preventing many from buying homes, having their cars repossessed running CC debt up, dipping into retirement savings etc etc rents for apartments are way up, can’t afford basics
You guys are out of touch with people who have less than most of us
People just need to pull themselves up their boot straps, and stop depending on the government and politicians to solve all their problems for them.
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we are about to have to spend $540+ BILLION dollars on illegal immigrants. Director Wray just told us this morning our country is under more duress than ever from outside threats due to bidens open border. Umm walls do work ya know they use them all the time for themselves
$540 BILLION is an incorrect figure.
They're not illegal immigrants.
The border isn't open.
Wray didn't blame Biden.
Your ability to get so many facts wrong in such few words is truly impressive.
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$540 BILLION is an incorrect figure.
They're not illegal immigrants.
The border isn't open.
Wray didn't blame Biden.
Your ability to get so many facts wrong in such few words is truly impressive.
Is it?
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Not everyone can afford to invest in stock market. Many many many middle class struggling with every day needs, rent gas food energy. They are spending all of their money on “life stuff”. Depleting their savings, preventing many from buying homes, having their cars repossessed running CC debt up, dipping into retirement savings etc etc rents for apartments are way up, can’t afford basics
You guys are out of touch with people who have less than most of us
None of these problems have ever existed until January, 2021.
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From the NYT morning brief:
A new economics
A then-obscure think tank named the Roosevelt Institute released a report in 2015 that called for a new approach to economic policy. It was unabashedly progressive, befitting the history of the institute, which was created by trusts honoring Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt.
The report called for higher taxes on the rich, a higher minimum wage, more regulation of Wall Street, more support for labor unions, more aggressive antitrust enforcement and more government investment in economic growth. National news outlets covered the report while also noting how much of a break it represented with decades of economic policy by both the Democratic and Republican Parties. There was ample reason to be skeptical that much would change.
But much has changed in the past eight years.
President Biden has enacted the biggest government investment programs in decades, two of which — in infrastructure and semiconductor development — received bipartisan support. Both the Biden and Trump administrations showed more interest in antitrust policy than their predecessors. Many states, blue and red, have increased their minimum wages. American workers have become more interested in unionizing, and labor unions in both the auto industry and Hollywood have recently won big victories. Even some Republican politicians speak positively about unions.
“It’s very surprising this all happened,” Felicia Wong, the longtime president of the Roosevelt Institute, told me. “For a long time, those of us who have been arguing for it were on the outside looking in.”
In today’s newsletter, I want to consider two questions: What explains the shift toward what Wong and her colleagues call (in a new report, released today) a New Economics? And is that shift likely to continue?
Unmet promises
The simplest explanation for the shift is that the old economic approach hasn’t worked very well for most Americans. Starting in the 1980s, the U.S. moved toward an economic policy that’s variously described as laissez-faire, neoliberal or market-friendly. It involved much lower taxes for the wealthy, less regulation of business, an expansion of global trade, a crackdown on labor unions and an acceptance of very large corporations.
The people selling this policy — like Milton Friedman, a Nobel laureate in economics — promised that it would bring prosperity for all. It has not.
Incomes for the bottom 90 percent of workers, as ranked by their earnings, have trailed economic growth, and wealth inequality has soared. For years, Americans have told pollsters that they were unhappy with the country’s direction. Perhaps most starkly, the U.S. now has the lowest life expectancy of any affluent country; in 1980, American life expectancy was typical.
Conventional wisdom rarely changes quickly. Friedman and his fellow laissez-faire intellectuals spent decades on the fringes, before the 1970s oil crisis and other economic problems caused many Americans to embrace their approach. But conventional wisdom can change eventually. And after decades of unmet promises about the benefits of a neoliberal economy, more people have grown skeptical of it recently.
Donald Trump also played a crucial role. He won the Republican nomination in 2016 while defending Social Security and Medicare and criticizing free trade and high immigration, two pillars of neoliberalism. By doing so, he proved that even many Republican voters had drifted from the views of Ronald Reagan and Paul Ryan.
As president, Trump often contradicted his own populist rhetoric. (His one big piece of legislation was a tax cut that mostly benefited the rich.) But he shattered so many basic norms of governance that Democrats came to think they too could discard long-held beliefs. As Neera Tanden, who is now Biden’s top domestic policy adviser, said to me in 2018, “Donald Trump has widened the aperture for policy discussions in the United States.”
Still vulnerable
Where does the New Economics go from here?
For all the progress it has made, the movement remains far from its biggest goals. In many ways, Americans are still living in the Reagan era. Taxes on the rich remain low. Corporations are much larger than in the past, and they can often prevent workers from forming unions even when most employees at a work site want to join one. Many progressive proposals, like universal pre-K, remain dreams.
In the short term, the biggest question is probably whether Biden can win re-election, given Trump’s lack of a consistent economic policy. One threat to Biden’s re-election is voters’ unhappiness with the economy’s recent performance, especially inflation.
Today’s high prices are mostly not Biden’s fault, as my colleague German Lopez has explained; inflation has also been a problem in other countries, related to Covid disruptions, the war in Ukraine and other factors. But Biden has failed to persuade voters that he is sufficiently focused on high prices, and they give his overall economic policy much lower marks than they give his specific policies, like the investments in infrastructure and semiconductors.
For all these reasons, the New Economics both has made surprising progress over the past decade and remains vulnerable to reversal.
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Not everyone can afford to invest in stock market. Many many many middle class struggling with every day needs, rent gas food energy. They are spending all of their money on “life stuff”. Depleting their savings, preventing many from buying homes, having their cars repossessed running CC debt up, dipping into retirement savings etc etc rents for apartments are way up, can’t afford basics
You guys are out of touch with people who have less than most of us
Brother Rocket:
Think again. If you have a 401(k), IRA or SEP plan, you are invested in the stock market. If you have a Defined Benefit pension plan, you probably are invested in the stock market. Some of the largest corporate debt and equity holders in the United States are pension funds and mutual funds that are supported with retirement dollars. That "corporate greed" that too many people wail about is what's funding a good portion of their retirement.
That said, there are some here who think the economy is "improving" and that the sitting President will be the beneficiary. Perhaps, but let's examine for a moment why the Cheeto is running neck and neck with the sitting President. First, is interest rates. Eighteen months ago, I bought a new home with the proceeds from properties I owned in Illinois and Florida. Chase offered me a competitive rate of 3.125 percent for a five-year ballloon mortgage. That same mortgage today has close to an 8.00 percent coupon rate. Young adults like my daughter, who are saving for their first, or second home, either have to wait or purchase far less home than they would have purchased just 18 short months ago.
My son a few years back purchased a new automobile. His credit union offered him a five-year loan for 2.00 percent. The rate on that car loan today would be closer to 7.00 percent.
President Biden would advocate to no end for lower interest rates and he's not the reason rates are where they are. But people blame the sitting President. Period. They just do.
Second, down here in Florida, regular grade gasoline prices were $1.79 to $1.99 per gallon when the sitting President took office. They're now $3.05 to $3.21 a gallon. We're not New York City or Chicago. People drive down here to get where they are going. That extra dolllar a gallon, even with more efficient automobiles, hurts. People see that everyday and somehow think the Cheeto might lower gasoline prices. They blame the sitting President.
Third is grocery prices. Again, inflation may be tapering off but the ability to adjust for it in wages is lagging. It will happen, but it takes time and people become aggravated. They blame the sitting President, no matter who he is.
For those of you who were around in the 1970s, look at what happened in 1979. Jimmy Carter was chased from office largely because of Paul Volecker. Chairman Volecker stopped inflation by essentially choking the money supply. We whipped inflation but President Carter paid the price, deservingly or not. President Bush paid the same price for a recession in 1992 and even John McCain paid the price for the economic downturn in 2008 (as in, there's no damn way were electing a Republican in this mess).
I concur with many of you who believe the President's direct effect on the economy is comparatively modest in relation to how most Americans hold him accountable. In President Biden's case, the Porky Pig infrastructure bill and some of the energy/climate initiatives undoubtedly are inflationary, as was his unwavering support for the UAW during the Big-3 strike. But those are relatively modest compared to the costs of raw materials, capital investment costs, wars and unsettled global matters that are well beyond U.S. control. Look, for example, at the impact of the Middle East Oil Embargo of 1973 and the subsequent formation of the OPEC Cartel on inflation in the United States. It was ridiculous!
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Think again. If you have a 401(k), IRA or SEP plan, you are invested in the stock market. If you have a Defined Benefit pension plan, you probably are invested in the stock market. Some of the largest corporate debt and equity holders in the United States are pension funds and mutual funds that are supported with retirement dollars. That "corporate greed" that too many people wail about is what's funding a good portion of their retirement.
The best decision the "corporate greedy" ever made was to replace pensions with retirement plans and make every American's survival dependent on their middle-class-eradicating levels of success.
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The best decision the "corporate greedy" ever made was to replace pensions with retirement plans and make every American's survival dependent on their middle-class-eradicating levels of success.
Brother Burrow:
Yes and no. For most of us, particularly when we were young, one had to stay at at employer for at least five years to be vested in a pension. Leave and you either can wait until you are 65 and collect a very small pension or move somewhere else and start over. The alleged benefit of 401(k)s and IRAs to the employee was portability. Once you were vested, you could take your the vested portion of it, which in my case, was very small.
The real benefit of portability was the ability to move around from job to job. So, if you had an employer who was shafting you, an employee could move somewhere else and continue on whatever retirement program he or she had. In my case, I eventually had a financial advisor who consolidated all of my 401(ks) into one managed SEP.
Ultrimately, the problem with defined benefit pensions was that companies were recapturing overfunding in pensions or were facing underfunding problems like those that confront the State of Illinois. In Illinois, the public pension deficit for state and local government probably is more than $200 billion. And neither Mayor Brandon or Governor Rich Boy are dealing with it. In the private sector, one would bankrupt the company and turn the obligation over to the government through the PGIF. Or, form LLCs out the ying-yang and move valuable assets into the LLCs, then declare bankruptcy.
Case in point: When Delta Air Lines was on the verge of bankruptcy, dozens and dozens of its senior pilots retired and took a lump-sum pension payout. The payout was designed to avoid losing benefits during the bankruptcy. The result for Delta was hundreds of profitable, long-haul international flights were cancelled because they didn't have enough pilots qualified on 767s, 777s, A330s and similar aircraft.
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Brother Rocket:
Think again. If you have a 401(k), IRA or SEP plan, you are invested in the stock market. If you have a Defined Benefit pension plan, you probably are invested in the stock market. Some of the largest corporate debt and equity holders in the United States are pension funds and mutual funds that are supported with retirement dollars. That "corporate greed" that too many people wail about is what's funding a good portion of their retirement.
That said, there are some here who think the economy is "improving" and that the sitting President will be the beneficiary. Perhaps, but let's examine for a moment why the Cheeto is running neck and neck with the sitting President. First, is interest rates. Eighteen months ago, I bought a new home with the proceeds from properties I owned in Illinois and Florida. Chase offered me a competitive rate of 3.125 percent for a five-year ballloon mortgage. That same mortgage today has close to an 8.00 percent coupon rate. Young adults like my daughter, who are saving for their first, or second home, either have to wait or purchase far less home than they would have purchased just 18 short months ago.
My son a few years back purchased a new automobile. His credit union offered him a five-year loan for 2.00 percent. The rate on that car loan today would be closer to 7.00 percent.
President Biden would advocate to no end for lower interest rates and he's not the reason rates are where they are. But people blame the sitting President. Period. They just do.
Second, down here in Florida, regular grade gasoline prices were $1.79 to $1.99 per gallon when the sitting President took office. They're now $3.05 to $3.21 a gallon. We're not New York City or Chicago. People drive down here to get where they are going. That extra dolllar a gallon, even with more efficient automobiles, hurts. People see that everyday and somehow think the Cheeto might lower gasoline prices. They blame the sitting President.
Third is grocery prices. Again, inflation may be tapering off but the ability to adjust for it in wages is lagging. It will happen, but it takes time and people become aggravated. They blame the sitting President, no matter who he is.
For those of you who were around in the 1970s, look at what happened in 1979. Jimmy Carter was chased from office largely because of Paul Volecker. Chairman Volecker stopped inflation by essentially choking the money supply. We whipped inflation but President Carter paid the price, deservingly or not. President Bush paid the same price for a recession in 1992 and even John McCain paid the price for the economic downturn in 2008 (as in, there's no damn way were electing a Republican in this mess).
I concur with many of you who believe the President's direct effect on the economy is comparatively modest in relation to how most Americans hold him accountable. In President Biden's case, the Porky Pig infrastructure bill and some of the energy/climate initiatives undoubtedly are inflationary, as was his unwavering support for the UAW during the Big-3 strike. But those are relatively modest compared to the costs of raw materials, capital investment costs, wars and unsettled global matters that are well beyond U.S. control. Look, for example, at the impact of the Middle East Oil Embargo of 1973 and the subsequent formation of the OPEC Cartel on inflation in the United States. It was ridiculous!
dogies-excellent summation, but repsectfully, what you are overlooking is the fact that middle class people cannot afford to invest in the market. they don't have any money left after paying their living expenses. yes, many of the middle class may be working for a company who contributes to a plan, but i will bet you dollars to credit card interest rates, they would rather take that money home with them. they are scratching and clawing for everything they can get to pay for gas, food and bills
without trying to be redundant, just look at the car repossession rates and the delinquency rates
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Good comments dgies. You're right to call out the leverage that a pension system can give employers over an employee. As you mention, that has a big impact on portability. In addition, I'd be the first to complain about how a company going under (whether through shell gaming assets/liabilities or more legitimate business disruption) can screw folks relying on a pension. In the latter case, I'd be yelling some sarcastic version of "just pay people and then they don't have to depend on their old employer's solvency for the rest of their lives." We see some of that issue in employee ownership structures.
I do think we have a problem in that regular people are invested in the market for subsistence and are reliant in short term gains to their long term detriment vis-a-vis the very upper class. But you're probably right the employment compensation level is not where to try to solve that.
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dogies-excellent summation, but repsectfully, what you are overlooking is the fact that middle class people cannot afford to invest in the market. they don't have any money left after paying their living expenses. yes, many of the middle class may be working for a company who contributes to a plan, but i will bet you dollars to credit card interest rates, they would rather take that money home with them. they are scratching and clawing for everything they can get to pay for gas, food and bills
without trying to be redundant, just look at the car repossession rates and the delinquency rates
Hate to inject some facts, but household spending power is pretty much back to prepandemic levels.
https://www.primerica.com/public/household-budget-index.html
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Hate to inject some facts, but household spending power is pretty much back to prepandemic levels.
https://www.primerica.com/public/household-budget-index.html
Yeah, I know that rocket is all in on "Biden is destroying the economy," but it ignores that there have been significant reductions in inflation over the last 12 months.
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Hate to inject some facts, but household spending power is pretty much back to prepandemic levels.
https://www.primerica.com/public/household-budget-index.html
Maybe, and nobody said it isn't. But it's buying a whole lot less. That aggravates people and causes them to blame the President.
The Cheeto is playing on this issue, big time.
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Maybe, and nobody said it isn't. But it's buying a whole lot less. That aggravates people and causes them to blame the President.
No, it's not buying "a whole lot less." That's the point of that analysis. It measures buying power, and buying power is nearly at the same level today as it was three years ago.
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No, it's not buying "a whole lot less." That's the point of that analysis. It measures buying power, and buying power is nearly at the same level today as it was three years ago.
have you looked at the packaging of "stuff" it's called "shrinkflation"
www.delish.com/food-news/a45724153/shrinkflation-food-getting-smaller/
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have you looked at the packaging of "stuff" it's called "shrinkflation"
www.delish.com/food-news/a45724153/shrinkflation-food-getting-smaller/
And there is no blame for that phenomenon outside of the corporations that are doing it to increase profits.
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have you looked at the packaging of "stuff" it's called "shrinkflation"
www.delish.com/food-news/a45724153/shrinkflation-food-getting-smaller/
(https://api.time.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Food-company-income.jpg?quality=85&w=900)
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And there is no blame for that phenomenon outside of the corporations that are doing it to increase profits.
yes and no-except for the fact that some have been forced to increase their employee salaries in order to keep and maintain good workers. rising fuel costs is a big killer, especially if the trend lasts longer than expected
otherwise there could be some gouging occurring as well-another-can't let a good crisis go to waste moment
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yes and no-except for the fact that some have been forced to increase their employee salaries in order to keep and maintain good workers. rising fuel costs is a big killer, especially if the trend lasts longer than expected
otherwise there could be some gouging occurring as well-another-can't let a good crisis go to waste moment
Luckily, health care, dental care in particular has not gone up in the last few years.
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(https://api.time.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Food-company-income.jpg?quality=85&w=900)
hope you invested in these companies cuz i missed it and glad i did-i'd fire my "wealth" advisor
kraft-heinz stock-11/30/2018-$51.12 today $33.81
cal-maine $47.04 $49.79
conagra $33.19 $28.08
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Luckily, health care, dental care in particular has not gone up in the last few years.
no, but dental insurance companies are still making a killing
not to mention hygiene salaries have f' ing skyrocketed from $30-35/hour to as high as $80/hour or more with stipends and extras thrown in
we CANNOT raise our hygiene fees to cover while insurance companies just laugh at us
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No, it's not buying "a whole lot less." That's the point of that analysis. It measures buying power, and buying power is nearly at the same level today as it was three years ago.
Brother Pakuni:
Candidly, that analysis makes no sense.
The mood of the country tends to support the notion that we may be spending more, but we don't have purchasing power parity. At least not yet. How else would you explain the general irritation about the economy?
If we had parity, our sitting president would be among the most popular ever. He's not -- by a long shot. The fact that he's running even with the Cheeto in four of the five battleground states suggests there's still a sour mood about how the everyday American's economic fortunes have decreased.
Income increases tends to lag price increases. That's been evident in past inflationary times and is one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve squeezed the money supply in 1979 -- to stop the ongoing inflation cycle caused by rising prices and rising wages. I'm sure the never-ending cycle of price and wage increases was a factor in the Federal Researve's decisions about interest rates in 2022 and 2023.
The UAW settlement notwithstanding, I question whether income and prices have kept pace. I also have grave concerns about the economy in the coming two years due to the current interest rate environment's impact on three-to-seven year balloon mortgages on commercial debt coming due (most of which were written in the hgih "3s" and "4s" and are now repricing to the "7s" and "8s" with limited improvement in underlying income). Add to that the commercial real estate defaults in our major urban areas across the United States coupled with banks that are facing significant margin compression and you have the stew for a recession in 2024 or 2025.
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Brother Pakuni:
Candidly, that analysis makes no sense.
The mood of the country tends to support the notion that we may be spending more, but we don't have purchasing power parity. At least not yet. How else would you explain the general irritation about the economy?
The stat that Pakuni shared literally shows that we have purchasing power parity. That's exactly what it measures.
The general irritation is around a couple things IMO. First, simply achieving where we were before is a nice trend, but its not progress by definition. Second, perceptions about economic performance tend to lag the numbers.
We will see where things go in the next six to nine months.
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Right, both are true: the numbers show we are at purchasing parity, and people aren't feeling it yet.
I continue to believe the Fed has overshot. We are seeing interest rates start to come down because consumer demand is dropping. Rate CUTS are already baked into next year's economic forecast by many of the big houses, yet the Fed is still making noises about another possible increase.
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Right, both are true: the numbers show we are at purchasing parity, and people aren't feeling it yet.
I continue to believe the Fed has overshot. We are seeing interest rates start to come down because consumer demand is dropping. Rate CUTS are already baked into next year's economic forecast by many of the big houses, yet the Fed is still making noises about another possible increase.
I agree with you about the Federal Reserve. The shape of the Treasury Yield Curve further supports your view about market interest rates. I think the real estate community (residential and commercial) is praying every day that we're right. Ditto for bankers and just about anyone else who relies on leverage.
Bankers are especially concerned given the increase in Accumulated Other Comprehensice Income ("AOCI") on bank balance sheets. AOCI is the adjustment in GAAP equity for debt securities losses in the "available for sale" portfolio. About 2.75 years ago, this was a premium and it's now systemwide about $370 billion underwater!
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"Biden wouldn't be my first, second or third choice if I could pick a president from an open field of candidates. Still, thank goodness we have a president who actually cares about Americans."
His approval ratin's have hit rock bottom. Can't exit stage left or right. Has released another $10 billon to Iran. Oh, and speakin' of crooks...
Shirley, even the most blue of the donkeys, can't be happy with the BOTUS. And, now we have MO and Gavin warmin' up in the bullpen, aina?
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"Biden wouldn't be my first, second or third choice if I could pick a president from an open field of candidates. Still, thank goodness we have a president who actually cares about Americans."
His approval ratin's have hit rock bottom. Can't exit stage left or right. Has released another $10 billon to Iran. Oh, and speakin' of crooks...
Shirley, even the most blue of the donkeys, can't be happy with the BOTUS. And, now we have MO and Gavin warmin' up in the bullpen, aina?
I am not a Biden fan but its a matter of choice between two options and he is much better than the likely alternative. Its how he got elected in the first place.
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If Biden were to be the nominee, any vote he receives, is a vote for Harris, aka BOTUS#2, aina?
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If Trump is the nominee, any vote for him is for the end of the American experiment, for strongman fascism.
Give me Harris.
#project2025
# redCaesar
#trumpparaphrasingmeinkampfinhisspeeches.
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That is explicitly what they want
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If the Dems retain the WH with the BOTUS and BOTUS#2, it will be 16 yrs of the BO presidency and countin', hey?
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Phew.
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I'm always up for political fun, but it's the Investing Thread.
Move it to the Israel thread, at least.
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Gang, what does this have to do with investing.
It's one thing to talk about how inflation affects voter sentiment. It's another to start in on the President or the oppposition candidate politically.
Let's go back to investments.
Thank you Brother MU
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If Trump is the nominee, any vote for him is for the end of the American experiment, for strongman fascism.
Give me Harris.
#project2025
# redCaesar
#trumpparaphrasingmeinkampfinhisspeeches.
simple question-what is "the american experiment"?
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Democracy
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Brother Pakuni:
Candidly, that analysis makes no sense.
The mood of the country tends to support the notion that we may be spending more, but we don't have purchasing power parity. At least not yet. How else would you explain the general irritation about the economy?
This is interesting relative to the above:
"Anyway, the analysts at Briefing Book delved into one possible reason for this disconnect, which I speculated about right from the start — but they’ve done the math. It’s now a well-established fact that partisan orientation affects expressed views about the economy: Democrats are more positive when a Democrat holds the White House, Republicans more positive when the president is a Republican. What Briefing Book shows is that this effect isn’t symmetric: It applies to both parties, but the partisan effect on sentiment is two and a half times as large for Republicans as it is for Democrats.
And it estimates that this “asymmetric amplification,” all by itself, accounts for 30 percent of the gap between economic sentiment and economic fundamentals.
Wait, there’s more. The importance of partisanship in shaping economic perceptions tells us that a lot of what people say about the economy reflects what they hear, either from news organizations or on social media, rather than their own experiences."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/opinion/partisanship-economy-polling.html?unlocked_article_code=1._Ew.Ee3I.24uQZa_Wyjrb&smid=url-share
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Maybe one of you should start another economy thread
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Democracy
ohhhhh, so taking him off the ballot is....i see you're taking your marching orders from all the usual...when ya don't like your opposition, you prosecute them and remove the threat to YOU'RE democracy. when you can't define democracy to begin with, this is what you get-mush for brains
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Thanks. I needed a laugh this morning.
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ohhhhh, so taking him off the ballot is....i see you're taking your marching orders from all the usual...when ya don't like your opposition, you prosecute them and remove the threat to YOU'RE democracy. when you can't define democracy to begin with, this is what you get-mush for brains
9 out of 10
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I had a snarky answer to roQQet all ready, but killed it.
This is the Investing Thread.
It was a third straight great week for the market, with some of the beaten-down value names joining the tech stocks in a broad rally.
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Interesting graphic:
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2F52vxb1yr7d%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F655a43aa8276c-1700414378.5344.png&t=1700436073&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1cf2-4300f1016400&sig=P1I.KRrb.js3Z3Wk7Uj7eQ--~D)
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ohhhhh, so taking him off the ballot is....i see you're taking your marching orders from all the usual...when ya don't like your opposition, you prosecute them and remove the threat to YOU'RE democracy. when you can't define democracy to begin with, this is what you get-mush for brains
Stop YOU'RE making me laugh
(https://media0.giphy.com/media/wRdWCK1InCEus/giphy.webp?cid=ecf05e47zyt4lt2sr8j1eyvcpcx7bdugskeqrsx7mefiw9fr&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.webp&ct=g)
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In the 2+ months since Unk wrote this ...
Millions and millions of Americans will pay it. NFL is gonna be rolling in the cash for generations. League is unstoppable despite all the fans they’ve lost because of kneeling. Owners are laughing their way to the bank. You’ll be dead and buried and the league will be making sick profits beyond your wildest imagination
... and Douchey followed with this ...
Are you long Disney? You should your entire net worth only in this stock if you truly believe this.
... DIS is up 16.5%. That compares to 2.3% for SPY and 5.0% for QQQ.
Scoop's best counter-indicator gave us all as good a tip as we're gonna get, and I didn't buy. Doggone it!
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From the NYT:
The founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance agreed to plead guilty to money laundering violations and step down from the company.
Changpeng Zhao will pay a $50 million fine and step down as chief executive, a stunning blow to the most powerful and influential figure in the global crypto industry.
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Weird that unregulated finance companies are the wild wild West
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Weird that unregulated finance companies are the wild wild West
That's a feature not a bug because its decentralized currency!!!!
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From the NYT:
The founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance agreed to plead guilty to money laundering violations and step down from the company.
Changpeng Zhao will pay a $50 million fine and step down as chief executive, a stunning blow to the most powerful and influential figure in the global crypto industry.
There has been SHADY bidness around Binance for awhile. The close childhood friend (CCF) of my best man is (was?!) an exec there. CCF was there primarily because his older brother was either the top or second highest ranking US exec at Binance, lived in HK for a few years working for CZ, etc…
CCF did really well at Uber and a brief time at another Silicon Valley start up before he ended up at Binance and he was the consummate tech bro braggart. About everything, often unprompted in group chats. Then about 18-24 months ago he got really quiet. No more bragging, would randomly not answer questions people had about crypto that he used to fall over himself posturing and preaching about. My buddy told me last year “yea I don’t even know where CCF is these days” and when he had reached out for an updated address for their Holiday card last year, CCF took a week to respond and gave him a PO Box in Nevada…which is somewhere he’s never lived.
I’m gonna go google his brother now, cause I’d be STUNNED if he’s not also in legal trouble
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There has been SHADY bidness around Binance for awhile. The close childhood friend (CCF) of my best man is (was?!) an exec there. CCF was there primarily because his older brother was either the top or second highest ranking US exec at Binance, lived in HK for a few years working for CZ, etc…
CCF did really well at Uber and a brief time at another Silicon Valley start up before he ended up at Binance and he was the consummate tech bro braggart. About everything, often unprompted in group chats. Then about 18-24 months ago he got really quiet. No more bragging, would randomly not answer questions people had about crypto that he used to fall over himself posturing and preaching about. My buddy told me last year “yea I don’t even know where CCF is these days” and when he had reached out for an updated address for their Holiday card last year, CCF took a week to respond and gave him a PO Box in Nevada…which is somewhere he’s never lived.
I’m gonna go google his brother now, cause I’d be STUNNED if he’s not also in legal trouble
Interesting 6 degrees of separation, Wags.
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Charlie Munger dead at Age 99. I had invested in Wesco and Daily Journal and enjoyed his unvarnished commentary at shareholder meetings over the years
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/charlie-munger-berkshire-hathaway-dead-74d476a8?st=pfcg14k7ucmqtbz&reflink=article_copyURL_share
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Market expected to head higher at open after the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, advanced 3.5% Y/Y in October, matching the consensus and cooling from 3.7% in September.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4041770-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-rises-35-yy-in-october-easing-slightly
This marks the lowest print this year in a sign that inflation is falling but remains above the central bank's 2% target. Bearing in mind the lagged effects of monetary policy, could incentivize the Fed to hold rates steady in December and start cutting next year.
The report follows yesterday's release of U.S. Q3 GDP growth being revised +5.2%, on an annualized basis, from the prior estimate of 4.9% and stronger than the 2.1% rise in Q2, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
The increase reflects an upturn in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and nonresidential fixed investment.
Also, real disposable personal income, which adjusts for inflation, inched up 0.1% during the quarter, an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points.
The personal savings rate, or personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, rose to 4.0% from 3.8% in the previous estimate, the BEA said.
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So.......panic?
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So.......panic?
Yes, I can’t find coffee
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Yes, I can’t find coffee
Biden's fault
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The way 2023 has gone I get quite worried how the American public will handle the next actual prolonged economic downturn.
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The number one item I wanted to know about the cybertruck was the drag coefficient. Reported as .335. Very very good. Love the style or hate it, its form in fact does serve a purpose. That was my number one question Pushing a lot less air than its perceived rivals that favor traditional style over function/efficiency.
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The number one item I wanted to know about the cybertruck was the drag coefficient. Reported as .335. Very very good. Love the style or hate it, its form in fact does serve a purpose. That was my number one question Pushing a lot less air than its perceived rivals that favor traditional style over function/efficiency.
It looks like a pinewood derby car
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It looks like a pinewood derby car
It looks like something designed by a 4th grader using Minecraft.
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TSLA, which was down about 2% yesterday, is down another 2.5% today.
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TSLA, which was down about 2% yesterday, is down another 2.5% today.
Good to see the market punish anti-semites
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Musk acknowledged that the Cybertruck was going to be an albatross. It achieved very few stated goals. Range, price, capability, all came up short. Meanwhile, the big 3 and Rivian all beat it to market. There is every chance the Cybertruck will be Tesla's Edsel. And they invested so much into it at the expense of improving and updating their existing vehicles and battery technology.
As a car company, Tesla is going to need to improve.
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Ford also blew its chance with the Lightning, which is a shame. They could have had a several-hundred-thousand EV truck headstart, which would have hurt Musk's "truck" even more. But Ford couldn't overcome numerous problems, and EVs as a whole have been bigly money-losers for the company.
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It looks like something designed by a 4th grader using Minecraft.
That's about where Musk is these days
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Ford also blew its chance with the Lightning, which is a shame. They could have had a several-hundred-thousand EV truck headstart, which would have hurt Musk's "truck" even more. But Ford couldn't overcome numerous problems, and EVs as a whole have been bigly money-losers for the company.
Ford has, on paper, an amazing portfolio of cars. They are plagued by quality control, electrical, and service issues. You are correct, they had the opportunity to end this and channeled their 'same old Lions' and let it get away.
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GM: "We can't afford to pay our factory workers more money! We'll go bankrupt!"
3 months later...
GM: "We'd like to announce $10bil in stock buybacks"
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Musk acknowledged that the Cybertruck was going to be an albatross. It achieved very few stated goals. Range, price, capability, all came up short. Meanwhile, the big 3 and Rivian all beat it to market. There is every chance the Cybertruck will be Tesla's Edsel. And they invested so much into it at the expense of improving and updating their existing vehicles and battery technology.
As a car company, Tesla is going to need to improve.
If you follow Tesla this is how every car intro Tesla has made works.
Perfect description: “It looks like a pinewood derby car”
It will be interesting to see if trucks change their shape to be more efficient. I doubt it in the short term, but cars sure have. Not the square boxes I grew up with. So long term trucks are likely forced to adapt. I will say this for the cybertruck, I could see Arnold types driving this and other “bad a..” types. I wouldn’t write it off just yet. But definitely not an F150 killer
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You think the types who gravitated to the original Hummer will want this electric truck. A bold thought. Still never takes it past niche. But that really isn't the point. Way overpromised, way underdelivered. For twice the original projected price.
The battery technology is racing forward to end range anxiety. The infrastructure is not. Ironically, Tesla is still far ahead in charger efficiency. They have an opportunity there, if they can take it.
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Offered with a grain of salt for those interested ...
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ibb.co%2FYbKxngP%2FScreenshot-2023-12-01-at-2-50-18-PM.png&t=1701552083&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1c54-5d015f017200&sig=UQXg9bb0iPHn2JYCdPSaXg--~D)
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Costco (COST) broke through $600 for the first time.
It's been "extremely overvalued" for years - at $300 and $400 and $500 and now $600.
I do own a decent-sized position, but as always I sure wish I had more. Best business model in all of retail.
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Job growth still up, unemployment still too low. Rate hikes on the horizon? Or just seasonal staffing bumps?
Lots of big shops have raced back into equities that I like: Pre-profit growth stage tech companies. That makes be think that lots of folk are betting that rake hikes are done.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/08/excess-profits-of-big-firms-have-driven-up-inflation-report-claims.html
Another report pointing to price gouging as a factor in inflation
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Job growth still up, unemployment still too low. Rate hikes on the horizon? Or just seasonal staffing bumps?
Lots of big shops have raced back into equities that I like: Pre-profit growth stage tech companies. That makes be think that lots of folk are betting that rake hikes are done.
I still think we've hit the end of the hike cycle, but it might take a little longer for them to come back down. There had been hope for lower rates starting in March, but maybe not till summer later?
A pretty big chunk of the job gains are attributed to striking auto workers returning, so we'll see what future months look like.
I'm not piling $$$ into the market, but I'm not really selling, either. Of course, I'm a boring, conservative, buy-and-holdish investor anyway.
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I still think we've hit the end of the hike cycle, but it might take a little longer for them to come back down. There had been hope for lower rates starting in March, but maybe not till summer later?
A pretty big chunk of the job gains are attributed to striking auto workers returning, so we'll see what future months look like.
I'm not piling $$$ into the market, but I'm not really selling, either. Of course, I'm a boring, conservative, buy-and-holdish investor anyway.
Yeah same. The time to buy is when I have money laying around which is monthly. I don't time my buys, but it's fun to discuss.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/08/excess-profits-of-big-firms-have-driven-up-inflation-report-claims.html
Another report pointing to price gouging as a factor in inflation
Greedflation is certainly a component. Along with a war in Ukraine, the Saudis choosing to help Putin on fuel output, lingering supply issues post COVID and pent up demand post COVID.
IMO, A component, not THE component.
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Greedflation is certainly a component. Along with a war in Ukraine, the Saudis choosing to help Putin on fuel output, lingering supply issues post COVID and pent up demand post COVID.
IMO, A component, not THE component.
What about the direct stimulus payments to US citizens?
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What about the direct stimulus payments to US citizens?
lol
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Like Majerus dropping 5 lbs.
Edit: I forgot about the upward pressure on wages with near full employment.
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Like Majerus dropping 5 lbs.
Edit: I forgot about the upward pressure on wages with near full employment.
Wage growth held steady this period, 0.4%, where experts keep thinking it will drop.
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As I previously indicated, the company I work is at the bottom of the supply chain. We have been slow the last 2-3 months and project the same until 2Q2024. All our customers tell us us their customers are on a major inventory burn post-COVID until 2Q2024. International customer orders are down 70-75% and US customers are only down ~35%.
Two things: Every company all of a sudden has been pushing the "inflation is down" trope and "you need to give me a price cut" line.
And I've been deluged with quote requests and inquiries the last 6+ weeks as I think companies are price shopping and getting ready to start ordering again. Some of my customers tell me their customers are already starting to pull in quantity again.
FWIW
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As I previously indicated, the company I work is at the bottom of the supply chain. We have been slow the last 2-3 months and project the same until 2Q2024. All our customers tell us us their customers are on a major inventory burn post-COVID until 2Q2024. International customer orders are down 70-75% and US customers are only down ~35%.
Two things: Every company all of a sudden has been pushing the "inflation is down" trope and "you need to give me a price cut" line.
And I've been deluged with quote requests and inquiries the last 6+ weeks as I think companies are price shopping and getting ready to start ordering again. Some of my customers tell me their customers are already starting to pull in quantity again.
FWIW
Interesting. Thanks for sharing this.
Wage growth held steady this period, 0.4%, where experts keep thinking it will drop.
Yep. Economy is fundamentally strong.
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i believe the allure of privately owned electric vehicles is on a slow walk down. i think companies like tesla will see their values settle in closer to their intrinsic values.
people are realizing the limitations of EV relative to their actual cost. they have to be practical. let's face it, buying a car is not, in most cases the best investment a family can make considering the drop in value the minute you drive it off the lot
ev vehicles are cool and all, but just not something everyone can afford given their limitations
btw, that COP28 in dubai was embarrassing, but at least those rich guys had fun playing "god" except God would be practicing what he preaches. at least he would have walked there and not flown via private jet
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/08/business/organized-shoplifting-retail-crime-theft-retraction.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Whoops!
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Put it in the crime thread. It belongs there with the other lies, exaggerations, and dog whistles.
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Put it in the crime thread. It belongs there with the other lies, exaggerations, and dog whistles.
But it was very convenient for senior management at so many retailers to blame crime rather their poor inventory control and poor staffing models.
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But it was very convenient for senior management at so many retailers to blame crime rather their poor inventory control and poor staffing models.
Not to mention it got the boomers/fox news crowd all riled up.
There were posts about the shoplifting/crime epidemic by our resident dentists at the time the original articles were coming out
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Not to mention it got the boomers/fox news crowd all riled up.
There were posts about the shoplifting/crime epidemic by our resident dentists at the time the original articles were coming out
Don't expect actual facts to change what's left of their minds.
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It was a spurious study to begin with, cause there isn't a good way to track it, its basically store sampling, which is always going to lead with inconsistent results.
But looking critically, I don't think that it means its all a lie/fear mongering. It says that it wasn't a national epidemic but rather isolated to certain cities. That still is significant and can lead to actual changes in policy. I don't know if "well its only happening in NYC, SF, Houston, and Seattle, this isn't truly a problem" is exactly honest either.
As with a lot of issues these days, its BS on both sides. Many retailers have lazy staffing (not saying the employees themselves necessarily, but poor training and protocol) and look to slap bandaids on issues instead of solve the underlying problem. But at the same time, without clutching pearls, I do think its a rather concerning and perverse trend to paint shoplifting as some sort of victimless crime which 100% is being done in many places and forums.
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From Yahoo Finance:
Chart of the week: Pessimistic consumers are suddenly feeling better
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2Fas5q02blg9%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F65735d3d2d443-1702059325.1854.png&t=1702150080&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1c23-59034f013300&sig=dc.eBhkkQXAlXu1ukfAT5A--~D)
Friday’s consumer sentiment index, out from the University of Michigan, showed a 13% jump in how people feel about the economy, surprising investors with this positivity.
Four months of pessimism have been erased in one fell swoop. To consumers, it feels like summer. Or last August anyway.
The report said that this good mood is “primarily on the basis of improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation.”
It’s not the only sign of an often pessimistic cohort putting a smile on.
Last week’s Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board showed a wave of optimism rolled through in November, snapping a three-month decline. Higher prices, wars, and rates had led consumer concerns. And The Conference Board found these increases in optimism were largely driven by the 55-plus age group.
Which speaks to one of the great things about these surveys: You don’t really have to wonder why.
People are suddenly feeling good about inflation and where it’s heading, which has been the 2023 bugaboo for both Fed Chair Jay Powell and pretty much anybody who buys things — also known as consumers.
Friday’s report, on this count, also offered some notable optimism. Consumers now expect prices to rise next year at the slowest pace in two years, and inflation over the long run is expected to rise by the least since 2011.
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From Yahoo Finance:
Chart of the week: Pessimistic consumers are suddenly feeling better
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2Fas5q02blg9%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F65735d3d2d443-1702059325.1854.png&t=1702150080&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1c23-59034f013300&sig=dc.eBhkkQXAlXu1ukfAT5A--~D)
Friday’s consumer sentiment index, out from the University of Michigan, showed a 13% jump in how people feel about the economy, surprising investors with this positivity.
Four months of pessimism have been erased in one fell swoop. To consumers, it feels like summer. Or last August anyway.
The report said that this good mood is “primarily on the basis of improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation.”
It’s not the only sign of an often pessimistic cohort putting a smile on.
Last week’s Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board showed a wave of optimism rolled through in November, snapping a three-month decline. Higher prices, wars, and rates had led consumer concerns. And The Conference Board found these increases in optimism were largely driven by the 55-plus age group.
Which speaks to one of the great things about these surveys: You don’t really have to wonder why.
People are suddenly feeling good about inflation and where it’s heading, which has been the 2023 bugaboo for both Fed Chair Jay Powell and pretty much anybody who buys things — also known as consumers.
Friday’s report, on this count, also offered some notable optimism. Consumers now expect prices to rise next year at the slowest pace in two years, and inflation over the long run is expected to rise by the least since 2011.
Thanks, POTUS!
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Props to Powell and Yellen for ignoring the noise and staying the course.
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So sad that millions of Americans are rooting "against" the U.S. economy.
Oh well, haters gotta hate.
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From the Wall Street Journal:
Jerome Powell's inflation fight is working, raising questions about rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve is on track to hold interest rates steady this week. Officials aren’t likely to entertain serious conversations about when to cut rates at their meeting—and potentially for several months. Still, they don’t think rates need to remain at their current, economically restrictive setting indefinitely. The big questions now are about when the Fed can start cutting rates and by how much. Waiting too long could cause a recession, whereas trimming rates too soon would fail to vanquish inflation. Officials’ updated rate projections, to be released Wednesday after their meeting, will show that most expect to cut rates somewhat next year.
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Good November numbers on inflation. Not yet to the Fed's target, but not bad.
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"Inflation Picks Up Slightly as Bidenflation Persists for 32nd Straight Month". Figures don't lie, but liars figure, aina?
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Yes, you do.
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100% correct. Ya got me. I really don't average 22 putts/ round, hey?
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Neither do I. Somebody else made that claim long ago. I have had rounds with 22 putts, usually due to mediocre irons and really good chipping. But I have never claimed to average 22 putts. Thank you for making my point.
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"Inflation Picks Up Slightly as Bidenflation Persists for 32nd Straight Month". Figures don't lie, but liars figure, aina?
Dark Brandon is so powerful that he caused even greater inflation across industrialized nations with just a wave of Hunter's laptop!
He took it easy on the U.S., relatively. ThAks fOR nOthINg, joE!
(https://images2.imgbox.com/b8/1d/eNrY614b_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/eNrY614b)
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The economy is far from perfect, but any administration would be touting the numbers we have now.
If he had the exact same data (rather than the worst employment numbers of any president in modern U.S. history), the previous WH office-holder would be screaming: "People are saying that I created the greatest economy ever."
Anyhoo, this is the Investing Thread. I doubt much of this affects how anybody here is actually investing.
I'm in a holding pattern. Market seems a little rich overall so I'm not putting much in except the stuff I have set on reinvestment ... but I also don't like selling, and I especially hate selling winners. There have been many times over the last 5-6 years that I've been tempted to trim my biggest winners, and in each situation I've been glad I didn't.
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Y'all are talking numbers while 4ever is talking about his feelings, that's why there's a disconnect
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Actual investing info from Yahoo Finance:
The fundamental story: As stock prices have ascended to finish 2023, some investors might be left wondering what underwrites this sprint to the finish. Data from FactSet's John Butters out Monday offers a likely answer — S&P 500 earnings next year are set to rise 11.8%, well above the 8.4% annual average seen over the last decade. And nothing matters more to stocks than earnings over the long run.
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2Fkpu1f0qanc%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F6577823e29e8f-1702330942.1717.jpg&t=1702400946&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1c9b-9200f601dc00&sig=sTvmgmK_zRyROQtVQg3R9g--~D)
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No Barbie fund?
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Y'all are talking numbers while 4ever is talking about his feelings, that's why there's a disconnect
Pox Americana, personified.
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From Seeking Alpha, here is some inflation-related info that might actually be of use to some investors:
The Consumer Price Index report for November indicated a 3.1% year-over-year increase, compared with the +3.2% expected by economists and the +3.2% pace seen in October.
The closely-watched food category was up 2.9% year-over-year, with food away from home up 5.3% during the month and food at home up just 1.7%. The pace of inflation for food at home is now below the Federal Reserve's overall target rate of 2%.
Categories showing moderating or declining year-over-year inflation included cereal (+2.0%), pork (-0.5%), ham (-0.8%), breakfast sausage (-1.8%), poultry (+1.0%), fish/seafood (-2.5%), eggs (-22.3%), milk (-2.4%), lettuce (-10.2%), and coffee (-0.1%). Those marks could be of interest to a wide range of food companies such as Tyson Foods (TSN), Hormel (HRL), Oatly (OTLY), Kroger (KR), J.M. Smucker (SJM), and Cal-Maine Foods (CALM). Categories with prices holding up, included carbonated drinks (+3.6%) and candy/chewing gum (+6.2%) in an indication that companies such as PepsiCo (PEP), Coca-Cola (KO), Hershey (HSY), Mondelez International (MDLZ), and Celsius Holdings (CELH) still have some pricing power.
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Not to mention it got the boomers/fox news crowd all riled up.
There were posts about the shoplifting/crime epidemic by our resident dentists at the time the original articles were coming out
I have been away from here for 5 years, nothing much has changed. Interesting how my ignore list remains functional. The world has changed, but some people are still in their silo.
My respite was wonderful.
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I have been away from here for 5 years, nothing much has changed. Interesting how my ignore list remains functional. The world has changed, but some people are still in their silo.
My respite was wonderful.
You last posted in 2021
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You last posted in 2021
Each Wojo year is 7 Scoop years
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You last posted in 2021
I thought it was 4-5 years to judge
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Rate raise day - Will JPow agree with 4ever that inflation is out of control and we need to raise rates again? Will he stay the course of flat rates like he's expected to? Will he say that 3% inflation and <4% unemployment isn't good enough so we have to start cutting rates to see how much we can overheat the economy? Stay tuned to this week's episode of.... “JPow's Money Printer (used to) Go Brrr”
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Here's an interesting chart from Yahoo Finance showing that the market has tended to do best during rate pauses, not during rate-cut cycles ...
(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2F9eawmxkl78%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F6578d134ccd6e-1702416692.839.png&t=1702478123&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1c03-c1002f019d00&sig=txCSqOp38sxX0aka5AoHLQ--~D)
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Someone want to let 4elders know that slight rises for inflation are how the system is designed and YOY is expected at 2%-3%.
If he doesn't know this, he should probably shut up and drill.
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Someone want to let 4elders know that slight rises for inflation are how the system is designed and YOY is expected at 2%-3%.
If he doesn't know this, he should probably shut up and drill.
I've talked to a few older conservatives that have had a lot of their money pulled out of the market for this entire bull run because they're waiting for some market crash because of the 'weak economy'. Certain news outlets are going to ruin the retirement of quite a few people. Hopefully the folks here have their money managed by someone that's emotionally stable.
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I've talked to a few older conservatives that have had a lot of their money pulled out of the market for this entire bull run because they're waiting for some market crash because of the 'weak economy'. Certain news outlets are going to ruin the retirement of quite a few people. Hopefully the folks here have their money managed by someone that's emotionally stable.
People who try to time the market are always fools.
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Maybe the guy that told us AAPL has peaked can chime in and tell us what is next for this market.
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Or that we would all be drivingTeslas by now.
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Maybe the guy that told us AAPL has peaked can chime in and tell us what is next for this market.
Well, according to Douchey's go-to source, Zero Hedge, the market is up because the guy Trumpie appointed is in the bag for Biden.
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Skatastrophy
I was out of the market in 2022 and only began nibbling back in late spring. Roughly 75% in since July and definitely missed out more than I should have. My gut tells me I cost myself a bit and learned a lesson on trying to outsmart the market.
I won’t give my thoughts on the economy(again) but very happy for anyone that had a great 2023 in the market. Fingers crossed the trend is everyone’s friend.
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Skatastrophy
I was out of the market in 2022 and only began nibbling back in late spring. Roughly 75% in since July and definitely missed out more than I should have. My gut tells me I cost myself a bit and learned a lesson on trying to outsmart the market.
I won’t give my thoughts on the economy(again) but very happy for anyone that had a great 2023 in the market. Fingers crossed the trend is everyone’s friend.
Man that's big of you to admit. My non-ironic suggestion for anyone that has ever thought about taking their money out of the market for any reason: Pay a fiduciary advisor to manage your money. There is no good reason to exit the market, and it's okay to admit that your emotions get the better of you. How could they not, it's your entire life savings at risk.
I poke fun and maybe I shouldn't. This stuff is life or death in our later years.
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Skatastrophy
I fully understand every word in your post and do not disagree. Again, I won’t get into my feelings on the economy as whole, but I 100% went with my core belief. I was right in 2022 and hurt myself in 2023.
Again, I do not disagree with anything you said and very sound advice. Full disclosure, my wife was 100% in the market the whole time and that is part of my reason for rolling the dice last year.
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Skatastrophy
I fully understand every word in your post and do not disagree. Again, I won’t get into my feelings on the economy as whole, but I 100% went with my core belief. I was right in 2022 and hurt myself in 2023.
Again, I do not disagree with anything you said and very sound advice. Full disclosure, my wife was 100% in the market the whole time and that is part of my reason for rolling the dice last year.
Timing the market isn't about knowing when to sell. It's about knowing the right time to sell and then the right time to buy again. That's why buy and hold is so powerful for us laymen.
Hopefully you've learned to keep your politics hobby away from your retirement. We've got low inflation, low unemployment, and high GDP growth. If you don't like this economy I don't know what to tell ya.
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Skatastrophy
You might have me mistaken for 82. I have zero interest in politics and wish my interest could go lower. I have learned that my belief on the economy does not make it reality. The fact that I cannot believe how the vast majority of American's can afford housing, car payments, student loans, food and cost of raising a family really is just an opinion and the economic reports strongly indicate I am wrong.
Again, if you thought I risked losing on the market due to politics, you missed the target by a very wide margin. Thanks for the sound advice of keeping politics out of my retirement planning. I will 100% continue to follow that advice.
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Skatastrophy
You might have me mistaken for 82. I have zero interest in politics and wish my interest could go lower. I have learned that my belief on the economy does not make it reality. The fact that I cannot believe how the vast majority of American's can afford housing, car payments, student loans, food and cost of raising a family really is just an opinion and the economic reports strongly indicate I am wrong.
Again, if you thought I risked losing on the market due to politics, you missed the target by a very wide margin. Thanks for the sound advice of keeping politics out of my retirement planning. I will 100% continue to follow that advice.
Rebuff accepted, carry on :)
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Skatastrophy
You might have me mistaken for 82. I have zero interest in politics and wish my interest could go lower. I have learned that my belief on the economy does not make it reality. The fact that I cannot believe how the vast majority of American's can afford housing, car payments, student loans, food and cost of raising a family really is just an opinion and the economic reports strongly indicate I am wrong.
Again, if you thought I risked losing on the market due to politics, you missed the target by a very wide margin. Thanks for the sound advice of keeping politics out of my retirement planning. I will 100% continue to follow that advice.
Bidenomics at its best, hey?
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Absolutely!!! Keep it rollin, Joe!!!
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Bidenomics at its best, hey?
You didn't read the part where he said he was wrong?
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Nah, didn't miss it. Its fools gold. Folks can't really afford it, they just think they can, hey?
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Skatastrophy
You might have me mistaken for 82. I have zero interest in politics and wish my interest could go lower. I have learned that my belief on the economy does not make it reality. The fact that I cannot believe how the vast majority of American's can afford housing, car payments, student loans, food and cost of raising a family really is just an opinion and the economic reports strongly indicate I am wrong.
Again, if you thought I risked losing on the market due to politics, you missed the target by a very wide margin. Thanks for the sound advice of keeping politics out of my retirement planning. I will 100% continue to follow that advice.
Based on the fact that 2/3 of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and a majority would be unable to afford a $1000 emergency, I think you're correct.
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I'm already starting to see quick turnaround large buys and the panic "do you have in stock" emails for January delivery (4 already this week). We usually have longer lead times to work with to make. I'm also hearing from other manufacturing firms seeing the same issue as me that their customers and their customer's customers put off buys the last 3 months since they had inventory and decided to negotiate price decreases with their suppliers before placing 2024 orders. Looks like a lot of underestimated demand and companies are just realizing they way underbought the last few months.
I'm adding another 2 cents from my post last week. Economy should be rolling well in 2024.
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Based on the fact that 2/3 of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and a majority would be unable to afford a $1000 emergency, I think you're correct.
That is an incorrect figure I think. The source of your data (grabbed the cnbc link from your post history) was LendingClub.com. The actual source said that 67% of consumers living alone are living paycheck to paycheck, and only 21% of people living paycheck to paycheck self reported having trouble paying bills.
Here's the article behind the article you posted - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/31/61percent-of-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-even-as-inflation-cools.html
Here's the source that they misquoted to make it sound bad, if sourcing LendingClub.com wasn't bad enough- https://www.pymnts.com/study/reality-check-paycheck-to-paycheck-inflation-household-spending-shared-expenses/
Still, a salute to all the hyper-consumers out there spending their whole paycheck propping up the stock market. Keep up the great work.
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Skatastrophy - You might have me mistaken for 82.
Maybe Skatastrophy mistook you for a dentist ...
Because I never let my thoughts on politics interfere with my investing. They are two separate worlds.
Biden, Trump, Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Reagan ... you name the president, or who had control of Congress, or who governors or mayors were, or whatever ... I stay invested, and I'm always looking for opportunities to invest more.
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82
Seriously?
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82
Seriously?
not to worry goose-better to be mistaken as a dentist than a "journalist"...way better
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82
Seriously?
Seriously what, Goose?
You don't understand that I don't let my thoughts on politics interfere with my investing? What don't you understand about it? I thought I explained it pretty well.
And BTW ... you're the one who brought it up, and who brought me into it.
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not to worry goose-better to be mistaken as a dentist than a "journalist"...way better
6.5 out of 10
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Rocket
I am a proud member of the dentist fan club!!
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Rocket
I am a proud member of the dentist fan club!!
reconsider.
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Rocket
I am a proud member of the dentist fan club!!
😬😬😬
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As I read several investing sites last night and this morning, numerous analysts are coming out and warning that this market rally is "overcooked" and that trouble is on the horizon.
They might be right. Or not.
What I do know is that lots of these exact same experts are the men and women who predicted a year ago that the market would be flat at best in 2023, with many predicting a decline and/or a recession.
SPY is up 24% this year, so those who listened to them missed out on some serious gains.
Again, I'm not saying the bears are wrong this time. I'm saying that I don't know ... and that I have little reason to believe they know, either.
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BOTUS is planning a trip to MKE. Hopefully GPS steers him in the right direction and he doesn't end up in Lake Michigan. Going to taut the success of Buffoonomics. LOL, hey?
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BOTUS is planning a trip to MKE. Hopefully GPS steers him in the right direction and he doesn't end up in Lake Michigan. Going to taut the success of Buffoonomics. LOL, hey?
We avoided a recession and inflation was transitory, so that's worth bragging about.
Not that the president has any power over those things.
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BOTUS is planning a trip to MKE. Hopefully GPS steers him in the right direction and he doesn't end up in Lake Michigan. Going to taut the success of Buffoonomics. LOL, hey?
Tell me again how Foxconn turned out for everyone?
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Tell me again how Foxconn turned out for everyone?
Pretty much how everyone knew it would.
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BOTUS is planning a trip to MKE. Hopefully GPS steers him in the right direction and he doesn't end up in Lake Michigan. Going to taut the success of Buffoonomics. LOL, hey?
Your BDS doesn't belong in the Investing Thread. Take it elsewhere.
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Neary 3M jobs created in the last 12 months
Inflation cut by 2/3rds
GDP over 3% in last 12 months, including blasting over 5% last quarter
Real wage growth in excess of inflation
Easily fooled mentally diminished conspiracy theorist proclaims everything terrible
Checks out
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Neary 3M jobs created in the last 12 months
Inflation cut by 2/3rds
GDP over 3% in last 12 months, including blasting over 5% last quarter
Real wage growth in excess of inflation
Easily fooled mentally diminished conspiracy theorist proclaims everything terrible
Checks out
easy on the sauce smith, most of the jobs were RECOVERED not created. inflation is still hurting those however that do not have the extra cash to get in to the market. some probably have this stuff in retirement funds, but let's be honest, they do not have the resources to enjoy the ride many others can
but yes, i do like the direction of the market, gas prices have fallen in this area to mid to high $2. there have been many stocks that had been designated as hold, until they were off to the races. got in to AI market with chips-intc, amd, nvda along with appl, msft, meta,ibm, 3m uranium is killing it, CRM-YES! and there are others
yes, and there are the "experts" out there...nuff said
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easy on the sauce smith, most of the jobs were RECOVERED not created. inflation is still hurting those however that do not have the extra cash to get in to the market. some probably have this stuff in retirement funds, but let's be honest, they do not have the resources to enjoy the ride many others can
but yes, i do like the direction of the market, gas prices have fallen in this area to mid to high $2. there have been many stocks that had been designated as hold, until they were off to the races. got in to AI market with chips-intc, amd, nvda along with appl, msft, meta,ibm, 3m uranium is killing it, CRM-YES! and there are others
yes, and there are the "experts" out there...nuff said
So these jobs and the low unemployment report that goes along with them don't count? Why change the rules now? The jobs weren't there and now they are. Nuff said. Send your thanks directly to Joe.
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easy on the sauce smith, most of the jobs were RECOVERED not created. inflation is still hurting those however that do not have the extra cash to get in to the market. some probably have this stuff in retirement funds, but let's be honest, they do not have the resources to enjoy the ride many others can
but yes, i do like the direction of the market, gas prices have fallen in this area to mid to high $2. there have been many stocks that had been designated as hold, until they were off to the races. got in to AI market with chips-intc, amd, nvda along with appl, msft, meta,ibm, 3m uranium is killing it, CRM-YES! and there are others
yes, and there are the "experts" out there...nuff said
7.5 out of 10
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So these jobs and the low unemployment report that goes along with them don't count? Why change the rules now? The jobs weren't there and now they are. Nuff said. Send your thanks directly to Joe.
I mean, you do have to admire the wingnuts and their use of manipulative language. Diminishing the results and thereby ensuring no credit is accrued to Biden by dismissively calling the jobs merely recovered? Strong work.
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So these jobs and the low unemployment report that goes along with them don't count? Why change the rules now? The jobs weren't there and now they are. Nuff said. Send your thanks directly to Joe.
where did i say "don't count"??
also, please take into account food and energy prices in inflation if ya'll want to be open and honest
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where did i say "don't count"??
also, please take into account food and energy prices in inflation if ya'll want to be open and honest
2.5 out of 10
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also, please take into account food and energy prices in inflation if ya'll want to be open and honest
Sure, let's have a calm discussion about the economy and investing.
Food prices have stabilized. Energy prices have been coming down just about all year.
There was serious inflation, mostly caused by stimulus that each of the last two presidents/Congresses passed in response to the pandemic, but also because the current president/previous Congress pushed through an infrastructure bill that each of the previous three presidents promised but failed to deliver.
Face it ... if your favorite president were in office right now, with these exact financial numbers, you'd be singing hymns to how strong, resilient, robust and growing this economy is.
To be fair, there were years where the economy was good under your hero, and his detractors pooh-poohed it. Because politics.
I know people who didn't invest for 5+ years after Obama was elected because they were convinced he would somehow hurt the market. I also know people who thought the market was gonna tank after your hero was elected and they sold bigly.
All of them failed to take advantage of one of the great bull runs ever ... and all because they let their emotions and political leanings affect their investments.
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where did i say "don't count"??
also, please take into account food and energy prices in inflation if ya'll want to be open and honest
Okay, looks like we agree that Joe is kicking ass on the jobs front. Thank you for clarifying your position. Finally you give the guy some credit.
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where did i say "don't count"??
also, please take into account food and energy prices in inflation if ya'll want to be open and honest
I would also suggest adding housing cost, healthcare and education
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easy on the sauce smith, most of the jobs were RECOVERED not created. inflation is still hurting those however that do not have the extra cash to get in to the market. some probably have this stuff in retirement funds, but let's be honest, they do not have the resources to enjoy the ride many others can
but yes, i do like the direction of the market, gas prices have fallen in this area to mid to high $2. there have been many stocks that had been designated as hold, until they were off to the races. got in to AI market with chips-intc, amd, nvda along with appl, msft, meta,ibm, 3m uranium is killing it, CRM-YES! and there are others
yes, and there are the "experts" out there...nuff said
please re read my post-there's really not that much here to get so lit up about. go joe go!!
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Things look good in pre-market trading:
Dow Futures
37,739.00
+ 78.00
S&P 500 Futures
4,780.25
+ 12.25
NASDAQ Futures
16,848.00
+ 27.75
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Inflation/CPI seems to be dropping globally. Off to the races
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Inflation/CPI seems to be dropping globally. Off to the races
I don't know. I was exposed to Fox Business News this morning and apparently the U.S. economy is on the brink of collapse and everything is Joe Biden's fault, except for jobs gains because those are just jobs that Trump created starting to come back despite Bidenomics.
My head hurts.
There really is something poisoning the blood of the country--it's Rupert Murdoch.
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I don't know. I was exposed to Fox Business News this morning and apparently the U.S. economy is on the brink of collapse and everything is Joe Biden's fault, except for jobs gains because those are just jobs that Trump created starting to come back despite Bidenomics.
My head hurts.
There really is something poisoning the blood of the country--it's Rupert Murdoch.
“Exposed” - LOL. Who tied you up, turned up the volume and forced you to watch? When you start off with a blatant lie how do you expect anyone to believe your biased synopsis of what you claimed you heard?
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“Exposed” - LOL. Who tied you up, turned up the volume and forced you to watch? When you start off with a blatant lie how do you expect anyone to believe your biased synopsis of what you claimed you heard?
big mad
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“Exposed” - LOL. Who tied you up, turned up the volume and forced you to watch? When you start off with a blatant lie how do you expect anyone to believe your biased synopsis of what you claimed you heard?
You know how family gatherings work, right? This is the time of year that many of us are exposed the crap that our family/inlaws watch on TV, and finally understand why their understanding of the economy/politics/global issues are divorced from reality and why they're angry all the time.
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“Exposed” - LOL. Who tied you up, turned up the volume and forced you to watch? When you start off with a blatant lie how do you expect anyone to believe your biased synopsis of what you claimed you heard?
In-laws. At volume 40. I imagine you can find a replay of Maria Bartiromo's screechfest if you try.
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“Exposed” - LOL. Who tied you up, turned up the volume and forced you to watch? When you start off with a blatant lie how do you expect anyone to believe your biased synopsis of what you claimed you heard?
Fox News is always on one of the TVs at my gym. The oldies on the recumbent bikes insist upon it.
But yeah, no one is forced to watch. But sometimes it's hard to turn away from a train wreck.
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In-laws. At volume 40. I imagine you can find a replay of Maria Bartiromo's screechfest if you try.
Thanks, but not interested. Do your in laws know that you can’t stand them and think that they’re awful, stupid people ? Or do you keep that to yourself?
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Thanks, but not interested. Do your in laws know that you can’t stand them and think that they’re awful, stupid people ? Or do you keep that to yourself?
Oh, Lenny. How far you've fallen. Quite sad.
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You know how family gatherings work, right? This is the time of year that many of us are exposed the crap that our family/inlaws watch on TV, and finally understand why their understanding of the economy/politics/global issues are divorced from reality and why they're angry all the time.
Sometimes people just gotta figure it out for themselves. Once they understand that their political "leaders" are giving them bad investment advice, bad healthcare advice, and bad employment advice then maybe they will have time to course correct. Or, maybe not.
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Sometimes people just gotta figure it out for themselves. Once they understand that their political "leaders" are giving them bad investment advice, bad healthcare advice, and bad employment advice then maybe they will have time to course correct. Or, maybe not.
My context for the original post in relation to the economy and investing was the "or maybe not part". They are being fed a dystopian alternate reality which makes it near impossible to notice the bad advice. Everything is horrible and it's the Others' fault.
If you listen to that show, you'd have your money buried in jars in the backyard to hide it from the immigrants about to rape you. And you'd have missed the 25% run up in the market this year, which is also the Others' fault.
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I don't know. I was exposed to Fox Business News this morning and apparently the U.S. economy is on the brink of collapse and everything is Joe Biden's fault, except for jobs gains because those are just jobs that Trump created starting to come back despite Bidenomics.
My head hurts.
There really is something poisoning the blood of the country--it's Rupert Murdoch.
and you're worried about "how far lenny has fallen"??? check the mirror dude
i watch fox new business on occasion and if that's what you got out of it, either you are lying or your comprehesion is failing...probably both...nothing was as bad as your hero paul krugman's forecast back in 2016. and he's an "award winning journalist"
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and you're worried about "how far lenny has fallen"??? check the mirror dude
i watch fox new business on occasion and if that's what you got out of it, either you are lying or your comprehesion is failing...probably both...nothing was as bad as your hero paul krugman's forecast back in 2016. and he's an "award winning journalist"
It's where you picked up and subsequently faithfully regurgitated the "jobs are just being replaced" propaganda.
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It's where you picked up and subsequently faithfully regurgitated the "jobs are just being replaced" propaganda.
the jobs aren't being replaced, they are jobs that were there before pres dipstick took office, laid off due to covid, then brought back once the recovery began. so yes, nothing was created weekend at bernies isn't creating anything. they haven't spent even a fraction of his "infrastructure" build back better bs (remember that one?)except for a heated sidewalk in new hampshire or some where
your claim of watching fox business and what you got out of it is horse hockey. even i get an occasional nugget out of cramer...like when he says sell, i'm buying
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the jobs aren't being replaced, they are jobs that were there before pres dipstick took office, laid off due to covid, then brought back once the recovery began.
When do you think COVID happened?
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the jobs aren't being replaced, they are jobs that were there before pres dipstick took office, laid off due to covid, then brought back once the recovery began. so yes, nothing was created weekend at bernies isn't creating anything. they haven't spent even a fraction of his "infrastructure" build back better bs (remember that one?)except for a heated sidewalk in new hampshire or some where
your claim of watching fox business and what you got out of it is horse hockey. even i get an occasional nugget out of cramer...like when he says sell, i'm buying
This is just wrong. There are more people employed now than ever.
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My context for the original post in relation to the economy and investing was the "or maybe not part". They are being fed a dystopian alternate reality which makes it near impossible to notice the bad advice. Everything is horrible and it's the Others' fault.
If you listen to that show, you'd have your money buried in jars in the backyard to hide it from the immigrants about to rape you. And you'd have missed the 25% run up in the market this year, which is also the Others' fault.
“They are being fed a dystopian alternate reality”? LOL. Not even close to the dystopian alternate reality fed to the Democrat faithful by their favorite economists after Trump was elected. Your most famous and decorated said the US ecomony would collapse and usher in a world wide recession with no end in sight. Instead the US enjoyed the best year of market returns in 72 years! I’m sure you were outraged by his and other like minded idiots ridiculous predictions. I’m sure you called out all of the left wing sheeples who buried their money in the back yard based on the dire predictions they heard on MSNBC or even CNBC (which I admit I watch). I’m sure but I can’t find any evidence of your outrage back then. How come?
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“They are being fed a dystopian alternate reality”? LOL. Not even close to the dystopian alternate reality fed to the Democrat faithful by their favorite economists after Trump was elected. Your most famous and decorated said the US ecomony would collapse and usher in a world wide recession with no end in sight. Instead the US enjoyed the best year of market returns in 72 years! I’m sure you were outraged by his and other like minded idiots ridiculous predictions. I’m sure you called out all of the left wing sheeples who buried their money in the back yard based on the dire predictions they heard on MSNBC or even CNBC (which I admit I watch). I’m sure but I can’t find any evidence of your outrage back then. How come?
You’re making stuff up again.
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You’re making stuff up again.
What?
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the jobs aren't being replaced, they are jobs that were there before pres dipstick took office, laid off due to covid, then brought back once the recovery began. so yes, nothing was created weekend at bernies isn't creating anything. they haven't spent even a fraction of his "infrastructure" build back better bs (remember that one?)except for a heated sidewalk in new hampshire or some where
your claim of watching fox business and what you got out of it is horse hockey. even i get an occasional nugget out of cramer...like when he says sell, i'm buying
Why do you think that is?
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There are more jobs than pre-Covid. And they're better paying, too.
But this is the Investing Thread.
The market is doing well.
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the jobs aren't being replaced, they are jobs that were there before pres dipstick took office, laid off due to covid, then brought back once the recovery began. so yes, nothing was created weekend at bernies isn't creating anything. they haven't spent even a fraction of his "infrastructure" build back better bs (remember that one?)except for a heated sidewalk in new hampshire or some where
your claim of watching fox business and what you got out of it is horse hockey. even i get an occasional nugget out of cramer...like when he says sell, i'm buying
Ahhhhh, now the crime is that the government...(checks notes)...isn't spending money fast enough? Ok then.
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“They are being fed a dystopian alternate reality”? LOL. Not even close to the dystopian alternate reality fed to the Democrat faithful by their favorite economists after Trump was elected. Your most famous and decorated said the US ecomony would collapse and usher in a world wide recession with no end in sight. Instead the US enjoyed the best year of market returns in 72 years! I’m sure you were outraged by his and other like minded idiots ridiculous predictions. I’m sure you called out all of the left wing sheeples who buried their money in the back yard based on the dire predictions they heard on MSNBC or even CNBC (which I admit I watch). I’m sure but I can’t find any evidence of your outrage back then. How come?
Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow
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Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow
"Remember that columnist that got his prediction totally wrong in 2015!!!?!!?? WHy d'int youSe sAY sUMppin' then??!?!? It's just exactly like a network creating a dystopian alternate reality 24/7/365."
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I think people over 70 should have their driver's licenses revoked and parental controls on their TV and Internet. Time to start protecting our elders from grifters because they don't have the tools to protect themselves.
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I think people over 70 should have their driver's licenses revoked and parental controls on their TV and Internet. Time to start protecting our elders from grifters because they don't have the tools to protect themselves.
I agree with this analysis
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I think people over 70 should have their driver's licenses revoked and parental controls on their TV and Internet. Time to start protecting our elders from grifters because they don't have the tools to protect themselves.
I have had to have uncomfortable conversations with my parents and my wife's parents about media literacy. I've determined that they're basically lost causes.
None of them understand that they're being fed garbage based on what they've clicked on.
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There are more jobs than pre-Covid. And they're better paying, too.
But this is the Investing Thread.
The market is doing well.
This is all true. It also will not stop people from claiming that there aren't more jobs than pre-COVID, and that they aren't better paying...despite all evidence showing otherwise.
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Data, not evidence.
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"Remember that columnist that got his prediction totally wrong in 2015!!!?!!?? WHy d'int youSe sAY sUMppin' then??!?!? It's just exactly like a network creating a dystopian alternate reality 24/7/365."
[/https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-wall-street-effect-markets-230164
It wasn’t just your most famous and decorated economist. Lots of others. You watch 5 minutes of television and draw bizarre conspiracy theories about what a network is “creating”. But the economists calling for crashes if or because Trump won weren’t fomenting panic, they were just bad forecasters. Why? Because of your politics, because of your biases.
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I have had to have uncomfortable conversations with my parents and my wife's parents about media literacy. I've determined that they're basically lost causes.
None of them understand that they're being fed garbage based on what they've clicked on.
Its actually one place where boomers and zoomers are actually very much alike, albeit with fairly different outcomes.
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Its actually one place where boomers and zoomers are actually very much alike, albeit with fairly different outcomes.
Should definitely be a course in high school.
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Data, not evidence.
Now you have me questioning whether grammatically I used the right word. I think evidence is right there, as it is data applied to question/hypothesis, but I was never known for my English grammar abilities.
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Should definitely be a course in high school.
At least Illinois is getting one thing right.
https://www.npr.org/2022/09/14/1122895362/illinois-now-requires-media-literacy-instruction-in-its-high-school-curriculum
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As I said earlier in this thread, there were Obama detractors and Trump detractors who got out of the market because they let their political biases influence their investing decisions … and they missed out on one of the great bull markets ever.
Many of those incorrect people were “foremost experts” at the time.
Some made similar mistakes a year ago … and missed out on huge gains in 2023.
Some of those people are still trying to justify their incorrect decisions by claiming the current economy is in horrible shape. They need to believe that, both as cover for their poor decisions and to satisfy their political biases.
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As I said earlier in this thread, there were Obama detractors and Trump detractors who got out of the market because they let their political biases influence their investing decisions … and they missed out on one of the great bull markets ever.
Many of those incorrect people were “foremost experts” at the time.
Some made similar mistakes a year ago … and missed out on huge gains in 2023.
Some of those people are still trying to justify their incorrect decisions by claiming the current economy is in horrible shape. They need to believe that, both as cover for their poor decisions and to satisfy their political biases.
Mike,
Measured and fair assessment. People on both sides make stupid mistakes because of their politics. “Experts” on both sides make dumb recommendations because of their politics.
Anyone who thinks this in a one sided issue/one way street is dumb, dishonest or both.
As far as predicting that this year was one to stay out of the market, it may have been prudent entering the year. 2022 was the 3rd worst year in the last 50 for the S+P (-19.44%). But as the year unfolded and inflation eased without recession the data driven were back in.
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Mike,
Measured and fair assessment. People on both sides make stupid mistakes because of their politics. “Experts” on both sides make dumb recommendations because of their politics.
Anyone who thinks this in a one sided issue/one way street is dumb, dishonest or both.
As far as predicting that this year was one to stay out of the market, it may have been prudent entering the year. 2022 was the 3rd worst year in the last 50 for the S+P (-19.44%). But as the year unfolded and inflation eased without recession the data driven were back in.
Yet you use terms like “left wing sheeples”
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Yet you use terms like “left wing sheeples”
I used mean spirited hyperbole in response to Smitty’s mean spirited hyperbole. Apologies, but sometimes it’s hard for me to give measured responses to the unreasonable.
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This is just wrong. There are more people employed now than ever.
Also, U.S. output of oil is at an all time high. However, if you listen to the right wing talking heads you would think that Biden has ceased all drilling. All time high, but you will be told by the right that we produced more under Trump. People make decisions off this kind of bad information, and sometimes they get hurt.
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Mike,
Measured and fair assessment. People on both sides make stupid mistakes because of their politics. “Experts” on both sides make dumb recommendations because of their politics.
Anyone who thinks this in a one sided issue/one way street is dumb, dishonest or both.
As far as predicting that this year was one to stay out of the market, it may have been prudent entering the year. 2022 was the 3rd worst year in the last 50 for the S+P (-19.44%). But as the year unfolded and inflation eased without recession the data driven were back in.
Agree on most of this, Tony. The problem with deciding to sell everything and stay out of the market is that Mr. Market doesn’t ring a bell to tell you when to get back in. It’s psychologically difficult to plow significant $$$ into a falling market.
I am a fairly conservative, buy-and-holdish investor. I mostly invest in large-cap, blue-chip, U.S. corporations, the majority of which pay reliable, growing dividends. We also own some bonds and cash.
Our portfolio didn’t suffer anywhere near the loss that the market did in 2022. As a tradeoff, our portfolio hasn’t matched the market’s gain this year, though we did A-OK. Over the 2-year stretch, we outperformed the market.
One thing we didn’t do either year was try to time the market based on pundit predictions or our own political biases. Steady hands; long-term plans. No matter who is in the White House or Congress or the governors’ mansions, year after year, decade after decade.
Boring!
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Also, U.S. output of oil is at an all time high. However, if you listen to the right wing talking heads you would think that Biden has ceased all drilling. All time high, but you will be told by the right that we produced more under Trump. People make decisions off this kind of bad information, and sometimes they get hurt.
Yes!
I've had this discussion with right-leaning friends more than I'd like to admit, and they're consistently surprised when I pull out the receipts.
Want to shock people? Ask them which administration approved more drilling permits, the current one or the previous one.
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If this exact economy had taken place during most of the Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr or Dubya administrations, they and their people would have touted it as healthy and growing. If it had taken place during the Trump administration, he’d have touted it as the best in the history of the United States.
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I used mean spirited hyperbole in response to Smitty’s mean spirited hyperbole. Apologies, but sometimes it’s hard for me to give measured responses to the unreasonable.
Nah, it was more like angrily claiming I was lying about being exposed to Fox Business News and then pretending bothsiderism.
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Nah, it was more like angrily claiming I was lying about being exposed to Fox Business News and then pretending bothsiderism.
Bothsiderism that actually didn’t happen.
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If this exact economy had taken place during most of the Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr or Dubya administrations, they and their people would have touted it as healthy and growing. If it had taken place during the Trump administration, he’d have touted it as the best in the history of the United States.
Kudlow looked extremely constipated when his republican guest economist touted the great economy.
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Smitty and Sultan, what a pair.
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Smitty and Sultan, what a pair.
I agree. Two of our better posters.
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From the Wall Street Journal:
U.S. prices fell in November for the first time since April 2020
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, decreased 0.1% from the previous month, the Commerce Department said. Prices were up 2.6% on the year, not far from the central bank’s 2% target. Brass tacks? The Fed is winning its fight over inflation, with many economists now saying the economy will likely cruise to a soft landing (a.k.a. inflation cools without a recession). Meanwhile, after dealing with crushing price increases and recession fears over the past two years, Americans are more confident in the economy: Consumer sentiment rose 14% to a five-month high in December from the previous month, according to a University of Michigan survey.
FWIW, Fox News ran a headline today that said Bidenomics were crushing consumers, making for a disaster of a Christmas.
Stats, facts, data, evidence, etc ... nomatta
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$787 million says they don't tell the truth.
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$787 million says they don't tell the truth.
Lol
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When does the trickle down economics start trickling down?
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When does the trickle down economics start trickling down?
never when ice cream breath is in charge...too many "dictator" regs getting in the way except for his wall street, silicon valley buds and anyone else with the name biden
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never when ice cream breath is in charge...too many "dictator" regs getting in the way except for his wall street, silicon valley buds and anyone else with the name biden
See, this is why David Joplin wants to transfer.
7.5 out of 10
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When does the trickle down economics start trickling down?
It'll take a while ta get to ewe, hey?
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See, this is why David Joplin wants to transfer.
7.5 out of 10
please elaborate for us here reeko...
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please elaborate for us here reeko...
This is why David Joplin wants to transfer.
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never when ice cream breath is in charge...too many "dictator" regs getting in the way except for his wall street, silicon valley buds and anyone else with the name biden
lol, inflation below 2%, GDP at 4.9%, historically low unemployment, more people working than pre COVID, outpacing all large economies around the world, all time Dow Jones highs, but yeah, Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Hunter Biden are the only ones benefiting.
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And China.
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This is why David Joplin wants to transfer.
no, jop told me it's people like reeeko the stalker that freak him out
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lol, inflation below 2%, GDP at 4.9%, historically low unemployment, more people working than pre COVID, outpacing all large economies around the world, all time Dow Jones highs, but yeah, Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Hunter Biden are the only ones benefiting.
yes, things are improving...as we get closer to election, but inflation is not below 2%-sorry. gas prices coming down is huge. the fact that the feds might hold the line of the interest rates is good news. still gotta get rid of the strangling regs, especially on energy. let free market determine EV and the such
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no, jop told me it's people like reeeko the stalker that freak him out
No, it’s the thinly veiled racism and appropriation of MLK
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yes, things are improving...as we get closer to election, but inflation is not below 2%-sorry. gas prices coming down is huge. the fact that the feds might hold the line of the interest rates is good news. still gotta get rid of the strangling regs, especially on energy. let free market determine EV and the such
6 months and running at 1.9%, oops.
https://x.com/justinwolfers/status/1738205044829249862?s=46&t=1VPsVLoWWbtblV9sGVm3Jg
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6 months and running at 1.9%, oops.
https://x.com/justinwolfers/status/1738205044829249862?s=46&t=1VPsVLoWWbtblV9sGVm3Jg
That guy is a college prof. so probably in the bag for the big guy
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yes, things are improving...as we get closer to election, but inflation is not below 2%-sorry. gas prices coming down is huge. the fact that the feds might hold the line of the interest rates is good news. still gotta get rid of the strangling regs, especially on energy. let free market determine EV and the such
There are no "strangling regs" as has been shown in the posts above. We are pumping more oil out of the ground than at any time in history. We may have regs, but they aren't strangling anything. And your free market approach is a good one, but it depends on precisely what you mean. Less regulation is okay, but we need rules (regulations) that will apply to how we do some things in America. You know, like trains full of chemicals going through small cities in middle America. Take away the rules (regulations) and what happens? Well .....
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There are no "strangling regs" as has been shown in the posts above. We are pumping more oil out of the ground than at any time in history. We may have regs, but they aren't strangling anything. And your free market approach is a good one, but it depends on precisely what you mean. Less regulation is okay, but we need rules (regulations) that will apply to how we do some things in America. You know, like trains full of chemicals going through small cities in middle America. Take away the rules (regulations) and what happens? Well .....
Yeah it’s like people willfully ignore the fact that the United States is the worlds largest petroleum producer.
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Yeah it’s like people willfully ignore the fact that the United States is the worlds largest petroleum producer.
I wouldn’t say it’s willfully ignorant as much as it’s just a delay in understanding, which is not at all uncommon. The US surpassed Russia and SA in what, 2018? So for most people, they learned about oil as kids and college students and their entire adult lives had the US as a major producer but not the top dawg like the US is now.
That isn’t excusing the ignorance that has people thinking the US is behind places like Iraq or other smaller MEA producers
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I wouldn’t say it’s willfully ignorant as much as it’s just a delay in understanding, which is not at all uncommon. The US surpassed Russia and SA in what, 2018? So for most people, they learned about oil as kids and college students and their entire adult lives had the US as a major producer but not the top dawg like the US is now.
Five years to judge?
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I wouldn’t say it’s willfully ignorant as much as it’s just a delay in understanding, which is not at all uncommon. The US surpassed Russia and SA in what, 2018? So for most people, they learned about oil as kids and college students and their entire adult lives had the US as a major producer but not the top dawg like the US is now.
That isn’t excusing the ignorance that has people thinking the US is behind places like Iraq or other smaller MEA producers
Wags, it is absolutely willful ignorance. Look, just read above where one of our fellow posters cites regulation as impeding our ability to produce oil. When it is pointed out that he is mistaken, does he come back and say “hey fellas, good point, I didn’t know about that?” No, he continues to push his “regulations” theme. I’m good with calling that willful ignorance. And, this is repeated by those on the right over and over again.
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yes, things are improving...as we get closer to election, but inflation is not below 2%-sorry. gas prices coming down is huge. the fact that the feds might hold the line of the interest rates is good news. still gotta get rid of the strangling regs, especially on energy. let free market determine EV and the such
Not that facts, data, or information will penetrate your brain, but:
The United States is producing more oil than any country in history
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/business/us-production-oil-reserves-crude/index.html#:~:text=Last%20month%2C%20weekly%20US%20oil,sent%20output%20and%20prices%20crashing.
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I wouldn’t say it’s willfully ignorant as much as it’s just a delay in understanding, which is not at all uncommon. The US surpassed Russia and SA in what, 2018? So for most people, they learned about oil as kids and college students and their entire adult lives had the US as a major producer but not the top dawg like the US is now.
That isn’t excusing the ignorance that has people thinking the US is behind places like Iraq or other smaller MEA producers
It's willful ignorance, yes, as well as parroting everything they see on Fox News.
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Not that facts, data, or information will penetrate your brain, but:
The United States is producing more oil than any country in history
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/business/us-production-oil-reserves-crude/index.html#:~:text=Last%20month%2C%20weekly%20US%20oil,sent%20output%20and%20prices%20crashing.
this is all fine and great at the moment, but understand(if you can??) his regulations will not have an impact TODAY!! just give them a few months or so. ya ever hear of boiling the frog? btw, ya getting rid of your gas stove yet? either has heels up harry
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this is all fine and great at the moment, but understand(if you can??) his regulations will not have an impact TODAY!! just give them a few months or so. ya ever hear of boiling the frog? btw, ya getting rid of your gas stove yet? either has heels up harry
9 out of 10
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this is all fine and great at the moment, but understand(if you can??) his regulations will not have an impact TODAY!! just give them a few months or so. ya ever hear of boiling the frog? btw, ya getting rid of your gas stove yet? either has heels up harry
How do you feel about fluoride in water? Eliminating lead in paint or gasoline?
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How do you feel about fluoride in water? Eliminating lead in paint or gasoline?
or microchips in vaccines
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or microchips in vaccines
or kitty litter in classrooms.
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this is all fine and great at the moment, but understand(if you can??) his regulations will not have an impact TODAY!! just give them a few months or so. ya ever hear of boiling the frog? btw, ya getting rid of your gas stove yet? either has heels up harry
And in a few months those Ivermectin studies will be coming out, too.
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It's got to be an act, right? It simply has to be. Nobody can be THAT ignorant about that many subjects, right?
Anyhoo ... It's the Investing Thread, folks. I hope it's been a fruitful year for everyone!
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FWIW, I was speaking to “willful ignorance” of the general population not realizing what the US’ more recent surge to top oil producer, as opposed to pure partisan bias. But if we’re talking in the thread and amongst posters, then I don’t have any disagreements
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this is all fine and great at the moment, but understand(if you can??) his regulations will not have an impact TODAY!! just give them a few months or so. ya ever hear of boiling the frog? btw, ya getting rid of your gas stove yet? either has heels up harry
lol. What?
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It's got to be an act, right? It simply has to be. Nobody can be THAT ignorant about that many subjects, right?
Anyhoo ... It's the Investing Thread, folks. I hope it's been a fruitful year for everyone!
It was. Life is good.
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It was. Life is good.
82 and Jockey, I agree it has been a great 2023. Here's to an even better 2024.
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I don't see or hear any signs of slowdowns in 2024 (im also not a cfp or cfa so who knows). Markets usually wait and see during election years? Market withstood major macro disruptions this year and went higher and higher
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I am into long term investing. Haven’t looked at any of my portfolios in 6 months. Guess i will do that on Christmas morning and see what has happened .
Had lunch about a month ago with one of the largest bank CEOs ( one of top two) . He told a small group of us that he was lobbying hard with the Fed for a soft landing . Seems like he is successful.
We are seeing heavy handed regulation all through our industry . My peers are reluctant to make capital commitments unless a project is absolutely necessary.
Also , while Oil is pumping , it is hard to obtain new drilling permits. Gas prices are down as they always are this time of year. When summer driving season kicks in they will be back up.
Election in 2024 will have a lot of consequences .
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I am into long term investing. Haven’t looked at any of my portfolios in 6 months. Guess i will do that on Christmas morning and see what has happened .
Had lunch about a month ago with one of the largest bank CEOs ( one of top two) . He told a small group of us that he was lobbying hard with the Fed for a soft landing . Seems like he is successful.
We are seeing heavy handed regulation all through our industry . My peers are reluctant to make capital commitments unless a project is absolutely necessary.
Also , while Oil is pumping , it is hard to obtain new drilling permits. Gas prices are down as they always are this time of year. When summer driving season kicks in they will be back up.
Election in 2024 will have a lot of consequences .
Your peers are idiots
They’d have probably traded Jordan Love
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So many unused leases as big oil is not inclined to drill as they don't think there is a long range future for petroleum. Stupid market forces. I am of the opinion that, due to the charging grid not being ready to handle full electrification, the transition to electric cars will be slower than expected. Not enough chargers. My bottom line prediction is that big oil will start cautiously drilling on the most promising sites in the next couple of years, as they decide there is still money to be made.
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So many unused leases as big oil is not inclined to drill as they don't think there is a long range future for petroleum. Stupid market forces. I am of the opinion that, due to the charging grid not being ready to handle full electrification, the transition to electric cars will be slower than expected. Not enough chargers. My bottom line prediction is that big oil will start cautiously drilling on the most promising sites in the next couple of years, as they decide there is still money to be made.
Gas prices are historically down during heavy travel seasons and winter
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Had lunch about a month ago with one of the largest bank CEOs ( one of top two) . He told a small group of us that he was lobbying hard with the Fed for a soft landing . Seems like he is successful.
Does he also post 70 links a day to a college basketball message board?
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Does he also post 70 links a day to a college basketball message board?
I realize a lot of people have their internet personas. But is any of them less believable that Herman?
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lol. What?
you do understand that once a regulation is implemented, you will not feel it's affect tomorrow, yes? that's all
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And in a few months those Ivermectin studies will be coming out, too.
nice deflection. so in other words you still do not understand like sully
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you do understand that once a regulation is implemented, you will not feel it's affect tomorrow, yes? that's all
Sure bud.
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I realize a lot of people have their internet personas. But is any of them less believable that Herman?
MUFINY tore himself away from posting NY Post links long enough to allow Brian Moynihan (or maybe Jamie Dimon) to have lunch with him. Turns out the Fed was planning on a hard landing for the economy until Moynihan (or Dimon) lobbied for a soft landing, upon which the Fed said, "Oh, OK, I guess we'll try for a soft landing."
After lunch, MUFINY went back to tracking the hourly movements of the Hausers and Aaron Rodgers.
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I had lunch with an interior decorator this week. She and her sister companies are inundated with work redesigning offices in the Midwest. Corporate spend on non-necessities is up.
According to my bud that runs a global 3PL firm there are still plenty of soft spots where companies haven't recovered from the recession, but other industries are growing so rapidly that the 3PL firm is having to unexpectedly shift resources around.
Good news, anecdotally.
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MUFINY tore himself away from posting NY Post links long enough to allow Brian Moynihan (or maybe Jamie Dimon) to have lunch with him. Turns out the Fed was planning on a hard landing for the economy until Moynihan (or Dimon) lobbied for a soft landing, upon which the Fed said, "Oh, OK, I guess we'll try for a soft landing."
After lunch, MUFINY went back to tracking the hourly movements of the Hausers and Aaron Rodgers.
I was at that lunch with him. Everything he said is true. Then he reminisced about what 70’s actress he had crushes on and finally spilled the story about Quentin Grimes body language during his official
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TSLA, which had a miserable 2022 (-65%), has rebounded and is up more than 100% this year.
Even with this year's gain, TSLA is only up 14% since the start of 2021 - one of my bigger laggards over the 3 years. Compare that to the 3-year total returns of MSFT (73%), AAPL (49%) or even "boring" stocks like MCD (48%), HD (38%) and CTBI (36%).
I did buy a little more TSLA last year, but it's a relatively small position for me. I have a couple friends who loaded up pretty good when it was down under $125 last year, and they're smiling big. They aren't Musk fans, but they are fans of making money.
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I invest in management teams. Elon is not a team player and he is not a good manager. I would have trouble letting him manage my money.
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I had lunch with an interior decorator this week. She and her sister companies are inundated with work redesigning offices in the Midwest. Corporate spend on non-necessities is up.
According to my bud that runs a global 3PL firm there are still plenty of soft spots where companies haven't recovered from the recession, but other industries are growing so rapidly that the 3PL firm is having to unexpectedly shift resources around.
Good news, anecdotally.
Skat, did you get a sense for what sort of redesigning is happening? More shared space/smaller footprint, or something else?
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I invest in management teams. Elon is not a team player and he is not a good manager. I would have trouble letting him manage my money.
I agree with the general notion of investing only in management one believes in. It's so important to be able to trust those running the companies we invest in.
I've been reading the Musk biography by Walter Isaacson. Truly a fascinating, mercurial man - part genius, part bully, part immature little boy. Big risk-taker who has mostly got away with (and benefited hugely from) taking big risks. Psychologically abused by his father, a lonely person with few friends, doesn't care what people think one minute but cares deeply about what people think the next.
I wouldn't blame anybody for choosing not to invest money in his decisions, especially now that the "easy money" has been made with TSLA and now that Musk has let his personal political biases inform many of his decisions.
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MUFINY tore himself away from posting NY Post links long enough to allow Brian Moynihan (or maybe Jamie Dimon) to have lunch with him. Turns out the Fed was planning on a hard landing for the economy until Moynihan (or Dimon) lobbied for a soft landing, upon which the Fed said, "Oh, OK, I guess we'll try for a soft landing."
After lunch, MUFINY went back to tracking the hourly movements of the Hausers and Aaron Rodgers.
So good.
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Skat, did you get a sense for what sort of redesigning is happening? More shared space/smaller footprint, or something else?
Reconfiguration of space to facilitate diverse work styles like different conversation/meeting areas with different vibes that are more casual. Gathering places that are less private that aren't the cafeteria to give a sense of camaraderie at work when people are in the office. Shrinking of desk/cube areas since it's rare that over 60% of employees are in the office anymore. Investment in technology to support hybrid remote staff being integrated back into the office. Redesigning traditional tech company spaces to be warmer, more feminine to help make those spaces more comfortable for non-male folks.
All fun nice-to-have changes to help with recruiting, help with retention, help draw people from their home offices back into the office sometimes. Nothing terribly profound beyond the willingness to spend on nice-to-haves.
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Reconfiguration of space to facilitate diverse work styles like different conversation/meeting areas with different vibes that are more casual. Gathering places that are less private that aren't the cafeteria to give a sense of camaraderie at work when people are in the office. Shrinking of desk/cube areas since it's rare that over 60% of employees are in the office anymore. Investment in technology to support hybrid remote staff being integrated back into the office. Redesigning traditional tech company spaces to be warmer, more feminine to help make those spaces more comfortable for non-male folks.
All fun nice-to-have changes to help with recruiting, help with retention, help draw people from their home offices back into the office sometimes. Nothing terribly profound beyond the willingness to spend on nice-to-haves.
Got it, thank you.
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Toyota stock is approaching its 52-week high as the company capped a banner year.
From Seeking Alpha:
Japanese automaker Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) Wednesday reported a record 11% jump in global production of 926,573 vehicles, while worldwide sales advanced 14% from a year earlier supported by strong demand in domestic and international markets.
Domestic sales for the month climbed 27%, sales in both the United States and China increased by about 17%, while those in Europe climbed 15%, the company said in a statement.
"Continuing from last month, sales (in North America) were up year-on-year as a result of strong demand for hybrid vehicles such as the RAV4 and Corolla HEVs in addition to semiconductor shortages trending toward recovery," Toyota said.
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They are going to sell a crap load of hybrids for the next few years. And if they actually achieve 700 mile range for EV's, they are going to clean up beyond belief.
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Toyota stock is approaching its 52-week high as the company capped a banner year.
From Seeking Alpha:
Japanese automaker Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) Wednesday reported a record 11% jump in global production of 926,573 vehicles, while worldwide sales advanced 14% from a year earlier supported by strong demand in domestic and international markets.
Domestic sales for the month climbed 27%, sales in both the United States and China increased by about 17%, while those in Europe climbed 15%, the company said in a statement.
"Continuing from last month, sales (in North America) were up year-on-year as a result of strong demand for hybrid vehicles such as the RAV4 and Corolla HEVs in addition to semiconductor shortages trending toward recovery," Toyota said.
I keep reading articles about their solid-state batteries that are very far in development and already planned for production. If what I read that Toyota reports about them, they have a game changing EV battery.
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I keep reading articles about their solid-state batteries that are very far in development and already planned for production. If what I read that Toyota reports about them, they have a game changing EV battery.
Reports about car-battery evolution, regardless of maker, have often been greatly exaggerated. I share your hope about Toyota's project coming to fruition.
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American Association of Individual Investors highlights a bullish sentiment shift
From Seeking Alpha:
As the S&P 500 continues its climb into the closing days of 2023, the American Association of Individual Investors noted that there has been an underlying shift towards a bullish position as many bearish investor viewpoints have faded.
According to a sentiment survey put together by the organization as of December 27, data shows 46.3% of investors are bullish on the broader market. 25.1% hold a bearish stance, and 28.6% remain neutral.
Meanwhile, back on Nov. 1, only 24.3% of individuals held a bullish point of view while 50.3% looked at the market from a bearish lens.
For reference, the S&P 500 currently trades at 4,781, which is only a few points away from its all-time trading high of 4,818 which was recorded back on Jan. 4, 2022. With just Thursday and Friday remaining in the 2023 trading year, the S&P 500 would need to advance roughly 0.7% to notch a new record high by the end of the year.
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Will someone call the White House and tell Uncle Joe to calm down with the economic stuff? These stock market gains are getting ridiculous and now I'm walking around with a wallet fatter than George Costanza's. Really, Joe, save some of the economic success for 2024. Is that too much to ask?
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Will someone call the White House and tell Uncle Joe to calm down with the economic stuff? These stock market gains are getting ridiculous and now I'm walking around with a wallet fatter than George Costanza's. Really, Joe, save some of the economic success for 2024. Is that too much to ask?
You joke, but its far from uncommon to try and aim for/position economic bursts that drive the market closer to elections. Right or wrong, a completely sensible and healthy pullback in mid 2024 will make people forget about this hot run cause general populations are doofuses.
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From U.S. News and World Reports:
Since 1952, the S&P 500 has averaged a 7% gain during U.S. presidential election years. While a 7% gain is far from disastrous, it is also well short of the 17% average S&P 500 gain in the year prior to an election year. It's also below the roughly 10% average annual total return for the S&P 500 in a typical year. Of course, it's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future returns, and there have only been 17 presidential elections since 1952.
The good news for investors heading into 2024 is that the S&P 500 has not declined during a presidential re-election year since 1952 and has averaged a 12.2% annual gain in re-election years.
The presidential election is only one of many factors that influence the stock market during election years, but analysts say there is good reason for investors to expect strong returns in re-election years like 2024.
Jeffrey Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial, says presidents seeking re-election will often "prime the pump" by implementing fiscal stimulus measures and pro-growth regulatory policies to support the economy and the labor market.
"Every president who avoided recession two years before their re-election went on to win, and every president who had a recession within two years before their re-election went on to lose," Buchbinder says.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/election-2024-how-stocks-perform-in-election-years
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This article came up in my Google news feed
Interesting read comparing now and 100 years ago.
The Roaring '20s are so back, baby! (Probably. OK, maybe … hopefully?)
Matthew Fox Dec 27, 2023, 7:40 AM ET
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-economy-decade-outlook-roaring-20s-investors-crash-chances-2023-12?amp
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This article came up in my Google news feed
Interesting read comparing now and 100 years ago.
The Roaring '20s are so back, baby! (Probably. OK, maybe … hopefully?)
Matthew Fox Dec 27, 2023, 7:40 AM ET
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-economy-decade-outlook-roaring-20s-investors-crash-chances-2023-12?amp
Article is behind a paywall, but I get the idea.
I'm hopeful we're gonna have a great decade for investing, but I admit I'm always concerned when the term "this time it's different" is used!
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Article is behind a paywall, but I get the idea.
I'm hopeful we're gonna have a great decade for investing, but I admit I'm always concerned when the term "this time it's different" is used!
The Roaring '20s are so back, baby! (Probably. OK, maybe … hopefully?)
Matthew Fox Dec 27, 2023, 7:40 AM ET
The Roaring '20s could be back as the stock market and economy show signs of strengthening.
The winding down of a pandemic, a strong US consumer, and record highs in the stock market are just a few similarities between the 1920s and today.
But while the Roaring '20s ended with a stock-market crash and the Great Depression in 1929, experts say this time is different.
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The winding down of a pandemic, a strengthening US consumer, and record highs in the stock market.
Today's headlines sound a lot like the articles that were printed in newspapers across the US during the 1920s, when America was experiencing an economic boom driven by consumer spending and technological innovations following the end of World War I and the Spanish flu pandemic.
"The parallels are quite similar," NorthEnd Private Wealth's chief investment officer, Alex McGrath, told Business Insider.
Those similarities have sparked some speculation on Wall Street that America is again heading for a prolonged economic boom that will drive the stock market to new heights, akin to what happened a century ago.
So, are the Roaring '20s actually back?
The market veteran Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research sure seems to think we're back in the Roaring '20s, and he says it's likely to be driven by a surge in productivity that is unlocked by technological innovations.
In a series of research notes over the past few months, Yardeni has argued that adopting artificial intelligence could help boost efficiencies and profits at companies across various industries.
Productivity growth is essential because it can help expand employee wage growth without the negative byproduct of increasing inflation. That would be a Goldilocks scenario for the economy, as the Federal Reserve wouldn't be forced to limit growth via interest-rate hikes, as it attempted to do throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023.
"Artificial intelligence is just one of several technological innovations that are likely to drive the economy during the Roaring 2020s," Yardeni said in a note over the summer.
We've seen this scenario before, where technology helps drive efficiencies and sustained economic growth.
In the 1920s, a slew of technological innovations helped employees increase their efficiency, companies boost profits, and consumers save time. This was unlocked by the widespread adoption of cars, electricity, agricultural machinery, the telephone, the radio, and even household appliances like the refrigerator.
Demand for these new products sparked the creation of today's consumer credit system, with banks and companies directly offering customers loans and pay-as-you-go arrangements to boost product purchases, not unlike the recent rise of buy now, pay later.
The advent of consumer credit further fueled the economic boom of the 1920s, which was characterized by 20% annual returns in the stock market, Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield told BI.
"We do expect that low double-digit stock market returns could persist for the next five to seven years until the next Fed tightening cycle," Hatfield said. "Sustainable stock market returns are primarily driven by earnings growth, not multiple expansion, so we believe that low teens returns are more likely and sustainable."
If those gains materialize, the S&P 500 would be trading above 10,000 by 2030, more than double today's levels.
That thinking lines up with Carson Group's global macro strategist Sonu Varghese, who said in a note earlier this month that US stocks would be the best investment over the next five years, with a potential upside of 100%. A sustained rebound in productivity growth was the major bullish factor behind Varghese's forecast.
Not so fast
But the economy isn't out of the woods just yet, with some strategists on Wall Street still expecting a recession to materialize in 2024. And that would undoubtedly throw a wrench into the Roaring '20s narrative.
"It is premature to suggest happy days are here again," US Bank Wealth Management's chief equity strategist Terry Sandven told BI. "Higher-for-longer inflation and interest rates, the potential for corporate earnings pressures and already-evaluated valuations temper our cautiously optimistic outlook."
Sandven said he expected more sideways "chop" in the stock market next year, reversing this year's trend of strong market gains.
McGrath, the NorthEnd CIO, says this year's trend of strong economic growth could reverse in 2024.
"Economic growth has certainly surprised to the upside in 2023, but that narrative may become more muted as the lingering effects of higher rates take hold in our country and across the globe," he said.
A return of the Roaring '20s seems to hinge on what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will do with interest rates in 2024, combined with how long the consumer and jobs market can remain resilient.
The specter of the 1929 Great Depression
According to Sam Stovall, the chief investment strategist of CFRA Research, the question to ask isn't whether the Roaring '20s are back. He's instead wondering whether an era of extended prosperity will end with the same thud it did a century ago, when the Great Depression struck in 1929 alongside an 89% plunge in the Dow.
The aforementioned tech advancements and the consumer-credit system that fueled so much growth ended up being double-edged swords.
"We had similar conditions (consumer demand, economic expansion, technological innovations) after World War II. So I guess the real, underlying question is, 'Could the US stock market be setting itself up for a 1929-like crash?'" Stovall told BI.
Such a decline would mean complete and utter devastation for investors, consumers, and the global economy.
But Stovall isn't worried, and stresses that this time is different. He says assorted checks and balances that didn't previously exist have since been put into place.
"I would say no, because financial market conditions today are very unlike those of the 1920s," he said. "In fact, we now have regulatory bodies and trading rules in place to avoid such outcomes as we endured in the aftermath of the crash."
For example, investors can't buy stocks on 90% margin as they could during the 1920s, Stovall said.
So while the similarities between today and 100 years ago are uncanny, the consensus seems to be that whatever age of prosperity awaits will stop short of ending in a cataclysmic, 1929-style disaster.
If a true Roaring '20s is upon us, then it's a great time for stock investors and economists to buckle in and enjoy the ride
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What's incredible is that all of this economic goodness is coming while the Fed raises rates at an unprecedented pace. It truly is hard to believe that the economy is humming along, the stock market is rising, and unemployment is so low after an increase in rates from essentially 0% to 5.5%. Simply amazing.
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The Roaring '20s are so back, baby! (Probably. OK, maybe … hopefully?)
Matthew Fox Dec 27, 2023, 7:40 AM ET
The Roaring '20s could be back as the stock market and economy show signs of strengthening.
The winding down of a pandemic, a strong US consumer, and record highs in the stock market are just a few similarities between the 1920s and today.
But while the Roaring '20s ended with a stock-market crash and the Great Depression in 1929, experts say this time is different.
Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read preview
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The winding down of a pandemic, a strengthening US consumer, and record highs in the stock market.
Today's headlines sound a lot like the articles that were printed in newspapers across the US during the 1920s, when America was experiencing an economic boom driven by consumer spending and technological innovations following the end of World War I and the Spanish flu pandemic.
"The parallels are quite similar," NorthEnd Private Wealth's chief investment officer, Alex McGrath, told Business Insider.
Those similarities have sparked some speculation on Wall Street that America is again heading for a prolonged economic boom that will drive the stock market to new heights, akin to what happened a century ago.
So, are the Roaring '20s actually back?
The market veteran Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research sure seems to think we're back in the Roaring '20s, and he says it's likely to be driven by a surge in productivity that is unlocked by technological innovations.
In a series of research notes over the past few months, Yardeni has argued that adopting artificial intelligence could help boost efficiencies and profits at companies across various industries.
Productivity growth is essential because it can help expand employee wage growth without the negative byproduct of increasing inflation. That would be a Goldilocks scenario for the economy, as the Federal Reserve wouldn't be forced to limit growth via interest-rate hikes, as it attempted to do throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023.
"Artificial intelligence is just one of several technological innovations that are likely to drive the economy during the Roaring 2020s," Yardeni said in a note over the summer.
We've seen this scenario before, where technology helps drive efficiencies and sustained economic growth.
In the 1920s, a slew of technological innovations helped employees increase their efficiency, companies boost profits, and consumers save time. This was unlocked by the widespread adoption of cars, electricity, agricultural machinery, the telephone, the radio, and even household appliances like the refrigerator.
Demand for these new products sparked the creation of today's consumer credit system, with banks and companies directly offering customers loans and pay-as-you-go arrangements to boost product purchases, not unlike the recent rise of buy now, pay later.
The advent of consumer credit further fueled the economic boom of the 1920s, which was characterized by 20% annual returns in the stock market, Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield told BI.
"We do expect that low double-digit stock market returns could persist for the next five to seven years until the next Fed tightening cycle," Hatfield said. "Sustainable stock market returns are primarily driven by earnings growth, not multiple expansion, so we believe that low teens returns are more likely and sustainable."
If those gains materialize, the S&P 500 would be trading above 10,000 by 2030, more than double today's levels.
That thinking lines up with Carson Group's global macro strategist Sonu Varghese, who said in a note earlier this month that US stocks would be the best investment over the next five years, with a potential upside of 100%. A sustained rebound in productivity growth was the major bullish factor behind Varghese's forecast.
Not so fast
But the economy isn't out of the woods just yet, with some strategists on Wall Street still expecting a recession to materialize in 2024. And that would undoubtedly throw a wrench into the Roaring '20s narrative.
"It is premature to suggest happy days are here again," US Bank Wealth Management's chief equity strategist Terry Sandven told BI. "Higher-for-longer inflation and interest rates, the potential for corporate earnings pressures and already-evaluated valuations temper our cautiously optimistic outlook."
Sandven said he expected more sideways "chop" in the stock market next year, reversing this year's trend of strong market gains.
McGrath, the NorthEnd CIO, says this year's trend of strong economic growth could reverse in 2024.
"Economic growth has certainly surprised to the upside in 2023, but that narrative may become more muted as the lingering effects of higher rates take hold in our country and across the globe," he said.
A return of the Roaring '20s seems to hinge on what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will do with interest rates in 2024, combined with how long the consumer and jobs market can remain resilient.
The specter of the 1929 Great Depression
According to Sam Stovall, the chief investment strategist of CFRA Research, the question to ask isn't whether the Roaring '20s are back. He's instead wondering whether an era of extended prosperity will end with the same thud it did a century ago, when the Great Depression struck in 1929 alongside an 89% plunge in the Dow.
The aforementioned tech advancements and the consumer-credit system that fueled so much growth ended up being double-edged swords.
"We had similar conditions (consumer demand, economic expansion, technological innovations) after World War II. So I guess the real, underlying question is, 'Could the US stock market be setting itself up for a 1929-like crash?'" Stovall told BI.
Such a decline would mean complete and utter devastation for investors, consumers, and the global economy.
But Stovall isn't worried, and stresses that this time is different. He says assorted checks and balances that didn't previously exist have since been put into place.
"I would say no, because financial market conditions today are very unlike those of the 1920s," he said. "In fact, we now have regulatory bodies and trading rules in place to avoid such outcomes as we endured in the aftermath of the crash."
For example, investors can't buy stocks on 90% margin as they could during the 1920s, Stovall said.
So while the similarities between today and 100 years ago are uncanny, the consensus seems to be that whatever age of prosperity awaits will stop short of ending in a cataclysmic, 1929-style disaster.
If a true Roaring '20s is upon us, then it's a great time for stock investors and economists to buckle in and enjoy the ride
Thanks for posting. I'm skeptical of the concept that we're in the Roaring 20s Part II and that Great Depression Part II will occur in 5-6 years, but who really knows? Not the "experts."
It's fun to look back a year ago and read what analysts were predicting for 2023. Most expected slight gains, several predicted market declines with a recession to boot. Nobody I could find predicted SPY to gain 25%.
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I've had 2 friends that own businesses have their ERC credits come in to the tune of ~10% of their annual payroll. Huge boost for small businesses that didn't lay employees off over the pandemic. The PPP $$ they took was deducted from their credit as you'd expect, but still a decent bump.
https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/employee-retention-credit
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What's incredible is that all of this economic goodness is coming while the Fed raises rates at an unprecedented pace. It truly is hard to believe that the economy is humming along, the stock market is rising, and unemployment is so low after an increase in rates from essentially 0% to 5.5%. Simply amazing.
I don’t get it. It feels like there’s a bubble somewhere, but it just never bursts. Housing affordability and homelessness are very high though.
Can’t complain about my portfolio too much though, I’m lucky.
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The housing market will flatten when the boomers downsize and simplify. A fair amount of two and three home families out there.
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PLM
I thought there would be multiple bubbles burst over last 18 months and was flat out wrong. Hope I continue being wrong for another 25 years.
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Thanks for posting. I'm skeptical of the concept that we're in the Roaring 20s Part II and that Great Depression Part II will occur in 5-6 years, but who really knows? Not the "experts."
It's fun to look back a year ago and read what analysts were predicting for 2023. Most expected slight gains, several predicted market declines with a recession to boot. Nobody I could find predicted SPY to gain 25%.
In Jan '23 many seemed to be skeptical of a soft landing and now look at us. To me it seems like the Fed pulled it off with very little recessionary fear remaining. The AI speculation and housing market are the two things I worry about, but also not worried much...what a time.
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I just locked 250k into a cd at 5.5 % for 12 months. Normally try to stick away from CDs but with a presidential election coming up I have no idea how the economy is going to adjust.
Alliant has a 25% bonus for annuity's but unless you are nearing retirement, not sure you would want to lock your funds until your 59.5. If you deposit $100,000 you get a $25,000 bonus plus a guaranteed return of 7.5% the first year. Meaning you would have $139,000 at the end of year one.
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In Jan '23 many seemed to be skeptical of a soft landing and now look at us. To me it seems like the Fed pulled it off with very little recessionary fear remaining. The AI speculation and housing market are the two things I worry about, but also not worried much...what a time.
Interest rates are already down to 6.6% from 8 just two months ago. With this CD's are beginning to go down. If I had to guess we will never see 3% again in our lifetimes but I think we could see mid 4's in a year or two.
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Thanks for posting. I'm skeptical of the concept that we're in the Roaring 20s Part II and that Great Depression Part II will occur in 5-6 years, but who really knows? Not the "experts."
It's fun to look back a year ago and read what analysts were predicting for 2023. Most expected slight gains, several predicted market declines with a recession to boot. Nobody I could find predicted SPY to gain 25%.
2008 is probably the closest we will get to a Great Depression given the regulatory systems currently in place and our government's willingness to borrow to prop up consumption. 2020 shows that government spending can be effectively used to prop up an economy when it is needed.
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Sultan
I agree. I believe 2008 showed what lengths the government will go to to protect the economy. We saw it again in the pandemic. While I completely disagree with the government being involved, it proved to me it would take a super catastrophic event to completely derail the economy. Imo, that is not the government’s job, but it is fact of life.
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2008 is probably the closest we will get to a Great Depression given the regulatory systems currently in place and our government's willingness to borrow to prop up consumption. 2020 shows that government spending can be effectively used to prop up an economy when it is needed.
On your first sentence ... here's hoping! On your second, I agree.
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My strong belief is that the Great Depression would not happen today outside of some catastrophic environmental or man-made event. The circumstances that lead to Black Monday are nowhere similar to where they are now, and even if that event occurred again, it would rapidly be blunted by governmental intervention. The Depression IMO was worsened by the fact that we didn't have a full understanding of the levers we could pull at the time.
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I think the levers are there for the government to cover their ass. I wish I believed they were there to protect the citizens, but believe they are used to hide 25+ years of mistakes and corruption on their part.
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I think the levers are there for the government to cover their ass. I wish I believed they were there to protect the citizens, but believe they are used to hide 25+ years of mistakes and corruption on their part.
I don't think we passed COVID relief packages to cover government mistakes and corruption.
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Sultan
No, but they printed and spent money without any concern of the consequences. That said, I think every second of every day is spent covering up mistakes and corruption. Only mentioned the pandemic because by almost definition of catastrophic, the pandemic met catastrophic in my book.
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I think the levers are there for the government to cover their ass. I wish I believed they were there to protect the citizens, but believe they are used to hide 25+ years of mistakes and corruption on their part.
That stretches back further than 25 years.
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Sultan
No, but they printed and spent money without any concern of the consequences. That said, I think every second of every day is spent covering up mistakes and corruption. Only mentioned the pandemic because by almost definition of catastrophic, the pandemic met catastrophic in my book.
I'm not sure what the consequences were.
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On Musk and Tesla have to agree 100%. A lot of bad with the good. I didn’t buy Tesla for a long time, due to Musk. The product is like the iPhone, but with a genius child at the helm - maybe a Steve Jobs - not a Tim Cook.
Musk is also less about shareholder value and more about the product and advances in tech and pushing the boundaries of tech and manufacturing. Everything is rethought and done in new ways always. That’s great when it works. And they have leapt over traditional car makers in manufacturing efficiencies - I didn’t t see that coming. It has worked out, but that was a little scary when you’re betting the company over and over. Maybe they are at the point now where they are no longer betting the company on each new product.
From an investment point of view, that always scared me. Product over shareholders. I finally bit in a small way when it got down to low 100s. Couldn’t resist and wanted to have some in the portfolio. So far so good. But I still consider it a bit risky.
But I’ not an individual stock guy anyway. Vanguard philosophy all the way. Consistently dump money in and ignore it. Only own a few individual companies and Birkshire as a way of owning equities with less downside in tough times. Index funds all the way, only way over the long term for me. Take a few individual stocks in at the right time, and ignore.
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Hards
I do think the government’s non stop printing of money has consequences. It has been a great thing for the stock market and a nice segment of people benefited from that. IMO, that has come with a very big cost to the overall economy.
There were/are a lot of things broken in our economic system and that is troublesome from my perspective. First, I believe making money is hard and easy made money is not a long term positive. For argument sake, if someone had a $500k in their retirement plan and was 100% in the S&P this year, they made roughly $125k. That $125k makes people feel smarter than they are and reckless spending is east do if you think you are smarter than you really are.
That is great for them, but many took years or decades to hit $500k and that $125k windfall changes perspective on one’s wealth. Spending habits change, thinking you can help grown children comes into play and it changed the overall economy.
I have said on here many times that a very smart man once told me that if you do not think $100k is a lot of money, see how hard it is to save $100k. The divide in society continues to get larger and the cost of living is in a dangerous position, imo.
I am going to admit, my thinking of how an economy should function is probably outdated and it took me a long time to admit that. That said, I believe the “new” economy is dangerous and will create a bigger divide between the classes.
Fortunately, I am 60y and still have time to accept the changes and adjust my thinking and plans. I’m hopeful that my grown kids can create their own wealth, whatever that means to them, and live the life they want to live. That said, I think this is the toughest time in my lifetime to know is the best path forward for younger people.
My kids, three own homes/condos, have made good decisions and that is great. Now, all are looking to upgrade and the cost is out of their price range. IMO, some of that is due to the person that made a $125k in their retirement plan and think they can bankroll a home purchase for their kids. Hence, home prices for younger people who cannot afford it and the $125k for older people was put at risk.
To sum it, I think the American Dream is the greatest idea/concept in the history of the world on the economic front, but I think it is so messed up because of the government bailouts that my kids will never fully understand why it is the greatest economic idea ever.
For the record, I have never, never wished for an economic catastrophe and always want as many people as possible to prosper. That said, I have no idea how this economy works today without government intervention. That troubles me.
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I think Millennials and GenZ have a significantly different view of government intervention in the economy mostly due to 2008, which they believe disproportionately impacted them while also not really impacting people with high incomes and net worth.
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But I’ not an individual stock guy anyway. Vanguard philosophy all the way. Consistently dump money in and ignore it. Only own a few individual companies and Birkshire as a way of owning equities with less downside in tough times. Index funds all the way, only way over the long term for me. Take a few individual stocks in at the right time, and ignore.
My investing in 2023 definitely shifted closer to your thinking. While I will still buy some individual stocks and continue to dabble in options, the vast majority of my fresh money went into "leave the individual investments to others". This included some ETFs (VGT, TMFC), a selection of BDCs (ARCC, MAIN, TSLX, GDBC, TPVG), and a big, big helping of the S&P500. One of my best performers this year was KKR, which brought its CAGR to 15.5% in the almost 10 years I've owned it.
The BDCs are there as I build out a leg of stool for eventual retirement; they should provide a steady stream of dividends that will allow me to be more judicious around the timing of equity sale draw downs.
I was definitely raised on Peter Lynch's notion that small investors could outperform the market. But, if you boil down his success, a large portion of it was based on asymmetric information. I'm not sure that is possible in the internet age where information is so much more readily available.
I've become more of an adherent to Buffet's advice to stick your money into index funds, given that a large majority of professional money managers can't beat the indexes. I'll probably always allocate some funds to individual stocks, and will play options as that has been pretty lucrative as well as entertaining, but my strategy has evolved to outsource the individual picks far more.
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Sultan
You are likely correct, but that does not make their opinion correct. I am not saying they are wrong, but I do not think economic policy should be changed because of their opinion. I know I am in the minority thinking economic hardship is not always a bad thing, but I had an extremely difficult 2023 professionally and I learned from it. It taught me (again) to have a firm business plan in place, the need to be prepared for what-if situations and the need to make tough decisions quickly.
While 2023 is tough for my business it also brought to light a ton of positives. IMO, having a difficult year is not the worst thing in the world, provided you learn from it. We learned a lot at work this year and are well positioned going into 2024. The tough year at work obviously toke a toll on personal finances and that is the American economy should look like, imo.
Again, on the macro level, my opinions are very likely outdated and time to pivot. The biggest mistake I made over the past decade was not taking advantage of free money being thrown out of the windows of every bank. I should have borrowed until I could not borrow anymore and invested in a ton of assets that went up like crazy. Instead, this idiot thought that business model was dangerous. Funny thing, I live my professional/personal finances in reckless manner for the most part. By that I mean, I continually bet on myself and swing for the fences. Lesson learned was I should have been leveraged to the hilt.
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Sultan
You are likely correct, but that does not make their opinion correct. I am not saying they are wrong, but I do not think economic policy should be changed because of their opinion. I know I am in the minority thinking economic hardship is not always a bad thing, but I had an extremely difficult 2023 professionally and I learned from it. It taught me (again) to have a firm business plan in place, the need to be prepared for what-if situations and the need to make tough decisions quickly.
While 2023 is tough for my business it also brought to light a ton of positives. IMO, having a difficult year is not the worst thing in the world, provided you learn from it. We learned a lot at work this year and are well positioned going into 2024. The tough year at work obviously toke a toll on personal finances and that is the American economy should look like, imo.
Again, on the macro level, my opinions are very likely outdated and time to pivot. The biggest mistake I made over the past decade was not taking advantage of free money being thrown out of the windows of every bank. I should have borrowed until I could not borrow anymore and invested in a ton of assets that went up like crazy. Instead, this idiot thought that business model was dangerous. Funny thing, I live my professional/personal finances in reckless manner for the most part. By that I mean, I continually bet on myself and swing for the fences. Lesson learned was I should have been leveraged to the hilt.
Goose, economic hardship certainly teaches us a lot, as long as we pay attention. I started investing in my mid 20s and have seen it through the dot com bust, the great financial crisis, and the covid collapse. Through all these years I have used what I call the ABC method of investing (Always Be Compounding) and have continued to remain in the market. It worked because I realized that each of those events represented a tremendous buying opportunity. And the beat goes on ...
Quick story: you may remember that the stock market closed for several days after 9/11/2001. Like most of us, I did a lot of thinking over the days immediately after those planes hit the towers and ran into the ground in PA and DC. I thought to myself that America is a great place and we will be back!!! Then, on the day when the markets re-opened, I took a small amount of what I had that was not already invested and bought 10 shares (for approximately $1,000) of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTI). This index tracks every public company in America and it was my small way of betting on the U.S.A. For all these years I have kept that investment separate just so I can track how well "we" are doing. From time to time I check on these shares (20 now after a split many years ago) and smile. I will never sell them.
Anyhow, regarding your point about leverage, too much of it hurt a lot of people over the years (think of those losing homes during the great financial crisis). You likely avoided that with your conservative investing style. Good luck to you in 2024 and beyond!!!!
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Regardless of what the economy is doing, booze never goes out of fashion ...
(From Seeking Alpha)
Spirits revenue in the U.S. is slated to increase ~3% in 2024 compared to '23 as liquor company CEOs say that despite concerns over inflationary impacts on consumer spending, drinkers still see spirits as an affordable luxury.
U.S. sales of spirits is expected to reach $54.9B in 2024, according to Statista. From 2023 to 2028, revenue is expecgted to increase at a 2.85% compound growth rate.
Based on sales, vodka and tequila are projected to be the two highest selling spirits in 2024, at, respectively, $12.9B and $11B. Whiskey came in thurd at $10.9B.
The biggest sales growth between 2023 and 2024 is seen with brandy, tequila and vodka with increases of $400M each projected.
Statista noted that customers are gravitating more to premium and craft spirits, as well as flavored spirits such as fruit-infused vodkas and botanical gins.
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SoCalEagle
Good stuff. Hope you have a great 2024 as well.
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Wisconsin's job market finishes the year on a strong note with record high number of people working
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2023/12/29/wisconsins-job-market-strong-with-a-record-3-million-people-working/72052057007/?utm_source=jsonline-dailybriefing-strada&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailybriefing-greeting&utm_term=Content%20List%20-%20Stacking%20-%20optimized&utm_content=pmjs-milwaukee-nletter65
Wisconsin’s economy ended 2023 in good shape with businesses hiring workers and the state’s unemployment rate at 3.3%, lower than the national average of 3.7%.
Jobs and employment data is still being gathered for December. However officials with the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development said that in November the state had more than 3 million people working, which is a new high for the state, and in the month 1,700 employees were added to the workforce.
In 2023, roughly 32,300 workers entered the workforce in Wisconsin.
The biggest problem with the economy has been there aren’t enough bodies to fill the openings.
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Wisconsin's job market finishes the year on a strong note with record high number of people working
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2023/12/29/wisconsins-job-market-strong-with-a-record-3-million-people-working/72052057007/?utm_source=jsonline-dailybriefing-strada&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailybriefing-greeting&utm_term=Content%20List%20-%20Stacking%20-%20optimized&utm_content=pmjs-milwaukee-nletter65
Wisconsin’s economy ended 2023 in good shape with businesses hiring workers and the state’s unemployment rate at 3.3%, lower than the national average of 3.7%.
Jobs and employment data is still being gathered for December. However officials with the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development said that in November the state had more than 3 million people working, which is a new high for the state, and in the month 1,700 employees were added to the workforce.
In 2023, roughly 32,300 workers entered the workforce in Wisconsin.
The biggest problem with the economy has been there aren’t enough bodies to fill the openings.
Best governor evers
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Regardless of what the economy is doing, booze never goes out of fashion ...
(From Seeking Alpha)
Spirits revenue in the U.S. is slated to increase ~3% in 2024 compared to '23 as liquor company CEOs say that despite concerns over inflationary impacts on consumer spending, drinkers still see spirits as an affordable luxury.
U.S. sales of spirits is expected to reach $54.9B in 2024, according to Statista. From 2023 to 2028, revenue is expecgted to increase at a 2.85% compound growth rate.
Based on sales, vodka and tequila are projected to be the two highest selling spirits in 2024, at, respectively, $12.9B and $11B. Whiskey came in thurd at $10.9B.
The biggest sales growth between 2023 and 2024 is seen with brandy, tequila and vodka with increases of $400M each projected.
Statista noted that customers are gravitating more to premium and craft spirits, as well as flavored spirits such as fruit-infused vodkas and botanical gins.
This is certainly true within my circle of friends. We used to get together for "beers," and now we get together for "drinks." It used to be a 75% / 25% split in favor of beer, and now it's the other way around.
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Wisconsin's job market finishes the year on a strong note with record high number of people working
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2023/12/29/wisconsins-job-market-strong-with-a-record-3-million-people-working/72052057007/?utm_source=jsonline-dailybriefing-strada&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailybriefing-greeting&utm_term=Content%20List%20-%20Stacking%20-%20optimized&utm_content=pmjs-milwaukee-nletter65
Wisconsin’s economy ended 2023 in good shape with businesses hiring workers and the state’s unemployment rate at 3.3%, lower than the national average of 3.7%.
Jobs and employment data is still being gathered for December. However officials with the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development said that in November the state had more than 3 million people working, which is a new high for the state, and in the month 1,700 employees were added to the workforce.
In 2023, roughly 32,300 workers entered the workforce in Wisconsin.
The biggest problem with the economy has been there aren’t enough bodies to fill the openings.
Hmmm, I wonder how we can fix this problem?
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Wisconsin's job market finishes the year on a strong note with record high number of people working
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2023/12/29/wisconsins-job-market-strong-with-a-record-3-million-people-working/72052057007/?utm_source=jsonline-dailybriefing-strada&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailybriefing-greeting&utm_term=Content%20List%20-%20Stacking%20-%20optimized&utm_content=pmjs-milwaukee-nletter65
Wisconsin’s economy ended 2023 in good shape with businesses hiring workers and the state’s unemployment rate at 3.3%, lower than the national average of 3.7%.
Jobs and employment data is still being gathered for December. However officials with the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development said that in November the state had more than 3 million people working, which is a new high for the state, and in the month 1,700 employees were added to the workforce.
In 2023, roughly 32,300 workers entered the workforce in Wisconsin.
The biggest problem with the economy has been there aren’t enough bodies to fill the openings.
Thanks for providing proof of our cratering economy.
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Well, Jockey, there are some red flags, and this article points to a couple of them. Other articles point to plenty others.
So it's not close to a perfect economy (if there is such a thing). Overall, though, it's pretty strong and resilient. Those who have been forecasting a recession for years have been wrong ... and if they invested with that in mind in 2023, they missed out on a chance to increase their wealth.
And this is the Investing Thread, so crazy me will talk about investing ... as an investor, my biggest concern is that much (most?) of the market is overvalued. But I'm also a long-term investor - and over the long term, the market always moves higher.
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82
If memory serves me, a lot of wealth was lost in the market in 2022. I hope 2024 is remotely similar year to this past in the market and the economy does not stall. I am done guessing on what happens next and am counting on Uncle Sam to intervene whenever they feel it is needed. Bloated 401k plans would make any decisions on how to fix social security easier.
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82
If memory serves me, a lot of wealth was lost in the market in 2022. I hope 2024 is remotely similar year to this past in the market and the economy does not stall. I am done guessing on what happens next and am counting on Uncle Sam to intervene whenever they feel it is needed. Bloated 401k plans would make any decisions on how to fix social security easier.
There will always be up years and down years, but more up than down. Those who stay the course instead of trying to guess usually do pretty darn well long-term.
I don’t really get what you’re saying about 401k plans and Social Security.
SS is actually a relatively easy fix — and it will be fixed because of the political pressure to do so. Medicare is a more difficult fix, so we’ll see what happens there.
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82
Of course there will likely be more up than down years. Only pointing out the last two years pretty balanced out to two average years if you were fully vested for those 24 months.
What is your quick fix for social security?
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82
Of course there will likely be more up than down years. Only pointing out the last two years pretty balanced out to two average years if you were fully vested for those 24 months.
What is your quick fix for social security?
I don’t know about quick fix, but there are just more options for SS.
You can raise the full retirement age by a year, raise the early retirement age by a year, raise the amount that can be taxed, create a “donut hole” where you apply the tax for those making something like $500k, do some minor means testing, etc.
Nothing will be pain-free, but it’s not hopeless. When I said “relatively easy,” I was talking about compared to Medicare.
The whole “Social Security is going bankrupt” thing that some like to claim is dopey, too. Worst-case scenario, if nothing is done, those expecting say $2500 would get only $1800 or so. That would suck and hurt a lot of people, but $1800 is still a lot better than $0.00 - which is what “bankrupt” implies.
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82
My bad, you said relativity easy, not quick fix.
My guess is that those getting $2500 a month are not the folks that will be taking a haircut.
Why do you think SS and Medicare got into this situation? Do you think they make the relatively easy fix, kick the can down the road or protect those who need to be protected?
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It got like this because it has been kicked down the road for generations.
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It got like this because it has been kicked down the road for generations.
Not too mention the guy/gal making 160K a year as an engineer, maybe financial advisor, lawyer pays the same amount of SS tax as LeBron James does.
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Reinko
Will LeBron get a bigger SS check then the engineer?
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Reinko
Will LeBron get a bigger SS check then the engineer?
He won’t, life isn’t fair, and his entire family for generations will probably never need the money from his SS.
Use the money (as one of the levers including looking at the retirement age) to help make the system solvent for future generations.
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Yup. Raise the threshold and means test.
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Reinko
Will LeBron get a bigger SS check then the engineer?
No. Is that a problem? You were complaining about the income disparity in the country earlier.
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Sultan
No shxt he is not getting a bigger SS check, that was my point. Why would he pay more to get the same check as the engineer? Where did I complain about income disparity? I commented that their is a growing divide in economic classes, but I have never complained about income disparity in my life.
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Yup. Raise the threshold and means test.
Disagree.
Stop means testing anything. Make every program universal. Remove the absurd bureaucracy and inefficiencies.
Increase taxes. But don't make benefits harder to receive.
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Sultan
No shxt he is not getting a bigger SS check, that was my point. Why would he pay more to get the same check as the engineer? Where did I complain about income disparity? I commented that their is a growing divide in economic classes, but I have never complained about income disparity in my life.
lol. Ok. How do think growing divides are created? How do you think they are fixed?
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82
My bad, you said relativity easy, not quick fix.
My guess is that those getting $2500 a month are not the folks that will be taking a haircut.
Why do you think SS and Medicare got into this situation? Do you think they make the relatively easy fix, kick the can down the road or protect those who need to be protected?
Generations of politicians, regardless of party, who would rather get re-elected than make tough decisions. What else is new?
Yes, I think they will make the relatively easy fix. The political price of not doing that would be too high.
Most of those who need to be "protected" will be, I think. Of course, everybody has a different definition of who needs to be "protected."
I do wish there were a Social Security thread and/or an economy thread. Because none of this has anything to do with investing, at least not the way we're all discussing it.
Now, doubts about the viability of Social Security in X number of years could change the way some people invest, especially those younger than 50 years old. But nobody's talking about that. I personally think Social Security will still be available decades from now and that Medicare will be the bigger issue, but I fully admit I could be wrong.
And no, I don't know enough about the options to have a clue how to fix Medicare.
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Sultan
Laugh all you want. Take the top 1-3% of earners out of the mix and I doubt the divide of remaining population is a bigger divide than 25 years ago. I think government printing money, low interest rates and other factors has caused a bigger divide in the classes.
Has the majority of the population had a disproportionate change in wages over past 25 years? I would argue the lowest paying jobs have seen a far bigger increase than mid to higher paying jobs.
If you read my posts on the topic, I have been consistent in saying I am old school in regards to the economy and I am outdated. That said, I do not think income disparity for 95+% of the population has caused the divide. For the record, I could be wrong that the divide is bigger and I have misjudged things.
I have no idea what an average 25-30y college grad makes, but I assume they make a fair wage. Unfortunately, it sure seems like they have a hard time saving to buy a house. Looking at housing in the area where we bought our first home, pricing is up 60% over past 4-5 years. How did that happen?
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Sultan
Laugh all you want. Take the top 1-3% of earners out of the mix and I doubt the divide of remaining population is a bigger divide than 25 years ago. I think government printing money, low interest rates and other factors has caused a bigger divide in the classes.
Has the majority of the population had a disproportionate change in wages over past 25 years? I would argue the lowest paying jobs have seen a far bigger increase than mid to higher paying jobs.
Nope. Recently income has been increasing for everyone, but it is increasing the most at the highest levels.
https://apnews.com/article/economy-wealth-inequality-income-consumers-d1ece7c344fbf96f93264172ef8d9394#
“The Fed’s survey found that even as wealth inequality declined, income disparities worsened. Median incomes grew 3% compared with the previous survey, which covered 2017 through 2019. But average incomes, which are swollen by the earnings of the wealthiest one-tenth of households, jumped 15%. The outsize gain among the richest households was driven by profits on stock and property holdings as well as higher wages.”
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82
My bad, you said relativity easy, not quick fix.
My guess is that those getting $2500 a month are not the folks that will be taking a haircut.
Why do you think SS and Medicare got into this situation? Do you think they make the relatively easy fix, kick the can down the road or protect those who need to be protected?
The Democrats have made multiple proposals to fix entitlements, the most noteworthy being the Grand Bargain of 2011. Obama angered a lot of the Dems on the far left when he agreed to reduce benefits, but he felt that a fix was needed. He pushed hard for it and it was passed in the Senate. Unfortunately, the hard right scuttled the deal because it included additional taxes. So when you hear comments like "both sides are just kicking the can down the road," don't believe it. One side (the Republicans) won't compromise (i.e not one more dollar of taxes earmarked for entitlements) so we continue to fight about something that could have been solved years ago.
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The Democrats have made multiple proposals to fix entitlements, the most noteworthy being the Grand Bargain of 2011. Obama angered a lot of the Dems on the far left when he agreed to reduce benefits, but he felt that a fix was needed. He pushed hard for it and it was passed in the Senate. Unfortunately, the hard right scuttled the deal because it included additional taxes. So when you hear comments like "both sides are just kicking the can down the road," don't believe it. One side (the Republicans) won't compromise (i.e not one more dollar of taxes earmarked for entitlements) so we continue to fight about something that could have been solved years ago.
Although I agree your general thesis, there also have been Republicans who pushed for changes, some pretty aggressive changes. Paul Ryan, when a VP candidate and speaker, for one. Chris Christie for another.
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Yup. Raise the threshold and means test.
Why would you means test? Those who contribute the most to Social Security and Medicare already get the least out of these systems. These programs are a much better deal for those who contribute less. The more you put into Social Security the less you get out of it on a percentage basis. In a way, these systems are already means tested.
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Although I agree your general thesis, there also have been Republicans who pushed for changes, some pretty aggressive changes. Paul Ryan, when a VP candidate and speaker, for one. Chris Christie for another.
Paul Ryan has pushed for cuts to entitlements, no doubt. However, I don't recall that he was pushing for a compromise, i.e. tax increases to go along with the cuts to entitlements. I agree that many Republicans "push for changes," but I don't think there are many, if any, (outside outhouse who negotiated the Grand Bargain) who are on record with support for a compromise (tax increases as part of an entitlements reform package). In fact, I can't name a current Republican who advocates for this approach. Maybe I'm wrong?
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Paul Ryan has pushed for cuts to entitlements, no doubt. However, I don't recall that he was pushing for a compromise, i.e. tax increases to go along with the cuts to entitlements. I agree that many Republicans "push for changes," but I don't think there are many, if any, (outside outhouse who negotiated the Grand Bargain) who are on record with support for a compromise (tax increases as part of an entitlements reform package). In fact, I can't name a current Republican who advocates for this approach. Maybe I'm wrong?
I don't follow these political discussions closely enough to know if you are right or wrong.
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82
Do you think the fed has intentionally propped up the stock market over the past three years? If so, why did they do it?
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82
Do you think the fed has intentionally propped up the stock market over the past three years? If so, why did they do it?
Actually, one could argue the opposite - that by raising rates throughout 2022, the Fed almost certainly adversely affected the stock market that year.
A few years earlier, as Powell got relentlessly badgered by a president who called him the "enemy" of the American people, the Fed unnecessarily and unwisely lowered rates despite the economy being healthy. The then-president got the market rally he wanted.
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Actually, one could argue the opposite - that by raising rates throughout 2022, the Fed almost certainly adversely affected the stock market that year.
A few years earlier, as Powell got relentlessly badgered by a president who called him the "enemy" of the American people, the Fed unnecessarily and unwisely lowered rates despite the economy being healthy. The then-president got the market rally he wanted.
This was absolutely the wrong approach. So glad Biden lets the experts do what is needed. Seems to be working well.
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82
So, you do not think the Fed has intentionally propped up the stock market over the past three years?
Not exactly sure what the previous President had to do with the question, but I am sure it makes sense in your mind. Since you brought 2020 up, do you think the rally in 2020 was Fed driven? IMO, that rally exemplified Sultan’s original post a few days ago in the topic.
The government and/or Fed does not have the stomach to let the markets and economy function on their own during tough times.
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82
So, you do not think the Fed has intentionally propped up the stock market over the past three years?
The Fed raised rates 11 times. In what world is that construed as propping up the stock market?
Not exactly sure what the previous President had to do with the question, but I am sure it makes sense in your mind. Since you brought 2020 up, do you think the rally in 2020 was Fed driven? IMO, that rally exemplified Sultan’s original post a few days ago in the topic.
Of course you know what that has to do with the question.
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TSmith
The Fed raised rates 11 times because they had an overheated economy, mainly because of a very inflated stock market and real estate market. I am open to any comments on why those two assets had historic growth in value other than Fed printing money and QE. I might 100% wrong and would welcome reasons why 2020-2021 happened in those two markets.
As for Trump, my question was the previous three years, not prior to that. That said, I thought Trump was off his rocker wanting lower rates and how he treated Powell and I don't like Powell.
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Inflation is definitely a reason why house prices have increased rapidly. But a shortage of homes, particularly at the entry level, has been a problem that has worked to increase the cost of real estate even before the pandemic.
Also, less homes are on the market these days because of the rise in interest rates. So buyers have to be much more aggressive when a house they like gets on the market.
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Inflation is definitely a reason why house prices have increased rapidly. But a shortage of homes, particularly at the entry level, has been a problem that has worked to increase the cost of real estate even before the pandemic.
Also, less homes are on the market these days because of the rise in interest rates. So buyers have to be much more aggressive when a house they like gets on the market.
Exactly, COVID caused/accelerated lifestyle changes right when Boomers and Millennials were transitioning life stages.
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Inflation is definitely a reason why house prices have increased rapidly. But a shortage of homes, particularly at the entry level, has been a problem that has worked to increase the cost of real estate even before the pandemic.
Also, less homes are on the market these days because of the rise in interest rates. So buyers have to be much more aggressive when a house they like gets on the market.
Along with the Blackrock’s of the world buying millions of starter homes around the country and turning them into rentals.
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TSmith
The Fed raised rates 11 times because they had an overheated economy, mainly because of a very inflated stock market and real estate market. I am open to any comments on why those two assets had historic growth in value other than Fed printing money and QE. I might 100% wrong and would welcome reasons why 2020-2021 happened in those two markets.
As for Trump, my question was the previous three years, not prior to that. That said, I thought Trump was off his rocker wanting lower rates and how he treated Powell and I don't like Powell.
You asked whether the Fed had propped up the market over the last few years, yet above you are saying the Fed raised rates, one effect of which was creating a bear market. These seem diametrically opposed ideas to me.
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Inflation is definitely a reason why house prices have increased rapidly. But a shortage of homes, particularly at the entry level, has been a problem that has worked to increase the cost of real estate even before the pandemic.
Also, less homes are on the market these days because of the rise in interest rates. So buyers have to be much more aggressive when a house they like gets on the market.
I read this last month that one of the main reasons for the housing shortage is cumulation from the Great Recession. It probably won't recover until 2030 because it takes time to build buildings. Here's the full article.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/11/buying-house-market-shortage/676088/
It Will Never Be a Good Time to Buy a House
Maybe in 2030?
By Annie Lowrey
Earlier this year, I moved from San Francisco to New York with my dogs, kids, and husband. My family rented an apartment. And once we figured out that we liked it here and wanted to stay, we looked to buy a place.
For roughly 11 minutes, before realizing that literally any other activity would be a better use of our time. Brooklyn has 1.1 million housing units. Just a dozen of them seemed to fit our requirements and were sitting on the market. All of the options were too expensive. And that was before factoring in the obscene cost of a mortgage.
New York, in housing as in many things, is an extreme example. But the brutal mathematics is much the same across the country. At this time 15 years ago, real-estate agents had 2.2 million vacant housing units available to show prospective buyers. That number has dwindled and dwindled and now sits at just 732,000, despite the country having added 30 million people to its population. The Case-Shiller index of home prices sits near its highest-ever inflation-adjusted level; houses are unaffordable for middle-class families across the country. Rural areas are expensive. Suburbs are expensive. Cities are absurdly expensive. Nowhere is cheap. That’s in part thanks to mortgage rates. The monthly payment on a new home has increased by more than 50 percent in the past three years, as 30-year mortgage rates have climbed from less than 3 percent to nearly 8 percent.
It’s a terrible time to buy a house. But that news, bad as it is, seems to convey some promise: Someday, things will change and it will once again be a good moment to buy. You just have to wait. I’m sorry to tell you that the bad news is even worse than it sounds. It’s not going to be a good time to buy a house for a really long time. How long? I put that question to a few housing economists and real-estate experts. Their response? Who knows. A decade. “Maybe in 2030, we would start to see some relief,” Daryl Fairweather, the chief economist of Redfin, told me, before noting that 2030 was so far in the future that she could not make any kind of informed prediction.
The problem is twofold. We have a long-standing housing shortage. And we have a frozen housing market. The latter is making the former worse, and it will take years for things to even out and ease up.
The fundamental issue is that the country does not have enough homes where people want them, a consequence of a decade-plus of underbuilding after the Great Recession. Freddie Mac has estimated that the country is short 3.8 million starter homes; Realtor.com puts the deficit at 2.3 to 6.5 million total housing units; the National Association of Realtors and Rosen Consulting say it’s 5.5 million. Whatever the number, it is big. The shortage has driven up costs for buyers and renters alike—most spectacularly in megacities such as Los Angeles and New York, but pretty much everywhere at this point.
Enter the pandemic. When COVID hit, the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates down to scratch. This led to a huge surge of home sales, with the volume of deals hitting its highest level since the collapse of the real-estate bubble. Buyers scrambled to take advantage of low mortgage rates. Sellers scrambled to take advantage of soaring prices. (Many sellers, of course, are buyers too. People trade up or downsize, and are more likely to do so when borrowing costs are low.) Folks relocated to take advantage of their employers’ new work-from-home policies.
Enter inflation. Prices for everything went up because of ample demand (families were spending their “stimmies”) and stifled supply (COVID-related supply-chain problems were causing shortages of everything from couches to semiconductors). The Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates to cool down the rate of price growth. This led to a huge run-up in mortgage rates and a crash in home sales. Would-be buyers decided to rent instead of buy. Would-be sellers decided to stay put instead of moving, because why give up a 3 percent mortgage rate for a 7 percent mortgage rate? Very few units hit the market, so prices stayed high.
This is the uncomfortable equilibrium the market finds itself in today. Nobody’s selling, because nobody’s buying. Nobody’s buying, because nobody’s selling. Nobody can afford to sell. Nobody can afford to buy. Prices are high; mortgage costs are high. Rents are high, too, and there’s not a huge amount of rental inventory. Everyone’s stuck and paying more than they want to.
Things should calm down when the Fed eases up on borrowing costs, right? Wrong. Things will not calm down. “Once mortgage rates drop, that will reactivate the housing market, leading to more demand. With a limited supply, that would only lead to higher prices,” Fairweather told me. In other words, millions of would-be homebuyers will flood into the market, bidding one another up and pushing poorer purchasers out. More homeowners will feel motivated to sell, giving up their 3 percent mortgage rates for offers above their imagined asking prices. But nobody expects the return of a buyer’s market or anything like it.
The underlying problem remains the underlying problem. The housing shortage persists. High borrowing costs have intensified it, because so many developers and home builders take out loans to complete their projects. Until housing production ramps up for an extended period of time, until there’s considerably more supply relative to demand, things are not going to feel good. They can’t.
Many states and municipalities have passed laws to promote housing development in the past three years—easing zoning restrictions, allowing high-rises near transit hubs, and preventing owners from stopping development to protect their own home’s value. “They probably are going to move the needle on housing supply,” Fairweather told me. But building those new units will take time, time in which demand for new homes will keep growing too.
What is a family looking to buy a place to do? Buy in cash, if you happen to be rich enough to do that. (A bananas statistic: This spring, two out of every three buyers in Manhattan paid cash.) Buy and refinance when you can, if you happen to have the risk tolerance and financial room to do that. Buy with as large a down payment as you can muster to cut your mortgage costs. Or just rent. For the next decade. Forever.
Annie Lowrey is a staff writer at The Atlantic.
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Thank you yes. The shortage is a huge problem.
And also, it's a lot harder to qualify for a mortgage than it was prior to the Great Recession. And that's also why I am not that considered about firms buying (or building) houses simply to rent. People need to live somewhere.
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Owner-occupied housing looks to be holding steady and above any rate from 1965-1995.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N#0
(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1b34n)
The rest of the narrative is opinion.
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And I would suggest that the sharp rise after 1995 was fueled by bad mortgages, which is why the foreclosure rate increased even before the Great Recession.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/798766/foreclosure-rate-usa/
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And I would suggest that the sharp rise after 1995 was fueled by bad mortgages
Oh 100%. On a percentage basis, pretty much more people own homes than ever before - excluding when mortgages were given out to people who had no reason getting them.
Funny side note: With my first house purchase in 2005, I was one of those no-doc mortgage losers, that probably had no reason buying. I worked for a startup at the time, had great credit, but intermittent income. But from application until closing Chase only ever pulled my credit report. Of course, I'm cautious and even payed off my loan in 10 years, but in theory they probably never would have given me a loan if they had ever asked for pay stubs!
Back to investing. Who do people like for AI investments? Alphabet and Microsoft seem obvious, any other small players?
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Back to investing. Who do people like for AI investments? Alphabet and Microsoft seem obvious, any other small players?
I don't follow small caps, but two other megacaps would be NVDA and AMZN. And you just know Apple will figure out some big ways to be AI-relevant.
One somewhat smaller (but definitely not small) name I have a stake in is Lam Research, LRCX. It is a "pick-and-shovel" company that makes equipment for semiconductor manufacturers. Lots of the huge chip companies use Lam components, and all of those are feverishly working on semis for AI applications. I will say that LRCX is looking pricey here ... but then again they all are. Even beaten-down names like Intel have been on fire lately.
Semis are getting beaten up a little today for reasons I don't know. Still not cheap, but ...
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For sure - if you're talking Semiconductors, NVIDIA, intel, Arm, AMD/Xilinx, Amazon, Google, and Apple are all involved and investment accessible to us peons.
LRCX is an interesting play, and by that matter probably KLAC too. But as you noted, not cheap now - though that doesn't mean they won't get more expensive.
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Oh 100%. On a percentage basis, pretty much more people own homes than ever before - excluding when mortgages were given out to people who had no reason getting them.
Funny side note: With my first house purchase in 2005, I was one of those no-doc mortgage losers, that probably had no reason buying. I worked for a startup at the time, had great credit, but intermittent income. But from application until closing Chase only ever pulled my credit report. Of course, I'm cautious and even payed off my loan in 10 years, but in theory they probably never would have given me a loan if they had ever asked for pay stubs!
Back to investing. Who do people like for AI investments? Alphabet and Microsoft seem obvious, any other small players?
Interesting story, Rocky. My wife and I had the opposite experience when shopping for a home in 2010 / 2011. Housing prices were way down, but scrutiny of a buyer's ability to pay was extremely high. When we told our agent that we both had good paying jobs, at least 20% or more to put down, and good credit scores I could literally see the positive reaction on her face. Then on our first outing she began to show us homes that I thought were untouchable for us. Of course what I didn't fully understand at the time was that we had a great buyer's profile in the midst of a huge buyer's market. Sure, we had to put up with a lot of documentation requests and sometimes double checking of our submittals, but the end result was good.
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Oh 100%. On a percentage basis, pretty much more people own homes than ever before - excluding when mortgages were given out to people who had no reason getting them.
Funny side note: With my first house purchase in 2005, I was one of those no-doc mortgage losers, that probably had no reason buying. I worked for a startup at the time, had great credit, but intermittent income. But from application until closing Chase only ever pulled my credit report. Of course, I'm cautious and even payed off my loan in 10 years, but in theory they probably never would have given me a loan if they had ever asked for pay stubs!
Back to investing. Who do people like for AI investments? Alphabet and Microsoft seem obvious, any other small players?
This is quite a difficult question as real monetization of AI is still out there quite a bit. However, I'm thinking that, for now, continued success by the mega caps is one way to play AI. After that, NKN (Nobody Knows Nuthin)
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Sure, we had to put up with a lot of documentation requests and sometimes double checking of our submittals, but the end result was good.
Oh yeah, the process is mind numbing these days (Been a buyer 4 times since then, and twice since 2020). In fact in '22 I had a "problem" in that I work part time and told the bank my part-time (but salaried) income, and had the pay stubs to prove it. By my work does all income verification through the work-number and it only reported my full-time income. The bank was fine with my income, but had no way to reconcile the lower number I told them. Hah!
This is quite a difficult question as real monetization of AI is still out there quite a bit. However, I'm thinking that, for now, continued success by the mega caps is one way to play AI. After that, NKN (Nobody Knows Nuthin)
That is sorta' my feeling / expectation as well. But not sure if I'm missing something. The services companies may offer a play. I picked up a couple dollars worth of C3.ai, but to be honest, I don't really trust that company! lol.
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I mean, so many could be called "AI plays."
TSLA for sure. IBM. HON. Even the likes of DE and CAT (which are also infrastructure plays).
It depends on how far into the weeds one wants to wander to find AI plays.
You named KLAC; that's a good one that several investors I respect own. I don't own it myself - can't own everything!
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From this morning's NYT DealBook newsletter:
Investors are shrugging off news that Elon Musk’s carmaker has lost its crown as the world’s biggest seller of electric vehicles, ceding that position to BYD, a Chinese rival backed by Warren Buffett. But industry watchers say the changing of the guard is a potentially key moment.
Tesla shares were down a tick in premarket trading this morning after its latest sales update yesterday. The company sold a record 1.8 million vehicles last year, bolstered by discounts. That included the sale of nearly 485,000 cars last quarter — about 41,000 fewer than BYD in the same period.
BYD is the dominant E.V. maker in the world’s biggest car market. The company initially focused on making batteries before pivoting to manufacturing its own cars. It sells cheaper vehicles than Tesla, but its profit margins have held up, partly because it owns its battery supply chain and sources less expensive raw materials.
BYD is now looking overseas, putting further pressure on Tesla. The Chinese market comprises about 90 percent of BYD’s sales. But BYD’s international business — it’s focusing on Europe, Japan and Brazil, and has largely avoided the U.S. amid trade tensions between Beijing and Washington — took off in the second half of last year.
Whether BYD can translate its domestic success “onto a global stage is one of the big questions of 2024,” Matthias Schmidt, an industry analyst and director of Schmidt Automotive Research, told DealBook. BYD announced plans last month to build an electric-vehicle factory in Hungary even as the European Union, the world’s second-biggest E.V. market, investigates Chinese firms for illegal subsidies.
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Hards
I do think the government’s non stop printing of money has consequences. It has been a great thing for the stock market and a nice segment of people benefited from that. IMO, that has come with a very big cost to the overall economy.
There were/are a lot of things broken in our economic system and that is troublesome from my perspective. First, I believe making money is hard and easy made money is not a long term positive. For argument sake, if someone had a $500k in their retirement plan and was 100% in the S&P this year, they made roughly $125k. That $125k makes people feel smarter than they are and reckless spending is east do if you think you are smarter than you really are.
That is great for them, but many took years or decades to hit $500k and that $125k windfall changes perspective on one’s wealth. Spending habits change, thinking you can help grown children comes into play and it changed the overall economy.
I have said on here many times that a very smart man once told me that if you do not think $100k is a lot of money, see how hard it is to save $100k. The divide in society continues to get larger and the cost of living is in a dangerous position, imo.
I am going to admit, my thinking of how an economy should function is probably outdated and it took me a long time to admit that. That said, I believe the “new” economy is dangerous and will create a bigger divide between the classes.
Fortunately, I am 60y and still have time to accept the changes and adjust my thinking and plans. I’m hopeful that my grown kids can create their own wealth, whatever that means to them, and live the life they want to live. That said, I think this is the toughest time in my lifetime to know is the best path forward for younger people.
My kids, three own homes/condos, have made good decisions and that is great. Now, all are looking to upgrade and the cost is out of their price range. IMO, some of that is due to the person that made a $125k in their retirement plan and think they can bankroll a home purchase for their kids. Hence, home prices for younger people who cannot afford it and the $125k for older people was put at risk.
To sum it, I think the American Dream is the greatest idea/concept in the history of the world on the economic front, but I think it is so messed up because of the government bailouts that my kids will never fully understand why it is the greatest economic idea ever.
For the record, I have never, never wished for an economic catastrophe and always want as many people as possible to prosper. That said, I have no idea how this economy works today without government intervention. That troubles me.
Okay, but I asked why printing money was a problem.
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I have said on here many times that a very smart man once told me that if you do not think $100k is a lot of money, see how hard it is to save $100k. The divide in society continues to get larger and the cost of living is in a dangerous position, imo.
I am going to admit, my thinking of how an economy should function is probably outdated and it took me a long time to admit that. That said, I believe the “new” economy is dangerous and will create a bigger divide between the classes.
Fortunately, I am 60y and still have time to accept the changes and adjust my thinking and plans. I’m hopeful that my grown kids can create their own wealth, whatever that means to them, and live the life they want to live. That said, I think this is the toughest time in my lifetime to know is the best path forward for younger people.
To sum it, I think the American Dream is the greatest idea/concept in the history of the world on the economic front, but I think it is so messed up because of the government bailouts that my kids will never fully understand why it is the greatest economic idea ever.
I completely agree with the 1st 3 paragraphs.
However, I couldn't agree less with the last paragraph. I think the bailouts to the richest among us are the problem. And of course, the utter greed of this 'rich upper crust'. The poorest among us are not the problem - even with their meager gov't assistance. Luckily, that is changing. A closer to living wage for all is a great improvement. So is the new rise of union strength.
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The concept of the American dream being equally achievable to all is a great way to get people to keep driving the economy forward for the lucky few
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The concept of the American dream being equally achievable to all is a great way to get people to keep driving the economy forward for the lucky few
They call it the American dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it.
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Well, this sucker still believes in the American Dream, just harder to navigate. I am going to continue to chase that dream until my last breath. Now, I have learned that it is far harder than decades ago and am going to do whatever possible to make it happen. I might end up woefully short and that is life.
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Well, this sucker still believes in the American Dream, just harder to navigate. I am going to continue to chase that dream until my last breath. Now, I have learned that it is far harder than decades ago and am going to do whatever possible to make it happen. I might end up woefully short and that is life.
Sorry, a man much smarter than myself said the quote. ;D
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I think the premise of the American dream varies wildly depending on who you ask, but as someone who has given very real thought to moving/re-establishing their business abroad in the last 3-4 years, the US is still more or less the gold standard for entrepreneurship. And no I’m not talking becoming a billionaire or some pie in the sky exceptionalism, but coming from relatively nothing and still making plenty of money/changing your station
I totally get the sentiment and desires to raise the tide to lift all boats, to create a high floor as opposed to the ceiling, it’s all valid. I also realize that entrepreneurship/owning a business isn’t for everyone. If you’re looking for just a comfortable life of working and taking care of your family and not seeking that level of upside, then I’m more than willing to admit there are probably better places than the US.
I know business owners from various places in Europe and some parts of Asia that if their business was in the US and they had the success they did, they would be at worst very comfortable and some would be quite wealthy. But none of them are more than what would be middle to upper middle class here. One actually had to shut his business down because of the energy crisis (and they were not a company that directly dealt in that industry at all). Another is moving to Dubai because it was actually cheaper to move all of his current staff (around 6 people) there and expand than what it would cost to add 3-4 more headcount as needed in Brussels.
Again, it’s a lot of stuff that may actually lead to better quality of life for general population (depending on what situation they are in or what they value) but brutal on small to mid size businesses. Which is why the US will remain an attractive destination for business people, even from “developed” nations that many Americans think are so much better than the US
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The idea of the American Dream is a "pull yourself up by your own bootstraps" type of thinking. That it doesn't matter what your social standing is at birth - you are the one largely responsible for making yourself successful. Now I think the United States still provides those opportunities, but has been bypassed by a number of others on the social mobility scale.
The "high floor" as Wags puts it, socializes education and health care in a way that takes out two of the largest factors that IMO are detriments to social mobility here.
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Good stuff, wags and sultan.
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The idea of the American Dream is a "pull yourself up by your own bootstraps" type of thinking. That it doesn't matter what your social standing is at birth - you are the one largely responsible for making yourself successful. Now I think the United States still provides those opportunities, but has been bypassed by a number of others on the social mobility scale.
The "high floor" as Wags puts it, socializes education and health care in a way that takes out two of the largest factors that IMO are detriments to social mobility here.
It’s easier to achieve upwards mobility here than many places in the world but it certainly isn’t everyone starting at home plate. Its also very unforgiving to misfortune
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It’s easier to achieve upwards mobility here than many places in the world but it certainly isn’t everyone starting at home plate. Its also very unforgiving to misfortune
Well, and it used to be much easier to have upward mobility a few decades back in the US than it is now.
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We're in that curious space where the markets don't love a sterling economy.
Jobs: +216,000 (46K over estimates)
Unemployment: flat at 3.7% (+.2% better than estimates)
Wage growth: +4.1%
Markets: "meh"
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We're in that curious space where the markets don't love a sterling economy.
Jobs: +216,000 (46K over estimates)
Unemployment: flat at 3.7% (+.2% better than estimates)
Markets: "meh"
Well, the market is near an all-time high, and SPY did just gain 24% last year. So a little better than "meh."
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Well, the market is near an all-time high, and SPY did just gain 24% last year. So a little better than "meh."
Meh in reaction to these numbers, as it lessens the chance and speed of the predicted 6 interest rate cuts this year, which seemed overly optimistic to me anyway.
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Meh in reaction to these numbers, as it lessens the chance and speed of the predicted 6 interest rate cuts this year, which seemed overly optimistic to me anyway.
Most predictions I've seen have been 3 rate cuts in 2024. It'll be interesting to see what actually happens.
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Most predictions I've seen have been 3 rate cuts in 2024. It'll be interesting to see what actually happens.
If you go back through my posts, I’ve been a frequent and vocal critic of Powell going back 5 years, but I will say that he’s actually impressed me over the last 18 months or so and I think he and the Fed actually have a very good handle on things/perspective. Wild to think given how I viewed them during the money printer go BRRRRR days
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We're in that curious space where the markets don't love a sterling economy.
Jobs: +216,000 (46K over estimates)
Unemployment: flat at 3.7% (+.2% better than estimates)
Wage growth: +4.1%
Markets: "meh"
Priced in, everytime
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Most predictions I've seen have been 3 rate cuts in 2024. It'll be interesting to see what actually happens.
Well, it is an election year. Any port in a storm, aina?
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Well, it is an election year. Any port in a storm, aina?
Last I heard, the current president didn't do what your lord did: constantly badger and berate Powell, threaten to fire him, call him an "enemy" of the American people, etc. All to get a couple of rate cuts that weren't necessary during an economy your lord claimed was the best ever.
The current president has let Powell do his job. And as Wags said, Powell has been doing it pretty darn well.
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Last I heard, the current president didn't do what your lord did: constantly badger and berate Powell, threaten to fire him, call him an "enemy" of the American people, etc. All to get a couple of rate cuts that weren't necessary during an economy your lord claimed was the best ever.
The current president has let Powell do his job. And as Wags said, Powell has been doing it pretty darn well.
I agree with this analysis.
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Well, it is an election year. Any port in a storm, aina?
Yes, 4Qver, it is undoubtedly a conspiracy. Just as zerohedge said. The guy Trump appointed is in the bag for Dark Brandon. Which is why he raised interest rates 11 times. What a clever boy you are.
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The price of teeth must be underperforming the S&P
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It is real simple, smart money is in ahead of good news and idiots are in after good news.
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It is real simple, smart money is in ahead of good news and idiots are in after good news.
Smart money buys and holds. Dumb money buys and sells thinking they can outsmart mr. market.
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It is real simple, smart money is in ahead of good news and idiots are in after good news.
In trading, you buy the rumor and sell the news.
In investing, you use weakness to add to your portfolio - it’s what the cash you’re holding is for.
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Lenny
I wish you posted on this thread more often. You bring a ton of insight on the topic. That said, I at least hope you read this thread often and gain knowledge from a number of investing experts on here.
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Goose, few if any here are claiming to be "investing experts." I sure as heck am not claiming that. Are you? Had I made a comment like you just did, you'd have accused me of trying to "stir the pot." But that's OK; you sometimes like to stir, too.
It's a forum to discuss investing ideas. I also hope Lenny stops by often -- and I totally agree with his last post.
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Honest question here. If you had $500k to either invest in the s&p 500 or buy an airbnb lake house grossing 30 to 40k a year non guaranteed a year, what would you choose?
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Honest question here. If you had $500k to either invest in the s&p 500 or buy an airbnb lake house grossing 30 to 40k a year non guaranteed a year, what would you choose?
Ton of factors here, is that 30-40K gross or net? Paying all cash, mortgage? Condition of the lake house, would the 500K wipe you out, or still have a nest egg just for lake house repairs. Lastly what are your savings goals, S&P 500 is great long term, is real estate something you want to get into…
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Honest question here. If you had $500k to either invest in the s&p 500 or buy an airbnb lake house grossing 30 to 40k a year non guaranteed a year, what would you choose?
On first blush, a 6-8% non guaranteed gross return on a speculative (lake house) piece of real estate seems a little light.
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82
Not stirring the pot one bit. I sincerely respect any thoughts that are shared by Lenny on the topic. For the record, I have a better chance on being the next HC after Shaka leaves than being considered an investing expert.
To clarify, my post was in reference was in regards to the market being in a curious space with all of the great economic numbers. I was simply saying smart guys are in before the news and out after the news. Those smart guys are the big boys and they drive the market, imo.
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I am rhe opposite of an expert. My retirement investment plan was to stay at a job with a really good pension. Pay off a house early. Stay in it. Stay married to my first wife. Put money into my 457 and her 401k plans. Live within my means. And then to trust the process and the market.
I have friends who chase every market trend. I have friends who are financial planners. The former frustrate the latter. I understand the impulses. It just isn't me.
In answer to Howardsworld's really fun question, my wife and I are leaving our half million plus in the aforementioned 457 and 401k. No interest in being a landlord.
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I am rhe opposite of an expert. My retirement investment plan was to stay at a job with a really good pension. Pay off a house early. Stay in it. Stay married to my first wife. Put money into my 457 and her 401k plans. Live within my means. And then to trust the process and the market.
I have friends who chase every market trend. I have friends who are financial planners. The former frustrate the latter. I understand the impulses. It just isn't me.
In answer to Howardsworld's really fun question, my wife and I are leaving our half million plus in the aforementioned 457 and 401k. No interest in being a landlord.
Please don’t share this with your bride - she might not appreciate that you stayed married to her as part of your retirement investment plan.
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Why? That is an ongoing joke between us. She married me and stayed married because of my health care benefits. I stay married to her because there are divorce attorneys at the law firm at which she works willing to work for her for free.
I get that based on your recent post history you may have to Google 'joke' and 'humor'.
Although the chain gang bit wasn't bad.
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Why? That is an ongoing joke between us. She married me and stayed married because of my health care benefits. I stay married to her because there are divorce attorneys at the law firm at which she works willing to work for her for free.
I get that based on your recent post history you may have to Google 'joke' and 'humor'.
Although the chain gang bit wasn't bad.
Guess you didn’t get that my response was meant as a joke. Sorry that you didn’t take it (or several other posts) that way.
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I will now read it that way.
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82
Not stirring the pot one bit. I sincerely respect any thoughts that are shared by Lenny on the topic. For the record, I have a better chance on being the next HC after Shaka leaves than being considered an investing expert.
To clarify, my post was in reference was in regards to the market being in a curious space with all of the great economic numbers. I was simply saying smart guys are in before the news and out after the news. Those smart guys are the big boys and they drive the market, imo.
Perhaps. But that isn't why the market had a tepid response to stellar economic numbers.
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TSmith
Why was there a tepid response?
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TSmith
Why was there a tepid response?
Why do you think?
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TSmith
Huh?
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I'm asking why you think the market reacted the way that it did
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TSmith
I have no fxxkin idea. Based off of your post I assumed you did.
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Yes, because the economic numbers were notably stronger than anticipated
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Ton of factors here, is that 30-40K gross or net? Paying all cash, mortgage? Condition of the lake house, would the 500K wipe you out, or still have a nest egg just for lake house repairs. Lastly what are your savings goals, S&P 500 is great long term, is real estate something you want to get into…
Also how much risk do you want to take.
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Ton of factors here, is that 30-40K gross or net? Paying all cash, mortgage? Condition of the lake house, would the 500K wipe you out, or still have a nest egg just for lake house repairs. Lastly what are your savings goals, S&P 500 is great long term, is real estate something you want to get into…
Read his post. Gross, not guaranteed.
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Read his post. Gross, not guaranteed.
Sheesh, what crawled up your ass
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Honest question here. If you had $500k to either invest in the s&p 500 or buy an airbnb lake house grossing 30 to 40k a year non guaranteed a year, what would you choose?
As an investment, I would put that $500K in the S&P500 (VOO) or the Total Stock Market (VTI) every time.
Without a doubt, every time.
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Sheesh, what crawled up your ass
Nothing personal, reinko. Sorry if it came off that way. Seems people routinely reply to posts here without really reading the one they’re replying to. Sorry for singling you out.
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Nothing personal, reinko. Sorry if it came off that way. Seems people routinely reply to posts here without really reading the one they’re replying to. Sorry for singling you out.
Why are you attacking me
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Honest question here. If you had $500k to either invest in the s&p 500 or buy an airbnb lake house grossing 30 to 40k a year non guaranteed a year, what would you choose?
Not nearly enough information here for anybody to recommend anything.
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82
Not stirring the pot one bit. I sincerely respect any thoughts that are shared by Lenny on the topic. For the record, I have a better chance on being the next HC after Shaka leaves than being considered an investing expert.
To clarify, my post was in reference was in regards to the market being in a curious space with all of the great economic numbers. I was simply saying smart guys are in before the news and out after the news. Those smart guys are the big boys and they drive the market, imo.
OK, thanks for clarifying. Have a good one.
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(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2Fvckl27e8wx%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F659ab6bd46f08-1704638141.2906.png&t=1704656885&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1cfe-e3080d01bd00&sig=80b1ellUwuWaSXutuia.VA--~D)
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Also, GDP is the strongest of the industrialized world, while inflation is the lowest.
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Boeing (BA) down 9%+ at the open. I thought it might be even worse.
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I'd really like to buy some COST...if it's PE were half of what it is.
I know it always has a high PE, but 45x, just can't do it.
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I'd really like to buy some COST...if it's PE were half of what it is.
I know it always has a high PE, but 45x, just can't do it.
I always want more COST. But I am not always willing to pay for it!
Good luck waiting for that 22.5 PE ratio!!!
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https://twitter.com/stlouisfed/status/1745264320064127100?t=cjBESRXWy6guN9IPzCbRkQ&s=19
As measured by debt delinquency, the share of Americans experiencing financial distress rose in 2023. With credit card debt, the distress has returned to a level seen during the Great Recession
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i think people have trouble adjusting their spending habits. when things are good, they buy boats, cars, and "things" when things are bad, they struggle to live within their means and don't want to get rid of their boats, cars and "things" until they are faced with problems, divorce, substance abuses, etc.
many do not have a "rainy day fund" or a plan B
some try to get by on paying the bills with their CC's and taking the hit on their 401's, figuring as soon as we get out of this, they'll pay it off or pay it back...as opposed to not buying the boats and cars and "things" unfortunately, we live in a keeping up with the jones's world while all the jones's are under water too
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I think it’s the boats and cars but a bigger issue is the unplanned expenses - medical emergency, car repairs, etc. I also think the cost of housing in places where the best jobs are concentrated is getting to be a huge issue. Even in places that were considered “more affordable” twenty years ago seem to be getting less so.
I do think people do a poor job at financial planning overall though.
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Do some people spend irresponsibly? Yes.
Have wages lagged significantly behind productivity and inflation throughout the last 40 years? Also yes.
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Do some people spend irresponsibly? Yes.
Have wages lagged significantly behind productivity and inflation throughout the last 40 years? Also yes.
I watched this the other day. It touches a lot of what you and I mention here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sj-8pjt9Xk&t=624s
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For those inclined to take a high risk high reward play, I've been heavily invested in SAVA since 2019, and it has been through the ringer with short hedge funds throwing the kitchen sink at it..they are fully enrolled in their Phase 3 Alzheimer's trial and I feel their Phase 3 will be successful and result in massive valuation.
You can buy warrants currently for $6.75/share at SAVAW or regular shares at SAVA for $26. Warrants have a 1.5 share bonus, if you exercise for shares that would equate to a $22 cost basis. Warrants exercise at $33/share. You can read more on the Cassava Sciences website Investor Relations.
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Memo to Scoop Dividend Investors:
Estimated Taxes Due January 16
For those of you that had a lot of dividends and didn't withhold, pay 110% of last years taxes paid by January 16 for safe harbor from penalties.
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Greedflation. Get used to hearing the term.
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Greedflation. Get used to hearing the term.
Corporations pass through costs, in order to maintain profitability. Public Pension funds own vast pools of Corporate Equity and require returns in order satisfy the obligation they have to Pensioners.
Public Employees have mandatory inflation adjustments in their Pensions. What is the term for that?
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Quality negotiating.
Studies are out and more are coming that show a significant portion of the 2022 inflation was due to greedflation. I appreciate your rapid response indicating what the corporate defense will be.
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Greedflation. Get used to hearing the term.
Referencing this article?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/19/us-inflation-caused-by-corporate-profits
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Among others. But I have been referencing it since July.
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Corporations pass through costs, in order to maintain profitability. Public Pension funds own vast pools of Corporate Equity and require returns in order satisfy the obligation they have to Pensioners.
Public Employees have mandatory inflation adjustments in their Pensions. What is the term for that?
LOL
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Im not sure exactly what point that’s trying to make
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Im not sure exactly what point that’s trying to make
Public pensions are to blame for corporate profiteering, stock buybacks, mass layoffs, inflation and economic collapse?
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Easy red herring deflection.
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Quality negotiating.
Studies are out and more are coming that show a significant portion of the 2022 inflation was due to greedflation. I appreciate your rapid response indicating what the corporate defense will be.
In order to retain employees, wages have risen. Those are permanent increases . Employees don't go backward in wages once raises are made. Material costs have risen and combined with labor there is an inflationary cost spiral. Corporations need to sell their products and services at greater than the cost to produce.
From 2017 up until Covid shutdown in 2020 we had an excellent economic environment . Low inflation, Real wage and GDP growth with low interest . Was a winning scenario for Corporations , Their Customers , Consumers , Employees, Pensioners,Homeowners and Renters.
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Public pensions are to blame for corporate profiteering, stock buybacks, mass layoffs, inflation and economic collapse?
Mass layoffs? Economic collapse? lol
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In order to retain employees, wages have risen. Those are permanent increases . Employees don't go backward in wages once raises are made. Material costs have risen and combined with labor there is an inflationary cost spiral. Corporations need to sell their products and services at greater than the cost to produce.
From 2017 up until Covid shutdown in 2020 we had an excellent economic environment . Low inflation, Real wage and GDP growth with low interest . Was a winning scenario for Corporations , Their Customers , Consumers , Employees, Pensioners,Homeowners and Renters.
(https://imageio.forbes.com/blogs-images/timworstall/files/2016/10/wagescompensation-1200x1093.jpg)
Wages lag significantly from where they should be
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Mass layoffs? Economic collapse? lol
I just assumed herman was blaming them for everything bad in the US economy
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(https://imageio.forbes.com/blogs-images/timworstall/files/2016/10/wagescompensation-1200x1093.jpg)
Wages lag significantly from where they should be
Why should employers pay more if they are more productive paying relatively less?
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Why should employers pay more if they are more productive paying relatively less?
Because we want a stable society?
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The core issue at work in greedflation is the same as wage lag - consolidation and lack of competition. You can't run an economy on good feels and hoping businesses make less profit to pass on savings to customers or pay employees more. They have to be forced to do those things through competition. And its generally natural market forces that lead to that consolidation, so I'm not exactly sure what you do about it without 20x-ing the size of the SEC and turning it into an organization that makes Republicans' worst characterization of the IRS blush.
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The core issue at work in greedflation is the same as wage lag - consolidation and lack of competition. You can't run an economy on good feels and hoping businesses make less profit to pass on savings to customers or pay employees more. They have to be forced to do those things through competition. And its generally natural market forces that lead to that consolidation, so I'm not exactly sure what you do about it without 20x-ing the size of the SEC and turning it into an organization that makes Republican's worst boogeymanning of the IRS blush.
Good post burrow.
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The core issue at work in greedflation is the same as wage lag - consolidation and lack of competition. You can't run an economy on good feels and hoping businesses make less profit to pass on savings to customers or pay employees more. They have to be forced to do those things through competition. And its generally natural market forces that lead to that consolidation, so I'm not exactly sure what you do about it without 20x-ing the size of the SEC and turning it into an organization that makes Republicans' worst characterization of the IRS blush.
Completely fair. But it does need to be reported.
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(https://imageio.forbes.com/blogs-images/timworstall/files/2016/10/wagescompensation-1200x1093.jpg)
Wages lag significantly from where they should be
This graph reflects what has hapoened in the world.
The advances in technology have made automation possible in domestic production. For example in the pre 1980 era , Companies had very large typing and clerical pools . Similar things have happened in industrial production with automated machinery and equipment. Further many companies sent their production off shore.
Consumers are enjoying the benefit of an increased standard of living as a result of the low priced goods available at Walmart , Target , Costco etc
We have a medical system the envy of the world .
Our domestic technology industry is without peer and we are at the beginning of a new frontier of AI based productivity in many fields
Zoning policies and decades of low interest have fueled the growth in real estate values . Homeowners have been direct beneficiaries
Yes there is inflation. However , there is plenty of excess capacity and innovation that will impact price levels .
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I’m tired of winning over the last three years.
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In order to retain employees, wages have risen. Those are permanent increases . Employees don't go backward in wages once raises are made. Material costs have risen and combined with labor there is an inflationary cost spiral. Corporations need to sell their products and services at greater than the cost to produce.
From 2017 up until Covid shutdown in 2020 we had an excellent economic environment . Low inflation, Real wage and GDP growth with low interest . Was a winning scenario for Corporations , Their Customers , Consumers , Employees, Pensioners,Homeowners and Renters.
many have short memories-people made on average up to $5k more. less regulation, lower taxes, median household incomes hit all time high~$66k people could afford stuff, then covid hit
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many have short memories-people made on average up to $5k more. less regulation, lower taxes, median household incomes hit all time high~$66k people could afford stuff, then covid hit
I can afford whatever I want
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many have short memories-people made on average up to $5k more. less regulation, lower taxes, median household incomes hit all time high~$66k people could afford stuff, then covid hit
Brainwashed fool.
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In order to retain employees, wages have risen. Those are permanent increases . Employees don't go backward in wages once raises are made. Material costs have risen and combined with labor there is an inflationary cost spiral. Corporations need to sell their products and services at greater than the cost to produce.
From 2017 up until Covid shutdown in 2020 we had an excellent economic environment . Low inflation, Real wage and GDP growth with low interest . Was a winning scenario for Corporations , Their Customers , Consumers , Employees, Pensioners,Homeowners and Renters.
The economy wasn't bad, but it was not an "excellent economic environment." If so, why was the fed continually attempting to stimulate the economy? The answer: because it wasn't healthy on its own. There was low inflation and the GDP was essentially the same as it was under the previous administration, 2.5 v. 2.4 if memory serves. But look at what we have now, better GDP numbers, with inflation down to 3.2, great unemployment numbers all while the fed is trying to slow down the economy. Current policy working much better then the previous policy no doubt about it. The winning scenario was great while it lasted, but it was only available due to the fed stimulating an economy that, like it or not, could not stand on its own.
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The economy is stronger now. If Trump and his cultists were in charge and the exact same economic conditions existed, they'd be calling it The Best Economy Ever.
But sure, it was mostly good during his administration, too. That didn't stop him from calling Powell the enemy of the American people and threatening almost daily to fire Powell if he didn't reduce interest rates that didn't need to be reduced during a strong economy.
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From Seeking Alpha:
Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 4.4% Y/Y in the fourth quarter, according to data from LSEG, which should provide additional optimism for the market.
The S&P 500 (SPX) even hit a new all-time record high on Friday, with things looking good for the economy.
Solid profits and margins are being driven by strong spending, AI is boosting valuations, unemployment is low, rates are starting to come down, and many geopolitical tensions on the world stage have so far not directly impacted the American consumer.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greedflation-caused-more-half-last-100000899.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGgGU5c5s0WamON_9zY7rvSv9iY39qYDzB4_zti0Bnvyz6HMp5gtmLabxf6L8B2m8YfR3R1V8MqV8DBJ3krUFsggHvP3xx5KkCid03cj69cDSUjd2jynEroPi18NhxfAd-z1W6oDn-z3uYNo8lv_hVfSAyxxS3y-GlaLTyXR_w86
Corporate profits drove 53% of inflation during the second and third quarters of 2023 and more than one-third since the start of the pandemic, the report found, analyzing Commerce Department data. That’s a massive jump from the four decades prior to the pandemic, when profits drove just 11% of price growth.
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The economy is stronger now. If Trump and his cultists were in charge and the exact same economic conditions existed, they'd be calling it The Best Economy Ever.
But sure, it was mostly good during his administration, too. That didn't stop him from calling Powell the enemy of the American people and threatening almost daily to fire Powell if he didn't reduce interest rates that didn't need to be reduced during a strong economy.
At the end of the day, the President has very little to do with the economy, for better or worse. The United States will always have a robust economy, with the occasional down cycle, regardless of the party in power. This is due to many reasons that go beyond politics.
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At the end of the day, the President has very little to do with the economy, for better or worse. The United States will always have a robust economy, with the occasional down cycle, regardless of the party in power. This is due to many reasons that go beyond politics.
Ding, ding, ding ... we have a winner!
Little to do with the economy, and even less to do with the stock market.
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A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America. How would this affect your business and your portfolio?
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Brainwashed fool.
show me where i'm wrong here sally
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A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America. How would this affect your business and your portfolio?
I can’t speak for others, but I invest with a very long-term outlook and I’m quite diversified, so I really don’t think it would affect my portfolio that much.
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A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America. How would this affect your business and your portfolio?
Is it needed?
(https://images2.imgbox.com/54/bc/WvYwvw8n_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/WvYwvw8n)
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A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America. How would this affect your business and your portfolio?
Not good. Trade restrictions are not good. On the other hand, competition makes individuals and companies work harder to earn your money. Remember the auto companies of the 70s. You really want to go back to that. If so, why? Once trade restrictions were lifted the automakers made better products for better prices.
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A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America. How would this affect your business and your portfolio?
Trump's 25% tariffs plus quota on steel and aluminum messed up industry. It's one cause of the post-Covid inflation. I believe a 25% tariff on Chinese food remains in place.
The aluminum tariffs were dropped. The quotas remain in place but the steel tariffs are now 0% for Korea, Japan and Europe as long as it's below the quota amount. The problems arise that a lot of specialty alloys are not made at North American mills and you run into the quota amounts. The US steel mills love the tariffs and have grown as a result, but I also saw a figure that a net of 21,000 in the steel industry lost there company when they no longer could compete. These are people who imported steel and did secondary work on it and then sold
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Those tariffs also badly hurt American farmers. The backlash was so loud and swift that Trump had to create an all-new, taxpayer-funded welfare program for farmers.
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A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America. How would this affect your business and your portfolio?
Not speaking to a portfolio, but for business it hurts. Especially something like 10%. Cause realistically, thats a 10% tax on businesses, maybe 5% if you're fortunate enough to be able to pass some of it on.
10% isn't enough to shift manufacturing stateside because, even taking out the upfront costs to make a move, the discount for manufacturing abroad is far higher than 10%. So you're not going to enact real change and instead just add a new cost for businesses to bear. Some products/businesses have the room to pass that cost along, but higher up the chain, costs are so tight right now that expecting a 10% increase for the same product to be absorbed is not realistic.
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Plus, do we really have the infrastructure to simply move more manufacturing here? Don't we have a shortage of skilled trades workers?
It sounds more like an appeal to what America once was rather than what it should be.
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Not speaking to a portfolio, but for business it hurts. Especially something like 10%. Cause realistically, that's a 10% tax on businesses, maybe 5% if you're fortunate enough to be able to pass some of it on.
10% isn't enough to shift manufacturing stateside because, even taking out the upfront costs to make a move, the discount for manufacturing abroad is far higher than 10%. So you're not going to enact real change and instead just add a new cost for businesses to bear. Some products/businesses have the room to pass that cost along, but higher up the chain, costs are so tight right now that expecting a 10% increase for the same product to be absorbed is not realistic.
And there would be retaliatory tariffs. Increasing the cost of USA made products exported.
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Does anyone own single stocks for dividends? I am all index funds right now but thinking about branching out with some dividend stocks. Just curious if anyone is also doing this.
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Does anyone own single stocks for dividends? I am all index funds right now but thinking about branching out with some dividend stocks. Just curious if anyone is also doing this.
All my holdings are individual stocks. Part of the reason I do that is to control if and when I take Capital Gains .
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Plus, do we really have the infrastructure to simply move more manufacturing here? Don't we have a shortage of skilled trades workers?
It sounds more like an appeal to what America once was rather than what it should be.
What should it be?
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What should it be?
I think by and large it's fine now.
But the larger point is that people should stop appealing to the past, but articulate what they think the future should look like.
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I think by and large it's fine now.
But the larger point is that people should stop appealing to the past, but articulate what they think the future should look like.
I don't disagree about looking at the past.
I disagree with things are "fine" now. Lots of folks in severe economic hardship across the country through no fault of their own.
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I don't disagree about looking at the past.
I disagree with things are "fine" now. Lots of folks in severe economic hardship across the country through no fault of their own.
Could you name any period where that wasn’t the case?
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I don't disagree about looking at the past.
I disagree with things are "fine" now. Lots of folks in severe economic hardship across the country through no fault of their own.
Right. But that’s not really what I’m talking about. I’m talking about how people can make a living. I don’t think manufacturing jobs are the answer.
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Right. But that’s not really what I’m talking about. I’m talking about how people can make a living. I don’t think manufacturing jobs are the answer.
Ah. I understand your point now. Thanks for clarifying. I misunderstood your original statement.
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I don't disagree about looking at the past.
I disagree with things are "fine" now. Lots of folks in severe economic hardship across the country through no fault of their own.
Lots of jobs still available. If you know of someone experiencing economic hardship, tell them to grab one.
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We're too wealthy of a nation to do manufacturing inexpensively enough domestically to produce the goods at the prices that US consumers expect. The United States should be expanding NAFTA/USMCA to include the rest of central america. We should be investing in central american countries to move manufacturing there where it could be both inexpensive and nearshore, somewhat solving our dependence on ASEAN+China+India. Enriching those central american countries and their people will have the added benefit of significantly reducing immigration across the southern border.
Win win win imo.
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Lots of jobs still available. If you know of someone experiencing economic hardship, tell them to grab one.
I was referring to compensation, not job availability
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I was referring to compensation, not job availability
Compensation has gone up. There are jobs for anyone who wants one.
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Compensation has gone up. There are jobs for anyone who wants one.
(https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/FT_18.07.26_hourlyWage_adjusted.png)
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Does anyone own single stocks for dividends? I am all index funds right now but thinking about branching out with some dividend stocks. Just curious if anyone is also doing this.
Dividend Growth Investing - which does exactly what you describe - is my primary investing method. I own roughly 50 individual stocks.
I would never claim it's the best strategy for everybody, but it can be an effective one for those who want a relatively low-volatility way to grow an income stream while also generating competitive total return over the long term.
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Dividend Growth Investing - which does exactly what you describe - is my primary investing method. I own roughly 50 individual stocks.
I would never claim it's the best strategy for everybody, but it can be an effective one for those who want a relatively low-volatility way to grow an income stream while also generating competitive total return over the long term.
Care to share some of your stocks picks? Haha
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Care to share some of your stocks picks? Haha
PMed you.
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Musk sold billions of dollars worth of Tesla stock to help pay for his acquisition of Twitter -- an overpriced company he didn't even want -- and now he's trying to strong-arm the Tesla board into giving him billions of dollars worth of Tesla stock. Threatening to develop new AI products outside of Tesla, Musk is basically blackballing the company he built.
TSLA had a poor earnings report after market close yesterday and opened this morning down about 9%, back well under $200/share.
As a TSLA shareholder, it's uncomfortable having such an unstable megalomaniac at the helm.
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Blackmailing, not blackballing.
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Another horrendous economic report.
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Another horrendous economic report.
But what about all of those articles and tweets from perma-bear economists? lol
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Blackmailing, not blackballing.
Another hilarious autocorrect. Another one too funny to change!
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Musk sold billions of dollars worth of Tesla stock to help pay for his acquisition of Twitter -- an overpriced company he didn't even want -- and now he's trying to strong-arm the Tesla board into giving him billions of dollars worth of Tesla stock. Threatening to develop new AI products outside of Tesla, Musk is basically blackballing the company he built.
TSLA had a poor earnings report after market close yesterday and opened this morning down about 9%, back well under $200/share.
As a TSLA shareholder, it's uncomfortable having such an unstable megalomaniac at the helm.
Honestly, feelingss about Musk and his political views/social views/etc... aside, my biggest concern as a TSLA shareholder or stakeholder would just be how thin he's spread. It was the same was as Jack Dorsey running both TWTR and Square/Block.
Doofuses on social media like to pretend CEOs don't do anything or they aren't valuable, but everyone in this thread is business savvy and knowledgeable enough to know that isn't true at all. Especially for a huge public company doing billions of dollars in revenue. How can you be truly efficient and exemplary looking after multiple at a time. This isn't a portfolio company with a couple businesses underneath. Musk being CEO of SpaceX and TSLA, in addition to his other smaller ventures, was a huge ask. Adding X into it is absurd from a personal/mental resource perspective. Then you add all the other non-business complications he causes and invites.
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Honestly, feelingss about Musk and his political views/social views/etc... aside, my biggest concern as a TSLA shareholder or stakeholder would just be how thin he's spread. It was the same was as Jack Dorsey running both TWTR and Square/Block.
Doofuses on social media like to pretend CEOs don't do anything or they aren't valuable, but everyone in this thread is business savvy and knowledgeable enough to know that isn't true at all. Especially for a huge public company doing billions of dollars in revenue. How can you be truly efficient and exemplary looking after multiple at a time. This isn't a portfolio company with a couple businesses underneath. Musk being CEO of SpaceX and TSLA, in addition to his other smaller ventures, was a huge ask. Adding X into it is absurd from a personal/mental resource perspective. Then you add all the other non-business complications he causes and invites.
Agree.
That he often sounds unhinged is the cherry on top.
He generally has been a very good steward for TSLA and SpaceX.
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Elon prevented me from buying TSLA early on. I didn’t think he was concerned enough about shareholders; too product focused and betting the company over and over on difficult engineering and manufacturing leaps. They worked and he was right. But he is still a wild card. He is a visionary, and can drive people to produce and a risk taker, but just is a mental mess as well.
I won’t sell what I have, I won’t buy more now. I think there should be a lower entry pint over the next 12 to 18 months. Then buy. Believe in TSLA long term unless the Chinese can sell freely in the US or Europe, then it’s not going to be good for any US car company.
They will sell 2M plus cars this year, at lower prices and same or lower margins. The cyber truck will sell at higher margins and as many as they can produce. The problem is that the Cybertruck ramp up will likely be slow and so they won’t sell as many as they could. Again, Ellen doing the difficult and recreating the engineering and manufacturing wheels.
The catalyst comes in about 2 years with the new platform and higher volume cyber production. Must is always over optimistic, so I’m thinking 2026 for the new platform and then a year to ramp up. They will sell a lot of cars 3 years from now. But the lull for the next 12 to 18 months should hurt the stock until they prove high volume cyber production and introduce the new platform.
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A lot of good insight there, GOO.
As I write this, TSLA is down more than 12% to about $182. Criminy.
Meanwhile, on a more fun note ...
Ever since Douchey dared Scoopers to buy doomed DIS on Sept. 8, it's up 15%; it's crushing SPY and even beating QQQ.
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Economy is boiling again, quick glance looks like growth stocks behaving like rates are going to get hiked again. Wouldn't be surprised.
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A lot 3.-somethings right now.
3.-something unemployment
3.-something inflation
3.- something growth over the 4th quarter of 2023.
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A lot 3.-somethings right now.
3.-something unemployment
3.-something inflation
3.- something growth over the 4th quarter of 2023.
Even Ben Gold hit 3 3s!
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The economy is great
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rent-homelessness-harvard-report-center-for-housing-studies/
Record number of Americans are homeless amid nationwide surge in rent, report finds
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The economy is great
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rent-homelessness-harvard-report-center-for-housing-studies/
The cause is greed - not the economy. Corporate interests have realized that rent is one more area where less fortunate people can be screwed over and have jumped at the chance to be the screwer rather than the screwee.
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I volunteer with a group that works with homeless that do not, or cannot, stay at shelters. Number of reasons why they chose not to visit shelters and not really important. That said, the number of people being served/taken care of is up almost 100% since last year.
It is amazing that in many of our suburban communities there are homeless people. Some of their creativity on shelter is impressive. The group I am helping is now covering a very big part of MKE county.
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I volunteer with a group that works with homeless that do not, or cannot, stay at shelters. Number of reasons why they chose not to visit shelters and not really important. That said, the number of people being served/taken care of is up almost 100% since last year.
It is amazing that in many of our suburban communities there are homeless people. Some of their creativity on shelter is impressive. The group I am helping is now covering a very big part of MKE county.
Thanks for your time/effort, G
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The cause is greed - not the economy. Corporate interests have realized that rent is one more area where less fortunate people can be screwed over and have jumped at the chance to be the screwer rather than the screwee.
Do you think voters who are on the financial edge hear/see/read articles/headlines/stories about how "great the economy is doing" agree with that premise?
I would surmise average folks hear the word "economy" and look at their household income vs expenditures. Is it going well for those folks?
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I volunteer with a group that works with homeless that do not, or cannot, stay at shelters. Number of reasons why they chose not to visit shelters and not really important. That said, the number of people being served/taken care of is up almost 100% since last year.
It is amazing that in many of our suburban communities there are homeless people. Some of their creativity on shelter is impressive. The group I am helping is now covering a very big part of MKE county.
It is a great thing you are doing.
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Do you think voters who are on the financial edge hear/see/read articles/headlines/stories about how "great the economy is doing" agree with that premise?
I would surmise average folks hear the word "economy" and look at their household income vs expenditures. Is it going well for those folks?
You posted about 'rent'. I responded and you changed what you were talking about (i.e. moving the goalposts in the best Heisy tradition).
Institutional investors may control 40% of U.S. single-family rental homes by 2030, according to MetLife Investment Management. This is the single biggest problem when it comes to increased rent costs.
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You posted about 'rent'. I responded and you changed what you were talking about (i.e. moving the goalposts in the best Heisy tradition).
Institutional investors may control 40% of U.S. single-family rental homes by 2030, according to MetLife Investment Management. This is the single biggest problem when it comes to increased rent costs.
My apologies. I wasn't trying to deceive.
I was merely pointing out that I believe the average voter does not find a meaningful difference between "economy" and their household financial situation - which includes rent in some cases.
So seeing constant information about how "good" the economy is flies directly in contrast with their personal experience.
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My apologies. I wasn't trying to deceive.
I was merely pointing out that I believe the average voter does not find a meaningful difference between "economy" and their household financial situation - which includes rent in some cases.
So seeing constant information about how "good" the economy is flies directly in contrast with their personal experience.
My apology as well.
I don't disagree with your point here.
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I volunteer with a group that works with homeless that do not, or cannot, stay at shelters. Number of reasons why they chose not to visit shelters and not really important. That said, the number of people being served/taken care of is up almost 100% since last year.
It is amazing that in many of our suburban communities there are homeless people. Some of their creativity on shelter is impressive. The group I am helping is now covering a very big part of MKE county.
big kudos goose for your service-quite the humbling experiences
i have done the WDA missions of mercy over the years at different locations throughout the state, from lacrosse to sheboygan to green bay, milwaukee and lake geneva-what i realized in speaking to many of these people is that many are fairly well educated, but leading causes of their situations are not much different from those in the inner cities-domestic abuse is a root cause along with social media stigmatization's. these lead to poor choices distracting them from what they need to do in order to stay afloat or thrive.
they do not have much room for error with the good or bad choices they make. the pressure on people today to have "nice" things is crazy. if you aren't in a health care "club"(insurance) look out
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Good stuff, Rocket. That is great work you are doing. Representing the MS boys in fine fashion!!
One of my big gripes in life is that I do not think a lot of people understand just how fragile life is for some people. Granted, there are homeless people that are in that position because of lifelong poor decision making and that is real. On the other hand, there are a lot of people that were dealt a life altering blow and feel hopeless.
It really breaks my heart to see people suffering. A good number of people that avoid shelters do so because not allowed in because of drug or alcohol abuse and that is their choice. That said, I believe they need help and I am glad there are groups that help them. There has been some great recovery stories in the group over the past year and that shows anything is possible.
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From a Washington Post article about the U.S. economy outperforming those of other developed countries:
The $28 trillion U.S. economy weathered multiple shocks over the past year and returned to the growth path it was on before the pandemic. The size of the economy, adjusted for inflation, regained its pre-pandemic peak in early 2021. Through the end of September, it was more than 7 percent larger than before the pandemic. That was more than twice Japan’s gain and far better than Germany’s anemic 0.3 percent increase, according to British Parliament data.
For most Americans, the growth paid off in the form of higher wages. Over the four years through September, the most recent comparison available, U.S. wages — after inflation — grew 2.8 percent.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/01/28/global-economy-gdp-inflation/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most
I wish we still had an Economy thread so this stuff didn't have to be in the Investing thread, but that's the way it is. The economy and investing are related, but they aren't the same thing.
The U.S. economy isn't perfect, obviously, but it is healthy and growing by most available data.
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Good stuff, Rocket. That is great work you are doing. Representing the MS boys in fine fashion!!
One of my big gripes in life is that I do not think a lot of people understand just how fragile life is for some people. Granted, there are homeless people that are in that position because of lifelong poor decision making and that is real. On the other hand, there are a lot of people that were dealt a life altering blow and feel hopeless.
It really breaks my heart to see people suffering. A good number of people that avoid shelters do so because not allowed in because of drug or alcohol abuse and that is their choice. That said, I believe they need help and I am glad there are groups that help them. There has been some great recovery stories in the group over the past year and that shows anything is possible.
right on goose-i don't want to turn this nice thread thread into something else, but one more thing and i'll shut up-ya'll know i'm not a big gubmint guy but if there's one area they could allocate more money to, especially with the fentanyl pouring over the border is more rehab and counseling services. drugs and alcohol are a BIG root cause of familial breakdown and homelessness. social workers and counselors make squat and it is very stressful, but much needed job
someone could start a thread on this, but probably wouldn't last unfortunately
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82
You do not seem shy on starting threads and
Thoughts and Prayers for the US economy would be another feather in your cap.
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82
You do not seem shy on starting threads and
Thoughts and Prayers for the US economy would be another feather in your cap.
There's no reason for thoughts and prayers for the U.S. economy, Goose, though I do appreciate you stirring the pot here.
I don't re-start threads that the mods have closed. You're welcome to do so, though.
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right on goose-i don't want to turn this nice thread thread into something else, but one more thing and i'll shut up-ya'll know i'm not a big gubmint guy but if there's one area they could allocate more money to, especially with the fentanyl pouring over the border is more rehab and counseling services. drugs and alcohol are a BIG root cause of familial breakdown and homelessness. social workers and counselors make squat and it is very stressful, but much needed job
someone could start a thread on this, but probably wouldn't last unfortunately
Source please
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Source please
if you need a source for this, i'll shave my head and go streaking at half time of MU's next home game with bunny slippers on
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if you need a source for this, i'll shave my head and go streaking at half time of MU's next home game with bunny slippers on
You made a statement that seemed to imply you knew of data/evidence. I only was asking for the evidence that shows fentanyl "pouring" in across the US/MEX border. Especially because that would imply that Fentanyl is coming in more that route than any other route
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It also has nothing to do with investing.
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82
You love being the hall monitor. I find that to be very ironic and extremely funny.
Go MU!!
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Fentanyl is a scourge. But it has been for over 15 years. It has never been political to me. It was just one more thing to deal with And it has nothing to do with investing.
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Fentanyl is a scourge. But it has been for over 15 years. It has never been political to me. It was just one more thing to deal with And it has nothing to do with investing.
You could invest in Chinese pharma companies, that's where the precursors come from
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82
You love being the hall monitor. I find that to be very ironic and extremely funny.
Go MU!!
You really are quite the pot-stirrer today!
We Are Marquette!
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Source please
https://x.com/nickmmark/status/1751040181153702142?s=46&t=1VPsVLoWWbtblV9sGVm3Jg
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/white-house-clinic-improperly-distributed-controlled-substances-previo-rcna135787
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Not investing.
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Not investing.
Oh, you're such a hall monitor trying to keep the Investing thread about investing.
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right on goose-i don't want to turn this nice thread thread into something else, but one more thing and i'll shut up-ya'll know i'm not a big gubmint guy but if there's one area they could allocate more money to, especially with the fentanyl pouring over the border is more rehab and counseling services. drugs and alcohol are a BIG root cause of familial breakdown and homelessness. social workers and counselors make squat and it is very stressful, but much needed job
someone could start a thread on this, but probably wouldn't last unfortunately
I think that is something that we could all agree on. Increased pay for healthcare workers, social workers, and counselors would be a great first step.
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anyone watching meta and amazon? bought some of each last october and pretty glad i did. on news of potential dividends and nice earnings reports. meta is up over 20% and amzn 8%
btw, sold my tesla at $250-just had a feeling that EV sentiment was going to settle down given some of the concerns regarding battery issues. i still think EV's will find their niche
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anyone watching meta and amazon? bought some of each last october and pretty glad i did. on news of potential dividends and nice earnings reports. meta is up over 20% and amzn 8%
btw, sold my tesla at $250-just had a feeling that EV sentiment was going to settle down given some of the concerns regarding battery issues. i still think EV's will find their niche
EVs continue to set records on sales.
I realize that's different than what investors think stock is worth.
Concerned at all about the recent congressional hearings re: meta?
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anyone watching meta and amazon? bought some of each last october and pretty glad i did. on news of potential dividends and nice earnings reports. meta is up over 20% and amzn 8%
btw, sold my tesla at $250-just had a feeling that EV sentiment was going to settle down given some of the concerns regarding battery issues. i still think EV's will find their niche
EVs will mostly replace ICE autos in the next decade. The current models have gone as far as they can on the tech that is available and infrastructure.
I think it will be far more likely that people own one EV and one hybrid instead of two ICE autos.
Otherwise good timing on the META and Amazon decisions they're doing really well since you bought. Have you sold your CCL stock?
I stopped buying individual stocks because I only pick losers lol. ;D
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EVs will mostly replace ICE autos in the next decade. The current models have gone as far as they can on the tech that is available and infrastructure.
I think it will be far more likely that people own one EV and one hybrid instead of two ICE autos.
Otherwise good timing on the META and Amazon decisions they're doing really well since you bought. Have you sold your CCL stock?
I stopped buying individual stocks because I only pick losers lol. ;D
yes i sold ccl quite a long time ago, needed the money for something else and thought it was too volatile on downside
i like hybrids although i don't own one myself. i could see buying one of those before a full EV. i've uber'ed in a few and i'd probably total it watching the dashboard energy flow
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I don't understand hybrids.
If I want the simplicity of an EV, I buy that.
If I want the reliability & range of an ice, I buy that.
If I mix the two? It's an ice and ev blended to create a festiva.
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I don't understand hybrids.
If I want the simplicity of an EV, I buy that.
If I want the reliability & range of an ice, I buy that.
If I mix the two? It's an ice and ev blended to create a festiva.
We have two hybrids. They get between 35-40 mpg. At the time we bought the first (2016), very few EVs were out there and certainly none that we would want to own. At the time we bought the second (2023), there was a major shortage on EVs, especially affordable ones.
We get good mileage. We never have to worry about not being able to find a charger. The cost of the cars was much lower than similarly equipped EVs.
I wouldn't mind owning an EV one day - and if we live and drive long enough, we probably will. But hybrids have their role. Toyota, for one, is all-in on them.
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But hybrids have their role. Toyota, for one, is all-in on them.
I don't disagree. And hybrids have their role. But as a guy that owns one 25 year old jeep. My only vehicle, and require it be reliable (because, I can't completely survive without a vehicle). I can't justify a hybrid - in general. If I were to buy a new vehicle, it would be a Toyota or Honda ice because of the "old cars I still see on the road".
I realize that I'm short bus special, and not "every guy looking for a car" ;D
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I don't disagree. And hybrids have their role. But as a guy that owns one 25 year old jeep. My only vehicle, and require it be reliable (because, I can't completely survive without a vehicle). I can't justify a hybrid - in general. If I were to buy a new vehicle, it would be a Toyota or Honda ice because of the "old cars I still see on the road".
I realize that I'm short bus special, and not "every guy looking for a car" ;D
I appreciate all that. But Toyota is actually selling fewer and fewer non-hybrid ICE vehicles. For example, starting with the 2025 model year, you won't be able to buy a new-model Camry that isn't a hybrid.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyotas-camry-best-selling-car-us-goes-all-hybrid-2023-11-15/#:~:text=Compliance%20with%20tougher%20U.S.%20fuel,in%20North%20America%2C%20told%20Reuters.
As to you needing something reliable ... I have several friends and acquaintances who own Priuses that are 10+ years old and that are still running great.
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I don't understand hybrids.
If I want the simplicity of an EV, I buy that.
If I want the reliability & range of an ice, I buy that.
If I mix the two? It's an ice and ev blended to create a festiva.
I had a Lynk & Co (Chinese made Volvo, and coming to USA this year) rental in France last year. It got like 50-60 miles per gallon. I had to ask Hertz how it worked because when you started the car nothing happens. You have to look for "Ready to go" notification after push button starting. Engine wouldn't turn on until another minute of driving.
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I don't disagree. And hybrids have their role. But as a guy that owns one 25 year old jeep. My only vehicle, and require it be reliable (because, I can't completely survive without a vehicle). I can't justify a hybrid - in general. If I were to buy a new vehicle, it would be a Toyota or Honda ice because of the "old cars I still see on the road".
I realize that I'm short bus special, and not "every guy looking for a car" ;D
Does not compute
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Does not compute
Those mid-late 90s grand cherokees were built pretty well.
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I went to the Porsche Experience Center last week and drove a 911 Carrera 4S (ICE). After finishing my run, I talked to a guy who drove a Taycan 4S (EV). He said he drove it to compare it to the 911 Carrera 4S that he already owns. After driving the Taycan, according to him, there is no way he will be giving up his current Porsche. He was not impressed with the performance of the EV vs the ICE, especially getting to the apex of the turn and then accelerating into the straight away. Just one anecdote, but I have heard similar thoughts from Porsche drivers before.
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I went to the Porsche Experience Center last week and drove a 911 Carrera 4S (ICE). After finishing my run, I talked to a guy who drove a Taycan 4S (EV). He said he drove it to compare it to the 911 Carrera 4S that he already owns. After driving the Taycan, according to him, there is no way he will be giving up his current Porsche. He was not impressed with the performance of the EV vs the ICE, especially getting to the apex of the turn and then accelerating into the straight away. Just one anecdote, but I have heard similar thoughts from Porsche drivers before.
Also anecdotal, but I know two sports car drivers (one has a 911, the other has an M3 and an RS6). Both looked at EV sports models from those 3 automakers, and one key factor for both, besides performance, was engine sound. It’s one thing for a sedan or daily driver or even SUV, but for a performance vehicle, there is something to be said for the ICE sound vs the EV.
But YMMV. Hell, I remember valeting at MCC in the mid 2000s and a prominent Milwaukee developer had a SLICK 911 GT3…in automatic. And not the tiptronic combo type with paddle shifters you see now. Just a flat out P/R/D/N single rail in the middle.
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EVs just drive so differently. They're incredibly heavy so they're not fun in the corners. They're more like American muscle, born for straightaways, than they are like nimble enthusiast cars.
Electric cars will fill the broad middle for small daily drivers, IMO. They're not some panacea.
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From the Wall Street Journal, under the headline: The Money and Drugs That Tie Elon Musk to Some Tesla Directors ... and the subhead: Board members have reaped hundreds of millions from stock awards and separate investments, even as some have done drugs with Musk; former Tesla director Larry Ellison offered him a chance to dry out ...
Many board members at Elon Musk's companies have deep personal and financial ties to the billionaire entrepreneur, and have profited enormously from the relationship. The connections are an extreme blurring of friendship and fortune and raise questions among some shareholders about the independence of the board members charged with overseeing the chief executive.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-money-drugs-board-61af9ac4?mod=djemwhatsnews
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From the Wall Street Journal, under the headline: The Money and Drugs That Tie Elon Musk to Some Tesla Directors ... and the subhead: Board members have reaped hundreds of millions from stock awards and separate investments, even as some have done drugs with Musk; former Tesla director Larry Ellison offered him a chance to dry out ...
Many board members at Elon Musk's companies have deep personal and financial ties to the billionaire entrepreneur, and have profited enormously from the relationship. The connections are an extreme blurring of friendship and fortune and raise questions among some shareholders about the independence of the board members charged with overseeing the chief executive.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-money-drugs-board-61af9ac4?mod=djemwhatsnews
wow, almost like jeffrey epstein and his "pals" don't think billybob tried to talk jeff out of his "habits" though
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wow, almost like jeffrey epstein and his "pals" don't think billybob tried to talk jeff out of his "habits" though
8 out of 10
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8 out of 10
gosh dang there's that class clown reeko only 11 minutes late ...musta missed me
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gosh dang there's that class clown reeko only 11 minutes late ...musta missed me
I’m glad you compared Elon to Jeffrey Epstein. Very similar people, imo
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wow, almost like jeffrey epstein and his "pals" don't think billybob tried to talk jeff out of his "habits" though
I have no idea what you’re talking about.
Why would you support a CEO who gives jobs and wealth to his unqualified druggie friends? I thought you were firmly against affirmative action.
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From the Wall Street Journal, under the headline: The Money and Drugs That Tie Elon Musk to Some Tesla Directors ... and the subhead: Board members have reaped hundreds of millions from stock awards and separate investments, even as some have done drugs with Musk; former Tesla director Larry Ellison offered him a chance to dry out ...
Many board members at Elon Musk's companies have deep personal and financial ties to the billionaire entrepreneur, and have profited enormously from the relationship. The connections are an extreme blurring of friendship and fortune and raise questions among some shareholders about the independence of the board members charged with overseeing the chief executive.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-money-drugs-board-61af9ac4?mod=djemwhatsnews
In one of the other WSJ articles, it is pointed out Musk created over $650 Billion in shareholder value during the term of his contract. He can take all the drugs he wants and have as many conflicts as possible if he keeps that performance up.
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In one of the other WSJ articles, it is pointed out Musk created over $650 Billion in shareholder value during the term of his contract. He can take all the drugs he wants and have as many conflicts as possible if he keeps that performance up.
And be anti-Semitic
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In one of the other WSJ articles, it is pointed out Musk created over $650 Billion in shareholder value during the term of his contract. He can take all the drugs he wants and have as many conflicts as possible if he keeps that performance up.
Two tiered society
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When I heard Apple was coming out with a $3,500 virtual reality headset that would look crazy-huge on anyone's face, my initial reaction was: "Who's gonna buy that?"
Turns out, 180K units were sold even before the Vision Pro's official launch - that's $630M before the product even hit stores, online retailers and the official Apple website.
From the NYT DealBook newsletter ...
The NYT’s Kevin Roose says: “I still have no idea whom or what this thing is supposed to be for. At $3,500, it’s not a device for the masses, or even the mass affluent. It’s a big, honking statement piece — a status symbol for your face.”
The WSJ's Joanna Stern says to look past the deficiencies of this first-generation product. “It’s the best mixed-reality headset I’ve ever tried, way more advanced than its only real competition, the far cheaper Meta Quest Pro and Quest 3. These companies know these aren’t really the devices we want. They’re all working toward building virtual experiences into something that looks more like a pair of regular eyeglasses.”
Casey Neistat, a digital influencer, was blown away. “In summary, buy Apple stock cause this is without a doubt a new product category that they will see through.”
I've lost track of how many times over AAPL stock has appreciated since our own Douchey told his fellow Scoopers to sell it ... but it's a ton.
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I have no idea what you’re talking about.
Why would you support a CEO who gives jobs and wealth to his unqualified druggie friends? I thought you were firmly against affirmative action.
where did i say "support" a CEO who gives jobs...
sold my stock in tesla
don't own a tesla
why would you support a known pedophile who befriended a number of people you support and ruined countless lives
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why would you support a known pedophile who befriended a number of people you support and ruined countless lives
So when he says "I have no idea what you are talking about," you consider that "support?"
English. Learn it. Use it.
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So when he says "I have no idea what you are talking about," you consider that "support?"
English. Learn it. Use it.
dittos atcha sally
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why would you support a known pedophile who befriended a number of people you support and ruined countless lives
Wut? I don't support any Catholic priests.
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I saw this the other day in regards to public investment. Political interference hurting investment returns.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/republicans-woke-capital-esg-investment/677294/
The War on ‘Woke Capital’ Is Backfiring
Republicans want to outlaw state investment in funds they see as tainted by progressive ideology. They’ll probably just get lower returns.
By James Surowiecki
One of the stranger political crusades of the past few years has been the Republican war on so-called woke capital, which has led GOP politicians across the country to adopt a kind of anti-corporate, pro-regulatory rhetoric that one normally associates with the left wing of the Democratic Party. And among the GOP’s favorite targets in this war has been ESG investing—investment funds that take “environmental, social, and governance” considerations into account.
For Republicans, ESG funds are a Trojan horse, designed to smuggle progressive attitudes toward climate change, and diversity and inclusion, into executive suites and corporate boardrooms, all under the guise of supposedly improving investment returns. And so, in red states, state treasurers have pulled public money out of firms that are associated with ESG, including even some of the world’s biggest investment firms, such as BlackRock and State Street.
On top of that, Republican legislatures in at least 20 states have adopted anti-ESG rules of one sort or another. Last year, after the Biden administration revised a Trump-era rule to make clear that pension-fund managers could use ESG if it did not hurt investment returns, Republicans in the House and Senate (along with two Senate Democrats) passed a resolution seeking to repeal the rule. And a coalition of Republican state attorneys general filed suit in federal court to have the rule overturned. (Biden vetoed the congressional resolution, and a district court tossed out the lawsuit, so the rule remains in effect.)
But the ESG front in the right’s war on woke capital is still active. Republican legislators in New Hampshire are now trying to raise the stakes. Earlier this month, they proposed a bill that would order any government agency investing state funds to ensure that no public money goes to investors who manage their funds “with any regard whatsoever based on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria.” More striking, the bill would make it a felony to knowingly violate this order. (The wording of the bill does not attempt to define ESG, aside from using this catchphrase language.) In other words, the bill would effectively criminalize any ESG investments on the state’s behalf.
As I wrote last year, ESG investing is far from the vehicle for woke capitalism that Republicans say it is. Instead, it’s largely a faddish label that allows investment managers to pretend they’re doing good while mostly doing business as usual. The ESG trend also hit a wall in the past year, thanks in part to the political backlash and in part to the accurate perception that it chiefly amounts to greenwashing. The Republican Party is really battling against a specter of its own imagining.
Even so, that battle has the potential to do actual damage. ESG investing may be dumb, but laws like this possible one in New Hampshire are even dumber. For a party supposedly dedicated to the free market, the GOP has become oddly comfortable with trying to dictate how investors make decisions.
In the simplest sense, after all, the new law would effectively exclude many investment companies from consideration—even if their funds’ track records suggest that they might outperform the market. (Again, this could include giant, mainstream firms such as BlackRock.) It would eliminate the possibility of using, say, funds that pay attention to climate-change risk as a hedge against that risk, even if a state’s pension fund also had many investments in fossil-fuel companies.
And the broadness of the law’s language—including, most notably, its prohibition on funds that use ESG criteria “with any regard whatsoever”—would likely ban investments in funds that take environmental factors into consideration, even when those considerations were plainly relevant to future corporate prospects. That could easily apply to such firms as ExxonMobil and Tesla.
Most odd, the bill would effectively prohibit investments in firms that take corporate governance into account, which would keep fund managers from explicitly considering such factors as board composition, concentration of power in the hands of the CEO, executive pay, and so on. These considerations arguably fall within the fiduciary responsibility of the fund manager—the bill would outlaw the work of a professional who does basic due diligence about the security of clients’ money. Making it a felony to invest money with firms that explicitly pay attention to the problem of, say, excessive CEO power would, of course, be great for executives who want to run their companies like private fiefdoms, indifferent to shareholder interests. But it would be terrible for investors—and for companies themselves.
Naturally, the authors of the bill include some weasely language in the legislation that gives them plausible deniability when it comes to the obvious negative business consequences the law would have. The bill would make it a felony only if state money is invested “knowingly in a manner violating fiduciary duty concerning environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria.” In other words, if the state agency doing the investing can prove that using ESG criteria was in line with its fiduciary duty, it could escape the felony charge.
The problem, of course, is that no government officials are going to take the risk of being dragged into court because they included the wrong fund as an investment choice. So even if actually enforcing the law might be challenging—how do you prove that taking governance into account was not financially motivated?—agencies will take the easy way out, and simply blacklist any company that mentions ESG (or perhaps even the words governance and environment). And that chilling effect is, of course, exactly the point of the law.
The New Hampshire bill justifies itself by citing the need for the state to earn “the highest return on investment for New Hampshire’s taxpayers and retirees.” But both federal and state laws already legally oblige investment managers to maximize risk-adjusted returns. The paradox is that by narrowing the range of potential investment options, while also effectively barring the state from using some of the world’s biggest investment firms, the New Hampshire law might well reduce returns, not increase them. But for the people writing such legislation, that’s perhaps a small price to pay to teach woke capital a lesson.
Support for this project was provided by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.
James Surowiecki is a contributing writer for The Atlantic and the author of The Wisdom of Crowds. He also blogs at Medium.
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I saw this the other day in regards to public investment. Political interference hurting investment returns.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/republicans-woke-capital-esg-investment/677294/
The War on ‘Woke Capital’ Is Backfiring
Republicans want to outlaw state investment in funds they see as tainted by progressive ideology. They’ll probably just get lower returns.
By James Surowiecki
One of the stranger political crusades of the past few years has been the Republican war on so-called woke capital, which has led GOP politicians across the country to adopt a kind of anti-corporate, pro-regulatory rhetoric that one normally associates with the left wing of the Democratic Party. And among the GOP’s favorite targets in this war has been ESG investing—investment funds that take “environmental, social, and governance” considerations into account.
For Republicans, ESG funds are a Trojan horse, designed to smuggle progressive attitudes toward climate change, and diversity and inclusion, into executive suites and corporate boardrooms, all under the guise of supposedly improving investment returns. And so, in red states, state treasurers have pulled public money out of firms that are associated with ESG, including even some of the world’s biggest investment firms, such as BlackRock and State Street.
On top of that, Republican legislatures in at least 20 states have adopted anti-ESG rules of one sort or another. Last year, after the Biden administration revised a Trump-era rule to make clear that pension-fund managers could use ESG if it did not hurt investment returns, Republicans in the House and Senate (along with two Senate Democrats) passed a resolution seeking to repeal the rule. And a coalition of Republican state attorneys general filed suit in federal court to have the rule overturned. (Biden vetoed the congressional resolution, and a district court tossed out the lawsuit, so the rule remains in effect.)
But the ESG front in the right’s war on woke capital is still active. Republican legislators in New Hampshire are now trying to raise the stakes. Earlier this month, they proposed a bill that would order any government agency investing state funds to ensure that no public money goes to investors who manage their funds “with any regard whatsoever based on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria.” More striking, the bill would make it a felony to knowingly violate this order. (The wording of the bill does not attempt to define ESG, aside from using this catchphrase language.) In other words, the bill would effectively criminalize any ESG investments on the state’s behalf.
As I wrote last year, ESG investing is far from the vehicle for woke capitalism that Republicans say it is. Instead, it’s largely a faddish label that allows investment managers to pretend they’re doing good while mostly doing business as usual. The ESG trend also hit a wall in the past year, thanks in part to the political backlash and in part to the accurate perception that it chiefly amounts to greenwashing. The Republican Party is really battling against a specter of its own imagining.
Even so, that battle has the potential to do actual damage. ESG investing may be dumb, but laws like this possible one in New Hampshire are even dumber. For a party supposedly dedicated to the free market, the GOP has become oddly comfortable with trying to dictate how investors make decisions.
In the simplest sense, after all, the new law would effectively exclude many investment companies from consideration—even if their funds’ track records suggest that they might outperform the market. (Again, this could include giant, mainstream firms such as BlackRock.) It would eliminate the possibility of using, say, funds that pay attention to climate-change risk as a hedge against that risk, even if a state’s pension fund also had many investments in fossil-fuel companies.
And the broadness of the law’s language—including, most notably, its prohibition on funds that use ESG criteria “with any regard whatsoever”—would likely ban investments in funds that take environmental factors into consideration, even when those considerations were plainly relevant to future corporate prospects. That could easily apply to such firms as ExxonMobil and Tesla.
Most odd, the bill would effectively prohibit investments in firms that take corporate governance into account, which would keep fund managers from explicitly considering such factors as board composition, concentration of power in the hands of the CEO, executive pay, and so on. These considerations arguably fall within the fiduciary responsibility of the fund manager—the bill would outlaw the work of a professional who does basic due diligence about the security of clients’ money. Making it a felony to invest money with firms that explicitly pay attention to the problem of, say, excessive CEO power would, of course, be great for executives who want to run their companies like private fiefdoms, indifferent to shareholder interests. But it would be terrible for investors—and for companies themselves.
Naturally, the authors of the bill include some weasely language in the legislation that gives them plausible deniability when it comes to the obvious negative business consequences the law would have. The bill would make it a felony only if state money is invested “knowingly in a manner violating fiduciary duty concerning environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria.” In other words, if the state agency doing the investing can prove that using ESG criteria was in line with its fiduciary duty, it could escape the felony charge.
The problem, of course, is that no government officials are going to take the risk of being dragged into court because they included the wrong fund as an investment choice. So even if actually enforcing the law might be challenging—how do you prove that taking governance into account was not financially motivated?—agencies will take the easy way out, and simply blacklist any company that mentions ESG (or perhaps even the words governance and environment). And that chilling effect is, of course, exactly the point of the law.
The New Hampshire bill justifies itself by citing the need for the state to earn “the highest return on investment for New Hampshire’s taxpayers and retirees.” But both federal and state laws already legally oblige investment managers to maximize risk-adjusted returns. The paradox is that by narrowing the range of potential investment options, while also effectively barring the state from using some of the world’s biggest investment firms, the New Hampshire law might well reduce returns, not increase them. But for the people writing such legislation, that’s perhaps a small price to pay to teach woke capital a lesson.
Support for this project was provided by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.
James Surowiecki is a contributing writer for The Atlantic and the author of The Wisdom of Crowds. He also blogs at Medium.
Huh
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Two tiered society
There are countless non wealthy, non elite with drug problems who go about their daily lives and are successful and don't catch heat about it, for better or for worse. Rich or poor, your drug issues become a problem when they start negatively affecting others around you via crime, work performance, etc... Does this happen quicker if you have limited resources to acquire drugs? Sure, but that doesn't change my point.
Do I want my CEO or my employers strung out even if they are crushing it? Not especially. But Ive known functional addicts in all levels of socioeconomic society.
I know its your constant axe to grind but not EVERYTHING the affluent do or "get away with" is a reason to instinctively call out some divide.
I saw this the other day in regards to public investment. Political interference hurting investment returns.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/republicans-woke-capital-esg-investment/677294/
The War on ‘Woke Capital’ Is Backfiring
Republicans want to outlaw state investment in funds they see as tainted by progressive ideology. They’ll probably just get lower returns.
Yea, I think ESG in a broad sense can be pretty stupid and self serving nonsense with little value, but the only way to move away/past it is letting money talk and seeing those investments fail or provide meager returns. Mandating in either form is bad and the antithesis of true American business. I totally understand people freaking out about ESG being government mandated or forced, tacitly or otherwise...but the exact opposite is just as bad.
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There are countless non wealthy, non elite with drug problems who go about their daily lives and are successful and don't catch heat about it, for better or for worse. Rich or poor, your drug issues become a problem when they start negatively affecting others around you via crime, work performance, etc... Does this happen quicker if you have limited resources to acquire drugs? Sure, but that doesn't change my point.
Do I want my CEO or my employers strung out even if they are crushing it? Not especially. But Ive known functional addicts in all levels of socioeconomic society.
I know its your constant axe to grind but not EVERYTHING the affluent do or "get away with" is a reason to instinctively call out some divide.
Illicit drug use matters or it doesn't. Thus far, with some small regional exceptions (though they seem to be growing), our society has decided illicit drug use is bad. We punish should users.
Herman stated he didn't care if a person was engaged in illicit drug use as long as they were running a profitable company.
That's a pretty blatant "two tiered society" viewpoint.
There is a divide between the ultra wealthy and the rest of society. I don't think, based on all the available evidence, that should be a controversial point.
My own personal view is that that divide is immoral and harms society.
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Don't want to continue dragging down the investing thread with rocky's vehicle opinions, but to close out a couple things...
Does not compute
Haha. '98 Wrangler. 286k miles or so. The inline 6 is/was a bombproof engine. Paired with a manual transmission it almost never needs time in the shop. Most repairs I can do in my own garage with a socket set.
I appreciate all that. But Toyota is actually selling fewer and fewer non-hybrid ICE vehicles. For example, starting with the 2025 model year, you won't be able to buy a new-model Camry that isn't a hybrid.
That's great and all. But again, the fact that a hybrid is more complicated that an ICE, and an EV is less complicated than an ICE, makes hybrids a non-starter in my opinion.
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Don't want to continue dragging down the investing thread with rocky's vehicle opinions, but to close out a couple things...
Haha. '98 Wrangler. 286k miles or so. The inline 6 is/was a bombproof engine. Paired with a manual transmission it almost never needs time in the shop. Most repairs I can do in my own garage with a socket set.
That's great and all. But again, the fact that a hybrid is more complicated that an ICE, and an EV is less complicated than an ICE, makes hybrids a non-starter in my opinion.
I don't understand why being "more complicated" would be a problem. The car I drive today is way more complicated than the one I drove thirty years ago, but it is a ton more reliable.
And then there is this.
https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/electric-vehicles-are-less-reliable-than-conventional-cars-a1047214174
This year’s survey data show that hybrids continue to be among the most reliable vehicle type: Hybrids have 26 percent fewer problems than conventional models, even though they have both a conventional powertrain and an electric motor and therefore more potential problem spots than conventional cars.
“It might not seem that long ago, but Toyota launched the Prius hybrid about 25 years ago,” Elek says. “Automakers have been making hybrids long enough that they’ve gotten really good at it. Plus, many hybrids are also made by manufacturers that tend to produce reliable vehicles overall, such as Toyota, Hyundai, and Kia.”
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That's great and all. But again, the fact that a hybrid is more complicated that an ICE, and an EV is less complicated than an ICE, makes hybrids a non-starter in my opinion.
I did as much research as I could possibly do before buying my cars, and I saw no evidence that hybrids were more problematic than non-hybrids. As Sultan said, Consumer Reports actually has given top grades to many hybrids, with hybrid versions being rated much higher in some cases than their ICE twins.
We had a 2007 Prius that never had a single problem - until we got t-boned and it was totaled (side-curtain airbag might have saved my wife's life). We've had our 2016 Sonata Hybrid for 7+ problem-free years.
I'm not trying to talk you into anything, rocky, just stating some facts.
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I don't understand why being "more complicated" would be a problem. The car I drive today is way more complicated than the one I drove thirty years ago, but it is a ton more reliable.
Consumer Reports actually has given top grades to many hybrids, with hybrid versions being rated much higher in some cases than their ICE twins
Gosh I didn't expect this conversation to continue.
I started my career in the automotive controls industry. Primary worked for Ford and Honda writing software for their engine / transmission / 4wd controllers. ICE vehicles haven't really advanced for 30 years. I know, that's damning. But, many have mastered it, especially Toyota and Honda in "not changing too much" but still being able to manufacture (manufacturing is key quality element here) reliable vehicles.
So...Hybrids...are about 30-50% more complex than an ICE. Mechanical linkages, electrical, what have you (for sultan, that's where service problems start). It's great that the Prius has been doing it for so long, and pretty reliable. Kudos to Toyota for that, but no doubt hybrids are more complex, and thus, more failure prone as they get older.
So then we get to EVs. Honestly the leader Tesla has been crap for reliability. But most of their drivers don't put that many miles on per day. You've also seen big problems with the Lightning, and I know an E-tron owner that just had her car totaled because it got hit by a pickup truck tire (tire came flying off the truck). I have no doubt that that as EVs become more mainstream they will be be more reliable (but they're not there yet). The value just isn't there yet.
So, that brings me back to ICE's. Old technology. If you buy smartly, the car will last you for 30+ years.
(as to Sultan's "today is way more complicated than the one I drove thirty years ago", that's infotainment, as they say in the industry. And well, if you're counting on lane change warnings as a sign of reliability, I can't help you)
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When I heard Apple was coming out with a $3,500 virtual reality headset that would look crazy-huge on anyone's face, my initial reaction was: "Who's gonna buy that?"
Turns out, 180K units were sold even before the Vision Pro's official launch - that's $630M before the product even hit stores, online retailers and the official Apple website.
From the NYT DealBook newsletter ...
The NYT’s Kevin Roose says: “I still have no idea whom or what this thing is supposed to be for. At $3,500, it’s not a device for the masses, or even the mass affluent. It’s a big, honking statement piece — a status symbol for your face.”
The WSJ's Joanna Stern says to look past the deficiencies of this first-generation product. “It’s the best mixed-reality headset I’ve ever tried, way more advanced than its only real competition, the far cheaper Meta Quest Pro and Quest 3. These companies know these aren’t really the devices we want. They’re all working toward building virtual experiences into something that looks more like a pair of regular eyeglasses.”
Casey Neistat, a digital influencer, was blown away. “In summary, buy Apple stock cause this is without a doubt a new product category that they will see through.”
I've lost track of how many times over AAPL stock has appreciated since our own Douchey told his fellow Scoopers to sell it ... but it's a ton.
Well, that's because some Apple product users have a cult like devotion.
The product is DOA imo. I could go into the reasons I believe this if you'd like.
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Well, that's because some Apple product users have a cult like devotion.
The product is DOA imo. I could go into the reasons I believe this if you'd like.
Man I thought the Airpods were DOA. I was wrong and I don't guess about apple products anymore.
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Well, that's because some Apple product users have a cult like devotion.
The product is DOA imo. I could go into the reasons I believe this if you'd like.
I think the money quote is "These companies know these aren’t really the devices we want. They’re all working toward building virtual experiences into something that looks more like a pair of regular eyeglasses.”
It is a step in the process.
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I think the money quote is "These companies know these aren’t really the devices we want. They’re all working toward building virtual experiences into something that looks more like a pair of regular eyeglasses.”
It is a step in the process.
And I don't disagree. This is like their VR 0.05 product.
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Well, that's because some Apple product users have a cult like devotion.
The product is DOA imo. I could go into the reasons I believe this if you'd like.
We agree on all of that.
I think the money quote is "These companies know these aren’t really the devices we want. They’re all working toward building virtual experiences into something that looks more like a pair of regular eyeglasses.”
It is a step in the process.
And we agree on all of that.
In a matter of years, there will be VR and AR products that look like regular eyeglasses and that will be as affordable as cellphones are today. Apple is getting a jump on the innovation. It will be interesting to see where it goes and how quickly it gets there.
But for now, I'm pretty damn surprised that apparently hundreds of thousands of these (or more) will be sold.
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We agree on all of that.
And we agree on all of that.
In a matter of years, there will be VR and AR products that look like regular eyeglasses and that will be as affordable as cellphones are today. Apple is getting a jump on the innovation. It will be interesting to see where it goes and how quickly it gets there.
But for now, I'm pretty damn surprised that apparently hundreds of thousands of these (or more) will be sold.
Honestly, I think they're actually pretty far behind on the innovation. Their strong point right now is their visual panel inside the headset.
I think what they've made is just gimmicky enough to have sold what it has so they can recoup SOME of their initial investment.
The problem when something like this gets released is that it comes with a ton of hype and if doesn't meet that hype or have a good use case, people will be reluctant to purchase the next version.
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Honestly, I think they're actually pretty far behind on the innovation. Their strong point right now is their visual panel inside the headset.
I think what they've made is just gimmicky enough to have sold what it has so they can recoup SOME of their initial investment.
The problem when something like this gets released is that it comes with a ton of hype and if doesn't meet that hype or have a good use case, people will be reluctant to purchase the next version.
I read this post on my Google Glass.
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Disney stock up big after hours following a better-than-expected earnings report and strong guidance.
From Seeking Alpha:
Walt Disney stock (NYSE:DIS) gained 8% in early after-hours action after posting earnings that landed on the high side of profit expectations and offered upbeat guidance for 20% growth in full-year profitability.
For the period ended Dec. 31, Disney (DIS) logged relatively flat revenues of $23.5B (vs. $23.77B expected).
But amid ongoing cost-cut success, operating income rose by 27% to $3.88B. And excluding certain items, diluted earnings per share jumped 23% to $1.22, vs. consensus for $1.04.
The company pointed to realizing more than $500M in selling, general and administrative and other operating expense savings "across the enterprise" for the quarter.
Meanwhile, Disney+ core subscribers shrank by 1.3M quarter-over-quarter -- an unsurprising result given price hikes on the service.
Disney+ ended the quarter with 46.1M domestic subscribers and 65.2M international; with 38.3M more from Disney+Hotstar, total subs landed at 149.6M vs. expectations for 151.2M.
“Our strong performance this past quarter demonstrates we have turned the corner and entered a new era for our company, focused on fortifying ESPN for the future, building streaming into a profitable growth business, reinvigorating our film studios, and turbocharging growth in our parks and experiences," CEO Bob Iger said in the company's release.
Disney also said it would take a $1.5B stake in Epic Games to work with the company on new experiences: a "games and entertainment universe connected to Fortnite." Epic Games is 40% owned by Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY).
Hulu subscribers topped expectations by landing at 49.7M (45.1M on subscription video on demand, and another 4.6M on Hulu + Live TV), vs. expectations for 49.2M.
On average revenue per subscriber, Disney+ core gained 2% to $6.84. Hotstar ARPU jumped 83% to $1.28. Hulu's SVOD ARPU ticked up 1% to $12.29, while its live TV offering rose 4% to $93.61.
Revenues by segment: Entertainment, $9.98B (down 7%); Sports, $4.84B (up 4%); Experiences, $9.13B (up 7%).
Operating income by segment: Entertainment, $874M (up 153%); Sports, -$103M (vs. prior-year -$164M); Experiences, $3.11B (up 8%).
On Sept. 8, DIS closed at $81.31. Later that evening, our own Douchey said for the bazillionth time that the company was doomed ... and he dared Scoopers to buy the stock.
As I write this, it's at $106.50 after hours. So that's a 31% gain in 5 months.
Once again, Douchey gives great "opposite advice."
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Iger righting the SS Disney. Cranking up the streaming prices even at the cost of subscribers was necessary given the drag.
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Once again, Douchey gives great "opposite advice."
The George Costanza of Scoop.
(https://media.tenor.com/_7QJB1I7IuwAAAAM/fantasy-football.gif)
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Back off. We will all be driving EVs next year, just like he said.
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Disney stock up big after hours following a better-than-expected earnings report and strong guidance.
From Seeking Alpha:
Walt Disney stock (NYSE:DIS) gained 8% in early after-hours action after posting earnings that landed on the high side of profit expectations and offered upbeat guidance for 20% growth in full-year profitability.
For the period ended Dec. 31, Disney (DIS) logged relatively flat revenues of $23.5B (vs. $23.77B expected).
But amid ongoing cost-cut success, operating income rose by 27% to $3.88B. And excluding certain items, diluted earnings per share jumped 23% to $1.22, vs. consensus for $1.04.
The company pointed to realizing more than $500M in selling, general and administrative and other operating expense savings "across the enterprise" for the quarter.
Meanwhile, Disney+ core subscribers shrank by 1.3M quarter-over-quarter -- an unsurprising result given price hikes on the service.
Disney+ ended the quarter with 46.1M domestic subscribers and 65.2M international; with 38.3M more from Disney+Hotstar, total subs landed at 149.6M vs. expectations for 151.2M.
“Our strong performance this past quarter demonstrates we have turned the corner and entered a new era for our company, focused on fortifying ESPN for the future, building streaming into a profitable growth business, reinvigorating our film studios, and turbocharging growth in our parks and experiences," CEO Bob Iger said in the company's release.
Disney also said it would take a $1.5B stake in Epic Games to work with the company on new experiences: a "games and entertainment universe connected to Fortnite." Epic Games is 40% owned by Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY).
Hulu subscribers topped expectations by landing at 49.7M (45.1M on subscription video on demand, and another 4.6M on Hulu + Live TV), vs. expectations for 49.2M.
On average revenue per subscriber, Disney+ core gained 2% to $6.84. Hotstar ARPU jumped 83% to $1.28. Hulu's SVOD ARPU ticked up 1% to $12.29, while its live TV offering rose 4% to $93.61.
Revenues by segment: Entertainment, $9.98B (down 7%); Sports, $4.84B (up 4%); Experiences, $9.13B (up 7%).
Operating income by segment: Entertainment, $874M (up 153%); Sports, -$103M (vs. prior-year -$164M); Experiences, $3.11B (up 8%).
On Sept. 8, DIS closed at $81.31. Later that evening, our own Douchey said for the bazillionth time that the company was doomed ... and he dared Scoopers to buy the stock.
As I write this, it's at $106.50 after hours. So that's a 31% gain in 5 months.
Once again, Douchey gives great "opposite advice."
I don’t know how long Heisey has been bearish on Disney, but even with the 31% gain in the last 5 months it’s still down 45% in the last 3 years. Meanwhile the S and P is up 28% for the same period. IOW it’s been a major dog. If one picks the absolute bottom on major dogs one can still make money but there are better ways to invest imo.
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Back off. We will all be driving EVs next year, just like he said.
Paid for in Bitcoin
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I don’t know how long Heisey has been bearish on Disney, but even with the 31% gain in the last 5 months it’s still down 45% in the last 3 years. Meanwhile the S and P is up 28% for the same period. IOW it’s been a major dog. If one picks the absolute bottom on major dogs one can still make money but there are better ways to invest imo.
Yes, but DIS was crushing the S&P500 from 2010-2020...then Bob 2 took over. All indications are that Bob 1 is pulling the right levers. IMO, he is one CEO worth his pay and then some.
The key will be for DIS not to unnatural carnal knowledge up the transition again once Bob 1 re-retires.
EDIT: Maybe Bob 2 got unlucky with the timing of COVID first denting park/cruise revs and then entering the streaming wars at the costliest time. But then again maybe it was more than just bad luck.
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I don’t know how long Heisey has been bearish on Disney, but even with the 31% gain in the last 5 months it’s still down 45% in the last 3 years. Meanwhile the S and P is up 28% for the same period. IOW it’s been a major dog. If one picks the absolute bottom on major dogs one can still make money but there are better ways to invest imo.
I merely chose the date that Douchey did.
Also this:
Yes, but DIS was crushing the S&P500 from 2010-2020...then Bob 2 took over. All indications are that Bob 1 is pulling the right levers. IMO, he is one CEO worth his pay and then some.
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UPDATE: In actual trading, DIS is up 10% this morning. So that's about a 35% gain since Doucheynomics were presented.
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DIS is doomed.
I'd like to find out what else Douchey thinks is doomed.
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In a note to clients on Friday, Deutsche Bank chief equity strategist Binky Chadha highlighted that 83% of US companies are beating earnings estimates. Per Chadha's research, this is the highest mark in two years and "well above the upper end of its pre-pandemic range."
It's also significantly higher than the beat rates in other countries, which could be an indicator of why US stocks are outperforming other markets.
"Such elevated beats have historically been seen only in the early stages of recovery from major cyclical downturns," Chadha wrote.
"Several strategists recently noted a similar trend to Yahoo Finance when explaining how the S&P 500 could rise to new highs later this year without outsized contributions from a few large tech stocks that have been driving the market action as of late.
"As investors stop worrying so much about exactly when the Fed will start to cut rates, I think we'll see a lot of these companies outside of the Magnificent Seven have pretty strong earnings growth, and that will cause them to do pretty well in turn," Goldman Sachs equity strategist Ben Snider told Yahoo Finance.
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(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.emailimagecdnuyi.com%2F5nr8p7zs2a%2Fen_us%2Fimages%2F65c92826c9336-1707681830.8241.png&t=1707773495&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1cee-8206d5010100&sig=hMOfGYrMdE_8TBe_3keqKw--~D)
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I'm trying to remember if I've ever seen as much build-up to a single company's earnings report as has been the case re this one for NVDA's, which reports after today's close.
The drumbeat started a few weeks ago and has gotten louder and louder. The hype is incessant. And I get it ... NVDA has been the hottest stock in the world, and AI has been the hottest subject in the world, and now here we come to this earnings report.
The swing for NVDA stock price is expected to be double-digits either way, depending on what the experts think about the report/guidance. And that is expected to affect the overall market, perhaps significantly (even if only for the short-term).
I don't remember any over-the-top lead-up like this for AAPL or MSFT or AMZN or TSLA or any other stock, though maybe my memory is cloudy.
A cautionary tale might have come yesterday after hours, when PANW's guidance disappointed. As I write this, it's down 26% this morning. Yikes!
NVDA shares already have pulled back the last several sessions headed into its report. And there will be fireworks, one way or another, after close today and into tomorrow's open. Fun!
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Exceeded estimates and guided higher. Bad day tomorrow averted.
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You beat me to it, TS. Here are the particulars, from Seeking Alpha:
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares jumped 6.4% in extended-hours trading on Wednesday after the semiconductor giant reported quarterly results and guidance that topped Wall Street's expectations.
Looking to the first-quarter of fiscal 2025, Nvidia expects to generate $24B in revenue, plus or minus 2%. Analysts were forecasting $21.9B in revenue for the Jensen Huang-led company.
Adjusted gross margin is forecast to be around 77%, plus or minus 50 basis points, while adjusted operating expenses are expected to be around $2.5B.
“Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point,” Huang said in a statement. “Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations.”
For the fourth-quarter, Nvidia (NVDA) earned an adjusted $5.16 per share on $22.1B in revenue, as gaming revenue surged 56% year-over-year to come in at $2.9B, above the $2.72B estimate. Data center revenue flew past expectations, coming in at $18.4B, compared to estimates of $17.21B. Automotive revenue for the period clocked in at $281M, while professional visualization revenue rose 105% year-over-year to $463M. Total revenue for the period rose 265.3% year-over-year.
Adjusted gross margin came in at 76.7%, above the 75.4% estimate.
The company said data center sales to China declined "significantly" during the period amid the Biden Administration's export curb controls.
Analysts expected the Santa Clara, California-based company to post earnings of $4.63 per share on revenues of $20.5B for the quarter.
NVDA always seemed outrageously expensive so I never bought it, darn it.
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What do people think about investing in a high yield municipal bond ? Spoke with my investor today and he said you can get 7-8% right now. Unless I’m missing something what is the downside?
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What do people think about investing in a high yield municipal bond ? Spoke with my investor today and he said you can get 7-8% right now. Unless I’m missing something what is the downside?
My guess is he is quoting you the tax equivalent rate since they are tax free, so be careful about what underlying tax assumptions he is using. (i.e., you are in a lower income bracket than he is basing that figure on.)
(A tax equivalent rate is what someone would need to make on a taxable instrument to make up for the tax free return of a muni.)
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What do people think about investing in a high yield municipal bond ? Spoke with my investor today and he said you can get 7-8% right now. Unless I’m missing something what is the downside?
High yield typically indicates a higher rate of risk, i.e., default. Default risk might still be minimal, but that is the downside.
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My guess is he is quoting you the tax equivalent rate since they are tax free
+1. Would be surprised with a rate much over 4.5% (and that's assuming a 30ish year bond)
But, muni bonds are fairly low risk. Especially since rates probably aren't going to go up much in the near future, the downward pressure on sale price should not be a major concern.
That said, they're currently not my cup of tea. But if the federal tax free status and (real) rate appeal to you...maybe.
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hope no one here tried to short nvda...up over 9% $61.00+/share after hours
i've got multiple positions starting at $130 up to $375
also loaded up up AMD, tsm, intc, meta, msft, ibm, over the past 8 mos.
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Nice work, Rocket!!!
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hope no one here tried to short nvda...up over 9% $61.00+/share after hours
i've got multiple positions starting at $130 up to $375
also loaded up up AMD, tsm, intc, meta, msft, ibm, over the past 8 mos.
Nicely done. Serious question: What have your biggest losers been?
I've got a couple utilities that hit the skids and a couple struggling Canadian banks now, and back in late-2021 I was in late on a few of the "disruptors" that were in fashion at the time and ended up selling them pretty quickly at slight losses.
Folks love to talk about all their brilliant buys and prescient sells, but we all have had some clunkers.
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Folks love to talk about all their brilliant buys and prescient sells, but we all have had some clunkers.
Hah. Agreed. And I don't think there's been much, if any, talk of shorting here. Maybe some do, I'd rather gamble on potential winners, long term. Most are looking to profit from long positions, And sometimes looking for other opinions on their crazy ideas. 🙂
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Nicely done. Serious question: What have your biggest losers been?
I've got a couple utilities that hit the skids and a couple struggling Canadian banks now, and back in late-2021 I was in late on a few of the "disruptors" that were in fashion at the time and ended up selling them pretty quickly at slight losses.
Folks love to talk about all their brilliant buys and prescient sells, but we all have had some clunkers.
i have numerous positions in generac(gnrc) that is slowly coming back. it's going to need a few quarters of good stuff to rebound back to mid $200's which was my original basis. i have since bought some more in the low $100's
altria(MO) except i have been holding only due to the decent dividend
NIO-thought they would become more of a competitor to tesla. i am holding however just in case sold my tesla in mid $200's at a nice profit. want to let the whole EV thing shake out
dollar general(DG) although my imtial buy in was $70, i have since added to that and the additions are presently under water. although i am in the black overall, the additions are a little pink
boeing(BA) f'ing max 737 is killing me. i am right around $200 basis and holding but i have quite a few shares.
devon energy(DVN) a little bit down, but love the dividend
3m-a little bit down, but like their position going forward
woodside energy(WDS) although i received that as part of a merger with BHP which is doing wonderfully, it is down a little bit. but it also has a decent dividend over 10%
FMC corp has a buy rating but is sluggish
VF corp has a buy rating but has been dragging hind titty as well
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Hah. Agreed. And I don't think there's been much, if any, talk of shorting here. Maybe some do, I'd rather gamble on potential winners, long term. Most are looking to profit from long positions, And sometimes looking for other opinions on their crazy ideas. 🙂
agree!! it's always been hard for me to short anything. i hate to root for losers to lose except anyone playing MU
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oh, i've had a couple of real bombers in the past-remember syntax-brillion? and another gem called medi-hut
syntax brillion was supposed to be the cats-arse in plasma screens et.al.
medihut was a penny stock (retractable needle) i thought i was going to retire at 30 on. was the big schmidt during the aids crisis in late 80's-90's. billybob was supposed to sign the "needle stick" mandate and the retractable needle hub thing was "gold" in them thar hills right? if i ever run into the fly by night broker who kept pumping that thing to me, he's gonna need some of those medihut needles
both are contributing to why i am still working-just kidding, but they were killers!
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Hah. Agreed. And I don't think there's been much, if any, talk of shorting here. Maybe some do, I'd rather gamble on potential winners, long term. Most are looking to profit from long positions, And sometimes looking for other opinions on their crazy ideas. 🙂
I've never shorted a stock. Like Vegas, it seems like the house odds are against you. The LT bias of the market is upwards, you have to pay the equity owner an ongoing fee for the privilege to do so, and even if you make a perfect call you are limited to a 100% upside.
I've had pretty good success with long puts (63% win rate) as well as short (cash covered) puts (85% win rate), though the latter is definitley a different investment thesis.
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i have numerous positions in generac(gnrc) that is slowly coming back. it's going to need a few quarters of good stuff to rebound back to mid $200's which was my original basis. i have since bought some more in the low $100's
altria(MO) except i have been holding only due to the decent dividend
NIO-thought they would become more of a competitor to tesla. i am holding however just in case sold my tesla in mid $200's at a nice profit. want to let the whole EV thing shake out
dollar general(DG) although my imtial buy in was $70, i have since added to that and the additions are presently under water. although i am in the black overall, the additions are a little pink
boeing(BA) f'ing max 737 is killing me. i am right around $200 basis and holding but i have quite a few shares.
devon energy(DVN) a little bit down, but love the dividend
3m-a little bit down, but like their position going forward
woodside energy(WDS) although i received that as part of a merger with BHP which is doing wonderfully, it is down a little bit. but it also has a decent dividend over 10%
FMC corp has a buy rating but is sluggish
VF corp has a buy rating but has been dragging hind titty as well
Thanks for listing these. As I've said, we've all had plenty of clunkers. Back in the dot-com-boom days I first started buying individual stocks and I had a bunch of wonderful names - WCOM, LU, PALM, NT ... Ugh! And, as I mentioned, I've still got a few that are underwater.
Thankfully, if one is a long-term investor who works hard to choose high-quality companies, one can overcome a few clunkers. Holdings like MSFT, AAPL and MA - not to mention all my "boring" dividend-growing stocks - have risen so well over the years that having a handful of losers has barely registered.
Hah. Agreed. And I don't think there's been much, if any, talk of shorting here. Maybe some do, I'd rather gamble on potential winners, long term. Most are looking to profit from long positions, And sometimes looking for other opinions on their crazy ideas. 🙂
I've never shorted a stock, and I'm pretty sure I never will. Feels too much like gambling.
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I've never shorted a stock. Like Vegas, it seems like the house odds are against you. The LT bias of the market is upwards, you have to pay the equity owner an ongoing fee for the privilege to do so, and even if you make a perfect call you are limited to a 100% upside.
I've had pretty good success with long puts (63% win rate) as well as short (cash covered) puts (85% win rate), though the latter is definitley a different investment thesis.
Many people say, usually correct, that market timing is a losing venture. And I often agree on a long position, longer term basis. I think the difference is shorting. Shorting can be great and effective but it needs a fairly defined time frame. Puts are usually the better play for any retail investor cause you don't need to worry about borrowing costs, margin, etc...
I don't think shorting is gambling anymore than going long is. The "your downside is unlimited" is kind of an overblown idea cause how many non-penny/non-micro cap stocks really go 50/60/100+% up on a regular basis, about as many truly go to zero.
If there is a true catalyst (financial, market factors, rulings, etc...) its a potentially great move cause stocks usually take the stairs up, but an elevator down. But I'm always wary about holding a short position more than a quarter cause it doesn't take much in terms of numbers reporting, positive guidance, or some fluff around earnings to wipe out downside gains quickly, provided we're not in a bear market.
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NVDA up 15%. Congrats to all holding, especially those who bought when it got under $150 just last year. Price was collapsing back then, and it's never easy to buy a potential "falling knife." So good on those who did!
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NVDA up 15%. Congrats to all holding, especially those who bought when it got under $150 just last year. Price was collapsing back then, and it's never easy to buy a potential "falling knife." So good on those who did!
People chasing news. I dunno, a lot of this AI stuff feels sort of dot com bubbly.
But I am terrible at picking winners, so I'm not a good person to ask (no one did).
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I dunno, a lot of this AI stuff feels sort of dot com bubbly.
Totally agree. My main AI-related investments are with companies I wanted to own before AI became the only thing that matters. Like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, LMT, etc.
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could very well be dot commy...that's why i'll be watching closely, looking to drop some "stop losses" on a few
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Bubbly may be the right word for this market. Today's intra-day high of 5111.06 represents a year to date gain of 7.15%. Less than two months into the year and the gains keep rolling in at a fast pace. Bubbly, frothy, whatever you call it ......
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Bubbly may be the right word for this market. Today's intra-day high of 5111.06 represents a year to date gain of 7.15%. Less than two months into the year and the gains keep rolling in at a fast pace. Bubbly, frothy, whatever you call it ......
rabid... sure to bite someone. 8-)
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Warren Buffett released his annual letter to investors yesterday. As expected, it included a tribute to his longtime business partner, Charlie Munger, who recently died.
It also include a few interesting passages about the market.
"For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young."
"Today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school."
"Never risk permanent loss of capital. Thanks to the American tailwind and the power of compound interest, the arena in which we operate has been – and will be – rewarding if you make a couple of good decisions during a lifetime and avoid serious mistakes."
I know that some say the investing world has passed the 93-year-old Buffett by. And I certainly am no expert on either Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, a stock I wish I owned but I don't.
But I am able to look at a YChart just like anybody else, and I see that BRK.B has beaten SPY over the last 3 months, 6 months, year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years ... and it has done so with far less volatility.
So either Buffett is still doing something right, or the people he chose to make Berkshire's decisions are doing something right (which, by extension, means Buffett did something right in choosing the right people).
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"Never risk permanent loss of capital. Thanks to the American tailwind and the power of compound interest, the arena in which we operate has been – and will be – rewarding if you make a couple of good decisions during a lifetime and avoid serious mistakes."
I wish he had unnatural carnal knowledgeing told me this sooner. That's advice I should have/could have used.
I know that some say the investing world has passed the 93-year-old Buffett by. And I certainly am no expert on either Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, a stock I wish I owned but I don't.
But I am able to look at a YChart just like anybody else, and I see that BRK.B has beaten SPY over the last 3 months, 6 months, year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years ... and it has done so with far less volatility.
Shhhhhh, don't tell Douchey.
I bought BRK.B in 2005. After pretty much ignoring it since, I actually added to it last year for the first time since then. I was a little surprised to see that today, after rising 17% YTD, it's grown into my largest individual holding.
It's a get rich slow play for sure. There are certainly faster ways if you pick right; I have AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and others, but I wasn't smart enough to catch them early.
The other one I have that is similar to BRKB from a performance standpoint for me is KKR. Bought that one in 2014, ignored it other than adding a small amount in 2022, and am now sitting on a CAGR of 16.9%
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Kinda think Heisey’s been barred from the Superbar
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I bought BRK.B in 2005. After pretty much ignoring it since, I actually added to it last year for the first time since then. I was a little surprised to see that today, after rising 17% YTD, it's grown into my largest individual holding.
It's a get rich slow play for sure. There are certainly faster ways if you pick right; I have AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and others, but I wasn't smart enough to catch them early.
The other one I have that is similar to BRKB from a performance standpoint for me is KKR. Bought that one in 2014, ignored it other than adding a small amount in 2022, and am now sitting on a CAGR of 16.9%
Nicely done with BRK.B. I considered it several times and always talked myself out of it because it was "too expensive." I probably should just start buying a couple/few shares a month and let it do what it's done for you.
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Kinda think Heisey’s been barred from the Superbar
can you get a partial ban hammer?
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Nicely done with BRK.B. I considered it several times and always talked myself out of it because it was "too expensive." I probably should just start buying a couple/few shares a month and let it do what it's done for you.
I made the trek to Omaha once for the shareholder meeting with a buddy of mine. Should have bought BRK.B with the travel money instead of going. Still, going to a talkshow hosted by Buffett and Munger was a wonderful time.
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Harvard considering selling $1.65 Billion of debt.
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Doomed
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Hards, you may be right. This market may be rabid, but the dogs are feasting today.
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Hards, you may be right. This market may be rabid, but the dogs are feasting today.
And it may be for some more time, but eventually someone will lose.
Number can't always go up.
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And it may be for some more time, but eventually someone will lose.
Number can't always go up.
The best predictor of new market all time highs is recent market all time highs.
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And it may be for some more time, but eventually someone will lose.
Number can't always go up.
Not to say that the market is NOT overheated, but here is a counterpoint:
Chart of the Week: The S&P 500's last three years look completely average
"To some extent, all-time highs will always look exuberant. These milestones are also the sweetest honey for market bears who can easily imagine falling to familiar territory just recently left behind.
But our Chart of the Week points to one metric that recasts this exuberance as almost mediocre.
A look at the S&P 500’s current rolling three-year average return shows the market’s rise over this period has been almost exactly average.
Currently, this return stands at around 30%; a year ago, it was 34%. The impact of the market’s crash in March 2020 inflated this measure to nearly 60% in March 2023.
As DataTrek's Nicholas Colas wrote this week, the average three-year price return since 1974 is 29% (8.9% per year, compounded). In that context, nothing about the current moment is remarkable.
Colas’s research into this metric found that at the 100% mark for three-year gains, “history says investors should be extremely wary.” (It's easy to remember too: "A double is a bubble," Colas points out.)
“If all you knew about the index was its 3-year return as of today, you would perhaps assume the last 36 months had been pretty routine,” Colas wrote. “Nothing in today’s analysis says we’re close to a bubble in US large caps.”
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Not to say that the market is NOT overheated, but here is a counterpoint:
Chart of the Week: The S&P 500's last three years look completely average
"To some extent, all-time highs will always look exuberant. These milestones are also the sweetest honey for market bears who can easily imagine falling to familiar territory just recently left behind.
But our Chart of the Week points to one metric that recasts this exuberance as almost mediocre.
A look at the S&P 500’s current rolling three-year average return shows the market’s rise over this period has been almost exactly average.
Currently, this return stands at around 30%; a year ago, it was 34%. The impact of the market’s crash in March 2020 inflated this measure to nearly 60% in March 2023.
As DataTrek's Nicholas Colas wrote this week, the average three-year price return since 1974 is 29% (8.9% per year, compounded). In that context, nothing about the current moment is remarkable.
Colas’s research into this metric found that at the 100% mark for three-year gains, “history says investors should be extremely wary.” (It's easy to remember too: "A double is a bubble," Colas points out.)
“If all you knew about the index was its 3-year return as of today, you would perhaps assume the last 36 months had been pretty routine,” Colas wrote. “Nothing in today’s analysis says we’re close to a bubble in US large caps.”
I just saw that, TS, and was going to post it. It's the third or fourth article I've read showing that, by some metrics, the market's not all that overheated.
Take a stock like NVDA, which has been on a rocket ship to another galaxy for more than a year now. Despite its explosive price appreciation, its 32-ish forward PE ratio is lower than several stocks I own, including COST and MA, and its PEG ratio is a very attractive 0.9.
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I just saw that, TS, and was going to post it. It's the third or fourth article I've read showing that, by some metrics, the market's not all that overheated.
Take a stock like NVDA, which has been on a rocket ship to another galaxy for more than a year now. Despite its explosive price appreciation, its 32-ish forward PE ratio is lower than several stocks I own, including COST and MA, and its PEG ratio is a very attractive 0.9.
But when lending rates get cut things are going to overheat quickly, won't they?
Or do you guys think a lot of that stuff is priced in?
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But when lending rates get cut things are going to overheat quickly, won't they?
Or do you guys think a lot of that stuff is priced in?
The market is usually forward looking. There's a reason that small cap growth rebounded even though we're in a high rate environment.
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But when lending rates get cut things are going to overheat quickly, won't they?
Or do you guys think a lot of that stuff is priced in?
There have been so many times I've thought something has been "priced in," good or bad, only to get proven wrong when that thing actually happened.
For certain sectors, especially - like utilities and REITs - lower rates definitely will be a stimulus. Absolutely. Positively. (I think.)
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For certain sectors, especially - like utilities and REITs - lower rates definitely will be a stimulus. Absolutely. Positively. (I think.)
Yup. And in anything rate sensitive--small caps, BDCs, bonds, bond-like equivalents like preferred stocks, etc. (Probably.)
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Well, here's an interesting take on short-sellers:
Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) blasted short sellers in a CNBC interview.
He said that the short sellers are “going short on a truly great American company -- not just ours -- but they just love pulling down great American companies so that they can pay for their coke.”
Karp added that he felt happy about the company’s growth. The stock is up 43.86% year-to-date.
“And the best thing that could happen to [short sellers] is we will lead their coke dealers to their homes after they can't pay their bills,” he said.
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Well, here's an interesting take on short-sellers:
Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) blasted short sellers in a CNBC interview.
He said that the short sellers are “going short on a truly great American company -- not just ours -- but they just love pulling down great American companies so that they can pay for their coke.”
Karp added that he felt happy about the company’s growth. The stock is up 43.86% year-to-date.
“And the best thing that could happen to [short sellers] is we will lead their coke dealers to their homes after they can't pay their bills,” he said.
This rules.
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Sheesh
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/14/investing/tesla-growth-stock-elon-musk/index.html
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anyone holding some DWAC.O before today's trading?
made "some people" very very rich ;)
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Tesla slumps 7% after Q1 deliveries miss already-reduced expectations
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4086263-tesla-slumps-7-after-q1-deliveries-miss-already-reduced-expectations
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) announced on Tuesday that it delivered 386,810 vehicles in Q1 and produced 433,371 vehicles. The deliveries tally missed the consensus estimate that had already been slashed significantly over the last three weeks. Model 3/Y production was 412,376 units vs. 439,194 consensus. By comparison, Tesla delivered a total of 484,507 vehicles in Q4 and delivered 422,875 a year ago in Q1.
Tesla (TSLA) said the decline in volume was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at the Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin.
The electric vehicle maker announced on Monday price increases on certain models in China and the U.S. The Model Y saw a price hike of $1,000 in the U.S. to $44,990, while the price on the Model Y AWD Long Range was increased to $49,990. The development was not a surprise, as the electric vehicle maker had warned a few weeks ago that customers should order vehicles soon in order to avoid higher pricing. The threat of higher prices may have brought in some extra sales at the very end of the quarter. In China, the basic Model Y is now listed on Tesla's (TSLA) website as priced at 263,900 yuan ($36,519), up from last week's level of 258,900 yuan. The modest price hikes cut against what has been a wave of price cuts in China by local players such as BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF), Li Auto (LI), Nio (NIO), Xpeng (XPEV), and Zeekr. Automakers are defending against new entrants into the Chinese EV market, such as Xiaomi Corporation (OTCPK:XIACF).
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Certainly increased competition is a factor, but maybe it would be helpful to Tesla if its CEO wasn't a raging a-hole?
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tesla-hurt-musks-falling-reputation-171020269.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
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Certainly increased competition is a factor, but maybe it would be helpful to Tesla if its CEO wasn't a raging a-hole?
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tesla-hurt-musks-falling-reputation-171020269.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Yep, there's that.
As a TSLA shareholder, the fact that Musk is an a-hole - or even an antisemite - isn't my biggest concern. It's that he's unstable and that he wastes Tesla money on social-warrior dalliances.
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Yep, there's that.
As a TSLA shareholder, the fact that Musk is an a-hole - or even an antisemite - isn't my biggest concern. It's that he's unstable and that he wastes Tesla money on social-warrior dalliances.
Aren't those more or less the same things? You have a CEO who doesn't have the maturity to control himself and is actively harming prospects for shareholders. Call him an a-hole or call him unstable, his behavior is a huge negative for the company.
If he had a real Board rather than a collection of sycophants that are beholden to him financially, they would act in the best interests of shareholders. But alas, they are Musk's lackeys. Shareholders beware.
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Yep, there's that.
As a TSLA shareholder, the fact that Musk is an a-hole - or even an antisemite - isn't my biggest concern. It's that he's unstable and that he wastes Tesla money on social-warrior dalliances.
Go anti-woke, go broke
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Yep, there's that.
As a TSLA shareholder, the fact that Musk is an a-hole - or even an antisemite - isn't my biggest concern. It's that he's unstable and that he wastes Tesla money on social-warrior dalliances.
I mean, that's why Musk got fired from x.com (cofinity) in 2000. He makes terrible decisions.
And now he's renamed Twitter to x.com... because he's an emotional mess. His politics are a manifestation of his mental issues. I would not trust him as an executive of my company. His sole redeeming quality is that he's wealthy.
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Looks like Disney will remain woke.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/disney-defeats-activist-investor-nelson-peltz-in-proxy-fight-172400941.html
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Can some of the people more familiar with stock trading teach me a few things.
I don't want this to get in a debate/politics discussion, but am intrigued by the oddities of Truth Social going public.
I don't want to get into the weeds of the stock/company, but there are ~120M shares outstanding.
Of those, about 90M of the shares are owned by people involved in the founding (75%), all of which can't be traded for 6-months.
Looking at the trading volume, on at least 1-day, the volume was 55.6 M shares, which if I'm understanding things correctly, would be the equivalent of every share available for selling would have traded hands twice. On the lowest days, the volume is still 6M (or 20% of all possible shares).
1. Is that kind of activity normal.
2. If that type of volume is not normal, what does it mean.
I tried to do some of my own research and failed.
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Can some of the people more familiar with stock trading teach me a few things.
I don't want this to get in a debate/politics discussion, but am intrigued by the oddities of Truth Social going public.
I don't want to get into the weeds of the stock/company, but there are ~120M shares outstanding.
Of those, about 90M of the shares are owned by people involved in the founding (75%), all of which can't be traded for 6-months.
Looking at the trading volume, on at least 1-day, the volume was 55.6 M shares, which if I'm understanding things correctly, would be the equivalent of every share available for selling would have traded hands twice. On the lowest days, the volume is still 6M (or 20% of all possible shares).
1. Is that kind of activity normal.
2. If that type of volume is not normal, what does it mean.
I tried to do some of my own research and failed.
It's not "normal", but there can certainly be stocks where the trading frenzy causes multiples of the float (shares available for trading) to be traded everyday.
That's certainly the case with DJT, it's the memeiest of memes stocks at the moment. Think AMC x Gamestop right now.
Fundamentally, run; run far away. It generated all of $4.5M in sales last year. In comparison, a single Walmart store rakes in about $1B per year.
Consider the Price-to-Sales ratio of others:
S&P 500 2.8
Apple 7.7
Nvidia 36.4
DJT 1781
So yeah, if a social media platform somehow jumps revenues 100x, its value is between AAPL and NVDA. Right.
Someone is going to be left holding the bag on this one. That said, it only takes one billionaire that wants to curry favor to funnel money into this to keep it afloat.
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It's not "normal", but there can certainly be stocks where the trading frenzy causes multiples of the float (shares available for trading) to be traded everyday.
That's certainly the case with DJT, it's the memeiest of memes stocks at the moment. Think AMC x Gamestop right now.
Fundamentally, run; run far away. It generated all of $4.5M in sales last year. In comparison, a single Walmart store rakes in about $1B per year.
Consider the Price-to-Sales ratio of others:
S&P 500 2.8
Apple 7.7
Nvidia 36.4
DJT 1781
So yeah, if a social media platform somehow jumps revenues 100x, its value is between AAPL and NVDA. Right.
Someone is going to be left holding the bag on this one. That said, it only takes one billionaire that wants to curry favor to funnel money into this to keep it afloat.
Agreed on all of it, for all intents and purposes, its a penny stock. Its the kind of stuff you'd see in the dot com bubble where tech companies with a few million, hell a few hundred thousand, in revenue would go public and the price would fly all over the place.
And not just with Meme stocks, its very common for recently IPO'd stocks to flip large portions of their available float, especially if a good chunk is tied up. Combine that with the buzz around it, and there ya go.
As much as there is justifiable skepticism about anything in the DJT sphere, this doesn't raise any red flags. But this is also always the danger with stocks like this, the fervor and chaos always dies down and suddenly people are holding a stock with mediocre fundamentals that is no longer whipping around or jumping double digit percentages a day.
Personally, the exposure of the annual revenues to me was amusing cause for all the IPO buzz, the media coverage, etc... they generate revenue pretty damn close to my company which is very much a small business and wouldn't generate any interest if it went public.
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Thank you both! Learned a few things. I knew to stick clear of it, but didn't know the term "float," and had no idea of how unusual such trading is.
My trading is incredibly vanilla.
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Huh. Musk had this to say in a deposition re Twitter:
"I may have done more to financially impair the company than to help it, but I certainly I — I do not guide my posts by what is financially beneficial but what I believe is interesting or important or entertaining to the public.”
If I am holding equity (*cough* Fidelity *cough*) or even if I am holding a debt instrument and this is putting at risk the company having cash flow to service the debt, I am PISSED. The CEO in everything but name is unapologetically admitting he isn't operating the company to be financially successful, but instead is doing whatever amuses him.
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Huh. Musk had this to say in a deposition re Twitter:
"I may have done more to financially impair the company than to help it, but I certainly I — I do not guide my posts by what is financially beneficial but what I believe is interesting or important or entertaining to the public.”
If I am holding equity (*cough* Fidelity *cough*) or even if I am holding a debt instrument and this is putting at risk the company having cash flow to service the debt, I am PISSED. The CEO in everything but name is unapologetically admitting he isn't operating the company to be financially successful, but instead is doing whatever amuses him.
As I have mentioned, I still have some TSLA stock, and I am not a very happy investor because the CEO is unstable and is too worried about social issues at the expense of his company. He has managed the company's finances terribly, especially since vastly overpaying for the social-media company he didn't even want.
I still think Tesla will be a winner long-term in great part because of all the non-car-company things it's involved in. But I of course am not certain, and the stock has been horrible for 3 years now.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-blackrock-among-bls-economist-184301611.html
Non-public info leaked to Wall Street
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-blackrock-among-bls-economist-184301611.html
Non-public info leaked to Wall Street
Man our courts & regulatory agencies just don't have the appetite to punish the powerful.
It's part of the reason I buy and hold indexes. I can't win a zero sum game against these folks.
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https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/small-time-investors-trump-truth-185507366.html
Suckers
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https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/small-time-investors-trump-truth-185507366.html
Suckers
You've got it wrong, Unk. Dementia Don says the real "suckers" (and "losers") were the World War II soldiers who died for America.
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You've got it wrong, Unk. Dementia Don says the real "suckers" (and "losers") were the World War II soldiers who died for America.
C'mon. DJT is actually investing news (relevant or not), your commentary - not so much.
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https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/small-time-investors-trump-truth-185507366.html
Suckers
As we've seen recently, retail investors can band together to keep meme stocks at artificially high levels for a relatively long time. And, in only takes one Prince Bonesaw or other global leader that wants to curry favor to use the stock as a vehicle to get or stay in Drumpf's good graces.
Based on fundamentals, the stock should be trading at < $1/share. Eventually it will track to it's true worth over time, but this could stay overinflated--it is just a question of how overinflated-- longer than a normal stock.
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As we've seen recently, retail investors can band together to keep meme stocks at artificially high levels for a relatively long time. And, in only takes one Prince Bonesaw or other global leader that wants to curry favor to use the stock as a vehicle to get or stay in Drumpf's good graces.
Based on fundamentals, the stock should be trading at < $1/share. Eventually it will track to it's true worth over time, but this could stay overinflated--it is just a question of how overinflated-- longer than a normal stock.
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent - keynes
No way am I betting against True Believers. I just root against them.
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Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent - keynes
No way am I betting against True Believers. I just root against them.
Issuing another 21M shares, stock down 16%.
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Tesla cutting staff to become operationally efficient when they're valued as a growth company. Ruh roh
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Streaming, yeah that's the ticket.
(https://images2.imgbox.com/9c/8e/pOrmW0mv_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/pOrmW0mv)
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Streaming/VOD is very cash intensive. IDK how they're going to make that work, it's not like they have a lot of cash on hand. Wildly successful Twitch (amazon acquired them for ~$1B) has never turned a profit. Youtube took many years to become profitable.
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Streaming/VOD is very cash intensive. IDK how they're going to make that work, it's not like they have a lot of cash on hand. Wildly successful Twitch (amazon acquired them for ~$1B) has never turned a profit. Youtube took many years to become profitable.
Sounds like a good way for a company struggling with cash flow, to burn through cash even faster.
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Streaming/VOD is very cash intensive. IDK how they're going to make that work.
They're not.