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Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 10025 times)

TSmith34

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Investing Thread
« on: October 29, 2019, 10:00:08 AM »
Since Chicos managed to get the last one locked, let's try again.

MU82, anything looking tempting to you right now? (Yes, I know all the caveats that you do not dispense advice  :))  My small foray into ABBV has worked out fine so far, but I have another chunk that I'm partially looking to put to work due to the payout from Altaba.

Saw your write up on HON, and I agree.  That was one that I had on my short list three years ago and never pulled the trigger--congrats on making a much better decision that me.  Like you, I've also been increasing my cash position, but want to put some of the AABA cash back to work.

Anything stick out to you?
"Bigly mentally unstable, believe me.  Sad, unbelievably sad."

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2019, 10:46:01 AM »
I "like" a lot of companies, but valuations are so stretched on the highest quality names that it's not easy to find many I'm willing to buy.

AT&T just had a really good earnings report. Price has run up this year, but it's still fairly attractive compared to its historic valuations, it has a good dividend (not great dividend growth but a high yield), and it has some growth catalysts going forward.

In a similar industry, Comcast is a solid company that looks fairly valued, and Disney is still not outrageous.

If, like me, you aren't overly concerned about legislative changes that could radically shake up health care, UnitedHealth is a money-making machine and a decent value.

I like stocks of companies that make war machines because that never really goes out of fashion. They've had a pretty big run-up the last several years, though. Lockheed Martin is my fave of the group, but Northrup, Raytheon, UTX, GD, HON, etc, all have some good things going.

I love everything about Microsoft except the valuation -- one of the best-run companies out there IMHO. The same could be said of quite a few defensive companies, such as utilities (NextEra is my favorite) and consumer staples (McCormick, Hormel, Costco, etc etc).

Possible value plays involving beaten-down stocks for those with strong stomachs could include MO, CVS, MMM. Both Amazon and Alphabet (Google) had disappointments in recent earnings reports; neither is cheap, but both are cheaper than a week ago.

Just a few names to chew on. Obviously, there are thousands more.

Again, I do not offer refunds ... but I'm happy to take a share of profits - ha!
"You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy than Scoop game threads."

-- Obi-wan Kenobi

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2019, 12:50:05 AM »
Buy SPY and call it a day

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2019, 04:22:22 AM »
Since Chicos managed to get the last one locked, let's try again.

MU82, anything looking tempting to you right now? (Yes, I know all the caveats that you do not dispense advice  :))  My small foray into ABBV has worked out fine so far, but I have another chunk that I'm partially looking to put to work due to the payout from Altaba.

Saw your write up on HON, and I agree.  That was one that I had on my short list three years ago and never pulled the trigger--congrats on making a much better decision that me.  Like you, I've also been increasing my cash position, but want to put some of the AABA cash back to work.

Anything stick out to you?

I did?  Source?  Seriously, would like to see how I was responsible.

I’ve pulled back on equities at the moment as we begin the crazy season for the next 12 months. 

"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2019, 08:43:04 AM »
I "like" a lot of companies, but valuations are so stretched on the highest quality names that it's not easy to find many I'm willing to buy.

AT&T just had a really good earnings report. Price has run up this year, but it's still fairly attractive compared to its historic valuations, it has a good dividend (not great dividend growth but a high yield), and it has some growth catalysts going forward.

In a similar industry, Comcast is a solid company that looks fairly valued, and Disney is still not outrageous.

If, like me, you aren't overly concerned about legislative changes that could radically shake up health care, UnitedHealth is a money-making machine and a decent value.

I like stocks of companies that make war machines because that never really goes out of fashion. They've had a pretty big run-up the last several years, though. Lockheed Martin is my fave of the group, but Northrup, Raytheon, UTX, GD, HON, etc, all have some good things going.

I love everything about Microsoft except the valuation -- one of the best-run companies out there IMHO. The same could be said of quite a few defensive companies, such as utilities (NextEra is my favorite) and consumer staples (McCormick, Hormel, Costco, etc etc).

Possible value plays involving beaten-down stocks for those with strong stomachs could include MO, CVS, MMM. Both Amazon and Alphabet (Google) had disappointments in recent earnings reports; neither is cheap, but both are cheaper than a week ago.

Just a few names to chew on. Obviously, there are thousands more.

Again, I do not offer refunds ... but I'm happy to take a share of profits - ha!
Thanks for your thoughts 82.
"Bigly mentally unstable, believe me.  Sad, unbelievably sad."

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2019, 08:46:08 AM »
Buy SPY and call it a day
I don't disagree with you, only not at these levels and not with such a long bull market.

I've been slowly rotating my portfolio to create a synthetic annuity, but I think buying SPY during the next bear pullback is a smart play for a core portion.
"Bigly mentally unstable, believe me.  Sad, unbelievably sad."

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2019, 08:49:56 AM »
AT&T announced HBO Max SVOD launch yesterday for May.  Will be interesting to see how that all goes.

"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2019, 08:58:09 AM »
AT&T announced HBO Max SVOD launch yesterday for May.  Will be interesting to see how that all goes.

The market anticipation of dumping deadweight DTV in a spin-off also is also a nice upside.

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2019, 09:13:49 AM »
The market anticipation of dumping deadweight DTV in a spin-off also is also a nice upside.

DTV is and always has been a cash flow play for AT&T and allowed their Uverse product to finally by margin positive by combining more favorable programmer deals.  Who is going to buy DTV? 

"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2019, 01:26:57 PM »
DTV is and always has been a cash flow play for AT&T and allowed their Uverse product to finally by margin positive by combining more favorable programmer deals.  Who is going to buy DTV?

If nobody does, they could just spin it off. That's what companies do sometimes with underperforming divisions. Honeywell spun off two such divisions last year, for example.
"You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy than Scoop game threads."

-- Obi-wan Kenobi

Tortuga94

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2019, 01:50:10 PM »
I hear the Duke brothers are buying orange juice futures.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2019, 01:55:28 PM »
I hear the Duke brothers are buying orange juice futures.

I'll bet you $1 on that.
"You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy than Scoop game threads."

-- Obi-wan Kenobi

Tortuga94

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2019, 02:00:20 PM »

Tortuga94

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2019, 02:12:58 PM »
On a more serious note, it's hard to give individual stock advice when we don't know what the rest of the portfolio looks like.
It's important not to have too much exposure to any one area of the market. I try to avoid just giving one name when making recommendations, I'm just not that smart.

So, I will tell you what my last three purchases were for my personal portfolio. Exelixis(EXEL), biotech stock. Infinera(INFN) communication equipment. Starbucks, I think you know what they do.

EXEL, I've owned for a long time, my original purchase was for about $4/share, then I bought more under 2. It's beenmy biggest winner. I recently bought more. They report today after the close, so likely a big move up or down.

INFN, I'm taking a flyer on, I bought it at 5 bucks/share.

SBUX I bought recently, I'm slightly underwater there. They also report today. Bought for the income and long-term growth potential.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2019, 03:25:21 PM »
On a more serious note, it's hard to give individual stock advice when we don't know what the rest of the portfolio looks like.
It's important not to have too much exposure to any one area of the market. I try to avoid just giving one name when making recommendations, I'm just not that smart.

So, I will tell you what my last three purchases were for my personal portfolio. Exelixis(EXEL), biotech stock. Infinera(INFN) communication equipment. Starbucks, I think you know what they do.

EXEL, I've owned for a long time, my original purchase was for about $4/share, then I bought more under 2. It's beenmy biggest winner. I recently bought more. They report today after the close, so likely a big move up or down.

INFN, I'm taking a flyer on, I bought it at 5 bucks/share.

SBUX I bought recently, I'm slightly underwater there. They also report today. Bought for the income and long-term growth potential.

SBUX just reported strong earnings. A very nice report all around. Plus, a 14% dividend hike. I did trim some a month or so back, taking some profits when they approached their all-time high, but I still hold plenty. A superbly run company with a deep moat.

Thanks for those other two names. They really aren't in my wheelhouse, as I am a long-term investor who prefers dividend-growing companies, but I always like to learn about interesting investment opportunities.
"You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy than Scoop game threads."

-- Obi-wan Kenobi

muwarrior69

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2019, 03:34:39 PM »
I'm investing in Dawson Garcia's image, likeness and name futures, but only if he commits to MU.

He is starting an IPO from what I hear.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 03:36:22 PM by muwarrior69 »

Lennys Tap

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2019, 03:57:57 PM »
Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2019, 04:05:25 PM »
If nobody does, they could just spin it off. That's what companies do sometimes with underperforming divisions. Honeywell spun off two such divisions last year, for example.

Just my suggestion, but I think you may want to listen to AT&T’s earnings call from Monday about that asset.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2019, 04:45:01 PM »
Just my suggestion, but I think you may want to listen to AT&T’s earnings call from Monday about that asset.

Thanks
"You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy than Scoop game threads."

-- Obi-wan Kenobi

Jay Bee

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2019, 04:52:38 PM »
Who’s playing a nifty strategy with AYX?

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2019, 05:00:14 PM »
DTV is and always has been a cash flow play for AT&T and allowed their Uverse product to finally by margin positive by combining more favorable programmer deals.  Who is going to buy DTV?

Rumored to be Apollo

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2019, 06:54:34 PM »
Just my suggestion, but I think you may want to listen to AT&T’s earnings call from Monday about that asset.

Here are the two main points the CEO and CFO made about DTV in the earnings call:

Gaining scale in linear pay TV was the core rationale behind our DIRECTV acquisition. We realized the satellite business was mature and we anticipated subscriber losses.

However, the content savings quickly turned our U-verse pay TV business from loss to a profit. And since we bought DIRECTV, it has generated healthy cash flows of over $4 billion per year or a total of $22 billion in cash by the end of this year.

Our free cash flow has grown significantly over the past few years, and that's thanks in part to our DIRECTV and Time Warner deals being cash flow-accretive on day 1. We expect free cash flow to be at $28 billion in 2020.
[/i]

And ...


We're always open to making portfolio moves, and DIRECTV has been the source of a lot of public speculation in that regard. As we've said, it will be an important piece of our strategy over the next 3 years.

But no portion of our business is ever exempt from a continuous assessment for fit and performance. We'll approach it with a fresh set of eyes and clarity around the rapidly evolving consumer environment, and we'll evaluate multiple options. That includes partnerships and other structures.

Likewise, given the quality of our assets, there will be no major acquisitions during the next several years.[/i]

+++

In other words, they are rationalizing having significantly overspent for DTV by saying it's been a cash-flow machine ... and they are talking like a pro sports team GM might about a player they think will be part of their future but never say never to moving any player.

There is no reason for them to give away DTV. It really is a solid cash-flow creator, and they need that. But, as the CEO said, there are no "sacred cows." Selling or spinning off DTV certainly could happen.

Seriously, hoopy, thanks for calling it to my intention. I usually only read earnings call transcripts if I am considering buying or selling a stock, but this was interesting.

"You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy than Scoop game threads."

-- Obi-wan Kenobi

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2019, 08:50:54 PM »
Here are the two main points the CEO and CFO made about DTV in the earnings call:

Gaining scale in linear pay TV was the core rationale behind our DIRECTV acquisition. We realized the satellite business was mature and we anticipated subscriber losses.

However, the content savings quickly turned our U-verse pay TV business from loss to a profit. And since we bought DIRECTV, it has generated healthy cash flows of over $4 billion per year or a total of $22 billion in cash by the end of this year.

Our free cash flow has grown significantly over the past few years, and that's thanks in part to our DIRECTV and Time Warner deals being cash flow-accretive on day 1. We expect free cash flow to be at $28 billion in 2020.
[/i]

And ...


We're always open to making portfolio moves, and DIRECTV has been the source of a lot of public speculation in that regard. As we've said, it will be an important piece of our strategy over the next 3 years.

But no portion of our business is ever exempt from a continuous assessment for fit and performance. We'll approach it with a fresh set of eyes and clarity around the rapidly evolving consumer environment, and we'll evaluate multiple options. That includes partnerships and other structures.

Likewise, given the quality of our assets, there will be no major acquisitions during the next several years.[/i]

+++

In other words, they are rationalizing having significantly overspent for DTV by saying it's been a cash-flow machine ... and they are talking like a pro sports team GM might about a player they think will be part of their future but never say never to moving any player.

There is no reason for them to give away DTV. It really is a solid cash-flow creator, and they need that. But, as the CEO said, there are no "sacred cows." Selling or spinning off DTV certainly could happen.

Seriously, hoopy, thanks for calling it to my intention. I usually only read earnings call transcripts if I am considering buying or selling a stock, but this was interesting.

Happy to help. 
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Galway Eagle

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2019, 09:36:20 PM »
Is it generally smart to take advantage of employee stock plans?
“More the knowledge, lesser the ego. Lesser the knowledge, more the ego.” Albert Einstein a note for some posters

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2019, 10:06:03 PM »
Is it generally smart to take advantage of employee stock plans?

I think so. (But again, I'm no "expert.")

My son-in-law has worked for Microsoft for 10+ years and he has a VERY nice nest egg going for a guy who's only 32. And my daughter got a lot of Starbucks stock before she left there.

Now, of course, somebody who has worked at GE hasn't fared as well with company stock.

But especially if you can buy $1 worth for 80-85 cents, like some company plans do ... that's a no-brainer.

On the flip side, there is a rule of thumb that loading up on stock from your employer might mean you have too much invested in one company: You've invested a lot of $$ and they also control your work situation. But I personally am not a big "rule of thumb" guy.

I wish you good fortune.
"You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy than Scoop game threads."

-- Obi-wan Kenobi

 

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