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Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 9557 times)

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #50 on: November 02, 2019, 11:51:43 AM »
Yes, see the end of the previous thread.  Then kindly STFU and don't ruin this one.

Link please
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Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #51 on: November 04, 2019, 06:40:20 PM »
He said a number of years ago that he didn't think he was going to be able to beat the S&P500 anymore due to the size of BRK. 

EDIT: And over 10 years he is lagging 196% to 228%

It is worse than that.  He really started underperforming for 21 years ago!
(the 1998 peak in the relative performance chart below is higher than the last plot. That means he has underperformed the market since that date.



https://www.ft.com/content/40b9b356-661e-11e9-a79d-04f350474d62

And his long-time investors are bailing on him.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/longtime-berkshire-hathaway-investor-warren-buffett-51571069340?mod=hp_LEAD_1

His problem is simple ... instead of constantly bragging that he doesn't understand tech and spent that time learning about tech, and started investing in it in the 1990s, he wouldn't be this god awful.

(He is so awful because mere mortals are not allowed to get this bad.  They are fired long before it gets to this point.  But Warren can suck for a generation and we still talk about him with reverance.)
« Last Edit: November 04, 2019, 06:44:43 PM by Heisenberg v2.0 »

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #52 on: November 05, 2019, 10:40:42 AM »

His problem is simple ... instead of constantly bragging that he doesn't understand tech and spent that time learning about tech, and started investing in it in the 1990s, he wouldn't be this god awful.
I think he recognized that, albeit too late probably, because he put his Lt.'s in charge of distinct chunks of the portfolio, thus the big position in AAPL.
"Bigly mentally unstable, believe me.  Sad, unbelievably sad."

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #53 on: November 05, 2019, 03:15:51 PM »
Whether or not folks regard Buffett as a once-upon-a-time great investor, a no-longer great investor, a still-great investor or a never-was great investor, it means diddly-do to me.

It's irrelevant to the conversation about whether it is "possible" to beat SPY. Of course it is; many do.

Beyond that, the fact that many do is irrelevant as to whether most folks should invest in SPY. If somebody came to me and said, "I think I'm going to put the stock portion of my portfolio into SPY," I would not try for even one second to talk him or her out of doing so. It, and other good index ETFs and funds, is a logical vehicle for most to invest in.
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Hards_Alumni

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #54 on: November 05, 2019, 05:38:35 PM »
Whether or not folks regard Buffett as a once-upon-a-time great investor, a no-longer great investor, a still-great investor or a never-was great investor, it means diddly-do to me.

It's irrelevant to the conversation about whether it is "possible" to beat SPY. Of course it is; many do.

Beyond that, the fact that many do is irrelevant as to whether most folks should invest in SPY. If somebody came to me and said, "I think I'm going to put the stock portion of my portfolio into SPY," I would not try for even one second to talk him or her out of doing so. It, and other good index ETFs and funds, is a logical vehicle for most to invest in.

Which sectors do you like?  I'm a bit heavy in health care and I'd like some free advice  ;D

Herman Cain

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #55 on: November 05, 2019, 05:50:14 PM »
What is The Jeopardy Question for this answer?

Paulina, Melvina and Lunt

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #56 on: November 05, 2019, 06:17:03 PM »
Which sectors do you like?  I'm a bit heavy in health care and I'd like some free advice  ;D

I'm not really very comfortable giving "advice." Besides, I don't know anything about your goals, risk tolerance, portfolio management style, etc.

For myself, I "like" quite a few sectors but much of the market is so overvalued right now that I'm putting very little new money to work, and I've even done some selling, which is unusual for me as I'm a buy-and-holdish kind of guy.

For example, as a guy who primarily uses the Dividend Growth Investing strategy, I like high-quality utilities and consumer staples. But my favorites, companies like NEE and MKC, are ridiculously overvalued. It doesn't mean they can't still go up from here, it just means they don't seem to give much margin of error.

I do like health care. A lot of even solid names have been beaten down over worries about major changes to the way Americans receive health care -- even though it is highly unlikely that these major changes will be realized. One I've bought fairly recently is UNH. TSmith and I already have discussed ABBV. Even JNJ, the stalwart of stalwarts in the industry, is fairly priced.

I like a lot of good tech companies, too, but I am cautious because I know they could fall pretty hard whenever the next recession comes. I think MSFT is one of the best-run companies out there, and it's hard to quibble with the likes of GOOGL or AAPL or even AVGO.

There are some reasonably valued companies in energy and industrials, but one has to be willing to accept that macro conditions create a lot of volatility in those sectors. For traders, that can be a good thing.

Just a little sampling for you. Obviously, there are thousands of publicly traded companies and lots of them are high-quality, blue-chip names. I don't speculate in little-known companies, so I don't have any "secrets" for you.

Happy investing.
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TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #57 on: November 05, 2019, 07:46:32 PM »
I do like health care. A lot of even solid names have been beaten down over worries about major changes to the way Americans receive health care -- even though it is highly unlikely that these major changes will be realized. One I've bought fairly recently is UNH. TSmith and I already have discussed ABBV. Even JNJ, the stalwart of stalwarts in the industry, is fairly priced.

Another one we mentioned in this space is CVS, which I think is still fairly valued if no longer cheap, and it has a nearly 3% dividend to keep the lights on while they finished their merger integration.

A name I like is Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (HASI) a REIT in the sustainable energy space which includes not only green energy but even more mundane improvements like scale HVAC projects.  Mind you, they've run up more than 50% this year so they aren't inexpensive either (though ignore the published PE number, that isn't how REITS are priced), but I think management is superb.

The one thing in my portfolio that makes me really nervous is OHI.  They just reported a decent quarter and even unexpectedly increased the dividend, but it is a real risky space...it is just hard to quit the juicy 6.1% yield.
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TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #58 on: November 05, 2019, 07:54:31 PM »
Another one we mentioned in this space is CVS, which I think is still fairly valued if no longer cheap, and it has a nearly 3% dividend to keep the lights on while they finish their merger integration.

A name I like is Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (HASI) a REIT in the sustainable energy space which includes not only green energy but even more mundane improvements like scale HVAC projects.  Mind you, they've run up more than 50% this year so they aren't inexpensive either (though ignore the published PE number, that isn't how REITS are priced), but I think management is superb.

The one thing in my portfolio that makes me really nervous is OHI.  They just reported a decent quarter and even unexpectedly increased the dividend, but it is a real risky space...it is just hard to quit the juicy 6.1% yield.
"Bigly mentally unstable, believe me.  Sad, unbelievably sad."

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #59 on: November 05, 2019, 09:29:03 PM »
Another one we mentioned in this space is CVS, which I think is still fairly valued if no longer cheap, and it has a nearly 3% dividend to keep the lights on while they finished their merger integration.

A name I like is Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (HASI) a REIT in the sustainable energy space which includes not only green energy but even more mundane improvements like scale HVAC projects.  Mind you, they've run up more than 50% this year so they aren't inexpensive either (though ignore the published PE number, that isn't how REITS are priced), but I think management is superb.

The one thing in my portfolio that makes me really nervous is OHI.  They just reported a decent quarter and even unexpectedly increased the dividend, but it is a real risky space...it is just hard to quit the juicy 6.1% yield.

I sold OHI last year. I just decided I didn't "need" it for the reasons you cited. I know many good investors whom I really respect who continue to hold it, though.

CVS reports earnings tomorrow, and I'll be interested. I already own some, not really looking to add more, but maybe. They froze their dividend after running up debt in the Aetna acquisition, but yes still a decent yield. Most analysts think CVS is quite undervalued. I've owned it for about 3 years and it's been a net loser for me so far.

Don't know much about HASI. The only REIT I own now is O.
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Benny B

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #60 on: November 05, 2019, 11:02:47 PM »
Which sectors do you like?  I'm a bit heavy in health care and I'd like some free advice  ;D

Consumer staples is the conventional wisdom at the currently perceived point in the cycle.

Keep an eye on KO... took a steep drop in past week but there was a lot of action in the January calls this morning, so someone’s making a big bet on a rebound. 

And not the Mike Tyson kind.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Benny B

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #61 on: November 06, 2019, 09:05:31 AM »
Query:

Will the reduction/elimination of brokerage fees by the major houses increase the volume of existing day traders and/or the quantity of day traders?
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #62 on: November 06, 2019, 09:07:30 AM »
CVS reports earnings tomorrow, and I'll be interested. I already own some, not really looking to add more, but maybe. They froze their dividend after running up debt in the Aetna acquisition, but yes still a decent yield. Most analysts think CVS is quite undervalued. I've owned it for about 3 years and it's been a net loser for me so far.
Beat and raise, best kind of report.
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TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #63 on: November 06, 2019, 09:10:28 AM »
Query:

Will the reduction/elimination of brokerage fees by the major houses increase the volume of existing day traders and/or the quantity of day traders?
I'm bad at predictions, but one would think nearly frictionless trading would increase the volume through either or both.

Thinking of taking up day trading? :)
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MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #64 on: November 06, 2019, 10:20:00 AM »
Query:

Will the reduction/elimination of brokerage fees by the major houses increase the volume of existing day traders and/or the quantity of day traders?

One wouldn't think that those who day trade for a living would be motivated by saving a couple of bucks, but I guess I could see more "amateurs" doing it now.

The best part of the no commission thing is that it really helps 20-somethings, 30-somethings and other relatively low-money investors who are just getting started.
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MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #65 on: November 06, 2019, 10:21:57 AM »
Beat and raise, best kind of report.

Yes, it was a nice report. Not all of the guidance was great, but it was good enough. I'm glad I held onto my CVS, though I haven't decided yet if it's gonna be a long-term one for me.
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JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #66 on: November 06, 2019, 12:07:03 PM »
Query:

Will the reduction/elimination of brokerage fees by the major houses increase the volume of existing day traders and/or the quantity of day traders?

I would imagine it may bring some in. But the problem is, and what people don’t realize, is that this just means these brokerage houses will sell your order flow to quant and hedge funds who will front run your orders.

So it’s great if you have a few hundred bucks and you can make a $50 trade without losing $8 to TD Ameritrade on both sides. But this is actually a development that will long run hurt small sized day traders.  There were already places like TastyWorks or Interactive Brokers that had lower commissions, this just changed the business model for brokerages from commissions to data sales

Mane'shouse 84

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #67 on: November 07, 2019, 11:22:41 AM »
Beat and raise, best kind of report.
My broker has me in CVS for the same reason. It’s not done well but all the analysts believe it’s undervalued and is primed to take off.
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Benny B

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #68 on: November 07, 2019, 08:17:32 PM »
I would imagine it may bring some in. But the problem is, and what people don’t realize, is that this just means these brokerage houses will sell your order flow to quant and hedge funds who will front run your orders.

So it’s great if you have a few hundred bucks and you can make a $50 trade without losing $8 to TD Ameritrade on both sides. But this is actually a development that will long run hurt small sized day traders.  There were already places like TastyWorks or Interactive Brokers that had lower commissions, this just changed the business model for brokerages from commissions to data sales

Interesting theory if not for the fact that it’s wildly illegal.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #69 on: November 07, 2019, 09:16:09 PM »
I would imagine it may bring some in. But the problem is, and what people don’t realize, is that this just means these brokerage houses will sell your order flow to quant and hedge funds who will front run your orders.

So it’s great if you have a few hundred bucks and you can make a $50 trade without losing $8 to TD Ameritrade on both sides. But this is actually a development that will long run hurt small sized day traders.  There were already places like TastyWorks or Interactive Brokers that had lower commissions, this just changed the business model for brokerages from commissions to data sales

Hmmm. I admit I've never heard this one before.
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JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #70 on: November 07, 2019, 11:33:51 PM »
Interesting theory if not for the fact that it’s wildly illegal.

Since when has that ever stopped anyone?

If someone makes $8-15ish on thousands of transactions, over millions of customers. Then suddenly that doesn’t decrease, it flat out vanishes. That company stock price should evaporate and the company be reeling on the ropes. Yet it isn’t. There is clearly a contingency plan and alternate revenue source they can rely on. I don’t know the specific machinations on it, but I know this won’t result in a pure win for the retail trader and a massive loss for brokerage houses.

It was one of the first thing that some smart people I follow said in the immediate aftermath of the commission changes.

Ellenson Family Reunion

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #71 on: November 08, 2019, 06:59:11 AM »
Since when has that ever stopped anyone?

If someone makes $8-15ish on thousands of transactions, over millions of customers. Then suddenly that doesn’t decrease, it flat out vanishes. That company stock price should evaporate and the company be reeling on the ropes. Yet it isn’t. There is clearly a contingency plan and alternate revenue source they can rely on. I don’t know the specific machinations on it, but I know this won’t result in a pure win for the retail trader and a massive loss for brokerage houses.

It was one of the first thing that some smart people I follow said in the immediate aftermath of the commission changes.

They make it up on volume and the bid/ask spread (a hidden implicit fee)

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #72 on: November 08, 2019, 07:37:06 AM »
Outstanding earnings report for Disney, which is about to hit an all-time high ...

Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is up 3.8% postmarket after easily clearing the Street's profit bar in fiscal Q4 earnings, paced by strong gains in its TV networks and film studio juiced by its Fox acquisitions.

Revenues grew 34% Y/Y to $19.1B for the quarter. For the fiscal year, revenues were up 17% to $69.57B.

Total segment operating income rose 5% to $3.44B. Net income from continuing operations was $785M.

Revenue by segment: Media Networks, $6.51B (up 22%); Parks, Experiences and Products, $6.66B (up 8%); Studio Entertainment, $3.31B (up 52%); Direct-to-Consumer and International, $3.43B (up 316%).

Broadcast was an unexpected strength in Media Networks revenues, coming in well ahead of schedule at $2.27B.

Cash from continuing operations was $1.72B, and free cash flow $409M.


I guess those who said to stay away when DIS was in the $80s because ESPN was going to take the entire company down the drain might have miscalculated a little.
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buckchuckler

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #73 on: November 08, 2019, 07:46:28 AM »
Anyone else buy Micron Technologies just because their symbol is MU?
Their= possessive of they
They're= slightly shorter than "they are"
There= the opposite of here

Benny B

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #74 on: November 08, 2019, 09:48:01 AM »
Anyone else buy Micron Technologies just because their symbol is MU?

I bought MU for its P/E multiple. 
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.