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Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 287641 times)

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #100 on: November 21, 2019, 10:34:53 AM »
I, too, have actually been increasing cash but am only at 15%.  Timing the market has never worked for me, but the market risk seems very high to me right now.

I think I'm quite a bit older than you, TS, and I have mostly reached my investing goals so it lets me be less aggressive than, say, my kids, who are 30-somethings. I have been "de-risking" my portfolio quite a bit the last year. Some of the cash I expect will remain on the sidelines indefinitely, perhaps forever. The stock positions I sold to get that particular cash have been "retired" in my mind. Other cash will be put back to work when I believe valuations of stocks I want to own (or own more of) are more reasonable.

So I don't really view it as market timing ... but I guess that's semantics, because one could make an argument that it is, at least in part.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Coleman

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #101 on: November 21, 2019, 10:38:16 AM »
All equities baby. Only cash is in my emergency fund. I am in my early 30s. Hope the market tanks on you boomers so I can buy cheap!

DegenerateDish

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #102 on: November 21, 2019, 11:58:16 AM »
Do you use either brokerage?

As for the "cash on the sidelines" discussion ... I also have been slowly building my cash reserves. Still about 60% equities.

I don't, my brother works for E Trade, so I've used them for years.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #103 on: November 21, 2019, 12:35:03 PM »
I think I'm quite a bit older than you, TS, and I have mostly reached my investing goals so it lets me be less aggressive than, say, my kids, who are 30-somethings. I have been "de-risking" my portfolio quite a bit the last year. Some of the cash I expect will remain on the sidelines indefinitely, perhaps forever. The stock positions I sold to get that particular cash have been "retired" in my mind. Other cash will be put back to work when I believe valuations of stocks I want to own (or own more of) are more reasonable.

So I don't really view it as market timing ... but I guess that's semantics, because one could make an argument that it is, at least in part.


This is exactly where I am. Even when I view stocks as more of a bargain, they will never again make up the lion's share of my assets.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #104 on: November 21, 2019, 12:37:11 PM »
All equities baby. Only cash is in my emergency fund. I am in my early 30s. Hope the market tanks on you boomers so I can buy cheap!

I don't blame you.


This is exactly where I am. Even when I view stocks as more of a bargain, they will never again make up the lion's share of my assets.

Depends on how you define "lion's share." As I said, I'm still about 60% equities.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #105 on: November 21, 2019, 01:55:07 PM »
I think I'm quite a bit older than you, TS, and I have mostly reached my investing goals so it lets me be less aggressive than, say, my kids, who are 30-somethings. I have been "de-risking" my portfolio quite a bit the last year. Some of the cash I expect will remain on the sidelines indefinitely, perhaps forever. The stock positions I sold to get that particular cash have been "retired" in my mind. Other cash will be put back to work when I believe valuations of stocks I want to own (or own more of) are more reasonable.

So I don't really view it as market timing ... but I guess that's semantics, because one could make an argument that it is, at least in part.
Yeah, I didn't intend my comment to be disparaging at all, only that *my* attempts to guess the direction of the market and adjust equities exposure have been quite poor.   And I'd agree, what you are doing only partially qualifies as market timing at all.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #106 on: November 21, 2019, 02:02:33 PM »
Yeah, I didn't intend my comment to be disparaging at all, only that *my* attempts to guess the direction of the market and adjust equities exposure have been quite poor.   And I'd agree, what you are doing only partially qualifies as market timing at all.

No worries. I wasn't the slight bit offended.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

GooooMarquette

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #107 on: November 22, 2019, 08:54:34 AM »
I don't blame you.

Depends on how you define "lion's share." As I said, I'm still about 60% equities.


I am well below 60% now, but might get back up to that range when the market takes a significant dip.


Not A Serious Person

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #108 on: November 23, 2019, 08:43:03 AM »
World's largest hedge fund is reportedly betting on a sell-off, but founder Ray Dalio denies it

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/bridgewater-associates-bets-over-1-billion-on-wintertime-sell-off.html

The reported wager placed by Bridgewater Associates would pay off for the firm if either the S&P 500 or the Euro Stoxx 50 or both decline.
Western Progressives have one worldview, the correct one.

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #109 on: November 23, 2019, 10:05:07 AM »
World's largest hedge fund is reportedly betting on a sell-off, but founder Ray Dalio denies it

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/bridgewater-associates-bets-over-1-billion-on-wintertime-sell-off.html

The reported wager placed by Bridgewater Associates would pay off for the firm if either the S&P 500 or the Euro Stoxx 50 or both decline.

This is such garbage clickbait and why CNBC is better known as CNBS.  Bridgewater has $160B AUM management. So they are “betting” less than 1% on a decline of the market from all time highs. It’s a reasonable and frankly small hedge against long positions. This not Michael Bury and Steve Eisman betting against the mortgage market

Golden Avalanche

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #110 on: November 23, 2019, 03:01:00 PM »
This is such garbage clickbait and why CNBC is better known as CNBS.  Bridgewater has $160B AUM management. So they are “betting” less than 1% on a decline of the market from all time highs. It’s a reasonable and frankly small hedge against long positions. This not Michael Bury and Steve Eisman betting against the mortgage market

The Wall Street Journal reported the hedge. Why are you insulting CNBC? 

Not A Serious Person

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #111 on: November 24, 2019, 11:46:05 PM »
This is such garbage clickbait and why CNBC is better known as CNBS.  Bridgewater has $160B AUM management. So they are “betting” less than 1% on a decline of the market from all time highs. It’s a reasonable and frankly small hedge against long positions. This not Michael Bury and Steve Eisman betting against the mortgage market

It not a $1 billion nomnial bet.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bridgewater-bets-big-on-market-drop-11574418601

Bridgewater paid roughly $1.5 billion for the options contracts, or just about 1% of the Westport, Conn., firm’s $150 billion in assets under management, according to people familiar with the matter.

The options contracts are tied to around $100 billion worth of the indexes, said people familiar with the matter. How much the firm stands to potentially make would depend on many factors, including the magnitude of any market decline and the timing of when the firm cashes in its bet.

----

So, more clickbait?
« Last Edit: November 24, 2019, 11:49:33 PM by Heisenberg v2.0 »
Western Progressives have one worldview, the correct one.

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #112 on: November 25, 2019, 10:35:10 AM »
The Wall Street Journal reported the hedge. Why are you insulting CNBC?

Because CNBC is the king of clickbait, "MARKETS IN TURMOIL" whenever the S&P drops a hundred points in a week.  If you think they are hardcore financial news, and not home of entertainment surrounding the markets, idk what to tell you.  Its the home of Mad Money after all.

 Also, the WSJ headline clearly spells out an options bet, which implies a hedge.  The CNBC headline just speaks to the worlds largest hedge fund eying a "sell off".

Golden Avalanche

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #113 on: November 25, 2019, 11:13:01 AM »
Because CNBC is the king of clickbait, "MARKETS IN TURMOIL" whenever the S&P drops a hundred points in a week.  If you think they are hardcore financial news, and not home of entertainment surrounding the markets, idk what to tell you.  Its the home of Mad Money after all.

 Also, the WSJ headline clearly spells out an options bet, which implies a hedge.  The CNBC headline just speaks to the worlds largest hedge fund eying a "sell off".

Ok. Seems like you're backloading a mistake and thank you for an answer.

Benny B

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #114 on: November 25, 2019, 11:41:11 AM »
Because CNBC is the king of clickbait, "MARKETS IN TURMOIL" whenever the S&P drops a hundred points in a week.  If you think they are hardcore financial news, and not home of entertainment surrounding the markets, idk what to tell you.  Its the home of Mad Money after all.

 Also, the WSJ headline clearly spells out an options bet, which implies a hedge.  The CNBC headline just speaks to the worlds largest hedge fund eying a "sell off".

What’s wrong with Mad Money?  Jim Cramer has probably done more to explain and offset the misinformation Wall Street feeds the Main Street investor than the SEC.  Sure, for those of us with a finance degree, the show is complete schlock, but we’re not the target audience.

Not to defend CNBC, but to be fair, just like nearly every media outlet, CNBC’s “on-screen” and “on-line” news depts. are essentially two separate, autonomous entities.  So using Mad Money to discredit CNBC’s clickbaiting prowess is a page right out of Chico’s straw man and goalposting shifting playbook.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #115 on: November 25, 2019, 12:02:43 PM »
What’s wrong with Mad Money?  Jim Cramer has probably done more to explain and offset the misinformation Wall Street feeds the Main Street investor than the SEC.  Sure, for those of us with a finance degree, the show is complete schlock, but we’re not the target audience.

I think it actually started with a solid foundation and good intentions, but its basically just become schlock and best, and Cramer cheerleading at worst.  He borders on being a pumper.  He talks out both sides of his mouth and for naive investors, its a recipe for getting destroyed because viewers treat him like gospel.  Its been on for 15 years, I don't think its resembled its early form for the last 7-8.

Not to defend CNBC, but to be fair, just like nearly every media outlet, CNBC’s “on-screen” and “on-line” news depts. are essentially two separate, autonomous entities.  So using Mad Money to discredit CNBC’s clickbaiting prowess is a page right out of Chico’s straw man and goalposting shifting playbook.

I have issues with CNBC in both formats, I'll happily take shots at either.  Their online is clickbaity and sensationalist.  Their on-air falls off a cliff as the day goes on.  I actually have no problem with both "Squawk" programs.  But FastMoney is a joke and we've been over Mad Money.  I just think its very lacking as a financial news source that people try to portray it as in both forms.

Benny B

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #116 on: November 25, 2019, 12:30:42 PM »
He borders on being a pumper.  He talks out both sides of his mouth...

I don’t watch enough of the program to know if/what he’s pumping, but he regularly discloses his positions on Squawk, and if you’re talking out of both sides of your mouth, isn’t that the antithesis of pumping?

Sure, CNBC is no Bloomberg or BBC, but investing is a zero sum game.  Those who win following the gospel think it’s great, those who lose think it sucks, and those on the outside try to make money by trashing everyone else.  By definition, you can’t be everything to everyone.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #117 on: November 25, 2019, 02:55:49 PM »
UTURN
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Not A Serious Person

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #118 on: November 25, 2019, 09:40:20 PM »
I have issues with CNBC in both formats, I'll happily take shots at either.  Their online is clickbaity and sensationalist.  Their on-air falls off a cliff as the day goes on.  I actually have no problem with both "Squawk" programs.  But FastMoney is a joke and we've been over Mad Money.  I just think its very lacking as a financial news source that people try to portray it as in both forms.

Why do you bother with CNBC?

* Fox Business' ratings are over 2x CNBC.
* Bloomberg does not have ratings but it understood that it has a larger audience than CNBC.
* The streaming services of Yahoo, Schwab, TDA, and even Cheddar have more downloads than CNBC has in audience.

Sum it up and there are 5 or 6 business news outlets with larger audiences than CNBC.

CNBC is no longer a financial business show, it is an anthropology class from a previous cycle.
Western Progressives have one worldview, the correct one.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #119 on: November 26, 2019, 07:47:40 AM »
I never watch CNBC. I don't see the value in doing so.

On another note ...

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3522063-disney-getting-1m-new-subs-per-day

DISNEY+ GETTING 1M NEW SUBS PER DAY

Research firm Apptopia figures Disney's (NYSE:DIS) new streaming service has been downloaded a whopping 15.5M times in less than two weeks since launch.

And that's not just folks taking advantage of a free trial - the data further shows $5M of in-app purchases.

The early numbers suggest Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has a "legit competitor," says Wedbush's Dan Ives. "The pricing, the content and the bundling was just a pure genius strategy from Iger and Disney."
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Tortuga94

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #120 on: November 26, 2019, 09:58:52 AM »
I never watch CNBC. I don't see the value in doing so.

On another note ...

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3522063-disney-getting-1m-new-subs-per-day

DISNEY+ GETTING 1M NEW SUBS PER DAY

Research firm Apptopia figures Disney's (NYSE:DIS) new streaming service has been downloaded a whopping 15.5M times in less than two weeks since launch.

And that's not just folks taking advantage of a free trial - the data further shows $5M of in-app purchases.

The early numbers suggest Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has a "legit competitor," says Wedbush's Dan Ives. "The pricing, the content and the bundling was just a pure genius strategy from Iger and Disney."

I have hulu for I believe $7/mo and ESPN+ for $5/mo.
I can bundle those with Disney+ for $12.99/mo. Seems like a no brainer. Will be doing it soon.
I figure there are a lot of people doing the same thing.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #121 on: November 26, 2019, 10:08:17 AM »
I have hulu for I believe $7/mo and ESPN+ for $5/mo.
I can bundle those with Disney+ for $12.99/mo. Seems like a no brainer. Will be doing it soon.
I figure there are a lot of people doing the same thing.

It's hard to imagine any family that has kids and sports fans wouldn't get tremendous benefit from Disney+ at this price point. It was outstanding strategy by Disney, and definitely could take a large bite out of Netflix. The industry is changing rapidly, though, so we'll see who does what next.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #122 on: November 26, 2019, 10:43:11 AM »
Why do you bother with CNBC?

* Fox Business' ratings are over 2x CNBC.
* Bloomberg does not have ratings but it understood that it has a larger audience than CNBC.
* The streaming services of Yahoo, Schwab, TDA, and even Cheddar have more downloads than CNBC has in audience.

Sum it up and there are 5 or 6 business news outlets with larger audiences than CNBC.

CNBC is no longer a financial business show, it is an anthropology class from a previous cycle.

I don't anymore.  It was just a comment on the programming and how I feel about it.  I'm not watching it every day cursing it.

As for DIS, the Disney+ bundling is one of the first times in awhile it feels like Disney is truly taking advantage of and monetizing their gargantuan media presence.  Its truly extremely well done and a monster "all ages" spread that puts a shock into Netflix.

Jay Bee

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #123 on: November 26, 2019, 10:55:34 AM »
CNBC got some hunnies tho
Thanks for ruining summer, Canada.

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #124 on: November 26, 2019, 06:55:26 PM »
100th record high today in last three years. 
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire