Investing Thread

[Cheeks]

I don't anymore.  It was just a comment on the programming and how I feel about it.  I'm not watching it every day cursing it.

As for DIS, the Disney+ bundling is one of the first times in awhile it feels like Disney is truly taking advantage of and monetizing their gargantuan media presence.  Its truly extremely well done and a monster "all ages" spread that puts a shock into Netflix.

We will see...we don’t think it hits all ages for long.  It’s wonderful for younger demo, but once you have seen the stuff for everyone else, will they have a churn issue?  In other words, is there enough content for other demos long term?  Will be interesting to see their churn numbers in a few months.  The pricing will help buttress that considerably if it simply becomes a “gym “ membership and people let it ride.  They won’t share their usage info other than very high level.

What isn’t being talked about is their backend drop.

Let me give you an example.  They have about 85 million customers that pay them for ESPN right now at about $8 a month...even though 50% of those folks don’t watch ESPN.  Easy math let’s say about $7.6 billion annually.  Now, as people cut the cord and no longer have ESPN in their tv bundle, only those that truly care about sports will pay.  ESPN will have to price it at a premium to get that same level of revenue or they don’t and just write off the revenue to get market share.  Those are the fun decisions everyone is grappling with right now in our industry.

[Not A Serious Person]

CNBC got some hunnies tho

Try Fox Business

[Elonsmusk]

Would strongly encourage all to get into AMRN, ASAP - as in Monday.  I put 50% of my portfolio into it back in July and used another 25% to buy the dips the last 5 months for dollar cost average of $18 per share.

AMRN's Vascepa will revolutionize the way we treat heart disease, diabetes, strokes, and potentially dementia.

Other strong biotech play:  IGMS

Stock I took a flier on and kind of like is WRTC.

[Hards Alumni]

Would strongly encourage all to get into AMRN, ASAP - as in Monday.  I put 50% of my portfolio into it back in July and used another 25% to buy the dips the last 5 months for dollar cost average of $18 per share.

AMRN's Vascepa will revolutionize the way we treat heart disease, diabetes, strokes, and potentially dementia.

Other strong biotech play:  IGMS

Stock I took a flier on and kind of like is WRTC.

AMRN is at ATH, are they dropping some news on Monday or what?

[Elonsmusk]

AMRN is at ATH, are they dropping some news on Monday or what?

They halted stock from trading Friday at 1:06 EST due to pending announcement of broadened FDA approval for their drug.  Released news 5:00EST Friday, resumed trading at 5:30 EST in After Hours...up another $2.66 after hours - but institutional investors were on sidelines.  Only 3 million shares changed hands after hours.

This company is very likely to get bought out in next 6 months, but also very well prepared to go it alone.

They doubled revenue from $200M in 2018 to on track for $410M in 2019, with only and indication to treat patients with triglycerides over 500 (which is crazy high and small market.) What came out Friday lowered that figure to 150, and also was suggested to be indicated for diabetics, and stroke patients.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

They halted stock from trading Friday at 1:06 EST due to pending announcement of broadened FDA approval for their drug.  Released news 5:00EST Friday, resumed trading at 5:30 EST in After Hours...up another $2.66 after hours - but institutional investors were on sidelines.  Only 3 million shares changed hands after hours.

This company is very likely to get bought out in next 6 months, but also very well prepared to go it alone.

They doubled revenue from $200M in 2018 to on track for $410M in 2019, with only and indication to treat patients with triglycerides over 500 (which is crazy high and small market.) What came out Friday lowered that figure to 150, and also was suggested to be indicated for diabetics, and stroke patients.

The Oppenheimer analyst raised his price target to....$8??  That's pretty weird

[Cheeks]

The Oppenheimer analyst raised his price target to....$8??  That's pretty weird

Isn’t it at $23 now? 

[Dr. Blackheart]

Isn’t it at $23 now?

Yep...Down over 4%.

[Elonsmusk]

The Oppenheimer analyst raised his price target to....$8??  That's pretty weird

It's is very weird.  He came out with a hit piece about 5 weeks ago with a $7 price target.  Take a look at his track record.  He's a shill that ultimately helps cover shorts, and works to orchestrate price drop.  Oppenheimer is actually loaded up on AMRN institutionally.  Evaluate his price target against other analysts.

I do think yesterday's action was institutions shaking out weak hands to load up more shares for themselves.  This company is ripe to be acquired, or go it alone and show great metrics going forward.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Down almost 12% for the week.  Pump and dump?

[jficke13]

Vascepa is just prescription EPA... ie, fish oil. If you had a tolerance and budget for mass doses (2-4 g of EPA) you could recreate that drug at GNC. While I buy the science and benefit of the treatment, I have some lingering doubts that calling super high dose fish oil a prescription drug is a viable economic model. But, to be honest, I haven't dug too deeply into how they propose to do distribution/pricing, so maybe their play is to try to foist the cost onto he insurance industry?

[Elonsmusk]

Down almost 12% for the week.  Pump and dump?

I bought back in today.  I'd be shocked if this isn't trading at $40 within 12 months, if not bought out sooner.  Weak retail hands sold the last two days.  Some of which have had positions at the $2 level, so can't blame them.  However, the institutions want in, now that product is completely de-risked.

Vascepa is just prescription EPA... ie, fish oil. If you had a tolerance and budget for mass doses (2-4 g of EPA) you could recreate that drug at GNC. While I buy the science and benefit of the treatment, I have some lingering doubts that calling super high dose fish oil a prescription drug is a viable economic model. But, to be honest, I haven't dug too deeply into how they propose to do distribution/pricing, so maybe their play is to try to foist the cost onto he insurance industry?

This will be part of the education process of sales force, and PR staff - as this is common perception.  Vascepa is derived from fish oil, but it is purified, 100% EPA (no DHA).  Taking OTC Fish Oil will NOT reduce your CV risk, and has actually been shown to have negative risk factors.


**Having said all of the above, there of course are no guarantees in investing, yet from my very deep due diligence on this stock/drug, I am quite confident it will be a near and long term winner.**

[Benny B]

I bought back in today.  I'd be shocked if this isn't trading at $40 within 12 months, if not bought out sooner.  Weak retail hands sold the last two days.  Some of which have had positions at the $2 level, so can't blame them.  However, the institutions want in, now that product is completely de-risked.

This will be part of the education process of sales force, and PR staff - as this is common perception.  Vascepa is derived from fish oil, but it is purified, 100% EPA (no DHA).  Taking OTC Fish Oil will NOT reduce your CV risk, and has actually been shown to have negative risk factors.


**Having said all of the above, there of course are no guarantees in investing, yet from my very deep due diligence on this stock/drug, I am quite confident it will be a near and long term winner.**

Especially when you define risk for OTC fish oil differently than you define risk for any prescription CV drug/therapy.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I bought back in today.

Hold on, "back in"?  So after telling up that you had put 75% of your portfolio in this and urging everyone to buy ASAP on Monday morning, you are now claiming that you actually sold?  And therefore, despite what you said here, miraculously avoided the (.75*-.1464) = 10.98% loss of your total portfolio value since the close on Friday?

Weak retail hands sold the last two days.

Including yourself, from what you said above?

From the admittedly limited DD I did, it appears that the new label was narrower than anticipated, and therefore the addressable market and potential revenue smaller than hoped for as well.  It appears to be a classic buy the rumor, sell the news situation, particularly if the news is less than what was anticipated and the run up was huge, as this one was.

However, the institutions want in, now that product is completely de-risked.

And this is based on what information?  Certainly buyers have had ample opportunity to buy in with the more than 14% drop since Friday.

Look, I have no opinion on the long-term prospects for this stock.  It may very well be long-term winner and you will be right, I haven't done enough DD nor do I understand the addressable market or competitors well enough to warrant an opinion.  But pumping the stock, than claiming you actually sold the stock only to buy in lower and coming up with a bunch of rationalizations about why it went down is a recipe for bad investing.  I've made a LOT of investing mistakes, and it is a lot better to figure out what went wrong rather than repeat the disasters.

[Elonsmusk]

Hold on, "back in"?  So after telling up that you had put 75% of your portfolio in this and urging everyone to buy ASAP on Monday morning, you are now claiming that you actually sold?  And therefore, despite what you said here, miraculously avoided the (.75*-.1464) = 10.98% loss of your total portfolio value since the close on Friday?
Including yourself, from what you said above?

From the admittedly limited DD I did, it appears that the new label was narrower than anticipated, and therefore the addressable market and potential revenue smaller than hoped for as well.  It appears to be a classic buy the rumor, sell the news situation, particularly if the news is less than what was anticipated and the run up was huge, as this one was.

And this is based on what information?  Certainly buyers have had ample opportunity to buy in with the more than 14% drop since Friday.

Look, I have no opinion on the long-term prospects for this stock.  It may very well be long-term winner and you will be right, I haven't done enough DD nor do I understand the addressable market or competitors well enough to warrant an opinion.  But pumping the stock, than claiming you actually sold the stock only to buy in lower and coming up with a bunch of rationalizations about why it went down is a recipe for bad investing.  I've made a LOT of investing mistakes, and it is a lot better to figure out what went wrong rather than repeat the disasters.

Clarification.  I bought more today - haven't sold any since beginning to accumulate back in July.  Bought the dip today, just as I have done the past 6 months.  Simple dollar cost averaging. 

Appreciate your sentiments.  The challenge for some in media is to understand the actual science and what the new expanded label does allow for.  They are misinterpreting how broad the label is, as it is confusing to those first reading/following this stock - particularly when not having a medical background (which I don't have either.)

I feel bad the stock has crashed as much as it has since making the post.  I stand firm in my conviction that this will be a big winner, however.  Time will tell.

Regarding the shake out happening, the markets don't always function fairly.  Lots at play here.  There were 45 million shares short as of November 30th.  Many hedge funds will take short positions, knowing they can cover.  This is a prime acquisition target in that the TAM is large, the science is real, side effects nil, patent protected through 2029, and they have a strong balance sheet with ~$500M cash on hand.

Look at trading volume the last two days - way beyond averages, and remember for every share traded has been bought by someone.  So...lots of buyers (my hunch is that it is institutions loading up while covering shorts).  Retail ownership was 52% in this stock.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Clarification.  I bought more today - haven't sold any since beginning to accumulate back in July.  Bought the dip today, just as I have done the past 6 months.  Simple dollar cost averaging. 

Got it. Sorry I misunderstood.

[Elonsmusk]

Got it. Sorry I misunderstood.

No worries.  I'd have interpreted it the same...worded that poorly in my haste.  And, I should point out I very well could be wrong about AMRN.  Your points certainly have merit.  This is a case where I have done a lot of DD, and feel pretty comfortable and plan to hold long term.

[Cheeks]

Hold on, "back in"?  So after telling up that you had put 75% of your portfolio in this and urging everyone to buy ASAP on Monday morning, you are now claiming that you actually sold?  And therefore, despite what you said here, miraculously avoided the (.75*-.1464) = 10.98% loss of your total portfolio value since the close on Friday?
Including yourself, from what you said above?

From the admittedly limited DD I did, it appears that the new label was narrower than anticipated, and therefore the addressable market and potential revenue smaller than hoped for as well.  It appears to be a classic buy the rumor, sell the news situation, particularly if the news is less than what was anticipated and the run up was huge, as this one was.

And this is based on what information?  Certainly buyers have had ample opportunity to buy in with the more than 14% drop since Friday.

Look, I have no opinion on the long-term prospects for this stock.  It may very well be long-term winner and you will be right, I haven't done enough DD nor do I understand the addressable market or competitors well enough to warrant an opinion.  But pumping the stock, than claiming you actually sold the stock only to buy in lower and coming up with a bunch of rationalizations about why it went down is a recipe for bad investing.  I've made a LOT of investing mistakes, and it is a lot better to figure out what went wrong rather than repeat the disasters.

Where does he say he sold anything?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

No worries.  I'd have interpreted it the same...worded that poorly in my haste.  And, I should point out I very well could be wrong about AMRN.  Your points certainly have merit.  This is a case where I have done a lot of DD, and feel pretty comfortable and plan to hold long term.

If you are right, and they expand the indications, you'll have a multi-bag winner, which is what we all live for in investing.  Good luck!

[Elonsmusk]

If you are right, and they expand the indications, you'll have a multi-bag winner, which is what we all live for in investing.  Good luck!

Thanks.  This one apparently will test my patience.  I unfortunately like to trade a bit, and like the action - and have sold out of some major winners the past couple of years.  Went heavy into LULU at $50/share in May of 2017, now at $225.  Progressively sold my position at $75, $100, $125.   Got into SHOP back in January at $152, sold all of it one month later at $210.  It's now at $400. 

So...lessons learned...be patient.  My investment thesis on LULU and SHOP was based on a lot of due diligence and personal experience with both companies. 

Hope AMRN doesn't turn out to be the one where I remain patient, but turns out to be a slow mover.

**Helpful tip in BioTech - google the Baker Brothers - and look at their 13F's.  They have incredible track record investing in BioTech.  They are big in AMRN.**

https://fintel.io/i13f/baker-bros-advisors-lp/2019-09-30-0

Here is a great link to where you can sort their positions by status - new, etc.
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/baker-bros-advisors-llc#tabholdings_tab_link

[WarriorFan]

Anyone know a cost effective way to buy foreign stocks?  My Fidelity account doesn't let me trade on certain exchanges, but I've found a few stocks that come through my filter on foreign exchanges (high dividend yield, sustainable, good management, etc.).

[JWags85]

Interactive Brokers I think

[WarriorFan]

Interactive Brokers I think

Thanks

[Cheeks]

Markets all time record high again

Merry Christmas

Happy Hanukkah

[TSmith34, Inc.]

The attached graph, curtesy of Chuck Carnevale found here https://seekingalpha.com/article/4313396-investing-is-hard-enough-is-how-to-avoid-making-obvious-mistakes?ifp=0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha is one reason I am bullish on CVS.  I think it is one of the rare undervalued stocks here, with FV around $90.  They have made good progress paying down the debt from their merger already (have paid off $8B), and if they keep executing the dividend should resume increases in 2021.