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Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 288260 times)

buckchuckler

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #75 on: November 08, 2019, 09:49:54 AM »
I bought MU for its P/E multiple.

Poor choice, you should buy them for their 3 pt shooting, but sell on their defense. 

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #76 on: November 08, 2019, 09:53:56 AM »
I took advantage yesterday morning of people's fundamental misunderstanding of REITs to buy some AY.  People see the big negative EPS number and don't understand that is pretty much a meaningless number.  Their FAD was up and they increased their dividend so I locked some up with a yield over 7%.  Price bounced back 5% already. This is a replacement for my PEGI, which was bought out (too cheaply IMO).

Good day for CVS, ABBV, and AY so far.

If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #77 on: November 08, 2019, 10:08:55 AM »
Poor choice, you should buy them for their 3 pt shooting, but sell on their defense.

Honestly, that thesis might be played out now, with defense looking undervalued at this point and higher risk of 3 point production concentration shifting the margin drivers. If something goes wrong at the M2N plant, you could see a massive top line dip without a corresponding proportional EBITDA hit you would have expected in the past due to the aforementioned defensive improvements. After the stock took a hit from herd-like selling based on narrative over the summer, it now screens well on advanced metrics and I would be a BUY at these levels.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #78 on: November 08, 2019, 10:27:10 AM »
Honestly, that thesis might be played out now, with defense looking undervalued at this point and higher risk of 3 point production concentration shifting the margin drivers. If something goes wrong at the M2N plant, you could see a massive top line dip without a corresponding proportional EBITDA hit you would have expected in the past due to the aforementioned defensive improvements. After the stock took a hit from herd-like selling based on narrative over the summer, it now screens well on advanced metrics and I would be a BUY at these levels.
Analysts are maintaining a Neutral rating until the 1Q results come out.  Revenues are highly dependent on one customer and some are hoping they diversify their customer base. Talent acquisition has been promising, but they are waiting on one candidate to decide on their employment offer.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

buckchuckler

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #79 on: November 08, 2019, 10:27:57 AM »
Honestly, that thesis might be played out now, with defense looking undervalued at this point and higher risk of 3 point production concentration shifting the margin drivers. If something goes wrong at the M2N plant, you could see a massive top line dip without a corresponding proportional EBITDA hit you would have expected in the past due to the aforementioned defensive improvements. After the stock took a hit from herd-like selling based on narrative over the summer, it now screens well on advanced metrics and I would be a BUY at these levels.

Hmmm.  Very interesting perspective. 

Benny B

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #80 on: November 08, 2019, 11:02:44 AM »
Poor choice, you should buy them for their 3 pt shooting, but sell on their defense.

Buy it, don’t trade it.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #81 on: November 10, 2019, 10:00:57 PM »
I took advantage yesterday morning of people's fundamental misunderstanding of REITs to buy some AY.  People see the big negative EPS number and don't understand that is pretty much a meaningless number.  Their FAD was up and they increased their dividend so I locked some up with a yield over 7%.  Price bounced back 5% already. This is a replacement for my PEGI, which was bought out (too cheaply IMO).

Good day for CVS, ABBV, and AY so far.

Still waiting...ok to admit your opening post was wrong...
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #82 on: November 11, 2019, 07:33:36 AM »
No one is interested in playing your stupid unnatural carnal knowledgeing games.  Go the unnatural carnal knowledge away and don't ruin another thread.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #83 on: November 11, 2019, 09:08:07 AM »
No one is interested in playing your stupid unnatural carnal knowledgeing games.  Go the unnatural carnal knowledge away and don't ruin another thread.

You made an accusation, you were wrong,  if no one was interested, why did you state the falsehood to begin with?  A simple retraction and apology is fine.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #84 on: November 11, 2019, 09:10:16 AM »
You have a choice: you can make posts relevant to investing in this thread or you can be an argumentative dickhead and try to ruin yet another thread.  History tells us which one you'll choose.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #85 on: November 14, 2019, 11:43:11 AM »
My position in CSCO getting hammered today post-earnings.  What they are saying--big slowdown in corporate spending--matches what I am seeing amongst my clients.  Much longer lead times to big deals if they come through at all.  Companies very cautious in their spending.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #86 on: November 14, 2019, 12:06:23 PM »
My position in CSCO getting hammered today post-earnings.  What they are saying--big slowdown in corporate spending--matches what I am seeing amongst my clients.  Much longer lead times to big deals if they come through at all.  Companies very cautious in their spending.

I am hearing that over and over again in earnings calls.

I don't own CSCO. Intrigued at this price point but I really haven't been buying anything lately.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Coleman

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #87 on: November 14, 2019, 01:47:46 PM »
anyone here follow wallstreetbets on reddit? It is hilarious

Benny B

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #88 on: November 15, 2019, 11:38:17 AM »
I bought MU for its P/E multiple. 

Despite my sentiment on cyclicals, I increased my position in MU by 20% this morning, with ultimate goal to double the position over the next few weeks.  The head and shoulders everyone was portending seems to be turning into the "Made 3pt" signal.

Going back to the drop in early March (which includes the early summer Hiroshima), the regression line is still tracking upward at a +30 slope.

I've been long MU for a few years now; before the tariffs, it was on its way to 80... and that was before the buyback was announced.  If the China thing advances beyond #donedeal in the next 12 months (i.e. prior to the election), my guess is that the floodgates are going to open up on MU.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #89 on: November 18, 2019, 08:14:54 AM »
I've looked at Micron a few times over the years but never thoroughly understood their business and where they were in product cycles, so I've always avoided it.  Benny, what do you see as the catalyst for driving additional growth from here? 
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

Benny B

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #90 on: November 19, 2019, 11:45:35 PM »
I've looked at Micron a few times over the years but never thoroughly understood their business and where they were in product cycles, so I've always avoided it.  Benny, what do you see as the catalyst for driving additional growth from here?

Long term: IoT and Level 4 automation.
Short term: End of tariffs.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Jay Bee

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #91 on: November 20, 2019, 09:51:14 AM »
TGT over $125 now. I bought what MU82 called a troubled company well behind the leaders at $52.38... plus a nice dividend over the years. Pretty fun ride

I AM THE STOCK MARKET
Thanks for ruining summer, Canada.

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #92 on: November 20, 2019, 09:53:11 AM »
TGT over $125 now. I bought what MU82 called a troubled company well behind the leaders at $52.38... plus a nice dividend over the years. Pretty fun ride

I AM THE STOCK MARKET

Well done


How many of you are considering pulling back and sitting on the sidelines as we approach some big events in 2020? 

"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Jay Bee

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #93 on: November 20, 2019, 10:14:35 AM »
Well done

How many of you are considering pulling back and sitting on the sidelines as we approach some big events in 2020?

Already have been. To a fault. Thankfully some of my larger holdings (TGT, CMG) have been great, but a lot of cash on the sidelines.
Thanks for ruining summer, Canada.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #94 on: November 20, 2019, 01:04:26 PM »

How many of you are considering pulling back and sitting on the sidelines as we approach some big events in 2020?



I've reduced my equity positions quite a bit over the last few months.

Just wish I had reduced my T position before the past couple of days....

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #95 on: November 20, 2019, 09:23:51 PM »
TGT over $125 now. I bought what MU82 called a troubled company well behind the leaders at $52.38... plus a nice dividend over the years. Pretty fun ride

I AM THE STOCK MARKET

It was a bad call, and I made it elsewhere, too.

I of course wasn't alone. Morningstar, for example, called it a poorly run company with no moat. But I absolutely have been wrong about it, and I congratulate you and others who either bought it cheap, held onto it or both.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

DegenerateDish

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #96 on: November 21, 2019, 08:18:25 AM »
Schwab buying Ameritrade is interesting to say the least.

Cheeks

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #97 on: November 21, 2019, 08:28:40 AM »
Already have been. To a fault. Thankfully some of my larger holdings (TGT, CMG) have been great, but a lot of cash on the sidelines.

Interesting.  I’ve been waiting for when the right time, after watching some tv last night of a bunch of talking bodies, I may start today.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #98 on: November 21, 2019, 08:30:30 AM »
Schwab buying Ameritrade is interesting to say the least.

Do you use either brokerage?

As for the "cash on the sidelines" discussion ... I also have been slowly building my cash reserves. Still about 60% equities.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #99 on: November 21, 2019, 09:10:41 AM »
Do you use either brokerage?

As for the "cash on the sidelines" discussion ... I also have been slowly building my cash reserves. Still about 60% equities.
I, too, have actually been increasing cash but am only at 15%.  Timing the market has never worked for me, but the market risk seems very high to me right now.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.