Investing Thread

[Hards Alumni]

Hards

I would normally agree with you on feeling the effects of the lockdown in the upcoming weeks, but these are crazy times. I believe businesses are already feeling the effects and the consumer is lagging way behind. The entire supply chain mess has been impossible to figure out and I still do not feel the previous issues were 100% baked into cost of goods. I am far from a logistics expert, but containers costing 4-6x times normal cost and taking an extra 30-60 days should have translated into much higher costs than we have seen, IMO. I have accused the Chinese of funny accounting for 20+ years and now I wonder about our accounting in the USA. I guess I have grown very cynical on the topic after dealing with it over the past two years.

No, I think we agree.  When I said 'we', I meant the consumer.

[MU82]

No, not really.  A lot of people want to build a wall, or make people jump through countless hoops to become citizens.  We could and should be doing much more to increase immigration to the US.

Remember when the Irish, Italians, Germans and Poles just showed up at the port and came into the US with nothing but the clothes on their backs and a dream of a better life... and the US gave that to them?  You know, pretty much everyone here at scoop can track a family member that just showed up.  My great great grandfather probably snuck in from Canada.

What's the difference now?  The ones coming over the border for a better life are brown... so now it's a problem.  Makes no sense.

It being a problem makes a lot of sense, Hards. Racism is a scourge in America.

Agree with you about earlier immigration, though you might be romanticizing it a little. It wasn't that easy to get the right to reside in the U.S., and the Irish, Italians, European Jews, Asians and others were scorned, shoehorned into ghettos, mocked and harshly discriminated against for decades. Anti-Semitism and anti-Asian behavior is still disappointingly strong here.

But I totally agree with your overall thesis. We are darn close to full employment right now in America -- we're nearing a point where just about every American resident who wants a job can get a job. However, although minimum wage has effectively gone up substantially, even doubled in a lot of places, we just can't fill those jobs because not enough Americans want them.

One of the big economic effects of the pandemic was the number of late-50s and early-60s people leaving the workplace for good -- millions of people who in 2019 were thinking they'd give it 3 or 5 or 7 more years just decided, "Screw it, I'm retired." We need to replace those people in the workforce, and we don't have enough ready, willing and able Americans to do it.

[Hards Alumni]

Generally, I agree.  But we let those folks in before we treated them poorly.  Right now, we aren't letting them in, and we're caging them and treating them all like criminals.

It's despicable.

[forgetful]

Printing more money fixes inflation how?

Whatever they do will disproportionately impact poor/low income.

Jesmu84 already hit the main point. Inflation is hurting the poor and low income that can't afford to live at the current prices. They need a stimulus.

More money for the poor/low income or even middle class is not driving inflation right now.

Inflation in part is being driven by free money for big business (read firms buying up all real estate driving up home prices, and equivalently in a lot of markets buying up old affordable apartment buildings and replacing them with ones that have double the rent). And inflation is being driven by supply chain issues, leading to big business being able to raise prices to increase profits.

Increasing the Fed rate will probably slow the first component. It will have no effect on the latter. In the meantime, the bottom 50% of the nation will suffer greatly, while the elite relish.

Giving a stimulus to that bottom 50% will not affect inflation.

[tower912]

Generally, I agree.  But we let those folks in before we treated them poorly.  Right now, we aren't letting them in, and we're caging them and treating them all like criminals.

It's despicable.

I have a sign in my basement that says 'Irish need not apply'.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I have a sign in my basement that says 'Irish need not apply'.

The line form Blazing Saddles where the guy says "Ok, Ok, OK, the blacks can stay, but we don't want the Irish."

[Goose]

Speaking of the Irish, it is very funny that I have always had bias against the Irish, yet my four favorite friends are all Irish and I love them like brothers. I have refused to attend Irish Fest, with exception of one of the four being married at Irish Fest, try to avoid Irish bars and count on one hand the number of times I have drank on St. Patrick's Day. In a strange way I feel similar feelings to the Irish that I do for UW alums. Ironically, I really do want to visit Ireland before I die and know I will love it.

I think I have always been jealous of the Irish because my grandparents came from Eastern Euro and our heritage always seemed strange to most people. I am still waiting for a parade for being Lithuanian/Serbian and think it will be a while before I have my day.

[Hards Alumni]

I have a sign in my basement that says 'Irish need not apply'.

I understand.  But you're missing the part where they were allowed off the boats.

And the animus towards the Irish and other white immigrants dissipated rather quickly. 

[Hards Alumni]

Speaking of the Irish, it is very funny that I have always had bias against the Irish, yet my four favorite friends are all Irish and I love them like brothers. I have refused to attend Irish Fest, with exception of one of the four being married at Irish Fest, try to avoid Irish bars and count on one hand the number of times I have drank on St. Patrick's Day. In a strange way I feel similar feelings to the Irish that I do for UW alums. Ironically, I really do want to visit Ireland before I die and know I will love it.

I think I have always been jealous of the Irish because my grandparents came from Eastern Euro and our heritage always seemed strange to most people. I am still waiting for a parade for being Lithuanian/Serbian and think it will be a while before I have my day.

I'm sure the Irish friends you have are jealous of your ability to grow facial hair.

[Hards Alumni]

Jesmu84 already hit the main point. Inflation is hurting the poor and low income that can't afford to live at the current prices. They need a stimulus.

More money for the poor/low income or even middle class is not driving inflation right now.

Inflation in part is being driven by free money for big business (read firms buying up all real estate driving up home prices, and equivalently in a lot of markets buying up old affordable apartment buildings and replacing them with ones that have double the rent). And inflation is being driven by supply chain issues, leading to big business being able to raise prices to increase profits.

Increasing the Fed rate will probably slow the first component. It will have no effect on the latter. In the meantime, the bottom 50% of the nation will suffer greatly, while the elite relish.

Giving a stimulus to that bottom 50% will not affect inflation.

But it will.  More dollary doos printed = inflation.  One way or another.

[Goose]

Hards

I am on par with facial hair with my Irish friends. I do tan easier

[Hards Alumni]

Hards

I am on par with facial hair with my Irish friends. I do tan easier

My uncle is a Milwaukee Serb and has a majestic mustachio.  Though he is starting to lose a bit of the hair on top of his dome.

[MuggsyB]

No, not really.  A lot of people want to build a wall, or make people jump through countless hoops to become citizens.  We could and should be doing much more to increase immigration to the US.

Remember when the Irish, Italians, Germans and Poles just showed up at the port and came into the US with nothing but the clothes on their backs and a dream of a better life... and the US gave that to them?  You know, pretty much everyone here at scoop can track a family member that just showed up.  My great great grandfather probably snuck in from Canada.

What's the difference now?  The ones coming over the border for a better life are brown... so now it's a problem.  Makes no sense.

So we should just allow it and not worry about illegal immigration?   That's your take?  I think more people than not are generally for legal immigration and making it easier to become American citizens.  Especially those that have been here for years.

[tower912]

I understand.  But you're missing the part where they were allowed off the boats.

And the animus towards the Irish and other white immigrants dissipated rather quickly.

I'm not missing it at all.   I agree with your position, both from an economic and humanitarian perspective. 
    My point is that America has long hated immigrants.     Even though the shining city on the hill image and the Statue of Liberty say otherwise.   The dream of America from afar is to leave behind political and economic oppression for opportunity.    Immigrants have always had to learn new a new language, a new culture, had to make their way in a strange land.   America has always tried to resist them.
    The current version of Xenophbic anti-immigration is as wrongheaded as ever.   America has unfilled jobs.  Supply chains that are only going to be loosened by inexpensive labor.    There is only one viable source of inexpensive labor right now.   
   Simple logic.

[Goose]

Hards

I am having cocktails with Milwaukee Serbian royalty today, what is your uncles last name? If he is active at St. Sava's my friend will know him.

[The Sultan]

So we should just allow it and not worry about illegal immigration?   That's your take?  I think more people than not are generally for legal immigration and making it easier to become American citizens.  Especially those that have been here for years.

I would be perfectly happy with increased border security in return for allowing additional legal immigration, and giving people who aren't citizens a path to citizenship that doesn't require them to leave the country and "go to the back of the line" or some such nonsense. But tower is right - a lot of people wouldn't like that. 

Countries that allow immigration have historically been way more prosperous than those who don't.  It would help our economy and our society tremendously.

[Hards Alumni]

So we should just allow it and not worry about illegal immigration?   That's your take?  I think more people than not are generally for legal immigration and making it easier to become American citizens.  Especially those that have been here for years.

Generally speaking, yes.  People who show up on the border should be allowed in and be required to report to an immigration official every six months.  The US govt. should try to place immigrants in jobs, or direct them to job opportunities.  Much like a system that we use for people who are transitioning out of the penal system on parole.  If they're arrested for a violent crime at ANY point in their first five years in the country they should be deported. 

We need to do a better job of getting people to be Americans instead of putting up barriers and having people live for a decade in limbo.

I agree with you that more people generally want more legal immigration, yet nothing is ever done about it.

[MuggsyB]

Generally speaking, yes.  People who show up on the border should be allowed in and be required to report to an immigration official every six months.  The US govt. should try to place immigrants in jobs, or direct them to job opportunities.  Much like a system that we use for people who are transitioning out of the penal system on parole.  If they're arrested for a violent crime at ANY point in their first five years in the country they should be deported. 

We need to do a better job of getting people to be Americans instead of putting up barriers and having people live for a decade in limbo.

I agree with you that more people generally want more legal immigration, yet nothing is ever done about it.

My mom came to the United States in 1978 from Ireland and became a citizen in 1990.  I have a friend from Indonesia that still cannot get citizenship and  he's been here 18 yrs.  The system has been a problem for a long time.  It sounds like what you're suggesting is essentially an open border and a 5 yr window to become a productive American citizen..  So, how many people would we need at the Southern Border to vet anyone crossing? 

[MuggsyB]

I would be perfectly happy with increased border security in return for allowing additional legal immigration, and giving people who aren't citizens a path to citizenship that doesn't require them to leave the country and "go to the back of the line" or some such nonsense. But tower is right - a lot of people wouldn't like that. 

Countries that allow immigration have historically been way more prosperous than those who don't.  It would help our economy and our society tremendously.

True.  Which countries have been more prosperous than us that have allowed immigration historically or more recently?

[MuggsyB]

Fed with a .5% raise. Mr. Market seems to be happy there wasn't a more aggressive surprise.

Apparently the market is not thrilled today. 

[Hards Alumni]

My mom came to the United States in 1978 from Ireland and became a citizen in 1990.  I have a friend from Indonesia that still cannot get citizenship and  he's been here 18 yrs.  The system has been a problem for a long time.  It sounds like what you're suggesting is essentially an open border and a 5 yr window to become a productive American citizen..  So, how many people would we need at the Southern Border to vet anyone crossing?

Enough to manage the people who are entering.  If need be, supplement the Border Patrol with National Guard members until more can be hired.

Vetting process should be VERY simple and straight forward.

18 years to become a citizen is flat out wrong of our country to do.

[The Sultan]

True.  Which countries have been more prosperous than us that have allowed immigration historically or more recently?

I don't know if they are "more prosperous," but countries with migrants making up more than 20% of the population that are similar to the US (well developed, diverse economies) include Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Sweden.  Countries with similar percentages to the United States (about 15%) include Germany, the UK and bunch of western European countries.

[Hards Alumni]

I don't know if they are "more prosperous," but countries with migrants making up more than 20% of the population that are similar to the US (well developed, diverse economies) include Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Sweden.  Countries with similar percentages to the United States (about 15%) include Germany, the UK and bunch of western European countries.

I think China only lets in a couple of thousand people a year.  They're making an enormous mistake.

[ATL MU Warrior]

My mom came to the United States in 1978 from Ireland and became a citizen in 1990.  I have a friend from Indonesia that still cannot get citizenship and  he's been here 18 yrs.  The system has been a problem for a long time.  It sounds like what you're suggesting is essentially an open border and a 5 yr window to become a productive American citizen..  So, how many people would we need at the Southern Border to vet anyone crossing?

That wasn't what he was suggesting at all. 

[MU82]

Generally, I agree.  But we let those folks in before we treated them poorly.  Right now, we aren't letting them in, and we're caging them and treating them all like criminals.

It's despicable.

Yessir.

Apparently the market is not thrilled today. 

Classic snap-back. Rollercoaster market has been here for a bit now.