More conference realignment talk

[Coleman]

Do you think the Big 12 is starting to have buyer's remorse with the quality/quantity of their 2023 additions (BYU, UCF, Cinci, & Houston) compared to what's likely available in the short term (Arizona, ASU, Cal, Stanford, Utah) and long term (SEC & B1G likely can't gobble up all the good ACC assets)?

Hindsight's obviously 20/20 and the Big 12 was teetering a bit after the Texas & Oklahoma departure announcement, but there was no/is no foreseeable future competition to poach Arizona, ASU, Cal, Stanford, & Utah.  Grant it, poaching the PAC12 got a lot easier in 2022 with the B1G grabbing the best assets in USC & UCLA, and now the possibility of grabbing the next best in Oregon & Washington.  Splitting the Big 12's revenue pie with some of those 2023 additions moving forward has to come with a pinch of regret.  If the B1G & SEC do raid the ACC sometime between now & 2036 and each grow to 20 teams (say grabbing FSU, UNC, UVA, Clemson, ND, & Miami), there are still some good middle-tier ACC assets (VT, Duke, GT, NCST) that would be open to a Big 12 life raft.

I guess what I'm asking is, if you were the Big 12 after the Texas & Oklahoma departure announcement, how would you rank the list below of realistic assets to pursue/wait for?

1. Arizona
2. Colorado
3. Cal
4. Stanford
5. Potential ACC Team to be named later
6. Potential ACC Team to be named later
7. BYU
8. UCF
9. ASU
10. Utah
11. Houston
12. Cinci

I doubt they regret anything with the position they are in now.

If they don't pick up BYU, Houston, Cinci, UCF they are in a very weak position with 8 teams and we are talking about them getting raided instead of the PAC12. They needed numbers, took the best teams available at the time, and survived to pick up better teams like Colorado down the road. They made the absolute best of a bad situation and are now the 3rd best conference in the country.

[MU82]

PAC 12 died when UCLA and USC left.

Yessir. Talk about a doomsday bomb.

The only ACC schools worth poaching from  an eyeballs perspective are Duke and UNC in basketball, which doesn't materially drive economics of these deals ; and Clemson in Football.

UNC is a good property, period. Decent to very good at football most years, and an outstanding academic profile (when they aren't pushing athletes into pretend courses).

Make no mistake,  ESPN and FOX want the P12 and ACC dead.

Yep.

[GoldenWarrior11]

All the PAC schools seem to have scheduled immediate board meetings tonight. 

[lawdog77]

Yessir. Talk about a doomsday bomb.

UNC is a good property, period. Decent to very good at football most years, and an outstanding academic profile (when they aren't pushing athletes into pretend courses).

Yep.

I'd quibble with this. I would say mediocre to below .500 most years.
In the past 10 years, they have had 4 losing seasons, with only one double digit win season

Your overall point stands, though, they are a good property.

[MuggsyB]

All the PAC schools seem to have scheduled immediate board meetings tonight.

YIKES.

[WhiteTrash]

All the PAC schools seem to have scheduled immediate board meetings tonight.

Read AZ voted into Big12. AZ just need to accept.  I believe these conferences don't vote unless they know 100% it will be accepted.

[MuggsyB]

So essentially there is no longer a P-12?

[WhiteTrash]

So essentially there is no longer a P-12?

Sad to say but yes. They would have to look at keeping the remaining members and add schools like Tulsa and Memphis. I don't think Apple will pay $20 mil a year for that.

[WeAreMarquette96]

Sad to say but yes. They would have to look at keeping the remaining members and add schools like Tulsa and Memphis. I don't think Apple will pay $20 mil a year for that.

Could see the few PAC schools that will be left behind in this process merging with the MWC, and then maybe from there merge with left behind ACC schools. Then maybe add some of the top option AAC teams (Memphis, USF, Tulane, or whoever else is left at the top of that conference in 5ish years) once that happens to create their own 20th team nationwide conference. Feels like there will be enough teams for 4 20 team mega football conferences (SEC, Big 12, Big 10, new conference) plus the Big East. Maybe those conferences then split the Big East teams as non-football additions. Who knows though this is just my brain spitballing

[GoldenWarrior11]

With the destruction of the PAC nearly complete, the ACC is on the clock.

[MU82]

So essentially there is no longer a P-12?

Conference of ... Crickets

[Goatherder]

Do you think the Big 12 is starting to have buyer's remorse with the quality/quantity of their 2023 additions (BYU, UCF, Cinci, & Houston) compared to what's likely available in the short term (Arizona, ASU, Cal, Stanford, Utah) and long term (SEC & B1G likely can't gobble up all the good ACC assets)?

Hindsight's obviously 20/20 and the Big 12 was teetering a bit after the Texas & Oklahoma departure announcement, but there was no/is no foreseeable future competition to poach Arizona, ASU, Cal, Stanford, & Utah.  Grant it, poaching the PAC12 got a lot easier in 2022 with the B1G grabbing the best assets in USC & UCLA, and now the possibility of grabbing the next best in Oregon & Washington.  Splitting the Big 12's revenue pie with some of those 2023 additions moving forward has to come with a pinch of regret.  If the B1G & SEC do raid the ACC sometime between now & 2036 and each grow to 20 teams (say grabbing FSU, UNC, UVA, Clemson, ND, & Miami), there are still some good middle-tier ACC assets (VT, Duke, GT, NCST) that would be open to a Big 12 life raft.
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I guess what I'm asking is, if you were the Big 12 after the Texas & Oklahoma departure announcement, how would you rank the list below of realistic assets to pursue/wait for?

1. Arizona
2. Colorado
3. Cal
4. Stanford
5. Potential ACC Team to be named later
6. Potential ACC Team to be named later
7. BYU
8. UCF
9. ASU
10. Utah
11. Houston
12. Cinci

No.  The B12 has handled things pretty well, which is why they now have Colorado.  They will likely get Arizona, ASU and Utah.  The pickups from last year were not bad ones.  Houston has been an on and off major conference team for decades, but the potential to be a major conference team is there.  The first big syndicated NCAA basketball game was between #1 UCLA and #2 Houston back in the John Wooden days.  They were late arrivals but strong members of the SWC before it broke up, with some excellent basketball teams (Phi Slamma Jamma) and a football team that went to the Cotton Bowl a few times.  Since the SWC disolved, they have ha their problems, but in a solid major conference, they can be a factor and they are in a great market.

BYU dropped out of the Mountain West to try and be the Mormon Notre Dame.  That did not go so good, but they do have a built-in fan base wherever they go and they have plenty of stability.  They are going nowhere and are always going to have all the resources they need.   Cincinatti is an established state university that has had success in basketball and some in football.  Not the most desireable pick maybe, but not bad. 

UCF may look like a poor choice somewhere down the road.  They may not be able to keep up their football success, but every conference wants a football team in Florida, which is why USF got into the Big East, where it otherwise did not belong. If UCF does not maintain their success, they can turn out to be just a second or third- tier state school with a medicore academic reputation.  But they are in Orlando.  The other one that may look really weird in a few years is West Virginia, which is nowehre near nobody and has no natural rivals.  Having them in the same conference with Arizona and Utah is kind of ridiculous.  But at the time, taking them did not seem to be a bad idea.  They were good in football and basketball and were not that crazy far from the heart of the conference, and at the time, the B12 desperately needed a tenth team. 

So maybe if/when the Pac 12 or ACC collapse, the B-12 might look back and think they could have gotten one school or another, but who is dramatically better?  In order to justify going all the way to the East coast, they would have to get a team that moves the needle, and the possibilities there are more likely to look for the SEC or Big Ten.  Are Cal and Stanford better than Houston, Cinci and UCF?  Academically, no question.  Athletically?  Not so clear.  Maybe not. 

[Uncle Rico]

So much for the sanctity of the Rose Bowl the Big Ten cried about for decades

[brewcity77]

I'm wondering if the Pac-12 falling apart might be good for the ACC. I think eventually the ACC will go down, but they need 8 votes to dissolve the contract and get out of the Grant of Rights. I imagine the Big 12 is full for now. Seems like the Big 10 has 2 spots left and the SEC has 4. Not sure 6 is enough to get them to dissolve.

Also trying to figure out how to rank the remaining high major property values, less on a strict ranking and more by bundle. Maybe something like...

Tier 1: Notre Dame, UNC, Virginia, Florida State, Clemson
Tier 2: Georgia Tech, Stanford, Miami, Cal, Virginia Tech
Tier 3: Pittsburgh, Duke, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, UConn
Tier 4: Boston College, Wake Forest, Oregon State, Washington State

The bold text teams are AAU members. I'm guessing that Tier 1 will get an invite regardless. I think at least one Tier 2 school will get an invite, and if all 3 leagues go to 20, it's likely all the Tier 1&2, though some of those Tier 3 will be pushing hard (I give Pitt & Duke the edge with AAU membership).

While recruiting territories might matter, I don't think media markets are as important as they once were, which is why Syracuse isn't higher up. That and terrible football. The only question is what the remains do. Say all the Tier 1&2 school get invites. Oregon State and Washington State likely merge with the Mountain West under the Pac-12 name.

What happens when Pitt, Duke, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, BC, and Wake are the 7 left out? Do they try to reform the ACC getting the best deal they can (which will be crappy, even if they can add the best American schools) or do they let the conference dissolve?

This is where opportunity lies. First, I think Val should be in Spokane today with terms for Gonzaga. Yormark played his hand and lost. The B12 went to 16 without Gonzaga or UConn, which means if Gonzaga wants a seat at the big boy basketball table, it's Big East or bust. Second, if the ACC does fall apart, can you maybe pick off some of those ACC leftovers with a deal like UConn has? If this league could ultimately add Gonzaga, Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pitt, that remain a top-tier basketball league.

[Uncle Rico]

Now rumblings the Pac-12 or whatever zombie version is left might survive as Dan Wetzel of Yahoo and Pat Forde of SI report Oregon/Washington to Big Ten has lost "steam" and a GOR and deal with Apple might be in the offing

[MuggsyB]

Now rumblings the Pac-12 or whatever zombie version is left might survive as Dan Wetzel of Yahoo and Pat Forde of SI report Oregon/Washington to Big Ten has lost "steam" and a GOR and deal with Apple might be in the offing

WIll people buy Apple TV to watch P--12 football and basketball?  I can't see it.

[Uncle Rico]

WIll people buy Apple TV to watch P--12 football and basketball?  I can't see it.

We may find out but within a half hour, it could all change again

[The Sultan]

Now rumblings the Pac-12 or whatever zombie version is left might survive as Dan Wetzel of Yahoo and Pat Forde of SI report Oregon/Washington to Big Ten has lost "steam" and a GOR and deal with Apple might be in the offing

My guess is that the Big Ten offered them membership, but at a steep discount. There really is no rush to get them in the fold right now from their POV.

WIll people buy Apple TV to watch P--12 football and basketball?  I can't see it.

If I were a fan of one of the P12 fans, I most certainly would.  The problem is the casual fan who will turn on anything on a Saturday night. They aren't getting a subscription.

[Scoop Snoop]

New slogan for Bill Walton-Conference of Chumpions.

[Uncle Rico]

Nevermind.  Chaos is back

[The Sultan]

Washington and Oregon are going to the Big Ten.  Looks like Arizona, ASU and Utah will be heading to the Big 12.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-big-ten-adding-oregon-and-washington-leaving-pac-12-with-uncertain-future-163742534.html

[Uncle Rico]

Washington and Oregon are going to the Big Ten.  Looks like Arizona, ASU and Utah will be heading to the Big 12.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-big-ten-adding-oregon-and-washington-leaving-pac-12-with-uncertain-future-163742534.html

The Big Ten sucks

[Herman Cain]

I'm wondering if the Pac-12 falling apart might be good for the ACC. I think eventually the ACC will go down, but they need 8 votes to dissolve the contract and get out of the Grant of Rights. I imagine the Big 12 is full for now. Seems like the Big 10 has 2 spots left and the SEC has 4. Not sure 6 is enough to get them to dissolve.

Also trying to figure out how to rank the remaining high major property values, less on a strict ranking and more by bundle. Maybe something like...

Tier 1: Notre Dame, UNC, Virginia, Florida State, Clemson
Tier 2: Georgia Tech, Stanford, Miami, Cal, Virginia Tech
Tier 3: Pittsburgh, Duke, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, UConn
Tier 4: Boston College, Wake Forest, Oregon State, Washington State

The bold text teams are AAU members. I'm guessing that Tier 1 will get an invite regardless. I think at least one Tier 2 school will get an invite, and if all 3 leagues go to 20, it's likely all the Tier 1&2, though some of those Tier 3 will be pushing hard (I give Pitt & Duke the edge with AAU membership).

While recruiting territories might matter, I don't think media markets are as important as they once were, which is why Syracuse isn't higher up. That and terrible football. The only question is what the remains do. Say all the Tier 1&2 school get invites. Oregon State and Washington State likely merge with the Mountain West under the Pac-12 name.

What happens when Pitt, Duke, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, BC, and Wake are the 7 left out? Do they try to reform the ACC getting the best deal they can (which will be crappy, even if they can add the best American schools) or do they let the conference dissolve?

This is where opportunity lies. First, I think Val should be in Spokane today with terms for Gonzaga. Yormark played his hand and lost. The B12 went to 16 without Gonzaga or UConn, which means if Gonzaga wants a seat at the big boy basketball table, it's Big East or bust. Second, if the ACC does fall apart, can you maybe pick off some of those ACC leftovers with a deal like UConn has? If this league could ultimately add Gonzaga, Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pitt, that remain a top-tier basketball league.

The Pac-12 and ACC cases are much different.

When it became clear that the Pac-12 was unable to get a media contract large enough to satisfy schools with Big Football ambitions, it became a free for all since their G of R was expiring soon. USC and UCLA jumped shipped and it was only a matter of time till they got to where they are now.

ACC , on the other hand,  has an ironclad G of R until 2023. The "Have Nots" in their conference are ecstatic over their media rights deal with ESPN and its ACC Network. The "Perceived Haves" have greater football ambitions and see the gap between ACC and SEC/Big 10 growing.

There is an established ACC exit  procedure equal to 3 years of distributions, or approximately $120 million.

We have seen the Trustees as Florida State jawboning about the need to leave the ACC, which means they are essentially  trying to raise the funds needed. Likely some of the others are exploring that on a less public basis.

Also a strange ACC scenario where if several leave, the remaining Have Nots would essentially increase the frequency of their games with Notre Dame under the terms of that subset of their agreement . ND obligated to play 5 ACC games a year .

[Dish]

I'll never forget where I was for the three hours this morning when the PAC 12 got off life support only to drop dead.

[Uncle Rico]

I'll never forget where I was for the three hours this morning when the PAC 12 got off life support only to drop dead.

In a lot of ways, they're the Jesus of the modern era for sports fans then