More conference realignment talk

[Herman Cain]

It is my understanding that if enough schools join in, they could vote to dissolve the ACC thereby ending the GoR. If this is true, I think after the PAC 12 is thoroughly demolished, the Power 3 will coordinate and make enough offers between the three of them to ACC schools to secure the votes necessary to dissolve the ACC.

Dissolving a corporation does not extinguish the underlying obligations and liabilities .  Typically contracts are very tight and cover successors and assigns etc The ACC GofR lasts till 2036 so very cost prohibitive to escape even on a negotiated basis. This is why the ACC has gone to asymmetrical profit sharing to placate certain schools in the meantime.

[forgetful]

Dissolving a corporation does not extinguish the underlying obligations and liabilities .  Typically contracts are very tight and cover successors and assigns etc The ACC GofR lasts till 2036 so very cost prohibitive to escape even on a negotiated basis. This is why the ACC has gone to asymmetrical profit sharing to placate certain schools in the meantime.

The GOR deal is between the schools and the conference. The ACC schools could vote tomorrow to end the GOR agreement, but it would require 8 schools to agree.

The moment that GOR deal is gone, schools are leaving.

So until there is 8 pretty much assured spots at the new conference table, it isn't happening.

Right now, I'm not sure there are 8 guaranteed spots for ACC teams, so there is some very minor stability.

But some schools like FSU, may be willing to fork out the $150M to get out of the ACC if they are guaranteed a full share partner in the SEC or Big10.

[Coleman]

And I'm not sure how much "California" you grab with Cal and Stanford.

I mean that's the Bay Area between the two of them, which isn't nothing.

[Coleman]

Time for the Big East to think big

For any of this to have any real impact on the Big East, you need the ACC to implode, which is a little bit further down the line than the Pac12, if it happens at all.

If that does happen I think schools like Boston College, Syracuse and Wake Forest will certainly be possible pickups for the Big East.

Somewhat related, I wonder if this realignment has anyone rethinking the plausibility of adding Gonzaga to the Big East. The B1G has Rutgers, UCLA, and USC making transcontinental trips. If Gonzaga is getting $9 or $10 million annually from a Big East TV deal (expected amount per team with the new deal with Fox in 2025), they could make the travel work financially.

[tower912]

You forgot Duke.   

[Coleman]

You forgot Duke.

I think Duke will get picked up.

Some disagree with me. But I don't think we land Duke.

Bear in mind some of these conferences may expand to as many as 24 teams. There will be some strays, but not that many. It is going to be the real bottom of the barrel left from the ACC. Which begs the question....will we even want the BCs of the world? They will be there for the picking but I think the Big East should also be a little choosey. We would be fine with 12 teams. I'm fine with picking up a program that would add value, but we don't need all of the ACC's backwash either. Maybe Syracuse, because of the history and rivalry in the Big East. But Wake? BC? I'm not sure.

[Uncle Rico]

I mean that's the Bay Area between the two of them, which isn't nothing.

Not sure how much the Bay Area actually cares about college athletics.  I suppose an argument can be made similar to the Big 10's argument adding Rutgers and Maryland was about the amount of alumni in those areas.  I have no idea if that's the case with the Bay Area, too.

Stanford and Cal are Big Ten or bust IMO anyway

[WhiteTrash]

I think Duke will get picked up.

Some disagree with me. But I don't think we land Duke.

I don't see any football schools coming to the BE, unless the BE returns to a split football / basketball setup (yuck). There will be enough football schools to form an all sports conference. AAC on steroids. Maybe including UCONN.

I don't see Duke in the SEC or Big10, ever.

[forgetful]

You forgot Duke.

Personally, I think Duke gets a B12 invite. The B12 highly values basketball, and it gets them a marquee name.

That's also why I slated Louisville to the B12.

Those "extra 2 seats at the table" for the B12 I think go to a California school, and Duke, but Duke to the B12 sounds so weird to me.

[The Sultan]

The PAC 12 will be dead by Friday.

[Uncle Rico]

I think Duke will get picked up.

Some disagree with me. But I don't think we land Duke.

Bear in mind some of these conferences may expand to as many as 24 teams. There will be some strays, but not that many. It is going to be the real bottom of the barrel left from the ACC. Which begs the question....will we even want the BCs of the world? They will be there for the picking but I think the Big East should also be a little choosey. We would be fine with 12 teams. I'm fine with picking up a program that would add value, but we don't need all of the ACC's backwash either. Maybe Syracuse, because of the history and rivalry in the Big East. But Wake? BC? I'm not sure.

I think whatever is left from the pending ACC implosion ends up in the Big XII and why UConn will be there sooner than later.

Syracuse, BC, Pitt, NC State, VA Tech and Louisville, Wake,maybe Georgia Tech, would go along with Cincinnati, UCF and West Virginia nicely.

I'd still wager Big Ten adding UNC, Virginia, Georgia Tech (Atlanta and Georgia market) & pushing hard for a Florida school.  Maybe it's just UNC and UVA if they add Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal

Also believe FSU, Clemson & Miami end up in the SEC and they take Duke to make it 20.

[The Sultan]

Personally, I think Duke gets a B12 invite. The B12 highly values basketball, and it gets them a marquee name.

That's also why I slated Louisville to the B12.

Those "extra 2 seats at the table" for the B12 I think go to a California school, and Duke, but Duke to the B12 sounds so weird to me.

Duke won't get a B12 invite. The UConn flirtation was a charade to create urgency for the Arizona schools and Utah.

[PointWarrior]

The PAC 12 will be dead by Friday.

PAC 12 died when UCLA and USC left. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Dissolving a corporation does not extinguish the underlying obligations and liabilities .  Typically contracts are very tight and cover successors and assigns etc The ACC GofR lasts till 2036 so very cost prohibitive to escape even on a negotiated basis. This is why the ACC has gone to asymmetrical profit sharing to placate certain schools in the meantime.

The GoR is a contact between the schools and the conference,  no one else. If the conference no longer exists who can enforce the GoR?

As for the television contracts, I promise you that ESPN will happily let them ouy of any obligations. They are actively incentivizing the Power 3 to pach from the ACC.

As soon as enough ACC schools get Power 3 invites,  the ACC is doomed.

[cven7]

Do you think the Big 12 is starting to have buyer's remorse with the quality/quantity of their 2023 additions (BYU, UCF, Cinci, & Houston) compared to what's likely available in the short term (Arizona, ASU, Cal, Stanford, Utah) and long term (SEC & B1G likely can't gobble up all the good ACC assets)?

Hindsight's obviously 20/20 and the Big 12 was teetering a bit after the Texas & Oklahoma departure announcement, but there was no/is no foreseeable future competition to poach Arizona, ASU, Cal, Stanford, & Utah.  Grant it, poaching the PAC12 got a lot easier in 2022 with the B1G grabbing the best assets in USC & UCLA, and now the possibility of grabbing the next best in Oregon & Washington.  Splitting the Big 12's revenue pie with some of those 2023 additions moving forward has to come with a pinch of regret.  If the B1G & SEC do raid the ACC sometime between now & 2036 and each grow to 20 teams (say grabbing FSU, UNC, UVA, Clemson, ND, & Miami), there are still some good middle-tier ACC assets (VT, Duke, GT, NCST) that would be open to a Big 12 life raft.

I guess what I'm asking is, if you were the Big 12 after the Texas & Oklahoma departure announcement, how would you rank the list below of realistic assets to pursue/wait for?

1. Arizona
2. Colorado
3. Cal
4. Stanford
5. Potential ACC Team to be named later
6. Potential ACC Team to be named later
7. BYU
8. UCF
9. ASU
10. Utah
11. Houston
12. Cinci

[Herman Cain]

The GoR is a contact between the schools and the conference,  no one else. If the conference no longer exists who can enforce the GoR?

As for the television contracts, I promise you that ESPN will happily let them out of any obligations. They are actively incentivizing the Power 3 to pach from the ACC.

As soon as enough ACC schools get Power 3 invites,  the ACC is doomed.

ESPN relied on the GoR in making its media rights contract with ACC. That is why there are big penalties and large negotiated payments for release when a school leaves.  Makes no business sense for ESPN to go from paying 40 million a year for ACC schools to double that in another conference they have rights to. No network willingly wants to increase their cost of content.  ESPN, and their ACC network, loves the ACC status quo.   

The only ACC schools worth poaching from  an eyeballs perspective are Duke and UNC in basketball, which doesn't materially drive economics of these deals ; and Clemson in Football. The current schools in the poaching conferences don't want to dilute their present compensation.

It is possible that Florida State has some big donor to put up the 9 figures needed to escape . Not sure how many of the others are willing to come up with the coin.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

ESPN relied on the GoR in making its media rights contract with ACC. That is why there are big penalties and large negotiated payments for release when a school leaves.  Makes no business sense for ESPN to go from paying 40 million a year for ACC schools to double that in another conference they have rights to. No network willingly wants to increase their cost of content.  ESPN, and their ACC network, loves the ACC status quo.   

The only ACC schools worth poaching from  an eyeballs perspective are Duke and UNC in basketball, which doesn't materially drive economics of these deals ; and Clemson in Football. The current schools in the poaching conferences don't want to dilute their present compensation.

It is possible that Florida State has some big donor to put up the 9 figures needed to escape . Not sure how many of the others are willing to come up with the coin.

So dissolving the ACC would end the GoR.

All of what your wrote is exactly why ESPN is pushing to kill the ACC. They can consolidate the few schools worth paying for under one of their other properties and then offer the leftovers an AAC level contract. This would save them tens of millions.

If ESPN isn't trying to kill the ACC, why has it offered to automatically add 20 million a year to the Big 12s contact if they poach another P5 school? If the liked the status quo, they wouldn't be incentivizing the B12 to poach ACC teams.

[Tyler COLEk]

So dissolving the ACC would end the GoR.

All of what your wrote is exactly why ESPN is pushing to kill the ACC. They can consolidate the few schools worth paying for under one of their other properties and then offer the leftovers an AAC level contract. This would save them tens of millions.

If ESPN isn't trying to kill the ACC, why has it offered to automatically add 20 million a year to the Big 12s contact if they poach another P5 school? If the liked the status quo, they wouldn't be incentivizing the B12 to poach ACC teams.

I'm not disagreeing that ESPN is comfortable with the Big 12 adding ACC teams, but you could argue that it was the Big 12 who pushed to include that clause in the deal.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm not disagreeing that ESPN is comfortable with the Big 12 adding ACC teams, but you could argue that it was the Big 12 who pushed to include that clause in the deal.

FOX is offering $11 million (what they pay for their share of B12 rights). This is not included in their contract,  just something that's been offered.

Make no mistake,  ESPN and FOX want the P12 and ACC dead.

[Uncle Rico]

Do you think the Big 12 is starting to have buyer's remorse with the quality/quantity of their 2023 additions (BYU, UCF, Cinci, & Houston) compared to what's likely available in the short term (Arizona, ASU, Cal, Stanford, Utah) and long term (SEC & B1G likely can't gobble up all the good ACC assets)?

Hindsight's obviously 20/20 and the Big 12 was teetering a bit after the Texas & Oklahoma departure announcement, but there was no/is no foreseeable future competition to poach Arizona, ASU, Cal, Stanford, & Utah.  Grant it, poaching the PAC12 got a lot easier in 2022 with the B1G grabbing the best assets in USC & UCLA, and now the possibility of grabbing the next best in Oregon & Washington.  Splitting the Big 12's revenue pie with some of those 2023 additions moving forward has to come with a pinch of regret.  If the B1G & SEC do raid the ACC sometime between now & 2036 and each grow to 20 teams (say grabbing FSU, UNC, UVA, Clemson, ND, & Miami), there are still some good middle-tier ACC assets (VT, Duke, GT, NCST) that would be open to a Big 12 life raft.

I guess what I'm asking is, if you were the Big 12 after the Texas & Oklahoma departure announcement, how would you rank the list below of realistic assets to pursue/wait for?

1. Arizona
2. Colorado
3. Cal
4. Stanford
5. Potential ACC Team to be named later
6. Potential ACC Team to be named later
7. BYU
8. UCF
9. ASU
10. Utah
11. Houston
12. Cinci

No.  BYU is a good brand and UCF gets you into Florida, fwiw.  The top Floridia schools will be either SEC or Big Ten bound.  As for Cincinnati and Houston, well, there's probably some regret

[WhiteTrash]

No.  BYU is a good brand and UCF gets you into Florida, fwiw.  The top Floridia schools will be either SEC or Big Ten bound.  As for Cincinnati and Houston, well, there's probably some regret

Also, big picture it is possible without those four additions at that time, the Big 12 does not get the big TV deal, falls apart and the PAC12 and ACC are sitting pretty right now. I think the Big12 is more than happy with those schools.

Also, Cinci has proven itself a more than capable football school in the past 15 years, starting with Brian Kelly on. I haven't seen FSU, TA&M, Wisconsin, Penn State, etc in the CFP, but I have seen Cinci.

[The Sultan]

Do you think the Big 12 is starting to have buyer's remorse with the quality/quantity of their 2023 additions (BYU, UCF, Cinci, & Houston) compared to what's likely available in the short term (Arizona, ASU, Cal, Stanford, Utah) and long term (SEC & B1G likely can't gobble up all the good ACC assets)?

Hindsight's obviously 20/20 and the Big 12 was teetering a bit after the Texas & Oklahoma departure announcement, but there was no/is no foreseeable future competition to poach Arizona, ASU, Cal, Stanford, & Utah.  Grant it, poaching the PAC12 got a lot easier in 2022 with the B1G grabbing the best assets in USC & UCLA, and now the possibility of grabbing the next best in Oregon & Washington.  Splitting the Big 12's revenue pie with some of those 2023 additions moving forward has to come with a pinch of regret.  If the B1G & SEC do raid the ACC sometime between now & 2036 and each grow to 20 teams (say grabbing FSU, UNC, UVA, Clemson, ND, & Miami), there are still some good middle-tier ACC assets (VT, Duke, GT, NCST) that would be open to a Big 12 life raft.

I guess what I'm asking is, if you were the Big 12 after the Texas & Oklahoma departure announcement, how would you rank the list below of realistic assets to pursue/wait for?

1. Arizona
2. Colorado
3. Cal
4. Stanford
5. Potential ACC Team to be named later
6. Potential ACC Team to be named later
7. BYU
8. UCF
9. ASU
10. Utah
11. Houston
12. Cinci

No, I don't think they have any buyer's remorse.  With the addition of Colorado, they are at 13 schools.  Even with the possible addition of Utah, Arizona and ASU, they'll still only be at 16. Same size as the B10 after USC and UCLA join and the SEC after Texas and Oklahoma join.

And without those four, they don't get the media rights deal they ended up getting - the one where they skipped in front of the Pac 12. If they don't expand when they did, they'd be the ones breaking apart. And remember in this deal, current members see no decrease in rights fees if a P5 schools is added. It was a brilliant move by the conference.

The Pac 12 should have been bold. In retrospect, when Texas and Oklahoma left the B12, they should have tried to pick apart the rest and add Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma State and the two Kansas schools. But they played it safe, watched their two greatest assets leave, and waited for a market to come to them - and it never came.

But for argument sake, I would suggest that UCF and BYU for sure move the needle more than Stanford and Cal. Probably Houston too. 

[Hards Alumni]

Well, it is the Conference of Champions.

NO TRUCK STOPS

[Hards Alumni]

No, I don't think they have any buyer's remorse.  With the addition of Colorado, they are at 13 schools.  Even with the possible addition of Utah, Arizona and ASU, they'll still only be at 16. Same size as the B10 after USC and UCLA join and the SEC after Texas and Oklahoma join.

And without those four, they don't get the media rights deal they ended up getting - the one where they skipped in front of the Pac 12. If they don't expand when they did, they'd be the ones breaking apart. And remember in this deal, current members see no decrease in rights fees if a P5 schools is added. It was a brilliant move by the conference.

The Pac 12 should have been bold. In retrospect, when Texas and Oklahoma left the B12, they should have tried to pick apart the rest and add Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma State and the two Kansas schools. But they played it safe, watched their two greatest assets leave, and waited for a market to come to them - and it never came.

But for argument sake, I would suggest that UCF and BYU for sure move the needle more than Stanford and Cal. Probably Houston too.

Personally, I thought the Big 12 was dead the day Texas and Oklahoma left.  They've somehow persevered, and instead of them being dead, they're in a spot to claim a couple of schools from the rotting corpse that is the PAC12.  The Big 12 governing board should be praised for their navigation of a no win situation into positioning themselves at the third best conference... albeit quite a bit behind the top two.

[Uncle Rico]

Personally, I thought the Big 12 was dead the day Texas and Oklahoma left.  They've somehow persevered, and instead of them being dead, they're in a spot to claim a couple of schools from the rotting corpse that is the PAC12.  The Big 12 governing board should be praised for their navigation of a no win situation into positioning themselves at the third best conference... albeit quite a bit behind the top two.

And the Pac-12 leadership a case study in abject failure going back to Larry Scott