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Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 287892 times)

Lennys Tap

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1875 on: June 16, 2022, 03:16:01 PM »
I always appreciate your dispassionate, practical posts about investing.

As always, investors should have a long term investment horizon.

I love that.

True - take the long view. Things (globally) will eventually improve. Couple that with the inevitable change in leadership here and long term looks much better than the current mess.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1876 on: June 16, 2022, 09:56:45 PM »
change in leadership here

Where are rocky and ‘topper going?
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Hards Alumni

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1877 on: June 17, 2022, 06:06:48 AM »
True - take the long view. Things (globally) will eventually improve. Couple that with the inevitable change in leadership here and long term looks much better than the current mess.

Statistics aren't on your side, but okay.

Skatastrophy

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1878 on: June 17, 2022, 08:36:19 AM »
Where are rocky and ‘topper going?

And is SoCalWarrior coming back?!

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1879 on: June 18, 2022, 03:17:56 PM »
I guess people don't really gas is over $5 a gallon.  I had the longest drive ever in 40 years from Connecticut to JFK airport and it was pure congestion.  1.5h to 1.75h typical with traffic.  Took almost 3h and if I arrived 2 minutes later they weren't letting me check my bag in.

Golden Avalanche

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1880 on: June 18, 2022, 08:22:58 PM »
I guess people don't really gas is over $5 a gallon.  I had the longest drive ever in 40 years from Connecticut to JFK airport and it was pure congestion.  1.5h to 1.75h typical with traffic.  Took almost 3h and if I arrived 2 minutes later they weren't letting me check my bag in.

It is crap ton packed everywhere. More cars. More driving. More spending.

It's the most bizarre of times reconciling the warning signs and people either oblivious or unconcerned about them. Buona fortuna to all of us invested. 

Herman Cain

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1881 on: June 18, 2022, 08:49:37 PM »
I learned a long grim ago not to correlate crowded stores , restaurants and roads with the markets and the economy. For example even at the bottom of a recession , places like The Cheesecake Factory are always full.

We are in stagflation right now which is not a conducive environment for investing . That is why we are in a bear market . I am holding the positions we have but not establishing any new positions .

I have been about  60 percent cash for a while so plenty of spare firepower .
Winning is overrated. The only time it is really important is in surgery and war.
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Goose

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1882 on: June 19, 2022, 08:32:07 AM »
Herman

I am with you, over 75% cash and sitting still until the dust clears. As for things being busy, majority of people are normally behind the curve. When most people are at home down the road, I will be the guy out and about.

MuggsyB

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1883 on: June 19, 2022, 09:41:55 AM »
Herman

I am with you, over 75% cash and sitting still until the dust clears. As for things being busy, majority of people are normally behind the curve. When most people are at home down the road, I will be the guy out and about.

It sure looks like we're going to have a prolonged recession Goose.  Remember when I wrote in April that our economy is a freaking disaster and was vilified by most here?  Long-term I have faith in our people and the market but these are very difficult times.  Powell acted far too late frankly. 

Goose

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1884 on: June 19, 2022, 10:32:53 AM »
Muggs

I thought you were spot on with your evaluation of the economy. IMO, there are a lot of people out there convincing themselves this is just a normal or correction in the market and the economy is not that bad. I love taking risks in life, including investing, and I have never been this cautious in my life.

MuggsyB

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1885 on: June 19, 2022, 10:49:13 AM »
Muggs

I thought you were spot on with your evaluation of the economy. IMO, there are a lot of people out there convincing themselves this is just a normal or correction in the market and the economy is not that bad. I love taking risks in life, including investing, and I have never been this cautious in my life.

Part of the problem I'm having is that I strongly believe in growth stocks/index funds.  They've done extremely well since I began investing which began while I was at MU with the tutelage of my grandfather.  I'm still hesitant to go that much (75%) in cash because I don't plan on touching my investment income for 20 yrs. 

That said, I'm not confident at all that short-term decisions from current leadership will have much (if any ) positive impact on our inflation woes and the market.   In fact, they could exacerbate things further Goose which does frighten me.   I hope to God I'm wrong but I certainly don't see any quick fixes.  I would like to see better cooperation between our leaders and the private sector but I'm not optimistic that will happen. 

Goose

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1886 on: June 19, 2022, 11:43:44 AM »
Muggs

Stay the course, you have a lot more years than I do and I gave my kids the same advice. There will be better days ahead.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1887 on: June 19, 2022, 12:03:14 PM »
Part of the problem I'm having is that I strongly believe in growth stocks/index funds.  They've done extremely well since I began investing which began while I was at MU with the tutelage of my grandfather.  I'm still hesitant to go that much (75%) in cash because I don't plan on touching my investment income for 20 yrs. 

That said, I'm not confident at all that short-term decisions from current leadership will have much (if any ) positive impact on our inflation woes and the market.   In fact, they could exacerbate things further Goose which does frighten me.   I hope to God I'm wrong but I certainly don't see any quick fixes.  I would like to see better cooperation between our leaders and the private sector but I'm not optimistic that will happen.

What decisions do you think they should be making?
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

ATL MU Warrior

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1888 on: June 19, 2022, 12:12:08 PM »
Part of the problem I'm having is that I strongly believe in growth stocks/index funds.  They've done extremely well since I began investing which began while I was at MU with the tutelage of my grandfather.  I'm still hesitant to go that much (75%) in cash because I don't plan on touching my investment income for 20 yrs. 

That said, I'm not confident at all that short-term decisions from current leadership will have much (if any ) positive impact on our inflation woes and the market.   In fact, they could exacerbate things further Goose which does frighten me.   I hope to God I'm wrong but I certainly don't see any quick fixes.  I would like to see better cooperation between our leaders and the private sector but I'm not optimistic that will happen.
Always wise to let your whackadoodle political biases guide your investment decisions.

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1889 on: June 20, 2022, 11:28:25 AM »
Always wise to let your whackadoodle political biases guide your investment decisions.

I don't necessarily think its "whackadoodle".  Also, administrations can be incapable or unable of correcting financial issues that have been percolating for awhile, while not necessarily exacerbating them.  I don't think the current administration is solely to blame for inflation or other factors cause a major storm (and trying assign blame as such is actually whackadoodle political bias) but I don't have a ton of faith in the proper levels being pulled to correct it in the near term.

Politics has a huge play in investment decisions, short of the old "the market always goes up so ill just blindly buy indexes and call it all noise" mentality.  So using that as an input is totally fair IMO.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1890 on: June 20, 2022, 11:50:20 AM »
If inflation was limited to the U.S., there might be an argument that the administration was responsible, but it is a worldwide phenomenon. In retrospect, too much money was poured into the system to try to fight off the effects of COVID, by each of the last two administrations, but the persistent supply chain problems, coupled with a serious war, are obviously responsible as well or we wouldn't be seeing inflation globally.

What do you think the proper levers to pull in the short term are, beyond jacking up interest rates?

If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1891 on: June 20, 2022, 12:19:48 PM »
If inflation was limited to the U.S., there might be an argument that the administration was responsible, but it is a worldwide phenomenon. In retrospect, too much money was poured into the system to try to fight off the effects of COVID, by each of the last two administrations, but the persistent supply chain problems, coupled with a serious war, are obviously responsible as well or we wouldn't be seeing inflation globally.

What do you think the proper levers to pull in the short term are, beyond jacking up interest rates?

I don't entirely disagree.

Interest rate hikes obviously.  Stopping discussion of student loan forgiveness, which would be the wrong lever.  Some serious cuts elsewhere in government if they insist on spending heavily, like the infrastructure bill.

I'm not totally sure what they do in the short term, I'm not an economist, but they definitely f-ed up playing it off as insignificant or transitory awhile ago.

jesmu84

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1892 on: June 20, 2022, 12:35:41 PM »
We are a failed state in the sense that gridlocked congress refuses to do anything of substance to address major issues related to the economy. There's only so much you can do through the executive branch (though I'd argue they aren't doing enough).

That leaves the fed. And they have very few tools to use to fix problems.

MuggsyB

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1893 on: June 20, 2022, 01:07:35 PM »
If inflation was limited to the U.S., there might be an argument that the administration was responsible, but it is a worldwide phenomenon. In retrospect, too much money was poured into the system to try to fight off the effects of COVID, by each of the last two administrations, but the persistent supply chain problems, coupled with a serious war, are obviously responsible as well or we wouldn't be seeing inflation globally.

What do you think the proper levers to pull in the short term are, beyond jacking up interest rates?

First of all I never meant to intimate Biden in particular is more responsible than the Fed or Powell.  He absolutely should have acted much sooner and the "transitory" narrative was absolute nonsense.  Most of the Wall Steet Journal  op ed's place most of the blame on the Fed.  I think the stimulus package was also a huge mistake.  There are other things that I think could be done as far as our energy issues and gas prices but because they have political implications, and ideologically we have vast disagreement  on both sides, I don't think arguing about it serves much purpose. 

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1894 on: June 20, 2022, 01:19:33 PM »
I don't entirely disagree.

Interest rate hikes obviously.  Stopping discussion of student loan forgiveness, which would be the wrong lever.  Some serious cuts elsewhere in government if they insist on spending heavily, like the infrastructure bill.

I'm not totally sure what they do in the short term, I'm not an economist, but they definitely f-ed up playing it off as insignificant or transitory awhile ago.


The student loan forgiveness is all about politics, not economics.  And Biden really effed this up from the beginning when he said this.

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1241869418981920769

But then hasn't done anything about that. IMO you are going to have a huge number of young voters sitting out in 2022 and 2024 unless he addresses this. And the Dems are going to need every vote they can get.

But it would be a terrible economic decision.  Not to mention it doesn't address the underlying problem.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Lennys Tap

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1895 on: June 20, 2022, 05:01:28 PM »
I don't entirely disagree.

Interest rate hikes obviously.  Stopping discussion of student loan forgiveness, which would be the wrong lever.  Some serious cuts elsewhere in government if they insist on spending heavily, like the infrastructure bill.

I'm not totally sure what they do in the short term, I'm not an economist, but they definitely f-ed up playing it off as insignificant or transitory awhile ago.

There would be inflation no matter who was running things but this administration is batting .000 when it comes to anticipating the consequences of their chosen policies.

We’ve gone from hearing “the economy is humming, don’t worry about ‘transitory’ inflation” to “a recession isn’t inevitable” in literally almost no time. Imagine if Manchin hadn’t blocked “Build Back Better” where inflation would be headed. And student loan “forgiveness” (payment transfer to taxpayers) would make bad worse.

And it’s not just inflation - everywhere incompetence runs rampant. Afghanistan, the border, energy policy - consequences obvious to many catch them by surprise. The plant that produces 40% of the country’s baby formula is shut down in February and they’re dumbfounded by dangerous shortages months later.

Meanwhile, the President is stumbling through speeches, tripping on the stairs, shaking hands with the invisible man and falling off his bike - as public confidence sinks to dangerous lows.

Through it all, the buck never stops “here”. It stops in Russia, Exxon headquarters and Trump Tower - but never “here”.

Sorry for the politics - but it amazes me that a board so keen at pointing out mistakes from 2016-2020 (and there were many) is now so sanguine in the face of the current sh!t storm.


The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1896 on: June 20, 2022, 05:09:55 PM »
There would be inflation no matter who was running things but this administration is batting .000 when it comes to anticipating the consequences of their chosen policies.

We’ve gone from hearing “the economy is humming, don’t worry about ‘transitory’ inflation” to “a recession isn’t inevitable” in literally almost no time. Imagine if Manchin hadn’t blocked “Build Back Better” where inflation would be headed. And student loan “forgiveness” (payment transfer to taxpayers) would make bad worse.

And it’s not just inflation - everywhere incompetence runs rampant. Afghanistan, the border, energy policy - consequences obvious to many catch them by surprise. The plant that produces 40% of the country’s baby formula is shut down in February and they’re dumbfounded by dangerous shortages months later.

Meanwhile, the President is stumbling through speeches, tripping on the stairs, shaking hands with the invisible man and falling off his bike - as public confidence sinks to dangerous lows.

Through it all, the buck never stops “here”. It stops in Russia, Exxon headquarters and Trump Tower - but never “here”.

Sorry for the politics - but it amazes me that a board so keen at pointing out mistakes from 2016-2020 (and there were many) is now so sanguine in the face of the current sh!t storm.

Biden hasn’t been very good.

But a lot of the above is force-fed nonsense for the addle-minded.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

tower912

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1897 on: June 20, 2022, 05:12:22 PM »
Physically  we were saying the same thing about Trump.   Needing help down ramps, needing two hands to drink water, u able to finish sentences without random non sequitirs.
Politically, Biden is who I always thought he was.  Which is not a compliment.

Trump was worse, and worse than I thought he would be.   The most corrupt, incompetent president in history and an existential threat to democracy itself.  Which isn't over yet.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1898 on: June 20, 2022, 05:29:29 PM »
Physically  we were saying the same thing about Trump.   Needing help down ramps, needing two hands to drink water, u able to finish sentences without random non sequitirs.
Politically, Biden is who I always thought he was.  Which is not a compliment.

Trump was worse, and worse than I thought he would be.   The most corrupt, incompetent president in history and an existential threat to democracy itself.  Which isn't over yet.

YeAh BuT BiDeN FeLl OfF hIs BiKe!!!
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Uncle Rico

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1899 on: June 20, 2022, 05:35:16 PM »
Any tips for investing?
“This is bar none atrocious.  Mitchell cannot shoot either.  What a pile of dung”