Investing Thread

[MU82]

Disney is on pace to earn ~$4.00/share this year. While that is well below their pre-COVID peak, it's also well above their '20 and '21 numbers. Revenue will easily exceed their pre-COVID peak.

The stock price is way, way down, but I would argue it is down from an irrational high, not that the company isn't preforming well. The stock price hasn't performed well, but I think it has merely dropped into fair value territory from way over bought.

I recently took a very small position, and am comfortable adding to it at this level.

That said, I think the prices at their parks are insane and you couldn't pay me enough to go, but for now it seems that they are charging what the people will bear and the public is happily paying it.

I tend to agree with this take. I haven't decided on a price yet, and DIS isn't really the kind of stock I like to buy because it pays no dividend (and in fact eliminated its fairly low dividend during Covid), but this is a valuable public company so it is on my watch list.

[JWags85]

That said, I think the prices at their parks are insane and you couldn't pay me enough to go, but for now it seems that they are charging what the people will bear and the public is happily paying it.

This is what is so fascinating about Disney as a company to me.  The parks are pretty much inelastic and non-cyclical.  For every person that shares ZFB's sentiment about going to Disney World, you ride a shuttle or tram at the park with their polar opposite who visits multiple times a year...from out of state. 

My old roommate was from the greater Cleveland area, and he had relatives who didn't have passports.  This came into play cause they didn't attend a family trip to Cancun for his Mom's 60th.  They said something along the lines of "passports are for fancy rich people who want to look at old stuff in Europe.  We don't have money for that."  Meanwhile, they went to Disney AT LEAST twice a year, and that dated back before they even had kids.  And they would always stay at a Disney property.  That easily costs what it would take to go to Europe.

Between the parks, and Marvel, and the insane brand equity that goes with all the affiliated Disney merch revenue, it makes you realize how much stuff they are in that must be a profit drain (cough cough ESPN cough). 

[ZiggysFryBoy]

This is what is so fascinating about Disney as a company to me.  The parks are pretty much inelastic and non-cyclical.  For every person that shares ZFB's sentiment about going to Disney World, you ride a shuttle or tram at the park with their polar opposite who visits multiple times a year...from out of state. 

My old roommate was from the greater Cleveland area, and he had relatives who didn't have passports.  This came into play cause they didn't attend a family trip to Cancun for his Mom's 60th.  They said something along the lines of "passports are for fancy rich people who want to look at old stuff in Europe.  We don't have money for that."  Meanwhile, they went to Disney AT LEAST twice a year, and that dated back before they even had kids.  And they would always stay at a Disney property.  That easily costs what it would take to go to Europe.

Between the parks, and Marvel, and the insane brand equity that goes with all the affiliated Disney merch revenue, it makes you realize how much stuff they are in that must be a profit drain (cough cough ESPN cough).

We know personally several adult Disney people that went multiple times in a year that are done with the parks.  My wife is in trip planning Facebook groups, a lot of the same sentiment there too.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

It probably won't be so bad, I'm sure his family is fine and ZFB is just the black sheep.

I'm the favorite son in law.

[tower912]

How low is THAT bar?

[JWags85]

We know personally several adult Disney people that went multiple times in a year that are done with the parks.  My wife is in trip planning Facebook groups, a lot of the same sentiment there too.

Due to cost?  Wow.  I believe you but thats really surprising and counters most of the empirical evidence Ive experienced.  Though I'm sure there is a bevy of matching custom Mickey and Minnie t shirt clad couples ready to fill their void.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Due to cost?  Wow.  I believe you but thats really surprising and counters most of the empirical evidence Ive experienced.  Though I'm sure there is a bevy of matching custom Mickey and Minnie t shirt clad couples ready to fill their void.

You just run with the ADF crowd, I guess.  🙃

[ZiggysFryBoy]

How low is THAT bar?

Like a fųcking limbo pole.

Wife has 3 brothers and no sisters.

[The Sultan]

Like a fųcking limbo pole.

Wife has 3 brothers and no sisters.

That doesn't mean you're the only son-in-law.

[Hards Alumni]

I don't necessarily think its "whackadoodle".  Also, administrations can be incapable or unable of correcting financial issues that have been percolating for awhile, while not necessarily exacerbating them.  I don't think the current administration is solely to blame for inflation or other factors cause a major storm (and trying assign blame as such is actually whackadoodle political bias) but I don't have a ton of faith in the proper levels being pulled to correct it in the near term.

Politics has a huge play in investment decisions, short of the old "the market always goes up so ill just blindly buy indexes and call it all noise" mentality.  So using that as an input is totally fair IMO.

Hard agree.

Yoinking the interest rate lever as the only way to combat what is happening is a terrible idea.  But short of divesting in China (another bad idea) we are going to have short and long term problems fixing supply side inflation.  I don't have the answers, but it'd be nice if we could use a carrot to get it's population vaccinated.  The zero Covid policy that they're employing is absolutely wrecking supply for the US markets.  And when supply decreases, demand increases and prices follow.  Long term, it would be nice to find multiple places to source our 'needs' from instead of just China.

[Hards Alumni]

Due to cost?  Wow.  I believe you but thats really surprising and counters most of the empirical evidence Ive experienced.  Though I'm sure there is a bevy of matching custom Mickey and Minnie t shirt clad couples ready to fill their void.

In my experience at Disney the people with the custom shirts are usually very large groups, and this is their family vacation for the decade and they're going all out for it.

[MU82]

Just got back home after spending a week-plus in Chicagoland visiting the kids, grandkids and friends.

Stayed last night near Lexington. About an hour into our drive home we popped into Starbucks so my wife could get her daily cup o' joe. There were 16 cars in the drive-thru line, and the lobby was also packed. All waiting to buy their $5 or $7 lattes or fraps or whatever. This was in London, KY, which is pretty close to the middle of nowhere.

Couldn't get more anecdotal than this ... but I still might need to buy a little more SBUX stock this week!

Also anecdotal but some might find interesting (or not): Paid $4.19 per gallon for gas in that area, too. By far our cheapest fill of the trip (and in many months).

[jesmu84]

Just got back home after spending a week-plus in Chicagoland visiting the kids, grandkids and friends.

Stayed last night near Lexington. About an hour into our drive home we popped into Starbucks so my wife could get her daily cup o' joe. There were 16 cars in the drive-thru line, and the lobby was also packed. All waiting to buy their $5 or $7 lattes or fraps or whatever. This was in London, KY, which is pretty close to the middle of nowhere.

Couldn't get more anecdotal than this ... but I still might need to buy a little more SBUX stock this week!

Also anecdotal but some might find interesting (or not): Paid $4.19 per gallon for gas in that area, too. By far our cheapest fill of the trip (and in many months).

Starbucks is guaranteeing worker access to abortion services. But only for non-union employees

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Starbucks is guaranteeing worker access to abortion services. But only for non-union employees

Well, the union can bargain for that.  That's how things work.

[MU82]

Starbucks is guaranteeing worker access to abortion services. But only for non-union employees

I'll leave abortion discussion to the thread that's dedicated to it.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I realize there isn't necessarily a direct correlation between the two, but with the Dow up 700+ points today, and $DIS down almost 1%, there's no way the $DIS board renews Chapek's contract early next year, right?

The answer is apparently yes, there is a way. 

[LAZER]

Just got back home after spending a week-plus in Chicagoland visiting the kids, grandkids and friends.

Stayed last night near Lexington. About an hour into our drive home we popped into Starbucks so my wife could get her daily cup o' joe. There were 16 cars in the drive-thru line, and the lobby was also packed. All waiting to buy their $5 or $7 lattes or fraps or whatever. This was in London, KY, which is pretty close to the middle of nowhere.

Couldn't get more anecdotal than this ... but I still might need to buy a little more SBUX stock this week!

Also anecdotal but some might find interesting (or not): Paid $4.19 per gallon for gas in that area, too. By far our cheapest fill of the trip (and in many months).

Ha. I've spent a couple nights in London, KY.

[Herman Cain]

Ha. I've spent a couple nights in London, KY.

Been there myself as well. The Abbey Restaurant had solid food .

[TSmith34, Inc.]

In a stunning revelation that will surprise no one, Musk is trying to weasel out of his purchase agreement with Twitter.

[Hards Alumni]

In a stunning revelation that will surprise no one, Musk is trying to weasel out of his purchase agreement with Twitter.

IMO, it was all manipulation of stock prices from the start.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

IMO, it was all manipulation of stock prices from the start.

With a huge, huge dash of ego and hubris and general fuckery

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Beat. Raise. Rinse and repeat.

Boring!

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cvs-earnings-guidance-51659523403?siteid=yhoof2

[reinko]

I don't think we are out of the woods yet, but...

Congratulations to anyone that was buying hard-down growth tech this week! You've been rewarded with an instant 25% bump, happy Friday!

I've been buying more Cloudflare since it dipped below $55, and lamenting my other losses. (SOFI, COIN, and NERD are all down over 60% since purchase). This is my kind of gambling

Just applauding and fingers crossed you held onto NET. I got in right around $54 with a solid position and with yesterdays earnings call up 26%.

👏🏼 👏🏼 👏🏼

Edit: Make that 35% 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Nice, congrats.

Wish I had been braver with Snowflake but I missed the bounce there.

[Skatastrophy]

Just applauding and fingers crossed you held onto NET. I got in right around $54 with a solid position and with yesterdays earnings call up 26%.

👏🏼 👏🏼 👏🏼

Edit: Make that 35% 

Congrats! Oh yeah, I have increased my NET position just over twofold right around your entry price. I also have a few $115 January 2024 calls that I picked up for a reasonable price last week that are up ~100%.

Cloudflare seems to be doing all the right things and I'm in it for the long haul.