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Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 146682 times)

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1925 on: June 21, 2022, 06:10:32 PM »
Disney is on pace to earn ~$4.00/share this year. While that is well below their pre-COVID peak, it's also well above their '20 and '21 numbers. Revenue will easily exceed their pre-COVID peak.

The stock price is way, way down, but I would argue it is down from an irrational high, not that the company isn't preforming well. The stock price hasn't performed well, but I think it has merely dropped into fair value territory from way over bought.

I recently took a very small position, and am comfortable adding to it at this level.

That said, I think the prices at their parks are insane and you couldn't pay me enough to go, but for now it seems that they are charging what the people will bear and the public is happily paying it.

I tend to agree with this take. I haven't decided on a price yet, and DIS isn't really the kind of stock I like to buy because it pays no dividend (and in fact eliminated its fairly low dividend during Covid), but this is a valuable public company so it is on my watch list.
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1926 on: June 21, 2022, 07:45:49 PM »
That said, I think the prices at their parks are insane and you couldn't pay me enough to go, but for now it seems that they are charging what the people will bear and the public is happily paying it.

This is what is so fascinating about Disney as a company to me.  The parks are pretty much inelastic and non-cyclical.  For every person that shares ZFB's sentiment about going to Disney World, you ride a shuttle or tram at the park with their polar opposite who visits multiple times a year...from out of state. 

My old roommate was from the greater Cleveland area, and he had relatives who didn't have passports.  This came into play cause they didn't attend a family trip to Cancun for his Mom's 60th.  They said something along the lines of "passports are for fancy rich people who want to look at old stuff in Europe.  We don't have money for that."  Meanwhile, they went to Disney AT LEAST twice a year, and that dated back before they even had kids.  And they would always stay at a Disney property.  That easily costs what it would take to go to Europe.

Between the parks, and Marvel, and the insane brand equity that goes with all the affiliated Disney merch revenue, it makes you realize how much stuff they are in that must be a profit drain (cough cough ESPN cough). 

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1927 on: June 21, 2022, 07:52:40 PM »
This is what is so fascinating about Disney as a company to me.  The parks are pretty much inelastic and non-cyclical.  For every person that shares ZFB's sentiment about going to Disney World, you ride a shuttle or tram at the park with their polar opposite who visits multiple times a year...from out of state. 

My old roommate was from the greater Cleveland area, and he had relatives who didn't have passports.  This came into play cause they didn't attend a family trip to Cancun for his Mom's 60th.  They said something along the lines of "passports are for fancy rich people who want to look at old stuff in Europe.  We don't have money for that."  Meanwhile, they went to Disney AT LEAST twice a year, and that dated back before they even had kids.  And they would always stay at a Disney property.  That easily costs what it would take to go to Europe.

Between the parks, and Marvel, and the insane brand equity that goes with all the affiliated Disney merch revenue, it makes you realize how much stuff they are in that must be a profit drain (cough cough ESPN cough).

We know personally several adult Disney people that went multiple times in a year that are done with the parks.  My wife is in trip planning Facebook groups, a lot of the same sentiment there too.

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1928 on: June 21, 2022, 07:58:29 PM »
It probably won't be so bad, I'm sure his family is fine and ZFB is just the black sheep.

I'm the favorite son in law.

tower912

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1929 on: June 21, 2022, 08:16:59 PM »
How low is THAT bar?
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1930 on: June 21, 2022, 08:49:34 PM »
We know personally several adult Disney people that went multiple times in a year that are done with the parks.  My wife is in trip planning Facebook groups, a lot of the same sentiment there too.

Due to cost?  Wow.  I believe you but thats really surprising and counters most of the empirical evidence Ive experienced.  Though I'm sure there is a bevy of matching custom Mickey and Minnie t shirt clad couples ready to fill their void.

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1931 on: June 21, 2022, 09:48:07 PM »
Due to cost?  Wow.  I believe you but thats really surprising and counters most of the empirical evidence Ive experienced.  Though I'm sure there is a bevy of matching custom Mickey and Minnie t shirt clad couples ready to fill their void.

You just run with the ADF crowd, I guess.  🙃

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1932 on: June 21, 2022, 09:49:12 PM »
How low is THAT bar?

Like a fųcking limbo pole.

Wife has 3 brothers and no sisters.

User Name #251

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1933 on: June 22, 2022, 03:50:55 AM »
Like a fųcking limbo pole.

Wife has 3 brothers and no sisters.

That doesn’t mean you’re the only son-in-law.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Hards Alumni

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1934 on: June 22, 2022, 01:26:09 PM »
I don't necessarily think its "whackadoodle".  Also, administrations can be incapable or unable of correcting financial issues that have been percolating for awhile, while not necessarily exacerbating them.  I don't think the current administration is solely to blame for inflation or other factors cause a major storm (and trying assign blame as such is actually whackadoodle political bias) but I don't have a ton of faith in the proper levels being pulled to correct it in the near term.

Politics has a huge play in investment decisions, short of the old "the market always goes up so ill just blindly buy indexes and call it all noise" mentality.  So using that as an input is totally fair IMO.

Hard agree.

Yoinking the interest rate lever as the only way to combat what is happening is a terrible idea.  But short of divesting in China (another bad idea) we are going to have short and long term problems fixing supply side inflation.  I don't have the answers, but it'd be nice if we could use a carrot to get it's population vaccinated.  The zero Covid policy that they're employing is absolutely wrecking supply for the US markets.  And when supply decreases, demand increases and prices follow.  Long term, it would be nice to find multiple places to source our 'needs' from instead of just China.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1935 on: June 22, 2022, 01:28:18 PM »
Due to cost?  Wow.  I believe you but thats really surprising and counters most of the empirical evidence Ive experienced.  Though I'm sure there is a bevy of matching custom Mickey and Minnie t shirt clad couples ready to fill their void.

In my experience at Disney the people with the custom shirts are usually very large groups, and this is their family vacation for the decade and they're going all out for it.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1936 on: June 26, 2022, 04:48:16 PM »
Just got back home after spending a week-plus in Chicagoland visiting the kids, grandkids and friends.

Stayed last night near Lexington. About an hour into our drive home we popped into Starbucks so my wife could get her daily cup o' joe. There were 16 cars in the drive-thru line, and the lobby was also packed. All waiting to buy their $5 or $7 lattes or fraps or whatever. This was in London, KY, which is pretty close to the middle of nowhere.

Couldn't get more anecdotal than this ... but I still might need to buy a little more SBUX stock this week!

Also anecdotal but some might find interesting (or not): Paid $4.19 per gallon for gas in that area, too. By far our cheapest fill of the trip (and in many months).

"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

jesmu84

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1937 on: June 26, 2022, 05:44:33 PM »
Just got back home after spending a week-plus in Chicagoland visiting the kids, grandkids and friends.

Stayed last night near Lexington. About an hour into our drive home we popped into Starbucks so my wife could get her daily cup o' joe. There were 16 cars in the drive-thru line, and the lobby was also packed. All waiting to buy their $5 or $7 lattes or fraps or whatever. This was in London, KY, which is pretty close to the middle of nowhere.

Couldn't get more anecdotal than this ... but I still might need to buy a little more SBUX stock this week!

Also anecdotal but some might find interesting (or not): Paid $4.19 per gallon for gas in that area, too. By far our cheapest fill of the trip (and in many months).

Starbucks is guaranteeing worker access to abortion services. But only for non-union employees

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1938 on: June 26, 2022, 06:53:21 PM »
Starbucks is guaranteeing worker access to abortion services. But only for non-union employees

Well, the union can bargain for that.  That's how things work.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1939 on: June 26, 2022, 09:15:17 PM »
Starbucks is guaranteeing worker access to abortion services. But only for non-union employees

I’ll leave abortion discussion to the thread that’s dedicated to it.
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1940 on: June 29, 2022, 10:36:11 AM »
I realize there isn't necessarily a direct correlation between the two, but with the Dow up 700+ points today, and $DIS down almost 1%, there's no way the $DIS board renews Chapek's contract early next year, right?

The answer is apparently yes, there is a way. 

LAZER

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1941 on: June 29, 2022, 10:38:13 AM »
Just got back home after spending a week-plus in Chicagoland visiting the kids, grandkids and friends.

Stayed last night near Lexington. About an hour into our drive home we popped into Starbucks so my wife could get her daily cup o' joe. There were 16 cars in the drive-thru line, and the lobby was also packed. All waiting to buy their $5 or $7 lattes or fraps or whatever. This was in London, KY, which is pretty close to the middle of nowhere.

Couldn't get more anecdotal than this ... but I still might need to buy a little more SBUX stock this week!

Also anecdotal but some might find interesting (or not): Paid $4.19 per gallon for gas in that area, too. By far our cheapest fill of the trip (and in many months).
Ha. I've spent a couple nights in London, KY.

Herman Cain

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1942 on: July 02, 2022, 03:34:46 PM »
Ha. I've spent a couple nights in London, KY.
Been there myself as well. The Abbey Restaurant had solid food .
Vote for Pedro

 

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