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Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 159900 times)

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1950 on: August 09, 2022, 03:15:41 PM »
Signet Jewelers buying Blue Nile for $360MM.  I'm obviously close to this deal on both fronts but this is BAFFLING.

Blue Nile was set to go public via SPAC with an enterprise value of just under $700MM.  Now just 2 months later, they are selling for $300MM less.  Even given that its an all cash deal, I'm still puzzled, especially since they were taken private 6 years ago for $500MM.   

The company is undoubtedly in better financial shape AND brand shape than 2016 and Ive seen first hand behind the curtains at some of the tactical spending and clean up they've done.  Their current CEO is very impressive and pragmatic.  So there has to be something SIGNIFICANT going on behind the scenes for this to happen like this.  Especially with a shrewd operator like Bain Capital holding the purse strings.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1951 on: August 09, 2022, 05:53:20 PM »
Signet Jewelers buying Blue Nile for $360MM.  I'm obviously close to this deal on both fronts but this is BAFFLING.

Blue Nile was set to go public via SPAC with an enterprise value of just under $700MM.  Now just 2 months later, they are selling for $300MM less.  Even given that its an all cash deal, I'm still puzzled, especially since they were taken private 6 years ago for $500MM.   

The company is undoubtedly in better financial shape AND brand shape than 2016 and Ive seen first hand behind the curtains at some of the tactical spending and clean up they've done.  Their current CEO is very impressive and pragmatic.  So there has to be something SIGNIFICANT going on behind the scenes for this to happen like this.  Especially with a shrewd operator like Bain Capital holding the purse strings.

In my previous job (2016-2020), Signet was my biggest customer, I was in Akron almost every other week for a while. That company was on life support back in 2018/2019, it’s amazing to me how the pandemic really helped them out. They were closing hundreds of stores a year (Jared and Zales mainly) and I really didn’t think they were going to make it (a lot of people there told me they thought the same thing).

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1952 on: August 09, 2022, 07:12:19 PM »
In my previous job (2016-2020), Signet was my biggest customer, I was in Akron almost every other week for a while. That company was on life support back in 2018/2019, it’s amazing to me how the pandemic really helped them out. They were closing hundreds of stores a year (Jared and Zales mainly) and I really didn’t think they were going to make it (a lot of people there told me they thought the same thing).

You caught the tail end of the glory days.  We likely knew a number of people in common.
 
The management shift coinciding with the Zales acquisition just changed the culture there.  They went from marketing geniuses to the Walmart of jewelry.  But I agree with you.  I never thought they would implode, but I thought a significant restructuring would need to occur.  They managed to pull out of the tailspin but that place bears no resemblance to the company 3/5/10 years ago. Around 2017, I had about 25 people I or my company colleagues could call and chat with there.  That number dwindled to 1 by this year and that person just left.  Our day to day contact has changed 4 times since the start of 2021.  And the way they handle their PnL is abysmal. 

Blue Nile recently ran the way Signet used to.  Not shocking as their advisory team had some solid Signet alums.  But I fear them going the same way.

From a pure stock perspective, hard to get a read.  They are terribly run with bad strategy and top leadership, IMO.  But they are huge and keep absorbing competitors.

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1953 on: August 11, 2022, 11:18:55 AM »
It never fails...whenever a BDC or REIT issues more equity, the stock inevitably takes a hit. This frequently true for all stocks, of course, but what people seem to fail to understand is that BDCs and REITs immediately use the additional capital to make investments that increase their FFO and FAD.

MAIN is down more than 4.5% today on an equity raise, currently at 42.80. If you are looking for a short-term trade, it will likely bounce back up in the next day or two.
Pooba of Biggot Buffons

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1954 on: August 11, 2022, 11:42:00 AM »
It never fails...whenever a BDC or REIT issues more equity, the stock inevitably takes a hit. This frequently true for all stocks, of course, but what people seem to fail to understand is that BDCs and REITs immediately use the additional capital to make investments that increase their FFO and FAD.

MAIN is down more than 4.5% today on an equity raise, currently at 42.80. If you are looking for a short-term trade, it will likely bounce back up in the next day or two.

Its just a function of temporary dilution effects.  It would happen even if a company said "we're issuing equity, raising $XX and using $XX to invest in Y that will bring a return of 25% by Q2".  Of course it will bounce back, its just the near term.

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1955 on: August 11, 2022, 07:45:38 PM »
Its just a function of temporary dilution effects.  It would happen even if a company said "we're issuing equity, raising $XX and using $XX to invest in Y that will bring a return of 25% by Q2".  Of course it will bounce back, its just the near term.
The distinction I'm drawing is between REITs and BDCs compared to a typical C corp. A C corp issuing equity does suffer from dilution, particularly when they state they are using the funds for general purposes or even to pay down debt; a REIT or BDC is doing more or less exactly what you said in your second sentence. Equity raises literally fuel their growth, and the knee jerk reaction by the market taking their share price down is a mispricing to be taken advantage of IMO.
Pooba of Biggot Buffons

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1956 on: August 12, 2022, 08:51:52 AM »
Disney is on pace to earn ~$4.00/share this year. While that is well below their pre-COVID peak, it's also well above their '20 and '21 numbers. Revenue will easily exceed their pre-COVID peak.

The stock price is way, way down, but I would argue it is down from an irrational high, not that the company isn't preforming well. The stock price hasn't performed well, but I think it has merely dropped into fair value territory from way over bought.

I recently took a very small position, and am comfortable adding to it at this level.

That said, I think the prices at their parks are insane and you couldn't pay me enough to go, but for now it seems that they are charging what the people will bear and the public is happily paying it.
DIS with a strong earnings report and a nice run.
Pooba of Biggot Buffons

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1957 on: August 12, 2022, 09:20:07 AM »
The distinction I'm drawing is between REITs and BDCs compared to a typical C corp. A C corp issuing equity does suffer from dilution, particularly when they state they are using the funds for general purposes or even to pay down debt; a REIT or BDC is doing more or less exactly what you said in your second sentence. Equity raises literally fuel their growth, and the knee jerk reaction by the market taking their share price down is a mispricing to be taken advantage of IMO.

No I get you.  I'm just saying, any equity raise is dilution, even if there is an growth immediately after.  Just saying why I get the immediate drop in stock.  But I agree 90% of the time its a great buying opp

Hards Alumni

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1958 on: August 16, 2022, 10:35:30 AM »
Meme stock day.

BBBY +75%

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1959 on: August 16, 2022, 12:07:33 PM »
Meme stock day.

BBBY +75%

Wish you had told me yesterday that this was gonna happen today!

BTW, Wall Street halted trading on BBBY midday. Up 54%.
There were 681 attempts to ban or restrict access to a record 1,651 different books in schools through August of this year. What books? Mainly those written by or about people of color or that deal with LGBTQ issues.

BAN ASSAULT RIFLES, NOT BOOKS!

jesmu84

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1960 on: August 16, 2022, 05:24:58 PM »
Ally online savings went from 2+% in the early days of COVID, to 0.5% at the height of the money printing and is now back to 1.75%

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1961 on: August 16, 2022, 07:42:27 PM »
Glad I resisted the temptation of bottom fishing with Peloton. Raising prices while also slashing the sort of services that made your brand in the first place seems like a terrible idea to me.

“Peloton, today, took several steps to further advance our transformation strategy, better positioning the company for long term success as the largest, global Connected Fitness company. The moves we made include, the implementation of more strategic pricing; the elimination of our North America final mile distribution network and expansion of our third-party logistics (3PL) partnerships; the reduction of our North America Member Support team; and the signal of our intent to significantly reduce our North America retail footprint. Unfortunately, these workforce shifts result in the departure of 784 employees from the company. Any decision we make that impacts team members is not taken lightly, but these moves enable Peloton to become more efficient, cost-effective, and agile as we continue to define and lead the global Connected Fitness category.”

https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/12/23303209/peloton-layoffs-bike-tread-price-increase
Pooba of Biggot Buffons

Hards Alumni

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1962 on: August 17, 2022, 05:26:44 PM »
Wish you had told me yesterday that this was gonna happen today!

BTW, Wall Street halted trading on BBBY midday. Up 54%.

I had no idea, I don't follow the WSB weirdos.  ;D

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1963 on: August 18, 2022, 10:12:01 AM »
I had no idea, I don't follow the WSB weirdos.  ;D

Annnnnddddd....back down 22% 55% today
« Last Edit: August 18, 2022, 11:19:54 PM by TSmith34 »
Pooba of Biggot Buffons

Merit Matters

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1964 on: August 18, 2022, 10:47:31 PM »
Told friends and family to seriously invest in $TPL before it converted from a trust to a corporation in early 2010s. Didn’t listen to me. Same people calling for advice, I don’t have a time machine. Didn’t buy the land thesis, or water rights, or bitcoin mining flaring rights, etc. etc.
All Lives Matter

Elonsmusk

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1965 on: September 22, 2022, 11:19:53 AM »
Think Ellenson Family Reunion gives some good advice above.  This dip is a great thing for you being 30 years out.  If you are a buy and hold guy, ideas I'd present would be:  AMRN, ETSY, ULTA, RVLV, SQ, BA, SHOP, CTAS.

Higher volatility biotechs I like (a sector invest 50% of my portfolio):  AXSM, FLGT, GNPX, NVTA, SAVA, AQST, IGMS.

Bloom Energy (BE) is also an interesting company with a bright future IMO.

Invest at your own risk above.  Just sharing some ideas.

I got burned on AMRN, but SAVA has been a big (and volatile) volatile winner for me.  SAVA is the best risk/reward stock in the market.  Their Alzheimer's drug has best in class results by a MILE.  Currently in their Phase 3 study.  Market cap of a pill-form, successful AD drug would likely be somewhere in the area of $75-100 Billion globally. Current market cap is $1.8 Billion.

Tortuga94

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1966 on: September 22, 2022, 07:57:58 PM »
I got burned on AMRN, but SAVA has been a big (and volatile) volatile winner for me.  SAVA is the best risk/reward stock in the market.  Their Alzheimer's drug has best in class results by a MILE.  Currently in their Phase 3 study.  Market cap of a pill-form, successful AD drug would likely be somewhere in the area of $75-100 Billion globally. Current market cap is $1.8 Billion.

I've been invested in SAVA since early 2021, I bought for a little over $8/share. While I've done well with the stock, I am kicking myself for not trimming some when it shot over $100. I do have a standing order to sell half my position at $60, the way it's been moving lately it might get there soon, I hope it does, and I will have no problem taking profits this time around.
It is an extremely speculative position and history tells us that it is more likely to fail in phase 3 testing than to succeed. AD is extremely complex which why there haven't been any new treatments in about 30 years, not counting Biogen's recently approved drug, as that has been a bust.


forgetful

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1967 on: September 26, 2022, 05:27:52 PM »
I've been invested in SAVA since early 2021, I bought for a little over $8/share. While I've done well with the stock, I am kicking myself for not trimming some when it shot over $100. I do have a standing order to sell half my position at $60, the way it's been moving lately it might get there soon, I hope it does, and I will have no problem taking profits this time around.
It is an extremely speculative position and history tells us that it is more likely to fail in phase 3 testing than to succeed. AD is extremely complex which why there haven't been any new treatments in about 30 years, not counting Biogen's recently approved drug, as that has been a bust.

I'm quite concerned by issues regarding their scientific integrity/diligence.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197458022000562?via%3Dihub

While, they found no intentional misrepresentation of data, the systematic issues with properly reporting/conducting experiments is concerning for a company once valued at $5B based on their data.

I hope their drug works, but history shows that AD drugs fail to provide significant improvement/benefit.

Elonsmusk

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1968 on: Today at 10:17:48 AM »
I'm quite concerned by issues regarding their scientific integrity/diligence.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197458022000562?via%3Dihub

While, they found no intentional misrepresentation of data, the systematic issues with properly reporting/conducting experiments is concerning for a company once valued at $5B based on their data.

I hope their drug works, but history shows that AD drugs fail to provide significant improvement/benefit.

What you probably aren't aware of is the corruption that exists within Big Pharma.  All of the noise around "data manipulation" was done via a "Citizens Petition" to the FDA, alleging data manipulation.  Never in the history of the FDA had a Citizens Petition been filed while a drug was in its Phase 2 development cycle/not even on the market.  Furthermore, Citizens Petitions are used for reporting safety issues of approved drugs..nothing to do with the data of a drug's development.  Yet, even with that being said, SAVA's drug - Simufilam - had over 300,000 doses administered at that time and ZERO safety concerns arose.

The citizens petition first was reported as a "whistleblower" report, implying someone within Cassava Sciences alleged the data manipulation/fraud.  The reality is that the petition was filed on behalf of two doctors with equity in a different Biotech who held massive short positions in SAVA.  The release of this information aligned with the Theranos trial, and the match was light.

Meanwhile, since that time FIVE scientific journals have cleared SAVA of data manipulation/fraud, and publications far more credible that "Science Direct." 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-evidence-data-manipulation-science-131500138.html

The reality is, is that most likely Biogen is behind the massive FUD/short and distort efforts against SAVA.  The criminality of the FDA approving their AD drug (Aduhelm), against a 10-1 vote AGAINST by the FDA's own Advisory Committee illustrates all you need to know about corruption within Big Pharma/FDA.  That AD drug is now virtually not used due to its poor safety profile/brain bleeding...and BIIB just paid a $900 million dollar fine for making false claims to Medicare/Medicaid by paying kick backs to doctors to prescribe Biogen drugs.  Another case of corruption:  See the Sackler Family/Perdue Pharma and how they bought off the FDA.

I just share the above for context.  It does concern me IF* SAVA does not partner with an equally powerful Big Pharma company, as I don't trust the FDA at all. 

I learned firsthand of the corruption within Big Pharma/FDA after 1 Judge invalidated all of the patents of another of my biotech holdings -  AMRN - and thus torpedoed the value of AMRN's valuable drug, Vascepa. This created a market for generics.. the judge ruled stating the science was "obvious" yet the FDA put required AMRN to run a 12,000 person, multi-continent Phase 3 study to prove their science.  Craziness.  AMRN's drug can substantially lower cholesterol and reduce risk of heart attack and thus impact profits of other cardiovascular drugs.

I'm still holding a large position in SAVA, but my entry point was at $3.50/share, but I've also been accumulating shares in all of the $20s, $30s, $40s, $50s, $60s, $70s, and $80s last summer.

Should* the current Phase 3 results replicate their findings of their Phase 2 trials/Open Label studies - and gain FDA approval you are looking at a company with a market cap of $75-$100 billion, relatively easily.  I like the risk reward dynamics here, particularly given the current market/inflation/looming recession.

Large recent insider buys have me very bullish.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-way-beat-market-storm-000106145.html
« Last Edit: Today at 12:09:48 PM by Elonsmusk »