Investing Thread

[MU82]

Ruble to dollar is higher than it was a year ago.

Well then … it wasn’t rubles either!

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Are we at capitulation yet?

[Goose]

I think capitulation is still down the road. This is a perfect storm, in a bad way, for the market and I do not think we have seen the worst on the downturn.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I think capitulation is still down the road. This is a perfect storm, in a bad way, for the market and I do not think we have seen the worst on the downturn.

I do, too. Haven't seen the blowoff that would indicate a possible bottom.

[MU82]

Are we at capitulation yet?

I've been doing little bits of buying here and there, no selling. My limit order for a bit of UNP hit while I was playing (bad) golf today.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I've been doing little bits of buying here and there, no selling. My limit order for a bit of UNP hit while I was playing (bad) golf today.

My buy list is growing, but I won't trigger anything yet. I did write some puts for ARCC at 18 which are getting close to in-the-money, but I am completely fine taking shares at that price with a 9%+ yield if it comes to that.

[MU82]

My buy list is growing, but I won't trigger anything yet. I did write some puts for ARCC at 18 which are getting close to in-the-money, but I am completely fine taking shares at that price with a 9%+ yield if it comes to that.

Good luck with that, TS. I’ve looked at ARCC and a few other REITs, as the only one I own is O. Not quite there yet.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

ARCC is a BDC rather than a REIT. I own a handful with an average yield of 8.3% as the part of my holdings where I am creating a sort of annuity.

[MU82]

ARCC is a BDC rather than a REIT. I own a handful with an average yield of 8.3% as the part of my holdings where I am creating a sort of annuity.

Thanks for that correction, TS. I was getting it confused with something else.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Doing my customer monthly price updates today.

In eases to inflation, raw material prices are down again in May as they were down in April.
Copper down ~ $0.37/lb
Tin down ~ $3.00/lb
Zinc down ~$0.20/lb
Nickel down ~$2.75/lb (Even despite continued Russia sanctions and the Ukraine war.)

[Herman Cain]

https://nypost.com/2022/06/01/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-an-economic-hurricane-is-coming/

[MU82]

https://nypost.com/2022/06/01/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-an-economic-hurricane-is-coming/

I hope he'll survive it. After making only $84 million last year, JPM shareholders rejected a $53 million retention bonus.

[Skatastrophy]

https://nypost.com/2022/06/01/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-an-economic-hurricane-is-coming/

If you're paying attention, he predicts the next recession every year.

[Uncle Rico]

If you're paying attention, he predicts the next recession every year.

To be fair, for every boom, a bust follows, so he’ll be right eventually

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Job market still so strong that the market is foreseeing continued Fed tightening.

Meanwhile, maybe Elon is learning (doubtful, though) that being a raging egotistical a-hole and turning off the people most likely to buy your product is a bad business move.

[Hards Alumni]

8.6% inflation yoy this month.

o7 my portfolio

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Job market still so strong that the market is foreseeing continued Fed tightening.

Meanwhile, maybe Elon is learning (doubtful, though) that being a raging egotistical a-hole and turning off the people most likely to buy your product is a bad business move.

Presentations at my trade show earlier this week were bullish on the economy.  Short term and long term.  An outside economics agency from the UK reviewed the international Wire & Cable forecast.  China will be down about 2% due to "0" COVID policy.  First drop in decades plus.  Europe, South America, Africa and rest of Asia forecast were steady and North America is a super bright spot due to the Infrastructure Bill that will be funding all kinds of system upgrades for multiple multiple years.

[MU82]

Fed with a .75% hike. Mr. Market seems to like both the raise and what Powell said at his press conference ... but given the action over the previous many sessions, the .75 seemed pretty baked in.

[Hards Alumni]

Fed with a .75% hike. Mr. Market seems to like both the raise and what Powell said at his press conference ... but given the action over the previous many sessions, the .75 seemed pretty baked in.

Futures say otherwise this morning.

[MU82]

Futures say otherwise this morning.

Yeah, I just saw that. Late Wednesday love turns to early Thursday hate. Oh, that wacky Mr. Market. Trying to decide if I want to do a little buying today.

[Skatastrophy]

Anyone out here trying to catch a falling knife?

I'm just DCAing into my lazy portfolio through this, but prices on growth tech are making my mouth water.

[JWags85]

Anyone out here trying to catch a falling knife?

I'm just DCAing into my lazy portfolio through this, but prices on growth tech are making my mouth water.

Its ugly out there.  I know the market has conditioned everyone to buy the minute we get a sizeable pullback, but I don't love market conditions.  Powell actually handled himself well for once yesterday, hence the rally, but the reactions this morning can't be encouraging in any way.  There hasn't even been a minor bounce. 

If the SPX doesn't recover 3705 today or tomorrow, I think bleeding continues.  Not a lot to be bullish about

[Skatastrophy]

Its ugly out there.  I know the market has conditioned everyone to buy the minute we get a sizeable pullback, but I don't love market conditions.  Powell actually handled himself well for once yesterday, hence the rally, but the reactions this morning can't be encouraging in any way.  There hasn't even been a minor bounce. 

If the SPX doesn't recover 3705 today or tomorrow, I think bleeding continues.  Not a lot to be bullish about

The lack of any bulls in this market has me feeling like it's about time to buy. I'm just not willing to put my money where my mouth is.

[Tortuga94]

This is a note we sent to our clients on Tuesday.

U.S. equity markets tumbled today, Monday, June 13, continuing a sharp fall that started Friday following a hotter than expected inflation report showing prices rising at the highest rate since the early 1980s. In response, markets are recalibrating their expectations in anticipation of more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is scrambling to quell inflation after being surprised by the speed and intensity of price increases. The market now expects the Fed to increase its target rate by up to 0.75 percent at Wednesday’s meeting instead of the traditional and more gradual pace of 0.25 percent per meeting. We expect additional higher rate increases to follow as the Fed attempts to slow demand enough to dampen price increases.

Markets currently expect the Fed to hike rates above 3 percent this year, getting closer to 4 percent in 2023, well above estimates when rates start to become restrictive. This should start slowing the economy and in turn, inflation. There already are signs of moderating economic activity as higher mortgage rates are starting to dampen housing activity and jobless unemployment claims are ticking up. Retail inventories are rising, a sign of possible downward pressure prices. The outlook for energy and food prices, however, remain tethered
to geopolitical events in the near term, such as the war in Ukraine. Further energy price increases are possible through the summer. Also, supply chains remain vulnerable to continued lockdowns in China as the country seeks to control COVID outbreaks, which could further pressure inflation.

Our base case remains that the economy will slow meaningfully but avoid a recession, although the
probability of a recession has risen. While inflation is eating into consumer budgets, household balance sheets are in good shape in aggregate, with low debt levels and high savings. The job market remains strong. Corporate balance sheets also are strong. Should the economy tip over into a recession, the drawdown likely will be moderate given the relatively strong state of the economy outside of inflation and a lack of large structure imbalances.

With the S&P 500 down more than 21 percent year-to-date following the market close, and NASDAQ down more than 30 percent, equity valuations appear more attractive, having fallen from lofty levels. Investors, however, can expect continued volatility ahead until there are tangible signs that inflation is sustainably slowing.

As always, investors should have a long-term investment horizon and consult with a financial advisor, especially in periods of high market volatility.
 

[tower912]

I always appreciate your dispassionate, practical posts about investing.

As always, investors should have a long term investment horizon.

I love that.