Investing Thread

[rocky_warrior]

@JWags85 let us know.  I still can't fathom how any of this is good for business.

[jesmu84]

If the previous model was working, why are we in $35.8 trillion in debt?
Not saying Trump is going to make the USA a dominant manufacturing nation again.
The USA may very well be beyond the point of no return.
But an interesting experiment.
No one wants to pay more for products, but Trump realizes the nation is headed to the debt abyss. 

Can you explain how the national debt will be impacted by the currently proposed tariffs in the short and long term?

[forgetful]

I "lost"  over $100k this week.  Failed experiment.

I'm with you there. Also, I partly blame myself.

On Feb. 14th, I had some discusssions about wanting to shift all my investments to cash. Unfortunately, life got in the way, and was dealing with other emergencies and didn't have the bandwidth to deal with investments and didn't pull the trigger.

Hindsight is 20/20 and wish life didn't throw me a curveball at an in opportune time.

[rocky_warrior]

I'm with you there. Also, I partly blame myself.

On Feb. 14th, I had some discusssions about wanting to shift all my investments to cash. Unfortunately, life got in the way, and was dealing with other emergencies and didn't have the bandwidth to deal with investments and didn't pull the trigger.

Hindsight is 20/20 and wish life didn't throw me a curveball at an in opportune time.

I'm not certain your situation, and hopefully you can hold strong in your holdings.  I've tried to be clear that I expected a downturn here.  It probably won't end in a few days, but if you can hold for a year+ (don't try to hold me to a timeline here, I'm just a guy living in the wilderness) or even invest more in the next 8 months, I think all will be well.

[forgetful]

I'm not certain your situation, and hopefully you can hold strong in your holdings.  I've tried to be clear that I expected a downturn here.  It probably won't end in a few days, but if you can hold for a year+ (don't try to hold me to a timeline here, I'm just a guy living in the wilderness) or even invest more in the next 8 months, I think all will be well.

Fortunately, I'll be fine. If it was urgent, I would have gotten out (I'm intrinsically fairly conservative in investing). Instead, it is a would've/should've type situation.

I have years before I need to touch any of my funds and it is part of the reason that when life threw me a curveball, I simply said I will deal with this when I have a clearer head and more time to deal with it. I know that in time, all of this will self=correct, and the amount difference that I might have recouped if I timed things perfectly would not matter tremendously, and that I was unlikely to time things perfectly.

Simply one of those situations that in the interim, you wish you had pulled the trigger.

I honestly worry more about people who are not in my situation, that need these funds now and were harmed significantly. A lot of harm was done to some people and I truly don't understand why.

[NCMUFan]

Can you explain how the national debt will be impacted by the currently proposed tariffs in the short and long term?

Since I rely on AI this is what ChatGPT told me.

How Tariffs Might Affect the National Debt:
💵 Government Revenue:

Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods.

When the U.S. imposes tariffs, importers pay those taxes to the government.

That adds to federal revenue, in theory, which could be used to reduce the national debt.

[The Sultan]

Since I rely on AI this is what ChatGPT told me.

How Tariffs Might Affect the National Debt:
💵 Government Revenue:

Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods.

When the U.S. imposes tariffs, importers pay those taxes to the government.

That adds to federal revenue, in theory, which could be used to reduce the national debt.

But if the results is a slow down of economic activity, you are going to also lose a bunch of income tax revenue as well.

[NCMUFan]

ChatGPT is great.  Gives both sides of the coin.

[The Sultan]

ChatGPT is great.  Gives both sides of the coin.

"Yeah pretty much every economist thinks this is a really bad idea, but ChatGPT gives me a reason to not engage in any critical thinking."

[rocky_warrior]

Oh! Importers pay the tax.  That's a relief, sounds like it won't affect me at all! We should tax those damn importers even more, free money!

[NCMUFan]

From my most intelligent buddy, ChatGPT.

Will the USA stock market recover from the current USA tariffs?


ChatGPT said:
Whether the U.S. stock market will recover from the effects of current U.S. tariffs depends on several factors, but historically, markets are resilient and often do recover from policy shocks like tariffs over time.

Here's a breakdown of what could influence recovery:

📉 Short-Term Impact
Tariffs typically hurt trade-dependent sectors (like tech, agriculture, and manufacturing) because they raise the cost of doing business and can reduce demand for exports.

Investor sentiment can take a hit when geopolitical tensions rise, causing short-term volatility.

📈 Medium- to Long-Term Outlook
Market adaptability: Companies often adjust supply chains and pricing models to adapt to tariffs, which can soften the blow over time.

Fed policy & interest rates: If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or signals support for the economy, that can buoy the markets.

Global growth trends: If global economies remain stable or improve, international demand can offset some trade-related losses.

Tariff reversals or negotiations: If the U.S. and its trade partners (e.g. China, the EU) reach agreements, optimism could return quickly to markets.

💬 What Analysts Typically Look At
Earnings reports: Are companies still making money despite tariffs?

Consumer spending: Is the U.S. consumer (a major economic driver) still strong?

Labor market: A strong job market tends to support the market even with headwinds like tariffs.

👀 TL;DR
Yes, the U.S. stock market can and likely will recover from current tariffs if other fundamentals remain strong. Tariffs may cause turbulence, but they rarely derail markets permanently unless paired with a broader economic crisis.

[The Sultan]

Look, a good portion of my family has its roots in the unionized, blue collar labor in the Milwaukee area. The disintegration of that had profound economic impacts that took a long time for them to manage. But they all found their way and are living and/or retired comfortably.

The idea that we can turn the clock back 50+ years when our society is no longer set up to support such an economy is just nostalgic nonsense. You're not bringing Allis-Chalmers or Briggs & Stratton back. Who is going to want to work those jobs anyway? Not to mention the City of Milwaukee has figured it out.

[rocky_warrior]

From my most intelligent buddy, ChatGPT.

Wow, if this is your best defense of tariffs, I'm even more concerned.

[jesmu84]

Since I rely on AI this is what ChatGPT told me.

How Tariffs Might Affect the National Debt:
💵 Government Revenue:

Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods.

When the U.S. imposes tariffs, importers pay those taxes to the government.

That adds to federal revenue, in theory, which could be used to reduce the national debt.

"Might", "in theory", "could".

Bruh

[Jockey]

I'd be embarrassed to have a post with my name on it that included "analysis" from ChatGPT.

[MU82]

The good news is that "importers" never pass on higher costs to consumers. Neither do corporations.

It's all free money, each of us is about to get richer thanks to the tariffs, and our national debt is as good as gone.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I actually had to download and read part of that.  What you say appears factual.

https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHAPTER-26.pdf

Though I'm still trying to understand the Heard and McDonald Islands.

F'ing penguins, man, they deserve it.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

If the previous model was working, why are we in $35.8 trillion in debt?

Ummm, well, in Clinton's final year, the U.S. actually started to run a surplus. Can you identify what changed at that point from a policy perspective?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Since I rely on AI this is what ChatGPT told me.

How Tariffs Might Affect the National Debt:
💵 Government Revenue:

Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods.

When the U.S. imposes tariffs, importers pay those taxes to the government.

That adds to federal revenue, in theory, which could be used to reduce the national debt.

Go back and review the Ferris Beuhler clip

[TSmith34, Inc.]

If the previous model was working, why are we in $35.8 trillion in debt?
Not saying Trump is going to make the USA a dominant manufacturing nation again.
The USA may very well be beyond the point of no return.
But an interesting experiment.
No one wants to pay more for products, but Trump realizes the nation is headed to the debt abyss. 

And I will say again, the vast majority of people are yet again falling for Trump's framing that this has anything to do with restoring manufacturing or reducing the debt.

But that is a discussion for a politics board.

[Pakuni]

If the previous model was working, why are we in $35.8 trillion in debt?
Not saying Trump is going to make the USA a dominant manufacturing nation again.
The USA may very well be beyond the point of no return.
But an interesting experiment.
No one wants to pay more for products, but Trump realizes the nation is headed to the debt abyss. 

Explain the current budget proposals in light of the bolded statement.

[MU82]

Here's Ross Douthat, one of the NYTimes' conservative columnists, on whether the tariffs can help with the U.S. deficit or debt:

I am extremely skeptical of any plan that treats pre-emptive global disruption as the key to avoiding a deficit crisis down the road. The "instigate a crisis now before our position weakens" has a poor track record in real wars — I don't think trade wars are necessarily different.

The "Nixon shock" was forced upon his presidency to a degree that this shock is not being forced on Trump — and it took a very difficult decade, not just a difficult few months, before the U.S. economy began to clearly rise again. In the current environment, a Trump presidency that produces recession or stagflation is very unlikely to have a successor eager to see Trump's trade policy through. And meanwhile China stands ready to welcome nations that prefer to bandwagon against us rather than coming to terms.

Miran, in his crucial paper, seemed to partially agree with my aversion to crisis, suggesting that any sweeping tariff system be phased in gradually, with steps to "mitigate any adverse consequences" and potential "impacts of such a system on global markets."

But the choice has been made, as once before by a Republican administration, for shock and awe instead. I hope this gamble has a better end.

[reinko]

I for one can't wait to work 16 hours a day working in an iPhone factory putting in tiny little screws, the real American dream.



https://x.com/atrupar/status/1908895557973598536?s=46

[The Sultan]

Someone needs to let me know why this is even something we want as a policy goal? It's all just vibes instead of sound social and economic policy.

Why should we make iPhones here?

[Jay Bee]

Look, a good portion of my family has its roots in the unionized, blue collar labor in the Milwaukee area.

Ewww, gross