Investing Thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

You mean to tell me there are no conservative pols left in America who will stand up to something that is so undeniably harmful to the U.S. (and the world's) economy?

No. Or at least, so very, very few it doesn't matter. In the Senate, 4 voted to block the tariffs on Canada, one of which is retiring anyway, or about 7.5%. I suspect it will be a lower percentage in the House, but the ability to even hold a vote is being blocked at the moment.

Maybe we will reach a tipping point, but nothing hints that that is likely to happen until the economy is a smoking ruin, and maybe not even then.

[reinko]

Clearly not a speciality of mine; I just don't know what the long game is.  Okay let's say Nike reshores hundreds of thousands of jobs.  These now American jobs pay what, $30 an hour? Sure, some higher than others, but let's use Nike or Gap or other consumable good.

Okay, well now Nike STILL has to pay these American wages, which I'm guessing is at least 10x the cost of labor in Vietnam, so the cost to the customer still remains high, but now we have a bunch of low and middle skilled jobs (making $300 sneakers instead $100 sneakers) coupled with a historically low unemployment rate, all the while we deport hundreds of thousands who are primarily doing very low skilled jobs??  Am I missing anything??

[tower912]

Nike has already said they will not be bringing jobs back to the US.   

[jesmu84]

Again we're applying the lens of logical actors  to this. I suppose this could be another case of Tr*mp threatening, receiving token gesture that was already happening, and then declaring victory.

I'm dubious though, as no country is playing ball here. Further, you can't bully companies en masse to magically divert capital and re-shore. Companies have spent the past decade moving toward models they thought would insulate themselves from these sorts of headwinds by moving out of China to Thailand, to assembly operations in the US, all to find it's all a waste. The death of tempered predictability is the death of the markets we've enjoyed for most of the last 80 years

Yes. Among others here, you and I are on the same page.

I wanted dgies answer

[reinko]

Nike has already said they will not be bringing jobs back to the US.   

It's an exxxxxxammmmmppplllleee Tower 🤪

[tower912]

I knooooooowwwwww.

[forgetful]

To highlight how things are different this time, and may not return to the norm.

China, South Korea, and Japan are drawing closer together.


These are somewhat surprising outcomes, and could be a harbinger of what these tariffs mean for global economies. Namely, a move away from the US, and a strengthening of China.

[forgetful]

To highlight how things are different this time, and may not return to the norm.

China, South Korea, and Japan are drawing closer together.

https://apnews.com/article/japan-china-south-korea-foreign-ministers-313665d1a611abeb42180245d7e167f1

These are somewhat surprising outcomes, and could be a harbinger of what these tariffs mean for global economies. Namely, a move away from the US, and a strengthening of China.

Meant to add the link above.

[The Sultan]

It was hubris to think that countries would simply cave and not retaliate. This is an own goal right up there with "we will be greeted as liberators."

[tower912]

It was hubris to think that countries would simply cave and not retaliate. This is an own goal right up there with "we will be greeted as liberators."

There is that word again.  I do not think it means what they think it means.

[MU82]

You mean to tell me there are no conservative pols left in America who will stand up to something that is so undeniably harmful to the U.S. (and the world's) economy?

A few are starting to speak out. Even Ted Cruz called the tariffs damaging. But he was still too wimpy to support a resolution against them. (Rand Paul and Susan Collins did.) Most are far too cowed by their party leader, who rules by fear, control and retribution.

Based on history, you're completely wrong.  For the last 18 months, we were told what economic policy would be moving forward.  We were told these idiotic measure were coming.  Everyone said it wouldn't happen.  Everyone said no one is dumb enough to use tariffs in such a regressive fashion.  The people implementing them said they were going to do this.  And now we're being told by the biggest supporters of tariffs that personal wealth isn't as important as American independence, whatever that means.

When you have economic buffoons in charge of things, the market and economy will suffer.  But like I say, don't be poor. 

Yep. Just as with Project 2025, they told us what they would do. We needed to believe them then, and we need to believe them now.

What is the point of broad temporary tarrifs with no underlying industrial policy? What's the short and long term goal of that?

Yep. These factories that are gonna return to America are as make-believe as the formula used to calculate the tariffs.

But here's something interesting ...

According to a Wall Street Journal poll, 54% of Americans surveyed opposed the tariffs. About 75% say tariffs will raise prices on the things they buy (up from 68% in a January poll). They also want checks on his power: 62% say he shouldn't close federal agencies without approval from Congress, while 58% say he must comply with court rulings that limit his actions.

Notably, the WSJ survey was conducted from March 27 through April 1 - when the White House occupant was promising massive tariffs but before he actually announced them Wednesday. New polling should be quite illuminating.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

To highlight how things are different this time, and may not return to the norm.

China, South Korea, and Japan are drawing closer together.


These are somewhat surprising outcomes, and could be a harbinger of what these tariffs mean for global economies. Namely, a move away from the US, and a strengthening of China.

Yep

[rocky_warrior]

One plea, try to keep this to investing, tariffs are affecting that. Some of you are straying to just complain about a guy - watch it.

These are somewhat surprising outcomes, and could be a harbinger of what these tariffs mean for global economies. Namely, a move away from the US, and a strengthening of China.

Frankly, if I was another country, I'd just look to sell my goods elsewhere too.. F the US.

On that note, I'm practicing my recipes based solely on corn and grains (shrug).

[tower912]

Frankly, if I was another country, I'd just look to sell my goods elsewhere too.. F the US.

If Europe bands together and says F the US, they win.  If Asia bands together and says F the US, they win.



Well, Asia banded together once before in the heat of the moment.  Can they do it again?  Only time will tell.

If Europe does?  Could be the final countdown.

[Shaka Shart]

One plea, try to keep this to investing, tariffs are affecting that. Some of you are straying to just complain about a guy - watch it.

Frankly, if I was another country, I'd just look to sell my goods elsewhere too.. F the US.

On that note, I'm practicing my recipes based solely on corn and grains (shrug).

High fructose corn syrup is my birthright as a white American

[Shaka Shart]

Clearly not a speciality of mine; I just don't know what the long game is.  Okay let's say Nike reshores hundreds of thousands of jobs.  These now American jobs pay what, $30 an hour? Sure, some higher than others, but let's use Nike or Gap or other consumable good.

Okay, well now Nike STILL has to pay these American wages, which I'm guessing is at least 10x the cost of labor in Vietnam, so the cost to the customer still remains high, but now we have a bunch of low and middle skilled jobs (making $300 sneakers instead $100 sneakers) coupled with a historically low unemployment rate, all the while we deport hundreds of thousands who are primarily doing very low skilled jobs??  Am I missing anything??

This was what I was alluding to with my prior car example. Either way it's higher prices sticking. It's not going to go back down without SIGNIFICANT quality decreases.

Which looking at our tech companies seems to be the business plan but anyway.

I don't know if it's a nefarious tanking or what but I've yet to get a coherent (coherent being an assumption that might not be in play) explanation in simple economics why this helps anyone but our adversaries

[GB Warrior]

High fructose corn syrup is my birthright as a white American

When do you take your birthright trip to Hershey

[Shaka Shart]

When do you take your birthright trip to Hershey

When my Boeing 737 Max crashes there after being incorrectly diverted by ATC from Newark

[Jockey]

The GOP tax law enacted in December 2017 created clear incentives for American-based corporations to move operations and jobs abroad, including a zero percent tax rate on many profits generated offshore.

Now we are told the point is to bring jobs back.

Huh?!!!

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Yep. These factories that are gonna return to America are as make-believe as the formula used to calculate the tariffs.

I keep thinking of Rodney Dangerfield in Back to School.

"Where are you building this factory, Fantasyland?"

[jesmu84]

Re: prices

If I'm a US consumer goods manufacturer, and all my foreign competition has to raise their prices 25% (or more), I'm just gonna raise mine 10-15% because I can.

I'll grab market share cause I'm the cheapest, but still increase profits.

As someone else already said, higher prices for consumers no matter what

[GB Warrior]

Re: prices

If I'm a US consumer goods manufacturer, and all my foreign competition has to raise their prices 25% (or more), I'm just gonna raise mine 10-15% because I can.

I'll grab market share cause I'm the cheapest, but still increase profits.

As someone else already said, higher prices for consumers no matter what

Are you suggesting companies may be taking advantage of inflationary environments

[Skatastrophy]

Are you suggesting companies may be taking advantage of inflationary environments

Consumer expectations set prices. There's no "appropriate" profit margin, no matter what pearl clutchers say.

[rocky_warrior]

There's no "appropriate" profit margin,

At MUScoop, we believe in inappropriate profit margins.  Sorry, and thanks.

[Pakuni]

I keep thinking of Rodney Dangerfield in Back to School.

"Where are you building this factory, Fantasyland?"

And you know what America is going to need to operate these new factories? Lots and lots of immigrants.