Investing Thread

[Skatastrophy]

It's a worthwhile exercise to discuss (yes, on a politics board).

Meanwhile, the one day sample size was actually a positive for my 401k so must mean it's working!

One day where US equities droped 5%+ and international dropped 2%+ was a positive for your 401k? Maybe you're invested in mutual funds that are only revalued after EOB?

[MU82]

One day where US equities droped 5%+ and international dropped 2%+ was a positive for your 401k? Maybe you're invested in mutual funds that are only revalued after EOB?

I was only down 0.3% for the reasons I explained earlier - lots of boring, defensive stocks, plus a decent amount of cash.

PM, UNH, JNJ, KO, NEE, MCD was each up over 2% and each is a large position in my portfolio. Other large holdings - XEL, PG, PEP, MO, SO - had gains of at least 1.3%.

I usually outperform, often significantly, when the market struggles.
As a "penalty," I accept that my portfolio usually underperforms during raging bull markets.

[Shaka Shart]

One day where US equities droped 5%+ and international dropped 2%+ was a positive for your 401k? Maybe you're invested in mutual funds that are only revalued after EOB?

GBwarrior is 100% crypto invested

[GB Warrior]

GBwarrior is 100% crypto invested

I hedge against my enemies (capitalism)

[cheebs09]

Live look at the market today

[TSmith34, Inc.]

That's not the subject we were discussing. The subject was someone fleeing to 40% cash holdings because they were/are afraid, instead of sticking to their investment plan. Mistake, IMO, unless they are planning to spend the cash in the next 12 months.

People who flee to cash have the problem of not knowing when to buy again. I know I have that problem, so they'll miss the run-up again. Timing the market is a monster mistake unless you're very lucky.

Do whatever, though, it's not my money.

The choice for weathering the storm is holding the cash of 1 country, or investing in globally diversified monster companies run by the best CEOs available. Easy choice.

Throughout my work life, I've adhered to what you describe here--never tried to time the market (other than via tiny bets on options), always held very little cash and was fully invested. Even during down times--internet bubble, 2009 credit freeze, Great Recession-- I stuck to my guns and believed the market would work itself out.

Not this time. This was different. I've taken a gradual approach--too gradual, in hindsight--in moving towards cash and bonds. I fully believed Trump was going to do what he said he was going to do on the campaign trail, I should have been more aggressive in positioning my portfolio.

This isn't about trying to time the market, it's about listening to and believing a person who says they intend to crash the economy.

So yes, I was and am afraid and fled to cash. Wish I had been more afraid and fled faster.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Interesting read, thanks.

IMO, reducing the deficit and bringing back manufacturing are not the purpose behind the tariffs, any more than DOGE is about improving government efficiency.

I'll leave it at that lest I get a non-Arbys suspension.

[Jockey]

Throughout my work life, I've adhered to what you describe here--never tried to time the market (other than via tiny bets on options), always held very little cash and was fully invested. Even during down times--internet bubble, 2009 credit freeze, Great Recession-- I stuck to my guns and believed the market would work itself out.

Not this time. This was different. I've taken a gradual approach--too gradual, in hindsight--in moving towards cash and bonds. I fully believed Trump was going to do what he said he was going to do on the campaign trail, I should have been more aggressive in positioning my portfolio.

This isn't about trying to time the market, it's about listening to and believing a person who says they intend to crash the economy.

So yes, I was and am afraid and fled to cash. Wish I had been more afraid and fled faster.

I agree 100%. I said as much in a much shorter post yesterday. In November - for the 1st time ever - I went against my financial advisor's advice and converted to more cash. I thought then, and still do, that a 5.6% guarantee was a way better option than what I anticipated would happen.

So I would like to ask 2 questions:

1) Why hasn't Sultan attacked you for saying the same thing I did? This one is rhetorical-we know he's just a d*ck.

2. I think most of the people in this thread are traditionalists. We can always look at historical data for comfort. Is it time to change that kind of thinking and look at what is happening now and how it is different.

[The Sultan]

1) Why hasn't Sultan attacked you for saying the same thing I did? This one is rhetorical-we know he's just a d*ck.

Oh I'll answer this. You have a history of providing vacuous political statements, and have no history of providing anything substantive in this topic. Or any topic really.

I hope this helps.

[MUBurrow]

I think most of the people in this thread are traditionalists. We can always look at historical data for comfort. Is it time to change that kind of thinking and look at what is happening now and how it is different.

Haha this is great.

[MU82]

Right now, the average American is saying:

"You know, while my portfolio declines a bazillion percent over 2 days, all I can think of is, 'Gee, I sure hope TikTok is saved.'"

(Sadly, that probably is what lots of Americans are saying.)

[The Sultan]

Right now, the average American is saying:

"You know, while my portfolio declines a bazillion percent over 2 days, all I can think of is, 'Gee, I sure hope TikTok is saved.'"

(Sadly, that probably is what lots of Americans are saying.)

Most Americans have no idea how fundamentally the last couple of days changes things for both the American and world economy. Either people who know better need to be brave, step up, and talk about this, or the damage may be irreverseable.

[Jockey]

Most Americans have no idea how fundamentally the last couple of days changes things for both the American and world economy. Either people who know better need to be brave, step up, and talk about this, or the damage may be irreverseable.

Pretty much the same as what I said, despite your usual insult. If the damage may be irreversible, as we both say, is it time to change our investment strategy? I am an idiot when it comes to investing - hence why I have a financial advisor - but we have several very knowledgeable here whose opinions would be respected.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Most Americans have no idea how fundamentally the last couple of days changes things for both the American and world economy. Either people who know better need to be brave, step up, and talk about this, or the damage may be irreverseable.

I agree. This isn't a case where if the tariffs were immediately lifted, everything would go back to normal. The market might have a rubber band-like snapback in the short-term, but the US is now a fundamentally untrustworthy trading partner (amongst other things) and other countries are working on shifting their supply chains.

The damage being caused now, tariffs being just one facet, will take decades to reverse, if it is even possible at all.

[The Sultan]

I agree. This isn't a case where if the tariffs were immediately lifted, everything would go back to normal. The market might have a rubber band-like snapback in the short-term, but the US is now a fundamentally untrustworthy trading partner (amongst other things) and other countries are working on shifting their supply chains.

The damage being caused now, tariffs being just one facet, will take decades to reverse, if it is even possible at all.

Don't forget the advantages we have gained by being the world's reserve currency.

[Uncle Rico]

I agree. This isn't a case where if the tariffs were immediately lifted, everything would go back to normal. The market might have a rubber band-like snapback in the short-term, but the US is now a fundamentally untrustworthy trading partner (amongst other things) and other countries are working on shifting their supply chains.

The damage being caused now, tariffs being just one facet, will take decades to reverse, if it is even possible at all.

I doubt America will make the same mistakes again

[GB Warrior]

I doubt America will make the same mistakes again

Not in our nature. Whenever we've made mistakes, we just re-write the rules that make those mistakes correct.

[MU82]

I doubt this is "irreversible" - at least not as far as the stock market is concerned. (And this is the Investing Thread.)

The market has been through great tests and turbulence and tumult, through wars and pandemics and terrible policies and political upheaval ... and still, given even a little time, it's always gone up.

A fun exercise is to look at a market chart from the last 80 years. Things like Black Monday and the Covid crash - each of which was catastrophic at the time - look like little blips over time. Even the dot-com bust and the Great Recession don't look so angry.

As I said earlier in the thread, before I went to bed Wednesday night, I put in several "hero" orders at about 10% lower prices. Only one hit Thursday - for AMZN at 177. So last night, I put in some more orders at 5-10% (depending on the stock) lower than they had closed in Thursday's session. A few hit today - META at 505, AAPL at 193, AMZN at 167, CRM at 242 and NVDA at 93. All the while, I still have a goodly amount of cash.

At least that's how I'm approaching things as an investor. If I'm wrong, then my kids' inheritance will be a little smaller.

I wish all y'all good fortune.

[Hards Alumni]

Trust is earned, not given.

[Shaka Shart]

Trust is earned, not given.

Unless you are Parham on the perimeter

[jesmu84]

Is this all a step toward the mar a Lago accord?

Meanwhile, the wealthy are excited because any recession/depression allows them to buy more assets?

[GB Warrior]

Is this all a step toward the mar a Lago accord?

Meanwhile, the wealthy are excited because any recession/depression allows them to buy more assets?

This is all an effort to smoke people out and into submission. With the side benefit of if it gets really bad, a portion of the population might blame the international community for their problems. Surely not something this administration wants.

[SoCalEagle]

Remove all these tariffs and the value of the stock market is the same as it was before the tariffs, right? 

Except for those who lost their jobs, the ill will with the international community, domestic business investment completely undermined, and the lack of trust with our trading partners. 

Folks, if any of us think this will turn around any time soon, I fear we are in for a big surprise. 

[Dish]

Probably not enough time left in the day, but we're getting close to a halt circuit breaker. It'd hit at 7% on the S&P, we're at 5.6% as I write this.

[GB Warrior]

Probably not enough time left in the day, but we're getting close to a halt circuit breaker. It'd hit at 7% on the S&P, we're at 5.6% as I write this.

Tired of all the winning