Investing Thread

[MU82]

I put in a few "hero" limit orders to see if I can pick up something cheap tomorrow. I'm talking at least 10% below today's closing prices. It's all stocks I already own.

Frankly, I doubt any will hit ... but we'll see.

[jesmu84]

The first time we crashed in 2009 my 401k was useless anyways.

Thank God I get to feel real pain this time around. Felt like a poser.

Being a millennial has been super fun financially

[Uncle Rico]

Being a millennial has been super fun financially

Boomers ruin everything

[muwarrior69]

@rocky_warrior if I post on scoop from Europe during my work trip will you ge burdened with a tariff because you are the customer to all our good posts?

Hmm...does Marquette now have to pay a tariff on Ben Gold?

[GB Warrior]

Hmm...does Marquette now have to pay a tariff on Ben Gold?

Reeks of unfair trade practices

[The Sultan]

I've read a bit about what the tarrifs are trying to accomplish:

1. Increase federal revenues and possibly allow elimination of income tax
2. Incentivize on-shoring/increase in domestic manufacturing
3. Put pressure on foreign nations to change their internal policies in alignment with USA preferences (Mexico and Canada doing more to stop flow of fentanyl into USA, for example)

Can anyone explain cause it seems like those conflict with one another?

You are making the assumption that a lot of thorough planning went into this.

[Hards Alumni]

You are making the assumption that a lot of thorough planning went into this.

And I think you're missing that this has been planned for some time.

Ruining the global economy is a big part of what is planned.

Now to walk away before I get roped into no-no posting.

[The Sultan]

And I think you're missing that this has been planned for some time.

Ruining the global economy is a big part of what is planned.

Now to walk away before I get roped into no-no posting.

Oh I know its been planned for sometime. But that doesn't mean the planning has been logical and the consequences have been thought through.

[Hards Alumni]

Oh I know its been planned for sometime. But that doesn't mean the planning has been logical and the consequences have been thought through.

Oh, I fully disagree. 

[Uncle Rico]

Oh, I fully disagree. 

It's an interesting discussion.

On the one hand, incompetence and idiocy is a trademark of the planners as evidenced by the last two months.

There's also the reality of who will benefit most from global economic anarchy.  Hint: it isn't the average investor.

That's why you should be rich and not poor.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I've read a bit about what the tarrifs are trying to accomplish:

1. Increase federal revenues and possibly allow elimination of income tax
2. Incentivize on-shoring/increase in domestic manufacturing
3. Put pressure on foreign nations to change their internal policies in alignment with USA preferences (Mexico and Canada doing more to stop flow of fentanyl into USA, for example)

Can anyone explain cause it seems like those conflict with one another?

Income taxes were implemented because tariffs don't bring anything anywhere close to the needed revenue to run a government.

So much for the inflation.  Higher prices are here to stay.  If things are on-shored that means the higher prices are needed for the company to be profitable.  On-shoring would only end up being a small percentage of companies anyway because the ROI and payback still won't be there to fund new factory build even with higher prices.  (The CHIPS Act pays for the new on-shore factory builds.)  I've been in manufacturing my whole career and have had this discussion with differing people in differing industries who all say the same.  Where are the workers coming from since there is a shortage of needed labor in factories already. 

Firm diplomacy targeted would accomplish the same if tried.

Hopefully I'm not crossing a Scoop line and getting called for out-of-bounds. 

What's the market going to do today after this?

[The Sultan]

On-shoring also won't work because businesses aren't going to believe for a second that these are permanent, so they aren't going to make the investment to move significant amounts of manufacturing stateside. If the economy struggles, and inflation isn't dealt with, there is going to be massive pressure even prior to 2026 to lift these.

[rocky_warrior]

I put in a few "hero" limit orders to see if I can pick up something cheap tomorrow. I'm talking at least 10% below today's closing prices. It's all stocks I already own.

Frankly, I doubt any will hit ... but we'll see.

You might get some AAPL...

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Also to note, I've worked for a German company the last 10 months where most of my competitors in the USA are other foreign companies.  They will all be stuck with paying the same tariffs.  There is one USA manufacturer.  It took 3 years and new capacity finally came online in 2024 but it only increased it by 15% or so. 
Lastly, early indications make it sound like it will help open Asia up to more business for my company displacing American companies.

[MU82]

You might get some AAPL...

Didn't quite get to my limit order price on AAPL, not yet anyway. Or on the others I targeted - META, HD, GOOGL, CRM, NVDA, V, CSX.

Got pretty darn close on several of them. Now I'm trying to decide if I want to adjust slightly and maybe buy a little less of a few of these at a little bit higher prices today and could always add more if prices go down even further in the coming days.

This is NOT how I typically invest, as I'm not a "trader." I'm more of a long-term investor who tries to avoid "noise." But I do like to take advantage of opportunities that can help create long-term wealth, such as the corrections of 2022, 2020 and obviously 2008-09.

Here's analysis of the investing opportunity by Wedbush's Dan Ives, who believes the tariffs will be short-lived:

"If you start with that assumption, then the massive sell-off today (and potentially over the coming days) is a major buying opportunity to own the best tech winners on sale for a policy that will be temporary and not permanent. Especially China exposed names like Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, TSMC, and a host of other tech and supply chain names will be the most under pressure as worries about this China 34% tariff (could be 54% when adding the baseline) and 32% Taiwan tariff are almost hard to look at."

Of the tariffs from other countries presented at the Rose Garden yesterday, he said:

"They are a convoluted set of numbers/calculations that appear to be taking each nation's trade surplus by their total imports with the US. To be clear, these are not the actual tariff rates. If a 9th grader in high school presented this tariff chart to a teacher in a basic economics class the teacher would laugh and say sit down and work on the assignment."

I own a lot of defensive stocks - utilities, healthcare, consumer Staples - and believe it or not many of those are not only up but up 1.5% to 2% or more. Times like these make me glad that I'm a boring investor who owns mostly blue-chip, dividend-growing companies.

[rocky_warrior]

This is NOT how I typically invest, as I'm not a "trader." I'm more of a long-term investor who tries to avoid "noise." But I do like to take advantage of opportunities that can help create long-term wealth, such as the corrections of 2022, 2020 and obviously 2008-09.

I'm not rushing in, I think there's a bit more downside to go.  Of course, that's just a WAG, time will tell.

[Jockey]

Hmm...does Marquette now have to pay a tariff on Ben Gold?

No,Dummy. We get a tax break on him now.

[Jockey]

Oh, I fully disagree. 

I couldn't agree more (with Hards).

[MU82]

I'm not rushing in, I think there's a bit more downside to go.  Of course, that's just a WAG, time will tell.

Oh, I'm not rushing in, either. Most countries haven't even responded yet with reciprocal tariffs - a few of which might actually come close to the make-believe numbers that were presented yesterday.

Since my previous comment, my smallish AMZN order did hit at 177. So that's one for the books.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Firm diplomacy targeted would accomplish the same if tried.

You've seen how they do diplomacy, right?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

You might get some AAPL...

Or any small cap; the Russell is taking an even worse beating than the broader market.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I own a lot of defensive stocks - utilities, healthcare, consumer Staples - and believe it or not many of those are not only up but up 1.5% to 2% or more. Times like these make me glad that I'm a boring investor who owns mostly blue-chip, dividend-growing companies.

I moved to nearly 40% cash over the last month or so (good) and also shifted money to foreign stocks (hasn't helped). Certainly my defensive stocks, especially health care, have held up well. But I have a couple headscratchers:

I have a couple of green energy stocks which have actually held up fine since January, which I don't fully understand to be honest. Also, my BDCs have held up relatively well while banks and even my KKR have been taken out for a beating. Not at all sure why either of those categories are doing OK.

[MU82]

I moved to nearly 40% cash over the last month or so (good) and also shifted money to foreign stocks (hasn't helped). Certainly my defensive stocks, especially health care, have held up well. But I have a couple headscratchers:

I have a couple of green energy stocks which have actually held up fine since January, which I don't fully understand to be honest. Also, my BDCs have held up relatively well while banks and even my KKR have been taken out for a beating. Not at all sure why either of those categories are doing OK.

Mr. Market works in mysterious ways sometimes.

Surprised to hear that your investment in foreign stocks hasn't gone at least reasonably well. Or maybe you're just talking about today.

I also am quite cash-heavy and am trying to be patient to re-deploy some of it. I don't have enough knowledge about small-cap stocks to invest in them; I try to stay within my circle of competence, and even that's pretty small!

[Skatastrophy]

Mr. Market works in mysterious ways sometimes.

Surprised to hear that your investment in foreign stocks hasn't gone at least reasonably well. Or maybe you're just talking about today.

I also am quite cash-heavy and am trying to be patient to re-deploy some of it. I don't have enough knowledge about small-cap stocks to invest in them; I try to stay within my circle of competence, and even that's pretty small!

Foreign equities are only up ~5% since like November (from my poor recollection)

I would not be holding USD right now, TSmith. The people in leadership's stated goal is to depress the dollar to fix the trade deficit. Check out the mar a lago accords. Here's a piece by an Aussie think tank - https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/unpacking-mar-lago-accord

[tower912]

$2 trillion....pffft.