Investing Thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yep. Just as with Project 2025, they told us what they would do. We needed to believe them then, and we need to believe them now.

Actually, this *is* Project 2025. It's laid out starting on page 765 in a chapter written by Peter Navarro . That chapter even specifies that the tariff amounts would be based on trade deficits with each country, which they are, and not based on reciprocal tariffs as Trump is falsely claiming.

[rocky_warrior]

Actually, this *is* Project 2025. It's laid out starting on page 765 in a chapter written by Peter Navarro . That chapter even specifies that the tariff amounts would be based on trade deficits with each country, which they are, and not based on reciprocal tariffs as Trump is falsely claiming.

I actually had to download and read part of that.  What you say appears factual.

https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHAPTER-26.pdf

Though I'm still trying to understand the Heard and McDonald Islands.

[Shaka Shart]

I actually had to download and read part of that.  What you say appears factual.

https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHAPTER-26.pdf

Media bought the below quote hook line and sinker too

"Mr. Trump wrote in a post on his social media site that he knew nothing about Project 2025 but also that he disagreed with parts of it: "Some of the things they're saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal." He did not specify which items he was talking about.

After weeks of criticism, Project 2025's director, Paul Dans, stepped down in July. The Trump campaign said the project's demise "would be greatly welcomed.""

On the bright side, my fellow scoopers and I add some monthly liquidity to our savings when they criminalize pornography.

[rocky_warrior]

Weird, I feel like I just said something you should have heard.

[NCMUFan]

Re: prices

If I'm a US consumer goods manufacturer, and all my foreign competition has to raise their prices 25% (or more), I'm just gonna raise mine 10-15% because I can.

I'll grab market share cause I'm the cheapest, but still increase profits.

As someone else already said, higher prices for consumers no matter what

Right, so now the advantage goes to the USA manufacturer versus the foreign manufacturer.
Same game, just advantage goes to a different player.

[rocky_warrior]

Right, so now the advantage goes to the USA manufacturer versus the foreign manufacturer.
Same game, just advantage goes to a different player.

I'll accept that... But what do we manufacturer that I'm not already buying?

[cheebs09]

Also, I'd be willing to bet that even if it's manufactured in the US, the bulk of the components are coming from international suppliers.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Right, so now the advantage goes to the USA manufacturer versus the foreign manufacturer.
Same game, just advantage goes to a different player.

Paid for by you.

[NCMUFan]

If the previous model was working, why are we in $35.8 trillion in debt?
Not saying Trump is going to make the USA a dominant manufacturing nation again.
The USA may very well be beyond the point of no return.
But an interesting experiment.
No one wants to pay more for products, but Trump realizes the nation is headed to the debt abyss. 

[The Sultan]

If the previous model was working, why are we in $35.8 trillion in debt?
Not saying Trump is going to make the USA a dominant manufacturing nation again.
The USA may very well be beyond the point of no return.
But an interesting experiment.
No one wants to pay more for products, but Trump realizes the nation is headed to the debt abyss. 

How is the federal debt in any way tied to the lack of tariffs? Good lord.

[rocky_warrior]

If the previous model was working, why are we in $35.8 trillion in debt?
Not saying Trump is going to make the USA a dominant manufacturing nation again.
The USA may very well be beyond the point of no return.
But an interesting experiment.
No one wants to pay more for products, but Trump realizes the nation is headed to the debt abyss. 

I not going to ban here for straying from tariffs and investing.  But I will suggest the trade deficit will not be fixed by this action. We don't produce enough for our own citizens to buy.

See my corn / grains comment.

[GB Warrior]

I not going to ban here for straying from tariffs and investing.  But I will suggest the trade deficit will not be fixed by this action. We don't produce enough for our own citizens to buy.

See my corn / grains comment.

Clearly political and also really nonsensically fcking stupid take.

[The Sultan]

I not going to ban here for straying from tariffs and investing.  But I will suggest the trade deficit will not be fixed by this action. We don't produce enough for our own citizens to buy.

See my corn / grains comment.

There is nothing to be fixed. We are just buying stuff. That is why this action is just misguided. There is nothing wrong with a trade deficit.

[rocky_warrior]

Clearly political and also really nonsensically fcking stupid take.

I allow a LOT of leeway here.  NCMUs side has been under-represented.  He now knows the bounds.

[NCMUFan]

Ok, nothing like the moderator saying there is sides.

[rocky_warrior]

Ok, nothing like the moderator saying there is sides.

I'm not dumb, yo.  But I am willing to entertain some investing positives from these tariffs.  I haven't heard it yet.

[NCMUFan]

Maybe there is maybe there isn't.
I believe it is an experiment.
To be determined.

[rocky_warrior]

Maybe there is maybe there isn't.
I believe it is an experiment.
To be determined.

I "lost"  over $100k this week.  Failed experiment.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I'm not dumb, yo.  But I am willing to entertain some investing positives from these tariffs.  I haven't heard it yet.

Largest tax increase in recent history should bring the deficit down.

There are reasons 'experiments' are done in labs on a small scale before making bigger. 

[The Sultan]

Maybe there is maybe there isn't.
I believe it is an experiment.
To be determined.

An experiment? We have had the best economy the world has ever seen, and every economist who knows anything said this would be the result.

[GB Warrior]

If there's one thing that's been obvious over the past several weeks, it's a strong belief in the scientific method

[tower912]

Maybe there is maybe there isn't.
I believe it is an experiment.
To be determined.

Make the case.

[MU82]

Curious if anybody bought any stocks or funds on Friday during the carnage.

I added a little AMZN, V, META, NVDA and CRM. Oh, and AAPL in honor of Heisey McSmuggles.

I probably coulda been more patient, but these are long-term investments. I was a little early with some buys in 2022, 2020 and 2009, too, but they all ended up being great long-term winners.

[rocky_warrior]

Curious if anybody bought any stocks or funds on Friday during the carnage.

I bought more VOO and SPLG S&P index funds. A couple shares of SJNK, but that's cuz it was leftover funds and less than $25.

[JWags85]

I'm not speaking for or against the tariffs, but there is still a lot of stuff to be sorted in particular situations, which makes me interested to see whats going to happen and think it will show more about what the end game may truly be.

For example, as many of you know, I work in the diamond and jewellery industry.  Many jewelers in the US, small and large, were able to perform well in recent years, despite headwinds, cause they applied enough pressure to force big diamond companies into allowing what they call "memo" goods.  Basically you'll get diamonds sent to the store on memo, if they sell, you buy them, if they don't you send them back.  Gives a lot more flexibility with regards to not having big upfront investment for smaller stores or for chains who deal in hundreds of millions in inventory.  That doesn't work if you're paying a tariff on those goods coming in before they are sold.

The next I can speak to very directly.  First, simply, the US does a lot of trade show business in the industry.  People ship millions upon millions of diamonds in to show and sell at shows.  That's obviously a massively different game if you need to pay tariffs on all that you're bringing in...without having sold it. 

But secondly, there is a HUGE business in the US in services.  GIA, IGI, other labs doing the grading and certification on most diamonds.  Other companies, like us, provide other services from engraving of stones, to data collection, etc... which involves diamonds being sent from abroad to offices in the US.  How do you do that with tariffs?  The template we saw the last few years with China.  Lab grown diamonds from China came to the US for grading or engraving by us.  They were subject to tariffs due to the new China tariffs instituted before COVID.  We used a TIB (Temporary Import on Bond).  Basically paid a few hundred per shipment and bypassed the tariff duty, provided the goods were then exported with the same logistics provider and in one shipment (within a year).  So you'd think that would happen here, for all the situations above...but as of now a few sources have told me that TIB is not available as of now. 

So how that moves around in the next week will be VERY illuminating.  Cause that isn't a "oh costs will go up and need to be passed on" situation...its a non starter complete killer.  You can't deal with even a 10% tariff on a couple million dollars worth of diamonds when you're doing a few grand worth of work on them.  I would think the particulars get ironed out quickly but who knows