Investing Thread

[rocky_warrior]

I reached out my arms to catch some falling knives this morning.  I'm a little bloody, but like you, expect those buys will eventually look good.  Or not...

Whoa, those wounds healed quickly (for now).

[The Sultan]

Whoa, those wounds healed quickly (for now).

And now its back down. Apparently the short run was in response to this Tweet, which ended up to not be accurate.

https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1909248236142866827

[rocky_warrior]

And now its back down.

Yeah, people are crazy   Technically my earlier S&P buys are still up, but not 5%!

I might be wrong, and I still expect some very meh earnings reports the next couple quarters, but getting a 20+% discount on the S&P doesn't happen often.

[MU82]

Insanity out there, which tracks given everything.

[JWags85]

Insanity out there, which tracks given everything.

But yet nothing nearly as doomsday as newly minted stock market experts or charlatans like Jim Cramer were shouting about this weekend.  Didn't even hit a limit down.

Don't get me wrong, its ugly and completely self inflicted, but its just a lesson in hysteria and overreactions, largely from people who have no clue what they are talking about or whose livelihood is based on creating clicks or chatter.  I didn't expect a limit down, but I wouldn't have been shocked.  But people calling for another Black Monday or thinking a double digit drop was a certainty were just telling on themselves.

Should be a very interesting and volatility filled week.

[tower912]

There will be a bottom.  Eventually the market will adjust to this new reality.  It always does. 

[MU82]

But yet nothing nearly as doomsday as newly minted stock market experts or charlatans like Jim Cramer were shouting about this weekend.  Didn't even hit a limit down.

Don't get me wrong, its ugly and completely self inflicted, but its just a lesson in hysteria and overreactions, largely from people who have no clue what they are talking about or whose livelihood is based on creating clicks or chatter.  I didn't expect a limit down, but I wouldn't have been shocked.  But people calling for another Black Monday or thinking a double digit drop was a certainty were just telling on themselves.

Should be a very interesting and volatility filled week.

This just in: Everything is bigger and more hyped now than it used to be because of instant reactions and social media.

And yes, the insanity is ugly and self-inflicted.

I do have a few limit orders out there again, which reflects my own insanity. A couple got close to hitting when the market free-fell to start the session, but then came the whipsaw. It's just good, clean fun. 

[rocky_warrior]

Should be a very interesting and volatility filled week.

Other than a little reading, I ignored media on the market this weekend.  However, I did always have S&P @ 5000 as a target for buys. 

If I didn't have a goal of buying more, this would have been a good couple weeks to ignore market!

[Uncle Rico]

This better not effect my trip to Bandon cuz I'd be playing Pacific Dunes a year from now and I'll be very mad if I can't

[GB Warrior]

My first professor led off his first class with the "May you live interesting times" quote. I would like to make clear I do not wish to do that.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yeah, people are crazy   Technically my earlier S&P buys are still up, but not 5%!

I might be wrong, and I still expect some very meh earnings reports the next couple quarters, but getting a 20+% discount on the S&P doesn't happen often.

Looking at fundamentals? Ha, you crazy kid.

My concern is that we are seeing more and more earnings revisions to the downside, and that was before tariffgedon.

As I said last Thursday, I don't think it is time to bottom fish yet, but that's just me.

[rocky_warrior]

As I said last Thursday, I don't think it is time to bottom fish yet, but that's just me.

Sure, who knows what that will be, but I got a better "deal" than buying last Monday!

I've also got more days (and dollars) to fish should the situation arise.

[Jockey]

This just in: Everything is bigger and more hyped now than it used to be because of instant reactions and social media.

And yes, the insanity is ugly and self-inflicted.

I do have a few limit orders out there again, which reflects my own insanity. A couple got close to hitting when the market free-fell to start the session, but then came the whipsaw. It's just good, clean fun.

People about to retire are having a blast. Time of their lives.

[Jockey]

Other than a little reading, I ignored media on the market this weekend.  However, I did always have S&P @ 5000 as a target for buys. 

If I didn't have a goal of buying more, this would have been a good couple weeks to ignore market!

I think that is a big problem for tens of millions. Most retirees aren't actively buying. They just took big losses and it will be a slow process just getting back to even.

[MU82]

As I said last Thursday, I don't think it is time to bottom fish yet, but that's just me.

I've just dipped a line in a little bit and hooked a few fish, some of which have lost weight since I hooked them. I'm nowhere near dropping a net to bring in a big haul.

[MU82]

"Which system is gonna be hurt the most when you jab a fork into a light socket? I don't really know. That's why we don't force forks into light sockets, traditionally."

- Michael Madowitz, principal economist at the Roosevelt Institute.

[NCMUFan]

Your posts get me so confused - Light Sockets?  Fishing?

[100AcreNation]

Your posts get me so confused - Light Sockets?  Fishing?

AI not yielding any helpful results on this one?

[cheebs09]

AI not yielding any helpful results on this one?

Too busy calculating the next round of tariffs.

[rocky_warrior]

I think that is a big problem for tens of millions. Most retirees aren't actively buying. They just took big losses and it will be a slow process just getting back to even.

I suppose if those people looked at their balances on Feb 19 and said "Whoohoo, I finally have enough" I agree.  I track my "expected" savings/investing balances pretty meticulously, assuming *very* reasonable gains/interest rates.  After the past couple years of fantastic returns, the balances were about 18 months ahead of schedule.    That's been knocked down quite a bit, but even now the balances are still a few months ahead of schedule. 

Point is, if you've been in the game long enough (as most retirees should have been), this isn't totally unexpected.  The magnitude is however, self inflicted and likely could have been avoided.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I've just dipped a line in a little bit and hooked a few fish, some of which have lost weight since I hooked them. I'm nowhere near dropping a net to bring in a big haul.

F the nets, go with dynamite.

[MU82]

Made only one small buy today, as the downs and ups were too wild to get a feel for. We'll see what fun and adventure Mr. Market offers tomorrow.

[rocky_warrior]

Bastards gaming the system! Clearly we should all pay for this!
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce84jr5mvnno.amp

It's difficult to get a clear picture on the imports from the Heard and McDonald islands to the US.

According to export data from the World Bank, the islands have, over the past few years, usually exported a small amount of products to the US.

It peaked in 2022, when the US imported US$1.4m (A$2.3m; £1.1m) from the territory, nearly all of it unnamed "machinery and electrical" products.

Also included on Trump's list was the British Indian Ocean territory, which is solely occupied by military personnel and requires a permit to visit. World Bank export data shows the territory exported US$414,350 to the US in 2022.

[rocky_warrior]

I reached out my arms to catch some falling knives this morning.  I'm a little bloody, but like you, expect those buys will eventually look good.  Or not...

I should mention... Futures looking good for tomorrow... Maybe too early to celebrate...

[muwarrior69]

My investments in the market are for my granddaughter and for the long haul. The S&P would have to drop to 2500 for me to lose money. Not saying that could not happen but even if it did the market always recovers just like it has from 2008. I have a 6-figure rainy day fund for major repairs or replacements. Our retirement income is not tied to the market. Between SS our pensions and our 401k distributions our income is over 120k after taxes. So, we are doing OK even here in high-cost New Jersey. Don't take this politically and it may be impossible not to, but if the new tax bill exempts SS from income taxes that will be a big help for us.