Investing Thread

[jesmu84]

https://www.ft.com/content/901a7a75-2f68-4abd-9ec2-246a3d9b3105

We sure the market is grounded in objective fundamentals?

[Uncle Rico]

https://www.ft.com/content/901a7a75-2f68-4abd-9ec2-246a3d9b3105

We sure the market is grounded in objective fundamentals?

Are you saying steady leadership helps the market?

[NCMUFan]

Ready for Lazarus Tuesday?

[rocky_warrior]

Ready for Lazarus Tuesday?

Aren't we all? I mean a potential 2% gain totally makes up for the idiocy.

But AI tells me those penguins have been leeching off the US for too long!

[NCMUFan]

Leeching Penguins?

[Uncle Rico]

Aren't we all? I mean a potential 2% gain totally makes up for the idiocy.

But AI tells me those penguins have been leeching off the US for too long!

Price increases for the American consumer are still coming very soon.  Some might call it a tax.

[NCMUFan]

Some might.

[Uncle Rico]

Some might.

That's what a tariff is, a tax on the consumer.  Higher prices on goods are the price to pay for the average American citizen for bad economic policy.

But like I say, just be rich

[jesmu84]

A $1 trillion defense budget is kinda like stimulus, right?

Btw, where my debt/deficit hawks at?

[rocky_warrior]

Leeching Penguins?

Yeah, those bastards have had a trade deficit with the US for too long.  They'll pay, you'll see...

You change your portfolio at all the past few days?

[Skatastrophy]

Dead cat bounce

[rocky_warrior]

Dead cat bounce

I've seen that and "bull trap", but honestly I think we generally just hang in this range until earnings start rolling in.  Not that the market is "fair", but we got a ~20% haircut, which probably is the average economic effect of the tariffs.  Now we just have to wait and see how it all shakes out. 

[Skatastrophy]

I've seen that and "bull trap", but honestly I think we generally just hang in this range until earnings start rolling in.  Not that the market is "fair", but we got a ~20% haircut, which probably is the average economic effect of the tariffs.  Now we just have to wait and see how it all shakes out. 

I think we're in the middle of escalations around this, not near the end. I expect that to cause more panic.

But honestly, what do I know? I'm terrible at predicting people's emotional reactions to things like this. People get used to new, terrible situations much more quickly than I expect them to. Mr market is irrational, after all.

[NCMUFan]

That's what a tariff is, a tax on the consumer.  Higher prices on goods are the price to pay for the average American citizen for bad economic policy.

But like I say, just be rich

Guess you would know.  Crying about how the tariffs might affect his golf vacation to the west coast.

[MU82]

Some might.

"Tariffs are simply taxes. Tariffs don't punish foreign governments. They punish American families." - Rand Paul

"This is the largest peace-time tax hike in U.S. history." - Mike Pence

"Who would have thought that Trump was actually the most high-tax American president in generations. Through his tariff strategy, Trump has implemented a structural, permanent tax on the American consumer." - Kimbal Musk

[The Sultan]

There are of course room for tariffs as part of an industrial policy. Famously Harley-Davidson would have likelyl gone bankrupt without the tariff on heavy motorcyles in the early 80s. But that was never about making money for the government - it was about making Japanese cycles more expensive. So yes, they make the consumer pay more. It's a tax not directly paid by the consumer, but very much indirectly paid.

[MU82]

Stock prices coming down. As I write this, gains in the major indexes are less than half of what they were a couple hours ago.

[Uncle Rico]

Stock prices coming down. As I write this, gains in the major indexes are less than half of what they were a couple hours ago.

Poof

104% tariffs on China will do that.  Guess that's why we need a trillion dollar military budget, for the forthcoming war

[muwarrior69]

Price increases for the American consumer are still coming very soon.  Some might call it a tax.

It is a tax albeit an indirect tax. It all depends if the foreign company levied the tariff passes that cost down to consumer. By doing so makes their product becomes less competitive in the US market. It is a balancing game. Eat part or all the tax to maintain sales or pass the tax on to the consumer with far less sales. I am not so sure if you are in the market to buy a new car you are willing to pay 25% more due to the tax or by just as good of car not subject to the tax. No doubt Trump is raising taxes but I think that is better than borrowing more money we don't have to fund the government.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yeah, those bastards have had a trade deficit with the US for too long.  They'll pay, you'll see...

You change your portfolio at all the past few days?

No changes here. I was hoping it would be an up day and I could find a few things to sell to move to cash, but the market doesn't seem to be cooperating. I still would not add money here as we have wild swings based on the hourly mutterings of an imbecile.

I was, however, trying to find the exchange for the Heard and McDonald Islands so I could short those f'ing penguins.

[Pakuni]

There are of course room for tariffs as part of an industrial policy. Famously Harley-Davidson would have likelyl gone bankrupt without the tariff on heavy motorcyles in the early 80s. But that was never about making money for the government - it was about making Japanese cycles more expensive. So yes, they make the consumer pay more. It's a tax not directly paid by the consumer, but very much indirectly paid.

It's also worth noting that Harley used those tariffs as an opportunity to raise its prices, so that motorcycle buyers paid more regardless of the bike they chose.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

It is a tax albeit an indirect tax. It all depends if the foreign company levied the tariff passes that cost down to consumer. By doing so makes their product becomes less competitive in the US market. It is a balancing game. Eat part or all the tax to maintain sales or pass the tax on to the consumer with far less sales. I am not so sure if you are in the market to buy a new car you are willing to pay 25% more due to the tax or by just as good of car not subject to the tax. No doubt Trump is raising taxes but I think that is better than borrowing more money we don't have to fund the government.

So about that $5.6T additional deficit from the proposed tax cut..

[Pakuni]

It is a tax albeit an indirect tax. It all depends if the foreign company levied the tariff passes that cost down to consumer. By doing so makes their product becomes less competitive in the US market. It is a balancing game. Eat part or all the tax to maintain sales or pass the tax on to the consumer with far less sales. I am not so sure if you are in the market to buy a new car you are willing to pay 25% more due to the tax or by just as good of car not subject to the tax. No doubt Trump is raising taxes but I think that is better than borrowing more money we don't have to fund the government.

1. As noted below with the Harley example, there's no reason to think American manufacturers won't raise their prices as well. That's how markets work.
2. Good luck finding a vehicle or many other products unaffected by these tariffs. Even if the product is assembled in the U.S., it's highly likely that components or raw materials are coming from abroad.
3. The solution to government overspending is a regressive tax that weakens the economy?

[Uncle Rico]

So about that $5.6T additional deficit from the proposed tax cut..

People are grasping at straws at the moment to justify the stupidity of extreme trade wars.

[The Sultan]

3. The solution to government overspending is a regressive tax that weakens the economy?

Right. In the long run, this is going to cost the government revenue.