Investing Thread

[Skatastrophy]

And... The Atlanta Fed is forecasting a GDP pop in Q4

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

"Yeah but how accurate has the GDP Now forecast been?"

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UZmF

I realize I'm wrong a lot, but I'm rarely wrong this quickly. Here's to hoping!

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I think the end of the market pullback is essentially already here.  We dipped a little below the July June lows (but not much), appear to be rebounding.  Perhaps, most important, Jobs & Consumers seem stable, energy prices are getting lower (globally), and there's a chance Putin won't launch nukes.

But that's the wildcard...not just Putin but the global economic environment.  And honestly, the past month I haven't been paying attention globally other than to know England is being run by a bunch of idiots.  Hopefully they get their sh*t straight.

My Financial Adviser echoed the same thing the end of August.  September & October are always historically the bottom of the stock market and it begins a slow climb out and up in November (typically right after election day).

[MU82]

Huge earnings day today for investors, and some interesting news on the overall economy ...

In addition to the fallout from yesterday's after-hours reports (META is down freakin' 23%!), those reporting today include MO, HON, CAT, MCD, MA, MRK, CMCSA, TROW and NOC before the bell, and AAPL, AMZN, GILD, INTC, LHX and TMUS after the close.

So far ...

MRK had a nice beat and looks ready to hit $100 for the first time ever. CAT with an impressive quarter is up big pre-market. MO with a double miss and tightened guidance is down 2%. CMCSA had a double beat and is up 6%. MCD impressed as usual and is up 2%. HON is up 5% after a great beat and raise. MA's growth wasn't quite as robust as V announced on Tue and MA is down 2%. NOC is down 5% after earnings miss. TROW saw AUM drop pretty significantly but isn't getting punished too badly pre-market.

Meanwhile, GDP grew 2.6%, better than expected and a signal that, if we were in a recession, we perhaps no longer are. And PCE price index fell to 4.2%, which some economists consider good news. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Strangest "recession" ever, with all the conflicting data points.

I have/had a buy list waiting, but so far the market bounced back up before I pulled the trigger except for one.

[Lennys Tap]

I have/had a buy list waiting, but so far the market bounced back up before I pulled the trigger except for one.

Be patient - you'll probably get another chance.

[Skatastrophy]

Be patient - you'll probably get another chance.

Like with AMZN right now, holy heck

Edit: Looks like they came back up a bit. They were down ~18% right after earnings

[MuggsyB]

Like with AMZN right now, holy heck

Edit: Looks like they came back up a bit. They were down ~18% right after earnings

They could be down 50% for the year by tomorrow.  Should I buy a chunk before the end of the year? 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Took a small position in Twitter this afternoon. Removing Jack Dorsey is a potential upside catalyst IMO.

Well, I made 30% on this one, 45% annualized...just not at all how I pictured it happening. Thanks, Elon, for your maniacal ego and hubris. And your cash, of course.

[Skatastrophy]

They could be down 50% for the year by tomorrow.  Should I buy a chunk before the end of the year? 

I hold plenty of amazon for my tastes just through index funds. If you want to be overweight amazon though? Yep.

Nothing has fundamentally changed with their business model, so if your time horizon is long picking up "cheap" AMZN is a good idea.

[MuggsyB]

I hold plenty of amazon for my tastes just through index funds. If you want to be overweight amazon though? Yep.

Nothing has fundamentally changed with their business model, so if your time horizon is long picking up "cheap" AMZN is a good idea.

Ty Skata.

[forgetful]

I hold plenty of amazon for my tastes just through index funds. If you want to be overweight amazon though? Yep.

Nothing has fundamentally changed with their business model, so if your time horizon is long picking up "cheap" AMZN is a good idea.

Well, they do have a PE ratio of 99, so not sure it counts as cheap.

[Skatastrophy]

Well, they do have a PE ratio of 99, so not sure it counts as cheap.

Amazon regularly has negative net profit quarters because it's investing so heavily in growth. PE ratio isn't the best measure for companies that are aggressively growing and are intentionally keeping their EPS near 0.

If Amazon is cheap or not right now? Idk. Their PS ratio is nearing 2, which is lowest since 2016.

[Uncle Rico]

Dumped all my savings into DWAC last February.  Looking for big things

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Dumped all my savings into DWAC last February.  Looking for big things

Many people are saying it will be an investment like no has ever seen.  Tremendous opportunity, believe me. Your portfolio will have so much winning. You'll be saying 'please, please, it's too much winning. We can't take it anymore'. Just the other day a VC guy came up to me, a big tough guy, with tears in his eyes, and said, 'Sir, this is the greatest investment ever. Thank you'.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Apple being Apple

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Beat. Raise. Repeat.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cvs-health-stock-jumps-5-premarket-after-earnings-beat-opioid-settlement-2022-11-02?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

[MU82]

Beat. Raise. Repeat.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cvs-health-stock-jumps-5-premarket-after-earnings-beat-opioid-settlement-2022-11-02?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Got an opportunity to add a little to CVS a few weeks back on the combination of Aetna experiencing some problems and an alleged potential deal for Cano Health. Mr. Market hated both those things and price fell from 100 to 88 over the course of a couple sessions.

But CVS has remade itself into such a solid health-care conglomerate, as today's earnings report and guidance demonstrated again.

[Hards Alumni]

AAPL pausing hiring through 2023

[MU82]

Will be interesting to see how market reacts to Fed rate and then to Powell's comments.

[rocky_warrior]

Will be interesting to see how market reacts to Fed rate and then to Powell's comments.

Rate should already be priced in.  Comments will affect future "pricing".  I expect the comments will essentially say that they think they're on the right path, and seeing signs their actions being effective, but will require more data and careful examination in their next meeting. 

[MU82]

Rate should already be priced in.  Comments will affect future "pricing".  I expect the comments will essentially say that they think they're on the right path, and seeing signs their actions being effective, but will require more data and careful examination in their next meeting. 

If it's .75, yes it's priced in.

Powell has had a knack for saying things that Mr. Market hasn't always loved. We'll see shortly!

[jesmu84]

My online savings account has gone from 0.7% to 2.5% in less than a year

[Skatastrophy]

My online savings account has gone from 0.7% to 2.5% in less than a year

Instead of losing 2-3% due to inflation, now you have the opportunity to lose 5-6%.

[MU82]

Market went up about 1% initially after the rate increase announcement. But Powell saying twice in his press conference that there's more work to be done regarding future hikes apparently spooked Mr. Market some. It's now down about 1%. It had been down about .3% before the rate announcement.

[MuggsyB]

I suppose this was a very predictable market reaction.